Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ)

Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ)

Counting Ramadan’s blessings

Secara YTD, harga saham SCMA relatif berkinerja lebih buruk dibandingkan dengan perusahaan konsumen lainnya karena kami menduga investor menunggu hasil laporan keuangan- pasca akuisisi Sinemart.

Media Company Report June 14, 2017

Trading Buy

(Maintain) Target Price (12M, IDR)

3,290

Share Price (6/14/17, IDR)

2,790 17.9%

Expected Return

Consensus OP (17F, IDRtr)

2.4

Industry P/E (17F, x)

18.9

Benchmark P/E (17F, x)

16.3

Market Cap (IDRbn) Shares Outstanding (mn)

40,794.3 14,621.6

Free Float (mn)

13.6

Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 52-Week Low (IDR)

1.1 2,130

52-Week High (IDR)

3,360

(%)

1M

6M

12M

Absolute Relative

-2.4 -4.3

9.8 -0.4

-12.3 -32.4

Menurut kami, pangsa pemirsa SCTV yang menurun disebabkan oleh sinetron baru yang berjudul "Boy" (ditayangkan pada April 2017), yang pangsa pemirsanya lebih rendah dari sinetron yang ada di SCTV, seperti "Anak Langit" dan "Berkah Cinta". Namun demikian, SCMA tetap menayangkan sinetron “Boy” karena telah mendapat komitmen pendapatan dalam bentuk product placement (teknik iklan dengan menunjukkan produk/merek nyata yang digunakan dalam sinetron) dan Whisper Media. Menurut SCMA, pendapatan yang dihasilkan dari product placement dan Whisper Media lebih dari cukup menutupi rendahnya rating. Dengan demikian, kami yakin marjin kotor SCMA akan stabil pada kuartal mendatang.

Margin improvement still likely in 2Q17 Terlepas dari penurunan pangsa pemirsa baru-baru ini, kami memperkirakan marjin laba kotor SCMA akan membaik pada 2Q17 karena: 1)tambahan pendapatan dari program sahur selama Ramadan, 2) efek lagging dari naiknya pangsa pemirsa SCTV pada akhir 1Q17, dan 3) Biaya pemrograman yang tidak naik signifikan karena tidak adanya Torabika-Soccer. SCMA masih top pick sektor media kami. Target price kami IDR3,290, dan kami mempertahankan Trading Buy rating.

6/17

5/17

4/17

3/17

2/17

SCMA

1/17

12/16

9/16

10/16

8/16

11/16

JCI

(D-1yr=100) 130 120 110 100 90 80 70

7/16

Kami percaya bahwa penurunan primetime audience share SCTV adalah main drag dari keseluruhan penurunan all time audience share SCMA. Pada bulan Mei, prime time audience share SCMA turun sebesar 3.6%MoM menjadi 17.8%. Program non-prime-timenya, di sisi lain, hanya mengalami sedikit penurunan (-20bps MoM).

5,737.0

Institutional Ownership (%)

6/16

Meskipun perusahaan memperkirakan revenue pasca-akuisisi yang optimis, pangsa pemirsa prime-time dari saluran SCTV telah menyebabkan investor ragu. Namun, kami tetap optimis terhadap result 2Q17, terutama mengingat adanya Ramadan di kuartal tersebut.

PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Trade Christine Natasya +62-21-515-1140 (ext 233) [email protected]

FY (Dec.)

12/13

12/14

12/15

12/16

12/17F

12/18F

Revenue (IDRbn)

3,694.7

4,075.2

4,238.0

4,524.1

5,129.2

5,642.1

Gross Profit (IDRbn)

2,312.9

2,590.8

2,711.8

2,741.7

3,239.6

3,563.5

Operating Profit (IDRbn)

1,758.8

1,928.0

2,014.5

2,003.3

2,402.5

2,642.7

Net profit (IDRbn)

1,285.9

1,457.7

1,521.6

1,511.1

1,830.8

2,016.9

87.9 186.4

99.7 236.3

104.1 215.2

103.3 234.3

125.2 287.5

137.9 338.0

P/E (x) P/B (x)

31.7 15.0

28.0 11.8

26.8 13.0

27.0 11.9

22.3 9.7

20.2 8.3

ROE (%) ROA (%)

48.6 32.9

47.2 33.2

46.1 32.7

46.0 32.2

48.0 34.9

44.1 33.0

EPS (IDR) BPS (IDR)

Note: NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates

June 14, 2017

Surya Citra Media

Secara YTD, harga saham SCMA relatif berkinerja lebih buruk dibandingkan dengan perusahaan konsumen lainnya karena kami menduga investor menunggu hasil laporan keuangan- pasca akuisisi Sinemart. Meskipun perusahaan memperkirakan revenue pasca-akuisisi yang optimis, pangsa pemirsa prime-time dari saluran SCTV telah menyebabkan investor ragu. Namun, kami tetap optimis terhadap result 2Q17, terutama mengingat adanya Ramadan di kuartal tersebut.

Figure 1. YTD share performances 30% 25% 20%

15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% KLBF IJ Equity

GGRM IJ Equity

HMSP IJ Equity

UNVR IJ Equity

ICBP IJ Equity

INDF IJ Equity

MNCN IJ Equity

SCMA IJ Equity

AISA IJ Equity

JCI Index

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Drop in audience share not too concerning Kami percaya bahwa penurunan primetime audience share SCTV adalah main drag dari keseluruhan penurunan all time audience share SCMA. Pada bulan Mei, prime time audience share SCMA turun sebesar 3.6%MoM menjadi 17.8%. Program non-prime-time-nya, di sisi lain, hanya mengalami sedikit penurunan (-20bps MoM). Menurut kami, pangsa pemirsa SCTV yang menurun disebabkan oleh sinetron baru yang berjudul "Boy" (ditayangkan pada April 2017), yang pangsa pemirsanya lebih rendah dari sinetron yang ada di SCTV, seperti "Anak Langit" dan "Berkah Cinta". Namun demikian, SCMA tetap menayangkan sinetron “Boy” karena telah mendapat komitmen pendapatan dalam bentuk product placement (teknik iklan dengan menunjukkan produk/merek nyata yang digunakan dalam sinetron) dan Whisper Media. Menurut SCMA, pendapatan yang dihasilkan dari product placement dan Whisper Media lebih dari cukup menutupi rendahnya rating. Dengan demikian, kami yakin marjin kotor SCMA akan stabil pada kuartal mendatang.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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June 14, 2017

Surya Citra Media

Figure 2. All-time audience shares %

LOKAL TV

TVRI1

Figure 3. SCMA’s all-time audience share

METRO

VIVA

Trans

MNCN

%

SCMA

23.1

23.1

14.0

13.4

35.5

32.6

20.2

18.8

18.3

14.3

14.6

14.6

33.2

33.3

17.4

17

80

16

16

15

60

14

50

13

35.5

12.4

12

30

12.1

11 10

20 10

18.1

18

90

40

IVM

19

100

70

SCTV

24.0

27.3

29.1

29.8

28.1

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

9

0

Source: Nielsen, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research


Figure 4. SCMA’s all-time audience share vs. revenue

Figure 5. RCTI vs SCTV: Prime-time audience share

(IDRbn)

SCMA all time audience share (R)

SCMA's revenue (L)

(%)

1,300

30

1,250

29

% 35

SCTV

RCTI

30

±3-month lagging effect

25

1,200

28

1,150

27

20

1,100

26

15

1,050

25

1,000

24

950

23

900 Jan-15

22

23.4

17.8

10

5

0 Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Source: Nielsen, Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research



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June 14, 2017

Surya Citra Media

Figure 6. Example of advertisement through Whisper Media

Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Margin improvement still likely in 2Q17 Terlepas dari penurunan pangsa pemirsa baru-baru ini, kami memperkirakan marjin laba kotor SCMA akan membaik pada 2Q17 karena: 1)tambahan pendapatan dari program sahur selama Ramadan, 2) efek lagging dari naiknya pangsa pemirsa SCTV pada akhir 1Q17, dan 3) Biaya pemrograman yang tidak naik signifikan karena tidak adanya Torabika-Soccer. SCMA masih top pick sektor media kami. Target price kami IDR3,290, dan kami mempertahankan Trading Buy rating.


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June 14, 2017

Surya Citra Media

Figure 7. SCTV’s quarterly GPM

Figure 8. IVM’s quarterly GPM 90%

80%

Ramadhan

Ramadhan

70%

D'Academy Asia and Ramadhan D'Academy Asia and Ramadhan

80%

Ramadhan

Torabika cost 70%

60% 52%

50%

53%

60%

50% 50%

40% 40%

30%

30%

20%

20%

10%

10%

0%

0%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research


Figure 9. SCMA’s blended quarterly GPM

Figure 10. GPM projection

70%

4Q16

1Q17

Gross margin

65%

65%

3Q16

64% 59.4%

60%

63%

55.3% 55%

62%

50%

61%

45%

60%

40%

59% 58%

35%

2014

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

2015

2016

2017 F

2018 F


Table 1. Current sinetron schedule (during Sahur)

()

Time

(RCTI) Sinetron title

(MNCTV) Sinetron title

(ANTV) Sinetron title

(SCTV) Sinetron title

04.15 04.30

Dunia Terbalik Ngaji pagi + Adzan subuh

04.00 04.30

Demi Masa Lintas Pagi

02.30 05.00

Sahurnya Pesbukers Topik Pagi

03.00 04.00

04.45

Dunia Terbalik

05.00

Cartoon

05.15

Lensa Olahraga

04.30

Mutiara Hati Quraish Shihab

06.30 07.00

Seputar Indonesia Pagi Go Spot

06.00 07.00

Cartoon Cartoon

05.30 06.00

Cartoon Cartoon

04.45 05.15

3 Semprul Mengejar Surga 5 Liputan 6 Pagi

08.00

Cartoon

06.30 07.00

Sinema pagi SCTV musik: Inbox

09.00

Halo Selebriti

Para Pencari Tuhan jilid 11 3 Semprul Mengejar Surga 5

Source: Internet, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research


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Surya Citra Media

Table 2. Current sinetron schedule (during prime-time) Time

(RCTI) Sinetron title

16.30

Awas Banyak Copet

()

(MNCTV) Sinetron title

(ANTV) Sinetron title

(SCTV) Sinetron title

16.30

Pesbukers Ramadhan

17.00 17.40

Tuhan Beri Kami Cinta Mengetuk Pintu Hati

Kultum Bersama Syekh Ali Jaber 17.30 Tukang Ojek Pengkolan 18.00

Rangkaian Berbuka 19.30 Buka Puasa bareng Upin &Ipin 20.15

Lonceng Cinta Mohabbatein

18.00 18.30

Tuhan Beri Kami Cinta Anak Langit

19.45

Dunia Terbalik 19.00

Mia Ikan Mas 21.00

Nadin

20.30

Boy

22.00

Hati Yang Memilih 20.00

Sambalado 22.15

Jodoh Pengantar Jenazah

22.00

Berkah Cinta

17.30 18.00

Source: Internet, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 11. Prime-time audience share as of April 2017 % 35

SCTV MNCTV GTV

RCTI ANTV METRO

IVM TRANS7

TRANS TVONE

Figure 12. All-time audience share as of April 2017 % 25

30

SCTV

20

RCTI 25

IVM TRANS

15 20

MNCTV ANTV

15

10

TRANS7

TVONE

10

GTV

5

METRO

5

TVRI1 0

0

Source: Nielsen, company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Source: Nielsen, company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 13. SCMA’s forward P/E band (x)

40

+2 Std Dev 35

+1 Std Dev 30

Avg PER 25 -1 Std Dev

20 -2 Std Dev

15 Jun-12

Jun-13

Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research


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June 14, 2017

Surya Citra Media

Profit & Loss

Balance sheet

Year end Dec 31 (IDRbn)

2015 2016 2017F 2018F

Revenue Broadcasting expenses

4,238 (1,526)

4,524 (1,782)

5,129 (1,890)

5,642 (2,079)

Gross Profit Opex Operating Profit Other income/(expenses) Profit before income tax

2,712

2,742

3,240

3,564

(711)

(751)

(851)

(936)

2,015

2,003

2,402

2,643

14

12

14

15

2,038

2,024

2,448

Income tax expenses

(513)

(510)

-

Minority interest Net profit EBITDA

Year end Dec 31 (IDRbn)

2015 2016F

2017F 2018F

Assets Cash and equivalents

686

455

1,121

1,578

2,696

Receivables Inventories Others Total current assets Fixed assets - net

1,412 533 213 2,843 962

1,534 689 275 2,952 967

1,582 648 268 3,619 1,096

1,740 712 295 4,325 1,240

(614)

(677)

Long term investments

-

-

-

1,522

1,511

1,831

2,017

2,135

2,133

2,551

2,806

24

26

26

26

736 1,722 4,566

777 1,868 4,821

839 2,060 5,679

874 2,238 6,563

Short-term bank loans and current maturities

150

207

219

241 379

Others Total non-current assets Total assets Liabilities and equity

Growth & margins

2015

2016F 2017F 2018F

Net Revenue

4.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

Trade payables

260

385

345

EBITDA

5.2%

8.8%

9.8%

10.0%

Others current liabilities

451

398

430

471

Net profit

4.4%

7.1%

12.4%

10.2%

Total current liabilities

860

990

994

1,092

Long term debt

207

0

0

1

Gross margin

64.0%

63.3%

63.2%

63.2%

Others

85

124

143

157

Operating margin

47.5%

47.0%

46.9%

46.9%

292

125

143

158

EBITDA margin

50.4%

49.8%

49.7%

49.7%

Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities

1,152

1,115

1,138

1,249

Profitability (%)

Minority interests Shareholders' equity

Cash Flow Year end Dec 31 (IDRbn) CF from operation

279

338

372

3,427

4,203

4,942

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Net profit Depreciation/amortization

1,522 12

1,511 117

1,831 74

2,017 80

Ratio analysis

Change in working capitals

(252)

(170)

(40)

(197)

Current ratio

Others

45

(97)

32

22

1,327

1,361

1,896

1,922

Net capex Others

(199) 9

(135) (29)

(218) (48)

(225) (33)

CF from investments

(190)

(263)

(266)

(258)

(95)

(149)

12

22

0

-

-

(1,214) (1,058)

(1,282)

CF from operation

267 3,146

CF from Investments

Year end Dec 31 Quick ratio Debt to equity Net debt to equity

2015 2016F 3.3

3.0

2017F 2018F 3.6

4.0

2.7

2.3

3.0

3.3

0.05

0.06

0.05

0.05

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

CF from financing activity Increase/(decrease) in debt Increase/(decrease) in equity Dividend payments Others CF from financing activity Net changes in cash

(4) (1,828) 225

43

81

52

(1,701)

(1,319)

(964)

(1,208)

(565)

(221)

666

456

2

(10)

-

-

686

455

1,121

1,578

Non cash adjustment Ending balance Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research


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June 14, 2017

Surya Citra Media

APPENDIX 1 Important Disclosures & Disclaimers Disclosures As of the publication date, PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding. Stock Ratings

Industry Ratings

Buy

Relative performance of 20% or greater

Overweight

Fundamentals are favorable or improving

Trading Buy

Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility

Neutral

Fundamentals are steady without any material changes

Hold

Relative performance of -10% and 10%

Underweight

Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening

Sell

Relative performance of -10%

* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions. Analyst Certification Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein. Disclaimers This report is published by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Indonesian language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Indonesian language, the original Indonesian language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof. Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.


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Tel: 86-10-6567-9699

Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 (ext. 3300)

Shanghai Representative Office

Ho Chi Minh Representative Office

38T31, 38F, Shanghai World Financial Center 100 Century Avenue, Pudong New Area Shanghai 200120 China

7F, Saigon Royal Building 91 Pasteur St. District 1, Ben Nghe Ward, Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam

Tel: 86-21-5013-6392

Tel: 84-8-3910-7715


Tel: 44-20-7982-8000

9

Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ)

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