DAFTAR ISI
ABSTRACT ..............................................................................................................i ABSTRAK ................................................................................................................ii KATA PENGANTAR ..............................................................................................iii DAFTAR ISI .............................................................................................................vi DAFTAR TABEL ....................................................................................................xi DAFTAR GAMBAR ................................................................................................xiv DAFTAR GRAFIK ..................................................................................................xv DAFTAR LAMPIRAN ............................................................................................xvi
BAB I PENDAHULUAN 1.1 Latar Belakang Penelitian .......................................................................1 1.2 Identifikasi Masalah ................................................................................6 1.3 Maksud dan Tujuan Penelitian ................................................................7 1.4 Manfaat Penelitian...................................................................................7 1.5 Kerangka Pemikiran ................................................................................8 1.6 Hipotesis ..................................................................................................14 1.7 Metode Penelitian ....................................................................................16 1.8 Waktu dan Tempat Penelitian .................................................................17
BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA 2.1 Ruang Lingkup Manajemen Keuangan ...................................................18 2.1.1 Pengertian Manajemen Keuangan .................................................18 2.1.2 Fungsi Manajemen Keuangan .......................................................18 2.1.3 Tujuan Manajemen keunangan ......................................................19 2.2 Pasar Modal .............................................................................................20 2.2.1 Pengertian Pasar Modal .................................................................20 2.2.2 Fungsi Pasar Modal .......................................................................21 vi
2.2.3 Peranan dan Manfaat Pasar Modal ................................................22 2.2.4 Jenis Pasar Modal ..........................................................................22 2.2.5 Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Pasar Modal ..........................23 2.2.6 Instrument Investasi Pasar Modal ..................................................25 2.3 Obligasi ...................................................................................................26 2.3.1 Pengertian Obligasi ........................................................................26 2.3.2 Karakteristik Obligasi ...................................................................28 2.3.3 Jenis-Jenis Obligasi ......................................................................29 2.3.4 Risiko Obligasi ..............................................................................29 2.3.5 Imbal Hasil Obligasi ......................................................................31 2.3.6 Penilaian Obligasi ..........................................................................31 2.3.7 Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Harga Obligasi ......................32 2.4 Tinjauan Investasi ...................................................................................32 2.4.1 Pengertian Investasi .......................................................................32 2.4.2 Jenis–Jenis Investasi ......................................................................33 2.4.3 Tujuan Investasi .............................................................................34 2.4.4 Risiko Investasi ..............................................................................34 2.5 Suku Bunga Deposito ..............................................................................36 2.5.1 Pengertian Suku Bunga..................................................................36 2.5.2 Jenis-Jenis Suku Bunga .................................................................37 2.5.3 Teori Tingkat Suku Bunga .............................................................37 2.5.4.1 Teori Klasik .......................................................................37 2.5.4.2 Teori Keynes ......................................................................38 2.5.5 Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Suku Bunga ..........................39 2.5.6 Deposito .........................................................................................41 2.5.6.1 Pengertian Deposito ...........................................................41 2.5.6.2 Jenis-Jenis Deposito ...........................................................41 2.5.6.3 Manfaat Deposito ...............................................................42 2.6 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ................................................................. 42 2.6.1 Pengertian Gross Domestic Product (GDP).................................... 42 2.6.2 Cara Perhitungan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ........................ 43 vii
2.6.3 Teori Pertumbuhan Ekonomi .........................................................44 2.6.3.1 Teori Jumlah Penduduk Optimal mi ..................................44 2.6.3.2 Teori Pertumbuhan Neoklasik ...........................................45 2.6.3.3 Teori Pertumbuhan Rostow ...............................................46 2.7 Nilai Tukar ..............................................................................................46 2.7.1 Pengertian Nilai Tukar ...................................................................46 2.7.2 Penentuan Nilai Tukar ...................................................................47 2.7.3 Sistem Kurs Mata Uang .................................................................47 2.8 Inflasi .......................................................................................................49 2.8.1 Pengertian Inflasi ...........................................................................49 2.8.2 Dampak Inflasi...............................................................................50 2.8.3 Pengukuran Tingkat Inflasi............................................................51 2.8.4 Teori yang Berkaitan dengan Inflasi ..............................................52 2.8.5 Jenis-Jenis Inflasi ...........................................................................52 2.9 Jumlah Uang Beredar ..............................................................................55 2.9.1 Pengertian Jumlah Uang Beredar ..................................................55 2.9.2 Instrumen Untuk Mengatur Jumlah Uang Beredar ........................57 2.9.3 Komposisi Jumlah Uang yang Beredar ........................................57 2.10Pengaruh Faktor Makroekonomi terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia .............................................................................................58 2.10.1 Pengaruh Suku Bunga terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ....58 2.10.2 Pengaruh Pertumbuhan GDP terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ..........................................................................................58 2.10.3 Pengaruh Nilai Tukar terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ....59 2.10.4 Pengaruh Inflasi terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ..............59 2.10.5 Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ..........................................................................................60
BAB III OBJEK DAN METODE PENELITIAN 3.1 Objek Penelitian ......................................................................................61 3.1.1 Profil Pelaku Pasar Modal di Indonesia.........................................61 viii
3.1.1.1 Gambaran Umum Struktur Organisasi dan Pelaku Pasar Modal di Indonesia ............................................................61 3.1.1.2 Tujuan Pendirian Pasar Modal ...........................................62 3.1.1.3 Fungsi Pasar Modal di Indonesia .......................................63 3.1.2 Kondisi Moneter Indonesia............................................................64 3.2 Metode Penelitian ....................................................................................71 3.2.1 Desain Penelitian ...........................................................................71 3.2.2 Operasionalisasi Variabel .............................................................72 3.2.3 Jenis dan Sumber Data...................................................................76 3.2.4 Teknik Pengumpulan Data ............................................................77 3.2.5 Teknik Pengolahan Data ................................................................77 3.2.6 Populasi dan Sampel Penelitian .....................................................78 3.2.7 Rancangan Analisis .......................................................................78 3.2.7.1 Uji Normalitas Data ...........................................................78 3.2.7.2 Uji Asumsi Klasik ..............................................................79 3.2.7.3 Analisis Statistik Secara Simultan .....................................80 3.2.7.4 Analisis Statistik Secara Parsial .........................................85
BAB IV HASIL PENELITIAN DAN PEMBAHASAN 4.1 Perkembangan Tingkat Suku
Bunga Deposito, Gross Domestic
Product, Nilai Kurs, Tingkat Inflasi, Jumlah Uang Beredar, dan Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ...........90 4.1.1 Perkembangan Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito Periode 2003 – 2012 ...............................................................................................90 4.1.2 Perkembangan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Periode 2003 – 2012 ...............................................................................................92 4.1.3 Perkembangan Nilai Kurs Periode 2003 – 2012 ..........................94 4.1.4 Perkembangan Tingkat Inflasi Periode 2003 – 2012 ....................96 4.1.5 Perkembagan Jumlah Uang Beredar Periode 2003 – 2012 ..........98 4.1.6 Perkembagan Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ...................................................................................100 ix
4.2 Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nilai Kurs (IDR/USD), Tingkat Inflasi, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar Terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 secara Simultan .................................................................102 4.3 Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nilai Kurs (IDR/USD), Tingkat Inflasi, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 secara Parsial ......................................................................111 4.3.1 Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 .....................112 4.3.2 Pengaruh Gross Domestic Product (GDP) terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 .....................116 4.3.3 Pengaruh Nilai Kurs (IDR/USD) terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 .....................................120 4.3.4 Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 .................................................124 4.3.5 Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 .....................................128
BAB V KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN 5.1 Kesimpulan..............................................................................................133 5.2 Saran ........................................................................................................137
DAFTAR PUSTAKA LAMPIRAN
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DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 1.1
Perkembagan Transaksi Obligasi Korporasi di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ..........................................................................................4
Tabel 3.1
Perkembangan Suku Bunga Deposito di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ......................................................................................................64
Tabel 3.2
Perkembangan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 .........................................................................................66
Tabel 3.3
Perkembangan Nilai Kurs di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ..............67
Tabel 3.4
Perkembagan Tingkat Inflasi Periode 2003 – 2012 .............................68
Tabel 3.5
Perkembangan Jumlah Uang Beredar Periode 2003 – 2012 ...............70
Tabel 3.6
Operasionalisasi Variabel Penelitian ....................................................75
Tabel 3.7
Tabel Durbin-Watson (D-W) ................................................................80
Tabel 3.8
Interprestasi Koefisien Korelasi Nilai r ................................................81
Tabel 3.9
Interprestasi Koefisien Korelasi Nilai r ................................................86
Tabel 4.1
Perkembangan Suku Bunga Deposito di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ......................................................................................................91
Tabel 4.2
Perkembangan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ..........................................................................................93
Tabel 4.3
Perkembangan Nilai Kurs di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ..............95
Tabel 4.4
Perkembagan Tingkat Inflasi Periode 2003 – 2012 .............................97
Tabel 4.5
Perkembangan Jumlah Uang Beredar Periode 2003 – 2012 ...............98
Tabel 4.6
Perkembagan Transaksi Obligasi Korporasi di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ..........................................................................................100
Tabel 4.7
Hasil Uji Autokorelasi ..........................................................................104
Tabel 4.8
Hasil Uji Multikoliniearitas ..................................................................105
Tabel 4.9
Koefisien Korelasi Berganda dan Koefisien Determinasi Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito, Gross Domestic Product, Nilai
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Kurs, Tingkat Inflasi, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar dengan Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ........106 Tabel 4.10
Analisis Regresi Berganda Antara Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito, Gross Domestic Product, Nilai Kurs, Tingkat Inflasi, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar dengan Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 .............................................................................107
Tabel 4.11
Uji Signifikansi Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito, Gross Domestic Product, Nilai Kurs, Tingkat Inflasi, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ..........................................................................................110
Tabel 4.12
Koefisien Korelasi dan Koefisien Determinasi Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ...........112
Tabel 4.13
Uji Regresi Linier Sederhana Antara Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito dengan Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ...................................................113
Tabel 4.14
Analisis Pengujian Hipotesis (Uji t) Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ..................................115
Tabel 4.15
Koefisien Korelasi dan Koefisien Determinasi Pengaruh Gross Domestic Product terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ..................117
Tabel 4.16
Uji Regresi Linier Sederhana Antara Gross Domestic Product dengan Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ...................................................118
Tabel 4.17
Analisis Pengujian Hipotesis (Uji t) Pengaruh Gross Domestic Product terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ...................................119
Tabel 4.18
Koefisien Korelasi dan Koefisien Determinasi Pengaruh Nilai Kurs terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ................................................121
Tabel 4.19
Uji Regresi Linier Sederhana Antara Nilai Kurs dengan Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ...................................................................................122
Tabel 4.20
Analisis Pengujian Hipotesis (Uji t) Pengaruh Nilai Kurs terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ...............................................................123
Tabel 4.21
Koefisien Korelasi dan Koefisien Determinasi Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi terhadap Permintaan Obligasi ..................................................125
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Tabel 4.22
Uji Regresi Linier Sederhana Antara Tingkat Inflasi dengan Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ...............................................................126
Tabel 4.23
Analisis Pengujian Hipotesis (Uji t) Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ................................................127
Tabel 4.24
Koefisien Korelasi dan Koefisien Determinasi Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ........................129
Tabel 4.25
Uji Regresi Linier Sederhana Antara Jumlah Uang Beredar dengan Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ...............................................................130
Tabel 4.26
Analisis Pengujian Hipotesis (Uji t) Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta ................................................131
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DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 1.1
Kerangka Pemikiran ...........................................................................14
Gambar 1.2
Paradigma Penelitian ..........................................................................15
Gambar 2.1
Jumlah Penduduk Optimal .................................................................44
Gambar 2.2
Kurva Inflasi Penawaran ....................................................................52
Gambar 2.3
Kurva Inflasi Permintaan ....................................................................53
Gambar 3.1
Struktur Pasar Modal Indonesia .........................................................62
Gambar 3.2
Daerah Penerimaan dan Penolakan H0 (uji F) ....................................84
Gambar 3.3
Daerah Penerimaan dan Penolakan H0 (Uji t) ....................................89
Gambar 4.1
Hasil Pengujian Uji Normalitas .........................................................103
Gambar 4.2
Pengaruh Tingkat Suku
Bunga Deposito,
Gross Domestic
Product, Nilai Kurs, Tingkat Inflasi, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ....................................................................................................111 Gambar 4.3
Kriteria (Uji t) Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia ........................................116
Gambar 4.4
Kriteria (Uji t) Pengaruh Gross Domestic Product terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta....................... ......................................120
Gambar 4.5
Kriteria (Uji t) Pengaruh Nilai Kurs (IDR/USD) terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta....................... ......................................124
Gambar 4.6
Kriteria (Uji t) Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta .................................................................................128
Gambar 4.7
Kriteria (Uji t) Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Permintaan Obligasi Swasta....................... ......................................132
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DAFTAR GRAFIK
Grafik 4.1
Perkembangan Suku Bunga Deposito di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ......................................................................................................92
Grafik 4.2
Perkembangan Gross Domestic Product di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ......................................................................................................94
Grafik 4.3
Perkembangan Nilai Kurs di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ..............96
Grafik 4.4
Perkembagan Tingkat Inflasi Periode 2003 – 2012 .............................98
Grafik 4.5
Perkembangan Jumlah Uang Beredar Periode 2003 – 2012 ...............99
Grafik 4.6
Perkembagan Obligasi Swasta di Indonesia Periode 2003 – 2012 ......101
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DAFTAR LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1
Laporan Kondisi Ekonomi Indonesia 2003 – 2012
Lampiran 2
Perhitungan SPSS 17.0 for windows metode enter
Lampiran 3
Tabel Distribusi F
Lampiran 4
Tabel Distribusi t
Lampiran 5
Kartu Bimbingan
Lampiran 6
Riwayat Hidup
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