INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN INDONESIA DALAM ERA PASAR AEC 2015: PELUANG DAN TANTANGAN
Dr. Ir. Arief Daryanto, M.Ec. Direktur, Program Pascasarjana Manajemen dan Bisnis IPB (MB-IPB)
Seminar Nasional “Membangun Perunggasan Indonesia yang Berdayasaing dan Berkelanjutan dalam Era AEC ”, Auditorium Fapet UGM Yogyakarta, 15 November 2014
Presentation Outline • Introductory Remarks • Konteks Persaingan: ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 2015 • Faktor Penentu Industri Perunggasan di Era Global • Tantangan dan Peluang Industri Perunggasan di Era AEC 2015 • Strategi Menghadapi Persaingan di Era AEC 2015 • Concluding Remarks
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
• In the global industries: the fittest* (and the intelligent) have survived. *the fittest means having a strong balance sheet
KONTEKS PERSAINGAN: ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 2015
Figure 1. Regional Economic Integration
Process whereby countries in a geographic region cooperate to either reduce or eliminate barriers to the free flow of products, people, or capital Source: Wild and Wild, 2013
Table 1. Levels of Regional Integration Political Union
Coordinate aspects of members’ economic and political systems
Economic Union
Remove barriers to trade, labor, and capital, set a common trade policy against nonmembers, and coordinate members’ economic policies
Common Market
Remove all barriers to trade, labor, and capital among members, and set a common trade policy against nonmembers
Customs Union
Remove all barriers to trade among members & set a common trade policy against nonmembers
Free‐Trade Area
Remove all barriers to trade among members, but each country has own policies for nonmembers
Source: Wild and Wild, 2013
Table 2. Effects of Integration Potential benefits Trade creation Greater consensus Political cooperation Creates jobs
Source: Wild and Wild, 2013
Potential drawbacks
Trade diversion Shifts in employment Loss of sovereignty
Figure 2. AEC Scorecard
Table 3. The Ten ASEAN Member Countries (Competitive markets of over 600 million people) GDP per capita (US$):
2011
2012
1. Brunei Darussalam 50,790 2. Indonesia 6,728 3. Malaysia 13,385 4. Philippines 3,383 5. Singapore 49,754 6. Thailand 7,907 7. Cambodia 1,818 8. Lao PDR 2,054 9. Myanmar 1,040 10. Vietnam 2,589 Source: CIA World Fact Book (2013)
50,000 4,700 15,800 4,100 60,500 9,500 2,200 2,700 1,300 3,400 10
Framework of Analysis • Wanted “RICH ASEAN”: Resilient, Inclusive, Competitive and Harmonious ASEAN • Not AFTA: Agree First Talk After
FAKTOR PENENTU INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN DALAM ERA GLOBAL
Faktor Penentu: Sisi Permintaan (1) • Permintaan komoditas dan produk peternakan terus meningkat Pertumbuhan penduduk, pertumbuhan pendapatan, semakin banyaknya penduduk kelas menengah, urbanisasi, harapan hidup semakin besar dan penduduk usia tua • Diversifikasi menuju produksi komoditas bernilai tinggi (high‐value production) Revolusi Peternakan dan Revolusi Putih • Pola pengeluaran makanan yang bergeser dari biji‐bijian dan makanan pokok ke sayur‐mayur, buah, daging, susu, telur dan ikan • Pergeseran selera dari daging merah ke daging putih • Harga komoditas dan produk unggas yang paling murah dibandingkan dengan daging lainnya
Faktor Penentu: Sisi Permintaan (2) • Permintaan terhadap makanan siap masak dan siap saji semakin meningkat • Pertumbuhan yang pesat supermarket, hypermarket dan QSRs (quick service restaurants) • Kebijakan pemerintah terkait keamanan pangan (food safety)
Faktor Penentu: Sisi Penawaran • Perkembangan ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi • Investasi pertanian yang menurun dan salah alokasi (under investment and mis‐investment phenomenon) • Industrialisasi dan scaling up (konsolidasi usaha) Economies of scale • Peningkatan nilai tambah Integrasi vertikal • Integrasi vertikal Model “Contract farming” dan “Grow‐out” • Konversi lahan, degradasi lahan, erosi tanah dan kelangkaan air • Keterbatasan infrastruktur dan logistik • Sumberdaya alam yang terbatas (FCRs unggas lebih rendah) • Perubahan iklim
Faktor Penentu: Sisi Kebijakan • Liberalisasi perdagangan • Stabilisasi dan penyesuaian struktural • Kebijakan makro, perdagangan dan sektoral • Kebijakan subsidi di negera maju, khususnya di negara‐ negara OECD
Gambar 3. Kompleksitas (Tali Temali) Faktor Penentu Daya Saing Pertanian Kebijakan
• Kebijakan Perdagangan • Kebijakan Pertanian • Kebijakan Biofuel/Energi • Regulasi Keamanan Pangan • Kriteria Berkelanjutan Faktor Penawaran
Faktor Permintaan
• Lahan Pertanian • Produksi(output/ha) • Manajemen Usahatani • Harga Input Usahatani • Cuaca • Hama dan Penyakit
Daya Saing Pertanian
• • • • • • •
Faktor‐faktor Lainnya Aktivitas Pembiayaan Nilai Tukar Tarif Angkutan Harga Minyak Mentah Spesifikasi Teknis Spekulasi dan Sentimen Pasar Masuknya Pasar Baru Non‐Agri
• Pakan • Pangan • Biofuels • Industri Pengolahan
Gambar 4. Tantangan Utama: Produksi Lebih Banyak Dengan Sedikit Input
Permintaan yang meningkat : •9 milyar orang •Perubahan pola makan •Diet yang lebih baik •Penggunaan biofuel
Kapasitas yang menurun : •Berkurangnya lahan/berkurangnya lahan yang baik •Perubahan iklim
Sumber: David Green, Greenhouse Communications, Virginia dan Economist Magazine, 2011
Gambar 5. Per Capita Chicken Meat Consumption Growth with Per Capita GDP in Selected Countries 2011/2012
Source: Rabobank, 2012
Figure 6. Rising Income Changes Consumption Pattern
Source: Rabobank, 2013
Figure 7. Meat Production and Real Prices Trends
Source: Meat Atlas, 2014
Figure 8. Worldwide Meat Production
Source: Meat Atlas, 2014
Figure 9. Demand of Meat in Developing Countries is Rising Steeply
Source: Meat Atlas, 2014
Figure 10. Growth in the Supermarket Fridges
Figure 11. Counting the Animals
Source: The Economist, 2011
Australia
Figure 12. Country Shares of Global Chicken Meat Consumption
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service 2014b
Australia
Figure 13. Comparison of Global Chicken Meat Consumption and Production, 2012
Source: a. Foreign Agricultural Service 2014b (consumption) b. Food and Agriculture Organisation (Production)
Australia
Figure 14. Country Shares of Global Chicken Meat Production
Sumber: Food and Agriculture Organisation
Australia
Figure 15. Per Capita Chicken Meat Consumption for Selected Countries, 2012
Source: a. Foreign Agricultural Service 2014b (consumption) b. World Bank (Population)
Figure 16. Expectation of Higher Growth in Consumption
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Credit Suisse Estimates
Figure 17. Chicken is Indonesia’s Favorite Meat: Indonesia Meat Consumption Breakdown
Source: Indonesia Central Statistical Bureau
Figure 18. Sunny Days for Indonesian Broiler Sector
Figure 19. Genetic Selection Criteria
Source: Laughlin, K et al (2007)
Figure 20. Significant Technological Changes in the Chicken Industry
Source: Aho, 2012
In 1975, it took 64.1 days and 4.66 kg of feed to grow a chicken to 2 kg. In 2011, it took just 35 days and as little as 3.4 kg of feed (ACMF, 2011)
Figure 21. Efficiency Improvements in Australian Chicken Meat Production
Source: Australian Chicken Meat Federation 2011
Figure 22. Converting Feed into Meat
Source: Australian Chicken Meat Federation 2014
Figure 23. Animal Feed Raw Material Consumption 2010
Source: Association of Animal Feed Producers (GPMT)
Figure 24. Livestock Industries Throughout the Supply Chain
Farming input
• Breeders • Animal feed
Farming input
•Livestock •Poultry •Abattoirs
Manufacturing
• Processed foods, cosmetics, personal care, chemicals etc.
Logistic
Source: World Food Security Summit 2014
Packaging and distribution
Retail Food services
•Warehousing •Repackaging •Cold room
•Supermarkets, groceries, restaurants, hotels
TANTANGAN DAN PELUANG INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN KE DEPAN
Challenges in Poultry Industry (1) •
The global industry is in crisis: Import growth slowing down and much more competition
•
Traditional exporters (e.g., US, Brazil, Argentina, Thailand) continue to grow while a global recession is underway
•
Traditional importers (e.g., Russia and China) are becoming self sufficient due to food security concerns AEC has become a greater target for the developed world doesn’t want (CLQs)
Challenges for Poultry Industry (2) • Availability and price volatility of feed ingredients consolidation or integration? • Threat of Bird Flu (AI) High vulnerability to disease outbreak • Volatility of cash flow • Large wet market and small penetration of processed chicken • Limited monitoring and coordination of supply [Fragmented]
Challenges for Poultry Industry (3) • Difficult financing of working capital • Threats of CLQ import • Insufficient supply of infrastructure (cold chain, transportation etc) • Availability of land • Lack of promotion [FAT] • Inefficient government bureaucracy • Policy inconsistency in the era of regional autonomy
Opportunities for Poultry Indonesia (1) • Growth in domestic demand to continue: 15‐ 20% [broiler] • Indonesia’s low per capita consumption provides ample potential for growth • Chicken is the cheapest source of protein • Price risk is shifting from farmer to integrator [Contract Farming]
Opportunities for Poultry Indonesia (2) • Constantly upgrades technology and skill set of farmers • Wet market share to decline more value added • Opportunity for FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)
STRATEGI MENGHADAPI PESAINGAN DALAM ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 2015
Table 4. Global Competitiveness Index: Indonesia vs ASEAN, 2013 CHANGE 2013‐2014
2014 Out of 144
2013 Out f 148
Change 2012‐2013
2012 Out of 144
2011 Out of 142
CHANGE 2011 ‐ 2012
1. Singapore
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2. Malaysia
+4
20
24
+1
25
21
‐4
3. Thailand
+6
31
37
+1
38
39
+1
4. Indonesia
+4
34
38
+12
50
46
‐4
5. Philippines
+7
52
59
+6
65
75
+10
6. Vietnam
+2
68
70
+5
75
65
‐10
7. Cambodia
‐7
95
88
‐3
85
97
+12
8. Myanmar
+5
134
139
‐
‐
‐
‐
Countries
Source: World Economic Forum, 2014
Table 5. Ease of Doing Business Ranking: Indonesia vs ASEAN, 2014 Countries
Ease of Dealing w/ Doing Starting a Getting Construction Business Business Electricity Permits Rank
Registering Property
Getting Credit
Protecting Investors
Paying Taxes
Trading Across Borders
Enforcing Resolving Contracts Insolvency
Singapore
1
3
3
6
28
3
2
5
1
12
4
Malaysia
6
16
43
21
35
1
4
36
5
30
42
Thailand
18
91
14
12
29
73
12
70
24
22
58
Vietnam
99
109
29
156
51
42
157
149
65
46
149
Philippines
108
170
99
33
121
86
128
131
42
114
100
Indonesia 120 175
88
121
101
86
52
137
54
147
144
Cambodia
137
184
161
134
118
42
80
65
114
162
163
Myanmar
182
189
150
126
154
170
182
107
113
188
155
Brunei
59
137
46
29
116
55
115
20
39
161
48
Laos
159
85
96
140
76
159
187
119
161
104
189
Source: World Bank, 2014
Figure 25. Managing Animal Protein Value Chain
Feed • • •
By‐product Feed formulation Raw‐material buying
Breeding •
Production efficiency
Farming •
Production efficiency
Processing
•
Consumer
Passing price changes on to customer
High and volatile prices – consolidation and integration? Market intelligence and efficiency Price and exchange rate volatility – raw material buying, hedging? Financing Source: Rabobank, 2012
Figure 26. Determinants of Poultry Industry Competitiveness Grain availability Value chain improvement & Market intelligence
Investment in technology
Human capital & Managerial expertise
Political influence, Regu‐ latory env. & Trade policies Poultry Competitiveness Infrastructure & Cold chain marketimg
Financing
Sanitary status, Food safety
Integrated Production System Firm strategy: Consolidation, Integration
Gambar 27. Strategi Pembangunan Peternakan dan Kesehatan Hewan REVITALISASI PERSUSUAN
MEMENUHI KEBUTUHAN
PANGAN ASAL TERNAK SAPI /KERBAU
1. 2.
PSDSK
3. 4.
5. 6.
Peningkatan kuantitas dan kualitas benih/bibit
KAMBING‐DOMBA
Peningkatan produksi ternak
AYAM/ITIK
Peningkatan produksi pakan ternak
BABI/ANEKA TERNAK
Pengendalian dan penanggulangan penyakit hewan Penjaminan pangan asal hewan yang ASUH
DAGING
AYAM ANEKA TERNAK
TELUR
ITIK
Peningkatan koordinasi dan dukungan manajemen SAPI KAMBING
RESTRUKTURISASI PERUNGGASAN
SUSU
Gambar 28. Kerangka Desain Strategi Induk Pembangunan Pertanian 2013-2045
CONCLUDING REMARKS: LEADERSHIPS
The pessimist complain about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the leaders adjusts the sails. ‐William Arthur Ward Orang pesimis mengeluhkan angin; Orang optimis berharap agar angin berubah; Pemimpin menyesuaikan layar.
TERIMAKASIH
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