PREPAREDNESS OF TODAY AND FUTURE NATIONAL POWER SUPPLY BOBBY ADHITYO RIZALDI, SE Ak., MBA, CFE Member or Parliament Commission VII of the Republic of Indonesia
ECONOMY GROWTH AND NATIONAL POWER SUPPLY In the middle of today’s global crisis threat, World Bank admitts that compared to other developing countries, Indonesia economy growth is relatively stable. Government in APBN 2012 economy growth target is 6,7% (increase from economy growth in 2011 by 6,3%). Target achievement of economy growth will be hard to implemented without infrastructure acceleration development. Bappenas reports the electricity infrastructure issue still be a constraint to investment growth level in Indonesia. PREPREDNESS OF TODAY AND FUTURE NATIONAL POWER SUPPLY
ECONOMY GROWTH AND NATIONAL POWER SUPPLY World Bank through a survey doing business 2012 reduces business (investment) climate in Indonesia from position 126 to 129. The deceasing rank is caused by low electricity infrastructure as one of the factor. The cause from the electricity infrastructure issue is fund availability.
PREPAREDNESS OF TODAY AND FUTURE NATIONAL POWER SUPPLY
126
129
DEMAND GROWTH ON POWER Statement by LPEM UI in 2008 : Economy growth 1% needs input in form of power growth by 1,5 – 2%, or elasticity between 1,5 – 2%. PLN uses average elasticity 1.5 Based on RUPTL 2010-2019, with economy growth assumption averagely 6,1%, Electrification ratio (RE) will increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% in 2019. Indonesia power needs predicted to grow in average by 9,2% per year. In East Indonesia reaches to 10,6% per year, West Indonesia reaches 10,2%, and in Jawa-Bali grows by 8,97%. Power needs projection in 2019 reaches 327 TWh from 133 TWh in year 2010. KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
DEMAND GROWTH ON NATIONAL POWER
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
Realization and Projection of Power Needs 2010 - 2019 (GWh) 400,000
Realization
Projection
350,000
327 TWh
300,000
sia e on d n I Bali a Jaw
250,000 200,000 150,000
252 TWh
133 TWh
100,000
104 TWh 50,000 -
20 TWh 10 TWh
onesia d n I t s e W East Indonesia
54 TWh 28 TWh
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Power needs of Indonesia predicted to grow in average of 9.2% per year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 6 10.6%)
POWER SUPPLY GROWTH Per October 2010, from target 2010 by 67,56% elektrification ration (RE) implemented only 66,28%. Or of number of household per 2010 by 58.070.327 only 38.486.988 households that receives power (target 2010 is 39.231.030 household customers).
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
SUPPLY GROWTH OF POWER
Electrification ratio in average 66% and will increase in 2019 to 91%
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
PROJECTION OF ELECTRIFICATION RATIO 2010-2019
(%) 110,0 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 2010
2011
2012
2013
RE (%) Ind TAHUN
9
RE (%) Ind RE (%) IB RE (%) IT RE (%) JB
2014
2015
RE (%) IB
2016
2017
RE (%) IT
2018
2019
RE (%) JB
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
66 62 48 72
69 64 50 75
71 67 52 78
74 69 54 81
77 72 57 84
79 74 60 87
82 77 62 90
86 79 65 93
88 82 68 96
91 85 72 98
PLAN OF POWER SUPPLY AND INVESTMENT NEEDS To fulfill electricity needs in 2019 will reach to 327 TWh (of 133 TWh in year 2010) required new plant construction up to 55.484 MW until 2019 or in average of 5.500 MW more per year. More than that from 65% among of them needed in Jawa-Bali. Investment required for construction of new generator or transmission line and its distribution up to 2019 predicted USD 97,1 billions or USD 9,7 billions per year. Investment need at electricity sector at this huge certainly can not afford by PLN or government only, private role required for the development of National electricity. KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL 10 INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG SAAT
Additional Plan of Generator Throughout Indonesia 9.000
8.643
Total : 55.484 MW
8.000 7.000
6.248 6.000
5.490
5.596
2016
2017
6.607
6.565
2018
2019
4.985
5.000
4.586 4.156
MW 4.000 3.000
2.608
2.000 1.000 2010
2011
PLTU 11
2012
PLTP
2013
2014
PLTGU
2015
PLTG
PLTD
PLTA
Investment Need of Generator for PLN + IPP, Transmission and Distribution Juta USD 14,000.0 12,000.0
Total Investasi
10,000.0 8,000.0
Pembangkit
6,000.0 4,000.0
Transmisi Distribusi
2,000.0 2010 Column1 Column22010 Pembangkit 5,353.3 Transmisi 1,987.7 Distribusi 781.2 Total Investasi 8,122.2 12
2011 2011 6,605.8 2,045.9 1,087.4 9,739.0
2012
2012 9,230.0 1,577.0 1,014.0 11,821.1
2013
2013 9,687.6 1,509.7 956.0 12,153.3
2014 2014 8,054.9 1,836.1 999.9 10,890.8
2015 2015 6,070.6 2,239.0 1,183.6 9,493.2
2016 2016 6,744.4 1,310.1 1,210.5 9,265.0
2017 2017 7,025.9 971.0 1,330.1 9,326.9
2018 2018 6,301.8 878.0 1,371.7 8,551.5
2019 2019 5,559.5 840.7 1,340.3 7,740.5
Jumlah 70,633.7 15,195.2 11,274.7 97,103.6
SUPPLY PLAN OF POWER AND INVESTMENT NEED Production of power in 2010 reached to more or less 170 th GWh and will increase 10% or 187 th GWH in year 2011, where around 27% from private. This shows besides state enterprise, private also has participated in power supply and will increase in line with power need growth.
The participation of private (IPP) nationally very beneficial, hence power supply to local areas shortly be handled considering limited investment by PLN finally to accelaret the increase of electrification ratio. KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL 13 INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG SAAT
PLAN OF SUPPLY OF POWER AND INVESTMENT NEED To encourage acceleration in power supply needs support from many aspects, either regulation aspect or technical aspect or commercial aspect such as national banking support as well as government guarantee. On the acceleration program of construction of plants 10.000 MW phase 2, especially on the geothermal plants development that reaches to 39% or 3.967MW of the private role (IPP) will get bigger starts from exploration phase to power plants construction.
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL 14 INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG SAAT
Acceleration Project of Plants 10.000 MW Phase 2 Area
Jawa Outside of Jawa Total Portion
PLTA
PLTGU
PLTP
PLTU
PLTG
Total
1,000
1,200
1,970 1,600
204
360
2,007 1,712
100
4,373
1,204
1,560
3,967 3,312
100
10,143
12%
15%
1%
100%
39%
33%
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL 15 INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG SAAT
5,770
Acceleration Project of Plants 10.000 MW Phase 2
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL 16 INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG SAAT
Total electricity production 170 GWh with consumption from PLN and IPP
LEGISLATIVE ROLE IN NATIONAL POWER SUPPLY Subsidy to allocate in form of primary energy and grid system availability. . Demand Side Management which is determination of basic tariff of electricity. Main priority of State Enterprise in dealing with electricity company. In Law No.30 year 2009 on Electricity Section 4 : The implementation of power supply by government and local government is done by state enterprise and local area enterprise. Private enterprise, cooperative, and community self-reliant can be participated in power supply business. National electricity not only to illuminate but stimulates the new center of industry . KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL 18 INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG SAAT
Rp.65,48 T Rp.55,1 T Rp.45,0 T
ELECTRICITY SUBSIDY GROWTH
