March 6, 2017
Franky Rivan
+62-21-515-1140
[email protected]
To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at
[email protected]
Developers 4Q16 preview: Earnings to meet our estimates
Market Index Last Trade JCI MSCI Indonesia MSCI EM HANG SENG KOSPI FTSE DJIA NASDAQ Valuation 2017F JCI
Chg (%)
MoM
5,391.2 24.7 931.1 23,552.7 2,078.8 7,374.3 21,005.7 5,870.8
-0.3 0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.2
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
15.6
YoY
0.2 -1.8 1.4 1.6 0.1 2.9 4.7 3.5
Unfavorable property market haunted marketing sales
11.5 2.7 18.4 17.6 6.3 19.1 23.5 24.3
ROE (%)
2.3
17.9
Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) BI 7-Day RR
4.75 3yr 7.15 10yr 7.51 *since introduced in Aug 2016
MoM
0 -5 -3
0 -5 -9
YoY
-50* -72 -54
FX Last Trade USD/IDR
Chg (%)
13,383.00 1,156.22 114.04 6.90
USD/KRW USD/JPY USD/CNY
MoM
0.2 1.3 -0.3 0.1
0.1 1.6 2.1 0.3
YoY
0.9 -3.8 0.5 5.4
Kami mengumpulkan data marketing sales developer di bawah coverage kami, yaitu BSDE, SMRA, PWON, dan LPKR untuk melihat kekuatan permintaan pasar properti. Marketing sales FY16 masih cukup mengecewakan karena hanya sebesar 65,2% dari target setahun penuh perusahaan secara kumulatif, dan turun 28,6% YoY. Secara kuartalan, kami juga lihat adanya pelemahan marketing sales, dengan turun 17% YoY secara kumulatif. Oasis: Improved revenue recognition Namun, di sisi positifnya, kami yakin kondisi moneter dan fiskal yang lebih baik terhadap pasar properti telah sedikit memperbaiki kondisi pasar. Data KPR terbaru dari OJK menunjukkan data yang menggembirakan karena rasio NPL KPR turun menjadi 2,45% per Desember 2016 (vs 2,84% puncaknya di Mei 2016). Angka cash conversion cycle paling baru yang dikeluarkan LPKR juga menunjukkan peningkatan, sebesar 1.410 hari (vs 1.536 hari di 2015), yang kami percaya akan membuat pengakuan pendapatan yang lebih baik untuk developer properti. Karena itu, kami percaya pengakuan pendapatan yang lebih baik dapat memulihkan pendapatan developer di 4Q16, yang mengimbangi pelemahan marketing sales di 4Q16. Earnings to meet our estimates Factoring-in hal yang kami sebutkan di atas, kami optimis bahwa earnings 4Q16 developer akan sesuai estimasi kami, sesuai dengan view Neutral kami di sektor ini. Developer yang telah merilis laporan keuangannya yaitu LPKR sangat sesuai dengan estimasi kami, dengan memenuhi 102,4% (pendapatannya) dan 99,8% (laba bersihnya) terhadap estimasi setahun penuh kami. Karena itu, kami lihat sedikit kemungkinan akan adanya potensi upside/downside untuk harga saham developer yang disebabkan oleh rilis laporan keuangan 4Q16 nya.
Commodities Last Trade WTI
Chg (%)
53.3 1,234.8 81.0 705.0 195.4 10,780.0 5,930.0 19,500.0
Gold Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel Copper Tin
1.4 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 -2.3 -1.4 0.8
MoM
-0.6 -0.1 -2.5 5.0 -11.4 5.4 2.7 -2.1
YoY
22.8 -2.6 58.4 21.3 84.4 19.8 22.1 17.5
Mortgage loan trend and NPL rate
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
(pt)
JCI
MSCI EM
(pt) 1,100
5,500
950 4,500 3,500 03/13
800 03/14
03/15
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
(pt)
5,500
JCI
03/16
650 03/17
MSCI EM
Source: : OJK, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
(pt) 1,100
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
2 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Local flashes WTON: Wika Beton operasikan pabrik crushing plant di Palu. PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk (WTON) meresmikan pengoperasikan pabrik crushing plant (pemecah batu material alam) di Kabupaten Donggala, Palu, Sulawesi Tengah. Pabrik crushing plant ini merupakan pabrik ketiga yang dimiliki anak usaha PT Wijaya Karya Tbk ini. Sebelumnya, WTON telah membuka pabrik crushing plantdi wilayah Lampung dan Bogor. Pabrik ini memiliki kapasitas terpasang sebesar 240.000 ton per tahun. Pabrik diperkirakan dapat menyuplai kebutuhan bahan baku split hingga 30 tahun mendatang. (Kontan) PPRO: PP Properti-Aryan Indonesia bentuk usaha patungan. PT PP Properti Tbk (PPRO) membentuk usaha patungan dengan PT Aryan Indonesia pada 1 Maret 2017. Indaryanto, Sekretaris Perusahaan Perseroan menyebutkan perusahaan patungan ini akan menjalankan usaha dan pembangunan proyek taman rekreasi KidZania di proyek Laggon Avenue Sungkono Surabaya. (Iqplus) MNCN: MNC bidik pendapatan 2017 tumbuh 8%. PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN) menatap tahun ini lebih optimistis. Emiten media ini menargetkan pertumbuhan pendapatan sebesar 8% pada 2017. Optimisme ini didasari sentimen perbaikan ekonomi. Direktur Utama MNCN, David F Audy menyebut, outlook tahun 2017 akan positif dibandingkan tahun lalu yang pertumbuhan pendapatannya diprediksi mencapai 5,5% year on year menjadi Rp 6,8 triliun. Hal ini juga didorong pendapatan MNCN pada kuartal empat lalu yang tumbuh 8,6%. (Kontan) MBTO: Martina Berto bidik laba tumbuh 20%. PT Martina Berto Tbk menargetkan pertumbuhan laba bersih 20% tahun sepanjang tahun 2017. Bagi produsen kosmetik Sariayu Martha Tilaar itu, target yang dicanangkan itu termasuk agresif. Sebab, tahun 2015 lalu bottom line mereka merah. Tahun 2015, Martina Berto mencatatkan rugi bersih Rp 14,06 miliar. Padahal pendapatan bersih mereka masih tumbuh 3,48% menjadi Rp 694,78 miliar. (Kontan) TBLA: Pangkas pinjaman bank, TBLA refinancing lewat global bonds US$200 juta. PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk. berencana untuk menerbitkan surat utang global senilai maksimal US$200 juta melalui anak usahanya yang berbasis di Singapura, TBLA International Pte. Ltd. Melalui prospektus ringkas yang dipublikasikan Jumat (3/3), direksi Tunas Baru Lampung menjabarkan dana hasil emisi global bond akan digunakan perseroan untuk menurunkan saldo pinjaman jangka menengah dan/atau jangka pendek. (Bisnis Indonesia) BINA: Bank Ina Perdana punya dua investor baru. Pemegang saham di PT Bank Ina Perdana Tbk (INA) terjadi perombakan. Berdasarkan laporan keterbukaan di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), investor terbaru yang akan masuk ke saham Bank Ina Perdana adalah PT Gaya Hidup Masa Kini dan PT Samura Biru. Kedua investor tersebut menjadi angin segar bagi perusahaan. Edy Kuntardjo, Direktur Utama Bank Ina Perdana mengakui, kedua investor tersebut akan masuk melalui right issue. Data terakhir sambil menunggu audit penjatahan Gaya Hidup Masa Kini akan memiliki saham 12,48% di Bank INA dan Samudra Biru akan memiliki saham 16,52% di Bank INA. (Kontan)
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
3
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Technical analysis Tasrul
+62-21-515-1140
[email protected]
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Consolidation IHSG akan menguji support di 5,378 IHSG saat masih dalam pola uptrend jangka pendek relatif valid yang dimulai sejak selama 356 hari terakhir dengan r-squared = 0.7263 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.1 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 27.37% atau sekitar 9 bar chart. Volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar +/-0.39% atau sekitar +/- 20.8 point. IHSG akan coba menguji support di 5,378 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary Item Close (March 3, 2017)
Data
Item
Data
5,391.21(-0.3%)Trading range
Average index performance (%)
5,378-5,418
0.90Target 36 - Daily 0.7263 - Weekly 0.39 - Monthly 20.8 Stop loss
Period r-squared Volatility (+/-, %) Volatility (+/-, point)
5,408 5,425 5,470 5,374
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend - Uptrend ^JKSE - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 5402.58, Hi 5410.9, Lo 5384.79, Close 5391.21 (-0.3%) Upper Band = 5,432.89, Channel_prd = 5,405.50, Lower Band = 5,378.12, Upper Band = 5,467.70, Channel_prd = 5,405.50 5,467.7
5,418
5,432.89 5,405.5 5,405.5 5,391.21 5,378.12 5,374.65 5,345.15 5,343.3
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 ^JKSE - Volume = 11,033,670,656.00, Avg.Volume = 14,529,988,608.00
14,529,988,608 11,033,670,656 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 19 27 2017
9
16
23
30
Feb
6
13
20
27
Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
4 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas indeks tuurn masih terlihat namun relatif terbatas. Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator RSI optimized akan menguji support trendline dengan volume masih di bawah rata-rata, dengan demikian potensi koreksi masih terlihat namun terbatas . Resistance terdekat di 5,418 dan support di 5,378. Stop loss level di 5,374. Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized & RSI optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 38.45
38.4531
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 56.95
56.9517
^JKSE - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 5402.58, Hi 5410.9, Lo 5384.79, Close 5391.21 (-0.3%) VWAP = 5,333.36, VWAP = 5,374.46, VWAP = 5,345.15 5,418 5,391.21 5,374.46 5,345.15 5,333.36
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 ^JKSE - Volume = 11,033,670,656.00, Avg.Volume = 14,529,988,608.00
14,529,988,608 11,033,670,656 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov
7
14
21
28
Dec
13
19
27
2017 9
16
23
30 Feb 6
13
20
27 Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
5
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
IHSG akan coba naik mendekati resistance 2 pada masing-masing periode. Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut IHSG saat ini harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing-masing periode dengan target terdekat berikutnya resistance 2 pada periode masing-masing sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 3,4 dan 5. Figure 3. Daily, target : 5,408
Figure 4. Weekly, target : 5,425
^JKSE - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 5402.58, Hi 5410.9, Lo 5384.79,
Figure 5. Monthly,target : 5,470
^JKSE - Weekly 3/3/2017 Open 5387.82, Hi 5431.17, Lo 5350.91, 5,438.92
5,418.14 5,407.76 5,397.37 5,391.21 5,386.99 5,376.6 5,366.21
x
^JKSE - Monthly 3/3/2017 Open 5389.17, Hi 5431.17, Lo 5350.91, 5,527.11 5,492.9 5,458.7 5,424.49 5,391.21 5,390.28 5,356.07 5,321.86 5,287.65 5,253.45
5,428.53
5,628.28 5,549.06 5,469.84 5,391.21 5,390.62 5,311.4 5,232.17 5,152.95 5,073.73
5,355.83
^JKSE - Volume = 11,033,670,656.00, Avg.Volume = 14,529,988,608.00
^JKSE - Volume = 46,181,199,872.00, Avg.Volume = 62,554,447,872.00
5,707.5
^JKSE - Volume = 27,087,009,792.00, Avg.Volume = 150,629,122,048.00
62,554,447,872
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Feb Mar Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
150,629,122,048
46,181,199,872
14,529,988,608 11,033,670,656
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Oct 2017 Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 2015 2016 2017
27,087,009,792
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
6 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Stocks on our focus list Bank Rakyat Indonesia Agroniaga (AGRO) – Sell on Strength Harga akan coba naik mendekati normal upper band pada trend channel. Secara umum harga saham ini masih bergerak pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.88) selama 30 hari terakhir yang bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.56 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 11.94 % (sekitar 4bbar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakkan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/- 4.45 % atau sekitar +/-47.18 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 45-50 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Saat ini harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 6.
Summary Item
Data
Close (March 3,, 2017) Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) β (beta) Corelation Period
Item
Data
1,060(+3.9%)Trading range 46.17Target 0.76 - Daily 0.71 - Weekly 30 - Monthly
r-squared
1,000-1,120 1,010 1,080 1,120
0.88Stop loss 4.45 47.18
Volatility (+/-, %) Volatility (+/-, Rp.)
980
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 6. Daily trend – Uptrend AGRO.JK - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 1020, Hi 1100, Lo 1020, Close 1060 (3.9%) Upper Band = 1,170.24, Channel_prd = 1,048.71, Lower Band = 927.18, VWAP = 982.01 1,170.24 1,020 1,060 1,048.71 982.007 1,000 927.179
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 AGRO.JK - Volume = 149,734,800.00, Avg.Volume = 112,273,824.00
149,734,800 112,273,824 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 7 14 21 28
Dec
13
19
27
2017
9
16
23
30 Feb 6
13
20
27 Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
7
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat. Pada Figure 7, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R optimized masih cenderung naik dengan volume tembus rata-rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Resistance terdekat di 1,120 . Support terdekat di 1,000. Stop loss level di 980.
Figure 7. Daily, MFI optimized & W%R optimized AGRO.JK - MFI Smoothed = 88.97 88.9667
AGRO.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -14.77 -14.7734
AGRO.JK - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 1020, Hi 1100, Lo 1020, Close 1060 (3.9%) VWAP = 982.01, VWAP = 809.94 1,120 1,060 982.007 1,000 809.937
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 AGRO.JK - Volume = 149,734,800.00, Avg.Volume = 112,273,824.00
149,734,800 112,273,824 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Feb
Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
8 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga akan naik dan bertahan diatas resistance 2 pada masing-masing periode. Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar resistance 2 masing-masing periode dengan target berikutnya mendekati resistance 4 pada masingmasing periode sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 8,9 dan 10.
Figure 8. Daily ,target : 1,010 AGRO.JK - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 1020, Hi 1100, Lo 1020, Close
Figure 9. Weekly, target : 1,080 1,144.36 1,120.77 1,097.18 1,073.59 1,060 1,050 1,026.41 1,002.82 979.233 955.644
AGRO.JK - Volume = 149,734,800.00, Avg.Volume = 112,273,824.00
AGRO.JK - Weekly 3/3/2017 Open 980, Hi 1100, Lo 975, Close
Figure 10. Monthly, target : 1,120 1,134.93 1,108.39 1,081.84 1,060 1,055.3 1,028.75 1,002.2 975.658 949.112 922.566
AGRO.JK - Volume = 471,003,456.00, Avg.Volume = 400,443,040.00
AGRO.JK - Monthly 3/3/2017 Open 990, Hi 1100, Lo 990,
AGRO.JK - Volume = 294,269,888.00, Avg.Volume = 1,167,151,616.00
471,003,456 400,443,040
149,734,800 112,273,824
1,117.27 1,089.85 1,062.42 1,060 1,035 1,007.58 980.152 952.728 925.304
1,167,151,616
294,269,888 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Feb Mar Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Oct 2017 Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 2015 2016 2017 Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
9
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harum Energy (HRUM) – Trading Buy Harga akan coba naik dan tembus center line pada uptrend channel . Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.79) selama 281 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.25 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 21.02% (sekitar 59 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/ 3.24 % atau sekitar +/- 75.59 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 75 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Saat ini harga akan coba naik dan tembus center line pada uptrend channel sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 11.
Summary Item
Data
Close (March 3, 2017)
Item
Data 2,260-2,410
2,330(+5.9%) Trading range
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) β (beta) Corelation Period
9.69Target 0.20 - Daily 0.46 - Weekly 281 - Monthly
2,370 2,430 2,470
r-squared
0.79Stop loss
2,160
Volatility (+/-, %)
3.24 75.59
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 11. Daily trend – Uptrend HRUM.JK - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 2200, Hi 2340, Lo 2170, Close 2330 (5.9%) Upper Band = 2,642.16, Channel_prd = 2,285.25, Lower Band = 1,928.33, VWAP = 2,161.07, VWAP = 2,260.84 2,642.16 2,410 2,330 2,285.25 2,260.84 2,161.07 1,928.33
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 HRUM.JK - Volume = 29,872,100.00, Avg.Volume = 14,346,600.00
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Dec 2016 Feb
29,872,100 14,346,600 Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Feb
Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
10 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat. Pada Figure 12, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI Optimized dan indicator RSI Optimized masih cenderung naik dengan volume tembus rata-rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Resistance terdekat di 2,410. Support saat ini di 2,260. Stop loss level di 2,160.
Figure 12. Daily, MFI optimized & RSI optimized HRUM.JK - MFI Smoothed = 69.19
69.1899
HRUM.JK - RSI Smoothed = 72.63 72.6315
HRUM.JK - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 2200, Hi 2340, Lo 2170, Close 2330 (5.9%) VWAP = 2,161.07, VWAP = 2,260.84 2,410 2,330 2,260.84 2,161.07
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 29,872,100.00, Avg.Volume = 13,302,382.00
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 May Jun
29,872,100 13,302,382 Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Feb
Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
11
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga akan coba naik dan tembus resistance 2 pada masing-masing periode. Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal di support 1 masingmasing periode dengan target berikutnya tembus resistance 2 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 14,15 dan 16.
Figure 13. Daily, target : 2,370
Figure 14. Weekly, target : 2,430
HRUM.JK - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 2200, Hi 2340, Lo 2170, Close
Figure 15. Monthly, target : 2,470
x
HRUM.JK - Weekly 3/3/2017 Open 2190, Hi 2340, Lo 2130, 2,411.19
HRUM.JK - Monthly 3/3/2017 Open 2180, Hi 2340, Lo 2130, 3,134.89 2,608.52 2,518.27 2,428.01 2,337.76 2,330
2,373.39 2,335.59 2,330 2,297.8
2,912.42 2,689.94
2,247.5 2,467.47
2,157.24 2,260
2,330 2,245
2,066.99 1,976.73
2,222.2
1,886.48
2,022.53
2,184.41 1,800.06 2,146.61 1,577.58
2,108.81
1,355.11
HRUM.JK - Volume = 29,872,100.00, Avg.Volume = 13,302,382.0029,872,100
HRUM.JK - Volume = 68,596,896.00, Avg.Volume = 44,440,160.00
HRUM.JK - Volume = 39,424,400.00, Avg.Volume = 294,491,552.00
13,302,382
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Feb Mar Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
294,491,552
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Oct 2017
68,596,896 44,440,160
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 2015 2016 2017
39,424,400
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
12 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Surya Citra Media (SCMA) – Buy on Weakness Harga akan coba naik dan tembus abnormal lower band pada uptrend channel. Secara umum harga saham ini akan coba naik dan tembus normal lower band pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid dengan r-squared = 0.78 selama 77 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.28 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar 22.23 % (sekitar 17 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/1.59 % atau sekitar +/-43.64 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 40-45 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 16.
Summary Item
Data
Close (March 3, 2017) Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) β (beta)
Item
Data
2,740(-5.2%)Trading range (4.67) Target 2.94 - Daily
Corelation
2,670-2,900 2,850
0.72 - Weekly 77 - Monthly
Period r-squared
3,020 3,070
0.78 Stop loss 1.59 43.64
Volatility (+/-, %) Volatility (+/-, Rp.)
2,670
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 16. Daily Trend – Uptrend SCMA.JK - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 2860, Hi 2860, Lo 2740, Close 2740 (-5.2%) Upper Band = 3,183.95, Channel_prd = 3,042.78, Lower Band = 2,901.60, Upper Band = 3,317.26, Channel_prd = 3,042.78, Lower 3,317.26
3,183.95 3,042.78 3,042.78 2,920.29 2,901.6 2,896.38
2,768.29 2,740 2,672.29
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 SCMA.JK - Volume = 28,564,200.00, Avg.Volume = 12,527,683.00
28,564,200 12,527,683 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 17 24 31Nov 7
14
21
28
Dec
13
19
27
2017
9
16
23
30 Feb 6
13
20
27 Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
13
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas harga turun mulai tertahan. Pada Figure 17, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R Optimized akan menguji support trend line dengan volume di tembus rata-rata. Dengan demikian diperkirakan koreksi sudah mencapai selling climax. Perkiraan resistance terdekat ke 2,900. Support terdekat di 2,670 yang sekaligus sebagai stop loss level.
Figure 17. Daily MFI Optimized & W%R Optimized SCMA.JK - MFI Smoothed = 29.48
29.4756
SCMA.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -82.88
-82.8798 SCMA.JK - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 2860, Hi 2860, Lo 2740, Close 2740 (-5.2%) VWAP = 2,896.38, VWAP = 2,672.29, VWAP = 2,920.29
2,920.29 2,896.38 2,740 2,672.29
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 SCMA.JK - Volume = 28,564,200.00, Avg.Volume = 12,527,683.00
28,564,200 12,527,683 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Feb
Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
14 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan sekitar rata-rata pada masing-masing periode. Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan sekitar rata-rata masing-masing periode dengan target terdekat minimal resistance 2 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 18,19 dan 20. Figure 18. Daily, target : 2,850
Figure 19. Weekly, target : 3,020
SCMA.JK - Daily 3/3/2017 Open 2860, Hi 2860, Lo 2740, Close
Figure 20. Monthly, target : 3,070
SCMA.JK - Weekly 3/3/2017 Open 3050, Hi 3090, Lo 2740,
SCMA.JK - Monthly 3/3/2017 Open 2950, Hi 2950, Lo 2740,
3,125.49 3,070.36 3,015.24 2,960.12 2,905 2,849.88 2,794.76 2,740 2,739.64 2,684.51
2,897.6 2,873.2 2,848.8 2,824.4 2,800 2,775.6 2,751.2 2,740 2,726.8 2,702.4
3,290.22 3,178.92 3,067.61 2,956.31 2,845 2,740 2,733.69 2,622.39 2,511.08 2,399.78
SCMA.JK - Volume = 28,564,200.00, Avg.Volume = 12,527,683.0028,564,200
SCMA.JK - Volume = 64,960,600.00, Avg.Volume = 51,094,272.00
SCMA.JK - Volume = 44,785,600.00, Avg.Volume = 253,852,288.00
253,852,288
12,527,683
64,960,600 51,094,272 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Feb Mar Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) β (beta) Correlation Period r-squared Volatility (+/-%) Volatility (+/- point or Rp)
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Oct 2017 Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
44,785,600
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
: Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama Harga saham bergerak
Buy: Sell: BoW: SoS: Trading Buy: analyzed by : Tasrul,
[email protected], +62-21- 5151140 Trading Sell
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 2015 2016 2017
: Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area. : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area. : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana Volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati support, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area. : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area. : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara. : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relative tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
15
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Chart 21. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt)
Chart 22. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
JCI (L)
(IDR)
USD/IDR (R)
(%, %p)
5,500
14,000
16
5,300
13,800
12
5,100
13,600
8
4,900
13,400
4
Absolute
11.1
1.4
0.3 4,700
13,200
0
4,500
13,000
-4
12,800
-8
0.1 -0.1
-0.3
4,300 12/5
1/2
1/30
2/27
1D
1W
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 23. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM)
Chart 24. Energy price
1 Day
((D-3M=100) 110
5 Days
400
-1.0
-6.6 1Y
1M
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
(USDmn) 500 451
Relative
CPO
WTI
Coal
105
300 225
100
200 95 100 0
9
3
0
4
90
-7 -100
-59
-74
-200 Korea
85
-49
-152 -144 Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines
80 India
Note: The latest figure for India are March 2nd, 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Copper
12/16
1/17
1/17
1/17
2/17
2/17
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 25. Non-ferrous metal price ((D-3M=100) 105
12/16
Chart 26. Precious metal price Nickel
Tin
Silver
Gold
Platinum
115
100
110
95
105
90
100
85
95
80
90
75
85
70
80 12/16
12/16
1/17
1/17
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
1/17
2/17
2/17
12/16
12/16
1/17
1/17
1/17
2/17
2/17
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
16 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Table. Key valuation metrics Price
Market Cap
(IDR)
(IDRbn)
1D
1W
1M
1Y
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
5,391
5,905,173
-0.3
0.1
0.6
11.3
15.6
13.6
2.3
2.1
17.9
14.0
BBCA BMRI BBRI BBNI BBTN
15,475 11,350 11,850 6,350 2,110
381,536 264,833 292,330 118,419 22,345
-0.2 0.2 0.0 2.0 -0.5
-0.2 2.3 -0.8 0.0 -1.9
0.0 2.5 -1.3 6.3 11.6
14.4 17.0 6.3 23.3 26.3
17.0 19.6 10.9 9.1 13.3
15.0 13.2 10.5 9.0 11.8
3.0 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.0
2.6 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.1
18.9 10.3 20.2 13.9 7.6
18.5 12.8 18.5 14.5 10.0
HMSP GGRM ICBP INDF
3,990 64,475 8,225 8,050
464,109 124,056 95,919 70,682
-2.4 -2.1 -0.3 0.3
1.8 -0.8 -1.2 -0.6
2.0 4.3 -2.7 2.2
-9.4 -2.3 3.0 9.2
35.1 16.3 23.8 15.9
31.8 14.3 21.4 14.0
12.8 2.8 4.9 2.2
11.8 2.5 4.4 2.0
37.0 17.8 21.5 13.8
38.4 18.0 21.8 14.7
69,610
0.7
-0.7
1.0
12.5
27.3
24.4
5.2
4.7
20.0
20.4
320,269
-0.3
-0.7
-0.1
-9.6
44.4
39.3
55.3
51.6
131.0
138.5
29,400 10,200
-0.3 -2.0
2.0 -0.3
-4.5 -5.1
7.6 3.8
14.8 20.0
15.5 13.3
1.9 1.6
1.7 1.2
14.1 7.9
11.0 9.6
1,400
13,335
-5.1
-6.7
-15.2
-29.5
19.0
15.2
3.3
2.9
17.5
18.8
EXCL
2,890
30,888
-0.7
-7.4
-0.3
-26.8
60.8
67.6
1.2
1.4
2.1
1.7
JSMR PGAS TBIG TLKM SOCI
4,680 2,830 5,000 3,850
33,967 68,603 22,657 388,080
-2.7 2.2 0.8 0.5
-3.7 -1.0 -7.4 0.3
9.9 -1.4 -2.4 -2.5
-13.5 7.8 -17.0 12.8
15.6 11.8 17.3 16.6
18.5 11.1 14.9 15.1
2.3 1.5 7.3 4.0
2.3 1.3 5.2 3.6
15.7 12.7 47.0 24.1
12.3 12.4 39.2 24.4
280
1,977
-3.4
1.4
-8.5
-41.5
3.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
11.3
N/A
GIAA
338
8,750
-0.6
0.0
-0.6
-21.9
21.0
14.8
2.5
2.3
11.8
15.1
Company Name
Ticker
Jakarta Composite Index FINANCIALS Bank Central Asia Bank Mandiri Persero Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Bank Tabungan Negara Persero CONSUMER HM Sampoerna Gudang Garam Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Indofood Sukses Makmur
JCI
Kalbe Farma
KLBF
1,485
Unilever Indonesia AGRICULTURAL
UNVR
41,975
Astra Agro Lestari PP London Sumatera Indonesia
AALI LSIP
15,275 1,495
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana
SSMS
INFRASTRUCTURE XL Axiata Jasa Marga Perusahaan Gas Negara Tower Bersama Infrastructure Telekomunikasi Indonesia Soechi Lines Garuda Indonesia
Price Performance (%)
P/E(X)*
P/B(X)*
ROE(%)*
BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia Charoen Pokphand Indonesia
SMGR CPIN
9,425 3,220
55,905 52,802
0.0 1.6
-1.6 -1.5
2.4 -0.3
-9.2 -7.7
12.0 15.5
14.1 12.9
1.9 3.1
1.8 2.6
16.3 21.2
13.2 21.5
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
INTP JPFA
15,500 1,710
57,059 19,512
0.6 0.3
-1.0 -2.6
0.8 0.0
-23.6 113.8
15.6 7.7
14.6 10.6
2.0 1.9
1.9 1.9
13.4 28.6
13.9 20.1
Indo Tambangraya Megah Adaro Energy
ITMG ADRO
17,525 1,685
19,802 53,896
-2.4 0.0
1.7 -0.9
10.9 -2.0
154.0 159.2
10.4 11.5
9.0 11.5
1.5 1.2
1.6 1.1
15.0 9.7
16.7 10.4
Aneka Tambang Vale Indonesia
ANTM INCO
755 2,520
18,143 25,040
-1.9 -1.6
-1.3 2.4
-9.0 -9.0
95.1 51.8
298.3 N/A
36.8 37.7
1.2 1.1
1.0 1.0
0.4 0.1
2.5 2.6
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam
PTBA
10,975
25,288
-2.0
-1.6
-6.6
91.7
9.1
8.7
2.0
1.8
21.5
20.9
TRADE United Tractors
UNTR
25,100
93,626
0.1
-1.6
9.1
63.5
15.8
15.7
1.9
2.1
12.7
13.7
AKR Corporindo
AKRA
6,200
24,749
-0.8
-8.5
-10.5
-20.5
19.3
16.8
3.2
2.9
17.4
17.8
Global Mediacom
BMTR
555
7,880
0.0
9.9
-7.5
-39.7
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Matahari Department Store
LPPF
13,100
38,225
1.4
-9.0
-13.4
-26.1
21.9
16.5
23.8
13.6
136.4
94.6
Media Nusantara Citra Matahari Putra Prima
MNCN MPPA
1,660 1,220
23,698 6,561
0.0 0.0
4.4 0.8
-2.4 -13.5
-12.9 -32.8
12.9 33.8
11.4 27.2
2.1 2.3
1.9 2.2
17.2 5.9
17.7 7.9
Surya Citra Media
SCMA
2,740
40,063
-5.2
-13.0
-7.1
-5.8
22.0
19.1
9.7
8.4
47.0
46.8
Siloam International Hospital PROPERTY
SILO
13,000
16,908
2.0
-5.5
5.9
67.7
150.3
108.5
6.5
6.1
4.1
5.3
Bumi Serpong Damai Adhi Karya
BSDE ADHI
1,765 2,190
33,970 7,798
-1.1 0.5
-7.1 0.5
-6.9 4.3
1.4 -15.9
14.0 23.6
12.8 12.3
1.5 1.4
1.3 1.2
10.6 5.9
10.8 10.7
Alam Sutera Realty
ASRI
366
7,192
-1.1
-3.2
-8.0
2.2
8.4
6.2
0.9
0.8
10.9
12.7
Ciputra Development Lippo Karawaci
CTRA LPKR
1,285 710
23,850 16,385
-1.5 -2.1
-6.9 -5.3
-6.9 -2.7
-2.4 -33.6
16.3 18.6
13.4 14.4
1.8 0.9
1.7 0.8
12.5 5.0
12.8 6.5
Pembangunan Perumahan Pakuwon Jati
PTPP PWON
3,540 560
21,948 26,969
-1.1 -2.6
0.6 -5.1
-4.6 -2.6
0.0 19.1
23.1 13.3
15.4 10.9
2.4 2.6
2.2 2.1
14.4 20.5
17.0 20.5
Summarecon Agung Wijaya Karya Waskita Karya
SMRA WIKA WSKT
1,380 2,480 2,410
19,909 22,245 32,713
0.4 -1.2 -1.2
-1.1 -0.8 -2.4
4.5 -0.4 -6.6
-15.3 9.3 26.2
39.1 14.4 17.3
30.2 18.2 14.6
3.0 1.8 3.1
2.8 1.8 2.0
7.6 12.9 16.6
9.6 11.5 16.2
ASII
8,400
340,062
-0.9
3.4
3.7
22.2
22.1
17.7
3.0
2.8
14.2
15.9
MINING
MISCELLANEOUS Astra International
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
17
March 6, 2017 Embun Pagi
Sector performance
Top 10 market cap performance
Name
Index
Agricultural Mining Basic-Industry Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Goods Property & Construction Infrastructure Finance Trade Composite
Chg (%)
1,838.1 1,429.8 562.3 1,416.6 2,393.7 508.0 1,060.2 830.0 857.4 5,391.2
Ticker -0.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.6 -0.3
Price
INAF IJ BUMI IJ KAEF IJ BFIN IJ SCBD IJ HRUM IJ DOID IJ RMBA IJ JKON IJ AGRO IJ
Market Cap (IDRbn) 2970 320 2040 4000 1600 2330 760 458 600 1060
Chg (%)
9,205 11,721 11,330 6,387 5,315 6,299 6,327 16,672 9,785 16,245
24.79 9.59 8.80 8.11 6.7 5.91 4.83 4.57 4.3 3.92
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers
Top 5 lagging movers
Name BBNI TLKM INAF PGAS BUMI
Chg (%) IJ IJ IJ IJ IJ
Close 2.0 0.5 24.8 2.2 9.6
Name 6,350 3,850 2,970 2,830 320
Chg (%)
HMSP IJ ASII IJ GGRM IJ SCMA IJ UNVR IJ
Close -2.4 -0.9 -2.1 -5.2 -0.3
3,990 8,400 64,475 2,740 41,975
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar Time 4:45am 7:00am 7:30am 7:30am 4:10pm 4:30pm 6:30pm 10:00pm
Currency NZD AUD AUD AUD EUR EUR GBP USD
Detail Building Consents m/m MI Inflation Gauge m/m Retail Sales m/m ANZ Job Advertisements m/m Retail PMI Sentix Investor Confidence MPC Member Hogg Speaks Factory Orders m/m
Forecast
Previous -7.2% 0.6% -0.1% 4.0% 50.1 17.4 1.3%
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (MASI). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of MASI and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of MASI, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither MASI, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. © PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 2016.
18 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia