Abstracts. Dutch Demography Day Utrecht, 27 November 2013

Abstracts Dutch Demography Day 2013 Utrecht, 27 November 2013

Dutch Demography Day 2013 1

9.40-11.00 Plenary Session: Generation Y Location: Aula Opening Use it or Lose it? Explaining age-related differences in people’s key information processing skills Health and labor market access of young workers Granting of the NIDI Master Thesis Award Presentation by NIDI Master Thesis Award winner

Inge Hutter (RUG, NvD Chairman) Rolf van der Velden (ROA) Paulien Bongers (TNO) Leo van Wissen (NIDI) To be announced


Parallel Session Round 1 Session 1a: Healthy Ageing [ENG] 1. Maatschappelijke participatie onder ouderen (55+) in Zuid Limburg 2. The importance of cultural differences for health literacy interventions: Older adults’ voice in Greece, Hungary and Netherlands 3. Iedereen zelfredzaam en actief? Behoefte aan en gebruik van ondersteuning onder de WMO 4. Life expectancy is increasing – does the experience of older people change with it?

11.15-12.45 Chairman: Hinke Haisma Location: Kannunikenzaal Nicole Curvers, Klaas Jan Hajema (GGD Zuid Limburg) Liesbeth de Wit (RUG) Peteke Feijten (SCP) Henrike Galenkamp (VU medisch centrum and LASA), Dorly Deeg Chairman: Clara Mulder Location: Eijkmankamer

Session 1b: Migration [NL-ENG]

1. The attractiveness of the regions Twente, Foodvalley and Pascal Beckers (RU) Healthvalley for highly skilled international migrants 2. Life paths of migrants: a sequence analysis of Polish labour migrants’ family-life trajectories 3. Motieven om te blijven of weg te gaan: kansen en bedreigingen voor jongvolwassenen op de Friese Waddeneilanden

Tom Kleinepier (NIDI) Inge de Vries (Partoer) Chairman: Francis van der Mooren Location: Opzoomerkamer Ruben van Gaalen (CBS)

Session 1c: Generation Y [ENG]

1. Verschilt X werkelijk zoveel van Y? 2. The Russian Generation Y in reproductive and matrimonial Ekaterina Mitrofanova (National spheres Research University) 3. Economische crisis, krapte op de woningmarkt en hotel mama: Lenny Stoeldraijer (CBS) jongeren blijven langer thuis wonen Tanja Traag and Francis van der 4. Onderwijs- en beroepsloopbaan door de generaties heen Mooren (CBS) Chairman: Eva-Maria Merz Location: Belle van Zuylenzaal Marieke Houben-van Herten 1. Geboortecijfers (CBS), Kim Knoops (CBS) 2. In wat voor gezin worden kinderen geboren? Suzanne Loozen (CBS) Karel Neels (Universiteit 3. Postponement and recuperation of first births in Europe: the effect of economic and institutional contexts over the life-course Antwerpen) 4. Challenging culture: the role of personal experiences in Billie de Haas (RUG) abstinence-only education in Uganda Session 1d: Fertility [NL]

Session 1e: Inequalities [NL]

Chairman: Arieke Rijken Location: Kernkampkamer

1. Acculturation and Transnational Orientation of the Turkish Second Generation in 11 European Cities

George Groenewold and Helga de Valk (NIDI)


2. Expected and actual demand for care in deprived neighbourhoods 3. Als het gras bij de buren groener is: Leidt lokale ongelijkheid tot criminaliteit?

Auke Vlonk (Jan van Es Instituut) Gregory Besjes (CBS)

Parallel Session Round 2

14.00-15.30

Session 2a: Intergenerational Relations [ENG]

Chairman: Nina Conkova Location: Kannunikenzaal

1. The Impact of Parental Health on Older Parents' Contact with Stepchildren over 17 Years

Theo van Tilburg (VU)

2. The role of family in the transition to homeownership in Europe Clara Mulder (RUG) 3. Family-life and wellbeing at older ages

Daniël Herbers (RUG)

4. Intergenerational Support and Societal Ageing

Thomas Emery (NIDI)

Session 2b: Morbidity and Mortality [ENG]

Chairman: Fanny Janssen Location: Eijkmankamer

1. Effectiveness of statin use in reducing cardiovascular mortality in birth cohorts in the Netherlands (1994 – 2011): analysis of aggregated data. 2. Age patterns in individual- and contextual-level mortality inequalities 3. Scenario's voor overlijden in Nederland 4. Using demographic composition and socio-economic profile to identify areas with high prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus Session 2c: Gender and Employment [NL]

Bijlsma MJ, Janssen F, Bos H, Vansteelandt S and Hak E. (RUG) Eva Kibele, Patrick Präg (RUG) AHP Luijben (RIVM) Aletta Dijkstra (RUG) Chairman: Katia Begall Location: Opzoomerkamer Katja Chkalova, Niels C. Kooiman (CBS)

1. ‘The end of men’ era arrives in Dutch suburbia: Closing Gender Employment Gap in the Netherlands 2. Overwegingen van topmanagers omtrent werk-prive regelingen Wike Been (UU) in een tijd van economische crisis 3. Vrouwen en mannen in hogere managementposities in Lieselotte Blommaert (UU) Nederland, 1985-2008 Session 2d: Marriage and Fertility [ENG]

Chairman: Karel Neels Location: Belle van Zuylenzaal

1. The meaning of marriage vis-à-vis childbearing in Europe and the Jennifer A. Holland (NIDI) United States 2. Fertility inhibiting role of the proximate determinants of fertility Darak Shrinivas (RUG) among HIV infected Indian women 3. Forecasting Provincial Fertility in Spain Alessandra Carioli (NIDI and RUG) Jonas Wood and Karel Neels 4. The effect of family policy uptake on second births in Europe (Universiteit Antwerpen)


Parallel Session Round 3 Session 3a: Family and Employment [NL] 1. Divorce and changes in social status for women

16.00-17.30 Chairman: Wike Been Location: Kannunikenzaal Maike van Damme (UPF)

2. The transition to parenthood, attitudes towards work, and Katia Begall (Goethe University women’s roles and the division of paid and unpaid work in couples Frankfurt) 3. Arbeidsmarktparticipatie na ouderschap in 10 Europese landen

Karel Neels, David De Wachter (Universiteit Antwerpen)

4. Au pairs in Nederland: demografische ontwikkelingen, motivaties Djamila Schans (WODC), Han en ervaringen Nicolaas Session 3b: Unions [ENG]

Chairman: Jennifer Holland Location: Belle van Zuyenzaal

1. To marry or to separate. The association between meaning of cohabitation and relationship transitions of cohabiters.

Nicole Hiekel (NIDI)

2. The planning status of (non-)marital fertility and its educational gradient in 9 European countries

Vergauwen Jorik (Universiteit Antwerpen)

3. Personality traits and partnership

Maja Djundeva and Melinda Mills (RUG)

4. My friends, your friends, our friends: Differences between first and higher-order unions

Katya Ivanova (UVA)

Session 3c: Population Modelling [ENG]

Chairman: Eva Kibele Location: Opzoomerkamer

1. Toekomstige bevolkingstrends in de vier grote steden

Andries de Jong (PBL)

2. Investigating additive genetic, maternal, and paternal (co-) variation in fertility and educational level in the Netherlands. An application of the ‘animal model’

Jornt Mandemakers (RUG)

3. Disentangling social mobility and differential demographic behavior in Belgium based on a population renewal model

Maarten Hermans (CELLO and Universiteit Antwerpen)

Arieke Rijken, Esther van 4. Anticipating effects of marriage? Examining pre- and post-marital Groeningen and Arjan Blokland patterns of criminal offending (Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement) Chairman: Geroge Groenewold Session 3d: Mobility and Social Cohesion [NL] Location: Eijmankamer 1. Moving intentions and moving behaviour between Sanne Boschman (TU Delft) neighbourhoods; effects on segregation. Marjolijn Das (CBS), Helga de 2. Post-separation mobility: Moving close to the family Valk and Eva-Maria Merz (NIDI) 3. The Relation between Social Capital of Families with Children Hans Elshof (NIDI and RUG) and Social Cohesion in Rural Villages Facing Population Decline Dutch Demography Day 2013 5

ABSTRACTS


Plenary Session: Generation Y 9.40-11.00 – Aula Use it or lose it? Explaining age-related differences in people’s key information processing skills Rolf van der Velden (ROA) Understanding the processes how people’s skills accumulate and depreciate over the life course is of crucial importance to enhance or preserve the stock of human capital in an economy. Identifying the many different factors that are associated with accumulation or depreciation of skills over the life course is very difficult. The recently published PIAAC data provide a unique opportunity to investigate this more in-depth. This paper advances the existing literature in two aspects. First, we look at both processes simultaneously and try to separate out all these different effects. Second, we explore whether these processes are different for younger and older people. We show that the following factors affect the accumulation or depreciation of skills over the life course (ranked in order of importance): 1. formal education; 2. the use of relevant skills at home; 3. the use of relevant skill at work; 4. work experience, age and time that has elapsed since leaving education; 5. health, non-formal training and volunteering and 6. not having worked in the past 12 months.

Health and labor market access of young workers Paulien Bongers (TNO)

Presentation by NIDI Master Thesis Award Winner (to be announced)


Session 1a: Healthy Ageing 11.15-12.45 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Hinke Haisma Name: Nicole Curvers and Klaas Jan Hajema Organization: GGD, Zuid Limburg

Maatschappelijke participatie onder ouderen (55+) in Zuid-Limburg

In de nieuwe Volksgezondheid Toekomst Verkenning van het RIVM is maatschappelijke participatie het centrale thema. Het gaat dan vooral over de relatie tussen gezondheid en maatschappelijke participatie. Gezondheid en het ontbreken van beperkingen worden gezien als determinant van participatie. In dit onderzoek heeft maatschappelijke participatie betrekking op arbeid, mantelzorg en vrijwilligerswerk. Vraagstelling Wat is de relatie tussen maatschappelijke participatie en gezondheid bij ouderen en welke factoren beïnvloeden deze relatie? Methode De onderzoekspopulatie zijn zelfstandig wonende personen van 55 jaar en ouder in ZuidLimburg. De regio is relatief ongezond en kenmerkt zich door sterke vergrijzing en bevolkingskrimp. In totaal waren er 31.284 ouderen benaderd om deel te nemen aan de monitor. De respons was 52% (N = 16.291). De volgende indicatoren van gezondheid zijn onderzocht: chronische aandoeningen, depressieve klachten, eenzaamheid, ADL- en HDLbeperkingen en beperkingen in vervoer. Naast gezondheid is de invloed van geslacht, leeftijd, opleiding, inkomen en burgerlijke staat onderzocht. Vanwege de complexe steekproeftrekking is gebruik gemaakt van SPSS Complex samples. Resultaten Niet zozeer gezondheid maar vooral beperkingen lijken van invloed op participatie. De resultaten voor participatie in de vorm van betaald werk, vrijwilligerswerk en mantelzorg zijn verschillend. Speciale aandacht verdient daarbij ook beperkingen met betrekking tot vervoer.


Session 1a: Healthy Ageing 11.15-12.45 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Hinke Haisma Name: Liesbeth de Wit Organization: University of Groningen (RUG)

The importance of cultural differences for health literacy interventions: Older adults’ voice in Greece, Hungary and Netherlands

Health literacy (HL) is one of the determinants of health. It reflects how well a person understands, digests, critically reflects on and applies information regarding health, illness and prevention. Low HL is a major issue among the aging population in Europe as it is associated with higher health care expenses and a lower quality of life. There is a need for effective interventions that increase older people’s HL. The success of such interventions strongly depends on the needs and perceptions of older adults regarding health, care and prevention. This study investigates these needs and perceptions from the perspective of both older adults, particularly those with low HL, and health professionals. Twelve qualitative focus group discussions were conducted with 50 older adults and 30 health professionals in Greece, Hungary and Netherlands. Using a grounded theory approach three overarching main themes were identified: 1) managing individual health; 2) barriers of the health system; and 3) health information and communication. However, within these themes there were important differences in participant’s needs and perceptions between the three countries. An initial conclusion is that these differences must be taken into account in developing effective HL interventions for older adults.


Session 1a: Healthy Ageing 11.15-12.45 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Hinke Haisma Name: Peteke Feijten Organization: Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau

Iedereen zelfredzaam en actief? Behoefte aan en gebruik van ondersteuning onder de Wmo

Het toenemende appel van de overheid op ‘burgerkracht’ en ‘zorgen voor elkaar’ treft vooral mensen met een beperking. Met de toenemende vergrijzing en almaar stijgende zorgkosten zou de overheid immers graag zien dat deze mensen proberen om hun hulpbehoefte eerst in eigen kring op te lossen alvorens een beroep te doen op collectief gefinancierde ondersteuning. Als dat niet gaat, kunnen zij een beroep doen op de gemeente, die onder de Wet maatschappelijke ondersteuning (Wmo) moet zorgen dat burgers zich kunnen redden en kunnen participeren in de maatschappij. Zijn er aanwijzingen dat mensen met een beperking het vaker ‘zelf oplossen’ en minder snel naar de gemeente stappen? Wie zijn degenen die gemeentelijke ondersteuning vragen en krijgen? Is de samenstelling van die groep in de laatste jaren veranderd? En wat doet Wmo-ondersteuning voor hun redzaamheid en participatie? Op basis van dataverzameling in het kader van de tweede Wmo-evaluatie en door middel van frequentietabellen en multivariate analyse wordt op deze vragen een antwoord gegeven.


Session 1a: Healthy Ageing 11.15-12.45 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Hinke Haisma Name: Henrike Galenkamp and D.J.H. Deeg Organization: VU medisch centrum and LASA

Life expectancy is increasing – does the experience of older people change with it?

In most developed countries, life expectancy is increasing, particularly in the older population. The question addressed in this study is how this objective prospect of a longer life is reflected in older people’s subjective experience of their remaining life time. Using data from four waves (1999 through 2009, each wave including ages 65-90) of the nationally representative Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, it is examined if older people in 2009 feel they are in an earlier stage of life than same-aged people in previous years. Selfperceived life stage (SPLS) was measured on a scale from 0 (earliest possible) to 100 (latest possible). The correlation of SPLS with age was positive (r=0.34). Women felt in a younger SPLS than same-age men. Age-adjusted generalised estimating equations with SPLS as the dependent variable and wave year as the independent variable showed a curvilinear trend over time, with an initial increase followed by a decline. In women, this decline occurred a bit earlier than in men. This trend was unchanged after including personal and health determinants. It is concluded that the trend in self-perceived life stage follows the trend in objective life expectancy across the period studied, but with a delay.


Session 1b: Migration 11.15-12.45 – Eijmankamer Chairman: Clara Mulder Name: Pascal Beckers Organization: Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen (RU)

The attractiveness of the regions Twente, Foodvalley and Healthvalley for highly skilled international migrants

Many regions in the Netherlands are facing a declining workforce and a growing shortage of workers with the right qualifications and talents. In this regard, attracting and retaining highly skilled international migrants can make an important contribution to achieve sustainable regional economic development. Besides national factors, such as migration policies, the issuance of visa and the image of the country, also region-specific factors are important in the location choice of highly skilled international migrants. Efficient local policies with focus on attracting and retaining highly skilled international migrants can make a difference. In this research the attractiveness of the regions Food Valley (Wageningen and surroundings), Health Valley (Arnhem/Nijmegen) and Knowledge Region Twente for highly skilled international migrants is assessed. By conducting a survey among international highly skilled migrants the motives and experiences of this group for this region as a settlement location are measured. The general migration motives - in combination with the influence of region-specific factors in the choice of highly skilled international migrants – should render a good overview of the attractiveness of these three regions.


Session 1b: Migration 11.15-12.45 – Eijmankamer Chairman: Clara Mulder Name: Inge de Vries Organization: Partoer

Motieven om te blijven of weg te gaan: kansen en bedreigingen voor jongvolwassenen

De samenstelling van de Friese bevolking verandert. Het aantal ouderen neemt toe, terwijl het aantal jongvolwassenen afneemt. Op de Friese Waddeneilanden zijn deze veranderingen extreem: tussen 2000 en 2012 daalde het aantal 15-29-jarigen met 36%, terwijl het aantal 65-79-jarigen juist met 46% steeg. Veel jongeren trekken weg van de eilanden, anderen blijven. Het onderzoek is bedoeld om inzicht te krijgen in de motieven van beide groepen jongeren. Welke aspecten wegen zwaar bij het maken van hun keuze? Aan welke eisen moet het eiland voldoen om er prettig te kunnen wonen? Welke kansen en bedreigingen zien de jongeren voor hun eiland? Per eiland is een focusgroep gehouden. Onder de aanwezigen waren zowel jongeren woonachtig op het eiland, als jongeren die vertrokken zijn. Vervolgens is een online enquête gehouden om een breder beeld van de situatie te krijgen. Al het contact tussen de jongeren en de werving voor de enquête is via Facebook gegaan. Analyse van de resultaten vindt de komende maanden plaats. Wel kan al gesteld worden dat het vertrek van jongvolwassenen van de Waddeneilanden vooral te maken heeft met de woningen arbeidsmarkt en opleidingsmogelijkheden. De hechte gemeenschap en de natuurlijke omgeving zijn een trigger om te blijven.


Session 1b: Migration 11.15-12.45 – Eijmankamer Chairman: Clara Mulder Name: Tom Kleinepier Organization: NIDI

Life Paths Of Migrants: A Sequence Analysis Of Polish Labor Migrants’ Family-Life Trajectories

Although Polish migration to the Netherlands has increased substantially over the past decade, still little is known about this large and growing group of migrants. In this study, we examine to what extent migration affects the timing and sequencing of family-life transitions and how this relates to return migration of Polish migrants in the Netherlands. The majority of studies on family-life transitions of migrants exclusively focus on one transition only, which is unfortunate as different events in the life course are strongly interdependent. Using rich longitudinal register data from the Netherlands, we apply sequence analysis and cover multiple life events simultaneously (migration, union formation, childbirth, divorce). Our analysis focus on young adult (aged 20-30 at migration) Polish labor migrants that recently arrived in the Netherlands. We follow the life courses of these migrants for a period of five years on a monthly time base. Preliminary analyses reveal that about 40 percent of the Polish migrants leave the Netherlands within our five-year observation window. In particular men who migrated at relative young ages have a high likelihood to leave the Netherlands, which seems to be related to the fact that these migrants more often remain single.


Session 1c: Generation Y 11.15-12.45 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Francis van der Mooren Name: Ruben van Gaalen Organization: CBS

Verschilt X werkelijk zoeveel van Y?

Een typering van de leefsituatie van in 1970, 1975 en 1980 geborenen 30-jarigen met het Sociaal Statistisch Bestand (SSB). Generatie X: geboren tussen 1960 en 1979. Generatie Y: geboren tussen 1980 en 1999. Er wordt vaak gesuggereerd dat ze verschillen qua preferenties en ontwikkelkansen, bepaald door het ouderlijke milieu, persoonlijke kwaliteiten en de conjuncturele situatie. Generatie X genoten maakten als kind een economische crisis, als jongvolwassene slechts conjuncturele groei en expansie mee. “Greed is good”, verder NiX, was hun motto, aldus opiniemakers. Generatie Y geborenen zouden minder interesse in persoonlijk gewin, losser qua levens- en werkhouding hebben; ze beleven nu ook een economische crisis. Verschillen deze generaties echt zo van elkaar? Onderzocht wordt de leefsituatie van 30-jarigen van 3 complete geboortejaargangen: 1970, 1975 en 1980. Een verschuiving van Generatie X naar Y zou te zien moeten zijn tussen deze jaren. Met een Latente Klassen Analyse wordt hun leefsituatie getypeerd: (1) Woonsituatie (ouders/alleen/samenwonend), (2) Samenwoonrelatie gehad, (3) Kinderen, (4) Werkzaam, (5) Werkzaam geweest, (6) Ooit uitkering gehad, (7) Economisch zelfstandig (Ja/nee). Daarna wordt de kans op het toebehoren tot een leefsituatie-type gerelateerd aan ouderlijke kenmerken en het opleidingsniveau van het kind.


Session 1c: Generation Y 11.15-12.45 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Francis van der Mooren Name: Ekaterina Mitrofanova Organization: National Research University

The Russian Generation Y in reproductive and matrimonial spheres

Norms, values, and behaviour of young Russians differ from generations which have grown up in the Soviet Union. Members of Generation Y have a big privilege to behave not as they are told but as they want. Such a big change as an appearance of freedom in all spheres of life produces new models of thinking and acting. Using representative data of European Social Survey and Generations and Gender Survey, we analyzed it with the most recent methods such as Event history analysis and Sequence analysis. Our results demonstrate the gap between generations. It becomes apparent in postponing of the first matrimonial and reproductive events of the new generation. Young people prefer unregistered unions, they bear children regardless of the type of the union, and they are much more open to new forms and ways of living together.


Session 1c: Generation Y 11.15-12.45 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Francis van der Mooren Name: Lenny Stoeldraijer Organization: CBS

Economische crisis, krapte op de woningmarkt en hotel mama: jongeren blijven langer thuis wonen

De slechte economische situatie, stijgende jeugdwerkloosheid en stagnatie op de woningmarkt noopt jongeren langer thuis te blijven wonen. Sinds 2007 steeg de gemiddelde leeftijd bij uit huis gaan met ruim een half jaar, waarbij vooral de versnelling van de stijging na 2009 opmerkelijk is. Daarnaast trekt ook een groter aantal weer bij de ouders in. Een vergelijking van de gemeentelijke verschillen in het uit huis gaan tussen de jaren 1996 en 2003 liet zien dat de ruimtelijke patronen behoorlijk stabiel waren (de Jong e.a. 2006). In veel gemeenten in de meer perifere provincies verlaten jongeren het ouderlijk huis eerder dan jongeren in gemeenten in de meer centraal gelegen provincies. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Den Haag en Utrecht nemen een speciale plaats in: hier verlaten jongeren eerder dan gemiddeld het ouderlijk huis. De vraag is of de verandering in de gemiddelde leeftijd waarop jongeren uit huis gaan in de recente jaren ook invloed heeft gehad op het ruimtelijk patroon. Is bijvoorbeeld de gedragsverandering in gemeenten met een krappe woningmarkt sterker dan in andere gemeenten geweest? Uit voorlopige resultaten blijkt dat de vier grote steden geen speciale plaats meer innemen: de gemiddelde leeftijd bij uit huis gaan is momenteel gelijk aan het Nederlands gemiddelde.


Session 1c: Generation Y 11.15-12.45 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Francis van der Mooren Name: Tanja Traag and Francis van der Mooren Organization: CBS

Onderwijs- en beroepsloopbaan door de generaties heen

De afgelopen decennia hebben zich in het onderwijs en de arbeidsmarkt verschillende veranderingen voorgedaan. Jongeren volgen niet alleen langer onderwijs dan eerdere generaties, ook hebben meer jongeren het hoger onderwijs met een diploma verlaten. Verder is het voor vrouwen in de loop der jaren gebruikelijker geworden om te gaan werken en is het aandeel vrouwen met betaald werk onder de huidige twintigers dus hoger dan onder oudere cohorten. Dergelijke ontwikkelingen kunnen in beeld worden gebracht door middel van een databestand dat is samengesteld op basis van de Enquête Beroepsbevolking (EBB) en de Arbeidskrachtentellingen (AKT), en waarin gegevens over onderwijs en arbeidsparticipatie beschikbaar zijn voor de jaren 1973 tot en met 2012. Met behulp van dit databestand worden generaties starters op de arbeidsmarkt met elkaar vergeleken en wordt de vraag beantwoord hoe de huidige generatie starters het doet vergeleken met oudere cohorten toen die als starter op de arbeidsmarkt kwamen. Onderwerpen die onder andere aan bod komen zijn de werkloosheid onder starters en het hebben van een vaste of een tijdelijke baan. Daarbij wordt rekening gehouden met een aantal achtergrondkenmerken, zoals het onderscheid tussen jonge mannen en jonge vrouwen.


Session 1d: Fertility 11.15-12.45 – Belle van Zuylenzaal Chairman: Eva-Maria Merz Name: Marieke Houben-van Herten en Dorly Deeg Organization: CBS

Geboortecijfers

Achtergrond: Het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) verzamelt permanent cijfers over geboorte, sterfte en gezondheid onder de Nederlandse bevolking van 0 jaar en ouder. Doel: Het monitoren van bevolking- en sterftecijfers en gezondheidsuitkomsten in Nederland. In deze presentatie zullen enkele cijfers rondom de geboorte worden gepresenteerd. Resultaten: In 2012 werden 175 457 kinderen geboren. De pas geboren jongens hadden een gemiddelde levensverwachting van 79.1 jaar, meisjes 82.2 jaar. In de periode 2010/2012 werd 78 % van de kinderen in het ziekenhuis geboren en 21 % thuis. Kinderen wogen gemiddeld 3413 gram en waren gemiddeld 50 cm groot. Bijna 95 procent van de 0-4 jarigen bezocht het consultatiebureau. Ruim 95 % van de moeders die in de periode 2010/2012 meededen aan de gezondheidsenquête en aangaven in de afgelopen 2 jaar bevallen te zijn heeft gebruik gemaakt van kraamzorg. Ten opzichte van de periode 1989/1991 is het percentage ziekenhuisbevallingen gestegen van 61.2 naar 78 %. Het geboortegewicht is in deze periode lichtjes toegenomen terwijl de lengte nagenoeg constant is gebleven. Het percentage 0-4 jarigen dat het consultatiebureau bezocht is gestegen sinds 2001/2003. Conclusie: Het percentage ziekenhuisbevallingen is de afgelopen jaren toegenomen. Meer kinderen bezochten het consultatiebureau in 2010/2012.


Session 1d: Fertility 11.15-12.45 – Belle van Zuylenzaal Chairman: Eva-Maria Merz Name: Suzanne Loozen Organization: CBS

In wat voor gezin worden kinderen geboren?

Uit recente gegevens blijkt dat ruim vier op de tien kinderen buiten het huwelijk wordt geboren. Van de eerstgeborenen is dat zelfs iets meer dan de helft. Vaak betreft het geboorten bij samenwonende paren. Bijna één op de tien levendgeborenen heeft een alleenstaande moeder. Over geboorten, waarbij onderscheid wordt gemaakt tussen ongehuwd paar en alleenstaande moeder, zullen rond september nieuwe StatLine-tabellen verschijnen. Aan de hand van deze gegevens wordt duidelijk hoe het gezin waarin een kind wordt geboren eruit ziet: uit hoeveel personen bestaat dat gezin en hoeveel kinderen maken deel uit van dat gezin? Hierbij worden zowel biologische als stiefbroertjes en – zusjes die in hetzelfde gezin wonen, meegeteld. Ook komt informatie beschikbaar over eventuele wijzigingen in de samenleefvorm van de moeder binnen afzienbare tijd na de geboorte van het kind: bijvoorbeeld van ongehuwd samenwonend naar gehuwd samenwonend, van alleenstaand naar samenwonend etc. Voorts wordt duidelijk of dat soort wijzigingen vaker plaatsvinden na de geboorte van het éérste kind dan na de geboorte van een tweede of volgend kind.


Session 1d: Fertility 11.15-12.45 – Belle van Zuylenzaal Chairman: Eva-Maria Merz Name: Karel Neels Organization: Universiteit Antwerpen

Postponement and recuperation of first births in Europe: the effect of economic and institutional contexts over the life-course

Postponement of parenthood contributed heavily to the emergence of subreplacement fertility in Europe in the 1980s and 1990s. Recuperation of fertility has gained importance in determining period fertility levels and is associated with policies that reduce the opportunity costs of fertility and support dual earners in combining work and family. We use data from the European Social Survey to assess the impact of economic and policy contexts on first birth hazards of men and women in 14 EU countries between 1970 and 2005. Using multilevel discrete-time hazard models, we focus on differential effects of these contextual factors by age, gender and socio-economic position. Results show that adverse economic conditions significantly reduce first birth hazards of both men and women below age 30, with effect being more pronounced among the higher educated. After age 30, family policies contribute to the recuperation of fertility but the effects vary by socio-economic group.


Session 1d: Fertility 11.15-12.45 – Belle van Zuylenzaal Chairman: Eva-Maria Merz Name: Billie de Haas Organization: Population Research Centre, University of Groningen (RUG)

Challenging culture: the role of personal experiences in abstinence-only education in Uganda

Little is known about the role of personal experiences in teachers’ motivations to teach sexuality education. Cultural schema theory is utilized to explore teachers’ personal experiences with abstinence and premarital sex and to explain how teaching of sexuality education is motivated by such experiences. In-depth interviews were conducted with 40 teachers in Kampala, capital of Uganda. The interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using grounded theory. Preliminary findings show that a majority of the teachers recall negative experiences of premarital sex or positive experiences of abstinence. The emotions evoked by these personal experiences are found to comply with cultural schemas of teaching abstinence-only and to interact with teachers’ goal of contributing to the social well-being of their students. The teachers want to be a role model for their students. Therefore, they usually do not share their personal experiences with students nor do they explain to them that they want to prevent them from experiencing the same negative consequences of premarital sex. Alternatively, teachers may urge students to abstain because of cultural or religious reasons or because of perceived risks for students including expulsion from school, pregnancy and HIV/AIDS.


Session 1e: Inequalities 14.00-15.30 – Kernkampkamer Chairman: Arieke Rijken Name: George Groenewold and Helga de Valk Organization: NIDI

Acculturation and Transnational Orientation of the Turkish Second Generation in 11 European Cities

With almost 5 million people, the Turkish community is the largest foreign-born community in Europe. About half comprises youth and young adults born and raised in EU countries, called second generation Turks. In the past decade, public discourse about their social and economic integration increased and was spurred by the current economic crisis which disproportionally affects their employment and social inclusion prospects. Second generation Turks maintain social capital in their EU country of birth and in parents’ country of origin (Turkey) and are therefore oriented towards their country of residence and Turkey. Growing up with transnational linkages and dual loyalties may lead to psychosocial difficulties in terms of identification and belonging. So far, transnational orientations and behavior of the second generation has not yet been studied in detail. Based on survey data collected of second generation Turkish respondents, 18-35 years old, in 11 cities in Austria, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland, this study examines (1) to what extent psychosocial and contextual drivers affect identification with and preferences for the national society culture and own ethnic group culture, and (2) how drivers and preferences relate and affect transnational orientation towards Turkey.


Session 1e: Inequalities 14.00-15.30 – Kernkampkamer Chairman: Arieke Rijken Name: Auke Vlonk Organization: Jan van Es Instituut

Expected and actual demand for care in deprived neighbourhoods

In the Wijkscan (http://wijkscan.com) data about age, (household) incomes, ethnicity and household composition is available at the lowest possible geographical level (buildings and dwellings). Those data have been joined with indicators (by age, income and ethnicity) about episodes of all diseases in primary and secondary care for all of the Netherlands. This makes it possible to predict the expected demand for care of all diseases for the whole of the Netherlands. The Wijkscan data have been joined with patient data (postal code, age, episode codes) of 80 health centers consisting of 450.000 patients, among others in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague. Some of these centers are located in (partially) deprived neighbourhoods. This research will especially focus on the differences in income between the neighbourhood and practice population and differences between expected and actual demand for care in health centers in (partially) deprived areas. Analyses show that the actual demand for care is higher than the expected demand for care, even when corrected for the distribution of the population of a practice. During this summer other analyses regarding income and demand for care will be conducted. The final results will be presented at the conference.


Session 1e: Inequalities 14.00-15.30 – Kernkampkamer Chairman: Arieke Rijken Name: Gregory Besjes Organization: CBS

Als het gras bij de buren groener is: Leidt lokale ongelijkheid tot criminaliteit?

Het verband tussen armoede (absolute deprivatie) en criminaliteit is al vaak bevestigd. Ook wordt vaak een verband verondersteld tussen economische ongelijkheid (relatieve deprivatie) en criminaliteit. Hoewel armoede en ongelijkheid termen zijn die regelmatig door elkaar worden gebruikt, is dit vaak ten onrechte; zo vinden we in Nederland de grootste ongelijkheid in gemeentes als Wassenaar en Bloemendaal, plaatsen die men niet meteen met armoede associeert. Onderzoeken waarin in het verband tussen economische ongelijkheid en criminaliteit empirisch worden getoetst zijn beperkt gedocumenteerd en voornamelijk op een hoog aggregatieniveau uitgevoerd, bijvoorbeeld het vergelijken van landen onderling. In de literatuur wordt echter gepleit om dit op een lager aggregatieniveau uit te voeren omdat er voorbij wordt gegaan aan de plaatselijke ongelijkheid en verschillen in demografische, juridische en culturele factoren tussen de onderlinge landen. Daarom toetsen we in dit onderzoek de hypothese of economische ongelijkheid op lokaal niveau de kans vergroot om een misdrijf te plegen. Met lokaal bedoelen we op gemeenteniveau of indien nodig een nog lager aggregatieniveau. Wat verder uniek is aan dit onderzoek is dat het zal plaatsvinden op individueel niveau voor de gehele Nederlandse bevolking (registerdata) met het jaar 2010 als peilmoment.


Session 2a: Intergenerational Relations 14.00-15.30 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Nina Conkova

Name: Theo van Tilburg Organization: Sociologie, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU)

The Impact of Parental Health on Older Parents' Contact with Stepchildren over 17 Years

The ‘structural’ hypothesis assumes that contact with stepchildren lags behind contact with biological children. The ‘needs’ hypothesis stresses the importance of intergenerational contact in old age, and assumes increasing contact with adult stepchildren when parents age and develop disabilities. This study examines the impact of parental health on contact frequency in steprelationships. Data are from 196 stepparents (54-91 years old; 576 biological and 458 adult stepchildren) in the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (observations 1992-2009). Most steprelationships are characterized by insignificant contact (39%) or infrequent contact (33%); within 28% contact is at least weekly. Regression shows that contact frequency within steprelationships is higher among stepfathers, stepparents shorter in a stepfamily, co-residing stepparents, with few biological children, when travelling distance is small, and when subjective health is good. Results do not support the ‘needs’ hypothesis and suggest that the role of steprelationships in old age may be limited for current generations of old stepparents.


Session 2a: Intergenerational Relations 14.00-15.30 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Nina Conkova

Name: Clara Mulder, Annika Smits & Caroline Dewilde Organization: Population Research Centre, University of Groningen (RUG)

The role of family in the transition to homeownership in Europe

We investigate the extent to which the intergenerational transmission of homeownership differs across countries. Our main hypothesis is that the impact of parental homeownership on the likelihood of an adult child’s entry into homeownership is stronger in countries where mortgages are less widespread, and where the family plays a bigger role in the provision of welfare. We perform discrete-time event history analyses of the transition to first-time homeownership using the retrospective SHARELIFE data for 11 European countries, collected in 2008/2009. Our preliminary findings show surprisingly little variation in the impact of parental homeownership on adult children’s homeownership across countries. In most countries the likelihood of an adult child’s entry into homeownership is 25-50% greater if the parents were owner-occupiers than if they were not. The few countries where the impact is smaller and statistically insignificant are not especially those where the family is particularly important in welfare provision.


Session 2a: Intergenerational Relations 14.00-15.30 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Nina Conkova Name: Daniël Herbers Organization: Population Research Centre, University of Groningen (RUG)

Family-life and wellbeing at older ages

At older ages support and social interaction becomes more focused on family members because of reduced networks at these ages. Therefore it is necessary to understand how changes and situations in the family career affect wellbeing at older ages. Several studies have shown that family relations, particularly the relationship with a partner, are important to people’s wellbeing. Subjective wellbeing can be positively affected by partnership, and negatively by union dissolution. Whether the loss of a partner affects wellbeing for only a short time or for a longer period is a point of discussion. Other studies have emphasized the role of children on older person’s wellbeing through, for example, providing support. Different waves of SHARE (Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe) are used for the analysis of life satisfaction (0-10). We find that separated and widowed persons are less satisfied compared to those in their first marriage, irrespective of the number of years since the dissolution. Frequent contact with children is found to be positive for life satisfaction, although we find mixed evidence evaluating groups of countries separately. The impact of the housing career on wellbeing will be explored in more detail.


Session 2a: Intergenerational Relations 14.00-15.30 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Nina Conkova Name: Thomas Emery Organization: NIDI

Intergenerational Support and Societal Ageing

This paper examines whether transfers of time and money will be affected by the changing age structure of the population. By combining data from multiple micro datasets, a model of transfer behaviour is developed and marginal effects extracted. Demographic projections from the UN are then incorporated to produce estimates of transfer behaviour up until 2030 in 15 European Countries. The analysis demonstrates that any increase in downward support will be mild and short lived with a long run decline in total transfers. This finding is consistent for financial transfers, grandchild care and other volunteer activities. This finding is supported by the findings of the wider literature. 50-65 year olds are the primary source of downward financial transfers whilst older groups are rarely the source of financial assistance (Kohli, 1999). Given that societal ageing is projected to cause a disproportionate rise in the number of this latter older category, it is unsurprising that a fall is forecast. The models also allow for cross national analyses that demonstrate the anticipated variation in transfer behaviour across differing demographic scenarios. The conclusions undermine the assertion that societal ageing will bring with it a dividend of informal support from older generations to younger generations.


Session 2b: Morbidity and Mortality 14.00-15.30 – Eijmankamer Chairman: Fanny Janssen Name: Bijlsma M.J., Janssen F., Bos H., Vansteelandt S. and Hak E. Organization: Rijksuniversiteit Groningen (RUG), Farmacie, Farmacoepidemiologie & Farmacoeconomie Effectiveness of statin use in reducing cardiovascular mortality in birth cohorts in the Netherlands (1994 – 2011): analysis of aggregated data.

Background: Differences between birth cohorts exist in behaviour and health. Due to these differences, drug effectiveness may also differ between cohorts. Drug effectiveness is conventionally studied without taking into account the birth cohort dimension. Statins are drugs which lower blood cholesterol levels and may thereby reduce cardiovascular mortality. Objective: To determine if the effects of statins on cardiovascular mortality differ between birth cohorts in the Netherlands in the period 1994 to 2011. Methods: Population at risk and cardiovascular mortality data was used from Statistics Netherlands. Outpatient pharmacy data came from a drug prescription database in the Netherlands (IADB.nl). We use an age-period-cohort characteristic model; incidence of mortality is used as a response in a generalized linear model with age, birth cohort and prevalence of statin use as primary predictors. Prevalence of diabetes and other cardiovascular medications were used as controls. Interactions are used to measure birth cohort specific statin effectiveness. Results: We expect cohorts born in different historical periods to have different levels of effectiveness.


Session 2b: Morbidity and Mortality 14.00-15.30 – Eijmankamer Chairman: Fanny Janssen Name: Eva Kibele and Patrick Präg Organization: University of Groningen (RUG)

Distortion of regional old-age mortality rates due to migration prior to death in the Netherlands?

Regional mortality differences are an important public health indicator and can serve as the basis for population forecasts and local planning. Given the extent of health-related migration at old age, we assess whether internal migration in late life has the potential to distort (differences in) regional old-age mortality. Using data from the Dutch population register we analyzed migration and death rates in the population aged 80+ across the Dutch provinces, COROP regions and municipalities in 20022006. Conventionally calculated (regional differences in) death rates are compared to hypothetical ones where migration in the three years prior to death is disregarded. Internal migration among people aged 80+ years is higher over short distances, higher for women, and higher for those who died in the observation period. Many of the municipalities, whose mortality rates significantly differ from the Dutch average in the conventional way, show no significant differences anymore in the hypothetical approach. Regional mortality variation across the municipalities decreases significantly if migration prior to death is disregarded. For the provinces and COROP regions, there are only few differences between the scenarios. Migration flows prior to death have the potential to significantly distort regional old-age mortality rates and patterns.


Session 2b: Morbidity and Mortality 14.00-15.30 – Eijmankamer Chairman: Fanny Janssen Name: A.H.P. Luijben Organization: RIVM

Scenario's voor overlijden in Nederland

Wat zullen in 2040 de belangrijkste doodsoorzaken zijn waaraan de Nederlanders overlijden? Hoe zullen de doodsoorzaken verschillen tussen mannen en vrouwen? Om een antwoord te krijgen op dergelijke vragen over de toekomstige sterfte, is data vanaf 1996 gemodelleerd en geprojecteerd. Voor een selectie van doodsoorzaken wordt, per combinatie van doodsoorzaak, geslacht en leeftijdscategorie, het aantal overledenen geschat met multilevel Poissonmodellen. Als verklarende variabelen zijn de vroegere rookprevalentie, het aantal scholingsjaren en de zorgkosten per hoofd van de bevolking gebruikt. Op basis van het model met de beste fit wordt het toekomstige aantal mensen dat overlijdt (totaal en per leeftijdcategorie) geschat. Hierbij worden CBS-bevolkingsprognose en prognoses van de verklarende variabelen gebruikt. Voor de volkgezondheidstoekomstverkenning van het RIVM wordt dit trendscenario afgezet tegen alternatieve scenario’s.


Session 2b: Morbidity and Mortality 14.00-15.30 – Eijmankamer Chairman: Fanny Janssen Name: Aletta Dijkstra Organization: Rijksuniversiteit Groningen (RUG), afdeling farmacie

Using demographic composition and socio-economic profile to identify areas with high prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus

Type 2 diabetes mellitus can be prevented by lifestyle interventions, targeting the local level. A model to predict high prevalence areas is useful. Demographic composition, socioeconomic profile, and access to care are important to explain local health and may be used in a prediction model. Using the University of Groningen pharmacy database IADB.nl, we estimated the five-year prevalence of T2DM medication use (2005-2009) in persons aged 45+ at four-digit postal code level for two Dutch areas, totaling 141 postal codes. Statistics Netherlands supplied data on potential predictors. We composed variables for socio-economic profile, ageing and access to care and dichotomized medication use prevalence into “high” and “low”. We used logistic regression to predict prevalence categories and explored spatial variation in this model. In our first area (Groningen-Veendam) the smoothed prevalence of T2DM medication use ranged from 5.0% to 24.3%; In the second area (Zwolle-Kampen-Noordoostpolder) it ranged from 6.2% to 20.2%. Socioeconomic profile, ageing and access to care were all significant to explain T2DM medication use. The model was verified using internal validation methods. Our results demonstrate the importance of socio-economic profile, ageing and access to care variables for explaining and projecting local health care use for type 2 diabetes mellitus.


Session 2c: Gender and Employment 14.00-15.30 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Katia Begall Name: Katia Chkalova and Niels C. Kooiman Organization: CBS

‘The end of men’ era arrives in Dutch suburbia: Closing Gender Employment Gap in the Netherlands

While the male’s employment rate in shrink areas in the Netherlands decreases, the female’s employment rate keeps rising in these areas. This results in closing the employment gender gap in these regions. This article explores two possible explanations for this phenomenon. First, structural changes of the local labour market are examined. The focus lies on the growth of the service industries and tertiary sector and growth of the part-time jobs that are popular among the female work force. The second explanation for the closing employment gender gap is sought in the ‘added worker effect’. This effect occurs when wives try to compensate for the income loss due to their spouses’ unemployment by entering the labour market, which consequently raises the female employment rate. Using the Social Statistical Database (SSD) we are able to examine this effect on the micro level, while taking into account for the structural changes of the local labour market.


Session 2c: Gender and Employment 14.00-15.30 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Katia Begall Name: Wike Been Organization: Universiteit Utrecht (UU) Overwegingen van topmanagers omtrent werk-prive regelingen in een tijd van economische crisis

Door de vergrijzing zal de druk op de werkende generatie toenemen, waardoor een steeds grotere noodzaak ontstaat om werk en zorgtaken te combineren. Werk-privé regelingen geïmplementeerd door werkgevers maken het makkelijker om werk en zorg te combineren. In dit paper onderzoeken we de overwegingen van Nederlandse topmanagers rondom werkprivé regelingen en veranderingen in deze overwegingen over tijd. Hiertoe gebruiken we 26 semigestructureerde interviews die in 2008 en 2011 zijn gehouden binnen 13 Nederlandse organisaties. De analyse van de interviews laat zien dat werk-privé regelingen in toenemende mate door de topmanagers als ‘normaal’ worden bestempeld binnen hun organisatie en door henzelf. Belangrijk is voor de topmanagers echter wel dat het zowel de werknemers als de organisatie ten goede komt. De topmanagers stellen voorwaarden voor het gebruik van werk-privé regelingen om negatieve consequenties voor de organisatie te reduceren. Overheidsregelgeving is ook belangrijk in de overwegingen van topmanagers. Regelingen die in de wet zijn vastgelegd worden door hen als normaal gepercipieerd. Desalniettemin willen ze wel graag de controle houden over de uitvoer van het beleid in hun eigen organisatie. Als de overheidsregelgeving niet specifiek is zullen ze daarom van deze vrijheid gebruik maken om voorwaarden te stellen aan het gebruik van de regelingen.


Session 2c: Gender and Employment 14.00-15.30 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Katia Begall Name: Lieselotte Blommaert Organization: Universiteit Utrecht (UU)

Vrouwen en mannen in hogere managementposities in Nederland, 1985-2008

Het is bekend dat vrouwen in Nederland minder vaak (hogere) managementposities bekleden dan mannen. Veel minder weten we over veranderingen in de mate waarin mannen en vrouwen managementposities bekleden over de tijd heen; in hoeverre is het percentage vrouwen in managementposities de afgelopen decennia toegenomen? Bovendien is er nog veel onduidelijk over de processen die leiden tot kleinere of juist grotere kansen voor vrouwen om managementposities te bereiken. In dit artikel onderzoeken we ten eerste in hoeverre de aantallen vrouwen en mannen in (hogere) managementposities de afgelopen vijfentwintig jaar veranderd zijn. Ten tweede bestuderen we of trends op dit gebied samenhangen met veranderingen in economische omstandigheden, de arbeidsmarktstructuur, of normen. We gebruiken daarvoor gegevens van meerdere ‘waves’ van het Arbeidsaanbodpanel dat vergelijkbare, longitudinale data bevat over de periode 1985-2010, aangevuld met gegevens uit andere bronnen.


Session 2d: Marriage and Fertility 14.00-15.30 – Belle van Zuyvenzaal Chairman: Karel Neels Name: Jennifer Holland Organization: NIDI

The meaning of marriage vis-à-vis childbearing in Europe and the United State

Across Europe and in the United States, births outside of marriage account for between 20(e.g., Italy and Spain) to more than 50-percent of births (e.g., Norway and Sweden) (Sobotka and Toulemon 2008). As a consequence, some have suggested that marriage is decoupling from the childbearing process and may be an outmoded institution (Heuveline and Timberlake 2004; Kiernan 2001). However, it is likely that the presence of children is still linked to marriage. Extending previous work conducted in Sweden (Holland Forthcoming, Demographic Research), I argue that the temporal ordering of childbearing and marriage is informative as to the meaning of marriage. Using a typology of marriage based on the timing of marriage relative to first conception and birth, age of youngest child, and parity, I explore differences in the meaning of marriage across 15 European countries and the United States and by individual-level characteristics, including: cohort, educational attainment, foreignborn status, and background characteristics including maternal education and employment, and parental marital status. The paper demonstrates heterogeneity between and within countries in the meaning of modern-day marriage vis-à-vis childbearing.


Session 2d: Marriage and Fertility 14.00-15.30 – Belle van Zuyvenzaal Chairman: Karel Neels Name: Darak Shrinivas Organization: Population Research Center, University of Groningen (RUG)

Fertility inhibiting role of the proximate determinants of fertility among HIV infected Indian women

The determinants of fertility among HIV infected women are not well understood. The framework of proximate determinants of fertility proposed by Bongaarts and Potters (1983) was applied to retrospectively collected calendar data of 622 ever married HIV infected women from Maharashtra, India. The indices of proximate determinants were compared with HIV negative women (NFHS-3) and with other socio-demographic variables among HIV infected women. The decision-making related to proximate determinants was explored descriptively. The TFR among HIV infected women is lower compared to HIV un-infected women. The index of marriage had the most significant role in determining fertility among HIV infected women. Female sterilization and condoms were the most common contraceptive methods used by HIV infected women. Forty six percent of the pregnancies that occurred after the knowledge about HIV positive status of the woman were voluntarily terminated either because the pregnancy was unwanted or due to lack of knowledge and lack of availability of services for prevention of HIV transmission from the mother to the child. The recent scale-up of anti-retroviral treatment might lead to increased duration of marriage. This would generate even higher demand for more effective contraception among infected women to prevent unwanted pregnancies and subsequent induced abortions.


Session 2d: Marriage and Fertility 14.00-15.30 – Belle van Zuyvenzaal Chairman: Karel Neels Name: Alessandra Carioli Organization: NIDI and University of Groningen (RUG)

Forecasting Fertility Rates: A Functional Principal Components Approach

The present paper aims to forecast sub-national Spanish fertility time series using Functional Principal Component Analysis. The data used in the forecast are time series of age specific fertility rates obtained using Census and Municipal Register data for the 50 Spanish provinces. The approach applies Time Series Forecasting using Functional Principal Component Analysis (Hyndman and Booth 2008; Hyndman and Ullah 2007) and consists of three stages. Fertility schedules are smoothed using before applying principal component decomposition, used for the forecasting Age Specific Fertility Schedules and Total Fertility Rates 15 years into the future. This method has been applied for Spain, at the regional level followed by provincial forecasts. Heterogeneity is present across the sub-national level as some regions and provinces show a diverging increasing trend, such as the North and part of Central Spain, which still place fertility closed to replacement levels. Moreover, provinces that exhibited historical homogeneity of fertility trends, such as the Catalan speaking area show very similar fertility and age-specific fertility schedule trends. To check for the reliability of the model we have implemented two different methods, which suggest the forecasting method is reliable over a 15 years horizon. Even though period and cohort fertility analysis suggests heterogeneity among different provinces and shows recuperation of fertility in some selected areas, the recent economic crisis effects on TFR are rather substantial and tend to level off such heterogeneity. This is reflected in the forecasts of national, regional and provincial fertility schedules, where fertility shows a stable and slightly declining pattern, with the exception of some regions and provinces where fertility decline has been less severe and thus the forecast has not been affected as much as other areas.


Session 2d: Marriage and Fertility 14.00-15.30 – Belle van Zuyvenzaal Chairman: Karel Neels Name: Jonas Wood and Karel Neels Organization: Universiteit Antwerpen

The effect of Family policy uptake on second births in Europe

Researchers have increasingly raised questions on the effects of family policy on fertility and literature reviews indicate mixed results. Less research has been done relating the uptake of family policy rather than the availability to family formation, although evidence has been found for differential uptake patterns for population subgroups. Some research finds a positive effect of uptake of parental leave after the first birth on continued childbearing. However literature lacks investigations of the effects for countries other than Nordic European countries. A second shortcoming in the literature is that available publications acknowledge that take-up of parental leave is likely to be correlated with higher fertility desires, but do not separate self-selection from causal effects. The aim of this paper is to separate self-selection from causal effects of leave use on second births for European countries. Further differential effects by age, gender, education and country are investigated. Results indicate a positive association between second births and leave uptake especially among men and women aged over 30. In order to ensure causality of effects the authors will proceed to model leave use after first birth and second births in a joint multiprocess model controlling for time-constant unobserved heterogeneity using the aML/MlwiN software.


Session 3a: Family and Employment 16.00-17.30 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Wike Been Name: Maike van Damme Organization: Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF)

Divorce and changes in social status for women

Divorce is generally known to negatively affect people’s social status, especially women’s. This paper examines the shifts in occupational status women experience after divorce. Under the scenario of a traditional role division between men and women, most women derived their social status from the occupational position of their husband. This would be either because a male breadwinner model was followed, or because women’s employment involved a lower occupational status than men’s. Consequently, a divorce would trigger a downward shift in a woman’s social status. With increasing female employment participation as well as increasing educational homogamy between partners, this pattern may be changing. Additionally, new inequalities might be generated among women as the negative social status consequences of divorce depend on the level of homogamy before union dissolution as well as women’s prior employment. Using the BHPS the aim of the paper is threefold: we establish 1- the patterns of social status change prior and after divorce (descriptive and explanatory); 2- to what extent divorce leads to an increase or reduction of inequality in social status between women (comparing coefficients of variation); 3- to what extent patterns of homogamy influence changes in social status after divorce (using decomposition methods).


Session 3a: Family and Employment 16.00-17.30 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Wike Been Name: Katia Begall Organization: Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main

The transition to parenthood, attitudes towards work, and women’s roles and the division of paid and unpaid work in couples: sel

The aim of this study is to gain more insight into how the transition to parenthood is related to attitudes about gender roles and the importance of paid work as well as the division of paid and unpaid work in couples (selection). Furthermore we will examine whether and how the transition to parenthood affects these attitudes and the division of work of the couple (adaptation). Using Dutch panel data (NKPS) we employ measurements of attitudes and the division of work before the first child is born and examine changes in these attitudes, the division of work, and the birth of a child respectively three years and six years after the initial data collection. The data are analyzed using structural equation models. Results show that women with less traditional gender attitudes less likely to have a child and that dual-earner couples are more likely to become parents. Becoming a parent decreases women’s attitude on the commitment to paid work while it strengthens commitment to work in men, but parenthood does not affect gender attitudes. Concerning the division of labor, less traditional gender attitudes and being a dual earner couple is associated with a more equal division of household work.


Session 3a: Family and Employment 16.00-17.30 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Wike Been Name: Karel Neels and David de Wachter Organization: Universiteit Antwerpen

Postponement and recuperation of first births in Europe: the effect of economic and institutional contexts over the life-course

Postponement of parenthood contributed heavily to the emergence of subreplacement fertility in Europe in the 1980s and 1990s. Recuperation of fertility has gained importance in determining period fertility levels and is associated with policies that reduce the opportunity costs of fertility and support dual earners in combining work and family. We use data from the European Social Survey to assess the impact of economic and policy contexts on first birth hazards of men and women in 14 EU countries between 1970 and 2005. Using multilevel discrete-time hazard models, we focus on differential effects of these contextual factors by age, gender and socio-economic position. Results show that adverse economic conditions significantly reduce first birth hazards of both men and women below age 30, with effect being more pronounced among the higher educated. After age 30, family policies contribute to the recuperation of fertility but the effects vary by socio-economic group.


Session 3a: Family and Employment 16.00-17.30 – Kannunikenzaal Chairman: Wike Been Name: Djamila Schans Organization: WODC

Au pairs in Nederland: Culturele uitwisseling of arbeidsmigratie?

Een au pair mag gedurende maximaal één jaar in een gastgezin verblijven om kennis te maken met de Nederlandse cultuur en samenleving. Als tegenprestatie voor kost en inwoning en een financiële vergoeding van maximaal € 340 per maand is het toegestaan dat een au pair lichte huishoudelijke werkzaamheden voor het gastgezin verricht en helpt bij de verzorging van kinderen. De laatste jaren neemt het aantal au pairs dat van buiten de Europese Unie naar Nederland komt toe. Dit onderzoek gaat in op de motivaties van zowel au pairs als gastgezinnen als ook op de ervaringen van beide groepen. Er wordt gebruik gemaakt van zowel kwantitatieve gegevens verkregen via een web enquête (N=270) als van kwalitatieve gegevens (N=40). Op basis van de resultaten is een typologie ontwikkeld van de verschillende vormen die het au pairschap kan aannemen.


Session 3b: Unions 16.00-17.30 – Belle van Zuyvenzaal Chairman: Jennifer Holland Name: Nicole Hiekel Organization: NIDI

To marry or to separate. The association between meaning of cohabitation and relationship transitions of cohabiters.

Most studies on cohabitation treat cohabitation as a homogeneous phenomenon. We propose a typology of different meanings of cohabitation based on cohabiters’ attitudes towards marriage and their intentions to marry. We examine whether the types of cohabitation are differently associated with subsequent marriage and separation in eastern and western Germany. Using data (N= 1,278) from the German family panel (Pairfam) and a supplementary sample (DemoDiff), we find that cohabiters are a heterogeneous group. Competing risk analyses show that cohabiters who consider cohabitation a stage in the marriage process are most likely to marry and least likely to separate as compared to those who refuse marriage or consider it to be irrelevant. Eastern and western German cohabiters differ in the mix of meanings attached to cohabitation, with western Germans more often envisaging marriage. Refusing the institution of marriage has different consequences for the transition to marriage in east and west Germany.


Session 3b: Unions 16.00-17.30 – Belle van Zuyvenzaal Chairman: Jennifer Holland Name: Jorik Vergauwen Organization: Universiteit Antwerpen

The planning status of (non-)marital fertility and its educational gradient in 9 European countries

According to the theory of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) highly educated individuals can be considered as the forerunners in the diffusion of unmarried cohabitation as they show a higher tolerance towards non-traditional living arrangements. Despite the SDT framework, literature reviews conclude that the educational role in the spread of cohabitation differs substantially between countries. Notwithstanding the increasing popularity of consensual unions, considerable diversity in meaning, prevalence and legal status of these living arrangements persists. Recently, research efforts have shown a negative educational gradient of non-marital childbearing. As a result, it has been suggested that the relationship between education on the one hand and union and family formation on the other hand has changed. SDT-like behaviour may have become a sign of impoverishment. Despite the growing body of literature on non-marital fertility, research explicitly addressing the link between socio-economic position, fertility and union preferences and non-marital fertility has remained limited. We lack information on whether individuals having children in cohabitation actually planned to do so and whether the planning status differs between educational groups. Using the GGS infrastructure we investigate the educational gradient of short-term marriage and fertility intentions. Subsequently, we analyse the educational gradient of (non-)realization of (non-)marital births.


Session 3b: Unions 16.00-17.30 – Belle van Zuyvenzaal Chairman: Jennifer Holland Name: Maja Djundeva and Melinda Mills Organization: University of Groningen (RUG)

Personality traits and parthership

A vast literature exists on the determinants of demographic behaviour and outcomes, which includes the timing and number of children or relationships. However, this literature has mainly focused on socioeconomic factors such as the impact of education, occupation or work-related factors (e.g., Begall & Mills 2011, 2012). Despite the fact that concepts and measures from psychology might also help explaining the complex demographic behaviour, there has been limited use of psychological variables in demographic research. The aim of this paper is to explore which personality traits are associated with particular partnership states, in order to explore more broadly the relationship between personality and partnership family trajectories. Using unique large sample from the multidimensional cohort study LifeLines, we go beyond the examination of partnership events (remaining single, cohabitation, marriage, divorce, remarriage and LAT relationships) and personality, in light of elucidating the relative importance of personality traits (competence, anger-hostility, self-consciousness, impulsivity, excitement seeking, self-discipline, vulnerability and deliberation) and their differential association to particular demographic life course patterns.


Session 3b: Unions 16.00-17.30 – Belle van Zuyvenzaal Chairman: Jennifer Holland Name: Katya Ivanova Organization: Universiteit van Amsterdam (UvA)

My friends, your friends, our friends: Differences between first and higher-order unions

Various explanations have been put forward for the higher dissolution risk of higher order unions including the incomplete institutionalization of remarriage in society (Cherlin, 1978), as well as, possible selectivity in background characteristics (Castro Martin & Bumpass, 1989; Poortman & Lyngstad, 2007). In this work, we also examine differences between first and higher-order unions which could account for the potential greater instability of second unions. Kelley and Thibaut’s Interdependence Theory (1978) and Rusbult’s Investment Model (Rusbult, 1980, 1983) suggest that the probability to persists in a relationship is increased by higher level of commitment to the union which is preceded by high satisfaction with the relationship, low quality of alternatives, and high investment size. In our work, we focus on one type of investment in particular, namely, the partners’ social networks. Using data from the three waves of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study, we examine whether differences exist between never-married-before and repartnered couples in various aspects of their friendship networks (e.g., size of the network, overlap between the networks, time spent with friends). In other words, we investigate the level of independence between the partners in first and higher-order-unions.


Session 3c: Population Modeling 16.00-17.30 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Eva Kibele Name: Andries de Jong Organization: PBL

Toekomstige bevolkingstrends in de vier grote steden

De vier grote steden zijn de afgelopen jaren sterk gegroeid. De groei was sterker dan in de vorige PBL/CBS prognose was verwacht. Dit kwam mede doordat het aantal huishoudens sterker is gegroeid dan het aantal woningen. De opnamecapaciteit van de woningvoorraad in de grote steden blijkt onverwacht groot te zijn. Wat betekent dit voor de toekomst? Zullen de grote steden door hun aantrekkingskracht nog sterk doorgroeien en zal dit ten koste gaan van de groei van randgemeenten? Op basis van cijfers uit de nieuwe PBL/CBS regionale prognose wordt de toekomstige bevolkingsontwikkeling van de vier grote steden verkend.


Session 3c: Population Modeling 16.00-17.30 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Eva Kibele Name: Jornt Mandemakers Organization: University of Groningen (RUG)

Investigating additive genetic, maternal, and paternal (co-)variation in fertility and educational level in the Netherlands. An application of the ‘animal model’.

Low levels of fertility in Western countries are often attributed to men and women pursuing careers first and babies later. Research has shown considerable similarity between parentschildren and siblings in completed fertility and education. This raises the possibility that the effect of education on fertility is not causal, but has a genetic basis and/or arises due to nongenetic factors of the family of origin. Relatively little research investigates the (common) genetic origin of these outcomes. Most of the existing bio-demographic research on fertility uses Danish twins (cf. Kohler and Rodgers). It is crucial to extend this line of research to other contexts to generalize findings and gain insight into possible environmental variability. Unfortunately, twin data are not readily available for most contexts, but genetic origins can also be investigated using information from multi-generational surveys using the so-called 'animal model'. This is a mixed model that takes advantage of information on the relatedness of all individuals in a pedigree to estimate the genetic merit of an individual. We apply this model to the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (8,200 families and 56,000 individuals) to investigate the role of additive genetic effects, maternal and paternal effects on (the co-variation of) fertility and education.


Session 3c: Population Modeling 16.00-17.30 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Eva Kibele Name: Marten Hermans Organization: CELLO and Universiteit Antwerpen

Disentangling social mobility and differential demographic behavior in Belgium based on a population renewal model

The educational population distribution is jointly determined by intergenerational educational mobility and differential fertility and mortality rates. The relative influence of these three interdependent factors on the population distribution of a country such as Belgium—low fertility, with persistent educational inheritance and differential fertility—has not yet been evaluated and provides insight on long-term trends in educational expansion. Assessing the aggregate outcomes of such interdependent factors requires however a suitable method. We adopt the population renewal approach proposed by Mare (1997) and construct a multistate population projection model, based on Belgian vital statistics and census data, together with educational mobility rates derived from large-scale surveys (ESS, GGS, SHARE). This approach bridges standard social mobility and demographic multistate models, allowing for the construction of projection scenarios under varying observed and hypothetical differential fertility, mortality and social mobility rates. Comparing these scenarios and their stable population implications allows us to assess for Belgium the relative and joint influence of differential fertility and mortality on one side, and educational mobility on the other side, in reproducing an educationally differentiated population (Kye, 2011).


Session 3c: Population Modeling 16.00-17.30 – Opzoomerkamer Chairman: Eva Kibele Name: Arieke Rijken, Ester van Groeningen and Arjan Blokland Organization: Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement

Anticipating effects of marriage? Examining pre and post marital patterns of criminal offending

While an increasing amount of studies find marriage to be associated with reduced offending frequency, hardly any studies investigated the precise pre- and post-marital patterns of change in offending. In this study, we test contrasting hypotheses on the timing of change in offending, derived from theories on the causal mechanisms behind the association between marriage and offending. Maturation theories ascribe desistance from offending to the aging of the individual, denying any independent effect of life course transitions. In contrast, age-graded social control theory argues that marriage, and especially a good quality marriage, can constitute a turning point in the offender’s criminal career, resulting in desistance. Finally, cognitive theories of desistance argue that marriage and desistance both result from a process of cognitive change and a desire to settle down that starts well before marriage. We use longitudinal data on a sample of offenders convicted in the Netherlands in 1977 and examine changes in offending frequency in the years surrounding the year of marriage. We examine whether these changes are conditional on marriage duration and the birth of a child. In addition, we assess the extent to which these patterns differ for men and women and across different birth cohorts.


Session 3d: Mobility and Social Cohesion 16.00-17.30 – Eijkmankamer Chairman: George Groenewold Name: Sanne Boschman Organization: TU Delft

Moving intentions and moving behaviour between neighbourhoods; effects on segregation.

Residential segregation is caused by selective mobility patterns; different households move to different neighbourhoods. Households who are different from the neighbourhood population are more likely to want to leave the neighbourhood (Van Ham & Feijten, 2008) which might induce segregation. However, not all households with moving intentions are successful in realising their intention to move (De Groot, Manting & Boschman, 2008). We use data from the Dutch national housing survey (Woon) on moving intentions and Dutch register data (SSB) on actual moving behaviour to study if households with intentions to leave the neighbourhood are successful in realising their intention and to what neighbourhoods they move. Insight in which households want to leave, but are unable to do so will contribute to a better understanding of the causes of segregation.


Session 3d: Mobility and Social Cohesion 16.00-17.30 – Eijkmankamer Chairman: George Groenewold Name: Marjolijn Das, Helga de Valk and Eva-Maria Merz Organization: CBS and NIDI

Post-separation mobility: Moving close to the family

Introduction This study aims to gain more insight in mobility patterns of recently divorced and separated mothers, using a life course perspective. Depending on characteristics of the life course of the mother and the lives around her, mothers may benefit from support of nearby family, in particular the grandmother. Data & methods Data come from the Social Statistical Database of Statistics Netherlands, a longitudinal data set combining a vast number of administrative registers and covering the complete Dutch population. We used multinomial logistic regression to analyse the mobility behaviour of almost 600 thousand mothers with minor children between 2008-2010. About 9 thousand of these mothers (1,5%) separated in 2008. Results In the years after separation, mothers moved to the municipality of the grandmother more often than non-separated mothers. Furthermore, eight percent of separated mothers moved in with the grandmother, mostly temporary. Such coresidence was more common among economically vulnerable mothers. After a period of coresidence, mothers frequently stayed in the grandmother’s town. Thus, coresidence appears to influence residential location choice later on. A new partner is a major influence on geographic mobility patterns of separated mothers. The influence of practical support needs of the mother will be discussed.


Session 3d: Mobility and Social Cohesion 16.00-17.30 – Eijkmankamer Chairman: George Groenewold Name: Hans Elshof Organization: NIDI

The Relation between Social Capital of Families with Children and Social Cohesion in Rural Villages Facing Population Decline

Population decline of rural towns and villages is increasingly dominant in the Netherlands and other regions around the world. In order to provide sustainable futures for these places and its residents in terms of the quality of the living environment, an endogenous strategy of development has been proposed by both academics and governments. Essential elements of such an endogenous development are human and social capital (Stockdale, 2004). However, the effectiveness of these individual competences is dependent on how residents work together, i.e. social cohesion. This paper looks into why and how families with young children contribute to and profit from the social cohesion in their rural town or village, and, how their experiences of the consequences of population decline play a role in this process. This was investigated by doing 23 in-depth interviews with parents of young children in towns and villages in declining regions in the province of Groningen. Preliminary findings indicate that the effects of population decline on social cohesion are primarily felt in the disappearance of services which function as meeting places. However, this diminishing presence of services also provides ground for new initiatives, under the condition that pioneers inspire those people who would otherwise remain inactive.


Abstracts. Dutch Demography Day Utrecht, 27 November 2013

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