DEVELOPING NICKEL BASED INDUSTRY R. Sukhyar Indonesia Smelter and Mineral Processing Association (ISPA)
3rd Asian Nickel Conference Jakarta 22 September 2015
C Isi CONTENT I. Background II. Current Condition III. Closing
All the minerals are present in Indonesia
Base Metals Cu, Zu, Ni, Al, Sn
Source: Manuel Regueiro Y Gonzalez-Barros Geological Survey of Spain Chief of External affairs, 2012
Declining share values of mining companies
Sejak Maret 2015, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan, termasuk saham-saham berbasis pertambangan dan komoditas, mengalami penurunan sebagai dampak dari penguatan Dolar Amerika Serikat (“DAS”) yang merupakan imbas dari persepsi penguatan perekonomian Amerika Serikat, defisit neraca berjalan dan anggaran Pemerintah Indonesia serta tingginya tingkat hutang Indonesia yang didominasi dalam DAS. Slide 4
Volatility of Ni and Au price, and PT Antam share
Selain risiko terkait market saham di Indonesia, harga saham ANTAM dibayang-bayangi juga oleh potensi penurunan harga komoditas nikel dan emas. Harga nikel mengalami penurunan menjadi US$4,3 akibat melemahnya permintaan seiring dengan penurunan perekonomian Tiongkok, selain itu harga emas masih memiliki potensi menurun seiring ditundanya keputusan untuk menaikkan suku bunga acuan oleh Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat. Slide 5
Despite recent underperformance, nickel has been one of the better performing industrial metals since the start of 2014 pct of Jan Price
160
Daily Nickel Price in 2013 and 2014 as a % of Jan 1 Price
pct of Jan 1 2014 Price
160
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
2014
Daily Commodity Price in 2014 as a % of Jan 1 Price
110
NICKEL ALUMINUM
100
100
90
90
ZINC
TIN COPPER
80
2013
70
70
60
60
50
50
Jan
Mar
May
Source: metalprices.com, Vale Analysis
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
LEAD
80
Jan
Mar
May
Source: metalprices.com, Vale Analysis
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Lifting of the ore export ban would likely remove the motivation for development in Indonesia
Indonesian ore stocks declined by >70% since the start of 2014
Source: Macquarie April 2015
Quarterly Chinese NPI Production (kt Ni) 145 130 120
135 125
116
115 106
78 74 49 36
38
1Q2010 Source: CRU August 2015
46
37
97 90 93 86
105 95
45
1Q2014
2Q2015
o Indonesian ore stockpiles have declined significantly since start of 2014 o Correspondingly, NPI Production has declined as well o Investment in Indonesia is largely premised in declining NPI production and the need for production to shift to Indonesia o The re-introduction of Indonesian ore removes this urgency
Metalogenic belt of Indonesia (simplified map)
Al Ni
Sn
Badan Geologi, 2012
Stage of Exploitation of mineral producing countries Maturity World class reserve: • Cu/Au (Grasberg dan Batu Hijau) • Au, beberapa KK • Nickel (PT. Inco & PT. Antam, IUPs) • Tin (PT. Timah) • Coal (PTBA dan PKPB Gen I)
100 90 80 Australia PNG
70 Indonesia
60 • Timah No. 2, produser, ekspor no 1 • Batubara No.1, eksportir • Tembaga No. 3, produser • Nikel No.3
50 40
West Africa Brazil Philippines Colombia CIS
Argentina Peru Mexico Chile
30
Extensions to Mines, New replacement
20 Exploration
10
South Africa United States Canada
Success Limited Mining
Project Development
Extensive New Mine
mines, Exploration
Sustained Exploration
Development &
Spending Moves
Take-over Activity
offshore
& Mining
0
Infant Stage
Mature Stage (H.L. Ong 2006)
Metals ini Ore Minerals in Indonesia 1. Ore minerals may contain more than important metals : - NI Laterite: main metals: Ni, Fe and associate metals: Co dan Cr. - Bauxite : Al, possible minor Ga dan Sc . - Tin ore : Sn and associate metals: W, Nb, Ta dan Sb, dan REE, U dan Th - Iron sands : Fe dan Ti serta minor V - Copper ore : Cu, Au, Ag, minor Pt, Pb, CuTe dan REE - Lead ore : Pb, Zn dan minor Ag dan Au 2. Technology selection is important in the extraction of the metals
Current status of Ni processing development 1. Refined Ni comes from - PT Vale - PT Aneka Tambang - PT Indoferro - PT Bintang Delapan - PT Cahaya Modern 2. Many others are in the progress of construction 3. Real Investment since the issuance of Law No 4/2009 counts for 2,4 billion dolars.
Current mining licenses in Indonesia P. SUMATERA KK : 10 PKP2B : 15 IUP logam : 1,500 IUP non logam&batuan : 545 IUP batubara : 992
P. KALIMANTAN (most Al, Au/Cu) KK : 9 PKP2B : 60 IUP logam : 737 IUP non logam&batuan : 414 IUP batubara : 2.687
P. SULAWESI (most Ni, Au/Cu) KK : 10 IUP logam : 1.076 IUP non logam &batuan : 393 IUP batubara : 106
Total IUP : 10.922
KEP.MALUKU KK : 2 IUP logam : 401 IUP non logam &batuan : 23 IUP batubara : 12
Al Ni P.JAWA KK : 1 IUP logam : 307 IUP non logam&batuan : 1,020 IUP batubara : 7
PKP2B = 75 KK = 41 IUP mineral logam = 4.474 IUP non logam & batuan = 2.526 IUP Batubara = 3.922 Sumber Data : Ditjen Minerba, 2014
P. BALI DAN NUSA TENGGARA KK : 2 IUP logam : 341 IUP non logam&batuan : 124 IUP batubara : 1
P. PAPUA (most Cu, Au) KK : 7 IUP logam : 112 IUP non logam &batuan : 7 IUP batubara : 119
IV. St
NO
PROGRES (%)
CAPAIAN KEGIATAN
JUMLAH IUP (Jan 2015)
JUMLAH IUP (Mar 2015)
JUMLAH IUP
1.
0–5
Progres mencapai Studi Kelayakan
97
97
NO
2.
6 – 10
Progres mencapai AMDAL
12
12
1.
Nikel
40
35
3.
11 - 30
Progres mencapai Ground Breaking dan Awal Konstruksi Pabrik
19
21
2.
Bauksit
10
7
3.
Besi
8
8
4.
Mangan
3
3
Progres mencapai Pertengahan Tahap Konstruksi Pabrik
17
5.
Zirkon
13
11
6.
Timbal dan Seng
2
2
7.
Kaolin dan Zeolit
4
4
Total
80
70
4.
5.
6.
31-50
51-80
81-100
Progres mencapai Akhir Tahap Konstruksi
8
Progres mencapai tahap commissioning/Produksi
25
14
6
27
KOMODITAS
JUMLAH FAS. PENGOLAHAN /PEMURNIAN
2015 No
Nama Perusahaan
1
PT. Indoferro
2
PT. Cahaya Modern
3
4 5 6
7
PT Sambas Mineral Mining PT Macika Mineral Industri PT Karyatama Konawe Utara PT Bintang Delapan PT Fajar Bhakti Lintas Nusantara PT Gebe Sentra Nikel
Nilai Ekspor Bijih (USD)
Nilai Ekspor Logam (USD)
Kapasitas Input (tpy)
Volume Produk (tpy)
1.500.000
250.000 NPI
47,385,000
297.500.000
48.000
8.640 NPI
1,516,320
10.281.600
180.000
12.000 FeNi (25 % Ni)
5,686,200
39.900.000
290.000
53.000 FeNi (10 %Ni)
9,161,100
70.490.000
250.000
50.000 NPI (8-10% Ni)
7,897,500
59.500.000
1.600.000
300.000 NPI (10 -15 % Ni)
50,544,000
357.000.000
500.000 300.000
100.000 FeNi (10-16 % Ni) 6000 ingot Ni
25.000.000
215.000
150.000.000
20.000 NPI
3.000.000
7.000.000
10.000 FeNi (30% Ni)
25,272,000
33.000.000
172.734.120
1.089.361.600
8
PT Adiguna
9
PT. Antam (ekspansi)
800.000
Total
5.468.000
Refined Ni Producing companies, construction completed and nearly completed, Excluding existing Vale and Aneka Tambang
Progress of Smelter > 30% No
Komoditas
1
Nikel
2 3 4
Nikel Nikel Nikel
5
Nikel
6 7 8 9
16 17
Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel Nikel
18
Bauksit
10 11 12 13 14 15
TOTAL
Nilai Ekspor Bijih (USD)
Nama perusahaan Bintang Delapan Mineral Bintang Delapan Energi Gebe Industri Nikel Integra Mining Nusantara PT. Macika Mada Madana Fajar Bhakti Lintas Nusantara Gebe Sentra Nikel PT Karyatama Konawe Utara Bhineka Sekarsa Adidaya PT. Cipta Djaya Surya Pernick Sultra, PT Elit Kharisma Utama Konawe Nikel Nusantara Kembar Emas Sultra PT. Bima Cakra Perkasa Mineralindo PT. PAM METALINDO Aneka Tambang-FeNi Haltim Wanatiara Persada (Multi Baja Industri) Rimba Kurnia Alam (Multi Baja Industri) PT. Antam (ekspansi) PT. Cahaya Modern PT. Harita Prima Abadi Mineral (Harita Group & Well Harvest Winning)
IUPOPK IUPOPK
IUPOPK
Nilai Ekspor Logam (USD)
50,544,000
357,000,000
9,477,000 3,411,720 9,161,100
81,690,000 24,990,000 70.490,000
15,795,000
133,000,000
7,897,500 47,385,000 120,042,000 11,372,400
59,500,000 357,000,000 833,000,000 4,284,000
1,421,550
8,925,000
8,845,200 110,565,000 75,816,000 78,975,000
46,550,000 246,050,000 219,450,000 132,000,000
25,272,000
146,300,000
25,272,000 1,516,320
33,000,000 10,281,600
51,208,000
230,000,000
653,976,790
2,993,510,600
*) pada 2013, nilai ekspor bijih sebesar 3,8 milyar dolar (25%) dari total nilai ekspor. nilai ekspor 2014 turun karena PTFI dan PTNNT tidak ekspor selama 7 bulan. Bandingkan dengan 2009 ekspor bijih 35 juta dolar (2,7%) dari total nilai ekspor mineral **) Proyeksi nilai ekspor.
CLOSING 1. The Government will remain consistent in the implementation of the Law of Mineral and Coal Mining, meaning that mineral processing and refining in the country is a must. KADIN (Indonesia Chamber of Commerce, in which is ISPA included) has sent a letter to the Government, that will be committed to help and join together with the Government in the implementation and the acceleration of Ni refinery establishment. 2. The Government is committed to speed up the completion of construction of mineral processing facilities by improving licensing process (one stop service, harmonizing licensing and less time consuming of public services), fiscal policy (tax allowance/tax holday, import tax), facilitating provision of infrastructure, and assurance of sustainable Ni ore supply. 3. Global economy condition has affected declining Ni and other commodities price. However, in term of Ni, it is believed that position of Indonesian Ni is important in influencing volatility of global Ni industry. The consistence of Indonesia in implementing the ore ban policy is believed and hoped that the price will be better in future (but when ?). 4. Progress of Ni smelter in the country is slow but positive (due to challenges of insufficient energy and infrastructure). We can say that business opportunity is wide open to develop Ni industry and other mineral/metal based industries.
