Indonesia dan G20: Peluang dan Tantangan Penguatan Peran Indonesia di G20 pada Era Kepresidenan China
Yulius P Hermawan Seminar “Penguatan Peran Indonesia dalam G20 Tahun 2016” Bandung, 18 Februari 2016
Alur Presentasi Pertanyaan
Isu presentasi
Apa itu G20?
Bagaimana memperkuat peran Indonesia di G20?
Apakah G20 sudah berhasil? Hasil KTT Antalya Agenda Presidensi China (and beyond)
Peluang dan Tantangan Penguatan Peran Indonesia dan Quickwins
“ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE”
Small in term of number of membership
What is G20?
But,
GIANT Club,
= in term of members’ economic power, the represented population, and the ultimate objectives.
Together the 20 members represent around 90 percent of global gross national product, 80 per cent of world trade (including EU intra-trade) and two-thirds of the world’s population Its mandate is:
to contribute to the strengthening of the international financial architecture and to provide opportunities for dialogue on national policies, international cooperation and international financial institutions through which the G20 would help to support growth and development across the globe. (Source: the G20 website: www.g20.org).
nations
Graphic of GDP of the 20
Source: http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2009/09/22/graphic-gdp-of-the-G20-nations
G20 sbg Crisis Committee Tanggung jawab utama: Menangani krisis (jk pendek) Membangun struktur ekonomi global yang tahan terhadap krisis di masa y.a.d. (jk menengah dan panjang) Upgrading G20 2008: Krisis finansial AS (KTT Washington)
Krisis Yunani dan Eurozone
Pembentukan G20 – 1999: Krisis finansial Asia
Akar krisis? Cara menangani krisis? Nasional? Institusiinternasional?
G20 sbg Steering Committee … …
UN IMF Bank Dunia
IEA
G20
FAO
MDBs/ RDBs
FSF/ FSB
BCBS OECD
… …
ILO
Standard setting agencies
Apakah G20 sudah berhasil menjalankan mandatnya? BELUM ….
Perekonomian global belum pulih dari krisis finansial 2008 Muncul krisis Yunani Perang mata uang. Perlambatan pertumbuhan perekonomian global
In Progress….
Koordinasi antar Perekonomian Global (lama dan baru) meningkat …..
Tantangan
http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iKMrNaTatoiE/v2/-1x-1.jpg
The Falls
http://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/EmergingMarketCurrencies.png
Tantangan
http://www.rollingalpha.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Emerging-Mkt-Currencies.jpg
The vulnerables
https://marketrealist.imgix.net/uploads/2015/08/Asia-21-Aug.png?w=660&fit=max&auto=format
Why G20 cannot meet expectations? Internal G20
Global challenges
Broad agenda, lack of focus… Lack of compliance with commitment … The Bigger Powers talk more then the smaller others
Mission Impossible: the economic problems are too complex to solve overnight; The challenges are too difficult
Power talks (2010, 2010, 2015, …)
http://i0.wp.com/img.chinasmack.com/www/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/China-Rise-Through-Western-Political-Cartoons-20.jpg
Currency wars
http://www.toonpool.com/user/1017/files/g20_currency_wars_1044245.jpg
Economic Powerhouse = not focused:? Perkembangan Agenda dan Isu (1999-2007)
Economic Powerhouse Plus (SSB Inclusive): Perkembangan Agenda dan Isu (2008-2015)
Hasil KTT Antalya Dokumen Utama:
Dokumen Annex Agreed Documents • 23 documents incl. Antalya Action Plan
Ministerial statements
G20 Leaders’ Communique: 27 points; 7 halaman utama
9 documents (FM&CB Gov; Agriculture, Labour&Employment, Joint Finance, CBG and Employment, Tourism, Energy, Trade)
Working Group Documents 4 Working Groups + GPFI + Climate Finance Study Group
Supporting documents 54 doc • IMF • OECD
More Ambitious Commitments (at Antalya Summit)
“We will develop an action plan in 2016 to further align our work with the 2030 Agenda”
G20 di bawah Presidensi China
Tema
• Towards an Innovative, Invigorated, Interconnected and Inclusive World Economy 1. Maintaining the Momentum of World Economic
BREAKING A NEW PATH FOR GROWTH
Key Agenda
Recovery,; 2. Lifting Mid-to-Long Term Growth Potential, 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MORE EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL GOVERNANCE
ROBUST INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT
INCLUSIVE AND INTERCONNECTED DEVELOPMENT
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
Improving IFA to meet future challenges continuing financial sector reforms developing green finance Improving international tax regime Implementing consensus on Anti-Corruption Reinforcing trade and investment cooperation mechanism, supporting the multilateral trade system, promoting global trade growth, promoting inclusive and integrated global value chains, enhancing cooperation and coordination on global investment policy
Implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Optimizing G20 Development Cooperation Agenda, Building infrastructure and connectivity, promoting accessible, affordable and sustainable energy supply, Increasing employment, improving food security and nutrition, Mobilizing climate finance, eradicating poverty, supporting industrialization in Africa and Other Developing countries.
Komitmen Indonesia (2014-2015) Komitmen Brisbane Antalya
Improve infrastructure investment perspective by establishing infrastructure body and PPP center Promote SMEs through fiscal and monetary policy supporting SMEs to get financial access easier Boost foreign investment by reducing administrative burden for foreign entities to establish a business in Indonesia Improve job matching by encouraging the private sector to provide training for those seeking jobs through tax incentives Address "behind the border" issues by implementing the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement
Kata kunci Investasi Infrastruktur UMKM Investasi Asing dipermudah
Insentif di ketenagakerjaan Fasilitasi Perdagangan
Identifikasi Peluang dan Tantangan Indonesia Golden Opportunity to be in the ‘elite club” bisa duduk satu meja dengan negara-negara maju dan emerging economies Belajar dari negara maju dan emerging economies
Peluang investasi
Bantuan dari negara maju dan emerging economies
Tantangan Eksternal
Tantangan Internal
Perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia
Struktur ekonomi Indonesia
(Instabilitas) keuangan global
Kepastian hukum, termasuk regulasi
Interdependensi dan vulnerabilitas
Proses politik dalam pemenuhan komitmen
Membangun TOTAL DIPLOMASI EKONOMI di G20 OJK
KPK
Kemenkeu RI
Bank Indonesia
Kemenlu RI
Ketenaga kerjaan
Kemenko Bidang Perekono mian
Kemen PPN/B appena s
ESDM
Kemen Perdagang an
Kemen Pertanian
Penguatan Peran Indonesia? Proses G20
Agenda Indonesia:
Bergerak sangat cepat
Bagaimana kita dapat mengikuti “beat” proses G20?
Prioritas Agenda G20 semakin meluas
Bagaimana kita bisa menguasai seluruh agenda? Dan menjaga kedalaman agenda utama? Bagaimana Indonesia dapat membentuk agenda G20 yang sejalan dengan kepentingan nasional.
Quickwins: Bagaimana peran Indonesia di forum prestisius dapat segera dirasakan oleh masyarakat Indonesia?
Standar pelayanan publik yang tidak rumit Terciptanya lapangan pekerjaan yang berkualitas Stabilitas harga – tercukupinya pasokan kebutuhan primer
Akses energi merata dengan harga terjangkau Infrastruktur transportasi dan jalan yang memadai Silakan tulis your wish di sini …………..
http://media.viva.co.id/thumbs2/2012/01/20/140850_aksi-para-pelajar-di-lebak--banten--meniti-jembatan_663_382.JPG
Quickwins: Bagaimana peran Indonesia di forum prestisius dapat segera dirasakan oleh masyarakat Indonesia?
Bagaimana mekanisme akuntabilitas G20 baik di tingnasional Bagaimana G20 mencerminkan kepentingan rakyat?
Hatur
Nuhun
