11 Juni 2014
Emas Masih Dalam Gigitan Beruang! “Gold is money and it’s true money. It’s money that is not part of a balance sheet of a central bank, and it doesn’t have any debt. It is a real asset and it has been money for thousands of years and will remain so. Paper money is different. Gold has survived all paper currencies. And all fiat currency systems, as we are in since 1971, have eventually collapsed. That’s the long term. I do not know when our paper currency system will collapse but eventually it will. And that’s where the true value of gold will be because in gold you can store your savings and your assets in a better way than in paper currencies. … In the end of a fiat currency system you either have a deflationary collapse and a currency reform, or you have an inflationary collapse and a currency reform, and you cut out a lot of debt. Obviously you also cut out a lot of assets and wealth. That will be the ultimate point where gold really is the most important asset to hold.” -- Felix Zulauf, founder of Zulauf Asset Management
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
5 Alasan Penurunan Harga Emas Anjloknya harga pada tahun 2013 telah memicu prospek bahwa emas sedang membentuk bottom, sehingga pada 2014 ini para investor mengharapkan kenaikan harga. Namun mengapa rally harga emas masih belum terlihat jelas? Menurut Bloomberg, ada sejumlah alasan: 1. Stabilitas Ekonomi: Setelah gempar dengan krisis keuangan, stabilitas relatif berkembang dalam 5 tahun terakhir ini. Pertumbuhan mulai meningkat, meskipun masih dalam kapasitas yang tidak signifikan. Sementara penurunan produk domestik bruto AS sebesar 1% di kuartal pertama disebabkan oleh pengaruh cuaca dingin yang terburuk dalam setengah abad. Hal ini dibuktikan dengan data-data ekonomi berikutnya yang mengindikasikan perbaikan signifikan di kuartal kedua. 2. Dolar AS Menguat: Pada kurun waktu tahun 2000an, indeks dolar merosot 41%, yang mendorong kenaikan harga emas. Namun sejak itu, dolar AS menjadi salah satu mata uang yang terkuat, yang memberikan hambatan signifikan bagi harga-harga logam mulia. 3. Tekanan Inflasi: Meskipun sempat ada perkiraan hyperinflation, yang mendukung kenaikan harga-harga logam mulia, ternyata kenaikan consumer price index tidaklah signifikan. Sepanjang 5 tahun, bahkan tidak ada lonjakan inflasi. Hal ini pun menghapus alasan utama untuk memiliki emas. 4. Geopolitik: Meskipun telah terjadi sejumlah kekacauan, belum terlihat transaksi pasar yang ketakutan. Memang, di semester pertama tahun 2014 ini banyak terjadi pertempuran regional, namun skalanya masih lokal. Krisis Ukraina nampaknya sebagian besar masih persoalan Rusia, sementara sengketa Cina dengan negara-negara sekitarnya hanyalah masalah spesifik di Asia. Dan memang, selalu seperti terlihat seolah perang akan pecah di suatu tempat, namun sampai saat ini isu geopolitik tersebut masih terbilang minor. 5. Tidak Ada Keruntuhan Bursa: Bubble yang sejak lama dikhawatiran sampai saat ini belum terjadi. Namun ekspektasinta, jika nanti akhirnya terjadi, apara investor akan kembali berbondongbondong ke logam mulia. Intinya kira-kira adalah bahwa faktor-faktor yang mendorong kenaikan besar emas di periode 2001-2011 tidak lagi hadir.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Kurangi emas Anda untuk dolar AS Kekuatan pemicu pelemahan secara teknikal harga emas adalah rally dolar AS, seperti dijelaskan J.C. Parets, seorang technical analyst dari Eagle Bay Capital, bahwa potensial akan menjadi “epic squeeze.” Penting untuk selalu kita ingat bahwa secara historis korelasi antara logam mulia dan dolar AS pada umumnya adalah negatif. Greg Guenthner, seorang managing editor di The Rude Awakening, baru-baru ini mengatakan bahwa grafik telah memberikan informasi agar mentransaksikan emas untuk dolar AS. Saya sepakat dengannya, dan saya sering menulis hal ini dalam beberapa pekan terakhir. Berikut yang dikatakannya, disertai sejumlah grafik yang sangat menarik, pada 30 Mei 2014 lalu: “Gold can't catch a bid. And the U.S. Dollar is staging a stealth rally that could send it sprinting toward its 2013 highs. Welcome to trading in 2014... I told you a couple of weeks ago that if we see gold slip below $1,280, a quick tumble back to its lows near $1,200 was a very real possibility. I also said you should avoid the miners and the metal due to their downright terrible behavior. Well, everything began to unravel quickly earlier this week. Gold dropped nearly $30 Tuesday to $1,263. That's far below the $1,280 threshold. Traders took notice--and gold hasn't even enjoyed a relief rally since the selloff. As of early this morning, gold futures are just above 5% above their December lows just below $1,200...
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Gold's down almost another $5 as I type. It's finished lower every single day this week. While a relief rally isn't out of the question, I suspect it continues to push lower... Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index is putting together a stealth rally that could quickly send it back above its January highs. After leaking lower, greenbacks are beginning to make a move. The Dollar Index shot off its early May lows and has now trended higher for nearly three weeks...
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Check out how the Dollar Index found a bottom at $79--the same place it bottomed in late October. That's a solid foundation for a move higher... Just a few weeks ago, many analysts were talking about a potential breakdown in the dollar. But things aren't always as they first appear. Many times, the best trades are the ones you least expect.”
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Harga-harga logam mulia mendekati bottom Jordan Roy Byrne atau dikenal dengan panggilan “Trendsman”, yang adalah pemilik Trendsman Research, memproyeksikan penurunan masih akan terjadi sebelum membentuk bottom terakhir atau at least before he’ll exit hedges and begins buying. Sejak terjadi reversal harga yang berat di bulan Maret lalu, dia memandang harga logam mulia bakal merosot dan uji lagi level low Desember lalu. Dia begitu yakin dengan hal tersebut dalam beberapa pekan terakhir ini dan mengungkapkan dalam tulisan bahwa penurunan bulan Mei akan memberikan peluang beli di bulan Juni: “Gold's bear market has been severe to this point but not when judged through the lens of history. The bear analogs below suggest gold has more downside potential and could easily make a new low. If and when the weekly low of $1200 breaks, gold could plunge to its bottom within a few weeks. Keep an eye on $1080, which is the 50% retracement of the entire bull market.
The potential decline in gold sounds severe but consider the following. The gold stocks began topping in December 2010, well before gold. Silver stocks and junior miners (SIL, GDXJ, GLDX) peaked in April 2011. Although the large cap miners (GDX) peaked at the same time as gold in summer 2011, the majority of the mining sector peaked months before. Hence, it would not be a surprise to see the mining stocks or some of the sector bottom before gold. History makes a strong argument that this leg down in the miners is the final leg down.”
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Harga Akan Turun John C. Burford, editor di MoneyWeek Trader, memiliki opini bahwa harga emas masih akan turun berdasarkan the Commitment of Traders Report: “How are the futures players lined up? Here is the latest COT report:
This data is current to last Tuesday – the very day the market broke my lower wedge line. The previous week saw a big swing to the bearish side by the hedgies (non-commercials) as well as the small specs (non-reportables). But both groups of specs remain net long, and my guess is that before this down move ends, there will be a further swing by the specs to the bearish side. And that will provide the fuel for the massive rally that I expect. We shall see. But for now, the market is headed down.”
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
Kesimpulan Jadi kapan sentiment bearish emas akan berakhir? Untuk menjawabnya, mari simak Dominic Frisby di MoneyWeek, yang mulai memberikan sentimen positif untuk jangka panjang: “Let's look at previous bear markets. Newsletter Atlas Pulse (ask him nicely, I'm sure he'll give you a free copy) has put together an interesting table of bear market stats, which, with his kind permission, I post below.
This current bear market is some 123 weeks old. Of the other major bear markets, three have been shorter and two longer. So, in terms of duration – unless this is an enormous bear of 1987-93 magnitude – there shouldn't be too long to go. The average fall has been 45%. So at 36% so far, we have not yet fallen 'enough'. But that average included the steep falls from the exceptional 1980 intraday high of $850, so you could argue that an average closer to 40% could be used. The scale of the fall relative to the stock market (the gold to S&P ratio) is 'on target' at 60% against an average of 62%. Based on these comparisons, I think it's fair to say the bear market is mature – the end cannot be too far away. We may already have seen it. Another bullish factor is that, even though the gold price has been flat for two months, around or just below $1,300, the exchange-traded funds have still experienced outflows - selling in other words. The more money that leaves the gold market, the more money there is to come back in.
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
I'm all too aware that my call of a few months back to see $1,425 by May hasn't worked out. My stop at $1,275 got hit, rather annoyingly, so I'm out of that particular trade for a $30 loss. What is interesting to me at present is the flat price, the low volatility and the total lack of interest. I go to a regular dinner with a bunch of fund managers and we all talk about the markets. At the most recent one, a fortnight ago, gold wasn't even mentioned. That must be a first. The lack of interest is a positive sign – the sort of thing you hope to see towards the end of bear markets. Now, I'm not wildly positive about gold in the short term. June normally sees the low for the year, so perhaps we'll drift lower over the next month or so. I'm expecting a flat summer and it really wouldn't surprise me, when writing my next gold article in a few months' time to see the price almost exactly where it is now.”
Terakhir yang tak kalah penting, berikut sebuah gambar lucu dari Jon Pawelko, penerbit komik online Lampoon The System, yang menyindir kebijakan-kebijakan ekonomi yang ‘tidak biasa’ dan sekaligus memberikan pendidikan ke masyarakat tentang istilah-istilah ekonomi:
Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!
Regards, Nico Omer Jonckheere VP Research and Analysis PT. Valbury Asia Futures
The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should be considered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.
