GERMANY ( BD ) : 512 ( -114QUANTSTAR ) scores last month 1000 WESTERN EUROPE
.
NAVIGATOR
800
600
TECHNICAL
REVISIONS
400 200
October 2004:
0
QUALITY
1. Performance last month 2. Full Track Record (since 1/97) 3. Portfolio trade list 4. New Portfolio 5. Sector/Country Allocation
VALUE
MEXICO ( MX ) : 651 ( -206 ) GROWTH
scores last month . LATIN-AMERICA
TECHNICAL
QUANTSTAR
1000
800 600
REVISIONS
400 200 0
QUALITY
NAVIGATOR
VALUE
MSCI WORLD INDEX Average Global Equity Funds (*)
GROWTH
2% 1%
10%
7%
2% 21%
29%
9%
31/12/1996
31/12/97
31/12/98
31/12/99
3%
5%
31/12/00
11%
31/12/01
31/12/02
more information can be obtained from the funds' depositary bank, Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild Europe, Tel: 00352 / 479 34 63 29 Internet: please visit the "NAV-center" at www.lcf-rothschild.lu or visit www.vector.lu
31/12/03
31/12/04
1. PERFORMANCE REPORT (last month's holdings) INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE LAST MONTH (all returns expressed in Euro) +22.5 +18.9 +16.6 +15.0 +13.9 +13.9 +13.2 +13.1 +12.2 +12.1 +10.6 +10.3 +10.2 +10.1 +10.1 +9.7 +8.6 +8.3 +7.9 +7.7 +7.0 +6.7 +6.0 +6.0 +5.4 +5.3 +5.3 +5.1 +4.9 +4.4 +4.3 +4.3 +4.2 +3.9 +3.9 +3.7 +3.7 +3.4 +3.4 +3.3 +2.6 +2.3 +2.2 +2.1 +1.7 +1.5 +1.4 +1.4 +1.1 +1.0
HYOSUNG SK VALLOUREC COMPAGNIE GL GEOPHYSIQUE STD.BK.GP. EDGARS CONS.STORES DANA PETROLEUM HOUSTON EXP. SALZGITTER ENZON PHARMS. DELHAIZE MANILA ELECTRIC 'B' BURLINGTON RES. STATOIL MAGYAR OLAJ GAZI MOL MAGYAR APACHE EGIS NEWFIELD EXPLORATION SM PRIME HOLDINGS PHILP.LONG DSN.TEL. BEAR STEARNS CAPITAL ONE FINL. TIANJIN DEVELOPMENT HDG. TRIAD HOSPITALS SNAM RETE GAS PROVIDIAN FINL. ALMANIJ KEPPEL LAND US.CELLULAR LG CABLE & MCH. LG HHLD. & HLTHCR. PARTNERRE GRONTMIJ QBE INSURANCE GROUP TEMPO SCAN PACIFIC DONGKUK STEEL MILL EVEREST RE GP. LANDAMERICA FINL.GP. HYUNDAI DEPT.H & S TELENOR CESKY TELECOM SKYWEST BERKLEY W R DBS GROUP ACE E ON POSCO KT & G CHUBB KOREAN REINSURANCE
+0.9 +0.9 +0.9 +0.7 +0.6 +0.3 +0.3 +0.3 +0.1 -0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -1.3 -1.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -3.2 -4.0 -4.0 -4.5 -5.0 -5.1 -5.2 -5.3 -5.4 -5.5 -5.6 -5.6 -5.8 -5.9 -6.5 -7.3 -7.4 -8.3 -10.7 -11.1 -12.6 -13.1
JAPAN TOBACCO AIR FRANCE-KLM MATAV OTP BANK AISIN SEIKI HSBC HDG. THQ CREDIT SUISSE R SPRINT TELUS KELDA GROUP SEVERN TRENT POALIM NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES SEARS CANADA ALLSTATE ADELAIDE BANK OMV AMSTELLAND MDC AMMB HOLDINGS BANK OF IRELAND PROTECTIVE LIFE ABBEY LINAMAR MCL LAND TOHO GAS INSIGHT COMMS.'A' FORTUM CORP. EMBRAER PN HUDSON'S BAY AUSTRIAN AIRLINES RWE YUKOS UNUMPROVIDENT SUMITOMO ELECTRIC IND. FUTABA INDUSTRIAL TAYLOR WOODROW SUMITOMO HEAVY INDS. APRIA HEALTHCARE GROUP GERMANOS WIMPEY (GEORGE) BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS NICHIHA TOKAI RIKA HANIL CEMENT HEALTHSOUTH DAI NIPPON PRINTING D'IETEREN SOMERFIELD RENGO
Last month : NAVIGATOR compared to : MSCI World Index Average Global Equity Funds KBC Equity World Fortis Equity World ING Invest World DEXIA Equity World ABN AMRO Global Equity
Last 12 months :
NAVIGATOR compared to : MSCI World Index Average Global Equity Funds KBC Equity World Fortis Equity World ING Invest World DEXIA Equity World ABN AMRO Global Equity
(in Euro)
+ 0.57 - 0.42 - 0.33 - 0.66 - 0.69 + 0.05 - 0.51 + 0.14
+ 12.5 + 8.1 + 5.0 + 5.5 + 2.3 + 5.4 + 8.0 + 3.9
1. PERFORMANCE REPORT (last month) 3%
RELATIEVE PERFORMANCE NAVIGATOR
Net als in augustus ging Navigator in september licht hoger terwijl de wereldmarkt per saldo terrein verloor (Navigator +0.57%, 5 vergelijkbare fondsen gemiddeld: -0.33%). Ondertussen stapten de aandelenmarkten blijkbaar goed geluimd het vierde kwartaal in – net zoals ze dat 3 jaar geleden deden. Toen kropen de beurzen overeind uit de enorme krater die “9/11” net geslagen had, geïnspireerd door de vorming van een sterk internationaal front tegen het terrorisme, door een verbazingwekkend veerkrachtige economie, en door beloftes over stante pede belastingverlagingen. Helaas hebben die belastingverlagingen 3 jaar later grote gaten geslaan in de Amerikaanse begroting, blijkt de internationale eensgezindheid weggesmolten, heerst chaos in Irak, en staat men in het MiddenOosten verder dan ooit van een oplossing. Het vertrouwen in de matig presterende aandelenmarkten zou gebaat zijn bij een verstandige aanpak van die problemen, en dus is het misschien geen toeval dat de markten vrijdag wereldwijd fors hoger gingen, de eerste beursdag na het eerste verkiezingsdebat in de VS. Navigator boekte sinds 21/9/03, het dieptepunt onmiddellijk volgend op 9/11, een winst van 8,8%, daar waar de fondsen in onderstaande tabel gemiddeld nog zo’n 20% lager noteren. Op de volgende pagina maken we de vergelijking tussen Navigator en de vergelijkbare aandelenfondsen van de 5 grootste Benelux-instellingen. De lijn op de grafiek linksonder stijgt in jaren waarin Navigator het beter deed dan het gemiddelde van die 5, en daalt in jaren waarin Navigator het slechter deed. Dalen heeft die lijn totnogtoe niet gedaan, want Navigator klopte élk van deze fondsen elk jaar. Het verschil met het gemiddelde sinds januari 2001 bedraagt 40%.
WORLD Average Global Equity Funds (*)
2%
10000
1000%
1%
Resultaat since 21/09/2001 (dieptepunt volgend op 9/11) Results since 21/09/2001 (low following 9/11) NAVIGATOR : + 8.8% MSCI World: 9.8% ING Invest World: - 17.6% KBC Equity World: - 18.7% Fortis Equity World: - 19.1% ABN AMRO Global Equity: - 20.4% DEXIA Equity World: - 23.8%
. Just as in August, Navigator made a modest profit in September, while most markets suffered a small loss. The fund outperformed the average with 0,9%. Meanwhile, the equity markets stepped into the last quarter of this year in a good mood, just as they did 3 years ago. Back then, markets jumped out of the crater that “9/11” had left them in, inspired by a strong international front against terrorism, a amazingly strong economy, and by promises for short-term tax cuts. However, 3 years later, fiscal policy has created a huge US deficit, the international coalition against terror has been badly damaged, Irak finds itself in chaos, and solutions for the Middle East never seemed further away. Confidence in the equity markets would be helped by a sensible policy towards these problems, and the avents of the coming months will have a serious impact on markets. Since the low the markets reached immeditaley following 9/11, Navigator has risen 8,8% whereas the international equity funds in the above table are, on average, still about 20% below that level. On the following page, Navigator is compared to 5 competing, representative global equity funds. The line on the graph (below left) will rise in years when Navigator has done better than the average of these 5 funds, and fall in years where Navigator has underperformed. Navigator actually did better than each of these 5 funds, in each of the last couple of years. Since January 2001, Navigator beat the average with 40%.
0.6%
900%
0%
-0.3% -0.4%
800%
-1% 700%
-2% 31/08/2004
07/09/04
14/09/04
21/09/04
28/09/04
600%
600%
2. UPDATE OF FULL TRACK-RECORD (starting January 1997 at 144 euro) Benchmark, comparable funds & cash, in Euro :
(rescaled to 12/96) PRICE 31/12/96 31/12/97 31/12/98 31/12/99 31/12/00 31/12/01 31/12/02 31/12/03 30/09/04 RETURN
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
144 269 445 940 967 833 576 677 720.16
Average Global Equity Funds (*) 144 193 219 320 287 222 142 150 149
Navigator versus Fund Average 0% 39% 103% 194% 238% 275% 306% 353% 383%
+86% +66% +111% +3% -13.9% -30.8% +17.5% +6.4%
+34% +14% +46% -10% -22.5% -36.1% +5.5% -0.2%
+53% +52% +65% +13%
Vector Fund Navigator
+8.6% +5.3% +12.0% +6.6%
MSCI World Index
DEXIA Equity World
KBC Equity World
FORTIS Equity World
ING Invest World
144 192 219 316 290 252 169 183 188
144 192 219 316 233 124 77 82 84
144 186 220 320 297 241 153 162 163
144 191 217 296 294 245 158 171 165
144 203 226 334 293 246 162 172 172
ABN AMRO Global Equity 144 192 213 335 316 253 159 161 162
+33% +14% +45% -8% -13% -33% +9% +2.7%
+33% +14% +45% -26% -47% -38% +6% +2.6%
+29% +18% +45% -7% -19% -37% +6% +0.5%
+32% +14% +36% -1% -17% -36% +8% -3.4%
+41% +11% +48% -12% -16% -34% +6% +0.1%
+33% +11% +57% -6% -20% -37% +1% +0.5%
1000
500%
720.16 400% 383%
average '97-'04: +23.0% +0.4% +22.6% +3% -7% +2% +2% +2% +2% (*)= Gemiddelde van [average of ] DEXIA Equity World, KBC Equity World, Fortis Equity World, ING Invest World, ABN AMRO Global Equity (results 1997-2000 pro forma) 400% 383%
300%
350%
300% 200%
250% 211
NAVIGATOR versus average of : DEXIA Equity World KBC Equity World FORTIS Equity World ING Invest World ABN AMRO Global Equity
200% 188
150% 100%
100%
149
144
50%
(results 1997-2000 are pro forma) NAVIGATOR versus Average Global Equity Funds (*) (RH-scale) NAVIGATOR MSCI WORLD INDEX Average Global Equity Funds (*) CASH @ 5%
0% 1996
1997
1998
1999
unaudited
2000
2001
2002 audited
2003
2004
100 31/12/1996
31/12/97
31/12/98
31/12/99
31/12/00
31/12/01
31/12/02
31/12/03
0%
31/12/04
3. NAVIGATOR -
last month's trades
for information on these individual stocks, see: www.bloomberg.com
sector market SPECIALTY & OTHER FINANCE REAL ESTATE TELECOM SERVICES AEROSPACE & DEFENCE PHARMACEUTICALS RETAIL, GENERAL MEDIA & PHOTOGRAPHY PERSONAL CARE & HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS REAL ESTATE FORESTRY & PAPER RETAIL, GENERAL FOOD & DRUG RETAILERS ELECTRONIC & ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT TELECOM SERVICES
MY NL CZ BR US GR US KO SG JP CN UK JP NW
SELL
BUY
AMMB HOLDINGS AMSTELLAND MDC CESKY TELECOM EMBRAER PN ENZON PHARMS. GERMANOS INSIGHT COMMS.'A' LG HHLD. & HLTHCR. MCL LAND RENGO SEARS CANADA SOMERFIELD SUMITOMO ELECTRIC IND. TELENOR
ANADARKO PETROLEUM BHP BILLITON BRADESCO PN CREE DEVON ENERGY DORAL FINANCIAL FOSCHINI GERDAU PN INDYMAC BANCORP KOITO MANUFACTURING MACQUARIE AIRPORTS MITSUI OSK LINES RENAL CARE GP. WILSON BOWDEN
market sector US UK BR US US US SA BR US JP AU JP US UK
OIL & GAS MINING BANKS INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY HARDWARE OIL & GAS BANKS RETAIL, GENERAL STEEL & OTHER METALS BANKS AUTOMOBILES TRANSPORT TRANSPORT HEALTH CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING MATERIALS
Het aantal transacties is opnieuw terechtgekomen op een normaal niveau van 14 aandelen. Vooral Banken en Grondstoffenproducenten krijgen extra middelen, onze belangen in Vastgoed en Telecom worden wat teruggeschroefd. Geografisch verhogen we onze belangen in de Noord-Amerikaanse markt, ten nadele van Europa. Daarmee is de portefeuille onderwogen in Noord-Amerika en Zuid-Europa, en overwogen in Oost-Europa en Azië (ex-Japan). +++ Asia, Eastern Europe Insurance, Utilities, Construction, Oil . Overweighted
--North America, Southern Europe Technology, Media, Pharmacy Underweighted
14% of our portfolio is replaced. We increase our holdings in Banks and Resources, and reduce our holdings in Real Estate and Telecom. Geographically, we’re increasing our holdings in the US market, and are moving away from Europe. We are underweighted in the US & Southern Europe, and overweighted in Asia and Eastern-Europe.
This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorised. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. The value of investments may fall as well as rise. Any decision to invest should be based on a full reading of the fund prospectus and the most recent financial statements.
4. NAVIGATOR - New Portfolio Company
BUY
BUY BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY BUY
BUY
ABBEY ACE ADELAIDE BANK AIR FRANCE-KLM AISIN SEIKI ALLSTATE ALMANIJ ANADARKO PETROLEUM APACHE APRIA HEALTHCARE GROUP AUSTRIAN AIRLINES BANK OF IRELAND BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS BEAR STEARNS BERKLEY W R BHP BILLITON BRADESCO PN BURLINGTON RES. CAPITAL ONE FINL. CHUBB COMPAGNIE GL GEOPHYSIQUE CREDIT SUISSE R CREE DAI NIPPON PRINTING DANA PETROLEUM DBS GROUP DELHAIZE DEVON ENERGY D'IETEREN DONGKUK STEEL MILL DORAL FINANCIAL E ON EDGARS CONS.STORES EGIS EVEREST RE GP. FORTUM CORP. FOSCHINI FUTABA INDUSTRIAL GERDAU PN GRONTMIJ HANIL CEMENT HEALTHSOUTH HOUSTON EXP. HSBC HDG. HUDSON'S BAY HYOSUNG HYUNDAI DEPT.H & S INDYMAC BANCORP JAPAN TOBACCO KELDA GROUP
Score
Sector Market
market value (mln.E)
average volume (mln E.)
987 918 869 648 943 889 996 970 980 625 835 808 927 616 960 980 981 972 881 928 885 657 900 690 977 791 920 964 754 996 979 935 877 956 927 905 968 891 1000 848 948 820 988 698 846 950 921 947 750 955
CNSBM INSUR BANKS TRNSP AUTMB INSUR BANKS OILGS OILGS HLTHC TRNSP BANKS CNSBM SPFIN INSUR MNING BANKS OILGS SPFIN INSUR OILGS BANKS INFOH MEDIA OILGS BANKS FDRET OILGS SUPSV STLOM BANKS UTILO RTAIL PHARM INSUR UTILO RTAIL AUTMB STLOM CNSBM CNSBM HLTHC OILGS BANKS RTAIL DIVIN RTAIL BANKS TOBAC UTILO
290 9254 490 3491 5857 27100 10702 13588 13264 1094 340 10530 1951 7830 2899 21282 3476 13224 14528 10859 631 31377 1847 8463 419 11364 4826 13936 818 638 3574 41728 1271 308 3390 9518 853 944 2593 121 244 1631 1369 142563 581 273 57 1791 13489 2932
0.4 37.7 0.8 12.3 11.1 103.6 5.3 80.7 68.7 12.5 0.7 20.4 13.6 75.7 12.5 99.4 6.7 66.6 83.4 54.6 2.1 134.3 45.1 19.0 1.5 23.2 14.4 83.4 0.5 3.9 18.2 2.1 11.1 0.5 25.3 17.8 1.9 1.5 7.4 0.3 0.6 7.0 9.3 140.5 1.8 1.2 0.2 10.6 27.2 21.0
IR US AU FR JP US BG US US US OE IR UK US US UK BR US US US FR SW US JP UK SG BG US BG KO US BD SA HN US FN SA JP BR NL KO US US HK CN KO KO US JP UK
Company BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
KEPPEL LAND KOITO MANUFACTURING KOREAN REINSURANCE KT & G LANDAMERICA FINL.GP. LG CABLE & MCH. LINAMAR MACQUARIE AIRPORTS MAGYAR OLAJ GAZI MOL MAGYAR MANILA ELECTRIC 'B' MATAV MITSUI OSK LINES NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES NEWFIELD EXPLORATION NICHIHA OMV OTP BANK PARTNERRE PHILP.LONG DSN.TEL. POALIM POSCO PROTECTIVE LIFE PROVIDIAN FINL. QBE INSURANCE GROUP RENAL CARE GP. RWE SALZGITTER SEVERN TRENT SK SKYWEST SM PRIME HOLDINGS SNAM RETE GAS SPRINT STATOIL STD.BK.GP. SUMITOMO HEAVY INDS. TAYLOR WOODROW TELUS TEMPO SCAN PACIFIC THQ TIANJIN DEVELOPMENT HDG. TOHO GAS TOKAI RIKA TRIAD HOSPITALS UNUMPROVIDENT US.CELLULAR VALLOUREC WILSON BOWDEN WIMPEY (GEORGE) YUKOS
Score 725 967 971 992 983 961 919 967 987 920 740 941 977 969 890 997 989 914 833 998 997 983 963 989 850 974 999 869 993 968 748 890 965 995 974 866 982 950 797 822 930 850 758 886 839 794 918 990 973 917
Sector Market
market value (mln.E)
average volume (mln E.)
RLEST AUTMB INSUR TOBAC INSUR ELTNC AUTMB TRNSP OILGS ELECT TELCM TRNSP TRNSP OILGS CNSBM OILGS BANKS INSUR TELCM BANKS STLOM INSUR SPFIN INSUR HLTHC UTILO STLOM UTILO OILGS TRNSP RLEST UTILO TELCM OILGS BANKS ENGEN CNSBM TELCM PHARM SFTCS DIVIN UTILO AUTMB HLTHC LIFEA TELCM ENGEN CNSBM CNSBM OILGS
644 1115 305 3822 683 400 619 1807 4243 142 3465 5901 2083 2845 447 5151 5051 2416 3450 2796 10933 2222 3639 5518 1766 20622 808 4451 4922 745 939 7450 22299 26058 8559 1462 2286 3331 276 639 208 1522 1135 2132 3778 1917 948 1471 2239 7436
1.2 3.3 1.2 14.8 5.8 1.4 0.8 7.5 7.2 0.5 3.1 32.3 23.6 29.3 0.7 7.0 11.6 11.1 2.0 9.4 28.3 7.6 21.6 19.4 6.3 1.1 0.3 34.5 17.8 5.4 0.9 40.2 78.3 106.9 21.3 9.3 20.0 9.1 0.1 11.6 0.2 0.8 3.5 14.1 20.4 2.4 1.2 4.4 15.7 1.0
SG JP KO KO US KO CN AU HN PH HN JP SG US JP OE HN US PH IS KO US US AU US BD BD UK KO US PH IT US NW SA JP UK CN ID US HK JP JP US US US FR UK UK RS
5. SECTOR ALLOCATION FINANCIALS (banks, insurance…) : 28%
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (internet, hardware, software...) : 1%=>2%
UTILITIES (electricity, water…) : 8%
RESOURCES (oil, gas, mining…) : 11%=>14%
NON-CYCLICAL SERVICES (telecom, food retailers…) : 9%=>6%
BASIC INDUSTRIES (chemicals, steel, construction….) : 11%=>12%
CYCLICAL SERVICES (distribution, retail, media, transport…) : 12%
NON-CYCLICAL CONSUMER GOODS (pharma, food, packaging, tobacco…) : 9%=>8%
GENERAL INDUSTRIALS (aerospace, engineering, electronics…) : 7%=>5% CYCLICAL CONSUMER GOODS (auto, textile, household goods...) : 4%=>5%
5. REGIONAL ALLOCATION Japan : 10%
Australia : 2%=>3% Latin-America : 1%=>2%
US & Canada : 29%=>32% Eastern Europe : 7%=>6%
South-Africa : 2%=>3%
Asia (ex Japan & Australia) : 21%=>18%
UK & Ireland : 9%=>10%
Scandinavia : 3%=>2% Southern Europe (France, Italy, Spain…) : 5%=>4%
Western Europe (Benelux, Germany, Switzerland,...) : 11%=>10%
