WEEKLY REPORT
D E B T RESEARCH
15 OCTOBER 2014
Key Market Indicators as of 14-Oct-14 BI Rate JCI Index IDR Inflation(y-o-y) - Sep-14 Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov't Bonds as of 10-Oct-14 Corp Bonds as of 13-Oct-14 Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds Corporate Bonds Benchmark Yield as of 14-Oct-14 FR0069 (5 year) FR0070 (10 year) FR0071 (15 year) FR0068 (20 year) Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM
BB+ Baa3 BBB-
7.50% 4,923 12,206 4.53%
Impact of Front-loading strategy As of 14 October 2014, realized government bond issuances had reached IDR398.5 trillion (92.72% of total gross issuance), or IDR272.84 trillion after buyback, debt switch and maturing securities (102.97% of total nett issuance). The front-loading strategy implemented by the government during the year meant that the auction’s target in 4Q14 was lower than in 3Q14. The total target for issuances in the final quarter of the year was IDR24.78 trillion, or down by IDR70.8 trillion from 3Q14’s IDR95.66 trillion. The decline in the target for issuances may potentially create buying pressure in the secondary market due to limited supply.
IDR 1,204.7tn IDR 218.9tn
IDR 48.29tn IDR 2.72tn
Total Incoming Bid Total Covered by the Government Bid to Cover Ratio RHS)
120 100
8.063% 8.256% 8.664% 8.758%
Government Bonds Indices as of 14-Oct-14 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) 121.91 Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 8.41% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) 397.66
21-Oct-14 China GDP Constant Price YoY (Survey : 7.2%; Revised : 7.5%)
Analysts Rifki Rizal 3509888 ext 3404
[email protected] Amir A. Dalimunthe 3509888 ext.3405
[email protected]
Please read important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.com
2 1.95 1.9 1.85
80
1.8
60
1.75 1.7
40
1.65
20
1.6 1.55
0 FR0069
FR0070
Source: MoF, Danareksa Estimates Calendar of Event 16-Oct-14 US Initital Jobless Claim (Survey : 290K; Prior : 287K)
Efek Strategi Front Loading Per 14 Oktober 2014, realisasi penerbitan obligasi Pemerintah telah mencapai IDR398.5 triliun (92,72% dari target gross issuance), atau sebesar IDR272,84 triliun setelah dikurangi buyback, debt switch dan jatuh tempo (102.97% dari total target net issuance). Strategi front loading yang diterapkan Pemerintah selama tahun ini menyebabkan target penerbitan lelang SBN di 4Q14 mengalami penurunan jika dibandingkan dengan periode 3Q14. Target penerbitan lelang di kuartal akhir tahun ini sebesar IDR24,78 triliun, turun IDR70,8 triliun dari target penerbitan selama 3Q14 yang mencapai IDR95,66 triliun. Penurunan target penerbitan tersebut berpotensi untuk mendorong tekanan beli karena supply yang semakin terbatas.
Bid-to-Cover Ratio for SUN Auction
IDR Trillion
Indonesia FCLT Rating S&P Moody's Fitch
Limited Supply
FR0071
FR0068
YTD as of 14 October 2014
Potential supply in the final quarter At the auction on 14 October 2014, the government absorbed IDR12 trillion of the total incoming bids reaching IDR32.85 trillion (or resulting in a bid-tocover ratio of 2.74 times). In terms of nominal, FR0070 received the highest amount of incoming bids of IDR8.4 trillion with a bid-to-cover ratio of 6.46 times. Meanwhile, the lowest amount of incoming bids of IDR1.76 trillion was for FR0067.
Potensi Supply di Kuartal Akhir Pada lelang per 14 Oktober 2014, pemerintah menyerap IDR12 triliun dari total penawaran yang masuk sebesar IDR32,85 triliun (bid-to-cover ratio 2,74 kali). Secara nominal, penawaran tertinggi yang masuk terjadi untuk seri FR0070 sebesar IDR8,4 triliun dengan bid–to-cover ratio mencapai 6,46 kali. Sementara itu, FR067 menjadi seri dengan total penawaran terendah yaitu sebesar IDR1,76 triliun.
During the 4th quarter of 2014, total issuances of government bonds at auctions had reached IDR13.51 trillion. This left a target of IDR11.28 trillion that must be fulfilled by the end of the year. There are 4 auctions in the remainder of the year which comprise of 2 auctions for each SUN and SBSN series. Comparing the amount absorbed at the SUN and SBSN auctions, the government is expected to need to obtain IDR5.2 trillion and IDR440 billion at each SUN and SBSN auction, respectively.
Selama kuartal 4 tahun 2014, total penerbitan lelang SBN telah mencapai IDR13,51 triliun dan masih menyisakan target sebesar IDR11,28 triliun yang harus dipenuhi hingga akhir tahun. Terdapat 4 kali penerbitan di sisa tahun 2014 yang terbagi menjadi 2 lelang SUN dan 2 Lelang SBSN. Berdasarkan perbandingan jumlah penerimaan pada lelang SUN dan SBSN, pemerintah diperkirakan harus menyerap IDR5,2 triliun pada setiap lelang SUN dan IDR440 miliar untuk lelang SBSN.
13 - 17 October 2014
WEEKLY REPORT
MACROECONOMICS CONDITION
Portfolio Adjustment by Foreign Investors Danareksa’s IDR Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) declined slightly over the week. The yield index ended the week at 8.49%, or down from 8.58% at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, the rupiah/USD exchange rate weakened by 0.36% from IDR12,178 per USD (3/10) to IDR12,222 per USD (10/10). The sideways trend of the rupiah was accompanied by a decline in foreign holdings of government bonds last week. Foreign investors reduced their holdings by IDR1.59 trillion to IDR441.8 trillion (36.67% of the total amount outstanding). Although the weakening rupiah trend has started to ease and volatility has come down, the issue concerning possible hikes in subsidized fuel prices this quarter could put further pressure on the rupiah.
Danareksa IDR Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) selama minggu lalu mengalami penurunan walaupun tidak signifikan. Yield index menutup minggu di level 8,49% setelah berada di level 8,58% pada awal minggu. Di sisi lain, nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS melemah 0,36% dari IDR12.178 per USD (3/10) menjadi IDR12.222 per USD (10/10). Tren sideways yang ditunjukkan oleh nilai tukar diikuti juga oleh penurunan kepemilikan asing di obligasi Pemerintah selama minggu lalu. Investor asing mengurangi kepemilikannya sebesar IDR1,59 triliun menjadi IDR441,8 triliun atau 36,67% dari total outstanding. Walaupun tren pelemahan Rupiah mulai melambat dan tingkat volatilitas mulai mereda, namun isu kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi bisa mendorong Rupiah kembali ke zona merah.
Yield Index
CDS 5-Year (bps) 10.0%
225
9.0%
200
8.0%
175
7.0%
150
6.0%
125
5.0%
100
4.0%
BI Rate
Indonesia
YoY Inflation
Gov't Bonds Ownership
13-Oct-14
19-Sep-14 25-Sep-14 1-Oct-14 7-Oct-14
22-Aug-14 28-Aug-14 3-Sep-14 9-Sep-14 15-Sep-14
Brazil
Turkey
Rupiah closed at Rp12,206 per USD 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
12,250 12,150 12,050
14-Jul-14 17-Jul-14 22-Jul-14 25-Jul-14 6-Aug-14 11-Aug-14 14-Aug-14 19-Aug-14 22-Aug-14 27-Aug-14 1-Sep-14 4-Sep-14 9-Sep-14 12-Sep-14 17-Sep-14 22-Sep-14 25-Sep-14 30-Sep-14 3-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 BI (RHS)
Domestic Bank
11,950 11,850 11,750 11,650 11,550 11,450
Foreign Investors
17-Jul-14 22-Jul-14 25-Jul-14 6-Aug-14 11-Aug-14 14-Aug-14 19-Aug-14 22-Aug-14 27-Aug-14 1-Sep-14 4-Sep-14 9-Sep-14 12-Sep-14 17-Sep-14 22-Sep-14 25-Sep-14 30-Sep-14 3-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 13-Oct-14
470 450 430 410 390 370 350 330 310 290 270
IDR trillion
IDR trillion
Philipinnes
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg
RR-BI (RHS)
24-Jul-14 6-Aug-14 12-Aug-14 18-Aug-14
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Yield Index
1-Jul-14 7-Jul-14 14-Jul-14 18-Jul-14
25-Jun-14
75
3.0%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Ministry of Finance Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor
Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector
800 Others 24.0%
700
Financial Company 22.0%
IDR Billion
600 500 400 Fertilizer 10.1%
300 200 100 0 0
Source: IDX Process Data
1
2 3 Term to Maturity
4
5
6
Consumer Goods 11.3%
Banking 18.1%
Property & Construction 14.5%
Source: IDX Process Data 2
13 - 17 October 2014
WEEKLY REPORT
GOVERNMENT BONDS REVIEW
Required Risk Premium Increased The 10-year sovereign risk premium reached a 5-month high of 203bps on 8 October 2014 after starting to increase in mid-September 2014. Meanwhile, the upward trend in INDON and SUN yields meant that the 10-year currency risk premium tended to move sideways. The increase in the risk premium reflects heightened investor concerns over the likelihood of imminent hikes in subsidized fuel prices.
Sovereign risk premium 10-tahun yang mulai meningkat sejak pertengahan September 2014 mencatatkan level tertingginya selama 5 bulan terakhir pada 8 Oktober 2014 sebesar 203bps. Sementara itu, tren peningkatan yield INDON dan SUN 10-tahun menyebabkan currency risk premium 10-tahun cenderung bergerak mendatar. Naiknya risk premium mengindikasikan ekspektasi investor terhadap peningkatan risiko akibat isu kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi di kuartal ini.
Spread INDON 10 year Over UST 10 year
Spread IDR Gov't Bond 10 year over INDON 10 year
2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 27-Sep-13 17-Oct-13 6-Nov-13 26-Nov-13 16-Dec-13 5-Jan-14 25-Jan-14 14-Feb-14 6-Mar-14 26-Mar-14 15-Apr-14 5-May-14 25-May-14 14-Jun-14 4-Jul-14 24-Jul-14 13-Aug-14 2-Sep-14 22-Sep-14 12-Oct-14
1.50%
Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)
UST 10Y
9.5%
4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.25%
8.5% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 27-Sep-13 15-Oct-13 2-Nov-13 20-Nov-13 8-Dec-13 26-Dec-13 13-Jan-14 31-Jan-14 18-Feb-14 8-Mar-14 26-Mar-14 13-Apr-14 1-May-14 19-May-14 6-Jun-14 24-Jun-14 12-Jul-14 30-Jul-14 17-Aug-14 4-Sep-14 22-Sep-14 10-Oct-14
6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5%
2.75%
INDON 10Y
Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)
INDON 10Y
SUN 10Y
Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate
Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate
Gov't Bonds Benchmark Series Yield
Daily Trading Volume 10.0%
Govt Short
Govt Med
Govt Long
Corp
9.5%
30 25
9.0%
15
8.0%
10-Oct14
9-Oct-14
30-Sep14
29-Sep14
Source: IDX processed data
Source: Bloomberg
Yield Curve Change from 3 to 10 October 2014
Yield Curve Comparison as of 13 October 2014 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
8-Oct-14
0 7-Oct-14
6.5% 6-Oct-14
5 3-Oct-14
7.0% 2-Oct-14
10
1-Oct-14
7.5%
13-Oct-14
3-Sep-14
23-Sep-14
18-Jul-14
14-Aug-14
27-Jun-14
16-May-…
FR0070 - 10Y FR0068 - 20Y 9-Jun-14
24-Apr-14
2-Apr-14
20-Feb-14
12-Mar-14
9-Jan-14
30-Jan-14
16-Dec-13
6-Nov-13
26-Nov-13
16-Oct-13
FR0069 - 5Y FR0071 - 15Y
IDR trillion
20
8.5%
8.19%
8.51%
8.96%
9.15%
5.08%
5.32%
5.55%
2.54%
2.77%
8.78%
0.00% 0
2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
-0.02% 4.65%
-0.04%
3.67% 2.31%
3.03% -0.06%
1.55%
-0.08% 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-0.10%
Term to Maturity UST YC
GoI USD Yield Curve
Source: www.ustreas.gov, Danareksa Estimate
GoI IDR Yield Curve
-0.12%
Term to Maturity
Source: Danareksa Estimate
3
13 - 17 October 2014
WEEKLY REPORT
APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 6 - 10 October 2014 Last Trade Date 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14
Bonds FR0026 ORI008 SPN12141107 SPNS07112014 SPNS04122014 SPNS02012015 SPN12150108 SPN03140506 SPN12150305 VR0020 SPN12150501 SPN12150611 FR0027 SPN12150710 IFR0001 SPN12150903 SR004 ORI009 SR005 FR0030 FR0055 ORI010 VR0023 IFR0005 SR006 FR0060 FR0028 VR0025 FR0066 FR0032 FR0038 FR0048 FR0069 FR0036 VR0031 PBS006 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0035 FR0043 FR0063 FR0070 FR0044 IFR0007 FR0040 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0064 FR0071 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058
Maturity Coupon 15-Oct-14 15-Oct-14 7-Nov-14 7-Nov-14 4-Dec-14 2-Jan-15 8-Jan-15 6-Feb-15 5-Mar-15 25-Apr-15 1-May-15 11-Jun-15 15-Jun-15 10-Jul-15 15-Aug-15 3-Sep-15 21-Sep-15 15-Oct-15 27-Feb-16 15-May-16 15-Sep-16 15-Oct-16 25-Oct-16 15-Jan-17 5-Mar-17 15-Apr-17 15-Jul-17 25-Sep-17 15-May-18 15-Jul-18 15-Aug-18 15-Sep-18 15-Apr-19 15-Sep-19 25-Jul-20 15-Sep-20 15-Nov-20 15-Jun-21 15-Jul-21 15-May-22 15-Jun-22 15-Jul-22 15-May-23 15-Mar-24 15-Sep-24 15-Jan-25 15-Sep-25 15-Sep-26 15-May-27 15-Jul-27 15-Feb-28 15-May-28 15-Mar-29 15-Aug-30 15-Jul-31 15-Jun-32
11.00 7.95 4.81 9.50 11.80 6.25 6.25 6.00 10.75 7.38 8.50 4.81 9.00 8.75 6.25 10.00 3.75 5.25 15.00 11.60 5.19 7.88 11.50 4.81 8.25 11.00 12.80 8.25 7.00 12.90 10.25 5.63 8.38 10.00 10.25 11.00 8.38 7.00 10.25 10.00 6.13 9.00 10.50 9.50 8.25
Tenor 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.14 0.21 0.23 0.31 0.39 0.53 0.54 0.66 0.67 0.74 0.83 0.88 0.93 1.00 1.37 1.58 1.92 2.00 2.03 2.25 2.39 2.50 2.75 2.94 3.58 3.75 3.83 3.92 4.50 4.92 5.78 5.92 6.08 6.67 6.75 7.58 7.67 7.75 8.58 9.42 9.92 10.25 10.92 11.92 12.58 12.75 13.33 13.58 14.42 15.83 16.75 17.67
Last Done Price 100.03 100.00 99.59 99.61 99.17 98.79 98.54 97.96 97.58 100.00 96.55 95.90 101.50 94.57 103.55 94.03 98.20 98.20 97.25 105.55 99.79 100.83 98.23 101.54 100.70 96.85 105.20 98.02 91.30 122.15 111.45 103.03 99.28 114.50 98.00 100.40 112.25 122.70 99.50 92.50 124.50 110.00 83.51 100.29 110.75 110.60 117.00 98.30 86.00 111.45 109.00 78.50 102.35 114.75 105.80 94.50
Freq 1.00 16.00 4.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 10.00 6.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 9.00 15.00 17.00 6.00 11.00 74.00 1.00 2.00 33.00 7.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 30.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 6.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 37.00 2.00 7.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 29.00 1.00 4.00 15.00
Vol (IDR Bn) 177.00 110.02 177.72 8.00 49.00 104.99 634.30 1,483.72 2.00 1,069.00 50.22 180.00 657.00 340.00 2.00 350.00 224.48 304.48 735.49 539.00 111.62 307.30 120.00 2.31 17,236.34 1,317.54 165.31 100.00 430.03 26.00 109.00 20.00 2,248.87 30.95 110.00 60.00 718.64 1,847.53 854.55 170.23 8.13 20.00 350.91 4,825.07 114.90 25.00 18.99 71.68 336.05 1.00 15.80 106.60 2,560.15 22.32 33.93 420.26
Yield 8.35 7.95 0.42 0.39 0.84 1.23 1.48 2.09 2.48 4.81 3.58 4.27 7.17 5.74 7.42 6.34 6.36 6.36 6.17 7.01 7.49 8.43 4.90 8.23 8.69 7.65 7.86 3.83 8.08 8.06 8.07 8.08 8.07 7.89 4.91 8.16 8.39 8.30 8.34 8.35 8.49 8.46 8.35 8.33 8.38 8.67 8.57 8.60 8.87 8.74 8.84 8.88 8.71 8.76 8.83 8.87
Tenor Class < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr
Modified Duration 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.14 0.22 0.23 0.31 0.39 0.53 0.55 0.66 0.67 0.74 0.84 0.89 0.94 1.00 1.37 1.59 1.92 2.00 2.03 2.25 2.39 2.50 2.75 2.95 3.59 3.75 3.84 3.92 4.50 4.92 5.78 5.92 6.09 6.67 6.75 7.59 7.67 7.75 8.59 9.42 9.92 10.25 10.92 11.92 12.59 12.75 13.34 13.59 14.42 15.84 16.75 17.67
Source: Danareksa, BEI
4
13 - 17 October 2014
WEEKLY REPORT
APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 6 - 10 October 2014(Cont'd) Last Trade Date 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 7-Oct-14
Bonds FR0065 FR0068 FR0057 FR0062 PBS005 FR0067
Maturity Coupon 15-May-33 15-Mar-34 15-May-41 15-Apr-42 15-Apr-43 15-Feb-44
6.63 8.38 9.50 6.38 6.75 8.75
Tenor 18.58 19.42 26.58 27.50 28.50 29.33
Last Done Price 78.25 95.70 103.40 71.00 74.78 95.75
Freq 14.00 72.00 1.00 3.00 2.00 2.00
Vol (IDR Bn) 123.51 5,934.84 45.00 29.92 9.00 40.41
Yield 9.06 8.84 9.16 9.32 9.28 9.17
Tenor Class > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr
Modified Duration 18.59 19.42 26.59 27.50 28.50 29.34
Source: Danareksa, BEI
5
13 - 17 October 2014
WEEKLY REPORT
APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 6 - 10 October 2014 Last Trade Date 10-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 9-Oct-14
Bonds CFIN03C PPLN07 SDRA01B PPKT02 ASDF02ACN2 BNII01ACN1 ADMF01BCN1 BEXI01ACN1 SMFP01CCN1 TBIG01ACN1 BNGA01A SANF02C ASDF01BCN1 ASDF12D SMADMF01BCN1 WOMF05D FIFA01ACN3 BCAF01ACN3 ISAT06B ASDF02ACN3 FIFA01CCN1 SMFP01BCN2 IMFI01BCN1 TAFS02B IMFI04C IMAT01B WOMF01ACN1 TRAC02C TRAC03C BEXI05C PPLN12A ADMF01BCN3 PNBN05 BEXI01BCN2 BDMN02B BTPN03B DNRK01ACN1 BIMF01B NISP01CCN1 BFIN01CCN2 SMADMF01CCN1 FIFA01BCN2 SMKBSSB01 BCAF01BCN2 BEXI04D PPLN08C JSMR01BCN1S FAST01 BNGA01BCN2 ASDF02BCN2 ISAT07B BMRI01 ADMF01CCN1 VRNA01ACN2 JPFA01CN1 PPGD01CCN2 ASDF01CCN1 PRTL01 FIFA01BCN3 SMFP02BCN3
Maturity Coupon 8-Nov-14 11-Nov-14 1-Dec-14 4-Dec-14 6-Dec-14 6-Dec-14 16-Dec-14 20-Dec-14 21-Dec-14 22-Dec-14 23-Dec-14 20-Jan-15 21-Feb-15 25-Feb-15 1-Mar-15 4-Mar-15 24-Mar-15 7-Apr-15 9-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 20-Apr-15 25-Apr-15 11-May-15 5-Jun-15 9-Jun-15 19-Jun-15 5-Jul-15 5-Jul-15 5-Jul-15 8-Jul-15 8-Jul-15 27-Sep-15 9-Nov-15 27-Nov-15 9-Dec-15 22-Dec-15 9-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 19-Feb-16 19-Feb-16 1-Mar-16 4-Apr-16 12-May-16 14-Jun-16 18-Jun-16 21-Jun-16 27-Sep-16 6-Oct-16 20-Nov-16 26-Nov-16 8-Dec-16 11-Dec-16 16-Dec-16 24-Dec-16 12-Jan-17 14-Feb-17 21-Feb-17 28-Feb-17 14-Mar-17 27-Mar-17
10.25 12.25 11.75 10.75 8.75 7.75 8.00 7.00 8.48 9.00 7.38 8.40 8.00 10.00 7.30 11.00 9.60 9.00 10.80 9.60 7.65 7.35 8.00 7.50 10.65 8.40 10.25 10.20 8.30 9.60 9.70 7.75 9.00 6.50 9.00 9.20 8.20 11.65 7.40 9.00 7.85 7.75 72.50 7.50 12.75 13.60 8.70 9.50 9.15 9.50 11.75 11.85 9.00 11.84 9.90 7.50 8.60 10.50 10.50 10.00
Tenor
Rating
0.06 0.07 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.26 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.44 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.51 0.53 0.57 0.64 0.65 0.68 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.95 1.07 1.12 1.15 1.19 1.23 1.23 1.34 1.34 1.38 1.47 1.58 1.66 1.68 1.68 1.95 1.98 2.10 2.11 2.15 2.16 2.17 2.19 2.24 2.33 2.35 2.37 2.41 2.45
idA+ idAA+ idBBB+ AAidAA+/AAA(idn) AAA(idn) idAA+ idAAA AA(idn) AA-(idn) idAAA idAAidAA+ idAA idAA+(sy) AA(idn) idAA+ idAAA idAA+ AAA(Idn) idAA+ AA(idn) idA idAA/AAA(idn) idA idA AA(idn) idA+ idA+ idAAA idAA+ idAA+ idAA/AA(idn) idAAA idAA+ AA-(idn) idA [Idr]BBB idAAA/AAA(idn) A+(idn) idAA+(sy) idAA+/AAA(idn) idA idAA+/AAA(idn) AAA idAA+(sy) idAA idAA idAAA idAA+/AAA(idn) AA+ AA+ idAA+ idA idA idAA+ idAA+ AA-(idn) idAA+ idAA+
Last Done Price 99.90 100.25 100.05 95.00 100.07 100.00 100.00 99.75 101.65 99.92 99.00 99.70 100.00 100.75 99.25 100.38 100.00 100.45 100.55 100.55 99.20 99.10 98.85 100.00 100.02 97.87 100.00 100.25 99.22 101.04 100.65 99.40 101.10 97.15 99.99 99.46 89.00 100.00 97.77 97.82 97.35 96.30 99.75 96.96 105.65 107.40 97.35 100.06 99.32 99.02 100.50 95.00 97.17 99.50 99.90 94.00 97.60 100.75 99.00 100.60
Freq 3.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 3.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 7.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 4.00 3.00 1.00 3.00 2.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 4.00 1.00 4.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 5.00 1.00 3.00 3.00
Vol (IDR Bn) 15.10 1.00 4.00 154.00 80.00 20.00 11.00 2.00 0.50 110.00 1.50 2.80 5.00 2.80 6.00 1.00 15.00 5.00 14.00 4.40 45.00 2.30 4.00 5.00 1.00 2.33 2.00 98.00 3.00 5.00 3.00 48.00 48.00 5.00 40.00 2.00 12.00 15.00 24.00 24.00 1.00 26.10 1.00 1.00 18.00 2.00 40.00 9.00 24.00 32.00 67.00 24.00 20.00 0.50 36.00 4.00 8.43 0.10 20.20 30.00
Yield 10.26 12.22 11.74 11.32 8.74 7.75 8.00 7.02 8.34 9.01 7.45 8.43 8.00 9.93 7.36 10.96 9.60 8.96 10.74 9.55 7.71 7.42 8.09 7.50 10.65 8.58 10.25 10.17 8.37 9.50 9.64 7.80 7.93 9.17 9.00 9.68 18.26 11.65 9.15 10.73 10.46 9.47 9.11 8.88 10.20 9.47 9.50 10.01 11.48 14.57 10.46 12.10 9.95 10.40 9.74 10.14 10.97 9.72
Modified Duration 0.08 0.09 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.27 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.44 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.57 0.63 0.63 0.67 0.71 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.70 0.93 1.01 1.07 1.09 1.12 1.14 1.12 1.27 1.25 1.38 1.55 1.51 1.52 1.78 1.80 1.88 1.89 1.87 1.85 1.95 1.91 1.95 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.10 2.16
Source: Danareksa, BEI
6
13 - 17 October 2014
WEEKLY REPORT
APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading 6 - 10 October 2014(Cont'd) Last Trade Date 9-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 7-Oct-14 6-Oct-14 8-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 7-Oct-14
Bonds SMFP02BCN3 ASDF02BCN3 STTP01BCN1 SMFP01CCN2 SMKMYOR02 TUFI01ACN2 ISAT05B BEXI02CCN1 TUFI01BCN1 MEDC03 JMPD13R AMRT01CN1 ADHISM1CN1 BEXI05D BNGA01SB PIHC01A SIKPPLN01 APLN02 BNGA01BCN1 BNII01BCN2 SSIA01B PNBN04SB MAPI01BCN1 PNBN01CN1 AKRA01A PJAA02B ADMF02DCN1 MEDC01CN2 ADHISM1CN2 SIAISA01 BSDE01CN2 ROTI01CN1 APLN01CN1 JSMR01CCN1S SMRA01CN1 SISMRA01CN1 ANTM01ACN1 BEXI01CCN1 CTRR01B INDF07 ISAT08A PIHC01B JSMR01CN2T BNII01SBCN2 PNBN01SBCN1 AKRA01B ADHI01BCN2 MAYA03SB BNGA02SB PPLN12B BBMISMSB1CN2 SIKBLTA02B PPLN01BCN1
Maturity 27-Mar-17 4-Apr-17 8-Apr-17 25-Apr-17 9-May-17 23-May-17 29-May-17 5-Jun-17 5-Jun-17 19-Jun-17 21-Jun-17 26-Jun-17 3-Jul-17 8-Jul-17 8-Jul-17 8-Jul-17 10-Jul-17 15-Aug-17 30-Oct-17 31-Oct-17 6-Nov-17 9-Nov-17 12-Dec-17 20-Dec-17 21-Dec-17 27-Dec-17 1-Mar-18 15-Mar-18 15-Mar-18 5-Apr-18 5-Jun-18 11-Jun-18 27-Jun-18 27-Sep-18 11-Dec-18 11-Dec-18 14-Dec-18 20-Dec-18 2-Apr-19 13-Jun-19 27-Jun-19 8-Jul-19 19-Sep-19 31-Oct-19 20-Dec-19 21-Dec-19 15-Mar-20 5-Jul-20 23-Dec-20 8-Jul-22 28-Mar-23 31-Mar-23 5-Jul-23
Coupon 10.00 10.50 11.40 7.55 9.50 10.70 10.65 9.25 7.80 8.75 10.25 10.50 0.00 10.00 11.30 9.63 10.40 9.38 7.75 8.00 9.30 10.50 8.45 8.15 8.40 8.40 8.90 8.50 8.10 10.25 8.38 8.00 9.25 8.90 10.85 10.85 8.38 8.50 12.40 10.13 8.63 9.95 9.85 9.25 9.40 8.75 8.50 11.00 10.85 10.40 9.60 16.20 8.25
Tenor 2.45 2.47 2.48 2.53 2.57 2.61 2.62 2.64 2.64 2.68 2.68 2.70 2.72 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.74 2.83 3.04 3.04 3.06 3.07 3.16 3.18 3.18 3.20 3.38 3.42 3.42 3.47 3.64 3.66 3.70 3.95 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.18 4.46 4.66 4.70 4.73 4.93 5.04 5.18 5.18 5.42 5.72 6.19 7.73 8.45 8.46 8.72
Rating idAA+ AAA(Idn) idA AA(idn) idAA-(sy) idAA idAA+ idAAA idAA idAAidAA AA-(idn) idA(sy) idAAA AA(idn) AAA(Idn) idAA+(sy) idA IdAAA/AAA(idn) idAA+/AAA(idn) idA idAA-/A+(idn) idAAidAA idAAidAAidAA+ idAAidA(sy) idA-(sy) idAAidAAidA idAA idA+ idA+(sy) idAA idAAA A(idn) idAA+ idAA+ AAA(Idn) idAA idAA/AA(idn) idAAidAAidA idBBB+ AA(idn) idAA+ idA(sy) A idAAA
Modified Last Done Vol (IDR Yield Freq Duration Price Bn) 3.00 2.16 100.60 30.00 9.72 5.00 2.17 100.40 70.50 10.32 1.00 2.15 100.00 27.00 11.40 4.00 2.24 94.25 18.00 10.14 2.00 94.80 1.00 4.00 2.24 101.22 40.00 10.16 2.26 4.00 101.50 16.20 9.99 2.31 1.00 100.00 10.00 9.25 2.00 2.35 94.11 10.00 10.36 1.00 2.35 96.10 20.20 10.43 1.00 2.32 100.30 20.00 10.12 2.00 2.33 100.39 21.10 10.33 3.00 96.17 0.50 5.00 2.38 100.87 25.00 9.64 1.00 2.27 98.65 0.50 11.88 4.00 2.39 100.40 20.00 9.46 2.00 2.31 100.89 1.00 10.03 3.00 2.43 97.90 19.00 10.23 7.00 2.64 95.37 66.00 9.51 2.00 2.63 93.50 6.00 10.50 6.00 2.61 99.80 60.00 9.37 2.00 2.55 98.00 6.00 11.27 4.00 2.72 95.05 20.00 10.30 2.76 95.45 44.00 9.82 4.00 94.15 58.00 10.58 3.00 2.74 95.05 9.00 10.22 1.00 2.77 95.72 24.00 10.41 3.00 2.86 93.50 0.50 10.78 1.00 2.91 92.49 3.00 2.00 98.12 24.00 10.90 3.00 2.89 92.04 112.00 11.05 4.00 3.05 94.24 55.00 9.89 2.00 3.10 91.00 48.10 12.30 1.00 3.05 96.62 43.00 9.94 1.00 3.28 99.13 87.00 11.11 4.00 3.28 99.13 15.00 11.11 4.00 3.29 90.50 34.40 11.25 2.00 3.42 98.74 7.50 8.86 3.47 3.00 103.10 6.00 11.50 3.00 3.41 100.69 157.00 9.94 3.67 6.00 92.00 3.50 10.81 2.00 3.78 100.00 100.00 9.95 1.00 3.75 100.00 27.35 9.85 1.00 3.86 92.00 4.00 11.35 4.00 3.87 92.25 42.00 11.40 2.00 3.98 95.50 20.10 9.87 1.00 4.08 89.75 35.00 11.03 7.00 4.20 100.00 60.00 11.00 3.00 4.21 90.00 0.10 13.24 1.00 4.33 97.47 3.00 10.89 5.11 2.00 2.00 77.40 3.00 0.32 2.00 5.25 4.00 303.20 5.86 1.00 82.50 10.00 11.44
Source: Danareksa, BEI
7
13 - 17 October 2014
WEEKLY REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM
Debt Research Fax No.
Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet
[email protected]
(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1709
ext. 3400
Market Analyst Rifki Rizal
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ext. 3404
Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe
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ext. 3405
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ext. 3407
Ayesha Ardelia
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ext. 3406
Melissa Hartono
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ext. 3402
Debt Capital Market Division
Debt Capital Market Div. Fax No.
Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto
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Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D
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(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1724 / 25
ext. 3200
ext. 3223
Debt Trading & Investment Romi Mulyadi
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ext. 3213
Agung Suprihanto
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ext. 3212
Indra Figrachanda
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ext. 3214
Putrika Mayadipta
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Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo
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62 21) 3501088
Ariningtyas W. Agustina
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ext. 3224
Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy
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ext. 3216
Tia Aprianti
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ext. 3225 DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice
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