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LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Jenis Variabel Pada Penelitian Dampak Alokasi Pengeluaran Pembangunan No A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
NOTASI
KETERANGAN
SUMBER DATA
B
C
D
Tingkat degradasi hutan penyangga TNKS (%) Tingkat degradasi hutan taman nasional (%) Angka beban ketergantungan (%) Dummy variabel kawasan (1 Sumetera Barat dan 0 lainnya) Dummy variabel kawasan (1 Jambi dan 0 lainnya) Pertumbuhan ekonomi (%) Pangsa GDP sektor pertanian (%) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan terhadap total pengeluaran pemerintah (%) Struktur penerimaan pemerintah (%) Luas tutupan hutan sekitar TNKS (ribu ha) Pendapatan perkapita/rasio GDP dan jumlah penduduk (juta rupiah/kapita) Jumlah HPH sekitar TNKS (unit) Jumlah rumah tangga (KK) Luas hutan konsesi pada kawasan penyangga (ribu ha) Alokasi kredit sektor pertanian (%) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan sektor pertanian (%) Porsi lahan untuk budidaya pertanian (%) Porsi luas lahan kering (%) Porsi luas lahan tambak dan kolam (%) Porsi luas lahan perkebunan (%) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan sektor lingkungan (%) Porsi luas hutan kawasan (%) Porsi luas lahan rumputan (%)
Intepretasi citra landsat Intepretasi citra landsat Statistik KESRA Provinsi Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Statistik Keuangan Daerah Statistik Keuangan Daerah Intepretasi citra landsat Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Statitik Kehutanan Provinsi Statistik KESRA Provinsi Statitik Kehutanan Provinsi Statistik Ekonomi - Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Statistik Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka
DEGHS DEGTN DEPR DKAW1 DKAW2 ECOG ECOS GEXS GRES HSTNK INCP JHPHS JRTG LHPHS PAGC PAGE PCUL PDRY PDYK PEST PEVE PFOR PGRA
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
232
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan A 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
B PHOU PHRE PIDE PKBOT PLAJG PLAKD PLAKL PLAKM PLAKP PLAKR PLAKS PLAKT PLAPL PLAPS PLAUJ PLAUJ PLAUK PLUTN POPD POPG POPK POPM POPS POTE POTK POTM POTS PPAD PPGOT
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
C Porsi luas lahan perumahan dan pemukiman (%) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan sumberdaya manusia (%) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan industri dan dunia usaha (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya perkebunan lainnya Porsi luas areal budidaya jagung (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya kacang kedele (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya kelapa (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya kulit manis (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya kopi (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya karet (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya kelapa sawit (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya kacang tanah (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya padi ladang (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya padi sawah (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya ubi jalar (%) Porsi luas areal ubi jalar (%) Porsi luas areal budidaya ubi kayu (%) Porsi luas areal taman nasional terhadap total kawasan (%) Kepadatan penduduk (jiwa/km2) Pertumbuhan penduduk (%) Populasi ternak kerbau (ribu ekor) Populasi ternak kambing/domba (ribu ekor) Populasi ternak sapi (ribu ekor) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan sektor lainnya. Pemotongan ternak kerbau (ribu ekor/tahun) Pemotongan ternak kambing/domba (ribu ekor/tahun) Pemotongan ternak sapi (ribu ekor/tahun) Porsi PAD terhadap GDP Porsi luas areal budidaya ubi kayu (%)
D Kabupaten dalam angka Statistik Keuangan Daerah Statistik Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Statistik KESRA Provinsi Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Statistik Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Statistik Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten dalam angka
233
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan A 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81
B PPUK PRDE PROC PSRE PSWA PSWE PTEM PTRE PUKC PUSE PVBD PVJG PVKD PVKL PVKM PVKP PVKR PVKS PVKT PVOW PVPL PVPS PVUJ PVUK PWET PWOD PWRE REPG RHSTN
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
C Porsi penduduk usia kerja (15- 64 tahun) (%) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan wilayah (%) Alokasi penggunaan kredit untuk investasi dan modal kerja (%) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan untuk sains dan penelitian (%) Porsi luas lahan rawa-rawa (%) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan kesejahteraan rakyat (%) Porsi luas lahan menganggur (%) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan sektor transportasi (%) Alokasi kredit untuk pengembangan usaha kecil dan menengah (%) Porsi penggunaan lahan terhadap luas kawasan (%) Produktifitas ikan budidaya (ton/ha) Produktifitas jagung (ton/ha) Produktifitas kacang kedele (ton/ha) Produktifitas kelapa (ton/ha) Produktifitas kulit manis (ton/ha) Produktifitas kopi (ton/ha) Produktifitas karet (ton/ha) Produktifitas kelapa sawit (ton/ha) Produktifitas kacang tanah (ton/ha) Produktifitas ikan perairan terbuka (ton/ha) Produktifitas padi ladang (ton/ha) Produktifitas padi ladang (ton/ha) Produktifitas ubi jalar (ton/ha) Produktifitas ubi kayu (ton/ha) Porsi luas lahan basah (%) Porsi luas lahan kayuan (%) Alokasi pengeluaran pembangunan sumber daya air dan irigasi (%) Rasio pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pertumbuhan penduduk Rasio luas tutupan hutan penyangga terhadap luas taman nasional (%)
D Kabupaten dalam angka Statistik Keuangan Daerah Statistik Ekonomi - Keuangan Daerah Statistik Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten dalam angka Statistik Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten dalam angka Statistik Keuangan Daerah Statistik Ekonomi - Keuangan Daerah Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Kabupaten dalam angka Statistik Keuangan Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah
234
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan A 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109
B RJAK RKBMT ROIBR ROIJG ROIKD ROIKL ROIKM ROIKP ROIKR ROIKS ROIKT ROIUJ ROIUK RPIKB RPIOW RPLOG RPSMN RSKB RWIND SEXR SSHT SSIK SSKB SSPG SSTN TPAK UNEM YEAR
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
C Rataan jumlah anggota keluarga (jiwa/KK) Rasio harga kayu bakar terhadap minyak tanah Rasio harga beras dan pupuk Rasio harga jagung terhadapHarga pupuk Rasio harga kacang kedele terhadapHarga pupuk Rasio harga kelapa terhadapHarga pupuk Rasio harga kulit manis terhadapHarga pupuk Rasio harga kopi terhadapHarga pupuk Rasio harga karet terhadapHarga pupuk Rasio harga kelapa sawit terhadapHarga pupuk Rasio harga kacang tanah terhadapHarga pupuk Rasio harga ubi jalar terhadapHarga pupuk Rasio harga ubi kayu terhadapHarga pupuk Harga real ikan budidaya (Rp/kg) Harga real ikan perairan terbuka (Rp/kg) Harga real kayu balok (Rp/m3) Harga real input semen (Rp/kg) Tingkat suku bunga riil (%) Rasio upah non-pertanian dan pertanian Rasio jenis kelamin (%) Share produk domestik sub-sektor kehutanan (%) Share produk domestik sub-sektor perikanan (%) Share produk domestik sub-sektor perkebunan (%) Share produk domestik sub-sektor pangan (%) Share produk domestik sub-sektor peternakan (%) Tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja (%) Tingkat pengangguran terbuka (%) Tahun
D Statistik KESRA Provinsi Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Statistik Ekonomi - Keuangan Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Statistik KESRA Provinsi Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Indikator Ekonomi Daerah Statistik KESRA Provinsi Statistik KESRA Provinsi -
235
Lampiran 2. Data Perkembangan Sosial Ekonomi Kawasan dan Taman Nasional Kerinci Seblat NO
REGION
YEAR
LREG
LKAW
LTNKS
DEGHS
DEGTN
RHSTN
KRIS
DESE
DKAW1
DKAW2
CEXP
DEXP
TEXP
1
Bengkulu
1994
1609.6
1267.6
342.0
8.91
3.58
48.27
0
0
0
0
33,974
27,641
61,615
2
Bengkulu
1995
1609.6
1267.6
342.0
9.40
3.59
48.01
0
0
0
0
41,879
27,786
69,665
3
Bengkulu
1996
1609.6
1267.6
342.0
11.80
3.61
46.74
0
0
0
0
48,863
34,910
83,773
4
Bengkulu
1997
1609.6
1267.6
342.0
19.27
5.49
42.77
1
0
0
0
58,676
46,430
105,105
5
Bengkulu
1998
1609.6
1267.6
342.0
19.54
5.54
42.63
1
0
0
0
70,470
51,959
122,430
6
Bengkulu
1999
1609.6
1267.6
342.0
19.75
5.68
42.52
1
0
0
0
100,115
61,545
161,660
7
Bengkulu
2000
1609.6
1267.6
342.0
19.97
5.81
42.41
1
0
0
0
100,177
44,035
144,212
8
Bengkulu
2001
1609.6
1267.6
342.0
21.21
4.87
41.75
1
1
0
0
248,036
64,752
312,788
9
Bengkulu
2002
1609.6
1267.6
342.0
23.25
5.03
40.67
1
1
0
0
287,901
86,657
374,558
10
Bengkulu
2003
1609.6
1267.6
342.0
25.30
5.18
39.58
1
1
0
0
363,079
135,259
498,338
11
Jambi
1994
1840.0
1422.4
417.6
-0.12
6.83
65.79
0
0
0
1
36,821
27,892
64,713
12
Jambi
1995
1840.0
1422.4
417.6
0.12
6.84
65.63
0
0
0
1
44,410
34,658
79,068
13
Jambi
1996
1840.0
1422.4
417.6
2.42
6.87
64.12
0
0
0
1
53,044
39,521
92,565
14
Jambi
1997
1840.0
1422.4
417.6
11.66
7.00
58.05
1
0
0
1
61,678
45,723
107,401
15
Jambi
1998
1840.0
1422.4
417.6
11.83
7.02
57.93
1
0
0
1
70,473
40,967
111,439
16
Jambi
1999
1840.0
1422.4
417.6
11.91
7.13
57.88
1
0
0
1
99,000
47,247
146,247
17
Jambi
2000
1840.0
1422.4
417.6
11.99
7.24
57.83
1
0
0
1
98,927
37,731
136,658
18
Jambi
2001
1840.0
1422.4
417.6
11.51
8.28
58.14
1
1
0
1
195,745
50,536
246,281
19
Jambi
2002
1840.0
1422.4
417.6
12.50
8.47
57.49
1
1
0
1
251,268
108,231
359,498
20
Jambi
2003
1840.0
1422.4
417.6
13.50
8.65
56.84
1
1
0
1
292,985
141,750
434,735
21
Sumbar
1994
1281.2
934.8
346.4
0.05
5.73
137.22
0
0
1
0
35,296
24,155
59,451
22
Sumbar
1995
1281.2
934.8
346.4
0.37
5.90
136.78
0
0
1
0
38,603
24,544
63,147
23
Sumbar
1996
1281.2
934.8
346.4
2.01
5.92
134.53
0
0
1
0
47,007
32,678
79,685
24
Sumbar
1997
1281.2
934.8
346.4
9.28
7.79
124.55
1
0
1
0
54,815
39,631
94,446
25
Sumbar
1998
1281.2
934.8
346.4
9.33
7.89
124.48
1
0
1
0
63,093
48,052
111,146
26
Sumbar
1999
1281.2
934.8
346.4
9.48
8.27
124.28
1
0
1
0
89,426
52,599
142,025
27
Sumbar
2000
1281.2
934.8
346.4
9.62
8.65
124.08
1
0
1
0
85,107
53,875
138,981
28
Sumbar
2001
1281.2
934.8
346.4
9.13
6.99
124.75
1
1
1
0
227,440
89,665
317,106
29
Sumbar
2002
1281.2
934.8
346.4
10.63
7.23
122.70
1
1
1
0
276,565
99,495
376,061
30
Sumbar
2003
1281.2
934.8
346.4
12.13
7.47
120.64
1
1
1
0
419,447
112,076
531,523
236
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan NO
AGDE
IDDE
TRDE
RDDE
HRDE
SRDE
SWDE
EVDE
WRDE
OTDE
PAD
BREV
TREV
1
1,164
1,558
15,305
1,136
3,479
167
1,428
1,135
463
1,807
3,167
59,073
62,241
2
997
1,689
13,302
2,503
3,698
222
1,945
617
621
2,191
3,240
67,674
70,913
3
1,688
1,190
15,245
4,408
3,976
78
2,933
846
171
4,376
2,796
82,116
84,912
4
1,284
958
15,153
11,875
6,210
230
4,006
1,854
174
4,687
3,639
102,343
105,982
5
2,104
1,486
12,997
17,521
5,369
156
4,519
1,589
180
6,038
3,848
123,898
127,746
6
2,588
3,335
13,947
17,095
8,221
552
2,445
3,981
508
8,872
5,129
161,070
166,199
7
2,022
2,223
9,578
13,574
5,442
400
2,549
1,512
50
6,686
4,781
147,086
151,866
8
3,746
2,472
10,163
10,823
11,353
913
4,797
966
2,294
17,225
20,286
325,148
345,434
9
6,928
4,614
21,131
14,627
8,311
1,119
4,159
2,433
5,972
17,364
12,819
399,439
412,258
10
4,745
8,716
23,393
9,794
14,990
1,761
10,266
1,440
6,759
53,395
16,364
528,658
545,022
11
1,010
1,046
12,929
4,446
2,904
318
1,057
723
123
3,457
1,598
64,701
66,299
12
953
741
13,189
4,107
6,930
436
1,669
1,138
297
5,198
2,494
78,634
81,129
13
975
1,054
13,360
7,556
6,815
642
1,870
1,564
124
5,560
2,785
92,173
94,958
14
997
1,367
13,531
11,006
6,701
848
2,070
1,991
5
7,208
3,076
105,712
108,788
15
2,156
2,104
13,110
5,971
8,963
408
1,741
1,562
323
4,628
3,746
110,714
114,460
16
2,828
2,462
10,902
10,846
5,179
439
1,852
4,875
593
7,271
5,172
144,983
150,155
17
2,619
1,084
8,787
9,257
4,081
417
1,038
1,912
826
7,710
4,274
118,526
122,800
18
1,429
3,133
12,206
7,812
3,633
1,028
2,677
1,748
3,341
13,529
8,447
258,992
267,439
19
2,783
4,532
40,634
19,253
7,160
436
7,309
2,898
5,410
17,814
14,240
349,292
363,532
20
2,894
13,462
47,415
17,916
13,684
3,842
6,637
3,189
8,190
24,521
19,668
447,615
467,283
21
865
738
14,092
2,154
2,874
77
1,031
324
120
1,879
1,998
58,136
60,135
22
481
1,089
11,610
4,141
2,854
77
928
1,001
51
2,313
2,195
61,878
64,072
23
990
1,281
14,992
6,755
4,010
157
1,024
894
144
2,431
2,764
76,544
79,308
24
1,428
1,258
13,651
12,200
5,740
197
1,169
975
31
2,984
3,535
93,232
96,767
25
1,626
1,182
11,803
19,949
7,009
226
1,660
1,542
193
2,863
3,641
114,507
118,148
26
2,315
2,179
14,902
12,392
7,683
206
1,447
4,776
79
6,619
4,813
145,695
150,508
27
2,157
2,616
21,338
8,844
8,160
415
2,800
2,456
15
5,072
4,200
145,498
149,698
28
2,545
3,729
31,322
7,078
13,458
873
3,373
2,424
2,501
22,363
7,978
355,527
363,505
29
6,583
4,056
32,760
8,601
12,738
1,253
3,432
2,070
4,330
23,672
16,289
408,666
424,955
30
3,660
4,952
41,146
12,467
16,836
1,000
4,823
3,844
1,972
21,378
18,673
512,849
531,522
237
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan NO
PAGE
PIDE
PTRE
PRDE
PHRE
PSRE
PSWE
PEVE
PWRE
POTE
PDEX
GRES
REXP
PROC
PAGC
1
1.89
2.53
24.84
1.84
5.65
0.27
2.32
1.84
0.75
2.93
44.86
0.05
1.23
95.39
79.01
PUKC 9.40
2
1.43
2.43
19.09
3.59
5.31
0.32
2.79
0.89
0.89
3.14
39.88
0.05
1.51
91.23
76.06
19.67
3
2.02
1.42
18.20
5.26
4.75
0.09
3.50
1.01
0.20
5.22
41.67
0.03
1.40
90.98
74.67
20.65
4
1.22
0.91
14.42
11.30
5.91
0.22
3.81
1.76
0.17
4.46
44.17
0.04
1.26
89.55
72.44
21.77
5
1.72
1.21
10.62
14.31
4.39
0.13
3.69
1.30
0.15
4.93
42.44
0.03
1.36
91.12
73.39
22.75
6
1.60
2.06
8.63
10.57
5.09
0.34
1.51
2.46
0.31
5.49
38.07
0.03
1.63
86.03
65.67
36.43
7
1.40
1.54
6.64
9.41
3.77
0.28
1.77
1.05
0.03
4.64
30.53
0.03
2.27
83.04
54.93
36.53
8
1.20
0.79
3.25
3.46
3.63
0.29
1.53
0.31
0.73
5.51
20.70
0.06
3.83
75.84
56.29
41.63
9
1.85
1.23
5.64
3.91
2.22
0.30
1.11
0.65
1.59
4.64
23.14
0.03
3.32
72.61
46.21
30.09
10
0.95
1.75
4.69
1.97
3.01
0.35
2.06
0.29
1.36
10.71
27.14
0.03
2.68
63.30
40.94
39.91
11
1.56
1.62
19.98
6.87
4.49
0.49
1.63
1.12
0.19
5.34
43.29
0.02
1.32
91.15
79.74
19.91
12
1.21
0.94
16.68
5.19
8.76
0.55
2.11
1.44
0.38
6.57
43.83
0.03
1.28
93.56
84.40
17.31
13
1.05
1.14
14.43
8.16
7.36
0.69
2.02
1.69
0.13
6.01
42.70
0.03
1.34
91.87
81.97
26.59
14
0.93
1.27
12.60
10.25
6.24
0.79
1.93
1.85
0.00
6.71
42.57
0.03
1.35
90.90
78.79
22.59
15
1.93
1.89
11.76
5.36
8.04
0.37
1.56
1.40
0.29
4.15
36.76
0.03
1.72
92.15
82.42
21.04
16
1.93
1.68
7.45
7.42
3.54
0.30
1.27
3.33
0.41
4.97
32.31
0.04
2.10
90.37
78.93
19.49
17
1.92
0.79
6.43
6.77
2.99
0.31
0.76
1.40
0.60
5.64
27.61
0.04
2.62
82.08
64.87
25.68
18
0.58
1.27
4.96
3.17
1.48
0.42
1.09
0.71
1.36
5.49
20.52
0.03
3.87
70.64
47.21
37.96
19
0.77
1.26
11.30
5.36
1.99
0.12
2.03
0.81
1.50
4.96
30.11
0.04
2.32
67.79
40.50
39.23
20
0.67
3.10
10.91
4.12
3.15
0.88
1.53
0.73
1.88
5.64
32.61
0.04
2.07
56.57
34.23
55.71
21
1.45
1.24
23.70
3.62
4.83
0.13
1.73
0.55
0.20
3.16
40.63
0.03
1.46
88.08
72.51
31.92
22
0.76
1.72
18.39
6.56
4.52
0.12
1.47
1.59
0.08
3.66
38.87
0.04
1.57
84.14
69.10
37.19
23
1.24
1.61
18.81
8.48
5.03
0.20
1.29
1.12
0.18
3.05
41.01
0.04
1.44
78.44
54.58
55.57
24
1.51
1.33
14.45
12.92
6.08
0.21
1.24
1.03
0.03
3.16
41.96
0.04
1.38
84.60
62.94
49.31
25
1.46
1.06
10.62
17.95
6.31
0.20
1.49
1.39
0.17
2.58
43.23
0.03
1.31
86.94
66.31
54.22
26
1.63
1.53
10.49
8.73
5.41
0.14
1.02
3.36
0.06
4.66
37.04
0.03
1.70
79.35
58.68
85.95
27
1.55
1.88
15.35
6.36
5.87
0.30
2.01
1.77
0.01
3.65
38.76
0.03
1.58
67.77
32.60
47.10
28
0.80
1.18
9.88
2.23
4.24
0.28
1.06
0.76
0.79
7.05
28.28
0.02
2.54
63.27
36.60
42.25
29
1.75
1.08
8.71
2.29
3.39
0.33
0.91
0.55
1.15
6.29
26.46
0.04
2.78
63.26
41.77
46.03
30
0.69
0.93
7.74
2.35
3.17
0.19
0.91
0.72
0.37
4.02
21.09
0.04
3.74
67.54
50.20
32.78
238
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan NO
PWET
PDRY
PEST
PGRA
PDYK
PWOD
PTEM
PSWA
PHOU
PCUL
PUSE
PFOR
PLAPS
PVPS
PLAPL
PVPL
ROIBR
1
3.35
11.90
18.59
0.59
0.29
7.90
9.66
1.35
4.24
42.61
57.86
42.14
1.75
7.54
1.94
1.91
1.98
2
3.56
11.39
19.55
0.70
0.26
7.83
9.13
1.35
4.48
43.29
58.25
41.75
2.04
7.37
1.75
1.92
2.19
3
3.77
10.87
20.52
0.81
0.23
7.98
7.81
1.35
4.71
44.18
58.06
41.94
1.97
7.66
2.28
1.96
1.82
4
3.83
12.01
19.19
0.90
0.17
7.42
8.04
1.47
4.73
43.51
57.75
42.25
2.11
7.60
1.54
1.98
1.93
5
4.07
14.83
19.09
1.00
0.18
7.42
5.63
1.36
4.84
46.60
58.43
41.57
2.12
7.49
1.15
2.02
1.99
6
3.17
17.77
20.19
0.56
0.16
7.33
6.95
1.40
5.01
49.19
62.54
37.46
2.23
7.94
1.69
2.13
2.11
7
3.96
18.49
19.04
0.71
0.15
6.79
7.71
1.14
5.06
49.14
63.06
36.94
2.11
8.43
1.48
2.33
1.85
8
3.82
19.05
18.77
0.82
0.17
6.76
7.86
1.09
5.16
49.40
63.51
36.49
2.17
7.41
0.88
2.82
2.03
9
3.90
19.42
18.38
0.82
0.20
6.18
7.99
1.15
5.24
48.90
63.28
36.72
1.97
7.45
0.83
2.76
2.27
10
3.77
19.98
18.10
0.93
0.21
6.15
8.14
1.15
5.34
49.14
63.77
36.23
2.16
8.14
1.06
2.04
2.08
11
2.00
10.25
20.06
0.77
0.07
9.78
4.42
0.50
3.21
42.93
51.07
48.93
1.30
10.12
1.93
2.64
1.93
12
2.10
11.25
21.01
0.54
0.06
9.37
4.59
0.66
3.03
44.33
52.61
47.39
1.34
10.10
1.66
2.68
2.08
13
2.19
12.25
21.97
0.30
0.06
8.96
4.75
0.82
2.85
45.72
54.15
45.85
1.40
9.61
2.47
2.00
1.97
14
2.16
11.74
27.23
1.23
0.03
10.82
4.42
1.74
3.01
53.21
62.39
37.61
1.36
8.53
1.34
1.99
2.23
15
2.26
13.17
30.06
1.24
0.04
11.67
4.08
2.59
2.85
58.44
67.97
32.03
1.23
8.52
0.60
2.05
2.17
16
2.19
14.32
31.30
0.67
0.04
11.10
4.24
3.29
2.59
59.60
69.73
30.27
1.27
8.37
0.74
2.14
2.69
17
2.31
14.31
33.43
0.82
0.05
10.57
4.52
3.02
2.74
61.48
71.76
28.24
1.49
8.09
1.32
2.38
2.31
18
2.36
14.19
34.64
0.44
0.03
5.63
7.34
2.46
2.51
57.29
69.60
30.40
1.57
6.67
0.59
2.48
2.57
19
2.37
14.56
34.75
0.43
0.03
5.14
9.11
2.44
2.52
57.28
71.35
28.65
1.74
8.54
1.21
2.30
2.90
20
2.21
14.21
35.91
0.35
0.03
6.33
6.63
2.01
2.73
59.03
70.40
29.60
1.64
9.01
0.75
2.24
2.91
21
6.07
14.37
8.72
1.79
0.09
13.46
1.67
0.26
2.25
44.49
48.68
51.32
6.94
9.27
0.12
2.37
2.16
22
6.27
13.19
8.54
1.88
0.08
13.41
1.79
0.49
2.49
43.38
48.14
51.86
6.69
9.24
0.07
2.30
3.14
23
6.47
12.02
8.36
1.97
0.07
13.37
1.90
0.71
2.73
42.26
47.61
52.39
6.27
9.21
0.11
2.19
2.98
24
6.39
11.92
8.41
1.75
0.08
17.13
2.05
0.38
2.45
45.68
50.57
49.43
5.64
9.14
0.17
2.74
2.80
25
6.61
13.60
9.12
1.71
0.09
15.41
1.83
0.41
2.73
46.54
51.51
48.49
5.41
9.07
0.14
2.07
3.96
26
5.94
12.55
10.28
1.76
0.09
14.39
1.93
0.33
2.71
45.00
49.97
50.03
5.46
9.14
0.10
2.51
2.45
27
6.36
12.95
7.70
1.12
0.09
14.25
2.15
0.31
2.77
42.46
47.69
52.31
5.17
9.10
0.07
2.49
2.14
28
6.52
11.18
7.06
1.27
0.06
14.38
2.77
0.33
3.08
40.46
46.64
53.36
5.56
9.03
0.04
2.05
2.05
29
6.62
12.33
8.39
1.25
0.06
14.66
3.77
0.35
3.03
43.32
50.46
49.54
6.70
8.96
0.03
2.36
2.40
30
6.41
11.64
7.75
1.40
0.03
14.79
4.39
0.35
3.34
42.01
50.09
49.91
5.94
9.39
0.03
2.13
2.20
239
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan NO
PLAJG
PVJG
ROIJG
PLAKT
PVKT
ROIKT
PLAKD
PVKD
ROIKD
PLAUK
PVUK
ROIUK
PLAUJ
PVUJ
ROIUJ
1
1.28
1.85
0.72
0.47
0.91
2.80
0.92
0.88
2.03
0.38
11.13
0.26
0.77
9.05
0.37
2
1.99
1.88
0.88
0.49
0.95
4.19
0.94
0.98
2.32
0.58
11.33
0.32
0.72
9.15
0.46
3
2.06
1.87
0.78
0.47
0.97
3.32
0.59
1.00
3.28
0.66
11.57
0.30
0.88
10.30
0.48
4
2.20
1.91
0.71
0.69
0.96
3.40
0.69
0.87
3.27
0.73
10.30
0.27
1.05
9.35
0.44
5
2.58
4.42
0.78
0.58
1.06
4.34
0.67
0.64
2.33
0.91
15.45
0.39
0.93
16.63
0.57
6
2.07
1.76
0.75
0.42
0.99
4.35
0.38
0.87
2.62
0.63
13.80
0.37
0.59
9.33
0.48
7
1.59
1.84
0.68
0.37
0.97
5.20
0.24
0.94
2.95
0.62
10.94
0.33
0.53
9.23
0.43
8
1.21
1.91
0.67
0.36
1.00
5.45
0.11
0.91
2.97
0.55
10.43
0.35
0.45
9.68
0.42
9
1.33
1.87
0.67
0.41
0.99
5.47
0.13
0.94
3.08
0.60
10.97
0.35
0.48
9.60
0.41
10
1.33
1.88
0.73
0.42
0.98
5.13
0.17
0.91
3.39
0.53
11.52
0.38
0.43
9.50
0.45
11
0.41
1.49
0.96
0.14
1.36
4.13
0.28
1.22
2.08
0.95
11.95
0.32
0.13
5.77
0.40
12
0.50
1.47
1.11
0.15
1.09
5.28
0.38
1.11
1.93
0.88
11.70
0.29
0.15
5.62
0.48
13
0.77
1.41
1.01
0.11
1.15
3.47
0.32
1.10
2.50
0.53
11.71
0.38
0.07
7.63
0.54
14
0.47
1.50
1.04
0.08
1.24
3.51
0.20
1.06
3.49
0.33
11.17
0.45
0.05
7.64
0.53
15
0.44
2.46
0.84
0.09
1.81
5.21
0.21
0.93
1.94
0.13
10.00
0.38
0.05
10.09
0.51
16
0.43
2.08
1.12
0.07
1.39
6.46
0.26
1.13
2.56
0.13
12.65
0.40
0.06
8.85
0.59
17
0.40
1.99
1.01
0.06
1.09
6.28
0.07
1.16
2.60
0.11
13.61
0.49
0.05
9.18
0.56
18
0.32
1.81
1.12
0.08
1.05
6.41
0.03
1.30
3.61
0.16
10.95
0.65
0.07
8.33
0.58
19
0.30
1.99
1.14
0.07
1.03
5.93
0.02
1.11
3.54
0.14
10.56
0.61
0.08
8.38
0.58
20
0.23
2.62
1.22
0.04
1.06
6.18
0.01
1.26
3.48
0.12
12.32
0.71
0.14
8.41
0.68
21
0.36
2.59
1.03
0.19
1.09
7.04
0.77
1.15
1.52
0.10
12.69
0.38
0.04
11.03
0.51
22
0.34
2.50
1.20
0.20
1.09
6.48
0.66
1.16
2.21
0.10
12.65
0.50
0.04
10.70
0.66
23
0.31
2.32
1.18
0.20
1.09
6.39
0.48
1.19
1.98
0.10
12.45
0.49
0.04
10.80
0.75
24
0.25
1.99
1.07
0.22
1.10
6.23
0.21
1.35
1.81
0.10
12.09
0.49
0.05
10.59
0.78
25
0.51
2.24
1.25
0.16
0.97
6.87
0.29
1.15
2.18
0.13
12.64
0.57
0.05
10.41
0.77
26
0.36
2.31
0.81
0.19
1.01
4.76
0.31
1.23
1.64
0.13
12.43
0.35
0.06
9.89
0.51
27
0.31
2.28
0.80
0.15
1.04
4.21
0.05
1.20
3.06
0.11
12.40
0.36
0.07
10.11
0.53
28
0.31
2.65
0.85
0.16
1.12
4.42
0.05
1.18
2.87
0.10
12.27
0.41
0.08
10.35
0.58
29
0.27
2.60
0.75
0.14
1.12
4.23
0.03
1.24
2.43
0.13
12.48
0.43
0.09
11.17
0.62
30
0.43
4.58
0.79
0.17
1.75
4.65
0.02
1.56
2.45
0.21
12.38
0.40
0.11
10.26
0.63
240
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan NO
PLAKR
PVKR
ROIKR
PLAKP
PVKP
ROIKP
PLAKS
PVKS
ROIKS
PLAKM
PVKM
ROIKM
PLAKL
PVKL
ROIKL
1
2.88
0.27
2.96
6.46
0.20
9.25
0.25
0.02
1.89
0.44
0.09
4.62
0.55
1.85
0.37
2
2.35
0.42
3.40
6.89
0.29
9.59
0.43
0.02
1.81
0.44
0.17
6.50
0.47
1.91
0.36
3
3.30
0.43
4.87
4.65
0.43
5.44
0.19
0.15
1.40
0.49
0.28
7.01
0.64
0.53
0.60
4
2.55
0.51
3.86
5.27
0.42
5.15
0.38
0.20
2.41
0.47
0.11
5.50
0.57
0.39
0.87
5
3.16
0.50
4.10
6.28
0.45
9.28
0.40
0.05
3.16
0.49
0.46
3.56
0.55
0.60
0.90
6
3.76
0.51
2.85
7.18
0.36
5.51
1.64
0.04
2.11
0.53
0.37
2.51
0.57
0.45
0.92
7
5.38
0.40
3.13
7.14
0.37
1.84
1.60
0.02
1.75
0.73
0.27
2.41
0.63
0.55
0.30
8
4.06
0.92
2.92
7.84
0.40
1.81
1.72
0.04
1.57
0.66
0.46
2.08
0.68
0.70
0.31
9
4.00
0.46
3.75
8.57
0.48
1.78
1.95
0.05
1.80
0.46
0.74
1.87
0.49
1.08
0.36
10
3.98
0.52
4.72
10.31
0.29
2.50
1.72
0.02
2.17
0.63
0.55
1.75
0.67
0.18
0.37
11
12.84
0.35
4.14
1.23
0.20
12.45
1.90
0.34
2.64
4.05
0.29
9.12
0.48
0.13
0.44
12
12.92
0.35
4.81
1.21
0.12
12.30
2.24
1.57
3.09
4.12
0.29
13.79
0.48
0.13
0.46
13
15.14
0.36
6.55
1.11
0.13
7.05
3.10
1.42
2.53
4.00
0.32
12.94
0.47
0.15
1.09
14
15.89
0.35
5.77
1.13
0.13
6.95
3.21
2.04
2.97
4.03
0.32
11.66
0.46
0.16
1.07
15
15.86
0.36
4.79
1.10
0.14
10.14
3.22
2.95
3.69
4.03
0.34
12.82
0.47
0.15
0.80
16
15.14
0.37
4.48
1.09
0.30
7.68
2.60
3.20
2.93
4.07
0.38
4.14
0.25
0.11
1.27
17
15.34
0.32
2.41
1.16
0.33
5.11
2.46
5.37
2.32
4.11
0.38
3.44
0.22
0.17
0.40
18
17.20
0.32
4.89
1.20
0.30
3.71
2.67
1.88
1.99
4.19
0.37
3.53
0.20
0.23
0.40
19
17.50
0.33
5.49
1.30
0.28
3.33
1.17
4.28
2.75
3.67
0.29
3.03
0.39
0.12
0.49
20
17.70
0.33
6.55
1.33
0.28
3.71
0.75
6.78
3.04
3.62
0.35
2.81
0.56
0.07
0.52
21
1.45
0.34
1.76
1.08
0.37
8.67
0.00
0.33
1.12
0.86
0.49
6.35
1.13
0.55
0.45
22
1.54
0.33
1.77
1.13
0.36
9.46
0.00
1.50
1.13
1.03
0.43
10.60
1.08
0.51
0.54
23
1.56
0.37
3.01
0.97
0.43
5.46
0.01
1.33
1.45
1.12
0.38
10.04
1.14
0.50
0.62
24
1.56
0.27
1.90
1.14
0.30
5.06
0.06
2.03
1.37
1.09
0.34
8.49
1.15
0.37
0.50
25
1.68
0.55
2.62
1.23
0.43
5.90
0.66
1.32
2.02
1.18
0.42
7.46
1.10
0.57
0.91
26
1.64
0.74
1.22
1.35
0.58
6.63
0.73
1.61
1.48
1.26
0.39
3.58
1.07
0.75
0.64
27
1.68
0.52
1.67
1.50
0.47
4.31
0.88
1.34
2.62
1.26
0.48
2.90
1.08
0.47
0.45
28
2.03
0.37
4.13
2.55
0.19
3.10
0.32
5.12
2.27
2.17
0.23
2.95
1.02
0.59
0.45
29
2.00
0.34
2.01
2.02
0.36
2.98
0.99
4.21
2.28
1.79
0.42
2.71
1.00
0.53
0.41
30
2.02
0.34
2.47
2.16
0.40
2.98
1.70
3.81
2.49
1.63
0.26
2.26
1.03
0.56
0.43
241
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan NO
ROIKL
PLFOW
PVOW
RPIKO
PLFBD
PVBD
RPIKB
PPKOT
PKBOT
POTKM
SSPG
SSKB
SSTN
SSIK
SSHT
ECOS
SSNPT
1
0.37
0.14
82.08
388.70
0.44
57.48
720.15
6.13
8.02
8.78
27.23
8.48
3.73
3.29
3.50
46.21
53.79
2
0.36
0.14
79.19
358.25
0.45
66.78
663.75
4.92
8.96
8.79
26.81
8.83
3.70
3.02
3.47
45.83
54.17
3
0.60
0.11
107.41
469.64
0.45
64.02
757.40
3.93
11.24
9.02
25.86
8.84
3.55
2.61
3.35
44.20
55.80
4
0.87
0.15
93.33
429.71
0.43
119.16 1035.76
5.10
9.95
8.49
26.29
8.92
3.41
2.88
3.29
44.78
55.22
5
0.90
0.11
105.93
389.72
0.42
82.45
528.63
8.01
8.21
8.60
24.91
9.33
3.47
2.86
3.29
43.87
56.13
6
0.92
0.11
94.85
452.94
0.50
74.20
476.80
11.99
6.50
8.06
25.15
9.33
3.66
2.97
3.51
44.62
55.38
7
0.30
0.11
100.00
499.63
0.79
100.00
453.04
13.65
3.56
7.66
25.39
9.48
3.64
3.06
3.52
45.09
54.91
8
0.31
0.11
98.54
415.12
0.46
98.27
539.76
15.50
3.81
7.75
26.91
7.36
3.78
1.39
3.30
42.74
57.26
9
0.36
0.11
105.15
387.86
0.49
96.13
351.69
15.64
2.91
7.21
28.00
7.44
3.70
1.40
3.24
43.78
56.22
10
0.37
0.11
155.88
419.86
0.37
68.99
380.70
16.04
0.79
7.29
29.12
7.62
3.56
1.39
3.14
44.82
55.18
11
0.44
1.30
15.70
329.47
0.09
66.93
980.34
6.41
0.44
10.62
21.64
13.69
3.44
6.34
0.69
45.80
54.20
12
0.46
1.30
18.56
296.09
0.09
67.41
881.04
7.53
0.04
9.97
21.10
14.22
3.61
6.42
0.69
46.04
53.96
13
1.09
1.30
21.32
350.71
0.05
147.06
904.38
7.97
1.85
9.31
20.35
13.89
3.62
6.22
0.66
44.75
55.25
14
1.07
1.30
20.99
248.14
0.08
80.67
830.75
9.27
2.51
12.08
19.88
14.06
3.70
6.33
0.67
44.63
55.37
15
0.80
1.30
25.81
212.66
0.09
76.00
418.06
11.65
5.37
12.95
20.42
14.82
3.61
6.47
0.70
46.01
53.99
16
1.27
1.30
7.72
307.82
0.03
165.91
495.68
12.63
8.16
11.80
20.30
16.79
3.66
4.58
0.66
45.99
54.01
17
0.40
1.30
8.75
307.09
0.04
130.00
396.44
12.30
10.14
11.44
19.92
16.45
3.65
4.54
0.66
45.22
54.78
18
0.40
1.30
28.63
281.86
0.06
103.57
471.02
12.95
9.18
6.10
19.97
16.26
3.59
4.43
0.65
44.91
55.09
19
0.49
1.30
33.39
279.18
0.07
105.38
360.42
12.74
10.73
5.59
19.94
16.33
3.56
4.28
0.64
44.75
55.25
20
0.52
1.30
45.87
281.82
0.14
64.25
363.83
12.91
11.95
6.70
20.12
16.29
3.50
3.39
0.66
43.96
56.04
21
0.45
1.90
61.24
461.00
0.08
97.40
702.05
12.80
4.20
15.33
24.11
5.46
2.96
0.83
2.51
35.88
64.12
22
0.54
2.12
54.73
338.98
0.08
104.17
516.22
11.79
3.75
15.37
23.16
5.63
2.93
0.91
2.60
35.22
64.78
23
0.62
1.93
60.29
242.99
0.08
104.17
517.78
10.78
3.55
15.42
22.53
5.67
3.06
0.93
2.63
34.82
65.18
24
0.50
2.08
66.82
237.76
0.07
107.46
526.18
10.92
3.41
18.96
21.67
5.61
3.13
0.97
2.87
34.26
65.74
25
0.91
2.10
69.58
231.59
0.08
84.21
294.39
12.31
3.28
17.21
22.70
5.91
2.65
1.04
2.98
35.28
64.72
26
0.64
2.34
63.20
436.26
0.09
91.25
354.61
11.39
4.23
16.23
22.90
6.08
2.68
0.98
3.01
35.66
64.34
27
0.45
2.08
72.10
543.91
0.09
68.75
402.74
12.19
1.30
15.46
21.59
6.21
2.74
1.02
2.89
34.45
65.55
28
0.45
2.35
98.40
561.20
0.09
87.80
541.25
10.43
-1.03
15.70
21.28
6.44
2.75
1.04
2.93
34.44
65.56
29
0.41
2.08
119.30
479.74
0.08
101.32
355.23
11.64
0.57
15.97
21.22
6.63
2.73
1.04
2.94
34.57
65.43
30
0.43
2.08
127.74
531.50
0.08
77.46
393.56
10.67
-0.79
16.22
21.09
6.66
2.70
1.02
2.88
34.34
65.66
242
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan NO
DGDP
ECOG
PDBK
SEXR
PPOP
POPG
POPD
RJAK
REPG
LABS
ABA
ABT
DEPR
TPAK
UNEM
PPUK
PPAD
1
49.29
5.99
1.11
100.95
22.45
2.93
62.16
4.45
2.04
71.82
69.19
3.74
72.93
65.22
4.48
78.69
0.00
2
63.32
7.26
1.17
100.49
9.42
1.20
62.91
4.32
6.07
70.16
67.91
3.77
71.68
65.24
4.39
79.05
0.00
3
63.05
6.74
1.22
101.92
19.73
2.47
64.46
4.36
2.72
69.26
61.25
3.70
64.95
65.09
4.31
78.34
0.00
4
-3.58
-0.36
1.20
102.41
10.89
1.33
65.32
4.43
-0.27
71.05
63.96
3.65
67.61
64.94
4.71
78.65
0.00
5
-10.96
-1.10
1.17
102.16
14.61
1.76
66.47
4.46
-0.62
74.94
59.20
4.98
64.18
63.44
5.38
78.29
0.00
6
15.29
1.55
1.16
101.94
16.19
1.92
67.75
4.28
0.81
74.51
61.96
4.67
66.63
63.09
5.39
78.20
0.01
7
25.07
2.51
1.15
101.50
31.88
3.71
70.27
4.20
0.68
74.03
60.21
4.53
64.74
62.57
5.55
76.73
0.00
8
23.70
2.31
1.14
103.07
28.30
3.18
72.50
4.41
0.73
73.62
60.49
4.62
65.11
62.74
5.62
75.14
0.02
9
28.41
2.71
1.15
104.32
18.82
2.05
73.98
4.34
1.32
73.93
63.11
4.88
67.98
65.20
5.46
74.49
0.01
10
43.21
4.02
1.18
103.14
14.67
1.56
75.14
4.54
2.57
79.20
55.34
4.29
59.63
65.51
5.29
73.40
0.01
11
48.36
7.40
1.07
100.77
6.19
0.95
46.32
4.03
7.80
77.48
68.85
4.33
73.18
58.91
2.78
80.96
0.00
12
55.11
7.85
1.13
100.55
14.07
2.14
47.31
3.94
3.68
76.08
68.75
4.41
73.16
59.42
2.61
82.29
0.00
13
62.56
8.26
1.20
100.85
11.68
1.74
48.13
3.85
4.76
71.16
56.62
4.95
61.57
59.97
2.59
84.05
0.00
14
24.96
3.05
1.22
100.00
10.44
1.53
48.86
3.89
2.00
70.07
56.62
4.60
61.22
60.08
2.19
85.00
0.00
15
-34.84
-4.12
1.14
99.97
12.31
1.77
49.73
3.80
-2.33
65.58
54.68
5.90
60.58
60.67
4.42
85.68
0.00
16
13.41
1.66
1.15
100.05
10.07
1.42
50.44
3.87
1.16
70.28
55.35
6.43
61.78
59.89
4.00
85.96
0.01
17
25.65
3.12
1.17
100.05
9.03
1.26
51.07
3.83
2.48
74.89
51.24
3.89
55.13
58.16
3.58
87.82
0.01
18
22.92
2.70
1.19
99.99
7.33
1.01
51.59
3.78
2.68
76.61
51.90
5.19
57.09
59.62
3.65
85.39
0.01
19
24.65
2.83
1.21
100.04
9.44
1.29
52.25
3.74
2.20
77.23
51.25
5.13
56.39
58.56
2.86
85.14
0.02
20
27.08
3.02
1.22
98.90
11.01
1.48
53.02
3.65
2.04
77.24
49.87
5.80
55.67
58.97
3.00
83.11
0.02
21
56.94
6.98
1.11
94.68
7.74
1.00
83.99
4.72
7.01
61.85
72.07
6.48
78.54
57.41
3.63
85.02
0.00
22
61.53
7.05
1.18
94.77
7.36
0.94
84.78
4.68
7.52
67.35
70.55
7.17
77.72
54.09
3.75
85.03
0.00
23
70.12
7.51
1.25
94.01
7.83
0.99
85.62
4.62
7.60
67.89
69.55
8.55
78.09
54.89
2.61
85.00
0.00
24
45.89
4.57
1.30
94.14
8.40
1.05
86.52
4.58
4.35
66.36
65.84
8.56
74.39
54.27
5.07
85.01
0.00
25
-43.91
-4.18
1.24
93.90
5.83
0.72
87.14
4.55
-5.80
60.06
64.83
9.23
74.06
52.05
4.18
85.24
0.00
26
13.84
1.38
1.24
94.44
5.33
0.65
87.71
4.49
2.10
64.34
63.56
9.32
72.88
56.41
3.01
77.29
0.00
27
24.27
2.38
1.26
95.22
7.40
0.90
88.50
4.51
2.64
64.24
61.44
11.44
72.88
54.59
3.64
77.09
0.00
28
35.35
3.39
1.29
95.58
8.02
0.97
89.36
4.31
3.49
71.32
59.60
10.99
70.59
55.37
3.50
77.70
0.01
29
45.87 50.11
4.25 4.45
1.33 1.37
95.21 95.79
9.92 14.04
1.19 1.66
90.42 91.92
4.38 4.46
3.58 2.68
69.18 70.12
59.73 59.71
11.03 11.03
70.76 70.74
54.73 54.59
5.28 6.82
77.21 76.80
0.01 0.02
30
243
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan NO
PKYB
PMTN
RKBMT
INFL
SKBD
RSKB
RPLOG
UMR
UMRR
PFER
RPFER
RPSMN
AGWA
RAGWA
RWIND
1
2,098.6
403.1
5.21
8.83
11.25
2.42
4.36
3,000
2.74
446
0.41
0.18
1,800
1.64
1.67
2
2,039.2
425.5
4.79
8.07
15.00
6.93
5.03
3,500
3.22
469
0.43
0.19
1,812
1.67
1.93
3
1,972.9
433.1
4.56
5.18
14.00
8.82
5.85
3,850
3.65
521
0.49
0.20
1,969
1.87
1.96
4
1,972.9
442.8
4.46
9.21
19.00
9.79
6.05
5,100
4.63
573
0.52
0.20
2,038
1.85
2.50
5
2,347.2
485.9
4.83
84.10
51.00
(33.10)
1.59
5,860
0.93
1,033
0.16
0.05
3,804
0.60
1.54
6
2,980.8
497.6
5.99
0.47
13.08
12.61
16.06
6,000
5.97
1,362
1.36
0.40
5,620
5.59
1.07
7
3,146.5
489.7
6.43
8.21
13.50
5.29
18.54
6,920
6.35
1,377
1.26
0.40
6,286
5.77
1.10
8
3,544.5
577.9
6.13
10.58
17.88
7.30
18.33
9,600
8.58
1,406
1.26
0.41
7,502
6.71
1.28
9
3,814.5
858.7
4.44
10.11
13.50
3.39
18.43
11,232
10.10
1,451
1.30
0.41
8,695
7.82
1.29
10
3,625.0
1,127.6
3.21
4.14
12.75
8.61
18.93
12,800
12.27
1,453
1.39
0.57
9,355
8.97
1.37
11
2,249.5
488.3
4.61
8.52
11.25
2.73
6.01
3,000
2.74
374
0.34
0.20
2,079
1.90
1.44
12
2,684.4
521.6
5.15
7.79
15.00
7.21
7.00
3,300
3.04
413
0.38
0.22
2,512
2.32
1.31
13
2,912.4
545.7
5.34
5.00
15.00
10.00
8.06
3,600
3.42
454
0.43
0.23
2,705
2.57
1.33
14
3,009.2
551.2
5.46
9.89
26.00
16.11
8.42
4,780
4.31
479
0.43
0.23
2,811
2.53
1.70
15
3,774.3
604.4
6.24
72.31
65.00
(7.31)
4.17
5,500
1.52
1,067
0.30
0.09
3,973
1.10
1.38
16
4,212.5
585.1
7.20
0.49
25.00
24.51
22.56
6,000
5.97
1,017
1.01
0.39
5,858
5.83
1.02
17
5,412.8
621.7
8.71
8.40
13.22
4.82
26.45
6,920
6.34
1,038
0.95
0.40
6,841
6.27
1.01
18
6,025.3
879.6
6.85
10.11
17.88
7.77
28.43
9,800
8.81
1,032
0.93
0.41
8,177
7.35
1.20
19
4,846.4
1,400.5
3.46
12.62
15.48
2.86
32.76
12,160
10.63
1,034
0.90
0.44
10,593
9.26
1.15
20
6,250.0
1,489.4
4.20
3.79
7.00
3.21
31.75
15,600
15.01
1,036
1.00
0.54
12,317
11.85
1.27
21
2,634.9
411.9
6.40
8.37
11.25
2.88
7.23
2,500
2.29
369
0.34
0.17
2,014
1.85
1.24
22
2,634.9
415.8
6.34
8.36
15.00
6.64
7.41
3,250
2.98
369
0.34
0.21
2,346
2.15
1.39
23
2,634.9
406.1
6.49
7.32
14.50
7.18
8.22
3,600
3.34
414
0.38
0.22
2,570
2.38
1.40
24
2,588.3
397.2
6.52
10.72
22.50
11.78
9.17
4,760
4.25
476
0.42
0.22
2,854
2.55
1.67
25
3,306.4
480.0
6.89
87.20
58.00
(29.20)
1.86
5,480
0.70
654
0.08
0.04
3,638
0.47
1.51
26
3,594.3
507.3
7.09
4.23
19.04
14.81
17.59
6,400
6.13
1,253
1.20
0.36
4,991
4.78
1.28
27
3,031.4
574.5
5.28
10.99
13.36
2.37
16.80
8,000
7.12
1,257
1.12
0.35
6,424
5.72
1.25
28
3,594.3
830.5
4.33
9.86
17.88
8.02
18.58
10,000
9.01
1,311
1.18
0.39
7,307
6.59
1.37
29
3,031.4
1,456.2
2.08
10.22
14.49
4.27
18.51
15,400
13.83
1,385
1.24
0.43
9,386
8.43
1.64
30
3,594.3
1,305.7
2.75
5.55
9.88
4.33
22.63
17,664
16.68
1,385
1.31
0.51
11,536
10.90
1.53
244
Lampiran 3. Program Estimasi Blok Alokasi Pengeluaran Pemerintah Menggunakan Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR)
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; RUN; DATA EXPEN; SET REKAP; PPAD = (0.001*PAD)/GDP; TEXP = CEXP + DEXP; BREV = TREV ‐ PAD; GRES = PAD/BREV; REXP = CEXP/DEXP; PAGE = (AGDE/TEXP)*100; PIDE = (IDDE/TEXP)*100; PTRE = (TRDE/TEXP)*100; PRDE = (RDDE/TEXP)*100; PHRE = (HRDE/TEXP)*100; PSRE = (SRDE/TEXP)*100; PSWE = (SWDE/TEXP)*100; PEVE = (EVDE/TEXP)*100; PWRE = (WRDE/TEXP)*100; POTE = (OTDE/TEXP)*100; PROC = (INMC/TCRE)*100; PAGC = (AGRC/TCRE)*100; PUKC = (UKMC/TCRE)*100; PDEX = PAGE + PWRE + PHRE + PSWE + PEVE + PRDE + PSRE + PTRE + PIDE + POTE; ; run;
PROC SYSLIN SUR DATA=EXPEN; endogenous PAGE PWRE PSWE PHRE PSRE PEVE PRDE PTRE PIDE POTE PDEX ; instruments REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR ; /*Blok Alokasi Fiskal*/ model PAGE = REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PIDE = REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PWRE = REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PEVE = REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PRDE = REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PTRE = REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PHRE = REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PSWE = REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PSRE = REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model POTE = REXP GRES DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; identity PDEX = PAGE + PWRE + PHRE + PSWE + PEVE + PRDE + PSRE + PTRE + PIDE + POTE; TITLE Analisis FAKTOR MEMPENGARUHI ALOKASI PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH; run;
245
Lampiran 4. Program Estimasi Blok Alokasi Penggunaan Lahan Menggunakan Metode Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; RUN; DATA GUNA; RPLO = PLOG ‐ (0.01*INFL*PLOG); RPLOG = RPLO/1000; RUMR = UMR ‐ (0.01*INFL*UMR); UMRR = RUMR/1000; RPFE = PFER ‐ (0.01*INFL*PFER); RPFER = RPFE/1000; RPSM = PSMN ‐ (0.01*INFL*PSMN); RPSMN = RPSM/1000; RAGW = AGWA ‐ (0.01*INFL*AGWA); RAGWA = RAGW/1000; LKAW = LREG ‐ LTNKS; PWET = (WETL/LKAW)*100; PDRY = (DRYL/LKAW)*100; PEST = (ESTL/LKAW)*100; PGRA = (GRAS/LKAW)*100; PDYK = (DYPO/LKAW)*100; PWOD = (WOOD/LKAW)*100; PTEM = (TEMP/LKAW)*100; PSWA = (SWAM/LKAW)*100; PHOU = (HOUS/LKAW)*100; PCUL = PWET + PDRY + PEST + PGRA + PDYK + PWOD; PUSE = PCUL + PTEM + PSWA + PHOU; PFOR = 100 ‐ PUSE; SSPG = (DPSP/GDP)*100; SSKB = (DPSK/GDP)*100; SSTN = (DPST/GDP)*100; SSIK = (DPSI/GDP)*100; SSHT = (DPSH/GDP)*100; ECOS = SSPG + SSKB + SSTN + SSIK + SSHT;
DGDP = GDP‐GDP1; ECOG = (DGDP/GDP1)*100; PDBK = GDP/POP; SEXR = (PLK/PWN)*100; PPOP = POP‐POP1; POPG = (PPOP/POP1)*100; POPD = (POP/LKAW)*100; RJAK = POP/JRTG; REPG = ECOG/POPG; LABS = (LAGR/WORK)*100; PPAD = (0.001*PAD)/GDP; TEXP = CEXP + DEXP; BREV = TREV ‐ PAD; GRES = PAD/BREV; REXP = CEXP/DEXP; PAGE = (AGDE/TEXP)*100; PIDE = (IDDE/TEXP)*100; PTRE = (TRDE/TEXP)*100; PRDE = (RDDE/TEXP)*100; PHRE = (HRDE/TEXP)*100; PSRE = (SRDE/TEXP)*100; PSWE = (SWDE/TEXP)*100; PEVE = (EVDE/TEXP)*100;
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
PWRE = (WRDE/TEXP)*100; POTE = (OTDE/TEXP)*100; PROC = (INMC/TCRE)*100; PAGC = (AGRC/TCRE)*100; PUKC = (UKMC/TCRE)*100;
246
PDEX = PAGE + PWRE + PHRE + PSWE + PEVE + PRDE + PSRE + PTRE + PIDE + POTE; ; run; PROC SYSLIN SUR DATA=GUNA ; endogenous PWET PDRY PEST PGRA PDYK PWOD PTEM PSWA PHOU PCUL PUSE PFOR; instruments ECOG POPG POPD SSPG SSKB SSIK SSTN ECOS JRTG RAGWA RPFER RSKB PAGE PTRE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR; /*Blok Penggunaan Lahan*/ model PWET = ECOG POPG POPD SSPG RAGWA RPFER RSKB PAGE PTRE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW;
model PDRY = ECOG POPG POPD SSPG RAGWA RPFER RSKB PAGE PTRE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model PEST = ECOG POPG POPD SSKB RAGWA RPFER RSKB PAGE PTRE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model PDYK = ECOG POPG POPD SSIK RAGWA RPFER RSKB PAGE PTRE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model PGRA = ECOG POPG POPD SSTN RAGWA RPFER RSKB PAGE PTRE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model PWOD = ECOG POPG POPD SSHT RAGWA RPFER RSKB PAGE PTRE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model PTEM = ECOG POPG POPD ECOS RAGWA RPFER RSKB PAGE PTRE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model PSWA = ECOG POPG POPD ECOS RAGWA RPFER RSKB PAGE PTRE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model PHOU = ECOG POPG POPD JRTG RPSMN RPLOG UMRR RSKB PTRE PRDE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; identity PCUL = PWET + PDRY + PEST + PWOD + PDYK + PGRA; identity PUSE = PCUL + PTEM + PSWA + PHOU; identity PFOR = 100‐ PUSE; TITLE Analisis BLOK ALOKASI PENGGUNAAN LAHAN; run;
247
Lampiran 5. Program Estimasi Blok Pilihan Komoditas Menggunakan Metode Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR)
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; RUN; DATA PILIH; ROIBR = PBER/PFER; ROIKR = PKRT/PFER; ROIJG = PJGG/PFER; ROIKT = PKCT/PFER; ROIKL = PKLP/PFER; ROIKS = PMSWT/PFER; ROIUJ = PUBJ/PFER; ROIKP = PKOP/PFER; ROIKD = PKED/PFER; ROIUK = PUBK/PFER; ROIKM = PKMN/PFER; RPIKB = (PIKB/PBER)*100; RPIKO = (PIKO/PBER)*100; RKBMT = PKYB/PMTN; ROIBR = PBER/PFER; RSKB = SKBD ‐ INFL; RUMR = UMR ‐ (0.01*INFL*UMR); UMRR = RUMR/1000; RAGW = AGWA ‐ (0.01*INFL*AGWA); RAGWA = RAGW/1000; LKAW = LREG ‐ LTNKS; PWET = (WETL/LKAW)*100; PDRY = (DRYL/LKAW)*100; PEST = (ESTL/LKAW)*100; PGRA = (GRAS/LKAW)*100; PDYK = (DYPO/LKAW)*100; PWOD = (WOOD/LKAW)*100; PLAPS = (LAPS/LKAW)*100; PLAPL = (LAPL/LKAW)*100; PLAJG = (LAJG/LKAW)*100; PLAKT = (LAKT/LKAW)*100;
PLAKD = (LAKD/LKAW)*100; PLAUK = (LAUK/LKAW)*100; PLAUJ = (LAUJ/LKAW)*100; PLAKR = (LAKR/LKAW)*100; PLAKP = (LAKP/LKAW)*100; PLAKS = (LAKS/LKAW)*100; PLAKM = (LAKM/LKAW)*100; PLAKL = (LAKL/LKAW)*100; PLFOW = (LFOW/LKAW)*100; PLFBD = (LFBD/LKAW)*100; PPKOT = PDRY‐PLAPL‐PLAJG‐PLAKT‐PLAKD‐PLAUJ‐PLAUK; PKBOT = PEST‐PLAKR‐PLAKS‐PLAKL‐PLAKP‐PLAKM; POTKM = PCUL‐PWET‐PDRY‐PEST; PPAD = (0.001*PAD)/GDP; TEXP = CEXP + DEXP; REXP = CEXP/DEXP; PAGE = (AGDE/TEXP)*100; PIDE = (IDDE/TEXP)*100; PTRE = (TRDE/TEXP)*100; PRDE = (RDDE/TEXP)*100; PHRE = (HRDE/TEXP)*100; PSRE = (SRDE/TEXP)*100; PSWE = (SWDE/TEXP)*100;
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
PEVE = (EVDE/TEXP)*100; PWRE = (WRDE/TEXP)*100; POTE = (OTDE/TEXP)*100; PROC = (INMC/TCRE)*100; PAGC = (AGRC/TCRE)*100; PUKC = (UKMC/TCRE)*100; PDEX = PAGE + PWRE + PHRE + PSWE + PEVE + PRDE + PSRE + PTRE + PIDE + POTE;
248
; run; PROC SYSLIN SUR DATA=PILIH ; endogenous PLAPS PLAPL PLAJG PLAKT PLAKD PLAUJ PLAUK PPKOT PLAKR PLAKS PLAKL PLAKP PLAKM PKBOT PLFBD PLFOW; instruments PVPS PVPL PVJG PVKT PVKD PVUK PVUJ PVKR PVKS PVKP PVKM PVKL ROIBR ROIJG ROIKT ROIKD ROIUK ROIUJ PVKR PVKS PVKP PVKM PVKL ROIKR ROIKS ROIKP ROIKL ROIKM RPIKB RPIKO PVBD PVOW PEST SKBD RAGWA RSKB PWET PDRY PDYK RHSTN DEGTN PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR; /*Blok Pilihan Komoditas*/ model PLAPS = ROIBR PVPS PWET RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PLAPL = ROIBR PVPL PDRY RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PLAJG = ROIJG PVJG PDRY RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PLAKT = ROIKT PVKT PDRY RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PLAKD = ROIKD PVKD PDRY RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw;
model PLAUJ = ROIUJ PVUJ PDRY RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PLAUK = ROIUK PVUK PDRY RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PLAKR = ROIKR PVKR PEST RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PLAKS = ROIKS PVKS PEST RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PLAKL = ROIKL PVKL PEST RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PLAKP = ROIKP PVKP PEST RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PLAKM = ROIKM PVKM PEST RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE PTRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; Model PLFBD = RPIKB PVBD PWET PDYK RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; Model PLFOW = RPIKO PVOW PSWA RSKB RAGWA PAGC PAGE PWRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; identity PPKOT = PDRY ‐ PLAPL ‐ PLAJG ‐ PLAKT ‐ PLAKD ‐ PLAUJ ‐ PLAUK; identity PKBOT = PEST ‐ PLAKR ‐ PLAKS ‐ PLAKL ‐ PLAKP ‐ PLAKM; TITLE Analisis BLOK PILIHAN KOMODITAS; run;
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Lampiran 6. Program Estimasi Blok Struktur Output Kawasan Menggunakan Metode Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; RUN; DATA STRUKTUR; SET REKAP; LKAW = LREG ‐ LTNKS; PWET = (WETL/LKAW)*100; PDRY = (DRYL/LKAW)*100; PEST = (ESTL/LKAW)*100; PGRA = (GRAS/LKAW)*100; PDYK = (DYPO/LKAW)*100; PWOD = (WOOD/LKAW)*100; PTEM = (TEMP/LKAW)*100; PSWA = (SWAM/LKAW)*100; PHOU = (HOUS/LKAW)*100; PCUL = PWET + PDRY + PEST + PGRA + PDYK + PWOD; PUSE = PCUL + PTEM + PSWA + PHOU; PFOR = 100 ‐ PUSE; PLAPS = (LAPS/LKAW)*100; PLAPL = (LAPL/LKAW)*100; PLAJG = (LAJG/LKAW)*100; PLAKT = (LAKT/LKAW)*100; PLAKD = (LAKD/LKAW)*100; PLAUK = (LAUK/LKAW)*100; PLAUJ = (LAUJ/LKAW)*100; PLAKR = (LAKR/LKAW)*100; PLAKP = (LAKP/LKAW)*100; PLAKS = (LAKS/LKAW)*100; PLAKM = (LAKM/LKAW)*100; PLAKL = (LAKL/LKAW)*100; PLFOW = (LFOW/LKAW)*100; PLFBD = (LFBD/LKAW)*100; PPKOT = PDRY ‐ PLAPL ‐ PLAJG ‐ PLAKT ‐ PLAKD ‐ PLAUJ ‐ PLAUK;
PKBOT = PEST ‐ PLAKR ‐ PLAKS ‐ PLAKL ‐ PLAKP ‐ PLAKM; POTKM = PCUL ‐ PWET ‐ PDRY ‐ PEST; DEGT = LTNKS ‐ HTNK; DEGTN = (DEGT/LTNKS)*100; SSPG = (DPSP/GDP)*100; SSKB = (DPSK/GDP)*100; SSTN = (DPST/GDP)*100; SSIK = (DPSI/GDP)*100; SSHT = (DPSH/GDP)*100; ECOS = SSPG + SSKB + SSTN + SSIK + SSHT; SSNPT = 100 ‐ ECOS; PAGE = (AGDE/TEXP)*100; PTRE = (TRDE/TEXP)*100; PRDE = (RDDE/TEXP)*100; PWRE = (WRDE/TEXP)*100; PAGC = (AGRC/TCRE)*100; PDEX = PAGE + PWRE + PHRE + PSWE + PEVE + PRDE + PSRE + PTRE + PIDE + POTE; ; run; Lampiran 6. Lanjutan PROC SYSLIN SUR DATA=STRUKTUR; endogenous SSPG SSKB SSTN SSIK SSHT SSNPT ECOS; instruments PLAPS PLAPL PLAJG PLAKT PLAKD PLAUJ PLAUK PPKOT PLAKR PLAKS PLAKP PLAKL PLAKM PKBOT PGRA POPS POPK POPM PDYK PLFOW PLFBD PFOR PWOD PRLG PRSW HSTNK PAGE PAGC DEGTN RAGWA RPFER RSKB PAGE PTRE PAGC DESE KRIS YEAR;
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/*Struktur Output*/ model SSPG = SSNPT PLAPS PLAPL PLAJG PLAKT PLAKD PLAUJ PLAUK PPKOT DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model SSKB = SSNPT PLAKR PLAKS PLAKP PLAKL PLAKM PKBOT DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model SSTN = SSNPT PGRA POPS POPK POPM PAGE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model SSIK = SSNPT PDYK PLFOW PLFBD DEGTN PAGE PAGC PWRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; model SSHT = SSNPT PWOD PFOR LHPHS PAGE PAGC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /DW; identity ECOS = SSPG + SSKB + SSTN + SSIK + SSHT; identity SSNPT = 100 ‐ ECOS; TITLE Analisis BLOK STRUKTUR OUTPUT; run;
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Lampiran 7. Program Estimasi Blok Alokasi Kredit, Ekonomi dan Tenaga Kerja serta Dagradasi Taman Nasional Menggunakan Metode Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; RUN; DATA EKON; RSKB = SKBD ‐ INFL; RPLO = PLOG ‐ (0.01*INFL*PLOG); RPLOG = RPLO/1000; RUMR = UMR ‐ (0.01*INFL*UMR); UMRR = RUMR/1000; RAGW = AGWA ‐ (0.01*INFL*AGWA); RAGWA = RAGW/1000; RWIND = UMRR/RAGWA; LKAW = LREG ‐ LTNKS; PWET = (WETL/LKAW)*100; PDRY = (DRYL/LKAW)*100; PEST = (ESTL/LKAW)*100; PGRA = (GRAS/LKAW)*100; PDYK = (DYPO/LKAW)*100; PWOD = (WOOD/LKAW)*100; PTEM = (TEMP/LKAW)*100; PSWA = (SWAM/LKAW)*100; PHOU = (HOUS/LKAW)*100; PCUL = PWET + PDRY + PEST + PGRA + PDYK + PWOD; PUSE = PCUL + PTEM + PSWA + PHOU; PFOR = 100 ‐ PUSE; DEGH = HTK93‐HSTNK; DEGHS = (DEGH/HTK93)*100; DEGT = LTNKS ‐ HTNK; DEGTN = (DEGT/LTNKS)*100; RHSTN = (HSTNK/LTNKS)*100; PHSTN = (HSTNK/LKAW)*100; SSPG = (DPSP/GDP)*100; SSKB = (DPSK/GDP)*100; SSTN = (DPST/GDP)*100; SSIK = (DPSI/GDP)*100;
SSHT = (DPSH/GDP)*100; ECOS = SSPG + SSKB + SSTN + SSIK + SSHT; DGDP = GDP‐GDP1; ECOG = (DGDP/GDP1)*100; PDBK = GDP/POP; SEXR = (PLK/PWN)*100; PPOP = POP‐POP1; POPG = (PPOP/POP1)*100; POPD = (POP/LKAW)*100; RJAK = POP/JRTG; REPG = ECOG/POPG; LABS = LAGR/WORK)*100; ABA = PK15/PUPR)*100; ABT = PB65/PUPR)*100; DEPR = ABA + ABT; TPAK = (LFOR/PUK)*100; UNEM = (LFWR/LFOR)*100; PPUK = (PUK/POP)*100; PPAD = (0.001*PAD)/GDP; TEXP = CEXP + DEXP; BREV = TREV ‐ PAD; GRES = PAD/BREV;
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
REXP = CEXP/DEXP; PAGE = (AGDE/TEXP)*100; PIDE = (IDDE/TEXP)*100; PTRE = (TRDE/TEXP)*100; PRDE = (RDDE/TEXP)*100; PHRE = (HRDE/TEXP)*100; PSRE = (SRDE/TEXP)*100; PSWE = (SWDE/TEXP)*100; PEVE = (EVDE/TEXP)*100;
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PWRE = (WRDE/TEXP)*100; PROC = (INMC/TCRE)*100; PAGC = (AGRC/TCRE)*100; PUKC = (UKMC/TCRE)*100; PDEX = PAGE + PWRE + PHRE + PSWE + PEVE + PRDE + PSRE + PTRE + PIDE + POTE;
; run; PROC SYSLIN 2SLS DATA=EKON ; endogenous PAGC PUKC PROC DEPR TPAK LABS UNEM PDBK ECOG RHSTN DEGTN; instruments RSKB PCUL PFOR PDEX GRES PAGE PWRE PIDE PSWE PHRE PTRE PSRE POPG PPUK RJAK SEXR RWIND PPAD RKBMT LHPHS REPG DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR; /*Blok Kredit Perbankan*/ model PROC = RSKB REPG PDBK ECOS PIDE PTRE PRDE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PUKC = RSKB PROC REPG ECOS PIDE PTRE PRDE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PAGC = RSKB PROC PUKC ECOS PAGE PTRE PRDE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw;
/*Blok Ekonomi dan Tenaga Kerja*/ model ECOG = ECOS TPAK LABS PPAD PSRE PUKC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model PDBK = REPG DEPR RWIND PHRE PIDE PROC PUKC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model DEPR = PPUK POPG RJAK PSWE PHRE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model TPAK = DEPR SEXR RJAK PSWE PHRE PIDE PUKC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model LABS = ECOS TPAK RWIND PAGE PIDE PAGC PROC PUKC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model UNEM = UMRR REPG TPAK LABS PPUK PDEX PIDE PROC PUKC DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; /*Blok Degradasi Taman Nasional*/ Model DEGHS = PFOR REPG UNEM RPLOG RKBMT LHPHS DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model RHSTN = DEGHS REPG RPLOG LHPHS PEVE DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; model DEGTN = RHSTN PDBK UNEM RPLOG RKBMT LHPHS DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR /dw; TITLE Analisis BLOK KREDIT, EKONOMI DAN TENAGA KERJA SERTA DEGRADASI TAMAN NASIONAL; run;
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Lampiran 8. Hasil Estimasi Metode Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) dan Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS)
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Lampiran 9. Program Simulasi Dasar dan Evaluasi Dampak Kebijakan Alokasi Pengeluaran Pemerintah Daerah OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; RUN; DATA SIMDAS; SET REKAP; ROIBR = PBER/PFER; ROIKR = PKRT/PFER; ROIJG = PJGG/PFER; ROIKT = PKCT/PFER; ROIKL = PKLP/PFER; ROIKS = PMSWT/PFER; ROIUJ = PUBJ/PFER; ROIKP = PKOP/PFER; ROIKD = PKED/PFER; ROIUK = PUBK/PFER; ROIKM = PKMN/PFER; RPIKB = (PIKB/PBER)*100; RPIKO = (PIKO/PBER)*100; RKBMT = PKYB/PMTN; RSKB = SKBD ‐ INFL; RPLO = PLOG ‐ (0.01*INFL*PLOG); RPLOG = RPLO/1000; RUMR = UMR ‐ (0.01*INFL*UMR); UMRR = RUMR/1000; RPFE = PFER ‐ (0.01*INFL*PFER); RPFER = RPFE/1000; RPSM = PSMN ‐ (0.01*INFL*PSMN); RPSMN = RPSM/1000; RAGW = AGWA ‐ (0.01*INFL*AGWA); RAGWA = RAGW/1000; RWIND = UMRR/RAGWA; LKAW = LREG ‐ LTNKS; PWET = (WETL/LKAW)*100; PDRY = (DRYL/LKAW)*100; PEST = (ESTL/LKAW)*100; PGRA = (GRAS/LKAW)*100; PDYK = (DYPO/LKAW)*100; PWOD = (WOOD/LKAW)*100;
PTEM = (TEMP/LKAW)*100; PSWA = (SWAM/LKAW)*100; PHOU = (HOUS/LKAW)*100; PCUL = PWET + PDRY + PEST + PGRA + PDYK + PWOD; PUSE = PCUL + PTEM + PSWA + PHOU; PFOR = 100 ‐ PUSE; PLAPS = (LAPS/LKAW)*100; PLAPL = (LAPL/LKAW)*100; PLAJG = (LAJG/LKAW)*100; PLAKT = (LAKT/LKAW)*100; PLAKD = (LAKD/LKAW)*100; PLAUK = (LAUK/LKAW)*100; PLAUJ = (LAUJ/LKAW)*100; PLAKR = (LAKR/LKAW)*100; PLAKP = (LAKP/LKAW)*100; PLAKS = (LAKS/LKAW)*100; PLAKM = (LAKM/LKAW)*100; PLAKL = (LAKL/LKAW)*100; PLFOW = (LFOW/LKAW)*100; PLFBD = (LFBD/LKAW)*100; PPKOT = PDRY ‐ PLAPL ‐ PLAJG ‐ PLAKT ‐ PLAKD ‐ PLAUJ ‐ PLAUK; PKBOT = PEST ‐ PLAKR ‐ PLAKS ‐ PLAKL ‐ PLAKP ‐ PLAKM; POTKM = PCUL ‐ PWET ‐ PDRY ‐ PEST; DEGH = HTK93‐HSTNK; DEGHS = (DEGH/HTK93)*100; DEGT = LTNKS ‐ HTNK; DEGTN = (DEGT/LTNKS)*100; RHSTN = (HSTNK/LTNKS)*100; PHSTN = (HSTNK/LKAW)*100; SSPG = (DPSP/GDP)*100; SSKB = (DPSK/GDP)*100; SSTN = (DPST/GDP)*100; SSIK = (DPSI/GDP)*100; SSHT = (DPSH/GDP)*100; ECOS = SSPG + SSKB + SSTN + SSIK + SSHT; SSNPT = 100 ‐ ECOS; DGDP = GDP‐GDP1;
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ECOG = (DGDP/GDP1)*100; PDBK = GDP/POP; SEXR = (PLK/PWN)*100; PPOP = POP‐POP1; POPG = (PPOP/POP1)*100; POPD = (POP/LKAW)*100; RJAK = POP/JRTG; REPG = ECOG/POPG; LABS = (LAGR/WORK)*100; ABA = (PK15/PUPR)*100; ABT = (PB65/PUPR)*100; DEPR = ABA + ABT; TPAK = (LFOR/PUK)*100; UNEM = (LFWR/LFOR)*100; PPUK = (PUK/POP)*100; PPAD = (0.001*PAD)/GDP; TEXP = CEXP + DEXP; BREV = TREV ‐ PAD; GRES = PAD/BREV; REXP = CEXP/DEXP; PAGE = (AGDE/TEXP)*100; PIDE = (IDDE/TEXP)*100; PTRE = (TRDE/TEXP)*100; PRDE = (RDDE/TEXP)*100; PHRE = (HRDE/TEXP)*100; PSRE = (SRDE/TEXP)*100; PSWE = (SWDE/TEXP)*100; PEVE = (EVDE/TEXP)*100; PWRE = (WRDE/TEXP)*100; POTE = (OTDE/TEXP)*100; PDEX = PAGE + PWRE + PHRE + PSWE + PEVE + PRDE + PSRE + PTRE + PIDE + POTE; PROC = (INMC/TCRE)*100; PAGC = (AGRC/TCRE)*100; PUKC = (UKMC/TCRE)*100;
/*RESPESIFIKASI*/ REPG = ECOG/POPG; RWIND = UMRR/RAGWA; REXP = CEXP/DEXP; ; /*Simulasi Kebijakan
Kebijakan prioritas tanpa realokasi 1. TRDE = TRDE + (0.05*CEXP); DEXP = DEXP – (0.05*CEXP); 2. RDDE = RDDE + (0.05*CEXP); DEXP = DEXP – (0.05*CEXP); 3. HRDE = HRDE + (0.05*CEXP); DEXP = DEXP – (0.05*CEXP); Kebijakan realokasi tanpa prioritas 1. DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.05); CEXP = CEXP*0.95; 2. DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.10); CEXP = CEXP*0.90; 3. DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.15); CEXP = CEXP*0.85; Kebijakan kombinasi realokasi dan prioritas 1. TRDE = TRDE + (CEXP*0.05); DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.10); CEXP = CEXP*0.85; 2. TRDE = TRDE + (CEXP*0.10); DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.05); CEXP = CEXP*0.85; 3. RDDE = RDDE + (CEXP*0.05); DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.10); CEXP = CEXP*0.85; 4. RDDE = RDDE + (CEXP*0.10); DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.05); CEXP = CEXP*0.85; 5. HRDE = HRDE + (CEXP*0.05); DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.10); CEXP = CEXP*0.85; 6. HRDE = HRDE + (CEXP*0.10); DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.05); CEXP = CEXP*0.85; Kebijakan pembangunan terintegrasi 1. HRDE = HRDE + (CEXP*0.15); DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.05); CEXP = CEXP*0.80; */ RUN; PROC SIMNLIN SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL OUT=SIMSDM; endogenous PAGE PIDE PWRE PTRE PRDE PHRE PSRE PSWE PEVE POTE PDEX PROC PUKC PAGC PWET PDRY PEST PDYK PGRA PTEM PWOD PSWA
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PHOU PCUL PUSE PLAPS PLAPL PLAJG PLAKT PLAKD PLAUJ PLAUK PPKOT PLAKR PLAKS PLAKL PLAKP PLAKM PKBOT PLFBD PLFOW POTKM SSPG SSKB SSTN SSIK SSHT ECOS ECOG PDBK DEPR TPAK UNEM LABS PFOR DEGHS DEGTN RHSTN
a90 ‐384.226118 a91 ‐0.414991 a92 ‐85.935284 a93 ‐1.557892 a94 ‐0.097448 a95 1.725793 a96 ‐0.612482 a97 0.196909 /*Blok Kredit Perbankan*/ b10 8285.648422 b20 8132.294298 b30 ‐1816.105120 ; b11 ‐0.002527 b21 0.307265 b31 0.013413 instruments PCEX PVPS PVPL PVJG PVKD PVUJ PVUK PVKL PVKM PVKP PVKR b12 ‐0.824969 b22 ‐1.585831 b32 1.820792 PVKS PVKT PVOW PVBD PVOW POPK POPM POPS ROIBR ROIJG b13 14.796182 b23 ‐1.497474 b33 ‐0.006166 ROIKD ROIKT ROIUJ ROIUK ROIKL ROIKM ROIKP ROIKR ROIKS b14 0.782143 b24 0.871890 b34 ‐0.409477 RPDGK RPDGM RPDGS RPIKB RPIOW RPLOG RPSAW RPSLG RAGWA b15 ‐2.162626 b25 6.158450 b35 ‐1.365523 RJAK RKBMT RWIND PFERT UMRR RPSMN SSNPT REXP HSTNK b16 ‐0.643595 b26 ‐1.781929 b36 ‐0.069444 LHPHS LTNKS PERS POPD POPG PPUK SEXR RSKB DKAW1 DKAW2 b17 ‐0.264851 b27 1.792746 b37 ‐0.291766 DESE KRIS YEAR b18 1.301128 b28 23.946025 b38 0.494600 ; b19 ‐1.112045 b29 ‐0.259869 b39 5.281370 Parameters y10 ‐6.601895 y20 ‐2.656045 y30 5.216199 y11 1.326738 y21 ‐10.234430 y31 ‐3.363740 /*Blok Pengeluaran Pemerintah*/ y12 ‐4.122505 y22 ‐4.003859 y32 0.876292 a00 ‐60.425530 a20 ‐131.057338 a40 821.986502 a01 0.095529 a21 ‐0.244685 a41 ‐1.575864 /*Blok Penggunaan Lahan*/ a02 4.864368 a22 11.037219 a42 ‐41.510619 a03 ‐0.205666 a23 ‐0.277173 a43 0.198627 c10 ‐266.465840 c30 1899.347562 c50 99.396849 a04 ‐0.241888 a24 0.102072 a44 ‐0.595746 c11 0.036514 c31 ‐0.994029 c51 ‐0.039415 a05 ‐0.797103 a25 1.047745 a45 ‐3.189325 c12 0.103661 c32 ‐0.084703 c52 ‐0.082144 a06 0.046034 a26 ‐0.269145 a46 6.355222 c13 ‐0.021431 c33 ‐0.400705 c53 0.114236 a07 0.030910 a27 0.065859 a47 ‐0.407335 c14 0.010614 c34 1.408914 c54 0.443371 c15 ‐0.058198 c35 1.743827 c55 0.025942 c16 ‐0.770785 c36 ‐11.114637 c56 ‐0.726910 a10 ‐364.408307 a30 ‐181.765977 a50 1697.500584 a11 ‐0.564915 a31 ‐0.063966 a51 ‐3.736370 c17 0.003589 c37 0.178709 c57 0.010367 a12 21.683628 a32 5.734057 a52 81.020552 c18 0.103436 c38 2.095297 c58 0.012823 a13 ‐0.165321 a33 0.153853 a53 2.295093 c19 ‐0.028226 c39 ‐0.449405 c59 0.000183 a14 ‐0.004210 a34 0.319958 a54 0.292886 x10 ‐0.008320 x30 ‐0.165521 x50 0.004537 a15 ‐0.030544 a35 ‐1.490904 a55 4.172866 x11 3.165343 x31 ‐0.554723 x51 ‐1.186946 a16 ‐0.597341 a36 0.311416 a56 ‐4.240375 x12 ‐1.824486 x32 ‐9.708050 x52 1.723855 a17 0.183503 a37 0.091597 a57 ‐0.840480 x13 0.013489 x33 ‐0.318320 x53 ‐0.153208 x14 0.006325 x34 ‐3.701904 x54 ‐0.045607 x15 0.136407 x35 ‐0.923090 x55 ‐0.053760 a60 434.464938 a80 ‐25.728802 a70 115.868315 a61 ‐0.962228 a81 ‐0.104819 a71 ‐0.676223 c20 5233.582033 c40 ‐15.139242 c60 ‐948.287352 a62 9.771065 a82 0.098350 a72 ‐4.953424 c21 ‐0.451362 c41 0.002855 c61 0.258525 a63 0.473284 a83 ‐0.058891 a73 ‐1.190178 c22 ‐0.039445 c42 ‐0.008543 c62 ‐0.133496 a64 0.436734 a84 0.228242 a74 ‐0.877417 c23 1.217728 c43 ‐0.000568 c63 0.432233 a65 ‐0.402483 a85 0.145621 a75 0.638858 c24 0.003240 c44 ‐0.008107 c64 4.945145 a66 0.737095 a86 ‐0.034566 a76 0.122143 c25 1.047340 c45 ‐0.011350 c65 ‐0.253707 a67 ‐0.214611 a87 0.013100 a77 ‐0.056120 c26 0.506787 c46 0.062317 c66 ‐1.968692
297
c27 ‐0.049839 c47 ‐0.000678 c67 0.038715 d40 29.337433 d50 64.680089 d60 22.268643 d41 ‐0.006446 d51 0.010601 d61 ‐0.037547 c28 0.122066 c48 0.016339 c68 1.154352 d42 0.033893 d52 ‐0.399935 d62 0.016359 c29 ‐0.296623 c49 0.005224 c69 0.147364 d43 ‐0.011932 d53 ‐0.019379 d63 ‐0.045676 x20 ‐0.090230 x40 0.000438 x60 0.097902 d44 ‐0.000701 d54 ‐0.001474 d64 ‐0.002530 x21 ‐26.954909 x41 ‐0.135694 x61 2.017822 d45 ‐0.001906 d55 0.031432 d65 0.017660 x22 19.582326 x42 ‐0.127108 x62 22.416748 d46 0.000182 d56 0.010112 d66 0.000495 x23 ‐1.520122 x43 0.022808 x63 ‐0.518535 d47 ‐0.048528 d57 ‐0.160130 d67 ‐0.042466 x24 ‐0.821346 x44 ‐0.006544 x64 2.222221 d48 0.046407 d58 0.314231 d68 0.007346 x25 ‐2.649074 x45 0.007651 x65 0.450535 d49 ‐0.001436 d59 0.004111 d69 0.004451 w40 ‐0.314816 w50 0.026766 w60 ‐0.774472 c70 ‐940.203095 c90 ‐48.257938 c80 ‐213.926133 w41 ‐0.421526 w51 ‐0.371813 w61 ‐0.693225 c71 0.039989 c91 0.025435 c81 ‐0.136097 w42 ‐0.047069 w52 ‐0.378525 w62 ‐0.064689 c72 0.423694 c92 0.031059 c82 0.015229 w43 0.065137 w53 ‐0.022714 w63 0.106246 c73 ‐0.423143 c93 0.000489 c83 ‐0.170015 w44 ‐0.014341 w54 ‐0.032129 w64 ‐0.010592 c74 0.648023 c94 0.007693 c84 0.185331 c75 0.128577 c95 3.733254 c85 0.253064 d70 325.644941 e10 304.191111 e20 ‐1139.597112 c76 ‐1.989083 c96 ‐0.063594 c86 ‐2.415694 d71 ‐1.187750 e11 0.351097 e21 ‐0.057495 c77 0.031709 c97 ‐0.029055 c87 0.043703 d72 0.035437 e12 ‐1.472881 e22 ‐0.267960 c78 ‐0.170134 c98 ‐0.007268 c88 0.638363 d73 ‐0.028525 e13 0.210027 e23 ‐0.069377 c79 0.019896 c99 ‐0.016912 c89 ‐0.110493 d74 ‐0.010268 e14 ‐0.006951 e24 0.017960 x70 ‐0.023765 x90 0.006350 x80 ‐0.020027 d75 0.055677 e15 0.090724 e25 ‐0.108159 x71 9.008172 x91 ‐1.799713 x81 4.213314 d76 ‐0.009540 e16 ‐0.029687 e26 0.040055 x72 ‐10.872705 x92 ‐1.578738 x82 ‐3.075839 d77 ‐0.074372 e17 0.031099 e27 0.089035 x73 1.886171 x93 0.117338 x83 ‐0.279972 d78 ‐0.173117 e18 ‐1.035271 e28 0.026027 x74 0.241320 x94 0.098869 x84 ‐0.649039 d79 ‐0.036995 e19 ‐0.054602 e29 0.007207 x75 0.474768 x95 0.025660 x85 0.111035 w70 ‐0.586843 v10 0.297667 v20 ‐0.230215 w71 ‐0.165533 v11 9.361888 v21 2.726791 /*Blok Pilihan Komoditas*/ w72 0.199393 v12 0.671514 v22 ‐0.228119 d10 548.823264 d20 289.138557 d30 ‐46.754053 w73 ‐0.003625 v13 0.074852 v23 ‐0.282501 d11 ‐0.096457 d21 ‐0.239125 d31 ‐0.121084 w74 ‐0.161921 v14 ‐0.151472 v24 0.570405 d12 ‐0.044503 d22 ‐0.349131 d32 0.222278 d13 0.963815 d23 ‐0.082681 d33 ‐0.059531 e30 ‐68.246099 e40 ‐142.512340 e50 ‐192.322688 d14 ‐0.005461 d24 ‐0.006105 d34 0.000416 e31 ‐0.021226 e41 0.171085 e51 ‐0.034074 d15 0.223006 d25 0.095473 d35 ‐0.045705 e32 ‐0.169068 e42 ‐2.816845 e52 ‐1.006576 d16 0.014379 d26 ‐0.011278 d36 ‐0.003402 e33 ‐0.004442 e43 ‐0.143980 e53 ‐0.043494 d17 ‐0.194659 d27 0.042152 d37 ‐0.193307 e34 ‐0.000085918 e44 0.008993 e54 0.006645 d18 0.420817 d28 ‐0.183094 d38 0.134958 e35 ‐0.009913 e45 0.050927 e55 ‐0.102244 d19 ‐0.030655 d29 ‐0.044869 d39 ‐0.030354 e36 0.001731 e46 ‐0.020772 e56 ‐0.001341 w10 1.702057 w20 ‐1.514658 w30 ‐1.630253 e37 ‐0.044752 e47 ‐0.192032 e57 0.143016 w11 0.614840 w21 ‐0.284329 w31 ‐1.407268 e38 0.010328 e48 1.306707 e58 ‐0.022436 w12 ‐0.271877 w22 ‐0.282393 w32 ‐0.583069 e39 0.016418 e49 ‐0.134177 e59 ‐0.029306 w13 0.095543 w23 ‐0.489145 w33 ‐0.129719 v30 0.377634 v40 ‐6.622381 v50 0.553167 w14 ‐0.275832 w24 ‐0.142012 w34 0.025170
298
v31 ‐0.262019 v41 ‐5.335136 v51 4.112430 f49 0.788635 f59 ‐0.041781 v32 ‐0.008589 v42 ‐1.104339 v52 0.264243 u40 3.327206 u50 0.085141 v33 ‐0.013601 v43 ‐0.066892 v53 ‐0.274785 u41 0.986445 u51 0.018301 v34 0.034466 v44 0.077545 v54 0.097532 u42 0.247851 u43 ‐0.125242 e60 91.581745 e70 ‐114.131322 e61 ‐0.000135 e71 0.000779 /*Blok Ekonomi dan Tenaga Kerja*/ e62 ‐0.001159 e72 ‐0.002067 g10 ‐701.109125 g30 3990.779392 g50 2888.888477 g11 ‐0.825436 g31 ‐0.561574 g51 0.817483 e63 0.175620 e73 ‐0.044239 g12 0.754110 g32 ‐0.071571 g52 ‐0.803925 e64 ‐1.836283 e74 0.003052 g13 0.466496 g33 2.549341 g53 ‐3.025849 e65 0.000990 e75 ‐0.045714 g14 75.572231 g34 ‐1.799915 g54 ‐1.086794 e66 0.025910 e76 0.003869 g15 1.651776 g35 0.163198 g55 ‐2.191624 e67 ‐0.001758 e77 ‐0.073582 g16 ‐0.018020 g36 7.259902 g56 0.223552 e68 0.020231 e78 0.182197 g17 3.538682 g37 ‐1.010055 g57 ‐0.861147 e69 ‐0.007570 e79 2.002525 g18 4.012445 g38 2.227129 g58 ‐0.027335 v60 ‐1.128515 v70 1.135543 g19 ‐2.715968 g39 0.371807 g59 ‐11.712169 v61 ‐0.422761 v71 ‐0.095343 t10 ‐6.590572 t30 ‐1.946084 t50 ‐7.144095 v62 ‐0.074455 v72 0.045411 t11 0.331933 t51 ‐1.105937 v63 0.023119 v73 0.057104 g40 1031.467132 t52 1.457292 v64 ‐0.045650 g20 ‐65.984204 g41 ‐0.166496 t53 ‐1.367261 /*Blok Struktur Output*/ g21 0.006921 g42 0.916714 f10 2.399494 f20 ‐691.645060 f30 27.063229 g22 ‐0.005542 g43 ‐0.255877 g60 ‐619.416437 f11 ‐0.171676 f21 ‐0.310192 f31 0.046384 g23 0.120667 g44 0.034850 g61 0.094209 f12 ‐0.485141 f22 0.093979 f32 0.188278 g24 0.009142 g45 0.075439 g62 0.040911 f13 0.534054 f23 ‐0.447584 f33 0.003765 g25 0.008352 g46 1.146881 g63 ‐0.177457 f14 ‐1.207363 f24 ‐0.309402 f34 0.003998 g26 0.003939 g47 ‐0.001773 g64 0.000718 f15 7.912402 f25 ‐2.425053 f35 ‐0.000144 g27 0.000291 g48 ‐1.077767 g65 0.002485 f16 3.066643 f26 0.800713 f36 0.097089 g28 0.159953 g49 ‐3.842111 g66 ‐0.030230 f17 ‐4.642133 f27 0.052639 f37 ‐0.004396 g29 0.005123 t40 1.252374 g67 0.460939 f18 0.879852 f28 ‐0.504561 f38 ‐1.777084 t20 ‐0.009840 t41 0.199940 g68 0.129730 f19 0.173324 f29 0.996912 f39 ‐0.043302 t21 ‐0.047018 t42 ‐0.526066 g69 ‐0.026992 u10 ‐1.544418 u20 ‐0.969343 u30 0.046178 t22 0.033506 t60 ‐1.096068 t61 ‐2.635075 u11 ‐6.831625 u21 ‐0.302292 u31 ‐0.060128 t62 0.717439 t63 0.401576 t64 0.312600 u12 0.861487 u22 0.360698 u32 ‐0.013152 u13 ‐0.286491 u14 0.015847 /*Blok Degradasi Taman Nasional*/ f40 265.355852 f50 ‐31.088346 h10 ‐2377.947491 h20 3155.019116 h30 ‐57.907645 f41 ‐0.250835 f51 ‐0.046968 h11 ‐0.195092 h21 0.265344 h31 ‐0.058056 f42 2.879570 f52 0.019959 h12 0.261778 h22 ‐0.044083 h32 ‐2.380103 f43 0.415358 f53 0.008498 h13 ‐0.232282 h23 0.108674 h33 ‐0.277642 f44 1.332571 f54 0.000398 h14 ‐0.214745 h24 ‐0.025309 h34 0.021219 f45 ‐0.033167 f55 0.036504 h15 0.035330 h25 ‐0.075715 h35 ‐0.155844 f46 0.101211 f56 ‐0.002065 h16 ‐0.000828 h26 85.826135 h36 ‐0.002638 f47 0.004694 f57 ‐0.322663 h17 ‐8.825250 h27 23.663096 h37 7.133402 f48 ‐1.140256 f58 ‐2.796905
299
h18 ‐9.000967 h28 0.772981 h38 3.576851 PWET = c10 + c11*ECOG + c12*POPG + c13*POPD + c14*SSPG + c15*RAGWA h19 ‐0.746465 h29 ‐6.886028 h39 ‐0.810157 + c16*RPFER + c17*RSKB + c18*PAGE + c19*PTRE + x10*PAGC + s10 6.936463 s20 ‐1.556620 s30 1.169472 x11*DKAW1 + x12*DKAW2 + x13*DESE + x14*KRIS + x15*YEAR; s11 1.201852 s31 0.034826 PDRY = c20 + c21*ECOG + c22*POPG + c23*POPD + c24*SSPG + c25*RAGWA ; + c26*RPFER + c27*RSKB + c28*PAGE + c29*PTRE + x20*PAGC + x21*DKAW1 + x22*DKAW2 + x23*DESE + x24*KRIS + x25*YEAR; /*Blok Pengeluaran Pembangunan*/ PEST = c30 + c31*ECOG + c32*POPG + c33*POPD + c34*SSKB + c35*RAGWA PAGE = a00 + a01*(CEXP/DEXP) + a02*(PAD/BREV) + a03*DKAW1 + + c36*RPFER + c37*RSKB + c38*PAGE + c39*PTRE + x30*PAGC + a04*DKAW2 + a05*DESE + a06*KRIS + a07*YEAR; x31*DKAW1 + x32*DKAW2 + x33*DESE + x34*KRIS + x35*YEAR; PIDE = a10 + a11*(CEXP/DEXP) + a12*(PAD/BREV) + a13*DKAW1 + a14*DKAW2 + a15*DESE + a16*KRIS + a17*YEAR; PDYK = c40 + c41*ECOG + c42*POPG + c43*POPD + c44*SSIK + c45*RAGWA PWRE = a20 + a21*(CEXP/DEXP) + a22*(PAD/BREV) + a23*DKAW1 + + c46*RPFER + c47*RSKB + c48*PAGE + c49*PTRE + x40*PAGC + a24*DKAW2 + a25*DESE + a26*KRIS + a27*YEAR; x41*DKAW1 + x42*DKAW2 + x43*DESE + x44*KRIS + x45*YEAR; PEVE = a30 + a31*(CEXP/DEXP) + a32*(PAD/BREV) + a33*DKAW1 + PGRA = c50 + c51*ECOG + c52*POPG + c53*POPD + c54*SSTN + c55*RAGWA a34*DKAW2 + a35*DESE + a36*KRIS + a37*YEAR; + c56*RPFER + c57*RSKB + c58*PAGE + c59*PTRE + x50*PAGC + x51*DKAW1 + x52*DKAW2 + x53*DESE + x54*KRIS + x55*YEAR; PRDE = a40 + a41*(CEXP/DEXP) + a42*(PAD/BREV) + a43*DKAW1 + a44*DKAW2 + a45*DESE + a46*KRIS + a47*YEAR; PWOD = c60 + c61*ECOG + c62*POPG + c63*POPD + c64*SSHT + c65*RAGWA PTRE = a50 + a51*(CEXP/DEXP) + a52*(PAD/BREV) + a53*DKAW1 + + c66*RPFER + c67*RSKB + c68*PAGE + c69*PTRE + x60*PAGC + a54*DKAW2 + a55*DESE + a56*KRIS + a57*YEAR; x61*DKAW1 + x62*DKAW2 + x63*DESE + x64*KRIS + x65*YEAR; PHRE = a60 + a61*(CEXP/DEXP) + a62*(PAD/BREV) + a63*DKAW1 + PTEM = c70 + c71*ECOG + c72*POPG + c73*POPD + c74*ECOS + c75*RAGWA + c76*RPFER + c77*RSKB + c78*PAGE + c79*PTRE + x70*PAGC + a64*DKAW2 + a65*DESE + a66*KRIS + a67*YEAR; x71*DKAW1 + x72*DKAW2 + x73*DESE + x74*KRIS + x75*YEAR; PSWE = a70 + a71*(CEXP/DEXP) + a72*(PAD/BREV) + a73*DKAW1 + a74*DKAW2 + a75*DESE + a76*KRIS + a77*YEAR; PSWA = c80 + c81*ECOG + c82*POPG + c83*POPD + c84*ECOS + c85*RAGWA PSRE = a80 + a81*(CEXP/DEXP) + a82*(PAD/BREV) + a83*DKAW1 + + c86*RPFER + c87*RSKB + c88*PAGE + c89*PTRE + x80*PAGC + x81*DKAW1 + x82*DKAW2 + x83*DESE + x84*KRIS + x85*YEAR; a84*DKAW2 + a85*DESE + a86*KRIS + a87*YEAR; PHOU = c90 + c91*ECOG + c92*POPG + c93*POPD + c94*JRTG + c95*RPSMN POTE = a90 + a91*(CEXP/DEXP) + a92*(PAD/BREV) + a93*DKAW1 + + c96*RPLOG + c97*UMRR + c98*RSKB + c99*PTRE + x90*PRDE + a94*DKAW2 + a95*DESE + a96*KRIS + a97*YEAR; x91*DKAW1 + x92*DKAW2 + x93*DESE + x94*KRIS + x95*YEAR; PDEX = PAGE + PIDE + PWRE + PEVE + PRDE + PTRE + PHRE + PSWE + PSRE + POTE; PCUL = PWET + PDRY + PEST + PWOD + PDYK + PGRA; PUSE = PCUL + PTEM + PSWA + PHOU; PFOR = 100‐ PUSE; /*Blok Kredit Perbankan*/ PROC = b10 + b11*RSKB + b12*(ECOG/POPG) + b13*PDBK + b14*ECOS + /*Blok Pilihan Komoditas*/ b15*PIDE + b16*PTRE + b17*PRDE + b18*DKAW1 + b19*DKAW2 + PLAPS = d10 + d11*ROIBR + d12*PVPS + d13*PWET + d14*RSKB + y10*DESE + y11*KRIS + y12*YEAR; d15*RAGWA + d16*PAGC + d17*PAGE + d18*PWRE + d19*PTRE + PUKC = b20 + b21*RSKB + b22*PROC + b23*(ECOG/POPG) + b24*ECOS + b25*PIDE + b26*PTRE + b27*PRDE + b28*DKAW1 + b29*DKAW2 + w10*DKAW1 + w11*DKAW2 + w12*DESE + w13*KRIS + w14*YEAR; PLAPL = d20 + d21*ROIBR + d22*PVPL + d23*PDRY + d24*RSKB + y20*DESE + y21*KRIS + y22*YEAR; d25*RAGWA + d26*PAGC + d27*PAGE + d28*PWRE + d29*PTRE + PAGC = b30 + b31*RSKB + b32*PROC + b33*PUKC + b34*ECOS + b35*PAGE + w20*DKAW1 + w21*DKAW2 + w22*DESE + w23*KRIS + w24*YEAR; b36*PTRE + b37*PRDE + b38*DKAW1 + b39*DKAW2 + y30*DESE + PLAJG = d30 + d31*ROIJG + d32*PVJG + d33*PDRY + d34*RSKB + y31*KRIS + y32*YEAR; d35*RAGWA + d36*PAGC + d37*PAGE + d38*PWRE + d39*PTRE + w30*DKAW1 + w31*DKAW2 + w32*DESE + w33*KRIS + w34*YEAR; /*Blok Penggunaan Lahan*/
300
PLAKT = d40 + d41*ROIKT + d42*PVKT + d43*PDRY + d44*RSKB + SSTN = f30 + f31*SSNPT + f32*PGRA + f33*POPS + f34*POPK + f35*POPM d45*RAGWA + d46*PAGC + d47*PAGE + d48*PWRE + d49*PTRE + + f36*PAGE + f37*PAGC + f38*DKAW1 + f39*DKAW2 + u30*DESE + w40*DKAW1 + w41*DKAW2 + w42*DESE + w43*KRIS + w44*YEAR; u31*KRIS + u32*YEAR; PLAKD = d50 + d51*ROIKD + d52*PVKD + d53*PDRY + d54*RSKB + SSIK = f40 + f41*SSNPT + f42*PDYK + f43*PLFOW + f44*PLFBD + f45*DEGTN + f46*PAGE + f47*PAGC + f48*PWRE + f49*DKAW1 + d55*RAGWA + d56*PAGC + d57*PAGE + d58*PWRE + d59*PTRE + w50*DKAW1 + w51*DKAW2 + w52*DESE + w53*KRIS + w54*YEAR; u40*DKAW2 + u41*DESE + u42*KRIS + u43*YEAR; PLAUJ = d60 + d61*ROIUJ + d62*PVUJ + d63*PDRY + d64*RSKB + SSHT = f50 + f51*SSNPT + f52*PWOD + f53*PFOR + f54*LHPHS + f55*PAGE d65*RAGWA + d66*PAGC + d67*PAGE + d68*PWRE + d69*PTRE + + f56*PAGC + f57*DKAW1 + f58*DKAW2 + f59*DESE + u50*KRIS + w60*DKAW1 + w61*DKAW2 + w62*DESE + w63*KRIS + w64*YEAR; u51*YEAR; PLAUK = d70 + d71*ROIUK + d72*PVUK + d73*PDRY + d74*RSKB + ECOS = SSPG + SSKB + SSTN + SSIK + SSHT; d75*RAGWA + d76*PAGC + d77*PAGE + d78*PWRE + d79*PTRE + w70*DKAW1 + w71*DKAW2 + w72*DESE + w73*KRIS + w74*YEAR; PLAKR = e10 + e11*ROIKR + e12*PVKR + e13*PEST + e14*RSKB + /*Blok Ekonomi dan Tenaga Kerja*/ e15*RAGWA + e16*PAGC + e17*PAGE + e18*PWRE + e19*PTRE + ECOG = g10 + g11*ECOS + g12*TPAK + g13*LABS + g14*PPAD + g15*PSRE v10*DKAW1 + v11*DKAW2 + v12*DESE + v13*KRIS + v14*YEAR; + g16*PUKC + g17*DKAW1 + g18*DKAW2 + g19*DESE + t10*KRIS + PLAKS = e20 + e21*ROIKS + e22*PVKS + e23*PEST + e24*RSKB + t11*YEAR; e25*RAGWA + e26*PAGC + e27*PAGE + e28*PWRE + e29*PTRE + PDBK = g20 + g21*(ECOG/POPG) + g22*DEPR + g23*RWIND + g24*PHRE + v20*DKAW1 + v21*DKAW2 + v22*DESE + v23*KRIS + v24*YEAR; g25*PIDE + g26*PROC + g27*PUKC + g28*DKAW1 + g29*DKAW2 + t20*DESE + t21*KRIS + t22*YEAR; PLAKL = e30 + e31*ROIKL + e32*PVKL + e33*PEST + e34*RSKB + DEPR = g30 + g31*PPUK + g32*POPG + g33*RJAK + g34*PSWE + g35*PHRE e35*RAGWA + e36*PAGC + e37*PAGE + e38*PWRE + e39*PTRE + v30*DKAW1 + v31*DKAW2 + v32*DESE + v33*KRIS + v34*YEAR; + g36*DKAW1 + g37*DKAW2 + g38*DESE + g39*KRIS + t30*YEAR; PLAKP = e40 + e41*ROIKP + e42*PVKP + e43*PEST + e44*RSKB + TPAK = g40 + g41*DEPR + g42*SEXR + g43*RJAK + g44*PSWE + g45*PHRE e45*RAGWA + e46*PAGC + e47*PAGE + e48*PWRE + e49*PTRE + + g46*PIDE + g47*PUKC + g48*DKAW1 + g49*DKAW2 + t40*DESE + t41*KRIS + t42*YEAR; v40*DKAW1 + v41*DKAW2 + v42*DESE + v43*KRIS + v44*YEAR; LABS = g50 + g51*ECOS + g52*TPAK + g53*RWIND + g54*PAGE + PLAKM = e50 + e51*ROIKM + e52*PVKM + e53*PEST + e54*RSKB + e55*RAGWA + e56*PAGC + e57*PAGE + e58*PWRE + e59*PTRE + g55*PIDE + g56*PAGC + g57*PROC + g58*PUKC + g59*DKAW1 + v50*DKAW1 + v51*DKAW2 + v52*DESE + v53*KRIS + v54*YEAR; t50*DKAW2 + t51*DESE + t52*KRIS + t53*YEAR; PLFBD = e60 + e61*RPIKB + e62*PVBD + e63*PWET + e64*PDYK + UNEM = g60 + g61*UMRR + g62*(ECOG/POPG) + g63*TPAK + g64*LABS + g65*PPUK + g66*PDEX + g67*PIDE + g68*PROC + g69*PUKC + e65*RSKB + e66*RAGWA + e67*PAGC + e68*PAGE + e69*PWRE + t60*DKAW1 + t61*DKAW2 + t62*DESE + t63*KRIS + t64*YEAR; v60*DKAW1 + v61*DKAW2 + v62*DESE + v63*KRIS + v64*YEAR; PLFOW = e70 + e71*RPIKO + e72*PVOW + e73*PSWA + e74*RSKB + e75*RAGWA + e76*PAGC + e77*PAGE + e78*PWRE + e79*DKAW1 + /*Blok Degradasi Taman Nasional*/ v70*DKAW2 + v71*DESE + v72*KRIS + v73*YEAR; DEGHS = h10 + h11*PFOR + h12*(ECOG/POPG) + h13*UNEM + h14*RPLOG + PPKOT = PDRY ‐ PLAPL ‐ PLAJG ‐ PLAKT ‐ PLAKD ‐ PLAUJ ‐ PLAUK; h15*RKBMT + h16*LHPHS + h17*DKAW1 + h18*DKAW2 + h19*DESE + PKBOT = PEST ‐ PLAKR ‐ PLAKS ‐ PLAKL ‐ PLAKP ‐ PLAKM; s10*KRIS + s11*YEAR; RHSTN = h20 + h21*DEGHS + h22*(ECOG/POPG) + h23*RPLOG + h24*LHPHS /*Blok Struktur Output*/ + h25*PEVE + h26*DKAW1 + h27*DKAW2 + h28*DESE + h29*KRIS + SSPG = f10 + f11*SSNPT + f12*PLAPS + f13*PLAPL + f14*PLAJG + s20*YEAR; f15*PLAKT + f16*PLAKD + f17*PLAUJ + f18*PLAUK + f19*PPKOT + DEGTN = h30 + h31*RHSTN + h32*PDBK + h33*UNEM + h34*RPLOG + u10*DKAW1 + u11*DKAW2 + u12*DESE + u13*KRIS + u14*YEAR; h35*RKBMT + h36*LHPHS + h37*DKAW1 + h38*DKAW2 + SSKB = f20 + f21*SSNPT + f22*PLAKR + f23*PLAKS + f24*PLAKP + h39*DESE + s30*KRIS + s31*YEAR; f25*PLAKL + f26*PLAKM + f27*PKBOT + f28*DKAW1 + f29*DKAW2 + RANGE NO = 1 TO 30; u20*DESE + u21*KRIS + u22*YEAR; RUN;
301
proc print data=SIMPOL;
RUN;
302
Lampiran 10. Hasil Validasi Model Ekonometrika No
Variabel
A
Lambang B
C
Mean
Standar Deviasi
INDIKATOR
Actual
Prediksi
Actual
Prediksi
RMSE
RMSPE
D
E
F
G
H
I
Dekomposisi U-Theil
R-Square J
U-Theil
UM
UR
UD
US
K
L
M
N
O
UC P
1
Alokasi PP Sektor Pertanian
PAGE
1.356
1.356
0.437
0.269
0.339
29.876
0.380
0.121
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.238
0.762
2
Alokasi PP Industri dan Dunia Usaha
PIDE
1.480
1.480
0.533
0.318
0.421
34.253
0.356
0.137
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.252
0.748
3
Alokasi PP Sumberdaya Air/Irigasi
PWRE
0.533
0.533
0.545
0.490
0.234
1115.000
0.809
0.159
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.053
0.947
4
Alokasi PP Transportasi
PTRE
12.356
12.357
5.699
5.381
1.846
23.359
0.892
0.068
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.029
0.971
5
Alokasi PP Pengembengan Wilayah
PRDE
6.659
6.659
3.975
3.177
2.348
58.665
0.639
0.156
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.112
0.888
6
Alokasi PP SDM and Tenaga Kerja
PHRE
4.687
4.687
1.726
1.313
1.101
28.332
0.579
0.112
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.136
0.864
7
Alokasi PP Ristek
PSRE
0.321
0.321
0.194
0.135
0.136
86.039
0.488
0.189
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.177
0.823
8
Alokasi PP Kesejahteraan Sosial
PSWE
1.772
1.772
0.794
0.647
0.452
27.930
0.664
0.119
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.102
0.898
9
Alokasi PP Lingkunga
PEVE
1.296
1.295
0.757
0.540
0.522
40.538
0.508
0.180
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.168
0.832
10
Alokasi PP Lainnya
POTE
4.948
4.948
1.627
1.190
1.091
20.608
0.535
0.106
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.155
0.845
11
Alokasi Pengeluaran Pembangunan
PDEX
35.408
35.408
7.951
7.861
1.170
3.907
0.978
0.016
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.006
0.994
12
Alokasi Kredit Investasi dan Modal
PROC
80.986
80.943
11.293
10.964
3.257
4.150
0.914
0.020
0.000
0.003
0.997
0.010
0.990
13
Alokasi Kredit UKM
PUKC
34.888
34.847
15.749
12.239
9.948
31.144
0.587
0.133
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.120
0.880
14
Alokasi Kredit Pertanian
PAGC
61.932
61.855
16.232
15.283
6.535
13.314
0.832
0.051
0.000
0.005
0.995
0.020
0.979
15
Porsi Lahan Basah
PWET
4.100
4.100
1.758
1.764
0.140
4.704
0.994
0.016
0.000
0.007
0.993
0.002
0.998
16
Porsi Lahan Kering
PDRY
13.724
13.726
2.679
2.487
1.454
11.804
0.695
0.052
0.000
0.026
0.974
0.017
0.983
17
Porsi Lahan Kebun
PEST
18.870
18.872
9.230
9.292
2.971
24.749
0.893
0.071
0.000
0.034
0.966
0.000
1.000
18
Porsi Lahan Kolam dan Tambak
PDYK
0.106
0.106
0.076
0.074
0.021
24.971
0.919
0.082
0.000
0.004
0.996
0.007
0.993
19
Porsi Lahan Rumputan
PGRA
1.018
1.018
0.491
0.465
0.177
28.237
0.866
0.079
0.000
0.002
0.998
0.022
0.978
20
Porsi Lahan Menganggur Sementara
PTEM
5.242
5.245
2.589
2.533
0.574
16.099
0.949
0.049
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.009
0.991
21
Porsi Lahan Kayu-kayuan
PWOD
10.212
10.204
3.531
3.405
1.172
13.879
0.886
0.054
0.000
0.004
0.995
0.011
0.989
303
Lampiran 10. Lanjutan A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
22
Porsi Lahan Rawa-rawa
PSWA
1.210
1.210
0.862
0.916
0.549
89.720
0.580
0.184
0.000
0.159
0.841
0.009
0.991
23
Porsi Lahan Pemukiman
PHOU
3.482
3.481
1.049
1.035
0.151
4.747
0.979
0.021
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.008
0.992
24
Porsi Lahan Pertanian
PCUL
48.029
48.025
6.197
6.242
3.697
7.981
0.632
0.038
0.000
0.098
0.902
0.000
1.000
25
Porsi Lahan Digunakan
PUSE
57.963
57.961
8.201
8.497
4.238
7.475
0.724
0.036
0.000
0.103
0.897
0.005
0.995
26
Porsi Luas Areal Padi Sawah
PLAPS
3.159
3.158
2.077
2.055
0.321
11.135
0.975
0.043
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.005
0.995
27
Porsi Luas Areal Padi Ladang
PLAPL
0.936
0.938
0.756
0.711
0.303
176.026
0.834
0.128
0.000
0.005
0.995
0.021
0.979
28
Porsi Luas Areal Jagung
PLAJG
0.845
0.845
0.718
0.706
0.171
26.207
0.941
0.078
0.000
0.003
0.997
0.005
0.995
29
Porsi Luas Areal Kacang Tanah
PLAKT
0.245
0.245
0.175
0.170
0.045
24.164
0.931
0.076
0.000
0.001
0.999
0.010
0.989
30
Porsi Luas Areal Kedele
PLAKD
0.317
0.317
0.278
0.259
0.092
164.099
0.887
0.112
0.000
0.001
0.999
0.040
0.960
31
Porsi Luas Areal Ubi Jalar
PLAUJ
0.278
0.278
0.318
0.310
0.084
81.031
0.927
0.101
0.000
0.002
0.998
0.008
0.992
32
Porsi Luas Areal Ubi Kayu
PLAUK
0.363
0.365
0.288
0.258
0.151
90.732
0.718
0.167
0.000
0.008
0.992
0.039
0.961
33
Porsi Luas Pangan Lahan Kering Lain
PPKOT
10.740
10.740
3.195
2.987
1.749
20.912
0.690
0.078
0.000
0.031
0.969
0.014
0.986
34
Porsi Luas Areal Karet
PLAKR
6.937
6.940
6.334
6.323
0.862
31.754
0.981
0.046
0.000
0.003
0.997
0.000
1.000
35
Porsi Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit
PLAKS
1.298
1.295
1.042
0.971
0.394
750.877
0.852
0.121
0.000
0.001
0.999
0.031
0.969
36
Porsi Luas Areal Kelapa
PLAKL
0.687
0.688
0.305
0.299
0.063
16.726
0.956
0.042
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.009
0.991
37
Porsi Luas Areal Kopi
PLAKP
3.253
3.253
2.901
2.868
0.590
29.281
0.957
0.068
0.000
0.002
0.998
0.003
0.997
38
Porsi Luas Areal Kulit Manis
PLAKM
1.954
1.954
1.524
1.515
0.163
13.297
0.988
0.033
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.003
0.997
39
Porsi Luas Areal Perkebunan Lainnya
PKBOT
4.740
4.741
4.070
3.965
2.983
488.761
0.444
0.242
0.000
0.121
0.879
0.001
0.999
40
Porsi Luas Areal Budidaya Ikan
PLFBD
0.211
0.211
0.204
0.198
0.065
59.653
0.895
0.112
0.000
0.007
0.993
0.006
0.994
41
Porsi Luas Areal Perairan Terbuka
PLFOW
1.175
1.174
0.834
0.832
0.072
28.546
0.992
0.025
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.001
0.999
42
Porsi Luas Areal Komoditi Lainnya
POTKM
11.336
11.328
3.909
3.799
1.169
12.679
0.908
0.049
0.000
0.004
0.996
0.009
0.991
43
Share Sub-sektor Pangan
SSPG
23.052
23.052
2.820
2.755
0.702
2.961
0.936
0.015
0.000
0.001
0.999
0.008
0.992
44
Share Sub-sektor Perkebunan
SSKB
9.957
9.957
4.063
4.038
0.500
5.642
0.984
0.023
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.003
0.997
304
Lampiran 10. Lanjutan A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
45
Share Sub-sektor Peternakan
SSTN
3.349
3.349
0.390
0.376
0.113
3.467
0.913
0.017
0.000
0.001
0.999
0.014
0.986
46
Share Sub-sektor Perikanan
SSIK
2.922
2.922
1.982
1.917
0.528
36.394
0.927
0.076
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.015
0.985
47
Share Sub-sektor Kehutanan
SSHT
2.284
2.284
1.191
1.186
0.117
6.271
0.990
0.023
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.001
0.999
48
Pangsa Sektor Pertanian
ECOS
41.564
41.564
4.866
4.909
0.623
1.464
0.983
0.007
0.000
0.018
0.982
0.005
0.995
49
Pertumbuhan Output
ECOG
3.505
3.517
3.228
2.910
2.189
112.978
0.524
0.236
0.000
0.054
0.946
0.020
0.979
50
Output Perkapita
PDBK
1.197
1.198
0.068
0.062
0.029
2.430
0.815
0.012
0.001
0.001
0.998
0.040
0.959
51
Angka Beban Ketergantungan
DEPR
67.395
67.394
6.955
6.603
2.135
3.230
0.903
0.016
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.026
0.974
52
Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja
TPAK
59.523
59.522
4.087
3.981
1.104
1.910
0.925
0.009
0.000
0.002
0.998
0.009
0.991
53
Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka
UNEM
4.125
4.124
1.158
1.005
0.603
17.408
0.719
0.071
0.000
0.001
0.999
0.062
0.938
54
Pangsa TK Sektor Pertanian
LABS
71.062
71.085
4.874
4.227
2.541
3.734
0.719
0.018
0.000
0.001
0.999
0.063
0.937
55
Porsi Hutan Kawasan
PFOR
42.037
42.039
8.201
8.497
4.238
10.606
0.724
0.050
0.000
0.103
0.897
0.005
0.995
56
Degradasi Hutan Buffer Zone
DEGHS
11.259
11.278
6.995
6.939
0.758
453.178
0.988
0.029
0.001
0.000
0.999
0.005
0.994
57
Degradasi Taman Nasional
DEGTN
6.485
6.481
1.472
1.403
0.442
6.226
0.907
0.033
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.024
0.976
58
Rasio Tutupan Hutan Sekitar - TNKS
RHSTN
76.968
76.970
37.163
37.153
1.145
1.710
0.999
0.007
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.000
1.000
Keterangan: PP = Pengeluaran Pembangunan
305
Lampiran 11. Hasil Simulasi Dampak Krisis dan Desentralisasi Fiskal Terhadap Perkembangan Kawasan dan Taman Nasional No
Variabel
A
B
Sebelum Krisis
Krisis
Desentralisasi
Bengkulu
Jambi
Sumbar
Bengkulu
Jambi
Sumbar
Bengkulu
Jambi
Sumbar
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
1
PAGE
1.591
1.264
1.349
1.709
1.502
1.491
1.222
0.917
0.948
2
PIDE
1.881
1.560
1.438
1.514
1.351
1.429
1.391
1.625
1.179
3
PWRE
0.493
0.431
0.079
0.255
0.290
0.013
1.230
1.431
0.918
4
PTRE
19.252
18.464
20.329
10.122
9.308
12.940
5.928
7.964
8.471
5
PRDE
5.305
5.487
5.736
10.354
9.222
10.761
2.765
3.109
3.742
6
PHRE
5.431
5.770
5.700
5.053
5.195
5.659
2.402
3.317
3.038
7
PSRE
0.266
0.499
0.194
0.249
0.445
0.205
0.269
0.552
0.236
8
PSWE
2.753
2.000
1.536
2.570
1.474
1.471
1.853
1.344
0.882
9
PEVE
1.141
1.372
1.231
1.686
1.991
1.849
0.462
0.800
0.581
10
POTE
4.153
5.483
3.396
5.194
4.886
3.679
6.145
6.498
5.461
11
PDEX
42.265
42.328
40.988
38.706
35.663
39.497
23.666
27.555
25.456
12
PROC
93.504
91.019
83.542
87.375
88.503
79.733
69.867
66.970
63.713
13
PUKC
20.135
20.114
38.995
29.386
30.295
50.815
33.613
34.700
53.581
14
PAGC
78.608
79.894
65.120
66.445
74.066
56.816
46.321
46.266
39.234
15
PWET
3.584
2.046
6.303
3.735
2.202
6.381
3.833
2.387
6.429
16
PDRY
12.100
12.010
11.729
15.628
13.598
12.710
18.946
13.254
13.301
17
PEST
19.716
22.971
6.442
19.818
30.452
8.536
17.612
33.136
10.431
18
PDYK
0.227
0.078
0.095
0.192
0.029
0.069
0.189
0.026
0.055
19
PGRA
0.737
0.672
1.708
0.787
0.874
1.704
0.841
0.428
1.308
20
PTEM
8.665
4.456
2.132
7.159
4.733
1.525
8.083
7.239
3.985
21
PWOD
6.701
9.250
14.697
7.662
10.248
15.608
7.014
6.904
12.784
306
Lampiran 11. Lanjutan A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
22
PSWA
1.467
0.953
0.088
1.464
2.410
0.494
0.848
2.347
0.574
23
PHOU
4.549
2.887
2.560
4.843
2.814
2.718
5.260
2.709
3.014
24
PCUL
43.065
47.028
40.973
47.822
57.402
45.008
48.435
56.134
44.308
25
PUSE
57.746
55.323
45.753
61.288
67.359
49.744
62.625
68.429
51.880
26
PLAPS
2.254
1.476
6.165
1.926
1.240
5.730
2.054
1.652
6.112
27
PLAPL
2.027
1.639
0.447
1.497
1.194
0.010
0.845
0.969
0.006
28
PLAJG
1.889
0.419
0.360
1.964
0.565
0.376
1.368
0.247
0.291
29
PLAKT
0.518
0.113
0.180
0.482
0.097
0.189
0.396
0.058
0.159
30
PLAKD
0.813
0.422
0.547
0.473
0.159
0.258
0.175
0.029
0.053
31
PLAUJ
0.800
0.076
0.070
0.729
0.080
0.077
0.509
0.106
0.036
32
PLAUK
0.688
0.574
0.171
0.662
0.303
0.060
0.502
0.177
0.167
33
PPKOT
5.367
8.769
9.954
9.822
11.199
11.850
15.151
11.726
12.601
34
PLAKR
3.175
13.855
0.982
3.816
15.654
1.473
3.524
17.082
2.861
35
PLAKS
0.243
2.370
0.077
1.039
2.530
0.858
1.813
2.054
0.487
36
PLAKL
0.544
0.479
1.129
0.606
0.357
1.067
0.594
0.380
1.048
37
PLAKP
6.138
1.292
0.815
6.783
0.902
1.213
8.348
1.450
2.627
38
PLAKM
0.417
3.991
1.113
0.528
3.974
1.309
0.664
4.016
1.595
39
PKBOT
9.201
0.983
2.326
7.047
7.036
2.616
2.669
8.155
1.813
40
PLFBD
0.494
0.017
0.091
0.488
0.091
0.100
0.449
0.106
0.050
41
PLFOW
0.074
1.311
2.026
0.129
1.320
2.117
0.148
1.270
2.160
42
POTKM
7.665
10.000
16.500
8.641
11.150
17.381
8.044
7.358
14.147
43
SSPG
26.760
21.344
22.823
25.933
20.037
21.807
27.225
19.832
22.170
44
SSKB
8.805
13.975
5.458
8.838
15.734
6.191
7.930
15.955
6.433
45
SSTN
3.652
3.636
2.912
3.574
3.600
2.828
3.644
3.539
2.770
307
Lampiran 11. Lanjutan A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
46
SSIK
2.996
5.749
1.445
2.679
5.618
1.131
1.724
4.430
47
SSHT
3.308
0.639
2.753
3.401
0.718
2.890
3.360
0.625
0.305 2.810
48
ECOS
45.521
45.343
35.390
44.424
45.707
34.847
43.882
44.382
34.488
49
ECOG
5.832
7.753
8.149
0.912
0.480
1.299
3.472
3.471
2.901
50
PDBK
1.150
1.118
1.213
1.171
1.174
1.260
1.173
1.212
1.307
51
DEPR
71.085
68.313
77.875
65.231
60.431
73.356
63.751
56.363
71.202
52
TPAK
64.336
60.334
55.408
64.012
59.063
54.463
64.659
59.001
54.768
53
UNEM
4.652
2.348
3.374
5.109
3.515
4.136
5.415
3.547
4.888
54
LABS
71.743
72.638
66.748
71.663
71.661
64.449
76.796
77.211
68.681
55
PFOR
42.254
44.677
54.247
38.713
32.641
50.256
37.375
31.571
48.120
56
DEGHS
10.167
1.288
0.292
20.122
11.475
9.468
22.408
12.400
11.474
57
DEGTN
3.661
6.530
6.091
5.433
7.765
7.670
5.209
7.881
7.619
58
RHSTN
48.729
65.904
134.401
41.976
57.737
125.158
40.408
56.994
123.435
308
Lampiran 12. Hasil Simulasi Dampak Masing-masing Skenario Kebijakan Alokasi Pengeluaran Pemerintah pada Kawasan Bengkulu Nilai Simulasi No
Notasi
Prioritas 5%
Nilai Dasar
C
Relokasi Pengeluaran Rutin
P1
P2
P3
5%
10%
15%
D
E
F
G
H
I
Relokasi 15% Pengeluaran rutin dengan prioritas Prioritas 5% P1 J
P2 K
Prioritas 10% P3 L
P1 M
P2 N
P3 0
Relokasi 20% dengan P3 15%
A
B
1
PAGE
1.528
1.556
1.556
1.556
1.498
1.474
1.455
1.467
1.467
1.467
1.481
1.481
1.481
P 1.472
2
PIDE
1.587
1.423
1.423
1.423
1.763
1.902
2.016
1.949
1.949
1.949
1.866
1.866
1.866
1.918
3
PWRE
0.619
0.548
0.548
0.548
0.695
0.755
0.805
0.776
0.776
0.776
0.740
0.740
0.740
0.762
4
PTRE
11.603
14.839
10.514
10.514
12.763
13.685
14.439
14.839
13.995
13.995
18.076
13.447
13.447
13.789
5
PRDE
6.563
6.104
9.799
6.104
7.052
7.441
7.759
7.572
9.799
7.572
7.341
13.036
7.341
7.485
6
PHRE
4.371
4.091
4.091
7.608
4.670
4.907
5.101
4.987
4.987
7.608
4.846
4.846
10.845
14.082
7
PSRE
0.260
0.230
0.230
0.230
0.293
0.319
0.340
0.327
0.327
0.327
0.312
0.312
0.312
0.321
8
PSWE
2.410
2.213
2.213
2.213
2.620
2.786
2.923
2.843
2.843
2.843
2.743
2.743
2.743
2.805
9
PEVE
1.155
1.136
1.136
1.136
1.175
1.191
1.204
1.196
1.196
1.196
1.187
1.187
1.187
1.192
10
POTE
5.167
5.046
5.046
5.046
5.296
5.398
5.482
5.433
5.433
5.433
5.372
5.372
5.372
5.410
11
PDEX
35.262
37.183
36.554
36.376
37.824
39.858
41.523
41.386
42.770
43.163
43.962
45.029
45.332
49.236
12
PROC
83.961
81.455
84.713
85.815
82.414
81.183
80.175
79.977
80.351
81.071
77.240
80.431
82.191
82.096
13
PUKC
27.879
23.214
34.263
25.399
29.774
31.278
32.508
31.212
36.705
31.261
27.791
43.473
29.695
29.626
14
PAGC
64.057
59.564
64.303
67.551
61.137
58.816
56.914
56.587
56.538
58.601
51.630
55.590
60.709
60.528
15
PWET
3.719
3.696
3.727
3.713
3.720
3.720
3.721
3.717
3.726
3.717
3.697
3.734
3.711
3.706
16
PDRY
15.565
14.618
16.170
15.716
15.320
15.125
14.966
14.831
15.285
15.001
13.917
15.752
15.041
14.898
17
PEST
19.126
17.392
20.659
19.469
18.542
18.078
17.699
17.481
18.516
17.770
15.760
19.714
17.848
17.492
18
PDYK
0.202
0.219
0.194
0.196
0.208
0.213
0.216
0.219
0.213
0.214
0.236
0.208
0.212
0.214
19
PGRA
0.788
0.740
0.819
0.813
0.763
0.743
0.727
0.722
0.741
0.737
0.671
0.760
0.750
0.744
20
PTEM
7.888
7.817
8.107
7.875
7.853
7.825
7.803
7.797
7.928
7.782
7.723
8.120
7.754
7.703
21
PWOD
7.180
7.693
6.768
7.260
7.193
7.203
7.211
7.306
6.966
7.275
7.759
6.587
7.359
7.445
22
PSWA
1.280
0.833
1.583
1.422
1.101
0.959
0.842
0.791
0.993
0.891
0.338
1.204
0.950
0.874
309
Lampiran 12. Lanjutan D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
0
23
A
PHOU
B
C 4.880
4.844
4.902
4.887
4.872
4.866
4.862
4.856
4.873
4.865
4.823
4.891
4.869
P 4.867
24
PCUL
46.579
44.358
48.337
47.167
45.744
45.082
44.540
44.275
45.447
44.714
42.041
46.755
44.919
44.499
25
PUSE
60.626
57.852
62.930
61.350
59.570
58.732
58.047
57.720
59.241
58.251
54.925
60.969
58.492
57.942
26
PLAPS
2.063
1.841
2.073
2.105
2.024
1.993
1.968
1.932
1.966
1.987
1.724
1.960
2.010
2.004
27
PLAPL
1.460
1.458
1.471
1.471
1.446
1.435
1.426
1.429
1.430
1.430
1.422
1.433
1.435
1.429
28
PLAJG
1.762
1.721
1.744
1.760
1.768
1.772
1.775
1.766
1.765
1.775
1.732
1.750
1.774
1.778
29
PLAKT
0.467
0.468
0.457
0.463
0.473
0.477
0.481
0.480
0.476
0.480
0.483
0.469
0.478
0.481
30
PLAKD
0.485
0.445
0.445
0.486
0.494
0.501
0.506
0.496
0.484
0.510
0.464
0.449
0.515
0.526
31
PLAUJ
0.684
0.738
0.650
0.672
0.701
0.714
0.725
0.732
0.708
0.722
0.785
0.683
0.718
0.726
32
PLAUK
0.622
0.582
0.652
0.634
0.602
0.587
0.575
0.571
0.590
0.579
0.530
0.611
0.583
0.573
33
PPKOT
10.084
9.206
10.752
10.230
9.836
9.638
9.477
9.357
9.834
9.506
8.502
10.358
9.539
9.387
34
PLAKR
3.536
3.203
3.985
3.638
3.357
3.215
3.099
3.071
3.336
3.118
2.718
3.684
3.140
3.028
35
PLAKS
1.032
0.997
0.929
1.141
0.964
0.909
0.864
0.869
0.789
0.924
0.814
0.665
0.999
1.019
36
PLAKL
0.584
0.635
0.558
0.568
0.603
0.617
0.630
0.636
0.617
0.624
0.687
0.600
0.617
0.625
37
PLAKP
7.059
6.869
6.881
6.985
7.153
7.228
7.289
7.233
7.199
7.263
7.100
7.070
7.232
7.272
38
PLAKM
0.535
0.527
0.506
0.553
0.525
0.516
0.509
0.510
0.489
0.519
0.499
0.457
0.532
0.536
39
PKBOT
6.380
5.161
7.802
6.583
5.941
5.593
5.309
5.162
6.085
5.321
3.943
7.239
5.328
5.012
40
PLFBD
0.478
0.451
0.494
0.482
0.471
0.466
0.461
0.457
0.470
0.462
0.431
0.482
0.462
0.457
41
PLFOW
0.118
0.105
0.091
0.110
0.131
0.141
0.149
0.144
0.135
0.147
0.137
0.114
0.145
0.153
42
POTKM
8.169
8.652
7.781
8.269
8.163
8.158
8.154
8.247
7.920
8.227
8.667
7.554
8.321
8.403
43
SSPG
26.569
26.174
26.688
26.618
26.508
26.459
26.420
26.354
26.480
26.437
25.987
26.567
26.459
26.434
44
SSKB
8.556
8.405
8.814
8.602
8.464
8.391
8.331
8.321
8.470
8.336
8.157
8.674
8.340
8.277
45
SSTN
3.618
3.632
3.626
3.610
3.623
3.628
3.631
3.633
3.636
3.627
3.646
3.646
3.621
3.620
46
SSIK
2.487
2.555
2.559
2.578
2.395
2.321
2.261
2.293
2.287
2.300
2.320
2.317
2.347
2.324
47
SSHT
3.361
3.405
3.333
3.350
3.375
3.386
3.395
3.401
3.381
3.392
3.445
3.362
3.388
3.394
310
Lampiran 12. Lanjutan A 48
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
0
P
ECOS
44.591
44.170
45.020
44.758
44.364
44.185
44.038
44.002
44.255
44.091
43.555
44.565
44.155
44.048
49
ECOG
3.156
4.030
2.490
2.845
3.512
3.795
4.027
4.130
3.690
3.907
5.020
3.209
3.761
3.886
50
PDBK
1.165
1.151
1.162
1.194
1.167
1.168
1.169
1.166
1.168
1.191
1.155
1.166
1.220
1.248
51
DEPR
66.543
66.852
66.852
67.426
66.214
65.952
65.738
65.865
65.865
66.292
66.020
66.020
66.999
67.416
52
TPAK
64.304
64.044
64.024
64.209
64.586
64.810
64.994
64.887
64.877
65.013
64.758
64.730
65.044
65.281
53
UNEM
5.064
4.796
4.911
5.272
4.772
4.540
4.350
4.355
4.205
4.414
4.018
3.943
4.489
4.345
54
LABS
73.227
74.705
73.367
73.022
73.090
72.983
72.895
73.220
72.953
72.698
74.468
73.024
72.442
72.103
55
PFOR
39.374
42.148
37.070
38.650
40.430
41.268
41.954
42.280
40.759
41.749
45.075
39.031
41.508
42.058
56
DEGHS
17.822
17.460
18.224
17.877
17.727
17.653
17.593
17.549
17.816
17.603
17.200
18.152
17.615
17.558
57
DEGTN
4.834
4.948
4.877
4.706
4.913
4.976
5.028
5.034
5.068
4.957
5.161
5.140
4.868
4.843
58
RHSTN
43.532
43.417
43.654
43.554
43.498
43.471
43.449
43.434
43.516
43.455
43.323
43.616
43.462
43.443
311
Lampiran 13. Hasil Simulasi Dampak Masing-masing Skenario Kebijakan Alokasi Pengeluaran Pemerintah pada Kawasan Jambi Nilai Simulasi No
Notasi
Prioritas 5%
Nilai Dasar
C
Relokasi Pengeluaran Rutin
P1
P2
P3
5%
10%
15%
D
E
F
G
H
I
Relokasi 15% Pengeluaran rutin dengan prioritas Prioritas 5% P1 J
P2 K
Prioritas 10% P3 L
P1 M
P2 N
P3 0
Relokasi 20% dengan P3 15%
A
B
1
PAGE
1.255
1.280
1.280
1.280
1.227
1.205
1.186
1.197
1.197
1.197
1.210
1.210
1.210
P 1.201
2
PIDE
1.496
1.346
1.346
1.346
1.661
1.794
1.905
1.841
1.841
1.841
1.763
1.763
1.763
1.813
3
PWRE
0.674
0.610
0.610
0.610
0.746
0.804
0.851
0.824
0.824
0.824
0.790
0.790
0.790
0.812
4
PTRE
11.652
14.890
10.661
10.661
12.746
13.626
14.355
14.890
13.932
13.932
18.130
13.417
13.417
13.753
5
PRDE
6.268
5.850
9.507
5.850
6.729
7.101
7.408
7.229
9.507
7.229
7.012
12.746
7.012
7.154
6
PHRE
4.804
4.549
4.549
8.043
5.086
5.313
5.500
5.391
5.391
8.043
5.259
5.259
11.283
14.522
7
PSRE
0.493
0.465
0.465
0.465
0.524
0.549
0.569
0.557
0.557
0.557
0.543
0.543
0.543
0.552
8
PSWE
1.593
1.413
1.413
1.413
1.791
1.950
2.082
2.005
2.005
2.005
1.912
1.912
1.912
1.973
9
PEVE
1.448
1.431
1.431
1.431
1.466
1.481
1.494
1.487
1.487
1.487
1.478
1.478
1.478
1.484
10
POTE
5.549
5.439
5.439
5.439
5.670
5.768
5.849
5.802
5.802
5.802
5.745
5.745
5.745
5.782
11
PDEX
35.230
37.272
36.700
36.538
37.646
39.590
41.197
41.222
42.541
42.916
43.840
44.862
45.152
49.046
12
PROC
82.798
80.045
83.598
84.608
81.248
80.004
78.976
78.631
79.192
79.878
75.707
79.336
80.993
80.881
13
PUKC
28.562
24.042
35.089
26.283
30.314
31.724
32.890
31.548
37.263
31.685
28.133
44.100
30.188
30.097
14
PAGC
67.474
62.522
67.815
70.881
64.555
62.210
60.274
59.678
59.956
61.973
54.377
59.126
64.069
63.856
15
PWET
2.210
2.192
2.215
2.202
2.213
2.215
2.217
2.213
2.221
2.212
2.197
2.227
2.205
2.201
16
PDRY
13.019
12.092
13.586
13.143
12.794
12.613
12.463
12.294
12.777
12.491
11.394
13.229
12.521
12.381
17
PEST
29.013
27.318
30.455
29.292
28.479
28.049
27.693
27.405
28.497
27.744
25.716
29.657
27.799
27.451
18
PDYK
0.043
0.060
0.036
0.038
0.048
0.053
0.057
0.060
0.053
0.055
0.077
0.049
0.052
0.055
19
PGRA
0.680
0.628
0.711
0.703
0.655
0.635
0.618
0.611
0.633
0.629
0.558
0.652
0.641
0.635
20
PTEM
5.402
5.346
5.603
5.379
5.376
5.355
5.338
5.330
5.459
5.313
5.269
5.640
5.281
5.232
21
PWOD
8.945
9.421
8.562
9.038
8.946
8.946
8.947
9.055
8.708
9.017
9.482
8.344
9.105
9.189
22
PSWA
1.954
1.509
2.238
2.079
1.787
1.652
1.540
1.470
1.688
1.585
1.019
1.892
1.638
1.563
312
Lampiran 13. Lanjutan D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
0
23
A
PHOU
B
C 2.804
2.770
2.825
2.811
2.798
2.793
2.788
2.782
2.800
2.791
2.749
2.817
2.795
P 2.793
24
PCUL
53.909
51.711
55.564
54.416
53.134
52.511
51.995
51.637
52.889
52.147
49.423
54.156
52.324
51.912
25
PUSE
64.069
61.337
66.229
64.684
63.095
62.310
61.661
61.219
62.835
61.836
58.460
64.505
62.039
61.500
26
PLAPS
1.435
1.214
1.442
1.474
1.397
1.368
1.343
1.300
1.341
1.361
1.092
1.334
1.384
1.378
27
PLAPL
1.260
1.260
1.267
1.269
1.248
1.238
1.230
1.233
1.233
1.234
1.228
1.234
1.237
1.232
28
PLAJG
0.426
0.386
0.407
0.423
0.431
0.435
0.439
0.429
0.428
0.438
0.395
0.412
0.438
0.441
29
PLAKT
0.090
0.092
0.081
0.087
0.096
0.100
0.103
0.103
0.098
0.102
0.106
0.091
0.101
0.103
30
PLAKD
0.182
0.138
0.146
0.185
0.188
0.193
0.197
0.186
0.176
0.202
0.151
0.144
0.208
0.218
31
PLAUJ
0.087
0.139
0.055
0.077
0.102
0.114
0.125
0.134
0.108
0.122
0.186
0.084
0.118
0.127
32
PLAUK
0.346
0.310
0.373
0.356
0.330
0.316
0.305
0.300
0.319
0.308
0.261
0.338
0.311
0.302
33
PPKOT
10.628
9.767
11.258
10.747
10.400
10.216
10.064
9.910
10.416
10.086
9.067
10.925
10.109
9.959
34
PLAKR
15.543
15.225
15.957
15.622
15.382
15.253
15.146
15.103
15.376
15.159
14.764
15.708
15.171
15.063
35
PLAKS
2.339
2.282
2.246
2.450
2.267
2.208
2.160
2.161
2.089
2.222
2.089
1.972
2.299
2.317
36
PLAKL
0.400
0.451
0.377
0.387
0.418
0.432
0.443
0.451
0.431
0.438
0.502
0.415
0.432
0.439
37
PLAKP
1.184
1.006
1.012
1.116
1.273
1.346
1.405
1.349
1.314
1.381
1.221
1.187
1.352
1.392
38
PLAKM
3.992
3.982
3.963
4.009
3.981
3.973
3.966
3.965
3.946
3.976
3.954
3.914
3.988
3.992
39
PKBOT
5.556
4.371
6.900
5.708
5.158
4.838
4.572
4.376
5.340
4.569
3.186
6.460
4.557
4.248
40
PLFBD
0.073
0.048
0.087
0.075
0.067
0.062
0.058
0.054
0.066
0.058
0.029
0.077
0.058
0.054
41
PLFOW
1.303
1.289
1.278
1.296
1.314
1.323
1.330
1.325
1.317
1.329
1.318
1.297
1.328
1.335
42
POTKM
9.667
10.110
9.308
9.779
9.649
9.634
9.622
9.725
9.394
9.700
10.117
9.045
9.799
9.878
43
SSPG
20.367
19.974
20.484
20.413
20.308
20.261
20.221
20.143
20.283
20.238
19.774
20.370
20.259
20.234
44
SSKB
15.273
15.131
15.512
15.306
15.191
15.125
15.071
15.054
15.206
15.072
14.899
15.401
15.072
15.010
45
SSTN
3.593
3.607
3.599
3.584
3.598
3.602
3.606
3.608
3.611
3.601
3.623
3.620
3.596
3.595
46
SSIK
5.301
5.361
5.366
5.385
5.214
5.143
5.085
5.114
5.110
5.122
5.139
5.137
5.167
5.144
47
SSHT
0.667
0.711
0.641
0.657
0.680
0.691
0.700
0.707
0.686
0.696
0.750
0.667
0.693
0.699
313
Lampiran 13. Lanjutan A 48
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
0
P
ECOS
45.200
44.783
45.601
45.345
44.991
44.822
44.682
44.626
44.895
44.730
44.184
45.194
44.786
44.681
49
ECOG
3.559
4.478
2.892
3.260
3.913
4.198
4.433
4.577
4.082
4.313
5.503
3.590
4.169
4.298
50
PDBK
1.169
1.156
1.165
1.197
1.171
1.172
1.174
1.171
1.172
1.196
1.160
1.169
1.224
1.252
51
DEPR
61.575
61.856
61.856
62.426
61.264
61.015
60.808
60.928
60.928
61.361
61.074
61.074
62.057
62.477
52
TPAK
59.425
59.189
59.170
59.354
59.692
59.906
60.084
59.982
59.972
60.110
59.861
59.833
60.148
60.383
53
UNEM
3.174
2.881
3.012
3.364
2.893
2.667
2.481
2.465
2.329
2.540
2.113
2.067
2.610
2.466
54
LABS
73.619
75.156
73.662
73.361
73.535
73.467
73.409
73.774
73.425
73.191
75.092
73.441
72.912
72.587
55
PFOR
35.931
38.663
33.771
35.316
36.905
37.690
38.339
38.781
37.165
38.164
41.540
35.496
37.961
38.500
56
DEGHS
8.696
8.420
9.017
8.708
8.645
8.603
8.567
8.515
8.760
8.562
8.237
9.049
8.555
8.509
57
DEGTN
7.429
7.546
7.477
7.308
7.504
7.564
7.614
7.627
7.657
7.544
7.755
7.731
7.457
7.432
58
RHSTN
59.964
59.860
60.074
59.979
59.936
59.914
59.896
59.877
59.960
59.899
59.774
60.053
59.903
59.886
314
Lampiran 14. Hasil Simulasi Dampak Masing-masing Skenario Kebijakan Alokasi Pengeluaran Pemerintah pada Kawasan Sumbar Nilai Simulasi No
Notasi
Prioritas 5%
Nilai Dasar
C
Relokasi Pengeluaran Rutin
P1
P2
P3
5%
10%
15%
D
E
F
G
H
I
Relokasi 15% Pengeluaran rutin dengan prioritas Prioritas 5% P1 J
P2 K
Prioritas 10% P3 L
P1 M
P2 N
P3 0
Relokasi 20% dengan P3 15%
A
B
1
PAGE
1.286
1.310
1.310
1.310
1.259
1.237
1.219
1.229
1.229
1.229
1.242
1.242
1.242
P 1.233
2
PIDE
1.357
1.214
1.214
1.214
1.516
1.645
1.752
1.690
1.690
1.690
1.616
1.616
1.616
1.665
3
PWRE
0.305
0.243
0.243
0.243
0.374
0.429
0.476
0.449
0.449
0.449
0.417
0.417
0.417
0.438
4
PTRE
13.816
17.029
12.871
12.871
14.871
15.722
16.428
17.029
16.021
16.021
20.242
15.527
15.527
15.855
5
PRDE
7.148
6.750
10.361
6.750
7.593
7.952
8.250
8.078
10.361
8.078
7.870
13.575
7.870
8.008
6
PHRE
4.885
4.642
4.642
8.098
5.157
5.376
5.558
5.453
5.453
8.098
5.326
5.326
11.312
14.525
7
PSRE
0.211
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.241
0.265
0.284
0.273
0.273
0.273
0.259
0.259
0.259
0.268
8
PSWE
1.314
1.143
1.143
1.143
1.505
1.659
1.787
1.713
1.713
1.713
1.623
1.623
1.623
1.683
9
PEVE
1.283
1.267
1.267
1.267
1.301
1.316
1.328
1.321
1.321
1.321
1.313
1.313
1.313
1.318
10
POTE
4.128
4.023
4.023
4.023
4.245
4.340
4.418
4.373
4.373
4.373
4.318
4.318
4.318
4.355
11
PDEX
35.732
37.804
37.258
37.103
38.060
39.940
41.499
41.608
42.883
43.246
44.224
45.214
45.495
49.348
12
PROC
76.070
73.174
76.926
77.827
74.528
73.279
72.241
71.799
72.527
73.134
68.640
72.753
74.231
74.098
13
PUKC
48.099
43.644
54.643
45.907
49.767
51.113
52.228
50.866
56.675
51.054
47.417
63.510
49.603
49.493
14
PAGC
54.033
48.814
54.488
57.339
51.130
48.780
46.826
46.051
46.633
48.505
40.316
45.964
50.569
50.317
15
PWET
6.372
6.357
6.374
6.363
6.376
6.379
6.381
6.377
6.383
6.376
6.367
6.386
6.369
6.366
16
PDRY
12.593
11.687
13.138
12.708
12.380
12.209
12.066
11.883
12.371
12.090
11.010
12.807
12.115
11.980
17
PEST
8.476
6.823
9.863
8.731
7.970
7.563
7.225
6.910
8.006
7.267
5.280
9.127
7.311
6.973
18
PDYK
0.073
0.090
0.066
0.068
0.078
0.083
0.086
0.089
0.083
0.084
0.107
0.079
0.082
0.084
19
PGRA
1.586
1.533
1.618
1.609
1.561
1.541
1.525
1.516
1.541
1.535
1.460
1.561
1.548
1.541
20
PTEM
2.445
2.401
2.634
2.420
2.424
2.407
2.394
2.387
2.508
2.368
2.346
2.678
2.335
2.288
21
PWOD
14.488
14.936
14.124
14.581
14.482
14.476
14.472
14.581
14.244
14.543
14.971
13.897
14.633
14.712
22
PSWA
1.286
1.310
1.310
1.310
1.259
1.237
1.219
1.229
1.229
1.229
1.242
1.242
1.242
1.233
315
Lampiran 14. Lanjutan D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
0
P
23
A
PHOU
B
C 0.396
0.004
0.669
0.514
0.236
0.106
0.001
0.008
0.142
0.041
0.005
0.340
0.091
0.018
24
PCUL
2.759
2.726
2.779
2.765
2.753
2.748
2.744
2.737
2.755
2.747
2.706
2.771
2.751
2.749
25
PUSE
43.587
41.426
45.182
44.061
42.847
42.250
41.755
41.356
42.627
41.895
39.193
43.857
42.057
41.655
26
PLAPS
49.188
46.510
51.264
49.761
48.260
47.512
46.892
46.400
48.032
47.050
43.722
49.646
47.234
46.710
27
PLAPL
5.975
5.757
5.982
6.013
5.939
5.910
5.886
5.839
5.884
5.904
5.632
5.876
5.926
5.920
28
PLAJG
0.092
0.094
0.097
0.100
0.082
0.073
0.066
0.068
0.067
0.069
0.067
0.067
0.072
0.067
29
PLAKT
0.346
0.307
0.327
0.343
0.351
0.355
0.358
0.348
0.348
0.358
0.315
0.332
0.358
0.361
30
PLAKD
0.177
0.178
0.168
0.174
0.182
0.186
0.189
0.189
0.185
0.188
0.192
0.178
0.187
0.189
31
PLAUJ
0.283
0.238
0.250
0.287
0.288
0.292
0.296
0.284
0.276
0.300
0.244
0.247
0.307
0.316
32
PLAUK
0.063
0.114
0.032
0.053
0.077
0.089
0.099
0.109
0.083
0.096
0.160
0.059
0.093
0.101
33
PPKOT
0.126
0.091
0.150
0.135
0.110
0.098
0.088
0.082
0.100
0.090
0.048
0.117
0.093
0.084
34
PLAKR
11.507
10.664
12.114
11.616
11.290
11.115
10.970
10.803
11.314
10.988
9.985
11.807
11.007
10.862
35
PLAKS
1.742
1.439
2.136
1.814
1.592
1.471
1.371
1.323
1.591
1.381
1.010
1.908
1.389
1.286
36
PLAKL
0.512
0.442
0.428
0.621
0.438
0.378
0.328
0.323
0.263
0.390
0.230
0.155
0.466
0.481
37
PLAKP
1.080
1.129
1.057
1.067
1.096
1.110
1.121
1.130
1.109
1.116
1.179
1.094
1.110
1.117
38
PLAKM
1.518
1.348
1.350
1.454
1.605
1.675
1.733
1.677
1.643
1.710
1.555
1.517
1.683
1.722
39
PKBOT
1.336
1.326
1.308
1.353
1.326
1.317
1.310
1.310
1.291
1.320
1.297
1.260
1.333
1.336
40
PLFBD
2.288
1.139
3.584
2.423
1.913
1.611
1.361
1.146
2.109
1.350
0.010
3.194
1.330
1.030
41
PLFOW
0.083
0.059
0.096
0.085
0.077
0.073
0.069
0.065
0.076
0.069
0.042
0.087
0.069
0.065
42
POTKM
2.103
2.089
2.079
2.097
2.113
2.121
2.128
2.123
2.116
2.127
2.114
2.097
2.126
2.133
43
SSPG
16.146
16.559
15.807
16.259
16.121
16.100
16.083
16.187
15.867
16.162
16.537
15.537
16.262
16.337
44
SSKB
22.221
21.829
22.336
22.265
22.163
22.116
22.077
21.992
22.140
22.094
21.623
22.227
22.113
22.088
45
SSTN
6.043
5.911
6.270
6.073
5.968
5.907
5.856
5.837
5.985
5.855
5.697
6.171
5.853
5.794
46
SSIK
2.836
2.851
2.842
2.828
2.841
2.846
2.850
2.852
2.854
2.845
2.868
2.862
2.840
2.839
47
SSHT
0.977
1.034
1.039
1.057
0.893
0.824
0.768
0.796
0.792
0.804
0.818
0.818
0.847
0.824
316
Lampiran 14. Lanjutan A 48
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
0
P
ECOS
34.902
34.493
35.287
35.038
34.702
34.541
34.407
34.342
34.613
34.451
33.914
34.902
34.503
34.401
49
ECOG
3.835
4.777
3.163
3.547
4.186
4.470
4.706
4.876
4.341
4.589
5.846
3.838
4.448
4.581
50
PDBK
1.260
1.249
1.256
1.288
1.262
1.264
1.266
1.262
1.263
1.288
1.253
1.260
1.316
1.343
51
DEPR
74.065
74.333
74.333
74.897
73.766
73.524
73.324
73.440
73.440
73.871
73.580
73.580
74.557
74.974
52
TPAK
54.838
54.613
54.593
54.776
55.095
55.302
55.474
55.376
55.366
55.503
55.260
55.232
55.545
55.778
53
UNEM
4.133
3.827
3.971
4.313
3.859
3.638
3.454
3.426
3.304
3.510
3.059
3.047
3.576
3.433
54
LABS
66.408
67.990
66.392
66.142
66.351
66.308
66.273
66.666
66.241
66.047
68.092
66.203
65.762
65.454
55
PFOR
50.813
53.490
48.736
50.239
51.740
52.488
53.108
53.600
51.968
52.950
56.278
50.354
52.767
53.290
56
DEGHS
7.317
7.105
7.584
7.319
7.287
7.265
7.248
7.202
7.402
7.237
7.031
7.644
7.223
7.189
57
DEGTN
7.181
7.298
7.230
7.064
7.253
7.312
7.360
7.376
7.404
7.292
7.505
7.478
7.206
7.181
58
RHSTN
127.414
127.319
127.516
127.427
127.390
127.371
127.355
127.336
127.414
127.357
127.246
127.501
127.360
127.345
317
Lampiran 15. Program Peramalan Variabel Eksogen Tahun 2004 - 2010 Menggunakan Metode STEPAR Trend 2 OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; RUN; DATA ekso; SET REKAP; ROIBR = PBER/PFER; ROIKR = PKRT/PFER; ROIJG = PJGG/PFER; ROIKT = PKCT/PFER; ROIKL = PKLP/PFER; ROIKS = PMSWT/PFER; ROIUJ = PUBJ/PFER; ROIKP = PKOP/PFER; ROIKD = PKED/PFER; ROIUK = PUBK/PFER; ROIKM = PKMN/PFER; RPIKB = (PIKB/PBER)*100; RPIKO = (PIKO/PBER)*100; RKBMT = PKYB/PMTN; ROIBR = PBER/PFER; RSKB = SKBD ‐ INFL; RPLO = PLOG ‐ (0.01*INFL*PLOG); RPLOG = RPLO/1000; RUMR = UMR ‐ (0.01*INFL*UMR); UMRR = RUMR/1000; RPFE = PFER ‐ (0.01*INFL*PFER); RPFER = RPFE/1000; RPSM = PSMN ‐ (0.01*INFL*PSMN); RPSMN = RPSM/1000; RAGW = AGWA ‐ (0.01*INFL*AGWA); RAGWA = RAGW/1000; RWIND = UMRR/RAGWA;
LKAW = LREG ‐ LTNKS; PWET = (WETL/LKAW)*100; PDRY = (DRYL/LKAW)*100; PEST = (ESTL/LKAW)*100; PGRA = (GRAS/LKAW)*100; PDYK = (DYPO/LKAW)*100; PWOD = (WOOD/LKAW)*100; PTEM = (TEMP/LKAW)*100; PSWA = (SWAM/LKAW)*100; PHOU = (HOUS/LKAW)*100; PCUL = PWET + PDRY + PEST + PGRA + PDYK + PWOD; PUSE = PCUL + PTEM + PSWA + PHOU; PFOR = 100 ‐ PUSE; PLAPS = (LAPS/LKAW)*100; PLAPL = (LAPL/LKAW)*100; PLAJG = (LAJG/LKAW)*100; PLAKT = (LAKT/LKAW)*100; PLAKD = (LAKD/LKAW)*100; PLAUK = (LAUK/LKAW)*100; PLAUJ = (LAUJ/LKAW)*100; PLAKR = (LAKR/LKAW)*100; PLAKP = (LAKP/LKAW)*100; PLAKS = (LAKS/LKAW)*100; PLAKM = (LAKM/LKAW)*100; PLAKL = (LAKL/LKAW)*100; PLFOW = (LFOW/LKAW)*100; PLFBD = (LFBD/LKAW)*100; PPKOT = PDRY ‐ PLAPL ‐ PLAJG ‐ PLAKT ‐ PLAKD ‐ PLAUJ ‐ PLAUK; PKBOT = PEST ‐ PLAKR ‐ PLAKS ‐ PLAKL ‐ PLAKP ‐ PLAKM; POTKM = PCUL ‐ PWET ‐ PDRY ‐ PEST; DEGH = HTK93‐HSTNK; DEGHS = (DEGH/HTK93)*100; DEGT = LTNKS ‐ HTNK;
318
DEGTN = (DEGT/LTNKS)*100; RHSTN = (HSTNK/LTNKS)*100; PHSTN = (HSTNK/LKAW)*100; SSPG = (DPSP/GDP)*100; SSKB = (DPSK/GDP)*100; SSTN = (DPST/GDP)*100; SSIK = (DPSI/GDP)*100; SSHT = (DPSH/GDP)*100; ECOS = SSPG + SSKB + SSTN + SSIK + SSHT; SSNPT = 100 ‐ ECOS; DGDP = GDP‐GDP1; ECOG = (DGDP/GDP1)*100; PDBK = GDP/POP; SEXR = (PLK/PWN)*100; PPOP = POP‐POP1; POPG = (PPOP/POP1)*100; POPD = (POP/LKAW)*100; RJAK = POP/JRTG; REPG = ECOG/POPG; LABS = (LAGR/WORK)*100; ABA = (PK15/PUPR)*100; ABT = (PB65/PUPR)*100; DEPR = ABA + ABT; TPAK = (LFOR/PUK)*100; UNEM = (LFWR/LFOR)*100; PPUK = (PUK/POP)*100; PPAD = (0.001*PAD)/GDP; TEXP = CEXP + DEXP; BREV = TREV ‐ PAD; GRES = PAD/BREV; REXP = CEXP/DEXP; PAGE = (AGDE/TEXP)*100; PIDE = (IDDE/TEXP)*100; PTRE = (TRDE/TEXP)*100; PRDE = (RDDE/TEXP)*100; PHRE = (HRDE/TEXP)*100; PSRE = (SRDE/TEXP)*100;
PSWE = (SWDE/TEXP)*100; PEVE = (EVDE/TEXP)*100; PWRE = (WRDE/TEXP)*100; POTE = (OTDE/TEXP)*100; PROC = (INMC/TCRE)*100; PAGC = (AGRC/TCRE)*100; PUKC = (UKMC/TCRE)*100; PDEX = PAGE + PWRE + PHRE + PSWE + PEVE + PRDE + PSRE + PTRE + PIDE + POTE; Run; data reg1; set ekso; if region = 'Bengkulu'; proc forecast data=reg1 out = regbg outdata lead=7 method=stepar trend =2; id NO; var PAGE PIDE PWRE PTRE PRDE PHRE PSRE PSWE PEVE POTE PDEX PROC PUKC PAGC PWET PDRY PEST PDYK PGRA PTEM PWOD PSWA PHOU PCUL PUSE PLAPS PLAPL PLAJG PLAKT PLAKD PLAUJ PLAUK PPKOT PLAKR PLAKS PLAKL PLAKP PLAKM PKBOT PLFBD PLFOW POTKM SSPG SSKB SSTN SSIK SSHT ECOS ECOG PDBK DEPR TPAK UNEM LABS PFOR DEGHS DEGTN RHSTN AGDE TRDE RDDE IDDE WRDE EVDE HRDE SRDE SWDE OTDE CEXP DEXP PPAD GRES PVPS PVPL PVJG PVKD PVUJ PVUK PVKL PVKM PVKP PVKR PVKS PVKT PVOW PVBD PVOW POPK POPM POPS ROIBR ROIJG ROIKD ROIKT ROIUJ ROIUK ROIKL ROIKM ROIKP ROIKR ROIKS RPIKB RPIKO RPLOG RAGWA JRTG RJAK RKBMT PHSTN RWIND RPFER UMRR RPSMN SSNPT LHPHS POPD POPG PPUK SEXR RSKB DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR; run; data reg2; set ekso; if region = 'Jambi'; proc forecast data=reg2 out = regjb outdata lead=7 method=stepar trend =2; id NO;
319
var
PAGE PIDE PWRE PTRE PRDE PHRE PSRE PSWE PEVE POTE PDEX PROC PUKC PAGC PWET PDRY PEST PDYK PGRA PTEM PWOD PSWA PHOU PCUL PUSE PLAPS PLAPL PLAJG PLAKT PLAKD PLAUJ PLAUK PPKOT PLAKR PLAKS PLAKL PLAKP PLAKM PKBOT PLFBD PLFOW POTKM SSPG SSKB SSTN SSIK SSHT ECOS ECOG PDBK DEPR TPAK UNEM LABS PFOR DEGHS DEGTN RHSTN AGDE TRDE RDDE IDDE WRDE EVDE HRDE SRDE SWDE OTDE CEXP DEXP PPAD GRES PVPS PVPL PVJG PVKD PVUJ PVUK PVKL PVKM PVKP PVKR PVKS PVKT PVOW PVBD PVOW POPK POPM POPS ROIBR ROIJG ROIKD ROIKT ROIUJ ROIUK ROIKL ROIKM ROIKP ROIKR ROIKS RPIKB RPIKO RPLOG RAGWA JRTG RJAK RKBMT PHSTN RWIND RPFER UMRR RPSMN SSNPT LHPHS POPD POPG PPUK SEXR RSKB DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR;
run; data reg3; set ekso; if region = 'Sumbar'; proc forecast data=reg3 out = regsb outdata lead=7 method=stepar trend =2;
id NO; var PAGE PIDE PWRE PTRE PRDE PHRE PSRE PSWE PEVE POTE PDEX PROC PUKC PAGC PWET PDRY PEST PDYK PGRA PTEM PWOD PSWA PHOU PCUL PUSE PLAPS PLAPL PLAJG PLAKT PLAKD PLAUJ PLAUK PPKOT PLAKR PLAKS PLAKL PLAKP PLAKM PKBOT PLFBD PLFOW POTKM SSPG SSKB SSTN SSIK SSHT ECOS ECOG PDBK DEPR TPAK UNEM LABS PFOR DEGHS DEGTN RHSTN AGDE TRDE RDDE IDDE WRDE EVDE HRDE SRDE SWDE OTDE CEXP DEXP PPAD GRES PVPS PVPL PVJG PVKD PVUJ PVUK PVKL PVKM PVKP PVKR PVKS PVKT PVOW PVBD PVOW POPK POPM POPS ROIBR ROIJG ROIKD ROIKT ROIUJ ROIUK ROIKL ROIKM ROIKP ROIKR ROIKS RPIKB RPIKO RPLOG RAGWA JRTG RJAK RKBMT PHSTN RWIND RPFER UMRR RPSMN SSNPT LHPHS POPD POPG PPUK SEXR RSKB DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR; run;
320
Lampiran 16. Hasil Peramalan Nilai Variabel Exsogen Tahun 2004 – 2010 Mengunakan Metode Stepart Trend 2 NO
REGION
_TYPE_
_LEAD_
YEAR
AGDE
TRDE
RDDE
IDDE
WRDE
EVDE
HRDE
SRDE
SWDE
OTDE
11
BENGKULU
FORECAST
1
2004
5,617.6
17,901.6
16,986.9
6,055.7
5,208.9
2,217.9
12,882.3
1,416.7
7,168.7
33,716.9
12 13
BENGKULU
FORECAST
2
2005
6,143.2
18,425.3
18,196.3
6,643.3
5,843.4
2,323.5
13,932.8
1,572.5
7,762.2
37,617.4
BENGKULU
FORECAST
3
2006
6,668.8
18,949.0
19,405.6
7,230.9
6,477.9
2,429.1
14,983.2
1,728.3
8,355.7
41,517.9
14
BENGKULU
FORECAST
4
2007
7,194.5
19,472.6
20,614.9
7,818.5
7,112.4
2,534.7
16,033.6
1,884.1
8,949.1
45,418.4
15
BENGKULU
FORECAST
5
2008
7,720.1
19,996.3
21,824.3
8,406.1
7,746.9
2,640.2
17,084.1
2,039.9
9,542.6
49,318.9
16
BENGKULU
FORECAST
6
2009
8,245.7
20,520.0
23,033.6
8,993.7
8,381.4
2,745.8
18,134.5
2,195.7
10,136.1
53,219.4
17
BENGKULU
FORECAST
7
2010
8,771.4
21,043.6
24,243.0
9,581.2
9,015.9
2,851.4
19,185.0
2,351.5
10,729.6
57,119.9
21
JAMBI
FORECAST
1
2004
3,117.0
34,615.7
17,422.6
8,038.0
6,163.9
3,443.6
8,974.1
1,960.9
5,816.9
20,418.7
22
JAMBI
FORECAST
2
2005
3,344.8
37,526.5
18,805.4
8,936.1
6,935.0
3,677.0
9,404.8
2,157.1
6,366.9
22,369.5
23
JAMBI
FORECAST
3
2006
3,572.5
40,437.3
20,188.2
9,834.2
7,706.0
3,910.4
9,835.5
2,353.4
6,916.9
24,320.2
24
JAMBI
FORECAST
4
2007
3,800.3
43,348.1
21,571.0
10,732.2
8,477.1
4,143.8
10,266.3
2,549.6
7,466.9
26,271.0
25
JAMBI
FORECAST
5
2008
4,028.0
46,258.9
22,953.8
11,630.3
9,248.1
4,377.2
10,697.0
2,745.9
8,016.9
28,221.7
26
JAMBI
FORECAST
6
2009
4,255.8
49,169.6
24,336.6
12,528.4
10,019.2
4,610.5
11,127.7
2,942.1
8,566.9
30,172.5
27
JAMBI
FORECAST
7
2010
4,483.6
52,080.4
25,719.4
13,426.5
10,790.2
4,843.9
11,558.5
3,138.3
9,116.9
32,123.2
31
SUMBAR
FORECAST
1
2004
4,882.5
37,406.3
13,059.0
4,841.5
2,884.8
3,846.9
16,470.1
1,139.9
4,438.4
23,646.5
32
SUMBAR
FORECAST
2
2005
5,358.4
40,432.7
13,713.8
5,302.1
3,237.8
4,177.2
17,985.3
1,265.7
4,851.0
26,280.9
33
SUMBAR
FORECAST
3
2006
5,834.4
43,459.0
14,368.5
5,762.8
3,590.7
4,507.4
19,500.6
1,391.5
5,263.7
28,915.3
34
SUMBAR
FORECAST
4
2007
6,310.3
46,485.4
15,023.2
6,223.4
3,943.7
4,837.6
21,015.9
1,517.3
5,676.3
31,549.7
35
SUMBAR
FORECAST
5
2008
6,786.2
49,511.7
15,677.9
6,684.0
4,296.6
5,167.9
22,531.1
1,643.1
6,089.0
34,184.1
36
SUMBAR
FORECAST
6
2009
7,262.1
52,538.0
16,332.6
7,144.7
4,649.6
5,498.1
24,046.4
1,768.8
6,501.6
36,818.5
37
SUMBAR
FORECAST
7
2010
7,738.1
55,564.4
16,987.4
7,605.3
5,002.5
5,828.3
25,561.7
1,894.6
6,914.3
39,452.9
321
Lampiran 16. Lanjutan NO
OTDE
CEXP
DEXP
PPAD
GRES
PVPS
PVPL
PVJG
PVKD
PVUJ
PVUK
PVKL
PVKM
PVKP
PVKR
PVKS
PVKT
PVOW
PVBD
11
33,716.9
329,787.5
109,173.3
0.02
0.03
7.96
2.60
2.03
0.89
10.07
11.60
0.17
0.66
0.43
0.65
0.03
1.01
129.25
96.57
12
37,617.4
365,145.7
118,459.8
0.02
0.03
8.00
2.67
2.02
0.89
10.04
11.57
0.05
0.72
0.44
0.67
0.02
1.01
134.16
99.08
13
41,517.9
400,504.0
127,746.3
0.02
0.03
8.05
2.75
2.00
0.89
10.02
11.54
0.05
0.77
0.45
0.70
0.02
1.02
139.08
101.59
14
45,418.4
435,862.3
137,032.8
0.02
0.03
8.10
2.82
1.99
0.89
10.00
11.52
0.05
0.83
0.46
0.73
0.01
1.03
143.99
104.10
15
49,318.9
471,220.6
146,319.3
0.02
0.03
8.14
2.90
1.97
0.89
9.98
11.49
0.05
0.88
0.47
0.76
0.01
1.03
148.90
106.61
16
53,219.4
506,578.8
155,605.8
0.02
0.03
8.19
2.98
1.96
0.89
9.96
11.46
0.05
0.94
0.48
0.78
0.00
1.04
153.81
109.13
17
57,119.9
541,937.1
164,892.3
0.02
0.03
8.24
3.05
1.94
0.89
9.94
11.44
0.05
1.00
0.49
0.81
0.00
1.04
158.73
111.64
21
20,418.7
274,010.4
109,996.1
0.02
0.04
7.52
2.20
2.44
1.20
9.66
12.53
0.14
0.37
0.34
0.32
5.96
1.08
34.57
109.45
22
22,369.5
301,933.2
119,554.4
0.02
0.04
7.30
2.19
2.54
1.21
9.96
11.28
0.13
0.37
0.36
0.32
6.50
1.05
36.74
111.04
23
24,320.2
329,855.9
129,112.7
0.02
0.05
7.07
2.17
2.65
1.23
10.26
11.15
0.13
0.38
0.38
0.31
7.05
1.02
38.90
112.63
24
26,271.0
357,778.7
138,670.9
0.02
0.05
6.85
2.16
2.75
1.24
10.56
12.06
0.13
0.38
0.40
0.31
7.59
1.00
41.07
114.22
25
28,221.7
385,701.5
148,229.2
0.02
0.05
6.62
2.14
2.85
1.25
10.87
12.17
0.13
0.39
0.42
0.31
8.13
0.97
43.23
115.81
26
30,172.5
413,624.3
157,787.5
0.03
0.05
6.40
2.12
2.95
1.26
11.17
11.54
0.13
0.39
0.44
0.30
8.67
0.94
45.39
117.40
27
32,123.2
441,547.1
167,345.8
0.03
0.05
6.17
2.11
3.05
1.27
11.47
11.47
0.13
0.40
0.46
0.30
9.21
0.92
47.56
118.99
31
23,646.5
338,428.8
112,616.0
0.01
0.03
9.10
2.23
3.32
1.37
10.27
12.31
0.58
0.31
0.38
0.46
4.51
1.34
121.03
79.39
32
26,280.9
375,655.8
122,604.9
0.02
0.03
9.09
2.21
3.44
1.39
10.23
12.29
0.58
0.29
0.37
0.46
4.92
1.38
128.60
77.02
33
28,915.3
412,882.9
132,593.8
0.02
0.03
9.07
2.20
3.57
1.42
10.18
12.26
0.59
0.28
0.37
0.47
5.33
1.42
136.18
74.66
34
31,549.7
450,109.9
142,582.7
0.02
0.03
9.06
2.18
3.70
1.44
10.13
12.24
0.60
0.26
0.37
0.48
5.73
1.46
143.76
72.29
35
34,184.1
487,337.0
152,571.6
0.02
0.03
9.05
2.16
3.83
1.47
10.08
12.21
0.61
0.25
0.37
0.48
6.14
1.49
151.34
69.93
36
36,818.5
524,564.0
162,560.5
0.02
0.03
9.04
2.15
3.96
1.49
10.04
12.19
0.61
0.23
0.37
0.49
6.55
1.53
158.92
67.56
37
39,452.9
561,791.1
172,549.3
0.02
0.03
9.03
2.13
4.09
1.51
9.99
12.16
0.62
0.22
0.36
0.50
6.96
1.57
166.50
65.20
322
Lampiran 16. Lanjutan NO
POPK
POPM
POPS
ROIBR
ROIJG
ROIKD
ROIKT
ROIUJ
ROIUK
ROIKL
ROIKM
ROIKP
ROIKR
ROIKS
RPIKB
RPIKO
RPLOG
RAGWA
11
12.39
104.28
43.58
2.11
0.67
3.34
5.90
0.45
0.39
0.43
0.67
0.51
3.83
2.02
319.85
437.41
22.62
9.25
12
9.54
94.90
42.20
2.12
0.66
3.43
6.18
0.45
0.40
0.41
0.11
0.51
3.86
2.02
270.59
440.37
24.68
10.16
13
6.69
85.53
40.81
2.14
0.64
3.52
6.45
0.45
0.41
0.40
0.11
0.51
3.89
2.03
221.33
443.33
26.74
11.06
14
3.84
76.15
39.43
2.15
0.63
3.62
6.73
0.45
0.42
0.38
0.11
0.51
3.92
2.03
172.07
446.29
28.79
11.97
15
1.00
66.78
38.05
2.17
0.62
3.71
7.01
0.45
0.43
0.36
0.11
0.51
3.95
2.03
122.81
449.25
30.85
12.88
16
1.00
57.40
36.66
2.18
0.60
3.80
7.29
0.45
0.44
0.34
0.11
0.51
3.98
2.03
73.56
452.20
32.90
13.79
17
1.00
48.03
35.28
2.20
0.59
3.90
7.57
0.45
0.45
0.32
0.11
0.51
4.01
2.04
24.30
455.16
34.96
14.70
21
11.42
37.70
68.54
2.99
1.17
3.69
6.86
0.67
0.71
0.56
0.65
1.98
5.25
2.66
190.70
268.84
37.10
11.03
22
8.53
35.95
67.10
3.10
1.19
3.85
7.15
0.69
0.76
0.53
0.65
1.98
5.29
2.63
114.42
265.08
40.66
12.11
23
5.64
34.20
65.67
3.21
1.21
4.02
7.43
0.71
0.80
0.51
0.65
1.98
5.34
2.61
38.15
261.33
44.21
13.19
24
2.74
32.45
64.23
3.32
1.23
4.18
7.72
0.73
0.85
0.49
0.65
1.98
5.39
2.58
38.15
257.58
47.76
14.26
25
2.74
30.70
62.79
3.43
1.25
4.35
8.01
0.75
0.89
0.46
0.65
1.98
5.43
2.55
38.15
253.82
51.32
15.34
26
2.74
28.95
61.36
3.54
1.27
4.52
8.29
0.78
0.93
0.44
0.65
1.98
5.48
2.53
38.15
250.07
54.87
16.42
27
2.74
27.21
59.92
3.65
1.29
4.68
8.58
0.80
0.98
0.41
0.65
1.98
5.53
2.50
38.15
246.31
58.43
17.50
31
40.28
41.37
120.16
2.20
0.70
2.80
3.69
0.60
0.39
0.46
0.79
1.79
2.64
2.75
323.87
550.96
23.02
9.92
32
39.03
40.52
119.10
2.12
0.65
2.90
3.35
0.59
0.38
0.45
0.79
1.13
2.71
2.91
299.04
577.23
24.88
10.89
33
37.77
39.66
118.04
2.04
0.60
3.01
3.02
0.58
0.38
0.43
0.79
0.46
2.78
3.08
274.22
603.49
26.74
11.86
34
36.52
38.81
116.98
1.96
0.55
3.12
2.68
0.58
0.37
0.42
0.79
0.46
2.85
3.25
249.39
629.76
28.60
12.83
35
35.27
37.96
115.92
1.88
0.50
3.22
2.35
0.57
0.36
0.40
0.79
0.46
2.92
3.42
224.57
656.03
30.46
13.81
36
34.01
37.11
114.86
1.80
0.45
3.33
2.01
0.56
0.35
0.39
0.79
0.46
2.99
3.59
199.74
682.29
32.32
14.78
37
32.76
36.26
113.80
1.72
0.40
3.43
1.68
0.55
0.34
0.38
0.79
0.46
3.06
3.75
174.92
708.56
34.18
15.75
323
Lampiran 16. Lanjutan NO
JRTG
RJAK
RKBMT
RWIND
RPFER
UMRR
RPSMN
SSNPT
LHPHS
POPD
POPG
PPUK
SEXR
RSKB
DKAW1
DKAW2
DESE
KRIS
11
220.95
4.39
4.82
1.06
1.60
11.47
0.53
56.49
0.00
76.45
2.36
73.72
103.83
5.06
0
0
1
1
12
225.26
4.39
4.79
0.97
1.73
12.50
0.57
56.69
0.00
77.97
2.39
73.10
104.13
5.39
0
0
1
1
13
229.58
4.39
4.76
0.88
1.87
13.52
0.62
56.88
0.00
79.49
2.42
72.49
104.43
5.73
0
0
1
1
14
233.89
4.39
4.73
0.79
2.00
14.54
0.66
57.08
0.00
81.01
2.44
71.87
104.73
6.07
0
0
1
1
15
238.21
4.39
4.69
0.69
2.14
15.57
0.70
57.28
0.00
82.53
2.47
71.26
105.03
6.40
0
0
1
1
16
242.52
4.39
4.66
0.60
2.27
16.59
0.74
57.47
0.00
84.05
2.50
70.64
105.33
6.74
0
0
1
1
17
246.84
4.39
4.63
0.51
2.41
17.61
0.79
57.67
0.00
85.57
2.52
70.03
105.63
7.08
0
0
1
1
21
208.20
3.67
5.81
1.09
1.14
12.88
0.52
55.56
209.78
53.86
1.26
86.36
99.30
5.88
0
1
1
1
22
212.41
3.63
5.83
1.05
1.23
14.10
0.56
55.70
196.06
54.58
1.22
86.70
99.16
5.64
0
1
1
1
23
216.61
3.60
5.85
1.02
1.32
15.31
0.60
55.84
182.34
55.31
1.19
87.03
99.01
5.40
0
1
1
1
24
220.82
3.57
5.86
0.98
1.40
16.53
0.64
55.98
168.62
56.03
1.15
87.36
98.86
5.16
0
1
1
1
25
225.03
3.54
5.88
0.95
1.49
17.75
0.68
56.12
154.90
56.76
1.12
87.69
98.71
4.93
0
1
1
1
26
229.24
3.51
5.90
0.91
1.58
18.97
0.71
56.26
141.18
57.48
1.08
88.02
98.56
4.69
0
1
1
1
27
233.44
3.48
5.91
0.88
1.66
20.18
0.75
56.40
127.46
58.21
1.04
88.35
98.41
4.45
0
1
1
1
31
198.63
4.32
2.85
1.52
1.50
14.90
0.49
65.75
0.00
92.13
1.24
74.57
95.60
3.86
1
0
1
1
32
201.84
4.28
2.39
1.54
1.64
16.40
0.53
65.87
0.00
92.96
1.29
73.38
95.75
3.96
1
0
1
1
33
205.05
4.25
1.92
1.55
1.77
17.90
0.57
65.99
0.00
93.78
1.33
72.19
95.90
4.06
1
0
1
1
34
208.26
4.21
1.45
1.57
1.91
19.40
0.60
66.10
0.00
94.61
1.37
70.99
96.05
4.15
1
0
1
1
35
211.47
4.17
0.99
1.59
2.04
20.91
0.64
66.22
0.00
95.43
1.42
69.80
96.19
4.25
1
0
1
1
36
214.68
4.13
0.52
1.60
2.18
22.41
0.68
66.34
0.00
96.26
1.46
68.61
96.34
4.35
1
0
1
1
37
217.89
4.09
0.05
1.62
2.31
23.91
0.72
66.46
0.00
97.08
1.50
67.41
96.49
4.45
1
0
1
1
324
Lampiran 17. Program Simulasi Peramalan Variabel Endogen Tahun 2004 - 2010 Menggunakan Prosedur SIMNLIN OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; RUN; DATA RAMAL; SET REKAP; TEXP = CEXP + DEXP; YEAR = 2003; /*Simulasi Kebijakan 1. HRDE = HRDE + (CEXP*0.20); DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.05); CEXP = CEXP*0.75; 2. HRDE = HRDE + (CEXP*0.21); DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.06); CEXP = CEXP*0.73; 3. HRDE = HRDE + (CEXP*0.22); DEXP = DEXP + (CEXP*0.07); CEXP = CEXP*0.71; */
; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL OUT=RAMREL3; endogenous PAGE PIDE PWRE PTRE PRDE PHRE PSRE PSWE PEVE POTE PDEX PROC PUKC PAGC PWET PDRY PEST PDYK PGRA PTEM PWOD PSWA PHOU PCUL PUSE PLAPS PLAPL PLAJG PLAKT PLAKD PLAUJ PLAUK PPKOT PLAKR PLAKS PLAKL PLAKP PLAKM PKBOT PLFBD PLFOW POTKM SSPG SSKB SSTN SSIK SSHT ECOS ECOG PDBK DEPR TPAK UNEM LABS PFOR DEGHS DEGTN RHSTN ; instruments AGDE TRDE RDDE IDDE WRDE EVDE HRDE SRDE SWDE OTDE CEXP DEXP PAD PPAD GRES BREV TREV PVPS PVPL PVJG PVKD PVUJ PVUK PVKL PVKM PVKP PVKR PVKS PVKT PVOW PVBD PVOW POPK POPM POPS ROIBR ROIJG ROIKD ROIKT ROIUJ ROIUK ROIKL ROIKM ROIKP ROIKR ROIKS RPIKB RPIKO RPLOG UMR AGWA RAGWA JRTG RJAK RKBMT PHSTN RWIND RPFER UMRR RPSMN
SSNPT LHPHS POPD POPG PPUK SEXR RSKB DKAW1 DKAW2 DESE KRIS YEAR
; Parameters /*Blok Pengeluaran Pemerintah*/ a00 ‐60.425530 a20 ‐131.057338 a40 821.986502 a01 0.095529 a21 ‐0.244685 a41 ‐1.575864 a02 4.864368 a22 11.037219 a42 ‐41.510619 a03 ‐0.205666 a23 ‐0.277173 a43 0.198627 a04 ‐0.241888 a24 0.102072 a44 ‐0.595746 a05 ‐0.797103 a25 1.047745 a45 ‐3.189325 a06 0.046034 a26 ‐0.269145 a46 6.355222 a07 0.030910 a27 0.065859 a47 ‐0.407335 a10 ‐364.408307 a30 ‐181.765977 a50 1697.500584 a11 ‐0.564915 a31 ‐0.063966 a51 ‐3.736370 a12 21.683628 a32 5.734057 a52 81.020552 a13 ‐0.165321 a33 0.153853 a53 2.295093 a14 ‐0.004210 a34 0.319958 a54 0.292886 a15 ‐0.030544 a35 ‐1.490904 a55 4.172866 a16 ‐0.597341 a36 0.311416 a56 ‐4.240375 a17 0.183503 a37 0.091597 a57 ‐0.840480 a60 434.464938 a80 ‐25.728802 a70 115.868315 a61 ‐0.962228 a81 ‐0.104819 a71 ‐0.676223 a62 9.771065 a82 0.098350 a72 ‐4.953424 a63 0.473284 a83 ‐0.058891 a73 ‐1.190178 a64 0.436734 a84 0.228242 a74 ‐0.877417 a65 ‐0.402483 a85 0.145621 a75 0.638858 a66 0.737095 a86 ‐0.034566 a76 0.122143 a67 ‐0.214611 a87 0.013100 a77 ‐0.056120 a90 ‐384.226118 a91 ‐0.414991 a92 ‐85.935284 a93 ‐1.557892 a94 ‐0.097448 a95 1.725793 a96 ‐0.612482 a97 0.196909 /*Blok Kredit Perbankan*/ b10 8285.648422 b20 8132.294298 b30 ‐1816.105120
325
b11 ‐0.002527 b21 0.307265 b31 0.013413 x22 19.582326 x42 ‐0.127108 x62 22.416748 x23 ‐1.520122 x43 0.022808 x63 ‐0.518535 b12 ‐0.824969 b22 ‐1.585831 b32 1.820792 x24 ‐0.821346 x44 ‐0.006544 x64 2.222221 b13 14.796182 b23 ‐1.497474 b33 ‐0.006166 x25 ‐2.649074 x45 0.007651 x65 0.450535 b14 0.782143 b24 0.871890 b34 ‐0.409477 b15 ‐2.162626 b25 6.158450 b35 ‐1.365523 c70 ‐940.203095 c90 ‐48.257938 c80 ‐213.926133 b16 ‐0.643595 b26 ‐1.781929 b36 ‐0.069444 c71 0.039989 c91 0.025435 c81 ‐0.136097 b17 ‐0.264851 b27 1.792746 b37 ‐0.291766 c72 0.423694 c92 0.031059 c82 0.015229 b18 1.301128 b28 23.946025 b38 0.494600 c73 ‐0.423143 c93 0.000489 c83 ‐0.170015 b19 ‐1.112045 b29 ‐0.259869 b39 5.281370 c74 0.648023 c94 0.007693 c84 0.185331 y10 ‐6.601895 y20 ‐2.656045 y30 5.216199 c75 0.128577 c95 3.733254 c85 0.253064 y11 1.326738 y21 ‐10.234430 y31 ‐3.363740 c76 ‐1.989083 c96 ‐0.063594 c86 ‐2.415694 y12 ‐4.122505 y22 ‐4.003859 y32 0.876292 c77 0.031709 c97 ‐0.029055 c87 0.043703 c78 ‐0.170134 c98 ‐0.007268 c88 0.638363 /*Blok Penggunaan Lahan*/ c79 0.019896 c99 ‐0.016912 c89 ‐0.110493 c10 ‐266.465840 c30 1899.347562 c50 99.396849 x70 ‐0.023765 x90 0.006350 x80 ‐0.020027 c11 0.036514 c31 ‐0.994029 c51 ‐0.039415 c12 0.103661 c32 ‐0.084703 c52 ‐0.082144 x71 9.008172 x91 ‐1.799713 x81 4.213314 x72 ‐10.872705 x92 ‐1.578738 x82 ‐3.075839 c13 ‐0.021431 c33 ‐0.400705 c53 0.114236 x73 1.886171 x93 0.117338 x83 ‐0.279972 c14 0.010614 c34 1.408914 c54 0.443371 x74 0.241320 x94 0.098869 x84 ‐0.649039 c15 ‐0.058198 c35 1.743827 c55 0.025942 x75 0.474768 x95 0.025660 x85 0.111035 c16 ‐0.770785 c36 ‐11.114637 c56 ‐0.726910 c17 0.003589 c37 0.178709 c57 0.010367 /*Blok Pilihan Komoditas*/ c18 0.103436 c38 2.095297 c58 0.012823 d10 548.823264 d20 289.138557 d30 ‐46.754053 c19 ‐0.028226 c39 ‐0.449405 c59 0.000183 d11 ‐0.096457 d21 ‐0.239125 d31 ‐0.121084 x10 ‐0.008320 x30 ‐0.165521 x50 0.004537 d12 ‐0.044503 d22 ‐0.349131 d32 0.222278 x11 3.165343 x31 ‐0.554723 x51 ‐1.186946 d13 0.963815 d23 ‐0.082681 d33 ‐0.059531 x12 ‐1.824486 x32 ‐9.708050 x52 1.723855 d14 ‐0.005461 d24 ‐0.006105 d34 0.000416 x13 0.013489 x33 ‐0.318320 x53 ‐0.153208 d15 0.223006 d25 0.095473 d35 ‐0.045705 x14 0.006325 x34 ‐3.701904 x54 ‐0.045607 d16 0.014379 d26 ‐0.011278 d36 ‐0.003402 x15 0.136407 x35 ‐0.923090 x55 ‐0.053760 d17 ‐0.194659 d27 0.042152 d37 ‐0.193307 d18 0.420817 d28 ‐0.183094 d38 0.134958 c20 5233.582033 c40 ‐15.139242 c60 ‐948.287352 d19 ‐0.030655 d29 ‐0.044869 d39 ‐0.030354 c21 ‐0.451362 c41 0.002855 c61 0.258525 w10 1.702057 w20 ‐1.514658 w30 ‐1.630253 c22 ‐0.039445 c42 ‐0.008543 c62 ‐0.133496 w11 0.614840 w21 ‐0.284329 w31 ‐1.407268 c23 1.217728 c43 ‐0.000568 c63 0.432233 w12 ‐0.271877 w22 ‐0.282393 w32 ‐0.583069 c24 0.003240 c44 ‐0.008107 c64 4.945145 w13 0.095543 w23 ‐0.489145 w33 ‐0.129719 c25 1.047340 c45 ‐0.011350 c65 ‐0.253707 w14 ‐0.275832 w24 ‐0.142012 w34 0.025170 c26 0.506787 c46 0.062317 c66 ‐1.968692 c27 ‐0.049839 c47 ‐0.000678 c67 0.038715 d40 29.337433 d50 64.680089 d60 22.268643 c28 0.122066 c48 0.016339 c68 1.154352 d41 ‐0.006446 d51 0.010601 d61 ‐0.037547 c29 ‐0.296623 c49 0.005224 c69 0.147364 d42 0.033893 d52 ‐0.399935 d62 0.016359 x20 ‐0.090230 x40 0.000438 x60 0.097902 d43 ‐0.011932 d53 ‐0.019379 d63 ‐0.045676 x21 ‐26.954909 x41 ‐0.135694 x61 2.017822
326
d44 ‐0.000701 d54 ‐0.001474 d64 ‐0.002530 e60 91.581745 e70 ‐114.131322 e61 ‐0.000135 e71 0.000779 d45 ‐0.001906 d55 0.031432 d65 0.017660 e62 ‐0.001159 e72 ‐0.002067 d46 0.000182 d56 0.010112 d66 0.000495 e63 0.175620 e73 ‐0.044239 d47 ‐0.048528 d57 ‐0.160130 d67 ‐0.042466 e64 ‐1.836283 e74 0.003052 d48 0.046407 d58 0.314231 d68 0.007346 e65 0.000990 e75 ‐0.045714 d49 ‐0.001436 d59 0.004111 d69 0.004451 e66 0.025910 e76 0.003869 w40 ‐0.314816 w50 0.026766 w60 ‐0.774472 e67 ‐0.001758 e77 ‐0.073582 w41 ‐0.421526 w51 ‐0.371813 w61 ‐0.693225 e68 0.020231 e78 0.182197 w42 ‐0.047069 w52 ‐0.378525 w62 ‐0.064689 e69 ‐0.007570 e79 2.002525 w43 0.065137 w53 ‐0.022714 w63 0.106246 v60 ‐1.128515 v70 1.135543 w44 ‐0.014341 w54 ‐0.032129 w64 ‐0.010592 v61 ‐0.422761 v71 ‐0.095343 v62 ‐0.074455 v72 0.045411 d70 325.644941 e10 304.191111 e20 ‐1139.597112 v63 0.023119 v73 0.057104 d71 ‐1.187750 e11 0.351097 e21 ‐0.057495 v64 ‐0.045650 d72 0.035437 e12 ‐1.472881 e22 ‐0.267960 d73 ‐0.028525 e13 0.210027 e23 ‐0.069377 /*Blok Struktur Output*/ d74 ‐0.010268 e14 ‐0.006951 e24 0.017960 d75 0.055677 e15 0.090724 e25 ‐0.108159 f10 2.399494 f20 ‐691.645060 f30 27.063229 f11 ‐0.171676 f21 ‐0.310192 f31 0.046384 d76 ‐0.009540 e16 ‐0.029687 e26 0.040055 f12 ‐0.485141 f22 0.093979 f32 0.188278 d77 ‐0.074372 e17 0.031099 e27 0.089035 f13 0.534054 f23 ‐0.447584 f33 0.003765 d78 ‐0.173117 e18 ‐1.035271 e28 0.026027 f14 ‐1.207363 f24 ‐0.309402 f34 0.003998 d79 ‐0.036995 e19 ‐0.054602 e29 0.007207 f15 7.912402 f25 ‐2.425053 f35 ‐0.000144 w70 ‐0.586843 v10 0.297667 v20 ‐0.230215 f16 3.066643 f26 0.800713 f36 0.097089 w71 ‐0.165533 v11 9.361888 v21 2.726791 f17 ‐4.642133 f27 0.052639 f37 ‐0.004396 w72 0.199393 v12 0.671514 v22 ‐0.228119 f18 0.879852 f28 ‐0.504561 f38 ‐1.777084 w73 ‐0.003625 v13 0.074852 v23 ‐0.282501 f19 0.173324 f29 0.996912 f39 ‐0.043302 w74 ‐0.161921 v14 ‐0.151472 v24 0.570405 u10 ‐1.544418 u20 ‐0.969343 u30 0.046178 u11 ‐6.831625 u21 ‐0.302292 u31 ‐0.060128 e30 ‐68.246099 e40 ‐142.512340 e50 ‐192.322688 u12 0.861487 u22 0.360698 u32 ‐0.013152 e31 ‐0.021226 e41 0.171085 e51 ‐0.034074 u13 ‐0.286491 u14 0.015847 e32 ‐0.169068 e42 ‐2.816845 e52 ‐1.006576 e33 ‐0.004442 e43 ‐0.143980 e53 ‐0.043494 f40 265.355852 f50 ‐31.088346 e34 ‐0.000085918 e44 0.008993 e54 0.006645 f41 ‐0.250835 f51 ‐0.046968 e35 ‐0.009913 e45 0.050927 e55 ‐0.102244 e36 0.001731 e46 ‐0.020772 e56 ‐0.001341 f42 2.879570 f52 0.019959 e37 ‐0.044752 e47 ‐0.192032 e57 0.143016 f43 0.415358 f53 0.008498 e38 0.010328 e48 1.306707 e58 ‐0.022436 f44 1.332571 f54 0.000398 e39 0.016418 e49 ‐0.134177 e59 ‐0.029306 f45 ‐0.033167 f55 0.036504 v30 0.377634 v40 ‐6.622381 v50 0.553167 f46 0.101211 f56 ‐0.002065 v31 ‐0.262019 v41 ‐5.335136 v51 4.112430 f47 0.004694 f57 ‐0.322663 v32 ‐0.008589 v42 ‐1.104339 v52 0.264243 f48 ‐1.140256 f58 ‐2.796905 v33 ‐0.013601 v43 ‐0.066892 v53 ‐0.274785 f49 0.788635 f59 ‐0.041781 v34 0.034466 v44 0.077545 v54 0.097532 u40 3.327206 u50 0.085141
327
u41 0.986445 u51 0.018301 s10 6.936463 s20 ‐1.556620 s30 1.169472 s11 1.201852 s31 0.034826 u42 0.247851 u43 ‐0.125242 ; /*Blok Pengeluaran Pembangunan*/ /*Blok Ekonomi dan Tenaga Kerja*/ PAGE = a00 + a01*(CEXP/DEXP) + a02*(PAD/BREV) + a03*DKAW1 + g10 ‐701.109125 g30 3990.779392 g50 2888.888477 a04*DKAW2 + a05*DESE + a06*KRIS + a07*YEAR; g11 ‐0.825436 g31 ‐0.561574 g51 0.817483 PIDE = a10 + a11*(CEXP/DEXP) + a12*(PAD/BREV) + a13*DKAW1 + g12 0.754110 g32 ‐0.071571 g52 ‐0.803925 a14*DKAW2 + a15*DESE + a16*KRIS + a17*YEAR; g13 0.466496 g33 2.549341 g53 ‐3.025849 PWRE = a20 + a21*(CEXP/DEXP) + a22*(PAD/BREV) + a23*DKAW1 + g14 75.572231 g34 ‐1.799915 g54 ‐1.086794 a24*DKAW2 + a25*DESE + a26*KRIS + a27*YEAR; g15 1.651776 g35 0.163198 g55 ‐2.191624 g16 ‐0.018020 g36 7.259902 g56 0.223552 PEVE = a30 + a31*(CEXP/DEXP) + a32*(PAD/BREV) + a33*DKAW1 + g17 3.538682 g37 ‐1.010055 g57 ‐0.861147 a34*DKAW2 + a35*DESE + a36*KRIS + a37*YEAR; g18 4.012445 g38 2.227129 g58 ‐0.027335 PRDE = a40 + a41*(CEXP/DEXP) + a42*(PAD/BREV) + a43*DKAW1 + g19 ‐2.715968 g39 0.371807 g59 ‐11.712169 a44*DKAW2 + a45*DESE + a46*KRIS + a47*YEAR; t10 ‐6.590572 t30 ‐1.946084 t50 ‐7.144095 PTRE = a50 + a51*(CEXP/DEXP) + a52*(PAD/BREV) + a53*DKAW1 + t11 0.331933 t51 ‐1.105937 a54*DKAW2 + a55*DESE + a56*KRIS + a57*YEAR; /*PHRE = 60 + a61*(CEXP/DEXP) + a62*(PAD/BREV) + a63*DKAW1 + g40 1031.467132 t52 1.457292 a64*DKAW2 + a65*DESE + a66*KRIS + a67*YEAR;*/ g20 ‐65.984204 g41 ‐0.166496 t53 ‐1.367261 PHRE = (HRDE/TEXP)*100; g21 0.006921 g42 0.916714 g22 ‐0.005542 g43 ‐0.255877 g60 ‐619.416437 PSWE = a70 + a71*(CEXP/DEXP) + a72*(PAD/BREV) + a73*DKAW1 + g23 0.120667 g44 0.034850 g61 0.094209 a74*DKAW2 + a75*DESE + a76*KRIS + a77*YEAR; g24 0.009142 g45 0.075439 g62 0.040911 PSRE = a80 + a81*(CEXP/DEXP) + a82*(PAD/BREV) + a83*DKAW1 + g25 0.008352 g46 1.146881 g63 ‐0.177457 a84*DKAW2 + a85*DESE + a86*KRIS + a87*YEAR; POTE = a90 + a91*(CEXP/DEXP) + a92*(PAD/BREV) + a93*DKAW1 + g26 0.003939 g47 ‐0.001773 g64 0.000718 a94*DKAW2 + a95*DESE + a96*KRIS + a97*YEAR; g27 0.000291 g48 ‐1.077767 g65 0.002485 PDEX = PAGE + PIDE + PWRE + PEVE + PRDE + PTRE + PHRE + PSWE + PSRE g28 0.159953 g49 ‐3.842111 g66 ‐0.030230 + POTE; g29 0.005123 t40 1.252374 g67 0.460939 t20 ‐0.009840 t41 0.199940 g68 0.129730 t21 ‐0.047018 t42 ‐0.526066 g69 ‐0.026992 /*Blok Kredit Perbankan*/ t22 0.033506 t60 ‐1.096068 t61 ‐2.635075 PROC = b10 + b11*RSKB + b12*(ECOG/POPG) + b13*PDBK + b14*ECOS + b15*PIDE + b16*PTRE + b17*PRDE + b18*DKAW1 + b19*DKAW2 + t62 0.717439 t63 0.401576 t64 0.312600 y10*DESE + y11*KRIS + y12*YEAR; PUKC = b20 + b21*RSKB + b22*PROC + b23*(ECOG/POPG) + b24*ECOS + /*Blok Degradasi Taman Nasional*/ b25*PIDE + b26*PTRE + b27*PRDE + b28*DKAW1 + b29*DKAW2 + h10 ‐2377.947491 h20 3155.019116 h30 ‐57.907645 y20*DESE + y21*KRIS + y22*YEAR; h11 ‐0.195092 h21 0.265344 h31 ‐0.058056 PAGC = b30 + b31*RSKB + b32*PROC + b33*PUKC + b34*ECOS + b35*PAGE + h12 0.261778 h22 ‐0.044083 h32 ‐2.380103 h13 ‐0.232282 h23 0.108674 h33 ‐0.277642 b36*PTRE + b37*PRDE + b38*DKAW1 + b39*DKAW2 + y30*DESE + h14 ‐0.214745 h24 ‐0.025309 h34 0.021219 y31*KRIS + y32*YEAR; h15 0.035330 h25 ‐0.075715 h35 ‐0.155844 h16 ‐0.000828 h26 85.826135 h36 ‐0.002638 /*Blok Penggunaan Lahan*/ h17 ‐8.825250 h27 23.663096 h37 7.133402 PWET = c10 + c11*ECOG + c12*POPG + c13*POPD + c14*SSPG + c15*RAGWA + h18 ‐9.000967 h28 0.772981 h38 3.576851 c16*RPFER + c17*RSKB + c18*PAGE + c19*PTRE + x10*PAGC + x11*DKAW1 + x12*DKAW2 + x13*DESE + x14*KRIS + x15*YEAR; h19 ‐0.746465 h29 ‐6.886028 h39 ‐0.810157
328
PLAKD = d50 + d51*ROIKD + d52*PVKD + d53*PDRY + d54*RSKB + PDRY = c20 + c21*ECOG + c22*POPG + c23*POPD + c24*SSPG + c25*RAGWA + d55*RAGWA + d56*PAGC + d57*PAGE + d58*PWRE + d59*PTRE + c26*RPFER + c27*RSKB + c28*PAGE + c29*PTRE + x20*PAGC + w50*DKAW1 + w51*DKAW2 + w52*DESE + w53*KRIS + w54*YEAR; x21*DKAW1 + x22*DKAW2 + x23*DESE + x24*KRIS + x25*YEAR; PLAUJ = d60 + d61*ROIUJ + d62*PVUJ + d63*PDRY + d64*RSKB + PEST = c30 + c31*ECOG + c32*POPG + c33*POPD + c34*SSKB + c35*RAGWA + d65*RAGWA + d66*PAGC + d67*PAGE + d68*PWRE + d69*PTRE + c36*RPFER + c37*RSKB + c38*PAGE + c39*PTRE + x30*PAGC + x31*DKAW1 + x32*DKAW2 + x33*DESE + x34*KRIS + x35*YEAR; w60*DKAW1 + w61*DKAW2 + w62*DESE + w63*KRIS + w64*YEAR; PDYK = c40 + c41*ECOG + c42*POPG + c43*POPD + c44*SSIK + c45*RAGWA + PLAUK = d70 + d71*ROIUK + d72*PVUK + d73*PDRY + d74*RSKB + c46*RPFER + c47*RSKB + c48*PAGE + c49*PTRE + x40*PAGC + d75*RAGWA + d76*PAGC + d77*PAGE + d78*PWRE + d79*PTRE + x41*DKAW1 + x42*DKAW2 + x43*DESE + x44*KRIS + x45*YEAR; w70*DKAW1 + w71*DKAW2 + w72*DESE + w73*KRIS + w74*YEAR; PLAKR = e10 + e11*ROIKR + e12*PVKR + e13*PEST + e14*RSKB + PGRA = c50 + c51*ECOG + c52*POPG + c53*POPD + c54*SSTN + c55*RAGWA + c56*RPFER + c57*RSKB + c58*PAGE + c59*PTRE + x50*PAGC + e15*RAGWA + e16*PAGC + e17*PAGE + e18*PWRE + e19*PTRE + x51*DKAW1 + x52*DKAW2 + x53*DESE + x54*KRIS + x55*YEAR; v10*DKAW1 + v11*DKAW2 + v12*DESE + v13*KRIS + v14*YEAR; PWOD = c60 + c61*ECOG + c62*POPG + c63*POPD + c64*SSHT + c65*RAGWA + PLAKS = e20 + e21*ROIKS + e22*PVKS + e23*PEST + e24*RSKB + c66*RPFER + c67*RSKB + c68*PAGE + c69*PTRE + x60*PAGC + e25*RAGWA + e26*PAGC + e27*PAGE + e28*PWRE + e29*PTRE + x61*DKAW1 + x62*DKAW2 + x63*DESE + x64*KRIS + x65*YEAR; v20*DKAW1 + v21*DKAW2 + v22*DESE + v23*KRIS + v24*YEAR; PTEM = c70 + c71*ECOG + c72*POPG + c73*POPD + c74*ECOS + c75*RAGWA + PLAKL = e30 + e31*ROIKL + e32*PVKL + e33*PEST + e34*RSKB + c76*RPFER + c77*RSKB + c78*PAGE + c79*PTRE + x70*PAGC + e35*RAGWA + e36*PAGC + e37*PAGE + e38*PWRE + e39*PTRE + x71*DKAW1 + x72*DKAW2 + x73*DESE + x74*KRIS + x75*YEAR; v30*DKAW1 + v31*DKAW2 + v32*DESE + v33*KRIS + v34*YEAR; PSWA = c80 + c81*ECOG + c82*POPG + c83*POPD + c84*ECOS + c85*RAGWA + PLAKP = e40 + e41*ROIKP + e42*PVKP + e43*PEST + e44*RSKB + c86*RPFER + c87*RSKB + c88*PAGE + c89*PTRE + x80*PAGC + e45*RAGWA + e46*PAGC + e47*PAGE + e48*PWRE + e49*PTRE + x81*DKAW1 + x82*DKAW2 + x83*DESE + x84*KRIS + x85*YEAR; v40*DKAW1 + v41*DKAW2 + v42*DESE + v43*KRIS + v44*YEAR; PHOU = c90 + c91*ECOG + c92*POPG + c93*POPD + c94*JRTG + c95*RPSMN PLAKM = e50 + e51*ROIKM + e52*PVKM + e53*PEST + e54*RSKB + + c96*RPLOG + c97*UMRR + c98*RSKB + c99*PTRE + x90*PRDE + e55*RAGWA + e56*PAGC + e57*PAGE + e58*PWRE + e59*PTRE + x91*DKAW1 + x92*DKAW2 + x93*DESE + x94*KRIS + x95*YEAR; v50*DKAW1 + v51*DKAW2 + v52*DESE + v53*KRIS + v54*YEAR; PCUL = PWET + PDRY + PEST + PWOD + PDYK + PGRA; PLFBD = e60 + e61*RPIKB + e62*PVBD + e63*PWET + e64*PDYK + e65*RSKB PUSE = PCUL + PTEM + PSWA + PHOU; + e66*RAGWA + e67*PAGC + e68*PAGE + e69*PWRE + v60*DKAW1 + PFOR = 100‐ PUSE; v61*DKAW2 + v62*DESE + v63*KRIS + v64*YEAR; PLFOW = e70 + e71*RPIKO + e72*PVOW + e73*PSWA + e74*RSKB + /*Blok Pilihan Komoditas*/ e75*RAGWA + e76*PAGC + e77*PAGE + e78*PWRE + e79*DKAW1 + v70*DKAW2 + v71*DESE + v72*KRIS + v73*YEAR; PLAPS = d10 + d11*ROIBR + d12*PVPS + d13*PWET + d14*RSKB + d15*RAGWA + d16*PAGC + d17*PAGE + d18*PWRE + d19*PTRE + PPKOT = PDRY ‐ PLAPL ‐ PLAJG ‐ PLAKT ‐ PLAKD ‐ PLAUJ ‐ PLAUK; w10*DKAW1 + w11*DKAW2 + w12*DESE + w13*KRIS + w14*YEAR; PKBOT = PEST ‐ PLAKR ‐ PLAKS ‐ PLAKL ‐ PLAKP ‐ PLAKM; PLAPL = d20 + d21*ROIBR + d22*PVPL + d23*PDRY + d24*RSKB + d25*RAGWA + d26*PAGC + d27*PAGE + d28*PWRE + d29*PTRE + /*Blok Struktur Output*/ w20*DKAW1 + w21*DKAW2 + w22*DESE + w23*KRIS + w24*YEAR; SSPG = f10 + f11*SSNPT + f12*PLAPS + f13*PLAPL + f14*PLAJG + PLAJG = d30 + d31*ROIJG + d32*PVJG + d33*PDRY + d34*RSKB + f15*PLAKT + f16*PLAKD + f17*PLAUJ + f18*PLAUK + f19*PPKOT + d35*RAGWA + d36*PAGC + d37*PAGE + d38*PWRE + d39*PTRE + u10*DKAW1 + u11*DKAW2 + u12*DESE + u13*KRIS + u14*YEAR; w30*DKAW1 + w31*DKAW2 + w32*DESE + w33*KRIS + w34*YEAR; SSKB = f20 + f21*SSNPT + f22*PLAKR + f23*PLAKS + f24*PLAKP + PLAKT = d40 + d41*ROIKT + d42*PVKT + d43*PDRY + d44*RSKB + f25*PLAKL + f26*PLAKM + f27*PKBOT + f28*DKAW1 + f29*DKAW2 + d45*RAGWA + d46*PAGC + d47*PAGE + d48*PWRE + d49*PTRE + u20*DESE + u21*KRIS + u22*YEAR; w40*DKAW1 + w41*DKAW2 + w42*DESE + w43*KRIS + w44*YEAR; SSTN = f30 + f31*SSNPT + f32*PGRA + f33*POPS + f34*POPK + f35*POPM + f36*PAGE + f37*PAGC + f38*DKAW1 + f39*DKAW2 + u30*DESE + u31*KRIS + u32*YEAR;
329
SSIK = f40 + f41*SSNPT + f42*PDYK + f43*PLFOW + f44*PLFBD + LABS = g50 + g51*ECOS + g52*TPAK + g53*RWIND + g54*PAGE + g55*PIDE f45*DEGTN + f46*PAGE + f47*PAGC + f48*PWRE + f49*DKAW1 + + g56*PAGC + g57*PROC + g58*PUKC + g59*DKAW1 + t50*DKAW2 + u40*DKAW2 + u41*DESE + u42*KRIS + u43*YEAR; t51*DESE + t52*KRIS + t53*YEAR; SSHT = f50 + f51*SSNPT + f52*PWOD + f53*PFOR + f54*LHPHS + f55*PAGE UNEM = g60 + g61*UMRR + g62*(ECOG/POPG) + g63*TPAK + g64*LABS + g65*PPUK + g66*PDEX + g67*PIDE + g68*PROC + g69*PUKC + + f56*PAGC + f57*DKAW1 + f58*DKAW2 + f59*DESE + u50*KRIS + u51*YEAR; t60*DKAW1 + t61*DKAW2 + t62*DESE + t63*KRIS + t64*YEAR; ECOS = SSPG + SSKB + SSTN + SSIK + SSHT; /*Blok Degradasi Taman Nasional*/ DEGHS = h10 + h11*PFOR + h12*(ECOG/POPG) + h13*UNEM + h14*RPLOG + h15*RKBMT + h16*LHPHS + h17*DKAW1 + h18*DKAW2 + h19*DESE + s10*KRIS + s11*YEAR; RHSTN = h20 + h21*DEGHS + h22*(ECOG/POPG) + h23*RPLOG + h24*LHPHS + /*Blok Ekonomi dan Tenaga Kerja*/ h25*PEVE + h26*DKAW1 + h27*DKAW2 + h28*DESE + h29*KRIS + ECOG = g10 + g11*ECOS + g12*TPAK + g13*LABS + g14*PPAD + g15*PSRE s20*YEAR; + g16*PUKC + g17*DKAW1 + g18*DKAW2 + g19*DESE + t10*KRIS + DEGTN = h30 + h31*RHSTN + h32*PDBK + h33*UNEM + h34*RPLOG + t11*YEAR; h35*RKBMT + h36*LHPHS + h37*DKAW1 + h38*DKAW2 + PDBK = g20 + g21*(ECOG/POPG) + g22*DEPR + g23*RWIND + g24*PHRE + g25*PIDE + g26*PROC + g27*PUKC + g28*DKAW1 + g29*DKAW2 + h39*DESE + s30*KRIS + s31*YEAR; t20*DESE + t21*KRIS + t22*YEAR; DEPR = g30 + g31*PPUK + g32*POPG + g33*RJAK + g34*PSWE + g35*PHRE RANGE NO = 34 TO 37; + g36*DKAW1 + g37*DKAW2 + g38*DESE + g39*KRIS + t30*YEAR; RUN; TPAK = g40 + g41*DEPR + g42*SEXR + g43*RJAK + g44*PSWE + g45*PHRE + g46*PIDE + g47*PUKC + g48*DKAW1 + g49*DKAW2 + t40*DESE + t41*KRIS + t42*YEAR;
Lampiran 18. Hasil Simulasi Peramalan Nilai Dasar dan Kebijakan Alokasi Pengeluaran Pemerintah Daerah Kawasan Bengkulu Tahun 2007 - 2010
NO
YEAR
SKENARIO
_TYPE_
MODE
ERRORS
PAGE
PIDE
PWRE
PTRE
PRDE
PHRE
PSRE
PSWE
PEVE
POTE
PDEX
14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.185
1.372
1.189
4.490
3.007
2.165
0.291
1.922
0.491
7.406
23.519
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.184
1.325
1.167
4.252
2.990
2.116
0.287
1.901
0.482
7.485
23.189
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.182
1.282
1.146
4.032
2.980
2.072
0.283
1.882
0.474
7.564
22.898
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.179
1.240
1.126
3.827
2.977
2.031
0.280
1.867
0.466
7.646
22.639
1.183
1.305
1.157
4.150
2.989
2.096
0.285
1.893
0.478
7.525
23.061
1.078
2.006
1.463
8.684
4.776
18.015
0.409
2.681
0.563
7.872
47.547
Nilai Dasar
Rata-rata 14
2007
P3-20R_25
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
330
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.075
1.970
1.446
8.512
4.786
18.028
0.406
2.671
0.555
7.958
47.407
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.071
1.935
1.429
8.350
4.801
18.039
0.404
2.664
0.548
8.044
47.285
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.068
1.901
1.412
8.197
4.820
18.049
0.402
2.658
0.540
8.131
47.178
1.073
1.953
1.438
8.436
4.796
18.033
0.405
2.669
0.552
8.001
47.354
14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.068
2.067
1.490
9.089
4.947
18.776
0.420
2.754
0.570
7.917
49.098
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.064
2.032
1.473
8.923
4.960
18.791
0.418
2.746
0.562
8.003
48.973
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.061
1.998
1.456
8.767
4.977
18.804
0.416
2.739
0.555
8.090
48.864
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.057
1.965
1.440
8.619
4.998
18.815
0.414
2.734
0.548
8.178
48.769
1.063
2.016
1.465
8.850
4.971
18.797
0.417
2.743
0.559
8.047
48.926
14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.058
2.125
1.515
9.473
5.109
19.536
0.431
2.824
0.577
7.960
50.607
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.054
2.091
1.498
9.313
5.124
19.554
0.429
2.817
0.569
8.047
50.496
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.051
2.058
1.482
9.162
5.144
19.569
0.427
2.811
0.562
8.134
50.399
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.047
2.025
1.466
9.019
5.167
19.582
0.425
2.806
0.555
8.223
50.315
1.053
2.075
1.490
9.242
5.136
19.560
0.428
2.815
0.566
8.091
50.454
Rata-rata
P3-21R_27
Rata-rata
Rata-rata
P3-22R_29
331
Lampiran 18. Lanjutan YEAR
PROC
PUKC
PAGC
PWET
PDRY
PEST
PDYK
PGRA
PTEM
PWOD
PSWA
PHOU
PCUL
PUSE
PLAPS
PLAPL
2007
67.038
37.785
41.526
3.208
30.087
15.185
0.183
1.134
5.803
7.528
0.000
5.488
56.191
68.616
2.046
0.197
2008
67.605
37.668
42.348
3.030
33.031
15.077
0.179
1.245
5.382
7.616
0.000
5.520
58.933
71.080
2.081
0.020
2009
68.161
37.574
43.145
2.851
36.206
14.965
0.175
1.362
4.968
7.703
0.000
5.551
61.900
73.781
2.116
0.000
2010
68.699
37.504
43.906
2.672
39.402
14.852
0.172
1.478
4.555
7.790
0.000
5.583
64.888
76.504
2.150
0.000
Rataan
67.876
37.633
42.731
2.940
34.682
15.020
0.177
1.305
5.177
7.659
0.000
5.536
60.478
72.495
2.098
0.054
2007
63.222
41.722
34.306
3.186
28.865
14.865
0.207
1.049
5.477
7.975
0.815
5.463
55.098
67.902
1.928
0.137
2008
63.713
41.705
34.984
3.007
31.775
14.567
0.203
1.159
5.053
8.066
0.589
5.495
57.618
69.914
1.962
0.010
2009
64.202
41.701
35.654
2.828
34.915
14.444
0.200
1.274
4.637
8.156
0.366
5.526
60.542
72.345
1.994
0.008
2010
64.681
41.710
36.304
2.649
38.065
14.315
0.196
1.390
4.221
8.245
0.141
5.557
63.470
74.779
2.027
0.006
Rataan
63.955
41.710
35.312
2.918
33.405
14.548
0.202
1.218
4.847
8.111
0.478
5.510
59.182
71.235
1.978
0.040
2007
62.765
42.255
33.442
3.185
28.643
14.638
0.209
1.041
5.456
7.998
0.747
5.461
54.674
67.379
1.916
0.011
2008
63.247
42.249
34.104
3.007
31.678
14.514
0.205
1.150
5.032
8.089
0.521
5.492
57.493
69.688
1.949
0.010
2009
63.729
42.254
34.761
2.827
34.810
14.388
0.202
1.266
4.615
8.179
0.296
5.523
60.405
72.105
1.981
0.008
2010
64.202
42.272
35.399
2.648
37.959
14.263
0.198
1.381
4.199
8.268
0.071
5.554
63.336
74.541
2.014
0.006
Rataan
63.486
42.258
34.427
2.917
33.272
14.451
0.204
1.210
4.826
8.134
0.409
5.508
58.977
70.928
1.965
0.009
2007
62.335
42.752
32.631
3.184
28.667
14.588
0.211
1.033
5.435
8.021
0.683
5.458
54.671
67.280
1.904
0.126
2008
62.810
42.756
33.280
3.006
31.584
14.463
0.207
1.142
5.011
8.112
0.456
5.490
57.373
69.472
1.937
0.009
2009
63.286
42.770
33.924
2.826
34.709
14.338
2010
63.753
42.796
34.551
2.647
37.858
14.212
Rataan
63.046
42.769
33.597
2.916
33.205
14.400
0.204 0.200 0.206
1.257 1.373 1.201
4.594 4.178 4.805
8.202 8.291 8.157
0.230 0.004 0.343
5.520 5.552 5.505
60.279
71.880
63.208
74.315
58.882
70.736
1.969 2.001 1.953
0.008 0.006 0.037
332
Lampiran 18. Lanjutan YEAR
PLAJG
PLAKT
PLAKD
PLAUJ
PLAUK
PPKOT
PLAKR
PLAKS
PLAKL
PLAKP
PLAKM
PKBOT
PLFBD
PLFOW
POTKM
SSPG
2007
0.632
0.235
0.013
0.062
0.314
28.634
2.776
2.093
0.682
9.207
0.427
0.000
0.435
0.033
8.845
30.112
2008
0.420
0.196
0.000
0.000
0.271
32.124
2.685
2.083
0.674
9.317
0.318
0.000
0.437
0.000
9.041
30.952
2009
0.207
0.158
0.000
0.000
0.228
35.613
2.592
2.072
0.666
9.428
0.207
0.000
0.439
0.000
9.240
31.792
2010
0.000
0.120
0.000
0.000
0.184
39.098
2.498
2.059
0.659
9.539
0.097
0.000
0.441
0.000
9.440
32.631
Rataan
0.315
0.177
0.003
0.016
0.249
33.867
2.638
2.077
0.670
9.373
0.262
0.000
0.438
0.008
9.142
31.372
2007
0.660
0.260
0.084
0.140
0.223
27.361
1.846
2.039
0.760
9.604
0.422
0.194
0.396
0.096
9.231
29.860
2008
0.448
0.222
0.059
0.023
0.179
30.834
1.744
2.026
0.753
9.719
0.312
0.013
0.398
0.057
9.428
30.697
2009
0.236
0.184
0.034
0.009
0.135
34.309
1.641
2.013
0.746
9.835
0.202
0.007
0.399
0.019
9.630
31.534
2010
0.023
0.146
0.009
0.008
0.090
37.783
1.537
1.998
0.739
9.950
0.091
0.000
0.401
0.020
9.831
32.370
Rataan
0.342
0.203
0.047
0.045
0.157
32.572
1.692
2.019
0.750
9.777
0.257
0.053
0.399
0.048
9.530
31.115
2007
0.663
0.262
0.089
0.146
0.215
27.257
1.771
2.024
0.767
9.639
0.420
0.017
0.393
0.101
9.247
29.838
2008
0.450
0.224
0.064
0.030
0.171
30.729
1.667
2.011
0.760
9.755
0.310
0.011
0.395
0.063
9.445
30.674
2009
0.238
0.186
0.039
0.009
0.127
34.203
1.563
1.997
0.753
9.871
0.199
0.005
0.396
0.024
9.646
31.511
2010
0.026
0.148
0.014
0.008
0.082
37.675
1.459
1.982
0.746
9.987
0.089
0.000
0.398
0.014
9.847
32.347
Rataan
0.344
0.205
0.052
0.048
0.149
32.466
1.615
2.004
0.757
9.813
0.255
0.008
0.396
0.051
9.546
31.093
2007
0.665
0.264
0.094
0.152
0.208
27.158
1.698
2.010
0.773
9.673
0.418
0.016
0.390
0.106
9.264
29.816
2008
0.452
0.226
0.069
0.036
0.164
30.628
1.594
1.997
0.766
9.789
0.308
0.009
0.392
0.068
9.462
30.652
2009
0.240
0.188
0.044
0.009
0.119
34.101
1.489
1.983
0.760
9.906
0.197
0.003
0.393
0.029
9.663
31.488
2010
0.028
0.150
0.019
0.008
0.075
37.572
1.384
1.967
0.753
10.022
0.086
0.000
0.395
0.009
9.864
32.325
Rataan
0.346
0.207
0.057
0.051
0.142
32.365
1.541
1.989
0.763
9.848
0.252
0.007
0.393
0.053
9.563
31.070
333
Lampiran 18. Lanjutan YEAR
SSKB
SSTN
SSIK
SSHT
ECOS
ECOG
PDBK
DEPR
TPAK
UNEM
LABS
PFOR
DEGHS
DEGTN
RHSTN
2007
6.861
3.652
1.309
3.335
45.270
4.487
1.137
62.922
65.353
5.522
78.931
31.384
21.927
5.532
39.825
2008
6.661
3.663
1.263
3.313
45.852
4.433
1.125
63.299
65.506
5.653
79.365
28.920
21.748
5.563
40.004
2009
6.460
3.687
1.215
3.290
46.443
4.375
1.112
63.672
65.664
5.782
79.800
26.219
21.571
5.594
40.182
2010
6.259
3.711
1.165
3.268
47.034
4.321
1.100
64.040
65.825
5.908
80.234
23.496
21.393
5.626
40.361
Rataan
6.560
3.678
1.238
3.302
46.150
4.404
1.119
63.483
65.587
5.716
79.583
27.505
21.660
5.579
40.093
2007
6.354
3.658
0.992
3.397
44.261
5.853
1.270
64.142
67.092
4.199
77.000
32.098
21.413
5.591
39.659
2008
6.148
3.669
0.940
3.376
44.830
5.818
1.258
64.508
67.264
4.314
77.418
30.086
21.226
5.626
39.835
2009
5.941
3.693
0.887
3.354
45.409
5.778
1.247
64.871
67.437
4.428
77.840
27.655
21.041
5.661
40.012
2010
5.735
3.716
0.834
3.332
45.987
5.739
1.235
65.230
67.613
4.540
78.262
25.221
20.857
5.696
40.188
Rataan
6.045
3.684
0.913
3.365
45.122
5.797
1.253
64.688
67.352
4.370
77.630
28.765
21.134
5.644
39.924
2007
6.314
3.659
0.961
3.403
44.175
5.980
1.276
64.135
67.223
4.086
76.886
32.621
21.372
5.609
39.645
2008
6.107
3.670
0.908
3.381
44.740
5.947
1.265
64.499
67.396
4.199
77.304
30.312
21.184
5.644
39.821
2009
5.900
3.694
0.855
3.359
45.319
5.908
1.253
64.860
67.571
4.311
77.725
27.895
20.998
5.679
39.997
2010
5.694
3.718
0.801
3.338
45.898
5.871
1.241
65.218
67.748
4.422
78.145
25.459
20.813
5.714
40.174
Rataan
6.004
3.685
0.881
3.370
45.033
5.927
1.259
64.678
67.485
4.255
77.515
29.072
21.092
5.662
39.909
2007
6.275
3.660
0.931
3.408
44.090
6.101
1.283
64.134
67.348
3.977
76.775
32.720
21.331
5.625
39.631
2008
6.068
3.671
0.878
3.386
44.655
6.070
1.271
64.496
67.523
4.089
77.192
30.528
21.143
5.660
39.807
2009
5.861
3.695
0.824
3.365
45.233
6.032
1.259
64.856
67.699
4.200
77.612
28.120
20.956
5.696
39.983
2010
5.654
3.719
0.770
3.343
45.811
5.996
1.248
65.213
67.877
4.310
78.031
25.685
20.771
5.732
40.160
Rataan
5.965
3.686
0.851
3.376
44.947
6.050
1.265
64.675
67.612
4.144
77.403
29.264
21.050
5.678
39.895
334
Lampiran 19. Hasil Simulasi Peramalan Nilai Dasar dan Kebijakan Alokasi Pengeluaran Pemerintah Daerah Kawasan Jambi Tahun 2007 - 2010 NO
YEAR
SKENARIO
_TYPE_
MODE
ERRORS
PAGE
PIDE
PWRE
PTRE
PRDE
PHRE
PSRE
PSWE
PEVE
POTE
PDEX
14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.973
2.095
1.635
8.477
2.615
3.355
0.584
1.362
0.952
6.020
28.069
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.984
2.120
1.649
8.533
2.509
3.350
0.582
1.339
0.961
5.865
27.890
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.993
2.143
1.661
8.590
2.412
3.347
0.580
1.318
0.969
5.719
27.734
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
1.003
2.170
1.676
8.664
2.315
3.347
0.578
1.298
0.977
5.566
27.596
0.988
2.132
1.655
8.566
2.463
3.350
0.581
1.329
0.965
5.793
27.822
14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.890
2.584
1.847
11.713
3.980
16.481
0.675
1.948
1.008
6.379
47.506
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.900
2.614
1.863
11.803
3.889
16.451
0.674
1.931
1.017
6.228
47.368
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.909
2.642
1.878
11.890
3.804
16.425
0.673
1.915
1.025
6.086
47.246
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.918
2.673
1.894
11.990
3.718
16.402
0.672
1.900
1.034
5.936
47.136
0.904
2.628
1.871
11.849
3.848
16.440
0.674
1.924
1.021
6.157
47.314
Nilai Dasar
Rata-rata
P3-20R_25
Rata-rata 14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.883
2.631
1.867
12.023
4.110
17.202
0.684
2.004
1.013
6.414
48.831
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.892
2.661
1.883
12.116
4.021
17.173
0.682
1.987
1.022
6.263
48.702
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.901
2.690
1.898
12.206
3.938
17.149
0.681
1.972
1.031
6.121
48.587
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.910
2.722
1.915
12.309
3.852
17.127
0.681
1.958
1.040
5.971
48.484
0.897
2.676
1.891
12.164
3.980
17.163
0.682
1.980
1.027
6.192
48.651
P3-21R_27
Rata-rata 14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.875
2.676
1.887
12.320
4.235
17.923
0.692
2.058
1.018
6.447
50.130
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.884
2.707
1.903
12.416
4.147
17.896
0.691
2.042
1.027
6.296
50.008
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.893
2.736
1.918
12.509
4.065
17.872
0.690
2.027
1.036
6.155
49.901
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.902
2.768
1.935
12.614
3.981
17.852
0.689
2.013
1.045
6.005
49.803
0.889
2.722
1.911
12.465
4.107
17.886
0.691
2.035
1.032
6.226
49.961
Rata-rata
P3-22R_29
335
Lampiran 19. Lanjutan YEAR
PROC
PUKC
PAGC
PWET
PDRY
PEST
PDYK
PGRA
PTEM
PWOD
PSWA
PHOU
PCUL
PUSE
PLAPS
PLAPL
2007
63.087
39.213
39.345
1.865
21.519
36.341
0.011
0.574
7.131
5.805
2.392
2.326
65.541
77.964
1.900
0.609
2008
63.547
38.954
39.958
1.707
23.947
37.246
0.005
0.640
7.116
5.485
2.449
2.233
68.390
80.828
2.000
0.507
2009
63.982
38.713
40.532
1.549
26.395
38.135
-
0.705
7.090
5.167
2.500
2.139
71.246
83.680
2.099
0.405
2010
64.422
38.489
41.109
1.391
28.822
39.290
-
0.771
7.071
4.849
2.553
2.045
74.352
86.792
2.198
0.302
Rataan
63.760
38.842
40.236
1.628
25.171
37.753
0.004
0.673
7.102
5.327
2.474
2.186
69.882
82.316
2.049
0.456
2007
59.832
41.908
33.207
1.856
20.694
34.059
0.029
0.503
6.900
6.120
1.806
2.310
62.758
74.277
1.809
0.568
2008
60.211
41.699
33.670
1.698
23.097
34.952
0.024
0.568
6.888
5.795
1.859
2.216
65.566
77.097
1.907
0.465
2009
60.569
41.500
34.101
1.542
25.523
35.837
0.018
0.632
6.863
5.472
1.906
2.122
68.392
79.915
2.005
0.364
2010
60.935
41.311
34.539
1.384
27.929
36.955
0.012
0.696
6.847
5.149
1.955
2.028
71.429
82.955
2.103
0.262
Rataan
60.387
41.605
33.879
1.620
24.311
35.451
0.021
0.600
6.875
5.634
1.882
2.169
67.036
78.561
1.956
0.415
2007
59.459
42.274
32.505
1.856
20.610
33.871
0.031
0.496
6.885
6.136
1.754
2.308
62.504
73.947
1.800
0.564
2008
59.831
42.069
32.954
1.698
23.013
34.765
0.025
0.561
6.873
5.811
1.806
2.214
65.312
76.766
1.898
0.462
2009
60.182
41.873
33.372
1.542
25.440
35.647
0.019
0.625
6.849
5.488
1.853
2.120
68.136
79.583
1.996
0.361
2010
60.541
41.687
33.798
1.384
27.844
36.778
0.013
0.689
6.832
5.164
1.902
2.026
71.183
82.632
2.093
0.258
Rataan
60.003
41.976
33.157
1.620
24.227
35.265
0.022
0.593
6.860
5.650
1.829
2.167
66.784
78.232
1.947
0.411
2007
59.106
42.617
31.840
1.856
20.530
33.690
0.033
0.489
6.870
6.152
1.704
2.306
62.261
73.630
1.791
0.561
2008
59.471
42.416
32.276
1.698
22.932
34.583
0.027
0.554
6.858
5.827
1.755
2.212
65.067
76.446
1.888
0.458
2009
59.816
42.223
32.682
1.542
25.357
35.463
0.021
0.618
6.834
5.503
1.802
2.118
67.886
79.258
1.986
0.357
2010
60.168
42.040
33.096
1.384
27.762
36.610
0.015
0.682
6.818
5.180
1.851
2.024
70.952
82.327
2.084
0.255
Rataan
59.640
42.324
32.474
1.620
24.145
35.087
0.024
0.586
6.845
5.666
1.778
2.165
66.541
77.915
1.937
0.408
336
Lampiran 19. Lanjutan YEAR
PLAJG
PLAKT
PLAKD
PLAUJ
PLAUK
PPKOT
PLAKR
PLAKS
PLAKL
PLAKP
PLAKM
PKBOT
PLFBD
PLFOW
POTKM
SSPG
2007
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
20.910
17.933
0.754
0.350
1.059
3.525
12.720
0.153
1.086
6.390
21.419
2008
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
23.440
18.211
0.452
0.338
0.919
3.367
13.959
0.161
1.030
6.130
21.972
2009
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
25.990
18.486
0.151
0.325
0.781
3.209
15.183
0.170
0.974
5.871
22.503
2010
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
28.520
18.759
0.115
0.313
0.642
3.051
16.410
0.178
0.918
5.613
23.050
Rataan
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
24.715
18.347
0.368
0.332
0.850
3.288
14.568
0.166
1.002
6.001
22.236
2007
0.078
0.096
0.010
0.009
0.001
19.933
17.238
0.688
0.408
1.374
3.521
10.830
0.125
1.133
6.652
21.216
2008
0.062
0.093
0.010
0.008
0.001
22.458
17.513
0.381
0.396
1.236
3.362
12.064
0.134
1.077
6.387
21.766
2009
0.046
0.090
0.010
0.008
0.001
25.005
17.788
0.074
0.385
1.101
3.204
13.285
0.142
1.021
6.122
22.295
2010
0.030
0.087
0.010
0.007
0.001
27.533
18.061
0.001
0.373
0.965
3.045
14.510
0.151
0.965
5.857
22.840
Rataan
0.054
0.091
0.010
0.008
0.001
23.732
17.650
0.286
0.391
1.169
3.283
12.672
0.138
1.049
6.255
22.029
2007
0.078
0.096
0.010
0.009
0.001
19.852
17.181
0.674
0.414
1.402
3.519
10.681
0.123
1.137
6.663
21.198
2008
0.062
0.093
0.010
0.009
0.001
22.377
17.456
0.368
0.402
1.265
3.360
11.914
0.132
1.081
6.397
21.747
2009
0.046
0.090
0.010
0.008
0.001
24.924
17.731
0.060
0.390
1.130
3.202
13.134
0.140
1.025
6.132
22.277
2010
0.030
0.087
0.010
0.007
0.001
27.451
18.003
0.001
0.378
0.994
3.043
14.359
0.148
0.969
5.867
22.821
Rataan
0.054
0.091
0.010
0.008
0.001
23.651
17.593
0.276
0.396
1.198
3.281
12.522
0.136
1.053
6.265
22.011
2007
0.078
0.096
0.010
0.009
0.001
19.775
17.126
0.662
0.419
1.429
3.518
10.536
0.121
1.140
6.674
21.180
2008
0.062
0.093
0.010
0.009
0.001
22.299
17.401
0.355
0.407
1.292
3.359
11.769
0.129
1.084
6.408
21.730
2009
0.046
0.090
0.010
0.008
0.001
24.845
17.675
0.047
0.395
1.157
3.201
12.988
0.138
1.029
6.142
22.259
2010
0.030
0.087
0.010
0.007
0.001
27.372
17.948
0.002
0.383
1.022
3.042
14.213
0.146
0.973
5.877
22.803
Rataan
0.054
0.092
0.010
0.008
0.001
23.573
17.538
0.267
0.401
1.225
3.280
12.377
0.134
1.057
6.275
21.993
337
Lampiran 19. Lanjutan YEAR
SSKB
SSTN
SSIK
SSHT
ECOS
ECOG
PDBK
DEPR
TPAK
UNEM
LABS
PFOR
DEGHS
DEGTN
RHSTN
2007
16.857
3.537
3.856
0.516
46.184
3.458
1.233
52.420
58.985
3.935
78.585
22.036
11.807
8.015
58.511
2008
16.987
3.549
3.779
0.475
46.761
3.218
1.231
52.197
58.922
4.140
78.897
19.172
11.474
8.034
59.161
2009
17.115
3.561
3.703
0.434
47.316
2.994
1.229
51.970
58.859
4.341
79.207
16.320
11.136
8.054
59.809
2010
17.242
3.573
3.625
0.394
47.883
2.760
1.227
51.742
58.800
4.542
79.510
13.208
10.796
8.075
60.457
Rataan
17.050
3.555
3.741
0.455
47.036
3.108
1.230
52.082
58.892
4.240
79.050
17.684
11.303
8.045
59.485
2007
16.479
3.542
3.611
0.564
45.412
4.603
1.346
53.508
60.371
2.871
77.215
25.723
11.574
8.048
58.401
2008
16.608
3.555
3.531
0.523
45.983
4.379
1.344
53.270
60.314
3.067
77.542
22.903
11.251
8.070
59.051
2009
16.737
3.567
3.453
0.483
46.535
4.170
1.342
53.029
60.257
3.259
77.867
20.085
10.925
8.093
59.700
2010
16.864
3.580
3.372
0.443
47.099
3.952
1.340
52.789
60.203
3.451
78.189
17.045
10.597
8.115
60.350
Rataan
16.672
3.561
3.492
0.503
46.257
4.276
1.343
53.149
60.286
3.162
77.703
21.439
11.087
8.082
59.376
2007
16.449
3.543
3.587
0.568
45.345
4.709
1.352
53.525
60.478
2.779
77.134
26.053
11.556
8.059
58.392
2008
16.578
3.556
3.507
0.528
45.916
4.486
1.350
53.285
60.422
2.974
77.462
23.234
11.234
8.081
59.042
2009
16.706
3.568
3.428
0.487
46.466
4.280
1.348
53.044
60.365
3.165
77.789
20.417
10.909
8.104
59.691
2010
16.834
3.581
3.347
0.447
47.030
4.063
1.346
52.803
60.312
3.356
78.111
17.368
10.583
8.127
60.341
Rataan
16.642
3.562
3.467
0.508
46.189
4.385
1.349
53.164
60.394
3.069
77.624
21.768
11.071
8.093
59.367
2007
16.420
3.544
3.564
0.572
45.280
4.811
1.359
53.546
60.581
2.691
77.054
26.370
11.539
8.070
58.383
2008
16.549
3.557
3.484
0.532
45.852
4.590
1.357
53.306
60.526
2.884
77.383
23.554
11.218
8.092
59.033
2009
16.677
3.569
3.404
0.492
46.401
4.384
1.355
53.064
60.470
3.075
77.711
20.742
10.894
8.115
59.683
2010
16.805
3.582
3.324
0.451
46.965
4.169
1.353
52.822
60.418
3.265
78.034
17.673
10.569
8.138
60.332
Rataan
16.613
3.563
3.444
0.512
46.125
4.489
1.356
53.185
60.499
2.979
77.546
22.085
11.055
8.104
59.358
338
Lampiran 20. Hasil Simulasi Peramalan Nilai Dasar dan Kebijakan Alokasi Pengeluaran Pemerintah Daerah Kawasan Sumatera Barat Tahun 2007 - 2010 NO
YEAR
SKENARIO
_TYPE_
MODE
ERRORS
PAGE
PIDE
PWRE
PTRE
PRDE
PHRE
PSRE
PSWE
PEVE
POTE
PDEX
14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.984
1.250
0.933
6.988
3.185
2.675
0.235
0.741
0.655
5.738
23.384
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.986
1.223
0.920
6.824
3.139
2.636
0.231
0.717
0.651
5.748
23.076
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.989
1.200
0.910
6.685
3.095
2.603
0.227
0.696
0.647
5.752
22.805
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.990
1.177
0.900
6.553
3.062
2.572
0.224
0.678
0.644
5.766
22.566
0.987
1.213
0.916
6.763
3.120
2.622
0.229
0.708
0.649
5.751
22.958
14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.878
1.879
1.205
11.142
4.937
18.734
0.351
1.493
0.726
6.200
47.545
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.879
1.860
1.196
11.040
4.917
18.752
0.349
1.480
0.723
6.217
47.414
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.879
1.846
1.190
10.956
4.896
18.768
0.347
1.469
0.720
6.226
47.298
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.879
1.830
1.182
10.871
4.884
18.781
0.346
1.460
0.718
6.246
47.197
0.879
1.854
1.193
11.002
4.909
18.759
0.348
1.476
0.722
6.222
47.364
Nilai Dasar
Rata-rata
P3-20R_25
Rata-rata 14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.868
1.939
1.231
11.543
5.106
19.494
0.363
1.566
0.733
6.244
49.087
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.868
1.922
1.223
11.447
5.089
19.514
0.361
1.554
0.730
6.262
48.969
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.869
1.908
1.217
11.368
5.070
19.531
0.359
1.544
0.728
6.272
48.866
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.869
1.893
1.210
11.289
5.060
19.546
0.357
1.535
0.725
6.292
48.776
0.869
1.916
1.220
11.412
5.081
19.521
0.360
1.550
0.729
6.268
48.925
P3-21R_27
Rata-rata 14
2007
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.858
1.997
1.256
11.924
5.267
20.253
0.373
1.634
0.739
6.286
50.588
15
2008
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.858
1.980
1.248
11.833
5.251
20.276
0.371
1.624
0.736
6.305
50.484
16
2009
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.859
1.967
1.242
11.759
5.235
20.295
0.370
1.614
0.734
6.316
50.392
17
2010
PREDICT
SIMULATE
0.000
0.859
1.953
1.236
11.684
5.226
20.312
0.368
1.607
0.732
6.336
50.311
0.859
1.974
1.246
11.800
5.245
20.284
0.371
1.620
0.735
6.311
50.444
Rata-rata
P3-22R_29
339
Lampiran 20. Lanjutan YEAR
PROC
PUKC
PAGC
PWET
PDRY
PEST
PDYK
PGRA
PTEM
PWOD
PSWA
PHOU
PCUL
PUSE
PLAPS
PLAPL
2007
63.377
55.178
38.831
5.764
22.100
9.781
0.047
1.350
3.254
11.743
0.116
3.041
49.435
57.196
6.205
0.000
2008
64.296
54.806
40.272
5.577
24.581
9.907
0.042
1.389
3.140
11.466
0.060
3.035
51.573
59.197
6.269
0.000
2009
65.165
54.462
41.620
5.390
27.058
10.194
0.038
1.428
3.026
11.189
0.002
3.029
53.869
61.354
6.332
0.000
2010
66.005
54.128
42.914
5.204
29.545
10.479
0.033
1.466
2.912
10.911
0.000
3.024
56.172
63.574
6.394
0.000
Rataan
64.711
54.644
40.909
5.484
25.821
10.090
0.040
1.408
3.083
11.327
0.045
3.032
52.762
60.330
6.300
0.000
2007
59.279
58.864
31.096
5.750
20.904
7.612
0.070
1.261
2.956
12.149
0.366
3.018
46.485
54.086
6.088
0.007
2008
60.143
58.594
32.433
5.562
23.343
7.618
0.066
1.299
2.837
11.877
0.300
3.012
48.466
55.914
6.149
0.006
2009
60.966
58.340
33.693
5.374
25.797
7.602
0.061
1.337
2.719
11.603
0.233
3.006
50.436
57.731
6.211
0.005
2010
61.767
58.087
34.912
5.188
28.240
7.634
0.057
1.375
2.602
11.330
0.163
3.000
52.449
59.589
6.272
0.005
Rataan
60.539
58.471
33.034
5.469
24.571
7.616
0.064
1.318
2.779
11.740
0.266
3.009
49.459
56.830
6.180
0.006
2007
58.793
59.378
30.180
5.749
20.804
7.561
0.072
1.252
2.937
12.167
0.300
3.016
46.353
53.858
6.075
0.007
2008
59.651
59.118
31.505
5.561
23.240
7.574
0.068
1.290
2.818
11.896
0.233
3.009
48.339
55.689
6.137
0.006
2009
60.469
58.874
32.755
5.374
25.688
7.552
0.064
1.328
2.700
11.622
0.165
3.003
50.299
57.495
6.198
0.005
2010
61.266
58.629
33.966
5.188
28.129
7.581
0.060
1.365
2.582
11.349
0.094
2.997
52.307
59.345
6.259
0.005
Rataan
60.045
59.000
32.102
5.468
24.465
7.567
0.066
1.309
2.759
11.759
0.198
3.006
49.325
56.597
6.167
0.006
2007
58.336
59.857
29.319
5.749
20.706
7.521
0.074
1.244
2.919
12.186
0.237
3.013
46.236
53.649
6.063
0.007
2008
59.190
59.607
30.634
5.561
23.142
7.543
0.070
1.282
2.800
11.914
0.169
3.007
48.230
55.488
6.125
0.006
2009
60.003
59.371
31.876
5.374
25.577
7.572
0.066
1.320
2.681
11.642
0.100
3.001
50.231
57.333
6.186
0.005
2010
60.796
59.134
33.080
5.187
28.024
7.601
0.062
1.357
2.563
11.368
0.029
2.995
52.242
59.186
6.247
0.005
Rataan
59.581
59.492
31.227
5.468
24.362
7.559
0.068
1.301
2.741
11.778
0.134
3.004
49.235
56.414
6.155
0.006
340
Lampiran 20. Lanjutan YEAR
PLAJG
PLAKT
PLAKD
PLAUJ
PLAUK
PPKOT
PLAKR
PLAKS
PLAKL
PLAKP
PLAKM
PKBOT
PLFBD
PLFOW
POTKM
SSPG
2007
0.000
0.059
0.000
0.000
0.124
21.917
2.857
0.186
1.011
2.620
1.438
1.669
0.055
2.063
13.140
24.400
2008
0.000
0.034
0.000
0.000
0.118
24.429
2.965
0.011
1.000
2.633
1.352
1.946
0.060
2.029
12.898
25.071
2009
0.000
0.009
0.000
0.000
0.112
26.937
3.070
0.000
0.988
2.649
1.266
2.221
0.064
1.995
12.654
25.741
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.106
29.439
3.174
0.000
0.977
2.667
1.179
2.482
0.069
1.962
12.410
26.410
Rataan
0.000
0.026
0.000
0.000
0.115
25.681
3.017
0.049
0.994
2.642
1.309
2.080
0.062
2.012
12.776
25.406
2007
0.084
0.083
0.013
0.008
0.039
20.670
1.963
0.106
1.086
3.019
1.432
0.006
0.020
2.123
13.480
24.143
2008
0.070
0.059
0.004
0.007
0.031
23.166
2.058
0.070
1.076
3.037
1.346
0.031
0.024
2.090
13.242
24.812
2009
0.056
0.035
0.010
0.006
0.024
25.660
2.152
0.012
1.066
3.057
1.259
0.056
0.027
2.058
13.002
25.480
2010
0.042
0.011
0.010
0.006
0.017
28.150
2.246
0.001
1.056
3.079
1.173
0.079
0.031
2.025
12.761
26.146
Rataan
0.063
0.047
0.009
0.007
0.028
24.412
2.105
0.047
1.071
3.048
1.303
0.043
0.026
2.074
13.121
25.145
2007
0.084
0.085
0.018
0.008
0.032
20.570
1.891
0.088
1.093
3.054
1.430
0.005
0.017
2.128
13.491
24.120
2008
0.070
0.061
0.008
0.007
0.024
23.064
1.985
0.078
1.083
3.073
1.343
0.012
0.021
2.095
13.254
24.789
2009
0.056
0.037
0.010
0.006
0.016
25.557
2.079
0.013
1.073
3.093
1.257
0.037
0.025
2.063
13.014
25.456
2010
0.042
0.013
0.010
0.006
0.009
28.045
2.171
0.002
1.063
3.115
1.170
0.060
0.029
2.030
12.774
26.122
Rataan
0.063
0.049
0.011
0.007
0.020
24.309
2.032
0.045
1.078
3.084
1.300
0.028
0.023
2.079
13.133
25.122
2007
0.085
0.087
0.022
0.008
0.025
20.473
1.823
0.072
1.100
3.088
1.428
0.010
0.014
2.133
13.503
24.099
2008
0.070
0.063
0.012
0.007
0.017
22.966
1.916
0.056
1.089
3.107
1.341
0.034
0.018
2.100
13.266
24.767
2009
0.056
0.039
0.003
0.006
0.009
25.458
2.008
0.045
1.079
3.128
1.254
0.058
0.022
2.068
13.027
25.434
2010
0.042
0.015
0.010
0.006
0.002
27.945
2.100
0.032
1.069
3.150
1.168
0.082
0.026
2.035
12.787
26.099
Rataan
0.063
0.051
0.012
0.007
0.013
24.211
1.962
0.051
1.084
3.118
1.298
0.046
0.020
2.084
13.146
25.100
341
Lampiran 20. Lanjutan YEAR
SSKB
SSTN
SSIK
SSHT
ECOS
ECOG
PDBK
DEPR
TPAK
UNEM
LABS
PFOR
DEGHS
DEGTN
RHSTN
2007
6.714
2.755
0.039
2.745
36.575
1.893
1.329
72.494
54.595
5.768
68.954
42.804
11.152
7.829
122.779
2008
6.736
2.753
0.069
2.717
37.207
1.512
1.328
73.101
54.606
6.018
69.010
40.803
10.928
7.864
122.936
2009
6.756
2.751
0.103
2.689
37.835
1.141
1.328
73.703
54.623
6.262
69.068
38.646
10.710
7.901
123.093
2010
6.776
2.749
0.136
2.661
38.460
0.786
1.328
74.301
54.642
6.501
69.138
36.426
10.496
7.938
123.250
Rataan
6.746
2.752
0.087
2.703
37.519
1.333
1.328
73.400
54.617
6.137
69.043
39.670
10.822
7.883
123.015
2007
6.228
2.762
0.246
2.806
36.185
3.322
1.466
73.762
56.335
4.429
67.184
45.914
10.789
7.883
122.632
2008
6.243
2.760
0.211
2.779
36.805
2.955
1.466
74.358
56.363
4.664
67.218
44.086
10.550
7.922
122.785
2009
6.258
2.758
0.174
2.752
37.422
2.597
1.466
74.950
56.396
4.894
67.256
42.269
10.318
7.961
122.939
2010
6.272
2.756
0.137
2.724
38.035
2.252
1.466
75.539
56.428
5.122
67.306
40.411
10.090
8.001
123.094
Rataan
6.250
2.759
0.192
2.765
37.112
2.782
1.466
74.652
56.381
4.777
67.241
43.170
10.437
7.942
122.863
2007
6.191
2.763
0.215
2.812
36.101
3.455
1.473
73.755
56.465
4.314
67.088
46.142
10.761
7.901
122.620
2008
6.205
2.761
0.179
2.784
36.718
3.090
1.472
74.349
56.494
4.548
67.120
44.311
10.521
7.939
122.773
2009
6.219
2.759
0.141
2.757
37.332
2.732
1.472
74.941
56.528
4.777
67.156
42.505
10.288
7.979
122.927
2010
6.232
2.758
0.104
2.730
37.946
2.389
1.472
75.528
56.561
5.004
67.205
40.655
10.059
8.020
123.081
Rataan
6.212
2.760
0.160
2.771
37.024
2.917
1.472
74.643
56.512
4.661
67.142
43.403
10.407
7.960
122.850
2007
6.154
2.764
0.186
2.817
36.020
3.581
1.479
73.755
56.590
4.205
66.993
46.351
10.734
7.916
122.608
2008
6.168
2.762
0.149
2.790
36.636
3.217
1.479
74.348
56.621
4.437
67.023
44.512
10.493
7.956
122.761
2009
6.181
2.761
0.111
2.762
37.249
2.861
1.479
74.938
56.656
4.665
67.058
42.667
10.258
7.996
122.915
2010
6.195
2.759
0.073
2.735
37.861
2.518
1.478
75.525
56.690
4.891
67.105
40.814
10.029
8.037
123.068
Rataan
6.175
2.762
0.130
2.776
36.942
3.044
1.479
74.642
56.639
4.550
67.045
43.586
10.379
7.976
122.838
342
