UNIVERS ITEIT GENT FACULTEIT ECONOMIE EN BEDRIJFS KUNDE ACADEMIEJAAR 2009 – 2010
DE IMPACT VAN OLIESCHOKKEN OP SECTORPORTEFEUILLES VAN AANDELEN
Masterproef voorgedragen tot het bekomen van de graad van Master in de Toegepaste Economische Wetenschappen: Handelsingenieur
Ann-S ophie Be lae n onde r le iding van Prof. Dr. G. Pe e rs man
PERMISS ION
Ondergetekende verklaart dat de inhoud van deze masterproef mag geraadpleegd en/of gereproduceerd worden, mits bronvermelding.
Belaen Ann-Sophie
Dankwoord
Met dit dankwoord wil ik me richten de personen die me geholpen hebben bij het tot stand komen van deze thesis. In de eerste plaats wil ik me tot Ine Van Robays richten en haar bedanken voor haar begeleiding gedurende dit eindwerk. Zonder haar adviezen en vele tips was het schrijven van deze thesis een nog moeilijkere opgave geweest. Dank ook aan de mensen van het thuisfront die me steunden en hielpen waar ze konden: mijn vriend, mijn ouders en Julie en Nicolas.
Inhoud Figuren............................................................................................................................................... 2 Tabellen ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Inleiding ............................................................................................................................................. 4 1. THEORIE ......................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Literatuuroverzicht...................................................................................................................... 5 1.2. Olieschokken ............................................................................................................................... 6 1.3. Transmissie ................................................................................................................................. 7 1.3.1. Aanbodseffecten ..................................................................................................................... 8 1.3.2 Vraageffecten............................................................................................................................ 8 1.4. Sectoren.................................................................................................................................... 13 1.5. Keuze model en variabelen....................................................................................................... 15 1.5.1. Moderne portfolio theorie...................................................................................................... 15 1.5.2. Factoren................................................................................................................................. 18 1.5.2.1. Beïnvloeden olieprijzen aandelenreturns? ........................................................................... 18 1.5.2.2. Andere factoren .................................................................................................................. 19 2. EMPIRIE........................................................................................................................................ 23 2.1. Model en data........................................................................................................................... 23 2.2 Resultaten.................................................................................................................................. 27 2.2.1. Algemene resultaten voor de 3 schokken ............................................................................... 27 2.2.2. Resultaten voor de verschillende sectoren.............................................................................. 31 2.3. Asymmetrie............................................................................................................................... 37 2.3.1. Marktindex............................................................................................................................. 37 2.3.2. Resultaten voor de verschillende sectoren.............................................................................. 40 3. CONCLUSIE................................................................................................................................... 42 Bronnen........................................................................................................................................... 43
Figuren Figuur 1: Security Market Line.......................................................................................................... 17 Figuur 2: OECD Europe Petroleum Imports....................................................................................... 21
Tabellen Tabel 1: effect van een oliespecifieke vraagschok op de marktindex ................................................ 28 Tabel 2: Effect van een olieaanbodschok op de marktindex.............................................................. 29 Tabel 3: Effect van een globale vraagschok op de marktindex .......................................................... 31 Tabel 4: Asymmetrie, effect van een oliespecifieke vraagschok op de marktindex ............................ 39 Tabel 5: Intervallen marktindex........................................................................................................ 40
Afkortingen Oaanb
olieaanbodschok
Oglob
globale vraagschok
Ospec
oliespecifieke vraagschok
IP
Industrial Production
IR
Interest Rate
EX
Wisselkoers
BBP
het bruto binnenlands product (een maat voor output)
C
private consumptie
I
bruto-investeringen
G
overheidsconsumptie
Xgd – Zgd
de netto-uitvoer van goederen en diensten
MPT
Moderne Portfolio Theorie
CAPM
Capital Allocation Pricing Model
APT
Arbitrage Pricing Theory
2
CML
Capital Market Line
SML
Security Market Line
M
het marktportfolio
Ri
risicopremie van een individueel aandeel
RM
risicopremie van het marktportfolio
rf
risicovrije rente
F
een macro-economische factor
3
Inleiding
In mijn paper zal ik onderzoeken welk verband er in de Eurozone bestaat tussen olieschokken en het rendement op aandelen. Ik zal onderzoeken op welke manier aandelenreturns reageren op olieschokken met verschillend onderliggende oorzaken. Als uitbreiding op eerdere werken, zal ik de impact van deze olieschokken op de aandelenkoersen van verschillende sectoren onderzoeken. Daarbij zal ik proberen te bepalen welke transmissiekanalen verantwoordelijk zijn voor deze relaties en zal ik onderzoeken of asymmetrische effecten hierin een rol spelen. In het eerste deel van de paper bespreek ik de bestaande literatuur en enkele theoretische aspecten rond olieprijzen en aandelenreturns. Ik zal een kort literatuuroverzicht geven, gevolgd door een bespreking van de olieschokken en hun invloed op de economie. Daarna leg ik uit hoe de transmissie van olieschokken op de economie verloopt. In een volgend hoofdstuk bespreek ik kort de sectoren, waarna ik het gebruikte model verantwoord. Het tweede deel van de paper bestaat uit het onderzoek. In het eerst hoofdstuk beschrijf ik het gebruikte model en de gebruikte data. In het tweede hoofdstuk in dit deel interpreteer ik de empirische resultaten. Het derde hoofdstuk bespreekt het model voor het (a)symmetrieonderzoek en de empirische resultaten.
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1. THEORIE
1.1 Literatuuroverzicht
Sinds de jaren 1970 hebben verschillende onderzoekers interesse getoond in energieprijzen. Er werd onderzoek gedaan naar de invloed van energieschokken op andere economische variabelen. Mork en Hall (1980) bijvoorbeeld, onderzochten de impact van energieschokken op 2 kanalen. Volgens hen hebben de energieschokken van de jaren 1973-1974 een allereerst een invloed op de output en daardoor ook op ondermeer investeringen en consumptie. Het tweede kanaal dat Mork en Hall onderzochten was dat van de financiële zijde van de economie. Volgens Mork en Hall zorgen energieprijzen voor een algemene prijsstijging, dus inflatie. Tot begin de jaren 1980 geloofden de meeste onderzoekers (vb. Hamilton (1983)) in een sterk verband tussen energieprijzen en economische activiteit. Midden de jaren 1980, ondervond de relatie tussen olieprijzen en de macro-economie een structurele wijziging. Deze structurele breuk zorgde ervoor dat er minder extreme veranderingen zijn in de BBP-groei en inflatie (Mc Connel en Perez-Quiros (2000) en Baumeister en Peersman (2008)). Baumeister en Peersman (2008) brengen twee redenen naar voor om deze structurele breuk te verklaren. Enerzijds is de oliemarkt structureel gewijzigd. De curve van de vraag naar olie is na halfweg de jaren 1980 steiler en dus minder elastisch geworden. Anderzijds is de economische structuur
veranderd.
Voorbeelden
daarvan
zijn
de
verminderde
olie-intensiviteit
in
productieprocessen en de verhoogde flexibiliteit van de arbeidsmarkten. Deze twee veranderingen verhinderen een goede vergelijking tussen de periode vóór en na midden de jaren ‘80. Tot op vandaag bestaat er grote interesse naar de impact van olieschokken. De meeste onderzoeken zijn gericht op de Verenigde Staten. Edelstein en Kilian (2007) bijvoorbeeld, onderzochten de invloed van energieschokken op de consumptie. Kilian onderzocht samen met Rebucci en Spatafora (2009) de impact van olieschokken op financiële economische aspecten zoals de betalingsbalans, en samen met Park (2007) onderzocht hij de impact van olieschokken op de aandelenmarkt in de Verenigde Staten. In dit laatste werk toonden ze aan dat, op lange termijn, een significant deel van de variatie in aandelenportefeuilles kan verklaard worden door olieschokken.
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Ook Lee en Ni (2002) onderzochten de invloed van olieschokken in de Verenigde Staten. Ze onderzochten hoe olieschokken vraag en aanbod in verschillende sectoren beïnvloeden. Volgens hen zijn de responsverschillen per sector te verklaren door de verschillende rollen die olie speelt in de sectoren, en door de verschillende transmissiemechanismen die vraag en aanbod van die sectoren bepalen. De responsverschillen vinden volgens Lee en Ni hun oorsprong in de olie-intensiteit die verschilt per sector. Ze komen onder andere tot de conclusie dat olieschokken vooral een invloed hebben op de aanbodzijde van olie-intensieve sectoren, waar ze bij andere sectoren eerder een invloed uitoefenen op de vraagzijde. Hoewel er veel onderzoek is verricht naar de relatie tussen olieprijzen en de economie in de Verenigde Staten, is er in Europa minder aandacht aan besteed. Er zijn echter verschillen tussen de reacties op olieschokken in de Verenigde Staten en die in Europa. Zo stellen Peersman en Van Robays (2009) dat de monetaire overheden verschillend reageren op olieschokken en hun gevolgen. Dit kan ook andere economische factoren beïnvloeden, zodat die verschillend reageren op een olieschok. In mijn paper zal ik onderzoeken welk verband er in de Eurozone bestaat tussen olieschokken en het rendement op aandelen. Ik zal deze relatie onderzoeken voor de verschillende olieschokken, zoals die beschreven zijn in Peersman en Van Robays (2009). Als uitbreiding op het werk van Lee en Ni (2002) zal ik de impact van deze olieschokken op de aandelenkoersen van verschillende sectoren onderzoeken. Daarbij zal ik proberen te bepalen welke transmissiekanalen verantwoordelijk zijn voor deze relaties en zal ik onderzoeken of asymmetrische effecten hierin een rol spelen.
1.2. Olieschokken
Een klassieke visie in de literatuur is dat de impact van een olieschok op de economie onafhankelijk is van de onderliggende oorzaak van die olieschok. Jones en Kaul (1996) onderzoeken de impact van olieprijswijzigingen op het rendement van aandelen. Daarbij stellen ze dat olieschokken exogeen zijn en schenken ze geen aandacht aan de onderliggende oorzaak van de olieschok. Ook Sadorsky (1999) gebruikt een enkelvoudige definitie in zijn onderzoek naar de respons van aandelenrendementen op olieschokken. Kilian (2009) daarentegen, toont aan dat deze klassieke interpretatie verkeerd is. Volgens hem hebben olieschokken geen exogene invloed op de economie, maar zijn ze endogene economische 6
factoren. Dit wil zeggen dat olieschokken een invloed hebben op andere economische factoren (vb. output), die op hun beurt dan weer de olieprijzen beïnvloeden. De oorzaak van een olieschok is volgens Kilian verbonden met het gevolg ervan. Daarom deelt hij olieschokken op in drie structurele schokken, afhankelijk van de onderliggende oorzaak ervan. Deze schokken zijn: olieaanbodschokken, bijvoorbeeld gedreven door politieke gebeurtenissen in OPEC-landen, schokken door veranderingen in de globale vraag naar goederen en diensten, en schokken door veranderingen in oliespecifieke vraag. Olieaanbodschokken gedreven door politieke gebeurtenissen in OPEC-landen zoals oorlogen of revoluties reageren volgens Kilian (2009) niet op andere schokken. Andere olieaanbodschokken zijn bijvoorbeeld schokken door olieproductie in niet-OPEC-landen of door kartelvorming (productiequota). Verder definieert Kilian de economische activiteit als oorzaak voor olieschokken door veranderingen in de globale vraag naar goederen en diensten. Hij noemt deze ‘aggregate demand shocks’. De vraagschok die daartegenover staat is de schok door veranderingen in de oliespecifieke vraag, dus enkel de vraag naar olie, los van de totale vraag naar goederen en diensten. Kilian en Park (2007) tonen aan dat de aandelenkoersen in de Verenigde Staten verschillend reageren, afhankelijk van de onderliggende oorzaak van de olieschok. Enkel voor oliespecifieke vraagschokken, zoals de precautionaire vraag naar olie, leiden hogere olieprijzen tot lagere returns. Stijgende olieprijzen door veranderingen in de globale vraag naar goederen en diensten zorgen dan weer voor hogere returns. Volgens Kilian en Park zijn olieaanbodschokken minder belangrijk om de impact van olieschokken op aandelenkoersen te verklaren.
1.3. Transmissie
Om de impact van olieschokken op aandelen te kunnen interpreteren, is het nodig te begrijpen hoe de transmissie van olieschokken op aandelen werkt. Edelstein en Kilian (2008) onderzoeken het effect van olieschokken op de reële consumptie. Ze beschrijven de invloed van wijzigingen in de koopkracht op de reële consumptie aan de hand van 5 effecten. Ik deel deze effecten van olieschokken op in vraag- en aanbodkanalen. Dit helpt me om, verder in deze paper, de empirische resultaten te interpreteren. Bij vraageffecten hebben olieschokken een invloed op de vraag naar goederen en diensten. Die vraag kan op haar beurt ook
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het aanbod beïnvloeden. Bij aanbodseffecten wordt het aanbod of de productie rechtstreeks gewijzigd, zonder een noodzakelijke wijziging van de vraag te impliceren.
1.3.1. Aanbodseffecten
Inputkosten effecten
Als olieprijzen stijgen, zullen de kosten om goederen en diensten te produceren ook stijgen. Dit zorgt voor winstdalingen en prijsstijgingen, en bijgevolg voor inflatie. De grootte van het inputkosten effect hangt af van de olie-intensiteit van de productie. Transportsectoren kunnen bijvoorbeeld sterker beïnvloed worden dan de sector van bureaumateriaal en rekenmachines 1, omdat ze een hogere olieintensiteit hebben. Ik vermoed dat inputkosten effecten symmetrisch zijn. Dit wil zeggen dat, waar bij een olieprijsstijging de winst daalt en de prijzen kunnen stijgen door hogere kosten, bij een olieprijsdaling de winst stijgt en de prijzen kunnen dalen door lagere kosten. Onderzoekers vinden dat inputkosten effecten eerder klein zijn. Dit komt volgens Lee en Ni (2002) en hun referenties, Okun (1975), Perry (1977), en Nordhaus (1980), omdat de energiekosten in productie klein zijn en er op korte termijn weinig substitutie-elasticiteit is tussen energie en andere grondstoffen. Ook Bohi (1991) minimaliseert de inputkosten effecten. Hij bewijst dit aan de hand van het ontbreken van een correlatie tussen output van verschillende industrieën en hun energieintensiteit.
1.3.2 Vraageffecten
Olieschokken zorgen voor wijzigingen in de vraag naar goederen en diensten. Deze vraag heeft een impact op de productie en dus de output. De grootte van de impact van olieprijzen op de vraag is afhankelijk van de elasticiteit van de vraag naar deze goederen en diensten.
1 Volgens Lee en Ni (2002) bedraagt de kost van olie minder dan 2% van de volledige kosten voor deze sector, terwijl dit bij de transportsector logischerwijze veel hoger ligt.
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Lee en Ni (2002) beschouwen vraageffecten als belangrijker dan aanbodseffecten. Ook Hamilton (2008) toont aan dat olieschokken de economie vooral beïnvloeden via wijzigingen in de vraag naar goederen en diensten. In de literatuur en ook bij beleidsmakers heerst er een consensus over deze visie en worden vraageffecten als belangrijker beschouwd dan aanbodseffecten.
Beschikbare-inkomenseffecten
Een eerste vraageffect is het beschikbare-inkomenseffect. Als olieprijzen stijgen dan daalt het beschikbaar inkomen YD. Volgens de Keynesiaanse consumptiefunctie (Heylen (2004)) is consumptie een lineaire functie van het beschikbaar inkomen (zie vergelijking 1). Een daling van het beschikbaar inkomen zorgt voor een daling van de consumptie en dus van de vraag. C = C 0 + c.YD Met
(1)
C : de consumptie C0 : de autonome consumptie c : de marginale-consumptiequote
Een lager beschikbaar inkomen zorgt ook voor een daling van de geplande investeringen IP (vergelijking 2), wat op zijn beurt opnieuw de vraag doet dalen. (Heylen (2004)) IP = I0+ a.Y – b.R Met
(2)
IP : de geplande investeringen a :outputgevoeligheid van de vraag b : de rentegevoeligheid van de investeringen R : de ex-ante reële langetermijnrentevoet Y =YD+T T : de netto-ontvangsten (belastingen) van de overheid
Volgens Edelstein en Kilian (2008) zijn de inkomenseffecten symmetrisch. Daarmee bedoelen ze dat de stijging van de globale vraag naar goederen en diensten even groot zal zijn bij dalende olieprijzen als de daling van de globale vraag bij stijgende olieprijzen. Bohi (1991) legt uit dat landen die meer afhankelijk zijn van olie-import niet noodzakelijk meer lijden onder een oliecrisis. Het Verenigd Koninkrijk bijvoorbeeld, kende tijdens de oliecrisis tussen 1978 en 1981 een veel grotere recessie dan Japan, hoewel het Verenigd Koninkrijk netto olie-exporterend 9
was en Japan netto olie-importerend. Dit doet vermoeden dat inkomenseffecten door olieschokken eerder klein zijn. Volgens Peersman en Van Robays (2009) echter, zorgen olieprijsstijgingen vooral in olie-importerende landen voor een daling van het beschikbaar inkomen. Dit komt volgens hen omdat olie eerder inelastisch is. Volgens Edelstein en Kilian (2008) is er een inkomenseffect, maar is dit niet groot genoeg om de reactie van de consumptie op olieschokken volledig te kunnen verklaren.
Onzekerheidseffecten
“Since the 1980s, oil price volatility is more significant in its effect on economic activity than the oil price level. A volatile environment weakens the effect of price level changes since it reduces the "surprise."
Increasing volatility creates market uncertainties that induce
companies to postpone their investments. Furthermore, volatility affects labor markets by disturbing the reallocative process among sectors. Again, it is the surprise of an oil price increase that matters.” (Sauter en Awerbuch, 2002, p. 11-12) Onzekerheidseffecten werden eerst vernoemd door Bernanke (1983)2. Hij toont aan dat onzekerheid een belangrijke invloed kan hebben op het financiële systeem. Hamilton (1988)
gebruikt
onzekerheidseffecten om de effecten van olieschokken op de economie te verklaren. Onverwachte olieschokken vergroten de onzekerheid over het verdere verloop van olieprijzen en de beschikbaarheid van olie. Door die onzekerheid zullen consumenten de aankoop van duurzame consumptiegoederen (bijvoorbeeld een voertuig) uitstellen. Op deze manier vermindert dus de globale vraag naar goederen en diensten. Zowel Hamilton (1988, 2003) als Pindyck en Rotemberg (1984) suggereren dat onzekerheidseffecten belangrijk zijn om recessies door olieschokken te verklaren. In de literatuur wordt aangenomen dat onzekerheidseffecten asymmetrisch zijn ten opzichte van olieschokken. Edelstein en Kilian (2008) bespreken verschillende vormen van asymmetrie die in de literatuur beschreven staan. In de sterkste vorm van asymmetrie zorgen onverwachte prijsstijgingen of -dalingen voor een daling van de consumptie van duurzame consumptiegoederen, omdat huishoudens grote aankopen uitstellen. Bij olieprijsstijgingen wordt zo het beschikbareinkomenseffect versterkt, terwijl het bij olieprijsdalingen afgezwakt wordt. Een zwakkere versie van deze hypothese zegt dat bij olieprijsdalingen de geplande aankopen toch zullen doorgaan, waardoor
2 Bernanke gebruikt de term ̈onzekerheid̉ in de context van de bankcrisis in de jaren 1930. Volgens hem is onzekerheid over de economische leefbaarheid van banken een belangrijke oorzaak van het falen van verschillende banken.
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onzekerheidseffecten bij olieprijsdalingen dus zwakker zijn dan bij olieprijsstijgingen. Edelstein en Kilian (2008) stellen dat onzekerheidseffecten asymmetrisch zijn, maar ze maken geen onderscheid tussen de sterke en de zwakkere vorm van asymmetrie. Volgens Mork en Hall (1980) beïnvloeden olieprijzen naast consumptie, ook investeringen. Volgens Kilian(2008b) gebeurt dit door het onzekerheidseffect. Hij legt uit dat het onzekerheidseffect op twee manieren zijn weg vindt in de economie: via de vraagzijde en via de aanbodzijde. Bedrijven kunnen, in het geval van stijgende energieprijzen, onzeker zijn over productiekosten of inkomsten in de toekomst. Daardoor zullen ze minder investeren. In het geval van dalende energieprijzen, zal het onzekerheidseffect de extra investeringen door het geloof in lagere productiekosten en hogere inkomsten tegengaan. In de aanbodzijde van de economie is het onzekerheidseffect dus asymmetrisch. Aan de vraagzijde vindt Kilian echter geen bewijs voor asymmetrie. Edelstein en Kilian (2008) stellen dat onzekerheidseffecten asymmetrisch zijn. In de empirische resultaten van hun onderzoek, vinden ze geen bewijs voor asymmetrie bij duurzame consumptiegoederen, waaruit ze concluderen dat onzekerheidseffecten niet bestaan.
‘Precautionary savings effecten’
Onverwachte olieschokken zorgen voor onzekerheid en angst over het toekomstig inkomen. Door bijvoorbeeld een stijging van de olieprijzen, kan er angst ontstaan voor toekomstig inkomensverlies door werkloosheid. Huishoudens zullen daarop proberen te anticiperen, waardoor volgens Peersman en Van Robays (2009) de vraag naar goederen en diensten zal dalen. In tegenstelling tot het onzekerheidseffect, beperkt dit effect zich niet tot de duurzame consumptiegoederen. Volgens Edelstein en Kilian (2008) kan dit effect symmetrisch of asymmetrisch zijn: asymmetrisch omdat zowel olieprijsstijgingen als –dalingen onzekerheid creëren; symmetrisch omdat consumenten een olieprijsdaling als positief beschouwen. Uit de resultaten van hun onderzoek concluderen Kilian en Edelstein dat ‘precautionary savings effecten’ bestaan, maar dan enkel in hun symmetrische vorm.
Operating cost effecten
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Als olieprijzen stijgen, zullen de kosten om aan olie gerelateerde goederen te producren ook stijgen. Daardoor zullen olie-intensieve producten, zoals zware wagens, minder gebruikt worden, en zullen consumenten overschakelen op olie-efficiëntere goederen. Volgens Hamilton (2008) zijn operating cost effecten asymmetrisch. Hij legt dit uit aan de hand van het volgende voorbeeld: Als olieprijzen stijgen, zullen consumenten de aankoop van een nieuwe wagen uitstellen, terwijl een olieprijsdaling er niet voor zal zorgen dat consumenten een tweede wagen zullen kopen. Volgens Edelstein en Kilian (2008) kan het echter zijn dat consumenten, die geen middelen hebben om een (tweede) wagen te kopen, dit toch doen bij een prijsdaling. En zelfs al klopt de redenering van Hamilton, dan nog heeft hij geen rekening gehouden met het verschil in energie-efficiëntie van verschillende wagens. Bij een olieprijsstijging bijvoorbeeld, zullen, volgens Edelstein en Kilian, consumenten hun SUV inruilen voor een zuinigere wagen. Kilian en Edelstein vermoeden dus dat operating cost effecten symmetrisch zijn.
Re-allocatie effect
Het re-allocatie effect, als eerste beschreven door Hamilton (1988), is volgens Kilian ( 2008b) toe te wijzen aan inter- en intra-sectoriële verschuivingen in de economie door een gewijzigde vraag. Deze verschuivingen veroorzaken re-allocaties in kapitaal en arbeidsmarkten, waardoor de werkloosheid stijgt en dus de koopkracht daalt. Het intrasectoriële re-allocatie effect is volgens Kilian asymmetrisch, omdat zowel olieprijsstijgingen als –dalingen zorgen voor een dalende output en een stijgende werkloosheid. Volgens Davis en Haltiwanger (2001) en Lee en Ni (2002) is dit indirect effect het belangrijkste kanaal waardoor olieschokken zich voortzetten in de economie. Echter, in het onderzoek van Edelstein en Kilian (2008) wordt het re-allocatie effect enkel teruggevonden in de auto-industrie, maar wegens het kleine aandeel van de auto-industrie in de totale economie van de V.S., vinden ze geen reallocatie effect op de reële consumptie. Dit wordt ook bevestigd door het ontbreken van asymmetrie in hun resultaten.
Impact op output en aandelenreturns
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Volgens Heylen (2004) geldt: BBP = C + I + G + Xgd – Zgd Met
(3)
BBP = het bruto binnenlands product (een maat voor output) C = private consumptie I = bruto-investeringen G = overheidsconsumptie Xgd – Zgd = de netto-uitvoer van goederen en diensten
Deze vergelijking toont ondermeer het positieve effect van reële consumptie en investeringen op de output, waardoor de vraageffecten kunnen doorgetrokken worden naar output. Als er minder vraag is naar goederen en diensten, kunnen, door lagere winsten, aandelenreturns dalen.
1.4. Sectoren
Kilian (2008b) onderzocht reeds de impact van olieschokken op de aandelenkoersen van verschillende sectoren in de Verenigde Staten. Ze kwam tot de volgende resultaten voor een stijging van de energieprijzen met 1% door een oliespecifieke vraagschok. De aandelen van motorvoertuigen kennen een significante daling. Binnen deze sector is er voor personenwagens geen significante daling, wel een verschuiving, door de stijgende vraag naar energie-efficiënte kleinere wagens. Voor andere duurzame consumptiegoederen is er een kleine daling, die echter voor de meeste aandelenkoersen weinig significant is. Op het gebied van voedingswaren werden er enkele verschillende reacties waargenomen. De aandelen voor restaurants kenden een snelle en duidelijke daling, terwijl de daling bij fast-food zich terug herstelde tot het oorspronkelijke niveau. Voedingswaren en alcoholconsumptie thuis kenden dan weer een stijging, en duurdere voedingswaren zoals vis en zeevruchten werden gesubstitueerd door goedkopere voedingswaren zoals varkensvlees. Andere niet-duurzame consumptiegoederen (kledij, speelgoed en cosmetica) kenden een kleine en vaak insignificante daling van de aandelenkoersen. De toeristische sector (hotels etc.) en de luchtvaartsector kenden een daling, terwijl bus- en treinreizen hun aandelen zagen stijgen. De Amerikaanse gezondheidszorg reageerde niet significant op de olieschok, en ook de ontspanning- en entertainmentsector kenden geen daling. Kilian ontdekte dus dat oliespecifieke vraagschokken de sterkste invloed hadden in de energiesector, de autosector, de kleinhandel en toerismegerelateerde sectoren. Een opmerkelijke conclusie die 13
Kilian maakt, is dat de energie-intensiteit van een industrie geen belangrijke factor is om verschillen in reactie op olieschokken te verklaren. Ook Bohi (1991) en anderen kwamen tot deze conclusie. Ook Lee en Ni (2002) onderzochten de invloed van olieschokken op verschillende sectoren. Hun aandacht ging uit naar de output en de prijzen van deze sectoren. Ze vertrokken van de olieintensiteit, zowel direct als indirect, van 14 verschillende sectoren. Als de output en prijs een tegengestelde reactie tonen, is er volgens Lee en Ni een dominant effect aan de aanbodzijde, terwijl bij een reactie in dezelfde richting het dominant effect aan de vraagzijde is. De resultaten van hun onderzoek suggereren dat vooral olie-intensieve sectoren reageren aan de aanbodzijde, daar de output gelijk blijft of daalt en de prijs stijgt. Minder olie-intensieve sectoren zoals de auto-industrie reageren met zowel een dalende output als een dalende prijs. Dit is het resultaat van een vermindering van de vraag. Volgens Faff en Brailsford (1999) reageren Australische olie-, gas- en (andere) grondstoffen-sectoren positief op olieschokken, terwijl de papier- en verpakkingssector, de banksector en de transportsector negatief gerelateerd zijn aan olieschokken. Kilian en Park (2007) baseerden zich op de indeling in sectoren aan de hand van olie-intensiteit van Lee en Ni (2002). Ze vulden dit werk aan door aandacht te schenken aan de onderliggende oorzaak van de olieschokken. Ze deelden olieschokken op in olieaanbodschokken, schokken door veranderingen in de globale vraag naar goederen en diensten, en schokken door veranderingen in oliespecifieke vraag. Ze kwamen tot de conclusie dat de 4 meest energie-intensieve sectoren niet significant verschillend reageren dan sectoren met lagere energie-intensiteit. Verder zijn volgens Kilian en Park(2007) olieaanbodschokken minder belangrijk om de impact van olieschokken op aandelenkoersen te verklaren. Verder toont het onderzoek van Lee en Ni (2002) aan dat de output van verschillende sectoren reageren met dezelfde vertraging (10 maanden) en dat ze zich ongeveer 18 maanden na de olieschok allemaal snel herstellen. Dit kan gevolgen hebben voor de vertraging van de reactie van de aandelenkoersen van de verschillende sectoren. Verder vinden Lee en Ni (2002) dat de output van alle sectoren gelijkaardig reageert op olieschokken. Daaruit concluderen ze dat olieschokken simultaan de vraag onderuit halen in vele sectoren, zodat er een recessie in de hele economie ontstaat. Dit sluit echter niet uit dat olieschokken geen allocaties veroorzaken. Omdat ze slechts 14 sectoren onderzoeken, is het mogelijk dat hun resultaten niet alle allocaties aantonen.
14
1.5. Keuze model en variabelen
1.5.1. Moderne portfolio theorie
Ter verklaring van de wijzigingen in de aandelenkoersen gebruik ik de moderne portfolio theorie (MPT). Markowitz (1952) was de grondlegger van de MPT met zijn “Markowitz’ portfolio selection model”. De MPT stelt dat iedere investeerder de verwachte opbrengst en het daarmee gepaarde risico afweegt om zo zijn optimale portfolio te bereiken. Het optimale portfolio is afhankelijk van de risicoaversie of –tolerantie van elke individuele investeerder. De investeerder streeft een efficiënt portfolio na, dit wil zeggen een portfolio met de hoogste verwachte opbrengst per risico-unit. Meer dan 10 jaar later werd door William Sharpe, John Lintner en Jan Mossin. (1964,1965 en 1966 resp.) het Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) geïntroduceerd. Het CAPM beschrijft de relatie tussen het risico en de verwachte opbrengst van een aandeel. Deze relatie kan op twee manieren gebruikt worden. Ten eerste als een benchmark tussen verschillende aandelen, ten tweede als een methode om de verwachte opbrengst van nieuwe aandelen te schatten. De basisversie van het CAPM omvat enkele assumpties: •
Er zijn veel investeerders, elk met een klein investeerbaar bedrag tegenover het totale bedrag van alle investeerders. Investeerders zijn in perfecte competitie en zijn dus prijsnemers.
•
Investeerders denken op korte termijn.
•
Investeerders kunnen elk bedrag lenen, aan een vaste, risicovrij tarief.
•
Investeerders betalen geen belastingen of transactiekosten.
•
Alle investeerders zijn rationeel en kiezen voor het optimale portfolio volgens het “Markowitz’ portfolio selection model”.
•
Investeerders hebben homogene verwachtingen.
Deze assumpties zijn zowel een sterk punt als een zwak punt van het CAPM. Een sterk punt, omdat het CAPM op deze manier eenvoudig toe te passen is en een zwak punt, omdat de hypothetische wereld verschilt van de realiteit en daarmee het CAPM niet volledig realistisch is.
15
Deze assumpties zorgen voor een marktevenwicht, waarin M het marktportfolio is. Het marktportfolio omvat alle verhandelde aandelen. Alle investeerders houden M als hun optimale risicovolle portfolio. De ‘capital market line’ (CML) is de lijn van de ‘riskfree rate’ tot M en toont investeerders de beste return ze kunnen behalen aan een bepaald risico-niveau. De risicopremie van het marktportfolio ( RM ), gedefinieerd in vergelijking 4, is gelijk aan het product ?
van s ²M (de variantie van M) en
( de gemiddelde risico aversie van investeerders)(vergelijking 6).
(4)
E(ri) – rf = Ri
(5)
RM = s ²M *
(6)
?
E(rM) – rf = RM
De risicopremie van individuele aandelen (Ri), zoals gedefinieerd in vergelijking 5, is evenredig aan dat van het marktportfolio. Deze relatie wordt uitgedrukt in vergelijking 6. De evenredigheidsfactor in deze vergelijking is de beta-coëfficient, die gedefinieerd wordt als volgt: ßi = cov(ri,rM)/s ²M. De beta-coëfficiënt meet de sensitiviteit van het individueel aandeel tegenover het marktportfolio. E(ri) – rf = E(ri)
ßi * E(rM) – rf
(6)
= rf + ßi * E(rM) – rf
Deze relatie wordt afgebeeld door de ‘Security Market Line’ (SML) volgens Sharpe (1964). De SML beschrijft de risicopremie van individuele aandelen als functie van het risico, gemeten door de betacoëfficiënt. Volgens het CAPM is de markt in evenwicht en liggen dus alle aandelen op de SML (figuur 1).
16
FI GUUR 1: SECURI TY MARKET LI NE
Zoals eerder vermeld, heeft de theoretische en hypothetische aanpak van het CAPM nadelen die de implementatie ervan in de weg staan. Een nadeel is dat de returns gebruikt in het CAPM verwachte of ex-ante returns zijn, terwijl er in de praktijk enkel ex-post returns kunnen gemeten worden. Daardoor liggen niet alle aandelen op de SML. Wanneer een aandeel boven/onder de SML ligt is het respectievelijk onder-/overgeprijsd. Een coëfficiënt, alfa, drukt dan het verschil uit tussen de actuele en theoretische return van een aandeel. In het index model (vergelijking 7) wordt hiermee rekening gehouden. In deze vergelijking is ei de bedrijfsspecifieke storingsterm. Ri = a i + ßi * RM + ei
(7)
Terwijl het CAPM stelt dat de verwachte waarde van a gelijk is aan nul voor alle aandelen, terwijl het index model stelt dat het gemiddelde van de gerealiseerde waarde van a gelijk zou moeten zijn aan nul. Het index model kan veralgemeend worden tot het single factor model (vergelijking 8). Dit model kan gebruikt worden om de invloed van verschillende factoren te meten op de return van een aandeel i.
17
F stelt de onverwachte verandering van een macro-factor voor, wat ons zal toelaten verschillende variabelen dan de risicopremie van het marktportfolio te implementeren. Ri = ßiF + ei
(8)
Fama en French (1992) stellen dat het CAPM geen goed model is om verwachte returns van aandelen te verklaren. Volgens hen kunnen de tekortkomingen van het CAPM verklaard worden in multifactor modellen zoals ICAPM of APT (vergelijking 9 ). Ri = a i + ßiM * RM + ßi1 * F1+ … + ßin * Fn + ei
(9)
Ook Roll en Ross (1980) stellen dat het APT een beter alternatief is voor het CAPM, omdat er weinig restricties aan verbonden zijn, en omdat het gebruikt kan worden in zowel multi-period als singleperiod gevallen. Hoewel volgens Roll en Ross het APT hetzelfde idee volgt als het CAPM (een lineair ‘return-generating’ proces), zijn er verschillen. Het APT vereist niet dat het marktportfolio ‘mean variance efficient’ is. Een ander, en belangrijk verschil is dat het APT meerdere factoren kan aanwenden ter verklaring van aandelen returns.
1.5.2. Factoren
Aandelenkoersen worden beïnvloed door meer factoren dan olieschokken alleen. Volgens Chen et al. (1986) worden aandelenkoersen beïnvloed door alle variabelen die de economie beïnvloeden. “From the perspective of efficient-market theory and rational expectations intertemporal asset-pricing theory, […]asset prices should depend on their exposures to the state variables that describe the economy.” (Chen, Roll en Ross, 1986, p. 402)
1.5.2.1. Beïnvloeden olieprijzen aandelenreturns? In de bestaande literatuur is er reeds veel onderzoek verricht naar de relatie tussen olieprijzen en aandelenkoersen. Hoewel Chen et al. (1986)3 en Huang et al. (1996) geen significant oorzakelijk verband zien tussen olieprijzen en aandelenkoersen, heerst er bij de meeste andere auteurs een
3 Chen motiveert dit aan de hand van ‘semi’marktefficiëntie, die zegt dat er enkel extra return kan komen uit niet-publieke info. Aangezien olieprijzen publiek gemaakt worden, kunnen deze volgens Chen et al. geen bepalende factor zijn voor asset returns.
18
consensus dat olieschokken een belangrijke factor zijn ter verklaring van aandelenkoersen. Sadorsky (1999) bijvoorbeeld, onderzocht de invloed van enkele economische variabelen op aandelenkoersen. Uit de resultaten blijkt dat olieprijzen een significante invloed hebben op stock returns. Jones en Kaul (1996) tonen aan dat olieschokken een nadelig effect hebben op de output en real stock returns in de Verenigde Staten, Canada, Japan en het Verenigd Koninkrijk in de na-oorlogse periode. AlMudhaf en Goodwin (1993) onderzochten de returns van 29 olie-bedrijven gequoteerd op de New York Stock Exchange. Ze vonden een positieve invloed van olieschokken op de (ex-post) returns voor bedrijven met significante activa in binnenlandse olieproductie. Papetrou (2001) toonde aan dat olieprijzen de aandelenkoersen in Griekenland significant beïnvloeden. Sadorsky (2001) toonde dat aandelenkoersen van Canadese olie- en gasbedrijven positief reageren op olieprijsstijgingen. Hoewel er geen consensus bestaat over de richting van de reactie op olieschokken, doen deze werken vermoeden dat olieprijzen één van de factoren zijn die aandelenkoersen beïnvloeden. Ook Kilan en Park(2007) tonen aan dat olieprijzen een belangrijke factor zijn ter verklaring van aandelenkoersen. Ze gaan hierin nog een stap verder. In plaats van de gemiddelde respons van aandelenkoersen op olieschokken te meten, delen ze olieschokken op in de 3 schokken beschreven in Kilian (2009). Ze tonen aan dat aandelenkoersen vooral beïnvloed worden door olievraagschokken, en minder door olieaanbodschokken. Meer specifiek zorgen hogere olieprijzen door oliespecifieke vraagschokken voor lagere returns, terwijl hogere olieprijzen door veranderingen in de globale vraag naar goederen en diensten voor hogere returns zorgen. Dit onderzoek verklaart de tegenstrijdige resultaten in verschillende eerdere werken, die enkel een eenzijdig effect vonden van olieschokken op aandelenreturns.4
1.5.2.2. Andere factoren Olieprijzen zijn echter niet de enige factoren die aandelenkoersen beïnvloeden. Ook andere factoren die een invloed hebben op de economie, kunnen een invloed hebben op de returns van aandelen. Voorbeelden zijn: output, interest rates, staatsobligaties, inflatie,… Chen et al. (1986) zijn van mening dat volgende variabelen de economie beschrijven en dus aandelenkoersen beïnvloeden: de (totale) output, wijzigingen in de risicopremie, een helling van de
4 Volgens Jones en Kaul (1996) reageren aandelenreturns negatief op olieschokken, terwijl volgens Al-Mudhaf en Goodwin (1993) en Sadorsky (2001) aandelenreturns positief reageren op olieschokken.
19
yield curve (wat verband houdt met interest rates), en in mindere mate onverwachte inflatie en veranderingen in verwachte inflatie. Sadorsky (1999) onderzocht de invloed van interest rates, output, real stock returns, olieprijzen en een 3-maand durende schatkistpromesse (3 month T-bill). Uit de resultaten van zijn onderzoek blijkt dat interest rates en olieprijzen een significante invloed hebben op stock returns, terwijl productieschokken weinig impact hebben. In een ander werk gebruikt Sadorsky (2001) een multifactor model om de verwachte returns op aandelen van de Canadese olie- en gasindustrie te schatten. Hij vindt dat wisselkoersen, olieprijzen en interest rates er een grote en significante impact op hebben. In geen enkele paper hiervóór beschreven, worden wisselkoersen gebruikt ter verklaring van aandelenkoersen, maar door de enorme energie-export uit Canada naar de Verenigde Staten, is de Canadese petroleum industrie volgens Sadorsky toch gevoelig voor de wisselkoers. De gevoeligheid voor interest rates is volgens Sadorsky dan weer te wijten aan de hoge kapitaalintensiviteit van de Canadese olie- en gasindustrie. Want veranderingen in interest rates zijn veranderingen in de prijs aangerekend voor krediet, wat een invloed heeft op de bedrijfswinsten. Dit beïnvloedt de prijs die investeerders willen betalen voor aandelen. Sadorsky (1999) heeft nog 2 andere verklaringen voor de impact van interest rates op aandelenkoersen. De eerste is dat veranderingen in interest rates wijzigingen van de relatie tussen financiële activa met zich meebrengen. Een derde verklaring is dat de kosten om aandelen (op marge) te kopen, een invloed hebben op speculaties van investeerders.
Interest rates
De meeste auteurs zijn er van overtuigd dat interest rates een impact hebben op aandelenkoersen. Daarom zal ik deze ook opnemen in mijn model. Eén van de implicaties van Sadorsky’s redenering zou moeten zijn dat aandelenkoersen uit kapitaalintensieve sectoren een grotere invloed zouden moeten voelen van interest rates.
Wisselkoersen
“The EU remains the world’s most important source of goods.” (Curran en Zignago, 2009, p.10) 20
In een rapport van het CEPII – CIREM ATLASS consortium schrijven Curran en Zignago dat Europa een belangrijke speler in de international handel is. In 2005 had de Europese Unie volgens hen met 19,6% het grootste marktaandeel in handelswaar. Dit is groter dan China of de Verenigde Staten, die een aandeel van 14% resp. 13% hadden. Deze cijfers tonen aan dat export een belangrijk deel van de Europese economie uitmaakt. Ook import is belangrijk. Een voorbeeld daarvan is de energie-import in de OECD, die sinds 2003 tussen 18 en 20 miljoen (barrels) per dag 5 bedraagt (figuur 2).
OECD Europe Petroleum Imports (1995-2009) 25,000 20,000 15,000 Total Gross Imports (Million Barrels per Day)
10,000 5,000 0,000 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
FI GUUR 2: OECD EUROPE PETROLEUM I MPORTS
Daar import en export belangrijk zijn voor de Europese economie, vermoed ik dat wisselkoersen een invloed zullen hebben op Europese aandelen. De grootte van deze invloed zal niet voor elke sector gelijk zijn, omdat er verschillende import- en exporthoeveelheden worden vastgesteld voor verschillende sectoren. Zo zijn de auto-industrie, de energiesector, de zware industriële machinesector, de grondstoffensector en de voedingssector de grootste importsectoren in Europa 6. Curran en Zignago stellen dat auto’s, chemicaliën, industriële machines, agrarische producten, voeding en metalen de meest verhandelde producten zijn tussen lidstaten van Europese Unie en andere landen. Op de aandelenkoersen van deze sectoren vermoed ik dat wisselkoersen een grotere impact zullen hebben.
5
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 11/05/2010,
. (13/05/2010). 6 Economy Watch, http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/europe/export-import.html. (05/02/2010).
21
Volgens Stavarek is de relatie met aandelenkoersen sterker voor de reële effectieve wisselkoers dan voor de nominale effectieve wisselkoers. Daarom gebruik ik in mijn regressie een reële effectieve wisselkoers.
Output
Over output is er geen gelijklopende mening. Sadorsky (1999) vindt dat output weinig impact heeft op aandelenkoersen. Chen et al. (1986) daarentegen, en in een recenter werk, Azeez en Yonezawa (2006), beweren dat output wel een invloed heeft op aandelenkoersen. Dit gebeurt volgens hen via hun invloed op winsten en dus op dividenden. Ik zal output wel opnemen in mijn model, en als maat voor de output zal ik industriële productie gebruiken.
Andere
Inflatie en real stock returns zal ik niet gebruiken, daar uit eerdere werken hun invloed op aandelen niet duidelijk bewezen is.
22
2. EMPIRIE
2.1. Model en data
Periode
Verschillende auteurs houden in hun onderzoek rekening met de structurele breuk van midden de jaren 1980. Deze breuk komt omdat volgens Baumeister en Peersman (2008) enerzijds de vraag naar olie minder elastisch is geworden, en anderzijds omdat de economische structuur veranderd is. Kilian (2008b) deelt zijn maandelijkse data op in twee helften, de eerste periode van 1970M02 tot 1987M12 en de tweede periode van 1988M01 tot 2006M07. Uit de resultaten hiervan blijkt dat olieschokken minder belangrijk geworden zijn voor de economie in de Verenigde Staten. De meest aannemelijke verklaring hiervoor is volgens Kilian dat de structuur van de auto-sector van de Verenigde Staten veranderd is. 7 Ook Sadorsky (1999) deelt zijn data op in twee subperioden. Hij vindt dat er in 1986 een structurele breuk is. Door deze structurele breuk is het moeilijk de resultaten van de periode vóór begin 1986 te vergelijken met deze ná begin 1986. Daarom gebruik ik data vanaf ten vroegste 1986M01. Omdat de periode hierdoor matig kort is, gebruik ik maandelijkse data.
Macro-economische variabelen
In mijn model gebruik ik 3 macro-economische variabelen, namelijk interest rates (IR), output (IP) en wisselkoersen(EX). Voor de interest rates gebruik ik de 3-maandelijkse Euribor-koers voor de
7 Kilian stelt dat, in de jaren 1970, Amerikaanse autoconstructeurs geen kleine, energie-efficiënte auto’s maakten, waardoor consumenten kleine auto’s uit andere landen kochten. Daardoor was de Amerikaanse auto-industrie gevoelig voor stijgende energieprijzen en de dalende vraag naar grote auto’s. In de jaren 1980 werd het verschil tussen Amerikaanse en andere auto-industrie veel kleiner, omdat de Amerikaanse autoconstructeurs ook kleine, energie-efficiënte wagens begonnen te maken en andere autoconstructeurs op de markt van de grotere wagens kwamen. Daarom werd de Amerikaanse auto-industrie minder kwetsbaar voor olieschokken.
23
Eurozone. Voor de output gebruik ik de Europese industriële productie van de OECD. De wisselkoers is die van de Eurozone. Al deze data zijn gevonden in Eurostat. De output en wisselkoersen zijn niet uitgedrukt in procenten. Dit is niet nodig, omdat deze variabelen enkel in de regressie gevoegd worden ter verbetering van het model. Omdat ik de reactie van de aandelenreturns op deze variabelen niet interpreteer, zet ik ze ook niet om in procenten.
In een eerste regressie (appendix A), test ik de toegevoegde waarde van de 3 macro-economische variabelen aan het model aan de hand van de regressie voor de volledige markt. Daaruit blijkt dat, hoewel niet alle macro-variabelen significant verschillen van nul, de adjusted R² stijgt als de variabelen in het model opgenomen worden. In deze regressie verschilt enkel de industrial production (IP) en de interest rate (IR) significant van 0, maar in het onderzoek zal ik ook de wisselkoers (EX) gebruiken, omdat die bij verschillende sectoren wel een extra verklarende waarde toevoegt aan het model.
Aandelenkoersen
De aandelenkoersen zijn de maandelijkse aandelenkoersen van 104 sectoren van Datastream. Deze sectoren staan beschreven in appendix B.
Structurele schokken
Ik gebruik de structurele olieschokken uit Peersman en Van Robays (2009). Een olieschokreeks is volgens hen een combinatie van 3 factoren: de olieprijs, de olieproductie en de globale economische activiteit. Voor elk type schok is er een verschillende combinatie van bewegingen van deze factoren 8. Een positieve olieaanbodschok wordt geassocieerd met een stijging van de olieprijs, een daling van de olieproductie en een daling van de globale economische activiteit. Een positieve olievraagschok gedreven door economische activiteit wordt geassocieerd met een stijging van de olieprijs, de
8 Dit zijn de zogenaamde ̈sign restrictions̉ die Peersman en Van Robays (2009) gebruiken om de olie-schokken te identificeren.
24
olieproductie en de globale economische activiteit. Een positieve oliespecifieke vraagschok wordt dan weer geassocieerd met een stijging van de olieprijs, een stijging van de productie en een daling van de globale economische activiteit.
Vertragingen
Olieschokken hebben niet enkel effect op de economie en meer specifiek, op aandelen, in de periode waarin ze voorkomen. Volgens Sadorsky (1999) reageren ‘real stock returns’ onmiddellijk op olieschokken en duurt dit effect 3 maanden. Lee en Ni (2002) vinden grotere vertragingen van de reactie van output. Volgens hen reageert de output van verschillende sectoren allemaal 10 maanden na een olieschok, en herstellen ze rond de 18 maanden na de olieschok. Volgens deze resultaten en aangezien volgens de resultaten van de regressie in appendix A, aandelenreturns in relatie staan tot output, zullen de olieschokken dus via de output 10 maanden later nog een invloed hebben op aandelenreturns. Om genoeg vrijheidsgraden te behouden, beperk ik het aantal vertragingen tot maximum 18 maanden. Uit een preliminair onderzoek op alle sectoren, met alle 18 vertragingen voor elke schok, blijkt dat iedere schok via verschillende vertragingen een invloed heeft op aandelenkoersen. Voor olieaanbodschokken is dat vooral in de periode van 0 tot 3 maanden en van 9 tot 12 maanden na de schok. Voor oliespecifieke vraagschokken reageren de meeste aandelenkoersen met vertragingen van 0 tot 3 maanden en van 6 tot 10 maanden, en voor olieschokken door wijzingen in de algemene vraag naar goederen en diensten, leveren vertragingen van 0, 2, 6 en 15 en 16 maanden het meeste resultaat op. Op basis van deze resultaten neem ik voor olieaanbodschokken 12 vertragingen, voor oliespecifieke vraagschokken 10 vertragingen en voor globale vraagschokken 16 vertragingen op in de vergelijking. Dit aantal vertragingen levert voor elk type schok een aanvaardbare Schwarz-waarde op. Om al deze vertragingen in mijn model te kunnen opnemen, zonder teveel vrijheidsgraden te verliezen, splits ik de regressie op in 3 deelregressies. Dit kan omdat oliespecifieke vraagschokken, globale vraagschokken en olieaanbodschokken onafhankelijk zijn van elkaar.
25
Regressievergelijkingen
In een volgende regressiereeks, schat ik de invloed van de drie olieschokken op de aandelenkoersen van 102 verschillende sectoren (SECTORRETURNS)9 en op de volledige markt 10. Dit zijn de 3 regressievergelijkingen 11:
?
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9*\
- 9 +
10
*V
- 10 +
+
14 * V
11 * V - 14 +
- 11 + 15 * V
12 * V - 15 +
- 12 + 16 * V
13 * V
- 13
- 16 (11)
?
=
2+
1*
+
2*
+
3*
+
*\
- 2 +
3 *\
- 3 + 4 *\
*\
- 6 +
7 *\
- 7 +
*\
( - 10)
88 * V
0 *V
+
- 4 + - 8 +
1 *V 5 *\ 9 *V
- 1 + - 5 +
2 6
- 9 + 10 (12)
Vergelijking 10 behandelt aanbodschokken (Oaanb), vergelijking 11 behandelt olieschokken door wijzigingen in de globale vraag naar goederen en diensten (Oglob), en vergelijking 12 bevat oliespecifieke vraagschokken (Ospec).
9 Deze aandelenkoersen zijn gecorrigeerd voor seizoenseffecten. 10 De resultaten van deze regressies voor elke sector zijn terug te vinden in appendix C. 11 De regressievergelijkingen zijn, indien nodig, gecorrigeerd voor autocorrelatie en heteroskedasticiteit, aan de hand van de Newey-West correctie.
26
2.2 Resultaten 2.2.1. Algemene resultaten voor de 3 schokken
Eerst bespreek ik de resultaten van de regressies op de marktindex-returns 12. Ik leg uit hoe de markt reageert op de 3 types olieschokken. Hierbij leg ik de nadruk op de richting en de timing van de reactie. De resultaten in appendix C zijn telkens een gemiddelde reactie op 1-standaarddeviatie olieschok. De reactie van de olieprijs op de verschillende types olieschokken is op dit moment als volgt: na een olieaanbodschok stijgt de olieprijs met 3%, na een vraagschok gedreven door economische activiteit en na een oliespecifieke vraagschok stijgt de olieprijs met 4%. De resultaten van dit onderzoek zal ik omzetten naar en interpreteren als reacties op een 10%-olieprijsstijging. Deze redenering wordt aangehouden in de rest van hoofdstuk 2.2. Uit de resultaten van de regressie blijkt dat aandelenkoersen vooral reageren op oliespecifieke vraagschokken. Als olieprijzen stijgen door dergelijke schokken, dan dalen de meeste aandelenkoersen significant. Deze reactie is op het 5%-significantieniveau waar te nemen bij 44 van de 103 sectoren, en op het 10%-significantieniveau zelfs bij 76 van de 103 sectoren. Dit is ook te zien in de marktindex (vergelijking 12). Door hogere olieprijzen daalt de vraag naar allerlei goederen en diensten. Dit kan via verschillende transmissiekanalen: het beschikbare inkomenseffect, het onzekerheidseffect en het precautionary savings effect. Deze negatieve reactie is consistent met de bevindingen van Kilian en Park (2008).
Va ria b e le
Co ë f f ic ie n t
p - w a a rd e
C
-3,74
0,32
IR
- 1 ,8 3
0,02
12 In deze 3 regressies vindt ik aan de hand van de LM-test en de White-test resp. autocorrelatie en heteroscedasticiteit. De regressies zijn hiervoor gecorrigeerd aan de hand van de Newey-West correctie.
27
EX
1,28
0,82
IP
4 8 ,4 0
0,00
Os p e c
0,73
0,37
Os p e c ( - 1 )
0,18
0,79
Os p e c ( - 2 )
-0,58
0,42
Os p e c ( - 3 )
-0,53
0,38
Os p e c ( - 4 )
-0,30
0,71
Os p e c ( - 5 )
-0,90
0,28
Os p e c ( - 6 )
-0,0,28
0,72
Os p e c ( - 7 )
-1 ,7 8
0,06
Os p e c ( - 8 )
-0,98
0,19
Os p e c ( - 9 )
-0,85
0,17
Os p e c ( - 1 0 )
-1 ,7 5
0,07
ADJ(R²) = 0,561722 TABEL 1: EFFECT VAN EEN OLI ESPECI FI EKE VRAAGSCHOK OP DE MARKTI NDEX
De resultaten zijn voorgesteld in tabel 1. In de tabel zijn de coëfficiënten die significante verschillen van 0 vetgedrukt. Uit deze resultaten blijkt dat er een negatieve reactie is, die matig significant is in de 7de en de 10de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok. Als de olieprijs met 10% stijgt, dan daalt de waarde van het marktaandeel in deze perioden met resp. gemiddeld 1,78 en 1,75 %-punt. De reactie op olieaanbodschokken is minder uitgesproken. In 15 sectoren is er reactie zichtbaar op het 5%-significantieniveau en in bijna de helft van de sectoren op het 10%-significantie niveau. De vertraging van deze reacties is voor iedere sector verschillend. Het minder uitgesproken karakter van de reacties op een olie-aanbodschok komt tot uiting in de reactie van de marktindex (tabel 2). Enkel in de tweede, de zesde
en de negende maand na een 10%¨-olieprijsstijging is er een matig
significante stijging van resp. gemiddeld 1,43 , 1,53 en 2,17%-punt.
Va ria b e le
Coëfficient
p - w a a rd e
C
- 6 ,2 2
0,07
IR
- 1 ,7 7
0,04
EX
5,40
0,55 28
IP
6 7 ,3 3
0,00
Oa a n b
1,37
0,20
Oa a n b ( - 1 )
0,87
0,24
Oa a n b ( - 2 )
1 ,4 3
0,07
Oa a n b ( - 3 )
0,80
0,28
Oa a n b ( - 4 )
0,70
0,34
Oa a n b ( - 5 )
1,07
0,23
Oa a n b ( - 6 )
1 ,5 3
0,08
Oa a n b ( - 7 )
0,03
0,96
Oa a n b ( - 8 )
0,93
0,21
Oa a n b ( - 9 )
2 ,1 7
0,05
Oa a n b ( - 1 0 )
0,30
0,74
Oa a n b ( - 1 1 )
0,37
0,68
Oa a n b ( - 1 2 )
1,10
0,20
ADJ(R²) = 0,537482 TABEL 2: EFFECT VAN EEN OLI EAANBODSCHOK OP DE MARKTI NDEX
Iets minder dan de helft van alle sectoren reageert op een aanbodschok, waarvan slechts 14% op het 5%-significantieniveau. Dit komt overeen met de mening van Kilian en Park (2007), die beweren dat olieaanbodschokken minder belangrijk zijn om de variatie in aandelenkoersen te verklaren. Deze sectoren die de invloed voelen van een olieaanbodschok reageren allemaal positief, een stijging van de olieprijs doet de waarde van hun aandelen stijgen en omgekeerd. De richting van de reactie eerder tegenintuïtief, omdat, bij een olieaanbodschok, een stijgende olieprijs voor een daling in de economische activiteit zorgt. De helft van de sectoren die reageren, doen dit in de eerste 3 maanden na de schok, de andere helft tussen de 9de en de 12de maand na de schok. Ook op ‘aggregate demand shocks’ of olieschokken door wijzigingen in de globale vraag naar goederen en diensten, is er weinig reactie. Dit is zichtbaar in de tabel 3, waar geen enkele coëfficiënt significant verschilt van 0. Enkele sectoren die wel reageren, reageren onmiddellijk positief en kortstondig op een dergelijke schok. Dit komt volgens Kilian en Park(2007) omdat de olieschok veroorzaakt wordt door een hogere
29
globale vraag naar goederen en diensten, dus door een economische ‘boost’, die dan onmiddellijk weer tenietgedaan wordt door de hogere (olie-)prijzen.
Va ria b e le
Co ë f f ic ie n t
p - w a a rd e
C
- 6 ,1 5
0,07
IR
- 1 ,3 8
0,04
EX
1,08
0,87
IP
5 3 ,3 5
0,00
Og lo b
0,43
0,48
Og lo b ( - 1 )
0,93
0,11
Og lo b ( - 2 )
-0,03
0,96
Og lo b ( - 3 )
-0,38
0,60
Og lo b ( - 4 )
0,50
0,31
Og lo b ( - 5 )
0,60
0,32
Og lo b ( - 6 )
-0,23
0,73
Og lo b ( - 7 )
0,30
0,59
Og lo b ( - 8 )
0,00
0,99
Og lo b ( - 9 )
-0,20
0,74
Og lo b ( - 1 0 )
0,03
0,99
Og lo b ( - 1 1 )
0,58
0,34
Og lo b ( - 1 2 )
0,38
0,52
Og lo b ( - 1 3 )
0,50
0,45
Og lo b ( - 1 4 )
0,43
0,47
Og lo b ( - 1 5 )
0,93
0,13
Og lo b ( - 1 6 )
0,73
0,22
Og lo b ( - 1 7 )
0,75
0,26
Og lo b ( - 1 8 )
0,10
0,87
30
ADJ(R²)=0,506375 TABEL 3: EFFECT VAN EEN GLOBALE VRAAGSCHOK OP DE MARKTI NDEX
2.2.2. Resultaten voor de verschillende sectoren
In dit hoofdstuk bespreek ik meer gedetailleerd de gemiddelde reacties van verschillende sectoren op een olieprijsstijging van 10%-punt. De meeste reacties zijn reacties op oliespecifieke vraagschokken, daar deze schokken de meeste invloed hebben op aandelenreturns. Ik bespreek ook welke sectoren positief reageren (na een olieaanbodschok of een globale vraagschok), om zo intersectoriële verschuivingen te zoeken en te verklaren. De financiële sector reageert overwegend negatief op een olieschok. Dit komt
omdat
aandelenkoersen van allerhande sectoren vooral reageren op oliespecifieke vraagschokken en omdat hun reactie dan meestal negatief is. Dit zorgt voor wantrouwen in het financiële instituties, waardoor bijvoorbeeld beleggingen in de banksector minder populair worden en dus minder gaan renderen. Ook in enkele delen van de verzekeringssector is deze negatieve reactie te zien, onder andere bij de eigendommen en ongevallenverzekeringen. Dit komt waarschijnlijk door de negatieve tendens in de bouw- en onroerende goederensector (zie verder). In andere delen van de verzekeringssector, zoals full-line verzekeringen en levensverzekeringen, is dan weer onmiddellijk na een olieaanbodschok een stijging van de aandelen te zien. De aandelen van primaire goederen 13 dalen met 2,34 en 2,53%-punt in resp. de 7de en 10de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok. Dit kan te maken hebben met het precautionary savings effect, waardoor consumenten op alles besparen, uit schrik voor bijvoorbeeld werkloosheid. Een belangrijk resultaat uit het onderzoek is echter de stijging van de waarde van aandelen in primaire goederen, 2 en 6 maand na een positieve olieaanbodschok met resp. 1,92 en 1,88 %-punt. Dit kan te maken hebben met het beschikbare inkomenseffect, het onzekerheidseffect en/of het precautionary savings effect. Als olieprijzen stijgen, dan gaan mensen meer belang hechten aan het voldoen aan de primaire behoeften, omdat ze onzeker zijn over het toekomstige verloop van de olieprijs, en omdat het aandeel uit hun beschikbare inkomen dat opgaat naar secundaire goederen slinkt en er dus procentueel meer uitgegeven wordt aan primaire goederen. Ook hier is dus sprake van een
13 Primaire goederen zijn goederen die noodzakelijk zijn om te voldaan de primaire levensbehoeften, bijvoorbeeld brood, water en groenten.
31
veranderend consumptiepatroon, dat zich door een verandering in de consumentenvraag vertaalt in deze effecten op de aandelenreturns. Echter, vanaf de 10de maand na diezelfde olieaanbodschok, zijn er in de regressieresultaten negatieve coëfficiënten waar te nemen. Hoewel deze niet significant zijn, kan dit betekenen dat op lange termijn, de returns weer dalen en dat het consumptiepatroon van voor de olieschok zich herstelt. Aan de hand van deze regressie,die slechts 12 vertragingen bevat, kan deze veronderstelling echter niet bevestigd worden. Ook in verdere resultaten, wordt enkel de korte termijn besproken. Het kan dus zijn dat effecten, in deze paper beschreven, niet blijvend zijn en dat niet alle effecten kunnen waargenomen worden. Om deze (al dan niet tijdelijke) stijging te verklaren, zouden we dus een daling van de waarde van aandelen moeten zien bij secundaire of luxegoederen. De resultaten van dit onderzoek zijn echter niet eenduidig, want een groot deel van deze sectoren kennen een stijging in hun aandelenreturn als de olieprijs stijgt door een kleiner olieaanbod of een grotere globale vraag. De reis- en toerismesector bijvoorbeeld, ziet zijn aandelen significant stijgen met ongeveer 6,67 %-punt onmiddellijk na een olieaanbodschok. Deze stijging is significant tot in de tweede maand na de schok. Een gelijkaardige stijging doet zich voor in de reis- en ontspanningssector, in de eerste 3 maanden na eenzelfde schok. Diezelfde sector reageert wel negatief op oliespecifieke vraagschokken. Dit gebeurt dan wel met een grotere vertraging: waarden tussen -0,65 en -0,97 %-punt in de 7de tot de 10de maand na een dergelijke schok. Andere sectoren bevestigen onze theorie iets meer. Zo stijgen de aandelen van de dranksector in de 6de maand na een olieaanbodschok matig significant, met 2,22%-punt. In de zevende en de tiende maand echter na een oliespecifieke vraagschok, daalt de aandelenkoers dan weer met resp. 0,55 en 0,63 %-punt. Voor de brouwerijsector is de reactie gelijkaardig. De aandelen van de kledij- en accessoiresector stijgen matig significant bij een olieaanbodschok en een globale vraagschok, maar in de zevende maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok, dalen de aandelen met 0,87 %-punt. De kledingsector reageert dan weer zeer significant negatief op een oliespecifieke vraagschok, met van onmiddellijk na een dergelijke schok tot 10 maanden later, dalingen in de aandelenreturns met 1,07 tot 1,78 %-punt. Het veranderende consumptiepatroon door het beschikbare inkomenseffect, het onzekerheidseffect en/of het precautionary savings effect, wordt ook volgens volgende sectoren eenduidig bevestigd. De aandelen van duurzame huishoudproducten-sectoren reageren met een matig significante daling van 0,28 %-punt in de 8ste maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok. De hotelsector reageert significant in de 7de tot de 10de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok, de waarde van de aandelen 32
daalt dan met 0,81 tot 1,38 punt. In de 7de , de 8ste en de 10de maand na een dergelijke schok, daalt ook de waarde van de aandelen in de speelgoedsector met resp. 0,65 , 0,56 en 0,79 %-punt. De destillatie- en wijnsector ziet zijn aandelen matig significant, maar zeer sterk zakken, onmiddellijk na een oliespecifieke vraagschok en in de 7de, 9de en de 10de maand erna. In de 10de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok is de reactie het sterkst met een daling van 4,19 %-punt na een 10%olieprijsstijging. Ook de auto en auto-onderdelensector ziet zijn aandelen significant dalen in de 3de en de 7de tot de 10de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok. In de auto-onderdelensector is de daling 0,23 tot 0,45 %-punt groot, en in de autosector zelf dalen de aandelen met 0,56 tot 0,96 %-punt. Dit kan wijzen op het bestaan van operating cost-effecten. Daar de resultaten die de re-allocatie van secundaire naar primaire goederen bevestigen, significanter zijn dan de resultaten die deze theorie tegenspreken, kunnen we stellen dat het beschikbare inkomenseffect en het precautionary savings effect zorgen voor deze intersectoriële shifts. De theorie wordt ook bevestigd door de ‘consumer discretionary index’, die een index is voor volgende sectoren: auto’s, mode, horeca en luxegoederen. Een oliespecifieke vraagschok zorgt voor een eerder significante daling van 0,79 en 0,80 %-punt in resp. de 7de en 10ste maand na de schok. Enkele resultaten uit dit onderzoek zijn echter niet te verklaren met deze theorie, namelijk de stijging van de aandelenreturns uit de elektro- en elektrische consumptiegoederen en technologische producten na een olie-aanbodschok. Daar deze goederen als luxegoederen/duurzame goederen aanzien worden, zijn deze resultaten tegenintuïtief. Dat is ook het geval bij de aandelen van full line verzekeringen en levensverzekeringen, die onmiddellijk na een olieaanbodschok stijgen. Een verklaring zou kunnen zijn dat deze sectoren door beleggers aanzien worden als ‘zekere’ sectoren, en waarin ze dus meer beleggen in onzekere tijden, zoals na een olieaanbodschok. Dit is ook het geval bij de telecom- en IT-sector De sector index voor telecom, media en IT reageert met een significante stijging van 2,26 en 4,56 %-punt in de 8ste en 9de maand na een olieaanbodschok. Voor de telecomsector kan dit verklaard worden door het feit dat deze sector aanzien wordt als een defensieve sector, waarin beleggers vooral gaan investeren in crisisperioden. Ronald Doeswijk14 argumenteert dit met de stabiele dividenden in de telecomsector. De kasstroom van
14
De Telegraaf, 05/01/2009, http://www.telegraaf.nl/overgeld/rubriek/beleggen/2930767/__Telecomsector_goede_schuilplaats_bij_crisis__.html. (25/04/2010).
33
telecombedrijven is volgens hem goed bestand tegen een economische dip, door eerdere kostenhervormingen. Verder kunnen we concluderen dat er indicatie is dat de re-allocatie zich voordoet na een vertraging van 7 tot 10 maanden. Dit kan verklaren waarom de reis-, toerisme- en ontspanningssector, en de luchtvaartsector, hun aandelen zien stijgen alvorens te dalen en waarom ze dus niet onmiddellijk dalen, kort na een olieaanbodschok en een globale vraagschok. Deze laatste sectoren hebben veel te maken met transport, en zijn daarom eerder olie-intensief. Hogere olieprijzen zouden dus in de daaropvolgende maanden moeten zorgen voor hogere kosten, lagere winstmarges en dus lagere aandelenkoersen. Dat dit niet het geval is, kan erop wijzen dat olie-intensiviteit, en dus het inputkosteneffect minder belangrijk is ter verklaring van de reactie van aandelenkoersen op olieschokken, en dat vraageffecten een grotere rol spelen dan aanbodseffecten. In de voedingssector zien we significante dalingen in de 7de tot 10de maand na een oliespecifieke schok. De aandelen van de voedingssector dalen met 1,32 tot 1,92 %-punt, terwijl voedingsproducenten volgen met dalingen van 1,12 tot 2,13 %-punt. Deze resultaten zijn moeilijk te interpreteren omdat de voedingssector zeer breed is. Deze resultaten worden beïnvloed door luxegoederen, zoals de restaurantsector en dure voeding zoals vis- en schaaldieren. Ook primaire producten zoals goedkopere vleessoorten en brood behoren tot deze sector. Het is daarom moeilijk om verschuivingen binnen deze sector gedetailleerd te beschrijven. Wel kunnen we stellen dat de aandelenreturns in de voedingssector dalen, wat kan wijzen op de invloed van het beschikbare inkomenseffect en/of het precautionary savings effect. De onroerende goederensector kent een significante, langdurige daling van hun aandelenkoersen. Zo is er onmiddellijk tot 4 maanden na een oliespecifieke vraagschok een daling van 0,46 tot 0,70 %punt. In de 7de tot de 10de maand is de daling sterker, met 0,87 %-punt en blijft die duren tot zeker de 10de maand na diezelfde olieschok. Een gelijkaardige, maar sterkere reactie is ook te zien in de bouwsector, waar bijvoorbeeld de aandelen van bouwmaterialen zakken met 1,06 tot 1,40 %-punt in de eerste 3 maanden en met 1,01 en 1,88%-punt in de 7de tot 10de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok. De negatieve tendens in deze sectoren na een oliespecifieke vraagschok zet zich voort in de hypotheeksector. Daar dalen de aandelen in de eerste 3 maanden met gemiddeld 0,55 tot 0,81 %punt. Ook in de 7de en 10de maand na een olieschok zijn gelijkaardige dalingen waar te nemen. Deze langdurige reacties kunnen te maken hebben met het beschikbare inkomenseffect en het onzekerheidseffect of precautionary savings effect, waarbij gezinnen en investeerders de aankoop of bouw van een nieuwe woning uitstellen. 34
De gezondheidszorg ondervindt geen invloed van olieschokken. Dit kan zijn omdat de meeste medische ingrepen en diensten noodzakelijk zijn. Een andere reden is dat de Europese gezondheidszorg zo uitgebouwd is dat persoonlijke bijdragen beperkt zijn, waardoor olieprijzen minder invloed hebben op persoonlijke beslissingen in verband met medische ingrepen en dergelijke. De aandelenkoersen van de ‘drug retailers’ sector15 dalen wel significant, met 1,98 tot 3,58 %-punt in de eerste maanden na een olieschok, en, iets minder significant, 3,27 en 2,70 %-punt in de 7de en de 8ste maand na een schok. De daling in de eerste maanden kan veroorzaakt worden door aanbodseffecten, namelijk door de olie-intensiteit (inputkosten effect). Daar deze sector naast medicijnen ook secundaire producten zoals cosmetica en voedingssupplementen bevat, kan de daling in de 7de en de 8ste maand na de olieschok veroorzaakt zijn door het beschikbare inkomenseffect en het precautionary savings effect op deze minder noodzakelijke producten. Deze laatste redenering kan ook geldig zijn voor de aandelen van medische leveranciers, die onmiddellijk en 2 maanden na een oliespecifieke vraagschok matig significant dalen met resp. 6,14 en 0,22 %punt, en 7 tot 10 maanden na diezelfde schok significant en sterk dalen van 5,39 tot 9,99 %-punt. Als olieprijzen stijgen, zullen normaalgezien beleggers hun portefeuille aanpassen en er meer energieaandelen in opnemen. Daarom zouden stijgende olieprijzen eveneens de prijzen van andere energieproducten zoals gas en elektriciteit moeten doen stijgen. De energiesector reageert echter opvallend negatief op een oliespecifieke vraagschok. Dit doet vermoeden dat niet het aanbodseffect de belangrijkste rol speelt, maar wel vraageffecten. Indexen voor olie- en gasaandelen tonen matig significante dalingen van 3,27 en 3,46 %-punt in resp. de 7de en de 10de maand na een olieschok. Wanneer enkel de oliesector (benodigdheden en diensten) wordt bekeken, dan reageren de aandelen onmiddellijk voldoende significant met een kleine daling van 0,11 %-punt. In de 7de tot 10de maand na een olieschok reageren olieaandelen significant met een daling van 0,12 tot 0,21 %-punt. Dit toont aan dat de olieaankoop en -consumptie grotendeels, maar niet volledig inelastisch is tegenover olieprijswijzigingen. De onmiddellijke kleine daling kan bijvoorbeeld verklaard worden door een verminderde aankoop van stookolie, omdat gezinnen uitstellen om hun tank te vullen als de prijs net gestegen is. De dalingen van de olieaandelen na 7 maanden kunnen dan verklaard worden door het precautionary savings effect. In de auto-industrie, wordt bijvoorbeeld bij positieve olieschokken minder met meer verbruikende auto’s gereden en worden deze auto’s dan vervangen door minder energieverbruikende exemplaren. Gasaandelen ondervinden minder invloed van olieschokken, terwijl elektriciteitsaandelen zeer sterke dalingen vertonen, van 0,49 tot 0,95 %-punt,
15
Dit is de productie van medische producten, zoals medicatie (met en zonder voorschrift), cosmetica, toiletgerei, etc.
35
in de 7de tot 10de maand na een olieschok. Dit zou kunnen verklaard worden door het precautionary savings effect en het beschikbare inkomenseffect, waardoor gezinnen zullen letten op hun elektriciteitsverbruik. De industriële sector 16 reageert dus negatief op oliespecifieke vraagschokken en dit vooral in de 7de en de 10de maand na een dergelijke schok, met een daling van de aandelen van resp. 1,95 en 1,87 %punt. Dit effect wordt doorgevoerd in de andere takken van de industriële waardeketen, waar de aandelen in de 7de tot de 10de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok nog significanter dalen. De grondstoffensectoren, zoals de ijzer- en staalindustrie, de niet-ijzerhoudende metalen, chemische grondstoffen en basisgrondstoffen reageren significant negatief met eenzelfde vertraging. Hun aandelen dalen van 0,67 tot 2,42 %-punt. Ook transportsectoren worden beïnvloed door de negatieve reactie van de industrie. De maritieme sector kent, met vertragingen van 7 tot 10 maanden, significante dalingen van 1,62 tot 3,12 %-punt. De aandelen van industriële transportsector dalen in diezelfde periode matig significant met 0,95 en 1,00 %-punt. In de vrachtwagensector en de transportdiensten dalen de aandelen met resp. ongeveer 0,44 %-punten 0,06%-punt. Ook de aandelen van de industriële machinesector en de industriële ingenieurssector, dalen in diezelfde periode significant met 0,31 tot 1,32 %-punt. Verder dalen ook de aandelen in de maritieme sector onmiddellijk na een oliespecifieke vraagschok met 1,92 %-punt. Een andere verklaring dan het doorgegeven vraageffect van alle subsectoren kan te maken hebben met het aanbodseffect. Grondstoffensectoren en transportsectoren zijn eerder olie-intensief, en dus kunnen hogere kosten zorgen voor lagere winstmarges
en dus
lagere aandelenreturns
(het
inputkosteneffect). De resultaten kunnen een indicatie geven dat olieprijzen een invloed hebben op aandelenreturns via aanbodseffecten. Dit is te zien bij eerder olie-intensieve1 7 sectoren, zoals de ‘toeristische transportsector’18, ‘drug retailers’ de grondstoffensectoren en transportsectoren, waar hogere olieprijzen voor lagere aandelenreturns zorgen. Die lagere aandelenreturns kunnen het gevolg zijn van hogere kosten door de hogere olie-intensiteit, maar ook van een vraageffecten, zoals intersectoriële shifts. Ook de bosbouw- en de papiersector tonen dalingen na oliespecifieke vraagschokken en een enkele,
16 De industriële sector is de geäggregeerde sector, die ondermeer alle productie- en bouwsectoren bevatten. Deelsectoren hiervan zijn bijvoorbeeld de eerder vermelde autosector, brouwerijsector, textielsector, energiesector, de elektronische consumentengoederensector, en de chemische sector en staalsector. 17 Zie de tabel ̈Cost of oil and natural gas for each dollar of sale’ uit Lee en Ni (2002), p 827 18 De ̈toeristische transportsectoren̉ definieer ik hier als de reis-, toerisme- en ontspanningssectoren en de luchtvaart
36
matig significante daling na een aanbodschok. Dit kan ook hier betekenen dat de olie-intensiteit zorgt voor hogere kosten en dus lagere aandelenreturns, dus het bestaan van het aanbodseffect. Maar de dalingen van aandelenreturns in de meer olie-intensieve sectoren zijn klein (bijvoorbeeld voor de papiersector rond 0,30%-punt) in vergelijking met dalingen van minder olie-intensieve sectoren. Over het algemeen reageren consumenten-sectoren sterker negatief dan olie-intensieve sectoren, wat doet vermoeden dat vraageffecten belangrijker zijn dan aanbodseffecten om wijzigingen in aandelenreturns te verklaren. Dit is ook te zien in de stijging van de toeristische transportsector, in de eerste maanden na een olieaanbodschok, en in de dalende aandelenreturns van diverse energiesectoren na een oliespecifieke vraagschok. Ik deel dus de mening van Lee en Ni (2002), die stellen dat olieschokken een veel grotere impact hebben op aandelen via de vraagzijde, dan via de aanbodszijde van de economie, en dat de olieintensiteit van een sector dus weinig invloed heeft op de grootte van de invloed van een olieschok.
2.3. Asymmetrie
In een volgende reeks regressies test ik of er sprake is van asymmetrie. Ik concentreer me hierbij op oliespecifieke vraagschokken, omdat dit type schok de meeste reacties teweegbrengt. Testen op asymmetrie doe ik door de oliespecifieke vraagschokken op te delen in positieve en negatieve schokken, en deze in een(zelfde) regressie op te nemen. Deze regressie voer ik dan opnieuw uit op elke sector.
2.3.1. Marktindex
Eerst kijk ik naar de marktindex of er asymmetrie is. De output van de regressievergelijking is te vinden in tabel 4 en appendix D. Deze tabel geeft de reactie weer op een 1-standaarddeviatie oliespecifieke vraagschok. De resultaten zijn hier niet omgezet naar een 10%-olieprijswijziging, omdat de interpretatie van de grootte van de reactie nu niet het belangrijkst is, maar wel de asymmetrie. In de tabel zijn de coëfficiënten die significante verschillen van 0 vetgedrukt. In de tabel zijn Ospec-(t) en Ospec+(t) gedefinieerd als volgt: 37
( )< 0 ( )= 0
ı
0, \ Ospec( t) , V
Ospec+(t) = En
Ospec( t), Ospec( t) < 0 0, Ospec( t) = 0
Va ria b e le
ı
Ospec-(t)=
Co ë f f ic ië n t
S t d . Erro r 308,66
C
- 6 5 0 ,6 9
IR
- 8 4 ,5 6
25,69
EX
245,30
154,04
IP
1 2 6 2 ,6 9
322,94
Os p e c -
- 9 5 ,3 8
31,39
Os p e c +
23,68
46,33
Os p e c - ( - 1 )
- 8 2 ,1 3
45,26
Os p e c + ( - 1 )
36,90
46,27
Os p e c - ( - 2 )
- 1 4 3 ,6 9
45,77
68,77
46,42
- 1 1 7 ,2 5
38,85
47,72
45,24
- 1 1 8 ,6 5
45,34
80,04
46,68
- 1 5 2 ,2 3
48,39
( -5 )
8 6 ,9 1
38,85
Os p e c - ( - 6 )
- 8 7 ,5 9
42,42
7 0 ,5 4
41,86
- 1 4 5 ,6 1
49,98
13,17
37,57
- 1 5 4 ,3 1
51,78
65,30
43,85
Os p e c
+
( -2 )
Os p e c - ( - 3 ) Os p e c
+
( -3 )
Os p e c - ( - 4 ) Os p e c
+
( -4 )
Os p e c - ( - 5 ) Os p e c
Os p e c
+
+
( -6 )
Os p e c - ( - 7 ) Os p e c
+
( -7 )
Os p e c - ( - 8 ) Os p e c
+
( -8 )
38
Os p e c - ( - 9 ) Os p e c
+
+
53,57
57,19
55,54
- 1 7 6 ,6 8
72,72
72,56
51,32
( -9 )
Os p e c - ( - 1 0 ) Os p e c
- 1 2 9 ,8 7
( -1 0 )
TABEL 4: ASYMMETRI E, EFFECT VAN EEN OLI ESPECI FI EKE VRAAGSCHOK OP DE MARKTI NDEX
Ik bekijk het interval van iedere coëfficiënt: ë?
-
.V
;
ëV
ë
+
.\
Dit geeft de resultaten in tabel 5. In de 1ste, de 4de, de 5de, de 6de en de 9de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok is er geen of weinig indicatie tot asymmetrie. In de 5de maand bijvoorbeeld kan de coëfficiënt voor een negatieve olieschok een waarde aannemen die tegengesteld aan, en even groot als de coëfficiënt voor de positieve schok is, bijvoorbeeld -110 en +110. Ook in de 0de, 2de,3de, 8ste en 10de is dit, weliswaar minder uitgesproken, het geval. In de 7de maand na een olieschok, is er een lichte vorm van asymmetrie mogelijk. De coëfficiënt voor de negatieve schok kan geen waarde aannemen die tegengesteld is aan en even groot is als de coëfficiënt voor de positieve schok. De reactie op een positieve oliespecifieke vraagschok kan volgens deze resultaten dus niet tegengesteld zijn aan de reactie op een negatieve oliespecifieke vraagschok.
t o t m ke m
in t e rv -
c o ë ff
in t e rv +
s td . Erro r
Os p e c Os p e c
+ -
Os p e c ( - 1 ) +
Os p e c ( - 1 ) -
Os p e c ( - 2 ) Os p e c
+
( -2 )
-
Os p e c ( - 3 ) Os p e c
+
( -3 )
-
Os p e c ( - 4 ) Os p e c
+
( -4 )
-127
-95,38
-64
31,38
-23
23,68
70
46,33
-127
-82,13
-37
45,25
-9
36,9
83
46,27
-189
-143,69
-98
45,77
22
68,77
115
46,42
-156
-117,25
-78
38,85
2
47,72
93
45,24
-164
-118,65
-73
45,35
33
80,04
127
46,68
39
Os p e c - ( - 5 ) Os p e c
+
( -5 )
Os p e c - ( - 6 ) Os p e c
+
( -6 )
Os p e c - ( - 7 ) Os p e c
+
( -7 )
Os p e c - ( - 8 ) Os p e c
+
( -8 )
Os p e c - ( - 9 ) Os p e c
+
( -9 )
Os p e c - ( - 1 0 ) Os p e c
+
( -1 0 )
-201
-152,23
-104
48,39
48
86,91
126
38,85
-130
-87,59
-45
42,42
29
70,54
112
41,86
-196
-145,61
-96
49,98
-24
13,17
51
37,56
-206
-154,31
-103
51,78
21
65,3
109
43,85
-183
-129,87
-76
53,57
2
57,19
113
55,54
-249
-176,68
-104
72,72
21
72,56
124
51,32
TABEL 5: I NTERVALLEN MARKTI NDEX
Er is dus weinig asymmetrie waar te nemen in de reactie van de marktindex op oliespecifieke vraagschokken.
2.3.2. Resultaten voor de verschillende sectoren
Dezelfde regressievergelijking voor de index voor de primaire consumptiegoederen en voor de consumer discretionairy index (luxegoederen) leveren gelijkaardige resultaten op. Enkel in de 7de maand is er voor beide indexen een indicatie voor asymmetrie. In de eerste regressiereeks, daalden de aandelen van primaire goederen in de 7de en de 10de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok, wat kan te maken hebben met het precautionary savings effect. Het (a)symmetrie-onderzoek toont aan dat er in de 7de maand asymmetrie mogelijk is, waardoor het precautionary savings effect dat de aandelenreturns van primaire goederen beïnvloedt, asymmetrisch kan zijn. In de 10de maand echter, is er geen asymmetrie, dus als het precautionary savings effect daar een rol speelt, is het symmetrisch. In de kledingsector, was er in de eerste regressies een negatieve reactie waar te nemen onmiddellijk na een oliespecifieke vraagschok tot 10 maanden later. In het (a)symmetrieonderzoek, is er in enkele maanden, en vooral onmiddellijk na een schok, een lichte vorm van asymmetrie waar te nemen. Dit is een indicatie dat hier het beschikbare inkomenseffect niet voldoende is om de reactie op een 40
oliespecifieke vraagschok te verklaren, maar dat dit aangevuld moet worden met het precautionary savings effect. Dit effect kan hier dan in een lichte asymmetrische vorm optreden. Ook voor de destillatie- en wijnsector, is er weinig asymmetrie waar te nemen. Enkel in de 7de maand kan het precautionary savingseffect hier in een licht asymmetrische vorm het beschikbare inkomenseffect aanvullen. In de auto- en auto-onderdelensector is er in de 7de en 8ste maand een lichte indicatie voor asymmetrie, waardoor ik vermoed dat het operating cost effect grotendeels, maar niet volledig symmetrisch is. De voedingssector reageert vooral symmetrisch op een oliespecifieke vraagschok. Enkel in de 7de maand kan er asymmetrie bestaan. Daaruit besluit ik dat de negatieve reactie op een dergelijke schok niet alleen kan verklaard worden door het beschikbare inkomenseffect, maar dat ook het precautionary savings effect (in een licht asymmetrische vorm) hierin een rol speelt. De onroerende goederensector ziet zijn aandelenkoersen significant dalen in de eerste 4 en in de 7de tot de 10de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok. Dit kan te maken hebben met het symmetrische beschikbare inkomenseffect, en het onzekerheidseffect of het precautionary savings effect. Uit de resultaten van het (a)symmetrieonderzoek blijkt dat er mogelijk in alle 10 maanden na een olieschok een zeer lichte vorm van asymmetrie is, maar dat die het sterkst is in de eerste 4 maanden na de schok. Dit is een indicatie dat, na een oliespecifieke vraagschok eerst het beschikbare inkomenseffect, samen met het onzekerheidseffect en/of precautionary savings effect een rol speelt. Echter, in de 7de tot 10de maand vermindert de asymmetrie, waardoor, naast het beschikbare inkomens effect, enkel nog het precautionary savings effect in zijn symmetrische vorm een rol kan spelen.
41
3. CONCLUSIE
In mijn paper onderzocht ik welk verband er in de Eurozone bestaat tussen olieschokken en het rendement op aandelen van verschillende sectoren. Uit mijn onderzoek blijkt dat aandelenkoersen vooral reageren op oliespecifieke vraagschokken. Als olieprijzen stijgen door dergelijke schokken, dan dalen de meeste aandelenkoersen significant. De reactie op olieaanbodschokken is minder uitgesproken. Ook op ‘aggregate demand shocks’ of olieschokken door wijzigingen in de globale vraag naar goederen en diensten, is er weinig reactie. In mijn onderzoek vallen enkele verschuivingen op. De aandelenreturns van enkele sectoren dalen matig na een olieschok, terwijl de aandelenreturns van andere sectoren dan weer sterker dalen. Zo dalen de aandelen van luxegoederen, zoals de kledingsector en de wijnsector sterker dan de aandelen van levensnoodzakelijke sectoren, zoals de gezondheidszorg. Verder vindt ik dat olie-intensiteit minder effect heeft op de reactie van aandelenreturns op olieschokken dan intuïtief zou vermoed worden. Over het algemeen reageren consumenten-sectoren sterker negatief dan olie-intensieve sectoren. Dit is een indicatie dat het inputkosten effect eerder klein is, en dat aanbodseffecten minder belangrijk zijn dan vraageffecten. Ik onderzocht of er asymmetrie te vinden is in de vraageffecten. Uit de resultaten van het onderzoek blijkt dat asymmetrie slechts een kleine rol speelt ter verklaring van de reactie van aandelenreturns op olieschokken. Als asymmetrische effecten een rol spelen, is dat vooral in de 7de maand na een oliespecifieke vraagschok. Aan de hand van de resultaten, kan een zeer lichte vorm van asymmetrie vermoed worden, waardoor het bestaan van het operating cost effect, het precautionary savings effect, het onzekerheidseffect en het re-allocatie effect niet volledig uitgesloten kan worden. De resultaten maken echter duidelijk dat deze effecten in hun asymmetrische vorm slechts een zeer klein deel van de reactie van aandelenkoersen op olieschokken kunnen verklaren, en dat vooral symmetrische effecten een rol spelen in de transmissie. Daarom vermoed ik dat het beschikbare inkomenseffect, het operating cost effect en het precautionary savings effect, in hun symmetrische vorm, belangrijkst zijn ter verklaring van de transmissie van schokken op aandelenreturns. Asymmetrische effecten zoals het onzekerheidseffect, het re-allocatie effect en het operating costen het precautionary savings effect in hun asymmetrische vorm hebben geen of slechts een kleine invloed.
42
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46
APPENDIX A: DE TOEGEVOEGDE WAARDE VAN MACRO-ECONOMISCHE VARIABELEN AAN HET MODEL
Dependent Variable: TOTMKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/18/10 Time: 08:09 Sample (adjusted): 1987M07 2008M04 Included observations: 250 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000) Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) SCHGLOB(-17) SCHGLOB(-18) SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
30.06774 26.08968 23.02713 3.686001 2.322432 -6.034153 1.275042 0.147379 -7.588714 -18.44837 -26.03954 -22.89658 12.76030 7.993155 -4.054116 4.096189 -3.243842 -9.675118 -6.474633 -13.94131 -17.55582 -10.05123 1.600456 1.560761 4.807632 16.24218 2.398050 6.864779 21.33955 21.26819 16.06805 -30.70453 -33.04081 -38.57888 -48.91265 -34.13145 -38.99637 -48.63368 -59.81258 -65.09997 -55.87532 -57.21895 1004.254
37.45604 40.34703 40.15152 34.87940 37.55476 35.54542 35.23744 37.12733 37.08352 37.62181 37.79158 36.01471 36.58387 38.18212 35.17664 33.93528 34.74540 35.35727 35.13926 34.17825 35.85209 35.82502 36.94233 34.33322 34.32909 34.84563 34.64011 36.29563 38.57730 38.50841 38.45481 44.76883 47.43350 45.70455 42.84612 43.35015 46.62807 46.69960 47.59330 47.62749 46.23252 47.19949 77.38732
0.802747 0.646632 0.573506 0.105678 0.061841 -0.169759 0.036184 0.003970 -0.204638 -0.490364 -0.689030 -0.635756 0.348796 0.209343 -0.115250 0.120706 -0.093360 -0.273639 -0.184256 -0.407900 -0.489674 -0.280565 0.043323 0.045459 0.140045 0.466118 0.069228 0.189135 0.553163 0.552300 0.417842 -0.685846 -0.696571 -0.844093 -1.141589 -0.787343 -0.836328 -1.041415 -1.256744 -1.366857 -1.208572 -1.212279 12.97699
0.4230 0.5186 0.5669 0.9159 0.9507 0.8654 0.9712 0.9968 0.8381 0.6244 0.4916 0.5256 0.7276 0.8344 0.9084 0.9040 0.9257 0.7846 0.8540 0.6838 0.6249 0.7793 0.9655 0.9638 0.8888 0.6416 0.9449 0.8502 0.5807 0.5813 0.6765 0.4936 0.4869 0.3996 0.2549 0.4320 0.4039 0.2989 0.2103 0.1732 0.2282 0.2268 0.0000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.079897 -0.106791 570.3882 67345930 -1917.721 0.427972 0.999213
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
1004.157 542.1729 15.68577 16.29146 15.92954 0.033155
Dependent Variable: TOTMKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/18/10 Time: 08:09 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000) Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
IR EX IP SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) SCHGLOB(-17) SCHGLOB(-18) SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
-103.0457 17.03312 1801.054 28.97011 58.20148 45.82471 20.36998 37.14437 53.86160 20.29021 38.76834 59.34900 16.59892 -8.121277 12.41598 16.76210 18.96695 -7.254959 -16.44804 11.13888 13.73685 -27.99620 1.431018 -13.77728 -27.66167 11.11134 27.11978 26.30094 42.57018 26.91352 55.98420 48.16507 53.57280 34.48576 -33.42687 -17.75567 -39.11784 -28.87499 -21.23148 -55.70297 -38.39630 -98.41580 -67.54843 -54.15566 -75.80046 -82.02680
32.30354 229.0692 303.6525 24.55341 28.67152 29.34790 27.87165 33.44902 36.41564 26.85371 27.83511 38.24498 29.67892 29.79855 26.97151 25.37184 25.62453 25.20880 29.51320 21.42152 27.02115 28.74555 25.39428 30.42963 27.67731 29.18843 23.14040 26.73350 26.66852 25.79150 25.30248 30.08055 33.15635 27.53522 29.97403 31.99473 37.69704 23.47272 36.19168 36.88989 37.06308 39.34207 33.42067 26.26534 36.35822 352.6882
-3.189921 0.074358 5.931299 1.179881 2.029941 1.561430 0.730849 1.110477 1.479079 0.755583 1.392786 1.551812 0.559283 -0.272539 0.460337 0.660658 0.740187 -0.287795 -0.557312 0.519985 0.508374 -0.973932 0.056352 -0.452759 -0.999435 0.380676 1.171966 0.983820 1.596270 1.043503 2.212597 1.601203 1.615763 1.252424 -1.115194 -0.554956 -1.037690 -1.230151 -0.586640 -1.509980 -1.035972 -2.501541 -2.021157 -2.061867 -2.084824 -0.232576
0.0018 0.9408 0.0000 0.2403 0.0445 0.1209 0.4662 0.2689 0.1416 0.4513 0.1661 0.1232 0.5770 0.7857 0.6461 0.5100 0.4606 0.7740 0.5783 0.6040 0.6121 0.3320 0.9552 0.6515 0.3195 0.7041 0.2434 0.3271 0.1129 0.2987 0.0287 0.1118 0.1086 0.2127 0.2669 0.5799 0.3014 0.2209 0.5585 0.1336 0.3022 0.0136 0.0454 0.0413 0.0391 0.8165
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.683661 0.570683 326.7531 13452718 -1213.036 6.051268 0.000000
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
1238.734 498.6900 14.63996 15.48173 14.98149 0.950074
APPENDIX B: SECTOREN Code
Name
Code
Name
AEROSEM
EMU-DS Aerospace - PRICE INDEX
HVYCNEM
EMU-DS Heavy Con - PRICE INDEX
AIRLNEM
EMU-DS Airlines - PRICE INDEX
IMACHEM
EMU-DS Inds Machinery - PRICE INDEX
APRETEM
EMU-DS Apparel Rtl - PRICE INDEX
INDENEM
EMU-DS Inds Eng - PRICE INDEX
ASSETEM
EMU-DS Asset Managers - PRICE INDEX
INDMTEM
EMU-DS Ind. Met & Mines - PRICE INDEX
AUPRTEM
EMU-DS Auto Parts - PRICE INDEX
INDTREM
EMU-DS Inds Transpt - PRICE INDEX
AUTMBEM
EMU-DS Auto & Parts - PRICE INDEX
INDUSEM
EMU-DS Industrials - PRICE INDEX
AUTOSEM
EMU-DS Automobiles - PRICE INDEX
INSUPEM
EMU-DS Inds Suppliers - PRICE INDEX
BANKSEM
EMU-DS Banks - PRICE INDEX
INVNKEM
EMU-DS Investment Cos. - PRICE INDEX
BDRETEM
EMU-DS Broadline Rtl - PRICE INDEX
INVSVEM
EMU-DS Investment Svs - PRICE INDEX
BEVESEM
EMU-DS Beverages - PRICE INDEX
LFINSEM
EMU-DS Life Insurance - PRICE INDEX
BMATREM
EMU-DS Basic Mats - PRICE INDEX
MARINEM
EMU-DS Marine Transpt - PRICE INDEX
BMATSEM
EMU-DS Build Mat/Fixt - PRICE INDEX
MEDAGEM
EMU-DS Media Agencies - PRICE INDEX
BREWSEM
EMU-DS Brewers - PRICE INDEX
MEDEQEM
EMU-DS Medical Eq - PRICE INDEX
BUSUPEM
EMU-DS Bus Sup Svs - PRICE INDEX
MEDSPEM
EMU-DS Medical Sup - PRICE INDEX
CHEMSEM
EMU-DS Commodity Chem - PRICE INDEX
MINESEM
EMU-DS General Min - PRICE INDEX
CHMSPEM
EMU-DS Spec Chem - PRICE INDEX
MNINGEM
EMU-DS Mining - PRICE INDEX
CLTHGEM
EMU-DS Cloth & Access - PRICE INDEX
MORTFEM
EMU-DS Mortgage Fin - PRICE INDEX
CMPSVEM
EMU-DS Computer Svs - PRICE INDEX
MTUTLEM
EMU-DS Multiutilities - PRICE INDEX
CNDISEM
EMU-DS CONS.DISCRETNRY. - PRICE INDEX
NDRHPEM
EMU-DS Nondur Hh Prd - PRICE INDEX
CNELEEM
EMU-DS Consumer Eltro - PRICE INDEX
NLINSEM
EMU-DS Nonlife Insur - PRICE INDEX
CNSMGEM
EMU-DS Consumer Gds - PRICE INDEX
NOFMSEM
EMU-DS Nonferrous Met - PRICE INDEX
CNSMSEM
EMU-DS Consumer Svs - PRICE INDEX
OILEPEM
EMU-DS Explore & Prdn - PRICE INDEX
CNSTAEM
EMU-DS CONSUMER STAPLES - PRICE INDEX
OILESEM
EMU-DS Oil/Eq Svs/Dst - PRICE INDEX
CNVELEM
EMU-DS Con. Electricity - PRICE INDEX
OILGPEM
EMU-DS Oil & Gas Prod - PRICE INDEX
CONPKEM
EMU-DS Cont & Pack - PRICE INDEX
OILGSEM
EMU-DS Oil & Gas - PRICE INDEX
DEFENEM
EMU-DS Defense - PRICE INDEX
OILINEM
EMU-DS Int Oil & Gas - PRICE INDEX
DGRETEM
EMU-DS Drug Retailers - PRICE INDEX
OILSVEM
EMU-DS Oil Eq & Svs - PRICE INDEX
DISTVEM
EMU-DS Distil & Vint - PRICE INDEX
PAPEREM
EMU-DS Paper - PRICE INDEX
DIVINEM
EMU-DS Div Inds - PRICE INDEX
PCINSEM
EMU-DS Prop/Cas Insur - PRICE INDEX
DURHPEM
EMU-DS Dur Hh Prd - PRICE INDEX
PERSGEM
EMU-DS Personal Goods - PRICE INDEX
ELECTEM
EMU-DS Electricity - PRICE INDEX
PHARMEM
EMU-DS Pharm & Bio - PRICE INDEX
ELEQPEM
EMU-DS Elec Compo/Eq - PRICE INDEX
PHRMCEM
EMU-DS Pharm - PRICE INDEX
ELETREM
EMU-DS Eltro Eq - PRICE INDEX
PRSNLEM
EMU-DS Personal Prd - PRICE INDEX
ELTNCEM
EMU-DS Eltro/Elec Eq - PRICE INDEX
PUBLSEM
EMU-DS Publishing - PRICE INDEX
EQINVEM
EMU-DS Eqt Ivst Ins - PRICE INDEX
RECSVEM
EMU-DS Recreatnal Svs - PRICE INDEX
FDPRDEM
EMU-DS Food Products - PRICE INDEX
REINSEM
EMU-DS Reinsurance - PRICE INDEX
FINANEM
EMU-DS Financials - PRICE INDEX
RITDVEM
EMU-DS Divers. REITs - PRICE INDEX
FLINSEM
EMU-DS Full Lin Insur - PRICE INDEX
RITRTEM
EMU-DS Retail REITs - PRICE INDEX
FNSVSEM
EMU-DS Financial Svs(4) - PRICE INDEX
RLDEVEM
EMU-DS R/E Hld & Dvlp - PRICE INDEX
FOODSEM
EMU-DS Fd Producers - PRICE INDEX
RLESTEM
EMU-DS Real Estate - PRICE INDEX
FSTPAEM
EMU-DS Forestry & Pap - PRICE INDEX
SFTCSEM
EMU-DS S/W & Comp Svs - PRICE INDEX
FURNSEM
EMU-DS Furnishings - PRICE INDEX
STEELEM
EMU-DS Iron & Steel - PRICE INDEX
GASDSEM
EMU-DS Gas Dst - PRICE INDEX
SUPSVEM
EMU-DS Support Svs - PRICE INDEX
GWMUTEM
EMU-DS Gs/Wt/Mul Util - PRICE INDEX
TECHDEM
EMU-DS Tch H/W & Eq - PRICE INDEX
HCEQSEM
EMU-DS H/C Eq & Svs - PRICE INDEX
TECNOEM
EMU-DS Technology - PRICE INDEX
HLTHCEM
EMU-DS Health Care - PRICE INDEX
TELCMEM
EMU-DS Telecom - PRICE INDEX
HOTELEM
EMU-DS Hotels - PRICE INDEX
TELEQEM
EMU-DS Telecom Eq - PRICE INDEX
TELFLEM
EMU-DS Fxd Line T/Cm - PRICE INDEX
TELMBEM
EMU-DS Mobile T/Cm - PRICE INDEX
TLMITEM
EMU-DS TELECOM,MEDIA,IT - PRICE INDEX
TOTMKEM
EMU-DS Market - PRICE INDEX
TOTXTEM
EMU-DS DS-MARKET EX TMT - PRICE INDEX
TOYSGEM
EMU-DS Toys - PRICE INDEX
TRAVLEM
EMU-DS Travl & Toursm - PRICE INDEX
TRLESEM
EMU-DS Travel & Leis - PRICE INDEX
TRNSVEM
EMU-DS Transpt Svs - PRICE INDEX
TRUCKEM
EMU-DS Trucking - PRICE INDEX
TYRESEM
EMU-DS Tires - PRICE INDEX
APPENDIX C: REGRESSIERESULTATEN
Coefficient
-52.38165 58.77398 741.3764 24.57928 11.46037 17.97111 9.632873 7.925955 10.32821 15.18155 3.196948 9.093088 21.09448 -4.065106 -0.253166 8.096492 -96.40023
0.563034 0.517927 155.0045 3724093. -1102.582 12.48239 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.610010 0.544149 5.419648 1.753170 1.054730 1.549398 0.819090 0.696436 0.850787 1.153281 0.236945 0.760191 1.337916 -0.290050 -0.020087 0.666597 -0.560834
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
14.51011 108.0108 136.7942 14.01990 10.86568 11.59877 11.76046 11.38074 12.13958 13.16379 13.49235 11.96158 15.76667 14.01520 12.60374 12.14600 171.8872
Std. Error
454.3548 223.2483 13.01839 13.32948 13.14461 0.720362
0.0004 0.5871 0.0000 0.0815 0.2932 0.1233 0.4140 0.4872 0.3962 0.2506 0.8130 0.4483 0.1829 0.7722 0.9840 0.5060 0.5757
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AEROSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:44 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-54.98190 -4.281708 792.4949 12.31713 18.72010 9.485533 0.727642 17.70428 15.84327 4.751995 9.304740 1.458832 -1.506264 6.214773 13.67378 14.54919 14.20653 10.87897 18.27659 18.34037 -77.69675 0.586816 0.532089 152.7107 3521406. -1097.769 10.72272 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.411227 -0.044057 6.546585 1.128374 1.911545 0.981946 0.061175 1.886705 1.438911 0.431006 0.960455 0.118850 -0.135803 0.472524 1.111473 1.167918 1.062944 0.804268 1.435622 1.439413 -0.481677
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
16.11793 97.18533 121.0547 10.91582 9.793179 9.659930 11.89442 9.383704 11.01060 11.02537 9.687842 12.27454 11.09152 13.15229 12.30240 12.45738 13.36526 13.52654 12.73078 12.74156 161.3047
Std. Error
454.3548 223.2483 13.00894 13.39323 13.16485 0.840059
0.0008 0.9649 0.0000 0.2610 0.0578 0.3277 0.9513 0.0611 0.1522 0.6671 0.3384 0.9056 0.8922 0.6372 0.2681 0.2447 0.2895 0.4225 0.1532 0.1521 0.6307
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AEROSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:19 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-60.28719 23.40057 707.4224 -13.97899 -9.043559 -17.23639 -15.29414 -13.47445 -20.17757 -7.078933 -26.46705 -9.658678 -5.172984 -18.57221 -6.050285
0.585276 0.548295 150.0430 3534525. -1098.089 15.82610 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.975814 0.230642 5.145136 -1.060243 -0.689532 -1.299171 -1.186171 -0.976872 -1.376743 -0.532659 -1.708626 -0.745805 -0.439690 -1.204903 -0.034021
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
15.16348 101.4583 137.4934 13.18471 13.11550 13.26722 12.89370 13.79347 14.65602 13.28979 15.49025 12.95067 11.76508 15.41386 177.8412
Std. Error
454.3548 223.2483 12.94289 13.21738 13.05426 0.657844
0.0001 0.8179 0.0000 0.2907 0.4915 0.1958 0.2373 0.3301 0.1706 0.5950 0.0895 0.4569 0.6608 0.2301 0.9729
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AEROSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:38 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
1.323124 144.0362 766.1377 21.30473 12.31298 11.88758 1.484961 -6.301354 -4.141818 -1.508924 -14.59572 -6.199219 8.874981 -14.13642 -5.415881 2.857052 -302.2680 0.464049 0.408725 148.4195 3414394. -1095.115 8.387844 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.121479 1.236335 6.758637 1.547318 1.230704 1.106906 0.147881 -0.591250 -0.371404 -0.132648 -1.098449 -0.578050 0.635236 -1.155678 -0.475480 0.254594 -1.829516
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
10.89180 116.5026 113.3568 13.76881 10.00482 10.73946 10.04157 10.65769 11.15177 11.37537 13.28758 10.72436 13.97115 12.23215 11.39034 11.22200 165.2175
Std. Error
576.5936 193.0173 12.93157 13.24266 13.05778 0.884618
0.9035 0.2182 0.0000 0.1238 0.2203 0.2700 0.8826 0.5552 0.7108 0.8946 0.2737 0.5641 0.5262 0.2496 0.6351 0.7994 0.0692
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AIRLNEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
1.163482 151.8841 778.1212 4.815849 8.521891 -2.564274 -13.71090 2.899662 5.919068 -10.48563 -0.335589 -3.629219 -5.595615 -4.724906 -1.992919 -3.973031 1.994119 2.852527 12.57304 10.70589 -320.4631
0.462175 0.390939 150.6352 3426335. -1095.415 6.488011 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.100314 1.332800 6.847660 0.436203 0.789746 -0.238566 -1.118577 0.283611 0.465139 -0.970520 -0.027387 -0.257153 -0.417080 -0.341876 -0.181034 -0.347642 0.164200 0.258848 1.205293 1.100603 -1.917839
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.59836 113.9587 113.6331 11.04038 10.79067 10.74869 12.25745 10.22408 12.72537 10.80413 12.25368 14.11305 13.41615 13.82051 11.00851 11.42851 12.14448 11.02010 10.43152 9.727294 167.0959
Std. Error
576.5936 193.0173 12.98157 13.36586 13.13749 0.905012
0.9202 0.1846 0.0000 0.6633 0.4309 0.8118 0.2651 0.7771 0.6425 0.3333 0.9782 0.7974 0.6772 0.7329 0.8566 0.7286 0.8698 0.7961 0.2300 0.2728 0.0570
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AIRLNEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:19 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-13.15653 122.5043 661.2035 -14.78027 -11.09396 -17.05130 -17.31709 -13.71816 -21.25706 -15.73684 -30.97682 -21.94777 -18.45691 -30.30839 -128.9930 0.546102 0.505627 135.7136 2891655. -1080.824 13.49234 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.034961 1.296417 6.154989 -1.113369 -1.040247 -1.361020 -1.659846 -0.960126 -1.508540 -1.123955 -1.930979 -1.802914 -1.771807 -2.036186 -1.005636
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.71210 94.49450 107.4256 13.27527 10.66474 12.52833 10.43295 14.28787 14.09115 14.00130 16.04203 12.17349 10.41700 14.88488 128.2701
Std. Error
576.5936 193.0173 12.74214 13.01663 12.85351 0.792269
0.3023 0.1967 0.0000 0.2673 0.2998 0.1755 0.0989 0.3385 0.1334 0.2627 0.0553 0.0733 0.0784 0.0434 0.3161
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AIRLNEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:38 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
109.0853 564.5391 1190.661 23.60399 27.17394 28.65362 25.09659 9.548301 9.177304 14.41223 -15.76457 -9.361442 12.80616 -31.40653 -32.34321 -21.55412 -933.6848
0.386957 0.323676 333.4096 17230106 -1234.319 6.114829 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 3.819398 2.144538 7.454558 0.684431 0.860355 0.844198 0.821506 0.289832 0.286060 0.494943 -0.495437 -0.328278 0.363935 -0.965469 -1.037335 -0.752991 -3.166186
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
28.56087 263.2452 159.7226 34.48704 31.58457 33.94180 30.54950 32.94427 32.08180 29.11897 31.81952 28.51685 35.18801 32.52983 31.17914 28.62467 294.8926
Std. Error
1198.999 405.4157 14.55023 14.86132 14.67644 0.550098
0.0002 0.0335 0.0000 0.4947 0.3909 0.3999 0.4126 0.7723 0.7752 0.6213 0.6210 0.7431 0.7164 0.3358 0.3012 0.4526 0.0019
Prob.
Dependent Variable: APRETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
113.9270 570.2058 1267.242 31.52956 41.26961 11.86378 -17.65028 8.630611 21.41627 -18.73018 -5.671352 -5.144651 -7.866847 -1.545680 -7.666784 -13.47117 -11.23698 -8.560921 13.90503 12.32629 -1033.828 0.394784 0.314622 335.6337 17010148 -1233.214 4.924875 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic 4.056559 2.133197 6.975318 1.201224 1.677465 0.443964 -0.560445 0.341077 0.707015 -0.665987 -0.198566 -0.168764 -0.296556 -0.054965 -0.270152 -0.478519 -0.374203 -0.309253 0.531525 0.506534 -3.572208
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
28.08463 267.3010 181.6752 26.24786 24.60237 26.72241 31.49332 25.30401 30.29110 28.12395 28.56161 30.48437 26.52735 28.12142 28.37952 28.15177 30.02909 27.68257 26.16062 24.33460 289.4086
Std. Error
1198.999 405.4157 14.58389 14.96818 14.73980 0.582135
0.0001 0.0345 0.0000 0.2315 0.0955 0.6577 0.5760 0.7335 0.4806 0.5064 0.8429 0.8662 0.7672 0.9562 0.7874 0.6330 0.7088 0.7576 0.5958 0.6132 0.0005
Prob.
Dependent Variable: APRETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:19 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
73.03464 519.2854 945.8840 -58.84267 -47.39787 -60.24249 -49.07865 -42.85992 -47.58634 -44.84992 -59.11025 -50.39085 -47.80660 -71.34653 -527.5369
0.533494 0.491895 288.9864 13111563 -1210.827 12.82461 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 2.846224 2.869287 5.065136 -2.521208 -1.942815 -2.809454 -2.458352 -1.699461 -1.769517 -1.999717 -2.354876 -2.573578 -2.526433 -2.590117 -1.661625
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
25.66019 180.9806 186.7440 23.33908 24.39649 21.44278 19.96404 25.21972 26.89227 22.42813 25.10122 19.58008 18.92257 27.54568 317.4826
Std. Error
1198.999 405.4157 14.25381 14.52830 14.36517 0.549895
0.0050 0.0047 0.0000 0.0127 0.0538 0.0056 0.0150 0.0912 0.0787 0.0473 0.0198 0.0110 0.0125 0.0105 0.0986
Prob.
Dependent Variable: APRETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:38 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
0.101621 0.008885 35.85412 199255.2 -850.7743 1.095807 0.363510
-0.368658 -31.20268 -27.01924 4.919441 3.354410 1.242340 -0.977677 -1.862437 -2.938351 -3.386250 -2.858190 -2.851994 -4.851710 -4.757259 -5.774277 -4.782588 109.5865
Coefficient -0.178733 -1.708275 -1.425969 1.385431 0.950005 0.355613 -0.277967 -0.533663 -0.845187 -0.976997 -0.819213 -0.822443 -1.385795 -1.365684 -1.647349 -1.380710 4.409309
t-Statistic
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
2.062611 18.26560 18.94799 3.550839 3.530939 3.493521 3.517239 3.489914 3.476570 3.465977 3.488947 3.467712 3.501031 3.483426 3.505194 3.463861 24.85345
Std. Error
Dependent Variable: ASSETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments
52.39325 36.01446 10.09040 10.40149 10.21662 0.146221
0.8584 0.0896 0.1559 0.1679 0.3436 0.7226 0.7814 0.5943 0.3993 0.3301 0.4139 0.4121 0.1678 0.1740 0.1015 0.1694 0.0000
Prob.
Coefficient
-0.172897 -19.22994 -30.83406 0.032871 -1.290862 -0.482312 0.215446 -0.734992 -1.505090 -1.323351 -2.477464 -2.822388 -1.794447 -1.315263 -2.230002 -1.451249 -1.120629 -1.836368 -1.345901 -0.165952 101.7137
0.070337 -0.052797 36.95297 206193.8 -853.7181 0.571220 0.927353
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.061503 -1.190507 -1.442666 0.011601 -0.402415 -0.169933 0.076248 -0.260180 -0.519198 -0.430404 -0.751794 -0.831884 -0.622059 -0.501932 -0.819382 -0.526143 -0.398270 -0.606994 -0.438971 -0.061198 2.917473
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
2.811179 16.15273 21.37297 2.833426 3.207785 2.838251 2.825613 2.824933 2.898872 3.074671 3.295403 3.392768 2.884692 2.620400 2.721566 2.758281 2.813743 3.025348 3.066038 2.711741 34.86363
Std. Error
52.39325 36.01446 10.17114 10.55543 10.32706 0.103309
0.9510 0.2357 0.1512 0.9908 0.6879 0.8653 0.9393 0.7951 0.6044 0.6675 0.4533 0.4068 0.5348 0.6164 0.4139 0.5996 0.6910 0.5448 0.6613 0.9513 0.0041
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ASSETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:18 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000) -2.675411 -26.09929 -46.59061 -1.239895 -2.697429 -2.326242 -3.903534 -3.298429 -3.610869 -2.497772 -1.829860 -2.880041 -3.137687 -2.120782 132.7163 0.090886 0.009818 35.83722 201636.1 -851.7958 1.121113 0.343416
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable -1.229300 -1.440603 -2.392829 -0.419747 -0.913836 -0.797343 -1.326739 -1.108219 -1.217155 -0.828848 -0.617284 -0.956825 -1.037780 -0.709194 5.105072
t-Statistic
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
2.176370 18.11692 19.47093 2.953913 2.951765 2.917492 2.942201 2.976334 2.966648 3.013546 2.964373 3.009996 3.023461 2.990414 25.99695
Std. Error
Dependent Variable: ASSETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:38 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments
52.39325 36.01446 10.07902 10.35351 10.19039 0.158236
0.2208 0.1517 0.0179 0.6752 0.3622 0.4265 0.1865 0.2695 0.2254 0.4084 0.5379 0.3401 0.3010 0.4793 0.0000
Prob.
Coefficient
-14.52187 169.6510 438.8815 6.695473 2.822523 2.836019 -2.862290 -8.164564 -6.592690 -1.382416 -12.75822 -10.80059 -0.416389 -14.69438 -14.35057 -9.964970 -155.9287
0.522532 0.473245 89.63808 1245423. -1008.382 10.60181 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.220114 2.633263 8.646620 0.814901 0.448345 0.400314 -0.452902 -1.139482 -0.908605 -0.203696 -1.572753 -1.728873 -0.045649 -1.947355 -2.051793 -1.631166 -2.106107
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
6.541044 64.42615 50.75757 8.216305 6.295426 7.084493 6.319890 7.165153 7.255840 6.786671 8.112030 6.247185 9.121641 7.545812 6.994161 6.109108 74.03648
Std. Error
376.4788 123.5060 11.92304 12.23413 12.04926 0.966178
0.0279 0.0093 0.0000 0.4164 0.6545 0.6895 0.6513 0.2563 0.3650 0.8389 0.1178 0.0858 0.9636 0.0533 0.0419 0.1049 0.0368
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AUPRTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-16.41084 182.8748 430.4095 6.731766 8.826769 1.699477 -7.893133 1.489285 6.424531 -4.383161 -0.595605 -1.601711 -1.279324 0.765890 1.399225 2.876384 3.583849 2.002740 6.910262 8.031063 -150.7909 0.511731 0.447060 91.83901 1273595. -1010.305 7.912793 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.258370 2.745206 7.823837 0.950281 1.455140 0.262743 -0.982608 0.227950 0.749900 -0.602455 -0.082376 -0.189558 -0.177692 0.097451 0.190655 0.396331 0.443627 0.275177 0.984936 1.169812 -1.800846
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
7.266677 66.61606 55.01258 7.083975 6.065926 6.468217 8.032843 6.533374 8.567182 7.275497 7.230346 8.449732 7.199682 7.859203 7.339054 7.257530 8.078511 7.278006 7.015952 6.865258 83.73338
Std. Error
376.4788 123.5060 11.99192 12.37621 12.14784 0.915200
0.0254 0.0068 0.0000 0.3435 0.1477 0.7931 0.3274 0.8200 0.4545 0.5478 0.9345 0.8499 0.8592 0.9225 0.8491 0.6924 0.6579 0.7836 0.3262 0.2439 0.0737
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AUPRTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:18 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-23.89683 171.7735 362.0750 -11.24686 -6.824067 -9.637871 -9.268701 -8.241177 -9.900533 -7.946825 -18.08574 -13.79450 -10.52404 -17.46070 -48.06377
0.574197 0.536228 84.10861 1110659. -998.5328 15.12253 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.916255 3.423303 7.373089 -1.705803 -1.077659 -1.458564 -1.660110 -1.048661 -1.272068 -1.153281 -2.154409 -2.107399 -1.864768 -1.880989 -0.567235
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
6.101959 50.17770 49.10764 6.593294 6.332308 6.607782 5.583187 7.858762 7.783025 6.890623 8.394757 6.545747 5.643620 9.282725 84.73348
Std. Error
376.4788 123.5060 11.78526 12.05976 11.89663 0.851462
0.0001 0.0008 0.0000 0.0900 0.2828 0.1467 0.0989 0.2959 0.2052 0.2505 0.0327 0.0367 0.0641 0.0618 0.5714
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AUPRTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:38 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
12.85045 193.2438 792.6712 19.13802 12.27019 13.03462 6.519656 -3.357466 0.191387 4.420137 -13.82719 -6.384838 7.226967 -18.48404 -19.85720 -8.266403 -465.8834 0.458758 0.402887 155.4952 3747709. -1103.125 8.211133 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 1.169622 1.723399 8.562039 1.325942 1.072924 1.054655 0.592159 -0.270735 0.013568 0.350580 -0.951370 -0.582104 0.464834 -1.416706 -1.734422 -0.785433 -3.241732
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
10.98683 112.1294 92.57973 14.43353 11.43621 12.35913 11.00997 12.40129 14.10602 12.60806 14.53399 10.96855 15.54740 13.04720 11.44889 10.52465 143.7143
Std. Error
534.1149 201.2283 13.02471 13.33580 13.15093 0.902846
0.2439 0.0868 0.0000 0.1868 0.2850 0.2932 0.5546 0.7870 0.9892 0.7264 0.3429 0.5613 0.6427 0.1586 0.0848 0.4334 0.0015
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AUTMBEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
14.40191 204.5119 815.8354 9.776415 17.18544 1.262210 -11.11193 6.496120 10.46535 -7.132771 -0.518910 -4.024230 -5.170324 -2.421841 -1.444926 -4.754121 -4.271189 -6.199870 4.997457 4.272011 -505.1064
0.454435 0.382175 158.1692 3777640. -1103.809 6.288861 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 1.251632 1.854913 7.427825 0.807140 1.544881 0.122587 -0.789187 0.632148 0.747892 -0.574918 -0.044316 -0.275930 -0.442696 -0.168605 -0.123770 -0.437551 -0.326220 -0.554080 0.454400 0.399124 -3.104213
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.50651 110.2542 109.8350 12.11242 11.12412 10.29644 14.08023 10.27627 13.99313 12.40658 11.70924 14.58424 11.67918 14.36396 11.67431 10.86528 13.09297 11.18949 10.99792 10.70346 162.7164
Std. Error
534.1149 201.2283 13.07918 13.46347 13.23509 0.919610
0.2126 0.0656 0.0000 0.4209 0.1245 0.9026 0.4312 0.5282 0.4557 0.5662 0.9647 0.7830 0.6586 0.8663 0.9017 0.6623 0.7447 0.5803 0.6502 0.6904 0.0023
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AUTMBEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:18 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-3.604912 181.1721 677.9247 -12.73048 -7.138043 -14.75157 -14.69480 -13.47890 -19.95428 -15.87450 -33.98552 -26.52129 -21.31449 -36.54073 -284.6415 0.539373 0.498298 142.5318 3189503. -1089.255 13.13143 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.342878 2.520437 6.011760 -1.119660 -0.620152 -1.361686 -1.612710 -1.018722 -1.373151 -1.322509 -2.350870 -2.446286 -2.280339 -2.166919 -1.825100
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
10.51369 71.88122 112.7664 11.36995 11.51016 10.83332 9.111865 13.23119 14.53175 12.00332 14.45657 10.84145 9.347072 16.86299 155.9594
Std. Error
534.1149 201.2283 12.84018 13.11467 12.95154 0.822104
0.7321 0.0127 0.0000 0.2646 0.5361 0.1752 0.1088 0.3099 0.1717 0.1879 0.0200 0.0155 0.0239 0.0317 0.0699
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AUTMBEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:39 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
17.25747 182.4002 808.4832 21.91832 14.40583 15.13859 8.241004 -1.966980 1.137220 4.808754 -13.69815 -5.546754 7.413820 -18.86969 -21.54913 -8.633275 -454.1448
0.439287 0.381407 164.0126 4169522. -1112.298 7.589613 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 1.464270 1.564883 8.146477 1.450848 1.173580 1.135715 0.692526 -0.146897 0.074504 0.354279 -0.894198 -0.474898 0.454914 -1.351754 -1.741268 -0.757997 -2.912173
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.78572 116.5584 99.24329 15.10725 12.27511 13.32957 11.89991 13.39018 15.26386 13.57334 15.31892 11.67988 16.29720 13.95941 12.37554 11.38959 155.9470
Std. Error
567.3575 208.5330 13.13137 13.44246 13.25759 0.847571
0.1451 0.1196 0.0000 0.1488 0.2424 0.2578 0.4896 0.8834 0.9407 0.7236 0.3726 0.6355 0.6498 0.1784 0.0836 0.4496 0.0041
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AUTOSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
19.73086 196.0971 837.0714 9.698687 17.89574 0.916729 -11.11495 6.953212 10.17649 -7.706004 -1.279426 -5.096912 -6.177071 -3.243265 -3.259919 -7.003674 -6.751933 -8.581913 3.626796 2.895868 -504.9784 0.435300 0.360505 166.7606 4199172. -1112.907 5.819926 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic 1.631320 1.718453 7.079328 0.758996 1.512180 0.085714 -0.752971 0.645931 0.694528 -0.584990 -0.103056 -0.334297 -0.510711 -0.216071 -0.268388 -0.625134 -0.495314 -0.740309 0.315442 0.260657 -2.876302
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.09503 114.1126 118.2417 12.77831 11.83440 10.69526 14.76145 10.76463 14.65239 13.17287 12.41488 15.24666 12.09504 15.01020 12.14628 11.20347 13.63161 11.59234 11.49750 11.10987 175.5652
Std. Error
567.3575 208.5330 13.18497 13.56925 13.34088 0.870315
0.1049 0.0878 0.0000 0.4490 0.1326 0.9318 0.4526 0.5193 0.4884 0.5594 0.9181 0.7386 0.6103 0.8292 0.7888 0.5328 0.6211 0.4603 0.7529 0.7947 0.0046
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AUTOSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:18 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
0.205043 170.1179 692.2211 -10.82299 -6.235280 -14.64305 -14.90098 -13.90942 -20.81687 -16.30739 -35.44536 -27.59480 -22.47729 -38.37594 -269.4159
0.516591 0.473484 151.3145 3594682. -1099.540 11.98405 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.018134 2.300021 5.585428 -0.910383 -0.508510 -1.277567 -1.505169 -0.999092 -1.357881 -1.279011 -2.356676 -2.440724 -2.273817 -2.188854 -1.588698
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.30691 73.96363 123.9334 11.88839 12.26185 11.46167 9.899876 13.92207 15.33041 12.75000 15.04040 11.30599 9.885266 17.53244 169.5829
Std. Error
567.3575 208.5330 12.95977 13.23426 13.07114 0.762957
0.9856 0.0228 0.0000 0.3640 0.6118 0.2033 0.1343 0.3193 0.1764 0.2028 0.0197 0.0158 0.0243 0.0301 0.1141
Prob.
Dependent Variable: AUTOSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:39 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-58.52674 238.2746 1594.682 32.45563 17.23323 23.68967 9.005484 -0.635641 9.078646 21.22599 -14.32688 7.738839 35.98323 -8.996050 -9.566078 8.847236 -636.0831 0.592649 0.550600 267.6210 11101257 -1196.514 14.09421 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.992656 1.184934 6.164214 1.276279 1.032390 1.301741 0.531610 -0.036812 0.485242 1.052356 -0.616921 0.435067 1.390935 -0.442166 -0.503203 0.488300 -2.138181
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
19.55679 201.0869 258.6999 25.42988 16.69256 18.19845 16.94001 17.26713 18.70952 20.16997 23.22318 17.78767 25.86982 20.34544 19.01038 18.11844 297.4879
Std. Error
882.2118 399.2121 14.11063 14.42172 14.23684 1.066755
0.0032 0.2379 0.0000 0.2038 0.3035 0.1949 0.5958 0.9707 0.6282 0.2943 0.5382 0.6641 0.1662 0.6590 0.6155 0.6260 0.0341
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BANKSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-61.34921 207.4769 1642.561 7.373936 20.97579 -4.779933 -21.68437 8.880172 14.43343 -13.56897 -1.331386 -11.34956 -13.12595 -4.460867 14.11020 9.750508 17.48361 12.21649 29.48931 22.43026 -644.1298
0.597754 0.544477 269.4381 10962129 -1195.429 11.21962 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.752700 1.061256 7.330977 0.390196 1.117442 -0.249000 -0.909133 0.548388 0.723563 -0.660425 -0.068969 -0.475744 -0.627993 -0.184217 0.733922 0.514214 0.851169 0.619599 1.601122 1.239566 -2.333571
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
22.28692 195.5012 224.0576 18.89803 18.77126 19.19651 23.85169 16.19323 19.94773 20.54581 19.30414 23.85643 20.90145 24.21533 19.22575 18.96196 20.54070 19.71677 18.41791 18.09525 276.0276
Std. Error
882.2118 399.2121 14.14453 14.52881 14.30044 1.133076
0.0066 0.2903 0.0000 0.6969 0.2656 0.8037 0.3647 0.5842 0.4705 0.5100 0.9451 0.6349 0.5310 0.8541 0.4641 0.6079 0.3960 0.5365 0.1114 0.2171 0.0209
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BANKSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:19 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-80.14589 174.5220 1462.426 -36.64129 -22.59753 -33.38692 -26.01899 -21.01205 -32.64865 -14.85699 -57.40653 -33.72468 -27.43299 -54.54939 -374.7323 0.649717 0.618482 246.5821 9546027. -1183.534 20.80064 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.293927 1.097339 5.766193 -1.510382 -1.066089 -1.504737 -1.447417 -0.842972 -1.330990 -0.634302 -1.947886 -1.454785 -1.459047 -1.948978 -1.278076
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.33141 159.0410 253.6207 24.25962 21.19666 22.18787 17.97616 24.92615 24.52960 23.42260 29.47120 23.18190 18.80199 27.98872 293.2004
Std. Error
882.2118 399.2121 13.93644 14.21093 14.04780 1.017890
0.0012 0.2742 0.0000 0.1330 0.2880 0.1344 0.1498 0.4005 0.1851 0.5268 0.0532 0.1477 0.1466 0.0531 0.2031
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BANKSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:39 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-23.21583 6.822773 1037.481 38.20210 31.24833 35.25640 15.46831 14.40361 21.81017 25.08383 -1.351845 9.115534 22.88988 -10.10267 -13.21970 2.373248 -117.8801
0.472475 0.418020 216.2272 7246902. -1159.836 8.676549 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.305806 0.043541 8.115995 1.938884 1.881639 1.983475 0.962722 0.832051 1.220106 1.443695 -0.070894 0.572268 1.070649 -0.504603 -0.700649 0.132020 -0.563658
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
17.77892 156.6964 127.8316 19.70314 16.60697 17.77507 16.06727 17.31097 17.87564 17.37474 19.06861 15.92879 21.37944 20.02101 18.86779 17.97648 209.1343
Std. Error
777.6807 283.4370 13.68414 13.99523 13.81036 0.719232
0.1936 0.9653 0.0000 0.0543 0.0618 0.0491 0.3372 0.4067 0.2243 0.1508 0.9436 0.5680 0.2860 0.6146 0.4846 0.8951 0.5738
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BDRETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-22.10830 -2.767925 1102.681 3.669677 14.98712 -2.461353 -16.37825 6.229117 8.553839 -8.073876 -0.167028 -5.482830 -8.635494 -2.535183 5.098851 -0.248995 0.453541 -2.368385 13.08661 13.07768 -181.2584 0.444121 0.370494 224.8829 7636418. -1164.339 6.032083 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.105908 -0.017054 8.066651 0.215522 0.916070 -0.149025 -0.817354 0.402522 0.466878 -0.448014 -0.009635 -0.274216 -0.472805 -0.120314 0.267501 -0.013318 0.022126 -0.126087 0.705412 0.738310 -0.783830
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
19.99108 162.3068 136.6962 17.02691 16.36023 16.51643 20.03814 15.47522 18.32135 18.02147 17.33600 19.99456 18.26441 21.07140 19.06106 18.69634 20.49766 18.78375 18.55172 17.71299 231.2470
Std. Error
777.6807 283.4370 13.78301 14.16729 13.93892 0.746079
0.2705 0.9864 0.0000 0.8297 0.3611 0.8817 0.4150 0.6879 0.6413 0.6548 0.9923 0.7843 0.6370 0.9044 0.7894 0.9894 0.9824 0.8998 0.4816 0.4615 0.4344
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BDRETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:19 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-37.12388 -33.42358 979.1419 -10.41398 -8.185493 -19.31842 -20.07002 -12.74036 -22.49611 -6.300138 -37.32414 -22.83085 -18.77231 -40.15387 20.39702
0.489540 0.444022 211.3418 7012461. -1157.008 10.75471 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.736000 -0.245591 5.991619 -0.548419 -0.452242 -1.071022 -1.242136 -0.643723 -1.075442 -0.319975 -1.684475 -1.275939 -1.173735 -1.860533 0.089297
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
21.38473 136.0943 163.4186 18.98910 18.09982 18.03736 16.15767 19.79167 20.91800 19.68947 22.15773 17.89338 15.99365 21.58192 228.4174
Std. Error
777.6807 283.4370 13.62800 13.90249 13.73937 0.634631
0.0845 0.8063 0.0000 0.5842 0.6517 0.2858 0.2160 0.5207 0.2838 0.7494 0.0941 0.2039 0.2423 0.0647 0.9290
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BDRETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:39 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-62.80942 924.4165 3166.033 50.11441 33.56829 56.62683 39.96208 23.30772 48.86121 66.73227 -16.61989 11.44070 81.72607 -8.888323 1.058344 23.29577 -2310.017 0.618570 0.579196 496.7746 38251678 -1302.907 15.71033 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.372671 2.928657 7.945263 0.983751 0.978542 1.553835 1.225621 0.659412 1.176924 1.657392 -0.343709 0.327561 1.547687 -0.232500 0.031570 0.739656 -4.705325
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
26.47203 315.6452 398.4806 50.94217 34.30438 36.44327 32.60559 35.34622 41.51603 40.26341 48.35461 34.92689 52.80529 38.22939 33.52360 31.49543 490.9369
Std. Error
1362.499 765.8075 15.34776 15.65884 15.47397 1.349152
0.0189 0.0039 0.0000 0.3268 0.3293 0.1223 0.2222 0.5106 0.2410 0.0995 0.7315 0.7437 0.1237 0.8165 0.9749 0.4606 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BEVESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-56.82806 877.7923 3308.739 27.91877 51.77763 -0.078109 -47.10448 12.43010 38.64697 -28.02425 5.459250 -9.293590 -7.827496 -3.656092 11.55189 -0.573957 -0.498065 -14.82666 17.92164 20.22713 -2439.503
0.609229 0.557472 509.4367 39188384 -1304.988 11.77079 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.893478 2.673962 8.301334 0.743469 1.443683 -0.002305 -0.991197 0.439615 0.992939 -0.779627 0.167201 -0.197076 -0.223597 -0.082446 0.358675 -0.020328 -0.013689 -0.489131 0.640908 0.741575 -4.962968
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
30.01253 328.2741 398.5792 37.55205 35.86495 33.88396 47.52280 28.27497 38.92179 35.94570 32.65085 47.15737 35.00717 44.34504 32.20715 28.23448 36.38551 30.31225 27.96288 27.27593 491.5411
Std. Error
1362.499 765.8075 15.41846 15.80275 15.57437 1.401166
0.0602 0.0083 0.0000 0.4584 0.1509 0.9982 0.3232 0.6608 0.3223 0.4368 0.8674 0.8440 0.8234 0.9344 0.7203 0.9838 0.9891 0.6255 0.5226 0.4595 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BEVESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:19 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-96.06091 795.6005 3013.072 -44.75809 -8.190636 -39.07505 -24.20540 -16.29864 -32.05833 -8.693277 -101.9708 -62.70582 -49.32044 -121.3876 -1934.134 0.647357 0.615911 474.6084 35364746 -1296.158 20.58640 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.689935 3.244419 6.767295 -0.995771 -0.212765 -1.061522 -0.909601 -0.338562 -0.607986 -0.198789 -1.787207 -1.372156 -1.406342 -1.825772 -3.362111
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
35.71123 245.2213 445.2402 44.94817 38.49614 36.81040 26.61102 48.14080 52.72875 43.73108 57.05594 45.69874 35.07003 66.48559 575.2737
Std. Error
1362.499 765.8075 15.24603 15.52052 15.35740 1.273589
0.0079 0.0014 0.0000 0.3209 0.8318 0.2901 0.3644 0.7354 0.5441 0.8427 0.0758 0.1720 0.1616 0.0698 0.0010
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BEVESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:39 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
0.387503 701.0161 2414.794 34.08288 22.14656 36.94224 24.62548 10.06439 27.72142 46.73962 -12.73023 13.48509 63.13192 -8.312069 -7.248453 11.75800 -2007.716
0.560561 0.515200 403.1702 25194659 -1266.997 12.35765 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.015981 2.494137 8.018108 0.858227 0.860557 1.326360 1.005648 0.369806 0.862327 1.545770 -0.330018 0.484609 1.526540 -0.270704 -0.270497 0.464832 -5.308963
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.24834 281.0656 301.1675 39.71314 25.73516 27.85235 24.48719 27.21535 32.14722 30.23711 38.57435 27.82673 41.35623 30.70541 26.79680 25.29514 378.1748
Std. Error
983.9591 579.0378 14.93020 15.24129 15.05642 1.222816
0.9873 0.0137 0.0000 0.3921 0.3908 0.1867 0.3162 0.7120 0.3898 0.1242 0.7418 0.6286 0.1289 0.7870 0.7871 0.6427 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BMATREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
3.240084 637.5479 2525.056 32.36761 53.65578 5.376302 -27.83270 19.29349 33.42893 -17.84160 6.389156 -7.043691 -3.240708 5.041300 15.28866 2.094115 7.914915 -4.190070 22.03367 19.14497 -2072.273 0.560873 0.502710 408.3303 25176781 -1266.936 9.643198 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.117453 2.238376 8.301806 1.063322 1.830911 0.200265 -0.748078 0.856326 1.076429 -0.588946 0.232073 -0.185493 -0.114864 0.137511 0.561992 0.086249 0.261789 -0.160150 0.897450 0.791599 -5.402457
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.58620 284.8261 304.1574 30.44007 29.30551 26.84598 37.20564 22.53055 31.05541 30.29415 27.53077 37.97281 28.21337 36.66105 27.20439 24.28002 30.23394 26.16345 24.55141 24.18520 383.5798
Std. Error
983.9591 579.0378 14.97600 15.36029 15.13192 1.289506
0.9067 0.0267 0.0000 0.2893 0.0691 0.8415 0.4556 0.3932 0.2835 0.5568 0.8168 0.8531 0.9087 0.8908 0.5750 0.9314 0.7938 0.8730 0.3709 0.4298 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BMATREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:16 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-32.15070 598.3426 2232.867 -43.72329 -17.09800 -40.99523 -30.00234 -24.48462 -38.03989 -19.25153 -88.05713 -56.94861 -46.54514 -96.89600 -1626.800
0.615396 0.581101 374.7674 22050742 -1255.535 17.94375 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.106319 3.041778 6.623333 -1.321152 -0.578557 -1.461705 -1.402920 -0.642740 -0.933875 -0.578216 -2.131152 -1.722011 -1.837728 -1.936844 -3.656390
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
29.06097 196.7082 337.1214 33.09481 29.55284 28.04616 21.38563 38.09412 40.73339 33.29470 41.31902 33.07099 25.32754 50.02778 444.9198
Std. Error
983.9591 579.0378 14.77366 15.04815 14.88503 1.174694
0.2703 0.0028 0.0000 0.1884 0.5637 0.1458 0.1626 0.5213 0.3518 0.5639 0.0346 0.0870 0.0680 0.0546 0.0003
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BMATREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:39 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-33.22530 630.7101 1936.360 32.33608 21.40306 26.16249 15.78001 -0.280985 12.37380 30.91219 -15.07128 0.003150 42.83876 -17.49938 -14.53392 3.768808 -1374.756 0.573102 0.529035 331.3132 17014109 -1233.235 13.00526 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.524539 2.708637 6.753780 0.985600 0.969126 1.141392 0.812642 -0.012749 0.562278 1.309401 -0.505001 0.000150 1.350627 -0.713161 -0.623894 0.169843 -3.960468
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
21.79368 232.8514 286.7076 32.80853 22.08492 22.92155 19.41816 22.03940 22.00656 23.60788 29.84404 20.94973 31.71768 24.53776 23.29551 22.18989 347.1196
Std. Error
961.9007 482.7745 14.53761 14.84870 14.66383 1.188149
0.1294 0.0075 0.0000 0.3259 0.3340 0.2555 0.4177 0.9898 0.5747 0.1923 0.6143 0.9999 0.1788 0.4768 0.5336 0.8654 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BMATSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-32.15532 581.2260 2020.117 23.72963 43.19258 12.22093 -21.49813 19.42801 29.11581 -15.65874 2.605046 -7.665296 -8.738269 -6.331946 9.418093 3.403382 9.277646 4.657582 24.84652 24.07519 -1415.640
0.578229 0.522365 333.6509 16809758 -1232.195 10.35071 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.331106 2.436440 7.645495 0.987781 1.851948 0.497392 -0.730008 0.929314 1.128213 -0.649236 0.110902 -0.254784 -0.350635 -0.207696 0.407820 0.153942 0.375421 0.200767 1.185340 1.106598 -4.307164
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.15684 238.5555 264.2231 24.02316 23.32278 24.57000 29.44915 20.90576 25.80702 24.11871 23.48957 30.08543 24.92126 30.48660 23.09377 22.10822 24.71265 23.19898 20.96152 21.75605 328.6711
Std. Error
961.9007 482.7745 14.57204 14.95633 14.72795 1.252101
0.1852 0.0160 0.0000 0.3248 0.0660 0.6196 0.4665 0.3542 0.2610 0.5172 0.9118 0.7992 0.7264 0.8357 0.6840 0.8779 0.7079 0.8412 0.2377 0.2702 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BMATSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:16 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-65.87221 553.4868 1723.759 -49.07703 -33.78532 -55.88932 -42.47715 -37.75993 -40.81290 -26.42448 -74.85998 -53.14090 -40.55212 -75.19762 -984.3159 0.660984 0.630754 293.3610 13511523 -1213.411 21.86469 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.711869 3.446457 6.599708 -1.797258 -1.493296 -2.152321 -2.247640 -1.271710 -1.377192 -0.970346 -2.058786 -1.888598 -1.842825 -2.031481 -2.812033
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.29034 160.5959 261.1871 27.30661 22.62466 25.96700 18.89856 29.69226 29.63486 27.23202 36.36122 28.13776 22.00541 37.01616 350.0371
Std. Error
961.9007 482.7745 14.28385 14.55835 14.39522 1.196882
0.0074 0.0007 0.0000 0.0742 0.1374 0.0329 0.0260 0.2054 0.1704 0.3334 0.0412 0.0608 0.0672 0.0439 0.0056
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BMATSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:39 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-64.48639 741.5175 3216.076 58.61061 40.26261 67.80655 46.07372 35.81440 63.06886 76.20317 -9.070171 20.97449 88.18929 -2.278200 4.166937 28.16333 -2081.829
0.614630 0.574850 505.2426 39566860 -1305.814 15.45067 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.324036 2.284385 8.300767 1.155702 1.201848 1.886798 1.427352 1.038972 1.484842 1.877075 -0.190316 0.609548 1.681837 -0.060569 0.131464 0.908073 -4.224146
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.74758 324.6026 387.4432 50.71428 33.50057 35.93736 32.27916 34.47100 42.47513 40.59677 47.65839 34.40989 52.43628 37.61323 31.69643 31.01439 492.8401
Std. Error
1444.912 774.8697 15.38156 15.69265 15.50778 1.309791
0.0214 0.0237 0.0000 0.2496 0.2313 0.0611 0.1555 0.3004 0.1396 0.0624 0.8493 0.5431 0.0946 0.9518 0.8956 0.3652 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BREWSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-55.21300 707.5545 3381.415 20.20600 44.70450 -6.802913 -52.10081 7.511697 34.73383 -30.36488 5.492567 -10.00033 -11.73867 -11.58293 5.792215 -8.223048 -7.727065 -23.55561 11.07734 14.55199 -2261.932 0.597718 0.544436 523.0020 41303195 -1309.508 11.21795 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.731355 2.094605 8.264103 0.534121 1.209739 -0.200331 -1.059644 0.266923 0.864642 -0.823646 0.168955 -0.204562 -0.325664 -0.253537 0.169793 -0.283431 -0.201242 -0.764419 0.379673 0.524596 -4.348504
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
31.89006 337.7985 409.1690 37.83041 36.95383 33.95844 49.16821 28.14179 40.17133 36.86641 32.50906 48.88653 36.04532 45.68537 34.11331 29.01252 38.39683 30.81506 29.17602 27.73943 520.1634
Std. Error
1444.912 774.8697 15.47102 15.85531 15.62693 1.356133
0.0854 0.0379 0.0000 0.5940 0.2283 0.8415 0.2910 0.7899 0.3886 0.4114 0.8661 0.8382 0.7451 0.8002 0.8654 0.7772 0.8408 0.4458 0.7047 0.6006 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BREWSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:17 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-94.67290 603.9282 3106.942 -33.52114 0.290797 -29.26990 -19.57459 -6.620029 -31.65808 -4.430462 -101.5292 -61.80464 -46.16996 -122.2750 -1754.120
0.631511 0.598652 490.8958 37833651 -1301.962 19.21886 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.524369 2.331874 6.824431 -0.712663 0.007257 -0.774986 -0.698705 -0.135002 -0.569666 -0.098301 -1.706726 -1.302446 -1.245116 -1.778639 -3.091299
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
37.50359 258.9884 455.2675 47.03645 40.07175 37.76830 28.01550 49.03638 55.57306 45.07014 59.48767 47.45276 37.08086 68.74639 567.4380
Std. Error
1444.912 774.8697 15.31351 15.58800 15.42488 1.220799
0.0126 0.0210 0.0000 0.4771 0.9942 0.4395 0.4858 0.8928 0.5697 0.9218 0.0899 0.1947 0.2149 0.0772 0.0024
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BREWSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:40 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-85.93928 -195.5755 1308.608 45.55183 33.17625 43.85941 13.67401 11.69425 21.43794 29.82136 3.161481 18.99569 37.57702 -5.305336 -9.587319 5.659347 306.3719 0.479960 0.426278 316.6752 15543895 -1225.462 8.940861 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.712133 -0.749526 6.611909 1.524719 1.341062 1.710322 0.530571 0.438170 0.765455 1.060946 0.108342 0.686898 1.152389 -0.168533 -0.314334 0.199064 0.944150
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
31.68697 260.9323 197.9168 29.87555 24.73879 25.64395 25.77223 26.68887 28.00677 28.10827 29.18055 27.65429 32.60792 31.47943 30.50044 28.42981 324.4950
Std. Error
1005.162 418.0838 14.44724 14.75833 14.57345 0.523821
0.0074 0.4547 0.0000 0.1294 0.1819 0.0892 0.5965 0.6619 0.4452 0.2904 0.9139 0.4932 0.2509 0.8664 0.7537 0.8425 0.3466
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BUSUPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-86.05360 -209.3415 1375.045 -5.093174 6.147776 -8.912393 -23.03542 -0.598596 1.133104 -11.26715 -3.413318 -12.79724 -19.19214 -9.990148 5.646360 4.258510 10.52965 3.945614 20.72830 16.50431 249.6907
0.466503 0.395841 324.9668 15946114 -1227.659 6.601904 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.450267 -0.790684 7.153137 -0.212058 0.260624 -0.381228 -0.855278 -0.027009 0.045670 -0.454269 -0.139952 -0.450868 -0.710565 -0.331781 0.206652 0.156613 0.374233 0.145092 0.768057 0.660666 0.733379
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
35.12009 264.7602 192.2297 24.01783 23.58872 23.37811 26.93325 22.16311 24.81055 24.80281 24.38919 28.38358 27.00971 30.11067 27.32307 27.19137 28.13660 27.19383 26.98798 24.98132 340.4661
Std. Error
1005.162 418.0838 14.51929 14.90358 14.67521 0.566764
0.0154 0.4304 0.0000 0.8323 0.7947 0.7036 0.3938 0.9785 0.9636 0.6503 0.8889 0.6527 0.4785 0.7405 0.8366 0.8758 0.7088 0.8848 0.4437 0.5098 0.4645
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BUSUPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:17 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-103.2150 -266.5237 1232.137 -32.46250 -24.21127 -31.49466 -36.73871 -20.31298 -41.10472 -11.58594 -45.74815 -23.87166 -18.02552 -45.46160 501.6261 0.510117 0.466433 305.3921 14642502 -1220.325 11.67747 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.912968 -1.160810 5.177094 -1.199150 -0.928925 -1.235748 -1.515632 -0.713557 -1.444593 -0.407080 -1.531263 -0.997617 -0.815324 -1.685990 1.648928
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
35.43292 229.6014 237.9977 27.07126 26.06376 25.48632 24.23986 28.46720 28.45418 28.46111 29.87608 23.92870 22.10840 26.96433 304.2134
Std. Error
1005.162 418.0838 14.36424 14.63873 14.47561 0.474685
0.0041 0.2475 0.0000 0.2323 0.3544 0.2184 0.1316 0.4766 0.1506 0.6845 0.1277 0.3200 0.4161 0.0938 0.1012
Prob.
Dependent Variable: BUSUPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:40 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-22.33772 394.4943 2005.239 28.60761 19.51683 38.17971 22.15987 12.33305 24.85282 39.45121 -11.93649 13.58647 49.73153 -6.653653 -10.44654 10.97508 -1126.327
0.560170 0.514768 335.5018 17447029 -1235.395 12.33806 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.962656 1.739692 7.788404 0.892730 0.927656 1.667781 1.033500 0.552117 0.909891 1.528009 -0.381978 0.581799 1.472460 -0.271384 -0.489175 0.544688 -3.491134
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
23.20426 226.7610 257.4647 32.04510 21.03886 22.89252 21.44157 22.33774 27.31405 25.81871 31.24916 23.35252 33.77445 24.51745 21.35541 20.14929 322.6250
Std. Error
1079.554 481.6376 14.56274 14.87383 14.68895 1.126748
0.3372 0.0839 0.0000 0.3734 0.3550 0.0974 0.3030 0.5817 0.3643 0.1285 0.7030 0.5615 0.1429 0.7865 0.6254 0.5868 0.0006
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CHEMSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-21.99408 356.2660 2082.377 17.01705 33.94985 -2.984958 -26.28051 11.35298 21.00103 -16.38580 6.265833 -4.808298 -4.045619 1.890484 10.11997 0.316359 10.97351 0.357285 25.62270 19.48363 -1171.971 0.554448 0.495435 342.1204 17673999 -1236.507 9.395286 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.817607 1.560044 7.929436 0.670120 1.359324 -0.134966 -0.881528 0.623882 0.822341 -0.617664 0.272020 -0.152592 -0.167689 0.059992 0.419438 0.014951 0.435422 0.016089 1.178093 0.888636 -3.486449
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
26.90055 228.3692 262.6134 25.39401 24.97554 22.11636 29.81244 18.19733 25.53810 26.52869 23.03444 31.51091 24.12577 31.51229 24.12749 21.15964 25.20203 22.20638 21.74931 21.92531 336.1502
Std. Error
1079.554 481.6376 14.62217 15.00646 14.77809 1.178578
0.4149 0.1208 0.0000 0.5038 0.1761 0.8928 0.3794 0.5336 0.4122 0.5377 0.7860 0.8789 0.8671 0.9522 0.6755 0.9881 0.6639 0.9872 0.2406 0.3756 0.0006
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CHEMSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:17 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-43.65541 316.1982 1900.913 -34.33020 -13.41212 -26.40194 -17.42691 -9.385415 -24.72925 -7.494487 -65.86810 -38.95945 -30.91225 -68.73428 -882.2519
0.591405 0.554970 321.3031 16208004 -1229.060 16.23170 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.570923 1.887933 6.423539 -1.241834 -0.535467 -1.057881 -0.885225 -0.283224 -0.722428 -0.259514 -1.847663 -1.358686 -1.375435 -1.684702 -2.403297
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.78965 167.4838 295.9292 27.64476 25.04754 24.95738 19.68641 33.13774 34.23075 28.87893 35.64942 28.67436 22.47452 40.79907 367.1007
Std. Error
1079.554 481.6376 14.46582 14.74031 14.57719 1.070976
0.1182 0.0609 0.0000 0.2161 0.5931 0.2917 0.3774 0.7774 0.4711 0.7956 0.0665 0.1762 0.1710 0.0940 0.0174
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CHEMSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:40 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
12.80925 400.6576 1215.850 8.363935 -1.117279 4.382041 -1.982499 -11.34935 -2.213942 3.169790 -22.43872 -13.08779 15.16956 -22.42311 -18.54885 -7.923871 -813.1806 0.393072 0.330421 276.9053 11884862 -1202.380 6.274030 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.543264 1.908277 8.407023 0.306918 -0.047278 0.176745 -0.084861 -0.446275 -0.086115 0.128472 -0.789974 -0.548100 0.510971 -0.903541 -0.836899 -0.403342 -3.505722
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
23.57833 209.9578 144.6231 27.25136 23.63199 24.79303 23.36161 25.43128 25.70905 24.67296 28.40440 23.87846 29.68774 24.81694 22.16379 19.64555 231.9581
Std. Error
798.8726 338.4001 14.17883 14.48992 14.30505 0.686443
0.5877 0.0582 0.0000 0.7593 0.9624 0.8599 0.9325 0.6560 0.9315 0.8979 0.4308 0.5844 0.6101 0.3676 0.4039 0.6873 0.0006
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CHMSPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
10.70041 396.3359 1217.370 19.25289 25.41108 4.221667 -13.23717 15.14652 20.50051 -4.008681 4.633057 -3.583716 1.379811 7.905070 0.753286 -3.983273 5.261905 5.300038 18.31155 17.98936 -800.0365
0.402286 0.323119 278.4111 11704425 -1201.064 5.081468 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.437230 1.909970 7.222901 0.883445 1.192265 0.201932 -0.538336 0.838045 0.899320 -0.184026 0.218867 -0.143655 0.066695 0.332147 0.037776 -0.205570 0.249009 0.268645 0.948783 0.924992 -3.104090
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.47320 207.5089 168.5430 21.79297 21.31329 20.90633 24.58904 18.07362 22.79557 21.78318 21.16832 24.94667 20.68851 23.79991 19.94086 19.37668 21.13135 19.72876 19.30003 19.44813 257.7363
Std. Error
798.8726 338.4001 14.21005 14.59433 14.36596 0.692032
0.6626 0.0580 0.0000 0.3784 0.2350 0.8402 0.5911 0.4033 0.3699 0.8542 0.8270 0.8860 0.9469 0.7402 0.9699 0.8374 0.8037 0.7886 0.3442 0.3564 0.0023
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CHMSPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:17 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-16.78873 367.4825 988.7707 -34.34913 -28.53230 -33.52476 -30.49173 -27.05903 -29.23824 -28.04013 -58.58216 -48.67089 -40.94757 -63.28382 -455.0310 0.514196 0.470875 246.1554 9513020. -1183.236 11.86967 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.777613 2.584443 5.603968 -1.789976 -1.373540 -1.758804 -1.737405 -1.116624 -1.203987 -1.335257 -2.689813 -2.593435 -2.604020 -2.331660 -1.712456
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
21.59008 142.1902 176.4412 19.18971 20.77282 19.06111 17.55016 24.23289 24.28453 20.99980 21.77927 18.76696 15.72475 27.14110 265.7183
Std. Error
798.8726 338.4001 13.93297 14.20746 14.04434 0.635076
0.4380 0.0107 0.0000 0.0754 0.1715 0.0806 0.0843 0.2659 0.2304 0.1837 0.0079 0.0104 0.0101 0.0210 0.0888
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CHMSPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:40 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-48.95119 323.8547 1088.822 8.826795 1.578975 8.140121 5.713854 0.396499 6.456119 15.92556 -9.396414 4.091684 29.72074 -1.736440 3.411509 12.80837 -719.3377
0.641923 0.604961 174.2940 4708652. -1122.755 17.36676 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -4.041721 2.864683 6.584410 0.461805 0.113053 0.561932 0.423880 0.029784 0.466534 1.089287 -0.563688 0.321749 1.664804 -0.126318 0.272057 1.044168 -3.678604
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.11147 113.0508 165.3636 19.11368 13.96674 14.48595 13.47988 13.31259 13.83848 14.62017 16.66954 12.71702 17.85239 13.74659 12.53968 12.26657 195.5464
Std. Error
442.2124 277.3079 13.25297 13.56406 13.37919 1.273272
0.0001 0.0048 0.0000 0.6449 0.9101 0.5750 0.6722 0.9763 0.6415 0.2777 0.5738 0.7481 0.0980 0.8996 0.7859 0.2980 0.0003
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CLTHGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-50.86984 285.7176 1119.689 9.267682 19.86583 1.500584 -12.53680 10.21671 15.96953 -6.557620 2.962830 -2.904475 -1.381160 2.230247 14.16579 10.43153 10.71335 6.719662 16.42933 13.29432 -706.9892 0.651266 0.605076 174.2685 4585798. -1120.482 14.09974 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -4.012866 2.434273 7.836541 0.747801 1.616639 0.121134 -0.799166 1.025948 1.248475 -0.520466 0.252025 -0.184012 -0.112800 0.153740 1.314885 1.005263 0.892649 0.599232 1.651707 1.378769 -4.122018
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.67668 117.3729 142.8806 12.39325 12.28835 12.38782 15.68735 9.958310 12.79123 12.59953 11.75608 15.78416 12.24435 14.50666 10.77341 10.37691 12.00175 11.21378 9.946882 9.642170 171.5153
Std. Error
442.2124 277.3079 13.27304 13.65733 13.42896 1.341985
0.0001 0.0161 0.0000 0.4557 0.1080 0.9037 0.4254 0.3066 0.2138 0.6035 0.8014 0.8543 0.9103 0.8780 0.1905 0.3164 0.3735 0.5499 0.1007 0.1700 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CLTHGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:20 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-61.01899 278.1950 1012.773 -22.49212 -8.730755 -21.31213 -12.29492 -11.45587 -17.41487 -6.740612 -34.92255 -20.45472 -14.21688 -33.47874 -562.3009
0.680673 0.652198 163.5417 4199104. -1112.906 23.90419 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.944180 3.256652 5.994224 -1.487900 -0.660129 -1.582513 -1.193609 -0.693519 -1.046719 -0.449847 -1.789417 -1.294203 -1.151890 -1.631379 -2.559754
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
15.47064 85.42362 168.9582 15.11669 13.22583 13.46728 10.30062 16.51847 16.63758 14.98424 19.51616 15.80487 12.34221 20.52174 219.6699
Std. Error
442.2124 277.3079 13.11518 13.38967 13.22655 1.209252
0.0001 0.0014 0.0000 0.1388 0.5101 0.1155 0.2344 0.4890 0.2968 0.6534 0.0755 0.1975 0.2511 0.1048 0.0114
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CLTHGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:40 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-31.59598 -1673.608 -22.14725 61.58072 62.45713 92.26738 40.21782 111.8082 89.92169 73.38518 86.51662 97.34902 75.88916 72.13619 52.80731 89.90894 2979.393 0.198278 0.115520 745.4682 86137039 -1372.718 2.395869 0.003126
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.455897 -2.587822 -0.056799 0.854963 0.838831 1.268854 0.528106 1.223072 1.058978 0.801469 0.930781 1.080957 0.709635 0.678367 0.494280 0.864699 3.623190
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
69.30509 646.7245 389.9229 72.02737 74.45738 72.71708 76.15485 91.41589 84.91365 91.56338 92.95059 90.05821 106.9411 106.3380 106.8369 103.9771 822.3123
Std. Error
1121.441 792.6566 16.15951 16.47060 16.28572 0.212900
0.6491 0.0106 0.9548 0.3939 0.4029 0.2064 0.5982 0.2232 0.2913 0.4241 0.3534 0.2814 0.4790 0.4986 0.6218 0.3885 0.0004
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CMPSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-34.40800 -1933.428 194.4845 -22.84518 4.951164 2.898848 52.72647 47.90234 3.715128 46.60758 19.62573 14.49892 4.416161 23.16277 28.93561 49.22106 32.76791 29.85651 33.45601 27.13778 3004.347
0.157430 0.045831 774.2795 90525816 -1376.991 1.410676 0.125224
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.472365 -2.461590 0.526920 -0.409851 0.084744 0.051960 0.820232 0.724523 0.061241 0.651157 0.307619 0.211049 0.070955 0.365098 0.441023 0.724706 0.494888 0.473586 0.560739 0.493713 3.283955
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
72.84201 785.4387 369.0971 55.74017 58.42528 55.79042 64.28237 66.11569 60.66415 71.57660 63.79887 68.69935 62.23878 63.44270 65.61027 67.91866 66.21275 63.04355 59.66415 54.96667 914.8562
Std. Error
1121.441 792.6566 16.25571 16.64000 16.41163 0.250861
0.6373 0.0150 0.5990 0.6825 0.9326 0.9586 0.4134 0.4699 0.9512 0.5159 0.7588 0.8331 0.9435 0.7155 0.6598 0.4698 0.6214 0.6365 0.5758 0.6222 0.0013
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CMPSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:20 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-26.74122 -1844.484 182.5674 39.66108 1.679234 33.42300 -22.45259 6.429177 -41.52562 13.32986 -18.03935 3.995173 -21.31071 -36.85305 2894.909 0.141221 0.064642 766.6093 92267304 -1378.630 1.844117 0.036629
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.345786 -2.601455 0.413567 0.625590 0.026509 0.506131 -0.384016 0.108840 -0.749524 0.244547 -0.364284 0.075712 -0.404726 -0.805210 3.186439
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
77.33458 709.0202 441.4454 63.39793 63.34507 66.03628 58.46784 59.06980 55.40263 54.50843 49.52002 52.76824 52.65471 45.76825 908.5090
Std. Error
1121.441 792.6566 16.20500 16.47949 16.31637 0.226369
0.7300 0.0102 0.6798 0.5325 0.9789 0.6135 0.7015 0.9135 0.4547 0.8071 0.7161 0.9397 0.6862 0.4219 0.0017
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CMPSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:40 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-10.01909 82.58087 825.6453 18.91486 12.65861 18.79723 10.89818 8.746074 10.62598 15.81263 -2.151037 7.842389 23.43077 -1.702936 1.089353 11.14677 -152.6000
0.475644 0.421517 162.9200 4114153. -1111.148 8.787539 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.778610 0.687904 8.227962 1.248695 1.103232 1.495075 0.925847 0.670842 0.747916 1.147329 -0.141659 0.637855 1.384769 -0.111719 0.077119 0.806449 -0.973396
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.86792 120.0471 100.3463 15.14770 11.47411 12.57276 11.77104 13.03745 14.20745 13.78212 15.18457 12.29493 16.92035 15.24299 14.12557 13.82204 156.7707
Std. Error
671.0650 214.2047 13.11800 13.42909 13.24422 0.813679
0.4374 0.4925 0.0000 0.2137 0.2716 0.1369 0.3560 0.5033 0.4556 0.2530 0.8875 0.5245 0.1681 0.9112 0.9386 0.4212 0.3319
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNDISEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-10.82727 40.38967 871.6710 8.545222 16.36610 1.807445 -5.804706 11.62186 12.98159 -0.967395 5.485675 2.210049 -2.116046 2.685291 8.814172 7.500791 6.620930 4.876849 14.80071 12.91022 -156.6783 0.474006 0.404338 165.3214 4127006. -1111.416 6.803772 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.717340 0.340278 8.336559 0.702579 1.430885 0.162836 -0.398072 1.058466 0.951692 -0.072562 0.431859 0.143394 -0.160932 0.170417 0.649466 0.575114 0.453580 0.369034 1.132633 1.012849 -0.943987
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
15.09365 118.6962 104.5600 12.16264 11.43775 11.09976 14.58204 10.97991 13.64053 13.33202 12.70246 15.41239 13.14867 15.75719 13.57142 13.04226 14.59705 13.21517 13.06753 12.74644 165.9751
Std. Error
671.0650 214.2047 13.16763 13.55192 13.32355 0.881961
0.4743 0.7341 0.0000 0.4834 0.1545 0.8709 0.6911 0.2915 0.3428 0.9423 0.6665 0.8862 0.8724 0.8649 0.5170 0.5661 0.6508 0.7126 0.2592 0.3128 0.3467
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNDISEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:20 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-21.68356 40.62244 764.1705 -11.62289 -3.488525 -10.75532 -13.44763 -9.280953 -20.79845 -10.45918 -31.73910 -20.65843 -16.77781 -31.89466 -16.08262
0.518312 0.475359 155.1530 3779373. -1103.849 12.06695 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.473079 0.405361 6.495888 -0.837350 -0.265477 -0.812518 -1.191569 -0.647958 -1.375582 -0.771472 -1.976488 -1.616405 -1.529527 -1.888236 -0.099228
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
14.71989 100.2130 117.6391 13.88057 13.14061 13.23703 11.28565 14.32339 15.11975 13.55743 16.05833 12.78048 10.96928 16.89125 162.0772
Std. Error
671.0650 214.2047 13.00987 13.28436 13.12124 0.747567
0.1427 0.6858 0.0000 0.4037 0.7910 0.4177 0.2352 0.5180 0.1709 0.4416 0.0499 0.1080 0.1281 0.0608 0.9211
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNDISEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:40 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-1726.884 -7732.920 51100.08 751.9258 513.0406 1424.034 803.0059 1352.870 1456.505 2064.006 1075.728 2290.628 3071.028 1867.814 2081.195 2224.468 -12630.54 0.647427 0.611032 8310.473 1.07E+10 -1787.454 17.78908 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.743755 -0.914312 6.273010 0.928898 0.877640 2.141356 1.197506 2.372033 2.276139 3.082515 1.599458 4.062382 3.755440 2.956231 3.056488 3.214584 -1.341731
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
629.3870 8457.637 8146.022 809.4819 584.5684 665.0150 670.5650 570.3419 639.9017 669.5852 672.5581 563.8632 817.7547 631.8229 680.9105 691.9925 9413.615
Std. Error
20566.88 13325.05 20.98203 21.29312 21.10824 1.119374
0.0068 0.3620 0.0000 0.3544 0.3815 0.0338 0.2329 0.0189 0.0242 0.0024 0.1118 0.0001 0.0002 0.0036 0.0026 0.0016 0.1816
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNELEEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-1456.412 -12709.25 56481.41 -18.57814 852.6783 -269.5620 -252.0944 584.8155 437.1815 -52.36747 412.1454 184.1976 -366.1878 -232.9204 501.9572 121.9176 164.9178 55.10602 251.4430 78.43299 -14714.06
0.541347 0.480599 9603.300 1.39E+10 -1810.075 8.911260 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.764698 -1.276525 6.568916 -0.027898 1.285552 -0.401415 -0.299968 0.949829 0.696480 -0.071971 0.648277 0.216213 -0.489313 -0.267713 0.740836 0.184550 0.236852 0.079114 0.412795 0.153660 -1.334891
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
825.3035 9956.132 8598.285 665.9249 663.2782 671.5293 840.4054 615.7059 627.7018 727.6194 635.7555 851.9260 748.3706 870.0382 677.5551 660.6200 696.2901 696.5359 609.1229 510.4326 11022.67
Std. Error
20566.88 13325.05 21.29157 21.67586 21.44749 1.053086
0.0796 0.2037 0.0000 0.9778 0.2006 0.6887 0.7646 0.3437 0.4872 0.9427 0.5178 0.8291 0.6253 0.7893 0.4599 0.8538 0.8131 0.9370 0.6803 0.8781 0.1839
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNELEEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:20 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-2041.985 -13422.37 51965.27 -576.5033 -131.6067 -303.3163 -490.7945 -145.8968 -1166.825 -115.4227 -1842.061 -603.5405 -988.2056 -1932.644 -7605.012 0.581238 0.543896 8999.138 1.27E+10 -1802.250 15.56532 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.196920 -1.619978 5.276485 -0.642204 -0.161381 -0.380453 -0.756911 -0.176443 -1.318239 -0.140450 -1.843785 -0.713526 -1.309371 -1.999500 -0.704931
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
929.4764 8285.521 9848.463 897.6956 815.5035 797.2498 648.4175 826.8779 885.1393 821.8077 999.0650 845.8563 754.7178 966.5639 10788.31
Std. Error
20566.88 13325.05 21.13082 21.40531 21.24218 0.917331
0.0295 0.1072 0.0000 0.5217 0.8720 0.7041 0.4502 0.8602 0.1893 0.8885 0.0671 0.4766 0.1923 0.0473 0.4819
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNELEEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:40 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-2.198689 214.3522 778.0762 13.33416 6.614624 8.307494 3.814327 -4.631765 -0.016674 4.887719 -12.66886 -4.750074 10.24658 -14.36972 -12.80693 -3.282859 -407.0448
0.497719 0.445870 145.5836 3285159. -1091.797 9.599506 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.215026 2.055458 8.730527 0.971115 0.653356 0.754971 0.377163 -0.410859 -0.001292 0.408827 -0.928865 -0.455321 0.688867 -1.192967 -1.220133 -0.341949 -3.142077
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
10.22522 104.2844 89.12133 13.73078 10.12407 11.00373 10.11320 11.27338 12.90172 11.95546 13.63907 10.43237 14.87455 12.04536 10.49634 9.600438 129.5464
Std. Error
539.7501 195.5720 12.89298 13.20407 13.01920 0.978154
0.8300 0.0415 0.0000 0.3330 0.5145 0.4514 0.7066 0.6817 0.9990 0.6832 0.3544 0.6495 0.4919 0.2347 0.2243 0.7329 0.0020
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNSMGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-2.526869 210.6950 793.7869 10.10136 16.97405 2.549336 -8.994919 7.836394 11.67336 -4.827416 1.360729 -1.780470 -1.504155 1.425685 3.487384 0.468326 1.644877 -0.970981 8.520216 7.708271 -417.1674 0.501201 0.435135 146.9871 3262386. -1091.198 7.586351 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.224912 2.057369 8.339000 0.897959 1.621852 0.254873 -0.674764 0.844884 0.929093 -0.409560 0.124151 -0.130740 -0.136801 0.106699 0.317938 0.045617 0.137641 -0.091017 0.821069 0.750967 -3.022890
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.23493 102.4099 95.18970 11.24925 10.46584 10.00239 13.33047 9.275117 12.56424 11.78683 10.96028 13.61840 10.99518 13.36179 10.96877 10.26638 11.95049 10.66813 10.37698 10.26446 138.0028
Std. Error
539.7501 195.5720 12.93254 13.31683 13.08845 0.999342
0.8224 0.0414 0.0000 0.3706 0.1069 0.7992 0.5009 0.3995 0.3543 0.6827 0.9014 0.8962 0.8914 0.9152 0.7510 0.9637 0.8907 0.9276 0.4129 0.4538 0.0029
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNSMGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:20 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-17.36455 196.8491 669.0136 -15.77055 -8.611970 -16.14728 -14.62119 -13.39167 -18.57254 -14.27136 -32.04094 -25.01450 -19.26727 -33.42499 -230.9045
0.584948 0.547937 131.4941 2714639. -1075.391 15.80470 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.704263 2.853766 6.642767 -1.457944 -0.816831 -1.619033 -1.742210 -1.053033 -1.393397 -1.289289 -2.420899 -2.391091 -2.274357 -2.133888 -1.592484
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
10.18889 68.97869 100.7131 10.81698 10.54314 9.973408 8.392322 12.71724 13.32896 11.06917 13.23514 10.46154 8.471521 15.66389 144.9965
Std. Error
539.7501 195.5720 12.67897 12.95346 12.79034 0.922767
0.0903 0.0049 0.0000 0.1469 0.4153 0.1074 0.0834 0.2939 0.1655 0.1992 0.0166 0.0180 0.0243 0.0344 0.1133
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNSMGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:40 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-32.33290 16.57633 1149.181 28.39530 21.09398 32.78558 20.53100 23.02529 26.12248 35.06630 9.589492 25.13519 46.09909 14.31646 19.22835 31.74986 -65.29833 0.502794 0.451470 233.8386 8475480. -1173.304 9.796380 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.663261 0.086225 6.861147 1.318401 1.288379 1.943606 1.217895 1.283917 1.371039 1.739228 0.448409 1.350473 1.914252 0.623513 0.814895 1.376496 -0.268425
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
19.43947 192.2454 167.4911 21.53767 16.37249 16.86843 16.85777 17.93362 19.05306 20.16199 21.38561 18.61215 24.08203 22.96098 23.59610 23.06571 243.2646
Std. Error
903.7044 315.7301 13.84074 14.15183 13.96696 0.717037
0.0983 0.9314 0.0000 0.1893 0.1995 0.0538 0.2251 0.2011 0.1723 0.0840 0.6545 0.1788 0.0574 0.5339 0.4164 0.1707 0.7887
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNSMSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-34.40806 -82.80466 1239.389 8.972076 20.11530 1.591896 -4.611313 18.29591 18.42078 2.295447 11.38092 4.097694 -2.104735 5.258085 19.51551 18.27172 16.71287 15.20865 26.40967 22.93428 -57.06556
0.486705 0.418719 240.7183 8749738. -1176.043 7.158892 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.508455 -0.414821 7.816510 0.515877 1.182122 0.095007 -0.225514 1.103387 0.998314 0.118583 0.602017 0.184620 -0.107318 0.229246 0.957698 0.909338 0.784676 0.762671 1.364748 1.225144 -0.220987
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
22.81013 199.6153 158.5604 17.39188 17.01626 16.75566 20.44800 16.58159 18.45189 19.35728 18.90466 22.19525 19.61212 22.93642 20.37752 20.09342 21.29906 19.94130 19.35131 18.71967 258.2304
Std. Error
903.7044 315.7301 13.91910 14.30339 14.07502 0.804428
0.1335 0.6789 0.0000 0.6067 0.2390 0.9244 0.8219 0.2716 0.3197 0.9058 0.5481 0.8538 0.9147 0.8190 0.3397 0.3646 0.4339 0.4468 0.1744 0.2224 0.8254
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNSMSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:21 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-43.44277 -68.29469 1122.494 -13.99903 -0.471182 -11.57129 -16.43224 -9.033318 -26.51672 -6.849096 -40.88136 -21.93964 -20.28100 -40.00854 70.18509 0.498248 0.453506 233.4042 8552973. -1174.087 11.13597 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.805962 -0.367793 5.772648 -0.632131 -0.022864 -0.548193 -0.899792 -0.413980 -1.200768 -0.323953 -1.658914 -1.102886 -1.176878 -1.766337 0.273238
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.05519 185.6880 194.4505 22.14578 20.60770 21.10807 18.26225 21.82065 22.08314 21.14226 24.64345 19.89294 17.23288 22.65057 256.8642
Std. Error
903.7044 315.7301 13.82659 14.10108 13.93796 0.647645
0.0728 0.7135 0.0000 0.5282 0.9818 0.5843 0.3696 0.6795 0.2316 0.7464 0.0991 0.2718 0.2410 0.0793 0.7850
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNSMSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-118.4339 334.5546 2767.334 60.10581 36.75608 57.73532 28.96799 19.26610 42.36071 56.47810 -8.827383 12.68182 61.00990 -14.81965 -19.64017 12.06151 -590.7299
0.625257 0.586574 448.1204 31125842 -1285.178 16.16355 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.934119 1.019208 8.112518 1.430771 1.314079 1.929118 1.080153 0.680747 1.211183 1.675371 -0.221833 0.432929 1.364372 -0.436610 -0.605904 0.413214 -1.378924
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
30.10431 328.2495 341.1190 42.00938 27.97098 29.92836 26.81841 28.30143 34.97464 33.71080 39.79290 29.29304 44.71646 33.94252 32.41465 29.18950 428.3993
Std. Error
1893.690 696.9406 15.14161 15.45270 15.26782 1.133325
0.0001 0.3097 0.0000 0.1545 0.1908 0.0555 0.2818 0.4970 0.2277 0.0959 0.8247 0.6657 0.1744 0.6630 0.5455 0.6800 0.1699
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNSTAEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-115.4316 327.9194 2874.575 9.927539 30.64726 -17.74584 -42.78690 9.009007 17.52890 -27.65268 -3.417338 -19.38311 -17.83757 -6.365665 6.895811 0.159434 5.525337 -7.721741 21.95293 16.20313 -709.8403 0.613873 0.562731 460.8613 32071365 -1287.752 12.00317 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.318159 0.995558 8.209387 0.289420 0.939944 -0.576436 -1.049287 0.353268 0.504574 -0.824821 -0.112822 -0.467162 -0.527396 -0.148362 0.214309 0.005436 0.162324 -0.255780 0.727499 0.563690 -1.535765
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
34.78783 329.3825 350.1571 34.30152 32.60542 30.78546 40.77712 25.50193 34.74001 33.52568 30.28961 41.49120 33.82195 42.90638 32.17689 29.33020 34.03884 30.18905 30.17590 28.74478 462.2065
Std. Error
1893.690 696.9406 15.21804 15.60233 15.37396 1.176437
0.0011 0.3211 0.0000 0.7727 0.3487 0.5652 0.2957 0.7244 0.6146 0.4108 0.9103 0.6411 0.5987 0.8823 0.8306 0.9957 0.8713 0.7985 0.4680 0.5738 0.1267
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNSTAEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:21 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-149.5154 236.0890 2621.798 -34.50066 -7.882086 -24.24767 -23.66315 -13.29344 -35.22693 -10.45021 -93.76661 -57.66953 -48.97554 -103.6712 -256.2454
0.651867 0.620823 429.1576 28915673 -1278.844 20.99833 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.923326 0.927750 6.518520 -0.876544 -0.218850 -0.691019 -0.867421 -0.305571 -0.778148 -0.253249 -1.852146 -1.467280 -1.577692 -1.915714 -0.543941
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
38.10936 254.4747 402.2075 39.35987 36.01600 35.08971 27.27990 43.50363 45.27021 41.26456 50.62592 39.30371 31.04253 54.11621 471.0905
Std. Error
1893.690 696.9406 15.04470 15.31919 15.15606 1.055758
0.0001 0.3550 0.0000 0.3821 0.8271 0.4906 0.3870 0.7603 0.4377 0.8004 0.0659 0.1443 0.1166 0.0572 0.5873
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNSTAEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-20.09331 637.7599 2281.572 32.17281 20.62805 32.55298 24.98059 10.41563 25.42099 47.81974 -10.90992 9.387254 57.71743 -8.345575 -10.05457 10.02102 -1757.850 0.565455 0.520599 383.6120 22809513 -1258.444 12.60595 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.829144 2.369366 8.570684 0.879352 0.810716 1.193844 1.031439 0.395642 0.829669 1.618593 -0.303017 0.356203 1.493237 -0.281804 -0.389157 0.424112 -4.894161
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.23379 269.1690 266.2065 36.58694 25.44423 27.26736 24.21917 26.32591 30.63993 29.54401 36.00426 26.35363 38.65257 29.61479 25.83677 23.62826 359.1729
Std. Error
962.8209 554.0421 14.83075 15.14183 14.95696 1.136858
0.4083 0.0191 0.0000 0.3806 0.4188 0.2344 0.3039 0.6929 0.4080 0.1076 0.7623 0.7222 0.1374 0.7785 0.6977 0.6721 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNVELEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-18.81056 578.9219 2383.643 26.02457 49.93969 2.872430 -31.27244 15.34603 28.96261 -17.16049 5.180810 -7.863618 -5.057204 -2.341993 14.87072 6.550640 12.76059 5.323014 25.50049 19.53782 -1811.557
0.565502 0.507953 388.6388 22807061 -1258.435 9.826377 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.672842 2.176569 8.485821 0.900449 1.768741 0.107964 -0.876958 0.704739 0.927643 -0.571580 0.197910 -0.216794 -0.183598 -0.066075 0.543863 0.275223 0.438006 0.204887 1.036425 0.789771 -4.789578
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.95689 265.9791 280.8972 28.90178 28.23460 26.60545 35.66013 21.77548 31.22172 30.02288 26.17764 36.27234 27.54494 35.44459 27.34276 23.80119 29.13338 25.98019 24.60427 24.73861 378.2290
Std. Error
962.8209 554.0421 14.87715 15.26144 15.03306 1.197815
0.5021 0.0311 0.0000 0.3693 0.0790 0.9142 0.3819 0.4821 0.3551 0.5685 0.8434 0.8287 0.8546 0.9474 0.5873 0.7835 0.6620 0.8379 0.3017 0.4309 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNVELEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:21 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-51.63382 545.2069 2102.264 -40.13720 -12.71207 -33.51982 -21.37583 -18.45853 -33.91592 -24.55547 -87.33001 -59.49335 -46.21891 -90.13463 -1391.977 0.618541 0.584526 357.1206 20023014 -1247.239 18.18412 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.797916 2.838407 6.827080 -1.275369 -0.438024 -1.219276 -0.977027 -0.510925 -0.913382 -0.810027 -2.164027 -1.874646 -1.913578 -2.028431 -3.351575
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
28.71871 192.0820 307.9302 31.47106 29.02142 27.49158 21.87844 36.12769 37.13226 30.31436 40.35533 31.73578 24.15313 44.43565 415.3204
Std. Error
962.8209 554.0421 14.67719 14.95168 14.78856 1.084002
0.0741 0.0051 0.0000 0.2041 0.6620 0.2246 0.3301 0.6101 0.3624 0.4192 0.0320 0.0627 0.0575 0.0442 0.0010
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CNVELEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-12.42646 160.2776 267.9676 0.240965 -1.198096 -1.600811 -2.053299 -5.373980 -3.259421 0.933091 -6.072025 -3.851206 4.440078 -3.937419 -1.663697 -1.921675 -183.4032
0.543813 0.496722 57.46287 511807.2 -931.9034 11.54829 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.503459 3.746871 5.503844 0.038506 -0.247724 -0.320299 -0.456680 -1.135943 -0.793266 0.206003 -1.170427 -0.892595 0.791014 -0.806118 -0.371875 -0.431412 -2.962987
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
4.963718 42.77639 48.68736 6.257826 4.836406 4.997871 4.496149 4.730852 4.108865 4.529491 5.187874 4.314619 5.613147 4.884422 4.473807 4.454381 61.89807
Std. Error
183.2669 80.99971 11.03376 11.34485 11.15998 0.987979
0.0133 0.0003 0.0000 0.9693 0.8047 0.7492 0.6485 0.2577 0.4288 0.8371 0.2436 0.3735 0.4301 0.4214 0.7105 0.6668 0.0035
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CONPKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-13.77570 151.6907 267.8334 5.356970 6.522306 3.508578 -2.291147 3.946750 7.519685 -0.921700 0.484377 -0.391353 0.113519 1.512335 4.139474 3.862455 4.030057 3.503693 6.019699 5.676280 -168.7446 0.570353 0.513446 56.50010 482031.4 -926.7487 10.02255 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.865089 3.295093 6.625654 1.269141 1.611813 0.780691 -0.433066 0.964656 1.701509 -0.232194 0.120532 -0.084029 0.028676 0.365127 1.099609 0.979466 0.941907 0.876624 1.707160 1.571804 -3.014031
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
4.808123 46.03535 40.42370 4.220941 4.046565 4.494192 5.290519 4.091354 4.419420 3.969521 4.018646 4.657369 3.958719 4.141945 3.764497 3.943430 4.278614 3.996803 3.526149 3.611315 55.98634
Std. Error
183.2669 80.99971 11.02033 11.40462 11.17625 1.005680
0.0048 0.0012 0.0000 0.2063 0.1091 0.4362 0.6656 0.3363 0.0909 0.8167 0.9042 0.9331 0.9772 0.7155 0.2733 0.3289 0.3477 0.3821 0.0898 0.1181 0.0030
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CONPKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:21 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-18.15611 153.9274 219.8056 -8.165057 -4.826096 -9.231774 -6.418296 -7.348504 -6.254645 -6.313783 -11.21097 -8.000012 -6.739331 -10.63282 -109.7298
0.624197 0.590686 51.82174 421622.4 -915.2333 18.62656 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.592546 4.514091 5.321577 -1.820354 -1.257623 -2.167764 -1.800841 -1.487094 -1.291858 -1.533042 -2.057638 -1.719583 -1.624360 -1.903552 -1.617864
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
5.053829 34.09931 41.30460 4.485422 3.837474 4.258663 3.564054 4.941518 4.841588 4.118467 5.448468 4.652299 4.148913 5.585778 67.82390
Std. Error
183.2669 80.99971 10.81667 11.09116 10.92803 0.947820
0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0706 0.2104 0.0317 0.0736 0.1390 0.1983 0.1273 0.0413 0.0875 0.1063 0.0588 0.1077
Prob.
Dependent Variable: CONPKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-56.86343 136.2940 9626.289 197.1435 34.84005 128.2901 23.40593 67.88053 145.4438 154.3390 -118.2731 -14.27531 161.8870 -82.43820 -73.00440 72.47298 -2392.164 0.519304 0.469684 1634.851 4.14E+08 -1507.788 10.46558 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.440534 0.093973 6.634852 1.140821 0.276825 0.958824 0.192214 0.597312 1.063476 1.156278 -0.777742 -0.114023 0.970535 -0.688311 -0.642258 0.669226 -1.330655
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
129.0783 1450.359 1450.867 172.8085 125.8558 133.7994 121.7701 113.6434 136.7626 133.4791 152.0724 125.1968 166.8019 119.7688 113.6683 108.2937 1797.735
Std. Error
6658.741 2244.971 17.73010 18.04119 17.85631 1.075731
0.6602 0.9253 0.0000 0.2557 0.7823 0.3391 0.8478 0.5512 0.2892 0.2493 0.4379 0.9094 0.3333 0.4923 0.5217 0.5043 0.1853
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DEFENEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-50.79623 231.3765 9838.135 -15.72493 58.39745 -68.65380 -168.6211 26.75587 32.47024 -69.73706 -27.04539 -113.6939 -135.1094 -68.73790 -21.75598 -3.608170 27.63063 -64.97263 113.4852 103.1435 -2732.134
0.520844 0.457380 1653.708 4.13E+08 -1507.512 8.206869 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.379439 0.165955 7.137217 -0.124092 0.491719 -0.625625 -1.252509 0.279749 0.270582 -0.595650 -0.245453 -0.770610 -1.077948 -0.421846 -0.195050 -0.033085 0.224355 -0.584568 0.988157 0.913102 -1.507010
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
133.8721 1394.212 1378.427 126.7204 118.7617 109.7364 134.6266 95.64238 120.0013 117.0773 110.1854 147.5375 125.3395 162.9455 111.5403 109.0572 123.1558 111.1465 114.8453 112.9596 1812.950
Std. Error
6658.741 2244.971 17.77340 18.15769 17.92931 1.151333
0.7049 0.8684 0.0000 0.9014 0.6236 0.5325 0.2123 0.7801 0.7871 0.5523 0.8064 0.4421 0.2828 0.6737 0.8456 0.9737 0.8228 0.5597 0.3247 0.3626 0.1339
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DEFENEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:21 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-110.8042 -119.1189 9418.517 -165.7436 -110.0098 -148.2817 -79.60505 34.21029 -66.11607 82.37912 -210.9673 -83.24715 -48.32778 -265.2396 -1775.999 0.532271 0.490563 1602.346 4.03E+08 -1505.437 12.76175 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.691462 -0.094883 5.912711 -1.194695 -0.853358 -1.045340 -0.696481 0.213932 -0.380952 0.494950 -1.049459 -0.537369 -0.346381 -1.332429 -0.954248
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
160.2462 1255.426 1592.927 138.7329 128.9140 141.8502 114.2961 159.9118 173.5549 166.4394 201.0249 154.9161 139.5219 199.0647 1861.152
Std. Error
6658.741 2244.971 17.67949 17.95399 17.79086 1.034621
0.4903 0.9245 0.0000 0.2340 0.3948 0.2975 0.4872 0.8309 0.7038 0.6213 0.2956 0.5918 0.7295 0.1846 0.3414
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DEFENEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-99.77889 1966.430 3563.093 13.32796 11.30634 17.75894 36.00413 -13.52191 -4.334978 43.50558 -59.89587 -30.10047 63.76845 -66.00889 -31.47197 -25.73992 -2739.793
0.505112 0.454026 776.1537 93374258 -1379.656 9.887620 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.513108 3.494910 6.299639 0.165108 0.165107 0.262739 0.550298 -0.197571 -0.069253 0.642071 -0.766297 -0.484282 0.838391 -1.085614 -0.524887 -0.470648 -3.637480
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
65.94300 562.6553 565.6028 80.72248 68.47887 67.59144 65.42657 68.44064 62.59605 67.75826 78.16270 62.15485 76.06054 60.80328 59.95946 54.69039 753.2119
Std. Error
2221.664 1050.417 16.24018 16.55127 16.36640 0.879250
0.1323 0.0006 0.0000 0.8691 0.8691 0.7931 0.5829 0.8436 0.9449 0.5218 0.4447 0.6289 0.4031 0.2793 0.6004 0.6386 0.0004
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DGRETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-107.8770 1932.465 3616.628 57.44415 59.97719 23.32776 -60.39804 20.00473 70.76764 -24.81480 -11.79085 -18.16039 -8.244558 -9.860870 22.21641 5.117992 29.43050 44.67238 65.74469 55.61576 -2724.315 0.515601 0.451442 777.9882 91395108 -1377.813 8.036331 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.539068 3.182169 6.825026 0.986677 1.082391 0.379820 -0.941693 0.395719 1.176523 -0.443439 -0.208522 -0.263071 -0.145078 -0.153006 0.411579 0.096456 0.522178 0.764284 1.263639 1.002445 -3.683229
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
70.09241 607.2793 529.9069 58.21984 55.41177 61.41801 64.13774 50.55281 60.14979 55.95994 56.54500 69.03222 56.82853 64.44778 53.97856 53.06063 56.36101 58.45000 52.02808 55.48012 739.6540
Std. Error
2221.664 1050.417 16.26527 16.64956 16.42119 0.904944
0.1259 0.0018 0.0000 0.3254 0.2808 0.7046 0.3479 0.6929 0.2412 0.6581 0.8351 0.7929 0.8848 0.8786 0.6812 0.9233 0.6023 0.4459 0.2083 0.3177 0.0003
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DGRETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:22 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-166.3637 1853.093 3064.636 -143.1354 -88.97231 -132.1781 -79.29892 -82.55160 -78.28833 -68.16130 -130.9331 -107.9250 -72.49430 -121.6777 -1912.808
0.589267 0.552641 702.5705 77496043 -1363.626 16.08882 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.615087 4.056615 6.143544 -2.506219 -1.634547 -2.351065 -1.780333 -1.154751 -1.258234 -1.164098 -1.778958 -1.688312 -1.444284 -1.617739 -2.505579
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
63.61689 456.8076 498.8385 57.11210 54.43239 56.22053 44.54163 71.48869 62.22081 58.55290 73.60103 63.92478 50.19395 75.21468 763.4195
Std. Error
2221.664 1050.417 16.03054 16.30503 16.14191 0.875399
0.0098 0.0001 0.0000 0.0132 0.1041 0.0200 0.0770 0.2499 0.2102 0.2462 0.0772 0.0933 0.1507 0.1077 0.0132
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DGRETEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-89.74715 1904.084 4247.543 43.24065 24.80638 39.34918 35.24825 -2.104264 23.44294 65.02945 -47.78725 -2.092279 99.45802 -18.97106 -3.897196 25.12784 -3914.910 0.577505 0.533892 756.0433 88598223 -1375.140 13.24176 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.704931 3.664832 6.003639 0.538931 0.414289 0.642531 0.624009 -0.034819 0.395872 1.050031 -0.642579 -0.035901 1.243200 -0.297613 -0.065320 0.443157 -4.669956
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
52.63977 519.5555 707.4947 80.23406 59.87701 61.24091 56.48678 60.43385 59.21856 61.93100 74.36792 58.27919 80.00160 63.74395 59.66354 56.70189 838.3184
Std. Error
1663.547 1107.398 16.18768 16.49877 16.31390 1.206014
0.0902 0.0003 0.0000 0.5907 0.6792 0.5215 0.5335 0.9723 0.6927 0.2953 0.5214 0.9714 0.2157 0.7664 0.9480 0.6583 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DISTVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-89.80090 1784.324 4405.970 57.91624 94.55051 21.55517 -50.91550 39.74380 78.39870 -37.76952 5.337683 -5.335091 -7.587057 4.823673 39.66401 19.61940 22.37774 10.50133 53.43283 39.65766 -3960.079
0.587364 0.532711 757.0012 86530673 -1373.110 10.74701 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.693180 3.208250 7.064763 1.060901 1.720454 0.391414 -0.753272 0.841859 1.393102 -0.689470 0.100394 -0.079013 -0.147124 0.080020 0.847726 0.433695 0.435907 0.220129 1.288758 0.990276 -5.263616
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
53.03682 556.1675 623.6543 54.59158 54.95671 55.06996 67.59248 47.20960 56.27637 54.78050 53.16744 67.52189 51.56923 60.28055 46.78871 45.23779 51.33606 47.70533 41.46071 40.04706 752.3495
Std. Error
1663.547 1107.398 16.21058 16.59487 16.36649 1.257444
0.0925 0.0016 0.0000 0.2904 0.0874 0.6960 0.4525 0.4012 0.1656 0.4916 0.9202 0.9371 0.8832 0.9363 0.3979 0.6651 0.6635 0.8261 0.1995 0.3236 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DISTVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:22 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-152.7384 1731.300 3836.607 -110.6053 -52.39609 -99.84005 -59.43033 -59.83995 -62.10015 -46.54046 -153.2574 -108.3306 -90.26826 -164.7966 -3138.773 0.640829 0.608801 692.6319 75319020 -1361.176 20.00840 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.538567 4.360585 5.702983 -1.730036 -0.982658 -1.734565 -1.376334 -0.842785 -0.885553 -0.754884 -1.916458 -1.608451 -1.733782 -1.925232 -3.333467
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
60.16717 397.0339 672.7369 63.93239 53.32076 57.55913 43.18017 71.00261 70.12585 61.65248 79.96911 67.35088 52.06435 85.59834 941.5941
Std. Error
1663.547 1107.398 16.00204 16.27654 16.11341 1.177276
0.0121 0.0000 0.0000 0.0856 0.3273 0.0848 0.1707 0.4006 0.3772 0.4514 0.0571 0.1097 0.0849 0.0560 0.0011
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DISTVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
21.56455 777.5228 3568.123 47.55915 29.45863 56.58443 41.85922 27.32233 46.71739 73.79860 -12.72137 23.70760 100.9269 -0.099056 2.047348 38.38444 -2983.287
0.567144 0.522462 569.3082 50237338 -1326.348 12.69292 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.616645 1.960141 8.533596 0.841078 0.809302 1.414571 1.277176 0.731274 1.129921 1.794167 -0.236996 0.637956 1.770383 -0.002285 0.054606 1.073093 -5.650884
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
34.97079 396.6667 418.1266 56.54546 36.40003 40.00112 32.77483 37.36264 41.34571 41.13251 53.67761 37.16182 57.00850 43.34970 37.49339 35.76992 527.9328
Std. Error
1259.180 823.8412 15.62033 15.93142 15.74654 1.278318
0.5384 0.0518 0.0000 0.4016 0.4196 0.1592 0.2034 0.4657 0.2603 0.0747 0.8130 0.5244 0.0786 0.9982 0.9565 0.2849 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DIVINEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
29.76618 689.2311 3754.093 33.18762 68.76906 3.152463 -52.67423 23.05911 42.99762 -29.54642 5.361649 -15.38197 -20.72843 -9.258700 14.91961 -3.909135 0.832272 -9.607592 31.73266 24.62782 -3124.532 0.560857 0.502693 580.9728 50966947 -1327.588 9.642596 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.732429 1.726179 8.898655 0.785311 1.717314 0.083395 -0.987499 0.686498 0.939732 -0.716591 0.134094 -0.283070 -0.483147 -0.174250 0.385631 -0.112428 0.018825 -0.255433 0.894085 0.724152 -5.826079
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
40.64036 399.2814 421.8720 42.26046 40.04455 37.80177 53.34102 33.58948 45.75520 41.23191 39.98424 54.33971 42.90297 53.13463 38.68886 34.77025 44.21198 37.61295 35.49176 34.00917 536.3009
Std. Error
1259.180 823.8412 15.68126 16.06554 15.83717 1.348953
0.4650 0.0864 0.0000 0.4335 0.0880 0.9336 0.3250 0.4935 0.3489 0.4747 0.8935 0.7775 0.6297 0.8619 0.7003 0.9106 0.9850 0.7987 0.3727 0.4701 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DIVINEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:22 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-27.54082 601.7301 3295.895 -65.30918 -28.88309 -63.65579 -43.98803 -39.61094 -69.06020 -33.37408 -131.6801 -89.74945 -73.33650 -140.8172 -2393.640
0.628193 0.595038 524.2646 43151983 -1313.273 18.94729 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.655389 2.217836 7.206929 -1.318390 -0.691132 -1.514090 -1.462483 -0.748171 -1.186588 -0.698775 -2.099667 -1.897840 -1.989212 -1.975123 -4.162753
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
42.02208 271.3141 457.3232 49.53707 41.79096 42.04226 30.07764 52.94372 58.20065 47.76085 62.71474 47.29032 36.86712 71.29539 575.0138
Std. Error
1259.180 823.8412 15.44504 15.71953 15.55641 1.235731
0.5132 0.0280 0.0000 0.1893 0.4905 0.1320 0.1456 0.4555 0.2372 0.4857 0.0374 0.0596 0.0484 0.0500 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DIVINEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
17.07377 142.4117 234.7603 -4.698373 -4.934381 -5.580604 -4.818005 -8.464477 -6.930196 -4.514208 -10.14728 -7.930217 -2.792608 -9.609948 -6.591719 -4.903760 -155.3718 0.288525 0.215082 82.65667 1058979. -994.4351 3.928577 0.000003
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 2.329906 2.292357 5.112874 -0.582767 -0.662717 -0.716040 -0.615805 -1.076065 -0.919808 -0.598166 -1.249442 -1.120410 -0.341782 -1.323553 -0.998174 -0.795841 -2.321688
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
7.328095 62.12460 45.91552 8.062187 7.445682 7.793707 7.823916 7.866137 7.534395 7.546752 8.121447 7.077961 8.170716 7.260721 6.603779 6.161734 66.92192
Std. Error
281.6888 93.29660 11.76087 12.07196 11.88709 0.399006
0.0211 0.0232 0.0000 0.5609 0.5085 0.4750 0.5389 0.2836 0.3591 0.5506 0.2134 0.2643 0.7330 0.1876 0.3198 0.4273 0.0216
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DURHPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
14.88861 148.1424 216.1319 5.232180 6.534798 2.895354 -3.160301 2.015702 4.346353 -2.709582 1.199577 1.515706 3.247647 4.169090 2.310709 1.901815 3.607667 3.710916 6.002109 5.285146 -131.8092
0.281174 0.185966 84.17579 1069920. -995.3190 2.953241 0.000090
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 1.995885 2.449933 3.693455 0.785485 1.021872 0.453846 -0.469219 0.313648 0.603642 -0.418749 0.184378 0.221655 0.506295 0.609759 0.359825 0.300009 0.536040 0.569113 0.970558 0.841701 -1.572088
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
7.459656 60.46795 58.51754 6.661086 6.394930 6.379595 6.735239 6.426634 7.200220 6.470667 6.506075 6.838123 6.414541 6.837273 6.421762 6.339204 6.730222 6.520524 6.184187 6.279126 83.84338
Std. Error
281.6888 93.29660 11.81766 12.20195 11.97358 0.350537
0.0477 0.0154 0.0003 0.4334 0.3085 0.6506 0.6396 0.7542 0.5470 0.6760 0.8540 0.8249 0.6134 0.5429 0.7195 0.7646 0.5927 0.5701 0.3333 0.4013 0.1180
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DURHPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:22 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
9.326754 145.8334 161.8118 -7.337003 -5.535554 -7.902093 -8.516097 -8.119202 -7.285778 -9.307897 -10.91572 -11.11430 -10.03484 -12.29057 -58.16271 0.344801 0.286376 78.81349 975215.8 -987.3485 5.901571 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic 1.438626 2.953826 3.253372 -1.134498 -0.847269 -1.200049 -1.393524 -1.083424 -1.039032 -1.476639 -1.617295 -1.878381 -1.634282 -1.653241 -0.740969
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
6.483097 49.37103 49.73663 6.467179 6.533406 6.584810 6.111196 7.494018 7.012084 6.303435 6.749373 5.916959 6.140212 7.434229 78.49547
Std. Error
281.6888 93.29660 11.65522 11.92971 11.76658 0.318828
0.1522 0.0036 0.0014 0.2583 0.3981 0.2319 0.1654 0.2803 0.3004 0.1418 0.1078 0.0622 0.1042 0.1003 0.4598
Prob.
Dependent Variable: DURHPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-23.29427 679.4189 2305.831 38.29343 26.86888 39.09730 30.69885 14.31340 29.92495 52.46769 -7.195862 12.81887 58.61122 -11.14903 -13.58071 7.715514 -1756.656
0.571726 0.527517 388.6751 23415593 -1260.699 12.93238 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.979859 2.526902 8.597318 1.033566 1.053966 1.423053 1.258987 0.539478 0.961080 1.773903 -0.198675 0.483249 1.492613 -0.369160 -0.512464 0.318923 -4.850703
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
23.77307 268.8743 268.2035 37.04982 25.49312 27.47424 24.38377 26.53196 31.13681 29.57755 36.21932 26.52645 39.26751 30.20111 26.50082 24.19237 362.1446
Std. Error
1014.760 565.4495 14.85697 15.16806 14.98319 1.146205
0.3287 0.0125 0.0000 0.3029 0.2935 0.1567 0.2099 0.5903 0.3380 0.0780 0.8428 0.6296 0.1376 0.7125 0.6091 0.7502 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELECTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-20.81298 625.3880 2422.498 27.69468 50.75416 1.766905 -32.66820 14.76795 30.74699 -18.52988 3.901188 -7.995240 -5.132853 -3.697883 14.37493 4.510521 9.347503 2.261701 23.64060 16.84118 -1835.119 0.568013 0.510797 395.4928 23618593 -1261.442 9.927392 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.751213 2.335571 8.424398 0.943286 1.755968 0.065683 -0.898526 0.663545 0.970167 -0.604591 0.146685 -0.215931 -0.185775 -0.103496 0.515879 0.185540 0.313090 0.085238 0.941057 0.672249 -4.773586
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.70582 267.7666 287.5573 29.35980 28.90380 26.90041 36.35757 22.25612 31.69247 30.64861 26.59561 37.02688 27.62948 35.72961 27.86490 24.31028 29.85561 26.53401 25.12132 25.05199 384.4320
Std. Error
1014.760 565.4495 14.91211 15.29640 15.06803 1.204614
0.4537 0.0208 0.0000 0.3470 0.0811 0.9477 0.3703 0.5080 0.3335 0.5464 0.8836 0.8293 0.8529 0.9177 0.6067 0.8531 0.7546 0.9322 0.3482 0.5025 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELECTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:22 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-54.21132 586.3176 2141.906 -39.36814 -11.54105 -31.90155 -19.72996 -16.87485 -32.19792 -22.08100 -85.50302 -58.89215 -46.60390 -93.05714 -1408.408
0.617250 0.583120 365.0895 20926586 -1251.035 18.08499 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.911398 2.987141 6.826723 -1.218688 -0.389966 -1.141299 -0.874659 -0.453887 -0.842154 -0.709076 -2.067970 -1.797931 -1.891254 -2.042217 -3.305560
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
28.36212 196.2805 313.7531 32.30371 29.59504 27.95196 22.55732 37.17854 38.23281 31.14053 41.34635 32.75552 24.64179 45.56672 426.0723
Std. Error
1014.760 565.4495 14.72133 14.99582 14.83270 1.090336
0.0578 0.0033 0.0000 0.2248 0.6971 0.2555 0.3831 0.6505 0.4010 0.4793 0.0403 0.0741 0.0604 0.0428 0.0012
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELECTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-20.02879 224.8384 2870.319 41.35241 14.43280 36.12574 23.58432 23.90969 31.57857 51.51473 -6.702520 40.89848 110.8926 27.79607 51.74671 84.12869 -1297.291 0.567881 0.523275 461.2044 32969971 -1290.128 12.73109 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.590684 0.581381 7.661073 0.915665 0.451852 1.049996 0.689053 0.735217 0.879669 1.375477 -0.165317 1.357250 2.421675 0.685616 1.302087 2.174120 -2.673918
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
33.90777 386.7317 374.6628 45.16109 31.94145 34.40558 34.22715 32.52061 35.89826 37.45227 40.54353 30.13335 45.79170 40.54175 39.74137 38.69552 485.1649
Std. Error
1559.268 667.9740 15.19916 15.51025 15.32538 1.130668
0.5556 0.5618 0.0000 0.3613 0.6520 0.2954 0.4918 0.4633 0.3804 0.1710 0.8689 0.1767 0.0166 0.4940 0.1948 0.0312 0.0083
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELEQPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-25.97423 5.310335 2997.483 12.59715 44.15473 1.503114 -10.32114 47.31135 41.22113 10.60624 31.48422 11.61699 -6.356403 10.41964 43.38053 32.30070 36.08176 34.54876 51.64220 52.73300 -1198.101
0.565276 0.507697 468.6792 33168692 -1290.645 9.817361 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.702472 0.013431 8.571486 0.383851 1.377882 0.048109 -0.253499 1.636459 1.113461 0.304443 0.987402 0.262743 -0.173325 0.226687 1.205560 0.951860 0.936930 0.970824 1.487230 1.621076 -2.346531
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
36.97544 395.3677 349.7040 32.81779 32.04535 31.24366 40.71471 28.91082 37.02074 34.83822 31.88593 44.21425 36.67322 45.96494 35.98370 33.93428 38.51064 35.58706 34.72376 32.52963 510.5839
Std. Error
1559.268 667.9740 15.25169 15.63597 15.40760 1.238612
0.4835 0.9893 0.0000 0.7016 0.1703 0.9617 0.8002 0.1038 0.2673 0.7612 0.3250 0.7931 0.8626 0.8210 0.2299 0.3427 0.3503 0.3332 0.1390 0.1071 0.0202
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELEQPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:22 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-37.85987 57.68991 2812.033 -11.64895 17.69261 -11.12408 -10.87474 -6.356699 -49.61717 -6.928156 -88.22913 -31.98890 -24.18920 -80.68949 -1035.048 0.562341 0.523314 461.1855 33392650 -1291.224 14.40907 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.832480 0.157514 6.364012 -0.266288 0.428293 -0.277018 -0.332524 -0.144835 -1.039786 -0.153603 -1.579485 -0.726208 -0.669567 -1.495591 -1.961222
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
45.47844 366.2532 441.8648 43.74566 41.30962 40.15654 32.70362 43.88931 47.71865 45.10417 55.85943 44.04920 36.12665 53.95159 527.7567
Std. Error
1559.268 667.9740 15.18865 15.46314 15.30002 1.029335
0.4064 0.8750 0.0000 0.7904 0.6690 0.7821 0.7399 0.8850 0.3000 0.8781 0.1162 0.4688 0.5041 0.1368 0.0516
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELEQPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:42 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-29.61729 -305.3262 1082.533 18.45706 1.534607 15.51991 7.623757 22.79326 20.78093 27.39692 8.459748 32.77441 52.32224 28.02224 42.75429 59.62290 75.38704
0.491890 0.439439 228.9206 8122719. -1169.648 9.378238 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.455522 -1.206270 5.748912 0.942381 0.088427 0.900832 0.397232 1.230032 1.104084 1.342110 0.406998 1.747106 2.174819 1.230350 1.559883 2.289815 0.331791
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.34823 253.1160 188.3023 19.58557 17.35449 17.22841 19.19222 18.53062 18.82187 20.41333 20.78574 18.75925 24.05820 22.77582 27.40865 26.03831 227.2127
Std. Error
669.0683 305.7550 13.79823 14.10932 13.92445 0.714653
0.1475 0.2296 0.0000 0.3475 0.9297 0.3691 0.6917 0.2205 0.2713 0.1815 0.6846 0.0826 0.0312 0.2204 0.1208 0.0234 0.7405
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELETREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-31.63796 -421.5805 1149.255 -1.828514 11.30292 -5.679301 1.766326 19.65016 9.544580 2.523245 13.41746 6.399616 -4.202246 3.885746 21.61539 17.56914 16.14298 18.90422 25.72473 18.14061 122.2469 0.456574 0.384597 239.8576 8687282. -1175.427 6.343331 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.543448 -1.476045 6.243938 -0.101765 0.672997 -0.354899 0.091118 1.161330 0.568027 0.130698 0.748605 0.289859 -0.236284 0.171518 1.052361 0.877026 0.767299 0.917352 1.293636 1.051894 0.422256
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.49823 285.6150 184.0593 17.96806 16.79489 16.00259 19.38504 16.92039 16.80304 19.30595 17.92329 22.07834 17.78472 22.65508 20.53990 20.03263 21.03870 20.60739 19.88560 17.24565 289.5090
Std. Error
669.0683 305.7550 13.91194 14.29623 14.06785 0.790449
0.1248 0.1420 0.0000 0.9191 0.5020 0.7232 0.9275 0.2473 0.5709 0.8962 0.4553 0.7723 0.8135 0.8640 0.2943 0.3819 0.4441 0.3604 0.1978 0.2945 0.6734
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELETREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:22 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-29.09574 -390.2151 1132.342 14.42167 26.68031 15.40485 8.452018 15.45102 -14.26068 8.497925 -32.41010 -6.754467 -9.218870 -23.00721 95.56785
0.451184 0.402245 236.3934 8773446. -1176.276 9.219307 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.179233 -1.516208 5.093004 0.676086 1.217281 0.688405 0.456600 0.724833 -0.650408 0.393926 -1.347447 -0.346415 -0.499583 -1.107775 0.387321
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.67345 257.3625 222.3328 21.33114 21.91796 22.37758 18.51079 21.31667 21.92576 21.57238 24.05297 19.49821 18.45312 20.76884 246.7407
Std. Error
669.0683 305.7550 13.85204 14.12653 13.96341 0.712210
0.2401 0.1315 0.0000 0.5000 0.2253 0.4922 0.6486 0.4696 0.5164 0.6942 0.1798 0.7295 0.6181 0.2697 0.6990
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELETREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:42 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-28.64360 -112.7889 1969.189 33.77898 10.29844 28.40451 17.80703 29.46467 28.75525 40.73933 2.804744 43.83177 84.14991 33.25011 51.90090 78.04748 -434.4182 0.526931 0.478098 355.4850 19587288 -1245.347 10.79050 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.987434 -0.330893 6.834303 1.046245 0.400427 1.072948 0.634491 1.094990 0.990542 1.347832 0.088245 1.675983 2.322871 0.978316 1.400776 2.205473 -1.186161
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
29.00812 340.8625 288.1331 32.28592 25.71864 26.47332 28.06507 26.90861 29.02982 30.22583 31.78356 26.15288 36.22668 33.98709 37.05154 35.38810 366.2388
Std. Error
1194.195 492.0701 14.67845 14.98954 14.80467 0.906756
0.3250 0.7412 0.0000 0.2971 0.6894 0.2850 0.5267 0.2752 0.3235 0.1797 0.9298 0.0958 0.0215 0.3294 0.1633 0.0289 0.2374
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELTNCEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-32.92068 -296.4011 2076.834 6.419618 28.28791 -1.497874 -2.020163 35.89733 24.81694 6.638285 24.93436 12.33801 -4.429290 8.982895 34.88568 27.16615 28.85005 30.60803 42.09401 36.28405 -356.6064
0.513241 0.448770 365.3369 20154134 -1247.800 7.960755 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.076331 -0.809578 7.462608 0.240990 1.111101 -0.062525 -0.066340 1.484553 0.919571 0.230696 0.951512 0.365963 -0.158229 0.249791 1.165121 0.953606 0.936948 1.036926 1.464263 1.370843 -0.836351
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
30.58602 366.1178 278.2987 26.63854 25.45936 23.95623 30.45145 24.18057 26.98752 28.77497 26.20499 33.71383 27.99288 35.96163 29.94169 28.48782 30.79153 29.51804 28.74758 26.46842 426.3837
Std. Error
1194.195 492.0701 14.75349 15.13778 14.90940 1.002384
0.2835 0.4195 0.0000 0.8099 0.2683 0.9502 0.9472 0.1397 0.3593 0.8179 0.3429 0.7149 0.8745 0.8031 0.2458 0.3418 0.3503 0.3014 0.1452 0.1725 0.4043
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELTNCEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:22 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-34.88406 -243.1407 1991.411 9.483923 29.18488 8.475131 5.514821 11.24076 -28.97582 3.761891 -59.14383 -16.05014 -18.92895 -50.28240 -324.7012 0.500151 0.455578 363.0736 20696126 -1250.082 11.22106 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.948280 -0.720465 5.796383 0.283788 0.881218 0.256907 0.204423 0.334675 -0.821657 0.108068 -1.448121 -0.493716 -0.665678 -1.340229 -0.821348
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
36.78665 337.4775 343.5609 33.41907 33.11878 32.98913 26.97749 33.58710 35.26508 34.81041 40.84179 32.50883 28.43561 37.51777 395.3273
Std. Error
1194.195 492.0701 14.71026 14.98475 14.82163 0.851331
0.3444 0.4723 0.0000 0.7769 0.3795 0.7976 0.8383 0.7383 0.4125 0.9141 0.1496 0.6222 0.5066 0.1821 0.4127
Prob.
Dependent Variable: ELTNCEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:42 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-58.28200 266.7671 1668.971 24.68471 12.58530 28.51840 15.25597 13.85921 22.33445 36.77775 -2.681424 20.08330 53.99360 10.70471 12.66615 29.67623 -563.7035
0.624287 0.585504 264.5797 10850378 -1194.548 16.09682 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.114014 1.473080 6.609123 0.926062 0.712386 1.487417 0.840999 0.802120 1.115859 1.767339 -0.113283 1.142702 2.035474 0.547927 0.727638 1.724080 -1.941525
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
18.71603 181.0948 252.5253 26.65556 17.66641 19.17311 18.14030 17.27823 20.01547 20.80968 23.67011 17.57527 26.52630 19.53675 17.40721 17.21279 290.3406
Std. Error
1048.621 410.9570 14.08777 14.39886 14.21398 1.197197
0.0022 0.1428 0.0000 0.3559 0.4773 0.1389 0.4016 0.4237 0.2662 0.0791 0.9100 0.2549 0.0435 0.5845 0.4679 0.0867 0.0540
Prob.
Dependent Variable: EQINVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-60.50291 188.6796 1748.153 11.21510 27.39949 -0.210615 -18.91572 13.46901 21.83658 -8.275028 4.383161 -2.428087 -5.360746 1.485168 19.67681 16.82689 18.92700 13.84415 31.05574 25.03608 -563.4470 0.621734 0.571632 268.9706 10924119 -1195.130 12.40949 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.822762 1.050243 7.767593 0.590620 1.478584 -0.011561 -0.795684 0.912648 1.132779 -0.407776 0.248571 -0.100801 -0.280541 0.063135 1.069634 0.987532 0.963993 0.757474 1.798630 1.507826 -2.087101
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
21.43394 179.6533 225.0573 18.98869 18.53090 18.21709 23.77292 14.75817 19.27700 20.29306 17.63344 24.08791 19.10862 23.52368 18.39583 17.03933 19.63397 18.27673 17.26633 16.60410 269.9663
Std. Error
1048.621 410.9570 14.14105 14.52534 14.29697 1.276778
0.0054 0.2953 0.0000 0.5557 0.1413 0.9908 0.4275 0.3629 0.2591 0.6840 0.8040 0.9198 0.7794 0.9497 0.2865 0.3250 0.3366 0.4499 0.0741 0.1337 0.0386
Prob.
Dependent Variable: EQINVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:23 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-72.84174 177.9982 1608.520 -29.13755 -7.239124 -21.37998 -16.74534 -10.19148 -24.83934 -4.957789 -52.87169 -25.91110 -22.48251 -50.85289 -377.8498
0.641583 0.609622 256.7668 10350883 -1190.495 20.07410 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.942473 1.172732 5.888573 -1.166254 -0.332495 -0.994943 -0.967169 -0.394378 -0.943043 -0.213349 -1.723198 -1.046547 -1.154914 -1.606250 -1.162922
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.75528 151.7807 273.1596 24.98389 21.77216 21.48865 17.31377 25.84190 26.33957 23.23798 30.68231 24.75866 19.46683 31.65938 324.9143
Std. Error
1048.621 410.9570 14.01738 14.29187 14.12875 1.111700
0.0037 0.2427 0.0000 0.2453 0.7400 0.3213 0.3349 0.6938 0.3471 0.8313 0.0868 0.2969 0.2499 0.1102 0.2466
Prob.
Dependent Variable: EQINVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:42 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-98.21682 412.5922 2029.579 37.55273 14.32303 24.43297 3.010565 -9.004086 9.823702 16.03253 -32.05401 -22.26300 12.38305 -44.87186 -46.70980 -17.26691 -290.4827 0.606586 0.565975 349.4979 18933057 -1242.425 14.93666 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -4.134071 1.794219 7.861379 1.139387 0.598206 0.989785 0.126514 -0.359884 0.340426 0.580794 -1.007627 -0.861419 0.329776 -1.494845 -1.630001 -0.718117 -0.910155
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
23.75789 229.9564 258.1708 32.95870 23.94333 24.68511 23.79632 25.01939 28.85711 27.60448 31.81139 25.84458 37.54992 30.01774 28.65631 24.04468 319.1575
Std. Error
1665.480 530.5022 14.64448 14.95557 14.77069 1.086162
0.0001 0.0747 0.0000 0.2563 0.5506 0.3238 0.8995 0.7194 0.7340 0.5622 0.3152 0.3903 0.7420 0.1370 0.1051 0.4738 0.3642
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FDPRDEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-100.9319 490.9577 2022.853 4.924521 16.19204 -18.44419 -40.23928 -0.110091 8.011832 -30.90361 -6.469230 -17.06234 -10.90283 -4.041587 0.841235 -2.662088 8.718383 -4.762564 16.01400 14.10611 -347.2220
0.604490 0.552104 355.0386 19033909 -1242.882 11.53927 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.915836 2.037973 8.031169 0.184071 0.635566 -0.763958 -1.264382 -0.005214 0.277962 -1.135282 -0.267317 -0.537193 -0.421821 -0.126322 0.032859 -0.111674 0.331031 -0.200366 0.682568 0.629166 -1.037261
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
25.77531 240.9049 251.8752 26.75335 25.47658 24.14295 31.82526 21.11546 28.82351 27.22108 24.20059 31.76207 25.84701 31.99426 25.60101 23.83798 26.33709 23.76930 23.46138 22.42035 334.7491
Std. Error
1665.480 530.5022 14.69630 15.08059 14.85222 1.088246
0.0001 0.0433 0.0000 0.8542 0.5260 0.4461 0.2080 0.9958 0.7814 0.2581 0.7896 0.5919 0.6738 0.8996 0.9738 0.9112 0.7411 0.8415 0.4959 0.5302 0.3013
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FDPRDEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:23 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-129.9086 393.0071 1813.152 -38.35148 -17.90828 -25.38364 -21.67615 -15.02508 -27.20839 -16.49192 -73.03608 -50.96706 -44.61298 -85.26776 52.14455 0.651629 0.620565 326.7805 16765320 -1231.968 20.97640 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -4.976894 2.262794 6.467527 -1.368236 -0.663935 -0.992340 -1.042279 -0.457486 -0.835185 -0.568948 -2.134761 -1.908058 -2.214610 -2.179184 0.142518
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
26.10234 173.6823 280.3470 28.02986 26.97294 25.57958 20.79688 32.84272 32.57769 28.98669 34.21276 26.71148 20.14485 39.12829 365.8797
Std. Error
1665.480 530.5022 14.49962 14.77412 14.61099 0.997827
0.0000 0.0250 0.0000 0.1732 0.5077 0.3226 0.2989 0.6480 0.4049 0.5702 0.0343 0.0582 0.0282 0.0308 0.8869
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FDPRDEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:42 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-69.13717 191.8768 2383.221 53.19926 28.02905 41.94428 16.93730 9.840439 21.98315 38.41461 -15.00035 18.19662 56.32822 -8.331610 -10.68375 21.31251 -741.5326
0.566650 0.521917 407.3920 25725073 -1268.789 12.66742 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.205273 0.595154 6.085797 1.382300 1.084596 1.512157 0.643157 0.377070 0.771086 1.267173 -0.433864 0.678864 1.444410 -0.267047 -0.357744 0.745591 -1.621952
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
31.35084 322.3986 391.6038 38.48605 25.84286 27.73804 26.33462 26.09711 28.50935 30.31520 34.57385 26.80453 38.99738 31.19903 29.86422 28.58472 457.1852
Std. Error
1433.702 589.1976 14.95103 15.26212 15.07725 1.012695
0.0289 0.5526 0.0000 0.1689 0.2798 0.1325 0.5211 0.7066 0.4418 0.2070 0.6650 0.4982 0.1506 0.7898 0.7210 0.4570 0.1068
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FINANEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-71.51975 150.3727 2472.686 6.974238 28.75169 -11.57498 -36.61915 10.58295 15.95795 -24.66566 -4.605050 -20.10144 -24.59416 -9.997552 16.78954 11.68914 23.25116 15.59363 43.89528 32.69399 -784.8173 0.568890 0.511790 411.6845 25592106 -1268.343 9.962938 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.015641 0.478558 7.227447 0.239633 0.999385 -0.398618 -1.014601 0.423001 0.532180 -0.784430 -0.155458 -0.552387 -0.763725 -0.268238 0.558494 0.390640 0.715121 0.507913 1.498351 1.149664 -1.806802
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
35.48238 314.2205 342.1243 29.10382 28.76939 29.03773 36.09217 25.01871 29.98599 31.44406 29.62242 36.39014 32.20289 37.27121 30.06217 29.92306 32.51360 30.70141 29.29573 28.43786 434.3681
Std. Error
1433.702 589.1976 14.99236 15.37665 15.14828 1.083040
0.0456 0.6329 0.0000 0.8109 0.3192 0.6907 0.3119 0.6729 0.5954 0.4340 0.8767 0.5815 0.4462 0.7889 0.5773 0.6966 0.4756 0.6123 0.1361 0.2521 0.0728
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FINANEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:23 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-97.87338 86.35181 2225.638 -53.95831 -35.12255 -45.60302 -37.80762 -24.31065 -47.84321 -16.65945 -82.52205 -45.11917 -38.31011 -77.59544 -394.9151
0.613773 0.579333 382.1469 22927686 -1258.888 17.82123 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.482047 0.324682 5.618722 -1.419758 -1.056127 -1.304347 -1.304068 -0.619321 -1.240180 -0.445632 -1.821266 -1.268384 -1.300504 -1.799006 -0.888093
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
39.43253 265.9584 396.1110 38.00529 33.25598 34.96232 28.99206 39.25373 38.57763 37.38389 45.31026 35.57218 29.45789 43.13239 444.6777
Std. Error
1433.702 589.1976 14.81266 15.08715 14.92402 0.955881
0.0141 0.7459 0.0000 0.1577 0.2925 0.1940 0.1941 0.5366 0.2168 0.6565 0.0705 0.2065 0.1953 0.0739 0.3758
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FINANEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:42 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
16.18248 -583.7610 3526.846 120.4474 74.74623 102.2931 52.00114 58.96343 70.69839 82.07387 -2.585592 56.72951 78.98292 -5.659696 -26.76156 40.36198 107.1174 0.388094 0.324929 789.9386 96720469 -1382.684 6.144171 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.216471 -0.824157 5.547127 1.628328 1.161266 1.639332 0.833471 1.005386 1.149891 1.339913 -0.039118 0.963752 1.072786 -0.080523 -0.370338 0.586646 0.125366
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
74.75574 708.3127 635.7968 73.96998 64.36617 62.39925 62.39105 58.64756 61.48268 61.25315 66.09777 58.86320 73.62413 70.28686 72.26248 68.80129 854.4366
Std. Error
2921.545 961.4322 16.27539 16.58648 16.40161 0.638254
0.8289 0.4111 0.0000 0.1055 0.2473 0.1032 0.4059 0.3163 0.2520 0.1822 0.9688 0.3367 0.2850 0.9359 0.7116 0.5583 0.9004
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FLINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
19.63070 -604.2685 3740.444 -10.86796 32.04313 -39.07560 -76.18014 -2.405944 -18.76990 -60.39037 -20.33865 -49.28881 -69.78164 -31.25908 3.193073 -7.322145 26.51065 16.68862 73.89757 52.06586 -110.4010
0.387594 0.306480 800.6598 96799482 -1382.754 4.778418 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.247137 -0.851493 6.554936 -0.177423 0.553688 -0.674756 -1.145183 -0.045077 -0.324541 -0.964427 -0.325918 -0.714712 -1.084768 -0.427288 0.047955 -0.107174 0.365250 0.252593 1.110020 0.824150 -0.125432
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
79.43245 709.6573 570.6302 61.25447 57.87220 57.91068 66.52224 53.37374 57.83522 62.61787 62.40427 68.96318 64.32864 73.15698 66.58482 68.32019 72.58211 66.06922 66.57320 63.17520 880.1656
Std. Error
2921.545 961.4322 16.32272 16.70701 16.47864 0.691546
0.8051 0.3958 0.0000 0.8594 0.5806 0.5009 0.2539 0.9641 0.7460 0.3364 0.7449 0.4759 0.2798 0.6698 0.9618 0.9148 0.7154 0.8009 0.2688 0.4112 0.9003
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FLINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:23 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-16.60518 -765.0864 3436.893 -73.35270 -62.42672 -53.55201 -48.30748 -1.085547 -68.32404 -9.142630 -116.5572 -59.67946 -55.89276 -103.6955 462.3810 0.398329 0.344677 778.2990 95102636 -1381.233 7.424280 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.185868 -1.205287 4.811799 -1.011286 -0.927839 -0.744054 -0.745814 -0.013546 -0.890463 -0.116879 -1.457951 -0.916317 -0.942067 -1.403984 0.553166
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
89.33875 634.7754 714.2637 72.53409 67.28184 71.97331 64.77150 80.13697 76.72871 78.22309 79.94588 65.12968 59.32990 73.85806 835.8807
Std. Error
2921.545 961.4322 16.23527 16.50976 16.34664 0.588215
0.8528 0.2299 0.0000 0.3134 0.3549 0.4580 0.4569 0.9892 0.3746 0.9071 0.1469 0.3609 0.3476 0.1623 0.5809
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FLINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:42 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-21.25916 289.7060 1983.650 29.20019 13.13093 27.13558 12.21245 10.04851 16.34618 31.51881 -12.95582 15.34309 57.31151 5.249614 9.501631 32.47437 -1212.290
0.583962 0.541017 310.1505 14909968 -1221.881 13.59765 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.041517 1.232967 6.861657 0.981628 0.681105 1.239514 0.618297 0.514773 0.737973 1.352561 -0.469642 0.771041 1.848590 0.222497 0.433623 1.597125 -3.738719
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.41173 234.9666 289.0920 29.74670 19.27885 21.89212 19.75177 19.52029 22.15012 23.30305 27.58656 19.89918 31.00283 23.59408 21.91220 20.33302 324.2527
Std. Error
871.6085 457.7981 14.40560 14.71669 14.53181 1.231376
0.2993 0.2195 0.0000 0.3278 0.4968 0.2170 0.5373 0.6074 0.4616 0.1782 0.6393 0.4419 0.0664 0.8242 0.6652 0.1123 0.0003
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FNSVSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-21.30634 216.4227 2070.259 18.19361 37.67578 -0.813510 -22.29453 15.63247 22.49685 -15.79945 1.216903 -9.755610 -11.60280 -1.939421 18.11315 13.35067 14.76702 11.04007 28.10744 23.72921 -1231.670 0.583515 0.528352 314.4004 14925992 -1221.974 10.57791 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.931566 0.942230 7.977843 0.830518 1.799179 -0.038137 -0.787524 0.892800 0.969700 -0.670527 0.056970 -0.343867 -0.499183 -0.068732 0.857608 0.673892 0.640921 0.514732 1.431063 1.279648 -3.990365
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
22.87153 229.6919 259.5011 21.90634 20.94054 21.33126 28.30967 17.50947 23.19981 23.56274 21.36046 28.37026 23.24357 28.21703 21.12054 19.81129 23.04029 21.44820 19.64095 18.54355 308.6611
Std. Error
871.6085 457.7981 14.45318 14.83747 14.60910 1.316408
0.3530 0.3476 0.0000 0.4076 0.0740 0.9696 0.4322 0.3734 0.3337 0.5035 0.9546 0.7314 0.6184 0.9453 0.3925 0.5014 0.5225 0.6075 0.1545 0.2026 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FNSVSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:23 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-43.59005 188.0805 1861.111 -36.01725 -15.77343 -28.16868 -23.13218 -13.40410 -36.38798 -13.46254 -70.83153 -36.72382 -34.29223 -67.73807 -925.4007
0.628564 0.595443 291.1817 13311521 -1212.129 18.97744 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.622924 1.052636 6.158103 -1.258238 -0.624765 -1.091874 -1.109940 -0.445262 -1.199402 -0.500679 -2.009149 -1.307455 -1.547745 -1.899651 -2.604376
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
26.85896 178.6756 302.2215 28.62515 25.24700 25.79847 20.84093 30.10388 30.33843 26.88855 35.25450 28.08803 22.15625 35.65816 355.3254
Std. Error
871.6085 457.7981 14.26894 14.54343 14.38031 1.173694
0.1066 0.2941 0.0000 0.2102 0.5330 0.2766 0.2687 0.6567 0.2322 0.6173 0.0462 0.1930 0.1237 0.0593 0.0101
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FNSVSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:42 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-96.39975 434.3768 2142.369 39.35831 15.30901 26.36844 4.175636 -8.625324 11.62616 19.15878 -31.80752 -21.19199 15.82581 -44.28552 -46.18241 -15.57873 -408.9264 0.603353 0.562409 366.1133 20776038 -1250.414 14.73600 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.894320 1.801775 7.826747 1.139042 0.615823 1.030028 0.169852 -0.333514 0.385911 0.665386 -0.952639 -0.788278 0.403383 -1.427340 -1.565231 -0.624511 -1.212404
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.75394 241.0827 273.7240 34.55388 24.85942 25.59973 24.58398 25.86194 30.12655 28.79346 33.38885 26.88390 39.23267 31.02662 29.50516 24.94549 337.2856
Std. Error
1682.738 553.4538 14.73737 15.04846 14.86358 1.096157
0.0001 0.0735 0.0000 0.2564 0.5389 0.3046 0.8653 0.7392 0.7001 0.5068 0.3423 0.4317 0.6872 0.1555 0.1196 0.5332 0.2272
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FOODSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:51 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-98.83990 508.1687 2142.177 6.068109 19.02458 -18.00291 -41.34866 0.305878 8.926820 -31.90484 -6.573740 -17.71080 -11.20384 -4.324221 1.395091 -2.427717 9.257319 -4.799667 17.06988 14.91280 -469.2050
0.601666 0.548906 371.7192 20864444 -1250.779 11.40392 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.659599 2.022286 8.013303 0.216651 0.712801 -0.717801 -1.246403 0.014020 0.299140 -1.125001 -0.260998 -0.532185 -0.415463 -0.128529 0.052532 -0.098506 0.337215 -0.193979 0.700087 0.633943 -1.330518
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.00839 251.2842 267.3276 28.00864 26.68990 25.08063 33.17439 21.81793 29.84161 28.35983 25.18693 33.27938 26.96715 33.64397 26.55673 24.64545 27.45230 24.74326 24.38252 23.52386 352.6483
Std. Error
1682.738 553.4538 14.78813 15.17241 14.94404 1.103987
0.0003 0.0449 0.0000 0.8288 0.4771 0.4740 0.2145 0.9888 0.7652 0.2624 0.7944 0.5954 0.6784 0.8979 0.9582 0.9217 0.7364 0.8465 0.4850 0.5271 0.1854
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FOODSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:23 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000) -129.1115 408.9323 1922.052 -39.69889 -18.35895 -26.87403 -22.84975 -15.61108 -28.02705 -16.36602 -76.72647 -52.94175 -46.25746 -89.46632 -53.92468 0.649252 0.617975 342.0796 18371893 -1239.837 20.75822 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable -6.214976 2.364691 10.34155 -1.407952 -0.651588 -0.965007 -0.813610 -0.549489 -0.989734 -0.568948 -2.711562 -1.842636 -1.602819 -3.134264 -0.217306
t-Statistic
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.77426 172.9327 185.8573 28.19619 28.17569 27.84854 28.08440 28.41021 28.31775 28.76542 28.29604 28.73153 28.86005 28.54460 248.1505
Std. Error
Dependent Variable: FOODSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:42 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments
1682.738 553.4538 14.59113 14.86562 14.70250 1.011785
0.0000 0.0193 0.0000 0.1611 0.5156 0.3360 0.4171 0.5835 0.3238 0.5702 0.0074 0.0673 0.1110 0.0021 0.8283
Prob.
Coefficient
-51.09452 315.1678 774.0367 13.98003 7.257708 5.564496 3.986957 0.392062 5.891377 9.224118 -9.715070 -2.833906 16.86669 -6.777523 -4.290552 2.285316 -55.80077
0.617814 0.578363 145.9350 3301037. -1092.211 15.66013 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -4.552784 3.560120 5.489469 0.874465 0.579017 0.422656 0.346512 0.035003 0.636657 0.885086 -0.798467 -0.285427 1.331371 -0.583843 -0.371681 0.198496 -0.327583
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.22270 88.52731 141.0039 15.98695 12.53454 13.16554 11.50599 11.20080 9.253610 10.42172 12.16715 9.928671 12.66866 11.60847 11.54365 11.51317 170.3408
Std. Error
790.8796 224.7450 12.89780 13.20889 13.02402 1.079958
0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.3832 0.5634 0.6731 0.7294 0.9721 0.5253 0.3775 0.4258 0.7757 0.1850 0.5602 0.7106 0.8429 0.7437
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FSTPAEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:51 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-51.25683 285.6632 806.1403 7.349114 18.25328 8.618989 -3.218608 13.60006 17.71945 -4.124636 3.060326 -3.359351 -3.819845 -0.813944 5.021550 4.689178 7.361183 1.963289 10.00357 10.17708 -58.59324 0.628300 0.579069 145.8128 3210467. -1089.819 12.76210 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -4.647325 2.987260 6.268368 0.721232 1.759156 0.803175 -0.265968 1.326835 1.634074 -0.444953 0.318637 -0.271908 -0.336134 -0.065728 0.500400 0.455725 0.671563 0.192328 1.071997 1.076119 -0.369753
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.02932 95.62714 128.6045 10.18967 10.37616 10.73114 12.10147 10.25000 10.84373 9.269814 9.604418 12.35474 11.36406 12.38358 10.03508 10.28949 10.96126 10.20800 9.331720 9.457208 158.4658
Std. Error
790.8796 224.7450 12.91650 13.30078 13.07241 1.131367
0.0000 0.0033 0.0000 0.4719 0.0806 0.4231 0.7906 0.1866 0.1043 0.6570 0.7504 0.7861 0.7372 0.9477 0.6175 0.6492 0.5029 0.8477 0.2854 0.2836 0.7121
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FSTPAEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:24 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-62.61883 290.5870 693.2690 -15.03206 -12.66554 -24.70007 -16.52206 -18.21780 -17.98635 -11.08613 -26.24980 -15.63320 -10.23908 -23.51787 85.15292
0.670251 0.640847 134.6883 2848127. -1079.520 22.79428 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -4.878197 4.372387 5.350935 -1.241714 -1.192646 -1.915452 -1.599766 -1.344985 -1.340696 -0.857693 -1.570735 -1.171235 -0.915395 -1.553744 0.477869
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.83647 66.45958 129.5603 12.10590 10.61970 12.89517 10.32780 13.54498 13.41568 12.92552 16.71179 13.34761 11.18542 15.13626 178.1930
Std. Error
790.8796 224.7450 12.72697 13.00146 12.83834 1.028376
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2162 0.2348 0.0573 0.1117 0.1806 0.1820 0.3924 0.1183 0.2433 0.3614 0.1223 0.6334
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FSTPAEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:43 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
69.63347 1066.817 1337.804 -26.00383 -21.45071 -31.29920 -32.06220 -65.51545 -57.71693 -27.23657 -71.86049 -65.03692 -22.02909 -82.79752 -54.96350 -57.59719 -1185.951 0.316929 0.246419 487.9577 36905925 -1299.827 4.494776 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 1.562466 2.654688 4.688615 -0.567123 -0.531550 -0.706511 -0.711012 -1.360061 -1.319692 -0.607947 -1.495311 -1.453525 -0.421682 -1.778901 -1.224497 -1.439050 -3.144066
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
44.56638 401.8614 285.3303 45.85215 40.35502 44.30111 45.09378 48.17097 43.73514 44.80091 48.05721 44.74429 52.24103 46.54421 44.88660 40.02446 377.2031
Std. Error
1455.445 562.1046 15.31194 15.62303 15.43816 0.513229
0.1202 0.0088 0.0000 0.5715 0.5958 0.4809 0.4781 0.1758 0.1889 0.5441 0.1369 0.1481 0.6738 0.0772 0.2226 0.1522 0.0020
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FURNSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:51 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
51.22127 1183.164 1165.109 12.38935 7.109755 -1.885581 -41.70289 -4.280881 18.26931 -25.28068 -6.560143 0.899622 9.874310 15.21298 14.97871 13.54151 18.89368 22.75861 41.17826 41.04544 -1039.675
0.288726 0.194518 504.4813 38429710 -1303.306 3.064760 0.000051
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 1.241293 2.797687 3.844793 0.288180 0.179401 -0.044940 -0.915006 -0.101939 0.396560 -0.606883 -0.160449 0.022131 0.272910 0.427013 0.403408 0.357719 0.463197 0.550488 1.052941 1.083992 -2.354975
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
41.26444 422.9080 303.0355 42.99167 39.63058 41.95752 45.57666 41.99455 46.06944 41.65660 40.88606 40.64901 36.18158 35.62652 37.13045 37.85515 40.78972 41.34258 39.10785 37.86507 441.4803
Std. Error
1455.445 562.1046 15.39891 15.78320 15.55483 0.461130
0.2164 0.0058 0.0002 0.7736 0.8579 0.9642 0.3616 0.9189 0.6923 0.5448 0.8727 0.9824 0.7853 0.6700 0.6872 0.7211 0.6439 0.5828 0.2941 0.2801 0.0198
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FURNSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:24 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
10.89790 1095.994 791.6986 -75.04132 -54.56858 -76.37196 -69.68096 -78.34727 -69.52176 -74.47219 -79.85342 -80.31196 -61.91312 -80.35477 -458.6967 0.425244 0.373992 444.7407 31053708 -1284.979 8.297116 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.299665 3.500011 3.735520 -2.350161 -1.714652 -2.388338 -2.279395 -2.070534 -1.822144 -2.381344 -2.253003 -2.444085 -1.914920 -1.969790 -1.032617
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
36.36696 313.1401 211.9380 31.93028 31.82487 31.97704 30.56994 37.83916 38.15382 31.27318 35.44310 32.85972 32.33197 40.79357 444.2080
Std. Error
1455.445 562.1046 15.11603 15.39052 15.22740 0.450574
0.7648 0.0006 0.0003 0.0200 0.0884 0.0181 0.0240 0.0400 0.0703 0.0184 0.0256 0.0156 0.0573 0.0506 0.3034
Prob.
Dependent Variable: FURNSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:43 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-178.2545 1496.102 4049.835 73.60733 48.69701 62.79631 50.40170 12.17304 48.26670 90.89577 -16.12259 19.72550 111.5940 -18.79350 -23.11632 11.20358 -2696.058
0.616666 0.577096 706.1454 77289415 -1363.397 15.58418 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -4.203558 3.165297 7.552756 1.069306 1.023014 1.229598 1.069946 0.241810 0.796351 1.599660 -0.238357 0.376178 1.519000 -0.330880 -0.486903 0.256050 -3.867362
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
42.40563 472.6579 536.2062 68.83654 47.60152 51.07060 47.10679 50.34138 60.60984 56.82194 67.64041 52.43656 73.46542 56.79856 47.47621 43.75537 697.1310
Std. Error
1926.827 1085.858 16.05112 16.36221 16.17734 1.160185
0.0000 0.0019 0.0000 0.2866 0.3079 0.2207 0.2863 0.8092 0.4270 0.1117 0.8119 0.7073 0.1308 0.7412 0.6270 0.7983 0.0002
Prob.
Dependent Variable: GASDSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:51 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-177.1766 1397.456 4231.666 52.11518 88.04117 0.742740 -57.16967 24.30228 57.26511 -26.84285 7.186859 -22.45069 4.089783 4.456919 28.91740 18.26952 23.86412 0.810208 47.23217 35.93456 -2794.427 0.614819 0.563801 717.1588 77661830 -1363.810 12.05116 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.674416 2.885930 7.695962 0.989715 1.607813 0.015449 -0.873278 0.620660 1.052656 -0.522360 0.157741 -0.340465 0.085494 0.070928 0.614930 0.460163 0.456089 0.018346 1.146182 0.862601 -3.971096
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
48.21897 484.2307 549.8554 52.65677 54.75835 48.07757 65.46560 39.15553 54.40057 51.38767 45.56126 65.94121 47.83689 62.83695 47.02548 39.70224 52.32337 44.16256 41.20827 41.65837 703.6916
Std. Error
1926.827 1085.858 16.10244 16.48673 16.25836 1.212405
0.0003 0.0045 0.0000 0.3239 0.1100 0.9877 0.3839 0.5358 0.2942 0.6022 0.8749 0.7340 0.9320 0.9435 0.5395 0.6461 0.6490 0.9854 0.2535 0.3897 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: GASDSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:24 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-223.1409 1344.666 3830.710 -64.00125 -0.568493 -40.66062 -21.83901 -15.64959 -35.26699 -21.31178 -139.9707 -91.11420 -63.99563 -155.1333 -2194.688
0.641557 0.609594 678.4708 72270652 -1357.623 20.07186 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -4.244312 3.507342 6.283843 -1.067791 -0.010917 -0.798283 -0.579945 -0.229701 -0.494761 -0.349949 -1.859436 -1.473627 -1.314645 -1.763208 -2.680501
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
52.57412 383.3861 609.6126 59.93801 52.07628 50.93511 37.65700 68.13014 71.28087 60.89968 75.27590 61.82990 48.67901 87.98357 818.7605
Std. Error
1926.827 1085.858 15.96073 16.23522 16.07210 1.098180
0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.2873 0.9913 0.4259 0.5628 0.8186 0.6215 0.7268 0.0648 0.1426 0.1905 0.0798 0.0081
Prob.
Dependent Variable: GASDSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:43 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-29.48614 745.1427 3088.019 52.56092 35.48697 60.43368 39.93216 22.49885 46.54816 73.44618 -6.655243 14.13620 80.59317 -15.21883 -18.08361 13.07306 -2085.654 0.566241 0.521466 518.2092 41623826 -1310.173 12.64635 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.817969 2.071604 7.690371 1.044622 1.030126 1.650324 1.227450 0.647669 1.128310 1.816105 -0.136040 0.379418 1.474102 -0.376980 -0.514731 0.410587 -4.147074
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
36.04799 359.6936 401.5436 50.31575 34.44915 36.61928 32.53261 34.73818 41.25477 40.44160 48.92114 37.25758 54.67271 40.37035 35.13215 31.83994 502.9217
Std. Error
1467.116 749.1157 15.43224 15.74333 15.55846 1.149744
0.4146 0.0400 0.0000 0.2978 0.3046 0.1009 0.2215 0.5182 0.2609 0.0713 0.8920 0.7049 0.1425 0.7067 0.6075 0.6819 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: GWMUTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:51 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-27.07780 708.8566 3221.986 26.25422 52.61124 -12.66329 -55.02058 7.408523 28.24924 -26.54889 1.323745 -15.66636 -9.309372 -3.415112 15.07176 6.750837 12.11995 -4.921421 28.87360 22.60574 -2201.419
0.557016 0.498342 530.5823 42509151 -1311.983 9.493487 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.642201 1.917467 7.987979 0.652357 1.400349 -0.362312 -1.120338 0.267262 0.707534 -0.683230 0.037604 -0.318692 -0.247780 -0.071218 0.416077 0.214245 0.313463 -0.141049 0.841574 0.666760 -4.228546
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
42.16403 369.6838 403.3544 40.24517 37.57008 34.95136 49.11072 27.72008 39.92635 38.85789 35.20231 49.15824 37.57117 47.95323 36.22349 31.50991 38.66471 34.89166 34.30903 33.90387 520.6089
Std. Error
1467.116 749.1157 15.49980 15.88409 15.65571 1.204243
0.5217 0.0571 0.0000 0.5152 0.1635 0.7176 0.2643 0.7896 0.4803 0.4955 0.9701 0.7504 0.8046 0.9433 0.6779 0.8306 0.7544 0.8880 0.4014 0.5059 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: GWMUTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:24 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-66.64828 615.6286 2910.748 -61.48353 -18.28383 -39.74388 -24.53881 -14.51777 -40.10503 -19.32851 -112.9965 -69.85392 -55.19388 -121.5388 -1671.126 0.605688 0.570526 490.9274 37838531 -1301.973 17.22583 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.550226 2.303473 6.325046 -1.422789 -0.443821 -1.077932 -0.815663 -0.292287 -0.768758 -0.446008 -2.109202 -1.663981 -1.723180 -1.930546 -2.875299
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
42.99262 267.2610 460.1939 43.21339 41.19645 36.87050 30.08451 49.66963 52.16860 43.33671 53.57312 41.97998 32.03025 62.95565 581.2005
Std. Error
1467.116 749.1157 15.31364 15.58813 15.42501 1.090307
0.1231 0.0226 0.0000 0.1568 0.6578 0.2827 0.4159 0.7705 0.4432 0.6562 0.0365 0.0981 0.0868 0.0553 0.0046
Prob.
Dependent Variable: GWMUTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:43 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
2.893244 886.0239 2876.593 5.650329 -4.189589 26.86970 16.24265 14.17244 27.05643 65.50754 -17.46276 18.91453 77.65521 -25.80012 -8.766846 16.29888 -1181.631
0.344192 0.276496 744.2119 85846967 -1372.428 5.084364 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.040735 1.830414 7.473012 0.076545 -0.064869 0.398026 0.247493 0.217329 0.420660 1.019544 -0.248363 0.311957 1.066227 -0.402461 -0.152716 0.308226 -1.925030
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
71.02528 484.0566 384.9308 73.81732 64.58534 67.50732 65.62872 65.21181 64.31904 64.25182 70.31137 60.63182 72.83177 64.10593 57.40623 52.87960 613.8249
Std. Error
2445.536 874.9359 16.15613 16.46722 16.28235 0.518174
0.9676 0.0691 0.0000 0.9391 0.9484 0.6912 0.8049 0.8282 0.6746 0.3095 0.8042 0.7555 0.2880 0.6879 0.8788 0.7583 0.0561
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HCEQSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:51 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-7.413364 781.6111 2938.754 42.89888 57.10266 18.23127 -25.40290 32.43394 46.30656 -20.30223 7.292177 -2.222783 12.18935 29.34292 41.26505 23.75118 41.27747 23.85075 61.27515 52.09474 -1106.484 0.358429 0.273453 745.7755 83983356 -1370.540 4.217989 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.090988 1.638581 6.869852 0.763780 1.048881 0.332785 -0.413522 0.679341 0.779691 -0.355203 0.126786 -0.034053 0.208624 0.451847 0.687266 0.415744 0.679070 0.399064 1.046833 0.894532 -1.701989
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
81.47664 477.0048 427.7754 56.16651 54.44152 54.78387 61.43057 47.74326 59.39089 57.15672 57.51556 65.27327 58.42738 64.93993 60.04232 57.12939 60.78528 59.76670 58.53381 58.23686 650.1121
Std. Error
2445.536 874.9359 16.18070 16.56498 16.33661 0.541429
0.9276 0.1034 0.0000 0.4462 0.2959 0.7398 0.6798 0.4980 0.4368 0.7229 0.8993 0.9729 0.8350 0.6520 0.4930 0.6782 0.4981 0.6904 0.2968 0.3725 0.0908
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HCEQSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:24 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-49.58166 745.9543 2521.158 -99.49887 -55.70612 -78.80959 -77.45263 -57.68590 -66.35407 -40.31924 -114.5487 -81.15921 -74.01896 -123.4512 -526.2832
0.418063 0.366170 696.5664 76177140 -1362.150 8.056326 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.696743 1.919223 5.614631 -1.650740 -0.899642 -1.386991 -1.485378 -0.884794 -1.052281 -0.731516 -1.825098 -1.543717 -1.568101 -1.846165 -0.791089
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
71.16210 388.6751 449.0335 60.27532 61.92029 56.82053 52.14338 65.19701 63.05739 55.11735 62.76302 52.57391 47.20293 66.86900 665.2643
Std. Error
2445.536 874.9359 16.01337 16.28786 16.12474 0.472382
0.4870 0.0568 0.0000 0.1008 0.3697 0.1674 0.1394 0.3776 0.2943 0.4656 0.0699 0.1247 0.1189 0.0668 0.4301
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HCEQSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:43 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-138.8559 325.5658 2274.305 37.63312 21.49726 36.29808 13.96949 6.567634 19.25567 36.50173 -16.29237 4.454614 47.32751 -11.62904 -10.90592 10.40026 -377.2969 0.684202 0.651603 346.0748 18564003 -1240.732 20.98875 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -5.487968 1.347103 6.730299 1.040735 0.854480 1.343607 0.552122 0.269555 0.719051 1.264852 -0.514932 0.178859 1.308867 -0.419623 -0.417726 0.456569 -0.988032
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
25.30187 241.6784 337.9203 36.16013 25.15829 27.01539 25.30143 24.36474 26.77926 28.85850 31.63986 24.90578 36.15915 27.71304 26.10780 22.77917 381.8669
Std. Error
1552.338 586.3178 14.62479 14.93588 14.75101 1.246746
0.0000 0.1799 0.0000 0.2996 0.3942 0.1810 0.5817 0.7879 0.4732 0.2078 0.6073 0.8583 0.1925 0.6753 0.6767 0.6486 0.3247
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HLTHCEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:52 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-141.1217 330.2118 2325.689 -1.759873 14.60120 -18.26609 -40.91301 2.183189 12.72468 -27.70297 -7.042733 -16.06355 -17.97513 -7.073084 13.21366 7.384707 15.10112 2.360171 30.34653 22.06053 -427.4282
0.687248 0.645824 348.9335 18384940 -1239.899 16.59054 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -5.061142 1.368488 7.886271 -0.069001 0.624041 -0.780662 -1.325652 0.117714 0.510497 -1.097840 -0.308272 -0.518763 -0.738206 -0.240759 0.563430 0.338333 0.601882 0.101023 1.320102 1.003337 -1.196846
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.88337 241.2968 294.9035 25.50487 23.39783 23.39821 30.86256 18.54653 24.92609 25.23406 22.84587 30.96511 24.34975 29.37825 23.45220 21.82677 25.08985 23.36282 22.98802 21.98715 357.1288
Std. Error
1552.338 586.3178 14.66161 15.04590 14.81753 1.311946
0.0000 0.1732 0.0000 0.9451 0.5335 0.4362 0.1870 0.9065 0.6104 0.2740 0.7583 0.6047 0.4615 0.8101 0.5740 0.7356 0.5482 0.9197 0.1888 0.3173 0.2332
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HLTHCEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:24 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-158.6509 252.5880 2177.119 -41.31740 -11.89963 -28.66826 -19.30220 -12.71466 -27.34405 -2.334408 -66.28766 -29.76133 -26.54262 -63.79577 -149.2080 0.705198 0.678910 332.2360 17329776 -1234.815 26.82575 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -4.850499 1.255769 6.108403 -1.291004 -0.413387 -1.052244 -0.879377 -0.373273 -0.772557 -0.073988 -1.611544 -0.917556 -1.022207 -1.517588 -0.361144
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
32.70815 201.1421 356.4138 32.00407 28.78571 27.24488 21.94986 34.06261 35.39422 31.55127 41.13302 32.43545 25.96600 42.03761 413.1535
Std. Error
1552.338 586.3178 14.53274 14.80723 14.64411 1.164027
0.0000 0.2111 0.0000 0.1986 0.6799 0.2943 0.3805 0.7094 0.4409 0.9411 0.1091 0.3603 0.3083 0.1311 0.7185
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HLTHCEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:43 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-33.61085 242.9751 1375.812 36.21415 21.89023 30.34234 16.54479 9.808218 14.52307 22.71188 -10.22131 4.428307 31.18904 -9.924645 -9.067944 11.29137 -654.0611
0.569639 0.525214 236.1723 8645489. -1175.012 12.82266 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.174396 1.367970 6.847019 1.625452 1.503133 1.873063 1.145628 0.629615 0.847560 1.341053 -0.495337 0.293938 1.398977 -0.560691 -0.579060 0.698585 -2.625302
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
15.45756 177.6172 200.9359 22.27944 14.56307 16.19932 14.44168 15.57813 17.13516 16.93586 20.63508 15.06544 22.29417 17.70075 15.65978 16.16320 249.1375
Std. Error
758.7174 342.7521 13.86061 14.17169 13.98682 1.104344
0.0312 0.1733 0.0000 0.1061 0.1348 0.0629 0.2537 0.5299 0.3980 0.1819 0.6211 0.7692 0.1638 0.5758 0.5634 0.4859 0.0095
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HOTELEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:52 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-32.26321 216.3943 1447.120 10.50127 26.15820 1.496108 -19.65182 10.02615 14.70462 -14.61071 -0.250680 -7.641696 -10.93223 -6.436682 9.774934 3.155388 5.649327 1.745144 16.35620 13.30960 -707.1411 0.561451 0.503365 241.5454 8809974. -1176.633 9.665863 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.806909 1.210265 7.716472 0.629735 1.563541 0.088743 -0.918043 0.650809 0.773689 -0.812067 -0.013868 -0.339521 -0.569428 -0.301959 0.578196 0.190505 0.299226 0.105865 1.033623 0.881157 -2.864122
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
17.85547 178.7991 187.5365 16.67571 16.73010 16.85884 21.40621 15.40567 19.00585 17.99201 18.07666 22.50728 19.19863 21.31638 16.90592 16.56326 18.87979 16.48465 15.82414 15.10468 246.8963
Std. Error
758.7174 342.7521 13.92596 14.31025 14.08188 1.159281
0.0728 0.2281 0.0000 0.5298 0.1200 0.9294 0.3601 0.5162 0.4403 0.4180 0.9890 0.7347 0.5699 0.7631 0.5640 0.8492 0.7652 0.9158 0.3030 0.3796 0.0048
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HOTELEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:25 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-55.70148 181.1592 1245.529 -26.47459 -17.94781 -26.52160 -26.76105 -18.26523 -33.78549 -19.43478 -55.03903 -36.50213 -32.51212 -54.11637 -396.0209
0.634782 0.602214 216.1746 7336841. -1160.897 19.49142 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.901930 1.352186 6.347152 -1.243831 -0.991233 -1.367670 -1.617340 -0.806790 -1.474549 -0.918846 -2.089191 -1.804447 -1.996395 -2.060449 -1.714237
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
19.19464 133.9750 196.2342 21.28472 18.10655 19.39182 16.54634 22.63940 22.91242 21.15130 26.34466 20.22898 16.28542 26.26436 231.0187
Std. Error
758.7174 342.7521 13.67322 13.94771 13.78459 1.058811
0.0042 0.1783 0.0000 0.2154 0.3231 0.1734 0.1078 0.4210 0.1423 0.3596 0.0383 0.0731 0.0476 0.0410 0.0885
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HOTELEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:43 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-0.364452 1400.704 4448.659 60.21335 34.48530 61.14837 41.65808 19.05248 38.29700 83.77942 -21.11309 17.71443 126.1032 -1.657075 6.600834 42.38267 -4168.814 0.576420 0.532695 724.4162 81340723 -1367.790 13.18301 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.008071 2.618367 7.359888 0.827147 0.703813 1.134520 0.906776 0.382762 0.739866 1.554941 -0.307009 0.361266 1.726248 -0.029304 0.134507 0.887541 -5.806070
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
45.15661 534.9532 604.4466 72.79644 48.99781 53.89801 45.94086 49.77637 51.76210 53.87947 68.77027 49.03424 73.05049 56.54685 49.07435 47.75290 718.0096
Std. Error
1446.112 1059.712 16.10221 16.41330 16.22843 1.258998
0.9936 0.0097 0.0000 0.4094 0.4826 0.2583 0.3659 0.7024 0.4605 0.1220 0.7592 0.7184 0.0863 0.9767 0.8932 0.3762 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HVYCNEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:52 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
5.571812 1241.417 4675.994 57.37764 100.9322 20.14811 -49.44214 42.45576 73.37893 -28.78971 8.498674 -13.00370 -14.23787 -8.403544 35.15435 20.07720 14.67660 5.139002 42.34907 34.66393 -4273.015
0.579104 0.523356 731.6189 80825192 -1367.244 10.38793 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.112989 2.318351 8.262303 1.095268 2.008129 0.391374 -0.738203 0.969515 1.287430 -0.563850 0.165908 -0.189781 -0.266492 -0.130247 0.769874 0.459279 0.282875 0.110860 1.005273 0.865861 -6.307508
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
49.31307 535.4742 565.9432 52.38685 50.26180 51.48043 66.97638 43.79071 56.99645 51.05918 51.22529 68.51957 53.42702 64.51986 45.66247 43.71457 51.88361 46.35596 42.12694 40.03406 677.4490
Std. Error
1446.112 1059.712 16.14237 16.52666 16.29828 1.338702
0.9102 0.0218 0.0000 0.2751 0.0464 0.6961 0.4615 0.3338 0.1999 0.5737 0.8685 0.8497 0.7902 0.8965 0.4426 0.6467 0.7777 0.9119 0.3164 0.3879 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HVYCNEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:25 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-68.13661 1175.744 4037.915 -100.3981 -52.06204 -99.60756 -77.20059 -65.54785 -96.57072 -62.26652 -176.4390 -110.9329 -91.73418 -175.7767 -3333.414 0.655053 0.624293 649.5500 66240683 -1350.130 21.29586 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.298557 3.299543 6.811618 -1.644780 -1.015472 -1.872677 -1.907819 -0.991737 -1.408566 -1.054750 -2.204146 -1.783815 -1.921063 -2.090723 -4.281963
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
52.47102 356.3352 592.7981 61.04042 51.26883 53.18993 40.46537 66.09402 68.55962 59.03438 80.04870 62.18855 47.75178 84.07458 778.4779
Std. Error
1446.112 1059.712 15.87361 16.14810 15.98497 1.252220
0.1960 0.0012 0.0000 0.1020 0.3114 0.0630 0.0582 0.3229 0.1609 0.2932 0.0290 0.0764 0.0565 0.0382 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: HVYCNEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:43 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
32.93316 481.1693 1351.112 16.01569 8.777170 13.69870 6.926306 -3.293631 6.894184 18.50976 -14.37296 -3.359294 32.15039 -10.08482 -7.159536 1.575289 -1380.200
0.531060 0.482653 234.9499 8556229. -1174.120 10.97079 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 2.361097 2.791060 8.663261 0.693318 0.554056 0.810750 0.488961 -0.201428 0.376058 1.050552 -0.636716 -0.206056 1.295026 -0.525972 -0.411452 0.099372 -6.711078
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
13.94824 172.3966 155.9588 23.10006 15.84168 16.89633 14.16535 16.35141 18.33275 17.61908 22.57357 16.30285 24.82606 19.17368 17.40065 15.85251 205.6599
Std. Error
516.2305 326.6513 13.85023 14.16132 13.97644 1.224861
0.0195 0.0059 0.0000 0.4891 0.5803 0.4188 0.6256 0.8406 0.7074 0.2951 0.5252 0.8370 0.1972 0.5997 0.6813 0.9210 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: IMACHEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:52 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
34.63308 449.5189 1401.858 20.64666 34.08255 9.553895 -15.65549 13.52282 23.50569 -8.017591 3.847442 -4.691395 -1.988575 0.646175 6.542244 0.341488 1.686477 -2.528412 12.00301 11.56895 -1407.506 0.542430 0.481825 235.1379 8348767. -1172.009 8.950216 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic 2.360091 2.523120 8.798742 1.148448 2.092381 0.593201 -0.684628 0.992783 1.225650 -0.475477 0.239596 -0.209496 -0.120633 0.031049 0.403953 0.023743 0.091047 -0.159797 0.820062 0.819817 -6.592301
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
14.67447 178.1600 159.3248 17.97788 16.28888 16.10565 22.86716 13.62112 19.17814 16.86222 16.05806 22.39377 16.48455 20.81125 16.19557 14.38262 18.52311 15.82268 14.63672 14.11162 213.5076
Std. Error
516.2305 326.6513 13.87219 14.25648 14.02811 1.298294
0.0195 0.0127 0.0000 0.2526 0.0381 0.5539 0.4946 0.3224 0.2222 0.6351 0.8110 0.8343 0.9041 0.9753 0.6868 0.9811 0.9276 0.8733 0.4135 0.4136 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: IMACHEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:25 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
10.42509 429.7052 1201.226 -28.54793 -14.78047 -29.75207 -23.47680 -19.76891 -25.21730 -16.86456 -52.29702 -37.47173 -28.67933 -60.59236 -1108.510
0.615799 0.581539 211.3061 7010091. -1156.979 17.97429 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.693719 3.552000 6.926783 -1.530835 -0.860360 -1.939706 -2.055508 -0.950500 -1.098377 -0.944617 -2.322925 -2.105715 -2.147892 -2.142583 -4.418765
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
15.02783 120.9756 173.4176 18.64860 17.17940 15.33844 11.42141 20.79844 22.95870 17.85333 22.51344 17.79525 13.35231 28.28005 250.8641
Std. Error
516.2305 326.6513 13.62766 13.90215 13.73903 1.201784
0.4889 0.0005 0.0000 0.1278 0.3909 0.0542 0.0415 0.3433 0.2737 0.3463 0.0215 0.0368 0.0333 0.0337 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: IMACHEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:43 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
53.43613 999.9077 2966.190 40.84697 30.39930 44.98981 32.23241 5.511195 26.42099 49.76851 -21.89295 3.920247 78.54701 -14.42518 -9.761171 10.23847 -2997.496 0.539895 0.492401 510.3404 40369336 -1307.541 11.36750 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 1.746753 2.755123 8.699597 0.816906 0.901720 1.228048 1.040178 0.156097 0.663053 1.322512 -0.454256 0.116718 1.492486 -0.357424 -0.279287 0.314680 -6.695056
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
30.59170 362.9267 340.9572 50.00206 33.71258 36.63521 30.98739 35.30631 39.84745 37.63180 48.19522 33.58729 52.62829 40.35873 34.95028 32.53616 447.7178
Std. Error
1029.247 716.3075 15.40164 15.71273 15.52786 1.224353
0.0827 0.0066 0.0000 0.4152 0.3686 0.2213 0.2999 0.8762 0.5083 0.1879 0.6503 0.9072 0.1376 0.7213 0.7804 0.7534 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDENEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:52 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
57.91817 911.0063 3107.539 44.63969 73.13558 19.92734 -33.53961 28.45364 52.80419 -16.55626 9.330138 -4.150509 -3.040494 2.675787 15.78191 1.526938 5.511356 -3.866025 27.05364 24.04239 -3074.340
0.545956 0.485817 513.6392 39837608 -1306.401 9.078336 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 1.696735 2.488518 8.807148 1.143323 2.063293 0.569402 -0.686277 0.965532 1.259322 -0.444609 0.264923 -0.084417 -0.083330 0.057912 0.447425 0.048562 0.136770 -0.111348 0.827196 0.751684 -6.641991
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
34.13508 366.0839 352.8428 39.04382 35.44605 34.99697 48.87184 29.46940 41.93066 37.23778 35.21833 49.16690 36.48732 46.20400 35.27274 31.44324 40.29660 34.72008 32.70524 31.98471 462.8642
Std. Error
1029.247 716.3075 15.43489 15.81918 15.59081 1.301163
0.0918 0.0139 0.0000 0.2547 0.0408 0.5699 0.4936 0.3358 0.2099 0.6572 0.7914 0.9328 0.9337 0.9539 0.6552 0.9613 0.8914 0.9115 0.4094 0.4534 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDENEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:25 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
4.891560 870.5964 2665.960 -60.44337 -27.55810 -59.47940 -46.87046 -42.36798 -59.28052 -42.81770 -118.8154 -85.09570 -64.10093 -129.0611 -2420.590 0.619156 0.585195 461.3405 33415101 -1291.281 18.23155 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.145662 3.573368 7.039992 -1.479786 -0.737966 -1.717725 -1.800354 -0.920085 -1.185652 -1.091522 -2.347515 -2.131933 -2.170652 -2.084852 -4.576846
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
33.58163 243.6347 378.6879 40.84602 37.34332 34.62684 26.03403 46.04792 49.99826 39.22752 50.61326 39.91481 29.53072 61.90420 528.8774
Std. Error
1029.247 716.3075 15.18932 15.46381 15.30069 1.202889
0.8844 0.0005 0.0000 0.1409 0.4616 0.0878 0.0737 0.3589 0.2376 0.2767 0.0201 0.0346 0.0315 0.0387 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDENEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:43 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
34.33802 432.1308 1230.575 12.61747 9.379163 14.85066 10.94567 2.807745 12.01397 23.01791 -7.810075 7.798869 34.10584 -2.829475 -1.069760 6.019818 -1409.889
0.527707 0.478954 216.7239 7280232. -1160.231 10.82413 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 2.697964 2.746802 8.143233 0.590420 0.666027 0.986224 0.846779 0.184304 0.686040 1.391547 -0.364337 0.496407 1.506767 -0.165038 -0.072260 0.423944 -7.224211
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.72738 157.3214 151.1163 21.37034 14.08226 15.05810 12.92624 15.23432 17.51207 16.54124 21.43638 15.71065 22.63511 17.14442 14.80439 14.19957 195.1617
Std. Error
326.0918 300.2401 13.68873 13.99982 13.81495 1.191176
0.0077 0.0067 0.0000 0.5558 0.5064 0.3256 0.3984 0.8540 0.4937 0.1661 0.7161 0.6203 0.1339 0.8691 0.9425 0.6722 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDMTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:52 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
36.82042 396.0133 1288.667 21.49387 32.61744 5.642516 -14.19122 10.08212 19.32419 -8.442205 3.604508 -2.091764 0.836737 5.075714 8.151870 0.196733 1.509175 -5.753987 7.235340 7.084238 -1445.048 0.536483 0.475090 217.5260 7144952. -1158.618 8.738505 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic 2.683151 2.500842 8.296354 1.288934 2.034577 0.391283 -0.693806 0.830519 1.171083 -0.531385 0.241675 -0.103483 0.057162 0.267847 0.575201 0.015531 0.092392 -0.414825 0.557088 0.572871 -7.250769
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
13.72283 158.3520 155.3293 16.67569 16.03156 14.42053 20.45417 12.13954 16.50112 15.88716 14.91470 20.21366 14.63788 18.95004 14.17222 12.66697 16.33450 13.87087 12.98779 12.36620 199.2959
Std. Error
326.0918 300.2401 13.71649 14.10077 13.87240 1.268061
0.0081 0.0135 0.0000 0.1994 0.0436 0.6961 0.4889 0.4076 0.2434 0.5959 0.8094 0.9177 0.9545 0.7892 0.5660 0.9876 0.9265 0.6789 0.5783 0.5676 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDMTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:25 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
15.20123 375.7341 1115.404 -24.23270 -8.530502 -23.67358 -18.11874 -16.49115 -22.62427 -14.18593 -48.00419 -31.42732 -28.26937 -55.02217 -1180.861
0.601087 0.565515 197.9046 6149099. -1145.709 16.89784 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 1.042757 3.512095 6.440520 -1.386029 -0.536658 -1.676585 -1.646159 -0.822014 -1.025819 -0.823587 -2.357711 -1.920459 -2.237767 -2.063070 -4.963583
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
14.57791 106.9829 173.1853 17.48355 15.89559 14.12012 11.00668 20.06188 22.05483 17.22458 20.36050 16.36448 12.63285 26.67004 237.9050
Std. Error
326.0918 300.2401 13.49662 13.77111 13.60799 1.152761
0.2987 0.0006 0.0000 0.1677 0.5923 0.0956 0.1017 0.4123 0.3066 0.4114 0.0196 0.0566 0.0266 0.0408 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDMTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:44 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-32.37019 370.1837 1073.060 16.33556 9.730519 12.07303 7.645972 -0.328147 6.967587 16.31256 -7.919021 0.922663 25.01550 -7.033701 -4.001996 4.067113 -766.4249 0.601602 0.560477 180.8728 5070820. -1129.128 14.62865 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.668306 3.025161 6.918388 0.903710 0.760433 0.894293 0.607828 -0.024876 0.485583 1.109459 -0.464996 0.071138 1.335143 -0.491527 -0.309476 0.336101 -4.109384
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.13136 122.3683 155.1026 18.07612 12.79603 13.50009 12.57917 13.19105 14.34891 14.70317 17.03029 12.97000 18.73619 14.30988 12.93151 12.10085 186.5060
Std. Error
493.1934 272.8240 13.32707 13.63816 13.45329 1.196201
0.0084 0.0029 0.0000 0.3676 0.4482 0.3726 0.5442 0.9802 0.6279 0.2690 0.6426 0.9434 0.1838 0.6237 0.7574 0.7372 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDTREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:52 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-33.66518 335.7521 1113.380 14.18187 23.73937 5.264031 -11.88912 10.13033 18.43356 -5.995819 3.227532 -1.644596 -0.217960 1.196561 11.49387 7.463040 9.650557 6.510364 16.38432 14.19766 -768.9741
0.613385 0.562178 180.5226 4920849. -1126.546 11.97847 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.584854 2.655787 7.982823 1.097413 1.890467 0.410837 -0.737886 0.970759 1.355122 -0.451172 0.265352 -0.101073 -0.017401 0.078672 0.968831 0.669779 0.754278 0.550045 1.566727 1.349904 -4.512967
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
13.02401 126.4228 139.4720 12.92300 12.55741 12.81296 16.11241 10.43548 13.60288 13.28944 12.16322 16.27137 12.52551 15.20940 11.86365 11.14254 12.79443 11.83605 10.45768 10.51753 170.3922
Std. Error
493.1934 272.8240 13.34356 13.72785 13.49948 1.264118
0.0107 0.0088 0.0000 0.2742 0.0606 0.6818 0.4617 0.3332 0.1774 0.6525 0.7911 0.9196 0.9861 0.9374 0.3342 0.5040 0.4519 0.5831 0.1193 0.1791 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDTREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:25 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-47.16302 329.8823 981.7886 -22.87660 -8.919869 -21.39244 -15.25416 -12.94006 -16.49331 -9.653197 -37.82741 -25.65406 -20.09028 -40.02971 -589.7838 0.655548 0.624832 167.1072 4384198. -1116.615 21.34259 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.354159 3.464797 6.313425 -1.484144 -0.664742 -1.627136 -1.478463 -0.770592 -0.991614 -0.675228 -1.987069 -1.629828 -1.649495 -1.939216 -2.776981
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
14.06106 95.20970 155.5081 15.41400 13.41854 13.14730 10.31758 16.79237 16.63279 14.29620 19.03679 15.74035 12.17966 20.64221 212.3831
Std. Error
493.1934 272.8240 13.15832 13.43281 13.26969 1.147343
0.0010 0.0007 0.0000 0.1398 0.5072 0.1057 0.1413 0.4421 0.3229 0.5005 0.0487 0.1051 0.1010 0.0543 0.0062
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDTREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:44 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-20.99364 374.1054 2169.561 31.49530 15.43729 30.40355 19.72614 14.54309 24.33012 41.30754 -8.528299 16.48057 66.35791 2.811804 13.79306 36.53270 -1237.567
0.577331 0.533700 346.9525 18658287 -1241.168 13.23231 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.891132 1.486263 7.612660 0.932066 0.710999 1.282098 0.938733 0.664623 0.983132 1.634987 -0.281228 0.794672 1.985753 0.109178 0.593036 1.591186 -3.485366
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
23.55839 251.7087 284.9939 33.79086 21.71213 23.71390 21.01358 21.88171 24.74756 25.26475 30.32526 20.73884 33.41700 25.75442 23.25840 22.95942 355.0751
Std. Error
1106.494 508.0863 14.62986 14.94095 14.75608 1.194916
0.3742 0.1392 0.0000 0.3528 0.4782 0.2017 0.3493 0.5073 0.3271 0.1041 0.7789 0.4280 0.0488 0.9132 0.5540 0.1136 0.0006
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDUSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:53 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-21.45529 271.0154 2271.704 18.99147 39.96919 5.082049 -20.05437 24.00088 30.74175 -7.739056 11.84926 -1.767689 -9.269553 -0.363604 19.18918 13.10028 16.16897 12.19043 34.33909 29.17372 -1242.982 0.574627 0.518286 352.6403 18777628 -1241.716 10.19914 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.780693 1.098100 8.414427 0.753106 1.662947 0.216033 -0.646477 1.179155 1.128530 -0.296315 0.488283 -0.053780 -0.342657 -0.010709 0.746791 0.552367 0.587649 0.482589 1.407650 1.207321 -3.513038
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.48239 246.8039 269.9773 25.21753 24.03516 23.52439 31.02103 20.35431 27.24053 26.11765 24.26722 32.86873 27.05199 33.95428 25.69552 23.71662 27.51466 25.26049 24.39463 24.16402 353.8196
Std. Error
1106.494 508.0863 14.68275 15.06703 14.83866 1.276294
0.4362 0.2739 0.0000 0.4526 0.0984 0.8293 0.5190 0.2402 0.2609 0.7674 0.6261 0.9572 0.7323 0.9915 0.4564 0.5815 0.5576 0.6301 0.1613 0.2292 0.0006
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDUSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:25 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-46.23794 263.2867 2032.196 -32.50271 -11.93381 -32.39452 -25.76661 -19.06035 -39.65522 -17.93640 -77.87843 -45.38599 -34.95955 -74.78285 -919.3512
0.617307 0.583181 328.0282 16893589 -1232.623 18.08930 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.531179 1.318561 6.526528 -1.053655 -0.437691 -1.139715 -1.174626 -0.578101 -1.165239 -0.577859 -1.943039 -1.472284 -1.439006 -1.816206 -2.424101
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
30.19760 199.6773 311.3748 30.84758 27.26537 28.42335 21.93600 32.97063 34.03183 31.03943 40.08074 30.82692 24.29424 41.17532 379.2545
Std. Error
1106.494 508.0863 14.50725 14.78174 14.61861 1.120095
0.1277 0.1892 0.0000 0.2937 0.6622 0.2561 0.2419 0.5640 0.2457 0.5642 0.0538 0.1429 0.1521 0.0712 0.0165
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INDUSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:44 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
109.5445 45.54946 696.9358 -0.401215 -3.410272 -3.492879 -23.09136 -28.57761 -23.14635 -20.79339 -24.74298 -19.66199 3.448672 -14.50523 -12.85994 2.669977 245.3629 0.193646 0.110410 353.1355 19329227 -1244.206 2.326455 0.004197
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 2.894468 0.204948 3.142195 -0.012032 -0.096768 -0.093364 -0.603926 -0.720800 -0.628172 -0.560845 -0.690048 -0.585734 0.092631 -0.424378 -0.401565 0.090798 0.723266
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
37.84614 222.2490 221.7990 33.34645 35.24185 37.41148 38.23544 39.64707 36.84714 37.07508 35.85692 33.56815 37.23021 34.17995 32.02457 29.40557 339.2432
Std. Error
1398.076 374.4090 14.66519 14.97628 14.79140 0.211765
0.0043 0.8379 0.0020 0.9904 0.9230 0.9257 0.5468 0.4721 0.5308 0.5757 0.4912 0.5589 0.9263 0.6719 0.6886 0.9278 0.4706
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INSUPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:53 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
97.60104 32.02293 638.8848 12.42452 12.25740 6.431001 -9.138867 9.079157 16.12358 -1.275828 9.792126 13.08278 14.08503 22.56967 15.61906 17.14286 25.51254 21.97052 38.97144 35.97218 367.9901
0.227326 0.124986 350.2305 18521871 -1240.537 2.221267 0.003524
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 2.414786 0.171863 3.046999 0.474442 0.452344 0.239297 -0.314325 0.329622 0.573153 -0.044425 0.333996 0.445401 0.484262 0.778940 0.530067 0.561082 0.810582 0.724920 1.317801 1.188226 1.104557
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
40.41809 186.3283 209.6767 26.18766 27.09750 26.87452 29.07462 27.54418 28.13137 28.71850 29.31808 29.37302 29.08555 28.97486 29.46619 30.55320 31.47435 30.30751 29.57309 30.27386 333.1564
Std. Error
1398.076 374.4090 14.66903 15.05332 14.82495 0.206029
0.0169 0.8638 0.0027 0.6359 0.6517 0.8112 0.7537 0.7421 0.5674 0.9646 0.7388 0.6567 0.6289 0.4372 0.5968 0.5756 0.4189 0.4696 0.1896 0.2366 0.2711
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INSUPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:26 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
82.80499 22.25566 453.2074 -43.43956 -40.10777 -41.69809 -57.44566 -38.47507 -39.64504 -36.43172 -38.38153 -33.63190 -29.48425 -36.32910 602.8517 0.292112 0.228988 328.7585 16968894 -1233.006 4.627599 0.000001
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic 2.323550 0.118127 2.141325 -1.630270 -1.488377 -1.501676 -2.146636 -1.357115 -1.479695 -1.289536 -1.396469 -1.276568 -1.091756 -1.320680 1.841179
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
35.63727 188.4043 211.6481 26.64563 26.94731 27.76770 26.76078 28.35063 26.79271 28.25180 27.48470 26.34556 27.00626 27.50788 327.4270
Std. Error
1398.076 374.4090 14.51169 14.78618 14.62306 0.183834
0.0214 0.9061 0.0338 0.1050 0.1387 0.1352 0.0334 0.1767 0.1410 0.1991 0.1645 0.2036 0.2766 0.1885 0.0675
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INSUPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:44 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-73.09424 251.3830 1879.462 28.04260 12.75968 31.70328 15.77041 15.19718 24.14785 39.79040 -4.312881 21.79521 59.06793 11.22063 13.82913 33.47496 -620.8169
0.632520 0.594586 295.3565 13521493 -1213.475 16.67445 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.507091 1.206521 6.511732 0.935478 0.634215 1.458541 0.753254 0.784197 1.064125 1.690766 -0.163748 1.108256 1.994823 0.516709 0.709388 1.727941 -1.893365
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.84184 208.3537 288.6271 29.97677 20.11885 21.73630 20.93639 19.37928 22.69269 23.53395 26.33851 19.66622 29.61061 21.71557 19.49444 19.37274 327.8907
Std. Error
1116.493 463.8710 14.30785 14.61894 14.43407 1.200341
0.0006 0.2295 0.0000 0.3510 0.5269 0.1467 0.4524 0.4341 0.2889 0.0929 0.8701 0.2695 0.0478 0.6061 0.4791 0.0860 0.0602
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INVNKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:54 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-75.96935 171.9744 1960.578 9.523285 27.71425 -2.973372 -22.77703 13.39771 22.10176 -9.893001 4.416102 -3.554406 -6.505121 1.422593 22.10280 18.83910 21.03084 15.21819 34.35061 27.43380 -619.1811 0.629973 0.580963 300.2778 13615179 -1214.069 12.85394 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.234452 0.831858 7.662302 0.451169 1.344226 -0.147175 -0.859064 0.813293 1.035989 -0.439232 0.227730 -0.133052 -0.305790 0.054313 1.088619 0.998837 0.964036 0.748579 1.792872 1.508054 -2.020994
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
23.48754 206.7353 255.8733 21.10802 20.61725 20.20292 26.51378 16.47341 21.33399 22.52343 19.39184 26.71440 21.27316 26.19243 20.30352 18.86103 21.81542 20.32944 19.15954 18.19152 306.3746
Std. Error
1116.493 463.8710 14.36126 14.74555 14.51718 1.278860
0.0015 0.4068 0.0000 0.6525 0.1809 0.8832 0.3917 0.4173 0.3019 0.6611 0.8202 0.8943 0.7602 0.9568 0.2781 0.3195 0.3366 0.4553 0.0750 0.1336 0.0450
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INVNKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:26 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-88.27855 154.9502 1819.359 -30.61110 -6.448461 -21.60941 -16.78173 -9.114019 -26.78210 -3.099977 -57.80400 -26.50268 -23.62159 -55.76877 -426.4777
0.646651 0.615142 287.7712 13001526 -1210.103 20.52286 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.150014 0.873509 5.809224 -1.084813 -0.262947 -0.892077 -0.858061 -0.314756 -0.903188 -0.117284 -1.664366 -0.946334 -1.064306 -1.571276 -1.164733
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
28.02481 177.3883 313.1845 28.21787 24.52376 24.22371 19.55774 28.95578 29.65286 26.43128 34.73033 28.00564 22.19435 35.49267 366.1591
Std. Error
1116.493 463.8710 14.24538 14.51987 14.35675 1.114120
0.0020 0.3837 0.0000 0.2797 0.7929 0.3737 0.3922 0.7534 0.3678 0.9068 0.0980 0.3454 0.2888 0.1181 0.2459
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INVNKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:44 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-23.60682 932.3699 4726.438 62.85388 30.80949 65.61511 43.72234 30.32274 55.01814 95.04903 -27.25849 31.88967 133.0454 9.098523 14.35145 67.14094 -3877.948 0.589639 0.547279 730.6804 82753547 -1369.271 13.91976 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.545104 1.747977 7.079905 0.900802 0.649222 1.250653 0.852433 0.607552 0.904684 1.563170 -0.385649 0.586894 1.708512 0.163818 0.288394 1.506708 -5.070900
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
43.30699 533.3993 667.5849 69.77546 47.45605 52.46467 51.29125 49.90969 60.81474 60.80532 70.68205 54.33633 77.87210 55.54050 49.76326 44.56136 764.7456
Std. Error
1436.421 1085.956 16.11943 16.43052 16.24565 1.285384
0.5865 0.0824 0.0000 0.3691 0.5172 0.2129 0.3953 0.5444 0.3670 0.1201 0.7003 0.5581 0.0895 0.8701 0.7734 0.1339 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INVSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:55 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-19.07646 834.7503 4920.996 30.66531 80.92220 -18.04997 -77.96237 14.33934 40.91593 -52.63334 -2.184439 -26.96596 -24.78836 -8.261325 35.24685 17.40166 22.52293 6.785152 41.55607 27.05851 -4007.573
0.583403 0.528224 745.8991 84011181 -1370.569 10.57301 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.409720 1.577013 7.685724 0.565692 1.542595 -0.383062 -1.130026 0.388607 0.753475 -0.917454 -0.046541 -0.390679 -0.495090 -0.126761 0.749630 0.455045 0.450329 0.152789 0.964349 0.660111 -5.214637
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
46.55973 529.3235 640.2775 54.20850 52.45850 47.12019 68.99164 36.89932 54.30296 57.36893 46.93566 69.02336 50.06837 65.17252 47.01902 38.24158 50.01444 44.40856 43.09237 40.99086 768.5239
Std. Error
1436.421 1085.956 16.18103 16.56532 16.33694 1.349294
0.6826 0.1169 0.0000 0.5724 0.1250 0.7022 0.2603 0.6981 0.4523 0.3604 0.9629 0.6966 0.6213 0.8993 0.4546 0.6497 0.6531 0.8788 0.3364 0.5102 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INVSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:26 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-60.58529 723.2385 4580.927 -60.56549 4.306508 -30.88717 -3.511432 15.07150 -44.68070 -3.875732 -153.7378 -78.64655 -64.80966 -149.2028 -3425.045 0.608408 0.573489 709.2145 78968670 -1365.245 17.42336 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.014842 1.770776 6.188334 -0.956082 0.075130 -0.570327 -0.079055 0.198847 -0.590494 -0.061058 -1.839033 -1.117785 -1.254254 -1.644580 -3.866624
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
59.69924 408.4303 740.2522 63.34762 57.32075 54.15691 44.41765 75.79437 75.66669 63.47662 83.59710 70.35931 51.67188 90.72397 885.7971
Std. Error
1436.421 1085.956 16.04936 16.32385 16.16073 1.216639
0.3117 0.0785 0.0000 0.3405 0.9402 0.5693 0.9371 0.8426 0.5557 0.9514 0.0678 0.2654 0.2116 0.1021 0.0002
Prob.
Dependent Variable: INVSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:44 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-200.2383 -2960.909 3011.862 301.2602 203.8343 248.0449 105.8605 145.9056 145.8057 108.3270 62.32618 109.4405 47.25838 -45.18808 -122.6450 -14.54875 5986.554
0.249311 0.171821 1604.579 3.99E+08 -1504.574 3.217316 0.000085
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.239293 -2.178069 3.035566 1.809776 1.231422 1.558509 0.695040 0.932253 0.954514 0.697608 0.387553 0.727398 0.290314 -0.259127 -0.681458 -0.083369 3.504025
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
161.5746 1359.420 992.1913 166.4627 165.5276 159.1553 152.3084 156.5085 152.7539 155.2835 160.8196 150.4549 162.7839 174.3855 179.9744 174.5107 1708.479
Std. Error
5054.082 1763.189 17.69272 18.00381 17.81893 0.269586
0.2171 0.0309 0.0028 0.0723 0.2200 0.1212 0.4881 0.3527 0.3413 0.4865 0.6989 0.4681 0.7720 0.7959 0.4966 0.9337 0.0006
Prob.
Dependent Variable: LFINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:56 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-181.8829 -2782.247 3396.933 -64.62635 -31.44023 -94.76441 -93.46817 -38.50348 -98.31891 -99.57274 -81.18734 -113.8818 -135.5541 -90.19890 -35.14773 -40.77450 -7.273190 -19.64881 65.54936 20.63481 5336.166 0.239672 0.138967 1636.096 4.04E+08 -1505.671 2.379931 0.001622
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.128781 -1.913536 3.716869 -0.518569 -0.242643 -0.748977 -0.692178 -0.297582 -0.806235 -0.768191 -0.622257 -0.895710 -1.097913 -0.689783 -0.260469 -0.280573 -0.048288 -0.142170 0.467599 0.160251 2.992362
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
161.1322 1453.982 913.9231 124.6244 129.5739 126.5252 135.0349 129.3877 121.9481 129.6198 130.4724 127.1413 123.4653 130.7642 134.9404 145.3258 150.6221 138.2067 140.1828 128.7654 1783.262
Std. Error
5054.082 1763.189 17.75199 18.13627 17.90790 0.258620
0.2608 0.0576 0.0003 0.6048 0.8086 0.4550 0.4899 0.7664 0.4214 0.4436 0.5347 0.3718 0.2740 0.4914 0.7949 0.7794 0.9616 0.8871 0.6407 0.8729 0.0032
Prob.
Dependent Variable: LFINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:26 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-233.8948 -3150.000 3098.799 -76.63052 -110.2183 -47.99264 -100.1943 1.247718 -111.2704 7.444114 -123.3508 -47.09127 -67.31211 -112.5389 6165.136
0.222433 0.153096 1622.617 4.13E+08 -1507.599 3.207993 0.000180
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.229683 -2.494500 2.507506 -0.567384 -0.793368 -0.337575 -0.711886 0.008066 -0.796693 0.049120 -0.936482 -0.387364 -0.553238 -1.010762 3.348996
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
190.2074 1262.778 1235.809 135.0594 138.9245 142.1687 140.7448 154.6942 139.6653 151.5506 131.7171 121.5687 121.6694 111.3407 1840.891
Std. Error
5054.082 1763.189 17.70464 17.97913 17.81601 0.238464
0.2207 0.0136 0.0132 0.5713 0.4288 0.7361 0.4776 0.9936 0.4268 0.9609 0.3505 0.6990 0.5809 0.3137 0.0010
Prob.
Dependent Variable: LFINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:44 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-8.707828 1222.800 3121.935 29.97451 19.49660 33.99026 29.17365 4.591455 22.28757 56.40843 -21.67105 6.848926 83.93874 -8.793608 -1.597507 17.16130 -3204.694 0.563088 0.517987 537.7858 44828105 -1316.551 12.48516 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.243621 3.055885 7.206476 0.551596 0.513559 0.850349 0.794667 0.114051 0.525919 1.276383 -0.405865 0.168303 1.469161 -0.201579 -0.040484 0.457463 -6.014563
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
35.74334 400.1458 433.2125 54.34147 37.96370 39.97215 36.71180 40.25794 42.37836 44.19396 53.39472 40.69414 57.13380 43.62367 39.46002 37.51404 532.8225
Std. Error
944.7804 774.6048 15.50640 15.81749 15.63262 1.209100
0.8078 0.0026 0.0000 0.5820 0.6083 0.3964 0.4280 0.9093 0.5997 0.2037 0.6854 0.8666 0.1438 0.8405 0.9678 0.6480 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MARINEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:56 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-11.13477 1110.357 3237.792 43.80907 69.13675 15.61714 -33.80007 29.23734 60.20937 -12.31090 15.59824 -2.628021 6.719182 11.73096 31.10293 21.83385 27.11739 13.34088 37.58816 30.58579 -3206.227
0.574453 0.518089 537.7291 43662036 -1314.284 10.19187 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.282496 2.663391 8.098481 1.109483 1.836124 0.418745 -0.702135 0.956847 1.476763 -0.316356 0.415913 -0.052315 0.178967 0.260902 0.911543 0.673492 0.709710 0.380345 1.180468 0.997442 -6.505112
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
39.41562 416.8961 399.8024 39.48604 37.65364 37.29508 48.13901 30.55590 40.77119 38.91474 37.50366 50.23497 37.54421 44.96312 34.12118 32.41887 38.20913 35.07576 31.84175 30.66422 492.8780
Std. Error
944.7804 774.6048 15.52656 15.91085 15.68247 1.274604
0.7779 0.0086 0.0000 0.2690 0.0683 0.6760 0.4837 0.3402 0.1418 0.7522 0.6781 0.9583 0.8582 0.7945 0.3635 0.5017 0.4790 0.7042 0.2397 0.3201 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MARINEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:26 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-56.88167 1081.993 2819.635 -76.66638 -29.23016 -62.53527 -45.36995 -44.82961 -58.38432 -43.14258 -124.5451 -82.81282 -64.95116 -124.6273 -2616.185 0.636265 0.603830 487.5521 37320004 -1300.786 19.61663 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.384471 3.658610 6.380620 -1.769874 -0.750589 -1.729525 -1.570358 -0.889277 -1.171891 -1.028841 -2.287810 -1.861554 -1.963117 -2.058608 -4.292476
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
41.08547 295.7389 441.9061 43.31742 38.94297 36.15749 28.89147 50.41132 49.82061 41.93317 54.43856 44.48586 33.08573 60.53961 609.4816
Std. Error
944.7804 774.6048 15.29984 15.57433 15.41121 1.181968
0.1682 0.0003 0.0000 0.0787 0.4540 0.0857 0.1183 0.3752 0.2430 0.3051 0.0235 0.0645 0.0514 0.0412 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MARINEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:44 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-26.53630 -790.8695 896.6896 34.98624 33.57213 82.63742 74.93443 122.7126 104.4909 114.9015 101.8014 131.6739 155.3625 135.8465 145.6083 150.9441 1606.284
0.326214 0.256662 564.7419 49434672 -1324.963 4.690215 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.546359 -1.408119 2.873554 0.708187 0.627439 1.767571 1.331333 1.817326 1.579743 1.560602 1.346042 1.695891 1.840569 1.542161 1.471466 1.658304 2.608620
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
48.56935 561.6496 312.0490 49.40255 53.50658 46.75197 56.28525 67.52371 66.14421 73.62637 75.63019 77.64290 84.41008 88.08838 98.95459 91.02313 615.7601
Std. Error
1508.703 655.0235 15.60422 15.91531 15.73044 0.190580
0.5856 0.1611 0.0046 0.4799 0.5313 0.0791 0.1850 0.0711 0.1162 0.1207 0.1803 0.0919 0.0676 0.1251 0.1432 0.0993 0.0100
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MEDAGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:56 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-29.18478 -1348.896 1250.965 40.98985 61.45366 45.83106 84.91445 100.1524 66.51637 79.01852 75.45471 60.37876 37.77468 52.57072 76.85335 77.14308 57.31462 45.75364 56.37935 45.31178 1774.546 0.312147 0.221041 578.1149 50466740 -1326.740 3.426187 0.000008
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.598517 -2.013383 4.062065 0.963276 1.568309 1.167040 1.768970 2.071747 1.503263 1.473698 1.431391 1.076844 0.804292 1.036004 1.478171 1.484089 1.163261 1.017313 1.330356 1.098620 2.448901
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
48.76181 669.9651 307.9629 42.55254 39.18465 39.27120 48.00221 48.34197 44.24799 53.61922 52.71426 56.07012 46.96634 50.74372 51.99218 51.98011 49.27066 44.97497 42.37916 41.24426 724.6293
Std. Error
1508.703 655.0235 15.67139 16.05568 15.82731 0.347859
0.5504 0.0459 0.0001 0.3369 0.1189 0.2450 0.0789 0.0400 0.1349 0.1426 0.1544 0.2833 0.4225 0.3019 0.1414 0.1399 0.2466 0.3106 0.1854 0.2737 0.0155
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MEDAGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:26 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-21.08279 -1085.381 1127.854 24.64165 28.59490 33.64649 -5.256634 4.243845 -47.74512 -4.068943 -48.11309 -16.35912 -26.55136 -38.61320 1598.779
0.147611 0.071601 631.1376 62538552 -1345.184 1.942010 0.025793
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.398103 -1.646594 3.031995 0.480598 0.538783 0.577702 -0.104503 0.086850 -0.973287 -0.089338 -1.120217 -0.400205 -0.652441 -1.030418 2.178993
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
52.95811 659.1672 371.9840 51.27285 53.07312 58.24196 50.30117 48.86386 49.05555 45.54529 42.94980 40.87686 40.69543 37.47332 733.7236
Std. Error
1508.703 655.0235 15.81609 16.09059 15.92746 0.203782
0.6911 0.1016 0.0028 0.6315 0.5908 0.5643 0.9169 0.9309 0.3319 0.9289 0.2643 0.6895 0.5151 0.3044 0.0308
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MEDAGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:44 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-99.66761 943.1748 2509.322 -6.226612 -9.447197 9.777367 7.776700 -8.849602 -2.272891 31.86474 -33.84285 -0.321051 63.95621 -37.78223 -7.510306 12.21728 -407.3760 0.397871 0.335716 658.2790 67166344 -1351.324 6.401258 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.568064 2.145930 6.478197 -0.094049 -0.161669 0.160711 0.132775 -0.152641 -0.042081 0.566148 -0.552710 -0.006010 1.030313 -0.673842 -0.154484 0.275501 -0.681634
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
63.56092 439.5179 387.3488 66.20594 58.43542 60.83832 58.57071 57.97650 54.01252 56.28337 61.23074 53.42334 62.07452 56.06986 48.61551 44.34567 597.6458
Std. Error
2525.065 807.6686 15.91074 16.22183 16.03696 0.506799
0.1189 0.0334 0.0000 0.9252 0.8718 0.8725 0.8945 0.8789 0.9665 0.5721 0.5813 0.9952 0.3045 0.5014 0.8774 0.7833 0.4965
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MEDEQEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:56 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-112.7364 819.6494 2539.108 39.48727 49.58239 28.72615 -12.08702 45.59918 53.06674 -11.62722 8.337372 3.079588 0.973448 17.06089 40.60128 26.85993 44.13090 39.82239 68.47630 60.13007 -264.4226
0.422358 0.345849 653.2391 64434920 -1347.753 5.520379 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.563080 1.963198 6.340060 0.823859 1.079216 0.620315 -0.237363 1.046903 0.993933 -0.243789 0.169796 0.054779 0.018426 0.303092 0.761009 0.521106 0.803140 0.731868 1.322187 1.160433 -0.439233
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
72.12453 417.5072 400.4865 47.92966 45.94299 46.30894 50.92215 43.55627 53.39063 47.69387 49.10225 56.21798 52.82952 56.28949 53.35188 51.54404 54.94798 54.41198 51.79017 51.81691 602.0103
Std. Error
2525.065 807.6686 15.91573 16.30002 16.07165 0.528615
0.1201 0.0515 0.0000 0.4113 0.2822 0.5360 0.8127 0.2968 0.3218 0.8077 0.8654 0.9564 0.9853 0.7622 0.4478 0.6031 0.4232 0.4654 0.1881 0.2477 0.6611
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MEDEQEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:27 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-149.8354 836.0277 2116.272 -99.99463 -68.20420 -92.00340 -84.57878 -79.80250 -81.22974 -58.63239 -96.87741 -63.21065 -49.19109 -88.03127 250.7658 0.485992 0.440157 604.3190 57336634 -1337.716 10.60306 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.452277 2.379294 6.228705 -1.907385 -1.323451 -1.800751 -1.888367 -1.478455 -1.538465 -1.215153 -1.694440 -1.320641 -1.119913 -1.509434 0.488731
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
61.10054 351.3764 339.7611 52.42499 51.53511 51.09169 44.78939 53.97694 52.79922 48.25103 57.17371 47.86362 43.92401 58.32071 513.0957
Std. Error
2525.065 807.6686 15.72925 16.00374 15.84062 0.467819
0.0153 0.0185 0.0000 0.0583 0.1876 0.0737 0.0608 0.1413 0.1259 0.2261 0.0922 0.1885 0.2645 0.1332 0.6257
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MEDEQEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-326.9870 3975.569 10451.62 119.8955 56.79996 99.17004 86.49273 -12.15127 66.37215 160.0799 -136.1086 -29.69183 220.7225 -84.78351 -45.49791 31.45020 -8410.831
0.608691 0.568298 1754.627 4.77E+08 -1519.949 15.06915 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.782610 3.402135 7.011290 0.651242 0.426339 0.708318 0.667539 -0.087960 0.455342 1.069460 -0.783762 -0.224385 1.188286 -0.587386 -0.340503 0.260072 -4.689669
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
117.5109 1168.551 1490.685 184.1028 133.2273 140.0078 129.5695 138.1461 145.7634 149.6829 173.6606 132.3255 185.7486 144.3403 133.6198 120.9286 1793.481
Std. Error
4189.572 2670.501 17.87151 18.18259 17.99772 1.252408
0.0061 0.0009 0.0000 0.5159 0.6705 0.4798 0.5054 0.9300 0.6495 0.2865 0.4344 0.8228 0.2365 0.5578 0.7339 0.7952 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MEDSPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:56 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-334.1090 3829.095 10678.01 112.2532 184.6001 16.06091 -126.5597 71.39948 153.8212 -82.10831 14.01540 -21.34241 21.01061 23.94720 92.05259 35.65891 53.49201 0.171876 87.51350 88.26806 -8476.973 0.611476 0.560016 1771.377 4.74E+08 -1519.335 11.88254 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.643713 3.073329 7.922011 0.842059 1.480367 0.126485 -0.796112 0.685448 1.123648 -0.628559 0.114684 -0.133408 0.179679 0.164110 0.807039 0.331478 0.430855 0.001517 0.853566 0.862274 -5.103835
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
126.3787 1245.911 1347.892 133.3081 124.6988 126.9785 158.9722 104.1646 136.8945 130.6294 122.2089 159.9783 116.9338 145.9214 114.0621 107.5755 124.1530 113.3125 102.5269 102.3667 1660.903
Std. Error
4189.572 2670.501 17.91087 18.29516 18.06679 1.298343
0.0091 0.0025 0.0000 0.4011 0.1409 0.8995 0.4272 0.4941 0.2629 0.5306 0.9088 0.8940 0.8576 0.8699 0.4209 0.7407 0.6672 0.9988 0.3947 0.3899 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MEDSPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:27 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-482.8405 3597.190 9424.953 -245.7412 -103.3566 -228.7091 -149.8260 -142.3202 -176.0276 -102.0968 -380.7740 -257.0579 -215.4154 -399.6932 -6521.409
0.670323 0.640925 1600.241 4.02E+08 -1505.211 22.80166 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.652273 4.147787 6.464938 -1.759057 -0.791716 -1.839345 -1.597276 -0.891302 -1.058096 -0.743665 -2.112039 -1.737270 -1.933983 -1.949673 -3.183348
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
132.2027 867.2552 1457.857 139.7005 130.5476 124.3427 93.80097 159.6767 166.3626 137.2887 180.2874 147.9666 111.3843 205.0053 2048.601
Std. Error
4189.572 2670.501 17.67687 17.95136 17.78823 1.226469
0.0004 0.0001 0.0000 0.0805 0.4297 0.0678 0.1122 0.3741 0.2916 0.4582 0.0363 0.0843 0.0549 0.0530 0.0018
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MEDSPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
38.14414 179.8673 433.4500 -9.246447 -9.833693 -10.65432 -11.85066 -15.02214 -10.06179 -3.904741 -14.98641 -12.12548 3.273582 -12.32018 -3.791800 -3.444772 -474.8624 0.339344 0.271147 125.8900 2456484. -1066.798 4.975953 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 3.398440 1.678111 5.700916 -0.789359 -0.912352 -0.926553 -1.066892 -1.344969 -0.885772 -0.335707 -1.148497 -1.057663 0.239754 -1.058203 -0.350255 -0.366213 -4.514500
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.22402 107.1844 76.03163 11.71387 10.77840 11.49887 11.10765 11.16913 11.35934 11.63139 13.04871 11.46441 13.65393 11.64255 10.82583 9.406471 105.1860
Std. Error
273.9192 147.4590 12.60230 12.91339 12.72852 0.538227
0.0009 0.0953 0.0000 0.4311 0.3630 0.3556 0.2877 0.1806 0.3771 0.7375 0.2525 0.2919 0.8108 0.2916 0.7266 0.7147 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MINESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:56 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
36.38107 159.9617 419.6184 8.480343 15.73557 10.70026 3.392488 14.88566 18.26032 6.292154 8.116768 8.240821 4.510917 1.927847 2.164706 3.954910 2.090660 -0.304230 7.606045 8.159797 -431.9841
0.372655 0.289563 124.2894 2332626. -1062.348 4.484843 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 3.503195 1.398273 5.882660 0.875052 1.772041 1.125197 0.305619 1.657106 1.883146 0.648097 0.913888 0.794708 0.487542 0.187940 0.232156 0.426793 0.210717 -0.030508 0.812672 0.924854 -3.720465
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
10.38511 114.3995 71.33142 9.691246 8.879915 9.509675 11.10040 8.982929 9.696711 9.708659 8.881582 10.36962 9.252367 10.25777 9.324357 9.266579 9.921669 9.972216 9.359305 8.822795 116.1103
Std. Error
273.9192 147.4590 12.59707 12.98136 12.75299 0.517701
0.0006 0.1641 0.0000 0.3829 0.0784 0.2623 0.7603 0.0996 0.0616 0.5179 0.3622 0.4280 0.6266 0.8512 0.8167 0.6701 0.8334 0.9757 0.4177 0.3565 0.0003
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MINESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:27 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
23.96290 168.7123 301.9800 -26.58746 -22.82477 -28.69316 -27.13194 -22.46845 -19.24287 -18.62808 -23.51229 -15.42003 -10.90720 -20.41750 -283.6488 0.528916 0.486909 105.6254 1751607. -1037.713 12.59100 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic 2.623151 2.200609 4.274775 -3.227566 -2.461998 -3.377260 -3.351549 -2.443371 -1.890784 -2.185894 -2.735454 -1.915572 -1.388437 -2.003195 -2.126631
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
9.135157 76.66622 70.64230 8.237618 9.270833 8.495987 8.095345 9.195678 10.17719 8.521952 8.595390 8.049828 7.855741 10.19247 133.3794
Std. Error
273.9192 147.4590 12.24085 12.51534 12.35221 0.509335
0.0096 0.0292 0.0000 0.0015 0.0149 0.0009 0.0010 0.0157 0.0605 0.0303 0.0069 0.0572 0.1670 0.0469 0.0350
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MINESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
40.54906 133.6952 261.1626 -12.20000 -11.99577 -12.74835 -13.08484 -14.92205 -11.34742 -6.042005 -13.76297 -12.65892 -0.871433 -11.34816 -3.719384 -4.595607 -284.1612
0.316993 0.246489 109.7690 1867632. -1043.229 4.496100 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 4.247211 1.426996 4.461092 -1.158272 -1.144130 -1.140730 -1.191097 -1.392955 -1.043775 -0.547635 -1.164663 -1.180930 -0.073690 -1.103631 -0.387121 -0.560800 -3.169162
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
9.547221 93.68995 58.54231 10.53293 10.48463 11.17561 10.98553 10.71252 10.87152 11.03290 11.81713 10.71945 11.82566 10.28257 9.607812 8.194731 89.66446
Std. Error
264.5845 126.4547 12.32824 12.63933 12.45446 0.328037
0.0000 0.1556 0.0000 0.2485 0.2543 0.2557 0.2354 0.1656 0.2982 0.5847 0.2459 0.2394 0.9414 0.2715 0.6992 0.5757 0.0018
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MNINGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:56 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
38.13583 118.2350 237.4371 7.214416 11.59661 9.964568 5.552515 13.36347 14.96755 6.658210 7.184146 8.687856 6.185067 3.307435 2.324283 4.360003 2.904974 1.046110 6.552475 7.104379 -233.0036 0.341136 0.253869 109.2302 1801615. -1040.134 3.909110 0.000001
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic 4.362665 1.223909 4.010590 0.835943 1.445375 1.195761 0.601636 1.640559 1.754859 0.762088 0.896516 0.993696 0.760572 0.376593 0.281330 0.521571 0.324860 0.116551 0.758733 0.859968 -2.226155
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
8.741406 96.60438 59.20254 8.630275 8.023252 8.333241 9.229023 8.145679 8.529202 8.736802 8.013406 8.742968 8.132127 8.782516 8.261763 8.359371 8.942247 8.975523 8.636073 8.261218 104.6664
Std. Error
264.5845 126.4547 12.33876 12.72305 12.49468 0.286901
0.0000 0.2229 0.0001 0.4045 0.1504 0.2337 0.5483 0.1030 0.0813 0.4472 0.3714 0.3220 0.4481 0.7070 0.7788 0.6027 0.7457 0.9074 0.4492 0.3912 0.0275
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MNINGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:27 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
28.18521 130.1013 139.7075 -21.59961 -19.58450 -23.54369 -23.40646 -19.99852 -16.44809 -17.93595 -18.36681 -13.15280 -9.472230 -15.24856 -115.8159
0.481470 0.435232 95.03205 1417881. -1019.535 10.41279 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 3.669704 1.863547 2.220337 -2.772943 -2.219614 -2.862392 -2.897685 -2.329454 -1.754291 -2.175959 -2.377524 -1.792198 -1.265835 -1.884298 -0.966767
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
7.680511 69.81382 62.92174 7.789417 8.823380 8.225181 8.077639 8.585067 9.375920 8.242779 7.725187 7.338921 7.482990 8.092437 119.7972
Std. Error
264.5845 126.4547 12.02948 12.30397 12.14084 0.284646
0.0003 0.0643 0.0278 0.0062 0.0279 0.0048 0.0043 0.0211 0.0813 0.0311 0.0186 0.0750 0.2074 0.0614 0.3351
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MNINGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
10.37390 366.7303 662.8692 5.288421 1.115659 -1.285353 -2.659390 -9.048112 -4.201155 5.162413 -11.19860 -6.664119 15.18164 -6.666850 -3.193269 -2.275038 -745.4562 0.350280 0.283212 182.4301 5158514. -1130.603 5.222767 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.510459 2.615892 4.316113 0.329487 0.076086 -0.079440 -0.169761 -0.585149 -0.286648 0.341335 -0.675137 -0.442673 0.823506 -0.386217 -0.205722 -0.159429 -4.180740
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.32268 140.1932 153.5801 16.05046 14.66312 16.18008 15.66546 15.46293 14.65616 15.12420 16.58714 15.05427 18.43538 17.26194 15.52227 14.26993 178.3072
Std. Error
294.4204 215.4771 13.34422 13.65531 13.47043 0.567329
0.6105 0.0098 0.0000 0.7422 0.9394 0.9368 0.8654 0.5593 0.7748 0.7333 0.5006 0.6586 0.4115 0.6999 0.8373 0.8735 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MORTFEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:56 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
10.14415 313.0699 696.1672 23.00902 29.21096 17.79742 5.430305 18.49946 20.89443 1.054260 1.500111 1.000668 -0.124435 -2.539231 10.72155 9.212661 6.866827 6.413892 9.883808 11.52197 -723.9845
0.400035 0.320570 177.6125 4763477. -1123.751 5.034073 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.497226 2.218212 5.178656 1.839268 2.307474 1.326409 0.360384 1.548948 1.787099 0.086685 0.112080 0.067610 -0.009382 -0.190832 0.824266 0.710625 0.549940 0.520993 0.866536 1.056994 -4.214282
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.40150 141.1362 134.4301 12.50988 12.65928 13.41775 15.06813 11.94324 11.69182 12.16194 13.38434 14.80057 13.26308 13.30610 13.00739 12.96417 12.48649 12.31089 11.40611 10.90069 171.7931
Std. Error
294.4204 215.4771 13.31106 13.69534 13.46697 0.625375
0.6198 0.0280 0.0000 0.0678 0.0224 0.1867 0.7191 0.1235 0.0759 0.9310 0.9109 0.9462 0.9925 0.8489 0.4111 0.4784 0.5832 0.6031 0.3876 0.2922 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MORTFEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:27 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-4.255288 337.2147 548.1643 -29.57363 -22.25817 -32.42048 -21.95270 -22.08157 -21.35656 -14.64102 -27.70873 -18.96505 -16.32533 -27.45721 -554.0148 0.461017 0.412955 165.0961 4279306. -1114.533 9.592098 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.228245 3.123287 4.284720 -2.146105 -1.603590 -2.354280 -1.698580 -1.561431 -1.493618 -1.107290 -1.905735 -1.401160 -1.269647 -1.980774 -2.805132
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
18.64353 107.9679 127.9347 13.78014 13.88022 13.77087 12.92415 14.14188 14.29854 13.22239 14.53965 13.53525 12.85817 13.86186 197.5005
Std. Error
294.4204 215.4771 13.13410 13.40859 13.24547 0.531889
0.8198 0.0021 0.0000 0.0334 0.1108 0.0198 0.0914 0.1204 0.1373 0.2699 0.0585 0.1631 0.2061 0.0494 0.0057
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MORTFEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-13.02598 708.6323 3082.131 50.94965 31.44979 58.44561 39.60189 23.23595 46.24933 72.55874 -6.311252 18.51452 78.27822 -14.29130 -17.41402 16.47312 -2163.120
0.561032 0.515720 513.4556 40863683 -1308.588 12.38132 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.364288 1.982702 7.663491 1.020609 0.920689 1.608212 1.210584 0.668875 1.135259 1.796427 -0.130518 0.494389 1.446053 -0.355881 -0.498777 0.520167 -4.332313
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
35.75732 357.4074 402.1836 49.92081 34.15897 36.34199 32.71305 34.73887 40.73902 40.39058 48.35527 37.44930 54.13232 40.15750 34.91347 31.66889 499.2992
Std. Error
1413.181 737.8268 15.41381 15.72490 15.54003 1.164579
0.7161 0.0492 0.0000 0.3090 0.3586 0.1098 0.2279 0.5046 0.2580 0.0744 0.8963 0.6217 0.1502 0.7224 0.6186 0.6037 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MTUTLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:56 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-10.15043 676.6433 3215.988 23.39671 51.41010 -15.34821 -56.24461 7.859965 28.81092 -27.11300 3.678864 -14.01943 -10.45260 -5.201601 16.28070 3.407050 11.69001 -5.322619 25.80738 19.55869 -2284.867 0.552212 0.492903 525.4121 41684741 -1310.298 9.310670 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.242228 1.838526 7.983153 0.601031 1.362087 -0.448992 -1.140470 0.290964 0.731857 -0.687876 0.106960 -0.286178 -0.282515 -0.110658 0.445315 0.110008 0.305968 -0.153284 0.755931 0.586057 -4.415989
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
41.90445 368.0357 402.8468 38.92763 37.74364 34.18371 49.31704 27.01353 39.36690 39.41553 34.39462 48.98855 36.99837 47.00621 36.55994 30.97106 38.20665 34.72399 34.13986 33.37336 517.4078
Std. Error
1413.181 737.8268 15.48021 15.86450 15.63613 1.218556
0.8089 0.0679 0.0000 0.5487 0.1752 0.6541 0.2559 0.7715 0.4654 0.4926 0.9150 0.7751 0.7779 0.9120 0.6567 0.9125 0.7601 0.8784 0.4509 0.5587 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MTUTLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:27 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-50.44785 577.3708 2900.366 -62.94920 -21.73951 -38.59398 -24.56527 -15.46094 -43.02137 -19.70571 -111.5534 -71.37035 -56.49483 -120.3732 -1741.723
0.603099 0.567707 485.1138 36947654 -1299.924 17.04035 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.188495 2.205529 6.300446 -1.474083 -0.530605 -1.067072 -0.810624 -0.315587 -0.827961 -0.474346 -2.123594 -1.698636 -1.815937 -1.957259 -2.999377
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
42.44684 261.7834 460.3429 42.70398 40.97115 36.16810 30.30415 48.99100 51.96063 41.54295 52.53045 42.01628 31.11056 61.50090 580.6948
Std. Error
1413.181 737.8268 15.28981 15.56430 15.40118 1.109986
0.2364 0.0289 0.0000 0.1425 0.5964 0.2876 0.4188 0.7527 0.4089 0.6359 0.0353 0.0914 0.0713 0.0521 0.0031
Prob.
Dependent Variable: MTUTLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-38.07898 213.4710 992.1176 16.74673 4.887318 11.47247 3.197014 -0.987190 0.363560 10.43623 -11.74552 -5.716346 13.38457 -16.04459 -11.94135 -2.792306 -446.2363 0.629500 0.591255 156.0439 3774202. -1103.731 16.45958 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.942993 2.032927 8.066960 1.096485 0.466855 1.054497 0.325087 -0.094278 0.033160 0.859304 -0.831424 -0.562323 0.823613 -1.264257 -0.927676 -0.262950 -3.045687
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
9.657380 105.0067 122.9853 15.27311 10.46859 10.87956 9.834325 10.47109 10.96394 12.14498 14.12700 10.16558 16.25104 12.69093 12.87233 10.61916 146.5142
Std. Error
559.6138 244.0733 13.03176 13.34285 13.15797 1.247420
0.0001 0.0438 0.0000 0.2746 0.6413 0.2933 0.7456 0.9250 0.9736 0.3915 0.4070 0.5747 0.4114 0.2080 0.3550 0.7929 0.0027
Prob.
Dependent Variable: NDRHPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:57 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-37.88493 229.8713 1004.043 3.909450 7.536648 -3.050134 -16.80109 6.050430 8.468183 -10.33057 -0.839669 -8.961222 -6.163127 -4.208541 -0.502621 -3.615966 0.304930 -1.550278 7.191442 7.367030 -474.7217
0.628791 0.579624 158.2484 3781425. -1103.895 12.78893 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.514591 2.060598 8.573811 0.337103 0.709011 -0.259078 -1.177766 0.641694 0.671749 -0.877248 -0.076573 -0.642563 -0.529302 -0.294984 -0.045149 -0.340262 0.027418 -0.145823 0.740619 0.777554 -3.235819
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
10.77933 111.5556 117.1058 11.59719 10.62981 11.77304 14.26522 9.428846 12.60618 11.77612 10.96561 13.94607 11.64389 14.26701 11.13258 10.62701 11.12150 10.63120 9.710047 9.474626 146.7084
Std. Error
559.6138 244.0733 13.08018 13.46447 13.23610 1.284522
0.0006 0.0411 0.0000 0.7365 0.4794 0.7959 0.2407 0.5220 0.5028 0.3817 0.9391 0.5215 0.5974 0.7684 0.9640 0.7341 0.9782 0.8843 0.4601 0.4380 0.0015
Prob.
Dependent Variable: NDRHPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:28 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-53.88877 186.0362 886.1244 -20.89022 -13.57979 -22.11582 -15.42363 -12.83191 -20.94357 -8.035775 -38.20846 -26.01190 -20.55343 -37.40659 -261.7192 0.701485 0.674866 139.1719 3040904. -1085.152 26.35264 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -4.944614 2.514459 7.321206 -1.653854 -1.164044 -1.911879 -1.739438 -0.916802 -1.449140 -0.626573 -2.240009 -1.940947 -2.027242 -2.157971 -1.668110
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
10.89848 73.98658 121.0353 12.63124 11.66604 11.56759 8.867021 13.99638 14.45242 12.82496 17.05728 13.40166 10.13862 17.33415 156.8957
Std. Error
559.6138 244.0733 12.79247 13.06696 12.90383 1.210871
0.0000 0.0129 0.0000 0.1002 0.2462 0.0577 0.0839 0.3607 0.1493 0.5318 0.0265 0.0541 0.0443 0.0325 0.0973
Prob.
Dependent Variable: NDRHPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-34.95473 -745.4012 4254.538 120.8309 67.27144 102.7908 40.78633 51.32644 75.75751 90.46051 -7.278976 62.50772 96.40525 0.414033 -15.89279 61.39618 -64.81613
0.454159 0.397814 847.8883 1.11E+08 -1394.860 8.060328 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.439239 -0.902967 5.721834 1.522471 1.068571 1.609004 0.624689 0.857025 1.170645 1.391986 -0.104899 1.057007 1.239499 0.005960 -0.220171 0.891876 -0.069437
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
79.58026 825.5020 743.5620 79.36502 62.95458 63.88474 65.29065 59.88910 64.71433 64.98663 69.39049 59.13655 77.77759 69.46622 72.18384 68.83938 933.4480
Std. Error
3074.667 1092.630 16.41698 16.72807 16.54320 0.779108
0.6611 0.3679 0.0000 0.1299 0.2869 0.1097 0.5331 0.3928 0.2435 0.1659 0.9166 0.2922 0.2170 0.9953 0.8260 0.3738 0.9447
Prob.
Dependent Variable: NLINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:57 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-32.97749 -741.0538 4450.498 -31.72057 18.11554 -59.07771 -96.93375 -10.07100 -20.44633 -69.15175 -21.19753 -56.25656 -79.63023 -40.13363 6.776046 -4.225970 28.98654 14.69819 80.39326 54.84832 -284.7056 0.462940 0.391807 852.1067 1.10E+08 -1393.465 6.508032 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.395697 -0.916041 6.744089 -0.489168 0.293629 -0.973857 -1.364111 -0.183774 -0.342454 -1.057357 -0.333609 -0.752907 -1.163468 -0.509426 0.100580 -0.061653 0.389499 0.215196 1.163709 0.851522 -0.295745
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
83.34034 808.9742 659.9109 64.84596 61.69545 60.66366 71.06004 54.80096 59.70539 65.40056 63.53996 74.71909 68.44213 78.78198 67.36979 68.54477 74.42013 68.30154 69.08364 64.41213 962.6729
Std. Error
3074.667 1092.630 16.44727 16.83156 16.60319 0.849573
0.6929 0.3611 0.0000 0.6254 0.7694 0.3317 0.1746 0.8544 0.7325 0.2920 0.7391 0.4527 0.2465 0.6112 0.9200 0.9509 0.6975 0.8299 0.2464 0.3958 0.7678
Prob.
Dependent Variable: NLINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:28 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-63.98968 -944.8262 4197.384 -76.37156 -54.48396 -51.14340 -46.60400 3.606330 -65.33228 7.825972 -123.6354 -51.26130 -46.08461 -110.4342 261.2600
0.459305 0.411091 838.4891 1.10E+08 -1394.046 9.526229 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.657214 -1.271869 4.997719 -0.957227 -0.755624 -0.660268 -0.689122 0.041416 -0.759720 0.089904 -1.334370 -0.685097 -0.684083 -1.292073 0.291470
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
97.36501 742.8644 839.8599 79.78418 72.10464 77.45858 67.62807 87.07601 85.99525 87.04834 92.65453 74.82340 67.36694 85.47056 896.3517
Std. Error
3074.667 1092.630 16.38425 16.65874 16.49562 0.730356
0.5120 0.2053 0.0000 0.3399 0.4510 0.5100 0.4918 0.9670 0.4486 0.9285 0.1840 0.4943 0.4949 0.1982 0.7711
Prob.
Dependent Variable: NLINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
65.64453 447.7062 1178.798 17.02434 12.23579 18.94339 15.31917 7.866121 21.34711 32.37718 2.947805 14.60204 38.14565 -1.026607 -5.790962 -1.028302 -1364.057 0.430463 0.371672 265.5948 10933791 -1195.207 7.321922 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 3.684800 2.350095 5.477555 0.763472 0.755494 1.083905 0.932839 0.424689 0.871837 1.471737 0.116869 0.752812 1.347660 -0.053469 -0.335631 -0.069273 -4.256485
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
17.81495 190.5055 215.2050 22.29858 16.19575 17.47699 16.42208 18.52207 24.48521 21.99930 25.22326 19.39665 28.30511 19.20012 17.25397 14.84417 320.4657
Std. Error
461.3761 335.0628 14.09543 14.40652 14.22164 0.837281
0.0003 0.0200 0.0000 0.4463 0.4511 0.2801 0.3524 0.6717 0.3846 0.1431 0.9071 0.4527 0.1797 0.9574 0.7376 0.9449 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: NOFMSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:57 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
69.41368 406.9084 1250.157 29.88759 39.61691 11.33864 -10.50262 8.472297 19.92397 -6.842954 3.053174 -0.114012 9.685181 13.39413 4.720578 -0.573381 1.178049 -11.69564 0.947143 6.019215 -1414.721
0.440876 0.366820 266.6183 10733881 -1193.620 5.953264 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 3.651851 2.166599 5.201450 1.315328 1.954406 0.708379 -0.447181 0.724249 1.084727 -0.349900 0.178818 -0.004854 0.581836 0.561856 0.280562 -0.043577 0.064787 -0.732638 0.056044 0.340263 -4.146276
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
19.00781 187.8097 240.3477 22.72253 20.27056 16.00645 23.48627 11.69805 18.36773 19.55687 17.07420 23.48783 16.64588 23.83909 16.82541 13.15776 18.18343 15.96374 16.90007 17.68991 341.2027
Std. Error
461.3761 335.0628 14.12348 14.50777 14.27940 0.901544
0.0004 0.0318 0.0000 0.1904 0.0525 0.4798 0.6554 0.4700 0.2798 0.7269 0.8583 0.9961 0.5615 0.5750 0.7794 0.9653 0.9484 0.4649 0.9554 0.7341 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: NOFMSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:28 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
52.71247 396.3594 1130.003 -12.93824 5.049377 -9.805386 -5.355552 0.374874 -5.755914 0.194134 -42.11247 -27.14662 -22.62949 -55.88735 -1227.320 0.455587 0.407041 258.0112 10451457 -1191.327 9.384584 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic 2.542052 2.539624 4.264048 -0.693519 0.223958 -0.552870 -0.302067 0.013656 -0.198706 0.008154 -2.015582 -1.466858 -1.531722 -1.702244 -3.325157
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.73619 156.0701 265.0071 18.65593 22.54609 17.73543 17.72970 27.45030 28.96700 23.80756 20.89346 18.50664 14.77390 32.83158 369.1013
Std. Error
461.3761 335.0628 14.02705 14.30154 14.13842 0.785912
0.0120 0.0121 0.0000 0.4890 0.8231 0.5811 0.7630 0.9891 0.8427 0.9935 0.0455 0.1444 0.1276 0.0907 0.0011
Prob.
Dependent Variable: NOFMSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:45 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-78.90464 1250.293 2713.494 15.55838 15.29040 22.32226 14.71346 -13.05110 7.725584 43.29779 -23.51524 0.859589 67.76156 -24.58484 -11.06822 8.216891 -2551.307
0.480854 0.427265 601.3548 56052271 -1335.767 8.972962 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.339043 3.180693 5.311873 0.247041 0.277950 0.391605 0.271859 -0.240347 0.149675 0.784976 -0.403870 0.017110 1.100563 -0.474759 -0.225815 0.183549 -3.784143
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
58.92615 393.0881 510.8357 62.97905 55.01125 57.00202 54.12177 54.30103 51.61557 55.15813 58.22483 50.23844 61.56988 51.78389 49.01462 44.76682 674.2101
Std. Error
962.1173 794.6097 15.72985 16.04094 15.85607 0.772503
0.1825 0.0018 0.0000 0.8052 0.7814 0.6959 0.7861 0.8104 0.8812 0.4337 0.6869 0.9864 0.2728 0.6356 0.8216 0.8546 0.0002
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILEPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:57 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-92.46310 1115.011 2775.096 43.46819 70.54712 25.86528 -23.24393 35.45065 59.13335 3.461511 20.75650 12.51076 26.15881 19.36973 50.23753 48.92682 44.12616 37.65099 55.03232 54.37701 -2428.884 0.515085 0.450858 588.8383 52356314 -1329.901 8.019755 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.534741 2.518269 6.507680 1.061999 1.766715 0.627197 -0.468876 0.992752 1.553580 0.081289 0.569739 0.273397 0.706247 0.463837 1.251884 1.266251 1.083844 0.907791 1.446032 1.435834 -4.100226
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
60.24672 442.7686 426.4340 40.93053 39.93125 41.23949 49.57376 35.70946 38.06264 42.58301 36.43157 45.76047 37.03915 41.75981 40.12953 38.63910 40.71266 41.47541 38.05746 37.87138 592.3781
Std. Error
962.1173 794.6097 15.70815 16.09244 15.86407 0.825124
0.1269 0.0128 0.0000 0.2899 0.0793 0.5315 0.6398 0.3224 0.1224 0.9353 0.5697 0.7849 0.4811 0.6434 0.2125 0.2074 0.2802 0.3654 0.1502 0.1531 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILEPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:28 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-116.6347 1139.721 2460.630 -105.3610 -52.55282 -82.98795 -60.40221 -52.24695 -44.65467 -24.42818 -80.74406 -47.65741 -41.87279 -100.6042 -2071.857
0.542640 0.501856 560.8300 49381247 -1324.870 13.30532 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.004407 3.322061 5.153060 -2.263013 -1.138393 -1.977877 -1.530357 -1.095214 -0.890489 -0.598970 -1.599758 -1.022937 -1.001772 -1.743338 -2.820695
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
58.18915 343.0765 477.5085 46.55787 46.16406 41.95809 39.46936 47.70480 50.14623 40.78367 50.47266 46.58880 41.79871 57.70776 734.5199
Std. Error
962.1173 794.6097 15.57988 15.85437 15.69125 0.744142
0.0467 0.0011 0.0000 0.0250 0.2567 0.0497 0.1279 0.2751 0.3746 0.5501 0.1117 0.3079 0.3180 0.0832 0.0054
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILEPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
1.214025 47.00509 201.4166 1.140879 0.515938 1.402077 -0.166039 -1.128207 0.293582 1.944846 -3.421840 -1.313826 3.052093 -2.831161 -1.864668 0.023062 -180.3030 0.525917 0.476980 34.01547 179343.0 -841.7197 10.74670 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.522183 1.968479 8.213927 0.339005 0.216696 0.538933 -0.070504 -0.443484 0.103198 0.695628 -0.992820 -0.501591 0.811907 -0.983708 -0.732554 0.010181 -5.775124
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
2.324901 23.87889 24.52135 3.365373 2.380933 2.601578 2.355021 2.543966 2.844840 2.795813 3.446586 2.619317 3.759166 2.878050 2.545435 2.265296 31.22063
Std. Error
63.39222 47.03457 9.985113 10.29620 10.11133 1.154389
0.6023 0.0508 0.0000 0.7351 0.8287 0.5907 0.9439 0.6580 0.9179 0.4877 0.3223 0.6167 0.4181 0.3268 0.4649 0.9919 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:57 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
1.009743 48.44198 202.2229 1.318240 3.458591 -0.039741 -3.514146 0.492380 1.809729 -1.978561 0.015555 -0.146652 0.003649 -0.031754 1.248416 0.267871 0.570592 -0.347667 1.864364 1.528999 -181.6268
0.529996 0.467744 34.31450 177800.2 -840.9767 8.513685 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.410014 1.909130 8.580604 0.491528 1.455611 -0.017528 -1.089913 0.251706 0.668849 -0.753161 0.006631 -0.046699 0.001544 -0.010876 0.529084 0.128552 0.222872 -0.152083 0.877552 0.748646 -5.581061
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
2.462706 25.37385 23.56744 2.681919 2.376041 2.267330 3.224244 1.956169 2.705734 2.627010 2.345637 3.140389 2.363427 2.919726 2.359577 2.083744 2.560179 2.286031 2.124505 2.042352 32.54341
Std. Error
63.39222 47.03457 10.02298 10.40727 10.17890 1.177641
0.6824 0.0581 0.0000 0.6238 0.1476 0.9860 0.2775 0.8016 0.5046 0.4525 0.9947 0.9628 0.9988 0.9913 0.5975 0.8979 0.8239 0.8793 0.3816 0.4552 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:28 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-2.100054 41.88542 177.7829 -4.515437 -1.613616 -3.576747 -2.609846 -2.158969 -3.521980 -2.212959 -7.899028 -5.368222 -4.633930 -8.367003 -140.7429 0.607840 0.572870 30.73952 148352.1 -825.4045 17.38192 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.837287 2.552672 6.784394 -1.717162 -0.646333 -1.613903 -1.443267 -0.711388 -1.058598 -0.890999 -2.518181 -2.109780 -2.325239 -2.091422 -3.775627
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
2.508165 16.40846 26.20468 2.629592 2.496569 2.216210 1.808290 3.034867 3.327024 2.483684 3.136799 2.544447 1.992883 4.000629 37.27670
Std. Error
63.39222 47.03457 9.772145 10.04664 9.883513 1.091852
0.4037 0.0116 0.0000 0.0879 0.5190 0.1086 0.1509 0.4779 0.2914 0.3743 0.0128 0.0365 0.0213 0.0381 0.0002
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-168.5319 655.3327 3753.983 48.60031 38.63643 71.68322 34.43930 27.05272 41.72984 65.43721 -16.92845 20.24669 91.66252 -16.57668 -5.022551 35.07323 -1467.791
0.630656 0.592530 607.2008 57147378 -1337.431 16.54143 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.709362 1.745667 6.594273 0.775126 0.903941 1.494461 0.776702 0.628392 0.883004 1.322285 -0.295628 0.455731 1.461241 -0.363518 -0.118281 0.907711 -2.208837
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
45.43421 375.4054 569.2793 62.69989 42.74221 47.96593 44.34044 43.05071 47.25895 49.48796 57.26257 44.42688 62.72922 45.60072 42.46297 38.63921 664.5086
Std. Error
2072.436 951.2278 15.74920 16.06029 15.87542 1.199330
0.0003 0.0829 0.0000 0.4394 0.3674 0.1371 0.4385 0.5307 0.3786 0.1880 0.7679 0.6492 0.1460 0.7167 0.9060 0.3654 0.0287
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILGPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:57 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-175.4357 550.8915 3883.971 19.27406 62.26612 -4.467923 -51.53214 21.58354 38.47308 -18.04721 18.88338 -1.506497 -3.998769 6.401429 36.31105 32.99886 40.76363 21.85182 60.01088 43.05124 -1476.584 0.632646 0.583990 613.5307 56839415 -1336.967 13.00240 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.436927 1.415867 7.738438 0.437623 1.513849 -0.108845 -0.954612 0.652786 0.888585 -0.403702 0.488998 -0.028349 -0.094271 0.121601 0.902503 0.919615 0.945927 0.536469 1.592370 1.162888 -2.420417
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
51.04434 389.0843 501.9063 44.04264 41.13101 41.04831 53.98228 33.06375 43.29703 44.70425 38.61646 53.14176 42.41798 52.64296 40.23370 35.88333 43.09385 40.73272 37.68651 37.02097 610.0536
Std. Error
2072.436 951.2278 15.79031 16.17460 15.94622 1.266206
0.0008 0.1589 0.0000 0.6623 0.1322 0.9135 0.3413 0.5149 0.3756 0.6870 0.6256 0.9774 0.9250 0.9034 0.3682 0.3592 0.3457 0.5924 0.1134 0.2467 0.0167
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILGPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:28 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-208.4679 498.1512 3566.285 -83.46085 -21.92395 -51.93096 -32.88864 -19.59189 -53.33286 -12.86358 -126.3787 -67.02632 -62.14832 -131.7359 -1008.299
0.665868 0.636073 573.8409 51699063 -1328.815 22.34820 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.789230 1.746574 6.011927 -1.585832 -0.458686 -1.143041 -0.908383 -0.357909 -0.900316 -0.263890 -1.926110 -1.277656 -1.476485 -1.809547 -1.372571
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
55.01590 285.2162 593.2017 52.62907 47.79735 45.43227 36.20569 54.73989 59.23796 48.74604 65.61344 52.46038 42.09209 72.80049 734.6063
Std. Error
2072.436 951.2278 15.62575 15.90024 15.73712 1.137711
0.0002 0.0827 0.0000 0.1148 0.6471 0.2548 0.3651 0.7209 0.3693 0.7922 0.0559 0.2033 0.1418 0.0723 0.1718
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILGPEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-161.6817 688.7956 3902.246 50.45520 40.00949 73.21191 35.80829 26.91357 43.80868 68.56333 -17.78153 21.47340 95.70586 -17.26316 -5.229804 36.00501 -1659.457 0.628787 0.590468 625.1327 60572584 -1342.437 16.40935 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.537053 1.776434 6.799101 0.781936 0.918551 1.501137 0.794673 0.611207 0.894325 1.348579 -0.300035 0.471373 1.471797 -0.365527 -0.119859 0.905692 -2.461160
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
45.71084 387.7405 573.9356 64.52604 43.55720 48.77097 45.06043 44.03346 48.98518 50.84118 59.26479 45.55504 65.02655 47.22810 43.63290 39.75416 674.2582
Std. Error
2082.133 976.8507 15.80741 16.11850 15.93363 1.216310
0.0005 0.0776 0.0000 0.4354 0.3598 0.1354 0.4280 0.5420 0.3725 0.1794 0.7646 0.6380 0.1431 0.7152 0.9047 0.3665 0.0149
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILGSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:57 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-167.9052 581.9552 4038.823 21.13554 66.20795 -4.389348 -53.07798 21.98608 39.60616 -18.99884 18.38718 -2.265821 -4.073116 6.484447 36.99181 31.78879 40.04220 19.69583 59.46635 42.64216 -1675.578
0.629735 0.580693 632.5488 60417815 -1342.217 12.84081 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.255238 1.446757 7.891913 0.464307 1.560232 -0.104796 -0.948619 0.645438 0.880617 -0.411949 0.463193 -0.040986 -0.093145 0.118958 0.892718 0.862610 0.895290 0.471246 1.539785 1.127673 -2.679486
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
51.58002 402.2480 511.7673 45.52065 42.43469 41.88462 55.95286 34.06380 44.97548 46.11945 39.69660 55.28318 43.72855 54.51057 41.43727 36.85188 44.72539 41.79523 38.61992 37.81429 625.3356
Std. Error
2082.133 976.8507 15.85136 16.23565 16.00728 1.282150
0.0014 0.1500 0.0000 0.6431 0.1208 0.9167 0.3443 0.5196 0.3799 0.6810 0.6439 0.9674 0.9259 0.9055 0.3734 0.3897 0.3721 0.6381 0.1257 0.2612 0.0082
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILGSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:28 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-203.3480 526.0211 3704.947 -84.17876 -21.29809 -52.31195 -34.36983 -20.74351 -54.74524 -13.28574 -130.9208 -70.18248 -64.76364 -138.3748 -1179.692 0.664470 0.634550 590.5301 54749945 -1333.746 22.20833 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.658373 1.799881 6.146406 -1.554365 -0.434889 -1.128252 -0.934244 -0.366534 -0.891234 -0.264639 -1.944266 -1.303493 -1.509880 -1.823452 -1.572583
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
55.58427 292.2532 602.7827 54.15637 48.97366 46.36546 36.78892 56.59364 61.42636 50.20331 67.33687 53.84185 42.89325 75.88616 750.1619
Std. Error
2082.133 976.8507 15.68309 15.95758 15.79446 1.153775
0.0003 0.0738 0.0000 0.1221 0.6642 0.2609 0.3516 0.7145 0.3742 0.7916 0.0537 0.1943 0.1331 0.0701 0.1178
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILGSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-184.5452 642.4082 3987.344 54.18050 42.93379 79.54065 39.54432 33.35787 47.71890 71.86032 -14.33544 25.31992 99.69448 -14.40612 -2.580768 40.82160 -1448.291
0.637416 0.599988 639.1421 63317904 -1346.249 17.03047 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.887429 1.609503 6.613711 0.818591 0.959122 1.578354 0.848631 0.744891 0.963365 1.385938 -0.239306 0.547799 1.518790 -0.303268 -0.058149 1.007272 -2.065480
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
47.47231 399.1344 602.8906 66.18754 44.76363 50.39470 46.59780 44.78221 49.53354 51.84957 59.90433 46.22119 65.64071 47.50295 44.38222 40.52688 701.1884
Std. Error
2234.740 1010.558 15.85174 16.16283 15.97795 1.211037
0.0001 0.1095 0.0000 0.4143 0.3390 0.1165 0.3974 0.4575 0.3369 0.1678 0.8112 0.5846 0.1309 0.7621 0.9537 0.3154 0.0405
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILINEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:57 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-191.3036 525.3933 4135.154 19.11479 65.79165 -6.143638 -54.25970 22.87977 39.54625 -18.52227 20.82985 -1.740485 -5.434282 6.624175 38.51023 34.59569 43.66175 22.76224 63.38226 44.82205 -1464.594 0.637679 0.589690 647.3172 63271962 -1346.187 13.28790 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.578057 1.280130 7.747779 0.411737 1.512967 -0.142249 -0.955346 0.655078 0.865440 -0.393517 0.514506 -0.031022 -0.121047 0.118409 0.913354 0.921287 0.961287 0.531418 1.596157 1.153817 -2.263472
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
53.46578 410.4217 533.7212 46.42482 43.48517 43.18922 56.79584 34.92680 45.69497 47.06848 40.48514 56.10488 44.89405 55.94325 42.16353 37.55146 45.42011 42.83303 39.70929 38.84675 647.0566
Std. Error
2234.740 1010.558 15.89752 16.28181 16.05344 1.277940
0.0005 0.2025 0.0000 0.6811 0.1324 0.8871 0.3409 0.5134 0.3882 0.6945 0.6077 0.9753 0.9038 0.9059 0.3625 0.3584 0.3379 0.5959 0.1125 0.2504 0.0250
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILINEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:29 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-224.9637 471.2145 3810.836 -85.27264 -20.18848 -51.40076 -31.75589 -17.18457 -54.90283 -10.37294 -133.0890 -69.65637 -64.50522 -138.0764 -986.6208
0.668567 0.639012 607.1661 57878156 -1338.524 22.62142 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.853749 1.540609 6.017759 -1.524942 -0.400192 -1.065435 -0.829328 -0.296070 -0.873726 -0.199079 -1.894637 -1.244000 -1.433010 -1.785463 -1.273463
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
58.37530 305.8624 633.2649 55.91862 50.44695 48.24390 38.29110 58.04228 62.83759 52.10477 70.24514 55.99387 45.01378 77.33365 774.7541
Std. Error
2234.740 1010.558 15.73865 16.01314 15.85002 1.145483
0.0002 0.1254 0.0000 0.1293 0.6896 0.2883 0.4082 0.7676 0.3836 0.8425 0.0600 0.2154 0.1538 0.0761 0.2047
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILINEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
1.213329 47.08098 201.6254 1.145147 0.512446 1.400494 -0.168669 -1.125578 0.294911 1.951678 -3.420277 -1.310091 3.059064 -2.821728 -1.864240 0.027371 -180.5101 0.525660 0.476696 34.07050 179923.9 -841.9978 10.73562 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.521205 1.968918 8.199658 0.339834 0.215122 0.537565 -0.071543 -0.441703 0.103481 0.696711 -0.990767 -0.499159 0.812482 -0.978923 -0.731497 0.012064 -5.772001
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
2.327928 23.91211 24.58949 3.369721 2.382119 2.605256 2.357596 2.548268 2.849904 2.801275 3.452150 2.624594 3.765086 2.882484 2.548525 2.268788 31.27341
Std. Error
63.45572 47.09790 9.988346 10.29944 10.11456 1.154187
0.6030 0.0507 0.0000 0.7344 0.8300 0.5916 0.9431 0.6593 0.9177 0.4870 0.3233 0.6184 0.4178 0.3291 0.4656 0.9904 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:57 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
1.009500 48.51639 202.4467 1.325559 3.469826 -0.039059 -3.523896 0.487886 1.811052 -1.992148 0.014722 -0.144320 0.002406 -0.023773 1.255068 0.273882 0.572583 -0.348546 1.865710 1.527103 -181.8499
0.529819 0.467543 34.36716 178346.4 -841.2404 8.507645 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.409381 1.909629 8.572327 0.493361 1.457456 -0.017207 -1.090821 0.249268 0.668363 -0.756942 0.006266 -0.045888 0.001017 -0.008132 0.530924 0.131340 0.223464 -0.152352 0.876861 0.746532 -5.581116
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
2.465919 25.40618 23.61631 2.686795 2.380742 2.269988 3.230498 1.957275 2.709683 2.631837 2.349715 3.145023 2.365697 2.923443 2.363929 2.085292 2.562303 2.287759 2.127716 2.045598 32.58307
Std. Error
63.45572 47.09790 10.02605 10.41034 10.18197 1.177442
0.6828 0.0581 0.0000 0.6225 0.1471 0.9863 0.2771 0.8035 0.5049 0.4503 0.9950 0.9635 0.9992 0.9935 0.5963 0.8957 0.8235 0.8791 0.3820 0.4565 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:29 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-2.101958 41.94829 177.9904 -4.516903 -1.612603 -3.587545 -2.609155 -2.154467 -3.525837 -2.211332 -7.908039 -5.372571 -4.637366 -8.370614 -140.9332 0.607499 0.572499 30.79430 148881.3 -825.7107 17.35705 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.836648 2.552398 6.773661 -1.715057 -0.644883 -1.616146 -1.439237 -0.708422 -1.057377 -0.888984 -2.516368 -2.107932 -2.323814 -2.089811 -3.772950
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
2.512356 16.43485 26.27684 2.633675 2.500614 2.219815 1.812874 3.041221 3.334512 2.487484 3.142640 2.548740 1.995584 4.005440 37.35358
Std. Error
63.45572 47.09790 9.775706 10.05020 9.887074 1.091634
0.4041 0.0117 0.0000 0.0883 0.5199 0.1081 0.1521 0.4797 0.2920 0.3754 0.0129 0.0366 0.0214 0.0382 0.0002
Prob.
Dependent Variable: OILSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
15.61262 145.1439 225.8586 6.922001 4.755788 -0.470698 -0.359290 -3.710575 -2.008432 -1.540195 -7.179602 -5.907852 -1.896994 -11.87918 -8.081976 -6.610744 130.9087
0.386893 0.323605 65.50093 665007.5 -954.4225 6.113169 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 2.733800 3.231212 4.298143 1.211840 0.940926 -0.082377 -0.067938 -0.592186 -0.358083 -0.267807 -1.148754 -1.144781 -0.319346 -2.121676 -1.584179 -1.316812 1.817646
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
5.710959 44.91934 52.54794 5.711974 5.054370 5.713927 5.288464 6.265891 5.608847 5.751130 6.249901 5.160682 5.940252 5.598959 5.101681 5.020266 72.02101
Std. Error
555.0471 79.64291 11.29561 11.60670 11.42183 0.705512
0.0070 0.0015 0.0000 0.2274 0.3482 0.9345 0.9459 0.5546 0.7208 0.7892 0.2524 0.2541 0.7499 0.0355 0.1152 0.1898 0.0710
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PAPEREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:58 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
13.39078 136.7308 224.4370 4.908286 7.072580 6.606021 1.402076 6.981244 8.532360 0.225187 4.232336 3.021856 1.687689 3.757474 3.850721 3.973958 6.296299 4.744717 7.069938 7.171759 150.7092 0.423059 0.346643 64.37578 625780.5 -949.1938 5.536251 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic 2.249486 3.053717 4.667704 1.050464 1.563868 1.426511 0.282130 1.377238 1.525695 0.042627 0.779879 0.572432 0.332940 0.659135 0.666509 0.691880 1.063228 0.862476 1.402443 1.278079 2.248585
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
5.952820 44.77519 48.08295 4.672495 4.522492 4.630895 4.969615 5.069017 5.592441 5.282690 5.426916 5.278982 5.069051 5.700617 5.777445 5.743710 5.921873 5.501275 5.041157 5.611359 67.02402
Std. Error
555.0471 79.64291 11.28132 11.66561 11.43724 0.714038
0.0259 0.0027 0.0000 0.2952 0.1199 0.1558 0.7782 0.1705 0.1292 0.9661 0.4367 0.5679 0.7396 0.5108 0.5061 0.4901 0.2894 0.3898 0.1628 0.2032 0.0260
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PAPEREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:29 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
8.440009 147.4780 166.6989 -8.092404 -7.428422 -12.61851 -10.29309 -11.73420 -10.35932 -9.885538 -9.882679 -7.962195 -6.816783 -10.49608 212.4723
0.497803 0.453021 58.90234 544709.3 -937.2615 11.11615 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 1.553032 4.100341 4.775010 -1.850356 -1.735197 -2.452656 -2.306655 -2.070720 -1.963213 -1.937350 -1.699421 -1.713368 -1.515418 -2.066808 3.465941
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
5.434535 35.96725 34.91069 4.373432 4.281026 5.144836 4.462346 5.666728 5.276719 5.102608 5.815320 4.647101 4.498287 5.078399 61.30293
Std. Error
555.0471 79.64291 11.07281 11.34730 11.18418 0.679149
0.1224 0.0001 0.0000 0.0661 0.0847 0.0153 0.0224 0.0400 0.0514 0.0545 0.0912 0.0886 0.1317 0.0404 0.0007
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PAPEREM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-240.2799 1979.049 8440.381 115.3862 48.43123 88.73622 31.66176 -15.13624 28.54098 120.3574 -82.91053 14.75843 197.1980 -12.90201 -14.34275 72.40143 -6036.215 0.619781 0.580532 1312.661 2.67E+08 -1470.035 15.79121 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.920677 2.190739 6.382982 0.839911 0.538496 0.897943 0.357732 -0.168743 0.306604 1.169176 -0.693751 0.164994 1.491110 -0.128097 -0.160941 0.829638 -3.933794
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
82.26856 903.3708 1322.326 137.3792 89.93792 98.82165 88.50697 89.69990 93.08738 102.9420 119.5105 89.44819 132.2491 100.7209 89.11792 87.26873 1534.451
Std. Error
2996.951 2026.764 17.29111 17.60219 17.41732 1.288967
0.0040 0.0300 0.0000 0.4023 0.5910 0.3706 0.7210 0.8662 0.7596 0.2441 0.4889 0.8692 0.1380 0.8982 0.8723 0.4080 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PCINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:58 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-246.5801 1847.264 8669.267 31.34461 120.2749 -24.67726 -137.2415 36.46736 98.37396 -62.53954 0.975297 -43.88866 -48.61197 -35.09206 65.46689 42.35153 50.80625 32.76202 118.6192 89.30340 -6119.424
0.624512 0.574779 1321.633 2.64E+08 -1468.958 12.55718 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.769683 2.038178 7.477844 0.344286 1.319655 -0.262743 -1.138679 0.471728 0.991036 -0.673439 0.010899 -0.368419 -0.496601 -0.309534 0.793862 0.534662 0.558284 0.391697 1.632355 1.248767 -4.429115
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
89.02830 906.3312 1159.327 91.04238 91.14119 93.92179 120.5269 77.30596 99.26372 92.86597 89.48376 119.1271 97.88947 113.3706 82.46629 79.21174 91.00436 83.64118 72.66753 71.51328 1381.636
Std. Error
2996.951 2026.764 17.32509 17.70938 17.48101 1.351115
0.0063 0.0433 0.0000 0.7311 0.1889 0.7931 0.2566 0.6378 0.3233 0.5017 0.9913 0.7131 0.6202 0.7573 0.4285 0.5937 0.5775 0.6958 0.1047 0.2137 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PCINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:29 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-342.1541 1646.010 7791.852 -184.3950 -84.07185 -166.7857 -115.5473 -94.49304 -143.0208 -62.74952 -280.3880 -160.7368 -136.2115 -265.8509 -4748.724 0.670730 0.641369 1213.745 2.31E+08 -1457.662 22.84376 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.054055 2.389066 5.931685 -1.507698 -0.851067 -1.566833 -1.466372 -0.759800 -1.109792 -0.545195 -1.780771 -1.318564 -1.399440 -1.706534 -2.955479
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
112.0327 688.9766 1313.598 122.3023 98.78406 106.4477 78.79806 124.3657 128.8718 115.0955 157.4532 121.9029 97.33286 155.7842 1606.753
Std. Error
2996.951 2026.764 17.12398 17.39847 17.23535 1.237702
0.0027 0.0181 0.0000 0.1336 0.3960 0.1192 0.1445 0.4485 0.2688 0.5864 0.0769 0.1892 0.1637 0.0899 0.0036
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PCINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:46 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-435.2038 395.6975 5952.945 95.50896 40.36005 92.09872 24.17552 35.45265 76.05098 113.9889 -18.96391 42.60696 165.8046 21.83082 13.05972 89.24340 -556.3382
0.710223 0.680310 894.7589 1.24E+08 -1404.115 23.74335 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -8.287964 0.521664 7.020923 1.067229 0.631971 1.263611 0.342443 0.543501 1.042817 1.545812 -0.236655 0.662757 1.848752 0.327379 0.192578 1.454638 -0.593450
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
52.51034 758.5288 847.8864 89.49251 63.86374 72.88535 70.59724 65.23011 72.92838 73.74042 80.13300 64.28747 89.68458 66.68368 67.81510 61.35095 937.4643
Std. Error
3740.118 1582.492 16.52459 16.83568 16.65081 1.274664
0.0000 0.6026 0.0000 0.2875 0.5283 0.2083 0.7325 0.5876 0.2987 0.1242 0.8132 0.5085 0.0664 0.7438 0.8475 0.1478 0.5537
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PERSGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:58 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-430.9765 366.6790 6124.827 -22.36483 33.64253 -65.18231 -107.1382 22.70168 20.63590 -57.81957 -6.432497 -42.43517 -44.18215 -15.28979 37.99949 7.244630 13.34021 -16.12917 37.64253 26.71717 -734.3815 0.703916 0.664699 916.3448 1.27E+08 -1405.967 17.94950 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -8.365824 0.494620 7.646211 -0.334215 0.506158 -1.043170 -1.296688 0.440567 0.314420 -0.884720 -0.113424 -0.520224 -0.665285 -0.185543 0.652022 0.135222 0.209758 -0.288662 0.666403 0.534824 -0.771439
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
51.51633 741.3344 801.0277 66.91753 66.46645 62.48483 82.62445 51.52832 65.63167 65.35355 56.71184 81.57099 66.41088 82.40561 58.27947 53.57567 63.59808 55.87567 56.48615 49.95509 951.9629
Std. Error
3740.118 1582.492 16.59263 16.97692 16.74855 1.323987
0.0000 0.6216 0.0000 0.7387 0.6135 0.2985 0.1967 0.6602 0.7536 0.3777 0.9098 0.6037 0.5069 0.8531 0.5154 0.8926 0.8341 0.7732 0.5062 0.5936 0.4417
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PERSGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:29 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-471.2732 167.0140 5837.456 -25.40384 31.36757 -6.262196 -5.085768 15.65072 -58.38027 15.27604 -165.8442 -78.32460 -61.34159 -169.3316 -122.5127
0.714960 0.689543 881.7441 1.22E+08 -1402.697 28.12860 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -5.832044 0.258154 6.023296 -0.301003 0.438158 -0.082849 -0.089724 0.174030 -0.605318 0.166615 -1.446387 -0.856618 -0.813127 -1.493548 -0.116810
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
80.80755 646.9544 969.1464 84.39730 71.58959 75.58540 56.68256 89.93111 96.44557 91.68456 114.6610 91.43475 75.43908 113.3754 1048.821
Std. Error
3740.118 1582.492 16.48485 16.75934 16.59622 1.195045
0.0000 0.7966 0.0000 0.7638 0.6619 0.9341 0.9286 0.8621 0.5458 0.8679 0.1501 0.3930 0.4174 0.1373 0.9072
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PERSGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-102.8885 70.55830 1669.680 30.07585 20.42286 28.54211 9.102020 5.333783 14.36211 29.28432 -7.068884 11.13273 37.85051 -4.684700 -4.389705 10.41223 -268.5612 0.675056 0.641513 258.1807 10331876 -1190.337 20.12534 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -4.761311 0.349817 6.038489 1.048728 0.958501 1.231805 0.409284 0.260690 0.653930 1.231938 -0.293045 0.555502 1.403804 -0.219619 -0.213569 0.582578 -0.863053
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
21.60927 201.7006 276.5063 28.67842 21.30708 23.17097 22.23890 20.46027 21.96277 23.77095 24.12218 20.04084 26.96282 21.33103 20.55399 17.87267 311.1758
Std. Error
974.4926 431.2085 14.03880 14.34989 14.16502 1.131659
0.0000 0.7270 0.0000 0.2959 0.3393 0.2199 0.6829 0.7947 0.5141 0.2198 0.7699 0.5794 0.1624 0.8265 0.8312 0.5610 0.3894
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PHARMEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:58 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-104.9330 82.69979 1709.408 -11.38647 2.788226 -22.36431 -37.50561 -4.278450 3.127546 -24.35614 -6.990988 -13.72661 -19.43475 -10.51023 9.249280 6.050695 13.29291 4.049962 25.41830 16.93533 -314.8755
0.687404 0.646001 256.5597 9939254. -1187.005 16.60260 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -4.596589 0.440142 7.301902 -0.602449 0.156044 -1.288167 -1.666613 -0.293088 0.177227 -1.308286 -0.425207 -0.623974 -1.106197 -0.494889 0.536721 0.369243 0.702836 0.226831 1.434737 1.000690 -1.123246
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
22.82844 187.8934 234.1045 18.90032 17.86820 17.36135 22.50409 14.59782 17.64716 18.61683 16.44138 21.99868 17.56898 21.23757 17.23294 16.38674 18.91323 17.85454 17.71635 16.92365 280.3264
Std. Error
974.4926 431.2085 14.04657 14.43086 14.20249 1.227821
0.0000 0.6605 0.0000 0.5478 0.8762 0.1997 0.0977 0.7699 0.8596 0.1928 0.6713 0.5336 0.2704 0.6214 0.5923 0.7125 0.4832 0.8209 0.1534 0.3186 0.2631
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PHARMEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:29 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-110.9278 14.63534 1654.777 -28.88715 -7.063380 -18.44693 -8.051354 -3.172524 -16.27952 6.337288 -41.58394 -8.511717 -8.511204 -34.97516 -177.4404 0.681381 0.652969 254.0219 10130760 -1188.646 23.98229 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -4.025392 0.081364 5.660928 -1.197733 -0.323296 -0.892936 -0.464512 -0.127047 -0.613360 0.264127 -1.316221 -0.329629 -0.393624 -1.112849 -0.547626
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.55703 179.8753 292.3155 24.11820 21.84803 20.65874 17.33293 24.97120 26.54156 23.99338 31.59343 25.82209 21.62266 31.42848 324.0173
Std. Error
974.4926 431.2085 13.99589 14.27038 14.10726 1.056062
0.0001 0.9353 0.0000 0.2328 0.7469 0.3733 0.6429 0.8991 0.5405 0.7920 0.1900 0.7421 0.6944 0.2675 0.5847
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PHARMEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-105.4367 71.43581 1664.980 30.35467 20.73707 28.72577 8.872638 5.169885 13.94561 28.99009 -7.239449 10.73784 37.10550 -5.205370 -4.944818 9.750070 -250.8646
0.677139 0.643811 258.1960 10333106 -1190.347 20.31765 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -4.866194 0.353652 6.007650 1.054213 0.961071 1.225853 0.394999 0.249335 0.630284 1.210131 -0.298613 0.530879 1.376374 -0.242368 -0.237085 0.541381 -0.800980
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
21.66719 201.9948 277.1433 28.79369 21.57704 23.43330 22.46243 20.73467 22.12590 23.95616 24.24362 20.22652 26.95887 21.47713 20.85673 18.00962 313.1969
Std. Error
978.5682 432.6228 14.03892 14.35001 14.16514 1.128054
0.0000 0.7241 0.0000 0.2934 0.3380 0.2221 0.6934 0.8034 0.5294 0.2281 0.7656 0.5963 0.1707 0.8088 0.8129 0.5890 0.4244
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PHRMCEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:58 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-107.4833 85.63506 1703.954 -11.95978 2.129917 -22.54996 -37.79971 -4.556518 2.899648 -24.60880 -7.108952 -13.73445 -19.90952 -10.98705 8.979485 5.637233 13.12612 3.892938 25.43676 16.89348 -298.3105 0.690097 0.649050 256.2902 9918385. -1186.824 16.81245 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -4.704564 0.456081 7.278150 -0.633125 0.119398 -1.297619 -1.688654 -0.311276 0.164491 -1.321835 -0.432805 -0.627942 -1.138090 -0.520128 0.522833 0.344853 0.696355 0.218494 1.439613 1.000164 -1.060247
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
22.84660 187.7630 234.1191 18.89008 17.83880 17.37795 22.38452 14.63819 17.62799 18.61715 16.42529 21.87215 17.49381 21.12373 17.17466 16.34678 18.84974 17.81714 17.66917 16.89071 281.3593
Std. Error
978.5682 432.6228 14.04447 14.42876 14.20038 1.225174
0.0000 0.6490 0.0000 0.5276 0.9051 0.1964 0.0933 0.7560 0.8696 0.1882 0.6658 0.5310 0.2569 0.6037 0.6019 0.7307 0.4873 0.8273 0.1520 0.3188 0.2907
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PHRMCEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:29 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-113.3255 16.70261 1650.957 -28.94445 -7.066980 -18.51819 -7.916158 -3.149457 -16.05869 6.790183 -41.10530 -8.149712 -8.492322 -34.21775 -162.1401
0.683167 0.654914 254.1401 10140187 -1188.726 24.18061 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -4.101975 0.092400 5.643050 -1.202831 -0.323704 -0.896820 -0.456208 -0.126502 -0.604303 0.282930 -1.297769 -0.314079 -0.389239 -1.089219 -0.498282
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.62705 180.7642 292.5647 24.06361 21.83158 20.64873 17.35209 24.89643 26.57390 23.99953 31.67382 25.94793 21.81775 31.41494 325.3983
Std. Error
978.5682 432.6228 13.99682 14.27131 14.10819 1.052123
0.0001 0.9265 0.0000 0.2309 0.7466 0.3712 0.6489 0.8995 0.5465 0.7776 0.1963 0.7539 0.6976 0.2777 0.6190
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PHRMCEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-543.2634 652.5856 8836.943 128.9623 59.63732 144.9926 53.21252 61.54321 134.9782 191.9650 -16.42993 86.45328 264.3371 63.49270 44.93376 152.3639 -1984.787 0.690927 0.659023 1327.269 2.73E+08 -1471.939 21.65624 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -6.987091 0.585191 7.073021 0.991900 0.635441 1.351588 0.516126 0.623636 1.217809 1.710455 -0.135560 0.870479 1.964248 0.649326 0.454163 1.729389 -1.418770
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
77.75244 1115.166 1249.387 130.0154 93.85193 107.2757 103.0998 98.68457 110.8370 112.2304 121.2008 99.31687 134.5742 97.78253 98.93755 88.10274 1398.950
Std. Error
4860.451 2272.984 17.31324 17.62433 17.43946 1.241795
0.0000 0.5593 0.0000 0.3228 0.5261 0.1785 0.6065 0.5338 0.2251 0.0892 0.8923 0.3854 0.0513 0.5171 0.6503 0.0857 0.1580
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PRSNLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:58 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-532.4721 549.9677 9138.573 -27.42278 58.66532 -91.37754 -142.6757 34.31466 38.53636 -78.86769 1.455869 -62.74010 -52.96523 -20.59309 60.36591 9.107299 12.56372 -23.59599 43.39582 24.60349 -2261.107
0.678170 0.635543 1372.206 2.84E+08 -1475.417 15.90957 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -7.006594 0.504037 7.486379 -0.269363 0.574088 -0.974866 -1.177340 0.457884 0.396343 -0.784643 0.017173 -0.522719 -0.540095 -0.166206 0.714166 0.118467 0.136174 -0.288476 0.531039 0.334096 -1.563714
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
75.99585 1091.125 1220.693 101.8060 102.1887 93.73339 121.1849 74.94179 97.22977 100.5141 84.77613 120.0265 98.06656 123.9014 84.52648 76.87602 92.26190 81.79546 81.71870 73.64206 1445.985
Std. Error
4860.451 2272.984 17.40020 17.78449 17.55611 1.277758
0.0000 0.6150 0.0000 0.7880 0.5668 0.3312 0.2409 0.6477 0.6924 0.4339 0.9863 0.6019 0.5899 0.8682 0.4762 0.9059 0.8919 0.7734 0.5962 0.7388 0.1200
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PRSNLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:29 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-588.4223 289.0243 8757.904 -24.56921 75.00494 16.77386 22.52900 42.64402 -66.12717 26.93912 -245.9158 -112.5155 -93.53542 -247.5595 -1443.347 0.691727 0.664238 1317.080 2.72E+08 -1471.716 25.16354 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -5.008859 0.307310 6.062867 -0.199788 0.713532 0.155380 0.278057 0.321793 -0.465610 0.201612 -1.462767 -0.831052 -0.828201 -1.463858 -0.909442
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
117.4763 940.4984 1444.515 122.9762 105.1178 107.9538 81.02302 132.5200 142.0228 133.6185 168.1169 135.3893 112.9380 169.1144 1587.068
Std. Error
4860.451 2272.984 17.28739 17.56188 17.39876 1.175461
0.0000 0.7590 0.0000 0.8419 0.4766 0.8767 0.7813 0.7480 0.6421 0.8405 0.1455 0.4072 0.4088 0.1452 0.3645
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PRSNLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-172.4102 -485.0244 2538.670 47.21655 36.20720 81.65355 41.27595 71.56163 55.42516 78.90424 19.33482 69.96128 129.0041 70.78369 107.9711 139.2162 1410.159
0.501733 0.450299 623.9318 60340079 -1342.107 9.754880 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.875767 -0.801464 5.421786 0.820900 0.747980 1.845645 0.809394 1.347548 1.083385 1.289392 0.327797 1.224842 1.835274 0.989987 1.312222 1.644981 2.206848
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
59.95276 605.1731 468.2351 57.51804 48.40667 44.24120 50.99610 53.10507 51.15924 61.19493 58.98422 57.11863 70.29146 71.49959 82.28115 84.63090 638.9925
Std. Error
2616.776 841.5380 15.80356 16.11465 15.92978 0.530924
0.0046 0.4241 0.0000 0.4130 0.4556 0.0669 0.4195 0.1798 0.2803 0.1992 0.7435 0.2225 0.0684 0.3237 0.1914 0.1020 0.0288
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PUBLSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:58 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-191.7421 -812.2559 2689.260 -6.136145 12.35672 -14.35229 3.843655 48.13555 46.49261 39.78579 54.47151 46.71928 15.59774 32.41174 70.63318 87.68954 65.80369 68.59434 87.76448 74.25895 1633.080 0.514546 0.450248 623.9607 58788367 -1339.866 8.002462 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.987857 -1.255067 6.598356 -0.131786 0.271311 -0.340100 0.077517 1.060825 1.082807 0.815614 1.153302 0.796183 0.316779 0.571405 1.269326 1.496846 1.123343 1.214825 1.601480 1.508247 2.277014
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
64.17377 647.1813 407.5652 46.56138 45.54444 42.20016 49.58480 45.37559 42.93710 48.78016 47.23092 58.67907 49.23848 56.72287 55.64622 58.58288 58.57846 56.46438 54.80212 49.23527 717.2025
Std. Error
2616.776 841.5380 15.82402 16.20831 15.97994 0.661425
0.0033 0.2114 0.0000 0.8953 0.7865 0.7343 0.9383 0.2905 0.2806 0.4160 0.2506 0.4272 0.7518 0.5686 0.2063 0.1365 0.2631 0.2263 0.1114 0.1336 0.0242
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PUBLSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:30 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-175.5347 -711.6633 2656.264 10.23001 50.49679 28.54028 -0.936317 12.15417 -50.03688 13.46574 -73.74119 -14.18664 -21.61437 -70.87887 1493.450
0.459047 0.410809 645.9545 65509379 -1349.175 9.516307 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.427685 -1.102577 4.598925 0.166692 0.841293 0.437722 -0.016899 0.200517 -0.835392 0.229870 -1.191045 -0.269532 -0.452844 -1.380112 2.099153
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
72.30538 645.4547 577.5836 61.37079 60.02286 65.20188 55.40533 60.61406 59.89633 58.57985 61.91303 52.63428 47.73028 51.35732 711.4539
Std. Error
2616.776 841.5380 15.86251 16.13700 15.97387 0.514473
0.0163 0.2719 0.0000 0.8678 0.4015 0.6622 0.9865 0.8413 0.4048 0.8185 0.2354 0.7879 0.6513 0.1695 0.0374
Prob.
Dependent Variable: PUBLSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:47 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
6.565635 -0.232105 -44.02405 0.075504 0.257129 -0.050664 0.120300 -0.029770 0.080341 -0.552841 0.371497 -0.138784 -0.993053 -0.159376 -0.323185 -0.897492 61.09515 0.471518 0.416965 15.05100 35112.54 -701.4759 8.643291 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 4.273419 -0.025905 -3.556816 0.042335 0.144494 -0.027896 0.067652 -0.017139 0.047195 -0.324304 0.231795 -0.091756 -0.600324 -0.100901 -0.208464 -0.636099 3.538767
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
1.536389 8.959892 12.37738 1.783486 1.779516 1.816195 1.778227 1.736954 1.702320 1.704700 1.602699 1.512527 1.654196 1.579535 1.550316 1.410932 17.26453
Std. Error
45.26071 19.71141 8.354371 8.665460 8.480588 0.268751
0.0000 0.9794 0.0005 0.9663 0.8853 0.9778 0.9462 0.9863 0.9624 0.7461 0.8170 0.9270 0.5492 0.9198 0.8351 0.5257 0.0005
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RECSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:58 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
6.555410 -0.792293 -43.82123 1.074928 0.130910 0.947837 0.952335 0.234846 -0.487239 -0.119784 -0.516746 -0.073920 0.345635 0.421113 -0.830496 0.018627 0.257749 0.264894 0.179326 0.861813 61.55688
0.479087 0.410092 15.13945 34609.64 -700.2352 6.943775 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 4.261131 -0.103938 -3.669169 0.984799 0.105695 0.783237 0.757141 0.194458 -0.418230 -0.099247 -0.440160 -0.066411 0.317167 0.381232 -0.775570 0.015730 0.227910 0.236637 0.162432 0.770634 3.833329
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
1.538420 7.622771 11.94309 1.091520 1.238570 1.210153 1.257804 1.207692 1.165004 1.206921 1.173995 1.113061 1.089756 1.104610 1.070820 1.184178 1.130927 1.119407 1.104008 1.118317 16.05833
Std. Error
45.26071 19.71141 8.386456 8.770743 8.542372 0.273075
0.0000 0.9174 0.0003 0.3263 0.9160 0.4347 0.4501 0.8461 0.6764 0.9211 0.6605 0.9471 0.7516 0.7036 0.4392 0.9875 0.8200 0.8133 0.8712 0.4421 0.0002
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RECSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:30 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
6.383937 0.611214 -46.06647 -0.208734 -0.768328 0.037017 -0.431935 -0.412843 -0.123568 -0.779632 0.815801 -0.456430 -0.742692 0.409299 62.97334 0.475040 0.428228 14.90490 34878.50 -700.9007 10.14789 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic 3.895731 0.070734 -3.432295 -0.171112 -0.619480 0.031349 -0.371457 -0.350279 -0.102666 -0.648641 0.598199 -0.345888 -0.568682 0.291594 3.256975
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
1.638701 8.641004 13.42148 1.219868 1.240279 1.180797 1.162815 1.178611 1.203590 1.201947 1.363761 1.319591 1.305988 1.403663 19.33492
Std. Error
45.26071 19.71141 8.324427 8.598918 8.435795 0.273501
0.0001 0.9437 0.0008 0.8644 0.5365 0.9750 0.7108 0.7266 0.9184 0.5175 0.5506 0.7299 0.5704 0.7710 0.0014
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RECSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
48.82249 -8173.933 5666.126 198.2549 78.68787 208.9062 6.609886 184.8879 290.0412 209.0950 136.2471 229.0959 109.2288 82.35335 46.10886 279.3593 10102.81
0.286703 0.213072 2555.460 1.01E+09 -1584.617 3.893793 0.000004
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.174395 -2.536009 3.184208 0.754518 0.338159 0.886948 0.026854 0.763226 1.238896 0.916120 0.603388 1.056055 0.447939 0.329224 0.165121 1.051770 3.945866
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
279.9539 3223.148 1779.446 262.7570 232.6948 235.5338 246.1455 242.2453 234.1126 228.2397 225.8035 216.9356 243.8474 250.1440 279.2433 265.6087 2560.353
Std. Error
7445.297 2880.724 18.62346 18.93455 18.74967 0.505716
0.8618 0.0122 0.0018 0.4517 0.7357 0.3765 0.9786 0.4465 0.2173 0.3610 0.5471 0.2926 0.6548 0.7424 0.8691 0.2945 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: REINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:58 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
75.54265 -7576.272 5893.230 -390.0058 -267.6380 -396.9837 -322.3280 -175.2097 -272.1911 -229.4597 -92.92399 -174.5805 -310.8127 -200.8014 -130.2377 -137.5100 -6.151911 -96.85046 107.8984 30.89333 9145.257 0.381824 0.299947 2410.279 8.77E+08 -1572.309 4.663355 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.297097 -2.340135 3.652290 -1.859997 -1.393274 -2.070962 -1.635306 -0.942015 -1.691531 -1.272372 -0.474045 -0.837655 -1.606382 -0.951069 -0.641284 -0.645493 -0.026852 -0.484070 0.504840 0.163923 3.190816
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
254.2689 3237.537 1613.571 209.6809 192.0928 191.6905 197.1056 185.9947 160.9141 180.3401 196.0237 208.4158 193.4862 211.1322 203.0890 213.0312 229.1017 200.0751 213.7279 188.4622 2866.119
Std. Error
7445.297 2880.724 18.52684 18.91113 18.68276 0.533193
0.7668 0.0206 0.0004 0.0648 0.1656 0.0401 0.1041 0.3477 0.0928 0.2052 0.6362 0.4035 0.1103 0.3431 0.5223 0.5196 0.9786 0.6290 0.6144 0.8700 0.0017
Prob.
Dependent Variable: REINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:30 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
136.4436 -8455.867 6757.229 33.34266 10.13433 88.17362 55.16331 198.7397 23.23989 265.5348 -19.57550 106.0925 97.98409 0.257431 8942.710
0.274236 0.209518 2561.225 1.03E+09 -1586.107 4.237407 0.000003
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.447824 -2.764538 3.133592 0.157457 0.048838 0.384605 0.262586 0.809645 0.094349 1.084396 -0.085746 0.522012 0.456898 0.001408 3.654505
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
304.6813 3058.691 2156.385 211.7569 207.5093 229.2578 210.0773 245.4652 246.3170 244.8689 228.2950 203.2379 214.4552 182.8027 2447.037
Std. Error
7445.297 2880.724 18.61753 18.89202 18.72890 0.544572
0.6549 0.0064 0.0021 0.8751 0.9611 0.7011 0.7932 0.4194 0.9250 0.2799 0.9318 0.6024 0.6484 0.9989 0.0004
Prob.
Dependent Variable: REINSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-10.91080 231.9933 430.5300 5.447796 2.383936 2.203161 -0.646985 -5.294853 -1.989807 4.665580 -7.895200 -5.400921 6.124030 -6.713545 -6.419136 -2.813264 -263.8643 0.503020 0.451719 93.00121 1340630. -1014.717 9.805240 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.437682 3.308166 5.580675 0.592533 0.357431 0.307007 -0.100195 -0.752072 -0.294519 0.654985 -0.928064 -0.801133 0.670649 -0.906403 -0.939080 -0.413538 -2.801347
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
7.589160 70.12747 77.14657 9.194081 6.669645 7.176260 6.457278 7.040351 6.756118 7.123182 8.507175 6.741608 9.131497 7.406802 6.835555 6.802918 94.19193
Std. Error
335.1275 125.5992 11.99671 12.30780 12.12292 0.969761
0.1525 0.0012 0.0000 0.5544 0.7213 0.7593 0.9203 0.4531 0.7688 0.5134 0.3548 0.4243 0.5034 0.3661 0.3492 0.6798 0.0057
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RITDVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:59 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-12.10864 221.4582 440.4057 9.477066 13.47809 4.936815 -4.136860 4.854286 9.394935 -4.572450 -0.561686 -2.266380 -0.167842 0.483359 4.764505 4.894842 5.294118 4.343166 8.495315 8.424952 -257.8121
0.526766 0.464086 91.94639 1276575. -1010.506 8.404039 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.558251 2.976745 6.699466 1.388612 2.014632 0.704830 -0.492811 0.783950 1.321341 -0.690657 -0.081425 -0.280056 -0.024798 0.063345 0.735311 0.755398 0.741209 0.661398 1.450740 1.391523 -2.997376
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
7.770666 74.39610 65.73743 6.824847 6.690100 7.004267 8.394420 6.192084 7.110151 6.620440 6.898183 8.092606 6.768354 7.630634 6.479577 6.479821 7.142542 6.566644 5.855848 6.054482 86.01258
Std. Error
335.1275 125.5992 11.99426 12.37855 12.15018 1.005296
0.1213 0.0034 0.0000 0.1670 0.0457 0.4820 0.6229 0.4343 0.1884 0.4908 0.9352 0.7798 0.9802 0.9496 0.4633 0.4512 0.4597 0.5094 0.1489 0.1661 0.0032
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RITDVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:30 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-19.59427 220.2182 365.6716 -15.03514 -9.270950 -15.84887 -11.03868 -9.237829 -8.413069 -7.115322 -18.04363 -12.34156 -10.63310 -19.25871 -158.6350 0.593326 0.557062 83.59078 1097025. -997.4706 16.36133 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.644083 3.998541 5.635651 -2.094999 -1.579305 -2.316058 -2.039172 -1.124957 -1.087842 -1.016357 -2.060230 -1.761756 -1.745720 -2.100865 -1.586833
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
7.410610 55.07465 64.88543 7.176680 5.870272 6.843036 5.413315 8.211717 7.733726 7.000809 8.758065 7.005258 6.090953 9.167038 99.96954
Std. Error
335.1275 125.5992 11.77291 12.04740 11.88428 0.960740
0.0090 0.0001 0.0000 0.0378 0.1163 0.0218 0.0431 0.2623 0.2783 0.3110 0.0410 0.0801 0.0828 0.0373 0.1146
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RITDVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-31.95427 700.3244 1622.694 19.46588 10.22298 12.79764 10.23815 -3.132547 6.281989 23.86690 -19.54041 -0.084602 37.56894 -4.967551 -5.244227 10.44549 -1446.959
0.573276 0.529227 288.0914 12864480 -1209.191 13.01450 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.675517 3.402511 6.117531 0.666324 0.508480 0.621746 0.539309 -0.145970 0.296169 1.078850 -0.717166 -0.003899 1.280448 -0.218996 -0.263410 0.485184 -4.641725
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
19.07129 205.8257 265.2531 29.21383 20.10499 20.58339 18.98382 21.46016 21.21079 22.12254 27.24669 21.69613 29.34047 22.68329 19.90900 21.52890 311.7288
Std. Error
666.8550 419.8791 14.25804 14.56913 14.38425 1.142015
0.0958 0.0008 0.0000 0.5062 0.6118 0.5350 0.5904 0.8841 0.7675 0.2823 0.4744 0.9969 0.2023 0.8269 0.7926 0.6282 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RITRTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:59 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-33.53964 650.1555 1681.356 25.79412 39.71325 8.233266 -18.41366 15.04231 28.38691 -16.69518 -2.565922 -8.926369 -1.248687 3.485752 20.76290 13.03213 15.36210 10.10230 24.54990 18.11737 -1451.481 0.589197 0.534786 286.3852 12384486 -1205.921 10.82865 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.704036 3.078049 7.273345 1.301934 1.818625 0.400241 -0.716267 0.839533 1.351809 -0.789403 -0.116576 -0.336598 -0.061129 0.154925 1.142776 0.737140 0.747900 0.552222 1.481041 1.138498 -5.250562
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
19.68247 211.2232 231.1669 19.81217 21.83696 20.57075 25.70783 17.91748 20.99919 21.14913 22.01080 26.51940 20.42724 22.49963 18.16884 17.67932 20.54033 18.29390 16.57611 15.91339 276.4430
Std. Error
666.8550 419.8791 14.26652 14.65081 14.42244 1.200527
0.0904 0.0025 0.0000 0.1949 0.0710 0.6895 0.4749 0.4025 0.1785 0.4311 0.9074 0.7369 0.9513 0.8771 0.2549 0.4622 0.4557 0.5816 0.1407 0.2567 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RITRTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:30 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-56.31198 635.2357 1460.234 -39.61944 -21.23839 -39.53015 -23.16525 -22.36488 -26.49318 -20.04574 -58.81195 -39.74854 -34.46801 -62.69260 -1144.634
0.637976 0.605693 263.6582 10913955 -1195.050 19.76234 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.547376 4.149260 5.836506 -1.612827 -1.099245 -1.863284 -1.380371 -0.793140 -1.000064 -0.829946 -1.941815 -1.639425 -1.777863 -1.980434 -3.392563
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
22.10587 153.0962 250.1897 24.56521 19.32089 21.21531 16.78190 28.19789 26.49149 24.15308 30.28710 24.24541 19.38733 31.65600 337.3952
Std. Error
666.8550 419.8791 14.07035 14.34484 14.18172 1.112408
0.0118 0.0001 0.0000 0.1088 0.2733 0.0643 0.1694 0.4289 0.3188 0.4078 0.0539 0.1031 0.0774 0.0494 0.0009
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RITRTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-20.07960 347.7052 870.2106 9.828623 4.109518 7.943261 4.153275 -1.943984 2.354609 12.42830 -8.332519 0.117700 22.82085 -1.037240 0.121750 7.028195 -687.1989 0.554890 0.508943 159.9221 3964136. -1107.954 12.07679 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.738458 3.120505 5.051758 0.624949 0.401388 0.687126 0.416402 -0.171907 0.237208 1.080603 -0.583422 0.010652 1.447534 -0.083892 0.010923 0.596771 -3.436549
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.55023 111.4259 172.2590 15.72708 10.23826 11.56013 9.974191 11.30832 9.926350 11.50126 14.28214 11.04931 15.76533 12.36403 11.14666 11.77704 199.9678
Std. Error
406.4509 228.2142 13.08086 13.39195 13.20707 1.026733
0.0841 0.0022 0.0000 0.5329 0.6887 0.4930 0.6777 0.8637 0.8128 0.2816 0.5605 0.9915 0.1498 0.9333 0.9913 0.5515 0.0008
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RLDEVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:59 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-20.79226 313.1371 904.7683 13.68988 21.68849 6.600565 -9.445639 9.032503 16.06993 -7.124953 0.511055 -2.523659 -1.849093 0.809079 10.55571 7.620548 7.741753 6.747868 13.90885 11.12073 -685.8632
0.571105 0.514298 159.0478 3819727. -1104.762 10.05338 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.702229 2.743332 6.012691 1.259283 1.873542 0.537857 -0.625635 0.820538 1.393330 -0.605285 0.041142 -0.180944 -0.158040 0.065668 1.081471 0.750168 0.709528 0.656573 1.517688 1.194119 -3.894479
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.21473 114.1448 150.4764 10.87116 11.57620 12.27197 15.09767 11.00802 11.53347 11.77124 12.42171 13.94718 11.70014 12.32071 9.760510 10.15846 10.91113 10.27740 9.164498 9.312921 176.1117
Std. Error
406.4509 228.2142 13.09026 13.47455 13.24617 1.085173
0.0908 0.0068 0.0000 0.2099 0.0629 0.5915 0.5325 0.4132 0.1656 0.5459 0.9672 0.8567 0.8746 0.9477 0.2812 0.4543 0.4791 0.5125 0.1312 0.2343 0.0001
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RLDEVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:30 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-36.26366 302.7448 756.9553 -29.30726 -21.17415 -30.43490 -22.99234 -21.01732 -22.45309 -16.45662 -35.47760 -24.15909 -20.95783 -35.00483 -479.5587 0.668774 0.639238 137.0734 2949889. -1082.539 22.64262 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.933644 4.006204 5.390302 -2.121067 -1.909436 -2.398903 -2.156515 -1.473120 -1.690505 -1.406179 -2.207299 -1.900509 -2.024385 -2.184251 -2.587579
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.36130 75.56900 140.4291 13.81723 11.08922 12.68700 10.66180 14.26722 13.28188 11.70307 16.07286 12.71190 10.35269 16.02601 185.3310
Std. Error
406.4509 228.2142 12.76208 13.03657 12.87345 1.074069
0.0039 0.0001 0.0000 0.0355 0.0580 0.0176 0.0326 0.1427 0.0929 0.1616 0.0287 0.0592 0.0446 0.0304 0.0106
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RLDEVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-18.01751 346.0051 857.6963 9.971530 4.936199 7.945351 4.817315 -1.440631 3.222766 12.95596 -7.794937 0.404182 22.30627 -1.180661 -0.500365 6.597992 -685.8842
0.558531 0.512960 155.9552 3769912. -1103.633 12.25627 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.638378 3.093222 5.412388 0.642893 0.487207 0.711872 0.496978 -0.130806 0.321132 1.151762 -0.553153 0.037262 1.442163 -0.097567 -0.046365 0.576933 -3.700479
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
10.99716 111.8591 158.4691 15.51041 10.13162 11.16121 9.693225 11.01347 10.03563 11.24882 14.09184 10.84714 15.46723 12.10103 10.79190 11.43632 185.3501
Std. Error
402.3036 223.4690 13.03062 13.34171 13.15684 1.055085
0.1034 0.0023 0.0000 0.5212 0.6268 0.4776 0.6199 0.8961 0.7485 0.2512 0.5810 0.9703 0.1513 0.9224 0.9631 0.5648 0.0003
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RLESTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:59 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-18.57313 311.3232 893.5019 14.06703 21.78132 6.464475 -8.627700 9.117567 15.74937 -6.642250 0.198148 -3.627701 -1.668669 1.076614 10.10359 7.303767 7.699501 5.890272 13.54321 10.83928 -686.3742 0.574647 0.518309 155.0964 3632290. -1100.435 10.19995 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.592367 2.749235 6.436323 1.317172 1.926929 0.549296 -0.595969 0.878180 1.394062 -0.585444 0.016427 -0.262100 -0.145673 0.087592 1.049803 0.736039 0.711392 0.584593 1.505838 1.193314 -4.197462
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.66385 113.2399 138.8218 10.67973 11.30364 11.76864 14.47677 10.38234 11.29747 11.34567 12.06216 13.84090 11.45491 12.29121 9.624268 9.923075 10.82315 10.07585 8.993801 9.083339 163.5213
Std. Error
402.3036 223.4690 13.03994 13.42423 13.19586 1.118097
0.1134 0.0067 0.0000 0.1898 0.0559 0.5836 0.5521 0.3812 0.1653 0.5591 0.9869 0.7936 0.8844 0.9303 0.2955 0.4628 0.4779 0.5597 0.1342 0.2346 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RLESTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:30 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-33.61671 302.9768 750.5231 -27.61912 -18.54772 -27.96162 -21.00673 -19.42116 -20.60299 -15.43759 -34.78829 -23.86676 -20.61610 -35.13245 -488.0968
0.665010 0.635138 134.9837 2860635. -1079.897 22.26220 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.817833 4.005155 5.619146 -2.051067 -1.755200 -2.326282 -2.136330 -1.372020 -1.558339 -1.294504 -2.203752 -1.921914 -2.059952 -2.200085 -2.750562
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.92999 75.64670 133.5653 13.46573 10.56729 12.01988 9.833089 14.15516 13.22112 11.92548 15.78594 12.41823 10.00805 15.96868 177.4535
Std. Error
402.3036 223.4690 12.73136 13.00585 12.84272 1.089715
0.0055 0.0001 0.0000 0.0419 0.0812 0.0213 0.0342 0.1720 0.1212 0.1974 0.0290 0.0564 0.0411 0.0293 0.0066
Prob.
Dependent Variable: RLESTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-295.5770 -2746.975 2345.280 90.35872 39.20320 152.9410 40.23298 153.4945 101.0834 109.7639 77.10757 164.2071 184.9446 153.7772 144.3084 212.5391 5325.471 0.223135 0.142942 1724.933 4.61E+08 -1517.014 2.782485 0.000584
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable -2.055677 -2.100345 3.097683 0.634534 0.278282 1.063598 0.262791 0.848104 0.559713 0.568569 0.387078 0.882753 0.861515 0.640230 0.583401 0.906842 3.385535
t-Statistic
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
143.7857 1307.868 757.1076 142.4018 140.8759 143.7959 153.0990 180.9854 180.5987 193.0531 199.2041 186.0171 214.6737 240.1907 247.3573 234.3729 1573.007
Std. Error
3569.529 1863.233 17.83737 18.14846 17.96359 0.181960
0.0415 0.0373 0.0023 0.5267 0.7812 0.2892 0.7931 0.3977 0.5765 0.5705 0.6992 0.3787 0.3903 0.5230 0.5605 0.3659 0.0009
Prob.
Dependent Variable: SFTCSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:59 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000) No d.f. adjustment for standard errors & covariance
Coefficient
-330.5793 -3247.464 2553.150 -46.02352 -16.66335 -47.60130 41.99897 88.87558 -12.85621 67.37604 22.38370 11.07235 -8.907452 87.81136 114.3695 122.3238 134.4666 130.3423 144.2339 129.6264 5705.501
0.229068 0.126958 1740.944 4.58E+08 -1516.354 2.243342 0.003167
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.993520 -1.969902 3.072245 -0.382604 -0.133226 -0.416306 0.304564 0.628210 -0.098414 0.420158 0.141922 0.066876 -0.061866 0.585902 0.730675 0.772064 0.902026 0.914334 1.077259 1.032350 2.949678
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
165.8269 1648.541 831.0374 120.2903 125.0760 114.3420 137.8987 141.4743 130.6343 160.3587 157.7179 165.5655 143.9791 149.8737 156.5259 158.4374 149.0717 142.5543 133.8897 125.5644 1934.279
Std. Error
3569.529 1863.233 17.87621 18.26050 18.03213 0.231306
0.0480 0.0507 0.0025 0.7026 0.8942 0.6778 0.7611 0.5308 0.9217 0.6750 0.8873 0.9468 0.9508 0.5588 0.4661 0.4413 0.3685 0.3620 0.2831 0.3036 0.0037
Prob.
Dependent Variable: SFTCSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:31 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-304.6599 -3119.531 2532.912 86.36310 61.18667 83.94143 -29.28421 25.36695 -123.4910 26.18864 -91.98514 -15.68747 -60.10089 -151.0363 5479.784 0.204864 0.133961 1733.948 4.72E+08 -1519.013 2.889328 0.000658
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.841546 -2.059410 2.657723 0.568903 0.401993 0.549068 -0.223208 0.204888 -0.996813 0.222965 -0.783857 -0.136477 -0.522974 -1.565239 3.058227
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
165.4370 1514.769 953.0386 151.8063 152.2084 152.8799 131.1968 123.8087 123.8859 117.4563 117.3494 114.9461 114.9213 96.49408 1791.817
Std. Error
3569.529 1863.233 17.83736 18.11185 17.94873 0.201728
0.0674 0.0411 0.0087 0.5702 0.6882 0.5837 0.8237 0.8379 0.3204 0.8239 0.4343 0.8916 0.6017 0.1195 0.0026
Prob.
Dependent Variable: SFTCSEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
24.89696 407.6992 1167.437 11.36992 8.472864 14.09614 9.679074 1.673291 10.76906 20.88347 -8.262118 6.112492 31.77315 -3.155543 -0.385302 5.477926 -1337.750
0.537196 0.489423 201.7776 6310702. -1147.940 11.24470 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 2.173284 2.793767 8.109055 0.563321 0.642225 0.989369 0.810296 0.117705 0.670338 1.356568 -0.409962 0.418529 1.508872 -0.195870 -0.027602 0.409087 -7.367472
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
11.45592 145.9317 143.9671 20.18373 13.19299 14.24760 11.94511 14.21596 16.06511 15.39434 20.15340 14.60470 21.05756 16.11040 13.95905 13.39060 181.5752
Std. Error
276.5099 282.3855 13.54581 13.85690 13.67203 1.240583
0.0313 0.0059 0.0000 0.5740 0.5217 0.3240 0.4190 0.9065 0.5036 0.1769 0.6824 0.6761 0.1334 0.8450 0.9780 0.6830 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: STEELEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:59 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
26.91870 375.2094 1219.190 19.08597 29.27668 4.600876 -13.90425 9.493505 18.00016 -7.889398 3.594755 -2.338281 0.170494 4.474374 8.459418 0.702159 1.506260 -4.728651 7.031031 6.782814 -1367.992 0.545088 0.484834 202.6823 6203097. -1146.461 9.046601 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic 2.177748 2.541952 8.424475 1.231449 1.993376 0.341005 -0.728883 0.822112 1.162664 -0.541808 0.257170 -0.124236 0.012447 0.253921 0.654222 0.058989 0.099287 -0.369843 0.595567 0.612985 -7.504531
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
12.36079 147.6068 144.7200 15.49879 14.68698 13.49212 19.07611 11.54771 15.48183 14.56123 13.97815 18.82122 13.69786 17.62110 12.93049 11.90324 15.17075 12.78555 11.80561 11.06523 182.2889
Std. Error
276.5099 282.3855 13.57513 13.95942 13.73104 1.316109
0.0310 0.0120 0.0000 0.2201 0.0480 0.7336 0.4672 0.4123 0.2468 0.5887 0.7974 0.9013 0.9901 0.7999 0.5140 0.9530 0.9210 0.7120 0.5524 0.5408 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: STEELEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:31 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
6.531060 355.2746 1055.499 -22.87244 -7.346337 -22.72141 -17.06458 -16.51269 -22.28707 -13.70559 -45.92210 -29.72002 -26.71855 -52.27249 -1117.953
0.613983 0.579561 183.1023 5263653. -1132.338 17.83699 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.489026 3.608316 6.599782 -1.394574 -0.501779 -1.708243 -1.709126 -0.897093 -1.088810 -0.855826 -2.370518 -1.934298 -2.248002 -2.091534 -5.111559
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
13.35524 98.45996 159.9293 16.40102 14.64058 13.30104 9.984387 18.40689 20.46921 16.01446 19.37218 15.36475 11.88546 24.99242 218.7108
Std. Error
276.5099 282.3855 13.34114 13.61563 13.45251 1.208051
0.6255 0.0004 0.0000 0.1651 0.6165 0.0896 0.0894 0.3710 0.2779 0.3934 0.0190 0.0549 0.0260 0.0381 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: STEELEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:48 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-49.02393 47.46422 970.5964 24.57279 15.98710 20.02834 4.566131 0.527142 8.543247 15.87906 -5.894444 5.208792 23.89856 -5.706897 -6.415109 4.965334 -154.5413 0.514496 0.464379 201.0495 6265242. -1147.318 10.26598 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.692168 0.316175 6.525003 1.319523 1.145572 1.359884 0.326763 0.035465 0.542099 0.968046 -0.330888 0.334876 1.194729 -0.320757 -0.383472 0.319003 -0.741820
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
18.20984 150.1200 148.7503 18.62248 13.95556 14.72798 13.97381 14.86366 15.75957 16.40320 17.81399 15.55437 20.00333 17.79197 16.72901 15.56519 208.3272
Std. Error
617.7131 274.7099 13.53858 13.84967 13.66480 0.719341
0.0079 0.7523 0.0000 0.1889 0.2537 0.1758 0.7443 0.9718 0.5885 0.3345 0.7412 0.7382 0.2340 0.7488 0.7019 0.7502 0.4593
Prob.
Dependent Variable: SUPSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:59 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-49.61745 35.05026 1007.634 2.180800 11.01925 -2.238062 -16.20339 2.389399 7.088157 -9.333547 -1.993857 -8.329080 -11.31106 -6.339244 5.484991 4.262701 8.445000 4.012104 16.41258 13.51406 -178.4136
0.512927 0.448414 204.0239 6285489. -1147.596 7.950748 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.431219 0.237501 7.308543 0.146142 0.751196 -0.150578 -0.917700 0.178632 0.453392 -0.596319 -0.131245 -0.457021 -0.671514 -0.331004 0.326783 0.258740 0.491879 0.241763 1.012212 0.846796 -0.867919
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.40847 147.5791 137.8707 14.92250 14.66894 14.86319 17.65652 13.37606 15.63363 15.65194 15.19192 18.22470 16.84412 19.15156 16.78479 16.47485 17.16887 16.59518 16.21456 15.95905 205.5646
Std. Error
617.7131 274.7099 13.58832 13.97261 13.74424 0.767509
0.0162 0.8126 0.0000 0.8840 0.4537 0.8805 0.3602 0.8585 0.6509 0.5519 0.8958 0.6483 0.5029 0.7411 0.7443 0.7962 0.6235 0.8093 0.3131 0.3984 0.3868
Prob.
Dependent Variable: SUPSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:31 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-63.97156 3.219700 879.2885 -26.55356 -18.16863 -26.05485 -25.99839 -17.41898 -27.47886 -13.28095 -36.18951 -22.22888 -16.02417 -33.88333 25.62230 0.576455 0.538687 186.5831 5465682. -1135.577 15.26291 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.150064 0.026175 5.628207 -1.520229 -1.148603 -1.594069 -1.815829 -0.963993 -1.550994 -0.751763 -1.792369 -1.421631 -1.202762 -1.803239 0.134315
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.30802 123.0070 156.2289 17.46682 15.81803 16.34487 14.31764 18.06961 17.71694 17.66640 20.19088 15.63619 13.32281 18.79026 190.7627
Std. Error
617.7131 274.7099 13.37880 13.65329 13.49017 0.663669
0.0020 0.9792 0.0000 0.1305 0.2525 0.1129 0.0713 0.3365 0.1229 0.4533 0.0750 0.1571 0.2309 0.0733 0.8933
Prob.
Dependent Variable: SUPSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-182.9613 -6499.688 6488.345 224.7841 55.43232 238.2902 93.58642 399.0843 334.7563 344.1088 334.3853 589.1613 675.2381 633.8662 645.8835 761.1207 6061.342
0.399822 0.337868 2577.850 1.03E+09 -1586.118 6.453544 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.707462 -1.922709 3.371770 0.990479 0.226334 1.153494 0.387758 1.813571 1.485486 1.355584 1.280035 2.196445 2.226884 2.089491 2.002920 2.264805 2.714396
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
258.6164 3380.485 1924.315 226.9448 244.9140 206.5811 241.3525 220.0545 225.3513 253.8455 261.2314 268.2340 303.2210 303.3591 322.4709 336.0646 2233.035
Std. Error
4799.817 3168.001 18.64090 18.95199 18.76712 0.391581
0.4803 0.0564 0.0009 0.3235 0.8212 0.2505 0.6987 0.0717 0.1394 0.1772 0.2024 0.0295 0.0274 0.0383 0.0469 0.0249 0.0074
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TECHDEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:59 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-217.4553 -8249.404 7464.832 -42.27189 77.75380 -23.20791 100.8994 182.3652 50.33177 170.2292 204.0078 141.1712 50.70814 109.4876 246.3272 305.7872 311.8152 293.5863 312.2056 230.5296 6803.062 0.327894 0.238873 2763.846 1.15E+09 -1595.852 3.683348 0.000002
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.974919 -2.101399 4.087002 -0.187379 0.358525 -0.109779 0.457741 0.762610 0.257020 0.775962 1.017639 0.597871 0.257238 0.454888 1.014510 1.215024 1.206766 1.121945 1.353065 1.142032 2.059561
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
223.0497 3925.673 1826.481 225.5958 216.8713 211.4066 220.4292 239.1330 195.8284 219.3784 200.4717 236.1232 197.1254 240.6912 242.8041 251.6718 258.3891 261.6762 230.7396 201.8591 3303.161
Std. Error
4799.817 3168.001 18.80061 19.18489 18.95652 0.495932
0.3312 0.0373 0.0001 0.8516 0.7205 0.9127 0.6478 0.4469 0.7975 0.4390 0.3105 0.5508 0.7973 0.6498 0.3120 0.2263 0.2294 0.2637 0.1781 0.2552 0.0412
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TECHDEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:31 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-19.91344 -7586.396 8454.288 320.1717 318.6225 327.9424 285.9923 400.3631 2.717308 248.6409 -90.50636 118.7109 63.46902 -26.59426 4450.651
0.313767 0.252574 2738.858 1.18E+09 -1597.641 5.127511 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.070361 -2.165644 3.583602 1.226409 1.302368 1.274037 1.233237 1.630260 0.011933 1.130528 -0.397885 0.584303 0.304329 -0.146863 1.517835
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
283.0183 3503.068 2359.159 261.0644 244.6485 257.4041 231.9037 245.5824 227.7047 219.9334 227.4687 203.1667 208.5541 181.0827 2932.236
Std. Error
4799.817 3168.001 18.75164 19.02613 18.86301 0.482361
0.9440 0.0318 0.0005 0.2219 0.1947 0.2045 0.2193 0.1051 0.9905 0.2600 0.6913 0.5599 0.7613 0.8834 0.1311
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TECHDEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-385.6535 -6893.201 7680.153 263.2253 71.80691 300.9762 125.6850 442.1494 348.7480 395.6839 343.5122 637.8695 739.5362 664.7804 680.7690 825.4446 7735.105 0.398191 0.336068 3004.810 1.40E+09 -1612.478 6.409789 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.327798 -1.896941 3.641523 1.027124 0.263334 1.274715 0.461119 1.609097 1.244186 1.286062 1.072196 1.968803 1.996337 1.735264 1.642378 1.981285 2.803418
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
290.4460 3633.851 2109.050 256.2740 272.6838 236.1126 272.5654 274.7810 280.3021 307.6709 320.3820 323.9884 370.4466 383.1005 414.5020 416.6209 2759.170
Std. Error
6386.120 3687.697 18.94742 19.25851 19.07364 0.359983
0.1862 0.0597 0.0004 0.3060 0.7926 0.2043 0.6454 0.1096 0.2153 0.2003 0.2853 0.0508 0.0476 0.0847 0.1025 0.0493 0.0057
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TECNOEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:00 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-433.4184 -8816.125 8735.012 -43.02375 85.56379 -43.68963 114.9220 233.6403 58.28398 185.5462 200.4666 140.3521 44.81416 154.5983 304.6105 350.6648 347.9183 328.6073 357.4825 287.2546 8607.544
0.342964 0.255939 3180.970 1.53E+09 -1620.029 3.940995 0.000001
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.594902 -2.057643 4.391155 -0.175062 0.367340 -0.194680 0.460142 0.876730 0.259532 0.692423 0.809454 0.492636 0.189264 0.549291 1.067596 1.195539 1.175724 1.115229 1.368711 1.226656 2.228403
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
271.7523 4284.574 1989.229 245.7624 232.9282 224.4179 249.7531 266.4907 224.5732 267.9666 247.6564 284.9000 236.7814 281.4504 285.3237 293.3111 295.9183 294.6546 261.1818 234.1770 3862.652
Std. Error
6386.120 3687.697 19.08173 19.46602 19.23765 0.472340
0.1128 0.0413 0.0000 0.8613 0.7139 0.8459 0.6461 0.3820 0.7956 0.4897 0.4195 0.6230 0.8501 0.5836 0.2874 0.2338 0.2416 0.2665 0.1731 0.2219 0.0273
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TECNOEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:31 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-251.3527 -8137.555 9495.443 309.0136 319.7951 323.3441 205.5650 346.9646 -83.07671 235.6903 -141.3997 87.38940 1.362544 -108.3152 6505.735 0.310847 0.249394 3194.930 1.60E+09 -1624.133 5.058274 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.770977 -2.101935 3.678417 1.016777 1.104053 1.070620 0.781871 1.260203 -0.319964 0.942945 -0.550434 0.384412 0.005887 -0.544755 1.884881
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
326.0185 3871.459 2581.394 303.9148 289.6555 302.0157 262.9142 275.3243 259.6435 249.9513 256.8877 227.3326 231.4447 198.8327 3451.536
Std. Error
6386.120 3687.697 19.05969 19.33418 19.17106 0.428154
0.4419 0.0372 0.0003 0.3108 0.2713 0.2860 0.4355 0.2095 0.7494 0.3472 0.5828 0.7012 0.9953 0.5867 0.0613
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TECNOEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-76.12132 -394.0062 829.3719 36.49309 32.05557 49.68012 35.62690 52.91501 52.82954 61.66397 45.50428 67.73867 83.05496 60.01251 61.58241 60.72627 805.2736
0.423799 0.364321 321.3335 16004554 -1227.974 7.125219 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.910925 -1.250281 4.361488 1.335923 1.192054 2.022576 1.232746 1.612343 1.649555 1.739815 1.246924 1.778438 1.880609 1.295768 1.205455 1.263715 2.511691
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
26.15022 315.1342 190.1580 27.31676 26.89105 24.56280 28.90043 32.81870 32.02654 35.44283 36.49322 38.08885 44.16386 46.31423 51.08645 48.05378 320.6102
Std. Error
870.2142 403.0295 14.47644 14.78753 14.60266 0.254165
0.0041 0.2131 0.0000 0.1835 0.2351 0.0448 0.2195 0.1089 0.1011 0.0839 0.2143 0.0773 0.0619 0.1970 0.2299 0.2082 0.0130
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELCMEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:00 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-80.11907 -619.3375 986.1029 10.51817 18.29554 5.771736 18.85744 26.47464 24.39557 29.30522 30.24990 21.74043 13.31811 19.78980 40.36324 40.88513 30.22111 28.19446 35.34587 24.87116 868.3231 0.377801 0.295391 338.3070 17282198 -1234.579 4.584385 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.041568 -1.667256 4.927852 0.440054 0.758589 0.249591 0.683835 1.009551 0.998155 0.972151 1.052652 0.695586 0.502963 0.652469 1.330227 1.394321 1.065693 1.042401 1.322211 1.014863 2.106962
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
26.34137 371.4710 200.1081 23.90200 24.11785 23.12476 27.57602 26.22418 24.44067 30.14473 28.73685 31.25483 26.47933 30.33063 30.34312 29.32262 28.35817 27.04760 26.73241 24.50693 412.1210
Std. Error
870.2142 403.0295 14.59976 14.98404 14.75567 0.365628
0.0028 0.0975 0.0000 0.6605 0.4493 0.8032 0.4951 0.3143 0.3198 0.3325 0.2942 0.4878 0.6157 0.5151 0.1854 0.1653 0.2883 0.2989 0.1881 0.3118 0.0368
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELCMEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:31 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-71.61737 -529.2572 975.2778 28.44534 34.58318 24.63700 11.72756 15.91964 -14.14029 9.937109 -31.07147 -8.461863 -11.47303 -29.05127 755.0026
0.324766 0.264554 345.6306 18755306 -1241.614 5.393713 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.374564 -1.510761 4.285692 0.956443 1.182403 0.811746 0.438709 0.570815 -0.507747 0.383074 -1.178675 -0.351132 -0.490868 -1.296564 1.915394
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
30.16022 350.3249 227.5660 29.74075 29.24821 30.35062 26.73200 27.88930 27.84910 25.94041 26.36135 24.09881 23.37294 22.40635 394.1761
Std. Error
870.2142 403.0295 14.61179 14.88628 14.72316 0.293409
0.0188 0.1329 0.0000 0.3403 0.2388 0.4182 0.6615 0.5689 0.6123 0.7022 0.2403 0.7260 0.6242 0.1967 0.0573
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELCMEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-138.5680 -5807.347 6757.657 249.6814 89.83512 266.0922 104.7189 376.1788 323.3394 347.8418 319.3306 557.1335 653.9970 596.2753 585.4352 689.3233 4677.077 0.403082 0.341464 2443.980 9.26E+08 -1576.945 6.541688 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.577130 -1.844135 3.689940 1.183850 0.394781 1.367669 0.463711 1.812466 1.497471 1.451878 1.310101 2.223654 2.306629 2.111053 1.941044 2.196243 2.233031
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
240.0985 3149.089 1831.373 210.9063 227.5567 194.5590 225.8277 207.5508 215.9236 239.5806 243.7450 250.5487 283.5293 282.4539 301.6084 313.8648 2094.497
Std. Error
4549.457 3011.674 18.53425 18.84534 18.66047 0.398028
0.5647 0.0671 0.0003 0.2383 0.6935 0.1734 0.6435 0.0718 0.1363 0.1486 0.1921 0.0276 0.0224 0.0364 0.0541 0.0296 0.0270
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELEQEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:00 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-171.2853 -7473.873 7727.204 -27.53317 88.31261 -24.16808 82.22146 176.1520 69.97208 175.5081 213.3916 145.1390 57.78824 105.5658 222.0824 280.0243 299.0583 287.8162 311.7194 219.5291 5343.354
0.334630 0.246501 2614.263 1.03E+09 -1586.282 3.797063 0.000001
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.828600 -2.059831 4.404564 -0.128968 0.437132 -0.123066 0.390816 0.793861 0.385901 0.856306 1.140394 0.664042 0.316512 0.463054 0.978986 1.203572 1.228420 1.187835 1.437015 1.144075 1.717166
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
206.7166 3628.391 1754.363 213.4883 202.0274 196.3837 210.3839 221.8927 181.3214 204.9595 187.1209 218.5692 182.5786 227.9772 226.8494 232.6610 243.4496 242.3031 216.9214 191.8835 3111.728
Std. Error
4549.457 3011.674 18.68932 19.07361 18.84524 0.506924
0.4086 0.0411 0.0000 0.8976 0.6626 0.9022 0.6965 0.4285 0.7001 0.3932 0.2559 0.5077 0.7521 0.6440 0.3292 0.2306 0.2212 0.2368 0.1528 0.2544 0.0880
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELEQEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:31 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
8.716272 -6848.513 8616.901 300.6584 306.1900 317.5637 296.5302 414.1953 27.42373 240.6229 -106.3127 70.20489 29.41645 -66.34572 3188.605 0.321507 0.261004 2588.982 1.05E+09 -1587.961 5.313929 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic 0.032732 -2.118901 3.891276 1.218683 1.331875 1.302932 1.336444 1.740592 0.126891 1.156291 -0.486472 0.359076 0.147650 -0.365968 1.165782
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
266.2935 3232.105 2214.415 246.7076 229.8939 243.7301 221.8800 237.9624 216.1197 208.0989 218.5382 195.5154 199.2306 181.2882 2735.164
Std. Error
4549.457 3011.674 18.63909 18.91358 18.75045 0.496020
0.9739 0.0357 0.0001 0.2248 0.1848 0.1945 0.1833 0.0837 0.8992 0.2493 0.6273 0.7200 0.8828 0.7149 0.2455
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELEQEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-41.51026 -331.1799 429.4464 23.42762 22.92532 35.21321 24.16034 36.64748 37.06306 40.97296 33.83919 47.99077 55.15609 43.47573 42.94681 40.76575 690.2368
0.369999 0.304967 220.0822 7507609. -1162.876 5.689469 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.255385 -1.513365 3.409908 1.247380 1.195103 1.997311 1.178958 1.564427 1.644480 1.627348 1.301480 1.768001 1.765140 1.323657 1.203855 1.219795 3.084195
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
18.40496 218.8368 125.9408 18.78147 19.18273 17.63031 20.49297 23.42549 22.53786 25.17775 26.00055 27.14408 31.24743 32.84516 35.67441 33.42017 223.7980
Std. Error
583.6783 263.9868 13.71948 14.03057 13.84570 0.210643
0.0255 0.1322 0.0008 0.2141 0.2339 0.0475 0.2402 0.1198 0.1021 0.1057 0.1950 0.0790 0.0795 0.1876 0.2305 0.2244 0.0024
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELFLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:00 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-44.11785 -489.6470 538.1426 6.166459 11.59758 5.609092 16.10719 18.41959 16.50435 23.17149 21.89105 16.07454 9.476449 14.74996 26.27499 27.77728 20.40545 19.44368 23.53879 16.29200 735.4664 0.321409 0.231529 231.4174 8086654. -1169.265 3.575992 0.000004
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.378737 -1.883093 4.069891 0.372005 0.694319 0.344268 0.853822 0.995672 0.971992 1.105448 1.093500 0.755966 0.515899 0.716987 1.261653 1.370989 1.050447 1.041321 1.270119 0.966734 2.575751
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
18.54676 260.0227 132.2253 16.57627 16.70354 16.29279 18.86481 18.49966 16.97992 20.96117 20.01925 21.26357 18.36882 20.57216 20.82584 20.26075 19.42550 18.67212 18.53275 16.85262 285.5348
Std. Error
583.6783 263.9868 13.84029 14.22458 13.99621 0.321940
0.0186 0.0616 0.0001 0.7104 0.4885 0.7311 0.3946 0.3210 0.3326 0.2707 0.2759 0.4508 0.6067 0.4745 0.2090 0.1724 0.2952 0.2994 0.2060 0.3352 0.0110
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELFLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:32 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-37.10501 -421.6719 539.8843 21.82685 23.48146 17.92884 7.963610 10.74505 -9.060050 6.845091 -17.91495 -3.112497 -5.535143 -15.80060 638.7171
0.257617 0.191417 237.3802 8846849. -1176.992 3.891510 0.000011
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.769415 -1.719277 3.663634 1.085934 1.178561 0.864219 0.433432 0.568530 -0.489137 0.396546 -1.060700 -0.195392 -0.351681 -1.111131 2.331438
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
20.97021 245.2611 147.3631 20.09961 19.92383 20.74571 18.37338 18.89971 18.52251 17.26180 16.88974 15.92952 15.73909 14.22028 273.9584
Std. Error
583.6783 263.9868 13.86037 14.13486 13.97174 0.253020
0.0788 0.0875 0.0003 0.2792 0.2404 0.3888 0.6653 0.5705 0.6254 0.6922 0.2905 0.8453 0.7255 0.2682 0.0210
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELFLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-105.9105 -38.50475 1557.356 34.56567 24.15432 39.54224 32.65350 46.27553 45.72257 67.21997 29.16278 55.50010 91.49028 47.43084 56.03014 63.71638 -116.1783 0.571429 0.527189 334.9167 17386226 -1235.095 12.91667 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -4.391367 -0.128499 6.014731 1.138598 1.020096 1.732924 1.268299 1.652207 1.587057 2.107217 0.891310 1.770979 2.343360 1.241106 1.263256 1.478220 -0.346739
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.11790 299.6508 258.9237 30.35809 23.67847 22.81822 25.74589 28.00832 28.80965 31.89987 32.71902 31.33866 39.04235 38.21659 44.35376 43.10344 335.0600
Std. Error
880.6459 487.0718 14.55925 14.87034 14.68546 0.611722
0.0000 0.8979 0.0000 0.2566 0.3093 0.0851 0.2066 0.1005 0.1145 0.0367 0.3741 0.0785 0.0204 0.2164 0.2084 0.1414 0.7293
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELMBEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:00 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-110.4535 -242.0354 1698.253 14.49218 25.11215 -1.285555 4.077184 23.67836 25.83031 13.49952 24.69816 14.16081 10.23020 13.63761 43.97282 40.44963 30.28249 26.76632 41.72871 27.28346 -54.92983
0.543461 0.482993 350.2204 18520800 -1240.532 8.987479 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -4.474207 -0.729943 6.801785 0.606327 1.012933 -0.057531 0.139338 1.003094 1.077950 0.468140 0.930468 0.439479 0.399817 0.428074 1.508271 1.463517 1.079761 1.042309 1.672648 1.169039 -0.139635
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.68673 331.5813 249.6776 23.90159 24.79151 22.34547 29.26102 23.60533 23.96243 28.83649 26.54379 32.22177 25.58716 31.85809 29.15446 27.63865 28.04553 25.67985 24.94770 23.33836 393.3817
Std. Error
880.6459 487.0718 14.66897 15.05326 14.82489 0.706575
0.0000 0.4666 0.0000 0.5452 0.3127 0.9542 0.8894 0.3174 0.2828 0.6404 0.3536 0.6609 0.6899 0.6692 0.1336 0.1454 0.2820 0.2989 0.0965 0.2442 0.8891
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELMBEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:32 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-111.6052 -187.1639 1616.895 5.674255 26.71253 8.776178 3.135563 8.076797 -20.32284 4.245031 -53.15784 -21.46917 -25.47713 -55.98759 -31.91640 0.522870 0.480323 351.1234 19356157 -1244.326 12.28932 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.648260 -0.597989 5.231127 0.172059 0.869885 0.272482 0.120095 0.260740 -0.638315 0.143480 -1.537767 -0.732871 -0.980926 -1.777979 -0.078028
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
30.59135 312.9887 309.0912 32.97857 30.70812 32.20830 26.10908 30.97648 31.83826 29.58624 34.56819 29.29460 25.97254 31.48946 409.0380
Std. Error
880.6459 487.0718 14.64332 14.91781 14.75469 0.580247
0.0004 0.5507 0.0000 0.8636 0.3857 0.7856 0.9046 0.7946 0.5242 0.8861 0.1261 0.4647 0.3281 0.0773 0.9379
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TELMBEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-99.40586 -903.7423 1441.383 48.47061 30.80608 66.39712 39.16522 81.19317 75.29686 87.90677 67.42360 111.6149 136.6476 107.7892 113.3785 126.2657 1320.594
0.422094 0.362439 523.1950 42428611 -1311.820 7.075609 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.122286 -1.558173 4.197910 1.082327 0.681330 1.692571 0.841314 1.658016 1.530385 1.598808 1.195423 1.921780 2.030342 1.520286 1.447020 1.646559 2.644149
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
46.83905 580.0012 343.3574 44.78368 45.21462 39.22856 46.55244 48.97007 49.20127 54.98270 56.40146 58.07891 67.30275 70.90062 78.35310 76.68455 499.4401
Std. Error
1349.906 655.2436 15.45139 15.76248 15.57761 0.316862
0.0354 0.1212 0.0000 0.2808 0.4967 0.0925 0.4015 0.0993 0.1280 0.1119 0.2337 0.0565 0.0440 0.1305 0.1499 0.1017 0.0090
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TLMITEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:00 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-108.3318 -1260.280 1657.463 2.882198 20.72078 0.235869 22.91192 41.93735 28.20191 40.52172 43.42156 30.13447 15.85057 31.18791 62.47261 67.94067 58.99300 54.80639 64.31375 48.60859 1462.233 0.375458 0.292737 551.0528 45852541 -1318.494 4.538857 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.396461 -1.850704 4.969752 0.070482 0.519525 0.006200 0.526138 0.959225 0.724587 0.858022 0.968665 0.597658 0.371027 0.624697 1.245461 1.355706 1.197496 1.143294 1.430020 1.215607 2.179059
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
45.20491 680.9729 333.5101 40.89288 39.88406 38.04073 43.54738 43.72004 38.92135 47.22688 44.82617 50.42091 42.72085 49.92489 50.16021 50.11462 49.26365 47.93725 44.97402 39.98708 671.0386
Std. Error
1349.906 655.2436 15.57551 15.95980 15.73143 0.434159
0.0178 0.0662 0.0000 0.9439 0.6042 0.9951 0.5996 0.3390 0.4698 0.3922 0.3343 0.5510 0.7111 0.5331 0.2149 0.1772 0.2330 0.2547 0.1548 0.2260 0.0309
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TLMITEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:32 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-83.88771 -1126.972 1720.060 47.51660 57.73195 47.83512 27.50106 41.41896 -19.27455 28.91939 -39.29133 2.246778 -7.431852 -34.77767 1174.268
0.325689 0.265559 561.5407 49506483 -1325.088 5.416441 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.556901 -1.785410 4.050065 0.921925 1.165064 0.917996 0.611068 0.872300 -0.417655 0.660145 -0.865435 0.056062 -0.188435 -0.966076 1.885144
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
53.88121 631.2120 424.6994 51.54064 49.55261 52.10822 45.00490 47.48249 46.14947 43.80760 45.40070 40.07685 39.43990 35.99891 622.9061
Std. Error
1349.906 655.2436 15.58242 15.85691 15.69378 0.366620
0.1215 0.0761 0.0001 0.3580 0.2458 0.3600 0.5420 0.3844 0.6768 0.5101 0.3881 0.9554 0.8508 0.3355 0.0613
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TLMITEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-52.59508 162.3501 2019.784 41.47609 25.55045 42.90183 23.82350 21.28084 31.60538 46.08691 1.478212 28.71402 65.47477 9.182185 10.79066 32.58442 -622.3574 0.577104 0.533450 340.6276 17984214 -1238.003 13.22000 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.115230 0.603380 7.273523 1.279590 1.184417 1.828701 1.078491 0.950982 1.217442 1.761858 0.049204 1.254604 1.942038 0.332909 0.417994 1.274432 -1.799506
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
24.86495 269.0678 277.6899 32.41359 21.57218 23.46027 22.08966 22.37776 25.96048 26.15813 30.04266 22.88692 33.71446 27.58165 25.81537 25.56781 345.8490
Std. Error
1238.734 498.6900 14.59306 14.90415 14.71928 1.032390
0.0360 0.5471 0.0000 0.2026 0.2381 0.0694 0.2825 0.3431 0.2253 0.0801 0.9608 0.2115 0.0539 0.7397 0.6765 0.2044 0.0739
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TOTMKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 10:55 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-55.49406 43.01622 2133.612 16.63379 36.76853 -1.199977 -15.19199 19.98480 24.38134 -8.730832 12.33289 -0.392417 -8.163838 0.519314 22.56339 14.60335 19.79185 17.23046 36.93441 28.52479 29.85332 4.105150 -614.8126
0.569882 0.506375 350.3720 18291322 -1239.460 8.973481 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) SCHGLOB(-17) SCHGLOB(-18) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
-2.028283 0.166531 8.644777 0.710471 1.591325 -0.053279 -0.521002 1.017630 1.003488 -0.342752 0.543401 -0.013341 -0.330165 0.016694 0.955584 0.640923 0.757311 0.718413 1.541204 1.235866 1.132308 0.160408 -1.830509
t-Statistic
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
27.36012 258.3082 246.8094 23.41233 23.10560 22.52271 29.15916 19.63857 24.29661 25.47274 22.69576 29.41500 24.72653 31.10795 23.61216 22.78487 26.13439 23.98408 23.96465 23.08081 26.36502 25.59189 335.8697
Std. Error
1238.734 498.6900 14.67976 15.10065 14.85053 1.103665
0.0443 0.8680 0.0000 0.4785 0.1137 0.9576 0.6031 0.3105 0.3173 0.7323 0.5877 0.9894 0.7417 0.9867 0.3408 0.5226 0.4501 0.4736 0.1254 0.2185 0.2593 0.8728 0.0692
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TOTMKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:15 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000) No d.f. adjustment for standard errors & covariance -73.36225 51.02254 1936.197 -28.61442 -7.328122 -23.11057 -20.63210 -11.97101 -36.39207 -10.74283 -70.53004 -39.18260 -33.62918 -69.68189 -373.7003 0.597605 0.561722 330.1455 17112384 -1233.730 16.65454 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.291299 0.223118 6.197211 -0.902103 -0.260658 -0.811942 -0.884481 -0.368727 -1.089878 -0.352901 -1.861013 -1.311111 -1.373742 -1.827194 -1.007283
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
32.01776 228.6796 312.4304 31.71969 28.11390 28.46332 23.32679 32.46573 33.39096 30.44147 37.89874 29.88502 24.47998 38.13602 370.9983
Std. Error
1238.734 498.6900 14.52011 14.79460 14.63148 0.955605
0.0233 0.8237 0.0000 0.3684 0.7947 0.4181 0.3778 0.7128 0.2774 0.7246 0.0646 0.1917 0.1715 0.0696 0.3153
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TOTMKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:38 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-47.88584 377.6349 2199.687 40.05165 24.02038 38.42045 20.18771 10.61676 23.17692 38.92395 -11.75758 13.60168 54.45422 -7.681796 -6.640261 17.55590 -1059.364
0.590176 0.547872 355.2608 19562585 -1245.238 13.95072 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
-2.058548 1.532728 7.788896 1.220739 1.142770 1.664274 0.973685 0.492810 0.935046 1.561324 -0.391206 0.625922 1.628414 -0.304097 -0.293291 0.812700 -3.120846
t-Statistic
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
23.26195 246.3809 282.4132 32.80935 21.01943 23.08542 20.73331 21.54332 24.78692 24.93009 30.05472 21.73062 33.44003 25.26101 22.64054 21.60193 339.4478
Std. Error
1212.030 528.3438 14.67719 14.98828 14.80340 1.176488
0.0412 0.1274 0.0000 0.2240 0.2549 0.0981 0.3317 0.6228 0.3512 0.1205 0.6962 0.5323 0.1055 0.7615 0.7697 0.4176 0.0022
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TOTXTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:00 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000) No d.f. adjustment for standard errors & covariance -48.39829 326.2598 2290.446 15.39038 35.66484 -3.418652 -29.65996 13.73201 23.14434 -17.32081 2.923455 -10.14362 -12.46925 -2.863567 15.71559 8.866630 15.68742 7.607002 31.79039 23.79419 -1102.126 0.587077 0.532385 361.2940 19710537 -1245.886 10.73428 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.694730 1.273872 8.289846 0.592392 1.431806 -0.139424 -0.916950 0.670014 0.842338 -0.637501 0.117261 -0.305377 -0.458118 -0.086240 0.612286 0.371331 0.570049 0.301990 1.321334 1.015492 -3.134385
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
28.55812 256.1167 276.2953 25.98005 24.90898 24.51985 32.34633 20.49510 27.47629 27.16986 24.93119 33.21670 27.21844 33.20481 25.66709 23.87797 27.51944 25.18958 24.05932 23.43120 351.6243
Std. Error
1212.030 528.3438 14.73123 15.11552 14.88715 1.238810
0.0922 0.2047 0.0000 0.5545 0.1543 0.8893 0.3606 0.5039 0.4009 0.5248 0.9068 0.7605 0.6475 0.9314 0.5413 0.7109 0.5695 0.7631 0.1884 0.3115 0.0021
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TOTXTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:32 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-75.22101 283.2163 2051.202 -43.16211 -19.96127 -35.92509 -20.64114 -39.46546 -28.58022 -17.18001 -78.46840 -46.39665 -38.13273 -77.42523 -736.7232
0.637561 0.605242 331.9574 17300723 -1234.671 19.72688 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.463749 1.444354 6.463906 -1.372703 -0.727706 -1.298777 -0.614684 -1.136696 -1.318990 -0.557862 -1.985308 -1.502844 -1.570883 -1.867898 -1.934613
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
30.53112 196.0851 317.3316 31.44315 27.43042 27.66072 33.58006 34.71946 21.66827 30.79615 39.52454 30.87258 24.27472 41.45047 380.8118
Std. Error
1212.030 528.3438 14.53106 14.80555 14.64243 1.119241
0.0148 0.1506 0.0000 0.1718 0.4679 0.1959 0.5397 0.2574 0.1891 0.5777 0.0489 0.1349 0.1182 0.0636 0.0548
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TOTXTEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:49 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
37.06867 333.8563 689.7759 6.309012 5.922690 4.547594 5.240425 -3.357615 4.897675 10.42863 -10.19249 -1.503930 17.12638 -3.541959 -2.399861 3.353285 -869.6574 0.495347 0.443254 139.0516 2996977. -1083.901 9.508858 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic 4.122005 3.000187 7.663685 0.477171 0.608177 0.466442 0.558328 -0.334736 0.424148 0.997601 -0.754244 -0.153307 1.240718 -0.333191 -0.252200 0.349320 -6.963037
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
8.992873 111.2785 90.00577 13.22171 9.738432 9.749548 9.385921 10.03063 11.54708 10.45371 13.51352 9.809916 13.80360 10.63041 9.515715 9.599454 124.8963
Std. Error
267.3764 186.3577 12.80117 13.11226 12.92739 1.024970
0.0001 0.0031 0.0000 0.6339 0.5440 0.6416 0.5774 0.7383 0.6720 0.3200 0.4518 0.8784 0.2166 0.7394 0.8012 0.7273 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TOYSGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:00 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
39.54757 312.6631 722.0973 16.47474 24.67308 7.231080 -6.674387 8.686361 14.67130 -6.232145 3.119858 2.745078 3.976462 1.531595 1.817667 -1.724921 -2.389350 -4.116221 1.684457 0.682383 -891.7234
0.521523 0.458148 137.1789 2841527. -1079.320 8.229226 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 4.492774 2.982417 7.206967 1.602248 2.267648 0.789939 -0.549129 1.044170 1.312986 -0.577226 0.330318 0.211709 0.414955 0.125068 0.192299 -0.207365 -0.232616 -0.459046 0.202906 0.076571 -6.640853
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
8.802483 104.8355 100.1943 10.28227 10.88047 9.153971 12.15449 8.318910 11.17400 10.79672 9.445018 12.96629 9.582884 12.24614 9.452315 8.318297 10.27167 8.966907 8.301681 8.911763 134.2785
Std. Error
267.3764 186.3577 12.79442 13.17871 12.95034 1.106965
0.0000 0.0033 0.0000 0.1112 0.0248 0.4308 0.5837 0.2981 0.1912 0.5646 0.7416 0.8326 0.6788 0.9006 0.8478 0.8360 0.8164 0.6469 0.8395 0.9391 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TOYSGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:32 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000) 25.70369 307.4288 611.8161 -12.96454 -6.695062 -13.56646 -9.403730 -7.461935 -7.507813 -9.384543 -26.00439 -22.52964 -15.80764 -31.48481 -729.9911 0.555817 0.516208 129.6214 2637867. -1072.924 14.03269 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable 3.265281 4.691567 8.687441 -1.213437 -0.627091 -1.285626 -0.883661 -0.693151 -0.699689 -0.860980 -2.425334 -2.069408 -1.445508 -2.910902 -7.763417
t-Statistic
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
7.871817 65.52795 70.42535 10.68415 10.67638 10.55241 10.64179 10.76524 10.73021 10.89984 10.72198 10.88700 10.93570 10.81617 94.02961
Std. Error
Dependent Variable: TOYSGEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments
267.3764 186.3577 12.65028 12.92477 12.76165 0.974023
0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.2268 0.5315 0.2005 0.3782 0.4892 0.4852 0.3906 0.0164 0.0401 0.1503 0.0041 0.0000
Prob.
Coefficient
55.73489 -1033.240 -16.89793 195.4246 198.5555 202.2450 142.9235 154.4076 154.6996 108.4488 114.8896 102.3878 37.98781 29.98754 -24.35148 -1.108170 3231.285
0.262434 0.186298 674.3043 70476375 -1355.461 3.446912 0.000030
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.808674 -2.282592 -0.036550 2.458473 2.276464 2.240996 1.577294 1.531066 1.641241 1.250573 1.252077 1.244524 0.475153 0.381621 -0.317655 -0.014867 3.597116
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
68.92130 452.6610 462.3240 79.49024 87.22098 90.24781 90.61310 100.8497 94.25770 86.71931 91.75923 82.27063 79.94865 78.57944 76.66026 74.53729 898.2988
Std. Error
2356.558 747.5206 15.95885 16.26993 16.08506 0.176390
0.4199 0.0238 0.9709 0.0151 0.0242 0.0264 0.1168 0.1278 0.1028 0.2130 0.2124 0.2152 0.6353 0.7033 0.7512 0.9882 0.0004
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRAVLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:01 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
0.035351 -0.034731 875.5575 1.79E+08 -2055.500 0.504421 0.949513
11.16980 8.023102 0.635162 1.398404 11.72954 -4.725321 -9.714754 -29.55001 -32.58619 -42.55407 -45.03003 -70.58095 -59.13861 -67.61132 -61.44617 -29.93756 -9.021898 2004.075
Coefficient
t-Statistic 0.180737 0.122877 0.009430 0.020906 0.171877 -0.072080 -0.151470 -0.486762 -0.548969 -0.737588 -0.803509 -1.302622 -1.072079 -1.199493 -1.100767 -0.513455 -0.163413 16.87293
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
61.80142 65.29371 67.35363 66.88866 68.24368 65.55695 64.13660 60.70735 59.35889 57.69357 56.04171 54.18377 55.16253 56.36659 55.82122 58.30607 55.20917 118.7746
Std. Error
1999.676 860.7380 16.45635 16.70845 16.55779 0.030835
0.8567 0.9023 0.9925 0.9833 0.8637 0.9426 0.8797 0.6269 0.5836 0.4615 0.4225 0.1940 0.2848 0.2315 0.2721 0.6081 0.8703 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRAVLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:32 Sample (adjusted): 1987M05 2008M04 Included observations: 252 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
42.49909 -1174.342 191.3253 13.91136 -13.15727 -7.397377 -41.97257 -8.904844 -49.92411 -31.73309 -50.46072 -54.00970 -48.64199 -41.25133 3167.478
0.081190 -0.000742 747.7978 87794652 -1374.357 0.990946 0.465132
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic 0.499246 -2.392671 0.346500 0.268455 -0.233831 -0.129056 -0.766731 -0.159089 -0.921555 -0.520961 -0.868572 -0.842167 -0.697105 -0.645732 2.855820
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
85.12661 490.8079 552.1657 51.82009 56.26827 57.31907 54.74223 55.97406 54.17377 60.91264 58.09616 64.13180 69.77717 63.88306 1109.131
Std. Error
2356.558 747.5206 16.15531 16.42980 16.26668 0.135140
0.6183 0.0179 0.7294 0.7887 0.8154 0.8975 0.4444 0.8738 0.3582 0.6031 0.3864 0.4010 0.4868 0.5194 0.0049
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRAVLEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-24.68506 76.98660 839.3344 32.63089 26.65140 36.67996 27.94715 27.15290 29.63555 31.68303 13.36056 26.23790 40.08859 15.87445 15.13073 21.54219 -158.2411 0.514539 0.464427 179.6427 5002081. -1127.954 10.26775 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -1.776403 0.526787 6.322756 1.871426 1.948977 2.497353 1.955144 1.725366 1.774935 1.928508 0.751003 1.667504 2.147974 0.915236 0.924940 1.374292 -0.793540
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
13.89609 146.1437 132.7482 17.43638 13.67456 14.68754 14.29416 15.73748 16.69669 16.42878 17.79029 15.73484 18.66345 17.34466 16.35860 15.67512 199.4117
Std. Error
606.5321 245.4709 13.31342 13.62451 13.43964 0.703417
0.0776 0.5991 0.0000 0.0632 0.0531 0.0136 0.0524 0.0865 0.0779 0.0556 0.4538 0.0974 0.0333 0.3615 0.3564 0.1713 0.4287
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRLESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:01 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-22.88668 -25.42698 954.7070 16.47844 26.94809 12.06208 3.020386 19.67925 18.99467 2.560184 8.046094 1.633146 -1.988176 4.078843 13.35630 10.97746 11.10577 8.024358 17.53660 14.99767 -187.4066
0.471698 0.401724 189.8676 5443506. -1135.227 6.741062 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.330998 -0.164174 7.474567 1.230487 2.077768 0.878564 0.179244 1.423223 1.264662 0.169057 0.542386 0.097783 -0.133366 0.241817 0.923893 0.774471 0.728256 0.564498 1.250340 1.094411 -0.891587
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
17.19513 154.8783 127.7274 13.39180 12.96973 13.72932 16.85070 13.82724 15.01956 15.14394 14.83463 16.70179 14.90769 16.86748 14.45654 14.17413 15.24982 14.21505 14.02547 13.70388 210.1945
Std. Error
606.5321 245.4709 13.44450 13.82879 13.60042 0.786319
0.1852 0.8698 0.0000 0.2204 0.0394 0.3810 0.8580 0.1567 0.2079 0.8660 0.5884 0.9222 0.8941 0.8093 0.3570 0.4399 0.4676 0.5733 0.2131 0.2755 0.3740
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRLESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:33 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-37.29908 -3.504162 805.0899 -12.21549 -7.203708 -13.60010 -18.11407 -11.80854 -25.25170 -14.59363 -38.80788 -24.66348 -25.82394 -38.30007 -14.66278 0.510380 0.466720 179.2577 5044930. -1128.688 11.68978 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.159282 -0.025990 5.765214 -0.704522 -0.460554 -0.847066 -1.288913 -0.731827 -1.511967 -0.935848 -2.124474 -1.607204 -1.867003 -2.146032 -0.072783
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
17.27383 134.8279 139.6461 17.33870 15.64139 16.05553 14.05376 16.13571 16.70122 15.59401 18.26705 15.34558 13.83177 17.84693 201.4583
Std. Error
606.5321 245.4709 13.29870 13.57319 13.41006 0.613232
0.0323 0.9793 0.0000 0.4822 0.6458 0.3982 0.1993 0.4654 0.1326 0.3508 0.0352 0.1100 0.0638 0.0334 0.9421
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRLESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-6.729406 54.66468 163.3008 2.437795 1.376106 2.006007 1.364596 0.347260 1.535085 3.275865 -0.754338 0.597596 4.389915 -0.370510 -0.106690 1.024168 -125.5842
0.624331 0.585552 27.28641 115405.0 -803.8063 16.09981 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.567639 3.174230 6.805538 0.870772 0.675068 0.936996 0.683442 0.169565 0.684086 1.427054 -0.289089 0.294790 1.547447 -0.167220 -0.055026 0.553255 -4.355587
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
1.886235 17.22140 23.99528 2.799580 2.038472 2.140892 1.996653 2.047952 2.243995 2.295544 2.609359 2.027191 2.836875 2.215700 1.938902 1.851169 28.83289
Std. Error
57.03963 42.38493 9.544260 9.855349 9.670477 1.201498
0.0005 0.0018 0.0000 0.3852 0.5006 0.3502 0.4953 0.8656 0.4949 0.1556 0.7729 0.7685 0.1238 0.8674 0.9562 0.5809 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRNSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:01 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-6.922450 48.54016 170.4043 1.887414 3.599815 0.654899 -1.963191 1.451505 2.797253 -0.844839 0.490644 -0.401348 -0.051198 0.113594 2.126330 1.588100 1.515848 0.997772 2.477149 2.050468 -126.2189 0.633570 0.585037 27.30337 112566.6 -801.6647 13.05423 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.478184 2.728710 7.976239 0.987114 1.881456 0.348877 -0.796846 0.937587 1.379870 -0.423683 0.277931 -0.163673 -0.028063 0.050674 1.212239 1.018046 0.799175 0.587434 1.654256 1.333186 -4.824750
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
1.990248 17.78868 21.36400 1.912052 1.913313 1.877164 2.463702 1.548128 2.027185 1.994035 1.765344 2.452128 1.824403 2.241642 1.754051 1.559949 1.896767 1.698527 1.497440 1.538021 26.16071
Std. Error
57.03963 42.38493 9.565869 9.950156 9.721784 1.275400
0.0007 0.0071 0.0000 0.3252 0.0618 0.7277 0.4268 0.3500 0.1697 0.6724 0.7814 0.8702 0.9776 0.9597 0.2273 0.3103 0.4254 0.5578 0.1002 0.1845 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRNSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:33 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-8.545502 48.07627 153.4757 -2.977028 -0.744990 -2.843400 -1.784859 -1.303020 -1.937805 -0.867824 -5.294588 -3.243475 -2.376557 -5.807074 -103.8987
0.657611 0.627079 25.88331 105181.4 -795.8289 21.53874 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -3.817709 3.502407 6.200386 -1.252953 -0.360358 -1.412155 -1.135765 -0.514493 -0.739052 -0.396487 -1.781956 -1.317295 -1.241161 -1.813761 -3.125377
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
2.238385 13.72664 24.75260 2.376010 2.067362 2.013518 1.571503 2.532628 2.622015 2.188781 2.971223 2.462224 1.914785 3.201676 33.24356
Std. Error
57.03963 42.38493 9.428243 9.702734 9.539611 1.136792
0.0002 0.0006 0.0000 0.2121 0.7191 0.1599 0.2578 0.6076 0.4610 0.6923 0.0767 0.1897 0.2164 0.0716 0.0021
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRNSVEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-33.63819 444.1741 1206.605 14.04383 9.156400 12.13766 11.58195 2.455653 10.40276 21.44342 -11.37129 0.732923 29.29343 -2.818754 -1.096760 6.885478 -1045.107 0.600589 0.559360 203.8119 6438591. -1149.665 14.56698 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
Variable
t-Statistic -2.470039 3.145560 7.217712 0.684096 0.600626 0.754226 0.780500 0.156260 0.636052 1.281230 -0.558922 0.048773 1.397651 -0.162987 -0.071989 0.481670 -5.204427
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
13.61849 141.2067 167.1727 20.52903 15.24477 16.09287 14.83913 15.71523 16.35521 16.73660 20.34505 15.02717 20.95904 17.29435 15.23511 14.29503 200.8112
Std. Error
409.5747 307.0347 13.56588 13.87697 13.69209 1.230989
0.0146 0.0020 0.0000 0.4949 0.5490 0.4519 0.4363 0.8760 0.5257 0.2020 0.5770 0.9612 0.1642 0.8707 0.9427 0.6307 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRUCKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:01 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-33.56645 396.7143 1264.051 17.12271 30.81720 10.18196 -11.22713 12.42069 22.26963 -8.123174 0.195827 -4.649998 -3.317794 -0.915724 13.99914 9.065781 7.266545 5.639097 16.52986 12.80168 -1057.842
0.612783 0.561497 203.3172 6242018. -1146.999 11.94813 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -2.407785 2.770091 8.357699 1.171408 2.201604 0.751822 -0.635358 1.044357 1.396974 -0.542505 0.014118 -0.248595 -0.241765 -0.054267 1.056129 0.740023 0.503507 0.449081 1.463887 1.149544 -5.633326
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
13.94080 143.2134 151.2439 14.61721 13.99761 13.54304 17.67055 11.89315 15.94133 14.97345 13.87109 18.70511 13.72322 16.87432 13.25514 12.25068 14.43186 12.55696 11.29176 11.13631 187.7828
Std. Error
409.5747 307.0347 13.58138 13.96567 13.73730 1.312893
0.0173 0.0063 0.0000 0.2433 0.0292 0.4533 0.5262 0.2980 0.1645 0.5883 0.9888 0.8040 0.8093 0.9568 0.2926 0.4604 0.6153 0.6540 0.1453 0.2521 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRUCKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:33 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-49.70949 397.6292 1108.892 -23.87179 -5.710523 -24.28985 -14.61827 -14.52791 -17.22761 -11.58270 -44.31544 -28.26956 -21.99918 -42.40854 -852.5874 0.650291 0.619107 189.4912 5637387. -1138.237 20.85320 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
Variable
t-Statistic -3.230845 3.771317 6.561830 -1.420470 -0.388013 -1.616230 -1.312407 -0.747562 -0.873733 -0.696428 -1.985097 -1.560883 -1.580317 -1.827765 -3.637459
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
15.38591 105.4351 168.9912 16.80556 14.71736 15.02871 11.13852 19.43372 19.71724 16.63159 22.32406 18.11126 13.92074 23.20240 234.3910
Std. Error
409.5747 307.0347 13.40973 13.68422 13.52110 1.172916
0.0015 0.0002 0.0000 0.1575 0.6985 0.1081 0.1913 0.4558 0.3836 0.4872 0.0489 0.1206 0.1160 0.0695 0.0004
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TRUCKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-4.666025 345.6505 992.9396 14.93537 10.24861 9.805484 5.364359 -7.509204 -0.472246 8.057151 -16.16937 -6.330120 15.90739 -15.61388 -11.67990 -3.347052 -862.1035
0.525584 0.476611 181.1090 5084072. -1129.352 10.73232 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHOAANB SCHOAANB(-1) SCHOAANB(-2) SCHOAANB(-3) SCHOAANB(-4) SCHOAANB(-5) SCHOAANB(-6) SCHOAANB(-7) SCHOAANB(-8) SCHOAANB(-9) SCHOAANB(-10) SCHOAANB(-11) SCHOAANB(-12) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -0.345625 2.658280 8.040236 0.839750 0.800768 0.730128 0.439485 -0.545912 -0.033302 0.565329 -0.943221 -0.497713 0.886251 -1.103260 -0.931619 -0.279345 -5.214160
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
13.50026 130.0279 123.4963 17.78550 12.79847 13.42982 12.20601 13.75535 14.18060 14.25215 17.14271 12.71842 17.94907 14.15249 12.53720 11.98178 165.3389
Std. Error
410.3339 250.3387 13.32968 13.64077 13.45590 1.096678
0.7301 0.0087 0.0000 0.4023 0.4245 0.4664 0.6609 0.5859 0.9735 0.5727 0.3470 0.6194 0.3769 0.2716 0.3530 0.7804 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TYRESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:01 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
-6.581656 328.5931 1015.903 14.86310 21.67707 4.576166 -13.85851 10.07512 16.98899 -5.716668 3.933547 -1.155216 -1.623034 0.880514 9.121328 5.613914 7.965607 6.316894 14.73535 14.03745 -859.8492 0.537886 0.476679 181.0973 4952231. -1127.093 8.787965 0.000000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
IR EX IP SCHGLOB SCHGLOB(-1) SCHGLOB(-2) SCHGLOB(-3) SCHGLOB(-4) SCHGLOB(-5) SCHGLOB(-6) SCHGLOB(-7) SCHGLOB(-8) SCHGLOB(-9) SCHGLOB(-10) SCHGLOB(-11) SCHGLOB(-12) SCHGLOB(-13) SCHGLOB(-14) SCHGLOB(-15) SCHGLOB(-16) C
Variable
t-Statistic -0.446620 2.472018 8.495641 1.119837 1.781760 0.361750 -0.857116 0.875171 1.144585 -0.421938 0.307756 -0.068624 -0.117591 0.054744 0.697434 0.444746 0.548421 0.479118 1.195929 1.118426 -5.133282
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
14.73659 132.9250 119.5793 13.27257 12.16610 12.65008 16.16877 11.51218 14.84292 13.54861 12.78138 16.83411 13.80231 16.08427 13.07840 12.62273 14.52463 13.18443 12.32126 12.55107 167.5048
Std. Error
410.3339 250.3387 13.34992 13.73420 13.50583 1.137527
0.6558 0.0145 0.0000 0.2646 0.0768 0.7180 0.3927 0.3829 0.2542 0.6737 0.7587 0.9454 0.9065 0.9564 0.4866 0.6571 0.5842 0.6325 0.2336 0.2652 0.0000
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TYRESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:33 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
Coefficient
-21.57812 319.8917 872.2858 -24.29032 -13.37247 -23.95657 -17.11808 -18.66891 -21.44825 -15.87292 -37.47888 -25.28032 -19.46400 -37.15442 -660.9085
0.600728 0.565124 165.0862 4278793. -1114.523 16.87251 0.000000
Variable
IR EX IP SCHSPEC SCHSPEC(-1) SCHSPEC(-2) SCHSPEC(-3) SCHSPEC(-4) SCHSPEC(-5) SCHSPEC(-6) SCHSPEC(-7) SCHSPEC(-8) SCHSPEC(-9) SCHSPEC(-10) C
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
t-Statistic -1.561694 3.329827 7.089428 -1.722390 -1.048106 -1.827803 -1.689737 -1.171678 -1.305568 -1.130027 -2.067246 -1.744315 -1.644497 -1.847443 -3.652435
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
13.81712 96.06856 123.0404 14.10268 12.75870 13.10676 10.13062 15.93348 16.42829 14.04649 18.12986 14.49298 11.83584 20.11127 180.9501
Std. Error
410.3339 250.3387 13.13398 13.40847 13.24535 1.046931
0.1204 0.0011 0.0000 0.0870 0.2962 0.0695 0.0931 0.2431 0.1936 0.2602 0.0404 0.0831 0.1021 0.0666 0.0004
Prob.
Dependent Variable: TYRESEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/10/10 Time: 11:50 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000)
APPENDIX D : ASYMMETRIE
Dependent Variable: TOTMKEM_SA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/12/10 Time: 09:41 Sample (adjusted): 1994M01 2008M04 Included observations: 172 after adjustments HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 5.0000) Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
IR EX IP AS_SP_NEG AS_SP_POS AS_SP_NEG(-1) AS_SP_POS(-1) AS_SP_NEG(-2) AS_SP_POS(-2) AS_SP_NEG(-3) AS_SP_POS(-3) AS_SP_NEG(-4) AS_SP_POS(-4) AS_SP_NEG(-5) AS_SP_POS(-5) AS_SP_NEG(-6) AS_SP_POS(-6) AS_SP_NEG(-7) AS_SP_POS(-7) AS_SP_NEG(-8) AS_SP_POS(-8) AS_SP_NEG(-9) AS_SP_POS(-9) AS_SP_NEG(-10) AS_SP_POS(-10) C
-84.56629 245.3029 1262.699 -95.38741 23.68637 -82.13409 36.89586 -143.6851 68.77492 -117.2486 47.72122 -118.6532 80.03544 -152.2380 86.90720 -87.58998 70.54270 -145.6058 13.17160 -154.3092 65.30179 -129.8738 57.19287 -176.6793 72.55749 -650.6929
25.68916 154.0448 322.9466 31.38941 46.33102 45.25480 46.27445 45.77381 46.42030 38.84615 45.24189 45.34883 46.68482 48.38865 38.84667 42.42067 41.85972 49.98012 37.56524 51.77928 43.85453 53.57283 55.54008 72.71766 51.32278 308.6639
-3.291906 1.592412 3.909931 -3.038841 0.511242 -1.814926 0.797327 -3.139024 1.481570 -3.018281 1.054802 -2.616456 1.714378 -3.146151 2.237185 -2.064795 1.685217 -2.913274 0.350633 -2.980133 1.489054 -2.424247 1.029759 -2.429662 1.413748 -2.108095
0.0012 0.1135 0.0001 0.0028 0.6100 0.0716 0.4266 0.0021 0.1406 0.0030 0.2933 0.0098 0.0886 0.0020 0.0268 0.0407 0.0941 0.0041 0.7264 0.0034 0.1386 0.0166 0.3048 0.0163 0.1596 0.0367
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.723592 0.676262 283.7448 11754619 -1201.432 15.28817 0.000000
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
1238.734 498.6900 14.27246 14.74825 14.46550 0.727834
