DAFTAR PUSTAKA Adriansyah. 1997. Analisis Permintaan Buah-buahan di Propinsi DKI Jakarta Suatu Penerapan Model Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) dengan Data Susenas 1996. Skripsi Sarjana. Jurusan Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Badan Agribisnis. 1999. Statistik dan Informasi Agribisnis. Badan Agribisnis, Departemen Pertanian, Jakarta. BPS. 1997. Statistik Indonesia. Biro Pusat Statistik, Jakarta. .
1999. Survei Susenas. Buku 3. Biro Pusat Statistik, Jakarta.
Dahl, D.C. dan J.W. Hammond. 1977. Market and Price Analysis Agricultural Industries. Mc.Graw-Hill, New York. Deptan. 2001. Informasi Hortikultura dan Aneka Tanaman. Direktorat Jenderal Bina Produksi Hortikultura, Departemen Pertanian, Jakarta. Deptan. 2002. Pola Pengembangan Institusi Pelayanan Pemasaran Hasil Pertanian Terminal dan Sub Terminal Agribisnis. Direktorat Jenderal Bina Pengolahan dan Pemasaran Hasil Pertanian, Departemen Pertanian, Jakarta. Wewi, W.K. 1998. Analisis Pendapatan Usahatani dan Pemasaran Komoditas Manggis. Studi Kasus Desa Sipak, Kecamatan Jasinga, Kabupaten Bogor, Propinsi Jawa Barat. Skripsi Sarjana. Jurusan Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Dongoran, A.S. 1998. Analisis Pemasaran Cabai Merah Besar (Capsicum annuum var. Longum) di DKI Jakarta. Kasus di Pasar Induk Kramat Jati, Pasar Jatinegara dan Pasar Tanah Abang DKI Jakarta. Skripsi Sarjana. Jurusan Ilmuilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Effendi, H.R. 1998. Analisis Deskripsi Sistem Tataniaga Komoditi Cabai Merah Clapsicurn annuum L. (Kasus pada 3 kabupaten di Jawa Tengah). Skripsi Sarjana. Jurusan Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.
F AO. 2001. FAOSTAT Agriculture Data, 1995 - 2000. http://www.fao.org. Firmansyah, E. 1998. Analisis Usahatani dan Pemasaran Bawang Daun di Desa Sukamaju, Kecamatan Kadudampit, Kabupaten Sukabumi. Skripsi Sarjana. Jurusan Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.
Garrett, B. 1997. Fruit and Vegetable Manual, Volume I - Fruit. Compiled by The Queensland Chamber of Fruit and Vegetable Industries Co-operative. Published by National Marketplace News, Bribane. Hadi, P.U., H. Mayrowani, Suprijati dan Sumedi. 2000. Review dan Outlook Pengembangan Komoditas Hortikultura. Makalah Seminar Nasional Perspektif Pembangunan Pertanian dan Kehutanan Tahun 2001 ke Depan. Pusat Penelitian Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian, Bogor. Heytens, P.J. 1986. Testing Market Integration. Food Research Institute Studies, 20(1): 25-4 1. Hutasoit, A.N. 1998. Peranan Pasar Induk Kramatjati dalam Pemasaran Buahbuahan di DKI Jakarta. Skripsi Sarjana. Jurusan Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Kohls, R.L dan J.N. Uhl. 1990. Marketing of Agricultural Products. Seventh Edition. MacMillan Publishing Company, New York. Kotler, P. 1986. Manajemen Pemasaran, Perencanaan dan Pengendalian. Erlangga, Jakarta. . 1993. Manajemen Pemasaran: Analisis, Perencanaan, Implementasi dan Pengendalian. Jilid 2. Edisi Keenam. Penerbit Salemba Empat, Jakarta.
Kumaat, R.M. 1992. Sistim Pemasaran Sayuran Dataran Tinggi di Propinsi Sulawesi Utara. Tesis Magister Sains. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Limbong, W.H. dan P. Sitorus. 1987. Pengantar Tataniaga Pertanian. Jurusan Ilmuilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Ma'mun. 1985. Keragaan Pemasaran Kentang dan Kubis di Jawa Barat dan Beberapa Faktor yang Mempengaruhinya. Tesis Magister Sains. Fakultas Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Mursito, D. 1999. Analisis Risiko pada Usaha Pemasaran Buah Lokal dan Buah Impor di Tingkat Pengecer Kotamadya Bogor. Aplikasi Model Portofolio Indeks Tunggal. Skripsi Sarjana. Jurusan Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Nurmalita, D. 1998. Analisis Pendapatan dan Tingkat Risiko Usaha Pada Sayuran Lokal dan Non Lokal. Studi Kasus Kelompok Tani pada Boga, Desa Ciherang, Kecamatan Pacet, Kabupaten Cianjur, Propinsi Jawa Barat. Skripsi Sarjana.
Jurusan Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Nuswamarhaeni, S., D. Prihatini dan E.P. Pohan. 1999. Mengenal Buah Unggul Indonesia. Penebar Swadaya, Jakarta. Puslitbanghort. 1995. Teknologi Produksi Salak. Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Hortikultura, Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian, Departemen Pertanian, Jakarta. Rahmatia, E. 1999. Analisis Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Perilaku Konsumen Dalam Proses Pembelian Buah (Kasus di DKI Jakarta). Skripsi Sarjana. Jurusan Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Ravallion, M. 1986. Testing Market Integration. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68(1):102-109. Sarwono, B. 1995. Jeruk dan Kerabatnya. Penebar Swadaya, Jakarta. Schoell, W.F. dan J.P. Guiltinan. 1990. Marketing Contemporary Concepts and Practices. Fourth Edition. Prentice Hall, Boston. Siagian, I. 1998. Analisis Efisiensi Pemasaran Duku (Lansium domesticum) Palembang dari Pasar Induk ke Pasar Eceran di DKI Jakarta. Skripsi Sarjana. Jurusan Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Silitonga, E.H. 1999. Analisis Efisiensi Pemasaran Sayuran Dataran tinggi Kabupaten Karo Propinsi Sumatera Utara. Tesis Magister Sains. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Tobing, M.P.L. 1989. Analisis Pembagian Pendapatan Usahatani dan Tataniaga Komoditas Bawang Merah. Studi Kasus di dua Desa Pulau Samosir Kabupaten Tapanuli Utara, Sumatera Utara. Tesis Magister Sains. Fakultas Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Tomek,W.G. dan K.L. Robinson. 1981. Agricultural Product Prices. Edition. Cornell University Press, Ithaca.
Second
LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Jumlah dan Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk Jakarta dan Indonesia Tahun 1971 - 1999
Sumber: BPS 1999a. Hal: 46-47 * tidak termasuk Timtim
Lampiran 2. Ekspor-Impor Buah Indonesia Tahun 1996 -- 2000
Sumber BPS, diolah Keterangan: - Data buah segarbeku terdiri dari 39 HS - Data buah olahanlkeringterdiri dari 64 HS
Lampiran 3. Perkembangan Pembangunan Terminal AgribisnisISub Terminal Agribisnis Lokasi
Wilayah
3. Silmsel
4. Riau
L
8. Banten
I b a b a r
1 11. Jateng
b,lvirgyakarta b a tim
t
16. Kalbar 17. Ealtim
Sumber: Deptan. 2002
Merek Kab. Solok I Kab. Jaka-Baring Palembang Oku & Oki, MUBA, Linggau Pagar Alam Kodya Batam Kab. Muara Bungo Kab. Rejang Lebong Bandar Lampung lam nun^ Timur CilegodSerang Tangerang Pluit-Jakarta Utara Pasar Induk Kramatjati
am
Marunda -Jakarta Utara Sukabumi [ Kuningan Majalengka Cirebon Brebes Magelang Semarang Sleman Yogyakarta Purwodadi-Pasuruan Sidoarjo Tabanan Singaraja Barito Kuala Pontianak Balikpapan/Samarinda Gowa Minahasa Tondano Kendari
Tahapan Pengembangan Studi kelayakan Operasional I Studi kelayakan Studi kelayakan Sosialisasi gagasan Studi kelayakan Studi kelayakan Rencana Studi kelayakan Operasional Rencana studi kelayakan Rencana Studi kelavakan Rencana Studi kelayakan Operasional Studi kelayakan Pembangunan Tahap I1 / (modemisasi sistem) Rencana realisasi fisik Operasional
Operasional Operasional berasional Operasional Studi kelayakan Operasional Operasional Operasional berasional Studi kelayakan berasional Operasional Operasional & pengembangan Studi kelayakan Rencana Studi kelayakan Operasional Tahap usulan Tahap usulan Studi kelayakan
Lampiran 4. Print Out Hasil Olahan Data APEL IMPOR Regression A~ialysis The regression equation is PaA = 829 + 0.565 PaA(t-I) + 0.548 Pk-Pk(t-1) + 0.398 Pk(t-I) 18 cases used 1 cases contain missing values Predictor Coef Co~istant 829.2 PaA(t-I) 0.5650 Pk-Pk(t0.5475 Pk(l-I) 0.3983
StDev 763.3 0.1932 0.1 14 1 0.1629
T P 1.09 0.296 2.92 0.01 1 4.80 0.000 2.45 0.028
A~ialysisof Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regressio~i 3 1 10 11737 3670579 87.25 0.000 Error 14 588958 42068 Tolal 17 11600694 Source PaA(t-I) Pk-Pk(IPk(t-I)
DF 1 1 1
Seq SS 98771 16 883095 251526
Unusual Observatio~ls Obs PaA(t-I) PaA Fit StDev Fit Residual St Resid 7 9750 9750.0 10234.6 94.6 -484.6 -2.66R 14 10500 11750.0 11367.3 157.1 382.7 2.90R
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.01
Regression Analysis Tlie regression equation is P,d3 = 910 + 0.882 PaB(t-I)
+ 0.239 Pk-Pk(t-I) + 0.048 Pk(t-I)
18 cases used 1 cases contain missing values Coef Prediclor Corista~it 9 10.5 Ptd3(t-I) 0.8818 0.2395 Pk-Pk(tPk(t-1) 0.0484
StDcv 827.1 0.1339 0.1373 0.1121
T 1.10 6.59 1.74 0.43
P 0.290 0.000 0.103. 0.673
Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 3 90203 14 300677 1 53.57 0.000 Error 14 785797 56128 Total 17 9806111 Source PaB(t-1) Pk-Pk(1Pk(t-1)
DF Seq SS 1 8846065 1 163789 1 10459
Unusual Observations PC* Obs P&(t-1) 9 10650 11500.0
Fit StDev Fit Residual 10861.4 80.4 638.6
St Resid 2.87R
R denotes an observation wit11 a large sta~~dardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.72
Regression Analysis The regression equation is PaC = 665 + 0.778 PaC(1-I) + 0.177 Pk-Pk(t-1) + 0.189 Pk(t-1) 18 cases used 1 cases contain nlissing values Predictor Coef Constant 665.3 PaC(1-I) 0.7783 Pk-Pk(t0.1774 Pk(t-1) 0.1891
StDcv 834.4 0.1719 0.1648 0.1599
T 0.80 4.53 1.08 1.18
P 0.439 0.000 0.300 0.256
Analysis of Variance
F P Source DF SS MS Regression 3 11891907 3963969 5 1.80 0.000 Error 14 1071298 76521 Total 17 12963205 Source PaC(t-1) Pk-Pk(tPk(t-1)
DF Seq SS 1 11754972 1 2981 1 1 107124
Unusual Observatio~ls Obs PaC(t-1) PaC Fit StDev Fit Residual St Resid 10 10071 11153.0 10251.1 116.9 901.9 3.60R R de~lotesan observation with a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.04
Regression Analysis The regressiorl equation is PaD = 684 + 0.752 PaD(t-1) + 0.157 Pk-Pk(t-1) + 0.214 Pk(t-1) 1 8 cases used I cases contain ~llissillgvalues
StDev Predictor Coef Co~lsta~lt 684.2 743.1 PaD(t-I) 0.7520 0.13 14 Pk-Pk(1- 0.15729 0.09779 Pk(t-1) 0.21356 0.09466
T P 0.92 0.373 5.72 0.000 1.61 0.130 2.26 0.041
Analysis of Variance SS MS F P Source DF Regression 3 810401 1 2701337 89.49 0.000 Error 14 422598 30186 Total 17 8526609 Sotirce PaD(t-I) Pk-Pk(tPk(t-I)
DF 1 1
1
Seq SS 7917065 33305 153641
U ~ ~ r ~ sObservatio~~s ual Obs PaD(t-I) PaD Fit StDev Fit Residual 10 10000 10583.0 10189.4 92.6 393.6
St Resid 2.68R
R dc~~oles an observation with a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.06
JERUK IMPOR Regression A~ralysis The regression equation is PjA = 1148 + 0.558 PjA(t-I)
+ 0.299 Pk-Pk(t-1) + 0.422 Pk(t-1)
I8 cases used 1 cases contain missing values Predictor Constant P A - 1 Pk-Pk(tPk(t-1)
Coef 1148 0.5583 0.2990 0.4222
StDev 1246 0.2554 0.2390 0.2166
T 0.92 2.19 1.25 1.95
P 0.373 0.046 0.231 0.072
Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Pegression 3 17837203 5945734 26.91 0.000 Error 14 3093507 220965 Total 17 20930710 Sorircc P.jA(t-1) Pk-Pk(tPk(t-I)
DF Seq SS 1 16983731 1 13733 1 839739
Unusual Observations PjA Obs PjA(t-I) 14 9000 10563 17 10563 11925
Fit StDev Fit Residual 9341 224 1222 11128 275 797
St Resid 2.96R 2.09R
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.83
Regression Analysis Tlle regression equation is PjB = 985 + 0.744 PjB(t-I) + 0.012 Pk-Pk(t-1) + 0.225 Pk(t-1) 18 cases used 1 cases contain nlissing values
Predictor Coef Colistar~t 984.6 0.7438 P.jB(t-I) Pk-Pk(t0.01 18 Pk(t-1) 0.2254
StDev 957.1 0.1348 0.1552 0.1107
T 1.03 5.52 0.08 2.04
P 0.32 1 0.000 0.941 0.061
Analysis or Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 3 13581482 4527161 33.34 0.000 Error 14 1900865 135776 Total 17 15482347 Source PjB(t-I) Pk-Pk(1Pk(t-I)
DF Seq SS 1 13013818 1 5336 1 562328
Umsual Observations Obs PjB(t-I) PjB 6 8667 10000.0
Fit StDev Fil Residual 9205.8 209.4 794.2
St Resid 2.62R
R denotes an observatiot~wit11 a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson slalistic = 2.18
Regression Analysis T l ~ eregression equation is PjC = 257 + 0.786 PjC(t-I)
+ 0.338 Pk-Pk(t-I) + 0.247 Pk(t-I)
18 cases used I cases contain lnissing values Predictor Coef Co~istant 257.4 0.7859 P.jC(t-I) Pk-Pk(t0.3376 Pk(1-I) 0.2469
StDev 868.3 0.1574 0.1704 0.1468
T 0.30 4.99 1.98 1.6
P 0.771 0.000 0.068 0.115
Aualysis of Variance
DF SS MS F P Source Regression 3 205278 17 6842606 43.58 0.000 Error 14 2198285 157020 Total 17 22726102
Source P.jC(t-1) Pk-Pk(tPk(t-1)
DF Seq SS 1 19662772 1 420909 1 444136
Uiiusrlal Observations Obs PjC(t-1) PjC 17 10156 11813.0
Fit StDev Fit Residual St. Resid 3.08R 10797.4 219.0 1015.6
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual Dorbin-Watson statistic = 2.13
Regression A ~ ~ n l y s i s T l ~ eregression equation is P.jD = - 191 + 0.782 PjD(t-I)
+ 0.063 Pk-Pk(t-1) + 0.315 Pk(t-1)
18 cases used I cases conlain ~nissingvalues
Predictor Coef Constant -191 P.jD(t-1) 0.7823 Pk-Pk(t0.0632 Pk(t-I) 0.3148
StDev 1038 0.2192 0.3044 0.2535
T -0.18 3.57 0.21 1.24
P 0.856 0.003 0.838 0.235
Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 3 32366389 10788796 29.79 Error 14 5070525 362180 Total 17 37436914 Source P.jD(t-1) Pk-Pk(tPk(t-1)
0.000
Seq SS DF 1 3 1714378 1 93745 1 558266
Unusual Observations PjD Obs PjD(t-1) 14 8500 10667
Fit StDev Fit Residual 8904 254 1763
St Resid 3.23R
R denotes an observation wit11 a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.83
ANGGUR Regression Analysis The regression equation is PgA = - 2198 + 1.01 PgA(t-I)
+ 0.1 10 Pk-Pk(t-I) + 0.0865 Pk(t-I)
18 cases used 1 cases contain missing values P StDev T Predictor Coef -0.88 0.393 -2198 2493 Constant 12.56 0.000 PgA(t-I) 1.01249 0.08059 3.36 0.005 Pk-Pk(t- 0.10992 0.03272 2.05 0.060 0.08647 0.04222 Pk(t-1)
Analysis of Variance Sowce DF SS Regression 3 2778625 Error 14 221375 Total 17 3000000 Source DF PgA(t-1) 1 Pk-Pk(t1 Pk(t-1) 1
MS F P 926208 58.57 0.000 15812
Seq SS 2595339 116964 66322
Unusual Observations PgA Fit StDev Fit Residual Obs PgA(t-1) 6 23000 23500.0 23496.7 121.9 3.3 7 23500 23500.0 23488.4 121.2 11.6 1 0 23500 24000.0 23560.6 32.6 439.4
St Resid 0.11 X 0.35 X 3.62R
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual X denotes an observatio~iwllose X value gives it large influence. Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.10
Regression Analysis The regression equation is PgC = - 1717 + 0.915 PgC(t-I) - 0.0353 Pk-Pk(t-I) 18 cases used I cases contain missing values
+ 0.167 Pk(t-I)
StDev T P Predictor Coef 4157 -0.41 0.686 Corlstant -1717 0.1261 7.25 0.000 0.9151 PgC(t-I) Pk-Pk(t- -0.0353 1 0.05 134 -0.69 0.503 2.28 0.039 Pk(t-1) 0.16656 0.07293
Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 3 2940264 980088 24.51 0.000 Error 14 559736 39981 Total 17 3500000 Source PgC(t-I) Pk-Pk(tPk(t-1)
DF Seq SS 1 2251838 1 47991 1 1 208515
Unusual Observations PgC Fit StDcv Fit Residual Obs PgC(t-I) 0 23000 23000.0 22970.8 193.3 29.2 7 23000 24000.0 23919.0 9 21 8 1.0 13 24000 23500.0 23970.3 62.3 -470.3 15 23500 24000.0 23512.8 56.9 487.2
St Resid 0.57 X 1.46 X -2.48R
2.54R
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual X denotes an observation wllose X value gives it large influence. Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.96
Regression Analysis Tile regression equation is PgD = 5820 + 0.665 PgD(t-1) - 0.0103 Pk-Pk(t-I) 18 cases used 1 cases contain ~tlissingvalues StDev Predictor Coef 4069 Constant 5820 0.6648 0.1569 PgD(t-1) Pk-Pk(t- -0.0103 1 0.06818 Pk(t-1) 0.09630 0.08938
T P 1.43 0.175 4.24 0.001 -0.15 0.882 1.08 0.299
+ 0.0963 Pk(t-1)
Analysis of Variance Source DF SS Regression 3 1936166 Error 14 1247862 Total 17 3 184028 Source PgD(t-I) Pk-Pk(tPk(t-I)
DF 1 1
1
MS F P 645389 7.24 0.004 89133
Seq SS 1723676 109006 103484
Unusual Observations PgD Obs PgD(t-I) 5 23000 24000.0 6 24000 24000.0 7 24000 24250.0 10 24250 23500.0
Fit StDev Fit Residual St Resid 2.43R 23363.1 142.5 636.9 23919.7 289.5 80.3 1.10X -1.72 X 24388.6 287.4 -138.6 24091.1 113.8 - 5 9 . 1 -2.14R
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual X denotes an observation wllose X value gives it large influence. Durbin-Watson statistic = 1 .88
APEL LOKAL Regressioil Analysis The regression equation is PalC = 575 + 0.807 PalC(1-I) + 0.1IS Pk-Pk(t-I)
*
+ 0.123 Pk(t-I)
18 cases used I cases contain lnissing values StDev Predictor Coef Constant 575.3 548.1 PalC(1-I 0.80705 0.09883 Pk-Pk(t- 0.1 1508 0.05886 Pk(t-I) 0.12261 0.04346
T
P
1.05 0.312 8.17 0.000 1.96 0.071 2.82 0.014
Analysis of Variance
SS MS F P Source DF Regression 3 3248781 1082927 40.21 Error 14 377013 26929 Tola1 17 3625794 Source PalC(1-1 Pk-Pk(LPk(t-I)
0.000
DF Seq SS 1 2979317 1 55076 1 214389
Uuusual Observations PalC Fit StDev Fit Residual Obs PalC(1-1 10 6417 6833.0 6537.3 72.8 295.7 13 6750 6583.0 6562.2 146.6 20.8 19 6000 6333.0 5998.0 59.3 335.0
St Resid 2.01R 0.28 X 2.19R
R denotes an observatioli wit11 a large standardized residi~al X denotes an observatioll whose X value gives it large influence. Durbin-Watson statislic = 1.97
Regression Analysis The regression equation is PalD = 2157 + 0.432 PalD(t-1) + 0.144 Pk-Pk(t-I) 18 cases used 1 cases contain tnissit~gvalues
+ 0.260 Pk(t-1)
Predictor StDev Coef 2157.3 732.3 Constant 0.4315 PalD(t-1 0.1677 Pk-Pk(t- 0.14351 0.05464 Pi(-) 0.25977 0.07377
T 2.95 2.57 2.63 3.52
P 0.01 1 0.022 0.020 0.003
Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 3 3257842 1085947 46.53 Error 14 326771 23341 Total 17 3584612 Source PalD(1-I Pk-Pk(tPk(t-I)
0.000
DF Seq SS 1 2925508 1 42884 1 289450
Unnsual Observations 9bs PalD(t-1 PalD Fit StDev Fit Residual St Resid 6 6083 6417.0 6096.3 45.2 320.7 2.20R I3 6667 6500.0 0442.4 136.7 57.6 0.85 X 14 6500 6000.0 6062.5 124.7 -62.5 -0.71 X
R denotes an observatio~iwith a large standardized residual X denotes an observatio~lwllose X value gives it large influence. Dnrbiu-Watson statistic = 1.74 Saving workslieet in file: C:\A lena!\data\apellok-al.MTW * NOTE * Existing file replaced.
JERUK LOKAL Regressio~iAnalysis The regression equation is PjlA = 812 + 0.839 PjlA(t-I)
+ 0.141 Pk-Pk(t-I) - 0.0229 Pk(t-I)
18 cases used 1 cases contain n~issingvalues Predictor Coef Constant 812.5 P-jlA(t-1 0.8389 Pk-Pk(t0.1407 Pk(t-I) -0.02290
T 1.12 4.74 1.33 -0.25
StDev 723.9 0.1771 0.1058 0.09300
P 0.281 0.000 0.205 0.809
Analysis of Variance SS Source DF Regression 3 351612 krror 14 152729 Total 17 504340 Source P.jlA(I-1 Pk-Pk(tPk(t-I)
DF 1 1 1
MS F P 117204 10.74 0.001 10909
Seq SS 3 17924 33027 66 1
Ul~l~sual Observations P-jlA Obs PjlA(t-1 13 4875 4500.0
Fit StDev Fit Residual 4825.7 39.2 -325.7
St Resid -3.36R
R denotes an observation wit11 a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.75
Tlle regression equation is P-jlB = 1303 + 0.703 PjlB(t-I)
+ 0.138 Pk-Pk(t-I) + 0.0135 Pk(t-I)
1 8 cases used I cases conlaill lnissi~lgvalues
Coer SlDev Predictor 809.9 Constanl 1302.8 PjlB(t-1 0.7034 0.1933 0.1377 0.1074 Pk-Pk(tPk(t-I) 0.01349 0.09040
T P 1.61 0.130 3.64 0.003 1.28 0.221 0.15 0.883
Analysis of Variance
DF SS Source Regression 3 21 1787 Error 14 166090 Total 17 377877 Source P.jlB(t-1 Pk-Pk(tPk(t-1)
DF 1 1 1
MS 70596 11864
F 5.95
P 0.008
Seq SS 188404 23 119 264
U~lusualObservations Obs PjlB(1- I P-jlB 10 4833 4500.0 12 4500 4333.0
Fit StDev Fit Residual 4713.0 64.3 -213.0 4547.9 39.7 -214.9
St Resid -2.42R -2.12R
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.77
Regressio~rAnalysis Tllc regression equation is I'jlC = 487 + 0.874 PjlC(t-I) - 0.0465 Pk-Pk(1-I) + 0.0247 Pk(1-I) 18 cases used 1 cases contain rtlissing values StDev T P Predictor Coef Constant 487.4 500.0 0.97 0.346 0.1163 7.52 0.000 P-jlC(t-1 0.8745 Pk-Pk(t- -0.04654 0.05812 -0.80 0.437 0.53 0.602 Pk(t-1) 0.02475 0.04642
Analysis of Variance Source DF SS Regression 3 23 1120 Error 14 50130 Total 17 281250 Source P.ilC(t- 1 Pk-Pk(tPk(t-I)
DF 1 1 1
Seq SS 225000 5 103 1018
MS 77040 3581
F P 21.52 0.000
Unusual Observations PjlC Obs PjlC(t-l 11 4250 4500.0
Fit StDev Fit Residual 4299.5 26.6 200.5
St Resid 3.74R
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.21
Regression A ~ ~ a l y s i s Tlie regression equation is P-jlD = 3246 + 0.101 PjlD(1-I) + 0.141 Pk-Pk(t-I) + 0.155 Pk(t-I) 18 cases used I cases contain missing values Predictor Coef Constant 3246 P.jlD(t-1 0.1006 Pk-Pk(t- 0.14056 Pk(t-1) 0.1553
StDev 1359 0.3963 0.07573 0.1015
T P 2.39 0.032 0.25 0.803 1.86 0.085 1.53 0.148
Analysis of Variance Source DF Regression 3 14 Error Total 17
SS 58235 39265 97501
Source FjlD(t-1 Pk-Pk(tPk(t-1)
Seq SS 48563 3 114 655'9
DF 1 1
1
MS 19412 2805
F P 6.92 0.004
Unusual Observations Obs P.jlD(t-1 PjlD Fit StDev Fit Residual 5 4000 4167.0 4037.1 25.9 129.9
St Resid 2.81R
R denotes an observatiou with a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.02 Saving workslieet in file: C:\A lena!\data\jeruklok-a.MTW * NOTE * Existing file replaced.
Analysis of Variance Source DF SS Regression 3 1012003 Error 14 104108 Total 17 1116111 Source PsB(t-1) Pk-Pk(tPk(t-I)
DF 1 1 1
MS F P 337334 45.36 0.000 7436
Seq SS 959534 24451 28018
Unusual Observations Obs PsB(t-1) PsB Fit StDev Fit Residual 6 5500 5800.0 5602.0 44.1 198.0 15 5900 6200.0 6067.2 58.4 132.8
St Resid 2.67R 2.09R
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual Diirbin-Watson statistic = 1.94
18 cases used I cases contain missing values StDev Predictor Coef 683.2 Constant 1893.4 PC([-1) 0.6377 0.129 1 Pk-Pk(t- 0.0 1964 0.02500 Pk(t-I) 0.08179 0.03266
T 2.77 4.94 0.79 2.50
P 0.015 0.000 0.445 0.025
Analysis of Variance Source DF SS Regression 3 201415 Error 14 17335 Total 17 218750 Source PsC(t-I) Pk-Pk(lPk(t-I)
DF 1 I 1
Seq SS 193 130 520 7766
MS 67138 1238
F P 54.22 0.000
SALAK Regression Analysis The regression equation is PsA = 702 + 0.853 PsA(t-1) + 0.0917 Pk-Pk(t-I)
f
0.0492 Pk(t-I)
18 cases used I cases contain tnissing values StDcv T P Predictor Coef Consla~il 702 1157 0.61 0.554 PsA(t-I) 0.8530 0.2075 4.11 0.001 Pk-Pk(t- 0.09 175 0.08162 1.12 0.280 Pk(t-I) 0.04922 0.07141 0.69 0.502
Analysis of Variance DF SS Source Regression 3 41 1021 Error 14 213979 Total 17 625000 Source PsA(t-I) Pk-Pk(tPk(t-I)
DF 1 1 1
MS F P 137007 8.96 0.001 15284
Seq SS 390625 13 136 7260
I
Unnsual Observations PsA Fit StDev Fit Residual Obs PsA(t-I) 17 6000 6500.0 6072.0 46.9 428.0
St Resid 3.74R
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.75
Regression Analysis The regression equalion is PsB = 1432 + 0.621 PsB(t-I) + 0.166 Pk-Pk(t-1) + 0.190 Pk(t-I) 18 cases used 1 cases contain lnissing values StDev Predictor Coef Constant 1432.1 690.1 PsB(t-I) 0.6208 0.1772 Pk-Pk(t- 0.16631 0.06384 Pk(t-1) 0.18955 0.09765
T 2.08 3.50 2.61 1.94
P 0.057 0.004 0.021 0.073,
U~iusttalObservations Obs PsC(1-I) PsC Fit StDev Fil Residual 7 6000 6125.00 6056.83 19.04 68.17 9 6125 6250.00 6179.49 18.43 70.51
St Resid 2.30R 2.35R
R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statislic = 2.16
Regression Analysis Tlie regression equalion is PsD = 2080 + 0.605 PsD(t-1) + 0.0215 Pk-Pk(t-I)
+ 0.0575 Pk(t-1)
18 cases used I cases contain tnissing values StDev Predictor Coef 1 145 Constant 2080 0.2079 PsD(1-I) 0.6054 Pk-Pk(t- 0.02152 0.03583 Pk(t-I) 0.05749 0.03430
P T 1.82 0.091 2.91 0.01 1 0.60 0.558 1.68 0.116
A~ialysisof Variance SS Source DF .Regression 3 72756 Error 14 41788 Total 17 114544 Sot~rce PsD(t-1) Pk-Pk(tPk(t-1)
DF 1 I 1
MS 24252 2985
F P 8.12 0.002
Seq SS 64357 15 8384
Unusual Observations PsD Fit StDev Fit Residual St Resid Obs PsD(1-1) 10 5917 5750.0 5909.9 16.0 -159.9 -3.06R R denotes an observation wit11 a large standardized residual Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.70 Saving worksheet in file: C:\A letia!\data\sal,?k-a1.MTW * NOTE * Existing file replaced.
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