DAFTAR ISI Halaman HALAMAN JUDUL............................................................................... i HALAMAN PENGESAHAN .................................................................
ii
HALAMAN PERNYATAAN ................................................................
iii
PRAKATA ..............................................................................................
iv
DAFTAR ISI ...........................................................................................
vii
DAFTAR TABEL ...................................................................................
ix
DAFTAR GAMBAR ..............................................................................
x
DAFTAR PERSAMAAN .......................................................................
xi
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN ...........................................................................
xii
INTISARI................................................................................................
xiii
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................
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BAB I
1 1 7 8 8 8 9 9
PENDAHULUAN ................................................................... 1.1 Latar Belakang Masalah.............................................. 1.2 Keaslian Penelitian ...................................................... 1.3 Rumusan Masalah ....................................................... 1.4 Pertanyaan Penelitian .................................................. 1.5 Tujuan Penelitian ........................................................ 1.6 Manfaat Penelitian ...................................................... 1.7 Sistematika Penulisan .................................................
BAB II LANDASAN TEORI .............................................................. 2.1 Definisi Penilaian Usaha ............................................. 2.2 Penilaian Usaha Bidang Pertambangan ...................... 2.3 Pengertian Nilai Pasar Wajar ...................................... 2.4 Pengertian Divestasi Saham ........................................ 2.5 Tahapan dalam Proses Penilaian Usaha ...................... 2.6 Pendekatan Penilaian dalam Penilaian Usaha ............. 2.6.1 Pendekatan Pendapatan (Income Approach) .. 2.6.2 Pendekatan Pasar (Market Approach) ............ 2.6.3 Pendekatan Aset (Asset Based Approach) ...... 2.6.3.1 Adjusted Book Value Method .......... 2.6.3.2 Excess Earning Method .................. 2.7 Rekonsiliasi dan Penyajian Kesimpulan Penilaian ..... 2.8 Analisis Sensitivitas ....................................................
10 10 11 13 14 14 16 16 19 20 20 21 21 22
BAB III METODE PENILAIAN .......................................................... 3.1 Jenis dan Sumber Data ................................................ 3.2 Analisis Laporan Keuangan ........................................ 3.3 Analisis Rasio Keuangan ............................................
23 23 23 24
vii
3.4
Pendekatan dan Metode Penilaian .............................. 3.4.1 Metode Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) ........... 3.4.2 Metode Adjusted Book Value (ABV) ............. Rekonsiliasi Nilai ........................................................ Analisis Sensitivitas .................................................... Asumsi-asumsi dan Kondisi Pembatas .......................
29 29 33 35 36 36
BAB IV ANALISIS ............................................................................... 4.1 Analisis Laporan Keuangan ........................................ 4.1.1 Analisis Laba Rugi ......................................... 4.1.2 Analisis Neraca ............................................... 4.1.3 Analisis Rasio Keuangan ................................ 4.1.3.1 Rasio Likuiditas .................................. 4.1.3.2 Rasio Aktivitas ................................... 4.1.3.3 Rasio Solvabilitas ............................... 4.1.3.4 Rasio Profitabilitas ............................. 4.2 Penentuan Cost of Equity ............................................ 4.3 Penentuan Discount Factor......................................... 4.4 Hasil Penilaian dengan Metode DCF .......................... 4.5 Hasil Penilaian dengan Metode ABV ......................... 4.6 Rekonsiliasi Nilai ........................................................ 4.7 Analisis Sensitivitas ....................................................
37 37 37 41 42 42 43 43 43 44 45 45 46 46 47
BAB V SIMPULAN DAN SARAN .................................................... 5.1 Simpulan ..................................................................... 5.2 Implikasi...................................................................... 5.3 Keterbatasan ................................................................ 5.4 Saran ...........................................................................
51 51 52 52 52
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
.....................................................................
53
LAMPIRAN
.....................................................................
56
3.5 3.6 3.7
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DAFTAR TABEL Halaman Tabel 1.1 Produksi Batu Bara (PKP2B & BUMN) Penjualan Luar Negeri dan Penjualan Dalam Negeri ....................................
2
Tabel 1.2 Rekapitulasi Informasi Harga Batu Bara, 2009–2014 .........
4
Tabel 1.3 Financial Historical Income Statement, 2011–2013 ...........
5
Tabel 4.1 Analisis Vertikal dan Horizontal Laba Kotor .......................
37
Tabel 4.2 Analisis Vertikal dan Horizontal Laba Sebelum Pajak ........
39
Tabel 4.3 Analisis Vertikal dan Horizontal Laba Bersih .....................
40
Tabel 4.4 Analisis Neraca.....................................................................
41
Tabel 4.5 Rasio Keuangan PT. X Historikal ........................................
42
Tabel 4.6 Beta Ratio .............................................................................
44
Tabel 4.7 Cost of Equity .......................................................................
44
Tabel 4.8 Discount Factor....................................................................
45
Tabel 4.9 Indikasi Nilai Pasar Ekuitas (DCF) ......................................
45
Tabel 4.10 Indikasi Nilai Pasar Ekuitas (ABV) .....................................
46
Tabel 4.11 Rekonsiliasi Nilai .................................................................
47
Tabel 4.12 Analisis Sensitivitas Nilai Pasar Wajar Saham Terhadap Harga Batu Bara Acuan........................................................
48
Tabel 4.13 Analisis Sensitivitas Nilai Pasar Wajar Saham Terhadap Pertumbuhan Penjualan ........................................................
49
ix
DAFTAR GAMBAR Halaman Gambar 1.1 Grafik Tren Produksi Batu Bara (PKP2B & BUMN), Penjualan Luar Negeri dan Penjualan Dalam Negeri (USD) 2004–2014....................................................................
3
Gambar 1.2 Grafik Tren Harga Batu Bara Acuan 2009–2014 ...................
4
Gambar 4.1 Grafik Analisis Vertikal dan Horizontal Laba Kotor ..............
36
Gambar 4.2 Grafik Analisis Vertikal dan Horizontal Laba Sebelum Pajak
39
Gambar 4.3 Grafik Analisis Vertikal dan Horizontal Laba Bersih ............
40
Gambar 4.4 Grafik Analisis Rasio Profitabilitas ........................................
43
x
DAFTAR PERSAMAAN
Persamaan 3.1
Halaman Current Ratio .............................................................. 25
Persamaan 3.2
Quick Ratio .................................................................
25
Persamaan 3.3
Cash Ratio ..................................................................
25
Persamaan 3.4
Receivable Turnover ...................................................
26
Persamaan 3.5
Payable Turnover........................................................
26
Persamaan 3.6
Inventory Turnover (at cost) .......................................
26
Persamaan 3.7
Total Assets Turnover .................................................
27
Persamaan 3.8
Total Debt to Total Asset Ratio ...................................
27
Persamaan 3.9
Total Debt to Equity Ratio ..........................................
27
Persamaan 3.10 Gross Profit Margin....................................................
28
Persamaan 3.11 Net Profit Margin........................................................
28
Persamaan 3.12 Return on Asset ...........................................................
28
Persamaan 3.13 Return on Equity .........................................................
28
Persamaan 3.14 Value (DCF) ................................................................
29
Persamaan 3.15 Present Value (DCF) ..................................................
30
Persamaan 3.16 Tingkat Pengembalian ................................................
31
Persamaan 3.17 Biaya Ekuitas ..............................................................
31
Persamaan 3.18 Model Regresi Linier ..................................................
32
Persamaan 3.19 Biaya Hutang ..............................................................
32
Persamaan 3.20 Weighted Average Cost of Capital..............................
33
xi
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN Halaman Lampiran 1 Laporan Neraca ...................................................................... 56 Lampiran 2 Laporan Laba Rugi .................................................................
57
Lampiran 3 Analisis Rasio Keuangan ........................................................
58
Lampiran 4 Asumsi-asumsi Tambang Open-pit ........................................
59
Lampiran 5 Aset Tetap dan Depresiasi ......................................................
60
Lampiran 6 Proyeksi Laba Rugi .................................................................
61
Lampiran 7 Proyeksi Neraca ......................................................................
62
Lampiran 8 Proyeksi Arus Kas ..................................................................
63
Lampiran 9 Free Cash Flow to Firm .........................................................
64
Lampiran 10 Cost of Equity dan Discount Factor ......................................
65
Lampiran 11 Jurnal Penyesuaian ................................................................
66
Lampiran 12 Rekonsiliasi Nilai Pasar Wajar Saham ..................................
67
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