16 Maret 2015
Minyak: Akan Turun Sampai Berapa? “The projected demand for oil in terms of millions of barrels per day has done nothing but climb higher and higher since 2009. The EIA puts current global oil consumption at a massive 91.5 million bpd, or more than 5.5 million bpd higher than in 2007. At this very moment we are already experiencing the highest daily demand worldwide ever recorded. And to meet future demand it’s literally going to require a record-breaking amount of production every year as far as the eye can see. Meanwhile, the current global oil supply is estimated at just 92.2 million bpd, which hardly constitutes the ‘glut’ the TV pundits keep harping on. As the most fluid commodity in the world, crude has the ability to quickly self-correct. That’s why long-time oil veterans aren’t worried about falling prices. In fact, the vast majority of them (including myself) actually expect oil prices to climb this year.” -- Money Morning’s Global Energy Strategist Dr. Kent Moors
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
“Many people think that the resurgence of U.S. oil production shows that Peak Oil was wrong. Peak oil doesn’t mean that we are running out of oil. It simply means that once conventional oil production begins to decline, future supply will have to come from more difficult sources that will be more expensive or of lower quality or both. This means production from deep water, shale and heavy oil. It seems to me that Peak Oil predictions are right on track.” -- Energy expert Arthur Berman on January 7, 2015
“On the face of it, the oil price appears to be stabilizing. What a precarious balance it is, however. Behind the façade of stability, the rebalancing triggered by the price collapse has yet to run its course, and it might be overly optimistic to expect it to proceed smoothly. Yet U.S. supply so far shows precious little sign of slowing down. Quite to the contrary, it continues to defy expectations.” -- The Paris-based IEA’s monthly report on March 13, 2015
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Booming produksi minyak AS sebabkan tekanan besar harga minyak dunia – hampir 60% dari puncak Juni 2014 lalu. Kejatuhan harga minyak dimulai musim panas tahun lalu dan lanjutkan akselerasinya pada November 2014. Sejak itu proyeksi harga minyak untuk 2015 kian marak – mulai dari harga $20 dari Citigroup, bahkan hingga ke $100 yang diproyeksikan oleh T. Boone Pickens. Sekjen OPEC pun mengatakan bahwa harga minyak dapat meningkat hingga $200 dalam beberapa tahun mendatang karena akan terjadinya pemangkasan drastic dan gagalnya investasi di produksi baru. Satu hal mengenai harga minyak, mengutip Yogi Berra, adalah “predictions are hard, especially about the future.” Jadi apakah tekanan harga minyak sudah selesai? Saya tidak tahu. Juga yang lain pun tidak akan tahu. Yang jelas kini tekanan harga minyak sudah sampai titik yang menarik. Saat laporan ini dibuat (16/Mar), harga minyak WTI (West Texas Intermediate) lanjut merosot ke $43.57, level terendah sejak Maret 2009.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
How About Supply? Tekanan jual minyak tahun lalu dipicu oleh meningkatnya produksi minyak AS di luar dugaan, serta keptusan OPEC mempertahankan produksi minyak mereka, yang menyebabkan banjirnya supply minyak. Indikator terpenting untuk coba mengetahui arah harga ke depannya adalah dengan level-level produksi minyak terkini. Menghadapi pemangkasan spending, penurunan rig counts, dan lanjutnya tekanan harga, produksi minyak terus melawan gravitasi. Produksi terus meningkat. Di akhir Februari 2015, AS memproduksi 9,3 juta barel/hari, atau naik 10% sejak harga minyak mulai merosot Juni 2014, dan bahkan juga naik 2% dari awal tahun 2015. Harga memang belum memotong trend line namun dapat mengujinya dalam waktu dekat ini.
Sean Brodrick, seorang Resource Strategist di The Oxford Club, yakin kisaran rata-rata minyak WTI (benchmark harga minyak dunia), masih akan di bawah $50 sepanjang 2015 ini. Berikut alasannya:
The World Is Swimming in Crude “U.S. crude oil production rose to 9.366 million barrels per day (bpd) as of March 13. That’s the fastest pace in at least three decades, according to the Energy Information Administration.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
A year earlier, the U.S. was producing just 7 million bpd. What a jump! And it’s not just us. •
In 2014, Russia's average oil output hit a post-Soviet record high of 10.58 million bpd. If the world’s oil producers are looking for short-term relief, they won’t find it in Russia, which is inking one deal after another to supply China with oil and gas.
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Iraq’s oil production just surged to the highest level in decades. Iraq exported nearly 3 million bpd in December, the most since the 1980s.
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Canada’s oil shipments to the U.S. are up 63% in the past five years to a record 3.1 million bpd. In January, the new Seaway Twin pipeline nearly doubled the amount of heavy Canadian crude coming to Gulf terminals and plants - to about 400,000 bpd.
All told, there is a surplus of about 1.5 million bpd of crude oil in the market. Until that is eaten up, it’s hard for crude prices to go much higher. Right now, about 58 million barrels of excess crude are being stored on oil tankers. When prices rise, that oil will come onto the market, driving prices down again.”
Selanjutnya menteri minyak Arab Saudi, Ali Al-Naimi, menyatakan frustasi negaranya dengan situasi saat ini, dalam sebuah wawancaranya dengan the Middle East Economic Survey awal tahun ini: “Is it reasonable for a highly efficient producer to reduce output, while the producer of poor efficiency continues to produce? That is crooked logic. If I reduce, what happens to my market share? The price will go up, and the Russians, the Brazilians, [and] U.S. shale oil producers will take my share,” Arab Saudi melihat peningkatan minyak bebatuan AS dan mengetahui bahwa pihaknya dapat kehilangan lagi pangsa pasar. Oleh karenanya penolakan OPEC pangkas produksi dan pertahankan harga tinggi adalah merupakan pesan yang jelas bahwa Arab Saudi tidak akan jadi swing producer. Arab Saudi harapkan harga minyak terus melemah dalam jangka panjang sehingga produsenprodusen kecil minyak bebatuan AS akan terlempar dari bisnis ini, dan mereka yang masih kuat bertahan akan menjadi swing producer dan pangkas produksi.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Alasan lain kejatuhan harga minyak, yang tidak banyak diketahui dianggap sebagai sebuah conspiracy theory (dan mulai terlihat), adalah MENGHANCURKAN KENDALI RUSIA ATAS SURIAH. Silahkan baca kutipan laporan Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com untuk mengetahui isu geopolitik yang sangat mempengaruhi harga minyak: “A week ago we explained that yet another conspiracy theory, one involving virtually every geopolitical hot zone, from Saudi Arabia, to Russia, the United States, Qatar, Syria, ISIS, and Ukraine, has become fact when our speculation from last September, namely that the plunge in oil was an choreographed move between the US and the Saudis (even if Kerry realized - we hope - that it meant a recession for the US energy producing states and a collapse in the only vibrant US industry of the past decade: shale), one seeking to dislodge Russian control over the Syrian government and to facilitate the passage of a Qatar pipeline under Syrian territory.
This is what the NYT said: "Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices."
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Rig Count Is Still Falling Selain harga minyak, sumur minyak yang masih beroperasi dalam basis mingguan juga menjadi salah satu indikator penting yang paling diamati. Dan data mingguan sumur minyak AS dari Baker Hughes telah memunculkan hashtag #Rigcountguesses di Twitter, yang di dalamnya para analis berikan prediksi mereka.
Dalam 14 pekan berturut-turut, sumur minyak AS yang beroperasi turun 67 menjadi 1125, atau merosot 5.6% menjadi 41.4%, masih lebih tinggi dari rekor terendah 14 pekannya di Maret 2009 lalu, yakni 41%. Seperti Anda lihat di bawah, ini adalah penurunan terbesar sejak 1986:
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
But … Production Continues To Hit Record Highs Meski sumur minyak AS menyita banyak perhatian sebagai indikator bagi potensi tekanan produksi, namun banyak yang bilang indikator ini tidak sepenuhnya akurat. Para pengebor bisa tetap efektif dan efisien: mampu menghasilkan produksi yang sama meski dengan sumur minyak yang berkurang. Jadi dugaan bahwa berkurangnya sumur minyak akan picu tekanan produksi tidak sesederhana seperti yang dipikirkan.
Berkurangnya sumur minyak mengikuti tekanan harga minyak, namun tidak berdampak pada level produksi karena perusahaan semakin tingkatkan dana untuk produksi ketika harga merosot. Dan kebutuhan “PUMP OR DIE” tersebut membuat perusahaan cenderung memompa minyak lebih banyak di harga yang rendah ketimbang harga yang lebih tinggi. Seperti dikatakan oleh seorang analis, meski sumur minyak berkurang, perusahaan-perusahaan melakukan high-grading (beralih ke sumur yang lebih optimal), “the real thing that needs to change is U.S. production and that is not happening at the moment.”
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
The Unique Features of U.S. Fracking Dalam laporan pasar GMO terbarunya, Jeremy Grantham membawa kita ke aspek-aspek menarik mengenai pengaruh fracking pada pasar minyak dan ekonomi saat ini. Ringkasnya: “Rigs are being rapidly withdrawn as I write. What is not realized yet, although very shortly will be, is how rapidly fracking wells deplete. Even some of the recent impressive improvements in “productivity” have been moving more of the total output into the first year. Up to 65% of all of the available oil is now often delivered in the first year!
Even in the heyday last July, 75% to 80% of all new production in the Bakken was needed to offset the decline from existing “legacy” wells. It could be worked out that daily production would start to decline with only a 25% reduction in oil rigs at work, a level we are rapidly approaching. Thus, at current or lower prices, Bakken production should turn down by June and possibly by the end of the first quarter. Meanwhile, back at the head office, several of the “majors” are also savaging their capex budgets for regular oil development. Unlike fracking, which takes days to adjust, old-fashioned oil, which is increasingly deep offshore or in countries that we can all agree are more difficult to operate in than, say, North Dakota, can take 5 to 10 years (and occasionally 15) before a planning dollar becomes gas in the tank.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Spending cuts, therefore, will echo into the quite distant future as reduced oil production for which there will be no quick fix, for by then any increases from fracking will be distant memories. And this is a key point: U.S. fracking is the only important component of global supply that can turn up almost immediately by bringing in new rigs and drilling wells in under two weeks, adding 20-30% to production in a year as it did for each of the last two years. It is also the only important component that can turn off quickly by depleting almost completely in three years. As with Alice’s Red Queen, if you pause for breath in fracking you go backwards: more wells must be drilled all the time to even stay still as the wall of rapidly depleting wells builds up behind you. Nothing remotely like this has ever been experienced before so drawing wrong conclusions, as if the traditional data applied, is particularly easy.
The New Oil Balance Lower oil prices and much reduced capex will guarantee that oil from fracking will start decreasing this year and that the supply of traditional oil will be less than it would have been. Indeed, at recent prices very few, if any, new drilling programs will be started, and a mere three years later at current prices, 80% or so of Bakken production would be history. But right now we have a substantial excess of production, and oil demand is notoriously inelastic to price in the short term – people will not be leaping into their cars to celebrate lower gas prices. But with time they may drive an extra 1-2% percent here and elsewhere and the excess will slowly clear: possibly by mid-year and almost certainly by the end of next year. After supply and demand come into balance, the price initially is likely to rise slowly, held in check by the increasing amounts of U.S. fracking oil that can be profitably produced at each new higher price level. It is this rapid response rate that will make the frackers the key marginal suppliers. This is a sensitive and, I believe, unknowable equation as to precise timing, but this phase will likely end only when fracking production, even at much higher prices, tops out, as it most likely will in the next five years. After that, I believe the equation will revert to the relatively more stable and more knowable one of the 2011 to 2013 era, in which the price of oil will be the full cost of finding and developing incremental traditional oil, which by then is likely to be over $100 a barrel. (In the interest of full disclosure I personally have been and will continue to be a moderate buyer of oil futures six to eight years out, for reasons that should be clear from the above. It should also be clear that such a bet can lose easily enough.)”
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Energy Crisis As Early As 2016? North American unconventional (oil sands and shale) have been almost all of net global supply growth since 2005. If unconventional growth grinds to zero and conventional growth is falling outright, the supply side heading into 2016 looks highly compromised. Right now, businesses in the oil industry are laying off staff and digging deep into economic survival mode. For example, oil exploration company Apache Corporation has reported its Q4 results, and they were awful. Apache lost a whopping $4.8 billion in the last 90 days of 2014.
As a result, CEO John Christmann is taking tough steps to stem the financial bleeding by shutting down 70% of the company’s drilling rigs and slashing its 2015 capital budget to between $3.6 and $5.0 billion, down from $8.5 billion in 2014. Those aren’t the actions of an industry insider who expects things to get better anytime soon. And Apache is far from alone. Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Weatherford International and ConocoPhillips have also announced major layoffs. In fact, according to staffing expert Swift Worldwide Resources, the number of energy jobs lost this year has climbed to well above 100,000 around the world.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
How About Oil Demand? Perlu diingat bahwa tekanan harga minyak saat ini disebabkan karena TOO MUCH SUPPLY, dan bukannya turunnya demand. Bahkan sisi demand lah yang mampu menjaga harga minyak bertahan dari tekanan lebih jauh. Oleh karenanya, biasanya inilah waktu kita melihat kenaikan harga menjelang musim panas.
Rendahnya harga minyak ini akan menyebabkan dunia kekurangan minyak paling cepat di tahun 2016 karena supply hanya 2% di atas demand. JIka supply jatuh terlalu dalam, maka harga minyak akan melonjak dua kali lipat dalam 18 bulan. Ntuk barang komoditas penting dan primer di kehidupan, seperti minyak ini, kekurangan sedikit saja akan langsung dorong harga. Pada akhirnya, ekonomi global akan membaik, demand minyak pun akan kembali naik. Arab Saudi mengetahui saat ini terjadi, maka harga minyak akan naik lagi.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Technical Update Bulan lalu, harga minyak break tekanannya dalam 7 bulan – sama seperti yang terjadi di 2008/09:
Jika minyak ikuti langkah harga gas alam setelah krisis 2008, maka harga akan bergerak dalam kisarannya untuk waktu panjang.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Conclusion Masih stabilnya produksi minyak membatasi peluang kebangkitan harga. Arab Saudi dan OPEC bisa turunkan produksi, seperti yang diinginkan mayoritas anggota kartel tersebut, sama seperti AS. Namun kali ini, Arab Saudi masih akan menanti dan berharap akan ada penurunan produksi minyak bebatuan atau para produsen AS turunkan produksi agar harga naik. Membatasi lonjakan global demand bisa terjadi berlarut-larut dan dapat tekan harga. Bahkan dapat menyuramkan prospek fluktuasi di pasar uang – yang mempengaruhi dan dipengaruhi oleh harga minyak. Yang terpenting adalah USD karena harga minyak dinyatakan dalam USD. Sebagai contoh ketika rilis optimis data tenaga kerja AS tanggal 6 Maret lalu, yang secara teori akan dorong naik harga minyak, karena perbaikan ekonomi akan tingkatkan konsumsi minyak. Namun harga minyak saat itu merosot, mengapa…? Karena optimisme ekonomi tingkatkan spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS, yang dorong penguatan USD. Karena harga minyak dinyatakan dalam USD, maka hal tersebut berikan tekanan pada harga minyak. Yang terakhir, menurut pengamat pasar banjirnya supply masih akan tekan harga minyak. Namun… di sisi lain demand juga naik ke rekor tertingginya. Ini akan berikan dampak besar pada harga minyak ke depan. Oleh karena itu, saya memperkirakan HARGA MINYAK AKAN NAIK SATU WAKTU DI TAHUN 2015 HINGGA 2016.
Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!
Regards, Nico Omer Jonckheere VP Research and Analysis PT. Valbury Asia Futures
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
