DAFTAR ISI HALAMAN JUDUL .............................................................................................. i HALAMAN PENGESAHAN ............................................................................... ii HALAMAN PERNYATAAN .............................................................................. iii NASKAH SOAL TUGAS AKHIR ..................................................................... iv HALAMAN PERSEMBAHAN ............................................................................v INTISARI ............................................................................................................. vi KATA PENGANTAR ......................................................................................... vii UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH ............................................................................. viii DAFTAR ISI ...........................................................................................................x DAFTAR GAMBAR .......................................................................................... xiii DAFTAR TABEL .............................................................................................. xiv DAFTAR LAMPIRAN ........................................................................................xv DAFTAR NOTASI DAN SINGKATAN .......................................................... xvi
BAB I PENDAHULUAN .......................................................................................1 1.1 Latar Belakang Masalah .........................................................................1 1.2 Rumusan Masalah ..................................................................................6 1.3 Batasan Masalah.....................................................................................6 1.4 Tujuan Penelitian ...................................................................................7 1.5 Manfaat Penelitian .................................................................................7
BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA............................................................................9
BAB III LANDASAN TEORI .............................................................................13 3.1 Pengertian Peramalan ...........................................................................13 3.2 Jenis-jenis Peramalan ...........................................................................15 3.3 Identifikasi Pola Data ...........................................................................16 3.4 Uji Normalitas Kolmogorov-Smirnov ..................................................16 x
3.5 Metode Peramalan ................................................................................18 3.6 Metode Peramalan Time Series ............................................................19 3.6.1 Metode Naive ........................................................................19 3.6.2 Metode Moving Averages .....................................................19 3.6.3 Metode Exponential Smoothing ............................................20 3.6.3.1 Single Exponential Smoothing ...............................21 3.6.3.2 Holt’s Method ........................................................22 3.6.3.3 Metode Winter ........................................................23 3.6.4 Metode Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) ..............................................25 3.6.4.1 Strategi Membangun Model ...................................26 3.7 Pengukuran Kesalahan Peramalan .......................................................29 BAB IV METODE PENELITIAN .....................................................................32 4.1 Objek Penelitian ...................................................................................32 4.2 Alat Penelitian ......................................................................................32 4.3 Metode Pengumpulan Data ..................................................................33 4.4 Tahapan Penelitian ...............................................................................33 BAB V HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN ...............................................................37 5.1 Gambaran Produk.................................................................................37 5.2 Sistem Persediaan Produk Darah .........................................................41 5.3 Sistem Peramalan Produk Darah ..........................................................43 5.4 Karakteristik Permintaan Darah ...........................................................44 5.5 Karakteristik Penerimaan Darah ..........................................................46 5.6 Uji Normalitas Kolmogorov-Smirnov ..................................................48 5.7 Identifikasi Pola Data ...........................................................................49 5.8 Pemilihan Metode Peramalan ..............................................................49 xi
5.9 Peramalan Permintaan Produk Darah ..................................................52 5.10 Penentuan Metode Peramalan ............................................................56 5.11 Hasil Peramalan Permintaan Produk Darah .......................................58 5.11 Kesalahan Hasil Peramalan Permintaan Produk Darah .....................64 BAB VI PENUTUP ..............................................................................................67 6.1 Kesimpulan ..........................................................................................67 6.2 Saran .....................................................................................................67 DAFTAR PUSTAKA ...........................................................................................69 LAMPIRAN ..........................................................................................................73
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DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 1.1 Sistem Rantai Pasok PMI UDD Kota Yogyakarta ...............................4 Gambar 3.1 Jarak Vertikal D Pada Grafik Uji Kolmogorov-Smirnov ...................17 Gambar 3.2 Diagram Alir Strategi Pembangunan Model Box-Jenkins .................27 Gambar 4.1 Tahapan Penelitian .............................................................................35 Gambar 4.2 Tahapan Pengolahan Data ..................................................................36 Gambar 5.1 Prosedur Pengambilan Darah Dari Pendonor.....................................39 Gambar 5.2 Alur Sistem Persediaan Darah............................................................43 Gambar 5.3 Grafik Permintaan Produk Darah .......................................................45 Gambar 5.4 Grafik Penerimaan Produk Darah ......................................................47 Gambar 5.5 Plot Data Hasil Peramalan Produk Darah Lengkap ...........................58 Gambar 5.6 Plot Data Hasil Peramalan Produk Sel Darah Merah Pekat ...............59 Gambar 5.7 Plot Data Hasil Peramalan Produk Sel Darah Merah Cuci ................60 Gambar 5.8 Plot Data Hasil Peramalan Produk Plasma Segar Beku .....................61 Gambar 5.9 Plot Data Hasil Peramalan Produk Plasma Cair.................................62 Gambar 5.10 Plot Data Hasil Peramalan Produk Trombosit .................................63
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DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 2.1 Penelitian Relevan Mengenai Persediaan Darah ...................................12 Tabel 3.1 Kriteria Penentuan Orde ARIMA ..........................................................26 Tabel 5.1 Nilai Signifikan Data Permintaan Produk Darah ...................................48 Tabel 5.2 Pola Data Untuk Setiap Produk Darah ...................................................50 Tabel 5.3 Klasifikasi Metode Peramalan ...............................................................51 Tabel 5.4 Orde ARIMA Untuk Setiap Produk Darah ............................................53 Tabel 5.5 Hasil Uji Residual Untuk Semua Model ARIMA .................................55 Tabel 5.6 Hasil Perbandingan MAPE Untuk Setiap Metode .................................57 Tabel 5.7 Hasil Peramalan Produk Darah ..............................................................64 Tabel 5.8 Hasil Kesalahan Peramalan Produk Darah ............................................65
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DAFTAR LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Data permintaan produk darah ..........................................................71 Lampiran 2. Uji kenormalan Kolmogorov-Smirnov untuk setiap produk darah ....78 Lampiran 3. Analisis autokorelasi untuk setiap produk darah ...............................82 Lampiran 4. Autocorrelation Function (ACF) dan Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) untuk setiap produk darah .........................................................88 Lampiran 5. Autocorrelation Function (ACF) dari difference dan residual dalam pembangunan model Box-Jenkins ARIMA ...........................................................94 Lampiran 6. Uji kenormalan Kolmogorov-Smirnov untuk setiap residual model ARIMA ...............................................................................................................101
xv
DAFTAR NOTASI DAN SINGKATAN
α
= Konstanta penghalus atau koefisien smoothing
μ
= Konstanta rata-rata pada proses
Φ
= Koefisien estimasi
γ
= Konstanta smoothing untuk estimasi trend
ACF
= Autocorrelation Function
AR
= Auto Regressive
ARIMA
= Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average
BDRS
= Bank Darah Rumah Sakit
MA
= Moving Average
MAPE
= Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MPE
= Mean Percentage Error
MSE
= Mean Square Error
PACF
= Partial Autocorrelation Function
PMI
= Palang Merah Indonesia
rk
= Koefisien
UDD
= Unit Donor Darah
UTDRS
= Unit Transfusi Darah Rumah Sakit
autokorelasi untuk lag k
= Nilai rata-rata data
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