Berly Martawardaya (FEUI) Disampaikan pada Diskusi IESR Jakarta, 23 September 2015
horizontal axis and economic growth on the vertical axis. Conspicuously high in growth and low in natural resources are China and some other Asian countries. Conspicuously high in natural resources and low in growth are Venezuela and Zambia. The overall relationship on average is slightly negative. The negative correlation is not very strong, masking almost as many resource successes as failures. But it certainly suggests no positive correlation between natural resource wealth and economic growth.
Negara yang kaya sumber daya alam justru rendah pertumbuhan ekonomi, lemah industrialisasi dan rawan konflik (Sach & Figure 1: Statistical relationship between mineral exports and growth. Warner 2001, Frankel 2010)
Figure 3: Shares of Mining Commodities in Exports and of Mining Gross Value Added in GDP, 1870-2010 (percentages)
Notes: No data 1942-45 for foreign trade and 1942-48 for GDP. Van der Eng (2010) only
Figure 4: Share of Tax and Non-Tax Income from Mining in Total Central Government Revenue and in Gross Value Added from Mining, 1870-2010 (percentages)
Notes: No data for 1942-47. 1870-1940 comprises net government income from tin, coal, gold and silver mining, revenues from mining concessions, dividends from NIAM and
Apakah Indonesia Negara Kaya Migas? World Proven Gas Reserves
2012 © SKMIGAS – All rights reserved
World Proven Oil Reserves Venezuela Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait United Arab… Russian Federation Libya US Nigeria Kazakhstan Qatar China Brazil Angola Algeria Mexico Norway Ecuador Azerbaijan India Oman Vietnam Australia Egypt Indonesia Other Africa Malaysia Others
0
Iran Russian Federation Qatar Turkmenistan US Saudi Arabia United Arab… Venezuela Nigeria Algeria Australia Iraq China Indonesia Norway Canada Egypt Kuwait Libya Kazakhstan India Other Africa Malaysia Uzbekistan Oman Azerbaijan Netherlands Pakistan Ukraine Vietnam Others
Total world oil reserves Des2013: 1684 billion barrel
Indonesia bukan negara kaya minyak…… Indonesia’s proven oil reserve: 3.6 BBO is rank #27, only 0.2% of total world 50
100
150
200
250
(Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014)
300
MMMBO
0
Total world gas reserves Des2013: 6558 TCF
Indonesia’s gas reserve: 100 TCF is rank #14, only 1.5% of total world
… dan bukan negara kaya gas……
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
TCF 5
Produksi dan Konsumsi Minyak Indonesia
2012 © SKMIGAS – All rights reserved
Bauran energi primer nasional dalam Juta BOE (Dewan Energi Nasional)
Gap produksi-konsumsi yang makin melebar setelah Indonesia menjadi net importer minyak pada tahun 2004
Migas masih mendominasi bauran energi primer nasional sampai 20 tahun mendatang
Cadangan minyak habis 18 tahun lagi: Perlu mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap energi berbasis minyak bumi (konservasi, efisiensi, diversifikasi).
6
Pendapatan Migas (triliun rupiah)
250
200 52.2
61.1
68.3
77.7
150 40.9
Gas Minyak
100
141.3 50
0
144.7
111.8
2010
2011
2012
135.3
2013
139.1
2014
19.8
18.5
61.6
66.3
2015
2016
Studi Empiris Berly Martawardaya, Triyono Basuku & M.Fadli Hanafi Data 415 kabupaten dan 93 kota Tahun 2006-2012 Panel data dan Granger Causality
DBH-APBD Ratio and Economic Indicators (Municipal/ District)
Granger Causality DBH-SDA Percapita (20 % richest) GDP
HDI
Significant + Significant Insignificant
Poverty
DBH-SDA Percapita
APBD Tax
BPK
Person nel Exp
Variable gdp_percapita_constant1
Semua Coefficient P-Value Sig -0.002 0.393
gdp_agriculture_ratio
-0.065
gdp_manufacture_ratio gdp_mining_ratio gdp_service_financial_ratio
-0.086 0.116 -0.105
gdp_service_others_ratio
-0.147
0.073 * 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 ***
0.000 ***
Sangat Kaya Coefficient P-Value Sig 0.019 0.011 **
-0.591 -0.009 -0.009 0.164
-0.437
fdi_current fdi_current1 ddi_local_currrent ddi_local_currrent1 hdi_growth apbd_current pad_current tax_current silpa_current pov
-0.001 -0.001
0.130 0.168
-0.001 0.010 0.032 -0.035 0.000 0.033
sda_apbd
0.001
elect jsec_enr senr_enr bpk1 agr_exp_ratio_current inf_exp_ratio_current edu_exp_ratio_current health_exp_ratio_current soc_exp_ratio_current personel_exp_ratio_current capital_exp_ratio_current economic_exp_ratio admin_exp_ratio goods_service_exp_ratio housing_exp_ratio public_law_order_exp_ratio tourism_culture_ratio pop d_2006 d_2007 d_2008 d_2009 d_2010 d_2011 d_2012 _cons
0.080 -0.093 0.054 0.004 0.007
0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.029 ** 0.583 0.206
0.065 0.090 0.006
-0.054
0.008 ***
0.024 -0.002
F - Stat
0.000 ***
Cukup Kaya
Coefficient P-Value Sig -0.003 0.663
-0.867
0.000 ***
-0.424 -0.134 0.024 -0.199
0.007 *** 0.012 ** 0.165 0.008 ***
0.153 0.539 0.639 0.723 0.502 0.024 ** 0.000 ***
-0.024
0.685
0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.044 0.040
0.543 0.451 0.389 0.000 *** 0.000 ***
0.385 -0.001 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.012 0.010
0.001 *** 0.178 0.651 0.111 0.007 *** 0.283 0.238
0.000 *** 0.378 0.189
-0.044 0.001 0.033
0.000 *** 0.650 0.078 *
-0.011 -0.002
-0.003
0.020 ** 0.742 0.040 *
0.000 ***
0.089 0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.018 0.021
0.061 * 0.065 * 0.000 ***
0.000
0.744
0.045
0.000 ***
0.000 *** 0.639 0.028 **
-0.051
0.000 ***
-0.013
0.360
-0.019 -0.002 0.034
-0.018
0.158
0.004
Coefficient P-Value Sig 0.003 0.525
0.387 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 ***
-0.043 0.010 0.082
0.429 0.150
Coefficient P-Value Sig -0.011 0.024 **
Kurang Kaya
0.094 -0.108 0.100 -0.153
0.777 0.540 0.005 ***
-0.001 -0.001
0.747
Kaya
0.496
0.007
0.206
Tidak Kaya Coefficien t P-Value Sig 0.004 0.445 0.198 -0.056 0.057 -0.124
0.021 ** 0.281 0.228 0.037 **
-0.003 -0.001
0.079 * 0.476
-0.001 -0.016 0.127
0.637 0.214 0.000 ***
0.242 0.484
-0.157
0.000 ***
0.511
0.003
0.072
0.068 * 0.000 *** 0.547
0.034 -0.062 0.057 0.004 0.004
0.219 0.110 0.078 * 0.774 0.611
0.121 -0.094 0.088 -0.026 0.005
0.003 *** 0.173 0.123 0.109 0.610
-0.041 -0.119 0.143 0.016
0.482 0.002 *** 0.012 ** 0.272
-0.084
0.060 *
-0.091
0.008 ***
-0.012
0.764
-0.053
0.123
0.086 * 0.328
0.034 -0.002
0.233 0.696
0.046 0.005
0.036 ** 0.225
0.013
0.690
0.051 0.002
0.019 ** 0.612
-0.090 -0.012
0.029 ** 0.030 **
1.230
0.000 ***
0.074 0.150 0.151 0.181 0.283 -0.713
0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 ***
1.318 -0.218 -0.168 -0.129 -0.083
0.000 *** 0.002 *** 0.009 *** 0.029 ** 0.156
0.000 *** 0.142 0.163 0.416 0.675 0.562 0.416
1.208 -0.129 -0.203 -0.079
0.000 *** 0.081 * 0.000 *** 0.042 **
0.690
1.289 -0.146 -0.128 -0.070 -0.035 -0.045 -0.062
-0.092 -0.040
0.083 * 0.448
1.239 -0.375 -0.337 -0.210 -0.166 -0.090 -0.077
0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.003 *** 0.032 ** 0.055 *
1.218 -0.500 -0.479 -0.475 -0.410 -0.353 -0.268
0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.000 *** 0.002 *** 0.014 **
0.000 ***
-1.505
0.000 ***
-0.299
0.005 ***
-0.521
0.003 ***
0.373
0.028 **
7503.840
0.013 -2.654 989.580
1324.980
3508.990
1784.020
0.112 -0.254 0.158 0.017 0.011
0.058 *
0.490
0.081
1971.360
0.224 0.019 ** 0.026 ** 0.382 0.392
0.306
Langkah Strategis Siap hadapi era harga migas rendah Kelola penerimaan migas untuk naikkan long term growth non-migas, khususnya human capital dan diversifikasi pendapatan. Siapkan natural resource fund Naikkan produksi dan penerimaan migas Perpendek perijinan (PSC Posterior & Lex Specialis?) Tunda pajak operasional migas hingga produksi
Gabungkan SKK Migas ke Pertamina (ala Petronas) Dorong ekspansi Pertamina ke luar negri Bentuk BUMN Holding Energi (Pertamina, PGN, PLN plus Geothermal)
Produce More & Use it Better
