ANALISIS KELAYAKAN BISNIS PENYEDIA LAYANAN INTERNET IMPLEMENTASI TEKNOLOGI BROADBAND WIRELESS ACCESS STUDI KASUS: SEBUAH KONSORSIUM ISP DI BANDUNG
PROYEK AKHIR
Oleh : CANDRA TAUFIK NIM : 29106335
Program Magister Administrasi Bisnis Sekolah Bisnis dan Manajemen INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG 2008
ANALISIS KELAYAKAN BISNIS PENYEDIA LAYANAN INTERNET IMPLEMENTASI TEKNOLOGI BROADBAND WIRELESS ACCESS STUDI KASUS: SEBUAH KONSORSIUM ISP DI BANDUNG CANDRA TAUFIK NIM: 29106335 Tanggal Lulus Ujian Akhir (12/06/2008) Tanggal Wisuda (19/07/2008) Program Pascasarjana, Institut Teknologi Bandung, 2008 Pembimbing: Ir. Leo Aldianto, MSAE, MBA
ABSTRAK Pada tanggal 6 Februari 2008, empat perusahaan ISP (Internet Service Provider) dan satu perusahaan Reseller NAP (Network Access Provider) mendirikan sebuah Konsorsium yang diberi nama Perkumpulan ISP Bandung (PIB), bertujuan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan semua anggotanya dan akan mengembangkan binisnya khusus di kota Bandung. Untuk bisa bertahan dan berkembang dalam kondisi persaingan yang sangat ketat saat ini, PIB memutuskan untuk mengembangkan bisnis penyedia layanan internet berbasiskan teknologi Broadband wireless access. Asumsi-asumsi Go/No-Go telah dibuat untuk mempermudah penilaian terhadap rencana bisnis tersebut, namun yang menjadi permasalahan adalah bagaimana pengujiannya sehingga Konsorsium dapat memutuskan layak tidaknya eksekusi rencana bisnisnya. Tugas akhir ini akan membantu menyelesaikan masalah pengujian Go/No-Go Assumptions sehingga diperoleh kesimpulan mengenai layak dan tidaknya eksekusi business plan, saran keputusan, dan kondisi yang menjadi syarat untuk keberhasilan bisnis penyedia layanan internet Konsorsium. Berdasarkan pengujian asumsi serta dengan menggunakan pendekatan pengambilan keputusan (Decision Tree) diperoleh hasil bahwa return untuk keputusan Go adalah sebesar Rp. 31,960,875,- sedangkan keputusan No-Go memiliki return Rp. 0,-. Keputusan Go mencakup tiga alternative investasi teknologi, yaitu investasi Wi-Fi type Line of Sight (LOS) dengan return Rp -368,982,517; Wi-Fi No Line of Sight (NLOS) dengan return Rp -1,167,816,318; dan WiMAX dengan return Rp. 31,960,875,-. Oleh karena itu disarankan agar prioritas pertama investasi adalah investasi WiMAX dan investasi Wi-Fi-LOS sebagai prioritas kedua. Karena nilai keputusan Go adalah positif, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa bisnis penyedia layanan internet yang dikembangkan oleh Konsorsium PIB layak dan rencana bisnisnya disarankan untuk dieksekusi, dengan syarat: - Memperoleh izin penggunaan frekwensi dan mendapatkan standardisasi perangkat. - Bisa memperoleh tambahan Bandwith lebih dari 0,5 Gbps. - Memperoleh investor/sumber pendanaan untuk biaya operasional dan marketing. Kata Kunci: analisis kelayakan, pengujian asumsi Go/No-Go, Decision Tree.
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FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INTERNET SERVICE PROVIDER BUSINESS IMPLEMENTATION OF BROADBAND WIRELESS ACCESS TECHNOLOGY CASE STUDY OF AN ISP CONSORTIUM IN BANDUNG CANDRA TAUFIK NIM: 29106335 Examination Date (12/06/2008) Graduation Date (19/07/2008) Program Pascasarjana, Institut Teknologi Bandung, 2008 Advisor: Ir. Leo Aldianto, MSAE, MBA
ABSTRACT At February 6, 2008, four Internet Service Provider (ISP) and one reseller of Network Access Provider (NAP) established a consortium that is named as Perkumpulan ISP Bandung (PIB). It is aimed at increasing growth and profit of all it’s member and develop their business in Bandung. To survive and grow at this current hard competition, PIB decides to develop new internet service business based on Broadband Wireless Access. PIB creates the business plan and Go/No-Go Assumptions to simplify the valuation of the business feasibility. The problem is how to test the Assumptions in order to decide whether this business is feasible or not. This final project/thesis will help to solve the problem of “Go/No-Go” Assumptions testing academically until the suggestion of decision is found and requirements for the success of the internet service business is defined. According to assumption test and the Decision Tree as the approach of decision making process, it is found that “Go” decision has the return of Rp. 31,960,875,-, No-Go decision has the return of Rp. 0,-. “Go” Decision includes three technology investment alternatives, i.e. investment in Wi-Fi Line of Sight (LOS) type with return of Rp 368,982,517, Wi-Fi No Line of Sight (NLOS) type with return of Rp -1,167,816,318; and WiMAX with return of Rp. 31,960,875,-. Therefore the main priority of investment is WiMAX and the second is Wi-Fi-LOS. Because of “Go” decision has a positive return, then we can conclude that Internet Service Business that will be developed by consortium is feasible, and the business plan is suggested to be executed with conditions: - Getting permition for using BWA frequency (2.3 or 5.8 GHz) and after that getting hardware standardization. - Getting additional Bandwith for internet access more than 0.5 Gbps. - Finding Investor/financial resources for financing the operational and marketing activities. Key Words: Feasibility analysis, Go/No-Go assumption, Decision Tree.
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DAFTAR ISI
ABSTRAK ........................................................................................................................ i ABSTRACT.......................................................................................................................ii DAFTAR ISI...................................................................................................................iii DAFTAR LAMPIRAN.................................................................................................... v DAFTAR GAMBAR .....................................................................................................vii DAFTAR TABEL........................................................................................................... ix DAFTAR SINGKATAN ................................................................................................. x KATA PENGANTAR ...................................................................................................xii BAB I PENDAHULUAN ............................................................................................... 1 1.1. Profil Konsorsium PIB.......................................................................................... 1 1.2. Anggota Konsorsium PIB ..................................................................................... 1 1.2.1. PT Reseler NAP (RNAP)............................................................................... 2 1.2.2. PT ISP-I (ISP1) .............................................................................................. 2 1.2.3. PT ISP-II (ISP2)............................................................................................. 3 1.2.4. PT ISP-III (ISP3) ........................................................................................... 4 1.2.5. PT ISP-IV (ISP4) ........................................................................................... 5 1.3. Kerjasama di dalam Konsorsium PIB ................................................................... 6 1.4. Visi, Misi dan Tujuan Konsorsium ....................................................................... 7 1.5. Sumber Daya Manusia .......................................................................................... 8 1.6. Isu Bisnis yang Dihadapi Konsorsium.................................................................. 8 BAB II EKSPLORASI ISU BISNIS ............................................................................. 11 2.1. Conceptual Framework ....................................................................................... 11 2.2. Analisis Situasi Bisnis......................................................................................... 12 2.2.1. Situasi Kompetisi ......................................................................................... 12 2.2.2. Situasi Teknologi ......................................................................................... 14 2.2.2.1. Broadband Wireless Access Technology – Wi-Fi ................................ 15 2.2.2.2. Broadband Wireless Access Technology – WiMAX............................ 17 2.2.2.3. 3G.......................................................................................................... 20 2.2.2.4. Trend Implementasi Teknologi BWA................................................... 21
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2.2.2.5. Teknologi dalam Struktur Industri Service Komunikasi ...................... 22 2.2.3. Situasi Regulasi............................................................................................ 23 2.2.3.1. Regulasi Frekwensi ............................................................................... 23 2.2.3.2. Izin Mendirikan Bangunan.................................................................... 24 2.2.3.3. Izin Penyelenggaraan ISP ..................................................................... 25 2.3. Akar Masalah ...................................................................................................... 25 BAB III SOLUSI BISNIS.............................................................................................. 27 3.1. Metodologi Penelitian ......................................................................................... 27 3.2. Eksplorasi Go/No-Go Assumptions.................................................................... 29 3.2.1. Metode Eksplorasi Go/No-Go Assumptions................................................. 29 3.2.2. Go/No-Go Assumptions................................................................................ 29 3.3. Pengujian Go/No-Go Assumptions..................................................................... 33 3.3.1. Metode Pendekatan Pengujian ..................................................................... 33 3.3.2. Questioners, Studi Literature, Survey & Wawancara, dan Financial Projection & Analysis ............................................................................................ 36 3.3.2.1. Questioners............................................................................................ 36 3.3.2.2. Studi Literature ..................................................................................... 46 3.3.2.3. Survey & wawancara ............................................................................ 53 3.3.2.4. Financial Projections & Analysis.......................................................... 58 3.3.3.5. Capital Budgeting ................................................................................. 65 3.3.3. Kesimpulan Pengujian ................................................................................. 69 3.4. Proses Pengambilan Keputusan .......................................................................... 72 3.4.1. Pendekatan Pengambilan Keputusan ........................................................... 72 3.4.2. Kesimpulan dan Saran Keputusan ............................................................... 76 BAB IV Rencana Implementasi dan Kebutuhan Sumber Daya.................................... 77 4.1. Rencana Implementasi ........................................................................................ 77 4.2. Kebutuhan Sumber Daya .................................................................................... 80 4.3. Kunci Sukses....................................................................................................... 81 DAFTAR PUSTAKA .................................................................................................... 83
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DAFTAR LAMPIRAN
LAMPIRAN A TEKNOLOGI INTERNET & INTERNET VALUE NETWORK ...... 87 A.1. Teknologi Internet .............................................................................................. 87 A.2. Internet Value Network...................................................................................... 89 LAMPIRAN B TEKNOLOGI LAST MILE LAINNYA............................................... 91 B.1. Digital Subcriber Lines (DSL) ........................................................................... 91 B.2. Cable Television................................................................................................. 92 B.3. Fiber Optic (FO) ................................................................................................. 92 B.4. Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT)............................................................. 93 B.5. Power Line Communication (PLC).................................................................... 94 LAMPIRAN C KOMPONEN MODAL & INVESTASI AWAL ................................ 97 C.1. Salary & Incentives ............................................................................................ 97 C.1.1. Salary & insentif dalam Pengembangan Bisnis WiMAX ........................... 97 C.1.2. Salary & insentif dalam Pengembangan Bisnis Wi-Fi................................ 98 C.2. Infrastruktur........................................................................................................ 98 C.2.1. Infrastruktur Utama Wi-Fi LOS .................................................................. 98 C.2.2. Infrastruktur Utama Wi-Fi NLOS ............................................................... 99 C.2.2. Infrastruktur Utama WiMAX ...................................................................... 99 C.2.3. Infrastruktur Penunjang Wi-Fi/WiMAX ..................................................... 99 C.3. Operational/Modal Kerja.................................................................................. 100 C.4. Overhead .......................................................................................................... 100 C.4.1. Overhead Wi-Fi LOS ................................................................................ 100 C.4.2. Overhead Wi-Fi NLOS ............................................................................. 100 C.4.3. Overhead WiMAX .................................................................................... 101 LAMPIRAN D FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS ............................................................ 103 D.1. Income Proforma.............................................................................................. 103 D.1.1. Income Proforma untuk Investasi Wi-Fi-LOS.......................................... 103 D.1.2. Income Proforma untuk Investasi Wi-Fi-NLOS....................................... 104 D.1.3. Income Proforma untuk Investasi WiMAX .............................................. 105 D.2. Balancesheet Proforma..................................................................................... 106 D.2.1. Balancesheet Proforma untuk Investasi Wi-Fi-LOS ................................ 106 D.2.2. Balancesheet Proforma untuk Investasi Wi-Fi-NLOS ............................. 107 v
D.2.3. Balancesheet Proforma untuk Investasi WiMAX .................................... 108 D.3. Cashflow Proforma .......................................................................................... 109 D.3.1. Cashflow Proforma untuk Wi-Fi-LOS...................................................... 109 D.3.2. Cashflow Proforma untuk Wi-Fi-NLOS................................................... 110 D.3.3. Cashflow Proforma untuk WiMAX.......................................................... 111 D.4. Capital Budgeting............................................................................................. 112 D.4.1. Capital Budgeting WiMAX ...................................................................... 112 D.4.2. Capital Budgeting Wi-Fi NLOS ............................................................... 113 D.4.3. Capital Budgeting Wi-Fi LOS .................................................................. 114 LAMPIRAN E DECISION TREE DIAGRAM .......................................................... 115 LAMPIRAN F BUDGET PEMASARAN .................................................................. 119 LAMPIRAN G ANALISIS SENSITIFITAS.............................................................. 121 G.1. Analisis Sensitifitas untuk WiMAX................................................................. 121 G.1.1. Nilai Input ................................................................................................. 121 G.1.2. Nilai Output............................................................................................... 121 G.1.3. Nilai Ayunan (Swing)................................................................................ 122 G.2. Analisis Sensitifitas untuk Wi-Fi NLOS.......................................................... 122 G.2.1. Nilai Input ................................................................................................. 122 G.2.2. Nilai Output............................................................................................... 123 G.2.3. Nilai Ayunan (Swing)................................................................................ 123 G.2.4. Grafik Analisis Sensitifitas ....................................................................... 124 G.3. Analisis Sensitifitas untuk Wi-Fi LOS............................................................. 124 G.3.1. Nilai Input ................................................................................................. 124 G.3.2. Nilai Output............................................................................................... 125 G.3.3. Nilai Ayunan (Swing)................................................................................ 125 G.3.4. Grafik Analisis Sensitifitas ....................................................................... 126 LAMPIRAN H QUESTIONERS DAN RAW DATA................................................ 127 H.1. QUESTIONERS .............................................................................................. 127 H.2. RAW DATA .................................................................................................... 131
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DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 1.1 Jumlah Pelanggan ISP1................................................................................ 3 Gambar 1.2 Jumlah Pelanggan ISP4................................................................................ 6 Gambar 1.3. Gambar Struktur Organisasi Konsorsium ................................................... 8 Gambar 2.1. Conceptual Framework ............................................................................. 11 Gambar. 2.2. Implementasi Wi-Fi ................................................................................. 16 Gambar. 2.3 Canopy System ......................................................................................... 17 Gambar. 2.4 Persaingan Teknologi Wireless Network .................................................. 19 Gambar. 2.5. Jaringan WiMAX .................................................................................... 20 Gambar. 2.6. Arah Implementasi Teknologi Wireless Network BWA ......................... 21 Gambar. 2.7. Struktur Industri Service Komunikasi ..................................................... 22 Gambar. 3.1 Metode Analisis Kelayakan Bisnis ........................................................... 27 Gambar 3.2. Statistik Umur Responden......................................................................... 37 Gambar 3.3. Statistik Gender Responden ...................................................................... 37 Gambar 3.4. Statistik Pekerjaan Responden .................................................................. 38 Gambar 3.5. Statistik Pengeluaran untuk Segala Hal .................................................... 38 Gambar 3.6. Statistik Pendidikan Responden ................................................................ 39 Gambar 3.7. Statistik Pengalaman Memakai Jasa ISP................................................... 39 Gambar 3.8. Nilai Rata-rata Kriteria Pertimbangan Pemilihan Penyedia Layanan Internet ................................................................................................................... 40 Gambar 3.9. Kendala Berlangganan Akses Internet ...................................................... 41 Gambar 3.10. Penggunaan Internet................................................................................ 41 Gambar 3.11. Bandwith dan Tariff yang Sesuai Bagi Responden ................................. 42 Gambar 3.12. Media Informasi yang Biasa Digunakan Responden .............................. 43 Gambar 3.13. Minat Responden Terhadap Akses Internet di Rumah............................ 44 Gambar 3.14. Tariff yang Sesuai Bagi Responden ........................................................ 44 Gambar 3.15. Tariff lain yang Sesuai Bagi Responden ................................................ 45 Gambar 3.16. Budget yang Biasa Disediakan Pengguna Internet.................................. 46 Gambar 3.17. Pertumbuhan Pelanggan dan Pemakai Internet Indonesia ..................... 46 Gambar 3.18. Data rates of wireless communication systems ..................................... 49 Gambar 3.19. Analisis Sensitifitas untuk Investasi WiMAX ........................................ 67 vii
Gambar 3.20. Posisi WiMAX dalam Hal Price dan Kualitas........................................ 68 Gambar 3.21. Contoh Decision Tree.............................................................................. 73 Gambar 4.1. Proses Bisnis ISP (-kasus Konsorsium) .................................................... 77 Gambar A.1. Internet Components. ............................................................................... 88 Gambar A.2. Value Network Profit Sites with Representative Companies.................... 89 Gambar B.1. Jaringan ADSL (Source: www.buytelco.net) ........................................... 91 Gambar B.2. Implementasi ADSL (source: www.obengware.com)............................. 92 Gambar B.3. Metro IP Optical Ring ............................................................................. 93 Gambar B.4. Arsitektur VSAT ...................................................................................... 94 Gambar B.5. Arsitektur Jaringan PLC .......................................................................... 95
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DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel. 2.1 Standard 802.11b dan g. ............................................................................... 15 Tabel. 2.2 Perbandingan Perkembangan Teknologi Wireless........................................ 18 Tabel. 2.3 Perbandingan Perkembangan Teknologi Wireless. ...................................... 18 Tabel. 2.4 Advantages and Disadvantages of 3G. ......................................................... 21 Tabel 3.1. Pemetaan Go/No-Go Assumptions ................................................................ 35 Tabel 3.2. SWOT Pilihan Teknologi BWA ................................................................... 57 Tabel 3.3. Jenis Aplikasi untuk Wi-Fi dan WiMAX ..................................................... 57 Tabel 3.4. Modal dan Investasi Awal............................................................................. 59 Tabel 3.5. Sales Forecast ............................................................................................... 60 Tabel 3.6. Tariff Berlangganan, Metode Cash & Leasing untuk Perangkat .................. 61 Tabel 3.7. Proforma of Income Statement – Wi-Fi-LOS................................................ 62 Tabel 3.8. Proforma of Income Statement – Wi-Fi-NLOS ............................................. 63 Tabel 3.9. Proforma of Income Statement – WiMAX ................................................... 63 Tabel 3.10. Rencana Pembayaran Dividend .................................................................. 64 Tabel 3.11. Proforma of Statement of Retained Earning............................................... 64 Tabel 3.12. Proforma of Cashflow Statement– Wi-Fi-LOS ........................................... 65 Tabel 3.13. NPV, IRR, & Payback Period .................................................................... 65 Tabel 3.14. Analisis Rasio ............................................................................................. 66 Tabel 3.15. BEP Investasi .............................................................................................. 69 Tabel 3.16. Kesimpulan Pengujian Asumsi Go/No-Go ................................................. 71 Tabel 3.17. Keputusan dan Event pada Decision Tree................................................... 75 Tabel 3.18. Average Return dari Investasi BWA Pilihan Konsorsium.......................... 76
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DAFTAR SINGKATAN
3G
Third Generation
ADSL
Asynchronous Digital Subscriber Line
AP
Access Point
APJII
Asosiasi Penyelenggara Jasa Internet Indonesia
BBM
Bahan Bakar Minyak
BEP
Breakeven Point
BI
Bank Indonesia
BRTI
Badan Regulasi Telekomunikasi Indonesia
BTS
Base Transceiver Station
BWA
Broadband Wireless Access
CDMA
Code Division Multiple Access
CPE
Customer Premises Equipment
DITJEN
Direktorat Jenderal
DSL
Digital Subscriber Line
EDGE
Enhance Data Rate for Global Evolution
EV-DO
Evolution Data Optimized
FDD
Frequency Division
FO
Fiber Optic
Gbps
Giga bit per second
GHz
Giga Hertz
GPRS
General Packet Radio System
GSM
Global System for Mobile Communications
HSDPA
High Speed Downlink Packet Access
IEEE
Institut of Electrical and Electronics Engineering
IP
Internet Protocol
IPPT
Izin Pemakaian dan Penggunaan Tanah
IRR
Interest Rate of Return
ISP
Internet Service Provider
Kbps
Kilo bit per second
KOMINFO
Komunikasi dan Informasi x
KPU
Kewajiban Pelayanan Universal = USO
LAN
Local Area Network
LOS
Line of Sight
LRIC
Long Run Incremental Cost
Mbps
Mega bit per second
MoU
Memorandum of Understanding
NAP
Network Access Provider
NLOS
Non Line of Sight
NPV
Net Present Value
OSP
Online Service Provider
PDA
Personal Digital Assistance
PIB
Perkumpulan ISP Bandung
PLC
Power Line Communication
PLN
Perusahaan Listrik Negara
POP
Point of Presence
PTP
Point to Point
PSTN
Public Service Telephone Network
PTM
Point to Multipoint
ROE
Return on Equity
SM
Subscriber Modul
SWOT
Strenght, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat.
TCP
Transport Control Protocol
TDD
Time Division Duplexing
TV
Television
UMTS
Universal Mobile Telecommunications System
USB
Universal Serial Bus
USO
Universal Service Obligation
VSAT
Very Small Aperture Terminal
WACC
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
WCDMA
Wideband Code Division Multiple Access
Wi-Fi
Wireless Fidelity
WiMAX
World wide Interoperability for Microwave Access
WLAN
Wireless LAN
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KATA PENGANTAR
Puji dan syukur penulis panjatkan kehadirat Alloh SWT., karena atas berkat ridho-Nya penyusunan tugas akhir ini dapat selesai dan sebagai salah satu syarat untuk menyelesaikan studi pada Program Master Administrasi Bisnis, Institut Teknologi Bandung. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan informasi tentang hasil pengujian beberapa asumsi pada pengembangan bisnis ISP yang mengimplementasikan teknologi broadband wireless access serta alternative investasi teknologi mana yang paling tepat untuk dipilih. Pada kesempatan ini, penulis menyampaikan ucapan terima kasih kepada Bpk. Ir. Leo Aldianto MSAE, MBA selaku dosen pembimbing, Bpk. Direktur RNAP, Bpk. Marketing & Sales Manager RNAP selaku pembimbing lapangan di PIB, Bpk. Mochammad Hadian Lukita sebagai koordinator Internship & Proyek Akhir, Para Key Person dari Anggota PIB, para Staff RNAP, rekan-rekan angkatan 36, serta semua pihak yang mendukung dan mendoakan penulis. Kritik dan saran untuk kesempurnaan penelitian ini sangat diharapkan dan semoga dapat memberikan manfaat bagi pihak-pihak yang membutuhkan.
Bandung, Juni 2008
Penyusun
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