2016. Global Warming. Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?

TIN206 - Pengetahuan Lingkungan

Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016

Global Warming Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?

Sumber: Rich Deem, www.GodAndScience.org

Materi #10 – TIN206 – Pengetahuan Lingkungan

Introduction • Is the world getting warmer? • If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earth’s temperature increases?

• What can/should be done about these issues? • Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them? Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016

6623 - Taufiqur Rachman


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History of Earth’s Climate • Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago • Originally very hot • Sun’s energy output only 70% of present • Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating) • Much of earth’s early history erased during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago) Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016


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History of Earth’s Climate • Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago • Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years ago  Produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)  Earth went through periods of cooling (“Snowball Earth”) and warming • Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016



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Earth’s Temperature Solar Energy Solar

Sun

Energy

Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016 TIN206 - Pengetahuan Lingkungan


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Earth’s Temperature Sun

Solar Energy

Radiative Cooling

6


3





Earth’s Temperature Sun

Solar Energy

Radiative Cooling

7



Earth’s Temperature Sun Solar Energy

Radiative Cooling

8


4





Greenhouse Effect

Sun

9

Earth’s Atmospheric Gases Nitrogen (N2) Oxygen (O2)

NonGreenhouse 99% Gases

Water (H2O) Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Greenhouse 1% Gases

Methane (CH4) Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016 TIN206 - Pengetahuan Lingkungan


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5


Sun


Runaway Greenhouse Effect

• 97% carbon dioxide • 3% nitrogen • Water & sulfuric acid clouds • Temperature: 860°F

Venus

Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016 TIN206 - Pengetahuan Lingkungan

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Carbon Dioxide


6



13

Carbon Dioxide Levels

370 CO2 (ppm)


CO2 (ppm)

420


320

Muana Loa Readings CO2 Levels Since 1958 370 350 330 310 40 30 20 10 0

270 220 Dome Concordia

170 600000


Vostok Ice Core

400000 200000 Time (YBP)


0

14

Carbon (109 metric tons)

Worldwide Carbon Emissions 8 7 6 5

Total Liquid fuel Solid fuel Gas fuel

4 3 2 1 0 1750


1800

1850 1900 Year

1950

2000

7




15

Annual Carbon Emissions

8

Carbon (109 metric tons)


Annual carbon emissions Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CO2 average

6

4

2

0 1955

1965

1975 1985 Year

1995

2005

Future Carbon Dioxide Levels • Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries • Likely to double within 150 years:

 Increased coal usage  Increased natural gas usage  Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply) Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016



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Kyoto Protocol • Adopted in 1997 • Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012 • Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming



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Past Temperatures


9




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Recorded Worldwide Temperatures

0.8 D Mean Temperature (°C)


0.6 0.4

Decreasing Flat

0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4

-0.6 1880

1900

1920


1940 Year

1960

1980

2000


20

Historic Los Angeles Temperatures

Temperature (°C)

Annual Temperatures

Summer Temperatures

Winter Temperatures

22

25

17

21

24

16

20

23

15

19

22

14

18

21

13

17

20

12

16

19

11

15 18 10 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year


Year

Year

10





2007 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-3

-2.5 -1.5

-1

-.5

-.1

.1

.5

1

1.5

21

2.5

3.4

Past Temperatures Measurement • Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)  Ice cores  Pollen records  Plant macrofossils  Sr/Ca isotope data  Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites) Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016



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Temperature History of the Earth • Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler • Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C warmer than today • Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years • Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic • Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation  • Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic



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Main Ocean Currents

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2


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Temperature History of the Earth • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods

• These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earth’s orbit – precession, obliquity, and eccentricity Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016




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Orbital Parameters: Precession

Apehelion Perihelion


13





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Orbital Parameters: Obliquity 24.5° 22.5°



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Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity Maximum: 0.061 Minimum: 0.005

Apehelion Apehelion

Perihelion

NotScale! To to scale!


14





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Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate Precession (22 ky) Obliquity (41 ky) Eccentricity (100 ky)

Temperature

1000900800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Age (kya)

Temperature History of the Earth • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods • Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years ago Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016



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15





31

-25

-30 Temperature (°C)

0.35

Younger Dryas

0.30

Medieval Warm

-35 -40 Ice Age

0.25

Little Ice Age 0.20

-45

0.15

-50

0.10

-55 20

15


10 Age (kya)

0.05 0

5


Snow Accumulation (m/yr)

Younger Dryas Event

32

-8.0

Younger Dryas

-7.5 d18O (China)

-7.0 -6.5 -6.0 -5.5

-5.0 -4.5 -4.0 16


15 14

13 12 Age (kya)

-34 -35 -36 -37 -38 -39 -40 -41 -42 -43 -44 11 10

d18O (Greenland)

Younger Dryas Event

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Temperature History of the Earth Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya) • Temperatures: 2°C higher than today.  20°C higher at high latitudes  1°C higher at the Equator

• Sea levels were 100 ft higher • Causes  CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher  Increased thermohaline circulation Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016


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Temperature History of the Earth Eocene (41 million years ago) • Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica). • Increased ocean current exchange  Strong global cooling  First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago




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Temperature History of the Earth Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya) • Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C • Causes  Increased volcanism  Rapid release of methane from the oceans



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Temperature History of the Earth Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya) • Much warmer • Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland • Causes  Different ocean currents (continental arrangement)  higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm) Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016



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Recent Temperature Changes

Temperature Change (°C)

“Hockey Stick” Controversey 0.6 0.4

Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999

0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4

-0.6 -0.8 1000

1200



1400 1600 Year

1800


2000 38

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Is the Hockey Stick Correct? Temperature Change (°C)

2 Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002

1 0 -1 -2 800

1000

1200



1400 Year

1600

1800

2000


39


40

Is the Hockey Stick Correct?


0.4 0.2

0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 Moberg et al. 2005 Mann et al. 2008

-0.8 -1.0 -1.2


0

400

800 1200 Year

1600

2000

20





41


U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006 0.6 “2:1 chance of being right”

0.4

“high level of confidence”

0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000

1200

1400 1600 Year


1800

2000


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Atmospheric Temperatures Temperature Cgange (°C)

0.8

Troposphere

0.6

1.5

Stratosphere

1.0

0.4 0.2

0.5

0.0

0.0

-0.2 -0.5

-0.4

-0.6 1980


1990 Year

2000

-1.0 1980

1990 Year

2000

21





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CO2 (ppm) Antarctica

370 320 270 220 170

600000

400000 200000 Time (YBP)

31 30 29 28 27 26 025

SST (°C) Tropical Pacific

CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature

Consequences of Global Warming


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Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere Temperature Change (°C)

1.0 0.8 0.6

Northern vs. Southern Latitude

Land vs. Ocean Land Ocean

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

0.4 0.2

0.0 -0.2

-0.4 -0.6

1920

1960 Year

2000


1920

1960 Year

2000



45


2007 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-3

-2.5 -1.5


-1

-.5

-.1

.1

.5

1

1.5

2.5

46

3.4

23





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Ice Sheets Melting? • GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century) • Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry)  confirmed Antarctica melting  Greenland ice melting on exterior, accumulating inland (higher precipitation)



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Melting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro


24





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Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass 1000 Ice Mass (km3)

800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600

2003

2004 Year

2005

Rise in Sea Levels? • Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) • Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2 • If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise • Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016



50

25





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Changing Sea Levels Relative Sea Level (cm)

Global Temperature Change

20 10 0

-10 -20 1700

Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5



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20

31

0

30

-20

29

-40

28

-60 -80

27

-100

26

-120

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

0

25

SST (°C) Tropical Pacific

Sea Level (m)

Sea Levels for 450,000 Years

Time (KYBP)


26





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Increase in Hurricanes? SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)

15

Data Unreliable • Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed 10 • However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones) •5Probably due to higher sea surface August-October temperatures (more Scaled energy) Sea-Surface Temperature Adjusted Atlantic • Difficult to know if this trend will Storm Power Dissipation Index 0continue

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

How Much Temperature Increase? • Some models propose up to 9°C increase this century • Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C • Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016



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Wildlife Effects • Polar Bears  Require pack ice to live  Might eventually go extinct in the wild • Sea turtles  Breed on the same islands as their birth  Could go extinct on some islands as beaches are flooded • Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016


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Effect on Humans • Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat • Decreased thermohaline circulation  Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic

• CO2 fertilization effect • Precipitation changes  Droughts and famine (some areas)  Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016



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Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes

-50

-20

-10


-5

5

10

20

50


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Drought in Africa Lake Faguibine


Lake Chad

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Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)


1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0


59

Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations

450

550 650 Carbon Dioxide (ppm)

750

Possible Solutions to Global Warming


30



Mitigation of Global Warming • Conservation  Reduce energy needs  Recycling

• Alternate energy sources      

Nuclear Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric Solar Fusion?



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Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations 1. 2. 3. 4.

Depleted oil and gas reservoirs CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery

3b 3a

1

4

2

Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7


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Conclusions • Global warming is happening • Most warming is probably the result of human activities • There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming • The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere? Materi #10 TIN206 Genap 2015/2016



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2016. Global Warming. Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?

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