ABSTRACT The main purpose of this research is to compare two different methods of bankcrupty prediction which applied at PT Bumi Resources Tbk. The company was chosen because it could stand against global economic crisis in 2008. The first method is Altman Z-score which is the most common method to predict banckruptcy. The second is Ohlson method which is seldom or even never used to predict bankruptcy. In this case, these methods used to assess the investment at PT Bumi Resources Tbk. and help investors decided whether investment should be made or not. The prediction result is the company will not bankrupt. So, investment should be made by investors.
Keywords: Global economic crisis, Altman Z-score method, Ohlson method.
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ABSTRAK Krisis global tahun 2008 telah meyebabkan banyak perusahaan bangkrut, sehingga iklim investasi Indonesia melemah. Investor mulai bermain aman agar tidak mengalami kerugian. PT Bumi Resources Tbk. merupakan salah satu perusahaan tambang batu bara yang terkena dampak krisis global tahun 2008. Sebagai salah satu perusahaan yang masih bertahan, maka investasi pada PT Bumi Resources Tbk. harus dipikirkan secara matang. Untuk menentukan kelayakan investasi dapat digunakan metode prediksi kebangkrutan. Metode Altman Z-score adalah metode yang paling umum digunakan, sedangkan metode Ohlson masih asing bagi investor. Penggunaan kedua metode ditujukan untuk menguatkan hasil analisis. Analisis dengan kedua metode memberikan hasil bahwa investasi pada PT Bumi Resources Tbk. layak dilakukan.
Kata-kata kunci: Krisis global, Metode Altman Z-score, Metode Ohlson.
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DAFTAR ISI
HALAMA JUDUL ....................................................................................... i HALAMA PEGESAHA.......................................................................... ii PERYATAA ORISIALITAS LAPORA PEELITIA ..................... iii PERYATAA PUBLIKASI LAPORA PEELITIA............................ iv KATA PEGATAR ..................................................................................... v ABSTRACT..................................................................................................... vii ABSTRAK ....................................................................................................... viii DAFTAR ISI ................................................................................................... ix DAFTAR GAMBAR ....................................................................................... xii DAFTAR TABEL ........................................................................................... xiii DAFTAR LAMPIRA ................................................................................... xv
BAB I PEDAHULUA 1.1 Latar Belakang................................................................................. 1 1.2 Identifikasi Masalah......................................................................... 5 1.3 Maksud dan Tujuan Penelitian ......................................................... 6 1.4 Kegunaan Penelitian ........................................................................ 6
BAB II KAJIA PUSTAKA DA KERAGKA PEMIKIRA 2.1 Laporan Keuangan ........................................................................... 8 2.1.1 Definisi Laporan Keuangan ........................................................ 8 2.1.2 Kegunaan Laporan Keuangan .................................................... 8 2.1.3 Sifat Laporan Keuangan ............................................................. 9 2.1.4 Bentuk-bentuk Laporan Keuangan ............................................. 10 2.1.5 Pengguna Laporan Keuangan ..................................................... 14 2.1.6 Keterbatasan Laporan Keuangan ................................................ 16 2.2 Analisa Laporan Keuangan .............................................................. 17
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2.2.1
Definisi Analisa Laporan Keuangan ........................................... 17
2.2.2
Kegunaan Analisa Laporan Keuangan ........................................ 18
2.2.3
Metode Pembanding Analisa Laporan Keuangan ....................... 19
2.2.4
Jenis Rasio Keuangan ................................................................ 20
2.3 Kebangkrutan .................................................................................. 21 2.3.1
Definisi Kebangkrutan ............................................................... 21
2.3.2
Jenis Kebangkrutan .................................................................... 21
2.3.3
Penyebab Kebangkrutan ............................................................. 22
2.4 Prediksi Kebangkrutan ..................................................................... 25 2.4.1
Manfaat Prediksi Kebangkrutan ................................................. 25
2.4.2
Metode Altman Z-score ............................................................. 26
2.4.3
Keterangan Variabel Altman Z-score ......................................... 30
2.4.4
Metode Ohlson........................................................................... 32
2.4.5
Penjelasan Variabel Metode Ohlson ........................................... 34
2.4.6
Alternatif Perbaikan Kesulitan Keuangan ................................... 37
2.5 Investasi........................................................................................... 38 2.5.1
Definisi Investasi ....................................................................... 38
2.5.2
Kategori Investasi ...................................................................... 38
2.5.3
Tipe-tipe Investasi Keuangan ..................................................... 38
2.5.4
Proses Investasi .......................................................................... 39
2.5.5
Strategi Investasi ........................................................................ 41
2.6 Kerangka Pemikiran ........................................................................ 43
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3.1 Objek Penelitian .............................................................................. 45 3.1.1 Visi Perusahaan.......................................................................... 45 3.1.2 Misi Perusahaan ......................................................................... 45 3.1.3 Filosofi Perusahaan .................................................................... 45 3.1.4 Sejarah Singkat Perusahaan ........................................................ 46 3.1.5 Kepemilikan Saham Perusahaan................................................. 47 3.2 Jenis Penelitian ................................................................................ 48 3.3 Definisi Operasional Variabel .......................................................... 49 3.4 Teknik Pengumpulan Data ............................................................... 52 3.5 Analisis Data ................................................................................... 52
BAB IV HASIL PEELITIA DA PEMBAHASA 4.1 Analisis Metode Altman Z-score ..................................................... 54 4.2 Analisis Metode Ohlson ................................................................... 63 4.3 Perbandingan Metode Altman Z-score dan Metode Ohlson.............. 73 4.4 Analisis Kelayakan Investasi PT Bumi Resources Tbk ..................... 76
BAB V SIMPULA DA SARA 5.1 Simpulan ......................................................................................... 78 5.2 Saran ............................................................................................... 79
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ...................................................................................... 80 LAMPIRA .................................................................................................... 83 DAFTAR RIWAYAT HIDUP PEULIS (CURRICULUM VITAE)............. 99 Universitas Kristen Marantha
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DAFTAR GAMBAR
Halaman Gambar 2.1
Jenis Rasio Keuangan ............................................................ 20
Gambar 2.2
Kerangka Pemikiran .............................................................. 44
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DAFTAR TABEL
Halaman Tabel 2.1
Kriteria Interpretasi Altman Z-Score (1968) ........................... 28
Tabel 2.2
Kriteria Interpretasi Altman Z-Score (1983) ........................... 29
Tabel 2.3
Kriteria Hasil Perhitungan Model Ohlson............................... 34
Tabel 3.1
Sejarah Singkat PT Bumi Resources Tbk ............................... 46
Tabel 3.2
Kepemilikan Saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk ........................ 48
Tabel 3.3
Definisi Opersional Variabel Independen Altman Z-score ..... 49
Tabel 3.4
Definisi Opersional Variabel Dependen Altman Z-score ........ 49
Tabel 3.5
Definisi Operasional Variabel Independen Metode Ohlson .... 50
Tabel 3.6
Definisi Operasional Variabel Dependen Metode Ohlson ....... 50
Tabel 3.7
Kriteria Interpretasi Altman Z-Score (1983) ........................... 53
Tabel 3.8
Kriteria Hasil Perhitungan Model Ohlson............................... 53
Tabel 4.1
Kriteria Interpretasi Altman Z-Score (1983) ........................... 55
Tabel 4.2
Perhitungan Variabel Metode Altman Z-score ....................... 56
Tabel 4.3
Perhitungan Z-score PT Bumi Resources Tbk ........................ 57
Tabel 4.4
Kriteria Interpretasi Z-score PT Bumi Resources Tbk ............ 57
Tabel 4.5
Persentase Perubahan Z-score PT Bumi Resources Tbk ......... 57
Tabel 4.6
Kriteria Hasil Perhitungan Model Ohlson............................... 64
Tabel 4.7
Perhitungan Variabel Metode Ohlson..................................... 65
Tabel 4.8
Perhitungan Nilai P Metode Ohlson ....................................... 66
Tabel 4.9
Kriteria Interpretasi Nilai P Metode Ohlson ........................... 66
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Tabel 4.10
Persentase Perubahan Nilai P ................................................. 66
Tabel 4.11
Perbandingan Hasil Altman Z-score dan Ohlson .................... 73
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DAFTAR LAMPIRA
Halaman Lampiran
Laporan Keuangan PT Bumi Resources Tbk .............................. 83
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