REFERENCE Goal of Risk Budgeting. Retrieved on June 25 th 2007 from http://www.cmra.com Hoesada, Jan. Proyeksi Kondisi Dunia dan Indonesia 2007. Retrieved on 2007 from http://www.ksap.org Idroes, N Ferry and Sugiarto. 2006. Manajemen risiko Perbankan. DIY Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu. Jackson, Simon and Roger Flanagan.2002. A Systematic Approach to Managing Budget Risk during Project Appraisal. Jamieson, G. Risk Budget. Retrieved on June 25 th 2007 from http://www.erisk.com Lam, James. 2003. Enterprise Risk Management. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Son. Mochal, Tom. Create a risk contingency budget using Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Retrieved on May 9 th 2006 from http://articles.techrepublic.com.com-5100-10878_11-6069576.html PT. Waskita Karya, 2006. Risalah Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham PT. Waskita Karya (Persero) Tentang Persetujuan Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Perusahaan Tahun 2007. Risk Budgeting and The Art of Good Risk Taking. Retrieved on June 25th 2007 from http://www.watsonwyatt.com Risk Management Division Guidelines for Section 12.1 – Risk Management and Self-Insurance Premiums 2007-09 Budget. Retrieved on July 27th 2007 from http://www.ofm.wa.gov/rmd/budget/default.asp.
49
APPENDIX A Table. Sensitivity analysis cash flow statement 2006
2007 (Best case)
2,560,500,460,793
3,905,514,343,000
1.525
2,957,554,814,755
-2,301,426,464,509 -83,855,786,154 10,329,450,000 4,044,663,822 -60,170,335,723 -93,376,513,973
-3,710,238,626,000 -67,230,000,000 -442,893,379,100 1,590,000,000 -52,000,000,000 -33,154,305,700
0.95
-3,223,147,909,667 -67,230,000,000 -332,823,094,912 1,590,000,000 -65,000,000,000 -19,256,705,069
36,045,474,256
-398,411,967,800
-415,489,799,981
-417,577,232,331
Cash flow from investing activities Gain from: Selling (buying) other investment Fixed assets Fixed assets adding
-30,272,188,620 173,534,700 -2,401,304,789
-20,661,212,542 5,115,000,000 -1,011,818,975
-20,661,212,542 5,115,000,000 -1,011,818,975
-20,661,212,542 5,115,000,000 -1,011,818,975
Net cash flow from (to) investing activities
-32,499,958,709
-16,558,031,517
-16,558,031,517
-16,558,031,517
Cash flow from operating activities Cash received by customers Cash payment to: Supplier and Subordinator Directions and employees Cash received from (to) operating activities Interest revenue Interest payment Tax payment Net cash flow from operating activities
2007 (Moderate case)
0.11 12% 0.6
2007 (Worst case) 1.155
2,448,703,000,000
0.15 0.70
2,409,175,532,000 -67,230,000,000 -316,335,638,290 1,590,000,000 -69,333,333,333 -5,795,728,708
0.99
13%
0.80
Cash flow from funding activities Borrowing (payment) of current liabilities Borrowing (payment) of long term liabilities Increasing (decreasing) special relationship debt Payment of wesel debt Increasing (decreasing) of obligation debt Dividend payment Decreasing (increasing) special relationship account receivable
89,214,654,800
190,000,000,000
12%
184,448,975,248
15%
170,000,000,000
16%
-53,750,000,000 -14,106,185,000
250,000,000,000 -27,403,170,720
0.19
250,000,000,000 -13,944,000,000
0.190
250,000,000,000 -7,800,084,885
0.19
Cash flow from (to) funding activities
21,358,469,800
412,596,829,280
420,504,975,248
412,199,915,115
Increasing (decreasing) of net cash flow
24,903,985,347
-2,373,170,037
-11,542,856,250
-21,935,348,733
Cash, beginning of year
60,790,377,615
85,694,362,962
85,694,362,962
85,694,362,962
Cash, end of the year
85,694,362,962
83,321,192,925
74,151,506,712
63,759,014,229
APPENDIX B
Table. RKAP 2007 budget plan cost curve diagram QUARTER QUARTER Product line I II Product line I 136,765 342,790 Product line II 69,660 229,895 Product line III 58,845 182,370
QUARTER III 680,295 637,985 363,870
QUARTER VI 1,197,675 966,490 638,785
Table. Research estimation curve diagram QUARTER QUARTER I II Product line I 60,203 257,773 Product line II 54,210 162,495 Product line III 46,728 178,372
QUARTER III 617,623 467,460 336,060
QUARTER VI 1,037,985 681,500 565,079
APPENDIX C
Table. 2006 projects comparison from RKAP 2006 and actual 2006 Actual No. Details RKAP 2006 2006 Tenders 1 participated 454 411 2 Tenders won 254 109 3 Tenders won (%) 55.95% 26.52% 4 Non tender 56 59 5 Amount received 310 168
APPENDIX D Table. Income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheet PERHITUNGAN LABA RUGI Pendapatan usaha Beban kontrak Laba kotor Bagian laba (rugi) bersih kerja sama operasi Laba setelah bagian laba (rugi) kerja sama operasi Beban usaha: Beban penjualan Beban umum dan administrasi Laba usaha Pendapatan (beban) bukan usaha Pendapatan bunga Beban pinjaman Laba (rugi) penjualan aktiva tetap Laba (rugi) kurs - bersih Pendapatan/(beban) lain-lain - bersih Bagian laba/(rugi) bersih perusahaan asosiasi Laba sebelum pajak penghasilan Taksiran (beban)/manfaat pajak penghasilan Pajak kini Pajak tangguhan Laba bersih Laba usaha per saham Laba bersih per saham
2004 2.040.237.082.553 (1.840.646.388.096) 1 99.590.694.457 12.112.255.630
2005 2.640.833.032.278 (2.420.472.410.908) 220.360.621.370 12.650.850.852
2006 2.769.041.334.792 (2.535.945.651.506) 233.095.683.286 7.535.533.984
211.702.950.087
233.011.472.222
240.631.217.270
(6.361.282.668) (92.293.289.411) (98.654.572.079) 113.048.378.008
(6.122.510.430) (112.713.976.491) (118.836.486.921) 114.174.985.301
(4.852.952.390) (97.146.989.542) (101.999.941.932) 138.631.275.338
1.580.882.522 (38.385.826.399) 241.746.107 (1.001.509.877) (10.539.527.832) (48.104.235.479)
1.754.656.326 (54.539.918.287) 3.262.740.797 644.371.700 (1.830.783.353) (50.708.932.817)
4 .044.663.822 (60.170.335.723) 151.990.536 (1.244.084.694) (1.139.094.825) (57.915.436.146)
508.809.858
317.581.077
441.424.738
65.452.952.387
63.783.633.561
80.715.839.192
(18.913.484.487) 6.148.487.660 ( 12.764.996.827) 52.687.955.560
(22.007.316.144) 8.507.039.388 (13.500.276.756) 50.283.356.805
(21.325.983.785) (4.534.388.673) (25.860.372.458) 54.855.466.734
1.884.140 878.133
1.427.187 628.542
770.174 304.753
PERHITUNGAN CASH FLOW
2004
2005
2006
1.758.063.806.794
2.267.571.532.574
2.560.500.460.793
(1.638.917.803.456) (74.989.075.877) 570.804.989 (8.243.170.767) (38.385.826.399) (59.777.547.708) (61.678.812.424)
(2.268.316.877.832) (85.043.115.499) 1.754.656.326 (3.222.200.000) (69.586.093.352) (54.552.565.748) (211.394.663.531)
(2.301.426.464.509) (83.855.786.154) 4.044.663.822 10.329.450.000 (60.170.335.723 (93.376.513.973) 36.045.474.256
9.703.449.294 (8.801.457.232) 171.037.360 1.073.029.422
6.170.860.552 (25.937.961.229 (19.767.100.677)
173.534.700 (2.401.304.789) (33.841.000.000) 3.568.811.382 (32.499.958.707)
28.920.038.884 (8.670.322.908)
20.249.715.976
292.040.319.976 (20.978.483.000) (1.256.031.000) (11.400.040.639) (1.573.386.000) 256.832.379.337
102.766.461.716 (14.106.185.000) (1.141.179.000) (11.000.009.900) (1.410.618.000) (53.750.000.000) 21.358.469.816
(40.356.067.026)
2 5.670.615.129
24.903.985.365
Kas dan setara kas, awal tahun
75.475.829.512
35.119.762.486
60.790.377.615
Kas dan setara kas, akhir tahun
35.119.762.486
60.790.377.615
85.694.362.980
Arus kas dari aktivitas operasi Penerimaan kas dari pelanggan Pembayaran kas: Kepada Pemasok Beban Usaha Penghasilan bunga Investasi jangka pendek Pembayaran bunga / provisi bank Pembayaran pajak Kas dari/(digunakan untuk) aktivitas operasi Arus kas dari aktivisas investasi Penjualan aktiva tetap Penambahan aktiva tetap Penjualan/(penambahan) investasi Penerimaan (Pengeluaran) dari/ke perusahaan asosiasi Kas dari/(digunakan untuk) aktivitas investasi Arus kas dari aktivitas pendanaan Penambahan (pembayaran) hutang bank Pembayaran dividen Pembayaran tantiem Pembayaran jasa produksi Pembayaran PKBL Pembayaran obligasi Kas dari/(digunakan untuk) aktivitas pendanaan Kenaikan kas bersih
NERACA 2004-2005-2006 2004
2005
2006
AKTIVA LANCAR Kas dan setara kas Investasi jangka pendek Piutang usaha Piutang retensi Piutang lain-lain Persediaan Tagihan bruto kepada pengguna jasa Pajak dibayar di muka Uang muka dan biaya dibayar di muka Jaminan
35.119.762.486 14.223.906.250 327.706.905.923 65.692.965.228 785.400.812 58.605.114.677 311.156.059.689 99.345.090.402 66.455.719.766 224.294.148
60.790.377.615 17.446.106.250 401.663.010.909 130.656.560.451 540.987.880 103.891.379.939 550.439.860.956 134.338.276.869 75.166.560.014 76.011.798
85.694.362.980 7.116.656.250 388.196.863.638 147.689.255.203 1.878.884.553 128.321.580.084 738.449.407.636 167.556.583.135 63.763.004.741 69.273.998
Jumlah aktiva lancar
979.315.219.381
1.475.009.132.681
1.728.735.872.218
AKTIVA TIDAK LANCAR Aktiva pajak tangguhan Investasi pada perusahaan asosiasi Investasi pada kerja sama operasi Aktiva tetap Aktiva lain-lain
11.274.084.086 6.943.651.982 14.143.022.509 128.716.989.165 5.891.045.230
19.781.123.474 7.261.233.059 23.278.969.544 142.147.080.189 4.693.587.458
15.246.734.801 41.543.657.797 11.284.882.054 135.718.361.306 8.223.954.903
Jumlah aktiva tidak lancar
166.968.792.972
197.161.993.724
212.017.590.861
1.146.284.012.353
1.672.171.126.405
1.940.753.463.079
311.360.656.177 105.696.895.776 100.421.121.171 1.142.368.151 105.050.217.898 3.804.675.682 224.061.450 -
388.868.624.549 397.737.215.752 178.674.788.978 3.590.305.014 122.901.563.931 4.814.472.209 85.800.000 53.750.000.000
469.199.928.369 500.503.677.468 329.092.370.184 4.808.605.893 159.620.502.380 4.672.918.024 10.000.000 -
Jumlah aktiva
KEWAJIBAN DAN EKUITAS KEWAJIBAN JANGKA PENDEK Hutang usaha Hutang bank jangka pendek Hutang bruto kepada pihak ketiga Hutang pajak Uang muka kontrak jangka pendek Beban masih harus dibayar Pendapatan diterima di muka Hutang obligasi, jatuh tempo dalam 1 tahun
Kewajiban lancar lain-lain
12.062.016.991
11.304.593.232
11.950.839.102
639.762.013.296
1.161.727.363.665
1.479.858.841.420
128.621.494.754
1 29.804.179.777
58.659.394.025
98.890.570.000 18.146.782.952
4 5.436.418.000 4 7.864.556.807
45.847.500.000 30.851.634.744
Jumlah kewajiban jangka panjang
245.658.847.706
223.105.154.584
135.358.528.769
Jumlah kewajiban
885.420.861.002
1.384.832.518.249
1.615.217.370.189
60.000.000.000 118.804.443.332
180.000.000.000 -
180.000.000.000 -
29.370.752.459 52.687.955.560
57.055.251.351 50.283.356.805
90.680.626.156 54.855.466.734
260.863.151.351
287.338.608.156
325.536.092.890
1.146.284.012.353
1.672.171.126.405
1.940.753.463.079
Jumlah kewajiban jangka pendek
KEWAJIBAN JANGKA PANJANG Uang muka kontrak jangka panjang Hutang obligasi setelah dikurangi bagian yang akan jatuh tempo dalam satu tahun Estimasi kewajiban manfaat karyawan
EKUITAS Modal saham Selisih penilaian kembali aktiva tetap Saldo laba Ditentukan penggunaannya Belum ditentukan penggunaannya Jumlah ekuitas pemegang saham Jumlah kewajiban dan ekuitas pemegang saham
APPENDIX E Table. Probability of research estimation compared to PT. Waskita Karya’s estimation PTWK Research Product line estimation estimation Probability Product line I 91 79 0.868131868 Office building 12 8 0.666666667 Shopping center 6 6 1 Hotels 11 9 0.818181818 Hospitals 5 5 1 Apartment 16 13 0.8125 Religious facility 15 12 0.8 Industry bulding 26 23 0.884615385 Jabotabek 3 3 1 Surabaya 3 3 1 Medan 4 3 0.75 Denpasar 3 3 1 Bandung 2 2 1 Pekanbaru 2 1 0.5 Other cities 6 5 0.833333333 Foreign 3 3 1 Product line II 77 55 0.714285714 Highway 12 9 0.75 Pantura road 1 1 1 National road 17 12 0.705882353 JORR 1 1 1 Flyover and underpass 8 4 0.5 Roads and bridges 13 12 0.923076923 Airport 7 5 0.714285714 Seaport 8 6 0.75 Foreign 10 5 0.5 Product line III 26 23 0.884615385 Flood control 4 4 1 Bengawan Solo N 1 1 1 Irrigation 8 7 0.875 Coast security 8 6 0.75 Other 5 5 1 Total 194 157 0.809278351
