Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial

Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial

Friday, April 27, 2012 Ringkasan Utama •

Wall Street menguat pada sesi kemarin setelah laporan earning dari beberapa perusahaan penting di AS menopang sentimen di market, yang telah terlebih dahulu terangkat oleh data pending home sales dari AS yang ternyata lebih baik daripada perkiraan market. Dow +0,87%, S&P +0,67% dan Nasdaq +0,69%.

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Eurozone: Walaupun risk appetite telah terlihat sedikit membaik, sentimen di market akhirnya kembali menurun setelah situasi di Eropa kembali memburuk dengan diturunkannya credit rating Spanyol sebanyak dua peringkat oleh S&P (dari A ke BBB-). Dalam keterangannya, S&P menyatakan bahwa prospek APBN Spanyol masih terlihat negatif di saat ini. Perlu dicatat bahwa hari ini pemerintah Itali akan menjual obligasinya, dan respons market akan sangat penting untuk sentimen terhadap Euro di jangka waktu dekat ini. Sementara itu, dari Belanda, pernyataan Menteri Keuangan Belanda tentang persetujuan yang akhirnya tercapai mengenai program konsolidasi APBNnya merupakan kejutan yang positif, apalagi kalau kita perhatikan kenyataan bahwa koalisi di parlemen Belanda telah runtuh di akhir minggu lalu.

OCBC NISP Treasury Advisory Jakarta 021-25547288 / 252 / 255

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Bandung 022-7159888 Surabaya 031-5358385 / 87 Medan 061-4518328 061-4518330 061-4552356

OCBC Treasury Research & Strategy OCBC Bank, Singapore Gundy Cahyadi +65 6530-5949 [email protected]

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AS: Pending home sales menguat 4,1% di bulan Maret dan mencapai level tertingginya di 2 tahun terakhir di 101,40, lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi di market. Di saat yang bersamaan, data initial jobless claims terakhir kembali meningkat ke 388 ribu, lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi market di 375 ribu, dan terus memberikan sinyal bahwa kemajuan di lapangan tenaga kerja di AS masih sangat lambat saat ini.

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Inggris: Salah seorang anggota dewan gubernur BOE menyatakan bahwa tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris yang mengecewakan telah meningkatkan kemungkinan adanya likuiditas tambahan di Inggris.

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Jepang: Tingkat pertumbuhan industri di Jepang terlihat membaik dari 1,6% ke 1,0% yoy untuk bulan Maret, namun lebih rendah dibandingkan perkiraan market di 2,5%, dan terus membuat market semakin percaya bahwa abnk sentral BOJ akan terus menyuntikan likuiditas tambahan ke market saat ini.

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EM Asia: Pemerintah China telah mengumumkan sederet kebijakankebijakan baru untuk membantu sektor UKM di ekonominya. Transaksi berjalan (current account) di Korea Selatan terlihat sedikit memburuk setelah adanya penurunan surplus dari USD 4,0milyar ke USD 3,2milyar untuk bulan Maret. Dari Singapura, tingkat pertumbuhan industri telah turun 3,4% yoy di bulan Maret, dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan 11,8% di bulan Februari lalu.

27 April 2012

Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial

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Indonesia: Presiden Yudhoyono menyatakan bahwa pemerintahnya akan melakukan kebijakan-kebijakan yang ditujukan untuk menahan defisit APBN kurang dari 3% dari total GDP untuk tahun ini.

Analisa Sekilas •

FX: Kami melihat adanya potensi EUR-USD untuk kembali melemah menuju 1,3050 di waktu dekat ini, walaupun memasuki akhir pekan ini, kami cenderung netral. Yang pasti, keputusan S&P untuk menurunkan kredit rating Spanyol sebanyak 2 peringkat merupakan satu hal yang jelas menggambarkan bahwa situasi di Eurozone saat ini masih jauh dari stabil. Untuk USD-JPY sendiri, kami melihat adanya level support yang kuat di 80,00 karena prospek adanya suntikan likuiditas tambahan dari bank sentral BOJ membuat kecenderungan melemahnya JPY akan terus berlanjut di jangka waktu medium. AUD-USD terlihat netral untuk sementara ini, dengan range di 1,0200-1,0500 masih diperkirakan untuk berlanjut di jangka waktu dekat ini, walaupun rapat moneter RBA minggu depan merupakan satu resiko yang sangat besar untuk AUD di jangka waktu dekat ini. GBP-USD masih berpotensi menguat ke sekitaran 1,6200 di jangka waktu dekat ini.

Perkembangan Pasar Finansial Nilai Mata Uang 9187 USD-IDR 12128.68 EUR-IDR 14868.24 GBP-IDR 113.31 JPY-IDR 9531.51 AUD-IDR 9317.44 CAD-IDR 7392.18 SGD-IDR 3011.64 MYR-IDR JIBOR (Rupiah) Tenor Suku Bunga (%)

Bursa Saham dan Komoditas Index Nilai Indeks/Harga Nett (+/-) 13204.62 113.90 DJIA 3050.61 20.98 Nasdaq 9561,83 0,82 Nikkei 225 2981,47 1,69 STI 1579,69 0,34 KLCI 4180,31 16,66 JCI 1148,00 11,00 Baltic Dry Obligasi Pemerintah (Govt Bonds) Tenor Imbal Hasil (%)

O/N

3,78

1Y

4,20

1 Minggu

3,80

2Y

4,70

1 Bulan

3,99

5Y

5,20

3 Bulan

4,23

10Y

5,90

6 Bulan

4,49

15Y

6,36

12 Bulan

4,84

20Y

6,75

For reference only. Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, OCBC Bank

Treasury & Strategy Research

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Treasury & Strategy Research -2.0

-3.0

-4.0

-5.0

29-Mar-11

29-Dec-10

29-Sep-10

29-Jun-10

29-Mar-10

29-Dec-09

29-Sep-09

29-Jun-09

29-Mar-09

29-Dec-08

29-Sep-08

29-Jun-08

29-Mar-08

29-Dec-07

29-Sep-07

29-Jun-07

29-Mar-07

29-Dec-06

29-Sep-06

29-Jun-06

29-Mar-06

29-Mar-12

-1.0

29-Dec-11

0.0

ZAR

1.0

RUB

%

29-Jun-11

2.0

29-Sep-11

FX performance: 1-month change

TRY

Source: OCBC Bank

PLN

HUF

ARS

MXN

CLP

COP

BRL

CNY

TWD

KRW

INR

PHP

THB

IDR

MYR

29-Sep-05 29-Dec-05

3.0

SGD

SEK

NOK

JPY

CHF

CAD

NZD

AUD

3.0

GBP

EUR

27 April 2012 Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial

FX Sentiment Index

3.5

2.5

RISK OFF

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

-0.5 0.0

-1.0

-1.5

RISK ON

-2.0

Source: Bloomberg

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27 April 2012

Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial

Economic Indicators Date 04/26/2012 00:30 04/26/2012 12:30 04/26/2012 16:00 04/26/2012 16:30 04/26/2012 17:00 04/26/2012 17:00 04/26/2012 20:00 04/26/2012 20:00 04/26/2012 20:30 04/26/2012 20:30 04/26/2012 20:30 04/26/2012 21:45 04/26/2012 22:00 04/26/2012 07:00 04/26/2012 07:00 04/26/2012 08:00 04/26/2012 13:00 04/26/2012 13:00 04/26/2012 14:30 04/26/2012 14:30 04/26/2012 14:30 04/27/2012 07:01 04/27/2012 07:15 04/27/2012 07:30 04/27/2012 07:30 04/27/2012 07:30 04/27/2012 07:30 04/27/2012 07:30 04/27/2012 07:30 04/27/2012 07:30 04/27/2012 07:50 04/27/2012 07:50 04/27/2012 13:00 04/27/2012 13:00 04/27/2012 14:00 04/27/2012 16:00 04/27/2012 20:30 04/27/2012 20:30 04/27/2012 20:30 04/27/2012 20:30 04/27/2012 20:30 04/27/2012 21:55 04/27/2012 04/27/2012 07:00 04/27/2012 09:00 04/27/2012 15:30 04/27/2012 16:00 25-27 APR

US JN IT UK EC EC GE GE US US US US US SK SK AU SI SI TH TH TH

Event FOMC Rate Decision All Industry Activity Index (MoM) Business Confidence BBA Loans for House Purchase Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Euro-Zone Economic Confidence Consumer Price Index (MoM) CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Pending Home Sales MoM GDP (QoQ) GDP (YoY) Conference Board Leading Index Industrial Production MoM SA Industrial Production YoY Customs Exports (YoY) Customs Imports (YoY) Customs Trade Balance

Apr-25 FEB APR MAR APR F APR APR P APR P MAR Apr-21 Apr-14 Apr-22 MAR 1Q P 1Q P FEB MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR

Survey 0.25% -0.20% 92.1 34000 -19.8 94.2 0.10% 0.10% -375K 3293K -1.00% 0.90% 3.00% --1.40% -5.80% 0.50% 5.80% $477M

Actual 0.25% -0.10% 89.5 31888 -19.9 92.8 0.10% 0.20% -0.29 388K 3315K -35.8 4.10% 0.90% 2.80% 0.00% 2.70% -3.40% -6.50% 25.60% -$4589M

Prior 0.25% -1.00% 92.1 33103 -19.8 94.4 0.30% 0.40% -0.09 386K 3297K -31.4 -0.50% 0.30% 3.30% 1.10% -1.10% 12.10% 0.90% 8.30% $530M

Revised --91.1 32840 -94.5 --0.07 389K 3312K -0.40% --1.00% -1.60% 11.80% ----

UK JN JN JN JN JN JN JN JN JN JN JN JN GE IT US US US US US US JN SK PH TH TA VN

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Jobless Rate Job-To-Applicant Ratio Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) Natl CPI YoY Tokyo CPI YoY Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY Industrial Production (MoM) Industrial Production YOY% Annualized Housing Starts Housing Starts (YoY) GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) Employment Cost Index GDP QoQ (Annualized) Personal Consumption GDP Price Index Core PCE QoQ U. of Michigan Confidence BOJ Target Rate Current Account in US$ Million Trade Balance Foreign Reserves Leading Index (MoM) Retail Sales YTD (YoY)

APR APR MAR MAR MAR MAR APR APR APR MAR P MAR P MAR MAR MAY FEB 1Q 1Q A 1Q A 1Q A 1Q A APR F Apr-27 MAR FEB Apr-20 MAR APR

-30 -31 -50.7 4.50% 4.50% 0.76 0.76 4.10% 3.40% 0.40% 0.50% -0.10% -0.30% -0.30% -0.50% -0.90% -1.00% 2.30% 1.00% 15.60% 13.90% 0.875M -8.20% -5.9 --0.20% -0.50% -2.50% -2.30% -2.10% -2.10% -75.7 ---- - $3042.4M --$562M -------

-31 51.1 4.50% 0.75 2.30% 0.30% -0.10% -0.30% -1.00% -1.60% 1.50% 0.917M 7.50% 5.9 0.70% 0.40% 3.00% 2.10% 0.90% 1.30% 75.7 0.10% $639.4M -$1010M $178.6B 0.90% 21.80%

---------------0.50% ------$557.3M -----

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury & Strategy Research

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27 April 2012

Ringkasan Harian Pasar Finansial

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Treasury & Strategy Research

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