WEEKLY REPORT
D E B T RESEARCH
The Government Bonds : Temporary Storm
21 APRIL 2015
Indonesia FCLT Rating S&P Moody's Fitch Key Market Indicators as of 20-Apr-15 BI Rate JCI Index IDR Inflation(y-o-y) - Mar-15 Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov't Bonds as of 20-Apr-15 Corp Bonds as of 08-Apr-15 Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds Corporate Bonds Benchmark Yield as of 20-Apr-15 FR0069 (5 year) FR0070 (10 year) FR0071 (15 year) FR0068 (20 year) Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM
BB+ Baa3 BBB-
7.50% 5,401 12,893 6.38%
IDR 1,321.8tn IDR 229.4tn
IDR 61.62tn IDR 2.44tn
7.361% 7.469% 7.630% 7.807%
Government Bonds Indices as of 20-Apr-15 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) 129.47 Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 7.57% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) 439.59
Calendar of Event 23-Apr-15 US Initital Jobless Claim (Survey : 289K; Prior : 294K) 24-Apr-15 Japan All Industrial Activity MoM (Survey : -1%; Prior : 1.9%)
Foreign Holdings Declined Amidst Rupiah Strengthening The government bonds yield index increased last week. The Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) rose 20bps from 7.36% (10/4) to 7.56% at the end of the week (17/4), recording a loss of 1.18%. Strengthening of the rupiah was still not sufficient to increase investor participation in the bonds market - especially in government bonds. Although the rupiah ended the week by strengthening slightly relative to the US dollar (appreciating by 0.63%), foreign ownership in government bonds actually declined by IDR1.05 trillion last week.
Kepemilikan Asing Turun Ditengah Penguatan Nilai Rupiah Indeks yield obligasi Pemerintah mengalami peningkatan selama sepekan terakhir. Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) meningkat sebesar 20bps dari 7.36% (10/4) menjadi 7.56% di akhir minggu (17/4), sekaligus mencatatkan loss sebesar 1,18%. Penguatan Rupiah selama minggu lalu sepertinya masih belum mampu mendorong investor asing untuk kembali berpartisipasi di pasar obligasi, terutama obligasi Pemerintah. Meskipun nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS menutup minggu dengan penguatan tipis sebesar 0.63%, namun kepemilikan investor asing turun Rp1,05 triliun selama minggu lalu.
Shortening of Durations In the government bonds market, investors tended to shorten the duration of their portfolios. This is reflected in the bonds trading which has been dominated by the short tenors (1- to 5years) over the past several weeks. Total trading in short tenor IDR government bonds reached IDR39.9 trillion last week, or accounting for 64.8% of the total transactions, whilst in the previous week, the short tenor bonds also dominated trading on the secondary market with transactions reaching IDR32.5 trillion (61.4% of the total transactions). By comparison, total trading in long tenor bonds declined by IDR747 billion from IDR5.02 trillion to IDR4.27 trillion.
Memperpendek Durasi Di pasar obligasi Pemerintah, investor masih cenderung memperpendek durasi portofolionya. Hal tersebut terlihat dari volume transaksi yang didominasi oleh obligasi tenor pendek (1- hingga 5-tahun) selama beberapa minggu terakhir. Total transaksi obligasi tenor pendek selama minggu lalu mencapai Rp39,9 triliun, atau 64.8% dari total transaksi keseluruhan, sedangkan pada minggu sebelumnya, obligasi tenor pendek juga mendominasi pasar sekunder dengan total transaksi sebesar Rp32.5 triliun, atau 61.4% dari total transaksi. Di sisi lain, transaksi untuk tenor panjang mengalami penurunan sebesar Rp747 miliar dari Rp5.02 triliun menjadi Rp4.27 triliun pada perdagangan minggu lalu.
Weaker Demand The bearish trend seen last week was also reflected in the significantly higher required yield that investors demanded at last week’s (14/4) SUN auction. The weighted average yield of winning bids was 10bps higher than the yield at the end of the previous day. Compared to the previous auctions since the beginning of the year, the average spread only reached 1bps below the closing yield level on the previous day. The pressure on bond yields is expected to continue while rupiah remains volatile, such that investors will retain a preference for instruments with shorter duration in an effort to minimize losses.
Rendahnya Demand Tren bearish selama minggu lalu juga diperlihatkan oleh required yield investor pada lelang SUN (14/4) yang meningkat cukup signifikan. Yield rata-rata yang dimenangkan oleh Pemerintah lebih tinggi 10bps dibandingkan dengan penutupan yield sehari sebelumnya. Jika dibandingkan pada lelang-lelang sebelumnya sejak awal tahun 2015, rata-rata selisih yield lelang dan level yield pada penutupan hari sebelumnya hanya mencapai 1bps. Tekanan peningkatan yield diperkirakan masih akan terjadi selama volatilitas nilai tukar tetap tinggi dan depresiasi nilai tukar Rupiah masih berlanjut, yang menyebabkan investor untuk memperpendek durasi agar meminimalisasi tingkat kerugian.
30-Apr-15 China Manufacturing PMI (Survey : NA; Prior : 50.1)
Yield at Auction vs Yield at The End of Previous Day 7.80
Analysts Rifki Rizal 3509888 ext 3404
[email protected]
7.00
Weighted Average Yield Yield at The End of Previous Day
7.60
6.00
7.40
5.00
7.20
4.00
7.00 3.00
6.80
Amir A. Dalimunthe 3509888 ext.3405
[email protected]
2.00
6.60
1.00
6.40 6.20
0.00 3-Feb-15
17-Mar-15 14-Apr-15 FR0069
Source: MoF, Bloomberg
Please read important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.com
3-Feb-15
17-Mar-15 14-Apr-15 FR0071
20 - 27 April 2015
WEEKLY REPORT
MACROECONOMICS CONDITION
Two Percent Loss in A Week Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) rose by 3bps over the last week. Yield index closed the last week at the level of 8.22% (12/12) after rising from the previous week at the level of 7.92% (5/12). Increase in yield casued performance of government bonds recorded a negative return (loss) by 2% during the week. In line with Government bonds yield index, Indonesia 5-year CDS and several emerging markets also inreased last week. Indonesia's 5-year CDS increased 29bps from 136bps to 165bps over the past week while Brazil's and Turkey's 5-year CDS increased by 47bps and 36bps, respectively.
Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) mencatatkan terdapat peningkatan yield sebesar 3bps selama minggu lalu. Yield index menutup akhir minggu di level 8.22% (12/12) setelah naik dari minggu sebelumnya yang berada pada level 7.92% (5/12). Peningkatan yield tersebut berdampak pada performa obligasi Pemerintah yang mencatatkan return negatif (loss) sebesar 2% selama minggu lalu. Peningkatan yield indeks obligasi Pemerintah diikuti juga dengan peningkatan CDS 5-tahun yang signifikan dari beberapa Negara berkembang. CDS 5-tahun Indonesia meningkat sebesar 29bps dari 136bps menjadi 165bps selama sepekan terakhir sedangkan CDS 5-tahun Brazil dan Turkey masing-masing meningkat sebesar 47bps dan 36bps.
Yield Index
CDS 5-Year (bps) 10.0%
250
9.0%
225
8.0%
200 175
7.0%
150
6.0%
125 5.0%
100
4.0%
Yield Index
BI Rate
YoY Inflation
Gov't Bonds Ownership
Brazil
9-Mar-15
3-Mar-15
25-Feb-15
18-Feb-15
6-Feb-15
12-Feb-15
2-Feb-15
27-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
9-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
5-Jan-15
Philipinnes
Turkey
Rupiah closed at Rp12,168 per USD 150
530 510 490 470 450 430 410 390 370 350
12,950 12,850 12,750 12,650 12,550 12,450 12,350 12,250 12,150 12,050
125 100 75 50
IDR trillion
25
RR-BI (RHS)
BI (RHS)
Domestic Bank
Foreign Investors
11-Dec-14 16-Dec-14 19-Dec-14 24-Dec-14 2-Jan-15 7-Jan-15 12-Jan-15 15-Jan-15 20-Jan-15 23-Jan-15 28-Jan-15 2-Feb-15 5-Feb-15 10-Feb-15 13-Feb-15 18-Feb-15 24-Feb-15 27-Feb-15 4-Mar-15 9-Mar-15
0 8-Dec-14 11-Dec-14 16-Dec-14 19-Dec-14 24-Dec-14 2-Jan-15 7-Jan-15 12-Jan-15 15-Jan-15 20-Jan-15 23-Jan-15 28-Jan-15 2-Feb-15 5-Feb-15 10-Feb-15 13-Feb-15 18-Feb-15 24-Feb-15 27-Feb-15 4-Mar-15
IDR trillion
24-Dec-14
Indonesia Source: Bloomberg
Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Ministry of Finance Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor
Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector
800
Consumer Goods 4.2% Mining Oil & Natural Gas 7.7%
700 600 IDR Billion
18-Dec-14
8-Dec-14
12-Dec-14
2-Dec-14
26-Nov-14
75 20-Nov-14
3.0%
500
Others 9.3%
Banking 43.8%
400
Property & Construction 9.4%
300 200 100 0 0
Source: IDX Process Data
1
2 3 Term to Maturity
4
5
6
Financial Company 25.7%
Source: IDX Process Data 2
20 - 27 April 2015
WEEKLY REPORT
GOVERNMENT BONDS REVIEW
Higher Risk Premium Risk premium (both of sovereign and currecny) has increased significantly. Sovereign risk premium was at the level of 200bps by the end of last week, at the same time recorded the highest level since mid-October, and the currency risk premium was at 406bps. Despite investors demanded higher yields, but the trade volume both of Government and corporate bonds increased over the last week. Total trade volume of Government bonds reached IDR64.38 trillion, or advanced by IDR17.27 trillion from the previous week. Meanwhile, the total volume of corporate bond transactions increased by IDR988 billion from IDR3.58 trillion to IDR4.55 trillion.
Risiko premium (sovereign maupun currency risk premium) mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan. Sovereign risk premium berada di level 200bps pada akhir minggu lalu, sekaligus mencatatkan level tertinggi sejak pertengahan Oktober, sedangkan currency risk premium berada di level 406bps. Walaupun tingkat risiko meningkat, namun volume transaksi obligasi Pemerintah maupun korporasi mengalami peningkatan selama minggu lalu. Total volume transaksi obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu sebesar IDR64.38 triliun, naik IDR17.27 triliun dari total transaksi minggu sebelumnya. Sementara itu, total volume transaksi obligasi korporasi meningkat IDR988 miliar dari IDR3.58 triliun menjadi IDR4.55 triliun.
Spread INDON 10 year Over UST 10 year
Spread IDR Gov't Bond 10 year over INDON 10 year
2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75%
9.5%
4.00%
8.5%
3.75%
7.5%
3.50%
6.5%
3.25%
5.5%
3.00%
4.5%
2.75%
3.5%
27-Feb-14 19-Mar-14 8-Apr-14 28-Apr-14 18-May-14 7-Jun-14 27-Jun-14 17-Jul-14 6-Aug-14 26-Aug-14 15-Sep-14 5-Oct-14 25-Oct-14 14-Nov-14 4-Dec-14 24-Dec-14 13-Jan-15 2-Feb-15 22-Feb-15
1.50%
4.25%
27-Feb-14 17-Mar-14 4-Apr-14 22-Apr-14 10-May-14 28-May-14 15-Jun-14 3-Jul-14 21-Jul-14 8-Aug-14 26-Aug-14 13-Sep-14 1-Oct-14 19-Oct-14 6-Nov-14 24-Nov-14 12-Dec-14 30-Dec-14 17-Jan-15 4-Feb-15 22-Feb-15
6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5%
2.75%
Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)
UST 10Y
Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)
INDON 10Y
INDON 10Y
SUN 10Y
Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate
Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Gov't Bonds Benchmark Series Yield
Daily Trading Volume 9.5%
Govt Short
Govt Med
Govt Long
Corp
9.0%
25 20 15
8.0% 10
7.5%
9-Mar-15
6-Mar-15
5-Mar-15
4-Mar-15
3-Mar-15
2-Mar-15
27-Feb-15
0 26-Feb-15
6.5% 25-Feb-15
5
24-Feb-15
7.0% 9-Mar-15
27-Jan-15
16-Feb-15
7-Jan-15
12-Dec-14
4-Nov-14
24-Nov-14
15-Oct-14
5-Sep-14
#N/A #N/A 25-Sep-14
18-Aug-14
1-Jul-14
22-Jul-14
11-Jun-14
20-May-14
4-Apr-14
28-Apr-14
14-Mar-14
#N/A #N/A
IDR trillion
8.5%
Source: IDX processed data
Source: Bloomberg
Yield Curve Change from 5 to 12 December 2014
Yield Curve Comparison as of 15 October 2014 0.16%
10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
7.20%
7.56%
8.01%
7.90%
0.14% 0.12%
3.97% 2.89% 1.66%
7.78%
2.20%
4.47% 2.39%
4.72%
4.96%
2.58%
2.80%
0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
2
4
6
Term to Maturity UST YC
GoI USD Yield Curve
Source: www.ustreas.gov, Danareksa Estimate
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Term to Maturity
GoI IDR Yield Curve
Source: Danareksa Estimate 3
20 - 27 April 2015
WEEKLY REPORT
APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 13 - 17 April 2015 Last Trade Date 13-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 13-Apr-15 13-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 14-Apr-15
Bonds VR0020 SPN12150501 SPN03150504 SPN03150604 SPN12150611 FR0027 SPN03150701 SPN12150710 SPNS14072015 IFR0001 SR004 ORI009 SPN12160107 SR005 VR0022 SPN12160401 FR0030 PBS008 FR0055 ORI010 VR0023 SR006 FR0060 FR0028 ORI011 SR007 FR0066 FR0032 FR0038 FR0048 FR0069 VR0029 FR0036 PBS006 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0043 FR0063 FR0046 FR0070 FR0044 IFR0007 FR0040 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0064 FR0071 IFR0006 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058 FR0065 FR0068 IFR0010 PBS004 FR0045
Maturity 25-Apr-15 1-May-15 4-May-15 4-Jun-15 11-Jun-15 15-Jun-15 1-Jul-15 10-Jul-15 14-Jul-15 15-Aug-15 21-Sep-15 15-Oct-15 7-Jan-16 27-Feb-16 25-Mar-16 1-Apr-16 15-May-16 15-Jun-16 15-Sep-16 15-Oct-16 25-Oct-16 5-Mar-17 15-Apr-17 15-Jul-17 15-Oct-17 11-Mar-18 15-May-18 15-Jul-18 15-Aug-18 15-Sep-18 15-Apr-19 25-Aug-19 15-Sep-19 15-Sep-20 15-Nov-20 15-Jun-21 15-Jul-21 15-May-22 15-Jul-22 15-May-23 15-Jul-23 15-Mar-24 15-Sep-24 15-Jan-25 15-Sep-25 15-Sep-26 15-May-27 15-Jul-27 15-Feb-28 15-May-28 15-Mar-29 15-Mar-30 15-Aug-30 15-Jul-31 15-Jun-32 15-May-33 15-Mar-34 15-Feb-36 15-Feb-37 15-May-37
Coupon 4.81 9.50 11.80 6.25 6.25 6.00 3.75 10.75 7.00 7.38 8.50 4.81 8.75 6.25 10.00 8.50 8.25 5.25 15.00 11.60 9.00 7.88 5.19 11.50 8.25 11.00 12.80 8.25 7.00 10.25 5.63 9.50 8.38 10.00 10.25 11.00 8.38 7.00 10.25 10.00 6.13 9.00 10.25 10.50 9.50 8.25 6.63 8.38 10.00 6.10 9.75
Tenor 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.19 0.22 0.23 0.32 0.42 0.48 0.71 0.85 0.93 0.94 1.07 1.15 1.40 1.48 1.51 1.87 1.98 2.23 2.48 2.89 3.07 3.23 3.32 3.40 3.98 4.34 4.40 5.40 5.57 6.15 6.23 7.07 7.23 8.07 8.23 8.90 9.40 9.73 10.40 11.40 12.07 12.23 12.82 13.07 13.90 14.90 15.32 16.23 17.15 18.07 18.90 20.82 21.82 22.07
Last Done Price 100.00 99.80 99.75 99.27 99.28 100.58 99.06 98.95 98.69 101.51 99.50 98.75 96.01 98.20 99.00 94.53 104.44 99.80 100.76 102.05 98.50 102.75 98.00 105.30 101.65 101.20 94.75 122.55 113.05 105.60 101.90 100.02 115.00 104.00 116.20 126.25 104.75 98.35 116.75 89.35 112.05 106.55 116.20 115.01 124.75 105.00 94.75 121.00 119.50 86.00 112.54 121.34 124.35 115.00 103.00 89.19 106.85 120.77 78.76 119.60
Freq 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 3.00 1.00 6.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 15.00 1.00 7.00 5.00 2.00 10.00 644.00 8.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 17.00 3.00 2.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 73.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 24.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 25.00 7.00 81.00 3.00 1.00 2.00
Vol (IDR Bn) 100.00 28.36 0.98 5.00 28.10 754.67 540.50 251.59 150.00 2.00 28.28 128.11 1,323.35 16.74 200.00 860.00 138.00 450.00 75.00 960.64 350.00 671.42 112.00 418.36 741.26 18,843.03 1,522.31 3.54 3.00 30.00 5,480.36 4,960.00 55.51 506.17 198.96 243.51 86.35 126.95 21.22 93.54 19.87 8,240.40 8.61 10.00 16.59 32.20 193.87 1.00 46.00 50.99 8,175.09 38.00 9.37 3.18 366.40 140.91 3,537.90 42.00 1.11 3.80
Yield 4.81 0.20 0.25 0.74 0.72 5.72 0.95 1.07 1.33 7.08 6.28 6.33 4.15 6.11 3.79 5.79 6.42 7.17 6.79 8.33 4.88 8.52 7.34 7.38 8.36 8.15 7.18 7.10 7.13 7.12 7.32 3.75 7.44 7.34 7.40 7.41 7.29 7.30 7.24 7.40 7.51 7.36 7.56 8.00 7.53 7.71 7.67 7.58 7.59 7.86 7.53 7.80 7.75 7.85 7.93 7.75 7.68 7.94 8.21 7.86
Tenor Modified Class Duration 0.03 < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr 0.16 < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr 0.33 < 1yr < 1yr 0.47 < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr 0.93 < 1yr < 1yr 0.98 1yr - 5yr 1.08 1yr - 5yr 1.31 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1.45 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1.84 1yr - 5yr 1.95 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 2.71 1yr - 5yr 2.58 1yr - 5yr 2.75 1yr - 5yr 2.90 1yr - 5yr 3.38 1yr - 5yr 3.88 1yr - 5yr 3.48 1yr - 5yr 4.31 5yr - 10yr 4.10 5yr - 10yr 4.34 5yr - 10yr 4.77 5yr - 10yr 5.33 5yr - 10yr 5.15 5yr - 10yr 6.11 5yr - 10yr 5.70 5yr - 10yr 6.26 5yr - 10yr 6.27 5yr - 10yr 6.24 5yr - 10yr 6.58 > 10yr 7.33 > 10yr 7.69 > 10yr 7.28 > 10yr 7.57 > 10yr 8.26 > 10yr 8.17 > 10yr 8.20 > 10yr 8.24 > 10yr 8.58 > 10yr 8.98 > 10yr 9.66 > 10yr 9.65 > 10yr 9.56 > 10yr 10.57 > 10yr 9.68 > 10yr
Source: Danareksa, BEI
4
20 - 27 April 2015
WEEKLY REPORT
APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 13 - 17 April 2015 (Cont'd) Last Trade Bonds Date 13-Apr-15 FR0057 17-Apr-15 FR0062 17-Apr-15 FR0067
Maturity 15-May-41 15-Apr-42 15-Feb-44
Coupon 9.50 6.38 8.75
Tenor 26.07 26.98 28.82
Last Done Price 118.00 80.25 107.15
Freq 1.00 2.00 1.00
Vol (IDR Bn) 0.60 6.50 171.51
Yield 7.86 8.20 8.10
Tenor Modified Class Duration 10.34 > 10yr 11.27 > 10yr 10.82 > 10yr
Source: Danareksa, BEI
5
20 - 27 April 2015
WEEKLY REPORT
APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 13 - 17 April 2015 Last Trade Date 14-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 13-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 13-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 13-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 13-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 13-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 13-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 13-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 13-Apr-15
Bonds STTP01ACN1 ADMF01CCN2 BTPN02B ADMF02ACN3 ADMF05D TAFS02B MFIN01ACN2 TRAC03C TLKM02A BNII01ACN2 PNBN05 BWPT01 BNGA01ACN2 ADMFSM1ACN2 SSMM01A BDMN02B SMFP02ACN5 NISP01CCN1 NISP01ACN2 ADMF02CCN1 SMADMF01CCN1 BEXI02ACN5 BCAF02ACN1 FIFA01BCN2 BBIA01A WOMF01ACN3 IMFI01BCN2 BCAF01DCN1 TAFS03B TUFI01ACN1 BIIF01C BCAF01BCN2 BIIF02A APLN01B ADMF02BCN2 ISAT07B BMRI01 TBIG01BCN1 JPFA01CN2 ASDF01CCN1 FIFA01BCN3 BCAF02BCN1 ADMF02BCN3 ISAT05B INDF06 MEDC03 JMPD13R AMRT01CN1 BNGA01SB SMBNII01CN1 APLN02 ADMF01CCN3 SSIA01B PNBN04SB ADMF02BCN4 WOMF01BCN2 SMFP02BCN5 SIAGII02 PNMP01BCN1 AKRA01A
Maturity 18-Apr-15 4-May-15 18-May-15 24-May-15 27-May-15 5-Jun-15 13-Jun-15 5-Jul-15 6-Jul-15 31-Oct-15 9-Nov-15 16-Nov-15 20-Nov-15 22-Nov-15 30-Nov-15 9-Dec-15 29-Dec-15 19-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 1-Mar-16 1-Mar-16 23-Mar-16 30-Mar-16 4-Apr-16 11-Apr-16 12-Apr-16 8-May-16 9-May-16 17-May-16 5-Jun-16 7-Jun-16 14-Jun-16 19-Jun-16 25-Aug-16 24-Oct-16 8-Dec-16 11-Dec-16 12-Dec-16 1-Feb-17 21-Feb-17 14-Mar-17 20-Mar-17 14-May-17 29-May-17 31-May-17 19-Jun-17 21-Jun-17 26-Jun-17 8-Jul-17 8-Jul-17 15-Aug-17 27-Sep-17 6-Nov-17 9-Nov-17 12-Nov-17 5-Dec-17 16-Dec-17 18-Dec-17 19-Dec-17 21-Dec-17
Coupon 10.50 7.75 10.60 9.60 10.00 7.50 11.00 8.30 9.60 7.60 9.00 10.68 8.75 9.60 8.60 9.00 9.60 7.40 9.00 7.85 7.85 8.25 8.25 7.75 8.60 9.25 8.25 7.70 7.60 7.75 8.00 7.50 7.75 11.00 10.50 11.75 11.85 10.00 9.90 8.60 10.50 8.50 10.50 10.65 7.25 8.75 10.25 10.50 11.30 8.24 9.38 8.75 9.30 10.50 10.50 11.25 10.00 9.90 10.50 8.40
Tenor 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.21 0.21 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.63 0.69 0.83 0.83 0.86 0.86 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.05 1.05 1.07 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.16 1.34 1.51 1.63 1.64 1.64 1.78 1.83 1.90 1.91 2.06 2.11 2.11 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.21 2.21 2.32 2.43 2.54 2.55 2.56 2.62 2.65 2.66 2.66 2.67
Rating idA idAAA AA+(idn) idAAA idAAA idAA+/AAA(idn)
idA idA+ idAAA idAAA/AAA(idn)
idAA idBBB+ idAAA idAAA(sy) idA idAAA idAA+ idAAA/AAA(idn) idAAA/AAA(idn)
idAAA idAAA(sy) idAAA idAAA idAAA/AAA(idn)
AAA(Idn) AA(idn) idA idAAA AAA(idn) idAA AA+(idn) idAAA AA+(idn) idA idAAA idAAA idAAA AA-(idn) idA+ idAAA idAAA/AAA(idn)
idAAA idAAA idAA+ idAA+ idAAidAA AA-(idn) idAAA idAAA(sy)/AAA(idn)
idA idAAA idA idAAidAAA AA(idn) idAA+ A-(idn) idA idAA-
Last Done Price 100.00 99.93 100.22 100.20 100.15 99.95 100.18 99.99 100.45 99.50 100.10 98.30 100.30 100.12 98.79 100.45 100.54 99.30 100.36 99.50 99.54 100.04 100.23 99.40 99.92 100.02 98.95 99.27 98.50 99.00 99.00 99.05 98.80 101.60 102.40 104.45 104.00 102.10 99.00 99.10 101.50 99.40 102.50 102.75 96.20 97.50 102.25 101.50 101.00 101.82 98.00 98.60 98.15 101.55 102.30 102.00 101.77 96.95 101.30 96.95
Freq 3.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 5.00 4.00 1.00 3.00 4.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 5.00 1.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 5.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 7.00 3.00 1.00
Vol (IDR Bn) 6.00 4.00 20.00 10.00 6.00 12.00 40.00 1.20 11.90 2.00 20.00 6.00 4.00 12.00 0.20 8.00 30.00 50.00 59.90 14.00 3.00 62.50 15.00 20.00 202.00 84.00 14.00 6.90 4.00 4.00 6.00 4.00 60.00 3.30 13.30 3.00 44.00 18.00 8.00 5.00 1.00 40.00 20.00 20.00 70.00 0.10 5.00 5.00 0.20 14.00 1.80 2.00 15.00 26.80 105.00 42.00 10.00 96.00 15.00 4.00
Yield 10.50 7.76 10.58 9.58 9.99 7.50 10.98 8.30 9.56 7.64 8.99 10.86 8.72 9.59 8.71 8.96 9.55 7.45 8.97 7.89 7.89 8.25 8.23 7.80 8.61 9.25 9.30 8.42 9.05 8.67 8.92 8.36 8.84 9.73 8.79 8.82 9.20 8.62 10.51 9.13 9.63 8.84 9.16 9.21 9.23 10.04 9.10 9.73 10.79 10.35 9.39 10.13 9.81 9.48 10.37 9.24 11.23 9.94 9.70
Modified Duration 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.22 0.21 0.52 0.54 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.61 0.67 0.80 0.79 0.83 0.84 0.89 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.07 1.07 1.09 1.10 1.24 1.36 1.48 1.48 1.50 1.60 1.67 1.70 1.75 1.83 1.87 1.93 1.95 1.94 1.93 1.95 2.04 2.17 2.20 2.19 2.20 2.24 2.31 2.30 2.30 2.36
Source: Danareksa, BEI
6
20 - 27 April 2015
WEEKLY REPORT
APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 13 - 17 April 2015 (Cont'd) Last Trade Date 13-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 13-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 17-Apr-15 15-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 14-Apr-15
Bonds AKRA01A NISP01CCN2 ADHISM1CN2 MEDC01CN2 BCAF02CCN1 BBIA01B WOMF01BCN3 SIAISA01 BRAP01 BNII01SB APLN01CN1 BNLI02SB PPNX01 BNII01SBCN1 SISMRA01CN1 BEXI01CCN1 MYOR04 BNLI01SBCN1 TAXI01 ISAT08A SIISAT05 BSLT05 SISMRA01CN2 APLN01CN3 PNBN01SBCN1 AKRA01B BBIA01C BNGA02SB APOL02B ANTM01BCN1 MAYA04SB BACA01SB
Maturity 21-Dec-17 10-Feb-18 15-Mar-18 15-Mar-18 20-Mar-18 1-Apr-18 2-Apr-18 5-Apr-18 8-Apr-18 19-May-18 27-Jun-18 28-Jun-18 5-Jul-18 6-Dec-18 11-Dec-18 20-Dec-18 9-May-19 15-Jun-19 24-Jun-19 27-Jun-19 27-Jun-19 8-Oct-19 10-Oct-19 19-Dec-19 20-Dec-19 21-Dec-19 1-Apr-20 23-Dec-20 30-Jun-21 14-Dec-21 17-Dec-21 13-Jan-22
Coupon 8.40 9.80 8.10 8.50 9.00 9.40 10.25 10.25 11.50 10.75 9.25 11.00 8.90 10.00 10.85 8.50 8.50 8.90 12.50 8.63 8.63 11.90 11.50 12.50 9.40 8.75 9.60 10.85 12.50 9.05 12.50 12.00
Tenor 2.67 2.80 2.90 2.90 2.91 2.94 2.95 2.96 2.96 3.08 3.18 3.19 3.21 3.63 3.64 3.66 4.05 4.15 4.18 4.18 4.18 4.46 4.47 4.66 4.66 4.67 4.94 5.67 6.19 6.65 6.66 6.73
Rating idAAidAAA idA(sy) idAAidAAA AAA(Idn) AA(idn) idA-(sy) idBBB+ idAA+ idA idAA+ idBBB+ idAA+ idA+(sy) idAAA idAAidAA+ idA idAAA idAAA(sy) idAidA+(sy) idA idAAidAAAAA(Idn) AA(idn) idD idA idBBB+ idBBB-
Last Done Price 96.95 101.20 95.50 97.75 100.22 101.02 102.00 100.23 100.01 102.50 98.40 103.25 94.25 100.60 102.65 97.36 95.27 96.30 102.45 91.00 96.51 105.25 104.28 104.68 98.30 94.78 100.02 99.30 100.00 95.33 100.00 100.00
Freq 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 1.00 1.00 18.00 2.00 2.00 22.00 3.00 6.00 4.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 1.00 2.00 6.00 2.00 7.00 6.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Vol (IDR Bn) 4.00 28.60 19.00 1.50 5.00 31.00 22.42 18.00 6.00 149.00 12.00 26.00 32.00 12.00 12.00 8.00 0.20 6.00 80.25 2.45 15.00 6.00 14.00 146.00 30.00 28.00 70.70 3.50 27.00 60.00 8.00 180.00
Yield 9.70 9.31 9.39 8.91 9.00 9.47 10.16 11.49 9.80 9.84 9.80 11.05 9.80 9.97 9.35 9.93 9.99 11.75 11.35 9.65 10.42 11.20 9.86 10.16 9.59 11.02 12.50 10.02 12.50 12.00
Modified Duration 2.36 2.40 2.53 2.53 2.55 2.52 2.52 2.49 2.57 2.72 2.67 2.73 3.00 2.97 3.10 3.33 3.40 3.21 3.42 3.45 3.47 3.51 3.72 3.75 3.89 4.17 4.25 4.87 4.44 4.58
Source: Danareksa, BEI
7
20 - 27 April 2015
WEEKLY REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM
Debt Research Fax No.
Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet
[email protected]
(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1709
ext. 3400
Market Analyst Rifki Rizal
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ext. 3404
Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe
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ext. 3405
Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini
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ext. 3407
Ayesha Ardelia
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ext. 3406
Melissa Hartono
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ext. 3402
Debt Capital Market Division
Debt Capital Market Div. Fax No.
Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto
[email protected]
Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D
[email protected]
(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1724 / 25
ext. 3200
ext. 3223
Debt Trading & Investment Romi Mulyadi
[email protected]
ext. 3213
Agung Suprihanto
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ext. 3212
Indra Figrachanda
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ext. 3214
Putrika Mayadipta
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ext. 3215
Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo
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ext. 3226
62 21) 3501088
Ariningtyas W. Agustina
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ext. 3224
Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy
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ext. 3216
Tia Aprianti
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ext. 3225 DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice
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