Mobilitás és Környezet Konferencia

Mobilitás és Környezet Konferencia Magyar Tudományos Akadémia Budapest, 2012. január 23.

Az elektromobilitás kritikus kérdései

Dr. Hanula Barna

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Mobilitás és Környezet konferencia

2012. 01. 23

„Stand der Technik“ – Projektion Treibhausgasemissionen Deutschland 2004-2030* •

In Mt CO2e

*Bei Beibehaltung Kernkraftausstieg **Klimaadjustiert für 2004. Temperaturkorrektur auf Basis Gradtage

Source: McKinsey

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2012. 01. 23

Global GHG abatement cost curve beyond business-as-usual 2030

Source: McKinsey

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2012. 01. 23

Energiesektor: Vermeidungskostenkurve Deutschland 2020*

Source: McKinsey

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2012. 01. 23

Industriesektor: Vermeidungskostenkurve Deutschland 2020

Source: McKinsey

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2012. 01. 23

Gebäudesektor: Vermeidungskostenkurve Deutschland 2020

Source: McKinsey

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2012. 01. 23

Transportsektor: Vermeidungskostenkurve Deutschland 2020

Source: McKinsey

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2012. 01. 23

Capital intensity by abatement measure

Source: McKinsey

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2012. 01. 23

Lock-in into high-carbon infrastructure

Source: McKinsey

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2012. 01. 23

CO2 Limitation Forecast worldwide GHG Emission for Passenger Vehicle by Country

 2020 US fuel economy mirrors Europe and Japan fleet of today  Global issue, global OEMs, global solutions  Europe is leading the battle  CO2 legislation is opening doors for new technologies

Source: Feb. 2009 CSM Automotive Market Foresight, “CO” Reduction Solutions”

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2012. 01. 23

Several players have to be a part in the game...

Source: Siemens

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Begin of standardisation

2012. 01. 23

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2012. 01. 23

THEORIE: ENERGIETRÄGER FÜR 0,5 kWh

 Tafel Schokolade: 85 g

 Benzin: 55 g

 Lithium Ionen: 5.263 g Source: AVL

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2012. 01. 23

PRAXIS: UM 0,5 kWh ENERGIE ZU ERZEUGEN BENÖTIGT MAN…

 Tafel Schokolade: 85 g

 Benzin: 165 g

 Lithium Ionen: 14.620 g (@40% SOC range) Source: AVL

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2012. 01. 23

Az áram előállítási költsége ma:

2,5-6 ct/kWh Mennyibe kerül a tárolása egy lítium-ion akkumulátorban?

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2012. 01. 23

Mennyibe kerül a tárolása egy lítium-ion akkumulátorban?

1 kWh-s lítium-ion akkumulátor perspektivikus ára: 200 € Maximális élettartama: 10 év Maximális ciklusszáma (200 munkanap/év): 2000 Tényleges kihasználható kapacitása: 0,4-(0,5) kWh Így 1 kWh tárolási költsége > 20 ct

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2012. 01. 23

Shell Scenarios

Source: Shell

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2012. 01. 23

Indicative Order of Magnitude of Energy Resources

Source: Shell

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2012. 01. 23

World Hydrocarbon Resources

Source: Shell

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2012. 01. 23

Options for Transport Fuels

Source: Shell

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2012. 01. 23

Passenger Car Sales Germany 2007 vs. 2006 New Car Sales Germany 2007 vs. 2006 by CO2 Emission class

CO2 Emission –g/km

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

Clear consumer trend towards more fuel efficient vehicles already in 2007 (not only in Europe but also worldwide)



This trend will increase during the next years

Fuel economy / CO2 will become Source: AID / KBA

the key buying factor with passenger cars

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2012. 01. 23

CO2 Penalties according to EU Legislation 21470

Porsche

17905 8170

DC 3560

7220 3655 6840

Nissan

3275 6175

Hyundai

2610 6460

VW

2895

Ford

2800

Slow Follower have to change their complete Range of Products by the End of the Decade

6365 5795

GM

2230

Honda

2230

5795 5130 1565

Rather invest into new Technologies than in Penalties!

4845 1280 4370

Fiat

805

PSA

805

Penalty per Vehicle by Brand [EURO]*

00 0 22

00 0 20

00 0 18

00 0 16

00 0 14

00 0 12

00 0 10

00 80

00

00 60

20

00

4370

40

Renault

System (conventional proposedPowertrain) legislation 2015 Optimization as Key? – the Engine alone cannot fulfil Future Requirements

7125

Mazda

Toyota

proposed legislation 2020

4605

BMW

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* Based on Vehicle Sales & average CO2 Emission in 2007

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2012. 01. 23

Technology OEM On-Cost vs. Benefit (related to Gasoline)

4.000 €

OEM On-Costs

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On-Costs 3.500 €

Stop / Start Mild HEV Full HEV Conv.Diesel Conventional Gasoline in Conventional Functionality (Gasoline) (Gasoline) Technology Changes Gasoline Powertrain leads to Parallel Full Hybrid limited Improvement in FC and CO 2-Reduction - only Near Reference 250 € 1300 € 3400 € 2000 $ (Gasoline) Term Solution

€ Fuel3.000 Consumption Potential

Reference -5 %for the lowest -15 % Cost -25 % OEMs are looking per%Benefit -27 Ratio

Cost/Benefit Ratio 2.000 € (FC)

Diesel Low Cost/Benefit Ratio @ Stop / Start Functionality, but Reference 50 € / % 87 € / % 136 € / % 74 € / % limited Improvement Parallel Mild Hybrid

2.500 €

1.500 €

(Gasoline) Best Cost/Benefit Ratio @ Mild Hybrid (today) compared Stop/Start CO2 Emission 1.000 € Reference % -15% -25% -19% to conventional-5Diesel Technology Reduction Potential 500 €

Cost/Benefit Ratio 0€ (CO2 Reduction) 0% Total Cost/Benefit Gasoline Ratio

Higher Energy Demand and higher Battery Costs for Full Hybrid leads to Reference 50 high € / % Cost/Benefit 87 € / % Ratio. 136 €Situation /% 105might €/% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% change in Future. Reference 50 € / % Conventional Changes is Gasoline Engine

Fuel Consumption Potential 87 € / % 136 € / % 90 € / %

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2012. 01. 23

Degree of Electrification – Near Term Expectations Pure ICE

Electric Vehicle

Fleet distribution (%)

1%

100%

Degree of Electrification Source: AVL

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2012. 01. 23

Degree of Electrification – Near Term Expectations Electric Vehicle

1%

Fullhybrid / Powersplit

EV + Range Extender


Mildhybrid

Pure ICE Microhybrid

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100%


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2012. 01. 23

Degree of Electrification – Vision 2025 Electric Vehicle

1%

EV + Range Extender


Powersplit Hybrid

Pure ICE Parallel Hybrid

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100%


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2012. 01. 23

Degree of Electrification – Vision 2025 Electric Vehicle

1%

EV with extended range, less cost but same performance

Pure Range Extender e.g. GM Volt

EV + Range Extender

Based on conv. powertrain with mainly electric driving

Direct Drive e.g. VW Twin drive


Powersplit Hybrid

Pure ICE Parallel Hybrid

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100%


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2012. 01. 23

Range Extender – Cost Comparison € 25.000

AER = All Electric Range

€ 22.500

AER pure EV

€ 20.000 € 17.500 € 15.000 € 12.500

AER with RE

12.200 € Saving

€ 10.000 € 7.500

RE Cost

5.400 € Saving

€ 5.000

RE Cost

Total Range with RE

€ 2.500 €0

> 300

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

Source: AVL

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The future Powertrain will be Different…

2012. 01. 23

TAMOP-4.2.1/B-09/1/KONV-2010-0003

Mobilitás és környezet Járműipari, energetikai és környezeti kutatások a Közép- és Nyugat-Dunántúli Régióban A projekt a Magyar Állam és az Európai Unió támogatásával, az Európai Szociális Alap társfinanszírozásával valósul meg.

Nemzeti Fejlesztési Ügynökség www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu 06 40 638 638

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Mobilitás és Környezet Konferencia

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