(Yet Another) Trade Deficit Recorded

WEEKLY REPORT

D E B T RESEARCH

(Yet Another) Trade Deficit Recorded

Benchmark Yield as of 01-Nov-13 FR0066 (5 year) FR0063 (10 year) FR0064 (15 year) FR0065 (20 year) Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1-Sep-13

1-Jul-13

1-May-13

1-Mar-13

1-Jan-13

1-Sep-12

1-Nov-12

1-Jul-12

1-Jan-12

1-May-12

3.0% 1-Mar-12

Government Bond Indices as of 01-Nov-13 Price Index 127.29 Yield Index 7.72% Total Return 382.84

7.0%

1-Nov-11

IDR 34.38tn IDR 0.28tn

9.0%

Inflation YoY (RHS)

8.0%

1-Sep-11

Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bond Corporate Bond

Inflation MoM

1-Jul-11

Market Outstanding as of 01-Nov-13 Government Bond IDR 942.86tn Corporate Bond IDR 214.89tn

MoM and YoY Inflation 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 1-May-11

7.25% 4,433 11,335 8.32%

1-Mar-11

Key Market Indicator as of 01-Nov-13 BI Rate JCI Index IDR Inflation(y-o-y) - Oct-13

BB+ Baa3 BBB-

Source: Bloomberg Rupiah & Monthly Trade Balance 4,000

7.048% 7.667% 8.092% 8.226%

12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000

3,000 2,000 USD Million

Country's FCLT Rating S&P Moody's Fitch

Inflasi bulan Oktober hanya mencapai 0,09%, sedangkan inflasi tahunan sebesar 8,32%. Nilai inflasi yang rendah dapat menjadi sentimen postif di pasar obligasi, namun beberapa faktor lain seperti nilai rupiah dan trade balance masih menjadi hambatan di pasar obligasi. Nilai rupiah melemah secara konsisten sepanjang minggu lalu namun dengan tingkat volatilitas yang cenderung rendah, sedangkan trade balance untuk bulan September 2013 mengalami defisit sebesar USD657 juta.

October’s inflation rate only reached 0.09%. This brought the year-on-year inflation rate up to 8.32%. The low inflation rate may create positive sentiment in the bonds market, although a number of other factors such as the weak rupiah and the trade deficit may cast a shadow over the market. The rupiah weakened throughout last week yet with lower volatility. On the trade front, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD657 million in September 2013.

1-Jan-11

4 NOVEMBER - 8 NOVEMBER 2013

1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000

www.danareksa.com

3-Jul-13

3-Sep-13

3-May-13

3-Jan-13

3-Mar-13

3-Nov-12

3-Sep-12

3-Jul-12

3-May-12

3-Jan-12

3-Mar-12

3-Nov-11

3-Sep-11

3-Jul-11

3-May-11

3-Mar-11

3-Jan-11

Spread (RHS)

9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%

FR-10Y

BI Rate

3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5%

Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate

3-Sep-13

3-Jul-13

3-May-13

3-Mar-13

3-Jan-13

3-Nov-12

3-Sep-12

3-Jul-12

3-May-12

3-Mar-12

3-Jan-12

-1.0% 3-Sep-11

Please read important disclosure at the back of this report

Nilai BI rate yang berada di 7,25% menjadi salah satu faktor meningkatnya yield. Yield obligasi meningkat setelah spread antara yield 10-tahun dengan BI rate bernilai negatif, atau yield 10-tahun berada di bawah BI rate. Dengan kata lain, selama BI rate berada di level 7,25%, yield obligasi 10-tahun akan bergerak di sekitar 7,25% - 7,75% akhir tahun.

Yield on Government Bond 10-year & BI Rate

3-Nov-11

Amir A. Dalimunthe 3509888 ext.3405 [email protected]

The unchanged BI rate at 7.25% was one factor pushing up yields last week. Bond yields rose after the yield spread between the 10-year government bond and the BI rate became negative (i.e. the 10-year yield was below the BI rate). Thus, it seems likely that as long as the BI rate stands at 7.25%, then the 10-year bond yield will move around 7.25% 7.75% at the end of year.

3-Jul-11

Analysts Rifki Rizal 3509888 ext 3404 [email protected]

IDR (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg

3-Mar-11

8-Nov-13 Germany Current Account EUR (Survey : 15B; Prior : 9.4B)

Trade Balance

3-May-11

7-Nov-13 US Initial Jobless Claims (Survey : 335K; Prior : 340K)

-3,000

3-Jan-11

Calendar of Event 6-Nov-13 Indonesia GDP YoY (Survey : 5.7%; Prior : 5.81%)

4 November - 8 November 2013

WEEKLY REPORT

MACROECONOMICS CONDITION

The Rupiah Weakened The Yield Index climbed 52bps last week to 7.72%, a two-week high. SUN holdings by both foreigners and Bank Indonesia were up over the week as of October 31. Foreign investors increased their holdings by IDR3.13 trillion to IDR318.1 trillion, while BI holdings stood at IDR48.25 trillion. By contrast, domestic bank holdings were down by IDR9.89 trillion to IDR322.35 trillion. On the currency front, the rupiah weakened 2.91% over the week to Rp11,335 per USD on lower volatility.

Yield indeks naik 52bps sepanjang minggu lalu dan ditutup pada level 7,72%, tertinggi selama 2 pekan terakhir. Kepemilikan asing dan Bank Indonesia dalam SUN per tanggal 31 Oktober naik dari minggu sebelumnya. Investor asing menambah Rp3,13 triliun kepemilikannya menjadi Rp318,1 triliun, sedangkan kepemilkan BI mencapai Rp48,25 triliun. Sementara itu kepemilikan bank domestik turun Rp9,89 triliun menjadi Rp322,35 triliun. Rupiah melemah sepanjang minggu lalu dengan volatilitas yang rendah. Rupiah menutup minggu lalu dengan pelemahan 2,91% dari minggu sebelumnya menjadi Rp11.335 per US$.

Total trading in corporate bonds reached Rp2.39 trillion last week and was dominated by bonds with tenors of less than 1 year amounting to 43.6% of the total trading.

Total volume perdagangan obligasi korporasi minggu lalu mencapai Rp2,39 triliun dengan obligasi bertenor kurang dari 1 tahun mendominasi 43,6% perdagangan minggu lalu.

Yield Index

CDS 5-Year (bps) 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75

Yield Index (LHS) Inflation

BI Rate Inflation Forecast

Indonesia

Domestic Bank Increased Their SUN Ownership

1-Nov-13

28-Oct-13

8-Oct-13

16-Oct-13

2-Oct-13

26-Sep-13

20-Sep-13

16-Sep-13

4-Sep-13

10-Sep-13

29-Aug-13

23-Aug-13

22-Oct-13

Turkey

Rupiah closed at Rp11,335 per USD 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

11,700 11,400

31-Jul-13 12-Aug-13 15-Aug-13 20-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 28-Aug-13 2-Sep-13 5-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 18-Sep-13 23-Sep-13 26-Sep-13 1-Oct-13 4-Oct-13 9-Oct-13 16-Oct-13 21-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 BI (RHS)

Domestic Bank

11,100 10,800 10,500 10,200

Foreign Investors

12-Aug-13 15-Aug-13 20-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 28-Aug-13 2-Sep-13 5-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 18-Sep-13 23-Sep-13 26-Sep-13 1-Oct-13 4-Oct-13 9-Oct-13 16-Oct-13 21-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 1-Nov-13

365 355 345 335 325 315 305 295 285 275 265

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Ministry of Finance Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor

Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector

1.2 Banking 29.73%

1 IDR trillion

Brazil

IDR trillion

IDR trillion

Philipinnes

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg

RR-BI (RHS)

19-Aug-13

31-Jul-13

13-Aug-13

25-Jul-13

19-Jul-13

15-Jul-13

31-Jul-13 12-Aug-13 15-Aug-13 20-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 28-Aug-13 2-Sep-13 5-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 18-Sep-13 23-Sep-13 26-Sep-13 1-Oct-13 4-Oct-13 9-Oct-13 16-Oct-13 21-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 1-Nov-13

9.00% 8.75% 8.50% 8.25% 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% 6.50% 6.25%

0.8

Telecommuni cation Mining Oil & 8.08% Natural Gas 6.96% Advertising, Printing & Media 3.26%

0.6 0.4

Others 8.23%

0.2 0 0

1

2

3

4

Term to Maturity Source: IDX Process Data

5

6

7

Financial Company 43.75% Source: IDX Process Data 2


WEEKLY REPORT

GOVERNMENT BONDS REVIEW

Higher Bonds Yields Indonesia’s risk premium increased last week. Meanwhile, the total government bonds trading fell DR35.74 trillion to IDR34.38 trillion last week. For corporate bonds, the trading was down by IDR365 billion over the week. Some 45.74% of the total trading in government bonds was in medium tenors with the remaining 54.26% in short and long tenors. Although last week's trading was dominated by medium tenors, the biggest upward shift in the yield curve was for medium tenors (by an average of 57bps), while the yield curve for the short and long tenors shifted up by 27bps and 44bps, respectively.

Tren penurunan yield obligasi Pemerintah tertahan, menyebabkan risk premium Indonesia meningkat selama minggu lalu. Selain itu, volume perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu turun Rp35,74 triliun menjadi Rp34,38 triliun. Volume perdagangan obligasi korporasi juga turun Rp365 miliar dari minggu sebelumnya. Sebanyak 45,74% dari perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah berasal dari tenor menengah, sedangkan 54,26% sisanya berasal dari tenor pendek dan panjang. Walaupun perdagangan didominasi tenor menengah, peningkatan yield curve terbesar justru terjadi untuk tenor sedang dengan rata-rata peningkatan sebesar 57bps, sedangkan tenor pendek dan panjang mengalami peningkatan masing-masing sebesar 27bps dan 44bps.

Spread Indon 10 year Over UST 10 year

Spread SUN 10 year over Indon 10 year

3.6%

6.6% 6.1% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1%

3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4%

8.0%

UST 10Y

7.0% 6.0%

2.5%

5.0% 4.0%

2.0%

3.0% 2.0%

1.5% 23-Oct-12 10-Nov-12 28-Nov-12 16-Dec-12 3-Jan-13 21-Jan-13 8-Feb-13 26-Feb-13 16-Mar-13 3-Apr-13 21-Apr-13 9-May-13 27-May-13 14-Jun-13 2-Jul-13 20-Jul-13 7-Aug-13 25-Aug-13 12-Sep-13 30-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

INDON 10Y

Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate

Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)

Govt Bonds Benchmark Series Yield Govt Short

Govt Med

15 10 5

8.12%

8.26%

8.38%

5.53%

5.77%

5.96%

1-Nov-13

31-Oct-13

30-Oct-13

29-Oct-13

0.70% 0.60%

4.99% 3.53% 2.57%

2.95%

0.50% 3.63%

3.33%

0.40% 0.30%

1.31%

2% 1%

28-Oct-13

24-Oct-13

23-Oct-13

22-Oct-13

0

Yield Curve Change

7.27%

4% 3%

30

Source: IDX processed data

7.84%

6% 5%

Corp

20

Yield Curve Comparison

8% 7%

Govt Long

25

21-Oct-13

1-Nov-13

10-Oct-13

2-Sep-13

20-Sep-13

13-Aug-13

17-Jul-13

7-Jun-13

27-Jun-13

17-May-13

8-Apr-13

26-Apr-13

25-Feb-13

9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%

FR0063 - 10Y FR0065 - 20Y

18-Mar-13

5-Feb-13

15-Jan-13

20-Dec-12

30-Nov-12

Daily Trade Volume

Source: Bloomberg

9%

SUN 10Y

IDR trillion

8-Nov-12

FR0066 - 5Y FR0064 - 15Y

INDON 10Y

Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate

25-Oct-13

Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)

9.0%

3.0%

23-Oct-12 12-Nov-12 2-Dec-12 22-Dec-12 11-Jan-13 31-Jan-13 20-Feb-13 12-Mar-13 1-Apr-13 21-Apr-13 11-May-13 31-May-13 20-Jun-13 10-Jul-13 30-Jul-13 19-Aug-13 8-Sep-13 28-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

0.9%

3.5%

0.20% 0.10%

0% 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

UST YC

GoI USD Yield Curve

Source: www.ustreas.gov, Danareksa Estimate

0.00% 0

Term to Maturity

2

4

6

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Term to Maturity

GoI IDR Yield Curve

Source: Danareksa Estimate 3


WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 28 Oktober - 1 November 2013 Last Trade Date 29-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 31-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 28-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 29-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 28-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 30-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 31-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 28-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 31-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 30-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 31-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 30-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 30-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 29-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 29-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13

Bonds SPN12131113 SPN03131211 FR0020 SPNS10012014 SPNS24012014 SPN12140217 SR003 SPN03130807 FR0051 SPN12140703 SPN12140731 SPN12141009 ORI008 FR0026 VR0019 FR0027 IFR0001 SR004 ORI009 SR005 VR0022 FR0030 FR0055 FR0060 FR0028 VR0026 FR0066 FR0048 FR0069 FR0036 VR0031 PBS006 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0035 FR0043 FR0063 FR0046 FR0039 FR0070 FR0044 FR0040 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0064 FR0071 IFR0006 FR0052 FR0054

Maturity Coupon 13-Nov-13 11-Dec-13 15-Dec-13 10-Jan-14 24-Jan-14 17-Feb-14 23-Feb-14 7-May-14 15-May-14 3-Jul-14 31-Jul-14 9-Oct-14 15-Oct-14 15-Oct-14 25-Dec-14 15-Jun-15 15-Aug-15 21-Sep-15 15-Oct-15 27-Feb-16 25-Mar-16 15-May-16 15-Sep-16 15-Apr-17 15-Jul-17 25-Jan-18 15-May-18 15-Sep-18 15-Apr-19 15-Sep-19 25-Jul-20 15-Sep-20 15-Nov-20 15-Jun-21 15-Jul-21 15-May-22 15-Jun-22 15-Jul-22 15-May-23 15-Jul-23 15-Aug-23 15-Mar-24 15-Sep-24 15-Sep-25 15-Sep-26 15-May-27 15-Jul-27 15-Feb-28 15-May-28 15-Mar-29 15-Mar-30 15-Aug-30 15-Jul-31

14.28 8.15 11.25 7.95 11.00 3.75 9.50 11.80 6.25 6.25 6.00 3.75 10.75 7.38 6.25 10.00 4.81 5.25 9.00 7.88 11.50 4.81 5.19 11.00 12.80 8.25 7.00 12.90 10.25 5.63 9.50 11.75 8.38 10.00 11.00 8.38 7.00 10.25 10.00 6.13 9.00 10.25 10.50 9.50

Tenor 0.03 0.10 0.11 0.18 0.22 0.29 0.30 0.51 0.53 0.66 0.74 0.93 0.95 0.95 1.14 1.61 1.78 1.88 1.95 2.31 2.39 2.53 2.86 3.45 3.70 4.23 4.53 4.86 5.45 5.86 6.73 6.86 7.03 7.61 7.70 8.53 8.61 8.70 9.53 9.70 9.78 10.36 10.86 11.86 12.86 13.53 13.70 14.28 14.53 15.36 16.36 16.78 17.70

Last Done Price 99.84 99.69 101.09 99.05 98.84 98.37 100.90 97.03 102.95 96.27 95.75 95.03 98.25 104.00 99.57 104.75 100.00 97.25 97.25 97.40 98.20 110.00 102.00 98.00 109.75 97.15 93.00 108.50 103.75 119.80 99.10 106.19 119.45 130.95 102.50 94.04 135.75 120.50 86.75 111.50 129.50 107.00 115.50 122.00 101.50 92.00 123.00 115.70 83.25 107.15 123.30 121.00 110.50

Freq 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 5.00 2.00 1.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 10.00 4.00 3.00 21.00 1.00 6.00 3.00 11.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 20.00 3.00 2.00 4.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 2.00 4.00 7.00 1.00 5.00 19.00 3.00 2.00 25.00 6.00 6.00 4.00 8.00 2.00 3.00 7.00 23.00 2.00 3.00 7.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 261.00 75.04 37.50 35.48 1,111.65 39.30 249.90 222.00 11.55 47.15 680.00 291.00 1,468.95 274.68 503.69 1,997.09 1.00 29.20 14.14 284.22 110.00 11.00 49.51 257.07 41.50 620.79 1,195.17 35.40 859.33 220.21 7.00 18.00 442.70 90.00 737.65 2,986.72 760.00 619.97 2,145.27 107.15 31.00 4,511.52 250.40 296.10 104.46 251.68 10.00 20.75 1,258.81 1,567.01 2.00 98.37 1,291.73

Yield 0.16 0.31 4.93 0.96 1.18 1.66 8.08 3.06 5.60 3.88 4.44 5.23 8.09 6.59 3.77 6.36 11.77 6.43 6.43 6.16 3.82 6.43 6.59 6.91 6.96 4.95 7.08 6.91 7.03 7.29 4.85 -0.87 7.40 7.41 7.81 7.97 7.25 7.05 7.60 7.79 7.45 7.39 7.85 8.08 8.18 7.98 7.53 8.12 8.11 8.17 7.72 8.18 8.35

Tenor Class < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr

Modified Duration 0.03 0.10 0.11 0.18 0.22 0.29 0.30 0.51 0.53 0.66 0.74 0.93 0.95 0.95 1.14 1.61 1.78 1.88 1.95 2.31 2.39 2.53 2.86 3.45 3.70 4.23 4.53 4.86 5.45 5.86 6.73 6.86 7.03 7.61 7.70 8.53 8.61 8.70 9.53 9.70 9.78 10.36 10.86 11.86 12.86 13.53 13.70 14.28 14.53 15.36 16.36 16.78 17.70

Source: Danareksa, BEI 4


WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 28 Oktober - 1 November (Cont'd) Last Trade Date 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 30-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13

Bonds FR0058 FR0065 FR0068 FR0045 FR0050 FR0057 FR0062 PBS005 FR0067

Maturity 15-Jun-32 15-May-33 15-Mar-34 15-May-37 15-Jul-38 15-May-41 15-Apr-42 15-Apr-43 15-Feb-44

Coupon 8.25 6.63 8.38 9.75 10.50 9.50 6.38 6.75 8.75

Tenor 18.61 19.53 20.36 23.53 24.70 27.53 28.45 29.45 30.28

Last Done Price 100.00 84.30 101.02 121.40 123.50 113.26 76.50 85.40 105.50

Freq 19.00 28.00 111.00 1.00 1.00 12.00 3.00 2.00 1.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 493.94 1,170.92 3,490.78 20.00 78.00 53.68 78.36 317.16 40.00

Yield 8.25 8.26 8.27 7.76 8.25 8.27 8.60 8.05 8.25

Tenor Modified Class Duration > 10yr 18.61 > 10yr 19.53 > 10yr 20.36 > 10yr 23.53 > 10yr 24.70 > 10yr 27.53 > 10yr 28.45 > 10yr 29.45 > 10yr 30.28

Source: Danareksa, BEI

5


WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 28 Oktober - 1 November 2013 Last Trade Date 28-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 30-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 29-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 31-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 29-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 29-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 29-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 31-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 28-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 28-Oct-13 28-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 29-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 31-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 30-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 28-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 31-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 30-Oct-13

Bonds BDMN02A BIMF01A BJBR07A ASDF12C NISP01ACN1 BFIN01ACN2 ADMF02ACN1 SMADMF01ACN1 FIFA01ACN2 FIFA01BCN1 SMFP01ACN2 FIFA11C ADMF01BCN2 IMFI01ACN2 TUFI06C TAFS03A ADMF05C ISAT05A BBTN13C BEXI01ACN3 OTMA07D PNBN02C BCAF01ACN2 PPGD13A1 TRAC03B PNBN04 SOFN04D ADMF04E ADMF02ACN2 SIKSIMP01 BNII01ACN1 ISAT07A ADMF01BCN1 SANF02C NISP01BCN1 ASDF01BCN1 WOMF05D BCAF01SB FIFA01CCN1 TAFS02B BEXI05C BWPT01 CNAF01B BDMN02B TAFS03B BEXI01BCN3 BNII01BCN1 ISAT07B BNGA01B JPFA01CN1 ASDF01CCN1 SMFP01CCN2 INDF06 WSKT02B MEDC03 ADHISM1CN1 BMTR01B APLN02 BNGA01BCN1 PNBN04SB

Maturity 9-Dec-13 14-Jan-14 9-Feb-14 25-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 1-Mar-14 11-Mar-14 11-Mar-14 14-Apr-14 20-Apr-14 25-Apr-14 26-Apr-14 4-May-14 18-May-14 19-May-14 27-May-14 27-May-14 29-May-14 29-May-14 2-Jun-14 8-Jun-14 19-Jun-14 24-Jun-14 1-Jul-14 5-Jul-14 6-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 29-Oct-14 3-Nov-14 1-Dec-14 6-Dec-14 8-Dec-14 16-Dec-14 20-Jan-15 19-Feb-15 21-Feb-15 4-Mar-15 23-Mar-15 20-Apr-15 5-Jun-15 8-Jul-15 16-Nov-15 22-Nov-15 9-Dec-15 17-May-16 23-May-16 6-Dec-16 8-Dec-16 23-Dec-16 12-Jan-17 21-Feb-17 25-Apr-17 31-May-17 5-Jun-17 19-Jun-17 3-Jul-17 12-Jul-17 15-Aug-17 30-Oct-17 9-Nov-17

Coupon 8.75 10.65 9.20 9.70 6.40 7.50 6.85 6.85 6.75 7.35 7.10 9.60 7.50 7.00 10.00 6.60 9.60 10.20 12.25 6.15 10.37 11.00 6.50 11.68 7.75 11.50 9.75 9.25 9.15 11.65 7.75 11.25 8.00 8.40 6.90 8.00 11.00 11.20 7.65 7.50 9.60 10.68 8.10 9.00 7.60 6.40 8.75 11.75 8.30 9.90 8.60 7.55 7.25 9.75 8.75 0.00 10.50 9.38 7.75 10.50

Tenor 0.10 0.19 0.26 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.35 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.54 0.54 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.63 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.92 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.12 1.21 1.29 1.30 1.33 1.39 1.46 1.59 1.68 2.03 2.05 2.10 2.54 2.55 3.09 3.09 3.14 3.19 3.30 3.48 3.58 3.59 3.63 3.66 3.69 3.78 3.99 4.01

Rating idAA+ [Idr]BBB idAAidAA idAAA/AAA(idn) A+(idn) idAA+ idAA+(sy) idAA+/AAA(idn) idAA+ AA(idn) idAA idAA+ idA idA+ AAA(idn) idAA+ idAA+ AAidAAA idAAidAA idAA+/AAA(idn) AA+ idA+ AAidAAidAA idAA+ AAAAA(idn) AA+ idAA+ idAAidAAA/AAA(idn) idAA+ AA(idn) AA(idn) idAA+ idAA/AAA(idn) idAAA idA AA+ (idn) idAA+ AAA(idn) idAAA AAA(idn) AA+ idAAA idA idAA+ AA(idn) idAA+ idAidAAidA(sy) idA+ idA IdAAA/AAA(idn) idAA-/A+(idn)

Last Done Price 99.90 95.00 100.45 100.48 99.83 99.50 99.25 99.27 100.00 99.70 99.12 99.68 99.00 98.95 100.65 99.00 100.60 101.40 102.00 99.41 100.90 101.35 99.85 102.50 99.30 102.88 102.00 100.30 100.20 103.75 99.05 104.15 98.80 101.75 99.93 98.10 101.25 100.00 99.00 99.00 102.10 102.00 96.50 100.82 95.75 96.50 100.05 108.90 95.50 101.51 100.50 99.25 97.00 100.00 99.00 100.00 97.05 99.50 93.45 100.50

Freq 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 15.00 5.00 2.00 2.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 9.50 14.00 1.80 4.00 20.00 0.50 20.00 40.00 10.00 98.50 29.00 3.70 16.00 10.00 0.50 90.00 5.00 8.40 4.00 135.00 2.00 9.00 180.00 16.00 44.00 164.00 78.00 30.00 191.00 10.00 15.00 23.00 1.10 2.28 50.00 7.00 8.00 10.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 7.00 2.00 20.00 80.00 203.00 1.00 3.00 0.20 1.00 20.40 0.10 0.40 1.00 0.21 4.00 78.00 25.00 10.00 9.00

Yield 9.51 37.18 7.54 8.13 6.90 8.99 8.96 6.75 8.01 8.99 10.27 9.54 8.96 8.78 8.41 8.52 7.71 8.67 7.17 8.81 8.80 6.73 7.81 8.82 8.24 7.64 8.93 8.94 8.03 8.66 7.29 9.13 6.90 6.95 9.56 9.99 11.19 8.38 8.17 8.25 9.59 10.00 8.57 9.50 7.92 8.73 8.46 9.98 9.35 8.42 7.80 8.22 9.75 9.07 11.49 9.53 9.75 10.35

Modified Duration 0.11 0.19 0.26 0.30 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.44 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.53 0.53 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.87 0.94 0.94 0.93 1.00 1.03 1.02 1.05 1.16 1.22 1.20 1.22 1.27 1.37 1.47 1.54 1.79 1.84 1.88 2.24 2.30 2.65 2.57 2.70 2.71 2.81 3.04 3.08 2.96 3.05 3.00 3.10 3.31 3.18


6


WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading 28 Oktober - 1 November (Cont'd) Last Trade Date 30-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 31-Oct-13 28-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Nov-13 28-Oct-13 28-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 28-Oct-13 28-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 30-Oct-13

Bonds PNBN04SB SIAGII02 ADHI01ACN2 AISA01 SIAISA01 PTHK01B BCAP01CN1 JSMR01CCN1S ADMF02CCN2 BNII01SBCN1 BNLI01SBCN2 PNBN01SBCN1 BVIC03SB MAYA03SB ANTM01BCN1 ISAT08B SIKPPLN04B

Maturity 9-Nov-17 18-Dec-17 15-Mar-18 5-Apr-18 5-Apr-18 28-Jun-18 5-Jul-18 27-Sep-18 24-Oct-18 6-Dec-18 19-Dec-19 20-Dec-19 27-Jun-20 5-Jul-20 14-Dec-21 27-Jun-22 8-Jul-22

Coupon 10.50 9.90 8.10 10.25 10.25 9.10 12.00 8.90 11.00 10.00 9.40 9.40 10.50 11.00 9.05 8.88 10.40

Tenor 4.01 4.12 4.36 4.42 4.42 4.65 4.67 4.90 4.97 5.09 6.13 6.13 6.65 6.67 8.11 8.65 8.68

Rating idAA-/A+(idn) A-(idn) idA idAidA-(sy) idAidBBB idAA idAA+ AA-(idn) idAAidAAidBBB+ idBBB+ idAA idAA+ idAA+(sy)

Last Done Price 100.50 87.50 91.25 103.87 102.06 100.00 97.14 100.00 100.00 101.13 103.30 100.00 88.00 99.00 100.30 97.45 100.00

Freq 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 2.00 4.00 13.00 1.00 1.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 9.00 86.50 0.30 3.00 50.00 1.00 3.00 50.00 35.00 3.00 2.00 14.00 19.00 2.00 80.00 159.00 0.20

Yield 10.35 13.93 10.63 9.18 9.67 9.10 12.82 8.90 11.00 9.71 8.70 9.40 13.24 11.21 9.00 9.31 10.40

Modified Duration 3.18 3.23 3.55 3.53 3.51 3.73 3.49 3.92 3.79 3.92 4.62 4.57 4.54 4.64 5.65 5.90 5.64


7


WEEKLY REPORT

RESEARCH TEAM

Debt Research Fax No.

Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet [email protected]

(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1709

ext. 3400

Market Analyst Rifki Rizal [email protected]

ext. 3404

Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe [email protected]

ext. 3405

Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini [email protected]

ext. 3407

Ayesha Ardelia [email protected]

ext. 3406

Debt Capital Market Division

Debt Capital Market Div. Fax No.

Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto [email protected]

Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D [email protected] Agung Suprihanto [email protected]

(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1724 / 25

ext. 3200

62 21) 3501088 ext. 3223

ext. 3212

Putrika Mayadipta [email protected]

ext. 3215

Ariningtyas W. Agustina [email protected]

ext. 3224

Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy [email protected]

ext. 3216

Debt Trading & Investment Romi Mulyadi [email protected]

ext. 3213

Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo [email protected]

ext. 3226

DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice

8

(Yet Another) Trade Deficit Recorded

Recommend Documents