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Investment Outlook Desember 2016 Berdasarkan data November 2016
Investment Division
1
Investment Issues
2
Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast
Agenda
1
1
Investment Issues
2
Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast
Dashboard Makroekonomi 2016
Inflasi
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Rata- Rata Nilai Tukar
Defisit Neraca Berjalan
Realisasi 2015
3.45%
4.79%
12,500
2.7%
1Q16
0.41%
4.92%
13,500
2.14%
2Q16
0.44%
5.18%
13,300
2.0%
3Q16
0.35%
5.02%
13.377
1.83%
4%
5.2%
13,500
2.35%
APBN-P 2016
4
Internal Use Only
Desember Investment Outlook
Market Outlook Global – 2016 AMERIKA SERIKAT • Tingkat pengangguran di bulan November 2016 turun ke level 4,6% dari bulan Oktober 2016 yang berada di level 4,9%. Data Non Farm Payroll pada November 2016 menunjukkan ada peningkatan sebesar 178.000 penambahan tenaga kerja. • Diluar ekspektasi, Donald Trump terpilih menjadi presiden Amerikat Serikat ke-45. Para investor berharap dengan terpilihnya Trump pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat lebih tinggi dengan kebijakan-kebijakan yang mendukung pertumbuhan.
EROPA • Inflasi zona eropa diekspektasi mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,6% year on year pada bulan November 2016 dimana bulan Oktober 2016 inflasi meningkat 0,5% year on year sesuai dengan ekspektasi konsensus. • Indeks PMI Manufaktur zona eropa meningkat ke angka 53,7 dari bulan sebelumnya yang merupakan angka tertinggi sejak Februari 2011.
ASIA • Indeks manufaktur China meningkat ke level 51,70 di bulan November 2016 diamana sebelumnya berada di angka 51,2 di bulan Oktober 2016. • Indeks sentimen di antara produsen besar di Jepang naik ke level 10 dari tiga bulan lalu yang berada di level 6. Meningkatnya sentimen produsen di Jepang menunjukkan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi moderat sedang berlangsung pada sembilan bulan pertama tahun ini. 5
Internal Use Only
Desember Investment Outlook
Market Outlook Domestik – 2016 Penerimaan Pajak Hingga November 2016 • Penerimaan pajak sampai November 2016 mencapai Rp 965 Triliun, dimana angka tersebut baru mencapai 61,2% dari target. Pada Desember 2016, Kementrian Keuangan mengidentifikasi adanya penerimaan pajak hingga Rp 100 Triliun selain itu, ada tambahan pemasukan dari program pengampunan pajak (tax amnesty) hingga Rp 42 Triliun.
Penurunan Cadangan Devisa • Bank Indonesia (BI) mencatat posisi cadangan devisa sebesar US$ 111,5 miliar per akhir November 2016. Posisi cadangan devisa ini lebih rendah dibandingkan posisi akhir Oktober 2016 sebesar US$ 115 miliar. Penurunan cadangan devisa terutama disebabkan oleh kebutuhan devisa untuk pembayaran utang luar negeri dan juga untuk stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah sesuai dengan fundamentalnya.
Laju Inflasi Terjaga • Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat inflasi sebesar 0,47% pada November 2016. Angka ini lebih tinggi dibanding bulan sebelumnya yang hanya 0,14%. Inflasi tahun kalender (Januari-November) tercatat 2,59% dan secara year on year (yoy) sebesar 3,58%. Dari 82 kota yang disurvei BPS, 78 kota alami inflasi dan empat kota alami deflasi.
6
Internal Use Only
Desember Investment Outlook
2
1
Investment Issues
2
Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast
7
Allianz Fund Performance - Conventional No.
Fund
1 Bulan
3 Bulan
6 Bulan
1 Tahun
3 Tahun
Total Aset IDR (Mil) Peluncuran USD (Jt)
YTD
1
Smartlink Rupiah Money Market Fund
0.38%
1.19%
2.52%
5.64%
2
Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap
0.37%
1.12%
2.21%
4.94%
3
Smartlink Dollar Managed Fund
-2.87%
-4.42%
1.47%
7.21%
15.19%
7.64%
4
Smartlink Rupiah Fixed Income Fund
-3.80%
-4.12%
0.64%
8.63%
20.97%
9.62%
5
Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Fund
-3.96%
-3.76%
2.02%
9.32%
19.44%
8.21%
2,425.55 8-Mar-04
6
SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia Fund
-5.22%
-4.91%
3.83%
12.22%
18.09%
9.51%
566.10 5-May-11
7
SmartWealth Equity Indoglobal Fund
-5.26%
-5.19%
3.73%
12.92%
10.09%
11.61 7-Nov-14
8
SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Small Medium Capital Fund
-5.64%
-6.17%
2.98%
12.55%
0.40%
8.80%
1.51 27-Sep-13
9
SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Infrastructure Fund
-5.92%
-4.97%
9.07%
17.78%
17.81%
11.53%
91.14 27-Sep-13
10 Fund
-6.16%
-5.68%
2.91%
12.51%
19.27%
9.87%
412.35 15-Jul-09
11 Smartlink Rupiah Equity Fund
-6.68%
-6.03%
4.04%
14.87%
22.53%
11.29%
8,536.18 1-Sep-07
-7.20%
-7.81%
0.34%
17.48%
17.33%
13.87%
106.69 17-Jun-13
-7.69%
-7.62%
-4.82%
-6.46%
6.10%
-7.67%
140.01
-8.69%
-6.94%
4.62%
13.85%
3.98%
10.40%
Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus
SmartWealth Rupiah Equity
12 Indoconsumer Fund
SmartWealth Liquiflex LQ45
13 Fund
SmartWealth US Dollar Equity
14 IndoAsia Fund
20.66% #N/A
#N/A
5.15%
360.15 25-May-01
4.46%
1.25 18-Aug-14 40.14
7-Apr-03
974.08 25-May-01
3-Jul-13
41.78 1-May-12 8
Internal Use Only
Desember Investment Outlook
Allianz Fund Performance - Syariah No.
Fund
1 Bulan
3 Bulan
6 Bulan
1 Tahun
3 Tahun
Total Aset IDR (Mil) Peluncuran USD (Jt)
YTD
1
Allisya Rupiah Equity Fund
-8.35%
-8.70%
2.88%
16.13%
17.22%
11.05%
2
Allisya Rupiah Balanced Fund
-6.47%
-6.67%
0.74%
9.49%
15.40%
6.71%
3
Allisya Rupiah Fixed Income Fund
-2.82%
-2.70%
1.13%
6.51%
17.71%
6.61%
726,58 25-Apr-06 501.31
7-Apr-03
68.24 15-Jul-09
9
Internal Use Only
Desember Investment Outlook
Fund Forecast No.
Fund
1
SmartWealth Dollar Equity IndoAsia Fund
2
SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia Fund
3
SmartWealth Equity Indo Global Fund
4
SmartWealth Equity Small Medium Capital Fund
5
SmartWealth Equity Infrastructure Fund
6
SmartWealth Equity Indoconsumer Fund
7
Smartlink Rupiah Equity Fund
8
SmartWealth Equity Liquiflex LQ45 Fund
9
Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus Fund
10
Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Fund
11
Smartlink Dollar Managed Fund
12
Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap
13
Smartlink Fixed Income Fund
14
Smartlink Rupiah Money Market Fund
Jangka Pendek
Jangka Panjang
10 Desember Investment Outlook
Fund Forecast No.
Fund
1
Allisya Equity Fund
2
Allisya Balanced Fund
3
Allisya Fixed Income Fund
Jangka Pendek
Jangka Panjang
11 Desember Investment Outlook
This document is prepared for general information only, and the specific investment objectives, personal situation and particular needs of any person have not been taken into consideration.
Disclaimer
You should read the relevant product and fund documentation, including the relevant product summary, product highlights sheets and fund summaries for details before deciding to invest. Copies of the product and fund documentation can be obtained from our authorized agents or distributors. The past performance of any fund is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the fund. The value of investments and units in any fund June go down as well as up, which is an investment risk which you June face. You should not rely on this document as investment advice. If you have any concerns about any investment products or are uncertain about the suitability of any investment decision, you should seek such financial advice from your professional advisers as appropriate. Information contained in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however Allianz does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates expressed are subject to change without notice and Allianz expressly disclaims any and all liability for representations and warranties, express or implied, contained herein, or for omissions.
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