D A N A R E K S A S P E C I A L R E P O R T. Sumber Pendanaan Perusahaan di Indonesia. The Financing Sources of Companies in Indonesia

SPECIAL REPORT

D A N A R E K S A

June 2014

Sumber Pendanaan Perusahaan di Indonesia

The Financing Sources of Companies in Indonesia

ƒ Survei kami terhadap perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia ƒ Our survey of companies operating in Indonesia in the period periode 2008-2014 menunjukkan hampir 60 persen perusahaan mengandalkan sumber pendanaan internal untuk pembiayaan barang modal (capital expenditures). Dari 40 persen yang menggunakan sumber pendanaan eksternal, 35% menggunakan pinjaman bank, sementara yang menggunakan pasar modal sangat kecil sebesar 1 persen saja dan sisanya dari sumber lain-lain. Pola pendanaan seperti ini terlihat di semua kategori ukuran aset (kecil, sedang dan besar) dan semua sektor (pertanian, manufaktur, jasa-jasa, keuangan, perdagangan, hotel dan restoran).

2008-2014 shows that almost 60 percent of them relied on internal funds to finance their capital expenditures. Of the 40 percent that relied on external financing, almost 35 percent made use of bank loans, while only a small number of firms obtained financing through the capital market (just one percent). The remainder used other financing sources. This breakdown of financing sources was similar for firms of all asset sizes (small, medium and large) and among the different business sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, services, trade, hotels and restaurants).

ƒ Penggunaan sumber dana sendiri paling banyak dilakukan ƒ Firms in the small assets category rely particularly on internal perusahaan dengan kategori aset kecil, diikuti perusahaan beraset sedang, dan paling sedikit dilakukan oleh perusahaan beraset besar. Untuk sumber pendanaan eksternal, pinjaman bank paling banyak dilakukan perusahaan beraset sedang, sedangkan pasar modal paling banyak dimanfaatkan oleh perusahaan beraset besar. Menurut sektor, perusahaan di sektor jasa-jasa paling banyak menggunakan dana sendiri, sektor pertanian dan manufaktur paling banyak menggunakan pinjaman bank, sedangkan sektor keuangan paling banyak memanfaatkan pasar modal.

funds, with firms in the medium assets category less reliant and firms in the large assets category even less reliant. For external financing, firms in the medium assets category are most reliant on bank borrowing. As for funding from the capital markets, this is mostly a source of funding used by firms in the large assets category. By sector, companies in the services sector use internal financing the most, while companies in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors use bank borrowing more than the other companies. Companies in the financial sector, meanwhile, are more likely to use the capital markets than other firms.

ƒ Perusahaan menghadapi kendala menggunakan dana ƒ Companies face several constraints when making use of external eksternal. Alasan terbanyak dalam meminjam bank adalah tingginya biaya pinjaman, yang terutama dihadapi perusahaan kecil, dan kesulitan memenuhi persyaratan administrasi bank, yang terutama dihadapi perusahaan kecil dan sedang. Kendala berikutnya adalah risiko bisnis yang dinilai tinggi oleh perbankan, dimana paling banyak dinyatakan oleh perusahaan besar. Menurut sektor, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran paling banyak menyatakan biaya tinggi sebagai kendala meminjam bank. Sektor manufaktur paling banyak mengungkapkan kesulitan memenuhi persyaratan administrasi, sedangkan penilaian risiko bisnis yang tinggi oleh bank paling banyak menjadi kendala sektor pertanian.

PRAMAYANTI MEITISARI Analyst (62-21) 3509777 ext 3607 [email protected]

DAMHURI NASUTION Head of Economic Research (62-21) 3509777 ext 3602 [email protected]

www.danareksa-research.com

financing. Firstly, companies will have to shoulder a high cost of borrowing, a particular obstacle for small sized companies. In addition to this, companies have to meet the administrative requirements set by banks, a constraint which mostly affects small and medium sized companies. The next constraint is being assessed as having high business risk by banks. This issue was mostly faced by large companies. By sector, companies in the trade, hotels and restaurants sector were the most likely to cite high borrowing costs as a constraint for borrowing from banks. The manufacturing sector, meanwhile, was particularly affected by the requirement to meet the administrative requirements of banks. As for being assessed as having high business risk by banks, this is particularly a constraint for firms in the agriculture sector.

ƒ Pasar modal masih rendah digunakan sebagai sumber

ƒ Many firms are reluctant to use the capital markets as a source

pendanaan saat ini maupun untuk perencanaan satu tahun kedepannya. Alasan utama adalah perusahaan merasa modal sendiri masih mencukupi dan belum adanya rencana ekspansi. Konsisten dengan rendahnya penggunaan pasar modal, perkembangan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) menjadi indikator ekonomi yang paling tidak diketahui arah pergerakannya oleh perusahaan. Secara berturut-turut yang paling banyak dimonitor pergerakannya oleh perusahaan adalah nilai tukar Rupiah, suku bunga pinjaman, inflasi dan IHSG. Nilai tukar Rupiah dan inflasi terkait dengan biaya operasional, sedangkan suku bunga pinjaman terkait dengan biaya pendanaan perusahaan melalui perbankan. Prediksi perusahaan mengenai arah pergerakan naik turunnya indikator-indikator tersebut, cukup akurat, dimana indikator yang dapat diperkirakan paling akurat arah pergerakannya adalah tingkat inflasi, nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap USD, suku bunga pinjaman, dan terakhir adalah IHSG.

of financing either now or for the year ahead. The main reasons are that companies believe that internal funds are still enough and because they have no expansion plans. Consistent with the reluctance of firms to use the capital market, the Jakarta Stock Index (JSI) is the economic indicator which companies are least able to predict over the next six months. By comparison, companies are much more confident in giving their predictions for the Rupiah (IDR) followed, in turn, by the lending rate and inflation. The IDR/USD exchange rate is closely watched by companies given that their operations can be affected by exchange rate movements and lending rates are watched because they lead to changes in the cost of bank borrowings. Predictions of these indicators are quite accurate, whith the inflation rate, Rupiah exchange rate and lending rate the most accurate, and JCI the least.

Sumber Pendanaan yang Paling Banyak Digunakan ƒ Untuk membiayai belanja barang modal (capital expenditure), perusahaan dapat memilih menggunakan sumber internal yang berasal dari dana sendiri dan/atau sumber eksternal yang berasal dari pinjaman bank, pasar modal, atau sumber lainnya. Dari pilihan-pilihan sumber dana internal dan eksternal tersebut, sumber dana yang paling banyak diandalkan perusahaan untuk membiayai pembelian barang modal adalah sumber dana internal. Hanya sedikit perusahaan yang menggunakan sumber pendanaan eksternal, dimana penggunaan pinjaman bank jauh lebih banyak digunakan dibanding sumber dana dari pasar modal. Rata-rata yang menggunakan sumber pendanaan internal dari tahun 20082014 hampir mencapai 60 persen, sementara pinjaman perbankan hanya separuhnya, yaitu dibawah 35 persen, pasar modal sangat jauh dibawah, tidak sampai satu persen, dan sumber dana selain dari bank dan pasar modal berkisar 5 persen (Grafik 1).

The Most Used Financing Sources ƒ To finance capital expenditures, companies can choose to use either internal financing and/or external financing such as bank borrowings, the capital market or other sources. From these financing alternatives, most companies rely on internal financing to fund their capital expenditures. Only a small number of companies use external financing, for which bank borrowings are far more popular than obtaining funds from the capital market. On average, 60 percent of companies used internal financing from 2008-2014, 35 percent used bank borrowings, and less than one percent resorted to the capital market to obtain funding with other sources of funds accounting for around 5 percent (Graph 1).

GRAPH 1. FINANCING SOURCES NOW AND FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Internal

Bank Currently

Cap Mkt

Other Sources

For the Next 6 Months

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

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ƒ Perkembangan penggunaan masing-masing sumber dana

ƒ The use of financing sources (internal funds, bank borrowings,

2008-2014 menunjukkan tren yang cenderung stabil (Grafik 2). Hanya pada pertengahan 2010 terlihat penurunan tajam pada sumber dana sendiri, dan peningkatan pada pinjaman bank, dimana pada periode tersebut suku bunga acuan (BI rate) dan suku bunga pinjaman relatif sudah cukup rendah dibandingkan 2008-2009.

the capital market and other sources) has been steady over time (Graph 2). Only in the middle of 2010 was there a sharp decline in the use of internal sources and increase in bank borrowing, reflecting the relatively low BI rate and lending rate compared to their levels in 2008-2009.

GRAPH 2. TREND OF FINANCING SOURCES USED NOW AND FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS A. Financing Sources Used Now

B. Financing Sources for the Next 6 Months

80%

80%

70%

70%

60%

60%

50%

50%

40%

40%

30%

30%

20%

20%

10%

10% 0%

0% J M M J S N J M M J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J M M J S N J M 2008 Bank

2009

2010 Cap Mkt

2011

2012

Other Sources

2013

2014

Internal

J M M J S N J M M J S N J MM J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M 2008

2009 Bank

2010 Cap Mkt

2011 Other Sources

2012

2013

2014

Internal

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

Sumber Pendanaan Menurut Besarnya Aset Perusahaan

Financing Sources Based on Company Assets Size

ƒ Sumber pendanaan dipengaruhi oleh besar kecilnya aset

ƒ The source of financing is affected by the size of the company’s

perusahaan, yang dikelompokkan menjadi aset kecil, sedang dan besar. Kategori kecil adalah perusahaan yang beraset kurang dari Rp 50 milyar, kategori sedang beraset Rp 50-200 milyar, dan besar beraset lebih dari Rp 200 milyar. Sumber dana internal paling banyak digunakan oleh seluruh perusahaan, namun perusahaan kecil menggunakan dana internal yang paling banyak dalam mendanai pembelian barang modal yang dibutuhkan saat ini, selanjutnya perusahaan sedang, sedangkan perusahaan besar yang paling sedikit menggunakan dana sendiri (Grafik 3). Pinjaman bank paling banyak digunakan oleh perusahaan sedang, sedangkan sumber dana dari pasar modal dan sumber dana lainnya paling banyak digunakan perusahaan besar. Dalam merencanakan pendanaan barang modal 6 bulan ke depan juga berlaku pola yang sama.

assets, categorized either as small, medium or large. Companies fall into the small assets size category if they have assets less than IDR 50 billion, while medium assets size is between IDR 50-200 billion and large assets size is greater than IDR 200 billion. All firms rely heavily on internal financing: small sized firms the most, then medium sized firms and least of all the large sized firms (Graph 3). Medium sized firms are more likely than the others to rely on bank borrowings with large sized firms depending more upon the capital market and other sources. Looking ahead, the financing plans of companies over the next 6 months show a similar breakdown in the type of financing.

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GRAPH 3. FINANCING SOURCES BASED ON ASSET SIZE 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

Internal

Bank Currently

Cap Mkt

Large

Medium

Small

Large

Medium

Small

Large

Medium

Small

Large

Small

0%

Medium

10%

Other Sources

For the Next 6 Months

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

ƒ Tingkat kesulitan mendapatkan pendanaan untuk membiayai

ƒ The difficulty of obtaining funds to finance working capital

modal kerja yang dibutuhkan saat ini dan 6 bulan ke depan juga dipengaruhi oleh besar kecilnya aset perusahaan, dimana semakin besar aset perusahaan semakin mudah mendapatkan dana untuk modal kerja saat ini dan 6 bulan ke depan (Grafik 4).

now and over the next 6 months is also affected by the size of the company’s assets. In this regard, large sized firms find it easier to obtain funding to finance working capital now and over the next 6 months (Graph 4).

GRAPH 4. DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY IN OBTAINING FUNDS TO FINANCE CURRENT WORKING CAPITAL AND OVER THE NEXT 6 MONTHS A. Degree of Difficulty in Obtaining Funds to Finance

B. Degree of Difficulty in Obtaining Funds to Finance Working Capital Over the Next 6 Months

Current Working Capital

Small Assets

Medium Assets

Large Assets

Small Assets

Medium Assets

Difficult

Moderate

Easy

Difficult

Moderate

Easy

Difficult

Moderate

55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Easy

Difficult

Moderate

Easy

Difficult

Moderate

Easy

Difficult

Moderate

Easy

55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Large Assets

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

Sumber Pendanaan Menurut Sektor Perusahaan

Financing Sources Based on Sector

ƒ Jenis sektor mempengaruhi pendanaan perusahaan untuk

ƒ The type of financing a company uses to fund its capital

membiayai pembelanjaan barang modal saat ini dan 6 bulan ke depan. Sektor jasa-jasa paling banyak mengandalkan dana sendiri, sedangkan sektor pertanian dan sektor manufaktur paling sedikit mengandalkan dana sendiri. Pinjaman bank paling banyak digunakan oleh sektor manufaktur dan sektor pertanian, sedangkan sektor keuangan paling sedikit menggunakan pinjaman bank. Pasar modal paling banyak dimanfaatkan oleh sektor keuangan. Sumber pendanaan lainnya paling banyak digunakan oleh sektor keuangan, sedangkan paling sedikit adalah sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran dan sektor jasa-jasa (Grafik 5).

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expenditure now and over the next 6 months is affected by the sector in which the company operates. The services sector, for example, is most likely to utilize internal funds, whilst the agriculture and manufacturing sectors are the least likely to rely on internal funds. Bank borrowing is most likely to be utilized by the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, while the financial sector is least likely to use bank borrowings. The capital market is most likely to be used by the financial sector. Other financing sources are most likely to be used by the financial sector, whereas the trade, hotels and restaurants sector and services sector are least likely to use other financing sources (Graph 5). 4

GRAPH 5. FINANCING SOURCES BASED ON SECTOR 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

Internal

Bank

Cap Mkt

Currently

Services

Financial

Trade, Htl, Resto

Manufacturing

Agriculture

Services

Financial

Trade, Htl, Resto

Manufacturing

Services

Agriculture

Financial

Trade, Htl, Resto

Manufacturing

Agriculture

Services

Financial

Trade, Htl, Resto

Manufacturing

Agriculture

0%

Other Sources

For the Next 6 Months

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

Pendanaan Eksternal Melalui Pinjaman Bank

External Funding from Bank Loans

ƒ Pendanaan eksternal dari pinjaman bank belum banyak

ƒ There are several reasons why firms are reluctant to use

diandalkan oleh perusahaan untuk mendanai barang modal dengan alasan-alasan meliputi biaya pinjaman yang terdiri dari bunga, provisi, asuransi dan lainnya dianggap terlalu tinggi, kesulitan untuk memenuhi persyaratan administrasi bank, dan risiko bisnis masih dianggap tinggi (Grafik 6). Alasan tingginya risiko bisnis merupakan pertimbangan yang diberikan oleh perbankan sehingga tidak memberikan pinjaman kepada perusahaan. Dari ketiga alasan utama ini, biaya tinggi merupakan kendala yang paling banyak dirasakan perusahaan, selanjutnya kesulitan memenuhi persyaratan administrasi dan risiko bisnis yang dinilai tinggi oleh bank.

external funding from bank loans to finance their capital expenditures. These include high borrowing costs, i.e. interest costs, provisioning, insurance and others, difficulties in meeting bank administrative requirements and high business risk (Graph 6). Banks cite high business risk as a reason why they refuse to extend loans. High costs are the number one reason why firms are reluctant to use bank loans, followed, in second place by difficulties in meeting bank administrative requirements and, lastly, the high business risk cited by banks.

GRAPH 6. REASONS FOR NOT TAKING ON BANK LOANS 30%

25% 20%

15%

10% 5%

0% High Costs

Difficult Admin

High Risk

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

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ƒ Perusahaan dalam kategori aset kecil lebih banyak

ƒ Small sized firms are more likely than either medium sized

memberikan alasan tingginya biaya pinjaman sebagai kendala untuk meminjam dari bank dibanding perusahaan beraset sedang maupun besar (Grafik 7). Alasan sulitnya memenuhi persyaratan administrasi lebih banyak diberikan oleh perusahaan dengan kategori kecil dan sedang dibandingkan dengan perusahaan besar. Perusahaan dengan aset besar paling banyak dalam memberikan alasan risiko dinilai besar oleh perbankan dibanding perusahaan dengan aset sedang maupun kecil.

firms or large sized firms to claim that high borrowing costs constrain them from borrowing from banks (Graph 7). Meeting bank administrative requirements is more of a problem for small sized firms and medium sized firms than it is for large sized firms. Most large firms, by comparison, cited the assessment of high business risk by banks as a reason why they found it difficult to borrow from banks.

ƒ Perusahaan dengan pembagian menurut jenis sektor

ƒ Broken down by sector, high borrowing costs is the main

menunjukkan alasan yang sama bahwa biaya tinggi merupakan kendala utama meminjam dari bank, diikuti oleh sulitnya memenuhi persyaratan administrasi bank dan risiko yang dinilai tinggi oleh bank. Sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran paling banyak merasakan biaya untuk meminjam bank tinggi, diikuti oleh sektor pertanian dan sektor jasajasa, sedangkan sektor keuangan paling rendah. Kendala sulitnya memenuhi persyaratan administrasi dari bank paling banyak dirasakan oleh sektor manufaktur, diikuti oleh sektor pertanian dan sektor jasa-jasa, sedangkan sektor keuangan paling rendah. Sektor yang paling banyak dinilai risiko bisnis masih tinggi oleh bank adalah sektor pertanian, disusul oleh sektor keuangan dan sektor manufaktur, sedangkan sektor jasa-jasa paling rendah.

constraint from borrowing from banks, followed by difficulties in meeting bank administrative requirements and the high business risk cited by banks. Companies in the trade, hotels and restaurants sector were more likely to claim that high borrowing costs were a constraint on bank borrowing, followed by companies in the agriculture and services sectors. Companies in the financial sector, meanwhile, were least likely to view high borrowing costs as a constraint on bank borrowing. Meanwhile, difficulties in meeting bank administrative requirements were a particular problem for companies in the manufacturing sector, followed by companies in the agriculture and services sectors. Companies in the financial sector, by comparison, were least likely to find difficulties in meeting bank administrative requirements. As for high business risk, this problem particularly constrained companies in the financial and manufacturing sector whereas companies in the services sector were least affected.

GRAPH 7. REASONS NOT TO BORROW FROM BANKS BROKEN DOWN BY ASSETS SIZE AND SECTOR A. Reasons Not to Borrow from Banks by Assets Size

B. Reasons Not to Borrow from Banks by Business Sector

30%

30%

25%

25% 20%

20%

15%

15%

10%

10% 5%

5%

High Cost

Difficult Admin

High Risk

Small Assets

High Cost

Difficult Admin

High Risk

Medium Assets

High Cost

Difficult Admin Large Assets

High Risk

High Cost Difficult Admin High Risk High Cost Difficult Admin High Risk High Cost Difficult Admin High Risk High Cost Difficult Admin High Risk High Cost Difficult Admin High Risk

0%

0%

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Trade, Htl, Resto

Financial

Services

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

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Pendanaan dari Pasar Modal

Financing from the Capital Market

ƒ Pendanaan dari pasar modal antara lain bisa didapatkan

ƒ Companies can obtain funds from the capital market by

melalui penerbitan saham, saham preferen, obligasi, right issue dan warrant. Namun, hingga saat ini jumlah perusahaan yang memanfaatkan pasar modal sebagai sumber pendanaan masih sangat rendah dibanding yang menggunakan pinjaman bank dan dana sendiri. Untuk rencana penggunaan pasar modal sebagai sumber dana dalam satu tahun ke depannya juga masih direspon secara skeptis. Di tiga tahun terakhir ini perusahaan yang berencana dalam satu tahun ke depan menggunakan pasar modal secara rata-rata tidak sampai 10 persen (Grafik 8).

issuing shares, preference stocks, bonds, conducting a rights issue or issuing warrants. However, until now the number of companies which have utilized the capital market as a financing source is still low compared to bank borrowing and using internal funds. Plans to use the capital market for raising funds over the next one year are also low. Over the last three years, less than 10 percent of companies expressed plans to use the capital market as a way to obtain funds over the year ahead (Graph 8).

ƒ Companies were reluctant to use the capital market for several ƒ Beberapa alasan diungkapkan perusahaan seperti belum adanya rencana ekspansi, modal sendiri masih mencukupi, belum memahami pasar modal dan lainnya. Alasan utama yang paling banyak diungkapkan adalah perusahaan merasa modal sendiri masih mencukupi dan belum adanya rencana untuk ekspansi sehingga masih belum memerlukan pendanaan melalui pasar modal. Hanya sedikit perusahaan yang merasa belum memahami pasar modal. Konsisten dengan penggunaan dana internal sebagai sumber dana favorit, maka jika perusahaan memerlukan pendanaan barang modal atau berencana untuk ekspansi, perusahaan akan mengandalkan dana sendiri, kemudian pinjaman perbankan, dan penggunaan pasar modal menjadi alternatif pendanaan yang paling akhir dipilih oleh perusahaan.

reasons including: having no expansion plans, having sufficient internal funds, and not possessing enough knowledge on the workings of the capital market. In particular, companies believed that their internal funds were sufficient and they also had no plans to undertake expansion in the foreseeable future. Only a small number of companies believed that their understanding of the capital markets was low. Consistent with their preference to use internal funds as a financing source, when firms need to finance their capital expenditures or plan to undertake expansion, they will first use internal funds and after that borrow from banks. Seeking funds from the capital market is their last resort.

GRAPH 8. PLANS TO OBTAIN FUNDING FROM THE CAPITAL MARKET OVER THE NEXT YEAR AND REASONS NOT TO USE THE CAPITAL MARKET A. Plans to Use the capital market 100%

B. Reasons Not to use the Capital Market 60%

90%

50%

80% 70%

40%

60%

30%

50%

20%

40% 30%

10%

20%

0%

10% 0% Plans to Use Cap Mkt

No Plans to Use Cap Mkt

No Expansion Plans

Adequate Internal Funds

Weak Understanding of Cap Mkt

Other Reasons

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

ƒ Ditilik dari besar kecilnya aset perusahaan, semakin kecil

ƒ Based on assets size, smaller sized firms were less likely to seek

perusahaan semakin tidak berminat untuk mendapatkan dana dari pasar modal (Grafik 9). Semakin kecil aset perusahaan, juga semakin banyak yang menyatakan belum akan ekspansi, dan semakin banyak yang tidak memahami pasar modal.

funds from the capital market (Graph 9). Furthermore, smaller sized firms are also less likely to have expansion plans and less likely to understand the workings of the capital market.

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GRAPH 9. PLANS TO OBTAIN FUNDING FROM THE CAPITAL MARKET AND REASONS NOT TO USE A. Plans to Use the Capital Market (Based on Assets Size)

THE CAPITAL MARKET (BASED ON ASSETS SIZE)

B. Reasons Not to Use the Capital Market (Based on Assets Size) 35%

12%

30%

10%

25% 20%

8%

15%

6%

10%

4%

0%

Plans to Use Cap Mkt

Small Assets

Medium Assets

Large Assets

Small Assets

Medium Assets

Other Reasons

Plans to Use Cap Mkt

No Expansion Plans Adequate Internal Funds Weak Understanding

Plans to Use Cap Mkt

Other Reasons

0%

No Expansion Plans Adequate Internal Funds Weak Understanding

2%

Other Reasons

No Expansion Plans Adequate Internal Funds Weak Understanding

5%

Large Assets

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

ƒ Secara sektoral, perusahaan yang paling tidak berminat

ƒ By sector, firms least likely to seek funds from the capital

untuk mendapatkan pendanaan dari pasar modal adalah sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, sedangkan yang paling berminat adalah sektor keuangan (Grafik 10). Kecukupan modal sendiri paling banyak dirasakan sektor keuangan, kemudian sektor manufaktur dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran sehingga menjadi penghalang untuk mencari dana dari pasar modal, sedangkan paling sedikit dirasakan oleh sektor pertanian. Belum adanya rencana untuk ekspansi paling banyak dikemukakan sektor pertanian dan paling sedikit adalah sektor keuangan. Pengetahuan tentang pasar modal dirasakan paling minim oleh sektor pertanian, dan paling tinggi oleh sektor keuangan.

market are in the trade, hotels and restaurants sector. By contrast, firms in the financial sector are most likely to seek funds from the capital market (Graph 10). Having sufficient internal funds particularly dissuaded companies in the financial sector, manufacturing sector and trade, hotels and restaurants sector from resorting to the capital market for funding, while this factor least affected firms in the agricultural sector. In particular, firms in the agricultural sector claimed a lack of expansion plans was a main reason for not seeking funds from the capital market. This factor least affected firms in the financial sector. Not possessing enough knowledge on the workings of the capital market was a particular issue for firms in the agricultural sector whilst this issue least affected firms in the financial sector.

GRAPH10. PLANS TO OBTAIN FUNDS FROM THE CAPITAL MARKET AND REASONS NOT TO USE A. Plans to Obtain Funds from the Capital Market (Based on

THE CAPITAL MARKET S (BASED ON SECTOR)

B. Reasons Not to Use the Capital Market (Based on Sector)

Sector) 25%

80% 70% 60%

20%

50% 40%

15%

30% 20%

10%

10%

Services

Manufacturing Trade, Htl, Resto

Financial

Weak

A d e q u a te

N o E xp a n sio n

Weak

A d e q u a te

N o E xp a n sio n

Weak

A d e q u a te

N o E xp a n sio n

Weak

A d e q u a te

N o E xp a n sio n

Weak

Agriculture

O th e r R e a so n s

Financial

O th e r R e a so n s

Trade, Htl, Resto

O th e r R e a so n s

Manufacturing

O th e r R e a so n s

Agriculture

O th e r R e a so n s

0%

A d e q u a te

N o E xp a n sio n

0% 5%

Services

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

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Pemantauan Terhadap Pergerakan IHSG, Inflasi, Suku Bunga Pinjaman, dan Rupiah

JSI, Inflation, Lending Rate and IDR Monitoring ƒ Some economic indicators - such as the JSI, inflation, bank lending rates, and the IDR/USD exchange rate – need to be given close attention by firms in their operational and financial decision making. However, not all firms are capable of making predictions of these economic indicators. Of these four indicators, firms were most confident in predicting the IDR/USD exchange rate, followed, in turn, by the bank lending rate, the inflation rate and the JSI. Companies were least confident in predicting the direction of the JSI (Graph 11), which is consistent with the finding that firms are most unlikely to seek funds from the capital market. By contrast, companies were most confident in predicting the IDR/USD exchange rate given its significance in affecting a firm’s operating performance. At the same time, companies were also quite willing to make predictions of bank lending rates in the future given that this indicator determines the cost of borrowing from banks. Since 2008, the relative importance of these economic indicators to companies has not changed, according to our survey: i.e. companies are still most willing to forecast the IDR currency, followed, in turn, by the bank lending rate, inflation and, lastly, the JSI.

ƒ Beberapa indikator ekonomi seperti IHSG, inflasi, suku bunga pinjaman dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap USD menentukan keputusan operasional dan keuangan perusahaan. Namun tidak semua perusahaan dapat memahami dan memprediksi arah pergerakan indikator-indikator ekonomi tersebut. Dari keempat indikator tersebut, yang paling banyak dimonitor pergerakannya oleh perusahaan adalah nilai tukar Rupiah, kemudian suku bunga pinjaman perbankan, inflasi dan IHSG. Perkembangan IHSG adalah yang paling banyak tidak diketahui pergerakannya (Grafik 11), yang mana konsisten dengan minat yang sangat minim dari perusahaan terhadap pendanaan dari pasar modal. Sebaliknya, nilai tukar Rupiah menjadi indikator yang paling dipantau, dimana pergerakan Rupiah terkait dengan keputusan operasional perusahaan. Sedangkan pergerakan suku bunga pinjaman menjadi indikator kedua yang paling banyak dimonitor, terkait dengan biaya pendanaan perusahaan melalui perbankan. Perkembangan dari pemantauan pergerakan indikator memperlihatkan tidak ada perubahan terhadap urutan dari tingkat perhatian dan pemahaman masing-masing indikator, dengan kata lain sejak 2008 hingga saat ini urutan dari pemahaman perusahaan tetap sama, yaitu yang paling banyak mendapat perhatian pergerakannya adalah Rupiah, kemudian suku bunga pinjaman, inflasi dan terakhir adalah IHSG.

GRAPH 11. JSI, INFLATION, LENDING RATE AND IDR AWARENESS A. JSI, Inflation, Lending Rate, and IDR Awareness

B. JSI, Inflation, Lending Rate, and IDR Awareness Over Time

35%

60%

30%

50%

55%

45% 40%

25%

35%

20%

30% 25%

15%

20% 15%

10%

10% 5%

5%

0%

0% Unsure of JSI Direction

Unsure of Inflation Unsure of Lending Direction Rate Direction

Unsure of IDR Direction

J M M J

S N J M M J

S N J M M J

S N J M M J

S N J M M J

S N J M M J

S N J M

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Unsure of JSI Direction

Unsure of Inflation Direction

Unsure of Lending Rate Direction

Unsure of IDR Direction

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

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ƒ Perusahaan dalam kategori aset yang berbeda mempunyai

ƒ Companies in the three categories of assets size – small,

kesamaan mengenai faktor yang paling diperhatikan dan dimonitor arah pergerakannya, secara berurutan yaitu nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap USD, suku bunga pinjaman, inflasi, dan yang terakhir adalah IHSG. Tingkat ketidakpahaman terhadap faktor-faktor tersebut sebanding dengan kategori perusahaan dimana perusahaan lebih kecil semakin banyak yang tidak memahami mengenai arah pergerakan indikatorindikator tersebut (Grafik 12).

medium and large – are all more willing to predict the IDR/USD exchange rate, followed, in turn, by the bank lending rate, the inflation rate and the JSI. The confidence to make predictions correlates to the assets size of the companies, whereby smaller firms are less able to provide forecasts for these indicators (Graph 12).

GRAPH 12. JSI, INFLATION, LENDING RATE AND IDR AWARENESS BASED ON ASSETS SIZE 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%

Small Assets

Medium Assets

Unsure of IDR Direction

Unsure of Lending Rate Direction

Unsure of Inflation Direction

Unsure of JSI Direction

Unsure of IDR Direction

Unsure of Lending Rate Direction

Unsure of Inflation Direction

Unsure of JSI Direction

Unsure of IDR Direction

Unsure of Lending Rate Direction

Unsure of Inflation Direction

Unsure of JSI Direction

0%

Large Assets

Source: Danareksa Research Institute

ƒ Akurasi dari prediksi perusahaan terhadap arah pergerakan keempat indikator 6 bulan ke depan juga menunjukkan bahwa tiga indikator dapat diprediksi arah pergerakannya secara cukup akurat, yaitu tingkat inflasi, Rupiah terhadap USD dan suku bunga pinjaman, sedangkan arah pergerakan IHSG kurang dapat diprediksi secara akurat (Grafik 13). Prediksi perusahaan tentang arah pergerakan tingkat inflasi, naik turunnya nilai tukar Rupiah, dan tingkat suku bunga pinjaman, menunjukkan pola yang sama dengan pergerakan yang terjadi sesungguhnya. Kebalikannya, prediksi perusahaan terhadap arah pergerakan IHSG kurang sesuai dengan pergerakan IHSG, yang menunjukkan ketidakpahaman perusahaan terhadap arah pergerakan IHSG.

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ƒ Interestingly, firms’ predictions for the IDR/USD exchange rate, the lending rate, and inflation over the next six months are fairly accurate (Graph 13). The predictions made by the companies on the future movements of the IDR/USD exchange rate, the lending rate and inflation show a similar pattern as the actual movements of these indicators. By contrast, however, firms’ predictions for the JSI movements over the next six months were less accurate.

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GRAPH 13. JSI, INFLATION, LENDING RATE AND IDR PREDICTIONS B. Inflation Trend Prediction and Inflation Actual Movements

A. JSI Trend Prediction and JSI Actual Movements 6.000

45%

100%

14

90%

40% 5.000 35% 30%

4.000

12

80% 10

70% 60%

25% 3.000

20% 15%

2.000

8

50% 6

40% 30%

10% 1.000 5% 0%

0%

J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FM 2009

2010

2011

Higher JSI Prediction - LHS

2012

2013

2

10%

0 2008

4

20%

0 J AS OND J FMAMJ J AS ON D J FMAMJ J AS OND J FMAMJ J A S OND J FMAMJ J AS O ND J FMAMJ J AS OND J FM

2014

2008

Real JSI Movement (Lag 6 Months) - RHS

2009

2010

2011

Higher Inflation Prediction - LHS

C. Lending Rate Trend Prediction and Lending Rate Actual

2012

2013

2014

Real Inflation Movement (Lag 6 Months) - RHS

D. IDR Trend Prediction and IDR Actual Movements

Movements 70%

16

60%

14

14.000

60%

12.000

50%

12

50%

10.000 40%

10 8.000

40% 8

30% 6.000

30% 6

20% 4.000

20%

4 10%

10%

2.000

2

0%

0 J A S O N D J F MAMJ J A S O N D J F MAMJ J A S O N D J F MAMJ J A S O N D J F MAMJ J A S O N D J F MAMJ J A S O N D J F 2008

2009

2010

Higher Lending Rate Prediction - LHS

2011

2012

2013

Real Lending Rate Movement (Lag 6 Months) - RHS

2014

0%

0 J AS ON D J FMAMJ J AS ON D J FMAMJ J AS ON D J FMAMJ J A S O ND J F MAMJ J A S O ND J F MAMJ J A S O ND J F M 2008

2009

2010

Weaker IDR Prediction - LHS

2011

2012

2013

2014

Real IDR Movement (Lag 6 Months) - RHS

Source: CEIC andDanareksa Research Institute

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Arah Suku Bunga Pinjaman dan Minat terhadap Pinjaman Bank

Lending Rate Trend and the Willingness of Firm to Borrow from Banks

ƒ Tren suku bunga pinjaman bank cenderung dikuti oleh

ƒ The lending rate tends to move in line with the desire of firms

pergerakan pendanaan melalui pinjaman bank baik untuk pendanaan barang modal saat ini maupun 6 bulan ke depan (Grafik 14). Ketika suku bunga pinjaman naik, jumlah perusahaan yang menggunakan pinjaman bank berkurang dan sebaliknya, yang merupakan indikasi bahwa perusahaan memperhatikan naik turunnya biaya bunga dalam pembiayaan barang modal. Hal ini menunjukkan adanya minat perusahaan terhadap pinjaman bank sebagai sumber pendanaan eksternal.

to use bank borrowing for capital expenditure today and over the next 6 months (Graph 14). When lending rates increase, the number of firms borrowing from banks declines, and vice versa, indicating that firms closely monitor the movements of lending rates since they influence the cost of capital of financing expenditure. This highlights the relative attractiveness of bank borrowing as a source of external funding.

GRAPH 14. THE LENDING RATE AND FIRMS’ DESIRE TO BORROW FROM BANKS 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 J FMAMJ J AS OND J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J AS OND J FMAMJ J AS OND J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J AS OND J FM 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Using Bank Loans to Fund Current Capex - LHS Using Bank Loans to Fund Capex over the Next 6 Months - LHS Lending Rate - RHS Source: CEIC andDanareksa Research Institute

Arah IHSG dan Minat terhadap Pendanaan Melalui Pasar Modal

The JSI Trend and the Willingness of Firms to Raise Funds from the Capital Market

ƒ Pasar modal masih belum menjadi pilihan favorit perusahaan

ƒ The capital market is still not a popular alternative for companies

untuk mendanai pembelanjaan barang modalnya. Seperti disebutkan sebelumnya, rata-rata pendanaan tahun 20082014 dari pasar modal hanya sebesar satu persen. Tren IHSG yang positif tidak cukup mendukung pemanfaatan pasar modal Indonesia sebagai sumber pendanaan perusahaan. Kenaikan IHSG tidak cukup menarik minat perusahaan untuk mendanai belanja barang modal saat ini maupun 6 bulan ke depan melalui pasar modal (Grafik 15).

to raise funds to finance their capital expenditure. As previously mentioned, only one percent firms raised funds through the capital market in 2008-2014 on average, which is very low compared to the other financing sources. Despite the uptrend in the JSI, this was not enough to encourage more companies to raise funds from the Indonesian capital market as a source of external financing for either their current or future capital expenditure (Graph 15).

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GRAPH 15. THE JSI AND THE WILLINGNESS OF FIRMS TO RAISE FUNDS FROM THE CAPITAL MARKET 4,5%

6.000

4,0% 5.000 3,5% 3,0%

4.000

2,5% 3.000 2,0% 1,5%

2.000

1,0% 1.000 0,5% 0,0%

0 J FMAMJ J AS OND J FMAMJ J AS OND J FMAMJ J AS OND J FMAMJ J ASO ND J F MAMJ J ASO ND J F MAMJ J ASO ND J F M 2008

2009

Currently Using Cap Mkt - LHS

2010

2011 Over the Next 6 Months - LHS

2012

2013

2014

JSI Real Movement - RHS

Source: CEIC andDanareksa Research Institute

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RESEARCH TEAM

Damhuri Nasution

Pramayanti Meitisari

Head of Economic Research [email protected]

Analyst [email protected]

Asti Suwarni Analyst [email protected]

Handri Thiono Junior Economist [email protected]

Darwin Sitorus Economist / Database Officer [email protected]

Yun Hariadi Analyst [email protected]

Natalia Daisyana Research Assistant [email protected]

Martin Jenkins Editor [email protected]

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