Lampiran 1 Hasil Regression Model GLS FIXED EFFECT (FEM)

LAMPIRAN Lampiran 1 Hasil Regression Model GLS FIXED EFFECT (FEM) Dependent Variable: BD? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights) Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:56 Sample: 2010 2013 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 31 Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123 Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix Variable

Coefficient

C PD? DAU? DBH? HCT? Fixed Effects (Cross) _NIAS—C _MANDAILINGN ATAL—C _TAPANULISELA TAN—C _TAPANULITENG AH—C _TAPANULIUTAR A—C _TOBASAMOSIR —C _LABUHANBATU —C _ASAHAN—C _SIMALUNGUN— C _KARO--C _DELISERDANG —C _LANGKAT--C _NIASSELATAN— C _HUMBANGHASU

2374930 0.000131 0.817756 0.000255 -0.000154

Std. Error t-Statistic

Prob.

502101.7 0.000221 0.043293 0.000325 0.000166

0.0000 0.5547 0.0000 0.4336 0.8180

4.729979 0.593043 18.88877 0.786636 0.550346

-171837.6 -101407.1 -94829.98 -83735.26 -75794.98 -89918.52 -42643.41 -43709.01 -38404.67 -109961.5 36377.45 -32776.77 -76305.28 2842841.

54

Universitas Sumatera Utara

NDUTAN—C _PAKPAKBHARA T--C _SAMOSIR--C _SERDANGBEDA GAI--C _BATUBARA--C _PALUTA--C _PADANGLAWAS --C _LABUSEL--C _NIASUTARA--C _NIASBARAT--C _SIBOLGA--C _TANJUNGBALAI --C _PEMATANGSIAN TAR--C _TEBINGTINGGI —C _MEDAN--C _BINJAI--C _PADANGSIDIMP UAN--C _GUNUNGSITOLI —C

-173300.2 -140975.5 -55033.10 -112732.5 -146209.1 -124410.1 -118058.5 242348.8 90555.25 -161204.0 -144033.9 -80663.66 -105055.4 234656.3 -93385.98 -126108.6 -193574.3 Effects Specification

Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.837531 0.981222 84901.09 188.5028 0.000000

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat

26222912 13091070 6.3472411 1.280043

Unweighted Statistics R-squared Sum squared resid

0.837531 1.962512

Mean dependent var Durbin-Watson stat

55

11858173 1.650102


Lampiran 2 Hasil Regression Model GLS RA

NDOM EFFECT (REM)

Dependent Variable: BD? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:57 Sample: 2010 2013 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 31 Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances Variable

Coefficient

C PD? DAU? DBH? HCT? Random Effects (Cross) _NIAS--C _MANDAILINGN ATAL--C _TAPANULISELA TAN--C _TAPANULITENG AH--C _TAPANULIUTAR A--C _TOBASAMOSIR-C _LABUHANBATU --C _ASAHAN--C _SIMALUNGUN-C _KARO--C _DELISERDANG-C _LANGKAT--C _NIASSELATAN-C _HUMBANGHASU NDUTAN--C

7626243. 0.000249 0.364733 0.001488 -0.986455

Std. Error

t-Statistic

1488222. 5.124400 0.000779 0.320349 0.127575 2.858961 0.000765 1.946003 0.000666 -0.230569

Prob. 0.0000 0.7493 0.0050 0.0540 0.5835

-267588.9 -63377.64 -92689.77 -100065.0 -59184.61 -126428.7 -48475.99 15704.55 89169.25 -153565.0 206031.6 95909.92 -102717.4 2720661.

56


_PAKPAKBHARA T--C _SAMOSIR--C _SERDANGBEDA GAI--C _BATUBARA--C _PALUTA--C _PADANGLAWAS --C _LABUSEL--C _NIASUTARA--C _NIASBARAT--C _SIBOLGA--C _TANJUNGBALAI --C _PEMATANGSIAN TAR--C _TEBINGTINGGI-C _MEDAN--C _BINJAI--C _PADANGSIDIMP UAN--C _GUNUNGSITOLI-C

-290221.1 -190415.7 -9710.769 -116924.7 -194176.9 -181936.6 -168134.9 89987.65 -169048.3 -228913.8 -218936.4 -85959.94 -169179.7 415758.9 -105080.8 -162031.5 -328459.0 Effects Specification S.D.

Cross-section random Idiosyncratic random

475482.2 135478.2

Rho 0.9249 0.0751

Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.986455 0.052692 140002.0 2.696494 0.034094

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat

1680071. 166729.1 2.314512 2.294726

Unweighted Statistics R-squared Sum squared resid

0.061503 2.893213

Mean dependent var Durbin-Watson stat

57

11858173 0.102324


Lampiran 3 Uji Hausman Test Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Pool: JULI Test cross-section random effects Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f.

Test Summary Cross-section random

5.255495

Prob.

4

0.2621

Random Var(Diff.)

Prob.

Cross-section random effects test comparisons: Variable PD? DAU? DBH? HCT?

Fixed

0.000472 0.000249 0.335622 0.364733 0.001600 0.001488 -0.000046 -0.986455

0.000000 0.001336 0.000000 0.000000

0.3359 0.4257 0.3625 0.2080

t-Statistic

Prob.

Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: BD? Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:58 Sample: 2010 2013 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 31 Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123 Variable

Coefficient

C PD? DAU? DBH? HCT?

7927723. 0.000472 0.335622 0.001600 -4.613205

Std. Error

1546083. 5.127618 0.000812 0.580813 0.132707 2.529036 0.000775 2.066215 0.000672 -0.068696

0.0000 0.5629 0.0132 0.0417 0.9454

Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression

0.987609 0.927367 135478.2

Mean dependent var 11858173 S.D. dependent var 502693.3 Akaike info criterion 26.70527

58


Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

1.622112 -1607.374 46.81418 0.000000

Schwarz criterion 27.50548 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.03031 Durbin-Watson stat 2.284726

Lampiran 4 Data Realisasi Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi (Milyar Rupiah) Kabupaten/Kota

2010

2011

2012

2013

Nias

23,946,293,045

18,943,904,322

30,531,670,978

44,726,140,940

Mandailing natal Tapanuli Selatan Tapanuli Tengah Tapanuli Utara Toba Samosir Labuhan Batu Asahan Simalungun Dairi Karo Deli Serdang Langkat Nias Selatan Humbang Hasundutan Pakpak Bharat Samosir Serdang Bedagai Batubara Padang Lawas Utara Padang Lawas Labuhanbatu Selatan Labuhanbatu Utara Nias Utara Nias Barat Silboga

11,825,857,863 30,496,787,001 13,371,779,335 15,433,009,546 11,988,553,566 38,532,205,269 25,982,186,358 45,255,604,121 19,835,722,474 39,594,659,822 120,537,227,592 31,357,008,434 10,276,243,224 10,007,220,641 4,533,364,577 11,813,219,103 22,093,187,209 9,270,392,493 5,317,205,097 12,262,144,676 8,371,926,407 11,890,474,728 1,905,120,946 958,747,799 15,118,409,482

27,525,847,376 57,463,805,226 18,209,682,593 36,063,155,708 14,117,728,012 50,958,558,912 31,844,327,602 42,543,353,964 17,673,471,407 35,372,329,911 213,791,544,828 34,540,642,904 23,030,719,094 12,870,031,745 6,306,028,983 14,201,578,951 35,894,399,483 13,240,860,819 8,728,414,451 7,628,252,033 17,081,271,911 10,518,250,179 6,655,233,082 2,761,470,685 21,663,389,950

29,821,669,770 56,160,143,106 21,136,802,117 34,023,120,252 16,542,682,535 59,439,168,712 37,894,587,647 61,246,499,256 20,911,510,364 41,242,973,174 291,017,501,163 129,242,580,780 15,592,080,806 17,901,926,972 6,353,111,715 17,459,630,442 39,274,569,799 16,558,177,253 12,798,137,843 9,881,176,851 18,976,643,017 18,971,116,518 8,990,037,382 5,460,766,342 26,698,353,730

47,261,409,409 69,220,483,496 23,210,742,292 37,954,419,651 19,803,160,418 49,784,550,240 53,691,705,753 97,914,775,900 29,933,428,377 46,342,693,861 328,348,147,362 65,521,499,189 32,087,688,050 17,632,873,685 9,080,676,936 26,661,345,261 50,371,732,819 27,761,999,043 15,804,225,377 23,140,067,441 26,701,972,210 25,651,299,857 8,857,118,964 7,223,690,778 29,457,629,416

59


Tanjung Balai Pematang Siantar Tebing Tinggi Medan Binjai Padang Sidempuan Gunung Sitoli

24,126,011,465 25,910,942,909 26,272,468,555 588,941,453,691 18,832,884,480 14,602,383,887 2,344,943,441

27,089,059,681 44,792,749,488 32,738,790,020 995,072,572,141 48,178,078,782 21,465,271,347 6,051,302,346

27,702,368,427 49,915,366,002 47,330,983,758 1,147,901,461,607 61,246,499,256 23,622,308,246 9,329,679,343

31,920,753,948 61,357,963,445 53,199,538,064 1,206,169,709,147 97,914,775,900 35,018,175,219 10,382,482,568

Lampiran 5 Data Realisasi Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera UtaraTahun 2010-2013 (Milyar Rupiah) Kabupaten/Kota

2010

2011

2012

2013

Nias Mandailing natal Tapanuli Selatan Tapanuli Tengah Tapanuli Utara Toba Samosir Labuhan Batu Asahan Simalungun Dairi Karo Deli Serdang Langkat Nias Selatan

265,217,573,360 398,482,296,000 334,737,772,000 313,957,675,000 369,275,117,000 280,449,853,000 315,309,299,000 479,299,307,000 644,610,865,000 336,864,702,000 441,302,317,000 793,141,685,000 655,701,432,800 277,887,323,000

265,217,572,360 455,393,393,000 375,893,846,000 343,731,494,000 405,822,524,429 310,252,416,000 367,737,566,342 523,561,849,000 696,225,292,000 372,373,356,825 441,566,566,000 888,557,245,000 736,887,815,640 318,920,943,000

289,608,144,000 541,106,638,000 454,322,254,000 422,611,672,000 487,345,532,000 387,623,169,000 461,644,282,000 628,974,980,000 865,405,855,000 451,176,116,000 546,294,802,000 1,100,013,616,000 847,503,037,000 378,605,613,000

336,470,399,000 625,543,432,000 517,342,688,000 491,010,818,000 552,463,211,000 423,292,453,000 520,457,519,000 733,671,988,000 977,808,611,000 512,477,041,000 625,822,348,000 1,260,755,135,000 982,658,132,000 422,944,097,000

Humbang Hasundutan

279,893,022,000

313,431,176,000

376,847,178,000

440,919,622,000

Pakpak Bharat Samosir Serdang Bedagai Batubara Padang Lawas Utara Padang Lawas Labuhanbatu Selatan

167,780,345,000 243,041,606,000 420,258,696,700 385,586,034,000 243,969,546,000 241,106,688,000 249,091,013,000

198,239,174,000 282,988,294,000 458,160,308,000 385,883,017,000 262,539,422,000 249,496,791,000 266,922,749,000

232,990,274,000 331,412,601,000 554,245,457,000 452,227,480,000 348,056,278,000 331,754,392,000 334,512,284,000

273,598,951,000 384,760,680,000 628,900,240,000 517,734,102,000 387,954,949,000 371,650,111,000 400,566,653,000

60


Labuhanbatu Utara Nias Utara Nias Barat Silboga Tanjung Balai Pematang Siantar Tebing Tinggi Medan Binjai Padang Sidempuan Gunung Sitoli

346,404,972,000 108,563,262,000 63,068,373,000 227,216,241,600 241,921,536,000 313,941,731,000 228,057,807,000 846,541,452,400 293,536,658,000 270,129,118,000 95,768,225,000

346,684,689,000 231,764,690,000 193,616,447,000 248,405,548,000 275,525,468,000 352,525,649,000 261,948,729,000 1,066,353,555,440 336,779,454,000 308,014,507,000 251,728,688,000

400,601,985,000 267,283,187,000 227,860,916,000 292,873,107,000 313,729,707,000 429,632,177,000 307,635,669,000 1,153,789,320,000 416,965,216,000 364,923,284,000 305,726,000,000

457,714,720,000 294,071,932,000 251,631,634,000 338,507,471,000 369,246,576,000 492,115,399,000 368,586,756,000 1,270,244,794,000 477,553,537,000 423,251,346,000 356,042,987,000

Lampiran 6 Data Realisasi Dana Bagi Hasil (DBH) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2013 (Milyar Rupiah) Kabupaten/Kota Nias Mandailing natal Tapanuli Selatan Tapanuli Tengah Tapanuli Utara Toba Samosir Labuhan Batu Asahan Simalungun Dairi Karo Deli Serdang Langkat Nias Selatan Humbang Hasundutan Pakpak Bharat Samosir Serdang Bedagai

2010 9,127,725,000 39,988,057,088 36,684,559,163 30,439,386,392 28,011,295,221 27,499,489,860 50,228,338,526 61,444,328,450 62,942,551,678 28,986,091,668 34,621,589,345 146,599,782,732 137,445,206,941 25,365,467,717 28,573,493,481 24,717,204,224 17,876,676,542 54,058,531,108

2011 11,547,453,198 35,651,324,849 30,544,942,672 25,666,732,395 25,788,562,258 18,543,976,862 46,785,533,114 54,953,826,235 58,432,376,141 27,204,216,088 31,448,670,465 108,270,209,250 137,812,564,561 26,600,297,158 29,155,800,194 23,524,648,198 15,653,056,028 48,610,349,587

61

2012 13,474,672,964 42,074,614,263 39,730,432,660 35,777,117,224 30,387,273,913 10,546,826,257 54,179,572,635 57,731,318,062 65,185,896,461 27,352,940,639 30,420,892,001 72,059,714,607 156,839,383,030 28,485,970,255 33,378,873,690 23,937,864,238 21,542,247,952 52,173,934,040

2013 13,934,683,321 38,094,758,481 39,793,149,268 29,538,847,747 29,306,489,918 29,934,067,111 50,834,309,647 65,080,516,468 60,525,757,122 26,543,641,065 30,126,517,887 305,271,905,329 169,455,342,253 25,297,106,389 27,314,424,449 23,253,685,387 22,829,863,294 45,267,322,786


Batubara

507,735,000

27,290,973,742

28,100,566,189

37,134,469,460

Padang Lawas Utara

30,532,402,764

30,498,573,419

30,861,970,15

29,970,451,785

Padang Lawas

34,172,459,655

27,196,358,400

36,519,005,068

40,194,093,790

Labuhanbatu Selatan

51,794,131,671

48,172,886,285

53,049,624,339

56,839,085,263

Labuhanbatu Utara

29,878,410,374

36,821,724,925

38,012,918,270

35,305,107,809

Nias Utara Nias Barat Silboga Tanjung Balai Pematang Siantar

272,478,401.003 8,641,413,627 21,459,790,766 18,617,690,893 28,893,910,180

11,053,337,908 9,607,603,929 19,786,320,335 16,617,286,882 26,289,467,326

14,677,083,049 13,679,975,385 21,271,435,914 18,834,267,833 36,446,552,650

12,634,625,175 9,931,903,187 20,314,797,636 20,662,436,176 26,225,847,040

Tebing Tinggi

25,179,049,935

19,998,085,793

24,897,504,525

22,603,350,544

Medan Binjai Padang Sidempuan Gunung Sitoli

374,026,589,767 334,604,231,426 26,428,984,994 12,694,065,859

274,493,581,754 39,788,887,998 23,994,089,924 10,622,292,350

197,098,179,192 41,334,651,724 32,822,219,830 4,435,726,739

174,054,636,586 33,599,444,362 25,797,109,529 13,248,308,888

Lampiran 7 Laju Perkembangan Belanja Daerah menurut Kabupaten/Kota dalam (Miliyar Rupiah) di Provinsi Sumatera Utara pada tahun 2010-2013 Kabupaten/Kota

2010

2011

2012

2013

Nias Mandailing natal Tapanuli Selatan Tapanuli Tengah Tapanuli Utara Toba Samosir Labuhanbatu Asahan Simalungun Dairi Karo

315,353,839,011 602,563,533,412 472,067,567,732 434,505,432,624 548,166,791,560 462,560,212,959 599,477,429,268 713,231,010,913 1,016,394,859,467 487,883,816,871 628,890,802,454

406,403,024,909 650,263,316,991 554,348,545,417 544,321,692,514 705,123,140,595 479,662,453,929 632,347,460,841 889,574,470,458 1,088,622,687,483 535,857,675,655 675,614,384,795

404,093,407,445 765,109,821,478 676,023,654,714 680,016,226,473 737,700,051,049 619,897,003,865 760,581,998,796 1,037,633,546,450 1,378,042,599,884 492,052,242,441 750,398,279,122

476,487,660,034 850,556,308,683 842,846,295,842 861,257,508,873 834,384,699,583 645,159,251,733 827,146,775,327 1,143,614,491,115 1,432,130,758,218 694,246,838,536 901,675,564,724

Deli Serdang

1,333,248,401,822

1,654,873,747,938

1,826,070,426,059

2,034,622,488,868

967,881,060,777

1,063,869,134,063

1,329,229,102,792

1,536,811,928,028

Langkat

62


Nias Selatan

465,251,237,439

479,421,889,590

621,171,486,118

669,036,597,703

Humbang Hasundutan Pakpak Bharat Samosir

393,014,475,016 231,573,004,143 367,805,497,569

432,517,402,736 318,568,754,148 431,142,832,097

511,537,853,879 296,781,857,912 415,012,206,460

605,789,787,843 381,852,026,957 522,227,935,549

Serdang Bedagai

666,468,396,241

731,773,294,426

833,559,067,726

982,962,075,740

Batubara

533,854,269,993

558,737,287,208

641,952,160,816

760,743,078,670

Padang Lawas Utara

304,464,356,527

416,234,576,099

571,471,637,184

588,852,483,907

Padang Lawas

380,148,424,392

416,234,576,099

439,833,949,611

504,166,349,741

Labuhanbatu Selatan

315,584,167,118

429,131,382,169

438,876,267,201

725,242,663,998

5,022,540,281

539,133,180,282

678,113,688,299

766,421,207,103

Nias Utara

1,396,620,675,600

1,749,848,684,724

335,400,739,586

Nias Barat

1,682,863,255,708

257,203,207,002

275,441,231,743

358,643,130,290

Silboga

291,699,218,349

368,638,103,891

414,040,749,412

450,894,422,402

Tanjungbalai

338,243,925,602

393,778,674,064

446,140,831,521

472,459,785,942

Pematangsiantar

499,631,564,449

564,819,922,154

639,607,159,845

741,073,062,641

Tebing Tinggi

315,430,692,624

439,094,659,348

479,585,196,047

584,572,435,995

2,235,195,758,724

3,041,037,853,628

3,021,172,391,041

3,224,449,048,408

418,220,391,835 356,260,243,037 136,058,576,418

546,497,391,346 463,524,730,418 343,828,336,582

650,087,241,200 527,246,070,030 401,324,408,976

702,167,562,649 614,899,498,099 442,554,279,556

Labuhanbatu Utara

Medan Binjai Padangsidimpuan Gunungsitoli

442,082,330,985

Lampiran 8 Data Realisasi Harfhindal Consentration Taxes Kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2013 (persen) Kabupaten/Kota Nias Mandailing natal Tapanuli Selatan Tapanuli Tengah Tapanuli Utara Toba Samosir Labuhanbatu Asahan

HCT 2010 44.54 21.14 20.09 5.79 12.47 21.04 19.83

HCT 2011 9.53 20.01 8.23 15.58 65.11 16.08 31.48 21.71

63

HCT 2012 44.63 41.15 12.92 3.07 25.12 3.77 22.83 21.55

HCT 2013 101 30.29 13.42 2.29 24.18 5.5 5.1 14.4


Simalungun Dairi Karo Deli Serdang Langkat Nias Selatan Humbang Hasundutan Pakpak Bharat Samosir Serdang Bedagai Batubara Padang Lawas Utara Padang Lawas Labuhanbatu Selatan Labuhanbatu Utara Nias Utara Nias Barat Silboga Tanjungbalai Pematangsiantar Tebing Tinggi Medan Binjai Padangsidimpuan Gunungsitoli

92.78 22.28 21.49 15.47 20.69 21.1 8.81 6.4 17.35 8.65 22.36 22.35 3.22 3.55 60.56 20.24 14.25 42.69 51.92 7.96 27.59 521

9.87 18.38 27.84 19.41 11.73 5.71 10.82 5.36 24.81 6.88 6.87 7.66 5.54 8.91 4.12 1.24 55.97 16.82 43.99 19.69 29.88 10.5 25.47 20.34

64

6.63 28.77 30.37 22.08 4.13 67.05 11.47 9.28 13.9 17.62 2.97 4.18 4.26 3.21 4.64 3.51 10.19 33.2 11.19 26.3 11.16 12.22 5.29 12.62 2.35

10.49 52.73 19.91 18.04 21.34 18.52 13.11 11.73 12.58 66.31 5.16 4.61 15.79 3.1 4.3 1.93 4.68 51.48 14.68 38.56 5.56 18.34 17.27 36.87 1.85


Lampiran 1 Hasil Regression Model GLS FIXED EFFECT (FEM)

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