Positivity Leads to Stability

WEEKLY REPORT

D E B T RESEARCH

Positivity Leads to Stability

10 - 14 FEBRUARY 2014

19000

7.988% 8.990% 9.524% 9.551%

Government Bonds Indices as of 10-Feb-14 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) 116.29 Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 9.01% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) 358.60

9000

Trade Balance (RHS)

Import

31-Jul-13

31-Jan-13

31-Jul-12

31-Jan-12

31-Jul-11

31-Jul-10

31-Jan-11

4000 31-Jan-10

IDR 47.18tn IDR 2.05tn

14000

31-Jul-09

IDR 1012.7tn IDR 218.03tn

31-Jan-09

Benchmark Yield as of 10-Feb-14 FR0069 (5 year) FR0070 (10 year) FR0071 (15 year) FR0068 (20 year) Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM

4000 3000 2000 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 31-Jul-08

Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds Corporate Bonds

Export, Import andTrade Balance 24000

USD Million

Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov't Bonds as of 06-Feb-14 Corp Bonds as of Jan-14

7.50% 4,467 12,161 8.22%

31-Jan-08

Key Market Indicators as of 10-Feb-14 BI Rate JCI Index IDR Inflation(y-o-y) - Jan-14

BB+ Baa3 BBB-

USD Million

Indonesia FCLT Rating S&P Moody's Fitch

Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia bulan Desember 2013 tercatat surplus sebesar US$ 1,52 miliar, tertinggi selama 2 tahun terakhir. Selama Desember 2013, ekspor meningkat sebesar 6,56% dari bulan November 2013 dan pada periode yang sama, impor mengalami peningkatan sebesar 2,04%. YoY GDP 4Q13 mencapai 5,72%, namun jika dibandingkan dengan 3Q13, GDP di kuartal akhir 2013 turun 1,42%. Selain itu, inflasi tahun 2014 diperkirakan akan turun akibat perubahan tahun dasar dan hilangnya efek kenaikan BBM di tahun lalu.

Indonesia’s Balance of Trade recorded a surplus of US$1.5 billion in December 2013, the highest in the last 2 years. Exports rose 6.5% on a YoY comparison in December 2013, while imports climbed 2.04%. GDP growth reached 5.72% YoY in 4Q13, but on a comparison with 3Q13, GDP growth slipped 1.42%. Looking ahead, inflation in 2014 is expected to be lower due to changes in the base year and because the impact of last year’s fuel price hikes will disappear.

Export

Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Indonesia GDP Year on Year 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

Calendar of Event 13-Feb-14 US Initial Jobless Claims (Survey : 330K Prior : 331K)

Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Finance 13-Feb-14 Germany CPI YoY (Survey : 1.3%; Prior : 1.3%) 13-Feb-14 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate (Survey : 7.5%; Prior : 7.5%)

Analysts Rifki Rizal 3509888 ext 3404 [email protected] Amir A. Dalimunthe 3509888 ext.3405 [email protected]

The average yield slope (the spread between the yield curve of 10-year and 2 year government bonds) rose 42bps to 161bps in February, meaning that the government bond yield curve is steepening. If Bank Indonesia lowers interest rates (the BI Rate), then the loan interest rate would fall, making Government bonds look more attractive, especially over the long term. As such, the yield on long tenors would decline and the yield curve would flatten.

Rata-rata yield slope (spread antara yield curve 10 dan 2-tahun) selama bulan Februari meningkat 42bps menjadi 161bps, artinya yield curve obligasi Pemerintah dalam proses steepening. Jika BI menurunkan tingkat suku bunga (BI Rate), maka tingkat tingkat suku bunga pinjaman akan turun dan membuat obligasi Pemerintah semakin menarik, terutama untuk jangka panjang, Sehingga yield untuk tenor panjang akan turun dan yield curve kembali flat.

Yield Slope and BI Rate 0.1

0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02

0.09 0.08 0.07

BI Rate (LHS) Yield Slope

0.06

www.danareksa.com

Source: Bloomberg

20-Jan-09

19-Dec-08

25-Nov-08

31-Oct-08

8-Oct-08

9-Sep-08

14-Aug-08

21-Jul-08

26-Jun-08

3-Jun-08

8-May-08

14-Apr-08

18-Mar-08

21-Feb-08

2-Jan-08

Please read important disclosure at the back of this report

29-Jan-08

0.05

10 - 14 February 2014

WEEKLY REPORT

MACROECONOMICS CONDITION

Falling Risk The yield index rose 5bps from 8.96% at the end of the previous week to 9.01% at the end of last week. The Indonesia Credit Default Swap (CDS), an indicator of investment risk, declined by 13bps last week. From the end of January 2014 until February 6, 2014, foreign holdings in government bonds rose by IDR540 billion to IDR329.19 trillion, while domestic bank holdings in Government bonds fell IDR4.17 trillion. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia increased its holdings by IDR3.1 trillion and reduced its Reverse Repo by the same amount. On the currency front, the rupiah strengthened by 0.43% against the US dollar last week from IDR12,213 per USD to IDR12,161 per USD.

Yield indeks naik 5bps dari 8,96% pada akhir mingu sebelumnya menjadi 9,01% pada akhir minggu lalu. CDS Indonesia yang menggambarkan risiko investasi mengalami penurunan 13bps selama minggu lalu. Sejak akhir Januari 2014 hingga 6 Februari 2014 kepemlikan asing meningkat Rp540 miliar menjadi Rp329,19 triliun sedangkan kepemilikan bank domestik turun hingga Rp4,17 triliun. Bank Indonesia dalam periode yang sama meningkatkan komposisi kepemilikannya terhadap obligasi Pemerintah sebesar Rp3,1 triliun dan mengurangi Reverse Repo dengan jumlah yang sama. Rupiah selama minggu lalu menguat 0,43% terhadap Dollar AS dari Rp12.213 per Dollar AS menjadi Rp12.161 per dollar AS.

Last week’s total trading in corporate bonds in the secondary market was dominated by trading in financial companies and banks (34.5% and 22.7% of the respective total trading).

Transaksi obligasi korporasi di pasar sekunder selama minggu lalu masih didominasi oleh sektor financial company dan banking masing-masing sebesar 34,5% dan 22,7%.

Yield Index

CDS 5-Year (bps)

7-Nov-13 12-Nov-13 15-Nov-13 20-Nov-13 25-Nov-13 28-Nov-13 3-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 11-Dec-13 16-Dec-13 19-Dec-13 24-Dec-13 2-Jan-14 7-Jan-14 10-Jan-14 16-Jan-14 21-Jan-14 24-Jan-14 29-Jan-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14

9.25% 9.00% 8.75% 8.50% 8.25% 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00%

250 225 200 175 150 125 100 4-Feb-14

10-Feb-14

28-Jan-14

22-Jan-14

9-Jan-14

16-Jan-14

24-Dec-13

18-Dec-13

6-Dec-13

12-Dec-13

2-Dec-13

3-Jan-14

Brazil

Turkey

Rupiah closed at Rp12,161 per USD

370 360 350 340 330 320

12,100

4-Nov-13 8-Nov-13 13-Nov-13 18-Nov-13 21-Nov-13 26-Nov-13 29-Nov-13 4-Dec-13 9-Dec-13 12-Dec-13 17-Dec-13 20-Dec-13 27-Dec-13 7-Jan-14 10-Jan-14 16-Jan-14 21-Jan-14

310

12,300

BI (RHS)

Domestic Bank

11,900 11,700 11,500 11,300

Foreign Investors

13-Nov-13 18-Nov-13 21-Nov-13 26-Nov-13 29-Nov-13 4-Dec-13 9-Dec-13 12-Dec-13 17-Dec-13 20-Dec-13 27-Dec-13 3-Jan-14 8-Jan-14 13-Jan-14 17-Jan-14 22-Jan-14 27-Jan-14 30-Jan-14 5-Feb-14 10-Feb-14

380

IDR trillion

130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40

390

IDR trillion

Philippines

Source: Bloomberg

Gov't Bonds Ownership

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Ministry of Finance Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor

Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector

1.20

Mining Oil & Natural Gas 14.3%

1.00 IDR trillion

26-Nov-13

Indonesia

Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg

RR-BI (RHS)

20-Nov-13

8-Nov-13

14-Nov-13

1-Nov-13

BI Rate Inflation Forecast

28-Oct-13

75 22-Oct-13

Yield Index (LHS) Inflation

275

Others 12.7%

0.80 Banking 22.8%

0.60

Consumer Goods 8.3%

0.40 0.20

Infrastructure 7.2%

0.00 0

1

2

3

4

Term to Maturity Source: IDX Process Data

5

6

7

Financial Company 34.7%

Source: IDX Process Data 2

10 - 14 February 2014

WEEKLY REPORT

Government BONDS REVIEW

Steepening Yield Curve The 5-year benchmark series was the only benchmark to see lower yields last week, even though the decline was not significant. The yield on FR0069 declined slightly by 2bps to 7.98%. Meanwhile, the yields on FR0070 and FR0071 increased by 8bps. High demand from investors for short-tenor instruments was reflected in changes to last week’s yield curve, resulting in a steeper government bonds yield curve. Total trading in Government bonds reached IDR47.18 trillion last week, or IDR7.03 trillion higher than in the previous week, with an average transaction of IDR18.3 billion. Overall, some 40% of the total trading was still dominated by medium tenors.

Yield seri benchmark 5-tahun menjadi satu-satunya benchmark yang mengalami penurunan selama minggu lalu walaupun tidak signifikan. Yield FR0069 turun 2bps menjadi 7,98% pada penutupan minggu lalu. Sementara itu, FR0070 dan FR0071 sama-sama mengalami peningkatan sebesar 8bps. Tingginya permintaan investor terhadap tenor pendek yang tercermin dari perubahan yield curve minggu lalu mengakibatkan bentuk yield curve yang steepening untuk obligasi Pemerintah. Total volume perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu sebesar Rp47,18 triliun, meningkat Rp7,03 dari minggu sebelumnya, dengan rata-rata volume setiap transaksi sebesar Rp18,3 miliar. Sementara itu, 40% dari total volume perdagangan masih didominasi oleh tenor menengah.

Spread INDON 10 year Over UST 10 year

Spread IDR Gov't Bond 10 year over INDON 10 year

2.0% 17-Jan-14

17-Dec-13

21-Nov-13

25-Oct-13

27-Sep-13

Daily Trading Volume 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

10-Feb-14

Corp

7-Feb-14

6-Feb-14

5-Feb-14

Govt Long

4-Feb-14

30-Jan-14

Govt Med

29-Jan-14

28-Jan-14

Govt Short

27-Jan-14

10-Feb-14

20-Jan-14

4-Dec-13

10.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 24-Dec-13

14-Nov-13

2-Oct-13

24-Oct-13

12-Sep-13

23-Aug-13

29-Jul-13

9-Jul-13

19-Jun-13

29-May-13

FR0068 - 20Y

8-May-13

FR0070 - 10Y

FR0071 - 15Y

18-Apr-13

FR0067 - 5Y

28-Mar-13

7-Mar-13

SUN 10Y

IDR trillion

15-Feb-13

INDON 10Y

Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate

Gov't Bonds Benchmark Series Yield

Source: IDX processed data

Source: Bloomberg

Yield Curve Change from 30 January to 7 February 2014

Yield Curve Comparison as of 10 February 2014

8.36%

9.19%

5.81%

9.51%

9.65%

9.76%

0.15%

6.38%

6.64%

6.83%

0.10%

3.39%

3.67%

0.05%

3.05%

4.21% 2.71% 1.47%

0.00% 0

0

8-Jul-13

31-Jan-13

Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)

INDON 10Y

Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate

10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

3-Sep-13

1.5%

27-Jan-14

23-Dec-13

25-Nov-13

UST 10Y

4.0%

2.0%

3-Feb-14

Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)

25-Oct-13

25-Sep-13

28-Aug-13

24-Jul-13

26-Jun-13

28-May-13

29-Apr-13

1-Apr-13

28-Feb-13

31-Jan-13

0.9%

6.0% 2.5%

1-Aug-13

1.4%

3.0%

12-Jun-13

1.8%

8.0%

16-May-13

2.3%

3.5%

19-Apr-13

2.7%

10.0%

26-Feb-13

3.2%

4.0%

25-Mar-13

6.6% 6.1% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1%

3.6%

5

10

15

20

25

30

2

4

6

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

-0.05%

Term to Maturity UST YC

GoI USD Yield Curve

Source: www.ustreas.gov, Danareksa Estimate

GoI IDR Yield Curve

-0.10%

Term to Maturity

Source: Danareksa Estimate 3

10 - 14 February 2014

WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 3 - 7 February 2014 Last Trade Date 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 3-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 3-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 3-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 3-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 5-Feb-14

Bonds SR003 SPNS04032014 SPN12140314 SPNS02042014 SPN03140408 SPN03140506 SPN03130807 SPN12140703 SPNS29072014 SPN12141009 FR0026 ORI008 SPN12141107 VR0019 VR0020 FR0027 SR004 ORI009 VR0021 SR005 VR0022 FR0030 FR0055 ORI010 VR0023 FR0060 FR0028 VR0025 VR0026 PBS001 FR0066 FR0038 FR0048 FR0069 FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0035 FR0043 FR0063 FR0046 FR0070 FR0044 FR0040 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0064 FR0071 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058 FR0065 FR0068 FR0045 FR0050 FR0062 PBS005

Maturity Coupon 23-Feb-14 4-Mar-14 14-Mar-14 2-Apr-14 8-Apr-14 6-May-14 7-May-14 3-Jul-14 29-Jul-14 9-Oct-14 15-Oct-14 15-Oct-14 7-Nov-14 25-Dec-14 25-Apr-15 15-Jun-15 21-Sep-15 15-Oct-15 25-Nov-15 27-Feb-16 25-Mar-16 15-May-16 15-Sep-16 15-Oct-16 25-Oct-16 15-Apr-17 15-Jul-17 25-Sep-17 25-Jan-18 15-Feb-18 15-May-18 15-Aug-18 15-Sep-18 15-Apr-19 15-Sep-19 15-Nov-20 15-Jun-21 15-Jul-21 15-May-22 15-Jun-22 15-Jul-22 15-May-23 15-Jul-23 15-Mar-24 15-Sep-24 15-Sep-25 15-Sep-26 15-May-27 15-Jul-27 15-Feb-28 15-May-28 15-Mar-29 15-Aug-30 15-Jul-31 15-Jun-32 15-May-33 15-Mar-34 15-May-37 15-Jul-38 15-Apr-42 15-Apr-43

8.15 11.00 7.95 3.75 4.81 9.50 6.25 6.25 3.75 6.00 3.75 10.75 7.38 8.50 4.81 6.25 10.00 3.75 4.81 4.50 5.25 5.19 9.00 7.88 11.50 11.00 12.80 8.25 7.00 12.90 10.25 5.63 9.50 8.38 10.00 11.00 8.38 7.00 10.25 10.00 6.13 9.00 10.50 9.50 8.25 6.63 8.38 9.75 10.50 6.38 6.75

Tenor 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.24 0.24 0.39 0.47 0.66 0.68 0.68 0.74 0.87 1.21 1.34 1.61 1.68 1.79 2.04 2.12 2.26 2.59 2.68 2.71 3.18 3.43 3.62 3.96 4.01 4.26 4.51 4.59 5.18 5.59 6.76 7.34 7.43 8.26 8.34 8.43 9.26 9.43 10.09 10.59 11.59 12.59 13.26 13.43 14.01 14.26 15.09 16.51 17.43 18.34 19.26 20.09 23.26 24.43 28.18 29.18

Last Done Price 99.90 99.70 99.63 99.34 99.27 98.97 98.62 97.76 97.31 95.40 102.40 97.40 95.41 99.10 99.50 101.90 96.00 96.75 99.45 96.10 98.27 106.22 99.50 100.90 98.25 95.50 106.15 98.00 97.60 79.00 90.00 112.60 103.25 99.25 113.55 112.25 120.75 97.13 88.25 122.00 106.50 79.80 102.00 96.05 105.00 111.75 94.40 80.00 106.00 103.94 73.75 98.00 107.49 100.75 86.30 73.00 89.25 101.88 108.11 67.24 100.00

Freq 12.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 18.00 1.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 8.00 15.00 1.00 24.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 156.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 5.00 1.00 13.00 2.00 1.00 14.00 1.00 54.00 2.00 8.00 4.00 2.00 3.00 1.00 11.00 90.00 4.00 7.00 24.00 22.00 36.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 267.86 245.00 18.15 25.00 405.00 65.91 165.24 20.00 400.00 220.00 70.00 24.53 50.00 1,170.00 1,471.40 647.33 128.18 162.16 350.00 645.64 275.00 74.30 45.58 3,433.31 460.00 215.60 20.00 100.00 127.88 0.50 838.10 2.00 62.00 905.97 88.46 966.32 221.20 49.69 1,844.11 110.00 23.32 1,292.78 0.99 10,116.93 79.47 913.24 239.54 1,100.09 48.86 63.40 831.16 9,502.91 855.76 270.56 1,804.94 1,235.43 2,303.84 1.00 16.33 40.91 48.00

Yield 8.16 0.30 0.37 0.67 0.73 1.04 1.40 2.30 2.76 4.82 7.32 8.16 4.81 3.78 4.83 7.97 6.51 6.46 3.77 6.24 3.82 7.70 7.59 8.42 4.90 7.87 7.92 3.83 4.93 11.11 8.06 8.21 8.14 8.05 8.41 8.57 8.89 8.78 9.05 9.08 9.13 8.86 9.18 8.98 9.25 9.32 9.13 9.71 9.45 9.49 9.52 9.25 9.59 9.41 9.88 9.76 9.59 9.54 9.63 9.82 6.75

Tenor Class < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr

Modified Duration 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.24 0.24 0.39 0.47 0.66 0.68 0.68 0.74 0.87 1.21 1.34 1.61 1.68 1.79 2.04 2.12 2.26 2.59 2.68 2.71 3.18 3.43 3.62 3.96 4.01 4.26 4.51 4.59 5.18 5.59 6.76 7.34 7.43 8.26 8.34 8.43 9.26 9.43 10.09 10.59 11.59 12.59 13.26 13.43 14.01 14.26 15.09 16.51 17.43 18.34 19.26 20.09 23.26 24.43 28.18 29.18

Source: Danareksa, BEI

4

10 - 14 February 2014

WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 3 - 7 February 2014 Last Trade Date 4-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 3-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 3-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 3-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 3-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 6-Feb-14

Bonds ASDF01ACN3 ADMF02ACN1 ASDF11F BCAF03D FIFA11C FIFA10D BCAF01BCN1 IMFI01ACN2 TAFS03A SIKISAT02 BBTN13C MEDC02B INDF05 PPGD13A1 TRAC03B ASDF02ACN1 BTPN01B ADMF04E ADMF02ACN2 CFIN03C PPLN07 SIMP01 PPKT02 SIKPPKT01 BNII01ACN1 SIKISAT04A ISAT07A ADMF01BCN1 SIKMAPI01B SMFP01CCN1 BBRI02 SANF02C ASDF01BCN1 FIFA01CCN1 SMFP01BCN2 ADMF01CCN2 BCAF01CCN1 IMFI01BCN1 TAFS02B IMFI04C ADMF01BCN3 BNGA01ACN2 FIFA01BCN2 BCAF01DCN1 IMFI01CCN1 TAFS03B BEXI01BCN3 PPLN08C SANF01BCN1 ADMF02BCN2 BNGA01BCN2 ISAT07B BMRI01 MEDC03 SIKPPLN01 PPLN09A BTPN01BCN2 APLN02 BNGA01BCN1 SSIA01B

Maturity Coupon 4-Mar-14 11-Mar-14 18-Mar-14 23-Mar-14 26-Apr-14 29-Apr-14 9-May-14 18-May-14 27-May-14 29-May-14 29-May-14 17-Jun-14 18-Jun-14 1-Jul-14 5-Jul-14 7-Jul-14 7-Oct-14 29-Oct-14 3-Nov-14 8-Nov-14 11-Nov-14 1-Dec-14 4-Dec-14 4-Dec-14 6-Dec-14 8-Dec-14 8-Dec-14 16-Dec-14 16-Dec-14 21-Dec-14 22-Dec-14 20-Jan-15 21-Feb-15 20-Apr-15 25-Apr-15 4-May-15 9-May-15 11-May-15 5-Jun-15 9-Jun-15 27-Sep-15 20-Nov-15 4-Apr-16 9-May-16 11-May-16 17-May-16 23-May-16 21-Jun-16 25-Sep-16 24-Oct-16 20-Nov-16 8-Dec-16 11-Dec-16 19-Jun-17 10-Jul-17 10-Jul-17 3-Aug-17 15-Aug-17 30-Oct-17 6-Nov-17

6.75 6.85 10.90 10.95 9.60 10.55 7.35 7.00 6.60 10.20 12.25 14.25 13.00 11.68 7.75 6.75 12.00 9.25 9.15 10.25 12.25 11.65 10.75 10.75 7.75 11.25 11.25 8.00 13.00 8.48 10.95 8.40 8.00 7.65 7.35 7.75 7.60 8.00 7.50 10.65 7.75 8.75 7.75 7.70 8.25 7.60 6.40 13.60 9.75 10.50 9.15 11.75 11.85 8.75 10.40 10.40 8.25 9.38 7.75 9.30

Tenor

Rating

0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.35 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.66 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.94 1.03 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.32 1.33 1.63 1.78 2.15 2.24 2.25 2.27 2.28 2.36 2.62 2.70 2.78 2.83 2.83 3.36 3.41 3.41 3.48 3.51 3.72 3.74

idAA+ idAA+ idAAAA+(idn) idAA idAAidAA+/AA+(idn) idA AAA(idn) idAA+(sy) AAAAAA AA+ idA+ idAA+ A+ idAA idAA+ idA+ idAA+ AAAAAAAAA(idn) AA+ AA+ idAA+ A+ AA(idn) AA+ idAAidAA+ idAA+ AA(idn) idAA+ idAA+/AA+(idn) idA idAA/AAA(idn) idA idAA+ idAAA idAA+/AAA(idn) idAA+/AA+(idn) idA AAA(idn) idAAA idAA+(sy) idAA-/AA(idn) idAA+ idAAA AA+ AA+ idAAidAA+(sy) idAA+ AA-(idn) idA IdAAA/AAA(idn) idA

Last Done Price 99.82 99.86 100.18 100.38 99.92 100.18 99.70 99.05 99.45 100.20 101.13 102.50 101.28 102.50 98.95 99.32 101.35 100.00 99.20 99.60 102.50 101.23 100.70 102.55 98.17 108.00 101.10 98.28 108.62 99.35 100.85 98.76 94.00 98.00 97.22 99.25 98.20 95.95 95.90 93.50 100.74 97.65 101.07 94.00 95.95 95.20 93.05 108.82 100.00 100.08 99.02 104.37 87.00 96.27 108.82 101.45 93.25 100.06 83.50 100.03

Freq 2.00 3.00 2.00 5.00 6.00 2.00 4.00 2.00 4.00 2.00 4.00 1.00 4.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 6.00 3.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 4.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 7.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 3.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 4.00 4.00 14.00 35.00 54.00 61.00 20.00 5.60 48.34 4.00 16.00 10.00 150.00 10.00 14.00 1.00 8.00 2.00 95.00 24.05 40.00 10.00 94.50 5.00 0.50 5.00 50.00 10.25 3.00 0.20 154.00 2.00 0.30 15.00 0.70 3.00 0.52 5.60 23.00 0.50 3.00 52.00 14.00 0.35 2.30 80.00 117.00 1.20 25.00 110.00 60.00 1.00 2.00 10.00 0.60 70.00 6.00 40.20 9.00 10.00

Yield 8.98 8.22 9.08 7.77 9.94 9.71 8.52 10.41 8.44 9.53 8.47 7.10 9.33 5.31 10.33 8.42 9.86 9.25 10.28 10.81 8.85 10.05 9.84 7.55 10.08 1.66 9.85 10.11 2.86 9.25 9.91 9.77 14.29 9.43 9.80 8.39 9.12 11.50 10.87 16.16 7.26 10.20 7.21 10.72 10.28 9.98 9.82 9.41 9.75 10.47 9.55 9.96 17.77 10.07 7.46 9.89 10.58 9.35 13.45 9.29

Modified Duration 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.22 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.35 0.39 0.41 0.41 0.63 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.71 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.78 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.82 0.91 0.96 1.13 1.14 1.18 1.17 1.15 1.23 1.19 1.52 1.61 1.96 2.00 1.99 2.02 2.07 2.01 2.28 2.33 2.39 2.36 2.27 2.84 2.88 2.84 2.98 2.91 3.11 3.14

Source: Danareksa, BEI

5

10 - 14 February 2014

WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading 3 - 7 February 2014 (Cont'd) Last Trade Date 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 3-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 5-Feb-14

Bonds SSIA01B PNBN04SB ASDF02CCN2 AKRA01A SMFP02BCN1 BTPN01BCN3 MEDC01CN2 AISA01 BSDE01CN2 APLN01CN1 BNGA01CCN2 BNII01SBCN1 SMRA01CN1 SISMRA01CN1 BEXI01CCN1 BBKP01SBCN1 BSBR02SB ISAT08A PNBN01SBCN1 AKRA01B JMPD14JM10 BBTN01CN1 PPLN12B

Maturity Coupon 6-Nov-17 9-Nov-17 26-Nov-17 21-Dec-17 27-Dec-17 5-Mar-18 15-Mar-18 5-Apr-18 5-Jun-18 27-Jun-18 20-Nov-18 6-Dec-18 11-Dec-18 11-Dec-18 20-Dec-18 6-Mar-19 26-Jun-19 27-Jun-19 20-Dec-19 21-Dec-19 12-Oct-20 5-Jun-22 8-Jul-22

9.30 10.50 9.75 8.40 7.50 8.25 8.50 10.25 8.38 9.25 9.75 10.00 10.85 10.85 8.50 9.25 10.15 8.63 9.40 8.75 9.35 7.90 10.40

Tenor

Rating

3.74 3.74 3.79 3.86 3.88 4.07 4.09 4.15 4.32 4.38 4.78 4.82 4.83 4.83 4.86 5.07 5.38 5.38 5.86 5.86 6.67 8.32 8.41

idA idAA-/A+(idn) idAA+/AAA(idn) idAAidAA AA-(idn) idAAidAidAAidA idAAA AA-(idn) idA+ idA+(sy) idAAA idA idAidAA+ idAAidAAidAA idAA/AA(idn) idAA+

Last Done Price 100.03 97.82 100.00 100.05 90.53 91.65 94.12 100.30 87.50 97.50 100.00 96.10 85.14 99.36 94.10 92.00 96.50 92.50 88.00 92.50 100.00 81.05 101.70

Freq 3.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 6.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 5.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 10.00 20.80 20.00 150.00 20.00 5.00 120.00 10.00 4.00 28.00 0.75 1.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 6.00 6.00 1.70 1.00 4.69 12.00 4.00 25.00

Yield 9.29 11.22 9.75 8.38 10.50 10.81 10.27 10.16 12.13 9.96 9.75 11.05 15.24 11.02 10.05 11.34 11.02 10.46 12.30 10.48 9.35 11.46 10.10

Modified Duration 3.14 2.98 3.10 3.24 3.27 3.34 3.36 3.33 3.46 3.52 3.71 3.71 3.53 3.67 3.87 3.89 4.03 4.17 4.28 4.43 4.90 5.65 5.55

Source: Danareksa, BEI

6

10 - 14 February 2014

WEEKLY REPORT

RESEARCH TEAM

Debt Research Fax No.

Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet [email protected]

(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1709

ext. 3400

Market Analyst Rifki Rizal [email protected]

ext. 3404

Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe [email protected]

ext. 3405

Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini [email protected]

ext. 3407

Ayesha Ardelia [email protected]

ext. 3406

Melissa Hartono [email protected]

ext. 3402

Debt Capital Market Division

Debt Capital Market Div. Fax No.

Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto [email protected]

Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D [email protected] Agung Suprihanto [email protected]

(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1724 / 25

ext. 3200

62 21) 3501088 ext. 3223

ext. 3212

Putrika Mayadipta [email protected]

ext. 3215

Ariningtyas W. Agustina [email protected]

ext. 3224

Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy [email protected]

ext. 3216

Debt Trading & Investment Romi Mulyadi [email protected]

ext. 3213

Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo [email protected]

ext. 3226

DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice

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