MANAJEMEN PROYEK LANJUT Advance Project Management Dr. Ir. Budi Susetyo, MT Fakultas
TEKNIK Program Magister
SIPIL - MK
www.mercubuana.ac.id
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Bagian Isi 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
PM and Project financial management Money and time relationship Evaluasi proyek Analisis ketidakpastian dan resiko proyek Analisis financial proyek Perencanaan sumberdaya keuangan proyek Pengawasan dan pengendalian sumberdaya keuangan proyek UTS
8. Studi kasus project financial management 9. Studi kasus perhitungan money and time relationship 10. Studi kasus evaluasi proyek 11. Studi kasus evaluasi dan resiko proyek 12. Studi kasus cashflow proyek 13. Perencanaan cashflow proyek 14. Protap pengawasan dan pengendalian proyek UAS
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St di Kasus Studi K E l i Proyek Evaluasi P k
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Evaluasi Ekonomi Proyek
Pada bagian ini terkait studi kasus evaluasi proyek perlu diperhatikan tahapan atau langkah evaluasi ekonomi proyek sbb : • • • • • •
Secara umum perhatikan berbagai hal terkait rencana pengeluaran investasi Tentukan dan rencanakan horizon analisis ekonomi Perkirakan cash flow untuk setiap proyek yang akan di analisis Tentukan minimum tingkat pengembalian (Marginal Rate of Return) Tetapkan kriteria untuk menerima atau menolak suatu proposal proyek, atau kriteria memilih proposal terbaik dari proposal yang ada. Tunjukkan hasil analisis sensitivitas atau ketidakpastian suatu proyek (bila diperlukan sebagai pelengkap)
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Case 1. Example 1: Evaluation of Four Independent Projects The cash flow profiles of four independent projects are shown in Table 6-1. Using a MARR of 20%, determine the acceptability of each of the projects on the basis of the net present value criterion for accepting independent projects. TABLE 1 Cash Flow Profiles of Four Independent Projects (in $ million) t At,1 At,2 At,3 At,4 0 -77.0 -75.3 -39.9 18.0 1 0 28.0 28.0 10.0 2 0 28.0 28.0 -40.0 3 0 28.0 28.0 -60.0 4 0 28.0 30.0 28.0 5 235.0 28.0 50.0 -80.0
Case 1. Using i = 20%, we can compute NPV for x = 1, 2, 3, and 4 from Eq. (6.5). Then, the acceptability of each project can be determined from Eq. (6.6). Thus, [NPV1]20% = -77 + (235)(P|F, 20%, 5) = -77 + 94.4 = 17.4 [NPV2]20% = -75.3 + (28)(P|U, 20%, 5) = -75.3 + 83.7 = 8.4 [NPV3]20% = -39.9 + (28)(P|U, 20%, 4) - (80)(P|F, 20%, 5) = -39.9 + 72.5 - 32.2 = 0.4 [NPV4]20% = 18 + (10)(P|F, 20%, 1) - (40)(P|F, 20%, 2) - (60)(P|F, 20%, 3) + (30)(P|F, 20%, 4) + (50)(P|F, 20%, 5) = 18 + 8.3 - 27.8 - 34.7 + 14.5 + 20.1 = -1.6 Hence, the first three independent projects are acceptable, but the last project should be rejected. It is interesting to note that if the four projects are mutually exclusive, the net present value method can still be used to evaluate the projects and, according to Eq. (6.7), the project (x = 1) which has the highest positive NPV should be selected. The use of the net equivalent uniform annual value or the net future value method will lead to the same conclusion. However, the project with the highest benefitcost ratio is not necessarily the best choice among a group of mutually exclusive alternatives. Furthermore, the conventional internal rate of return method cannot be used to make a meaningful evaluation of these projects as the IRR for both x=1 and x=2 are found to be 25% while multiple values of IRR exist for both the x=3 and x=4 alternatives.
Case 2. Example 2: Effects of Taxes on Investment A company plans to invest $55,000 in a piece of equipment which is expected to produce a uniform annual net revenue before tax of $15,000 over the next five years. The equipment has a salvage value of $5,000 at the end of 5 years and the depreciation allowance is computed on the basis of the straight line depreciation method. The marginal income tax rate for this company is 34%, and there is no expectation of inflation. If the after-tax MARR specified by the company is 8%, determine whether the proposed investment is worthwhile, assuming that the investment will be financed by internal funds. U i Equations, Using E ti (the (th after-tax ft t cash h flow fl can b be computed t d as shown h iin T Table bl 2. 2 Then, Th the th net present value discounted at 8% is obtained from Equation as follows:
The positive result indicates that the project is worthwhile.
Case 2.
Year t 0 1-5 each 5 only
TABLE 2 After-Tax Cash Flow Computation Before-tax Straight-line Taxable Income Tax Cash Flow Depreciation Income Xt(At-Dt) At Dt At-Dt $55,000 , -$ + $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $1,700 + $5,000
After-Tax -$ $55,000 , + $13,300 + $5,000
Case 3. Example 3: Effects of Inflation Suppose that, in the previous example, the inflation expectation is 5% per year, and the after-tax MARR specified by the company is 8% excluding inflation. Determine whether the investment is worthwhile. In this case, the before-tax cash flow At in terms of constant dollars at base year 0 is inflated at j = 5% to then-current dollars A't for the computation of the taxable income (A't - Dt) and income taxes. The resulting after-tax flow Y't in terms of then-current dollars is converted back to constant dollars. That is, for Xt = 34% and Dt = $10,000. The annual depreciation charges Dt are not inflated to current dollars in conformity with the practice recommended by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. Thus: A't = At(1 + j)t = At(1 + 0.05)t Y't = A't - Xt(A't - Dt) = A't - (34%)(A't - $10,000) Yt = Y't(1 + j)t = Y't(1 + 0.05)t The detailed computation of the after-tax cash flow is recorded in Table 6-3. The net present value discounted at 8% excluding inflation is obtained by substituting Yt for At in Eq. Hence, [NPV]8%) = -55,000 + (13,138)(P|F, 8%, 1) + (12,985)(P|F, 8%, 2) + (12,837)(P|F, 8%, 3) + (12,697)(P|F, 8%, 4) + (12,564 + 5,000)(P|F, 8%, 5) = -$227 With 5% inflation, the investment is no longer worthwhile because the value of the depreciation tax deduction is not increased to match the inflation rate.
Case 3.
Time t 0 1 2 3 4 5 5
Constant $ B-Tax CF At -$55,000 +15 000 +15,000 +15,000 +15,000 +15,000 +15,000 +5,000
TABLE 3 After-Tax Cash Flow Including Inflation Current $ after Current $ Current $ depreciation depreciation Current $ Current $ Constant $ B-Tax CF income tax A-Tax CF A-Tax CF A't Xt(A't-Dt) Yt Y't A't-Dt Dt +$55,000 -$55,000 -$55,000 +15 750 +15,750 $10 000 $10,000 $5 750 $5,750 $1 955 $1,955 +13 795 +13,795 +13 138 +13,138 16,540 10,000 6,540 2,224 +14,316 +12,985 17,365 10,000 7,365 2,504 +14,861 +12,837 18,233 10,000 8,233 2,799 +15,434 +12,697 19,145 10,000 9,145 3,109 +16,036 +12,564 +5,000
Note: B-Tax CF refers to Before-Tax Cash Flow; A-Tax CF refers to After-Tax Cash Flow
Pustaka 1. Hendricson, Project Management for Construction, Web Version, 2003 2. Zulkarnain Djamin, Perencanaan dan Analisa Proyek, Universitas Indonesia, 1984
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