DAFTAR PUSTAKA Adriani, Dessy. 2000. Dampak Kebijakan Pemerintah Temadap Keragaan P w dan Migrai Pada Periode Krisis Ekononi Di Indonesia Tesis Mwster Sains. Program Pascasar~ana,Institut Pertaman Bogor, Bogor. Anant& A. 1990. Modal Manusia dan Pembangunan Ekonorni. Dalarn Ananta, A. 1990. Ekonomi Sumberdaya Manusia Lembaga Demografi Fakultas Ekonomi dan Pusat Antar Universitas Bidang Ekoraomi, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta. 1995. Pattern of Development: Resources, Policy Growth. Edward Arnold Publisher, hndon.
Auty, M.R.
and EcQM~I!c
3 P S . 2000. Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia 2(K)O. Angkatan Kerja, Konsumsi dan Kemishnan Penduduk Badan Pusat Statistik Jakarta. .
.
1998. Pedoman Pencacah Survey Angkatan Kerja Nasional. Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta 1990 - 2000.
Keadaan Angkatan Kerja di Indonesia
Badan Pusat
Statistik, Jakarta. .
1990 - 2000. Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Propinsi-Propinsi di Indonesia Menurut Lapangan Usaha 1990-2000. Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta.
.
2001 . Buletin Ringkas Agustus 2 0 1 . Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta
.
1997. Buletin hngkas Desember 1997. Badan Pusat Stalistik, Jakarta.
.
1994. Buletm Ringkas Desember 1994. Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta.
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1990-2000. Statistik Upah 1990-2000. Badan Pusat Statistik Jakarta
Bappenas. 2000. Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 25 Tahun 2000 Tentang Program Pembangunan Nasional (Propmas) Tahun 2000-2004. Badan Perencanaan dan Pembangunan Nasional, Jakarta
Bellante, D. dm M. Jackson. 1990. Ekonomi Ketenagakejaan. Lembaga Penerbit Universitas Indonesiq Jakarta. Becker, G. 1976. The Economic Approach 10 Human Behavior. The University of Chicago Press, Chcago. Borjas, G. J. 1996. Labor Economics. The McGraw-Hill Company Inc., New York.
Colter, J.M. 1984. Ciri-ciri dan Pola Tenaga Keja Migran dari Daerah Perdesaan. Rural Dynamic Series No. 24. Studi Dinamika Pedesaan. Yayasan Penelitian Survey Agro Ekonomi, Bogor. Debertm, D.L. 1986. Agricultural Production Economics. MacMillan, New York. Departemen Tenaga Kerja 1999. Laporan Informasi Pasar Kerja Tahun 1999. Departemen Tenaga Kej a dan Transmigrasi RI, Jakarta
Departemen Tenaga Kerja 1 995. Situasi Tenaga Kej a dm Kesempatan Kerja di Indonesia Departemen Tenaga Kerja RI, Jakarta Dumairy . 1997. Perekonomian Indonesia Erlangga, Jakarta. Effendi, T.N. 1978. Pola Migrasi Ke Daerah Industri : Studi Kasus di Lhokseumawe. Pusat Latihan Penel itian Ilmu-Ilmu Sosial, Banda Aceh. Erwidodo. 1945. Sumber Daya M m s i q Peluang Kerja dan Kemishnan. Tiara W acana, Yogyakarta. 199 1 . Urbanisasi Temporer di Jawa Barat. Monograph Series 4. Pusat Penelitian Sosial Ekonomi Pertaniam Dalam Monograph Dinamika Keterkaitan Desa-Kota di Jawa Barat. Arus Tenaga Kerjq Barang dan Kapital. Pusat Penelitian Sosid Ekonomi Pertanian, Bogor. ,
Galbraih, J. K. dm W. Darity. 1494. Macroeconomics. Houghton Mi!%!! Company, Boston.
Cremwood, M.J. 1975. Research on International Migration in The United States: A Survey. Journal of Economic Literatur, 13 (12):377-433. Gunawm, M. dan A. Zulham. 1 W2. Migrasi Desa Kota Dalam Kaitannya Dengan Penyediaan Tenaga Keqa Pertanian dan K m p a t a n Ekonomi Desa-Kota Monograph Seria No. 4, Pusat Penelitian Sosial Ekonomi Pertaniaq Badan Penelitian clan Pengembangan Pertanian, Depart emen Perkmian, Bogor.
Gunawan, M. dan A. Zulham. 1992. Dampak Migrasi Desa Kota Terhadap Sosial Ekonomi Pedesaan (Kasus Migrasi di Perdcsaan Jawa Barat). Monograph Series No. 4, Pusat Penelitian Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Badan Peneli tian dan Pengembangan Pertanian, Departemen Pertani an, Bogor.
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Employment Challenges of the Indonesian Economic Crisis. !ntemationd Labour Organization, Jakarta 1998.
Intriligalor, M. 1978. Econometric Models, Techniques, and Aplication. Prdce-Hall Inc., New Jersey. Islm, R. 1 Indonesia : Economics Crisis, Adjustment, Employment and Poverty Issues in Development, Discussion Paper No. 23, LO,Jakarta
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1 995.
Modem Microeconomics. McMillan Pres Lid.,
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LAMPIRAN
JPW
TP-
mz ARP
TPLU
asm PRL
=EL
AULT
mm
=
WI
r
IsI MP MPR JPWl JPUP? TPAP, m w, k u a Jpatl JPrrra T P m T
JPVLl Jlwu TFmr
= mu m = m w
G E L ARLT
- --mama
M I DLlLW DARf -r/rrrr; DSMI D m -1 -/DIP; aQUrrZLN -1 D m m -1 URLTrn; -Lf
HPu JPILPl -2 -APT m r n -1 D W =/DW; m f L AIlLTD= W I EQ. 1 JWL2 TPIrZ.iD m T R A -1 DLAIlP DKRI m ' L D / D n ; m n ADFTDE a WP MPR -1 -2 T P mm ~m -I DM DAEUI mrwlKL aM, 1 TPALTD m S I W D m Wm/DW; I*IDm 1IC HP m JeaPl JPRP2 T P m m S I W D m m / U U ; -EL KOLI = W I I1 EQ-I D m M I 1 -'IRA DWESI D M DlWI =I/%; MOD= KUW = I P RIRBF JT D1& D M 1 1 1 D W R DlCICI W / m ; m m arnS = rrS I S HlRas lurI1 DKE DlrrSI DRRI lRmI r U I 11 CQ-I nrtw D m -11 DSRSI D m D W IXZIPI/DW; mmd = ra re mR8? Jr Dw D m 1 1 Pnrru -1 D m DKRI LlmPamw; baDm = 1W IS m S DMII W W DWESS D m DARI W S / R T ; m = m I1 m R B 1 P S M m -12 w Dm fDT PIC =I D W nKM m1m; m B 1 = W TI P D m PSDT OT -12 PD DAL W PK nerNXlW DlRSI D m DKRI
-
W m ;
-m;
W O D m
mU3
= Iki IS
m m
-1
=
mB. ~
K KICPS L
mmm
AIR3S
m m :
PSDT W I 2 DAL PD W PIC M M T f 2 PD DW IM PIC
VZ I1 m R B I 9-
DARI 1dWPf/WI: = W IF POREF P9DT
-m;
---ST -12
= m~ 1s ~ R S S P ~ ~ T 1 m s m ;
Al
~m 2
lYlIIL AfllT XDL m O L m = m AlJPT m P m H . AIL1 AULm Ant -EL A[mm KUP -AM P f a T = M?RL m T m T R h
fDT W
m w
pit
DWMI DLAIll DlCltI
-
mSI D m S I
-I
DM
DLlrM D m 1 L e m T / I I I ; DLlrw D m LwPT/na; m s 1 DLAIH D m LmlLm/m;
-Sf -1
-1 DWSf
DLlCIN Dm1 M / D U :
D B l I LPRLT/M;
D
m
U Dm1 D ~ Z I
Lampi ran 1. Lanjutan.
IDRNTITY
I D m 1 I P IDQmI'ZP IDmmITY ID0MIT-r IDmTfT'r
rn-IIDmIT7
IDWI'IP IDENTI= IDQTrIrn
fDmTITT ID=I'IY ID-ITY
mENT1T.r IDEM1m ID-I TY IDEHTIm I D W I N
IDENTITY TDmTITX fDamITY
rnmxrr IDm1'IP me1TY
Lampiran 1 . Lanjutan. 2. Hasil Pendugaan Parameter Model Keragaan Pasar Keqa dan Migrasi pada Periode Krisis d m Sebelum Krisis Ekonomi di Indonesia
-
inp slrs SYsLm
-a-
m:AIXLT
~
spa
t ! Es-tim
~ B r
t-iable: AULT ALnf Analysi. of Vlrimpl
-
s m oi
Error C
ws4n
ssUares ssurta 12 3.326P009E13 2.7724174S12 296 1 -2483329E12 5289516097 - 5 24B 3.4490B17LlS
DB
Source
+Q+al
a
t
72729.26576
WE
230016.99596 31.61908
C.V.
B Ww
Prob*
521.131
0.0001
R --
0.9638
M j It--
0.9620
E s W t e a
TforHO:
Stadad
Par-* Variable
DP 1 1 1 1
Rab -757 41 0.000583 -2535.816894 -24S0.264880
-0.746 0.013 -1 .I11 -1.379 7.684 -6.543 7.151
101S60 0.012108 2276.971132 ML 1776.199338 MLR 0.060715 1 0.465523 JPVLl 1 -0.2175B5 0.0332S5 JPULl TPUT 13161 941739 DbRTR& 1 -59703 22614 1 -59360 24393 mSI 24996 1 -35881 D m 1 -6!5475 27270 D m 1 -653.924638 13259 LAULT 1 0.096894 0.0254BI D~rbin-mtron 2.181 (Por of O b . ) 249 1st OrAut-tio~ -0.081 m
P
W l
-
-2.954
-2.434 -1.435 -2.401 -0.049 S .BE1
- -
> IT1
0.4565 0.9694 0.2665 0.1690 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0194 0.0-7
Variable -1
xntmru KI WL WLR
JPtlL1 JPVL2
m-
0.1527 -1 0.0171 DLlLM 0.9607 DAllf 0.0001
ibr BAS syssfProcsmxro
Least
*Stage
w:ZUlPT -iabxe: AUR Arralysis of Wiana
t-
Slm of m DP 12 7.S513794E12 612614917109 236 419075560727 1775743901.4 248 7.769b513E12
ssurru
SQUTeO
w Error C TOW
IIwk 42139.57643 ~~114301.140l6 Px-trr
C.V. Lst-us
INT-P WI
DF 1
WP
1 1
EIPR
1
;TpUpl
1 1 1 1 1
JmfP2 T P m
-AH I
D n OllRf LAaA
value 344.991 F
0 -0001
0.9461 0.9433
36.B6715
P-W Variable
a-MjR-&Q
mt-tam
-S
P-
Usthb
-50541 0-046421 -1666 .B49049
-102.651001 0.312627 -0-021422
700M 0.022768 1207-800388 1008.533461 0 -022097 0 .Oil482
561716 -5584.835916
-7453.475880
1
-S621.921977
1 1 1
-3469.554310 -11007 0.157141
DurMa-FRW or of m a . ) 1st Ordnr Au-relati-
99239
13861 14893 15193 16753 7745 -459932 4.029808 1.274 249
0.362
rforno: Par-0 -0.722 2.039
-1.300 -0.102
14.148 -2.127 5.660
-0.259 -0.500 -0 -370 -0.207 -1.121 5.272
0.4713 0.0126 0.1693 0.9190 0,0001 0.0345 0 -0001 0.7961 0.6172 0.7116 0.8361 0.1566 0.0001
variable 1 In-ce UI
m JPUPl JHJF2
-AN 1 D
=I
W
s: AIllT varirbl*: AULT Analynis of
m
T
Varial-IcfB
m of DF
6Gii3e W
12 6.0836325312 506969375795 236 378673298960 1604547894.6 218 6.463096ltl2 & o o t m E 40056.80759 R-Sqrure lkaP 1178%.51607 R-Sq C.V. 27.08163
Error C Total
-
-*.sI
Par-Varmle In-P WF HL
DF 1 1 1 1
34863 0.009701 -2537.969675
214.108618 0.109050 -0.058705 579131
1
1 1
DW&Tm -AH DWESI
1
D m D m
1
1
W
1
-40392 -90252
1
!
Staadard Errcyr 55597
Lst-ta
I
OPEZl JPFILZ TPALT
Y
liPira squar%
S -
-29095 -27334 -14-6 0.260773
m-m~trop (For mof -.) l m t Ordsr lurroEorrdatim
% of
CC
*tal
Km-ixm
Variable
DF
-tam
WF
1 1
lm
1
61622 0.011041 -523.338322
rn
1
64.656l52
JP-1
-2
1 1
TPAR
1
mm m
1
0.063493 -0.015 495 525544 -13299 -36409
WESI
1 1
1
-
m
DltItI
1
LAIlPT 1 Ourbin-#tson
(mr
0.178 -2.090 0.224 12.015 -13.762 7.637 -2.063 -1.992 -1 .a86 -1.606 -1.781 8.631
Bhan
m-
m t s r
D
0 -627
12 980256114072 81698009506 236 95986351080 406721B39.32 248 1 . O f 6149BE12 Ilaot m E 20167.94587 It63933.79518 M j R-SQ C.V. 31.54411
Par-*
IHT-P
?form:
-
tVarirbls: Aum ABPI Imalyais of Varl-
1
-36886 -41137 -3491.12463S 0.367308
of
1st Ordorm-aticn
0.9411 0.9384
T b 81r8 8 y s t m SYSLrn - P Lsast -a gut-tiop
-skqIa
DB
315.958
Par-0
0.055006 1213 .a26622 953.929133 0.009076 0.004266 75831 14109 15187 15395 17016 8078.571474 0 -030213 1.680 249 0.159
w:ARPr
Source
P Value
-S
P Vilw
Prab>F
200.645
0.0001
0.9100 0.9063
rforR0:
Ex= 38411 0.026304 574.911519 511 -550141 0.004515 0.001 996 19909 7555 .a74643
m>
191
Varirble 1
2.208 0.420 -0.910 0.126
0.0282 0.6750
WF
0,3636
E@
14.062
0.0001
3PRPI
7.761 10 .S31 -5.731
0.0001 0 -0001 0.0001
JPltP2
In-
0.8995
8229.156733
-4.428
0.0001
m m l
8381.284766 9216.942522 4132 -059858 0.032697 1.142 249 0.277
-4.401 -4.419 -0 -845 11.234
0.0001 0.0001 0.3990 0.0001
m S I
D
M
DKRI
-
Lampiran 1 . Lanjutan.
Ths SYSLIN
systgl
wt spLares
* S W
LZswtirra
w:AULm tPuirbler m r n lrrtL?D Analysis of Varianoe s l n Of m Source DF Square. sSuare Wodal 12 1.0416535K14 8.680445BS12 Error 236 875230063940 3708601965.8
FVaZw
2310 -625
2 4 6 1.0503635E11
C T o t d
Woot WE
606W.29198
C.V.
0.9917
R-M j El-SQ
372561.85111
Dep
0.9912
16.34556
Eatktm. P Va%bla DB Ssthtc INT-P 1 -569645 W I 1 0.006183 ML 1 2038.785049 MLR 1 -1224.132371 JFUU 1 0 -506816 JPtll2 1 -0.475177 T P A ~ ~ 1 399933 ='IRA 1 -12M51 W M 1 -113316 DWESI 1 -127280 DLlLM 1 -126958 DKRI 1 -7433.930075 LAUL~ 1 0 .a55441 Par--
Standard Error 95883 1906.579859 1505.579352 0 .030632 0 .027855 52765 20310 20725
--Ira(Boy mOf m.1 1st Order i t -
249 0.223
The BAS *S-
-5.794 -5.316
-0.738 9.670
spta
-
tvariable: lLUPar h U R D ARllynis of VarLanSlll Of
W Error
6.442 -6.354 -5.466
SYSLIH PLDoBmLL"0 wt s t = = EsthdAm
w:ADPrtl
sW=-
DF
-5.953 0.177 1.069 4.813 10.010 -17 -070
0.034993
22198 23882 10072 0.015105 1.553
Source
TforHO:
Par-
sSuara
F Val-
Px-tsr
12 4.0618175E13 3.384847SB12 236 1.767211B12 7488162124.3 248 4.2311167313 mt 66534.28294 R-Spuara mp m ~3r437.60643 lrdj A-SQ C.V. 36.31143 --ten
Variable
DF
IHTBRcEP
n1
1 1
rn
1
MFkI
1
JDUPl
1
3mm2
1
TPAPm
1 1
197512
56288
3.509
-211174
-6 -502
1
-207336
32177 33951 35283 37128 11316
C
Total
Par-
-5847.249992
0.003659 -0.259241
m D h n DWESI DLllM
1
-213219
1
-236077
DKRI
1
-25543 0.257882
-
1
m 15S619 0.046563 2 S a -691497
2107.950994 0.044882 0 -029624
mmin-W;lt-
0.030541 1.202
(For o f abs.) let Order An-rcdatia
0.399
IAURD
249
0.0001
0.95B3 0 .~ 5 6 2
-wlo
TforHO:
-9
E8-t-1005616 0.000758 2029.419924
452.025
M > lTl -6.462 0 -016
Lobel 0.0001 Intmrce 0.8870 KI
0.857 -2.771
0.3924 0.0060
HR
0.0001
-AH
Plr-
1.864 -10.974
-6.107 -6.043 -6.358 -1.781 8.141
MPR 0.0636 JPIJPl 0.0001 JPopl 0.0005 0.0001 ~ I
0.0001 mWSI 0.0001 DLAPt 0.0763 DABl 0.0001
U
Lampiran 1 . Lanjutan The SAS S y a b
STSLIH PrwemM Two-Stage m t splarsa P a t - t h PloQaZ: AEam
variable: ARL'LD AUTD
t-D
m y n i s of Variirn-of am..... I--&
DF
SqurrSS
wU ' --
F Virlw
PrabS
ModdL
12 7.344728@E14 6.1206073E13 2221 -533 0.0001 m 236 6.1021003E12 27661272396 C Total 2 4 6 7.1099412E14 b t m E 165985.75962 R-0.9912 Dep~1232157.29719 MfR-84 0.9906 C.V. 13.47115 Par-* t o . Par~ster 5 TforHO: Variable V;*ri&le DP E.thtS mrcrr Plf->IT1 1 P 1 1 -2658865 264919 -10.037 0.0001 In11F 1 0.529094 0.217820 2.429 0.0159 UF nt 1 -15h06 5253.660373 -2.971 0.0033 Mt BUlR 1 7913.614872 3982.934050 1.987 0.0181 JFRU 1 1 .I97583 0 -039226 30.540 0.0001 JpT(L1 aPFU.2 1 -0.716942 0.018067 -39.682 0.0001 JPRLZ TPAZTD 1 1917625 146889 13.055 0.0001 1 -201409 60019 -3.356 0.0009 -'IRA m I Y f 1 -231025 61716 -9.719 0.0002 -N DFlgSI 1 -179779 66315 -2.710 0.0072 m S K D m 1 -237579 70921 -3.350 0.0009 D L l r M DlIRI 1 -2025B 31709 -0.639 0.5295 D m 1 lARLfD 1 0.027861 0.015553 1.791 0 -0745 W-watnOn 1.673 {For Of - . I 249 1st OrdrrIur-atia 0.163
-
-
T b w s y . SYSLW -P
- -
L U r t squxen EStimratiDP
-3-
Modal:
m
tvar-1.: mm Analysis of Variance of s DF =w=-= Sqrur* 12 3.1351609El4 2.6126311E13 Error 236 9.0216281E12 38228085132 C Tatal 248 3.2252112E14 m t W 195520.09767 R-Wp C.V.
-
836287.63856
- a t e m
Vari;rblm I N r m
DF
IW
MP
1
WPB
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
JPTrP1 JPRF2
TPmmTRA
-
M
m S I
D
m
DlIItI
Pt&H
0.0001
0.9720
0.9706
23.37352
P=c,t.r
1 1
M j U-SQ
F value 683.433
Standatd
BsWke
-792402 0.290618 -558.691515 2556.695714 0.943515
-0.960974 1175429 -99340 -42260 -29029
-22634 -9520.403081 0.133303
mrbin--
(For of cBs.) l m t Ordrrhu-atioa
372287 0 -247827 5293 -732572 1946 -203381 0.045137 0.020208 127031 76139 81443 81896 98989
37562 0.025224 0.800 249 0.600
TforHO: Par-1.967
1.173 -0.106 0.517 20.765 -17.862 9.253 -0.438 -0.519 -0.271 -0.255 -0.259 5.289
Variable Prpb
> IT1
0.0503 0.2421 0.9160 0.6039 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.6619 0.6043 0.7864 0.7992 0.8001 0.0001
Iabel
Intsrcs TiW
HI? MFR -1 JPBP2
DRZSI DLAIPl DlCIlI
M: lIULI DepenQpt Parizb1e: Analysis of vuizmcm
-
aoLI
srm Of DF -8 sSuare 12 1.9001S3~13 1.583461SE12 PrrOr 236 1.3513603E12 5726102919.9 C T ~ t d 248 2.0280957313 Boot m E 75671.01790 R-Squara aep 149445.04016 M j R-SQ C.V. 50.63468 Par-tiaptem
SOmOta S
DF
Variab-
I
m
p
m~81 HTW
1 1 1 1 I
D m
1
DATIl
1 1 1
WI
I1
m mmsI D
W
DlCRI
-421884
0.002723 0.007828 -0.463279 -0.238224 2.346954 -148081 -127840 -136979 16024 0.358017
-
1 1 1
DUrbh-Uatwn (For of tbr.) 1st O r c h r Au-ati-
DF
DF
WF
1 1
IF
1
m JT
1
Dm M I 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
{Far
m
-5.404 1.169 10.923
sya-
t
1
-
-288869
-0.082802 0.002214 0.015434 -0.001050 -0.331922
0.003385 -92685 -86435
-90498 -86211 -9869.662489
0.145998
of ma.)
Ma-ti-
Estimation
of
-S
r~t-te
Durbin-ntrw
1st
-6.336 -5.313
w
-tar
D m w
-6.726
12 2.5947015E12 216225374409 236 179310413270 759789886.71 248 2.788015m2 W w t W E 27561.28641 R-Squars 69043.91566 Mj R-SQ C.V. 39.92283
WarI W T D
-91 D W
-11.125 -1.452 2.187
2405s 2534B 13475 0 -034681 1.425 249
SlPP
m m
2.659
- --
t-n VariWs: K u U Analysis of -1-
ut-tu
0,0001 In0.0001 WI O.OOB4 I1 0.0001 Al-I 0.0001 N n 4 0.1479 D m 0.0297 W I 1 0.0001 -I 0.0001 -AN 0.0001 ~ S 0.0001 D m 0.2956 Dlutf 0 -0001
6.818
2-50
hPS-
Par=-
Variable 1
- > I T 1
0.282
w:w
1 grrar C Total
0.9336 0.9302
-5.672 -6-853
0.1640W 1 .Q79010 22015
T h e slrs S Y m X N -P
SPurcn
0.0001
TforRO:
0.011643
-149275
*-?I
276.534
Ru-
0 -046865 0.001024 0.001146
-0.334983
1
LmLI
Stzudad Error 74381
Par-tar En-ts
F
T
Error
27617 0.0395ΒΆ5 0.002957 0.001005 0 -014177 0 -073950 0.369690 8234 -030369 9131.668411 9093.535767 9680.901015 5696.989491 0.095219 1.376 249 0.311
F Mu.
Prob* 0.0001
284.566
0.9354 0.9921
form:
rcarsrtar=O
-9.653 -2.091
R&
>
(PI
0.749 15.357
0.0001 0.0376 0.4548 0.0001
-0.074
0.9410
-5.029
0.0001 0.9927 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0647 0.0001
0.009
-11.256 -10.557 -9.952 -8.905 -1.731 1.145
Variable 1
Intrrw WF
IF mRS?
Dm =I1 -AH
m S I
D D m
m
I
--
-1: lCClLS D e p e n h t variable: lCtns II[JWI Analyris of Varkauca m of
DF
=-rirrirCa
W
11 7.5108755E13 6.8553414E12 237 4.3107301E12 18188734798
ErC T O W
Par-
--tea
VlrtirlrI.9 1-P
DF 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-
P D m
DATIl
D m DlmtRA
--!-Ur
DWBSI
-
D m D*ILI.
LmxS mu--(For 1st Or*
e
1348&5.61755 317256.74297 38.83744
C.V.
IS
of Obr.)
Au-atioa
Two-8virrhble:
=I
ADPf
w Error
C Total
Virriirble
If PDRBI Hm4
Di 1 1 1 1 1
DW DATI1
1 1
m
1 1
WX
-AH
-3.720 -2.514 9.117 14.092 0.280 -2.838 -4.477
-4.780 -3.785 -3.483 -1.742 7 .a90
1
W S I D M D m
1
1
1
1
P=uE8-b -283180 -0.134940 0.000179 0.003127 -0.148299 -0.018574 0.983269 -100095 -99436 -84107 -91915 S726.813521 0.989106
Durbfn-llatwn
(For of 1st 0-m-atioa
Obl.)
Variable
Prob > 121
1
0.0002 0.0116 0.0001
In-ce
0 . DO01
0.7796 0.0049 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0006 0.082P 0.0001
US IS WRES -1 DW -AN m S I
DWLW Dm1
S y s h
-0
Ert-tion
wt
-
w
Estj,tes
1-P
T for HO:
Slmn Of DF sqUarsr 12 4.0930159312 341084655062 236 321772430940 1363112501 - 0 248 4.4006545E12 Iloot 36924.82239 %Square M j 8-SQ 65201.52810 C.V. 56.69184
Pz-ttar
0.9459
Ru-
41937 42062 45507 21774 0 -034215 1.096 249 0.452
w:AIlPI
Souroe
0.0001
0.9134
0.317609 38157
ihe w
Analysis of vrrianca
e
Standard Errar 131908 0 -070651 0.006004 0.002435 1.728379
mt-
-490659 -0.179716 0.054740 0.034310 0.464334 -0.901675 -170826 -200450 -159217 -159500 -37933 0.269950
w
M j R-SQ
SY-
nopm&Qt
P d > F
376.900
248 7.9609923313 soot
WS
F Value
Stradrrd
Vahkm
w
250.161
0.0001
B
0.9271 0.9234
TforElO:
38525 0.023859 0.000500 0.0005 49 0.020204 0.079880 0 -522921 11805 12367 12463 13117 6574-205054
0 -037840 1.270 249 0.363
v*r-1.
R& > IT1
.rrcWr
-7-351 -5.652 0.957 5.700 -7.310 -0.233 1.880
-8.474 -8.040 -6.746 -7.007 0.871 10.280
0.0001 0.0001 0.33D5 0.0001 0.0001 0.8163 0.0613 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
1 Intcree Rl
11 AlllBI WW
DW -11
=SI
0.0001
D
0.3844 0.0001
DARI
W
Lampiran 1 . Lanjutan.
u: KoW
-
rn m
DepencLBnt -%&lo: Ilrwlyais o f V;uriam
Slm
sC-3X9
m Errof C T o W
Pa-tar Variable I ~
Square 190120485303 40943373775 236 5144S011820 217987165.34 248 540514091770 Boot W 14764.39858 R-Square 29164.12851 R-SQ C.V. SO.62520 12
btipates Piu:W U t h b I P 145230 1
IF
=TRh
1 1 1 1 1 1
m A k I
1
JP DKE MTIl
15391 0.021130 0.001612 0.000498 0.007593 0.038733 0.198131
-46959
4576.403186
-52151
5120.650585 S160.172031 5376.230750
1 1 1
-
Dopoadsnt vatiable:
W
BrC Totill
P=-tar
E8-b
Variable WS
DF 1 1
IS
1
HIDM11
1 1
DKE
1-P
1.395
10.317 -0.061 -1.970 0.011 -10.261 -10.181 -9.820 -6.709
-0.519 5.083
D.DOD1
0.9513 0.0500 0.9915 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.5897 0.0001
mREr
-
JT Dm -11
m DmSI
D W Dm1
The slrs -tan SYSLIN m t &yarns E m t i m a t i -
mms
WMn
-S
-0.074207 0.003368
0-013924 0 -003591
I
0.024301 0.991135 -1 -069135
0 -001546 1.077213 0.201428
1
-229316
1 -256840 DWESI 1 -217641 D m 1 -225316 DlCRf 1 -23337 0.252368 1 mYbin-IRt.on [Par of - 8 . ) 1st Ordpr mt000Trolatim
? WUO
w
407.014
0.0001
0.9497 0.4174
> IT1
W-
85752
25519
27559 27794 29701 13591 0.093152 1.111 219 0.414
--lo
T for HO:
Par-* Esmte -698692
-
1 0.0001 ~n+.rca 0.3124 W F 0.0172 IF
249
ssPara 11 3.1563939313 2.8694184812 237 1.6708503E12 7050001423.7 248 3.921248313 RoPt 83964.28660 R-Sqrurs M j R-SQ 227919.55020 C.V. 36.93668 DF
->IT1
0.197
Of
source
0.9050 0.9002
-1.012
0.040164 1.60B
--
imDs
AndLySi8 Of Mrianoe
0.0001
-9.136
3040.993660
*Stage
w:lCIJPQ
P d W
187.966
Par-
-0.021451 0.003215 0.006134 -0-000464 -0.076306 0.002110
-50616 -46810 DICRI -1668.754100 UJJm? 1 0.204161 Du~bAn-Uatron (For of m . ) 1st Ordar i t -
=Sf D W
F Vrlw
T f o r f M r
-9
-
WF
P D m
of
DF
-6.148 -1.689
1 0.0001 I n b o 0.0924 WS
0.938 W.722
0.9492
0.923
0.3510
-5.308 -8.917
-9.266 -7.891
-7.568 -1.725 7.612
IS
0.0001 -11 0.0001 Dm 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 1 0.0001 D w 0.0859 0,0001
Wodsl: -1 D e p a l b t -Me: -1 Analysis of Variimea
m 1
man
-of DF
E1)ur~e S
F value 281.911
Squar%
-8
16 2.8563314313 1.7852449E12 232 1.1691751E12 S392652156.9 248 3.0038162E13 m t 73577.96464 R-193652.27309 Mj R-54 C .V. 11.09323
Error C'lotrl
!I>0 -0001
0.9511 0.9477
Sat-t=a
Par--
-W
mi&h DP I M M P
1
S t a d a d
Error
-tiMt% -427312 -0.184927 0.001715 O.OM)037690 0.000069516 -0.179d56 3.684410
T
I1
-
me
SAS
->IT1 -5.620 -3.900 1.555 0.030 0.121 -3.351 8.308 1.748 -1.104 0.135
76031
1 0.047420 1 0.00110S PDRBI 1 0 -001271 P3DT 1 0.0110574 HTM 1 0 -053503 DATIP 1 0.413488 H) 1 1.649132 0.949548 DKE 1 -0.179360 0.431252 IDT 1 0.0004SO 0 -003323 Plt 1 0.274155 2.893356 1 -171143 25755 -AN 1 -130810 26861 DWESI 1 -136536 26330 DLlrM 1 -136628 27561 DKRI 1 19292 14918 'LmtIJ 1 0.205JSS 0.036775 Dwfbin-lR~tsOn 1.313 (Bar of Obs.) 249 l m t Ordar Autcloorralatim 0.343 UI
Vilr Wle
for HO:
P;rr-
1
0.0001 0.0001 0.1212 0.9761 0.M35
Intrrop Xl
I1 -1 P3DT 0.0009 M 0.0001 -12 0.0818 DO 0.2708 DIB 0.8924 IDT 0.9246 0.0001 0,0001 0.0001 1 0.0001 W 0.1972 0.0001
-
0.095
-6.645 -4.871 -5.186 -4.957 1.293 5.590
syatsu
ST=
BstiPiltioc
' h r P S w Wt
w
-
-1:
t-D
wariiwe: mzF lWLF
m y s i n of VarianPe
W
Error C Total r(oot
m Of w=an DF -8 16 2.4881652Ll4 1.5551032E13 232 5.1206675313 117412561620 240 2.8173657E14 383982 -50562 It-
~ldua883633.30120 C.V. 43.45496 PIL"-
El-tma
Var-1.
DF 1
Par~~~t%r
1-e WF IF PDRBF P3DT
JT DATIZ PD
1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 PIC 1 DkmA 1 m 1 EWBSI 1 DLlLW 1 DKRI 1 1 Durbin-mtron DlCE ID+
-(Far
m-te
-923869 -1.401198 0.015738 0.167174 0.007561 -0 -080254 0.988382 6.287513 -8.927909 0.023783
5.608469 -360160 -150325 -437619 -334108 -171342 0.971925
of abr.1
wn-SQ
Standard 351440
0 -193158 0.014218 0.022064 0.002569 0.137989 1.7 45283 1.6797m 2 -295784 0 -0159BB 13 -496255
116251 127010 129390 1291% 82595 0.050327 1.228 219
F Val~s 105.472
Prob>F 0 .OOOl
0.6791 0.870s
f for Ha:
m-
Variable Prob>lTI
-2.629 -2-847 0.3S6 7 -577 2.954 -0.405 0.566
0.0091 0.0048 0- 7 2 2 1 0.0001 0.0035 0.6856 0.5717
Iabel
Interee W
I1
PDWBB P m d'T
-12
1.341
0.1804
PD
-3.889 1.488
0.0001 o.isa2
W
0.416 -3.101 -3 -546 -3 -547 -2.580 -2.076 7.450
0.67B1
rn
0.0022 0.0005 0.0005 0.0105 0.0390 0.0001
mT
mSI
DLILM DKRI
1 s t Order Autoaorrdation
0.381
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan.
-
iha SAS s y m t m SYsIDl
-
Uaawt
-Stags
mIa
-1:
DependePt vlriabls:
lWLS
Analysis of variima3
source ldDdel Error C Tatal
%an of m -s 15 5.6414049E13 3.7629366E12 233 3.6801818E12 15794771494 248 6.0106796E13 k t 125677.25130 R-Squars Abj 8-SP 276074.23695
DF
~mt-tea
Var-lo 1-P WS
DP
I S
P D w
P3DT
1 1 1 1
PD
-
1 1 1
IDT
1
P11
1 1 1
DWESI
1
D
1
MTIZ DKE
-AN
m
DKRI
1
LmIS m - n
Plraawrter Estmt~
Standilrd
-367866 -0.201291 0.038613 0.004010 0.000959 5.791468 -1 -074081 1.820823 0.003100 6.449065 -139290 -117272 -117962 -127657 17526 0.184597
1154M 0.061168 0.006301
Error
DF
HxMl C Total
Root
-
C.V.
67699.74723 110839 -56225 61.07905
Bmtmtes Par=*
Variable
DF 1
WI
1
I1
1
PDRBI
1
P3DT
1
;*Ti
1
MTI2
1 1
DWBSI DIAIN
DKRI -1
v
-8
Par-
-
-0.819 4.490
16 8.5868288312 5366V6801524 232 1.0633153E12 458325577 4 . 6 240 9.6145983S12
Brrm
meZW4
1-251 0.647 1.429 -3.611 -2.851 -2.924 -3.012
111-0, 1CS
IS
HIP3DT
0.0001 0.1412 0.2120 0.5180 0.1545 0.0004 0.0047
M I 2
0.0039
1
0.0029 0.4199 0.0001
DI(ILI
DAI W IDT
PU
24s 0.329
-of
ID?
0.2397
muiablo 1
1.911
mrmle: KRPI KRPI
~ouree
FK
Pr*>lTI 0.0016 0.0012 0 .OD01 0.2151
-3.186 -9.291 6.128 1.243 1.179 7.514 -1.476
0.000813 0 -767657 0 -727524 1.454978 0.005251 4 -514189 38571 41096 40315 42379 21410 0.011116
Apalysia of V w i a u a
PD DlCB
TforIIO:
T h e SAS S y a t a STProuxhre T u c - s w wt guthati-
w:-1
-
P d 0.0001
0.9368 0.9348
V
0.005250
-
1 k m (For lsrmePr of OBs.) lot Autooarrelati-
t-
B V11ue 238.239
bS -52299
C.V.
Par=-
1
Estipltim
1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1
1
Em-ta -296781 -0.056871 0.000701 0.001376 0.001148 -0.021131 1.320571 2.67 5477 -0.102782 0.001373 0.717701 -119560 -9m5 -86725 -65121 5316.735713 0 -381847
-in--(Fox mof O b s . ) 1st Autoearrrlntim
R v Adj R-SQ
-s Etxar a857 0 -040223 0 -000938 0.001084 0.000489
0.0464% 0.361831 0.618859 0.369532 0.002827 2.463192 22614 23353 22a1
23571 12694 0.046910 1.583 249 0.208
r
~
1
117 .OPE
1
Pr&>F ~ 0.0001
0 . B89B 0.8822
T for 80: k -4.506 -1.414 0.747 1.270 2.346 -0.455
Variable
Pr0b > I T I 0.0001 0.1587 0.4556 0.2055
0.0197
0.6495
3.650 3.267
0.0003 0.0013
-0 -278 0.486 0.291
0.7812
-5.267 -4.276
-3.829 -3.611 0.421
8.317
0.6277 0.7710 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.6740 0.0001
Iabsl
Tntmrce
WI 11
HlZIBI P-7 lrnr Wf2
DD IDT PA
1 DLlLPl
Dm1
Lampiran 1 . Lanjutan.
ma
-*Stage
-: D s p c n h t m
SAS Syatep
SYSLIH -P lsast Sqruror En-ti-
rn m3PF
u m :
Analyaia of v!ar-OC
#man
Slmof
Sr;rce
DF
W
16 9.8743141S13 6.1714163B12
Error
232 1.4400697113 62071926516 249 1 . 1 2 7 1 8 0 M 1 4 Root m E 249142.38201 ElDap W 5 7 0 5 3 9 . 1 1 ~ R-SQ C.V. 43.667B7
C
Totirl
-
par-tsr
Enthtss
Var-la
DF
m-~
WF
IF PDRBr
1 1 1 1
PD DKE IDT PIE
1
Wiru A
U
DWESI
DLAM DlWI 'uP;Rfrp
---
mrar
-745486 -0 .a67166 O.OZ4fSP 0.106284 0.005385 -0.049616 0.405SS2 0.442466 -4.432740 0.019293 12.086695 -2 63610 -351409 -361804 -240948 -127646 0-337315
1
P3DT JT MTI2
m
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1
-WE
99.121
hFpbW
0.0001
0.8727
0.6639
T for BO:
-S
E8t-b
F
Far-
228046 0.922365 0.028837 0.011375 0 -001658 0.128462 1.107711 3.046730 1.471191 0.010399 8.760981
-3.258 -2.691 0.859 7.393 3.611 -0.386 0.366 0.145 -3.007 1.955
534S7
1.380 -3.190 -4.241 -4.454 -2 -866 -2.388
0.050296
6.707
75586 82868 81226
84062
V;rr*l*
->IT1
1 0.0013 In-a9 0.0076 1A 0.3915 IF 0.0001 PDREF 0.0004 PPlT 0.6997 iR 0.7148 -12 0.8847 W 0.0029 DKE 0.0646 IDP 0.1690
FK
0.0006 mm 0.0001 0.0001 m S I 0 -004s DLlLW 0.0177 DatRI 0.0001
1.363
(For 1st Or&r
of - . I
249 0.315
Au-ti-
me
w
Systcr
SYSLM
-s-
m
t SpLarcs B a a t i -
PSDdal: Dc-~t miable: m Anrlysir of Varianm gouro0
M Error
C Total
S lCRPS
5of nPirrr -m sqrUrp 15 2.4210431E19 1.6140287312 293 2.3944221312 10276489840 248 2.660864~13 m t 101373.02323 R-9qruro Adj R-SQ 195402.41767 C.V. 51 .a7910
DF
P
157.060
0.0001
m
0.9100 0.9012
E~tiaataa
-tar
-P
w i a b l m DF m P 1 US IS PDRBS
P3DT
=I2 Dm
PD IDT
PK
-TUh
DUES1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Standard
~st-te -421028 -0.089147 0.009682 0.005762 O.OOOS19 2.143668 -1.368488 1.671219 0.001790 4.133095 -153562 -149760
==
96057 0 -049181
0 -004987 0 -002643 0.000656 0.595189 0.589605 1-179944 0.004237 3.642506 32345 34130 33203 35051 17284 0.041168
1 -120962 1 -111674 1 -14297 DKUI 1 0 -321991 mn-Watran 1.999 (For of ma.) 249 1st Order All--tion 0.901 D
F Valw
m
TforHO:
w-4.383 -1.813 1.941 2.180 0.791
4.106 -2.321 1.416 0.423 1.135 -4.748 -4.389 -9.643 -4.042 -0.827 7.290
m > l r l 0.0001 0.0712 0.0534 0.0303 0 -4300 0.0001 0.0211
Variable 1
fntarce IS PDRBS
P-T -12
Dm
0.1580
0.6790 0.2577 0.0001 0.0001 0.0003 0.0001 0.1090 0.0001
IDT PK 1 DLAM Dm1
Lampiran 1 . Lanjutan. iha Syam SYSLIH PrPcemva
- -Tu0-S-
m
Em-ti-
t
madal: HR.T Depenrlsnt variable: PSILT
of m i -
Analysi.
*of
DF
w
9 577706002123 64169555791 239 19698208315 621682s.629 218 598439507954
Error C T
m
Root Dep l&an
9Q64.66964
R--
0.%71
25793.71297
R-SQ
0.9659
35.11290
C.V.
no:
T for
-0
'
P;rr
-1.277 5.562 21.615
-12.137 -1.354 -0 .a36 -Q -996
-0.199 -0.594
-
3.673
--Thtsoa
(For 1st Or&r
1.343
of abs.)
&aWWtim
244 0.326
The
w
S y u k
SYSLm
I r p S w W WDQSl:
eVPr
-
~ntimatim
t Sq-.
v i W u 1 o : PrrPr Rmr Analymim oi v a r i a n ~
t-
Source
w C T o t d
DI
Of
spUares
m
wU=-
Val-
w
1038.707
0.0001
B
9 248452038815 276O!i782091 299 6351915806.3 26!577053 -531 218 255979992952
T
for
no:
Par3.740 0.636
37.977
-10.216 -3.641 -3.327 -3.286 -3.807 -1.535 2.908
16270.90636 16829.54217
Iloot
D*
R-Sqrure
0.8316
+ R-SQ
0.8264
96.68062
C.V.
r fa
no:
Par5.331 0.725 1.166 -3.6M
-5.lBO -5.556 -4.940
PrCb > lrl 0.0001 0.4690 0 -2446 0.0003 0 .. o O Oo OaOi ~
-5.163
-0.930 1.204 1.784
W-Btwp
(For l n t 0-
249
O f (Wbs.)
0.108
Au-relatiem
-
- S m
m:
Thm slrs synSPSLnl maahIra Lllvt SatlsLtion
POPTD PUPm
vilt-11:
t-D
0.0001 0.0001 0.3531 0.2297
Analysis of V;uiane SlPP
DF
Sourca
m
Of
-8
B 119506846W2
Lrrar Totdl
wU="=
FValw
13278538552
40.470
239 78417907487 328108399.53 248 191326656546
C
Root
Dsp
16113.76271 11917.55020
C.V.
151.99233
R-8quM
0.6036
M j R-SQ
0.5889
--
T for HO:
Variable m-P AWtrP AuPm
lCUP
3.619 1.332 0.902
rn-
-1.246 -3.622
-AW
-3.503
mas1
-3.295
D
-9.363 -1.666 0.739
m
DlCIU
LWmD
P
e
0.0001
-
-: Pmm Dependent variabl0: PRLm m r D
W y n i m of Yarian-
-.
-of
DF
SCi-a W
Square
P Value
PdX?
40341805680 259 182780625787 764772074.12 248 545962565094
52.754
0.0001
9 363103251117
Error C Totirl
276J1.51275
m t
20668.91968
C.V.
- s w EQdal: PIlPm t-D variable: PRFTD
Thr S S SyaPmabm+rP LpUt =.t-tion
-
PIlPm
Analysis of Varianaa
w=U-
9 241384ia4312
w.
Hmn
%of
DP
s
0.6526
133.79757
srm
Sour-
0.6652
El-F-m: #djR-SQ
26820464924
B
Valw
32 -827
239 1912~260911817017828.08
Brrnr C Total
248 437069391949
Root HSB ~ e m*raa p C.V.
28589.52372
isem. iszs3
R-~j
0.5528
0.5360
R-M)
113.64928
T for BO: Par--0.664 1.721
4.076
-3.319 -2.875 -3.136
-2.735 -2.405 -0 - 2 6 5
5.187
m F 0.0001
R w - S
The SICS SysteP SYSLIH Pmoemvs w Wt Squares 6 a t h t i c a
-
Wodsl: PRI
DepePdPnt variable: PhlI PRI h a l y . i m of WizUles SllP
DF
Garir-w Mod01
of
%U=-
F Value
11 265543.51234 24110.31936 237 121955 .@5556 511.59432 248 394092.87550
Error C Total
Root b S E Wp srpM C.V.
22.66467 23.42570 96.83667
46.911
U -
0.6707
T for HO:
Interce
1.143 0.838 1.639
m
1.194
DBll
-2 .I52 -1.700 -1.468 -9.113 -0.993 13.017
The Slr8 symSYSLII
IUIot
-
C.V.
0.39414
2.51004 39.60670
mtlutim
Wt
R--
0.7150
M>R-SQ
0.7331
T for fm: Fir.
Variable 1
1.331
3.802
m-
0.0001
0 . -53
R-SQ
P ; l r -
-Stag!
-
L-O -0.978 7.552 1.744
1.215 4.240 1.627
0.218 2.525 0.596
1.302 1.769 6.577
Ku
m s
PDBBI
ms1
D
W
DKRI
Wodsl:
Pus
variable: PItS PUS Analygir of n r i a n c a D t-
&-zE3
DF
Modal
11
Error
237 240
C T P W
Root HEL
-m C.V.
Slm of
b&Gm Square
P VaZW
W
1579.89141 706.80809 2285.71668
143.62649
48.159
0.0001
m
1.72694 6.54618
2.98231
R--
0.6909 0.6766
R-SQ
26.38082
3.298
Variable Labs1 Intsrco
6.567
ws
T for HO: Par--
1.631
lIlI
0.609
1SPs
0.502 2.000 9.328 5.561 2.458 2.207
DBK PO=
4.731
DWI
WnTIU -AH
VmSI
D
m
7.329
m t M Dlrp C.V.
86674.43733 272690.16667 31.78495
R
0.7247 0 -7095
R-SQ
T
Variable P-
far no:
miable
Pirr-
Label
In*-
-1
-1.602 5.263
ma4
11.860
ABM
AT
-0.625 -0.079 -1.346 -0.173 -2.215
AT ATD
Am
m.1 m1 Im'
m4ATFa
Dm81
a-
Dm1
IMI
1.109 0.051 0.715 0.700 0.705 2.590
-1
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan.
-% S m
m
-:
Depen-t v a r h h l e : m'P IW Analy11s of -0s
-
of
--.rn* YIY
DF
m
b
R-Squws
a119242.77510
Mj R-SQ
1
-58748 0.29247 l
rn
1 1
0 -684748 -0.009115
-
AID
1
W
1
F-PF IUF
1
-0.004661 -0.000276 -0.016534 -375.871593
DmSI
1 1 1
4867.455856 2816.790977
DLlLIH
1
DKRI L W
1 1
M
53.418
h.obM 0.0001
0.7172 0.7332
Psthtoa F-ter DF mtbtm 1
m
F Val-
34.30279
ImmCEP tMRl? AT
sPrurr
248 1.5515905B12 t l g E 40903.59569
Dsp C.V.
Varl;lble
-
13 1.1618697E12 89371130285 235 393179173045 1673104110.6
BlxuC C T O W
Par-ter
Tho w systmm SYSLrn - P w t LmtipltLa
1
15058
6791.965113 29124 0.095280
-
Ttua SAS S y a b SYSLIN -staqs
maodsl: WS t-D muiablrr BS WS h a l y s i . of varianm SlllP Of S M Error C
Totill
DF
-8
--
Iaast
3.925662E12 294280924229 235 2.0264507El2 862319U90.1 248 5.854585B12 Iloot m E 92851.15760 8-Spare 19
aasln 238806.42570 C.V. 98.88554
Adj El-SQ
Irntiraticp
F
Value 34.127
->F 0.0001
0.6537 0.6346
T for HO:
Far-
var-1.
Iahl
-1.774 5.2B1
U -894 -0.737 -1.260 -1.518 -1.265 -3.658 1.019
0.408 0.416
0.670 5.380
0 .a95
Inter-
RIW
AT Am
Lampiran 1 . Lanjutan. T h SAS S y a m STProesdura Twc-8wo4al:
1
DcrpePdeat variable: PDUBI PDRBI Analysis of Variaaua moi S.='zrw D l ' a-r-
W
-
U a ~ Sqrures t EstWtia!
)8m
Error
9 2.7681063E16 3.0756737B15 239 4.6801226316 1.9583356E13
C Total
248 3.2773269B16
T for
m:
Farmatsr=O 1.949
10.274
10.732 3.476 - 2 .a10 -2.460 -2.340 -1.494 -5.460 0.263
Iloot mE2302812 -61196 ~ 1 4 3 8 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 C.V. 65.52513
0.7908 0.7829
R w M j U-SQ
T
for Ho:
Par-1.573
6.335 0.537 2.446 -0.182 -1.206 -0.101 -0.200 -3.126 6.859
Lampiran I . b n jutan The SS S y s b SYSLIH Least 8s-ti-
-9-
w:PDRSS -dent Analysis
variable:
A)-
A)=
variam-
Of
sm Error C 20-
of
w
F Value
m=
223.509
0.0001
%U=-
239 2.4658351E15 1.0317302E13 24B 2.3213725El6
Root -33212055.68596 M946423.16867
-
lgan
9 2.0763554E16 2.3059505315
DF
SGUrce Wob%l
C.V.
0.8936
ItM j
R-SP
0.8698
54.016M1
Par--a2'
Variable 1
T for RO:
Var-lo
Par0.901
Inter-
PRs
6.496
PRS
lCLS
7.378
APS
5.B09
mmmA
-2.869 -1.219 -2.729 -2.387
-AH
DWESI D m DKRI Lmm
-
-2.252
6.793
1.423
Durbin-mtm
(For 1st
of Obs.)
249 0.285
An-tim
w:m tvariable: b% Analysis o f k i a n a a
-
DF
w
W ErC TOtd
14
4687.01507 2625.63027 7302.40964
t bLs.
m
D4p C.V.
man
of
Source
234 248
-
nt
3.34972 14.69880 22.78910
B
334.78679 11.22064
0.6400 0.6195
R-MJ R-SQ
ParaDptar #st-Par-W
DP 1 1
WF
1
JPRsl ;TpRL2
1 1
TPLU
1
TDF.W
1
TPLR
1
TDPEdl
1 1 1 1
ma=
DWAmAM
mSI VLAZlS
1
DKRI
1 1
rn
E.tbtQ
-16.629712 0.000006117 -0.000003884 0.000001871 -0.000000463 -0.OB9674 -0,029688 0.132882 0.262618 -6.3096SO -5.839992 -6.570416 -1.861508 0.436965 0.183619
Value
29.837
T for
m:
R U - m -5.147
1.408 -0.379 2.383 -1.430 -1.059 -0.237 1.628 0.962
-5.794 -4.974 -5.167 -6.215 0.628
10.252
S
F
0.0001
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan. The
SG
S y B k
SYSLIN P W Iaaist Squarer Est-tim
P*o-S-
m
-:
Dependeat w i a b l o : IbP Analysi. of m i -
srm S
m
DF
s m
234
2831.63708
12.10101
248 t M
7790.56225 3.47865 15.21P00 22.81233
C.V. Pat-tar
mwtes
Variable IHI-P
DF 1 1 1 1 1 1
WF 1
JPRP2
PPW
TDPUJ
1
TPDR
1
rDPPR
1 1
DLliIH DKRI
IWP
Standard
Estbte
kror
-6.321718 -6.546363
1 1 1 1
R -
ProbX?
29.375
0.0001
Vi*rhbls
TforftO:
w -
Pmb>lTl
1 0.0001 IntrrcS 0.1224 UI 0.4598 W 0.0961 JPRPl 0.1815 JDRPZ 0.8934 -HI 0.1410 m m 0.5581 TPPn 0.2258 mPPR 0.0001
-4.431 1.551 -0 - 7 4 0 1.671 -1.340 -0.134
3 -605286 0.000004672 0.000010698 0.000000612 0.000000313 0 -045636 0.070570 0.038255 0.128876 1.157 470 1.245441
-1.477
0.567 1.213 -5.383 -5.076 -5.174 -6.163 0.082 10.740
1.265677
1.348472 0.733157 0 -047305
-8.309995 0.059973 D. 508040
F WW
0.6373 0.6156
M j B-SQ
PllPrPter -15.530624 0.000007244 -0.000007876 0.000001357 -0.000000420 -0.006121 -0.101246 0.022439 0.156527 -6.230323
1
mS1
=P=355.46176
W p llsrn
WI
ldaan
11
-rot C
of
-s 4976.46164
-
0.0001
0.0001 0.0001 0.9349
W
A
N
-51 DIMLf D
m
0.0001
The M systSYSLIW
Tm-seagc W
w:ma Depeadant w-1.:
wLR 1QR
Analysim of ViuianQt
sSourW W Er rca C Total
DI 14 231 248 Itoot m E m a r S a n
C.V. P
a
r
DF
AdjR-SQ
F
valw
wr&>F
6.5-
0.0001
0.2811 0.2381
39.199741
-0.000004983 0.000022729 0.000008580 -0.000005245
1
."-*t
mTRA
1 1 1 1 1
-M
1
DWESI D w DKUX
1 1
1 1
0.166684
0.200764 -0.081329 -0.008439 -3.067316 -3.203702 -3.J26045 -4.552997 -0.501183 0.296487
TforBO:
-S
mt-te
1
JPULZ
TD PIIl
209.33196 32.03191
El-
5 .a967
35.08434 16.13163
1
1 1
T O W TPLR
ssrut%
2999.64744 7495.46776 10371.22892
e Ssthtes
JPULl r-rd
Of
-8
Parator Variabh I m p W I WF
Esthntim
t
6 .SO7244 0.000007341 0.000017431 0.000004859 0.000002574 0.111011 0.267520 0.13'1801 0.455752 1.757143 1.908012 1.893602 1.967484 1.187490 0.061789
Ducbip-VltMn
1. SOB
(POT ~ . ~ of l as.) t 1st 0An~relation
219 0 -001
Variable 1 0 -0001 Interco 0.4980 ItI 0.1936 flF 0.0663 0.6127 JPa2 0.1895 'IPW 0.2320 ID0.5412 TPLR 0.8463 TDPIS 0.0822 m T R A 0.0445 -AM 0.0698 -Sf 0.0215 D M 0.6715 DA6LI 0.0001
->IT1
gtror
6.024 -0.679 1.301 1.814 -2 -038
1.316 1.198 -0.612 -0.194 -1.746 -1.679 -1 .a62 -2.314 -0.425 4.798
Lampiran I . Lanjutan.
me sns sysSYSLM - P
-
W s t a g p I&a8t saodal:
m MPR
Dependant v x i a b l e : Analyeis of V u i a n O e
---
DF
w
11
234 248
ErrC
W
t m E
m
Sm Of =W=5992.36881 3049 .a6077 9038.75502 3.61021
DspWun
35.61847
C.V. Es-tslr
10.13577
Farm-
Variabl*
DY
INm!SCBP
1 1 1 1
-ter WI WF
JEvP1 JDUP2
1 1
TPPU ~ P P ~ J
TPPR 'PDPRI m T R A
maNY!m4 DmSI DWN DKRI YAwU
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Sqxarea Eat-tioa
m
428.02613 13 -03-* MjR-Sq
1.601 -0.438 1.168
0.000001937
1.325919
1.401906 0.759280 0.047059 2.043 249 -0.022
-2.622 -3 - 0 7 2
-1.016 14.188
-s-
WDdLl Error
C Total
Yarkbh
DF
Par-&
a m C L S ~
DIimS1
D
m
DARX
L=mZ
mSI
0.0024 DLlrIN 0.2968 D m 1 0 .OOOl
syst6m
w
Of
DF w w 10 816358902574 816358W257 218 41858582967 175676399.02 248 858218759715 -5 B E 13261 -83996 R-Dap lsPvl 30327 -03614 Mj R-SQ C.Y. 43.72943 gst*tes
WI PEHD
0.0099
-rn
Par1-P
0.1293 ~ F P R 0.0115 Mm 0.0163 -AN
w a r m e : AWlZ AlRlL Of
8-
Souroa
0.9837
L s U t Sq~arenE s t d = a t i o a
mwm
tAnalymis
> IT1
Iabol 0.0001 Intar0.6620 WI 0.1495 UF 0.2375 3PUP1 0.1044 -2 0.2OS1 TPPU 0.7549 m ~ ~
'
-
w
Tha SYSLrn
Wodal:
1.184 -1.628 1.271 0.313 -0.020 -0.792 -2 -139 -2.119
0.000001003 0.047347 0.073139 0.059410 0.194655 1.189990 1.262476
-1.306094
w i ~ ~ b l e P
0.000004053 0.000011075
-3.437208
DWbin-mtaOn (For of a a . ) 1st or&r Autooorrmlatia
Far-
1.985278
0.667679
0.0001
T ~ O I C no:
lsrrcrr
-0.793980
Pr&w
92.840 0.6627 0.6425
U--
-S
-tirate 22.959557 -0.000002124 0.000016258 0.000002295 -0.000001633 0.060164 0.022a7 -0.000604 -0.1066la -2.901940 -3.102229
F Valm
Eat-14304 0.000759 -150.070166 0.684663
1 1 1 1 1 0.663270 1 -5071.080991 1 -7210.139621 1 -7067 -047232 1 -1323.024191 1 -2968.500025 1 0.094286
-S
7
F
Vdus
464 .I66
0.007985
195.941799 0.051546 D .077263
3529.959262 3947.948311 3878.345147 9959.094697 2207.652076 0.024474
0.0001
0.S12 0.9192
for nO:
Wuiabl~ - > I T ]
P;rr-
10929
PrabW
1.310 0.096 -0.766 13.282 6.582 -1.437 -1.834 -1 .a20 -0.334 -1.345 3.852
0.1916 0.9232 0.4445 0.0001 0.0001 0.1521 0.0679 0.0701
-1 Interce KI
a m c=~sm -AH
-91
0.7m5 D I A I N 0.1800 D m 1 0.0002
l
-
mdell: Mam Depa-t variable: AtllTP AROP Analysia of vari2moe
mrirce
m of
a==-
w==
Pvalw
Fr&=
10 7.5209346E12 752093457691 238 195641546327 822023303-90 216 7.7160199X12
914.930
0.0001
m
w Errcrr
C T O W
IQot M Dep W s m
C.V.
28670.94B7B 53161.22892 53.62942
0.9748 0.9736
R-Mj R-SQ
T for
f10:
Ru-
-1.112 0.669 -0.021 18.545 13.018 -1.20s -0.784 -0 .955
-2.253 -0.065 0.126
=
-
,-: Depenapnt ~ r r - l a :
=M m L
Analysis Of Varianm -of
DF
MDdcl Error C
hk4n
mP==
s -
10 461810398845 16181033885 239 14462232026 60'165680 -783 248 476275159786
To-
Root M
7795.23449
Dop
22759.f0602
C.V.
34.25046
R-M j U-sg
standard
F ViLm 759.995
0.3698 0.9684
T for no: Pi*r-
6467 -817803 0.010562
3.112 1.784
113.561385
-1.783 5.280
0.090342 0 -059739 2042.651289 2325 -949680
2317 .PO9352 2367 -295345 1476.272170
0.0189%
Prob>F 0.0001
20.613
-2.271 -3.688 -9.948 -2.730 -0.133 4.192
miable Label
InWF
M:w =-la:
t-D
AllRP
linalyazn o f W u i a n o e Sam
DF
SourCe
M
m
of
m
5 -
F V a l ~ 570.301
1 0 356393099379 95639309938 238 14873037376 62491753.679 248 37 1301723011
Error C Total
m
t W
C.V.
7905.17259 21021.32932 32.90897
P
e
0.0001
0.9599
R-squilrP M j R-SQ
0.9583
T for Iaw-0
HO:
1.479 1.641 -2.074 1.210 19.909 4.565 -2.282 -2.597 -0.936 -0.281 4.075
DUTbFn-WataOn (For of -.)
1st
OrdarAptoowralati~
0.173 249 0.594
me
SAS system
S Y S L M -P
u s m t sqrursa L ~ t i a a t i ~ p
-5-
-
M:wnn tv;rriable: Dmz OaDt l m a l y m i a of -m Slrm
DF
S ~ ~ r o s
of
=W=-
F
Value 158.060
-0
10 109171450481 10S17445048 238 16439032321 69071564 -375 2 4 8 125834509968
woQl
Lrrrrr C T o m
mt t%E C.V.
8310.93042 12930.21285
R -
0 . a691 0.8636
Mj R-SQ
64.27528
T for HO: WU-0 -3.014 -0.236 18.479 0.700 -0.977 - 2 .a32 -3.321 -2.635 -3.493 -0.883
1.471
m > F 0.0001
The sx3 S y s b %Stage
-t DPp
a
C.V.
SYSLIH t s u t Squaras E m t i M t i o n
69782 -33575
R
w
0.1639
23461.24900
kdj R-SQ
0.1324
-
297.39655
T far
no:
Variable Lirbel
P u -
fratarea
-3.240 -0.708
WI
m'l'
1.676
0.975 -2.002 -3.407 -3.472
-
DUrbin-m+son (For of
1st Or*
Wodal:
-
-3.169 -3.335
-0.901
cBs
2.256 249
.)
lultocorrolatfca -0.128
=
Dependsat variable: QURL IMUL M y s i s o f Varianoe m of
DF
SOU~EB
-
sSpare
26770666614 11222548632 173203985.85
10 267706666145
mrm?
C
w'==-
FValw 154.561
ProbM
0.0001
238 24B 309608611234
W
E l a o t m a9p C.V.
131b0.69B53
223W.10040
R-Squue M j It-SQ
0.8666
0.8610
58.77910
par-tar
T for HO: 1.083 -0.853
mT8RCKP
mv
PRL
17.999 0.860
PGM)
IF DZaATm
-2.357 -2.044 -0.SOB -1.314 -0.322 -0.551 4.464
WSgsz D
vZuiabl0
w -
Variable
m
D m lllFlIlL
Durbln-mtrp~
1.442
(For Of *..I 1st O r d e r AuwraLatian
249 0.276
Intarce
m
PEtL
-
blodel: M61P Dependent variable: DWRP DWtW m y s i s Of varianaa
S l n of
DF
SGZoO
rn
aeap
-9
10 250360260630 25036026065 238 68717105762 286'728595.64 2 4 8 321636706468
Error C T O W
Itoot m L
16992.01564
R--
Dcp arPan
24973.20080 68.04100
Mj R-SQ
C.V.
ru-w
F
V;rlW
P d > F
86.711
0.0001
0.7046 0.7756
m--
Standard LLT(lr 12930
Variable
-1
0.023806 0.037389
WF
PRP PEW
152.618786
IF m T U
-m DUES1 DLAM DKRI
m
-
-in-matron (For
o f m.1
1 s t Order atooarralatim
0.002049 4113.640643 4702.599206 4626.464157 4888 -650042 9243.788584 0.040420 1.499 249 0.246
r for EO: Par-3.432 -0.102 15.676 0.142 -2.139 -1.128 -1.512 -3.682 -2 - 4 4 7 -0.371 6.657
Lampiran 2. Program Komputer dm Hasil Validasi Model Keragaan Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi pada Periode Krisis dan Sebelum Krisis Ekonomi di Indonesia. I . Program Komputer SASETS Versi 6.12 Prosedur SIMNLIN Dengan Metode Newton
-
OPTfWS PS=500 LS-240 HODATB DATA GA8UHQ;
m.sUPRf;
INYIP ALT
= IF; = AWT
APT
=AUPT+ARPT;
AT AUT A m
= ALT + APT ;
AU
A
JPL JW JP ELI
;
3
+
ARLT ;
+ AUPT ; AUL!FD + A m
ALTD
AlTLT
;
+
=Jmrr.+JPRL; =JmTL+JPUP;
= ALTD +
AETD ;
= ARLT
ARPT
JPP JPR
= m + J P R ;
= KWLI
+
XRLI ;
KPI
=KULF+KRLF;
KPP
KS mP
= KULS + KRLS ; = XLI + BPI ; =KGS+KPs; =KUPI+KUPF+KUPS;
KPS KF KaL
KRP
=aRPI+aRPF+mPS;
KR
KU PUT
=m+m~;
a
= W L T + PUPT ;
PRT
PVTD
=PULTD+PlJPTD; =PUT+PRT;
PRTD
KLF KLS
a1
PT PUL PRI.
= mJLT
= PRLT
+ +
=PT+PTD;
W
=wI+m+ws;
PR
= P R I + P R F + m ; = PDRBI + PDRBF + s = M L + M P ; = ms + lmT ;
ms MT
PTD PUP
PULTD; FRLTD;
P WRB
nIJ
PRP
;
MKT
= m + A m L ; =AwI.+AOlP;
Am
AW
D m DW
= D w u L + m ; = m + D u R ;
DWR
AWL
;
=AUPTD+ARPTD;
ART ARTD AR
=AVL+AUP; = AT ATD ;
= AULTD + ARLTD
APTD ATD
-
+
ARLTD
= ARL +
+
;
ARPTD ; ARP :
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan. LaRPB LWLT
= = = =
LAD(KRPF1 ; LADu?wLT) ;
LUS
LIID(PULTD) ; LAD(PRGT1 ; LAD (PRLTD) ; =IAD(WI) ; = IAD(US) ;
LPRI
=LIIII(PRI)
LPRS LPDRBI
LPULTD LPRLT LPRL'LI]
LnI
-
;
LML
= LADIPRSI ; = LADtPDRBI) ; = LAD(PDRBS) ; = LAI3 (&a);
UQS
=
lldPR IM!
= LRDIrn) ;
LWRBS
LARPL
UumL mum LDWRt
-
LAD(MDS)
;
LAD(M'r) ; L1CD(m) ; = LAD(-) ; = LAD ( D m ) ; = LADImRL) ;
Q
RUN; TITLE 'VALIDAS1 m X L P KRISIS D m SEBBLUM KRISIS DRM: 8 N -S
W -A
DAM MI-I
PADA -ODE
DI IHDOMESIA';
DATA=GABUNG STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL OUTrHASIL;
AULT
AUPT APT
ALTD -1 XLI
KVPF BPI
K m
KUP
mm
ARLT
ARPT
=TD
APTD KEPS KLF
AT KRLI
ATD KRLF
KRL PUmD PRLT
KPF KLS KPS KI K R P K U KR K PRPT P R L T D P R P T D m
P R m
m
PTI3
P
PRP
FRS
PR
PDREII m3-F
baR
MFR
MDS
MKT
m
D U a
DonrP
m z l r r p A w
AUPTD ARLTD A PlITLI KmS aRLS -1 RRPF
11
m
WS
PDRBS PDRB A m A m DWRL DWW
m POLT PRT
w
ALT
m s KRPS IC8
mPr PUTD PRI.
MI, L6P ATlRLAPlRP Dww
D m
m; INS-S
JmfLl JPUL2 JPOPl JPUP2 JPUL JPUP JPRtl JPRL2 JPRel JPRP2 JPRL JPRP ART ARTD TPALT TPAPT TPALTD TPAPTD I1 IF IS DATIl RAT12 P3DT IDT DKE PD PX MTM ST KUL AlJP ARL KRP UHRI WMW UMRS I= KK NPS DBEC TPLU TPPU TPL TPPR eDPLU TDPPU TDPLR TDPPR C L R m CLSTU C P R m CPSTU C L R m CLSTR CPRTR CPSTR PUP PRL PRP DKRI DMATRA DJAaA DMlWTAZP DWESI D m LWLT LMJPT LAULTD LAUPTD LARLT LARPT LARLTD LllRPTO LlCULf I X U U ' LKChS -1 LKUPF LKUPS LKIlLI IXMZ IXRLS LKRPI LPlRPF LKRPS LPULT LPUPT LPULTD LPUPTD LPRLT LPRPT LPRLTD LPRPTD Lux LFW Lws LPRI LPRP frPRS LWRBI LPDRBF L P D R B s I l b L ~ I & n a m P R ~ u w f u P L A W R Z l L A l l R P ~ ImmP LDflRL LDWRP;
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan.
bl b4 b7 b10
0.046421 0.312627 -3584.835316 -3469,554310
b2 b5 b8
-1666.819049 -0.024422 -7453.475880 bll -11007
0.006183 e4 0.506816 e7 -129051 el0 -126958
e2
fl f4 f7 f10
0.000758 0.083659
f2
gl g4 g7 g10
0.529094 1.197983 -201409 -237579
g2
hl
0.290618 0.943515 -33340
h2
el
h4 h7
-211174
-236077
h10 -22634
2038.785043 -0.175477 eB -113316 ell -7433.930075 e5
2029.419924 -0.259241 f8 -207336 f l l -25543
f5
g5
-15608 -0.716942 -231025
g8 gll -20258
-558.691545 -0.360974 h8 -42260 h l l -9520.403081
h5
il i4 i7 i10
-0.334883
-136973
ill 16024
jl
-0.082802
j2 j5
-0.463279 -148081
j 4 -0.001050 j7 -92685 j l 0 -86211
i2 i5
0.002723
i8
-149275
j0
-0.238224
0.002214
-0.371922 -96435
jll -9863.662483
k2 k5 k8
kll 12 15 18 111
m2
0.003215 -0.076306 d -52151 mll -1668.754100
m5
n2 n5
0.003368 -1.069135 n8 -217644 nll 0.252368 02 0.001715
05 08
-0.179456 -0.473360
011 -171143 014 -136628 0.015738 -0.080254 p8 -8.927909 p l l -360460 pl4 -334100
p2 p5
q2
q5 qS qll ql4
0.038613 5.791460 0.003400
-117272 -17526
tl t4
-0.089147
0.000519 t7 1.671219 t10 -153562 t13 -141674
aal aa4 aa7
24775
ad2
-10509 aaS -7079.543806 aa8
acl ac4
0.391498 -0.000645 ac7 -660.336213 a c l O 22061 rc13 0.106894 ad1 0.292471 ad4 -0,004661
ad7
t2
-375.872593
ad10 2816.790977 ad13 0.095280 ael 0.420135 -4 -0.012427 ae7 -1466.082316 ael0 13537 ae13 0.044764
0.009682
t5 2.443668 t0 0.001790 tll -149760 t14 -14297
128876
-13142 -4166.154099
1.913753 -0.063553 34144 acll 22099
ac2 ae5 ac8
ad2
0.694748 -0.000176 15058 adll 8791.965113 ad5 ad8
am2
ae5
2.274980 -0.037650
ae8 32031 aell 22740
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan. afl
afd af7
0.000061566 7.139109 -11.909209
d l 0 -4.934407 agl 0.000009993 ag4 1.156229 ag7 0.757637 a g l 0 0.408207 ah1 0.000006421 ah4 0.258303 ah7 3.282803 ah10 1.932958 ail 87907 a i 4 -4201571 a i 7 -2367012 ajl
aj4 aj7
all a14
a17 all0 a113 aml am4
am7 amlo am13 an1 an4 an7 -10
an13 a01 a04 a07 a010 a013 apl ap4 ap7 apl0
aql aq4 aq7 aql0
af2
0.014067 0.0000008 16 af8 -11.219842 afll 0.617619 -2 0.001235
af5
ag5 ag8 agll ah2
3.90498843-8
ai2
18.556512
ai5
-3866565 -3472928
0.187199
0.241655
0.002061 ah5 4.16766lE-8 ah8 1.464072 ah11 0.328750
ai8
735591 -116958 -146575
aj2
0.000006117 -0.000000483 0.132882 -5.839992 0.436965 0.000007244 -0.000000420 0.022439 -6.321718 0.059973 -0.000004983 -0.000005245 -0.084329 -3.203702 -0.504183 -0.000002124 -0.000001633 -0.000804 -3.102229 -0.793900 0.000759 0.663270 -7057.047232 0.094266 0.010916 0.664497 -6834.665569 0.001431
a12 a15 a18 all1
aj5 aj8
0.452932 -884500 -1389509
ap5 ap8
-0.000003804 -0.089874 0.252648 -6.570456 0.483619 -0.000007876 -0.006121 0.156527 -6.546363 0.500040 0.000022723 0.186684 -0.088439 -3.526045 0.296487 0.000016258 0.060164 -0.106618 -3.477208 0.667679 -150.070186 -5071.000991 -1323.024741
aq2
-9.075830
aq5
-7697.720406 -16429
a114 am2 amS a d
d
l
am14
an2 an5 an8 an11
an14 a02 a05 a08 a011 a014 ap2
aqB
arl ar4
0.018843 1.233105
ar2 ar5
ar7 -9149.818961 ar8 arl0 0.079628 arl 0.017826 at2 ax4 1.220580 ar5 ar7 -5617.410856 ar8 arl0 0.081669 as1 -0.001137 an2 as4 -0.000093254 as5 as7 -6190.637703 as8 as10 0.063604 a t 1 -0.001137 at2 at4 -0.000093254 at5 at7 -6190.637703 at8 atlo 0.063684 aul -0.015545 au2 au4 -0.003632 au5 au7
-4941.732526 au8
aul0 0.17 4505 a w l -0.002421 av4 -0.004998 av7 -17034 avl0 0.269094 awl -0.002421 awd
-0.004998
aw7
-17034 awl0 0.269094;
AULT
= a0 + al*WI
+
a2%L
+
~ ~ * A L (JmfL+JPRL) T/ + alO*DLKIN + all*DKRI bO + blm + b2*aaP + b6*APT/ (JPUP+YPRP) + blO*DLAIN + bll*DKRI = eO + elm + c2+ c6*ALT/(JPWWJPRL) +
-
a 3 W
+
aO*JPWLl
a7-TRA + a8*+ al2*LAULT;
av2
av5 a d aw2
aw5
an8
+
aS*JPOfi2 + + a9rmESI
+
b3+ b4*JPOP1+ b5*JPOP2 + b7*DMATRA + b8+ b9r)WESI + bl2*Xd~; ARLT c 3 W + c&*JPRLl + c5*JPRfr2 + cTf=TRA + o8+ cJ*=f + c l O * D I J U N + e l l * D ~+ el2*IARLT; ISRPT - d o +dl+ d2WP + d3*HPR+ dd*JPRP1 + dS*JPECP2 + d C * A P T / (JPUP+JPRP) + d7*DH&TRA + dBfDMiNT1W + d9*DWESI + dlO+DIAxN + dll*DEmI + d l P * I A R P r ; AUI,TD = eO + el% + e2- + e3+ e4*3POL1 + eSfJPUL2 + ~~+ALTD/(JFU&+JPRL)+ e 7 * m T R A + ~~*IWAWIAH + eSfDWESI + elO*DLAf# + ell*DKRI + el2*LAULTD; fO + fl*ar + f2WP + f3+ fI*JPUPl + fSfJPOP2 + f6*AM!D/(JmfP+m) + f 7 m T R A + f0*+ f9*WlgSI + flO*DLAI1J + flltDKRI + flZ*LAUPTD; ARLTD gO + gl+ g2WL + g3*HUt+ gQ*JPRLl+ g 5 * J l ? ~ U + AUPT
+
-
-
#*ALTD/ (JPVL+XPRL)+ g7-m + gS*DMANTM + g 9 m S I + qlO+DLAII + glleDKRI + g12*LARLTD; = hO + hl*ap + h2WP + h3%tPR + h4*3PRP1 + h5*-2 hGfAPTD/ (JPUPCJPRP) h7*DWLm + h 8+ hS+DURSI + hlO*DLAIf + hll*DKRI + hl2*LARPIP;
+
+
Lampirao 2. Lanjutan. lmLf
= i O + il+ i2*TI + i7*mTRA + i B
+
+ *
i3*mlRBI + + iS*D= m + iS*WIESI + ilO*DKAIH
+ +
i6*DATI1 illeD=
ilZ*LKULI; + jl- + jP*XlWIF + j3*PDRBF + j4*JT + jS*DPIE + j6*DATI1 + j7*DMATRA + j 8 * D m + j9*DUESI + j I O * D m + j l l * D K I I I + jlZ*LKUXZ; KULS = kO + kl-S + k2*IS + k3*PDRBS + kQ*DATIl + k5*DKE + kG*=TRA + k7*+ kB*DOIESI + kS*DLAIM + klOiIIItRI + kll*LmnS; aOPI = 10 + 11+ 12*11 + 13*PDRBI + 14+ lSfDKg + 1 6 r U T I 1 + 17*DMATRli + l8*+ 19WHESI + 11O*DLAIH + 1 1 1 * D m + 112fLKVPI; KUPF = m 4 + m l W F + m 2 * I m F + m3*PDBBF + m 4 * J T + + m 6 W A T I l + m 7 m T R R + d*DbDM!FAM + &*DWESI + m l O * D m + dl*+ ml2*UmFr; -3 = nO + nl+ +*IS + n3*PDRBS + n 4 m T I 1 + n5*DZCE + n 6 * m T R A + n7*+ nB*WsESI + nS*DLAIN + n 1 0 * D m + nll*LKUPS; KRLI = 00 + 01+ o2*II + o3*PDRBf + o4*P3DT + 05+ o6*DATI2 + o7*PD + o8*DKE + o9*IDT + olO*PK + oll*mTR&+ ol2*DHWTAN + 013fD01ESI + olQ*DLAIH + olS*DKRI + o1GfLKRLI; KRLF = pO + p l W F + p2*IlWIF + p3*PDRBF + p4*P3DT + pS+JT + p6*DATIP + p7*PD + p8fDKE + p9*IDT + plO*PK + pll+ p12*+ pl3*Dl@ESI + pll*DLAIN + plS*DKRI + pl6*IXRLF; KRLS qO + ql*WS + @*IS + q3*PDRBS + qQfP3DT + q5*DATI2 + + q7*PD + @*XDT + qS*PK + qlO*DMiTRA + qllfDMUITAU + q12WWESI + ql3*DLAZW + qlQ*DKRI + ql5*LKRLS; KRPI = rO + rl+ r2*II + r3*PDRBI + r4*P3DT + r5+ r6*DATI2 + r7*PD + rB*DBE + r9*IDT + rlO*PK + r l l * m T R A + r12*DMANTAH + r l 3 w S I + r14*DLAfH + rl5nKRI + r l 6 * m I ; RRPF = so + 81+ r 2 * m F + s3*PDRBF + s4*P3DT + sSfJT + s6*DATI2 + s7*PD + s@*DKE + s9*XDT + slO*PK + s l l * m T R A + sl2*-IUJ + s l 3 m S I + 814*DIAILU + rlS*DKRI + s l 6 * m F ; KRPS = to + tlm + -*IS + t3*PDRBS + tdfP3DT + tS*DAT12 + t6*DKE + t7*m + tB*IDT + t9*m + tlO*DMATRA + tll+mawTml + tl2r)PsESI + t l 3 * D L A I H + tll*DKRI + t l S * W S ; + uQ*DaaTRA + uS*IXdWTAM + PULT = u0 + apl*AWUL + u2*AWLT + u3*=6*DB&SI + u 7 * D U I H + n8*= + u9*LPULT; PIJPT = Hi + v I * +~v 2 * m + v3+ vQ*DmTRA + vS*DMaHTmI + vS*DWESI + v7*DLIIIW + v8-KRI + v9*LPWPT; PULR) = raO + wl*AUOL/AfP + w2*AUL!FD + w3*LCUL + w4*DMATRA + w5*=AN + w~*DWESI+ w7*DLAXlU + + wg*LHJLTD; PIJPR) = XO + xl*APT[JP + xZ*AITPR) + x3+ x 4 m T R A + x5+ xG*DVlESI + x7+DLISIW + x 8 n K R I + xS*LPUFTD; PRLT = yO + yl*AURL + y2*IIRLT + y3*KRL + y4*DM&TRA + y5*+ y6*DltRSf + y ? * D U I H + y8++ yS*LPRLT; PRPT = z0 + nl*AHRP/AW + aZfARPT/ART + z3%RP + zl*INATRA + r5*+ n6*DWESI + 27+DLAIXlf + z8+DKRI + z9+fSRPT; PRLP) = aaO + aal*AOIRL/AB + ~ ~ ~ * A R L I I ) / A R ! F D+ aa3+ aa4mTRA + aa5-AN + a a 6 m S I + aa7*D+ aa8*DRRI+ aaS*U?RL!m; PlWlTl = ab0 + abl*AaRP/AW + aMelLRPTD/~RTD + ab3*1CRP + ab4-TRA + abS*DMANTAU + abC*D=SI + ab7fDLAIN + ab0*DXRI +abO*LPRPTD; KvLp
=
j0
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan HI
WF
US
+
= a c O + acl*I1MRf + ad*+ ac3*AT ac4*ATD + acS*KLI + ae6-I + ac?*IHF + ac8WHATRA + ac9+ aclO*DWESI + a c l l * D L A I H + acl2*DKRI + acl3*LUI; = ad0 + adl+ ad2*PCIM + ad3*AT + adl*ATD + ad5*KLF + ad6*ICPF + ad7*IIW ad8*DHATRA + ad9*DMAMTAM + adlO*M1ESI + adll*DL1III + adlZ*DRRI + adl3*LUF; = aaO + ael*UMRS + ae2*KHM + ae3*AT + ac4*ATD + aeS*ICLS + -6-S + at7*INF + ae8-TRA + ae9-AN aclO*DUESI +
+
PIlI
PRF
-
PRS
+
+
aelP*DKRI + ael3*LWS; + af2- + af3-S + afl*DBK + afS*PDRBI af6*=A + af7*DtAMTAH + afB*DUESI + a f 9 f D L A I M + aflO*DKRI + afll*LFRI; agO + agl+ ag2*KK + ag3-S + agQeDBK + agS*PDRESF ag6*=TRA + ag7tDWUTA.N + ag8*DWESI + ag9*DLAXN + aglO*DKRI + ag11*LPRF;
aelleDLAIN = a f O + afl-
+
=ahO+ahl+FFs+ah2~+ah3~S+ab4*DBZC+ahS*PDRBS+ ah6+-TRA + ah7*+ ah8*DWESI + ah9r)KAIR +
ahlO*DKRI
+
ahll*LPRS;
PDRBI = a i O + ail*PRI + ai2*KLI aiS*DM&NTAN + ai6,DWESX ai9*LPDRBI ;
PDRBF = a j O + ajlePRE' + ajP*ICLP aj5-AM + aj6WWESI aj 9 *LWRBF ; H3RBS = akO + akl*PRS + ak2*KLS ak5*DHANTAN + akC*DWESI ak9*LPDRBS ;
ML
+
+ +
ai3*KPI + a i 4 m T R A ai7*DWLIN + ai8*D1CRf
+ +
aj3*KPF
+
ak3*KPS + akl*=TRA + ak7*DLAIN + akB*DKRI +
+
+
aj7*DLAZLJ
+ +
ajl*IMATRA + ajB*DRRI
+ +
=a10 +aalWI +al2-+al3*JPRLl+a14*JPRL2+alS*TPLU+ al6*TDPLU + al7*TPLR + al8*TDPLR + al9*=TRA + a l l O m A N d l l * D W E S I + allZ*DIAIH + all3*DKRI + a l l 4 *fddL; =amO+aml~+am2*~+d*JPRP1+d+JPRP2+amS*TPPU+ am6*TDPpv + am7*TPPR + a&*TDPPR + am9qMATRA amlo++ amll*DUESI + aml2*DLISIN f aml3*DKRI +
*
MP
+
add*-;
HLR
=urO+anlrPf+an2~+an3*~1+an4*JPUL2+~5*TpLU+ an6+TDPLU + an7*TPLR + anB*TDPLR + an9*DMATRA + anlO*DMwTAH + anll*DPsESI + anl2*DLARJ anl3*DRRI + anl4*-; = a00 + aol+ a 0 2 W + ao3*JDUP1 + aoQ'JPZfP2 + aoS*TPW + ao6*TDPPU + ao7*TPPR + ao8*TDPPR + aog*tWATRA + a o l O * ~ A N + aollfDPlES1 + a o l 2 * D = + ao13r)RRI + aolQeIdbPR; = apO + apl+ ap2*ml~B/A+ ap3*CLRTU + apQ*CLSTU + a p 5 m T R A + ap6+ ap?*DZtgSf + apBr>IAIlU + apS*DKRI +a p l O * ~ ; = a@ + aql*WI + aq2*l?DRB/~+ aq3*CPRTU + aqQ+CPSTU + aqSeDMATRA + aq6+ aq7*DWESI + aqB*DLAIT + aq9fDKRf
+
MPR
AWUL
AWUP
+ aqlO*LMUP;
= arO + a r l W + a r 2 * m 3 ~ ~+/ar3*CLR!FR ~ + arQ*CLSTR + ar5*DMATRA
+
-lo*-;
+
ar6*-
+
ar7*I)WESI
+
arB*DLAIW
+
ar9+DKRI
ALT APT
3
=
ADLT -
+
+ ARLT m
;
i
= ALT + APT ; = AT + ATD ;
AT A
-rT
=EEULI+aRtI ; =LCULF+KRLF; = m + K R t S ; = KLI + KPI ; = KLS + BPS ; =PCUPI+KuPF+KUPS; =KIwI+KRPF+KRPS; =KRL+KRP; =rnT+mTPT; =mTD+PUPTD; =rn+E'RT;
P
=m+PTD;
w
=m+WF+ws;
Kt1 KLF
BLS
KI KS KUP KRP
KR PUT
PIPPD
BPS KF KUL KRL KU
a PRT PRTD
PTD
= PRI + PRF + PRS ; = PDRBI + P O W + PDRBS
PR PDRB
ms m
= M I A + = ;
AWL
= = + A m ; =Awx,+AmP;
=MDs+MKT;
mi m
= m m L + D m ; = r n + D W R :
DW
RUN
KPI XPF
;
DWR
2. Hasil Validasi Model Keragaan Pasar Keja dan Migrasi pada Periode Krisis dan
Sebelum Krisis Ekonorni di Indonesia. VALIDAS1 m
PASAR K E U A DAN MI-I PADA -ODE DI 1-SUL
L
KRISIS DAH
gEBELm KRISIS
nbdel Variables Endqenous
91 91 616 91
Parameters
Equations
sImaLn4 Proce&ze Simdtaacous Simulation Solution S
v
Datasst Option
Dataset GRBVNG
DATA=
OUT=
W I L
91
Variables S o l d
mwlml
Solution Hethod
lE-8
--C ktaaimnm CC
9.20382E-9 marilmIsl Iterations 5 T o t a l Iterations 735 Average Itsrations 2.95
abservations Proaersed Read 250 S o l d 249 Failed 1 Variables S o l d For : AULT AUPT ARZT ARPT ATD A KVLI KULF KRPF KRPS KG1 KPI B R L - R U PRPlPmlT PRT
PRF PIT D M
PRS AWUL
AWUP
DWR
DU;
PR
aR
AULTO AUPTD ARLTD ARPID ALT
KULS
KUPI
KW
KPF
K
PULT
KtfPP KLS
KUPS KPS
PtfPT PTD
PULTD
PUTDPRTDPT P D R B X PDRBF PDIIBS PDRB AHRL AWRP AWL AWP
ALTD KRlX
KRLI KI
P
W
PdL AW
MP DWUL
APT KKLS
KF KS PRLT PRPT F
W
biLR DauD
S
MPR DWRL
APTD AT ERPI KULKUS
PRLTD W P R I
m T DWRP
W S
Descriptive Statistics
Variab AULT Air2
ARLT ARPT AmTD
A
m
ARLTD ARPTD ALT ALTD Am APR)
AT Am A
PmLI Kmz KVLS
RCfPI KUPP
m s KRLI lERLF KRLS
-1
KRPF KRPS B;LI
KPI lCLP KPF
BLS KPS
KI KF KS ZCUL
KUP KRL KRP
PEU KR K PITLT mJPT
PVLm
PmmD PRLT PRPT
Actual Std hiean 372929 230854 85975 177001 161434 10025 65873 30415 8226 650795 413196 421954 1728549 607790 1140395 38145 522134 241676 2350816 616016 55561 236858 1538479 383813 755495 186116 3867057 999839 1185946 4575203 17293 285969 62 92 5 105610 325497 566575 17888 133209 29438 46686 216509 365953 159361 348025 1030058 1065849 316572 492307 132141 197204 634001 674172 206460 327556 176654 625535 150028 322295 1092955 1163127 663531 715995 642070 1051261 422977 687189 326682 938824 1756476 1872554 1065047 1711500 405716 945705 539548 263834 1505960 1839346 972700 1169104 669530 1473615 2993575 2478690 3148204 4399517 63760 49123 3553 32 1 21 83852 39250 59300 28222 9010 17040 7104 11930
P d c t e d
-am 230854
85976 10824 30414
8225 421951 607795 38143 241678 616020 55562 383008 106116 999828 1185944
17292 62925
325476 17888 29438
216495 159360 1030039 316569 132138 634103 206463 176652 150026 1092964 663542 642045 422958 326679 1756506 1065003 405694 263821 1505967 972705 669515 2470672 3148187 63761 3565 83050 59299 9010 7104
S M
93165 129794 58067 50583
110362 117469 595936 397655 138357 683603 173099 475900 293405 1061217 1138792 276362 113876 657496 135447 48695 428257 311324 1370413 548013 232020 839183 355912 575793 362369 1401462 886013 1194261 779176
935327 2361677 1966115 1015914 603566 2135097 1381306 1616392 3510939 5070826
28915 23344
57563 16973 7744 9343
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Descriptive Statistics Actual
Variable PRLm PRFm
m PRT PUTD PRTD
Pr PTD P WI
m US
n PRI PRF
PRS PR PDRBI PDRBP PPRBS PDRB
ML MP MLR
MPR
bms MKT PIT AaZn AHOF AfPRL AWRP
AWL AUP AB
MlIJL
D
m
DRL
DaRP Dm DPlR DW
Mobs
N
Mean
Std
Predi. c t d Hean
Std
cs Of F i t bleanAbs%
Vari&
Brror
AULT
37.92100
AUDT
36.63866
AElLT
28.28747
ARPT AULTD
36.09681 23.86170 54.83015 17.54652 23.27080 26.27431 16.35352 30.61275
m m l ARPTO
ALT ALTD APT hm!D AT
Am A
KlnI
KULF Kuta KUPI KUPF KUPs
-1
w KRt8 -1
-
m
RRPS KLI KPI
WF
lus
ma KI
m? KS
m m KRL KRP
mJ KR A
AlLT HfPT P U L m
HTPTD PhlLT
PELPT
21.11125 26.42719 17.21629 11.27116 126.06713 154.05771 79.19609 211.31257 197.10660 95.46465 67.15873 82.44320
RMs Error 71609 40840
39318 19575 58726 84750 160269 191007 95445 182991 55614 262280 113919 397153 168577
90163 67159
218578 41269 25730
139839
78717 793267
67.76292
123936
143.06956 75.38644 251.86841 71 .a1623
500665 105068 139783
105.87862 79.41816 73.15122 62.88682 82.62675 '13.85706 75.36630 66 - 0 9 7 2 2
65444
87939 855969 523100 304 982 223184
216222 1374812
193990
85.99048
344075
100.30944 63.77156
193586 875062
60.27899
593830 526601 1459344 1920078
69.44171 60.754 69 58.65805
112.89572 60.53243 511.88639
20079
0 0 131.10140
19382
20662 30063
6742 8372
PRLm
a
30181
PIlPm
0
28738 26964
rn
92.38407 74.10658 368.31972
mrrr,
0
57576
rn PrtT
m!
12508 47320
UP
58.58396 226.24598 72.62704 23.64851 26.55315
ws
29. S 9632
39683 89909
22.72113
200262
PTD P UI
u
33832
101991
92585 85616
m Variable
W
fbrror
Wean%
Statistics of Fit &an&%
-an&
Error
Error
mr0r
PRI PRF
PRS PR 1
m HIRE
m! MP
ma
rn
ma m
m ARUL AAW
MRL AURP AWL ABP
m DwuL DllCtP DuRL WlILP
m DllR Dlf
:il Bo-t
Error Statistics
HSE -ition Variable MILT AUPT
AIltT MIM!
AVLTD AUPTD
AS%TD ARPTD ALT ACTD
APT APIP AT
I 249 249 24 9 24 9 219
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
219 249 249 249
0.000
249 24 9 24 9 24 9
KULI
249 249 249
mSLZ
249
KuLs KUPI
249
ATD A
-
ZWPP KUPS -I
KRLB
-I
m
Bias (UI)
24 9 24 9
219 24 9 249 249 249 249
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Reg
tm 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001
0.000 0.004
0.108 0.027 0.002 0.048 0.027 0.000 0.202 0.000
0.000 0.190
Dlst IUD) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
0.999 1.000
1.000 0.998 1.000 0.399 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.996 0.892 0.973 0.998
0.952 0.973 1.000 0.798 1.000 1.000 0.810
Fr-M Var
(US) 0.006
0.011 0.013 0.022 0.002
0.012 0.005 0.009 0.006 0.008
0.013 0.013 0.008 0.007 0.005 0.009 0.000 0.001
0.014 0.005 0.001 0.011 0.012 0.015 0.028 0.008
RUS trror
R U S R
TLrror
R-ware
-il Variable
B
M E
Corr (R)
mPS ltGI
0.947 0.975
m?I ltLB
m
0.962 0.751 0.750 0.957 0.946 0.973 0.751 0.956 0.932
Rtn?
0.934
iCElP
0.886 0.869
KPF
m ltps KI W 16s
mL
0.935
Ku m3
K m
T
PUPT PULTD PVPTD
PRLT
PRPT
0.880 0.904 0.924 0.944 0.686 0.726 0.927 0.723
PRLTD PRPTD
0.766
HIT PRT
0.946
mrm, PRm
m! PTD P WI
rn WS 19 PRI PKF
0.728 0.902 0.711 0.755 0.950 0.749
0.927 0.846 0.865 0 . el0 0.844
0.810 0.853 0.838
PRS PR
0.822
PIIRBI
0.073
l?muaF
9.648 0.879 0.856
PDRBS
HlRB Mt bdtR
0.804 0.791 0.528
IdPI(
0.015
M S
0.005 0 . BOO 0.225 0.975
WP
kaT
m AHn
Awn? AWRL
0.987 0.984
AWRP
0.979
Am8
0.983 0.9B6 0.984
Am? AM
DwuZ
mme m
0.932 0.401 0.931
Borecrat E r r o r S t a t i ~ t i c a HSB w a i t i o n Proportions Biaa Reg DiBt Var Covar (ZWd) (m) (UD) (US) (UC)
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Variable
N
HSE
Thoil Foroca~tError Statistics MSE Decorposition ~zaprtionm Corr Bias % Dist Var Covar (R) (IM) (UR) (W)) (US) (UC)
Theil Relative ehanpo Borscaat Error S b t j ~e-sition Proport Corr air6 Reg Diat Vax WSE IR) (t~d) (UR) (w) (us)
ILOlative ehanIpe
Variable
N
Inequality Coef U1 U
Inquality C w f U1 u
Theil Rolativa Chanpo Forecast Error Statistic. asSE --sition Proportiorin MSE Corr Ma8 Diat V m Covar {R) (IM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC)
Relative Change Variabls
IP
Lampiran 3. Program Komputer dan Hasil Simulasi Dasar Model Keragaaan Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi pada Periode Sebelum Krisis Ekonomi di Indonesia. 1. Program Komputer SAS/ETS Versi 6.12 Prosedur SMNLIN Dengan Metode
Newton OPTIONS P-500
-240
m m
NODATE H
R
;
DATA GABUNG;
MERGE IN.SUPRI ; INVIF
= IF;
ALT
= AULT
APT AT Am
AUTD AU A JPL
JPU JP
KLI KLF
KLS KI
as MIP KRP KU
PUT
+ ARLT
ALTD
;
= AWPT + ARPT ; = ALT + APT ;
= = = =
AULT + AWPT ; AUL!rD + AUPTD AUL
AT
+ AUP ; + ATD ;
A P m ATD
ART
=KULF+KRLF; =KULs+KRLS; = KLI + KPI ; = EELS + KPS ; = m x + KmF + m s = KRPI + m P F + KRPS =MJL+KUP; = PULT + PUP!l! ;
= FuLm +
PRL
= mTLT = mtLT
P PR
ms m
+ mnm; + PRLTD;
=PT+PTD; =PRI+PRF+PRS; =m+MP; =AWCTL+AWRL; = A n + A W P ;
m
= m + m ;
DW
= m + D w R ; = LAD(AULT) ; = LAD (AULTD) ; = LAD(ARLT) ;
LAULT
LAmm ImUT LARtm
LKULI IXULS LKUPF LKRLI
=
LAD (ARLTD)
;
= UID(KUL11 ; = LAD(mLS) ; =
LAD(KuPF)
;
= LAD(KRLI1 ;
;
= m + A R P ;
JPR
KPI KPF KPS
KUPI + KRPI
;
PTD
PUP
=PUPT+pypTD;
PRP W
= W I + W F + W S ;
KE'
Mn. f
=
= ECUPF + KRPF ; = m s + mtPs ; = KLF + KPF ; =KULI+KULF+KULS; = KRLI + KRLF + KRLS ; = m + K R P ; = K I + K F + K S ; = PRLT + PRPT ; = P m T D + PRPTD ; = mfiD + PRTD ;
KRL KR
K
PRT P R m
PDRB MKT
= m s + m ;
AWL AW
ALTD + APTD
= ARLT + ARPT ; =ARLTD+ARPTD;
JPP
= m + J P R L ; =lTPUL+JPUP; =JW+JPR; = KULI + KRLI ;
PT
m
m
AR
P U P m ; =m+PR!r;
PUTD
A
;
= AULTD + l W T D ; AUPTD + ARPTD ;
= =
DWR
=PRPT+PRPTD; = PDRBI+PDRBF+PDRBS; = MLR + MPR ;
IKms LKRPF LmJLT LmTfiTD LPRLT LPRUC"J! LWI
ms LPRF
LPRI LPRS
LPDRBI LPDRBS = LAD (MP) ; = LAI3 ( M m ) ; = LRDIMKT) ;
UlL
W
S
mPR
IMI LRWUL
= LAD(Mm?) ; = LAD(=) ; = LAD (rn) ; = LAD(DwRP) ;
L?wRL
LDWUL LDmL
IF DKRI=1 THEN DELETE ; RUN; TITLE * SlMllAsI DASAR MDDEL KERAGAAN PASAR KERJA DAN MI-I PERIODE SEBELIM ICRISIS EKOMMI DI INDONESIA' ;
PADA
PRoC S m I N DATA=CABUW STAT S m W WTPREDXCT TIIEIL OUT=HASIL; ENDOC;ENOUS
AUPT
ARLT
ARPT
AULTD AUPTD ARLTD ARPTD ALT
ALTDAPT KUPI KUPF
APTD
Am
m s
hT KRLI
RLI
m F
ECPF
AWLT
KPI
KULKUPKRZl
PULTD PUPTD PRLT PRTD PT PTD P R F P R S P R MLR MPR MDS AWL
XHP
AW
KRP PRPT
KRLF
A KRGS
KULI
KPS
KX K
KRPI
ICULF KRPF
KULS
KF PtZT PRT
KS
KR a T D PRPTD PUT WI WF WS W PDRBF mlRBS mRB ML KU
P PD-1 MBTm
~ A W U m D W U P I l W R L U W R P m
mPs PUPT PUTD
PRI
He PIWRP P DWR
~
DW: JPUPl JPUP2 JPUIa m P m 2 3PRP2 JPRL JPRP ART ARTD TPALT TPAPT TPALTD TPAPTD I1 IF IS DATIl DATIP P D T IDT DKE PD PK Na3 J T KUL KUP KRL KRP -1 UMRF UMRS KHM TNI? KK NPS DBK TPLU TPPU TPL TPPR TDPLU TDPPU TDPLR TbPPR CLRTU CLSTU CPRTU CPSTU CLRTR CLSTR CPRTR CPSTR PUL Hm PR& PRP DKRI m T R A DJAUA
I N S T R W N T S Jmnl
DWWTAN IgWESI DLAIN
LAULT LADPT LAUL'fD LAUPlP LARLT 'WLRPT LARLTD URPm =I LKULF IXULS -1 LKUPF LIWPS LKRLI m S 1 LKRPF LKRPS LPULT LmJPT LPULTD LPUPTO LPRLT LPRPT LPRLTD LPRPTD LWI XMF LWS LPRI LPRF LPRS LPDRBI LPDRBF L P D R B S ~ ~ L M t E t I M P R L A W U L ~ ~ L A P m C P ~ LDWtTP IDmL LDWRP;
a2 a5 a8 all
-2535.816094 -0.217585
b2 b5 b8 bll
-1666.849049 -0.024422 -7453.475880
-59360 -653.924638
-11007
-2537.369675 -0.058705 c0 -30252 c l l -14388
c2 c5
e2
a5
2038.785043 -0.475477
e8 -113316 ell -7433.930075
f2 f5 f0 fll
2029.419924 -0.259241 -207336 -25543
-558.691545 -0.360974 h8 -42260 hll -9520.403081
h2
h5
i2 i5 i8 ill
0.002723 -0.238224 -149275 16024
n2 n5
0.003368 -1.069135 -217644
n8 nll 0.252368 02 05
0.001715 -0.179456
08 -0.479360 011 -171143 014 -136628 p2
0.015738
p5
-0.080254
p8 -8.927909 pll -360460 pld -334100 92 q5 q8
0.038613 5.791468 0.003400 qll -117272 q l 4 -17526
r2 0.000701 r5 -0.021131 rB -0.102702 r l l -119560
r14 -85126 0.024758 -0.049616 a8 -4.432740 sll -263810 s l 4 -240948
s2 85
tl t4
0.009682
-0.089147 0.000519 t7 1.671219 t10 -153562 t13 -131674
t2 t5 t0 tll tl4
aal aa4
24775
-10509
aa2 aa5
128876 -13142
aa7
-7079.543806
aa8
-4166.154099
ab2 &5 ab8
158375
ac2 ac5 ac8
1.913753 -0.063553
abl
32503
ab4
-24947
ab7
-22791
acl ac4
0.391498 -0,000645
ac7
-660.336213
acl0 22061 ac13 0.106894 ad1 0.292471
ad4 ad7
-0.004661 -375.872593 adl0 2816.790977 ad13 0.095280 as1 0.420135 a94 -0.012427 am7 -1486.082316 aelO 13537 ae13 0.049764
2.443668
0.001790 -149760 -14297
-30726
-1049.486501
34144
acll 22099 ad2
0.694748
ad5 -0.000176 ad8 15058 ad11 8791.965113
am2
2.274980 -0.037650 32031 re11 22740
5 aeB
af 1
0.000061566 7.139109 af7 -11.909209 af 10 -4.934407 agl 0.000009993 agQ 1.156229 ag7 0.757637 a g l 0 0.400207 ah1 0.000006421 ah4 0.258303 ah7 3.282803 ah10 1.932958 af4
af2 af5 af8 afll ag2 ag5
age
agl1 ah2
ail
87907
ah5 ah8 ah11 ai2
ai4
-4201571 -2367812
ai5 ai0
735591 -116958
aj2
0.452932
aj4
-884500
aj7
-146575
aj5 aj8
akl ak4 aL7
660861 -2991773 -2737908
ak2
4.145966 -1444327 -1274734
all a14 a17
0.000006117 a12 -0.000000493 a15
ai7
ajl
0.132082
a l l 0 -5.839992 a113 0.436965 1 0.000007244 4 -0.000000420 am7 0.022439 an10 -6.321710 am13 0 . 0 5 9 9 7 3 an1 -0.000004983 an4 -0.000005245 an7 -0.084329 an10 -3.203702 an13 -0.504103 a01 -0.000002124
ek5 aLc8
a18 all1 all4
a d am5 am0
-11 am14
-1389509
-0.000003804 -0.089874 0.252648 -6.570456 0.483619 -0.000007876 -0.006121 0.156527 -6.548363 0.508040 0.000022723 0.186684 -0.088439 -3.526045 0.296487
an2 an5 an8 an11 an14 a02 0.000016258 a04 -0.000001633 a05 0.060164 a07 -0.000804 a08 -0.106610 a010 -3.102229 a011 -3.477208 a013 -0.793980 a014 0.667679 apl 0.000759 ap2 -150.070186 a 0.663270 ap5 -5071.080991 ap7 -7057.047232 ap8 -1323.024791 a p l 0 0.094266 aql 0.010916 aq2 aq4 0.664497 aq5 aq7 -6834.665569 aq8 a q l 0 0.001431
-9.075830 -7697.720406 -16429
arO ar3 ar6 ar9
aro ar3 ar6 ar9
as0 as3 as6 as 9 at0
at3 at6 at9
au0 au3 au6 au9
avo av3 av6 av9
awO aw3
aw6 an9
arl
ar4
0.018843
1.233185 ar7 -9149.818961 arlO 0.079628 arl 0.017826 a24 1.220580 ar7 -5617.410856 arl0 0.081669 as1 -0.001137 as4 -0.000093254 as7 -6190.637703 as10 0.063604
ar2 ar5 ar8 ar2
at5 ar8 as2 as5 aa8
at1
-0.001137 at2 at4 -0.000093254 at5 at7 -6190.637703 at8 atlo 0.063684 aul -0.015545 au2 au4 -0.003632 au5 au7 -4941.732526 au8 aul0 0.174505 avl -0.002421 av2 av4 -0.004998 av5 av7 -17034 av8 avl0 0.269094 awl -0.002421 aw2 aw4 -0.004998 aw5 a w 7 -17034 an8 awl0 0.269094;
+ a l M + a2*ML + a3*- + a4*JmJLl + aS+JPUL2 + ~ ~ * A L (JPIJL+JPRL) T/ + a7*DMATRA + aB*DMRNTAW + a9*DWESI + alO*DLAIN + all*DKRI + al2*LAULT; AUPT = bO + bl+WI + b2+MP + b3+ b4*3mTP1 + b5*+ b 6 * A P T / ( m + J P R P ) + b7*=TRA + b8*=AN + bg*DWESI + blO*DLAIN + bll*DKRf + blZ*LAUPT; ARLT = c0 + cl*WF + c2wML + c3++ cQ*JPIIL1 + c5*JPRL2 + c6*AtT/ (JmTL+JPRL) + c7*DMATRA + &*-AN + cg+DWESI + clO*DLRIH + cll*DmI + cl2+LARLT; ARPT = dO + dl*WF + d2*MP + d3+MPR + d4*JPRP1 + d5*JPRP2 + d6*APT/ (JWP+JPRP) + d ? * M T R A + dS*DMA?4TAW + d9+DWESI + dlO+DLAIN + dll*DKRI + dlZ*IARPT; AULTD = eO + e l m + e2+ e3+ e4*3PaL1 + e5fJmJL2 + ~ ~ * A L T(JPIIL+JFRL) D/ + e 7 + m T R A + eB*DMANTAM + egfDWESI + elOfDLAIN + ell*DmI + elZ*LAULTD; = f O + fl*WI + f2WP + f3*MPR + f4+JWP1 + f5fJPUP2 + f~*APTD/(3fr[JP+JPRP] + f 7 * m A T R A + f B * m a W r A ~+ fS*DWESI + flO*DLAIN + fll*DKRI + flP*LAUPTD; ARLTD = gO + gl+UF + g2*ML + g3*NLEt + gQ*JPRZl + g5*+ ~ ~ * A L T (JPULtYPRL) D/ + g 7 * m T R A + gl*-AN + gQ*DWESI + glO*DIAIH + q11+DKRI + qlS*LARLTD; ARPTD = hO + hl*WF + h2*MP + h3*MPR + hQ*JPRPl + h5*JPRP2 + h6*APIP/(JPUP+JPRP) + h7*DMATRA + h8*DMANTAN + hS*DWESI + hlO*DLAIN + hll*DKRI + hlP*LARPTD; AULT
= a0
il*m + iP*II + i3*PDRBI + i4*NTM + iS*DKE + i6*DATI1 + i7*-TW4 + i e * m A N + i9*DWeSI + ilO*DLAIN + ill*DKRI + i12*LKWLI; j O + jl*WF + j2*INVIF + j3*PDRBF + j4*JT + jS*DKE + j6*DATI1 + j7*DHATRA + jB*=AN + j9*DWESI + jlO*DLAIN + iO +
-1
r
KUI,F
=
KZhS
= kO
-1
KUPF
KUPS
KRLI W
KRLS
KRPI KRPF
KRPS
PULT
PUPT PULTD
Irl3PTD PRLT PRPT
PRLTD
PRPTD
jll*DKRI + jlP*LKULF; + kl*WS + kP*IS + k3'PDRBS + kQ*RATIl + kS*DKE + k6*DMATRA + k7*DMANTAN + k 8 * m S I + kO*DLAIN + klO*DKRI + kll+fXULS; = 10 + 11*WI + 12*II + 13*PDRBI + 14*NTM + 15*DKE + 16*DATI1 + 17*mTRA + la*+ 19*DWESI + 110*DLARJ + 111*DBRI * 112*LKUPI; = m O + m l * m + d!*INVIF + n3c-F + md+JT + m5*DKE + mG*DATIl + m7*DMATRA + m B * M T A N + r9*DWESI + mlO*DLAIN + mll*DKRI + ml2*LKUPF; = no + nl*WS + n2*IS + n3*PDRBS + n4*DATI1 + nS*DKE + n6+MTRA + n7*+ nS*DWESI + nS*DLAIN + nlO+IIm + nll*LKUPS ; = 00 + 01+ o2*II + o3*PDRBI + o4*P3DT + 05*NTM + o6*DATI2 + o7*PD + 08*~mz+ o9*IDT + olO*PK + oll*DMATRh + ol2*-AN + ol3*DHESI + olQ*DLAIN + olS*DKRI + o l 6 * w I ; = pO + pl*WF + p2*INVIF + p3*PI3KBF + pQtP3DT + pS*JT + p6*DA!FI2 + p7+PD + p8*DKE + p9*IDT + plO*PK + p l l + M T R A + p 1 2 * m A N + p l 3 * ~ S L+ pld*DlAIH + plS*DKRI + pl6sLKRLF; = qO + ql*WS + @*IS + q3*PDRBS + q4*P3DT + qS*DATIZ + q6*DBE + q7*W + @*IDT + q9*PK + qlO*IMATRA + qIl*LM?WTAN + ql2*DWESI + ql3*DLAIN + qlQ*DKRT + q15*LKRL8; = rO + rl*WI + r2+1I + r3*mlRBI + r4*P3DT + rS*NTM+ rG*DATI2 + r7*PD + r8+DKE + r 9 + I D T + rlO*PK + rll*mTRA + rl2WMANTAN + rl3*DWESI + rl4tDLATN + rl5+DKRI + rl6t-I; = SO + sl*WF + sZ*INVIF + s3*m3RBF + s4*P3DT + s5+JT + s6*DATI2 + s7*W + sB*DKE + s9*IDT + slO*PK + sll*DMATRA + sl2*-AN + sl3*DWESI + sl4*DLAIN + sl5*DKRI + slC*LKRPF; = to + tl*WS + -*IS + U*PDRBS + t4*P3DT + t5*DATI2 + t6*DKE + t7*PD + t8*IDT + t9*PK + tlO*DP3ATRA + tll*DMANTAH + t12*DWBSI + t13*DI;AIN + tll*DKRI + tlS*LKRPS; = uO + apl+AntTL + u2*AULT + u3*KITL + uQ*IM&TRA+ u S * ~ A + N u 6 * m S I + u7*DIAIN + u8*DKRI + u9*L-T; = v O + vl*AWUP + vP+AUPT + v3*KUP + vQ*M!CRA + vS*-AN + vS*DWESI + v7*DLAIN + v8*DKRI + vS*LPUPT; = d + w l * m / A W + w2+AULTD + w3*KUL + wQ*-TRA + w5*-AN + ~6*DWe81+ w7*DIAIN + wB*DKRI + w9*LPULTD; = xO + xl*AWUP + x2*AUPTD + x3*KUP + xQ*=TRA + x5*-AN + xG*WJESI + x ? * D W + xB*DKRI + xS*LPU-; = yO + yI*FiWRL + y2*ARLT + y3*KRL + y4*-TRA + yS*=AN + y 6 * m S I + yi'*DLAIN + y8*DKRI + y9+LPRLT; = z0 + al*M4RE'/AH + zZ*ARPT/ART + z3*KRF + z4*=TRA + z S c m A N + z6*DWESI + z7*DLAIN + z B + D m + z9*LPRPT; = a a O + aal*AWRL/m + aa2*ARLTD/ARTD + aa3*KRL + aaQ*DMATRA + a a 5 * m A N + aa6+DWESI + aa7tDIASN + aaO*DKUI+ aa9*LpRLTD; = ab0 + abl*AWRP/AW + ab2*ARPTD/ARTD + ab3*KRP + abI*DMATRA + ab5*tMANTAN + abC*DWESI + ab7*DLAIN + ab8*DKRI +abS*LPRPTb;
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan. WI WF
WS
PRI
+ acl*rJMRI + ac2*KHM + ac3*AT + acQ*ATD + ac5*KLI + ac6*KPI + ac7tINF + ac8*-TRA + ac9*DMAHTAN + aclO*DWESI + acll*DLAIN + acl2*DKRI + acl3*LWf; =adO+adl*IlMRF+ad2*KHM+ a d Z ! * A T + a d Q * A T D + a d 5 * K L F + adC*KPF + ad7*IHF + ad8*DMATRA + ad9*DMANTAN + ad10*13WeSI + a d l l * D U I N + adlP*DKRI + adl3*LWF; =aeO +ael*I]MRS+ae2*WIM+ae3fAT+aeQ*ATD+ae5*KLS+ aeG*KPS + ae7*INF + a e 8 * m T R A + ae9*DMANTAN + aelO*DWEST + arll*DLAIN + ael2*DKRI + ae13*LWS; = afO + afl*WI + afP*KK + af3*NPS + afQ*DBK + afS*PDRBI + = acO
af6f-TRA
+
af7*-
+
af8*I1FIESI
+ af9*DLAIN +
aflO*DKRI + afll+LPRI; = ago + agl*WF + ag2*KK + ag3*NPS + ag4*DRK + ag5*PDRBF + PRF ag6*DMATRA + ag7*DMANTAN + aqB*DWESI + ag9*DLAIN + aglO*DKRf + agll*LPRF; PRS = ah0 + ahl*WS + ahP*KK + ah3*NPS + ahQ*DBK + ahS*PDRBS + ah6*MATRA + ah7*DMANTAH + ahB*DWESI + ah9XgLAIR + ahlO*DKRI + ahll*LPRS; PDRBf = a i O + ail*PRI + a i Z * K L I + ai3*KPI + aid*-TRA + ai5*=AN + ai6*DWESI + ai7*DLAIN + aiB*DKRI + aiQ*LPDRBZ; PDRBF = ajO + ajl*PRF + aj2*KLF + aj3*KPF + ajd*DMATRA + ajS*+ aj6ftHESI + aj7*DIAIN + aj8*DKRI + aj 9*LDDRBF; PDRBS = akO + akl*PRS + akO*KLS + ak3*KPS + akQ*-TRA + akS*IMANTAN + ak6*DWESI + akf*DLAIN + ak8*DKRI + ak9*LPDRBS; ML = a l O + a a l * W f + a l 2 * H F + a l 3 * J P R L 1 +al4*3PRL2 +alS*TPLU+ al6*TDPLU + d 7 + T P L R + alB*TbPLR + al9*=TRA + allO*lMAHTAN + a l l l * m S I + all2*DLAIN + all3*DKRI + all4*= ; MP = m O + aml*WX + d * W F + am3*JPRP1 + amd*JmrP2 + d * T P P U + an6+TDPW + am7*TPPR + am8*TDPPR + anS+DPiATRA + amlO*DMhNTAN + amll*DWESI + aml2*DLAIN + aml3*DKRI + -14*IMP; MLR = an0 + anl*WI + anZ*WF + an3*JmTL1 + anQ*JPULP + an5*TPLU + an6*lm3PLU + an7*TPLR + an8*TDPLR + an9*DMATRA + a n l O * ~ A N + anll*DWESI + anl2*DLAIN + anl3*DKRI + anlQ*-; m R = a00 + aol*WI + ao2*WP + ao3*JPUP1 + ao4*JPUP2 + aoS*TPW + ao6*TDPFU + ao7*TPPR + ao8*TDPPR + ao9*DkWERA + aolO*DMANTAN + aoll*DWESI + aol2*DLAIN + aol3*DKRI + aolQ*LMFR; EIWUL = ap0 + a p l m + apZ*PDRB/A + ap3*CLRTU + ap4*CLSTU + apS*DMATRA + ap6*DMANTAN + ap7*DWESI + ap8fDLAIN + apS*DKRI + aplO*LAWUL; = a@ + aql*WI + aq2*PDRB/A + aq3*CPRTU + aqQ*CPSTU + aqS*DMATRA + aq6*IWANTAN + aq7*DWESI + aqS*DLAIH + aqg*DKRI + aqlO*IAUUP; APSRL = ar0 + arl*WF + arZ*PDRB/A + ar3*CLRTR + a r Q * U S T R + arS*=TRA + ar6*IMMlTAN + ar7*DWESI + ar8*DIAIN + ar9*DKRI + arlO*LAWRt;
ALT APT
AT A
KLI KLF KLS
KI KS
m KRP KR
= m T + ARLT ; = AUPT + ARPT ; = ALT + APT : = AT + ATD ; = KOLI + =I ; =KULF+KRLF; = KULS + KRts ; = KLI + KPI ; = KLS + KPS ; = KUPI + KUPF + KUPS : =KRPI+mPF+KRPS; =KRL+IERP;
PUT PUTD PT P
=PULT+Ir[3PT;
W
= W I + W F + W S ;
Ew
=PRI+PRF+PRS; = PDRBI + PDRBF + PmBS
mlRB MDS
MT
=rmLTD+PUPTD; =FWT+PRT; = PT + PTD ;
= M L + M P ; =MDs+m;
AWL AW
=AWIfL+AnRL;
DWU
=DWLTL+DWtTP;
m
= m + D W R ;
RUN :
= m + m ;
ALTD APTD Am
KPI KPF BPS KF KUL KRL
Ku K PRT PRTD
PTD
= AIJLTD + ARLTI, i =AUPTD+ARPTD; = ALTD + APTD ;
= ENPI + ICRPI ; = KUPF + KRPF ; = KUPS + KRPS ; = KLF + KPF ; =KULI+KCTLF+KULS;
=mLI+KRLF+KRLS; =KUL+KUP; = KI + KF + KS ; = PRLT + PRPT ; = PfiLTD + PRPTD ; =PUTD+PRTD;
2. Hasil S imulasi Dasar M d e l Keragaan Pasar Keja dan Migrasi pada Periode Sebelum
Krisis Ekonomi di lndonesia.
1 Variables En&qmws
Parameters Equations
91
91 616
91
SImLIu h m c d u r e Simultaneoue Simalation Solution 1 B
V a r i a b l e s Solved
Solution Method 'ZmvmQzr
91 NEmWJ
1E-8
9.2038ZE-9 - 7 Itoratims 5 Total Itsmations 511 A m r a g e Itsrations 2.95 LdarirurOC
Observations P r o c e s d Rsad 174 Solved 173 Failed
1
Variables Solved For : AULT
APT
PmPs KPF
AUPT APTD
aRLI KLB m ICR PRPTD PUT
AmT
AT KRtF ICPS K
PRT PRI
W S W M L I m M L R AaRPAWLAwP
DW;
ALT KITPI KPI KRI.
PRPT W I
PDRBS AB[Ip
DWU
S-M P r o d Simultaneous Simulation
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Variah119 AULT AfTPT
Nabs
N
Man
Prsdi
Std
k&an AULT AVPT
ARLT
ARLT
ARPT ATnm
ARPT
AULTD
AUPR]
AUE'TD
ARLTD
ARLTD
ARPm ALT
ARPR3
ALT
AGTD
ALm
APT
APT
APTD
m
AT
AT
ATD A
ATD
KuLI
KALF
KULI KtJLF
PmLg
PRlLQ
KUPI KlTPF
A
KUPI
m s
KUPF fWP8
KRLI KRtB
mm
KRXg
KRPI WlPP
m
-
KRtI
KRtS KRPI aRPF KRPS
KLI
ICPI KLF
KPF
KF8 KI KF KS
m KUP mL
m KU
KR K HlLT PUPT WLTD
HrmP HIT.T mZPT PRLm
KI PCF Kg
BOL KUP KRL KRP KrJ
Em K mLT
PUPT HILTD PUPTD PRLT PRPT
m!m
PRPTD
PRPTD
PCfi
Pm!
PRT PUTD
PRT
PRTD
mfiD PRTD
PT
PT
jutan
-
.cs of lit
a
Wuns
Error
Error
m m
3.4774 1.9088
ARP1
3.2515 0.0537
6.4268 5.1027 9.2373 1.9809
Vuiab
m F ZWPB
4.0393
ALI
1.1950
ua
m E P I
12.2311 8.1603
39.63755 45.30479 49.02373 33.31739 11.12357 27.01603 11.02942 34.25410 43.84554 22.89992
WP
1.4746 3.5778 2.7770
IEL8
0.1490
m?s KI BB
1.1835
5.3970 4.5611 2.1289
0.6696
1.1036
38.01836
1.9548
8.2460
2s. 96207
II8
1.6325 1.2377
7.0505 6.1150
1.3905 1.6841 3.3415 1.6282
3.2133 4.6794 8.8869 2.1449 1.4291 8.3397 2.4486 4.6169 6.2890
14.09447 25.01161 26. D2138 16.74845 17.86036 28.21458 14 -54351 15.79920 16.14885 61.11040 46.63142
?az w
m WIP
m ItR K PULT
0.0286
PRPr
1.6569 0.6223 2.7646 4.4166 7.2125 3.4060 0.3846
Patm
0.3910
PRPn,
1.4991 0.3869 3.7906 5.6591 1.6901
m
PVLTn
mmm PEnT
mn
mm
mTD PltTD Fr
ETn P ICI
w? *g
1
PRI
-
3.1175 19.5491 1.7266 1.8814 1.7854 5.3867 0.0536
3.2103
7.2942
%
Prror
8.5744
1.6659 2.2585 9.7203 7.7100 7.5604 34.4215
1.0327 9.9999 2.5494
13.6291 2.3522 9.1676
PIII
1.4402
PR8 El?
1.9307 4.7008
2.0014
1
0.20B8 1.810B 1.8835 1.1362
1.2839 4.1256 6.5857 7.7559
0.2434 2.3064 1.1086
2.1612
7.6777 0.2406 1.7864 0.2425 1.2639 3.1135 0.7450 2.9768 2.0089 3.5634 2.5723 1.5829 3.4808 0.0565 2.6416 25.0637 5.6981 11.7618
25.9211 1.0675
mRm mRB
ma IdP
MPR
rn
m m
m AII(TP
AnnL mmP *1IL .*p
U Dlra
mm? mmA
rn rn
m
m
7.8937
4.5470
4.8479 28.3430 7.2123 2.3417
5.9161 7.6539 6.4112 9.6703
4.3663 5.4119 6.3721
12.10BB 192.3424
11.3435 89.2998
26.01306
Lam pi ra~
nj utan Tbail W-at
Error B t 8 t Deaolpomition
Variablm
AULT
m m
T
&RFT
mm AWm
Am.m ARPTD
ALT
hLm m APTD aT ATD A
lCULI
lIULB
mm -1
mJPF
m s -1
mLF
=I
lWPP
mm m,I m1
mr
m
m 1Cf W
Its
IWL mJF
KRL lCRP
rw 1IR
K RlLT
PUPP IWLTD
m'mn PRLT PRPT PICtm
PRPZD HIT PRT
HlTD PWD
PT PTD P m llB 18
I PRI
PRB PIls
PR
Corr (R)
Bias
Rap
(tm) m
Dist (m)
Variablm
Z l m i l hlativm Ralativm Ebaago Y ldBt Corr Bim.
(R)
W)
Fotrcut Error I t a t i m t i c a
Roeorti-
-Uon
tUR)
Dimt
V u
(IID)
(0s)
Cwrr
m)
:im Chanp, Parrcut E r r o r Statistics Docolposition Proportion9 Bias FWg Dimt Var Covar
(ua)
(
)
(m)
(us)
(uc)
Lampiran 4. Program Kornputer dan Hasil Simulasi Dasar Model Keragaaan Pasar Keja dan Migrasi pada Periode Krisis Ekonomi di Indonesia. 1 . Program Kornputer SASIETS Versi 6.12 Prosedw SIMNLIN Dengan Metode Newton O P T I a S PS=500 LS=240 NODATE DATA GABUNG: MERGE IN.SUPRI;
NOCENTER;
INVIF ALT APT AT
= IF; = AULT + ARLT ; = AUPT + ARPT ; =ALT+APT;
ALTD APT'
AUT
=AULT+AUPT;
ART
A
= AULTD
ARTn
m
AU A
JPL JPU
JP
+
ATD
AUPTD ;
AR
=AUL+AUP; = AT ATD ; =JWL+JPRL;
+
= m + m ; = m + m ;
= KULI + KRLI ; = KULF + KRLF ; = KZTLS + KRLS ; = KLI + KPI ;
= AULTD = AUPTD
+
ARLTD ; ARPTD ; =ALTD+APTD; = ARLT ARPT ;
+
+
= ARLTD + ARPTD ; = ARL + ARP ;
PUT
=KLS+KFs; = KUPI + KUPF + KUPS = -1 + KRPF + KRPS =KUL+KUP; =PULT+mTPT;
m
=PULTD+PUPTD;
PRTD
= KUPI + KRPI : = KUPF + KRPF ; = m s + KRPS ; = KLF + KPF ; =KULI+KULF+KuLS; = -1 + KRLF + KRLS ; =KRL+KRP; = KI + KF + KS ; = PRLT + PRPT ; = PRLTD + PRPTD ;
PT PUL
=mrr+PRT; = PULT + PULTD; = PRLT + PRLTD; = PT + PTD ;
PTD PUP PRP
= PUPT + m m ; = PRPT + PRPTD;
KLI KLF
KLS XI KS ICUP KRP KU
PRL P PR
ms
=PRI+PRF+PRS; = = + M e ;
MT
= m s + m ;
AWL
=AWUL+AWRfi;
AW
= - + A m ;
DWU
= = = = = = = = = =
Dw LAULT LAULTD
LARLT LARLTD
LKULI
Ixcns LKUPF
LKRLI
DWUL + DWUP ; m + D W R ; LAD(iwLT) ;
LAD(AuLTD1 LAD(ARLT1
mD(ARLTD1
LAD{KULI) LAD(KULS)
LAD(KUPF1 LAD(KRL1)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
KPI KPF
KPS KF KUL r
KRL
I
KR K PRT
w PDRB
MKT
= m + P R T D ;
= W I + W F + W S ; = PDRElI+PDRBF+PDRBS; = MLR + MPR ;
= LAD(AUPT) ; = LADmmrD) ; = LAD(ARPT) ; = LAD(-) ; = LAD(KULP) : LAD(KWP1) ;
-
= mDIKUPS) ; = LAD (KRLF) ;
1 Forrcut Z r t o r S t a t i e t i c m W -mition Prwrtionm
Bias (W
Wig
Dimt
Ylr
(m)
(uo)
(US)
0.007 0.004 0.009 0.001 0.001 0.030 0.060 0.073 0.070
0.005 0.069 0.059 0.018
0.062
0 . ooe 0.001
0.005 0.036
0.001 0.004 0.026
0.006 0.025 0.030 0.006 0.016 0,011 0.002
0.002 0.021 0.015 0.075 0.018
0.000 0.019 0.038 0.016 0.010 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.014
0.013 0.091 0.058 0.075 0.022 0.006 0.006 0.000 0.067
0.082 0.022 0.033 0.008 0.016
0.046 0.033 0.010 0.032 0.020
0.013 0.055 0.055 0.027 0.044
Cmar (E)
Inequality C o r i ul U
Thai1 F o r m t Error S t r t i m t i c s
Proportion.
-8ition
varirbls
bl
PQIL
Corr
Bias
Rag
IR)
(W
fm)
.rhPil Rmlmtivm Cb-tiV-iablm
El
(21*np.
l5E
Corr (R)
0.56018 0.68408 0.1668 0.39705 2.04960 0.1826 6.40414 2.00247 0.16744 0.2115
1.23815 7.09718 0.8128 5.73452
0.1394 0.1668 90.1911 4.23728 70.12893 PO. 8604 5.21845 6.98566 6.47679 5.53377 0.2225 2.25976 0.12151
3.62479 0.22401 1.02824 4.17915 3.49381 2.54664
1.52396
V8r (US)
Covar
% i
Dirt (OD)
Var IVs)
Inequality C o d VL u
(ve)
F o n t Error S t a t i m t i c r Deoaqomitiaa P r m o n s
airm
Ww
Diet (UD)
Covu
I m i t y Coef
V1
U
&latiVarirblm
N
Thmil Rmlatiwe Chmg. B o m s t E r r o r S t a t i n t i e m BE3g -lition Prap~rtiorm WSC Corr Btam Rsp Dist V u Covsr (El) IW (IIR) CUD) (US) (UC) &aqm
0.654 0.754 0.704 0.719 0.635 0.728 0.814
0.831 0.821 0.742 0.703 0.736
0.800
0.864
0.802 0.880 0.762 0.420 0.728 0.827 0.890 0.893 0.860 0.756 0.897
0. BOO 0.863 0.765 0.860
0.866 0.755
0.711 0.947
0.827 0.766 0.871
0.805 0.743 0.720
0.931
0.867 0.911 0.887 0.709
0.823 0.621 0.361 0.707 0.152
Inmqu8lity C w f
m
U
Lampiran 4. Program Komputer dan Hasil Simulasi Dasar Model Keragaaan Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi pada Periode Krisis Ekonomi di Indonesia. I . Program Komputer SASIETS Versi 6.12 Prosedur SIMNLIN Dengan Metode Newton OPTIONS PS=500 LS=24O HODATE R-
W
R
;
DATA GABUNC; MERGE IN.SUPRT ;
INVIF ALT APT
AT AUT A m
= IF; = AULT
ALTD
= AULTD
=
AFTD
=AuPTD+ARPTD;
Am
= ALTD = ARLT
+ ARLT ; AUPT + ARPT ; = ALT + APT ; = AIILT + AUPT ;
A
= AULTD + AUPTD ; =AUL+AwP; = AT + ATD ;
JPL
=JPUL+JPRL;
mu
= J P U L + m ; =JPU+JPR;
AU
JP fCLI
KLF KLS KI
Ks KUP
KRP KU
m PUTD
PT PUL PRL P
PR MDS EIT AWL AW
DWU DW LAULT
LAULTD LARLT LARLTD LKULI
LKULS LKUPF LKRLI
= KULI + KRLI ; =KZTLF+KRLF; = m s + KRLS ; = KLI + W I ; = KLS + KPS ; = KUPI + KWPF + KUPS = -I + KRPF + KRPS =KuL+KUP; = PULT + WPT ; = WLTD + PUPTD ; =PwT+PRT; = W L T + PULTD; = PRLT + PRLTD; =PT+PTD; =PRI+PRF+PRS; = M L + M P ; =ms+MECT; =AWUL+AWRL; = A W L + m ;
ART ARTD AR
KPI
KPF KPS KF I
KUL KRL
KR K PRT
PRTD PTD PUP
PRP W PDRB MKT
+ ARLTD
+
APTD ;
+ ARPT ; = ARLTD + ARPTD = ARL + ARP ;
= KITPI = KUPF 3
+ KRPI
+
+
;
KRPS KPF ;
;
=KULI+KULF+KULS; + KRLF + KRLS ; =KRL+KRP; = K I + K F + K S ; = PRLT + PRPT ; = PRLTD + PRPTD ; = m + P R T D ;
= KRLI
= PUPT + m; = PRPT + PRPTD; =WI+WF+ws; = PDRBI+PDRBF+PDRBS; = M L R + r n ;
=DWLTL+DWlTP; =DWU+DWR;
= = = = = = = =
LAD (AULT)
=
LAD (AUPT) ;
LAD (AULTD)
= = = =
LAD(AUPTD)
; ; LAD(ARLT) ; LAD (ARLTD) ; LAD(KUL1) ; LAD(KULS) ; LAD(KwPF) ; LAD(KRL1) ;
;
KRPF ;
m s +
= KLF
;
;
LAD (ARPT) ; LAD (ARPTD) ; LADIKULF) ; = LAD(KUe1) ; = IAD(KuPS1 ; = LAD(-) ;
LPULT
= LAD(KRLS1 ; = IAD(KwF) ; = LAD (PULT) ;
LPULTD
=
WIDIPULTD)
LPRLT LPRLTD
= = = = =
mD(PRLT)
LKRLS
LKRPF
LWI LWS
LPRI LPRS =RBI mRBs Ima
m s rn LMT
LAWUL LAWRL
mulm LDWRL
-
= = = = = = =
LKUPI
m
LPUPT LmJPTD
; ;
LPRPT LPRPTD LWF
IAD (PRLTD) ; LADMI ; LADIWS) ;
LAD(KRP1) ; = XAD(KRPS) ; = LAD(PUPT) ;
=
-
LAD(PUPTD)
;
= LRDIPRPT) ; = LAD (FRPTD) ; = LAD(WF1 ;
LPRF
LAD(PR1) ;
LAD(PRS1
s
;
LPDRBF
mD(PDRB1) ; LAD (PDRBS) ; LADIML) ; LAD (MDS) ;
IMP
rn
LAII (MPR) ; ZADIMT) ;
rn
LADtAWUL)
LAWUP LAWRP LDHUP
=LAD(-) = LAD(DWLTL) = LAD(DWRL)
IF DKRI=O THEN DELETE
; ; ; ;
fJlWECP
= = = =
LAD(AWUP) ; LAD (-1 ; LADIDWUP) ; W(DWRP1 ;
;
-;
TITLE 'SIMUUWI DASAR m D E L KERAGAAH PASAR KERJA DAN MIGRASI PADA PERIODE KRISIS EKONQMI DI IHDOHESIA' ; PROC SIMNLIN RAT-WNG ENDOGTZNOUS
STAT SIMUIATE OUTPREDICT THEIL OUT=HASIL;
AULT
AUPT
ARLT
ARPT
ALTD
APT KUPF
APTD KUPS
AT KRLI KPF
KUPI KLI
n F KRL KUL PULTD WPTD PRLT
PRTD PRI? MLR AWL
KPI KUP
PT PRS
PTD PR
MPR
MDS
AWP
AW
KRP
AULTD AUPTD ARLTD ARPTD ALT ATD A atlLI KULF m u KRLF
KRPI
KRPF
KRPS
KLS
KRLS KPS RU KR PRLTD PRPTD
KI
Kt? PULT PRT
KS
PRPT W P
mmf MKT DWUL
I
K PUT
W F W S W PDRBF PDRBS PDRB ML M'l! AWULAWUPAWRL DWLTPDWRLDWRPDWU
PUPT
m PRI MP AWRP DWR
DW; INSTRIlMENTS JPULl JPUL2 JPUP1 JPUP2 Jmh JPUP JPRLl JPRL2 JPRF1 JPRp2 JPRP ART ARTD TPALT TPAPT TPALTD TPAPTD I1 IF IS RAT11 DATI2 P3DT fDT D m l?D PK NTM JT KUL KUP KRL KRP UMRI UMRF ZlMRS KIM l M ? KK NPS DRK TPLU TPW TPL TPPR !CDPLU TDPW TRPLR TDPPR CLRTU CLSTU CPRTU CPSTU CLR!T!R CLS!PR CPRTR CPSTR EgJL PUP P R L PRP DKRI DMATRA DJAWA -AN DWESI DLAIN
LAULT LA= LADLTD LAUPTD LARLT LAReT LARLTD LARPTD LKULI LKULF LKUL8 LXUPI WnrPF LKUPS LKRLI m S LKRPI LKRPF fXRPS LmTLT LWPT LPULTD LPUPTD LPRLT LPRPT LPRtTD LPRPTD LOPI LWF Lws LPRI LPRF LEgtg LFDRSI LPDRBE' L P D R B S ~ ~ ~ I M P R L A W U L ~ L A W R L L A W R P L D W U L
LmmP LDWRL IaWRF;
a1 a4 a7 a10
0.000563 0.466529 -53703 -65475
a2 a5 a8 all
bl b4 b7 b10
0.046421 0.312627 -3584.835316 -3464.554310
b2 b5
cl
0.009701 cd 0.109050 c7 -40392 c10 -27334
el
0.006183
9 4 0.506816 e7 -129051 el0 -126958
fl f4 f7
-2535.816894 -0.217585 -59360 -653.924630
-1666.849049 -0.024422 b8 -7453.475880 bll -11007
c2
-2537.369675 -0.058705 c8 -30252 c l l -14388 c5
02 2038.785043 e5 -0.475477 e0 -113316 ell -7433.930075
0.000758
f2
2029.419924
0.003659 -211174
f5 f0
-207336
-0.259241
f10 -236077
fll -25543
gl
0.529094 1.197983 g7 -201409 g10 -237579
92 g5 g0 gll
-15608 -0.716942 -231025 -20258
hl h4 h7 h10
0.290618 0.943515 -33340 -22634
h2 h5 h8 hll
-0.360974 -42260 -9520.403081
il
-0.334083
i4 -0.463279 i7 -148081 i10 -136973
i2 i5 i8 ill
0.002723 -0.238224 -149275 16024
jl
j2
0.002214 -0.371922 -96435
g4
4
-0.002B02 -0.001050 -92685
j7 jl0 -86211
j5 j8
-558.691545
jll -9863.662483
k2 k5 k0 kll 12 15
18
0.054740
-0.901875 -159217 0.269950 0.000479 -0.018574 -99436
111 5726.813521
0.003368 -1.069135 n0 -217644 nll 0.252368 02 0.001715 05 -0.179456 08 -0.479360 011 -171143 014 -136628 n2 n5
p2 p5 p8
0.015738 -0.080254 -8.927909
pll -360460
pl4 -334108 92 q5
0.038613 5.791468
qS 0.003400 qll -117272 q l d -17526 r2
r5 r0 rll rl4
0.000701 -0.021131 -0.102782 -119560 -85126
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan. tl t4 t7 t10 t13
-0.089147
t2
0.000519 1.671219 -153562 -141674
t5
0.009682
2.443668 t8 0.001790 tll -149760 tl4 -14297
aal aad aa7
24775
acl
0.391498
ae2
1.913753
ae4
-0.000645
ac5
-0.063553
aa2
aa5 -7079.543006 aa0
-10509
aa7 -660.336213 aclO 22061 ac13 0.106894 ad1 0.292671 add -0.004661 ad7 -375.072593 adlO 2816.790977 ad13 0.095280 ael 0.420135 a94 -0,012427 am7 -1406.082316 aelO 13537 a613 0 . 0 4 9764
128876 -13142 -4166.154099
ac8 34144 acll 22099 ad2 ad5
0.694748 -0.000176
ad8 15058 ad11 8791.965113
ae2
2.274980
ae5
-0.037650
a98 32031 aell 22740
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan. afl af4
0.000061566 7.139109 af7 -11.909209 a f l 0 -4.934407 agl 0.000009993 ag4 1.156229 ag7 0.757637 aglO 0.408207 ah1 0.000006421 ah4 0.258303 ah7 3.282803 ah10 1.932958 a i l 87907 a i 4 -4201571 a i 7 -2367812
0.014067 0.000000816 af0 -11.219842 af 11 0.617619 ag2 0.001235 r g 5 3.98498843-8 ag8 0.187198 agll 0.241655 ah2 0,002061 ah5 4.1676613-8 ah8 1.464072 ah11 0.328750 ai2 18.556512 ai5 -3866565 ai8 -3472928
ajl
735591
aj4
aj7
-116958 -146575
aj2 aj5 aj8
0.452932 -084500 -1389509
akl ak4 ak7
660861 -2991773 -2737908
ak2
4.145966
ak5
-1444327 -1274734
af2 af 5
ak8
all
a12
a14
a15 a18 all1 all4 am2 am5
0.000006117 -0.000000483 a17 0.132882 a l l 0 -5.839992 a113 0,436965 am1 0.000007244 am4 -0.000000420 am7 0.022439 amlo -6.321718 am13 0.059973 an1 -0.000004983 an4 -0.000005245 an7 -0.084329 an10 -3.203702 an13 -0.504183 a01 -0.000002124 a04 -0.000001633 a07 -0.000004 a010 -3.102229 a013 -0.793980 a p l 0.000759 ap4 0.663270 ap7 -7057.047232 apl0 0.094266 aql 0.010916 aq4 0.664497 aq7 -6834.665569 a q l 0 0.001431
am0
an11 am14
an2 an5 an8 an11 an14
a02 a05 a08 atoll
a014 ap2 ap5
ap8
aq2 aq5 aq0
-0.000003084 -0.089874 0.252648 -6.570456 0.483619
-0.000007876 -0.006121 0.156527 -6.548363 0.500040 0.000022723 0.186684 -0.008439 -3.526045 0.296487 0.000016258 0.060164 -0.106618 -3.477208 0.667679 -150.070186 -5071.080991 -1323.024791 -9.075830 -7697.720406 -16429
arO ar3 ar6 ar9 ar0 ar3 ar6 ar9 as0 a83 as6 as9
arl ar4
at0
at1
at3 at6 at9
at4 at7 at10 aul au4 au7 aul0 avl av4 a07 avl0 awl
0.018043 ar2 1.233185 ar5 ar7 -9149.810961 ar8 arlO 0.079628 arl 0.017026 ar2 ar4 1.220580 ar5 at7 -5617.410856 -8 arl0 0.081669 as1 -0.001137 as2 as4 -0.000093254 as5 as7
av9
aw0
aw3 aw6 aw9
AUPT
ARLT
ARPT AULTD
A
m
ARLTD
ARPTD
-0.001137 at2 -0.000093254 at5 -6190.637703 at8 0.063684
-0.015545 -0.003632 -4941.732526 0.174505 -0.002421 -0.004998 -17034 0.269094 -0.002421 aw4 -0.004998 aw7 -17034 awl0 0.269094;
au0 au3 au6 au 9 avo av3 av6
AULT
-6190.637703 as8
a s l o 0.063684
= a0 + alfWI: + a2*HL + a3*MLR + ad*JPULl a6*ALT/ (JmTLtJPRL) + a7*DMATRA + a8*=AN
au2 au5
au8 av2 av5
av8 aw2 am5 aw8
+
a5*JmJL2
+
+
a9*DWeSI
+
alO+DLAIN + all*DKRI + alZ*LAULT; = bO + bl*WI + bP*MP + b3*MPR + b4*JPUP1 + b5*3mJP2 + b6*APT/ (JmJP+JPRP) + b7*DMATRA + bB*-AN + b9*DWESI + blO*DLAIN + bll*DKRI + blP*LAUPT; = GO + clW + c2*ML + c3*HLR + cd*JPRLl + c5*JPRI2 + c~*ALT/(~PuL+J'PRL) + c 7 + w T R A + c8*-AN + c9*I)WESI + clO*DLAIN + cll*DKRI + c12*LARLT; = dO + d l * W F + d2*MP + d3*MPR + dQ*JPRPl + dS*3PRP2 + d6*m/(JPUP+JPRP) + d7*=TRA + dB*DMANTAN + d 9 * m S I + dlO*DIAIN + dll*DKRI + dl2*LARPT; = eO + elm + d * M L + e 3 W + e4*JPUL1 + e5fJPUfi2 + ~ ~ * A L T D / ~ J P U L + J P+R ~ e7*=TRA ) + eB*DMANmN + e9+DWESI + eIO*DLAIN + ell*DKRI + el2*LAULTD; = fO + fl*WI + f2**MP + f3*MPR + II+JPUPl + fS*JPUP2 + ~~*APTD/(JPUP~JPRP) -k f7*DMATRA + fB*-AN + f9*DWESI + flO+DLATN + fll*DKRI + fl2*LAUPTI3; = @ + g1+ g2*= + g3*MLR + g4*JPRL1 + g5*JPRL2 + ~~*ALTD (JP[IL+JPRL) / + g7*DMATRA + @*-AN + g9+DWF,SI + glO*DLArn + gll+DKRI + g12*LARLTD; = hO + hl*WF + h2*MP + h3*MPR + h4*JPRP1 + h5+JPRP2 + h 6 * m / (JPUP+JPRP)
+ h7*DMATRA + hB*DMAmAN + + hlP*LARPTD;
hlO*DLAIN + hll*DKRI
h9*mS1
+
KULI
= iO + il*WI + i7*='PRA
+
+
+ il2*LEIULI;
KULF
KULS KUPI
KUPS
KRLI
KRLF
KRLS
KRPI KRPF
KRPS
PULT
PUPT PULTD
PUPTD PRLT PRPT
PRLTD PRPTD
+
i3*PDRBI + id*+ iQ*DWESI
+
iS*DECE
+ iG*DATIl
ilO*DLARJ
+
ill*DKRI
+
= j O + jl*WF + jP*INVIF + j3*FDRBF + j4*JT + j5*DKE + j6*DATI1 + j7rDMATRA + jB*DMXNTAN + jS*DWESI + jlD*DLAIN + jll*DKRI + jlP+LKULF; = kO + kl*WS + k2*IS + k3*PDRBS + kQ*DATIl + kS*DKE + k6*DMATRA + k7*-AN + k8*&IESI + k9*DLAIN + klO*DKRI + k11*LKULS ; = 10 + 11*WI + 12*II + 13*PDRBI + 14*NIP3 + I5*DKE + 16+DATI1 + 17*DMATRA + la*+ 19fDWESI + 110*DLAIN + lll*DKRI
+
KUPF
i2*fI iB*-AN
112*WEUPI; + ml*WF + m2*IHVIF + d*PDRBF + m4*JT + &*DKE + mb*DATIl + m7*DMATRA + rnB*DMANTAN + mQ*DWESI + mlO*DLRIN + mIl*DKRI + mlZ*LKUPF; = no + nl*WS + n2*Is + n3*PDRBS + nQ*DATIl + nS*DKE + n 6 * m T R A + n7*DMANTAN + nB*DWESI + n9*DLAM + nlO*DKRI + nll*LKUPS ; = 00 + ol*WI + oZ*II + o3*PDRBI + od*P3DT + o 5 * m + o6*DATI2 + o?*PD + o8*DKE + o9*fDT + olOfPK + oll*DMATRA + o l 2 * m A N + ol3*DWESI + ol4*DLAIN + olS*DKRI + ol6*LKRtI; = pO + pl*WF + pZ*INVIF + p3tPDRBF + p4*P3DT + pS*JT + pC*DAtPIP + p7*PD + p8*DKE + p9*IDT + plO*PK 4 pll*Dbf?~TRA + plP+-AN + pl3*DWESI + plQ*DLAIN + plS*DKRI + p16*LKRLF; = qQ + ql% + @*IS + q3*PDRBS + q4*P3DT + @*=TI2 + q6*DKE + q7*PD + qB*IDT + 99*PK + qlO*DMATRA + qIl*LWAHTAN + q12*DWESI + ql3*DLRIN + q14*DKRI + qIS*LKRLS; = rO + rl*WI + rP*II + r3*PDRBI + r4*P3DT + rS+N!CM + r6*DATI2 + r7*FD + r0*bKE + r9*IDT + rlO*PK + rll*=TRA + rl2+DM?iNTAN + r13*DWESI + rlQ*DLAIN + rlS*DKRI + rlG*LKRPI; = SO + sl*WF + s2*INVIF + 53*PDRBF + s4*P3DT + r 5 * J T + sG*DATIZ + r7*PD + r8*DKE + r9*IDT + sIO+PK + sll*DMATRA + s12*DMAWTAN + sl3*DHESI + sld*DLAIN + sl5*DKRI + s l 6 * m F ; = to + tl*WS + -*IS + t3*PDRBS + t4*P3DT + t5*DATI2 + tG+DKE + t7*m + t8*m+ t9*m + t l O * D m m ~+ tll*mwrm + tl2*DWESI + tl3*DIAlM + tldtDKRI + tlS+LKRPS; = uO + apl*= + u2*AULT + u3*MTL + uQ*DMATRA + US*+ u6*I3WESI + u7*DLRfN + uB*DKRf + ug*LPULT; = v O + vl*+ v P + A I f P T + v3*KUP + vI*DMATRA + vS*DMAN!l'AN + vS*DWESI + v7*DIAIN + v8*DKRI + vS*LPWPT; = wo + w l * m d m / ~ +~ w2*AULm + w3*KUL + w 4 a - m + wS*=N + w6*DWESI + w?*DLAIN + w8*DKRI + wg*LPULTD; = x0 + xl*AWUP + x2*AUPTD + x3*KWP + x4*-TRA + x5*DHMTAN + xG*DWESI + x7*DLRIN + x 0 * D m I + x9*LPUPTD; = yo + yl*AWRL + y2tARLT + y3*KRL + yQ*lMATRA + y S * I X W T A N + y6rDWESI + y7*DLAIN + y8*DKRI + yg*LPRLT; = x0 + z l * m / ~ + s~*ARPT/ART+ z3*KRP + z 4 * M T R A + z5*+ z6*DWESI + 27*DLAIN + z8*DKRI + eg*LPRPT; = aao + aal*AWRL/Aw + d * A R L m / A R T D + aa3*KRt + aad*DMATRA + aaS*=AN + aa6*DWESf + aa7*DLAIN + aaB*DECRI+ aa9*LPRLTD; = ab0 + abl*AHRP/AW + ab2*ARPTD/ARTD + ab3*KRP + abQ*IMATRA + abS*DMANTAN + abG*DWESI + ab7*DLAIN + ab8*IIKRI +abS*LPRPTD; = no
WI
WF
+ acl*UMRI + ac2*KHM + ac3*AT + acQ*ATD ac6*KPI + ae7*TNF + acS*IMATRA + aeS*=AN acll*DLAIN + acl2+DKRI + ael3*LUI;
= acO
+
ac5*KLI
+
+ aclO*DWESI +
=ad0 +adl*UMRF+ad2*KHM+ad3*AT+adQ*ATD+ad5*KLF+ ad6*KPF + ad7*= + adB*IMATRA + ad9*IMANTAt4 + adlD*DWESf
+
adll*DLAIN + adlZ*DKRI + adl3*LWF; WS = aeO + ael*UMRS + aeP*KHM + ae3*AT + ae4*ATD + ae5*KLS + ae6*KPS + ao7*INF + aeB*DMATRA + aeg*DMANTAN + aolO*DWESI + aell*DLAIN + ael2*DKRI + ae13*Ln6; PRI = afO + afl+WI + afP+KEC + af3*NPS + afQ*DBK + afS*PDRBI + af6*DMATRA + af7+-AN + af8*DWESI + af9*DlAIH + aflO+DKRI + afll*LPRI ; = ago + agl*wF + ag2*KK + ag3*NPS + agQ*DBK + agS*PDRBF + PRF ag6*=TRA + ag7+DMANTAN + ag8*DWESI + ag9*DLAIN + aglO*DKRI + agll*LPRF; PRS = ah0 + ahl*WS + ah2*KK + ah3*HPS + ahd*DBK + ah5*PDRBS + a h 6 * m T R A + ah7*DMAWAN + a h l * M S I + ah9*DLAIN + ahlO*DKRI + ahll*LPRS; PDRBf = aiO + ail*PRI + ai2*KLf + ai3*WI + ai4*DMATRA + aiS*IMAMTAN + ai6*DWESI + ai7*DLAIN + ai8*DKECI + ai9*LPDRBI ; PDRBF = a j O + ajl*FJRF + ajP+KLF + aj3*KPF + aj4,DMATRA + aj5++ a j 6 * m S f + aj7*DLAIH + aj&*DKRI + aj9*LPDRBF; PDRBS = ak0 + akl+mLS + akP*KLS + ak3+KPS + a k Q * D M A W + ak5*DM?WTAN + ak6*DWESI + akY*DLAIN + akB*DKRI + akO*LPDRBS ; ML = a l O + a a l * W I +al2*WF+al3*JPRLl +alQ*JPRL2 + a l S * T P L U + alG+TDPLU + al7*TPLR + al8*TDPLR + a l 9 + m T R A + allO*DMANTAN + alll*DWESI + all2*DLAIN + a l l 3 * D K R I + all4fIML; MP = am0 + aml*WI + d * W F + am3*JPRP1 + anQ*JPRPP + am5+TPPU + am6*TDPPU + am7*TPPR + -8*TDPPR + a m 9 * M T R A + amlO*-AN + mll*DWESI + am12*DIAIN + am13*DKRI + amlQ*UP; MLR = an0 + anl+WI + an2*WF + d * J P U L l + and*+ anS*TPLU + an6*TDPLU + a n 7 * T m + anB*TDPLR + a n 9 * m T R A + anlO*IMANTAN + anll*DWESI + a n l P * D U I l ? + anl3*DKRI + anlQ*W; MPR = a00 + aol*W1: + ao2*WF + ao3+JPUP1 + ao4*JmJP2 + aoS*TPW + aoC+TDPPU + ao7*TPPR + ao8*TDPPR + a09*mTRA + a o l O * +~aoll*DWESI + aolZ*DLAIN + a o l 3 * D K R I + aolQ*IMPR; AWUL = ap0 + apl*WX + ap2*WRB/A + ap3*CLRTU + apQ*CLSTW + ap5*DMATRA + ap6*=AN + ap7*DWESI + apB*DLAM + ap9*DKRI + aplO*LAWUL; AHUP = aqO + aql*WI: + ~@*PDRB/A + aq3*CPRTU + aqQ*CPS!FU + aq5*DMATRA + aq6*-AN + aq7*DWESI + aq8*DIAIN + aqS*DKRI + aqlO*LAWUP; AWRL = arO + arl*WF + U~*PDRB/A + ar3*CLRm + arQ*CLSTR + arS*DMATRA + arG*DMANTAN + ar7*DWESI + ar8*DLAIN + ar9*DFRI + arlO*LAWRL;
ALT APT
AT A
= AULT + lW,T ; = AUPT + ARPT ; = ALT + APT ;
= AT + ATD
ALTD APTD
ATD
= AULTD
+
ARLTD ; = A m + - ; = ALTD + APTD ;
;
= KUPI
+
= KUPF
+ KRPF
= KULI + KRLI ; =KULF+KRLF; = KULS + KRLS ; = KLI + KPI ; = KLS + KPS ; =KUPI+KUPF+INPS; = KRPI + KRPF + KRPS ; =KRL+KRP; =PULT+FuPT; =PULTD+mfPTD;
KPI KPF BPS KF
PRT PRTD
= K I + K F + K S ; = PRLT + PRPT ; = PRLTD + PRPTD ;
PT P W PR PDRB
=PUT+PRT; =PT+PTD; = W I + W F + w s ; =PRI+PRF+PRs;
PTD
=WTD+PRTD;
ms
= M L + M P ; =MDS+MKT; =AnuL+AWRL; =AWL+AWP; =DwuL+DwuP;
PEL1 IUF
KLS KI KS
m
KRP KR
PUT PUTD
MT AWL AM
DWU Dw RUN ;
= PDRBI
KZTL KRL
KU K
+ PDRBF + PDRBS
=mu+=;
DWR
KRPI ; ;
= KUPS + KRPS ; =KLP+KPF; =KULI+KULF+KULS; =KRLI+KRLF+PERLS; =KUL+KUP;
2.
Hasil Simulasi Dasar Model Keragaan Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi pada Peride Krisis Ekonomi di Indonesia.
I s
PASAR
DA8AR -EL
PADA FERImE KRISIS
KERJA DAN MI-I DI m S I A
1 Variables Endog~araae-ra
91 91 616
Bquations
91
SmNLIN ProSimultaneous Simulation Solution Sulrmry
Variables S o l d Solution &thd CONVE-=
91
1E-B
WISE CC 5.49396K-9 H ' Iterations 3 T o t a l Iterations 224 Avorage 1-rakions 2.95
Observations Pr-ssed IIead Solved
76 76
Variables Solvmd For : AULT ARLT
ARPT
ARPrO
ATD KRLS
mu
KUPS
A P T D M -1 fQ(tF
KPF
BLS
KI
KUP
Lm
KR
PULT
PRPTD
m
E8S K PRT
WF
ws
PP
PRI
PRF
PRtT P PDRBF
Mt
MP
MLR AFIRPZUsLAWP
m
Afl[JL
AWRX.
M
mRP
APT
m;
mm
KLI
A
m
m ECLF KRP PRLTD
HlRB
m
Descripti Act
Hean
.C8
Predicted Hean Std
lWLT
AULT
AUm
A m mLT ARPT
ARLT ARPT m T D AUPlP ARLTn
AULTD AUPTD
ARPTD
ARLTD hRPTD
ALT
ALT
mm
AtTD
APT
llPT
APTD
AeTD
AT
ATD
AT ATD
A
A
KVLI aLtLF
KULI
llITLS KUPI mPF KUm =I
zWlg
KUPI mPF KUPS
fQtLF
nu?
KRLa
IWLF
-
%I
KRPI WlPF
KRPI
mPs
KEles
KRPP
ICLI -1 KLF
KPB KLS KPS LCI KB
KS
KI KF
rn
K8 KUL KUP
KRL KRP
KRL KRP
fCV ICR
Ku
K PULT PVPT PULTD nfPTD PRLT PRPT
PULT PUPT PULTD PVPTD
KUL
KR K
PRLT
PRPT
PRLTD PRPTD
P R L m
m
PUT
PRT mTD
PRTD PT
m P PTI
PRPR)
PRT
PffiD
PRTD PT PTD P PfI
Variable
-
DeacriptjLW Statistics Actrual Btd
Predicted
man
Std
Lab1
WS
m ws
1
1
PRI
PRI PRF
WF
rn PR8
m
PR
mRBF
PR PDRBI PDW
PLIT(B8
PDRBS
PDRBI HlRB
HlRB
Bn
ha
MP
bw
m m ms rn
baR NPR
ms bml'
MT Aatn. lrrrtm
AHRP
ma APrP M
m MlCrP
mmL mRP
DPW
m WO
sLran% Caor
S t a t i n t i a m of Pit -kbw% Error Error
m b b s
Rlde Error
ZBCB %
Error
lban*
Crmr
S t a t i a t i c m of Fit m A b n m A b a % wzvr Error
mm Error 548267 1219240 755023
4451897 2867417 1335468
1305325 1969324 7335612 2537315
1%76491 1582148 4677134 3122052
3445790 8005648
11497106 3610411 220367
1766549 188358 969899
199119 16980325
9122380 3667601
1021573 1812754 19264430 4605405 20784198 20470664 125383 1543472 4061349
5718816 73.6762 15.7708 27.4865
90.6487 23834765
219BZ05S 11e29921 48584798 4935 30.0521 34.6993 24.7418
4920 59.3924
4921
22711 35362
29824 5771530
42225 5751353
5770510 865934 151943
9755117 5359191 928808 11146327
11425321
1 Pot-t W3#
Corr IR1 mlLT AmT mmT ARPT
AVLTD JUfPTD BRz.m
lillPTO U T
ALm
M
m AT Am
h mLI
lWLB lltns rmP1
ml'r lIUPB lCIlZf
muz mLn W I mPF
ram lCtf lCPI ltLF mP ltts
IcP8 ICT
rn AS IWL
lCIIP
IWP
xu KR LE m T
mm PULTD PZTPm
mLT mPT DIIL'ZD
mmn m PRT PPZO PRTD
m P m P
m RF
us 1
m
rn H18
PR
Error Statimticr Pertions
-mition
Dint
Biaa
(ma
I=)
(m)
Vat
(us)
Covmr (tlcj
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Vatiablm
H
.
mil m P
Corr (R)
F0reca.t Error S + r t i w t i u l 5 E moorpodtion Proportiom miaa Dimt Var C w a r (ZW) (W (W1 (US) IUC)
0.188 0.226 0 . %O 0.272 0.002
0.100 0.323 0.431 0.004 0.364 0.002
0.612 0.166
0.932 0.001 0.603 0.002 0.006 0.04% 0.281 0 . ooe 0.015 0.072 0.013 0.021
Vrrirbla
Tlmil %wlatiaChrag. Fo-t I l s l m t i v s chrpg. -nition II Corr Bimm
(rU
0
(flR)
Error S t 8 t i m t i c m h.oportioru Dimt Vac bvar
(m)
T h i l
Mati-
Ilolativ* Chanw Y
MSE
Corr (R)
--st
Error Statistics
m o l p o m i t i o n Prqwrtions Biaa Dint V u Mar
m
(UR)
{m)
(us)
(vc)
ampiran 5. P r o w Komputer dan Hasil Simulasi Kombinasi Peningkatan Program Dana Padat Karya 30 Persen, Program Dana Pembangunan 15 Persen, Konsumsi Kalori 20 Persen dan Investasi Sektoml 15 Persen Terhadap Model Keragaan Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi pada Periode Seklum Krisis Ekonomi di Indonesia. 1. Program Komputer SASETS Versi 6.12 Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Metode Newton OPTIONS PS-500 LS-240 NWIATE NONUMBER N-TER; DATA GABUNG; m R G E ZN.sUPRI; INVIF = IF; ALT = AEnT + ARLT ; UTD = AULTD + ARLTD ; ApT =AUPT+XRPT; APTD = lWPTD + ARPTD : AT = ALT + APT ; ATD = ALTD + APTD ; AUT = AULT + AUPT ; ART = ARLT + ARPr ; WTD =AULTD + AUPTD ; ARTD = ARLTD + ARPTD ; AU = AUL + AUP ; AR =ARL+ARP; A
= AT + ATD ;
JPL
= J P U L + m ; = m + J P U P ; = m + J P R ; a B[TLI+ ~ R L I;
m JP =I KLF
KLS PU:
KS KUP KRP KU fZPT
PUTD PT PUL PRL
P PR MDS PIT
JPP JPR
=athF+aRLF;
=KULS+KRLS; = ECLI + BPI ; BLS + KPS ; = KUPI + KUPF + KUPS; Q
E
-1
+
KRPF
+
-8;
= K Z T L + ~ ~ ~ J P ; = PULT + PUPT ; =PULTD+PUPTD; -puT+PRT; = W L T + PULTD; = PRLT + PRLTD; = PT + PTD ; = PRI + PRF + PRS ; =HL+MP;
=JPUP+JDRP; = J P R L + m ;
+ KRPI
;
+ +
;
KPI KPF KPS
= m
KF
=-+BPF;
KUL
= KULI
BR
a PRT PRTD PTD
PUP PRP W WRB
I
= KOPF = IctrPs
+
KRPF
KRPS ;
KULF
+ KULS
;
=ECRLI+KRLF+ItRLS; =BRL+BRP; = K I + - + K S ; =PRLT+PRPT; = PRLTD + PRPTD ; =PVTD+PRTD; =PUPT+PUPTD; = PRPT + PRPTD; = U I + W + W S ;
= PDRBI+PDRBF+PDRBS;
WCT
=HLR+MPR;
rn
= m + m ;
DWR
=DWRL+DWRP;
LAUPT
=LADIAUPT)
LAUPTO
=I
= ~ + A P P R L ; =APsL+mrP; =DWUL+WWP; =DWU+DHR; = LAD(AULT) ; = LAD (AULTD) ; = LAD (ARLT) ; = LAD (AFILTD) ; = LAD(mL1) ; = LADIKULS) ; = LZID(KZTPF) ; =LAD(KRLI) ;
LmLS LXRPF
= LAD(RRLS1 : IAD(BRPF) ;
WSRPX
=LADIAUPTD) ; =LADmRPT) ; -LAD(ARPTD) ; =IADIKuLF) ; = IAD(KUP1) ; =LADwUPS) ; =LAD(KRLFI; = LIIDIKRPI) ;
LaRPS
= LAD(KRPS)
LPULT
= LAD(=T)
= LADIPUPTI ;
LPULTD
= LAD{PULTD) ; = LAD (PRLT) ;
LWPT LPVPRl
APOL
rn nWU
DW LAULT LAULTD IARLT LARLTD
m I LIWLS
LPRGT
= m s + m ;
Q
;
LARPT LARPTD LKULF LKUPI LKUPS LaRLF
LPRPT
;
;
= m(PuPTD) ; = LA13 (PRPT) ;
= UID(rnTD) = LAD(wI)
LPRLTD
-
LWI LWS LPRI LPRS
;'
LAD (Ti#)
LPRPTI3 LWF
; ;
LPDRBF
;
LPDRBS
= mD(PECI) ; = LAD(-) ; = LADIPDRBI) = IAD(HIRBS)
Ua
=
LPDRBI
;
LAD(=) ; LAD(MD8) ; = LAD(MPR) ; LAD(=) ; LAD(-) ; LAD(-) ; = LAD(MWL) ; = LADtDwlu) ;
m s
-Q
LMPR
LMr IAmL
mmL LWPUL mwRL
IF DKRf=l THEN DELETE ;
TITLE 'S-I
-INAS1 PlZNINCBATAN DANA PADAT KARPA 30%, PROCRZW DANA -GUNAH 15%, K O N S W I W R I 2 0 % DAN INVESTAS1 SEKTORAL 15% TERRAaAP =RAGAAN PASAR -A DAN MI-I PADA PERIODE SEBELW -81s E K O N W I DI m S I A ' ;
PEEM: S-IN m
O
U
M S
STAT SXbWU!l!E OUTPREDICT THEIL OUT-MIL;
AaLT
AUPT
ARLT
ALTD
APT KUPF KPI
APTI)
KUPI ECLI
K Z T L R U P m T I I PUPTD m T D PT PRF PRS biPR MIL
ARPT
AT KUPS KRLI
A I h T D AUPTD ARGTD ARPTD ALT ATD A KULI KULF KULs aRGF KRPI KRPF KRPS
KLF KPF BLS KPS KI B R L K R P E C U KR K PRLT PRPT PRGTD PRPTD PUT
PTD PR bDS
A W P A W
ECF PULT PRT W
KS PUPT
PUTD P W I W S PRI PDRBI PDReF PDRBS PDRB ML MP WBT MT AHULAHUPAPlRLAHRP W s V L D w u P D w R L ~ D m ? D w R
DW; 2 JPUPl JPUP2 JPClL JPUP JPRLl JPRL2 JPRPl JPRP2 ART ARTD TPALT TPAPT TPALTD TPAPTD I1 IF IS D A T I l D A T I P P 3 D T IDT Dm PK NTM JT auL KUP BRL KRP -I UMRF W KHM INF KK NPS DBK TPUJ TPPU TPL TPPR TDPLU TDPPU TDPLR TDPPR (3LRTU CLSTU CPRTW C P S m CLRTR CLSTR CPRTR CPSTR Hn. PUP PRL PRP DKRI DadATRA DJAWA DWiNTAN DMESI DLAIN LAXILT LAUPT LAULTD LAUPTD =!I! LARLTD LARPTD LKULF LKULS LaVPI W N P F W U P S =I LKRLF I X R L S LKRPI IKRPF L#RPS LHTLT LPUPT LPULTD LHJPTD LPRLT LPRPT LPRLTD LPRPTD IAWI LWF L W S LPRI LPRP LPRs -RBI LPDRBF W R B S ~ I M P ~ L M m L A E R l L L A W U P ~ L m R P L W W L m w u P I D P s R L
INsTRZIW&msm 1m
JErIIL
-;
JPRP
bl b4 b7 b10
0,046421 0.312627 -3584.035316 -3469.554310
el
b2 b5 b8 bll
-1666.849049 -0.024422 -7453.475880 -11007
02
0.006183 0.506816 -129051 010 -126950
2038.785043 -0.475477 o B -113316 ell -7433.930075
fl
0.000758
f4
0.083659
f7 -211174 f10 -236077
f2 f5 f8 fll
2029.419924 -0.259241 -207336 -25543
0.529094 1.197983 g7 -201409 g10 -237579
g2 g5 g8 gll
-15608 -0.716942 -231025 -20258
hl h4 h7 h10
0.290618 0.943515 -33340 -22634
-558.691545 -0.360974 -42260 hll -9520.403081
il i4 i7 ilD
-0.334883 -0.463279 -148081 -136973
0.002723 i5 -0.238224 i8 -149275 ill 16024
jl j4 j7 jl0
-0.Oa2802
j2
0.002214
-0.001050 -92685 -86211
j5
-0.371922
j8 -96435 jll -9863.662483
kl k4 k7 kl0 11 14
-0.179716 0.484334 -200450 -37933 -0.134040 -0.148299
k2 k5 k8 kll 12 15
04 17
gl g4
e5
h2
hS h8
i2
0.054740 -0.901075 -159217 0.269950 0.000479 -0.018574
m2
0.003215
mS
-0.076306
m8
-52151
mll -1668.754100
0.003368 -1.069135 -217644 0.252368 0.001715 -0.179456 -0.479360 011 -171143 014 -136628 n2
n5 n8 nll 02 05 08
p2 p5 p8 pll p14
0.015738 -0.080254 -8.927909 -360460 -334108
t2
0.009682 2.443668 0.001790
t8 tll -149760 t14 -14297
Lam piran 5 . Lanjutan
aal aa4
aa7 abl sb4
sb7 acl
24775 a -10509 ar5 -7079.543866 -8
32503 -24947 -22791
afl0
0.391498 -0.000645 -660.336213 22061 0.106894 0.292471 -0.004661 -375.872593 2816.790977 0.095280 0.420135 -0.012427 -1486.082316 13537 0.049764 0.000061566 7.139109 -11.909209 -4.934407
apl
0.000009993
ag4
1.156229 0.757637 0.408207 0.000006421
ac4
aa7 aclO ac13
ad1 ad4 ad7 ad10 ad13 ael a04 ae7 a010
ae13 afl sf4 af7
ag7 aglO ah1 ah4 ah7
0.258303 3.282803
ah10 1.932958 ail ai4 ai7
87907 -4201571 -2367812
ajl
735591
128876 -13142 -4166.154099
ab2
158375
ab5
abs
-30726 -1049.406501
ac2
1.913753
ae5
-0.063553
34144 a c l l 22099
ace
ad2 ad5 ad8 ad11
0.694748 -0.000176 15058 8791.965113
a 2
2.274980
am5 a08
-0.037650 32031
a011 22740
af2 af5 af8 af 11 ag2
0.014067 0.000000816
ai5 ai8
-3866565
aj2
0.452932
-11.219842
0.617619 0.001235 ag5 3 . 9 8 4 9 8 8 4 3 4 ag9 0.187198 agll 0.241655 ah2 0.002061 ah5 4.3676613-8 ah8 1.464072 ah11 0.328750 a i 2 10.556512 -3472928
akl ak4 ak7
660061 -2991773 -2737908
all a14 a17 all0
0.000006117 -0.000000483 0.132082 -5.839992 0.436965 0.000007244 -0.000000420 0.022439 -6.321718 0.059973 -0.000004983 -0.000005245 -0.084329 -3.203702 -0.504183 -0.000002124 -0.000001633 -0.000804 -3.102229 -0.793980 0.000759
a113 am1 am4 -7
am10 am13
an1 an4
an7 an10 an13 a01 a04 107
a010 a013 apl ap4
ap7
ak2
ak5
4.145966 -1444327
ak8
-1274734
a12 a15
-0.000003884 -0.009874 0.252648 -6.570456 0.483619 -0.000007876 -0.006121 0.156527 -6.548363 0.508040 0.000022723 0.186684 -0.080439 -3.526045 0.296487 0.000016258 0.060164 -0.106618 -3.477208 0.667679 -150.070106 -5071.080991 -1323.024791
ale all1
a114 am2 am5 am8
am11 am14 an2 an5
an8 an11 an14
a02 a05
a00 a011
a014 ap2 0.663270 ap5 -7057.047232 ap8
a p l 0 0.094266 aql 0.010916 aq4 0.664497 aq7 -6834.665569 a q l 0 0.001431 ax1 0.016813 ar4 1.233185 a r 7 -9119.818961 arlO 0.079628 arl 0.017026 a r d 1.220580 ar7 -5617.410856 arlO 0.081669 as1 -0.001137 a s 4 -0.000093254 a s 7 -6190.637703 as10 0.063684 a t 1 -0.001137 a t 4 -0.000093254 at7 -6190.637703 at10 0.063684 aul -0.015545 au4 -0.003632 au7 -4941.732526 au1O 0.174505 a v l -0.002421
aq2
aq5 a@
ar2
-9.075030 -7697.720406 -16429
are
-202.514567 -4638.124761 -6463.584039
ax2 at5 ar8
-239.649117 -1101.747535 -2169.204113
as2 as5 as9
0.212701 -6043.116060 -8560.298893
at2 at5 at8
0.212701 -6043.116060 -8560.298893
au2 au5
au8
0.480015 -6078.135354 -1256.053728
av2
0.506132
ar5
av3 av6 av9
ow0
AULT AUDT
-
aw3 an6 aw9
35.973051 -7252.647309 -1202.473222 44378 35.973051 -7252.647309 -1202.473222
av4 av7
-0.004998
-17034
avlO 0.269094 a w l -0.002421 -0.004998 -17034 awl0 0.269094;
aw4 ow7
av5 awe
-17104 -11964
an2
0.506132 -17104 -11964
aw5 awe
aO+al*WI+a2*ML+a3~+a4f JPULl+aS*JPVL2+a6*ALlr/(JPUL+JPRL) +a7*DMATRA+ a8*~+a9*W1ESf+alO*DIAIN+allfDKRI+al2*~T; = b O + b l * 0 ~ 1 + b 2 * M P + b 3 * ~ + b 4 * j P O P l + b 5 * ~ ~ ~ ~(dWP+JPRP] 2 + b 6 * ~ / +b7f
+-
b8f~+b9*WWSI+blO*D~+bll*DKRI+bl2*~; ARLT = ~ O + C ~ ~ W B + ~ ~ * ~ C ~ * W ~ R + C ~ * ~ ~ + ~ ~ * ~ + C ~ * A L T / ( J P U L + J P R G ) + C ~ * D W d*-+c9fDWESI +c10fDUM+clltDICRI+c12*XARLT; / +d7*-+ ARPT = dO+dlfUF+dZ*MP+dSw+d4 * J P R P l + d 5 * ~ + d 6 * A P T(JmfP+JPRP) & * ~ + d 9 ~ S I + d l O * D I A I M + d l *DKRI+dl2*LARPT l ; AULTD = ~ O ~ ~ * ~ + ~ ~ * M ~ + ~ ~ * M L R + O ~ * ~ + O ~ * ~ + ~ ~ * A L T D / ( J W L + ~ ) + ~ e8+~+e9f~Sf+e10fDLAIN+oll*DKRI+el2*~TD; 2*MP+f3fMPR+f4 * r n l + f5*JPUP2+f6 +f 7f-+ AUPR) = fO+flm+f f&*-I 9*IMESI+fl O * D m f11*DKlU+f 12*LAUPTD; ARX.TD = ~ Q + g l * ~ ~ + g 2 * ~ 3 * M L R * +~ s+4g 5 * ~ + p d t A L T (mm) D / +gTt=TRA + ~ B * ~ + Q ~ * ~ S I + ~ ~ O * ~ ~ ~ * D E ( R I + ~ ~ ~ * L A R L T D ; ARPTD = ~ O + ~ ~ ~ P I F + ~ ~ * ~ ~ F ~ ~ ~ + M ~ R + ~ ~ * J P R P ~ + ~ ~ * J P R P ~ + ~ ~ * A P T D / ( J P U P + J P R P ) + INLI KULF
+h8+~h9*DFQESI+hlO*DIAIN+hIl*DfCRI+hl2*LARPTD; = iO+il~+i2*II+i3*A3r(Bf+i4*~i5*DIlg+i6~TIl+a7*~~+i8*~+ i9*~8I+ilO*DLARJ+i11*DPlRI+il2*LfmLI: = jO+jl*~j2*~B+j3*PDRBF+j4*JT+j5*D~+j6*MTIl+j7*~TRA+jB*~ +j9*WWSI+jlO*D~jl1+DKRI+jl2*~;
= kO+klfWS+kZ*fS+k3*PDRBS+k4*DATIl+kSf~+k6*~TRA+k7*~+k8*~SI +k9*DIAIWklO*DKRI+kll*IKULS;
KUPI
= 10+11*WI+12*I1+13*HIRBI+14*NTWtl5*Df(E+
KUPF
-
19*DPIESI+110*DLAIN+111*DKRI+112*LKUPI; = n O + m l * V ? F + d * INVIF+I3*PDRBF+mQ*JT+fi*DKe+m6*MTIl+r7*-+r0*-+
r9*~SI+m10*D~+nllfD~k12*LKUPF; nO+nl*~+n2*IS+n3+HI~+n4*~Il+nS*DK&+n6*~TRA+n7*~+nB*D~SI +n9fDIAm+n10fDfCRI+nll*KKUPS; KRLI = o0+0l*~+o2fII+o3fA)EIB1+o4~P3DT+o5~6*MTI2+o7+HHo8*~~+o9*m~ o l O * P K + o l l * ~ + o l 2 * ~ l 3 * D W ol6*LKRLI; + KRLF = ~ O + ~ ~ * ~ ~ I N V I S U ~ ~ * R ] ~ ~ + P ~ D ~ * J T + ~ ~ * M T I ~ + P ~ * P P , ~ * D K E plO*PK+pllfI M A T R A + p 1 2 * ~ + p 1 3 * ~ 8 I + p 1*DLAIN+p15*DrCRS+ 4 plC*LKRtF; qO+qlf~+#fXS+q3*PDRBS*q4*P3DT+q5*DATI2+q6+DKE+g7*PD~f~T+99*PIC+ qlO*~+qll*~+~12*OP1ESI+ql3*D~+ql4*DKRf+q15~LKRGS; LCRPI = cO+rl~+r2*II+r3*PDRBI+r4*P31)T+r5*~r6*bATI2+r7*~+r8*D~+~9*mT+
LWPS
-
lQCPF
rlOfPK+rll*T3WATRA+rl2*~+~:l3*DBE8I+rl4*D~+rl5*DKRf+rl6*TXRPI; = S O * ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ * I N V I F + S ~ * A ~ I I B F + ~ ~ * P ~ + ~ ~ * ~ + S ~ ~ ~ ~ + S ~
KRPS
= t0+tlf~+t2*18+t3*WE(Bg+t4fP3DT+tS*MTI2+t6fD~+t7*PD+t8*~+t9*PK+
HILT
= uO+apl*AwCffAu~*AULT+u3*KAL+u4*~TRA+uSt~AN+u6*~8I+u7*D~+
+s10*PZC+sllfIlEaTRA+sl2*~~13*aWPSI+014*D~+~15fDICRI+sl6*~:
tlO*~TRA+tll*~tl2~SI+tl3*DM+t14*DKRI+tl5*LKRPS;
u8*DIIRT+u9*LPULT; POPT = ~ O + ~ ~ * ~ + V ~ * A U P T + V ~ * ~ ~ * ~ + V ~ * ~ + V ~ * ~ S I + ~ ~ * D ~*DKRI+VO*LPUPT; PULTD = W+wl* A R U L / A ~ + ~ ~ ~ * A U L T D + W ~ * ~ W ~ * ~ T I ~ A ~ * ~D *m~++ W ~ * L ~ ~ E ~ I + W ~ d*D=+&*LHILTD;
PUPTD = xO+d *IWUP+X~*AUPTD+X~* IWP+x4* ~ T R A + r Sm f + x 6 f= S I + x 7 * ~ l d ~ + x8*DmI+x9fLPUPTD: PRtT = y 0 + y l * ~ y 2 * A R L T + y 3 * ~ 4 * ~ + Y 5 * ~ + u S * ~ B I + y 7 * D ~ **DKRI+yS*LPRLT; PRP'P = z O + z l f ~ / M + x 2 * A R P T / A R ' 1 Y ~ 3 * K R P + e d * ~ T R A + a 5 * ~ + z 6 * ~ s 1 + z7*DLAIH+zB*DBRI+x9+LPRPT: PFtLTD = a a O + a a l f A W R Z / A n + d * A ~ ~ / ~ R T D + a a 3 * ~ a a 4 + ~ ~ ~ ~ + a a 5 + ~ + ea6*~SI+aa7*DLAIN+aaB*D1CRl+aa9*~'IP:
ALT
= MILT + ARLT
APT
= WPT
AT
=ALT+APT; = AT + ATD ;
A
+
;
ALTD
ARPT ;
APTD
ATD
+
= KULI + aRLI ;
= KUPI
=lmLF+KRLF; = KULS + KRLS ; = BLI + KPI ; = BL8 + KPS ;
=armF+KRPF; = KUPS + KRPS ; =KLF+KeF; = K U L I + m J L F + W ;
= KXJPI = XRPI
= KRLI
KRP
KR
=KRL+WrP;
E C L I KLF
KLS W
KS KUP
+ KUPF + KWPS
+
KRPF + KRPS
+
KRPI
m
F
;
+
=ICUL+atTP; = K I + K F + K S ;
-8
;
WT
= PULT + PUPT ;
PRT
=PRLT+PRPT;
PUTD PT P
=HnTD+PuPTD; = PUT + PRT ; = PT + PTD ;
PRTD PTD
= PRLTD + PRPTD ; = PUTD + PRTD ;
a
==wI+wF+us;
PR PDRB
= P R I + P R F + m ; = HlICBI + PORBF + mRBs ;
MDS
=a*=;
kmT
= m + M P R ;
PIT
=
m S + MKT
;
rn
=m+=;
Aw
= A W L + m ;
D m
= m + m ;
Dw
= m + D W R ;
=
DWR
~
P
*
=WsRL+WsRP;
~
;
2, Hasil Simulasi Kombinasi Peningkatan Program Dana Padat Karya 30 Persen, Program Dana Pembangunan 15 Persen, Konsumsi Kalori 20 Persen dan Investasi Sektoral 1 5 Persen Terhadap Keragaan Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi pada Periode Sebelum Krisis
Ekonomi di Indonesia 81-1
KERAGARN P
m mRJA DAN MI-I PADA PERIODE S g B e L W =SIS DI INDON&SIA
LKON(3ldI
Wodel Variables
91
Endagonous Parameters Equation8
91 616 91
Number of Sta-nts
91
SLMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Suamnry
Dataset
D a t a s e t Option
GAWJNG
DA!l!A=
M I L
0 -
Variables Solved
91
Solution Uthd CONVERGE=
NEWTON 1E-8 Marim- CC 9.912143-9 b l o r i m u m Itorations 3 510 2.95
T o t a l Iterations
Average Iterations
Obmmmationm Procussed RQsd 174 Solved 173 Failed 1
Variables S o l d For : AIlLT AUPT ARLT
ARPT AULTD AUPTD APTD AT ATD A KULI KOLF B[TLS KRLS KRPI aRPF KRPS KLI KPI KS XULPaJPBRtKRP aV KR FRLT PRPT PRLTD PRPTD HJT PRT W F W P R I PRF PRS MP WLR MPR ~ S M K T M T A H U DwwLDafTPmmLDrrmPDwu DWR
ARLTD ARPTD ALT ALTO IWPI KUPF KUPS aRLI W KPF KtS KPS K PULT PVPT PULTD PUTI3 PRTI3 PT PTD PR =RBI PDRBF HIRBS
APT aRtF KI
KF
PUPTD P WI PDRB KL L A W U P A P l I l L ~ A P l LW &H
Dw;
S I M m I N Procedure Simultaneous Simulation
Prsdicted Std Lab1
AULT AIfPT
ARLT ARPT lWLTD AUPTD
ARtTD ARPTD ALT
ALTD
APT APTD
AT
A m A
mLI K[ILF
mL8 mfPf mPF KUPS KRLI KRtF
m x KRPF
m m1
m?f KLF m?F lug IIPS
KI KF
KS
4659834 686779 2400550 629523 14149415
AVLT AUDT
AULT ARPT AULTD 1230065 AUPTD 22001335 ARLTD
7171624 5914715 24770466 1314016 8398736 5755742
ALT
ALTD APT
APTD AT
27315310 ATD 28016070 A 244968 fWL1 124394 696177
KULF FUKS
122991 KllPI 52336 KUPI? 452730 KUPS 312082 KRLI
1497442 KRIS 575031 KRLS 229482 KRPI 892497 376461 542644 347413 1619922 94 3793
KRPF
KRP8
1258311 823496 888820 2562294 2073092
KI KS
MIL KVP
1042751
K[IL
622354
#VP
m
2313527 KRL
PCRe
1464489 1661878 3775220 5402551
Ka KR K PULT PUPT HnTD
PUPTD PRLT PRPT PRLm
PRPTD PlJT PRT HJTD P R m
PT
KRP KU
KR K 995671 PULT 177333 455282
25271 201745 165746
PUeT PULTD PUPTD FRLT
PRPT
2061820 PRZ.TD 1018994 PRPlP 972170 PVT 303591 m(T 468900
PUTD
2310313 1110931
PRTO PT
Descriptivm Stmti~tics
Predicted
Actual Variable
m P
WI
PIP WS
1P
Hesn 64564 117953 218815 85783 221217 525814
PRI
16.9641
PRF PRS PR PDRBf HImF
1.6456 5.4964 24.1062 4552942 2399972
PDRBS
4262071
WRH
HL MP bna
HPR
kms m m
11214981 13.7110 14.2948 35.7514 36.2717 28.0058
72.0231
100-0289
API[IL
26536
m
62746 20438
AsmL
Mm?
m
22436 4 6974
m
85182
An
132156 10801 27143
Dwm DWUP DwRL
19468
rn
22800
Dwu
37944
m m
42268 80212 W
Z
Std 151077 211648 129798 57304 147551 334364
25.3327 0.8990 2.2771
26.8824 7208215 2878664 6369302 15827510 4.9776 5.3189
6.6439 5.9524 10.2154 10.1403 0 -5647 50023
&
-3759515 -14430115
0.110 257927 779896 1000463 99.0210 0.2310 19.2800 149.9740 15836368 25624026
10394911 39231966 3332.351 11.7560 44.7874 41.9956
3720.708 93.4200 4297.740 52726
132364
2453837 %tatistiam of F i t
-ah 9506058 269799 3654649 213711 14413471 1506420 12389087 4950385 13113834 22140730 471430 5354346 12988891 25767126 34137264 647133 539142 446686 402507 253271 754047 540433 3230859 308797 368917 2334144
16795 719.02195 4772 490.01013 25865 2483
1937 2701 2521 3094 438.5793 6368 5105 1450 1236 750.0493 466.6015 2325 859.1340
4.7766
W
3.6838 4.4634 3137 7.0771 3135
lQsl
PDRB
MPR
m S
288491 1394794 1376584
16793
6932
HL
PDRBF
709716 2404476
86649 4072263
Error
171.1763
5418764 12056368 35740274 3130
1289446 DMRL 601807 W
33052 4066784
Crsoz
4620 117.0926 25193 2410 36.3161 521.5946 9970 3156 275.3742
PR PDRBT
1523762 1114741
40861 40073 90361 222836 278320 17320 88601
Error 451.8603
29.3334 19060651
4233057 6818B2 78233
167
64536
Lab01
49023 205563 41085 4257060 89207 4307593 4386060 284375 86140
208788
30516 35381 95432
Std
2283458 PTD 2533604 P 0.1267 WI 120297 Osr 325340 W# 443469 W 28.9588 PRI 1.3276 PRF 2.5621 PRS
leal 1120 9971
3513 551.77096 816.85343 6933
2372 2886
2523 3094 d62.308%2 6368 5105 1465
I236 759.99206 474.74892 2325 863.96789
IblB Error 10644390 674496 4326011 622068 18724443 1950129 22053291 7125045 14418332 29676910 1293316
8786371 14302904 31791841 40451031 663239 542715 181477 406915 254545 769756 547958 3291021 336177 378110 2368421
AMUL ARUP AWRG
AlsRP XWL AOsP
AW MQUL
MWp
-
Wl[f
DWR
DW
%
Error 23224 1478 6098 1156 49308 3653 2785
1697 12231 4501 1236 1429 8629 2872 3632 3176 4099 600 -5147 10729 8994 2054 1799 892.9381 665.5185 4637 1052
mil mrrcut
Zrror S t a t i s t i c s
Dlc~mition Praport B i u Rq Di8t Vw IR)
0
(us0
IUD)
(US)
0.063 0.510 0.541 0.625 0.002 0.052 0.007 0.630 0.014 0.626 0.001 0.000 0.ooe 0.667 0.001
0.671 0.667 0.250 0.426 0.955 0.828 0.260 0.862 0.613 : i v m Chusg. Forecast Erto+ S t r t i s t t e m lsra -mition Proportion* B i ~ m Ilwg Dimt V r r Covar
(ma
(um
a.525
KPf
172
lCLB
172
0.475 0.043 0.956 0.538 0.462 0.005 0.994 0.268 0.732 0.371 0 . 6 2 9 0.004 0.991 0.064 0.930 0.637 0.363 0.465 0 . 5 3 5 0.028 0.971 0.003 0.995 0.618 0.382 0.109 Q.590 0.528 0.471 0.423 0.576 0.539 0.460 0.505 0.485 0.333 0.666 0.328 0.6'12 0.4U 0.515 0.477 0.520 0.686 0.270 0.486 0.479 0.256 0.743 0.667 0.318 0.048 0.952 0.501 0.494 0.363 0.636 0.707 0.270
ltPI
172
m m
0.672
172
0.552 0.431 0.593 0.465 0.177 0.522 0.709 0.275 0.565 0.430 0.533 0.465
aVLT
172
*UPT
172 172 172 172 172
ARLT M -'ID
m llLi
172 172 172
ALTD
172
rn
172
APTD h*
172 172 172 172 172 172
U&'ZD
lIIPTD
ATD
A -1 mlX
172 -1 mPF
rn -1
172 172 172 172
W
172
?=S23
172
-1 KRPS
I72 172 172
lCLI
172
m
172
N
172
rn
172
KS IWL
172
172
0.319
(ImK1) 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.003 0.W 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.014 0.035 0.001
0.015 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.023 0.009 0.017 0.001 0.001 0.016 0.005 0.002
0.172 0.898
0.455 0.920 0.729
0.590 0.879 0.762 0.359 0.491 0.911 0.878 0.3.19 0.530 0.439 0.530 4.429
0.349 0.639 0.633 0.469 0.438 0.085 0.230 0.687 0.190 0.870 0.414 0.601 0.130 0.217 0.201 0.410 0.477 0.153 0.337 0.397
Ivc) 0.003 0.059 0.007 0.075 0.003 0.039 0.117 0.154 0.003 0.011 0.062 0.119 0.004 0.061 0.033 0.046 0.032 0.116 0.027 0.039 0.047 0.085 0.229 0.284
0.057 0.142 0.082 0.052 0.036
0.163 0.111 0.166 0.057 0.047 0.138 0.097 0.070
Lampiran 5. Lanjubm Vuiable
Thoil Rmlati*r C h v P o r r c r m t Error S t a t i n t i c s M -mition -tiens i 1 aim. Di8t Var C w a r (R)
Eblativm C b q m I ldgt 6rr
U1
anpiran 6.Program Komputer dan Hasil Simulasi Kombinasi Peningkatan Program Dana Padat Karya 30 Persen, Program Dana Pembangunan 15 Persen, Konsumsi Kalori 20 Persen dan Investasi Sektoral 15 Persen Terhadap Model Keragaan Pasar Kerja dan M igrasi pada Periode Krisis Ekonom i di Indonesia. I
Program Komputer SASETS Versi 6-12 Prosedur STbNLIM dengan Metode Newton
O P T I m S PS-SO0 DATA GABUNG;
LS-240
m T E N-R
;
MERGE IN.8UPRI; m F =IF;
= = = =
AGT
WfiT + ARLT
;
AUPT + ARPT ; A t T + APT : m T + AUPT ; =WLTD+AUPTD; =AUL+AUP; =AT+A!ED; =JPVL+JPIU,; = m + J P U P : = J H J + J P R ;
APT AT W T AUTD
AU A
JPL JPV JP BLI KLF
= RxJLI + KRLI ; = KULF + KRLF ;
KLS KI Ks KUP BRP
= W + K R I S ;
fw
=KUL+RUP;
= LCLI + BPI ; = KLS + KPS ; = KUPI + KUPF + KUPS; = KRPI + KRPF + KRPS;
HJT
HfiD
= PULT + PUPT ; = RTLTD + PVPTD ;
PT PUL PRG P PR MDS
=pvT+PRT;
m
=bms+m;
AWL AH
-
= PULT + PULTD;
+
PRLTD; -Pr+PTD; =PRI+PRF+PRS; PRLT
Du LAULT WLVLTD LARLT LARLTD LaZlLI
= ARGT
ARTD
+ ARPT ; =ARLTD + ARPTD :
AR
=Ala+ARP;
JPP 5PR
=JPUP+JPRP; =J-FRL+JPRP;
KPI KPF KPS
= ECUPI + KRPI ; = KUPR + KRPF ; = KUPS + KRPS ;
KF
=KLF+LCPF; =KULI+KULF+KULS; = KRLI + aRLB + I5RL8 ; =RRlr+KRP; =RI+KF+KS; = FRLT + PRPT ; = PRLTD + PRFTD ; =mJTD+mtTD;
RUL BRL KR
a PRT PRTD
PTD PUP PRP W
PUPT + PUPTD; = PRPT + PRPTD; =
=PPf+m+uS; =MLR+MPR;
- m + A I P R L ;
AVOP
= m + A H R P :
=APPI.+AwP; =WWt+DwuP;
DWR
=DWRL+DWRP;
--
= D m + D w R ;
LAD(AULT) ; LAD(AULTD) ;
= LADIARLT) ;
= LAD (ARLTD)
;
=IAD(ICULf) ; =mD~EWLS) ;
-
; ;
LW(LS
LAD(mI.1) =LAD(KRU)
LPULT LPULTD LPRLT
ART
MRT
= LAD (KUPF)
F
=AUPTD+ARPTD; = ALTD + APTD ;
= PDRBI+PDRBF+PDRBS;
LKUf.S LKUPF m
=AlULTD +ARLTD ;
APTD AR3
PDRB
=MI,+-;
DwtJ
ALR)
;
= LAD(KRPF) ; = LADtWLT) ; LAD (PULTD) ; = XAD (PRLT) ;
LAUPT =LAD(AUPT) ; LAUPTD = LAD 1-( ; LAReT =LAD(ARPT) ; LARPTD = LAD(ARPTD) ; LaaLP = L A D { m L F ) ; LI(UPI = LAD(KuP1) ; LaVPS =m(KUPS) ; LKRLF = LADtItRLF) : 1 =lADIKRPI) ; -8 = LAD(BRpS) ; LHTPT =LAD(PUPT) ; LPfTPTD = LADIPUPTD) ; LPRPT = LAD(-) ;
LPRLTD LWI Lws
LPRF
LPRI
LPRS LPDRBI LPDRBS
m m s rn
LMT LAmuL LmRL
mwuL IDWRL IF D m - 0
THEN DELETE
;
TITLE 'SIMULWI -=I
PENXNmThN DANA PADAT KARYA 30%' PR0[3Rllld DANA m W N A N 1 5 % , KONSMSI KALQRI 20% DAN XHVESTASI SBRTORAL 15% TERHADAP mR&GAAN PASJLR KERJA DAN MIGRASI PADA PERIODE KRISIS E m DI INDONESIA' ;
S-
ALlLT
AUPT
ARLT
ALTD
APT
APTD
m
m
1
F
Pa1 -1 a a a u P K PULTD PUPTD PRTD PT PRF PRS MLR MPR A W L
mms
ARPT AT =I KPF
AWLTD AUPTD ARLTD ARPTD ATD KRLF
ALT
A
ECULI
KUIJ?
EXlX.S
BEcL8
RRPI KI
KRPF KF
m s
aLp aLs KP8 Ks R L K R P R U KR fC m L T PUPT m T PRPT PRLTD PRPTD PUT PRT PUTD PTD P W I W S W PRI PR PDRBI PDRBF PDRBS PDRB ML MP bDS MRT MI! AMULAHUP-AWRP m D w u L m M l R L T ] w R P m D # R
m;
INS-S
JmfLl JPUL2 rnl JPUP2 JHTL JPUP r n l m JPRPl JPRPP JPflI. JPRP ART ARTD TPALT TPAPT TPALTD TPAPTD I1 I F IS D A T f l D A T I P P 3 D T IDT D PD PK M JT azlz KUP KRL KRP -1 tffQtP KkM INF KK NPS DBK TPLU TPPU TPL TPPR mPLU TDPHJ TOPLR TDPPR CLRTU CLSm CPRTU CPSTU a T R C U T R CPRTR CPSTR PUL PUP PRL PRP DXRI m T R A D m DWESI D L A M I S J L T UWPT WLULTD LAETPTD IARLT LARPT LARLTD LARPTD LKULI WNLF LaZTLs IJNPI LKUPF LKUPS LECRLI L X R U LaRPI LKRPF LKRPS LPULT LPCWT LPULTD LPUPTD LPRLT LPRpT LPRLTD LPRPTI) LWI LBB LWS LPRI LPRF LPRS -RBI LPDRBF LPDRBS I l Q . I H P I H L R l l d P R ~ L A W U P L A W R L I A m P m m J L ~ ~ -;
a2 a5 a8 all
-2535.816894 -0.217585 -59360 -653.924638
b2
-1666.849049 -0.024422 b8 -7453.475080 bll -11007 b5
g2 g5 g8 gll
-15600 -0.716942 -231025 -20258
-558.691545 -0.360974 h8 -42260 hll -9520.403081 h2 h5
i2 i5 i8 ill
0.002723 -0.238224 -149275 16024
0.002214 -0.371922 j8 -96435 jll -9863.662483 j2 j5
k2 k5 k0 kll 12 15
0.054740 -0.901875 -159217 0.269950 0.000479 -0.010574
n2
0.003368
n5 -1.069135 n8 -217644 nll 0.252368 05
0.001715 -0.179456
08
-0.479360
02
011 -171143 014 -136628
p2 p5 p8 pll p14
0.015730
r2
0.000701 -0.021131 -0.102782 -119560 -05126
r5 r8 rll tl4
-0.080254 -8.927909
-360460
-334108
t2 t5 t8 tll
0.009682 2.443668
t14
-14297
0.001790
-149760
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
aal -4
aa7 abl ab4 sb7
acl ac4 ac7 aclO 8c13
aa2 -10509 aa5 -7079.543806 aa8
128076 -13142 -1166.151099
32503 -24947 -22791
158375 -30726 -1049.406501
24775
0.391498 -0.000645 -660.336213 22061
ab2 ab5
ab8
1.913753 -0.063553 34144 a c l l 22099
a d
ac5 ac8
0.106894
0.292471 -0.004661 ad7 -375.872593 ad10 2816.790977 ad13 0.095280
ad2
ael
ae2
ad1
ad4
0.420135 u 4 -0.012427 am7 -1486.082316 aelO 13537 ae13 0.049764 a f l 0.000061566 af4 7.139109 a -11.909209 aflO-4.934407 a g l 0.000009993 agd 1.156229 ag7 0.757637 agio 0.408207 ah1 0.000006421 ah4 0.258303 ah7 3.282803 ah10 1.932958 a i l 87907 ai4 -4201571 a i 7 -2367812
ajl
735591
0.694748 ad5 -0.000176 ad8 15058 ad11 8791.965113
2.274900 am5 -0.037650 am8 32031 a011 22740
af2 0.014067 a f 5 0.000000816 af8 -11.219842 afll0.617619 ag2 0.001235 ag5 ag8
3.9049884E-B
0.187198 0.241655 0.002061 4.3676613-8
agll ah2 ah5 ah8 ah11 ai2
0.328750 18.556512
si5
-3866565
ri8
-3472928
aj2
0.452932
1.464072
akl ak4 ak7
all a14 a17 all0 a113 an1 am4 an7 am10 ad3 an1 and
an7 an10 an13 a01 a04 a07
a010 a013 apl ap4 ap7 apl0 1 aqd aq7 aql0 arl ar4 ar7
arlO
a ar4 ax7
arlO as1 as4 as7
as10 at1 at4
at7 at10 aul aud au7 ad0
avl
660861 -2991773 -2737908
ak2
0.000006117 -0.000000483 0.132882 -5.839992 0.436965 0.000007244 -0.000000420 0.022439 -6.321718 0.059973 -0.000004983 -0.000005245 -0.081329 -3.203702 -0.504183 -0.000002124 -0.000001633 -0.000804 -3.102229 -0.793980 0.000759 0.663270 -7057.047232 0.094266 0.010916
a12 a15 a18 all1 a114 am2
0.664497
ak5 aka
ad5
am8 am11 am14
an2 an5
an8 an11 an14 a02 roS a08 a011 a014 ap2 ap5 ap8 aq2
aq5 -6834.665569 ap8 0.001431 0.018843 ar2 1.233185 ar5 -9149.818961 ar8 0.079628 0.017826 ir2 1.220580 ar5 -5617.410856 ar8 0.081669 -0.001137 as2 -0.000093254 as5 -6190.637703 a88 0.063684 -0.001137 at2 -0.000093254 at5 -6190.637703 a t 8 0.063684 -0.015545 au2 -0.003632 au5 -4941.732526 au8 0.174505 -0.002421 av2
4.145966 -1444327 -1274734 -0.000003884 -0.089874 0.252646 -6.570456 0.483619 -0.000007876 -0.006121 0.156527 -6.548363 0.508040 0.000022723 0.186684 -0,088439 -3.526045 0.296487 0.000016258 0.060164 -0.106618 -3.477208 0.667679
-150.070186 -5071.080991 -1323.024791 -9.075030 -7697.720406 -16424 -202.514567 -4 638.124761 -6463.584039 -239.649117 -1101.747535 -2169.204113 0.212701 -6043.116060 -8560.298893 0.212701 -6043.116060 -8560.298893 0.480015 -6078.135354 -1256.053728 0.506132
av3 av6 av9 awO
35.973051
an3
35.973051
aw6 an9
-7252.647309
-7252.647309 -1202.473222 44378
-1202.473222
av4 -0.004998 av7 -17034 av10 0.269094 awl -0.002421 aw4 -0.004990 a w 7 -17034 awl0 0.269094;
av5 avB
-17104 -11964
aw2 ow5 aw8
0.586132
-17104 -11964
a0+al*~+a2*~a3*~+a4*~~1~~l+a5*~+a6*~T/(~JPRt)+a7*~+
AULT
r
AUPT
a8*~+a9*~8f+alO*DLAM+all*DKRl+al2*LAITLT; = bO+bl~+b2%P+b3+MPR+b4f J U J P ~ + ~ S + J P U P ~ + ~ ~ * (JPUP+JPRP) APT/ +b7*-+
ARtT
= c 0 + c l * ~ ~ + c 2 ~ c 3 ~ + ~ 4 * ~ + c 5 ~ ~ + ~ 6 * ~ / ( ~ ~ ) + c 7 * ~ T
ARPT
= do+dl*WF+d2+MP+d3tMPR+dd* J P R P ~ + ~ ~ * J P R P ~ + ~ ~ * (JPUP+JPRP) AFT/ +d7*mTRA+ ~ * D $ B W T A N + ~ ~ ~ ~ S I + ~ ~ O * D ~ ~ ~ ~ * D K R I + ~ ~ ~ * L A R ~ T :
AIJLTD
= ~ O + ~ ~ * ~ ~ ~ * M L + ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ * J H ~ ~ + & * J P U L ~ ~ ~ * ~ T D / ( J P U L + J P R L ) + ~ ~ ~
AlTPTD
= ~O+~~*W+~~~~~*MPR+~~*JPUP~+~~*JPUP~+~~*APTD/~JPRP)+~
bs*~~9*mSI+blO~bll*DKRI+bl2*LAUPT; ~ ~ * ~ ~ ~ * ~ ~ I + c I O * D ~ ~ ~ ~ * D P ( R I + C ~ ~ * L A B ~ T ;
~ B * ~ ~ ~ + M I E ~ I ~ ~ O * D ~ O ~ ~ * D K R I + ~ ~ ~ + ~ T D ;
fB * ~ + f 9 * ~ 8 I + f l O * D llfDKRI+f ~ + f l2*-; m T D = p 0 + g l * ~ 2 ~ 3 ~ ~ 4 * ~ + g 5 * ~ I-)+ g 6 * ~+97 ~ *=TRA m / ~ ~ + Q ~ ~ S I + Q ~ O * D ~ ~ ~ * ~ + Q ~ ~ * L A R ~ ' R ) ; ARPTD
h C H h l * w p + h 2 * ~ ~ + h 3 ~ + h 4 * ~ ~ ~ ~ l + h 5 * ~ + h(JPUFcJFRPl 6 * A P T D +/ h 7 * m T R A +hB*~+h9*DWESI+hlO~+hll*DKRI+hl2*LARPTD;
i
IWLI
= iO+il*IPI+i2*II+i3*PDRBI+i4*~iSfD~+i6*DATIl+i7*~~+i0*~+ i9*~SI+ilO*~ill*DPCRI+i12*L[WLI;
Kt)LF
= JO+~~*~~~~IHCFIB+~~*HIRBF+~~*~+~~*DAE+~~*DATI~+~~*DWA
KOLS EWFI
KUFF
KUPS KRLI KRIS
aRLB WlPI
KRPF KRPS
+j9*WIESI+j10*D~+jlltDKRf+j12+LIILILF; = kO+klWS+k2*I8+k3*AlI1B8+k4*RATIl+k5fDKE+k6*~+k7*~+kB*IIWESI +k9+DIAIN+k10fDKRI+k11t~; = 10+llfWI+12*II+13*PDRBI+14*~15*DKg+16*~TI1+17tDHRTRA+18*~+
-
19*~SI+110fD~~+111*~+112*LKUPI; r0+11*~~*INVIF+r3tH)~~4*~*D~+m6*MTIl+r7*~+m8* 1 9 * ~ 8 I + r l O * I ) ~ r l l * D K R I + I 1 IKUPF; 2~ nO+nl*~+n2+IS+n3*AlRBS+n4*LIATIl+nS*D~+n6*~TRA+n7*~+n8*DWPSI +n9*DIAIN+nlO*DI(RI+n1l*IsmeS; = &olfvT+o2fII+o3*~I+d*P3DI+o5~6~2~7+~*DIIg+o9*I13T+ 0 1 O * ~ + o l l r I b P I T R k M 1 2 ~ 1 3 * ~ I + o l 4 ~ l 5 * D I (ol6*RI+ ; g O + p l * ~ Z * M F + p 3 * ~ + + P ~ * J T + p d * M T I 2 ~ p ~ ~ ~ O * X + P ~ ~ * ~ + P ~ ~ * ~ A N + P ~ ~ * ~ S I + P pl6*IXRLB; ~ ~ * D L A W + P ~ ~ * D ~ = qO+ql~~*IS+83*PDEtBg+q4*P~*NI2~*DKE~*PD+QBfmT+qO*PK+ qlO*~+4ll*~AN+~12*WIESI+ql3*D~14+DKRf+ql5*~; = r0+rl*~+r2*II+r3*HIRgf+r4*P3DT+r5*~r6*nAT12+r7*H)+rS*~+r9*IDT+ r10*PR+rll*~TRA+rl2*~rl3*~SI+rl4*D+rl5*DKRf+rl6*LICRPI;
5
= ~ O + S I * ~ C F + S ~ * ~ F + ~ ~ * ~ + S ~ * P + s l O * P I C + 6 l l ~ + s l 2 * ~ s l 3 + W ; = t0+tlflls+t2*IS+t3*PDRBS+td*P3Dr+t5*MTI2+t6*DKg+t7*~t8*fDWt9*PK+
~
~
~
*
;
F
~O*DHATRA+tll*~+tl2*WlgSI+tl3*~+tl4*DKRI+tl5*LKRPS; PULT
= ~ O + ~ ~ ~ * ~ ~ ~ ~ A U I . ' N ~ ~ * ~ + ~ ~ * D H A T R A + ~ ~ * ~ + U ~ * ~ S I + ~ ~ dfDKRf+u9*LPULT ;
PUPT
=~ O + V ~ ~ ~ ~ R U P + ~ ~ * ~ + V ~ ~ K U P * ~ ~ * ~ T R A + ~ ~ * ~ + V ~ * ~ S I +
v8*DKRI+vg*LPUPT; PCnTD = r O + w l * ~ / ~ * M f l . ~ + w 3 4 ~ 4 * - ~ 5 *+W~*DLAIH+ ~ ~ 8 1 rB-+w9*LHJLTD;
PUPTD = xO+xl ~ ~ * ~ ~ ~ * K [ J P + x ~ * ~ T R A ++x7*DLAIN+ * ~ * ~ + * ~ * ~ S I ~a*mmI+~g*LpupTD; FRLT = yO+yl* m y 2 * A R L T + Y ~ * ~ Y I * ~ ~ + * ~ + Y ~ * ~ S I + ~ ~ * D ~ PRPT
y8*DKRI+yO*lJ?RLT ; = ~O+~~*~/M+Z~*ARPT/ART+%~*KRP+Z~*D~QSTRA+Z~*~+%~*DO~ES~+
%7*DIAIN+z8*DKRI+%9*-; PRLTD = a a O + a a l t ~ / R 1 P + & * ~ T D / ~ a a 3 * ~ a a 4 * ~ T R A + & * ~ +
M ~ * ~ S X + ~ ~ ~ Q ~ + ~ ~ ~ * D I S R I + ~ ~ ~ * L P R ~ T D :
ALT
APT AT
= AULT = AmT
+
ARLT
m T D ;
+ aRLI
= KUPI + -1 ; = KUPF + KRPF ; = m s + mPS ;
= ALT + = AT +
KLI
= KULI
KLF
=KULF+KRLF
BLS KI
= KULS + = ICLI + EEPI
Ks
=KLS+xPs;
KUP
= IWPI + m e = KRPI + KRPF -BRL+mP;
KR
+
= AUPTD + ARPTD ; = ALTD + APTD ;
ARPT APT ; ATD ;
A
KRR
= ALTLR)
+
;
=KLF+KPF;
= KULI + aZJLF + KULS ; =mLI+ECRLF+KRG8; = m + K U P : =KI+KE'+Ks;
Lampiran 6 . Lanjutan. 2. Hasil Simulasi Kombinasi Peningkatan Program Dana Padat Kmya 30 Persen, Program Dana Fernbangunan 15 Persen, Konsumsi Kalori 20 Persen dan Lnvestasi Sektoral 15 Persen Terhadap Keragaan Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi pada Peride Krisis Ekonomi di
Indonesia DASAR RERAGAAN P
S-I
m m R J A DAN HI-I DI INWNESZA
Mods1 Variables Endogsnous Paramators Equations
PADA PEXIODE
KRIBIS EKONOMI
91 91 616 91
SImLIN Procedure Simultansoue Simulation
Dataset Option DATA= OUT=
Variables S o l d Solution h t h o d
Dataaet GABUNG M I L
91 NEPPTON
1E-8 Hbxilrum CC 3.094143-9 -mum Iterations 3 Total Iterationm 224 Average Itaratione 2.95 CONVERGE-
Obeemationa Processed Read 76 Solved 76
Variables Solvod For
:
AULT
AUPT
ARLT
APTD
AT
ATD
KRLF aRtS KRPI E C F K S m L PULm PUPTD PRtT
P
W I
WP
PDRBS PDRB ML A#RLAmPAwL
AVLTD AUPTD ARGTD ARPTD INLI ams KuLs auPI KRPS KLI KPI KLF KRL KRP KU KR PRLm PRPTD PUT PRT a P R I P R F P R S P
ALT
AFT
KUPF KE'F
XRLI BPS PUPT
Kx
PT
PTD
mTD R
PDRBF
M L R M P R W ) S M K T M T
ATWP
m
MIR
m m D W R L D w R P
m;
Lam piran 6. Lanjutan SIMLIN P d u r a
Simultaneous Simulation Statistics 1
Variable AULT AVPT
ARLT
Nobs
76 76 76 76
N 76 76 76
76
76 76
76 76 76 76 76
76 76 76 76 76
76 76
76 76
aZJLI KULF
76 76 76 76 76
76 76 76 76 76
KULs
76
76
-1 KUPF
76 76
KUPS KRGI
76
76
76 76 76
KRLT
76 76 76 76
76 76 76 76
76 76
76
76
76 76 76
ARPT AmTD AUPTD ARLTD ARPTD
ALT ALR3 APT APTD
AT ATD A
aRLS aRPI
KRPF KRPS
=I BPI KLF KPF
76 76
KLS KPS
m
76 76 76 76
88
76
KUL KUP
76 76 76
KI
KRL
KRP
Ka
76 76
KR K mTLT
76 76 76
PtrPT
76 76 76 76 76 76
PULTD PUPTD PRLT
PRPT PRLTD
76
76
76 76 76
76 76 76 76 76 76 76
76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76
Std
480212 232380 190859 79691 751439 470331 1682053 1130912 653917 2405911 303368 1588041
953850 3971156 4895878 327589 125252 674804 157630 57700 423764 364032 966577 512695 197546 646891 333818 683482 346691 1083367 699743 1180280 750665 1022793 1778333 1904760 1111333 632016 1802401 1160200 1730624 2949199 4614985 71662 44489 49375 25151
24144 14902 50574
Prdictd
Haan
Std
1
9097434 AVLT 10144055 816127 AUPT 13790 5360134 ARLT 3962231 756177 ARPT 40258 53738255 AVLTD 13586064 11755502 AUPTD 1245782 6135428 276650912 ARLTD 1357117 69673051 ARPTD 13530910 ALT 14662292 22018168 327244242 a m 1568304 APT 26942 104706 81426201 APTD 13550760 AT 15717646 23775653 334356773 ATD 46742629 324019477 A 336037 -1 993776 549812 97079 KULF 139328 728666 KULS 476795 158984 KUPI 253073 47486 KUPF 634249 dl4018 KUPS 367565 KRLI 423205 1081581 aRLF 2657797 66796 957463 mils 301057 282789 =I 727529 KRPF 1997390 309438 452637 KRPS 1809676 695157 909792 437192 3558193 1149981 2446902 750742 226092 1643013 1018917 822504 3751549 1126396 ax 7025778 1088415 m? 2427561 Ks 1457544 2399012 1073913 KUL 1796197 604292 KUP 3799454 2073225 W(L 1329912 KRP 3047005 6089279 1659944 KU 8420888 3378186 KR 4872767 K 24500042 1557695 1918563 PULT 35202 211916 PUPT 148297 1623158 H n T D 60473 159176 PUPTD 427639 634407 PRLT 11074 194509 PRPT 20431 16042596 PRLTD
Variable
Lab1
PRPTD HJT
PRPTD POT PRT
PRT PUTD PRTD Pr
WTD
P
PRTD PT PTD P
PPf
W I
WF
WF
IS
ws
w
1
PRI
PRI PRF PRS PR
PTD
PRF pRg
PR -RBI HI-
mIRB1 HlRBF PDRBS
WRBS WRe
PDRB
ML MP MLR MPR
ha4
MDS
ms
HKT HT
m
MP MY.,R
MPR
APRlL A#UP
APPflt
AWRP APsL
AWP Aw
m rn DWRL
DWR??
WW DWR
nw &a of B i t
m
-
0 Error
Illgl%
13801
17603 1730 7376 1557 38381 17456
660.78956
6030 534.53725 24334 3405 6736 3077 9852
Error
21693
14273 1203%
Lampiran 6. Lanj m8n
$
Error
St.timtia8 of F i t Variablm
IP
Wua
HDan*
Error
mxoz
#..nab. ex-
mil m-t m Vrriablm
1P
m
Carr (R)
Bia8
ma
M Error
rtror
Error Statistiam -&ition Proportiarm llrp IUR)
D h t
(m)
V.E
cvs)
C w e
(vc)
IIICB %
trror
f d i t g Carf V1 U
mil so-.+ Vstiablm
Vairblm
?4
&rr (R)
PrMr S a t i a t i c u
laW -.ition Bias IIlg
0
(mRI)
Wil EIllative Charrg. tRdativr Ch.apl -.ition I Cprx 1 . Reg (II) I# (-1
~roportioru Dist 1
Var
(US)
I-iQ
Cevar
Ul
C w f U
Sn
Casf U
(UC)
Srtor B t a t i s t i c m Dimt
Proportions VIF Covar
(Us)
(oc)
Z-itg
