1
Peneliti Ekonomi di Grup Riset Ekonomi–Departemen Riset Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter (DKM), Bank Indonesia. Pandangan dalam paper ini merupakan pandangan penulis dan tidak semata-mata mencerminkan pandangan DKM atau Bank Indonesia.
2
3
4
5
6
TR(q) p(q).q AR (q)
TR(q) p(q).q p(q) q q
MR(q)
dTR(q) dq
7
8
d dR dC ' (q) 0 dq dq dq
dR dC dq dq
MR d 2 dq 2
dR dC MC dq dq q q*
d ' (q) dq
0 q q*
9
10
11
12
13
≤ ≤
≤ ≤
μ
β
14
γ β
β
β ≠β β
β
β
β
15
γ
γ
β
γ
γ
η
η
η
γ
16
γ
β
γ
β
17
γ
(i)
18
γ γ θ
β
α
β
θ
αЄ
γ
γ
γ
∞ ∞
∞
α
γ
γ
γ
θ
α
γ
∞ γ
γ
∞
∞
β
β
∞ β
β
19
γ (ii) γ γ γ γ
γ ≤
γ
20
(3.18)
KKI2 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 28 31 36
Nama Kelompok Industri Makanan dan Minuman Tembakau Tekstil Pakaian Jadi Kulit dan barang dari kulit Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman Kertas dan barang dari kertas Penerbitan, percetakan, dan reproduksi Kimia dan barang2 dari bahan kimia Karet dan barang2 dari plastik Barang galian bukan logam Barang2 dari logam dan peralatannya Mesin listrik lainnya dan perlengkapannya Furniture dan industri pengolahan lainnya Total
Jumlah Perusahaan 84 9 11 1 6 10 5 11 12 26 21 4 1 24 225
% 37.33 4.00 4.89 0.44 2.67 4.44 2.22 4.89 5.33 11.56 9.33 1.78 0.44 10.67 100.00
21
α β
α
β -
22
П П
П
π
23
24
120
Indeks
%
6
100
5
Apresiasi
80 60
4
Apresiasi
Apresiasi
3
40
2
20
0 2002
7
1
0 2003
2004
REER
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
PDB Manufaktur (yoy) - Kanan
25
Kandungan Input Impor pada Outputt Sub Sektor Industri Pengolahan Non MigasShare Ekspor Industri mesin, alat-alat dan perlengkapan listrik 1) Makanan, Minuman, dan Tembakau 13.86 2) Tekstil, Barang Kulit, dan Alas Kaki
39.70
3) Barang Kayu dan Hasil Hutan Lainnya
48.00
4) Kertas dan Barang Cetakan
25.81
5) Kimia dan Barang dari Karet
27.32
6) Semen dan Barang Galian Bukan Logam
11.79
7) Logam Dasar, Besi dan Baja
16.62
8) Alat Angkutan, Mesin dan Peralatannya
22.71
9) Barang Lainnya
60.43
Total
25.19
2008
Industri barang dari logam
2005 2000
Industri pupuk dan pestisida
1995 Industri alat pengangkutan dan perbaikannya %
Industri kimia 5
30
55
80
26
Tabel II.4 Distribusi Perusahaan berdasarkan Tingkat Profit Tahun 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total
Rugi 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tingkat Profit Kecil Sedang 95% 4% 95% 2% 96% 2% 95% 3% 93% 4% 96% 2% 95% 4% 95% 3% 95% 3%
Besar 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2%
27
Indeks
%
120
% 4
20
110
%
25
4 20.09
19.64
3
10
2
Apresiasi
5
Apresiasi
Apresiasi
90
3
15
100
80 1 70 60 2002
0 2002 -5
0
2003
2004 REER
2005
2006
2007
2008
Rasio Profit - Kanan
2009
2
Apresiasi
3.9
2.4
0.93 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 -5.01
-5.71
-10
1 2009 -3.72
0 REER (yoy)
Rasio Profit - Kanan
28
KKI 2 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 28 31 36
Subsektor Makanan dan Minuman Tembakau Tekstil Pakaian Jadi Kulit dan barang dari kulit Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman Kertas dan barang dari kertas Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik Barang Galian Bukan Logam Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya Total
KKI2 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 28 31 36
Subsektor Makanan dan Minuman Tembakau Tekstil Pakaian Jadi Kulit dan barang dari kulit Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman Kertas dan barang dari kertas Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik Barang Galian Bukan Logam Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya
Kecil 80% 22% 27% 0% 67% 50% 60% 36% 42% 50% 76% 75% 0% 50% 61%
Sedang 18% 33% 9% 0% 33% 30% 40% 45% 50% 31% 19% 25% 0% 42% 27%
Besar 2% 44% 64% 100% 0% 20% 0% 18% 8% 19% 5% 0% 100% 8% 12%
Kapital Tenaga Kerja 0.13 *** 0.58 *** 0.13 * 1.29 *** 0.21 *** 0.48 *** -0.03 0.43 ** 0.05 1.33 *** 0.12 *** 1.20 *** -0.49 ** 1.06 *** 0.33 *** 0.78 *** 0.05 1.40 *** 0.14 *** 0.10 -0.01 0.62 *** 0.17 *** 0.74 *** -0.02 1.30 *** 0.11 ** 0.67 ***
29
KKI 2 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 28 31 36
Subsektor Makanan dan Minuman Tembakau Tekstil Pakaian Jadi Kulit dan barang dari kulit Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman Kertas dan barang dari kertas Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik Barang Galian Bukan Logam Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya Total
Rendah Sedang 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 97% 3%
30
31
Tahun 2003 KKI 2 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 28 31 36
Subsektor Makanan & minuman Tembakau Tekstil Pakaian Jadi Kulit & barang dari kulit Kayu & anyaman Kertas & brg dr kertas Penerbitan Kimia Karet & Plastik Barang Galian non Logam Barang Logam Mesin Listrik furnitur Total
Tahun 2004 Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi 1% 96% 1% 1% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 83% 17% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 91% 9% 0% 0% 92% 0% 8% 0% 96% 4% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 8% 92% 0% 0% 2% 95% 2% 1%
Rendah 99% 89% 91% 100% 100% 100% 100% 91% 83% 96% 100% 100% 0% 100% 96%
Sedang 0% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
Tinggi 1% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 2%
32
Tahun 2005 KKI 2 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 28 31 36
Subsektor Makanan & minuman Tembakau Tekstil Pakaian Jadi Kulit & barang dari kulit Kayu & anyaman Kertas & brg dr kertas Penerbitan Kimia Karet & Plastik Barang Galian non Logam Barang Logam Mesin Listrik Furnitur Total
Tahun 2006 Rendah Sedang Tinggi 98% 1% 1% 89% 11% 0% 91% 9% 0% 100% 0% 0% 83% 0% 17% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 91% 0% 9% 92% 8% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 92% 8% 0% 95% 3% 2%
Rendah Sedang Tinggi 94% 4% 2% 78% 11% 11% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 91% 0% 9% 100% 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 90% 5% 5% 75% 25% 0% 100% 0% 0% 92% 4% 4% 93% 4% 3%
33
2,500,000
5
2,000,000
4
1,500,000
3
1,000,000
2
500,000
1
Tinggi Sedang
Rendah Rugi Total
-
0 Total
Rugi
Rendah
Sedang
Output (ribu Rp) Tingkat teknologi (level) - Kanan
Tinggi
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Produktivitas (ribu Rp/orang) Tenaga kerja (orang)
34
10%
0.3
Pertumbuhan Penjualan
Rasio Konsentrasi (Level)
0.4
0.2
0.1
8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
0.0 Rugi
Rendah
Sedang
Tingkat Profit
Tinggi
Rugi
Rendah
Sedang
Tinggi
Tingkat Profit
35
36
α
α
37
(1) Variabel
Panel FE
Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REER
-3.212 -0.054 0.397
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate (-1)
-0.142
TFP
0.325
***
0.003
0.004
0.005 **
0.033 -0.174
0.119
0.020
0.000
0.003
0.000
0.003
0.008 0.033
0.006 0.028
0.006 0.041
0.005 0.028
White Standard Standard Error Error
Koefisien
***
0.096
0.120
0.093
0.004
0.003
0.045
0.051
0.003
-0.000
0.045
0.051
-0.083
0.004
0.006
0.005 0.009 0.005
-0.080
Sales(-1) (REER > 82.24) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
0.004
0.009
0.007
*
0.005 (2) 82.24 [81.49, 101.13] 2.37 0.03 (1.22, 2.01, 4.18)
(1)
(2)
Standard Panel FE Error 1.443 *** 0.374 -0.129 0.084
0.003
0.003
0.005 0.015
*
0.005 (3) 82.24 [81.49, 101.13] 3.15 0.03 (1.75, 2.58, 4.19)
Standard Error *** 0.381
Panel FE 1.646
-0.223 ** 0.323 ***
0.091 0.115
0.078
0.123
-0.000
0.003
-0.001
0.003
0.005 0.019
0.004 0.028
0.005 0.019
0.006 0.032
*
0.004
(3)
Standard Panel FE Error 2.347 *** 0.403 0.092 -0.223 ** 0.092
0.112
0.000
*
0.097
***
0.004
0.010 0.006 0.010
***
***
0.294
0.000 -0.008 0.004 -0.008
White Standard Standard Error Error
-0.305
0.085
Sales (REER <=82.24) Sales (REER > 82.24) Sales(-1) (REER <=82.24)
0.028
0.096
0.143
0.002
0.343
0.098
Koefisien
-0.037 0.003
Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REERg
(3)
0.098
0.000
0.006 (1) 82.24 [81.49, 101.13] 0.88 0.42 (3.01, 4.09, 6.49)
0.118 0.115
***
0.122
(2)
CR(-1)
Variabel
-0.145 0.355
White Standard Standard Error Error 0.085 0.087
TFP(-1) CR
-2.238
(1)
0.117
Standard Error 2.738
Panel FE
0.106
-0.302 ***
(3) Standard Error 0.028
Panel FE
0.112
0.001
0.050
Variabel
(2)
Standard Error * 1.935 0.088
38
(1) Variabel BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP
(2)
White Standard Koefisien Standard Error Error -0.175 * 0.087 0.096 ***
0.117
0.000
0.003
0.002
0.008 0.007
0.005 0.012
CR(-1) Sales (REERg <=19.64) Sales (REERg > 19.64) Sales(-1) (REERg <=-5.01) Sales(-1) (REERg >-5.01) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
-0.011 0.011
**
***
0.095
-0.305
***
0.097
0.096
0.294
***
0.120
0.093
0.004
0.003
0.045
0.051
0.143
0.085
0.000
0.004
0.003
-0.000
0.045
0.051
-0.083
0.005 0.004 (2) -5.01 [-5.71, 20.09] 2.37 0.06 (1.73, 2.50, 3.99)
0.006
0.007
*
White Standard Standard Error Error
Koefisien
-0.004
-0.080 (1) 19.64 [-5.71, 20.09] 2.08 0.17 (2.86, 3.90, 5.21)
0.098
0.093
TFP(-1) CR
Koefisien
-0.302 0.300
(3)
White Standard Standard Error Error
*
0.005 0.0035 (3) -5.01 [-5.71, 20.09] 3.15 0.05 (2.08, 3.01, 5.18)
39
(1)
Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REER
(2) Standard Standard Panel FE Error Error -13.282 9.429 -9.762 8.932 -0.148 0.424 0.204 0.617 0.716 0.594 -2.562 3.291 0.019 0.047 0.152 0.153 -0.038 0.041 -0.072 0.092 0.171 * 0.092 0.238 0.161 Panel FE
Variabel
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate (-1)
-0.287
TFP
0.250
(1) White Standard Standard Error Error 0.474 0.304
-0.971 1.099
-0.070
0.078
-10.498
Standard Error 9.370
-0.007 0.508
0.563 0.763
0.014
0.057
-0.003 0.145
0.050 0.093
(2) White Standard Standard Error Error 0.602
0.703
1.151
TFP(-1) CR
Koefisien
(3) Panel FE
-4.805
3.494
4.004
0.306
0.177
0.217
Koefisien
(3) White Standard Standard Error Error
-0.941
0.533
0.584
1.782
1.511
1.648
0.101
CR(-1)
-0.007
0.062
0.042
Sales(-1) (REER <=86.42)
0.198
0.126
0.129
Sales(-1) (REER >86.42)
-0.079
0.066
0.063
Sales(-1) (REER <=92.50) Sales(-1) (REER >92.50) Sales (REER <=98.76) Sales (REER > 98.76) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
-0.040 0.001
0.071 0.043 0.072 0.048 (1) 98.76 [81.49, 101.13] 0.27 0.87 (4.23, 5.06, 9.31)
0.109
0.105
0.075
-0.228
0.135
0.159
(2) 92.50 [81.49, 101.13] 2.34 0.21 (3.43, 4.08, 6.06)
(3) 86.42 [81.49, 101.13] 2.73 0.16 (3.45, 4.89, 6.76)
40
(1)
Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REERg
(2) Standard Standard Panel FE Panel FE Error Error 5.631 ** 1.634 1.084 6.961 -0.738 * 0.431 -0.290 0.550 -0.657 0.578 0.982 2.298 -0.055 0.037 -0.033 0.093 -0.083 * 0.046 0.015 0.072 0.127 ** 0.579 0.042 0.117
(3) Standard Panel FE Error 2.967 2.383 -0.297 0.380
0.550 0.772
-0.027
0.082
0.002 0.075
0.057 0.098
BIRate BIRate (-1)
(1) (2) White White Standard Standard Koefisien Standard Koefisien Standard Error Error Error Error -0.234 0.477 0.300 0.693 -0.905 * 0.533
-0.515
0.542
0.417
TFP
0.056
-0.194
1.095
0.739
Variabel
1.130
1.113
TFP(-1) CR
-0.045
0.059
0.010
2.787
2.260
-0.029
0.121
0.099
Koefisien
(3) White Standard Standard Error Error
0.085
CR(-1)
0.012
0.065
0.041
Sales(-1) (REER <=-5.01)
0.074
0.228
0.094
Sales(-1) (REER >-5.01)
-0.008
0.060
0.032
Sales(-1) (REER <=2.40) Sales(-1) (REER >2.40) Sales (REERg <=20.09) Sales (REERg > 20.09) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
-0.035 0.020
0.060 0.033 0.080 0.051 (1) 20.09 [-5.71, 20.09] 0.54 0.71 (5.53, 7.18, 11.08)
0.032
0.103
0.081
-0.078
0.119
0.057
(2) 2.40 [-5.71, 20.09] 0.61 0.44 (2.67, 3.93, 5.63)
(3) -5.01 [-5.71, 20.09] 0.19 0.66 (1.62, 2.23, 4.95)
41
Tahun 1990 1995 2000 2005
Share Ekspor/Output 9.05% 10.01% 0.00% 0.00%
42
(1)
(2) Standard Standard Panel FE Panel FE Error Error 7.111 11.670 27.381 ** 13.289 -0.186 0.321 -0.451 0.475 0.149 0.148 0.070 0.098 0.006 0.018 0.033 * 0.016 0.004 0.064 -0.105 * 0.062 -0.062 0.127 -0.296 * 0.148
Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REER
(1) Variabel
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate (-1)
0.019
TFP
0.173
Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
0.015
0.016
0.017
0.254 -0.031
0.161 0.057
0.162 0.081
0.015
-0.154 *** 0.025
0.058 0.173
(3)
0.402
Koefisien
0.407
White Standard Standard Error Error 0.451
0.304
0.411
**
0.137
0.170
0.124
0.074
0.000
0.019
0.026
*
0.016
0.014
0.200
0.097
0.119
-0.277
**
0.087
0.108
0.026
0.051 0.039 (2) 86.42 [81.49, 101.13] 5.90 0.15 (8.20, 10.43, 12.89)
-0.129
*
0.049
(1) 82.24 [81.49, 101.13] 2.67 0.45 (7.03, 9.03, 16.33)
0.020
White Standard Standard Error Error 0.444
-0.089
CR(-1) Sales (REER <=82.24) Sales (REER > 82.24) Sales(-1) (REER <=86.42)
0.588 0.163
0.088
TFP(-1) CR
Koefisien
-0.431 0.101
0.758 0.435 **
(2)
White Standard Standard Error Error 0.317 0.239 *
(3) Standard Panel FE Error -6.007 16.765
**
0.069 0.069 (3) 86.42 [86.42, 101.13] -1.28 0.06 (-1.96, -0.53, 2.39)
43
(1) Variabel
Panel FE
Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REERg
1.251 -0.211 0.220
0.016
0.049
0.467
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate (-1)
0.019
TFP
0.173
*
0.054
(1) White Standard Standard Error Error 0.317 0.239 *
0.101
Sales(-1) (REERg >3.90) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
0.416
0.459
-0.059
0.231
0.029 -0.024 0.074
Koefisien
0.298 0.129
0.020
0.023
0.015
0.048 0.171
-0.167 *** -0.031
0.058 0.067
(2) White Standard Standard Error Error 0.392
0.199 0.015
0.016
0.016
0.254 -0.031
0.161 0.057
0.162 0.081
0.054
-0.037 0.151 (1) -5.01 [-5.71, 20.09] 2.67 0.32 (5.80, 8.27, 12.46)
0.666 *** 0.437 ***
0.261
0.088
CR(-1) Sales (REERg <=-5.01) Sales (REERg > -5.01) Sales(-1) (REERg <=3.90)
1.149
0.029
TFP(-1) CR
Panel FE
(3) Standard Standard Panel FE Error Error 1.055 -3.796 ** 1.633
0.097
0.014
0.091
Variabel
**
(2) Standard Error 0.918 0.306
Koefisien
(3) White Standard Standard Error Error
0.715
**
0.373
0.303
0.487
***
0.132
0.177
0.215
0.160
0.020
0.022
0.033
*
0.017
0.017
0.049
0.038
-0.217
***
0.063
0.079
0.127 0.115 (2) 3.90 [-5.71, 20.09] 0.97 0.61 (5.85, 8.95, 14.48)
-0.101
**
0.074 0.073 (3) 3.90 [2.40, 20.09] 2.04 0.16 (4.35, 6.51, 9.20)
α
44
(1)
Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REER
(2) Standard Standard Panel FE Panel FE Error Error 22.459 12.985 7.520 8.080 -0.410 0.265 -0.244 0.460 -1.366 *** 0.700 -0.408 0.326 -0.002 0.007 -0.007 0.009 0.021 ** 0.010 -0.010 0.014 -0.123 0.097 -0.024 0.069
(3) Standard Panel FE Error 4.350 10.099 0.059 -0.280
8.080 0.559
-0.003
0.009
-0.017 -0.002
0.013 0.079
45
Variabel
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate (-1)
-0.147
TFP
0.698
(1) White Standard Standard Error Error 0.271 0.219
(2) White Standard Standard Error Error
Koefisien
0.528
-0.476
0.325
0.495
0.339
-1.308
1.380
1.021
-0.005
0.017
0.016
Sales(-1) (REER <=86.42)
-0.094
0.105
0.073
Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) Sales (REER <=101.13) Sales (REER > 101.13) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
-0.005
0.022
0.017
0.655
0.504
TFP(-1)
-0.442
CR
0.003
0.008
0.534
Koefisien
(3) White Standard Standard Error Error
*
0.309
0.242
0.007
CR(-1)
-0.016
0.017
0.021
Sales(-1) (REER <=82.24)
-0.213
0.244
0.302
Sales(-1) (REER >82.24)
-0.001
0.020
0.017
0.001 0.239
0.014 0.014 *** 0.106 0.074 (1) 101.13 [81.49, 101.13] -0.87 0.78 (1.13, 2.75, 7.28)
(2) 82.24 [81.49, 101.13] 0.90 0.34 (2.58, 3.64, 5.12)
(1) Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REERg
(2)
Standard Panel FE Error 6.507 *** 1.756 -0.343 0.240 -0.544 **
0.265
-0.008 **
0.008
0.024
0.010
-0.039
(3) 86.42 [81.49, 101.13] 0.65 0.58 (3.06, 3.97, 5.59)
0.028
(3)
Standard Panel FE Error 3.888 * 2.051 -0.321
0.361
-0.132
0.363
-0.011 -0.008 -0.048
Panel FE 4.255 **
Standard Error 2.164
-0.261 -0.205
0.394 0.395
0.010
-0.011
0.009
0.013 0.056
-0.007 -0.059
0.013 0.041
46
(1) Variabel
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate (-1)
-0.249
TFP
-0.559
(2)
White Standard Standard Error Error 0.342 0.260
-0.447 -0.004
0.008
-0.006
Sales(-1) (REERg <=3.90)
-0.025
Sales(-1) (REERg >3.90)
-0.003 0.018 0.020
0.298
*
0.302
0.237
0.016
0.015
0.019
0.013
0.017
0.015
Koefisien
-0.208
0.457
0.381
-0.225
0.439
0.379
0.029 0.017
*
-0.014
0.016
0.017
0.015
0.012
0.028 0.014 -0.008
Sales(-1) (REERg >20.09) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
White Standard Standard Error Error
0.006
CR(-1)
Sales (REERg <=19.64) Sales (REERg > 19.64) Sales(-1) (REERg <=20.09)
0.343
0.390
TFP(-1) CR
Koefisien
-0.049 0.401
(3)
White Standard Standard Error Error
-0.434 (1) 19.64 [-5.71, 20.09] 2.08 0.17 (2.86, 3.90, 5.21)
(2) 3.90 [-5.71, 20.09] 1.25 0.63 (4.49, 5.90, 8.07)
Persen
**
0.299 0.197 (3) 20.09 [-5.71, 20.09] -0.20 0.81 (5.06, 6.85, 10.95)
Persen
200
60 50
150
40 30
100
20 10
50
0 -10
0 2003
-20 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-50
2009
-30
-40 Profit
TFP - kanan
47
(1)
Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REER
(2) Standard Standard Panel FE Panel FE Error Error -3.212 * 1.935 0.033 0.028 -0.054 0.088 -0.174 0.119 0.397 *** 0.112 0.106 0.122 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.008 0.006 0.050 ** 0.020 0.033 0.028
(3) Standard Panel FE Error -2.238 2.738 -0.145 0.355 ***
0.118 0.115
0.000
0.003
0.006 0.041
0.005 0.028
48
(1) Variabel
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate (-1)
-0.242
TFP
-0.546
(2)
White Standard Standard Error Error 0.482 0.277
Koefisien
-0.881 1.194
(3)
White Standard Standard Error Error *
0.773
0.484
0.822
TFP(-1)
0.776
2.213
1.805
CR(-1)
0.001
0.005
0.002
Sales(-1) (REER <=96.07)
-0.035
0.051
0.051
0.081
0.049
CR
-0.001
0.005
-0.094 0.028 0.021
Sales(-1) (REER >101.13) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
0.035 0.265
-1.114
0.748
0.611
0.274
1.005
0.498
0.001
0.005
0.002
*
0.031
0.019
0.026 0.118 -0.027 -0.129
(1) 101.13 [81.49, 101.13] -0.01 0.61 (1.06, 2.83, 7.46)
(2) 96.07 [81.49, 101.13] -1.54 0.70 (5.93, 8.27, 18.39)
(1)
Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REERg
*
0.001
Sales(-1) (REER >96.07) Sales (REER <=101.13) Sales (REER >101.13) Sales(-1) (REER <=101.13)
White Standard Standard Error Error
Koefisien
(2) Standard Standard Panel FE Panel FE Error Error 1.689 4.581 1.383 7.280 -0.263 0.402 0.165 0.580 -0.061 0.900 0.060 1.521 -0.004 0.004 -0.003 0.004 0.022 0.028 -0.016 0.037 0.142 ** 0.066 0.180 * 0.102
*
0.077 0.072 (3) 101.13 [81.49, 101.13] -1.23 0.42 (-0.65, -0.14, 3.07)
(3)
-0.484
Standard Error 4.265
0.254 0.362
0.411 0.704
-0.003
0.004
-0.015 0.202 **
0.024 0.083
Panel FE
49
(1) Variabel
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate (-1)
0.015
TFP
0.649
(2)
White Standard Standard Error Error 0.437 0.112
Koefisien
0.476
0.047 1.164
(3)
White Standard Standard Error Error 0.265
0.381
TFP(-1)
Koefisien
White Standard Standard Error Error
-0.152
0.566
0.228
-1.964
1.687
1.987
0.143
1.213
0.786
CR(-1)
0.001
0.004
0.001
-0.005
0.005
0.005
Sales(-1) (REERg <=-3.72)
0.000
0.033
0.022
0.550
0.392
0.452
Sales(-1) (REERg >-3.72)
-1.994
0.623
1.026
-0.032
0.030
0.020
0.033
0.022
CR
Sales (REERg <=0.93) Sales (REERg >0.93) Sales(-1) (REERg <=20.09) Sales(-1) (REERg >20.09) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
0.002
-0.017 0.111
0.004
0.035 0.047
0.002
*
0.013 0.070 0.000 -1.994
(1) 0.93 [-5.71, 20.09] -0.43 0.11 (-0.27, 2.92, 5.79)
*
0.623 1.026 (2) 20.09 [-5.71, 20.09] -0.51 0.79 (3.24, 4.10, 7.55)
(3) -3.72 [-5.71, 20.09] 1.66 0.44 (5.16, 7.39, 10.00)
50
Rasio
Persen
2.0
60 40
1.5
20
Persen
4.00
70
3.50
60
3.00
50 40
2.50 0
1.0 -20 0.5
0.0 2002
2003
2004 Profit
2005
2006
2007
2008
Pertumbuhan Penjualan
2009
30
2.00
20
1.50
10
-40
1.00
0
-60
0.50
-10
-80
0.00 2002
-20 2003 Profit
2004
2005 TFP
2006
2007
2008
2009
Rasio Konsentrasi - Kanan
51
(1)
Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REER Salesbbm Salesbbm(-1) Dummy BBM
(2) Standard Standard Panel FE Panel FE Error Error 4,728 *** 1,535 58,378 *** 9,476 0,005 0,616 0,487 *** 0,106 -0,299 0,399 -13,665 *** 2,264 0,004 * 0,002 0,006 ** 0,003 -0,009
0,005
-0,024 ** -0,562 ***
0,011 0,063
-33,893 ***
3,759
(3) Standard Panel FE Error 2,134 1,769 0,137 -0,411
0,176 0,730
0,003
0,003
-0,120 *** -0,157 ***
0,021 0,031
0,005 0,002
0,006 0,027
-0,014 -3,375 ***
0,009 0,712
-0,008 0,795
0,011 0,724
52
Variabel
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate (-1)
0,099
TFP
-0,975
(1) White Standard Standard Error Error 0,089 0,085
(2) White Standard Standard Error Error
Koefisien
0,116
0,290 0,640
TFP(-1)
-4,671
CR
0,006
*
0,003
0,003
Salesbbm
-0,579
***
0,067
0,100
Salesbbm(-1) Dummy BBM Sales (REER <=82.24) Sales (REER > 82.24) Sales(-1) (REER <=82.24)
-35,059 *** -0,012 * -0,016
3,986 0,007 0,010
5,831 0,006 0,011
CR(-1)
*
(1)
Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REERg Salesbbm Salesbbm(-1) Dummy BBM
0,071
0,429
0,356
0,004
0,005
0,002
0,004
0,004
0,068 4,099
0,097 5,736
-0,563 -33,474
0,069 4,166
0,106 6,384
0,158
0,351
0,446
0,16
0,336
0,013 0,002 (2) 82,24 [82.24, 82.24] 2,45 0,27 (5.00, 6.82, 11.54)
0,003
0,484 (1) 82,24 [81.49, 101.13] -2,53 0,79 (2.46, 3.78, 6.48)
0,092
2,543
-0,547 *** -34,167 ***
-0,038
0,024 -0,145
1,413
0,006
Sales(-1) (REER >82.24) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
0,181
0,616
Koefisien
(3) White Standard Standard Error Error
***
(2) Standard Standard Panel FE Panel FE Error Error 2,661 ** 1,043 24,454 *** 5,775 -0,040 0,071 0,366 *** 0,106 -0,323 0,352 -7,157 *** 1,783 0,004 0,003 0,003 0,003 -0,007 0,005 -0,075 0,021 0,017 0,124 0,106 ** 0,044 -0,564 *** 0,063 0,033 ** 0,016 -34,507 *** 3,774 -4,841 *** 1,601
0,003 0,002 (3) 82,24 [82.24, 82.24] 8,18 0,02 (4.18, 6.40, 10.12)
(3) Standard Panel FE Error 2,346 1,478 0,129 -0,401
0,116 0,560
0,003
0,003
0,004 0,006
0,007 0,038
-0,006 0,661
0,013 0,951
53
Variabel
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate (-1)
0,052
TFP
-0,872
(1)
(2)
White Standard Standard Error Error 0,085 0,074
White Standard Standard Error Error
Koefisien
0,116
0,290 *
0,584
-4,671 0,005
*
0,003
0,003
-0,591
***
0,067
0,096
-35,274 *** -0,013 * 0,005
3,976 0,007 0,009
5,741 0,006 0,007
CR(-1)
*
Salesbbm(-1)
0,092
0,071
0,429
0,356
0,002
0,004
0,004
0,004
***
0,068
0,097
-0,563
***
0,069
0,106
-34,167 ***
4,099
5,736
33,474
***
4,166
6,384
0,158
0,351
0,446
0,160
0,336
0,013 0,023 (2) -5,01 [-5.01, 20.09] 2,45 0,28 (4.61, 6.12, 13.34)
0,003
-0,038 (1) 3,90 [-5.71, 20.09] 0,65 0,61 (3.93, 5.27, 8.72)
0,024 -0,145
0,004
0,484
Sales(-1) (REERg >-5.01) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
White Standard Standard Error Error
2,543
-0,547
Dummy BBM Sales (REERg <=3.90) Sales (REERg >3.90) Sales(-1) (REERg <=-5.01)
Koefisien
1,413
0,006
Salesbbm
0,181
0,480
TFP(-1) CR
(3)
*
0,003 0,002 (3) -5,01 [-5.01, -5.01] 8,18 0,03 (3.96, 6.36, 10.92)
α α
54
(1)
-12,810 0,225 0,114
0,355
0,004
0,015
0,014
0,027
Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REER WTV WTV (-1)
(2) Standard Error 8,602 0,422
Panel FE
0,163 0,094 0,094
*
0,088 0,093 0,093
-10,198
Standard Error 12,267
-10,620 -0,028
0,550
-0,040 -0,052
0,553 0,380
-0,001
0,393
0,008
0,018
0,008
0,018
0,219 0,126
0,031 0,125
0,022 0,124
0,031 0,126
0,308
0,269
0,308
0,269
Panel FE
(1) Variabel
Koefisien
BIRate BIRate(-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) WTV WTV(-1) Sales (REER <=98.76) Sales (REER >98.76) Sales(-1)(REER <=86.42)
-0.072
0.423
0.123
0.401
0.171
-0.001
0.018
0.013
0.013
0.197
0.169
0.039 0.050
0.014 0.031
**
Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
Koefisien
98.76 [81.49, 101.13] 0.56 0.49 (2.41, 3.25, 5.83)
(3)
White Standard Standard Error Error 0.621
-0.493
0.027 -0.030
Panel FE
(2) White Standard Error 0.395
Standard Error
(3) Standard Error 11,883
0.526
Koefisien
White Standard Standard Error Error
-0.503 -0.010
0.614 0.424
0.526 0.222
0.089
0.525
0.101
0.020
0.023
0.014
0.022
0.023
0.015
0.378
0.452
0.241
0.374
0.444
0.252
-0.040
**
0.060
0.020
-0.040
**
0.060
0.020
0.050
**
0.040
0.022
0.051
**
0.040
0.024
86.42 [81.49, 101.13] 0.03 0.43 (2.15, 3.34, 6.06)
86.42 [81.49, 101.13] 0.00 0.42 (2.14, 3.53, 5.65)
55
Variabel Konstanta BIRate BIRate (-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) Sales Sales(-1) REERg WTV WTV (-1)
Panel FE 2,785 -0,099
*
Standard Error 1,560 0,392
0,030
0,985
Standard Error 2,521
1,587
Standard Error 2,469
-0,415
0,425
-0,417 -0,113
0,424 0,377
0,717
0,403
0,060
0,018
0,007
0,183
0,013 -0,022
0,030 0,086
0,014 -0,020
0,030 0,083
0,335
0,277
0,333
0,277
Panel FE
0,360
0,001
0,016
0,008
0,028
0,009 0,041 0,041
0,067 0,095 0,095
(1) Variabel BIRate BIRate(-1) TFP TFP(-1) CR CR(-1) WTV WTV(-1) Sales (REER <=2.40) Sales (REER >2.40) Sales(-1) (REER <=20.09)
-0.082
0.424
White Standard Error 0.389
0.114
0.402
0.176
0.018
0.001
0.017
0.198
0.174
0.027 -0.010
0.045 0.040
0.019 0.021
Koefisien
Standard Error
-0.597
0.000
***
Sales(-1) (REER >20.09) Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% )
Koefisien
(2) White Standard Standard Error Error 0.627
0.594
Koefisien
(3) White Standard Standard Error Error
-0.615 -0.069
0.616 0.428
0.582 0.213
0.106
0.556
0.113
0.021
0.024
0.016
0.021
0.025
0.016
0.183
0.426
0.197
0.170
0.413
0.200
0.017
0.035
0.019
0.018
0.036
0.020
0.127 0.065 (2) 20.09 [-5.71, 20.09] -0.22 0.85 (4.51, 7.15, 14.42)
0.074
0.079 (1) 2.40 [-5.71, 20.09] 0.40 0.70 (2.77, 3.53, 5.72)
Panel FE
0.122 0.061 (3) 20.09 [-5.71, 20.09] -0.23 0.81 (4.43, 6.69, 15.62)
56
57
58
59
60