DAFTAR PUSTAKA Anonim. 2000a. Bahan pelatihan pernodelan wi Iayah : tingkat pernusatan aktivi tas suatu wilayah. Program Studi Ilmu Perencanaan Pembangunan Wilayah dan Perdesaan Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor. Anonim. 2000b. Kerjasama ASEAN di Bidang Usaha Kecil dan Menengah. Proyek Peningkatan Kerjasama ASEAN Departemen Luai Negeri Republik Indonesia. Anwar, A dan Hadi, S. 1996. Perencanaan pembangunan wiIayah dan perdesaan ddam Prisma No. Khusus 25 Tahun 1971-1996. LP3ES. Jakarta. Anwar, A. 1998. Organisasi Ekonomi: Konsep PiIihan Aktivitas Ekonomi melalui Kelembagaan Pasar atau Orgmisasi. Bahan Perkuliahan Sistem Organisasi Ekonomi dan Sosial Perdesaan. Program Studi Ilmu Perencanaan Pembangunan Wilayah d m Perdesaan. Program Pascasarjana. Institut Pertanian Bogor.
Anwar, A. 1999. Konsep Ek~nomiProduksi. Bahan Perkuliahan Konsep Ekonomi Mikro. Program Studi Ilmu Perencanaan Pernbangunan Wilayah dan Perdesaan. Program Pasmarjana. lnstitut Pertanian Bogor. Anwar, A. 2000. Ekonomi Organisasi : Konsep Pilihan Aktivitas Ekonomi meldui Kelernbagaan Pasar atau Organisasi. Bahan Perkuliahan Sistem Organisasi Ekonomi dan Sosial Perdesaan. Program Studi Ilmu Perencanaan Pembangunan Wilayah dan Perdesaan. Program Pascasarjana. Institut Pertanian Bogor.
Anwar, A. 200 1 . Kebijaksanaan desentralisasi fiskal suatu kerangka pernikiran Gbagai salah satu aspek penting dalam pelaksanaan otonomi daerah. Makalah disarnpaikan pada Simposium Nasional "Forum Mahsiswa Pascasarjana Indonesia" di Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor 15 I 7 Pebruari 200 1.
-
Arsyad, L. 1999. Pengantar Perencanaan d m Pembangunan Ekonomi Daerah Edisi Pertama. BPFE Jakarta.
Bappeda Kota Palembang. 1999. hdikator Ekonomi Kotamadya Palembang 1997. Bappeda Kota Palernbang. Palembang.
2000.
Fernetaan Produk Unggdan Daerah Kota
Baswir, R. 1995. Industri Kecil dan Konglomerasi di Indonesia. Prospek Kemitraan ddam Prisma No. 10 - 1995. LP3ES Jakarta.
Berry, A and LRvyu, B. 1994. Indonesia's Small and Medium-Size Exporters and Their Support Systems. Policy Research Working Paper. The World Bank. Cahyono, T. 1 983. Pengembangan Kesempatan Keja. BPFE Jogyakarta. Depa-temen Perindustrian clan Perdagangan. 1998. Kebijakan Pembangunan Industri dan Perdagangan Tahun Anggaran 1998/1999 (Yang Disempurnakan).
Fauzi, A. 200 1 . Prinsip-prinsip peneiitian sosial ekonomi. Panduan singkat. Jurusan Sosial Ekonomi Perikanan d m Kelautan. Institut Pertanian Bogor. Gujarati, I). 1999. Ekonornetrika Dasar. Penerbit Erlangga. Jakarta.
Hamid, ES dan Hendrie, AMB. 2000. Ekonomi Indonesia Memasuki 111. UII Press Jogyakarta.
Milenium
Henderson, JM and Quandt, RE. 1971. Micro Economic Theory. Mathematical Approach. Second Fdition. Mc Graw-Hill Kogakusha, LTD. Jayadinata, JT. 1999. Tata Guna Tanah dalarn Perencanaan Perdesaan, Perkotaaan dan Wilayah Edisi Ketiga. Penerbit ITB Bandung. Johnston, RJ and Semple, RK. 1983. Classification Using Information Statistic. Published by Geo Books, Nowich. Printed by Headley Brothers Ltd, Kent.
Kadariah. 1978. Ekonomi Perencanaan. Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Jakarta.
UI
Ketetapan-Ketetapan MPR 1999. 1999. Sinar Grafika.
Kim Wie, T. 1988. Industridisasi Indonesia Analisis dm Catatan Krisis. Pustaka Sinar Harapan Kian Wie, T. 1994. Industrialisasi di Indonesia. Beberapa Kajian. LP3ES Jakarta.
Kian Wie, T. 1998. Mengembangkan Daya Saing Industri Kecil dm Menengah di Era Perdagangan Bebas dalam Dampak Globalisasi Vol. I11 Industrialisasi dm Kesinambungan Pernbangunan. F h l t a s Ekonomi Universitas Terbuka Jakarta.
Koutsoyiannis, A. 1982. Modern Microeconomic. Sewnd Edition. The Macmillan Press LTD.
MI, S, Shalizi, Z and Deichrnan, U,
2001. Agglomeration Economies and Productivity in Indian Industry. The World Bank.
Masyhuri. 2000. Industri Kecil, Pemerataan, dan Pengembangan Ekonomi Kerakyatan dalam Indonesia Menapak Abad 21 Kajian Ekonomi d m Politik. IPSK-LIPI. Milleniurn Publisher PT. Dyatama Milenia.
Nikoyan, A. 1998. Analisis Ekonomi Kelembagam Kernitram Usaha Masyarakat Nelayan dengan Industri Perikanan di Kawasan Teluk Kendari Kotamadya Kendari Propinsi Sulawesi Tenggara. Tesis. Program Pascasarjana Institut Pertanian Bogor. Priyono, E. 1998. Masalah di Bidang Kernitram dalam Masalah-Masdah di Seputar Usaha Kecil Indonesia. Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Usaha. ISEI KADIN TAF.
I
Riyadi, DMM. Implementasi Otonomi Daerah : Perspektif Fernanfaatan Surnber Daya Alam dm Pengembangan Wilayah. Makalah Serniloka Nasiond Pembangunan Wilayah dalam Perspektif Otonomi Daerah dm Wacana Federasi. 2000. Richardson, HW. Terjemahan : Paul Sihotang. 1977. Dasar-dasar Ilmu Ekonomi Regional. Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia.
Rustiadi, E, Mizuno, K and Kobayashi, S. 1999. Measuring Spatial Patterns of The Suburbanization Process. Acase Study of Bekasi District, Indonesia. Simatupang, P. 1994, Prosiding Seminar Sehari Peranan Strategis Industri Kecil dalarn PJPT 11 Jakarta, 22 Juli 1993. LP UKI Press Jakarta.
Supratikno, H. 1994. Pengembangan Industri Kecil di Indonesia dalam Prisma No. 9. LP3 ES Jakarta. Shukla, A. 2000. Regional Planning and Sustainable Development. Publisher, Distributors New Delhi.
Kanishka
Swasono, SE. 1994. Pengembangan Industri Kecil Sebagai Ekonomi Rakyat dalarn Prosiding Seminar Nasional Sehari "Peranan Strategis Industri Kecil dalam PJPT 11. Jakarta, 22 Juli 1993. LP UKI . UKI Press Jakarta. Tarnbunan, IITH. 2000. Perekonomian Indonesia Beberapa Isu Penting. Ghalia Indonesia.
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Thoha, M. 2000. Pengembangan Ekonomi Kerakyatan : Kekuatan, Kelemahan, Tantangan dan Peluang dalam Indonesia Menapak Abad 2 1 Kajian Ekonomi dm Politik. IPSK-LIPI, Milleniurn Publisher PT.Dyatama Milenia. Todaro, MP. 1999. Pembangunan Ekonomi di Dunia Ketiga Jilid 1 Edisi Enam (Tejemahan). Penerbit Erlangga. Tri Cahyono, B . 1 983. Pengembangan Kesempatan Kej a . BPFE Jogyakarta.
Varian, HR. 1992. Microeconomic AnaIysis. Third Edition. W.W. Norton and Company. New York. London. Wiyatingsih, S. 2000. Indonesia in Promotion of Rural-Based Small Industries in Asia and The Pasific. Asian Productivity Organization.
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Lampiran 2. Peta Kecamatan Ciampea Kabupaten Bogor
Lampiran 3. Hasil analisis shiji share sektor industri Kota Palembang tahun 1996 dan tahun 2000 I. KOMPONEN PERTUMBUHAN REGIONAL
Tenaga Kerja (erg) ,
YO 4.375
1550
IL KOMPONEN PERTUMBUHAN PROPORSIONAL
I
I
I
Kategori
I
larnban
cepat .
-
I
lamban
--
I
cepat
I
111. KOMPONEN PERTUMBUHAN PANGSA KECAMATAN
06 Ilir Timur I1
07 Sako 08 Sukarami
- 1.049
-66.859
0.000
208.416
4.606
265.667
5.207
-73.959
0.000
-155.666
-5.515
- 1.075
-73.959
0.000
-1 18.444
- 10.802
-67.72 1 -346.209
cepat lamha" P
lamban
Lanjutan Lampiran 4.
Ilir Barat I1 Seberang Ulu I Seberang Ulu I1 Ilir B m t I Ilir Timur I Ilir Timur IT Sako Sukarami JUMLAH
Sebaran tiap industri per kecamatan tahun 1996 : H = 1.0335
tampiran 5 . Hasil analisis entropy sektor industri Kota Palembang tahun 1997 dm tahun 1998
3 4 5 6 7
Seberang U1u I1
4272
Ilir Barat I Ilir Timur I
3908 5382 5 1 19
8
Sukararni
Ilir Tirnur I1 Sako
JUMLAH
1122 2823
223 186 591
338 60
194
0 5
50 145
89 82
160 245
13 25
180
62
4545 0.1319 4244 0.1207 6222 0.1662 5784 0.1581
0.1132 0.0944 0.3000 0.1716 1257 0.0347 0.0305 3222 0.0872 0.0985
0.0000 0.0497 0.1 161 0.1071 0.0167 0.1441 0.1 108 0.2977 0.1590 0.1295 0.2742 0.2435 0.1266 0.0435 0.0616 0.0506 0.0836 0.1789 0.0924
0.0968 0.1569 0.1313 0.0462 0.0591
32380 1970 299 1006 35655 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.8698 0.8202 -
Sebaraa tiap industri per kecamatan tahun 1997 : H = 1.033 1
0.0000 0.0297 0.0088 0.0094 0.0228 0.0180
0.0648 0.2880 0.1213 0.3586 0.1270 0.4222 0.1494 0.4168 0.0746 0.1941 0.1337 0.3432
0.2440 0.8454
0.1 198 0.10% 0.1509 0.1436 0.0315 0.0792
0.0063 0.0052 0.0166 0.0095 0.0017 0.0054
0.0000 0.0001 0.0025 0.0023 0.0004 0.0007
0.0014 0.0041 0.0045 0.0069 0.0017 0.0050
Lanjutan Lampiran 5.
5 6 7 8
IIir Timur I Uir Timur I1 Sako Sukarami JUMLAH
5547 5236 1172 2898
591 338 60 194
89
82 13 25
160 285 62 180
6387 0.1664 5941 0.1570 1307 0.0351 3297 0.0869
0.3000 0.2977 0.1716 0.2742 0.0305 0.0435 0.0985 0.0836
0.1530 0.2725 0.0593 0.1721
0.12% 0.1263 0.0511 0.0922
0.1569 0.1313 0.0462 0.0991
33345 1970 299 1046 36660 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.8703 0.8202
Sebaroln tiap industn per Icecamatan tahun f 998 : H = 1.0316
0.1 567 0.1541 0.0592 0.0901
0.1247 0.1539 0.0727 0.1315
0.6451 0.8356
0.5678 0.5655 0.2292 0.4130
0.1513 0.0161 0.0024 0.1428 0.0092 0.0022 0.0320 0.0016 0.0004 0.0791 0.0053 0.0007
0.0044 0.0078 0.0017 0.0049
Lampiran 6. Hasil analisis entropy sektor industri Kota Palembang tahun I999 dan tahun 2000
Sako
4548 4099 571 1 5352 1222
Sukarami
2972
3
Seberang Ulu 11
4
Ilir Barat I Uir Timur I Ilir Timur I1
5 6 7 8
JUMLAH
223 186 591 338 60 194
0 5
89 82 13 25
34306 1970 299
0 145 160 245 62 186
0.1326 0.1 195 0.1665 0.1560 1357 0.0356 3377 0.0866
4771 4435 6551 6017
=
1.0237
0.0000 0.1 163 0.1506 0.1102 0.1661 0.12% 0.2544 0.1259 0.0435 0.0644 0.0516 0.0836 0.1931 0.0920 0.0000 0.0167 0.2977 0.2742
0.1071 0.0968 0.1569 0.1313 0.0462 0.0991
0.0000 0.2234 0.1238 0.3605 0.1295 0.5727 0.1512 0.5626 0.0592 0.0767 0.2337 0.0901 0.1379 0.4192 0.0000 0.0297 0.1567 0.1541
963 37538 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.8708 0.8202 0.6451 0.7505
Sebaran tiap industri per kecamatan tahun 1999 :
H
0.1 132 0.0944 0.3000 0.1716 0.0305 0.0985
0.1212 0.0059 0.1092 0.0050 0.1521 0.0157 0.1426 0.0090 0.0326 0.0016 0.0792 0.0052
0.0000 0.0001 0.0024 0.0022
0.0000
0.0039 0.0043 0.0065
0.0003 0.0017
0.0007 0.0050
Lampiran 8. Hasil analisis pendugaan fungsi produksi CES (data Palembang) I-SET OUTPUT I-SAMPLE 1 5 1 I-READ(DATPAL.DAT)PROD INV MK HOK TK HK JK U N I T 88 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: DATPAL.DAT 7 VARIABLES AND 51 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS
I-GENR I-GENR I-GENR I-GENR I-GENR I -GENR I -GENR I-STAT
1
LOGPROD=LOG(PROD) LOGINV=LOG(INV} LOGMK=LOG(MK) LOGHOK=LOG(HOK) LOGTK=LOG ( TK) LOGHK-LOG (HK) LOGJK-LOG ( JK) PROD INV MK HOK TK HK JK / ANOVA
NAME MAX IMUM PROD
VARIANCE
ST. DEV
MEAN
MINIMUM
0.36363E+08
0.15500E+09 1Nv
0.40000E+08 MK 0.14 000E+09 HOK
3000.0 TK 100.00 HK 30.000 JK 300.00 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DF
SS
BETWEEN WITHIN TOTAL
0.67358E+17 0.87138E+17
0.15450E+18
I -OLS LOGPROD LOGINV
MS 0.11226E+17 0.24896E+15 0.43398E+15
6. 350. 356.
LOGMK LOGHOK LOGHK LOGJK / RSTAT ANOVA
REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR=
10 CURRENT PAR= 500 OLS ESTIMATION 51 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE = LOGPROD NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 51
...
R-SQUARE = 0.8129 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.7921 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.90679E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA 0.30113 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 4.0805 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 17.172 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -7.96314
-
MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE JUDGE ET AL. (1985,P.242) AKAIKE (1969) FINAL PREDICTION ERROR - FPE = 0.10135 (FPE IS ALSO KNOWN AS AMEMIYA PREDICTION CRITERION - PC) AKAIKE (1973) INFORMATION CRITERION - LOG AIC = - 2 . 2 9 0 3 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION LOG SC -2.0630 MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE RAMANATHAN (1992,P.167) CRAVEN-WAHBA (197 9 )
-
-
F 45.092
I
* PENDUGAAN FUNGSl PRODUKSI CES
I ~ N 1L /NCOEF=4 PCOV ZMATRIX=Z COEF=BETA PREDICT=YHAT . . . NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 51 t EQ LOGPROD = GAMMA- (ETA/RHO) *LOG((DELTA)*HOK** ( - R H O ) + (1DELTA)*MK** (-RHO) ) 1-COEF RHO 1 DELTA 0.5 GAMMA 1 ETA 1 3 VARIABLES IN 1 EQUATIONS WITH 4 COEFFICIENTS 51 OBSERVATIONS REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR29 CURRENT PAR100 MAXIMUM ITERATIONS, CONVERGENCE
500 =
0.000010
INITIAL STATISTICS : FUNCT . EVALUAT IONS
TIME = 69.980 S E C . ITER. NO. 0 LOG-LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION= -189.7964 COEFFICIENTS 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 GRAD1 ENT 5.090791 31 -33054 -3.527733 FINAL STATISTICS
1
0.5000000 -10.18127
:
-
TIME 69.980 SEC. ITER. NO. 2 LOG-LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION= 0.0000000 COEFFICIENTS 1.573171 4.5274 99 0.6028118
FUNCT. EVALUATIONS
31
-0.64 63068
GRADIENT
-0.1986157 -4.650783 -67.28650 ASYMPTOTIC COVARIANCE MATRIX GAMMA 0.99771 ETA -0.17335E-01 0.87113 RHO -0.62556E-01 -0.42431 0.27019 DELTA 0.69993E-02 0.51171E-01 0.15435 GAMMA
2.947219
0.97998
RHO
ETA
DELTA
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF SIGMA-SQUARED = 10330. GTRANSPOSE*INVERSE (HI* G STATISTIC - = 920.79 COEFFICIENT GAMMA
ETA RHO DELTA 1 -END
1.5732 4.5275 0.60281 -0.64631
ST. ERROR
0.99886 0.93334 0.51980 0.98994
T-RATIO 1.5750 4.8509 1.1597
-0.65287
L*MENDUGA ELASTISITAS SUBSTITUS1 I TEST 1/(1+RHO) VALUE = 0.623 90 STD. ERROR OF TEST VALUE 0.20234 ASYMPTOTIC NORMAL STATISTIC = 3.0835107 P-VALUE= 0.00205 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 9.5080383 WITH 1 D. F. P-VALUE= 0.00205 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.10517 1-MATRIX YBAR=LOGPROD-YHAT + ZCBETA T%T
1-OLS YBAR 2 /NOCONSTANT INDW PCOR PCOV REQUIRED MEMORY I S PAR= OLS ESTIMATION 51 OBSERVATIONS
12 CURRENT PAR=
500
DEPENDENT VARIABLE = YBAR
... NOTE..SAMPLE
RANGE SET TO: 1, 51 R-SQUARE = 0.9773 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.9759 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIiW'rE-S;GMA-*2 = 0.92199E-0; STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.30364 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 4.3334 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 57.419 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -9.49610 RAW MOMENT R-SQUARE = 1.0000 MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE JUDGE ET AL. (1985,P.242) AKAIKE (1969) FINAL PREDICTION ERROR - FPE = 0.99431E-01 (FPE IS ALSO KNOWN AS AMEMIYA PREDICTION C R I T E R I O N - PC) AKAIKE (1973) INFORMATION CRITERION - LOG AIC -2.3086 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION - LOG SC -2.1571 MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE RAMANATHAN (1992,P. 167 )
-
-
CRAVEN-WAHBA (1979) G E N E W I Z E D CROSS VALIDATION - GCV = HANNAN AND QUINN (1979) CRITERION = RICE (1984) CRITERION = SHXBATA (1981) CRITERION = SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION SC = AKAIKE (1974) INFORMATION CRITERION - AIC =
0.10005 0.10532 0.10078 0.98296E-01
-
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
SS 0.168333+06
REGRESSION 456435.540 ERROR VALUE TOTAL 0.000
4.3334
0.16834E+O6
-156,55
0.92199E-01
3300.7
51.
T-RATIO
47 DF
81.71
FROM ZERO
MS 42083.
DF 4. 47.
VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR AT MEANS Z
-
0.11566 0.99399E-01
PARTIAL STANDARD1 ZED P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT
-1.916
0.061-0.263
0.0000
-6.660
0.000-0.647
-0.1478
-0.1572
0.876-0.023
-0.0831
-2.044
0.047-0.286
-1.0806
-2.7265 Z
-0.4 0100
0.6021E-01
-0.1423 Z
-0.49905E-01 0.3175
-0.0799 Z
-14.990
7.332
3.9487
VARIANCE-COVARIANCE MATRIX OF COEFFICIENTS Z 6676.2 2 0.14600 0.36251E-02 Z 25.899 0.70862E-03 0.10080 2 599.00 0.18041~-01 2.3259
z
z
CORRELATION MATRIX OF COEFFICIENTS z 1.0000 Z 0.29677E-01 1.0000 Z 0.99838 0.37070E-01 Z 0.99980 0.42678E-01
z I -END I -STOP
z
z
1.0000 0.99912 Z
Lampiran 9. Hasil analisis pendugaan fungsi produksi CES (data Bogor) 1-SET OUTPUT 1-SAMPLE 1 60
IREAD(DATBOG.DAT) PROD MT MK JK HOK HK UNIT 88 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: DATBOG-DAT
...SAMPLE
RANGE IS NOW SET TO: I -GENR LOGPROD=LOG ( PROD) I -GENR LOGMT=LOG ( MT ) I -GENR LOGMK=LOG (MK) I-GENR LOGJK=LOG(JK) I-GENR LOGHOK=LOG(HOK) 1 -GENR LOGHK=LOG (HK) (-STAT PROD MT MK JK HOK H K / ANOVA
NhUE PROD HT HK JK
N 60 60
60 60
HOK
60
HK
60
MEAN
0.11857E+08 0.74767E+01 0.500343+07 8.3833 173.33 217.93
1
60
ST. DEV VARIANCE MINI MUM 0.220133+08 0 . 4 8 4 5 8 E + 1 5 20000. 5000.0 0.14320E+08 0.205053+15 0.11495E+OB 0.132133+15 8000.0 1.0000 13.165 173.33 106.38 340.90
MAXIMUM 0.12000E+09 0.60000E+08 0.60000E+08
14 .OOO 28.000
11316. O.l1621E+06
60.000
336.00
1440.0
ANALYSTS OF VARIANCE SS
BETWEEN WTTHTN TOTAL
0.73683E+16 0.48484E+17 0.55852E+17
DF
MS
5. 354. 359.
0.14737E+16 0.136963+15 0.15558E+15
1-OLS LOGPROD LOGMT LOGMK LOGJK LOGHOK LOGHK / RSTAT ANOVA REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 11 CURRENT PAR= 500 OLS ESTIMATION 60 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE = LOGPROD ... NOTE..SAMPLE W N G E SET TO: 1, 60
-
R-SQUARE = 0.97 8 9 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED 0.9769 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.20079 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.44810 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 10.843 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 13.578 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -33.8114
MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE JUDGE ET AL. (1985,P.242) AKAIKE (1969) FINAL PREDICTION ERROR - FPE = 0.22087 (FPE IS ALSO KNOWN AS AMEMIYA PREDICTION CRITERION - PC) AKAIKE (1973) INFORMATION CRITERION - LOG AIC = -1.5108 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION LOG SC = -1.3014 MODEL SELECTION TESTS SEE RAMANATHAN (1992,P.167) CRAVEN-WAHBA { 1 97 9 ) GENERALIZED CROSS VALIDATION - GCV = 0.22311 HANNAN AND QUINN (1979) CRITERION = 0.23957 RICE (1984) CRITERION = 0.22589 SHIBATA (1981) CRITERION = 0.21686 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION - SC = 0.27215 AKAIKE (1974) INFORMATION CRITERION - A I C = 0.22073
-
-
-
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE T3F
SS
REGRESSION ERROR
502.75
TOTAL
10.843
5. 54.
100.55 0.20079
513.59
59.
8.7049
ANALYSIS O F VARIANCE 11565. 10.843 11576.
ERROR TOTAL
VARIABLE NhME Lam
L r n r n J K mHOK
LOGHK CONSTANT
-
F 500.756 P-VALUE
0.000
FROPI ZERO
F
US 1927.5 0.20079 192.93
6. 54. 60.
ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO COEFFICIENT ERROR 5 4 DF 0.17003 0.6921t-01 2.457 0.66651 0.7 589E-01 B.783 4.7107 1.066 4.417 0.26932 0.1379 1.953 -4.5608 1.095 -4 -164 16.554 3.844 4.306
DURBIN-WATSON-1.6822
-
DF
SS
REGRESS I ON
FROH MEAN MS
9599.241 P-VALUE
0.000
PART1AL STANDARD1ZED ELASTICITY P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS 0.017 0.317 0.000 0 . 7 6 7
0.1816 0.6474 1.7868 0.0717
0.000 0.515 0.056 0 . 2 5 7 0.000-0.493 0.000 0.506
0.1590 0.6139 0.4779 0.0973 -1.5673 1.2192
-1.6741
0.0000
VONNEUMANNRATIO-1.7107
0.14775
RHO=
RESIDUAL SUM -0.483423-12 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.20079 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS20.153 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0 . 9 7 8 9 RUNSTEST: 19RUNS, 35POS, OZERO, 2 5 N E G NORMALSTATISTIC=2.9925
COEFFICIENT OF SKEWNESS = - 0 . 0 9 8 4 WITH STANDARD DEVIATION OF 0.3087 COEFFICIENT OF EXCESS KURTOSIS = -0.3027 WITH STANDARD DEVIATION OF 0.6085
GOODNESS OF FIT TEST FOR NORMALITY OF RESIDUALS
OBSERVED
0.0 EXPECTED 0.5 CHI-SQUARE= I -END
-
2.0 4 . 0 13.0 6.0 19.0 9.0 5.0 2.0 1.7 4 . 8 9.6 13.5 13.5 9.6 4 . 8 1.7 8 . 9 3 0 2 W I T H 2 DEGREESOFFREEDOM
10 GROUPS 0.0 0.5
L*PENDUGAAN FUNGSI PRODUKSI CES I-NL l/NCOEC=4 ZMATRIX=Z COEF=BETA PREDICT-YHAT RANGE SET TO: 1, 60 I-EQ LOGPROD GAMMA- (ETA/RHO)*LOG({DELTA)+HOK**(-RHO)+ (1DELTA) *MK** (-RHO) ) I-COEF RHO 1 DELTA 0.5 GAMMA 1 ETA 1 3 VARIABLES I N 1 EQUATIONS WITH 4 COEFFICIENTS 60 OBSERVATIONS
...NOTE..SAMPLE
-
REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 30 CURRENT PAR= 500 1 0 0 M A X I M U M ITERATIONS, CONVERGENCE = 0.000010
INITIAL STATISTICS :
TIME = 82.710 S E C . ITER. NO. LOG-LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION= -204.9290 COEFFICIENTS 1.000000 GRADIENT 7.725367
FINAL STATISTICS
0
FUNCT. EVALUATIONS
1.000000
1.000000
0.5000000
44.60326
-5.278985
-15.40390
1
:
TIME = 82.710 SEC. ITER. NO. 2 LOG-LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION= 0.0000000 COEFFICIENTS 1.366508 3.116071 0.7495515
FUNCT.
EVALUATIONS
-0.2307930
29
GRAD1 ENT -0.2740148
-165.7658
-6.205055
6.786629
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF SIGMA-SQUARED = 18378. GTRANSPOSE*INVERSE(H)*G STATISTIC 2205.6
-
COEFFICIENT GAMMA
ETA RHO DELTA I -END
1.3665 3.1161 0.74955 -0.2307 9
ST. ERROR 0.99967
0.98104 0.33064 0.99455
T-RATIO
1.3670 3.1763 2.2669 -0.23206
LkMENDUGA ELASTISITAS SUBSTITUSI 1 TEST l/(l+RHO) = 0.57158 STD. ERROR OF TEST VALUE 0.10802 ASYMPTOTIC NORMAL STATISTIC 5.2913342 P-VALUE= 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC 27.998218 Wf TH 1 D. F. P-VALUE0.00000 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.03572 1-MATRIX YBAR-LOGPROD-YHAT + Z*BETA
TEST VALUE
--
I-OLS YBAR Z/NOCONSTANT INDW PCOR PCOV REQUIRED MEMORY I S PAR= 1 3 CURRENT PAR- 500 OLS ESTIMATION 60 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE = YBAR ...MOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 60 ...WARNING. ..VARIABLE Z IS A CONSTANT
-
R-SQUARE 0.9991 R-SQUAIIEADJUSTED= 0.9991 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.35393 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.59492 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 19.820 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE -87.529 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = - 5 1 . 9 0 7 1 RAWMOMENT R-SQUARE = 1.0000
-
- SEE JUDGE ET A L . (1985,P.242) AKAIKE (1969) FINAL PREDICTION ERROR - FPE = 0.37753 (FPE IS ALSO KNOWN AS AMEMIYA PREDICTION CRITERION - P C ) AKATKE (1973) INFORMATION CRITERION - LOG A I C = -0.97431 SCHWARZ (1978) C R I T E R I O N - LOG SC = -0.83469 MODEL SELECTION TESTS S E E RAMANATHAN (1992,P. 167) CRAVEN-WAHBA (1979) GENERALIZED CROSS VALIDATION - GCV = 0.37921 HANNAH AND QUIMN (1979) CRITERION = 0.39864 RICE (1984) CRITERION = 0.38116 SHIBATA (1981) CRITERION = 0.37438 SCHWARZ (1978) C R I T E R I O N - SC = 0.43401 AKAIKE (1974) INFORMATION CRITERION - A I C = 0.37745 MODEL SELECTION TESTS
-
REGRESS I ON ERROR
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE - FROM ZERO SS DF MS 0.48203E+06 4. 0.120513+06 19.820 56. 0.35393
TOTAL
0.4BZ05E+06
60.
8034.1
F 340480 - 2 3 4 P-VALUE
0.000
VARIABLE NAUE Z
Z Z
2
ESTIMATED STANDARD COEFFICIENT ERROR
T-RATIO 5 6 DF 0.81174E+06 0 . 5 4 7 5 3 + 0 6 1.483 -6.8401 0.4274E-01 -160.1 11665. 7769. 1.501 0 . 6 4 0 3 5 E t 0 6 0.4316E+06 1.484
PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT A T MEANS 0.144 0.194 0.000-0.999 0 . 1 3 9 0.197 0 . 1 4 4 0.194
0 . 0 0 0 0 -9273.9004 -1.0069 1.0271 0 . 1 8 2 9 -435.0000 0.1773 9709.6733
VARIANCE-COVARIANCE MATRIX OF COEFFICIENTS Z Z Z
2
0.29971E+12 -15074.
0.42495E+10 0.23629E412
z
0.18264E-02 -219.63
0.60354E+08
-11899.
0.33505E+10
z
z
CORRELATION MATRIX OF COEFFICIENTS Z 1.0000 Z -0.64431 1.0000 Z
Z
0.99915
1.0000 Z
I -END I -STOP
-0.66152
1.0000
-0.64509
0.99922
Z
z
0.186296+12
z
Lampiran 11. Data Primer lndustri Kecil Kabupaten Bogor
