TIN206 - Pengetahuan Lingkungan
Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
Global Warming Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?
Sumber: Rich Deem, www.GodAndScience.org
Materi #10 – TIN206 – Pengetahuan Lingkungan
Introduction • Is the world getting warmer? • If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earth’s temperature increases?
• What can/should be done about these issues? • Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them? Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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History of Earth’s Climate • Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago • Originally very hot • Sun’s energy output only 70% of present • Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating) • Much of earth’s early history erased during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago) Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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History of Earth’s Climate • Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago • Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years ago Produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases) Earth went through periods of cooling (“Snowball Earth”) and warming • Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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Earth’s Temperature Solar Energy Solar
Sun
Energy
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Earth’s Temperature Sun
Solar Energy
Radiative Cooling
6
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Earth’s Temperature Sun
Solar Energy
Radiative Cooling
7
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Earth’s Temperature Sun Solar Energy
Radiative Cooling
8
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Greenhouse Effect
Sun
9
Earth’s Atmospheric Gases Nitrogen (N2) Oxygen (O2)
NonGreenhouse 99% Gases
Water (H2O) Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Greenhouse 1% Gases
Methane (CH4) Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016 TIN206 - Pengetahuan Lingkungan
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Sun
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Runaway Greenhouse Effect
• 97% carbon dioxide • 3% nitrogen • Water & sulfuric acid clouds • Temperature: 860°F
Venus
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Carbon Dioxide
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Carbon Dioxide Levels
370 CO2 (ppm)
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CO2 (ppm)
420
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Muana Loa Readings CO2 Levels Since 1958 370 350 330 310 40 30 20 10 0
270 220 Dome Concordia
170 600000
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Vostok Ice Core
400000 200000 Time (YBP)
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14
Carbon (109 metric tons)
Worldwide Carbon Emissions 8 7 6 5
Total Liquid fuel Solid fuel Gas fuel
4 3 2 1 0 1750
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1850 1900 Year
1950
2000
7
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Annual Carbon Emissions
8
Carbon (109 metric tons)
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Annual carbon emissions Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CO2 average
6
4
2
0 1955
1965
1975 1985 Year
1995
2005
Future Carbon Dioxide Levels • Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries • Likely to double within 150 years:
Increased coal usage Increased natural gas usage Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply) Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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Kyoto Protocol • Adopted in 1997 • Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012 • Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming
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Past Temperatures
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Recorded Worldwide Temperatures
0.8 D Mean Temperature (°C)
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0.6 0.4
Decreasing Flat
0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
-0.6 1880
1900
1920
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1940 Year
1960
1980
2000
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Historic Los Angeles Temperatures
Temperature (°C)
Annual Temperatures
Summer Temperatures
Winter Temperatures
22
25
17
21
24
16
20
23
15
19
22
14
18
21
13
17
20
12
16
19
11
15 18 10 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
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Year
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2007 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
-3
-2.5 -1.5
-1
-.5
-.1
.1
.5
1
1.5
21
2.5
3.4
Past Temperatures Measurement • Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature) Ice cores Pollen records Plant macrofossils Sr/Ca isotope data Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites) Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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Temperature History of the Earth • Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler • Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C warmer than today • Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years • Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic • Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation • Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic
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Main Ocean Currents
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2
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Temperature History of the Earth • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods
• These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earth’s orbit – precession, obliquity, and eccentricity Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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Orbital Parameters: Precession
Apehelion Perihelion
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Orbital Parameters: Obliquity 24.5° 22.5°
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Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity Maximum: 0.061 Minimum: 0.005
Apehelion Apehelion
Perihelion
NotScale! To to scale!
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Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate Precession (22 ky) Obliquity (41 ky) Eccentricity (100 ky)
Temperature
1000900800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods • Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years ago Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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-25
-30 Temperature (°C)
0.35
Younger Dryas
0.30
Medieval Warm
-35 -40 Ice Age
0.25
Little Ice Age 0.20
-45
0.15
-50
0.10
-55 20
15
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10 Age (kya)
0.05 0
5
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Snow Accumulation (m/yr)
Younger Dryas Event
32
-8.0
Younger Dryas
-7.5 d18O (China)
-7.0 -6.5 -6.0 -5.5
-5.0 -4.5 -4.0 16
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13 12 Age (kya)
-34 -35 -36 -37 -38 -39 -40 -41 -42 -43 -44 11 10
d18O (Greenland)
Younger Dryas Event
16
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Temperature History of the Earth Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya) • Temperatures: 2°C higher than today. 20°C higher at high latitudes 1°C higher at the Equator
• Sea levels were 100 ft higher • Causes CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher Increased thermohaline circulation Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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Temperature History of the Earth Eocene (41 million years ago) • Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica). • Increased ocean current exchange Strong global cooling First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago
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Temperature History of the Earth Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya) • Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C • Causes Increased volcanism Rapid release of methane from the oceans
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Temperature History of the Earth Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya) • Much warmer • Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland • Causes Different ocean currents (continental arrangement) higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm) Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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Recent Temperature Changes
Temperature Change (°C)
“Hockey Stick” Controversey 0.6 0.4
Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999
0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4
-0.6 -0.8 1000
1200
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1800
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Is the Hockey Stick Correct? Temperature Change (°C)
2 Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002
1 0 -1 -2 800
1000
1200
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1400 Year
1600
1800
2000
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Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
Temperature Change (°C)
0.4 0.2
0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 Moberg et al. 2005 Mann et al. 2008
-0.8 -1.0 -1.2
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400
800 1200 Year
1600
2000
20
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Temperature Change (°C)
U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006 0.6 “2:1 chance of being right”
0.4
“high level of confidence”
0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000
1200
1400 1600 Year
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1800
2000
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Atmospheric Temperatures Temperature Cgange (°C)
0.8
Troposphere
0.6
1.5
Stratosphere
1.0
0.4 0.2
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.2 -0.5
-0.4
-0.6 1980
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2000
-1.0 1980
1990 Year
2000
21
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CO2 (ppm) Antarctica
370 320 270 220 170
600000
400000 200000 Time (YBP)
31 30 29 28 27 26 025
SST (°C) Tropical Pacific
CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature
Consequences of Global Warming
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Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere Temperature Change (°C)
1.0 0.8 0.6
Northern vs. Southern Latitude
Land vs. Ocean Land Ocean
Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere
0.4 0.2
0.0 -0.2
-0.4 -0.6
1920
1960 Year
2000
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1960 Year
2000
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2007 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
-3
-2.5 -1.5
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-.5
-.1
.1
.5
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1.5
2.5
46
3.4
23
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Ice Sheets Melting? • GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century) • Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry) confirmed Antarctica melting Greenland ice melting on exterior, accumulating inland (higher precipitation)
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Melting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro
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Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass 1000 Ice Mass (km3)
800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600
2003
2004 Year
2005
Rise in Sea Levels? • Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) • Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2 • If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise • Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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Changing Sea Levels Relative Sea Level (cm)
Global Temperature Change
20 10 0
-10 -20 1700
Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
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20
31
0
30
-20
29
-40
28
-60 -80
27
-100
26
-120
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
0
25
SST (°C) Tropical Pacific
Sea Level (m)
Sea Levels for 450,000 Years
Time (KYBP)
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Increase in Hurricanes? SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)
15
Data Unreliable • Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed 10 • However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones) •5Probably due to higher sea surface August-October temperatures (more Scaled energy) Sea-Surface Temperature Adjusted Atlantic • Difficult to know if this trend will Storm Power Dissipation Index 0continue
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
How Much Temperature Increase? • Some models propose up to 9°C increase this century • Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C • Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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Wildlife Effects • Polar Bears Require pack ice to live Might eventually go extinct in the wild • Sea turtles Breed on the same islands as their birth Could go extinct on some islands as beaches are flooded • Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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Effect on Humans • Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat • Decreased thermohaline circulation Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic
• CO2 fertilization effect • Precipitation changes Droughts and famine (some areas) Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes
-50
-20
-10
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5
10
20
50
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Drought in Africa Lake Faguibine
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Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)
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1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
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Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations
450
550 650 Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
750
Possible Solutions to Global Warming
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Mitigation of Global Warming • Conservation Reduce energy needs Recycling
• Alternate energy sources
Nuclear Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric Solar Fusion?
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Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations 1. 2. 3. 4.
Depleted oil and gas reservoirs CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
3b 3a
1
4
2
Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7
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Conclusions • Global warming is happening • Most warming is probably the result of human activities • There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming • The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere? Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016
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