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Investment Outlook September 2016 Berdasarkan data Agustus 2016
Investment Division
Agenda
1
Investment Issues
2
Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast
1
1
Investment Issues
2
Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast
Dashboard Makroekonomi 2016
Inflasi
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Rata- Rata Nilai Tukar
Defisit Neraca Berjalan
Realisasi 2015
3.45%
4.79%
12,500
2.7%
1Q16
0.41%
4.92%
13,500
2.14%
2Q16
0.44%
5.18%
13,300
2.0%
4%
5.2%
13,500
2.35%
APBN-P 2016
4
Internal Use Only
September Investment Outlook
Market Outlook Global – 2016 AMERIKA SERIKAT • Data jobless-claim bulan Agustus sedikit membaik dari bulan sebelumnya. Angka jobless claim terjaga tetap di bawah level 300.000 untuk rentang waktu yang cukup lama yaitu 19 bulan. Jobless claim tercatat 263.000 berbanding estimasi sebesar 265.000 . • Lapangan pekerjaan bertambah 180.000 lebih rendah dari bulan sebelumnya sebesar 250.000. Meski begitu angka pengangguran turun menjadi 4.8%
EROPA • Inflasi zona Euro pada bulan Agustus tercatat sebesar 0.2%, tidak berubah dari bulan sebelumnya. • Dari sisi neraca perdagangan, baik ekspor maupiun impor mengalami penurunan untuk data per bulan Juli. Impor turun 8% sedangkan ekspor turun 10%.
ASIA • Pertumbuhan produksi industri Tiongkok kembali bergeliat di bulan Agustus dengan tumbuh sebesar 6.3% secara tahunan setelah bulan sebelumnya hanya tumbuh 6%. Pertumbuhan juga terjadi pada sektor ritel sebesar 10.6%, lebih tinggi dari bulan sebelumnya 10.2%. • Perekonomian Jepang tumbuh 0.7% pada kuartal 2, lebih tinggi dari estimasi yang hanya 0.2%.
5
Internal Use Only
September Investment Outlook
Market Outlook Domestik – 2016 DORONGAN TAX AMNESTY • Peningkatan uang tebusan di bulan September jauh melampaui angka gabungan ulan Juli - Agustus. • Per 15 September, dana tebusan yang sudah masuk mencapai Rp22.7 triliun dengan total aset yang dideklarasi sebesar Rp552.7 triliun
KREDIBILITAS ANGGARAN • APBN 2017 sudah mulai memasuki tahap penyusunan. Melihat penerimaan pajak tahun ini yang kemungkinan akan di bawah target, menteri keuangan sudah merevisi target [ertumbuhan ekonomi tahun depan menjadi 5.2%. • APBN-P 2016 kembali mengalami pemotongan setelah sebelumnya dipotong sebesar Rp165 Triliun untuk menjaga defisit anggaran di bawah 3%
MAKROEKONOMI KONDUSIF • Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terjaga secara rata-rata 5% dan juga inflasi yang rendah membuat indoneisa kondusif untuk investasi. Inflasi sejak awal tahun per bulan Agustus tercatat sebesar 1.7%. • Dana asing yang masuk juga mulai menopang neraca berjalan sehingga defisit juga mulai menipis. 6
Internal Use Only
September Investment Outlook
2
1
Investment Issues
2
Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast
7
Allianz Fund Performance - Conventional No.
Fund
1 Bulan
3 Bulan
6 Bulan
1 Tahun
3 Tahun
Total Aset IDR (Mil) Peluncuran USD (Jt)
YTD
1
SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Indoconsumer Fund
3.48%
8.85%
11.35%
25.83%
26.27%
23.52%
2
SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Infrastructure Fund
2.66%
14.77%
16.93%
20.77%
#N/A
17.37%
3
SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia Fund
2.37%
9.19%
13.01%
17.77%
30.15%
15.17%
4
SmartWealth Equity Indoglobal Fund
2.36%
9.41%
13.07%
21.37%
#N/A
16.11%
5
Smartlink Rupiah Equity Fund
2.34%
10.72%
12.33%
22.29%
32.60%
18.44%
6
Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus Fund
1.54%
9.10%
11.36%
20.45%
27.15%
16.48%
7
SmartWealth US Dollar Equity IndoAsia Fund
1.27%
12.31%
14.29%
24.40%
7.33%
18.59%
8
Smartlink Dollar Managed Fund
0.86%
6.15%
9.86%
12.62%
25.75%
12.61%
9
Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Fund
0.76%
6.00%
8.81%
15.60%
24.68%
12.43%
10
SmartWealth Liquiflex LQ45 Fund
0.64%
3.03%
-1.16%
0.93%
16.85%
-0.06%
11
Smartlink Rupiah Money Market Fund
0.42%
1.31%
2.80%
5.96%
20.92%
3.91%
12
Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap
0.41%
1.08%
2.31%
5.21%
#N/A
3.30%
13
SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Small Medium Capital Fund
-0.12%
9.76%
14.25%
21.04%
#N/A
15.96%
14
Smartlink Rupiah Fixed Income Fund
-0.53%
4.97%
10.61%
17.17%
26.30%
14.33%
Internal Use Only
102.81
99.36 574.13 12.09 8,308.57 429.89
43.17 35.36 2,566.69 196.27 324.80 0.81
2.11 1,017.00
17-Jun-13 27-Sep-13 5-May-11 7-Nov-14 1-Sep-07 15-Jul-09
1-May-12 7-Apr-03 8-Mar-04 3-Jul-13 25-May-01 18-Aug-14 27-Sep-13 25-May-01
September Investment Outlook
8
Allianz Fund Performance - Syariah No.
Fund
1 Bulan
3 Bulan
6 Bulan
1 Tahun
3 Tahun
Total Aset IDR (Mil) Peluncuran USD (Jt)
YTD
1
Allisya Rupiah Equity Fund
1.89%
12.69%
14.65%
23.16%
25.33%
21.64%
2
Allisya Rupiah Balanced Fund
1.14%
7.93%
9.94%
15.69%
22.42%
14.33%
3
Allisya Rupiah Fixed Income Fund
0.42%
3.93%
7.06%
11.56%
21.41%
9.57%
761.83 541.84 69.61
25-Apr-06 7-Apr-03 15-Jul-09
9
Internal Use Only
September Investment Outlook
Fund Forecast No.
Fund
1
SmartWealth Dollar Equity IndoAsia Fund
2
SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia Fund
3
SmartWealth Equity Indo Global Fund
4
SmartWealth Equity Small Medium Capital Fund
5
SmartWealth Equity Infrastructure Fund
6
SmartWealth Equity Indoconsumer Fund
7
Smartlink Rupiah Equity Fund
8
SmartWealth Equity Liquiflex LQ45 Fund
9
Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus Fund
10
Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Fund
11
Smartlink Dollar Managed Fund
12
Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap
13
Smartlink Fixed Income Fund
14
Smartlink Rupiah Money Market Fund
Jangka Pendek
Jangka Panjang
10
September Investment Outlook
Fund Forecast No.
Fund
1
Allisya Equity Fund
2
Allisya Balanced Fund
3
Allisya Fixed Income Fund
Jangka Pendek
Jangka Panjang
11
September Investment Outlook
This document is prepared for general information only, and the specific investment objectives, personal situation and particular needs of any person have not been taken into consideration.
Disclaimer
You should read the relevant product and fund documentation, including the relevant product summary, product highlights sheets and fund summaries for details before deciding to invest. Copies of the product and fund documentation can be obtained from our authorized agents or distributors. The past performance of any fund is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the fund. The value of investments and units in any fund June go down as well as up, which is an investment risk which you June face. You should not rely on this document as investment advice. If you have any concerns about any investment products or are uncertain about the suitability of any investment decision, you should seek such financial advice from your professional advisers as appropriate.
Information contained in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however Allianz does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates expressed are subject to change without notice and Allianz expressly disclaims any and all liability for representations and warranties, express or implied, contained herein, or for omissions.
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