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DAFTAR ISI HALAMAN JUDUL................................................................................................ i LEMBAR PENGESAHAN PEMBIMBING ......................................................... ii LEMBAR PENGESAHAN PENGUJI ................................................................. iii LEMBAR PERNYATAAN ................................................................................... iv HALAMAN PERSEMBAHAN ............................................................................. v MOTTO ................................................................................................................. vi KATA PENGANTAR .......................................................................................... vii DAFTAR ISI.......................................................................................................... ix DAFTAR GAMBAR ............................................................................................. xi DAFTAR TABEL................................................................................................. xii DAFTAR LAMPIRAN........................................................................................ xiii ABSTRAKSI ...................................................................................................... xiv BAB I PENDAHULUAN 1.1 Latar Belakang Masalah...................................................................... 1 1.2 Rumusan Masalah ............................................................................... 5 1.3 Batasan Masalah ................................................................................. 5 1.4 Tujuan Penelitian ................................................................................ 5 1.5 Manfaat Penelitian .............................................................................. 6 1.6 Sistematika Penulisan ......................................................................... 6 BAB II KAJIAN LITERATUR 2.1 Sistem Dinamis .................................................................................. 9 2.1.1 Karakteristik Model ............................................................... 10 2.1.2 Prinsip-prinsip Pemodelan Sistem ......................................... 11 2.1.3 Alasan Menggunakan Model Sistem Dinamis....................... 11 2.1.4 Konsep Sistem Dalam Metode Sistem Dinamis .................... 12 2.1.5 Konsep Pemodalan Dalam Metode Sistem Dinamis ............. 15 2.1.6 Batasan Tertutup .................................................................... 15 2.1.7 Prinsip-prinsip Pengembangan Metode Sistem Dinamis....... 16 2 1.8 Validasi Metode Sistem Dinamis........................................... 18 2 1.8.1 Pemodelan dan Proses Validasi ................................. 18 2 1.8.2 Validitas Sebagai Kesesuaian dan Konsistensi .......... 19 2 1.8.3 Pengujian Kesesuaian dan Efektifitas Model............. 19 2.1.9 Simulasi.................................................................................. 25 2 1.9.1 Bangun Model Sistem Dinamis dan Notasi ............... 28 2 1.9.2 Analisa Grafis............................................................. 33 2 1.9.3 Kelebihan dan Kekurangan Sistem Dinamis ............. 34 BAB III METODE PENELITIAN 3.1 Identifikasi Masalah ......................................................................... 36 3.2 Ruang Lingkup Penelitian................................................................ 36 3.3 Data yang Diperlukan ...................................................................... 36
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3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7
3.8 3.9
Metode Pengumpulan Data ........................................................... ...37 Metode Pengolahan dan Analisis Data ............................................ 37 Perancangan Model Konseptual....................................................... 38 Pengujian Model Simulasi ............................................................... 39 3.7.1 Uji Verifikasi Struktur............................................................. 39 3.7.2 Uji Statistik ............................................................................. 40 3.7.2.1 Uji Rataan................................................................... 40 3.7.2.2 Uji Kondisi Ekstrim ................................................... 41 Tahapan Pemodelan Sistem Dinamis............................................... 42 Diagram Alir Penelitian ................................................................... 44
BAB IV PENGUMPULAN DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA 4.1 Pengumpulan Data ........................................................................... 45 4.1.1 Data Pengajuan Outstanding ................................................ 45 4.1.2 Data Aset Nasabah ............................................................... 45 4.1.3 Data Pendapatan Nasabah .................................................... 46 4.1.4 Data Jumlah Angsuran ......................................................... 46 4.1.5 Data Jumlah Nisbah ............................................................. 47 4.2 Pengolahan Data............................................................................... 47 4.2.1 Asumsi-asumsi ..................................................................... 47 4.2.2 Diagram Sebab Akibat (Causal Loop Diagram) ................. 48 4.2.3 Simulasi dengan Software (Flow Diagram)......................... 51 4.2.3.1 Simulasi Skenario 1 ................................................... 52 4.2.3.2 Simulasi Skenario 2 ................................................... 56 4.2.4 Notasi Matematis ................................................................. 57 4.2.5 Hasil Simulasi ...................................................................... 57 4.2.5.1 Hasil Simulasi Skenario 1 .......................................... 58 4.2.5.2 Hasil Simulasi Skenario 2 .......................................... 59 4.2.6 Pengujian Model Simulasi ................................................... 61 4.2.6.1 Uji Verifikasi Struktur................................................ 62 4.2.6.2 Uji Statistik ................................................................ 62 BAB V PEMBAHASAN 5.1 Analisa Peningkatan Outstanding dan Porto Folio Outstanding...... 68 5.2 Analisa Pengujian Model Simulasi .................................................. 70 5.2.1 Analisa Uji Statistik ............................................................. 71 5.2.2 Analisa Uji Kondisi Ekstrim ................................................ 71 BAB VI KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN 6.1 Kesimpulan ....................................................................................... 73 6.2 Saran.................................................................................................. 74 DAFTAR PUSTAKA LAMPIRAN
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DAFTAR GAMBAR Gambar 2.1 Struktur hubungan umpan balik sistem tertutup ........................... 13 Gambar 2.2 Contoh umpan balik positif........................................................... 14 Gambar 2.3 Jumlah kematian terhadap populasi penduduk sebagai umpan balik negatif................................................................................... 15 Gambar 2.4 Simbol Level ................................................................................. 30 Gambar 2.5 Simbol Rate................................................................................... 30 Gambar 2.6 Simbol Auxiliary ........................................................................... 31 Gambar 2.7 Simbol Constanta.......................................................................... 31 Gambar 2.8 Simbol Link dan Delayed Link...................................................... 31 Gambar 2.9 (a) constanta, (b) dan, (c) fungsi ramp, (d) fungsi sinwave.......... 33 Gambar 3.1 Diagram Alir Penelitian ................................................................ 44 Gambar 4.1 Causal Loop Diagram Porto Folio Outstanding ........................... 49 Gambar 4.2 Flow Diagram Porto Folio Outstanding Skenario 1 ..................... 52 Gambar 4.3 Flow Diagram Porto Folio Outstanding Skenario 2 ..................... 56 Gambar 4.4 Grafik Outstanding Simulasi Skenario 1....................................... 58 Gambar 4.5 Grafik Portofolio Outstanding Simulasi Skenario 1 ..................... 59 Gambar 4.6 Grafik Outstanding Simulasi Skenario 2....................................... 60 Gambar 4.7 Grafik Portofolio Outstanding Simulasi Skenario 2 ..................... 60 Gambar 4.8 Grafik Tingkat Pertumbuhan Nasabah Kondisi Ekstrim 1 ........... 66 Gambar 4.9 Grafik Porto Folio Outstanding Kondisi Ekstrim 1 ...................... 66 Gambar 4.10 Grafik Kondisi Ekstrim 2 .............................................................. 67 Gambar 5.1 Grafik Outstanding....................................................................... 68 Gambar 5.2 Grafik Porto Folio Outstanding..................................................... 69 Gambar 5.3 Grafik Tingkat Pertumbuhan Nasabah Kondisi Ekstrim 1 ........... 71 Gambar 5.4 Grafik Porto Folio Outstanding Kondisi Ekstrim 1 ...................... 71 Gambar 5.5 Grafik Kondisi Ekstrim 2 .............................................................. 72
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DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 2.1 Contoh Rate dan Level......................................................................32 Tabel 4.9 Hasil Simulasi Outstanding dan Portofolio Outstanding Skenario 1 .........................................................................................58 Tabel 4.10 Hasil Simulasi Outstanding dan Portofolio Outstanding Skenario 2 .........................................................................................59 Tabel. 4.11 Perbandingan Data Aktual Outstanding dengan Data Hasil Simulasi Outstanding .....................................................61 Tabel 4.12 Perbandingan Data Aktual Porto Folio Outstanding dengan Data Hasil Simulasi Porto Folio Outstanding ......................62 Tabel. 5.1 Tabel Perbandingan Data Aktual Outstanding dengan Data Hasil Simulasi Outstanding ..............................................................70 Tabel 5.2 Tabel Perbandingan Data Aktual Porto Folio Outstanding dengan Data Hasil Simulasi Porto Folio Outstanding...................................70
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DAFTAR LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1 Data Pengajuan Outstanding (Tabel 4.1) Lampiran 2
Data Aset Nasabah (Tabel 4.2)
Lampiran 3
Data Pendapatan Nasabah (Tabel 4.3)
Lampiran 4
Data Jumlah Angsuran (Tabel 4.4)
Lampiran 5 Data Jumlah Nisbah (Tabel 4.5) Lampiran 6
Data–data Olahan yang di input pada model (Tabel 4.6)
Lampiran 7
Daftar Notasi Matematis (Tabel 4.7)
Lampiran 8 Daftar Rumus dalam model (Tabel 4.8) Lampiran 9 Uji Rataan (untuk Pembiayaan Outstanding) Lampiran 10 Uji Rataan (untuk Porto Folio Outstanding)
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