THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 HOUSING, BUSINESS, AGRICULTURAL & RURAL

FOREWORD In 2013, the Dutch property market was in the news on several occasions, to shed light on some cheerful but also less exciting developments. For instance, due to tougher funding rules, home sales were at the lowest levels in years. But as market picked up in the second half of the year, a further decline in prices was p revented nonetheless. As far as commercial property is concerned, news messages mainly confirmed disappointing demand, as vacancy levels continued to climb in all segments. Still, the investment market did show some signs of recovery and positive changes presented themselves in the agricultural property market as companies meeting today’s requirements were sold reasonably fast, and at a good price too. Also, rising demand for land by dairy and arable farmers kept land prices steady last year. The publication in front of you represents the facts and figures substantiating these messages and is seeking to make the property market more transparent. In fact, this is the very first edition presented by these departments, but that is not the only special thing about it. Those responsible for preparing this publication (they all work at Data & Research) have decided to use infographics rather than traditional statistics. As far as I am aware of, this method is unique to our sector. With the 50 ‘images’, NVM intends to visualise the main property themes in the year 2013. Most infographics are based on figures collected and processed by Data & Research on a daily basis. As you are about to discover, this publication confirms there are many signs of a nascent recovery. According to expectations, the year 2014 will be all about unrelenting recovery. I take pride in presenting you with this publication, wishing you a very good and interesting read. Ger Hukker Chairman of the Netherlands Association of Real Estate Brokers and Real Estate Experts (NVM)

CONTENT FOREWORD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . KEY FIGURES ECONOMY 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5 8 10

Longer supply term, transaction periods are steady . . . . . . . . . . . . .

40

The number of available offices continues to rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

41

Major regional differences in vacancy rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

42

Aging offices are presenting a problem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

43

The balance lost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

44

Different demand in each sector and every year. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

45

HOUSING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13

G4 facing the same problems in the office market . . . . . . . . . . . . .

46

4.1 million owner-occupied homes in the Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . .

14

Rents are under even more pressure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

47

Sales levels up as of spring 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15

Many industrial premises are available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

48

High-priced houses are losing value much faster. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

16

Structural supply goes up again. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

49

Reviving confidence feeding price recovery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

17

Logistics property: all that is gold does not glitter. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

50

House prices back at 2003 levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

18

More vacant retail property. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

51

Fewer houses are offered for sale. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19

Amsterdam has the strongest retail market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

52

Wide market slightly tighter in 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

20

Also more structural retail vacancy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

53

New supply easier to sell. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

21

How retail sectors developed in 2013. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

54

Old supply takes longer to sell. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

22

Rents at the lowest level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

55

Longer availability … a greater loss . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

23

Commercial property prices are much lower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

56

New-build house sales hitting rock bottom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

24

Dutch investors still reticent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

57

Slightly less new property available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

25

New-build house prices have ceased to drop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

26

AGRICULTURAL & RURAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

59

More homes were let out in 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

27

A stiff agricultural property market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

60

Rents have ceased to drop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

28

Some sectors did well. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

61

Homeownership increasingly interesting, renting property more expensive . . . . .

29

Agricultural property supply by sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

62

Housing costs are much more affordable …. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

30

Different property market dynamics in each sector . . . . . . . . . . . . .

63

… yet the maximum borrowing capacity is less . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

31

More expensive milk quotas, the end is near . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

64

Problem groups in the mortgage market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

32

Modest recovery in converted farmhouses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

65

Housing corporations selling property. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

33

Regionally different prices for grasslands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

66

Price levels slightly up in farmland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

67

OUTLOOK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

68

NVM’S PROFILE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

70

BUSINESS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

35

High supply levels … poorest demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

36

More property available. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

37

Greater letting opportunities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

38

Sales opportunities slightly better . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

39

INTRODUCTION The year 2013 will go down in history as a transitional year. For after almost five years of economic adversity, a turn presented itself at last. Very gently economy was shaking off the recession, consumer confidence has been growing ever since. Nevertheless, it is too soon to start cheering. For instance, last year saw the number of bankruptcies and unemployment rates climb further. Also, the announcement of more cuts will do no good to the e conomy. It is often claimed that the property market will benefit most from political steadiness. It looks like this statement was acknowledged in 2013. Especially as far as the housing market is involved, political measures (limiting mortgage interest relief, pushing up rents) have made things crystal-clear. And yet, not all measures seem to pay off. For instance, last year the demolition fund for vacant offices perished while banks were hardly interested in providing the so-called Blok Mortgage (for tackling outstanding debts).

In 2013, the agricultural property market once again saw some positive as well as negative changes. The good news is that due to continuous increase in scale, production levels went up primarily in the dairy sector. It is where, also due to the approaching abolition of milk quotas, increase in sales is pivotal. As in previous years, in 2013 the number of agricultural firms dropped once again. It is mainly because farmers gave up. Less positive news for the agricultural sector was the intensified livestock farming causing even more pressure. Points of interest included changes in the intended use in rural areas (from agricultural to rural living); quite often these are still very slow. The general conclusion is this: 2013 was no better than the year before. But, even more importantly, it was not worse either. The year 2013 was all about getting back on track again, whereby recovery in the second half of the year gives us every reason to look forward to the future.

In the housing market, serious attention was paid to financeability at both the micro and macro level. Even though the total mortgage debts of Dutch households dropped last year, also due to families’ additional repayments, taking out a mortgage has become more of a challenge. The maximum ‘loan-to-value’ will be restored in phases, back to 100% in 2018 (105% in 2013), maximum mortgage standards (Nibud standards) have been accentuated, the National Mortgage Guarantee will be adapted according to the average property value and banks will hardly use their ‘explain’ options or not at all. In return, having lower house prices and low interest rates means households’ monthly expenses are more affordable compared to the year 2009. In addition to the housing market, confidence is also improving as far as commercial property is involved (offices, industrial buildings and retail property). This is mainly the case with (foreign) investors, to whom property offers interesting investment opportunities given today’s low prices. The occupational market, on the other hand, hardly saw any positive changes. Demand for commercial property not only suffered from bad economic conditions (unemployment, bankruptcies), but also from social trends such as the new way of working and e-commerce. In addition, government cuts came with less use of office space, which was felt most strongly in The Hague and environs. Investors and banks are slowly but surely starting to realise that depreciating vacant premises is inevitable.

8 | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | 9

KEY FIGURES ECONOMY 2013 Economic growth compared to previous year in %

Job vacancies x1,000

5.0 2.5 0.0 -2.5 -5.0

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

260

9.00

195

6.75

130

4.50

65

2.25

0

Source: Statistics Netherlands

3.5

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

Business confidence 20

10

2.5

0.00


20

3.0

10

0

2.0

0

-10

1.5

-20

1.0

-10

-30

0.5

-20

-40

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

-50


’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

6

’13

20

4

10

3

4

2

0

1

3

0

2

-10

-1

Capital market rate

-2

1

-30


5

Mortgage interest

5

’12

Business investments in tangible assets in % compared to previous year

Household consumption in % compared to previous year

Capital market rate and 5-year mortgage interest

0

’06

Consumer confidence

Inflation in %

0.0

Unemployment %

-20

-3

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

Source: DNB, Hypotheekshop


-4

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

-30




THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | HOUSING | 13

HOUSING

HOUSING

4.1 MILLION OWNER-OCCUPIED HOMES IN THE NETHERLANDS The Netherlands is home to approximately 7.3 million residential premises, more than half of which are owner-occupied homes. Other homes are rented. Most rented houses belong to housing In Nederland staan zo'n 7,3 miljoen woningen. corporations. Only 29%een of koopwoning. all rented De Hiervan is meer dan de helft houseswoningen are property of private investors. overige worden gehuurd. De meeste van deze huurwoningen zijn in bezit van woningcorInternationally speaking, theeen private poratie. Slechts 29% van de huurwoningen is in lettingvan sector in thebeleggers. Netherlands is handen particuliere In internationaal relatively small, unlike the social housing opzicht is de particuliere huursector in Nederland

SALES LEVELS UP AS OF SPRING 2013

sector which is relatively large. But little by little, things have started to change. In recent years, the social housing sector has been diminishing while the private sector and the owner-occupied sector are in fact laatste jaren neemt de sociale huursector in omvang picking Also, major differences exist af en groeitup. de omvang van de particuliere huursecacross the Netherlands. For instance, tor en de koopwoningsector. Overigens zijn binnenin Nederland grote only verschillen Zo is in Amsterdam 25% zichtbaar. of all homes are Amsterdam slechts 25% van de woningen een owner-occupied compared to over koopwoning, terwijl inhomes, een groot deel van Noord-Bra70%het inaandeel much koopwoningen of Noord Brabant. bant meer dan 70%

4,1 mln koopwoningen in Nederland

relatief klein en de sociale huursector relatief groot. Langzaam maar zeker komt hierin verandering. De

bedraagt.

Since 2009, home sales transactions have been at a very low level. The year 2013 was no exception. And yet, a notable recovery presented itself last year.

Herstel verkopen vanaf voorjaar 2013

Sinds 2009 bewegen de huizenverkopen zich op een zeer laag niveau. Het jaar 2013 vormt hierop geen uitzondering. Toch was vorig jaar sprake van een opvallend herstel.

HOME SALES ALREADY LOW FOR YEARS... Number of homes sold annually by NVM brokers 148,819

148,268 128,154

Percentage of owner-occupied homes of total stock in each municipality Private rental

95,897

’09

’10

88,985

85,509

Owneroccupied 13%

31%

94,809

87,404

56%

Total 7.3 mln homes ’06

Social housing

’07

’08

Beyond expectations Trend line

’11

’12

’13

... YET UNDENIABLE RECOVERY SINCE SPRING Number of homes sold on a weekly basis (incl. those sold subject to approval)

Worse than expected Percentage of owner-occupied homes of total stock in each municipality < 50%

2,000

1,500

50% - 60% 60% - 70% > 70%

Source: Statistics Netherlands, 2012

14 | HOUSING | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

1,000 January ‘13

December ‘13

Higher monthly housing costs as a result of new mortgage rules, effective as of 1 January 2013, urged people to buy a home fast before year-end 2012. The result: very few sales transactions in early 2013.

But things started to change in spring. After that, more houses were sold every week than one might expect given trends from previous years.


HIGH-PRICED HOUSES ARE LOSING VALUE MUCH FASTER Since 2008, the prices of existing owner- occupied homes have dropped by an average of over 18%. High-priced homes, however, have lost value even faster compared to inexpensive ones (in absolute Bestaande koopwoningen zijn One sinds of 2008 gemiddeld and percentage terms). the main ruim 18% in prijs gedaald. Maar dure woningen zijn reasons are stagnating flows. –As a result, – zowel absoluut als ook procentueel harder in the market ingoedkope the higher priceEen segments prijs gezakt dan woningen. belangrijke oorzaak is het stagneren vanindeed. de doorstroming. has become extensive Another Hierdoor is de markt in de hogere prijssegmenten erg factor are the even stricter mortgage rules ruim geworden. Wat ook meespeelt zijn de verder

REVIVING CONFIDENCE FEEDING PRICE RECOVERY

and the evaporating potential residual value. Financing an expensive home is becoming quite a serious challenge. As for 2014, NVM expects prices to stabilise at current levels. The price drop in van potentiële overwaarde. Voor kopers wordt het percentage terms pertains to the decline steeds moeilijker om een duur huis te financieren. De afterverwacht prices peaked indethe second quarter NVM dat in 2014 prijzen op het huidige of 2008 until they reached rock bottom in niveau zullen stabiliseren. De procentuele prijsdaling betreft de daling vanaf of het2013. hoogtepunt van de prijzen the third quarter

Dure woningtypen harder in prijs gedaald

aangescherpte hypotheekregels en het verdampen

in het tweede kwartaal 2008 tot het dieptepunt in het derde kwartaal van 2013.

Whereas previously the housing market dynamics was mainly determined by macroeconomic factors (e.g. borrowing capacity, unemployment and interest rate), today the housing market is becoming more of a market of trust. Waar vroeger de woningmarktdynamiek werd The Homeowners’ Association (invooral Dutch: bepaald door macro-economische factoren (zoals Vereniging Huis)enmeasures leencapaciteit,Eigen werkloosheid rente), is de woningmarkt steedsconfidence meer een vertrouwensmarkt geworden. consumer in this market on a De Vereniging Eigen Huis meet elke maand het monthly basis. The ‘Owner-occupied Home vertrouwen in de woningmarkt. De Eigen Huis Market Indicator’ proves be a sound Marktindicator blijkt een goede to voorspeller van de

predictor of house price developments. One interesting detail is the fact that the strong recovery of house prices towards the end of 2009 was not due to rising consumer confidence. Yet another dip followed, even deeper and longer than the het sterke herstel van latest de woningprijzen 2009 previous one. The housingeind market geen fundament had in een opleving van het recovery, however, isWat fedvolgde by a more consumentenvertrouwen. was eenpositive tweede dip die dieper was en langer de eerste. market sentiment and duurde seemsdan to be of a De meest recente opleving van de woningprijzen structural nature.

Opleven vertrouwen voedt prijsherstel

ontwikkeling van de huizenprijzen. Wat opvalt, is dat

wordt wel gevoed door een positiever marktsentiment en lijkt daarmee structureel van aard.

MARKET SENTIMENT HIGH-PRICED HOMES LOSING VALUE MUCH FASTER COMPARED TO INEXPENSIVE ALTERNATIVES Price movements per type of house in € x1,000

TRANSACTION PRICES

VEH (Homeowners’ Association) market indicator

Prices of existing owner-occupied houses compared to previous year

450

A peak in house prices DETACHED

100

4%

80

0%

60

-4%

400

400 Maximum fall in prices:

350

– 23.2% 332 300

SEMI-DETACHED 285 244

250

CORNER HOUSE TERRACED HOUSE

200

226 198 206

–19.0%

–18.8% –17.5%

184 150

–16.1%

167 159

APARTMENT

-8%

40 ’06

100 ‘06

‘07

‘08

‘09

‘10

‘11


‘12

‘13

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

Source: NVM, Homeowners’ Association (in Dutch: Vereniging Eigen Huis or VEH)


HOUSE PRICES BACK AT 2003 LEVELS In recent years, buyers have paid more for their homes than what they are worth today. It means these homes are now ‘underwater’. How many years ago were house prices the same as the current

prices? As for the Netherlands in general, we should travel back to the year 2003, but for large areas in East Netherlands we need to go back even more.

PRICE LEVEL CONTINUES TO DROP

Huizenkopers hebben de afgelopen jaren gemiddeld meer voor hun huis betaald dan dat het nu nog waard is. Daarmee staan deze huizen ‘onder water ‘. Hoeveel jaar geleden lagen de woningprijzen op hetzelfde niveau als de huidige prijzen? Voor Nederland als geheel moeten we terug naar begin 2003, maar voor grote delen van Oost-Nederland moet men nog verder achteruit.

Huizenprijzen terug op niveau 2003

Price movements in the Netherlands in € x1,000 250 225 200

‘01

‘03

‘05

‘07

‘09

Under healthy market conditions, the number of announcements (newly listed homes for sale) and cancellations (houses sold or withdrawn) is well balanced. As a result, the number of homes offered for sale remains steady. Before the financial In een goed functionerende houden de crisis presented itself,markt an average of aanmeldingen (nieuw aangeboden woningen) en de 80,000 homes were available for sale afmeldingen (verkochte en ingetrokken woningen) in theredelijk Netherlands. ButHet things went elkaar in evenwicht. resultaat is dat het

aantal woningen dat te koop staat, stabiel blijft. Voor het uitbreken van de kredietcrisis stonden in LESS NEW SUPPLY

de verkopen verder aantrekken, kan het enorme stuwmeer aan te koop staande woningen verder leeglopen.

Sold ‘11

‘13

wrong after that. Due to poorer demand, availability levels doubled reaching 170,000 r esidential premises at year-end 2011. Ample availability discouraged many p eople from putting their homes up for sale. Also because of that, the number Nederland 80.000was woningen koop. of newly gemiddeld listed homes very te low in Daarna ging het mis. Door vraaguitval verdubbelde 2012 and again in 2013. Ironically, this is het aanbod naar 170.000 woningen eind 2011. Het exactly whyheeft theveel negative trend of climbing ruime aanbod potentiële verhuizers ervan weerhouden om hun te koopProvided te zetten. Het supply levels washuis broken. more aantal nieuw aangeboden woningen was mede sales transactions are entered into in hierdoor dan ook erg laag in 2012 en 2013. Ironisch 2014, isthe reservoir of houses genoeg hetgigantic juist daardoor dat de negatieve trend van het stijgende aanbod is doorbroken. Alstoindrain. 2014 available for sale might continue

Daling aantal te koop staande woningen

Withdrawn

Transaction prices back at 2003 levels

175

FEWER HOUSES ARE OFFERED FOR SALE

New home listings For sale at year-end

For the first time since 2006, the number of new home listings is less than those ‘withdrawn’ and ‘sold’ together

MAJOR REGIONAL DIFFERENCES In what year were house prices as high as in 2013? 2000 2001

150,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

100,000

2008

50,000

0


’06

‘07

‘08

‘09

‘10

‘11

‘12

‘13


WIDE MARKET SLIGHTLY TIGHTER IN 2013 The NVM ‘tightness indicator’ illustrates the supply-transaction ratio. In ordinary market conditions, this ratio is 5 or 6, which means 5 or 6 times as many homes are offered for sale as those sold on a monthly basis. In 2013, the indicator

NEW SUPPLY EASIER TO SELL

revealed an average of 23, but towards the end of the same year this number had already dropped to 20. The market being slightly tighter is not only due to increasing sales transactions, but also because fewer houses are available for sale.

Ruime markt in 2013 iets krapper

De NVM krapte-indicator geeft de verhouding weer tussen aanbod en transacties. In een normaal functionerende markt is deze verhouding 5 of 6, wat inhoudt dat er 5 of 6 keer zoveel woningen te koop staan als er maandelijks worden verkocht. In 2013 stond de krapte-indicator gemiddeld op 23, maar aan

het eind van het jaar lag de indicator al onder de 20. Dat de markt iets krapper is geworden, wordt niet alleen veroorzaakt door aantrekkende verkopen, maar ook door een kleiner aanbod woningen dat te koop staat.

On average, houses that were put up for sale in 2013 (new supply) came with much lower asking prices compared to those that have been on the market for a much longer period of time. This is not only related to supply itself (old Woningen die in 2013 te koop zijnmany gezet (nieuw supply includes relatively detached aanbod), hebben gemiddeld genomen een flink lagere houses), but also due to the fact that in vraagprijs dan woningen die al langer te koop 2013 many people to offer their stonden. Dit houdt niet decided alleen verband met het

houses at sharp prices. Hence, these houses were sold quicker. Unfortunately, old supply still has many houses ‘for sale’, the owners of which cannot or will not lower the asking price or they are investing relatively little energy in promoting koop hebben Huizen die in 2013 te koop sales. Mostgezet. of these houses were still zijn gezet, zijn dan ook sneller verkocht. In het oude available at year-end 2013. aanbod staan helaas nog veel huizen 'te koop',

Nieuw aanbod verkoopt beter dan oud

aanbod zelf (in het oude aanbod zitten relatief veel vrijstaande huizen), maar ook met het feit dat veel mensen in 2013 hun huis voor een scherpe prijs te

waarbij de eigenaar de vraagprijs niet meer kan of wil verlagen en hij ook relatief weinig energie meer steekt in promotie. De meeste van deze woningen staan eind 2013 nog steeds te koop.

UNDER ORDINARY MARKET CONDITIONS EACH BUYER HAS 5 HOUSES TO CHOOSE FROM Tight market conditions. Dotted line reveals tightness level 5.

SUPPLY TRENDS PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE HOUSING MARKET DYNAMICS

TERRACED HOUSE 5

5

7

11

12

15

17

16

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

€

Average house prices

Total supply in early 2013

New supply 2013

CORNER HOUSE 6

6

8

14

14

18

20

18

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

00

SEMI-DETACHED 7

10

18

18

23

24

23

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

12

13

18

35

35

41

48

7,900

44,600

00

,4 € 188

NEW SUPPLY

00

,7 € 278

00

,3 € 274

45

EXISTING SUPPLY ’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

6

7

12

15

20

24

23

APARTMENT 6 ’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

TOTAL 6

7

9

15

17

21

24

23

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13


Total supply at year-end 2013

162,500 houses 172,800 houses

DETACHED

Sold

128,600

,0 € 247

7

Withdrawn/ let out

00

,5 € 209

40,300 Total supply in early 2013

New supply 2013

Withdrawn/ let out

42,800 Sold

Total supply at year-end 2013

The supply trends provide insight into the owner-occupied housing market in 2013. It represents the input of newly listed homes in 2013 (new supply, arrow top left) in the total housing stock available for sale. It also reflects how many houses that were offered for the first time in 2013 were actually sold (sold from new supply, arrow top right) and also how many old-supply houses were sold (sold from old supply, arrow bottom right). Old-supply and new-supply houses that were not sold in 2013 eventually make the total supply at year-end 2013 (arrow rightmost). At the end of the year corrections are made, which is why numbers do not fully correspond.


OLD SUPPLY TAKES LONGER TO SELL The housing market is picking up, yet not every seller is receiving the benefits. Only houses offered at sharp prices and provided they are properly presented are sold within a relatively short amount of time (shorter selling time). Consequently, De woningmarkt herstelt zich, maar niet elke in 2013profiteert the average time required sell verkoper hiervan. Alleen woningentodie

LONGER AVAILABILITY … A GREATER LOSS

a home remained steady at 5 months. Supply included many homes that have been available for sale for years and of which prices were hardly adjusted. It is why houses are available for longer and longer, currently beyond 14 months. nog niet is verkocht, zitten veel woningen die al

Oud aanbod staat steeds langer te koop

jarenlang te koop staan en waarvan de prijzen nauwelijks worden aangepast. Dit verklaart dat de looptijd van te koop staande woningen blijft stijgen en inmiddels de 14 maanden is gepasseerd.

Time on market in days

Steeds duidelijker wordt een tweedeling zichtbaar: nieuw aangeboden woningen met een scherpe prijs versus woningen die al meer dan 3 jaar te koop staan. De kans dat woningen die lang te koop staan binnen een kwartaal worden verkocht, is gedaald tot

159

257

160

Selling opportunity reveals the odds of selling a house in three months. For instance, a house that has been available for sale for 1 to 2 years, has an 8% chance of exchanging owners within three months.

136

282 24%

244

2%. Uiteindelijk geven woningen die meer dan drie jaar te koop hebben gestaan, 25% toe op de oorspronkelijke vraagprijs. Waren deze woningen direct goed in de markt zijn gezet, dan zouden zij voor een veel betere prijs zijn verkocht.

SELLING OPPORTUNITY Likelihood of selling a house in three months

1

Supply term shown in days

three months has tumbled down to 2%. Eventually, these houses are sold at 25% less than the original asking price. Had these houses been properly put on the market, they would have exchanged owners at much higher prices.

Hoe langer te koop, hoe groter het verlies

36 5 ye day ar s,

scherp zijn geprijsd en goed worden gepresenteerd, worden relatief snel verkocht. Zij hebben een korte verkooptijd. Daardoor blijft in 2013 de gemiddelde verkooptijd stabiel op 5 maanden. In het aanbod dat

A divide is becoming increasingly visible: newly listed homes offered for sale at sharp prices versus homes that have been on the market for more than 3 years. The chance of selling homes that have been available for at least three years within

367

167

129 122

140 136

85 82

428

16% 13%

Supply term is the average amount of time houses that have not yet exchanged owners are offered for sale.

11%

Time on market in days is the number of days a home was offered for sale before exchanging owners.

86

8% 5%

’13

’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

2%

Even in good times, the supply term exceeds the time required to sell. This is due to a different composition. Supply includes many more detached houses

with more time required to sell and many fewer terraced houses with less time required to sell. to 1st Q.

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND SALES Composition of houses offered and sold in 2013 Sold Apartment

Detached SemiDetached

162,485

30%

15%

14%

Cornerhouse

11%

Cornerhouse

19%

House available for 1 to 2 years

House available for 2 to 3 years

House available for more than 3 years

-11.3% -13.7%

Supply SemiDetached

3rd to 4th Q.

-8.3% Apartment

13% 25%

2nd to 3rd Q.

-4.2%

Supply Detached

1st to 2nd Q.

Terraced House


14%

87,404

30%

Total number sales

-17.5% -22.1%

29%

Terraced House

PRICE DIFFERENCE Average difference between sale price and asking price

-25.6%


NEW-BUILD HOUSE SALES HITTING ROCK BOTTOM As for the number of new-build premises sold, 2013 was definitely the worst year since the outbreak of the financial crisis. And yet, property developers and house agents specialising in new property saw sales levels clearly pick up in the second Voor wat het aantal verkochte nieuwbouwwoningen half of the year. betreft was 2013 het slechtste jaar sinds het begin

The market of new-build houses is reacting more strongly to the market sentiment and economic fluctuations compared to the market of existing houses. If signs do not deceive us and provided market sentiment changes structurally, then continued De markt voor nieuwbouwwoningen reageert heftiger recovery in the new development market op het marktsentiment en schommelingen in de may reasonably bevoor expected. economie dan de markt bestaande woningen. Als

Aantal nieuwbouwverkopen op dieptepunt

van de kredietcrisis. Maar projectontwikkelaars en in nieuwbouw gespecialiseerde woningmakelaars zien in de tweede helft van het jaar een duidelijk herstel van de afzet optreden.

de voortekenen juist zijn en het marktsentiment structureel verbetert, dan ligt een verder herstel van de nieuwbouwmarkt in de lijn der verwachtingen.

SLIGHTLY LESS NEW PROPERTY AVAILABLE While after 2008, the number of existing homes offered for sale rose impressively, this was not the case as far as new premises are concerned. At the start of the financial crisis, it was easier for project developers to respond to 2008 the new market Waar in de bestaande bouw na het aantal te koop staandecompared woningen sterk is opgelopen, heeft in situation to private individuals de nieuwbouw deze ontwikkeling zich niet in the existing property market. Such was voorgedaan. Projectontwikkelaars konden aan het possible bykredietcrisis taking unsuccessful begin van de makkelijker oppremises de nieuwe

off the market and offering new property instead. Even during the second dip, project developers made sure to adapt new supply to disappointing sales figures. Hence, the number of newly listed new houses wasOok historically low 2013. As aan te bieden. bij de tweede dipin hebben ontwikkelaars het nieuwe aanbod aangepast aan de for 2014, both the number of transactions tegenvallende verkopen. Het aantal nieuw aangeand newly listed residential property are boden nieuwbouwwoningen lag dan ook historisch expected rise significantly. laag in 2013.to Voor 2014 wordt een substantiële

Aanbod nieuwbouw licht afgenomen

marktsituatie reageren dan particulieren in de bestaande bouw. Dat konden zij door slechtlopende projecten van de markt te halen en nieuwe projecten

toename van zowel het aantal transacties als het aantal nieuw aangeboden woningen verwacht.

NEW PROPERTY

EXISTING PROPERTY

Transactions

Transactions

45,000

180,000

PROPERTY DEVELOPERS RESPOND TO POOR DEMAND FOR NEW PROPERTY Withdrawn Sold Newly listed For sale at year-end

33,750

135,000

40,000

30,000

22,500

90,000

Number of houses available at year-end remains steady more or less

20,000

11,250

45,000

10,000

0

0 ’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13*

* Annual figures 2013 estimated new property Source: Monitor Nieuwe Woningen (New Housing Monitor), NVM


0 ’06

‘07

‘08

‘09

‘10

‘11

‘12

‘13 *

Source: Monitor Nieuwe Woningen (New Housing Monitor) * Figures 2013, estimated


NEW-BUILD HOUSE PRICES HAVE CEASED TO DROP In 2013, new-build property prices ceased to drop. Existing property levels, however, did reveal a tiny fall, but for 2014 prices are expected to stabilise in this market as well. Studying the 2013 price movements

in detail, we know that in the first three quarters of the year, the price of new-build property sold was hardly any lower than that of 2012, while prices are expected to clearly exceed the levels of a year earlier.

Prijsdaling nieuwbouwwoningen gestopt In 2013 is de prijsdaling van nieuwbouwwoningen gestopt. De bestaande bouw daarentegen noteerde nog wel een kleine min, maar voor 2014 wordt ook hier een stabilisatie van de prijzen verwacht. Wanneer ingezoomd wordt op de prijsontwikkeling in

2013 is te zien dat in de eerste drie kwartalen de prijs van verkochte nieuwbouwwoningen nauwelijks lager is dan die in 2012, terwijl de verwachting is dat in het vierde kwartaal de prijs duidelijk boven het niveau van een jaar eerder uitkomt.

MORE HOMES WERE LET OUT IN 2013 up in 2013, in fact fewer owners decided to offer their homes for rent, pushing supply levels down by 3% last year. The number of residential premises let out did rise though, by no less than 18% in one year. Two-thirds of rented houses are apartments. Perhaps needless to met aangeboden, waardoor het huuraanbod in 2013 say these Het do not belong to housing 3% isthat afgenomen. aantal verhuurde woningen is wel toegenomen, namelijk 18% they in eenare jaar private tijd. corporations, but rather Tweederde van deze verhuurde woningen is een premises offered forkan rent. appartement. Wellichtby tenbrokers overvloede worden

The number of homes available for rent has tripled from 2006 to 2012, for different reasons. For instance, more and more people have temporarily offered their homes for rent, including those failing to sell their homes, while in between they have already moved into new property.is in Het aantal woningen dat te huur is aangeboden, Also, supply levelsmaar climbed to meet the de periode 2006-2012 liefst verdriedubbeld. Hiervoordemand kan een aantal redenenhouses. worden genoemd. rising for rented As the Zo hebben steeds meer mensen hun woning tijdelijk owner-occupied housing market picked te huur gezet, bijvoorbeeld als men de woning niet

Meer woningen verhuurd in 2013

kwijtraakte, terwijl al wel een nieuw huis was gekocht. Verder groeide het aanbod om te voldoen aan de toenemende vraag naar huurwoningen. Door het herstel van de koopwoningmarkt in 2013 hebben steeds minder huiseigenaren hun huis te huur

PRICES CONSIDERABLY LOWER

vermeld dat het hier niet om corporatiewoningen gaat, maar om particuliere woningen die door makelaars worden aangeboden en in verhuur zijn genomen.

Median house prices of new and existing property in € New houses are larger on average and come with more quality compared to existing alternatives. Hence, median house prices are higher.

300,000

NEW PROPERTY

HOUSES OFFERED AND LET OUT

275,000

20,600

Supply at year-end

Let out 250,000

17,500

EXISTING PROPERTY

225,000

200,000 ’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13*

14,400 13,000 12,200

PRICES HAVE CEASED TO DROP Price movements compared to previous year in %

9,500

+3%

10,100

9,800

8,500 8,000

0%

7,800 6,600

6,600

5,300 3,500 3,400 -8% ’12

’13

* New development figures in 2013 are preliminary Source: NVM and Monitor Nieuwe Woningen (New Housing Monitor)


’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13* * Preliminary figures


RENTS HAVE CEASED TO DROP On the whole, the development of rents follows that of prices in the owneroccupied housing market: climbing prices prior to the outbreak of the financial crisis, followed by a serious fall back in 2009. Since 2011, however, a new De ontwikkeling de huurprijzen volgt in grote situation has van presented itself. Whereas

prices in the owner-occupied market continued to drop, rents remained at almost the same levels. One of the main reasons has been the letting market’s recovery. In 2013 rents were once again steady, as rent levels reached € 8.80 per aantrekken van deper huurmarkt square metre month.vormt de belangrijk-

Huurprijzen dalen niet verder

lijnen de ontwikkeling van de prijzen op de koopwoningmarkt, namelijk stijgende prijzen voor het begin van de kredietcrisis, gevolgd door een flinke dip in 2009. Maar sinds 2011 doet zich een nieuwe situatie voor. Waar de prijzen op de koopwoningmarkt een verdere daling te zien geven, blijven de huurprijzen zich op ongeveer hetzelfde niveau bewegen. Het

ste reden. Ook in 2013 zijn de huurprijzen zo goed als stabiel gebleven. Het huurprijsniveau ligt rond de € 8,80 per vierkante meter per maand. Huurprijzen zijn gebaseerd op door makelaars verhuurde woningen, exclusief servicekosten, waarbij gestoffeerde/gemeubileerde huurwoningen niet zijn meegenomen.

HOMEOWNERSHIP INCREASINGLY INTERESTING, RENTING PROPERTY MORE EXPENSIVE The prices of owner-occupied homes have fallen significantly in recent years. But at the same time, prices paid for social housing have increased impressively. Hence, homeowners’ monthly housing

costs are becoming quite similar to those renting homes. In fact, in some regions homeowners’ housing costs are even lower. Purchasing a home is becoming increasingly interesting.

Kopen goedkoper, huren steeds duurder De prijzen van koopwoningen zijn de afgelopen jaren scherp gedaald. Tegelijkertijd zijn de prijzen van sociale huurwoningen fors gestegen. Dat betekent dat de woonlasten in de koopsector vergelijkbaar zijn aan

de woonlasten in de sociale huursector. In sommige regio's zijn de woonlasten van koopwoningen zelfs lager dan die van sociale huurwoningen. Kopen wordt dus steeds aantrekkelijker.

PURCHASE PRICES DOWN, RENTS UP

RENTS HAVE CEASED TO DROP

Indexed price movements of the social housing market and owner-occupied housing market

Square meter prices of rented homes 120

10.0

In 2009 rents dropped partly as more houses were let out at the bottom end of the market.

9.5

PURCHASE

9.0

110

8.5

8.0 ’06

’07

Rent levels by region in 2013 Amsterdam Het Gooi Utrecht The Hague Groningen Den Bosch Eindhoven Rotterdam

’08

’09

Median prices of rented houses € 1,330 € 1,060 € 950

’10

’11

’12

’13

100

Median m -prices of rented houses € 13.60

€ 1,020 € 760 € 900 € 830 € 720

2

€ 11.00 € 10.20 € 9.90 € 8.90

Arnhem Nijmegen Hengelo/Enschede

€ 730 € 770 € 720

€ € € € € €

8.60 8.50 8.40 8.30 8.00 7.10

Zuid-Limburg

€ 730

€ 7.10

Rents are based on houses let out by NVM brokers, exclusive of service charges, whereby (fully)furnished rented houses are not included in the calculation of prices


RENT 90

80 ’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14*

*estimate Source: Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations, NVM


HOUSING COSTS ARE MUCH MORE AFFORDABLE …

… YET THE MAXIMUM BORROWING CAPACITY IS LESS

For those who bought a terraced house in 2013, housing expenses will be an average of EUR 135 less every month compared to the same house bought in 2011.* It is not

only because house prices have dropped, but also due to lower mortgage interest rates.

Iemand die in 2013 een tussenwoning heeft gekocht, betaalt per maand gemiddeld 136 euro minder aan netto hypotheeklasten dan wanneer hetzelfde huis in

2011 was gekocht*. Dit komt niet alleen door de lagere woningprijzen, maar ook door de sterk gedaalde hypotheekrente.

Every single year, Nibud (National Institute for Family Finance Information) lays down new mortgage standards, indicating which income percentage may be spent on housing expenses. As purchasing power diminished, these

Betaalbaarheid woonlasten verbeterd...

percentages were adjusted downwards in recent years. Now the maximum mortgage for modal income groups is approximately 8% lower than in 2010. As for other income groups, percentages are anywhere between 8 and 15%.

... maar leencapaciteit verslechterd

Elk jaar stelt het Nibud nieuwe hypotheeknormen vast. Die geven aan welk percentage van het inkomen kan worden besteed aan woonlasten. Door daling van de koopkracht zijn de percentages de afgelopen jaren steeds naar beneden bijgesteld.

Inmiddels is de maximale hypotheek voor een koper met een modaal inkomen circa 8% lager dan in 2010. Voor andere inkomensgroepen ligt dit percentage tussen 8 en 15%.

BORROWING CAPACITY BY INCOME GROUP

DIFFERENCE Borrowing capacity difference between 2010 and 2014

Borrowing capacity calculated for single earners based on a 100% annuity mortgage loan

CHECKBOOK TERRACED HOUSE

2010 2014

+VSWWMRGSQI

€

€

%ZLSYWITVMGI

€

€

€

1SVXKEKIVIUYMVIH €

€

€

€

€

1SVXKEKIMRXIVIWX

2IXQSRXLP]

€

(MJJIVIRGI

MR

LSYWMRKGSWXW

50,000

€25,000

Source: Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations, NVM


200,000

250,000

-11%

-8%

€35,000

-8%

€40,000

€45,000

would still be similar to those in 2013. The main difference is that in 2013 the house will have been paid for entirely after 30 years.

150,000

€30,000

€50,000 * Assuming a 100% annuity repayment mortgage. The latter is obligatory as of 2013, but it was not yet common in 2011. If for the year 2011 a 50% interestonly mortgage is assumed, the net monthly housing costs

100,000

€55,000

-8%

-11%

-14%

-15%

Source: Nibud (National Institute for Family Finance Information), processed by NVM


PROBLEM GROUPS IN THE MORTGAGE MARKET In addition to less borrowing capacity, a growing group of consumers are having difficulty taking out a mortgage. These households are lacking permanent employment contracts (1). The mortgage advisor needs to come up with some very Naast hetarguments feit dat er minder kan worden geleend, strong in order to deviate from heeft een steeds groter wordende groep consumenten the mortgage standards, a Het so-called veel moeite om een hypotheek teusing krijgen. gaat dan om een toenemend(2). aantal zonder explain mortgage Inhuishoudens addition, more

HOUSING CORPORATIONS SELLING PROPERTY

and more households have outstanding debts, which means their houses are worth less than the mortgage loan itself. This number has gone up from 500,000 back in 2011 to about 1 million in 2013. It is a serious problem particularly among zeggen woning die minder waard is dan de youngeen households (3). Also, increasingly hypotheek. Het aantal huishoudens met een more households in arrears but forrond restschuld is gestegen are van 500.000 in 2011 naar 1now miljoen in 2013. Bij jongeto huishoudens is dit(4). they are unable move house

Probleemgroepen op de hypotheekmarkt

vast arbeidscontract (1). De hypotheekadviseur moet met goede argumenten komen om toestemming te krijgen om middels een ‘explain’-hypotheek van de hypotheeknormen af te wijken (2). Daarnaast zijn er steeds meer huishoudens met een restschuld, dat wil

NUMBER OF INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONALS UP BY ONE-THIRD

1

2

2,000

780

599

INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONAL

1,000 500 0

639 ’06

819

FLEXIBLE CONTRACT

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

Population group percentage ...

MAJOR REGIONAL DIFFERENCES Sold off in individual units by municipality in % 0% - 1% 1% - 5% 5% - 20% ’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

Source: AFM, Amweb, Volkskrant, processed by NVM

4

YOUNG PEOPLE HAVE DEBTS

’13* *Estimate

57

MORE ARREARS IN PAYMENT

100,000 80,000 60,000

29 21

40,000

11 up to 35 years 36-45 years

12

46-60 years

7

3

> 60 years

Source: Woon 2012, ASRE

20,000 ’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

> 40% Sales transactions in 2013 110,090 333 6,980 870 1,650 260 620 450 270 450 1,490 570 350 530

Sold off in individual units 11% 31% 29% 27% 24% 20% 20% 19% 19% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17%

Of which to sitting tenants 20% 50% 10% 36% 12% 6% 52% 31% 27% 33% 12% 17% 30% 29%

’13

Source: BKR (Credit Registration Office) Mortgage Barometer


20% - 40%

Municipality Nederland Zuidplas Amsterdam Zoetermeer Eindhoven Huizen Deventer Velsen Hollands Kroon Den Helder Groningen Purmerend Noordoostpolder Hengelo

Households with mortgage arrears

... actively in search of a house ... with an outstanding debt

34

Corporaties stoten woningbezit af

relatief veel uitpondingen kunnen de vaak hoge kortingen die worden gegeven tot grote problemen leiden. Particuliere woningbezitters die hun huis willen verkopen, zijn vaak genoodzaakt hun vraagprijs fors te laten zakken.

EXPLAIN SHARE MUCH LOWER

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%


3

usually high discounts offered can cause major problems. Private homeowners who wish to sell their property, are often forced to lower their asking prices considerably.

Explain mortgages granted in %

Independent professionals and flexible contracts x1,000

1,500

probleem het grootst (3). Tot slot kampen steeds meer huishoudens met betalingsachterstanden op hun hypotheek en zit een verhuizing er voorlopig niet in (4).

Of all private transactions concluded in 2013, 11% involved rented houses sold by housing corporations (sold off in individual units). One in five rented houses was sold to the sitting tenant. The number of houses sold individually strongly depends Vanthe alle municipality in 2013 gerealiseerde particulier verkopen on involved. In Zuidplas had 11% betrekking op door corporaties verkochte and Amsterdam, about 30% of de allvijf houses huurwoningen (uitpondingen). Eén op were sold offisinverkocht individual huurwoningen aan deunits, zittendecompared huurder. Het11% percentage verschilt sterk per to in theuitpondingen city of Rotterdam. Although gemeente. In Zuidplas en Amsterdam is rond 30% in city, many housing corporation vanthis de verkochte woningen aan particulieren een homes areterwijl sold to investors. are uitponding, in Rotterdam ditThese percentage slechts rond 11% ligt. Daar wordt echter veel diffimainly corporations facing financial corporatiebezit aan beleggers verkocht. Het zijn met culty. In residential areas with relatively name corporaties die in financiële problemen zijn many houses individually, the met gekomen, die hunsold bezitoff verkopen. In woonwijken

Source: land registry, private transactions only


BUSINESS

BUSINESS


THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | BUSINESS | 35

HIGH SUPPLY LEVELS … POOREST DEMAND balance more and more. For instance, supply of offices is almost nine times as high as the number of square metres let out or sold in 2013. Ratio is slightly more favourable as far as industrial spaces and retail property are involved.

Even though the main segments of the commercial property market (offices, industrial spaces and retail property) are quite different in terms of structure and size, they are alike in the sense that since the outbreak of the financial crisis, demand and supply ratios have been off

Te veel aanbod en te weinig vraag Ondanks het feit dat de belangrijkste segmenten van de markt voor commercieel vastgoed (kantoren, bedrijfsruimten en winkels) qua structuur en omvang sterk uiteenlopen, hebben zij gemeen dat sinds het uitbreken van de kredietcrisis de vraag- en aanbod-

verhoudingen steeds verder uit balans zijn geraakt. Zo is het aanbod van kantoren bijna negen keer groter dan het aantal vierkante meters dat in 2013 werd verhuurd en verkocht. Bij bedrijfsruimten en winkels is de verhouding wat gunstiger.

MORE PROPERTY AVAILABLE In 2013, the commercial property market saw the number of premises being offered rise even further. Although last year this number went up in all submarkets, it did climb most strongly as far as retail property is involved. Many premises did

not welcome new users as more than half the premises available at year-end 2012 were still offered for rent or sale towards the end of 2013. This is almost as many as in the 2011-2012 period.

De markt moest in 2013 toezien hoe het aantal aangeboden objecten verder toenam. De toename van het aantal objecten was echter kleiner dan in 2012, zowel absoluut als procentueel. Hoewel in alle deelmarkten het aantal objecten vorig jaar omhoog ging, was de stijging het sterkst bij de winkels. Voor

een groot aantal objecten kon vorig jaar geen nieuwe gebruiker worden gevonden. Meer dan de helft van de objecten die eind 2012 werd aangeboden stond eind 2013 nog te huur of te koop, vrijwel evenveel als in de periode 2011-2012.

Aantal aangeboden objecten toegenomen

PROPERTY FLOWS IN FOCUS Supply at year-end 2012

Withdrawn Sold in 2013 in 2013

New supply in 2013 7,660

OFFICE SPACE

607

146

Let out in 2013

Supply at year-end 2013

825

New

14,130

12,916

Old

Stock, supply and take-up in 2013 in million square metres

8,101

297

1,697

676

357

1,006

CE

A

SP

L IA

R

ST

13,070

3

12,162

2

ck Sto

0

U ND

I

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

2,874

8,048 Unaltered

up

36 | BUSINESS | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

1,851

406

84

963

7,008 Unaltered

7,376

6,587

ly

pp

Su

RETAIL SPACE

706

E

31

0

T

TA RE ock St

AC

.9

eak

8

SP IL

up

ke-

.4

ly

pp

Su

7

3.

5,349

0

4 9

E AC SP Stock E FIC OF

keTa p u

.3

15

2

ly

pp

Su

2,597

Ta

1,442

177

1,488

3,480 Unaltered


GREATER LETTING OPPORTUNITIES Of all the premises that joined the market in the last quarter of 2012, more were let out in one year compared to the same period a year before. In other words: the letting opportunities of commercial property were slightly more promising in Van hetNonetheless, aanbod dat in het laatstevacant kwartaaloffice van 2012 2013. selling

SALES OPPORTUNITIES SLIGHTLY BETTER

spaces presented quite a few challenges. Only one quarter of office buildings that were put on the market in the fourth quarter of 2012 were actually let out in 2013. The retail market did a lot better as almost 40% of the ‘new’ supply was let out leegstaande veel problemen. Slechts or sold lastkantoorruimten year.

Verhuurkans verbeterd

op de markt kwam, werd een groter deel binnen een jaar verhuurd dan in dezelfde periode een jaar eerder. Anders gezegd: de verhuurkansen van commercieel vastgoed zijn in 2013 enigszins verbeterd. Niettemin ondervond de afzet van

een kwart van de kantoorobjecten die in het vierde kwartaal van 2012 op de markt kwam, werd in 2013 verhuurd. De winkelmarkt deed het echter een stuk beter. Vorig jaar werd bijna 40% van het ‘nieuwe’ aanbod verhuurd of verkocht, 6% meer dan in 2012.

OFFICE SPACE New supply Q4 2012 let out in … quarter

Withdrawn/sold

1st

8.0%

nd

2

3rd 4th

better than in 2012. As in the rented segment, the office market is also the last on the list in the purchasing segment.

De verkoop van commercieel vastgoed verliep in 2013 duidelijk stroever dan de verhuur. Toch gaat het ook op de koopmarkt beter dan in 2012, zij het dat de

verbetering klein is. Net als in het huursegment is ook in het koopsegment de kantorenmarkt hekkensluiter.

Ook kans op verkoop iets beter

OFFICE SPACE New supply 4Q 2012 sold in … quarter

4.5%

4.6%

4.2%

6.8% 2nd 3rd

6.8%

Withdrawn/sold

10.7% 3rd

6.0% 4th

5.1%

1st

3.6%

nd

2

4.0%

3rd

3.1%

4th

5.4%

Withdrawn/sold

3rd 4th

11.7%

3.4%

13.9%

3.9%

7.8%

2.8%

6.2%

4.4%

Let out within 4 quarters 39.6% (2012: 36.4%) Still available after 4 quarters 45.9% (2012: 45.6%)


Withdrawn/let out 5.3%

5.4%

5.0%

6.7%

4.2%

5.4%

2.8%

6.1%

Sold within 4 quarters 17.3% (2012: 16.3%) Still available after 4 quarters 59.2% (2012: 61.2%)

RETAIL SPACE New supply Q4 2012 let out in … quarter

2nd

1.1% 7.3%

INDUSTRIAL SPACE New supply 4Q 2012 sold in … quarter


1st

5.1%


INDUSTRIAL SPACE New supply Q4 2012 let out in … quarter

2nd

3.7% 4th

12.4%

7.1%

4.5% 4.5%


1st

Withdrawn/let out

1st

4.5%

8.8% 4.1%

In 2013, selling commercial property was clearly more of a challe nge compared to the letting market. Nevertheless, the purchasing market too has been doing

RETAIL SPACE New supply 4Q 2012 sold in … quarter 1st 2nd rd

3

4th

Withdrawn/let out 7.0%

4.3%

3.0%

4.3%

3.5%

7.4%

3.0%

7.8%



LONGER SUPPLY TERM, TRANSACTION PERIODS ARE STEADY place. Prior to the financial crisis, this period was 2.5 months shorter, however supply includes many premises that have been on the market for quite some time, pushing supply terms even further in 2013. te koop.Office space in particular is usually Van de drie deelmarkten presteertofdetime. kantorenmarkt available for a long period

Due to poorer demand for commercial property, letting out/selling offices, retail outlets or industrial spaces is taking longer. Transaction periods, however, seem to have stabilised. In 2012 and 2013 it took average months the Sinds hetan uitbreken vanofde8crisis duurtfrom het steeds langer voordat het commerciele vastgoedaanbod moment a property was offered for rentdoor or de markt wordt opgenomen. sale, to the day on which transaction took Daarnaast staat het aanbod steeds langer te huur of

Looptijd en transactieduur

het slechtste en doet de winkelmarkt het het best.

258

Supply term in days

252 236

Time required to sell in days

3 1 65 ye da ar ys

262 276

13

Zuid-Holland

meters kantoorruimte dat direct beschikbaar is voor de verhuur of verkoop. De toename werd voor een belangrijk deel veroorzaakt door een vermindering van het ruimtegebruik, zowel bij bedrijven als bij instellingen. Daarbij speelden behalve Het Nieuwe Werken ook kostenbesparingen een belangrijke rol.

Noord-Holland

11

284 246

195

Time required to let out in days

Even though hardly any offices were under construction in 2013, once again the market met up with rising supply levels, which means more office square metres were immediately available for rent or sale. Rise to a great extent followed from Ondanks het feit dat in 2013 nauwelijks kantoren in less usewerden of space, in companies as opnieuw well as aanbouw genomen, werd de markt organisations. tovan thehet new way geconfronteerd metIn eenaddition verruiming aanbod, dat wil zeggen een toename van het of working, cuts mattered asaantal well. vierkante

Aanbod van kantoren neemt nog steeds toe

12

,

252

OFFICE SPACE

THE NUMBER OF AVAILABLE OFFICES CONTINUES TO RISE

10

182

OFFICE SPACE BY PROVINCE 458

Office space in m2 x million

9

The time required to sell or let out property is the average number of days premises are offered before these are sold or let out. ‘13

‘12

Stock

‘11 ‘10 ‘09 257

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

246

Supply term in days

254


234

239

586

224

7

630 678

242

233

389

‘12

4

263

206

210

173

2

591

202


365

429

1 433

‘12

‘11 ‘10 ‘09


Groningen Friesland Flevoland Drenthe Zeeland

0

479 ‘13

Overijssel Limburg

217

200 203


3

541

263

205

Supply term in days

Gelderland 498

‘11 ‘10 ‘09

RETAIL SPACE

Noord-Brabant

5 464

The supply term is the average number of days premises are offered that have not yet been sold or let out. ‘13

Utrecht 6

192 187


Supply

8

543

514

’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13 ’09 – ’13


MAJOR REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN VACANCY RATES In addition to municipalities with many vacant offices and offices for rent, vacancy was hardly an issue in some municipalities. Sorrow and grief did not hit the entire country. Most Dutch municipalities with high office supply levels can be found in the Randstad area. Naast gemeenten met buitensporig veel aanbod van

It is where most premises were built in the past. The percentages shown illustrate the ratio between the immediately available supply and total stock. At yearend 2013, approximately 16.7% of office stock was available for rent or sale in the Netherlands. Daar is in het verleden ook het meest gebouwd. De

Regionaal grote verschillen leegstand

leegstaande en nog te verhuren kantoren zijn er gelukkig ook gemeenten die nauwelijks last hebben van leegstand. Het is dus niet overal kommer en kwel. Gemeenten in ons land met veel kantorenaanbod zijn vooral te vinden in de Randstad.

hier vermelde percentages geven de verhouding weer tussen het direct beschikbare aanbod en de totale voorraad. Eind 2013 omvatte de kantorenvoorraad in ons land 49 miljoen m2. Daarvan stond 16% leeg.

Vacancy Municipalities with high vacancy rates levels, in % 39.3 Winterswijk 34.6 Heemstede Lochem Nieuwegein

34.5 32.0

Ouder-Amstel Kerkrade

31.9 31.2

Gilze en Rijen Stichtse Vecht

30.4 28.9

Capelle a/d IJssel Amstelveen Rijswijk

28.4 28.0 27.8

Almere

27.8

Gouda Best Hoogezand-Sappemeer

27.4 26.4 24.9

Emmen

24.4

Spijkenisse Helmond Weesp

24.4 23.8 23.4

Veenendaal

23.4

Municipalities with low vacancy rates Veendam Wageningen Hardenberg Utrechtse Heuvelrug Moerdijk Terneuzen Maassluis Noordoostpolder Duiven Goes

AGING OFFICES ARE PRESENTING A PROBLEM Vacancy in the Netherlands is even more challenging as many office buildings offered for rent or sale are no longer meeting today’s requirements. Especially the fact that almost two-thirds of the total office supply is at least 18 years old, is a Het leegstandprobleem in Nederland wordt complication.

For office users in search of modern premises, finding a suitable place is becoming increasingly difficult. It is because property developers are building fewer premises. Many municipalities have put restraints on new development, while Veel gemeenten hebben een remtoo op nieuwbouw gezet, financiers and investors have adopted terwijl ook financiers en beleggers een afwachtende a wait-and-see attitude.

Veroudering van kantoren probleem

verzwaard door het feit dat veel kantoorgebouwen die te huur of te koop staan, niet meer voldoen aan de gestelde eisen. Vooral het gegeven dat bijna tweederde van het totale aanbod van kantoren ouder is dan 18 jaar, is een complicatie. Voor kantoorgebruikers die op zoek zijn naar een modern onderkomen wordt het echter steeds moeilijker om een geschikte plek te vinden. Er wordt immers door projectontwikkelaars minder nieuwbouw gerealiseerd.

houding hebben aangenomen.

NEW-BUILD OFFICES Construction volume for the open market x1,000 m2 800 700 600

OLD OFFICES Supply by age, in %

500 400 300

Year of construction 2013 2005

200

2000

1995

100 0

2010

‘06

‘07

‘08

‘09

‘10

‘11

‘12

‘13

0-2 year

0.5

Vacancy levels, in % 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.1

8-12 year

6 7.5 Valkenswaard Vlissingen Harderwijk Rijssen-Holten De Ronde Venen Oud-Beijerland Gorinchem Vught Katwijk Boxtel


4.1 4.6 4.7

13-17 year

18+ year

20.5

65.5

3-7 year

4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.7 6.1


THE BALANCE LOST ratios off balance even more. Although the entire country was dealing with the same problem, the gap was greatest in the provinces of Drenthe, Flevoland and Friesland.

Demand for office space, or rather the lease and sales transaction volumes in the open market, has been gliding down for quite some time now. In 2013, once again fewer office square metres were taken up, pushing supply and demand

Balans zoek

DIFFERENT DEMAND IN EACH SECTOR AND EVERY YEAR using considerably less office space compared to previous years. Back then they represented a share of almost 20% in demand for offices.

There are various causes of the disap pointing demand for offices. These include the faltering economy and also the urge to proceed efficiently and economically. In addition, the authorities have been

Vraag verschilt per sector en per jaar

Er zijn verschillende oorzaken van de tegenvallende vraag naar kantoren, zoals de haperende economie en de noodzaak om efficient en kostenbesparend te

Er zijn verschillende oorzaken van de tegenvallende vraag naar kantoren, zoals de haperende economie en de noodzaak om efficient en kostenbesparend te werken. Daarnaast speelt een rol dat de overheid veel minder kantoorruimte huurt dan enkele jaren geleden, toen zij nog goed was voor een aandeel van bijna 20% in de vraag naar kantoren

11

15

Ind pub ustry lic and util itie s

er Oth ns atio anis ands org ie pan com

De vraag naar kantoorruimte, ofwel het volume van huur- en kooptransacties op de vrije markt, maakt al enige tijd een glijvlucht omlaag. Ook in 2013 ging de opname van kantoormeters opnieuw naar beneden. Daardoor raakte de verhouding tussen vraag en aanbod verder uit balans. Hoewel alle delen van ons land hiermee worden geconfronteerd, is de kloof het grootst in Drenthe, Flevoland en Friesland.

werken. Daarnaast speelt een rol dat de overheid veel minder kantoorruimte huurt dan enkele jaren geleden, toen zij nog goed was voor een aandeel van bijna 20% in de vraag naar kantoren

11

2,117

2,422

2013

Office supply and demand in m² x1,000

Demand for offices, in %

24

Ba ins nk a sec uran nd tor ce

Supply Demand n

io

Friesland

765 30

3

12 11

646

Zuid-Holland

Flevoland

139

Groningen 384

94

Zeeland

9

19

107

44 45 Overijssel

Noord-Brabant

Gelderland

2006

Limburg


6

d on, cati e an Edu lthcar heaerinary vet vices ser

18

Bank and insurance sector

Demand for offices, in %

1

on unicati re3 Comm and nies - 3 g n pa i s d u Tra r com nd rs n i tte pai tio of fi n c u s tr tio e ns rm rta ag Co try, fi po stor s an d Tr an

4

256

19

10

5

Drenthe Utrecht

9

O businther servicess es

Co m ind pute ust r ry

Noord-Holland

139

197

4

er Oth s tion nisa and ies pan

5

4

com

131

4

orga

C

190

4

Co try nstr , fi uc rm tio Tra so ni n n an spor f fitt dus d s tat e tor ion rs ag e P defe ubl. ad n m sociace and in., l insu stat. ranc e Trading and repair companies om

255

2

l econ. s Financia service business

n mu

1,107

2

r ute mp y Co dustr in

t ica

10

Pu st blic an ratio ad so d st n, d min cia at ef il in uto enc sur ry e an ce

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES

tion, Educahcare and healt inary veter es servic

Financial ec business serv on. ices

Oth busine er servic ss es

In 10 pu dus bl try ic a uti nd liti es

9

7


G4 FACING THE SAME PROBLEMS IN THE OFFICE MARKET

RENTS ARE UNDER EVEN MORE PRESSURE

lessees and buyers were less interested although decline was limited in the Dutch capital. Interestingly enough, Utrecht did succeed in protecting its transaction volumes and also, availability levels de belangstelling van huurders en kopers verminddropped in this part of the Netherlands.

Like the rest of the Netherlands, the four major Dutch cities of Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht are also facing high vacancy rates and hesitant trends in demand. In 2013, the city of Net als in de rest van Nederland hebben ook de vier Rotterdam in particular saw demand for grote steden te maken met veel leegstand en een offices In Amsterdam, aarzelingdrop in de alarmingly. vraagontwikkeling. Vooral Rotterdam

G4 zelfde problemen kantorenmarkt

erde. Maar de teruggang bleef binnen de perken. Opvallend is dat Utrecht erin slaagde om het transactievolume te handhaven. Bovendien ging daar ook het aanbod omlaag.

heeft in 2013 de vraag naar kantoren flink zien teruglopen. Amsterdam moest eveneens toezien hoe

Take-up in m2 x1,000

Supply in m2 x1,000

203

214

188

’11

’12

’13

1,038 1,038

Today, the problems facing the office market are also becoming clearly visible in rents. The decline that set off back in 2008 continued at greater speed. Not only the existing offices had to settle for less,

rents were also under pressure in the new buildings segment. Figures, however, fail to provide a complete image as incentives (e.g. rent-free periods and other benefits) have not been taken into consideration.

Huurprijzen verder onder druk De problemen op de kantorenmarkt beginnen nu ook duidelijk zichtbaar te worden in de huurprijzen. De daling, die in 2008 is begonnen, heeft het afgelopen jaar versterkt doorgezet. Niet alleen bestaande kantoren moesten een veer laten, ook in het

nieuwbouwsegment stond de huurprijs onder druk. Overigens geven de cijfers nog geen compleet beeld, aangezien bij de berekening ervan geen rekening is gehouden met ‘incentives’, zoals huurvrije perioden en andere tegemoetkomingen.

Vacancy levels, in %

RENTS MUCH LOWER IN PREVIOUS YEAR

1,108

Median office rents in € per m2 per annum

25 20

200

15 10

Amsterdam

’11

’12

’11

’13

’12

’13

180

117 ’11

66 ’12

25

46 ’13

574

639

724

20 15

NEW PROPERTY

10

Rotterdam

45

73

67

’11

’12

’13

’11

’12

’13

160 ’11

’12

’13

163

25

462

522

592

140

20

138

15

EXISTING PROPERTY

10

The Hague

’11

’12

’13

’11

’12

130

’13

120

65

73

70

’11

’12

’13

25

330

407

401

20

113

15

100

10

Utrecht

’11

’12

’13


’11

’12

’13

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13


MANY INDUSTRIAL PREMISES ARE AVAILABLE

STRUCTURAL SUPPLY GOES UP AGAIN

Although business confidence improved significantly last year, the industrial space availability levels went up for the fifth time in a row. Like the office market, the industrial space market is also suffering from an aging stock. In addition, finding

new users for vacant premises is not easy at all. Unlike the case with offices and retail outlets, many industrial buildings are user specific, which means they are ‘built-to-suit’.

Hoewel het producentenvertrouwen vorig jaar sterk verbeterde, is het aanbod van bedrijfsruimte voor het vijfde jaar op rij toegenomen. Net als op de kantorenmarkt heeft ook de bedrijfsruimtemarkt met een verouderde voorraad te maken. Bovendien is het

lastiger om voor een leegstaand bedrijfspand een nieuwe gebruiker te vinden. Want anders dan bij kantoren en winkels, zijn veel bedrijfsgebouwen gebruikersspecifiek, dat wil zeggen op maat gebouwd.

Bedrijfsruimtemarkt kampt met veel aanbod

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES Industrial space in m x1,000

Supply starting at 100 m

2

0

500

2

1000

1500

2000

2500

Take-up starting at 100 m

2

Structural industrial supply levels continued to climb in 2013. Especially in Flevoland and Zeeland, a serious amount of space has been available for more than three years.

Structureel aanbod opnieuw omhoog

Het structurele aandeel van het aanbod bedrijfsruimten nam in 2013 verder toe. Met name in Flevoland en Zeeland staat een aanzienlijk deel van het aanbod al langer dan 3 jaar leeg.

Total industrial space available in the Netherlands exceeding 750 m2

> 3 years available > 5 years available

18.1% 2012 12.1 mln

5.4%

18.3%

DIFFERENCES ARE LESS SIGNIFICANT

6.4%

2013 12.6 mln

Structural supply share out of total supply

3000

’13 ’12

Noord-Brabant

’11

2012

’13 ’12

16%

Zuid-Holland

’11

Gelderland

22%

’11 ’13 ’12

Noord-Holland

Overijssel

’11 ’12

21%

Utrecht

’12

17%

18%

Limburg

’12

’12

’12

27%

’12

20%

Drenthe 15%

’11 ’13

20% - 30%

Friesland

’11 ’13

20%

At least 30%

’11 ’13

19%

12%

10% - 20%

Flevoland

29%

14%

’11 ’13

24%

23%

20%

’11 ’13

18%

32%

11%

’13

’13

17%

15%

’11 ’12

21%

17%

’13 ’12

2013

14%

Groningen

’11 ’13 ’12 ’11


Zeeland

Down Same Up


LOGISTICS PROPERTY: ALL THAT IS GOLD DOES NOT GLITTER It would appear that the logistics occupa tional market (distribution centres and large-scale storage spaces) has become rather dull. It is because of rising supply levels, while demand from lessees and Het heeft er alle schijn van dat de gebruikersmarkt buyers has seriously dropped. Obviously voor logistiek vastgoed (distributiecentra en this had major impact on as glans grootschalige opslagruimten) ietsrents, van haar heeft verloren. Aanleiding vormt hetas oplopend prices fell particularly as far existing aanbod van leegstaande ruimten, terwijl daarnaast buildings are involved. Nevertheless, it de vraag van huurders en kopers behoorlijk is should be stated supplyhaar is teruggelopen. Een en that andertoday’s heeft natuurlijk uitwerking op de and huurprijzen niet new gemist. Vooral bij very outdated that few premises bestaande gebouwen is de prijs flink gedaald. Bij dit are available.

MORE VACANT RETAIL PROPERTY

Logistiek: niet alles goud wat er blinkt

Because of the financial crisis, less consumer confidence and increasing sales on the internet, retail vacancy rates continued to rise in 2013. The total number of retail space available increased in almost each province with the exception Door de economische het lage consumentenverof F levoland andcrisis, Zuid-Holland, which saw trouwen en toenemende verkopen via internet is de supply clearly drop compared to 2012. winkelleegstand in 2013 verder opgelopen. In vrijwel Comparatively, supply rose strongest alle provincies nam in 2013 het totaal aantal

in the provinces of Limburg, Noord- Brabant and Friesland. In the province of Groningen supply was almost the same as in 2012. In addition, the number of vacant retail premises slightly went up in larger city centres, in the main shopping streets provincies Limburg, enshopping Friesland. In (A locations) butNoord-Brabant also in other de provincie Groningen bleef het aanbod nagenoeg areas (shopping streets leading to the gelijk aan dat van 2012. In de grotere stadscentra main areas).winkelpanden vorig jaar ging hetshopping aantal leegstaande

CHANGES IN SUPPLY 2012-2013

RISING SUPPLY IN THE RETAIL MARKET

Meer leegstaande winkels

Logistics property in million m2 Total stock Supply

aangeboden winkelmeters toe. Alleen Flevoland en Zuid-Holland hadden ten opzichte van 2012 met een duidelijke daling van het aanbod te maken. Het aanbod steeg verhoudingsgewijs het sterkst in de

Demand 20

alles moet wel worden aangetekend dat het huidige aanbod sterk is verouderd en dat er weinig nieuwbouw voorhanden is.

iets omhoog, zowel in de hoofdwinkelstraten (A locaties) als in de winkelgebieden daarbuiten (aanloopstraten).

Retail property in m2 x million < -10% –10% - 0%

PRICES CONTINUE TO DROP

> +15%

+10%

30

15

80

+12%

70

-18%

0%

New property

60

25 +8%

+4%

-4%

50

Existing property

40 30

Take-up

+14%

+10% - +15%

Average rent in € per m2 per annum

Supply

Total stock

0%

0% - +10%

+8% ’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

+16% 20

10

+17%

15

RISE NOT ONLY DUE TO NEW PROPERTY Retail market supply in m2

Supply as % of stock 5

2006

7.2%

2013

12.5%

0

’06

’07


’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

2012

2013

Noord-Brabant Zuid-Holland Noord-Holland

291,500 337,000 268,000

338,000 324,500 301,000

Gelderland Overijssel Limburg Friesland Drenthe

280,500 241,500 144,500 129,500 105,500

290,500 240,500 169,500 148,500 116,000

Utrecht Groningen Zeeland Flevoland

99,500 105,000 50,000 65,000

107,500 104,500 53,500 53,000

10

5

2 1 0

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13


AMSTERDAM HAS THE STRONGEST RETAIL MARKET Of all Dutch municipalities with more than 100,000 citizens, relatively speaking the city of Amsterdam has the lowest retail vacancy. It means that the Dutch capital is the strongest shopping city in

the Netherlands. Enschede, on the other hand, has the highest amount of retail space available for rent or sale, also due to a large supply of large-scale and peripheral retail outlets (PDV/GDV).

ALSO MORE STRUCTURAL RETAIL VACANCY

Amsterdam sterkste winkelmarkt

Structural supply of retail space, the number of square metres available for more than three years, is high particularly outside Randstad. The provinces of Friesland

and Overijssel are the ones looking at high structural vacancy rates. Structural supply levels continued to rise in 2013.

Van de gemeenten met meer dan 100.000 inwoners doet heeft Amsterdam verhoudingsgewijs het minste aanbod winkelruimte. Enschede kent het hoogte percentage winkelmeters in aanbod.

Het structurele aanbod van winkelruimte, het aantal vierkante meters dat al langer dan 3 jaar wordt aangeboden, is met name buiten de Randstad groot.

Provincies met veel structurele leegstand zijn Drenthe, Zeeland en Limburg. In 2013 is het structurele aanbod verder toegenomen.

TEKST VOEGT PROOF TOE Claritas est etiam processus dynamicus qui sequitur mutationem consuetudium lectorum mirum. Nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat

AMSTERDAM STRONGEST, ENSCHEDE LAST ON THE LIST Retail space available as a percentage of stock

STRUCTURAL SUPPLY OF RETAIL SPACE 2012

1

Amsterdam 3.2%

2

Venlo 3.9%

3

Den Bosch 4.0%

4

Eindhoven 4.3%

5

Utrecht 4.6%

6

Maastricht 5.3%

7

Apeldoorn 5.3%

8

The Hague 5.4%

9

Dordrecht 5.4%

10

Ook meer structurele leegstand van winkels

Amersfoort 5.5%

11

Rotterdam 5.6%

12

Zwolle 5.6%

13

Ede 6.0%

14

Almere 7.2%

15

Groningen 7.6%

16

Arnhem 8.0%

17

Leiden 8.1%

18

Zaanstad 8.3%

19

Breda 8.5%

20

Haarlem 8.8%

21

Nijmegen 8.8%

22

Emmen 9.7%

23

Tilburg 10.0%

24

Leeuwarden 11.0%

25

Enschede 17.2%


12% 15%

2013 13%

7%

8%

7%

6%

13% 11%

11% 16%

12%

11%

12% 17% 7%

4%

0% - 5%

16%

5% - 10% 10% - 15%

8%

12%

8%

14% 10% 14%

Down Same Up


HOW RETAIL SECTORS DEVELOPED IN 2013

RENTS AT THE LOWEST LEVEL

Certain retail sectors suffered even more from changing market conditions. For instance, media stores (CDs, books) were having a hard time in 2013, as both the

Due to high availability levels and poorer demand, commercial property rents continued to drop in 2013. As a result, prices are now at the lowest level since

the past 8 years. Office rents in particular dropped significantly, yet prices charged for retail and industrial space also fell more strongly than in previous years.

Door het ruime aanbod en de afgenomen vraag zijn de huurprijzen van commercieel vastgoed in 2013 verder gedaald. Als gevolg daarvan liggen de prijzen op het laagste niveau van de laatste 8 jaar. Het zijn

met name de huurprijzen van kantoren die vorig jaar een scherpe daling te zien gaven. Maar ook op de markt voor winkels en bedrijfsruimten daalden de prijzen sterker dan in voorgaande jaren.

number of stores and the total floor area used by this sector dropped significantly. The same happened in the living and fashion sectors.

Branche-ontwikkeling 2013 Changes in Changes in floor area numbers

Retail sector

Household & luxurious items Cars & bicycles DIY

+5% +2%

0% +1%

Department stores

+2% +1%

-2% +4%

Foodstuff Personal care Jewellers & optics

+1% +1% +1%

0% 0% 0%

0%

-2%

Antics & art Clothing & fashion

0% 0% -1%

-2% -4% -3%

Hobby

-2%

-2%

Shoes & leather items Living White and brown goods

-3% -3% -3%

-3% -3% -2%

Media

-9%

-10%

Sports & game Plant & animal

Bepaalde branches worden extra hard geraakt door de veranderende marktomstandigheden. Mediawinkels (cd's, boeken) bijvoorbeeld hebben het duidelijk zwaar gehad in 2013, want zowel het aantal winkels als het totale door deze branche in gebruik zijnde vloeroppervlak is sterk gedaald. Overigens gebeurde dit ook in de branches wonen en mode.

Huurprijzen naar laagste niveau

RENTS CONTINUE TO DROP Rents in € per m2 per annum

200

LARGER

RETAIL SPACE 8% 164

Household & luxurious items

DIY Antics & art

Changing number in use

Clothing & fashion Shoes & leather items

Living

OFFICE SPACE

Department stores Foodstuff

Sports & game Jewellers & optics

-8%

154 140

Cars & bicycles

Personal care

Plant & animal

LESS

150

4%

MORE

115

100

Hobby

White and brown goods

-10%

Media

SMALLER Changing floor area in use


Source: Locatus Processed by: NVM

Persoonlijke W Kleding & Mode Schoenen & Lede Juwelier &50Optiek 50Ar Huishoudelijke- & Luxe Antiek & Kunst Spo Hobby Media Plant & Dier Bruin & Auto & Fiets 0 Doe-Het-Zelf ’06 W leegstand V Ambacht Financiële Instelling Pa

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

’07

’08

’09

’10

46

’11

’12

’13


COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICES ARE MUCH LOWER With some exceptions, commercial property selling prices are seriously under pressure. One of the reasons is the fact that banks have restricted funding. In 2013, prices went down significantly yet again, with offices in particular becoming much cheaper. It also turns

out commercial property prices dropped even faster compared to rents, as many investors have kept these at artificially high levels. To this end, investors provide incentives including rent-free periods and furnishing allowance.

Uitzonderingen daargelaten staan de verkoopprijzen van commercieel vastgoed sterk onder druk. Dit komt onder meer doordat banken de financiering hebben beperkt. Ook in 2013 gingen de prijzen flink omlaag. Vooral kantoren zijn in 2013 veel goedkoper geworden.

Overigens blijkt dat de koopprijzen voor commercieel onroerend goed harder zijn gedaald dan de huurprijzen. Veel beleggers houden de huurprijzen kunstmatig hoog. Dat doen zij door het verstrekken van ‘incentives’, zoals huurvrije perioden en inrichtingsbijdragen.

Prijs commercieel vastgoed sterk gedaald

DUTCH INVESTORS STILL RETICENT Although commercial property prices have dropped in recent years, many Dutch investors are still reluctant to access the market. In 2013, many funds remained on the sideline, apparently there were still too many risks as far as they are concerned. Nevertheless, there Hoewelbeen de prijzen commercieel vastgoed de have somevan positive changes. For afgelopen jaren zijn gedaald, vinden veel Nederinstance, foreign investors’ forte landse beleggers het nog te riskantdemand om de markt

offices in particular was steady and in fact, this sector saw investment levels rise compared to 2012 (mainly in Amsterdam). Also, last year demand for industrial buildings intensified thanks to increasing sales of distribution centres. The slightly disappointing retail investment volumes beleggers naarto kantoren goed op peil en werd is also due the fact that fewer newin dit segment zelfs meer belegd dan in 2012. Dat gebeurde shopping centres Ook were under vooral in Amsterdam. steeg vorigconstruction. jaar de vraag

Nederlandse beleggers nog terughoudend

betreden. In 2013 bleven dan ook veel fondsen langs de zijlijn staan. Kennelijk zagen zij nog te veel risico's. Toch waren er ook positieve ontwikkelingen. Zo bleef de vraag van met name buitenlandse

naar bedrijfsgebouwen. Dat laatste was te danken aan de verhoogde afzet van distributiecentra. Dat het volume van de winkelbeleggingen wat tegenviel, komt onder meer doordat er ook minder nieuwe winkelcentra in aanbouw zijn genomen.

SELLING PRICES TUMBLE DOWN Difference in median selling prices compared to last year in %, 2005 = 100

SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE Commercial property investments in € x 1mln.

130

12,000 120

RETAIL SPACE 10,000

INDUSTRIAL SPACE 110

8,000 100

5,134 OFFICE SPACE 6,000

90

-16.3%

4,000

80

-19.5%

OFFICE SPACE 1,292 INDUSTRIAL SPACE

1,460

2,000

70

-38.8%

1,409

537

RETAIL SPACE

521

60 ’05

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10


’11

’12

’13

0

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13


AGRICULTURAL & RURAL

AGRICULTURAL & RURAL


THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | AGRICULTURAL & RURAL | 59

A STIFF AGRICULTURAL PROPERTY MARKET

SOME SECTORS DID WELL

The agricultural property market was anything but painless in 2013: supply increased or remained almost steady, while the number of transactions De agrarische vastgoedmarkt verliep uiterst dropped. Most transactions that moeizaam in 2013: het aanbod nam toedid of bleef nagenoeg stabiel, terwijllower het aantal take place involved pricetransacties levels. daalde. Voor zover transacties plaatsvonden, lagen Especially in the poultry and horse die qua prijs op een lager niveau. Met name in de industry,en transactions The pluimveepaardensectorwere warenscarce. weinig transacties horticultural – more specifically te bespeuren. Deindustry tuinbouwsector – meer in het

Last year some sectors did well, particularly due to good proceeds in these sectors. In addition, expectations were positive

greenhouse farming – didin see the number Agrarische vastgoedmarkt stroef 2013...

bijzonder de glastuinbouw – kende wel een toename

POULTRY FARMS

of transactions climb, even though many of these transactions involved compulsory sales. The major reasonszijfor dealing in het aantal transacties, het dat een with groot aantal a stiff market include the lack of buyers, hiervan uit gedwongen verkopen bestond. Belangrijke redenen voor de stroeve markt zijn het ontbreken difficult funding, obtaining the acquisition van kopers, de moeizame financiering, de trage permits required takes ages and the verstrekking van benodigde vergunningen bij koop frustrating factor of (unsuitable) buildings en de belemmerende factor van (ongeschikte) on bebouwing agricultural land. op het agrarisch perceel.

and sufficient property buyers showed up. It was mainly readily marketable property that was sold without too much fuss.

HORTICULTURAL BUSINESSES (excl. glasshouse farming) GLASSHOUSE FARMING

’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

’08 ’09

’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

20

Companies available as at 31 December Companies sold

HORSE FARMS AND HORSE RIDING ACADEMIES ’08 ’09

’10 ’11’12

’13

40

ARABLE FARMS ’08

60

’09 ’10

’11 ’12 ’13

DAIRY FARMS ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

80

100

PIGFARMS

120 20

140

40 60

160 80

180 100 120

’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

VEAL FARMS ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

140 160 Source for supply: NVM Source for transactions: NVM, land registry

60 | AGRICULTURAL & RURAL | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013


AGRICULTURAL PROPERTY SUPPLY BY SECTOR limited availability of arable farms, veal and poultry farms (laying hens, broilers, turkeys). ‘Other companies’ include care farms, dog kennels, camping sites and cheese farms.

At year-end 2013, the Netherlands was home to more than 700 agricultural firms ready to welcome new owners. Almost one quarter of these businesses involved horse farms and horse riding academies. This Eind 2013 waren was in Nederland ruim 700 agrarische ample supply counterbalanced by a

Aanbod agrarisch vastgoed per sector

echter een beperkt aanbod van pluimveebedrijven (leghennen, vleeskuikens, kalkoenen). Binnen de sector 'overige bedrijven' vallen onder meer zorgboerderijen, hondenkennels, campings en kaasboerderijen.

bedrijven te koop. Bijna een kwart van de aangeboden bedrijven had betrekking op paardenhouderijen en maneges. Tegenover dit ruime aanbod stond

DIFFERENT PROPERTY MARKET DYNAMICS IN EACH SECTOR The agricultural property market dynamics depends on the industry involved. For instance, at year-end 2012 supply in the dairy sector was almost the same as that towards the end of 2013. Van vier agrarische sectoren is in beeld gebracht hoe Indeed, number of registrations was dynamischthe de markt van agrarisch vastgoed in 2013 high, and sales was. Elke sector laattransactions weer een uniek(45) beeldwere zien. Als we de melkveehouderijsector onder de loep nemen, quite substantial. One interesting detail

is the fact that the number of dairy farms sold within one year is almost the same as the number offered for more than a year. This confirms we are dealing with a dynamic market. In the horticultural het aantal verkopen met 45 vrij fors. Opvallend is dat sector, however, market dat wasbinnen not quite as het aantal melkveehouderijen een jaar dynamic. verkocht is ongeveer gelijk is aan het aantal dat

Dynamiek markt per sector verschillend

zien we dat het aanbod eind 2012 nagenoeg gelijk is aan het aanbod eind 2013. Het aantal aanmeldingen afgelopen jaar was groot, maar daarentegen was ook

meer dan een jaar te koop staat. Al met al mag je spreken van een dynamische markt. Een voorbeeld van een minder dynamische markt is de tuinbouwsector.

SUPPLY BY SECTOR SUPPLY TRENDS ILLUSTRATE PROPERTY DYNAMICS

RY ULT PO

New supply 2013

DAIRY FARMS

79

Sold

6

22

30

26 163

30

89 Old 21 Supply at year-end 2012

705

79

New supply HORTICULTURAL FARMING Withdrawn 2013 3 (excl. glasshouse farming) 15

23 Sold 3


New

TOTAL

41

49 Old

141

Y IR A D

104

10

OT H E RC OM PA N IE S

91


91

41

S RM FA

Withdrawn

New

Y EM AD AC

SHOUSE FARMING ON GLAS LY


HO RSE FA RM S/ HO RS E

G IN D RI

HO FA RTI RM CU IN LT (ex G UR cl A far . gla L mi ng ssho ) us e

E BL NG RA MI A R FA

CALVES VEAL


New supply 2013

ARABLE FARMING

30

7

Withdrawn

Sold

2

11


New 30

21 Old

PIGFARMS 62 | AGRICULTURAL & RURAL | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

Corrections are made at year-end, which is why numbers do not fully correspond.

5

3


MORE EXPENSIVE MILK QUOTAS, THE END IS NEAR Prices paid for milk quotas – the right to produce a certain amount of milk – hit rock bottom in March 2013 (€ 7.40 for each kilogram of fat). Poor demand was the main reason, which probably followed from

the approaching end of the milk quotas on 1 April 2015. As of March, however, prices went up again due to higher demand and tighter supply levels.

De prijs van melkquotum - het recht om een bepaalde hoeveelheid melk te produceren - bereikte in maart 2013 een dieptepunt (€7,40 per kg vet). Dit kwam vooral door achterblijvende vraag, die mogelijk

verband hield met het naderende einde van het melkquotum per 1 april 2015. Vanaf maart was er echter weer sprake van een prijsstijging door meer vraag en een krapper aanbod.

Melkquotum duurder, einde nadert

MODEST RECOVERY IN CONVERTED FARMHOUSES Not only the housing market seemed to pick up, the converted farmhouse market too clearly did better last year, despite high availability levels and few buyers showing up. Characteristic farmhouses at convenient did well Niet alleen de locations woningmarkt lijkt zichnevertheless. te herstellen, ook de markt van woonboerderijen was vorig Theoptotal number of transactions wentjaar up een verbetering zichtbaar, ware het niet dat de markt from just over 460 in the first six months werd geconfronteerd met veel aanbod en maar weinig to almost 630 in thewoonboerderijen second half of kopers. Karakteristieke met2013. een

Also, since mid-2012 less time is required to sell a farmhouse. But prices continued to drop. While prior to the financial crisis an average farmhouse was sold at more than a half million euro, in 2013 the average price amounted to nomedio helft van 2013. Ook de paid verkooptijd neemt sinds 2012 De prijzen blijven echter dalen. Werd een moreaf.than € 380,000. The most expensive gemiddelde woonboerderij voor het uitbreken van de converted farmhouses are usually to be kredietcrisis voor meer dan een half miljoen euro found ininRandstad. verkocht, 2013 lag de gerealiseerd prijs op nog

Licht herstel te zien bij woonboerderijen

gunstige ligging deden het nog redelijk goed. Het totaal aantal transacties steeg van iets meer dan 460 in het eerste halfjaar naar bijna 630 in de tweede

PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEAR Average transaction price by province in € x1,000

266 322

2012

424

527

MILK QUOTA PRICE UP AGAIN

811

2013

362

511

geen 380.000 euro. In de Randstad zijn woonboerderijen doorgaans het duurst.

234

382 283

414

319

Price per kilogram of milk fat

377

481 473

287

408

603

50

389

371

504

40

< € 300,000 €12.10

30

€7.40 20

€ 300,000 - € 350,000 € 350,000 - € 400,000 € 400,000 - € 450,000

10

423 352 296

€ 450,000 - € 500,000 > € 500,000

0 ‘06

‘07

‘08

‘09

‘10

‘11

‘12


‘13


REGIONALLY DIFFERENT PRICES FOR GRASSLANDS In general, the Dutch land market did well in 2013. The selling prices of grasslands were steady or even slightly higher. One of the main reasons of rising demand for grasslands are the crystalclear quotas and regulations that will

become effective in 2015. Medium-size and large-scale dairy farms required most grasslands, although regional differences are vast. East of the country, prices paid for grasslands are the lowest, and highest in the IJsselmeer Polders.

Regionale verschillen in prijs grasland

Over het algemeen verliep de grondmarkt in Nederland goed in 2013. Verkoopprijzen van grasland waren stabiel tot licht stijgend. Een belangrijke oorzaak van de toenemende vraag naar grasland is de duidelijkheid die er nu is over de quotering en

regelgeving vanaf 2015. Met name vanuit de middelgrote en grote melkveebedrijven was er vraag naar grasland. Wel zijn de regionale verschillen groot. In het oosten liggen de prijzen voor grasland het laagst, in de IJsselmeerpolders het hoogst.

40,000 45,000

Demand for farmland mainly involves larger plots. Smaller, not very marketable lots are more difficult to sell, which is why they exchange owners at relatively low prices. Last year arable and dairy farmers required more farmland, which clearly

indicated increased scale in land-based agriculture. As a result, prices remained steady or in fact they went up. For farmland too, the highest prices per hectare were paid in the IJsselmeer Polders.

Prijsniveaus akkerbouwland iets hoger

De vraag naar bouwland bestaat voornamelijk uit grotere kavels. Kleinere, minder courante percelen zijn moeilijker verkoopbaar, waardoor deze voor relatief lage prijzen van de hand gaan. Het afgelopen jaar kwam veel vraag naar bouwland vanuit de

akkerbouw en de melkveehouderij. Er is duidelijk sprake van schaalvergroting bij de grondgebonden landbouw. Dit leidt ertoe dat de prijzen stabiel blijven of zelfs stijgen. Ook bij bouwland worden de hoogste prijzen per hectare in de IJsselmeerpolders gerealiseerd.

PRICE RANGE OF ARABLE TERRITORIES

PRICE RANGE OF GRASSLANDS 35,000 40,000

PRICE LEVELS SLIGHTLY UP IN FARMLAND

45,000 50,000

50,000 55,000

55,000 60,000

Noordelijk weidegebied

Hollands/ Utrechts weidegebied

Bouwhoek en Hogeland

Zuidelijk veehouderijgebied

Veenkoloniën en Oldambt

Oostelijk veehouderijgebied

Centraal veehouderijgebied

ZuidwestBrabant

Waterland en Droogmakerijen

Rivierengebied

ZuidLimburg

60,000 65,000

65,000 70,000

70,000 75,000

IJsselmeerpolders

35,000 40,000

40,000 45,000


45,000 50,000

50,000 55,000

55,000 60,000

60,000 65,000







Westelijk Holland


ZuidLimburg

Zuidwestelijk akkergebied

ZuidwestBrabant


65,000 70,000

70,000 75,000 IJsselmeerpolders


Rivierengebied

Westelijk Holland





IJsselmeerpolders

IJsselmeerpolders


Westelijk Holland






Westelijk Holland


Rivierengebied

Oostelijk Centraal veehouderijveehouderij- gebied gebied

Rivierengebied



ZuidwestBrabant


Zuid-Limburg


ZuidwestBrabant

Source: land registry Processed by: NVM


Zuid-Limburg

Source: land registry Processed by: NVM


OUTLOOK In 2014, the Dutch property market will face serious challenges as several factors will make sure the extent to which recovery presents itself is different in each submarket. According to expectations, economy will show some modest growth (0.5%) for the very first time since 2011. Inflation will continue to fall to 1.5% and spending power will rise by an average of 1%. At the same time, unemployment rates will climb. So far, we do not know how manufacturers and consumers will continue to have faith in 2014. But we do know this: banks will have a crucial role because reluctant financiers means less recovery in the end. For 2014, NVM expects the housing market to see some modest growth. On annual basis, the number of transactions will go up by approximately 5% and prices will stabilise. The decline in supply levels that presented itself in 2013 will persevere. The housing market, which started to pick up in the second half of 2013, will continue to progress. The extent of recovery, however, will be different in each region. The housing market will benefit from improved affordability due to low interest rates and lower house prices. But then again, a number of measures will interfere with the financeabilty of homes even more. According to Nibud’s adapted standards (since 1 January 2014) consumers may borrow less money and the National Mortgage Guarantee scheme will be limited as of 1 July 2014, back to j 265,000. For specific groups, e.g. independent professionals, customised mortgage funding is required.

property. In 2014 the investment market will make a lively sight, and alternative financial structures could play a bigger role. In the agricultural market, long-term trends such as declining numbers of companies and increase in scale will continue undiminished. Dairy farms in particular will grow this year, both in terms of plot size but also where the number of stables is concerned. Prices charged for agricultural land are expected to remain steady or slightly go up in 2014. In addition, the market for converted farmhouses will slightly pick up. In the meantime, vacancy and landscape cluttering will threaten in agricultural areas. Therefore, more focus on the conversion of released agricultural property is required.


OUTLOOK

The commercial property market is not expected to see substan tial recovery, if any at all. For now, the anticipated economic growth is insufficient for putting a stop to the rising office vacancy rates and declining demand for office space. Hence, rents will remain seriously under pressure with a rising divide between first-class locations and other offices. The retail property availability levels will continue to rise in 2014, particularly on the inner city’s shopping streets leading to the main shopping area, places outside Randstad and also in small towns. Consumers will remain reluctant to buy items at the stores, while consumption levels on the internet will continue to rise. Rents will drop, the more so in small and mid-size cities. Rents paid for A1 location stores are expected to remain steady. The prospects for the industrial property market, compared to those for the office and retail market, are slightly more promising due to rising business confidence. Nevertheless, the purchase prices will still be under pressure because of the limited financeability of


NVM’S PROFILE NVM is the largest association of real estate brokers and real estate experts in the Netherlands, actively involved in all market segments. NVM’s ambition is to purposefully support members and effectively represent their interests towards the authorities and political circles. NVM has approximately 3900 affiliated real estate agents. NVM consists of three expert sections: Housing, Business and Agricultural & Rural Property. They are familiar with all the changes presenting themselves in their fields. They are responsible for observing developments and trends, and also for providing professional support in the event of market-specific issues. In addition, NVM is home to departments specialising in inter alia legal assistance, communications & marketing as well as advocacy.

COLOPHON Design: Proof Reputation, Amsterdam

Composed by: Rudolf Bak Stéphanie Brans Frank Harleman Matthijs Hofman Bart Knijff Guido Raven

Infographics: Els Engel and Saro Van Cleynenbreugel, Amsterdam

Production: Liesbeth Kramer Source: Unless stated otherwise, all figures are based on NVM data. The housing market figures 2013 are preliminary figures.

Address: NVM Fakkelstede 1 3431 HZ Nieuwegein (the Netherlands) [email protected] www.nvm.nl +31 30-6085185

The Dutch Association of Real Estate Brokers and Real Estate Experts NVM (hereafter referred to as NVM) expressly reserves all rights to this document. Nothing in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a data file or disclosed, in any form or manner, electronically, mechanically, through photocopying, recordings, or otherwise, without NVM’s prior written consent. Third parties shall not use or disclose any of this information without NVM’s prior written consent. Making alterations to the outer appearance of this document is expressly prohibited. Despite NVM’s unrelenting care and dedication in preparing this document and the information included, NVM does not guarantee the completeness, correctness or continuous topicality of data. NVM, in the event of evidenced misuse, shall invoke its rights with the statutorily competent Dutch court.



THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

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