DAFTAR ISI Halaman
ABSTRAK ...................................................................................................... i KATA PENGANTAR.................................................................................... iii UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH ......................................................................... iv DAFTAR ISI .................................................................................................. vi DAFTAR TABEL .......................................................................................... viii DAFTAR GAMBAR...................................................................................... ix DAFTAR LAMPIRAN .................................................................................. x BAB I
PENDAHULUAN
1.1 Latar Belakang Penelitian ............................................................................... 1.2 Rumusan Masalah ............................................................................................ 1.3 Tujuan Penelitian ............................................................................................. 1.7 Kegunaan Penelitian ........................................................................................
1 16 18 18
BAB II KAJIAN PUSTAKA, KERANGKA PEMIKIRAN, DAN HIPOTESIS 2.1 Saham ..... ........................................................................................................... 2.1.1 Pengertian Saham ...................................................................................... 2.1.2 Jenis-Jenis Saham ..................................................................................... 2.1.3 Nilai Saham ............................................................................................... 2.2 Strategi Portofolio Saham ..... .......................................................................... 2.2.1 Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) ................................................... 2.2.2 Menentukan Harga Saham ........................................................................ 2.2.3 Manfaat Investasi Pada Saham .................................................................. 2.2.4 Risiko Investasi Pada Saham .................................................................... 2.2.5 Rasio-Rasio Saham ................................................................................... 2.3 Pembelian Kembali Saham (Stock Buy Back) ..... .......................................... 2.3.1 Untuk Menjaga Kewajaran Harga Saham ................................................. 2.3.2 Sinyal Psikologi ke Pasar .......................................................................... 2.3.3 Untuk Dijual Kembali ............................................................................... 2.3.4 Untuk Dibagikan Kepada Karyawan ........................................................ 2.3.5 Untuk Menghindari Diri dari Akuisisi Perusahaan Lain ........................... 2.3.6 Pertimbangan Pajak ................................................................................... 2.3.7 Faktor Fleksibilitas Bagi Emiten ............................................................... 2.3.8 Sebagai Upaya Penghematan Dividen ....................................................... 2.4 Stock Buy Back Dimata Investor ..................................................................... 2.5 Inflasi ................................................................................................. ........... ................................................................................................ 2.5.1 Inflasi Tarikan Permintaan ........................................................................ 2.5.2 Inflasi Desakan Biaya ...............................................................................
20 20 21 24 31 32 35 37 39 39 40 40 41 42 42 42 43 43 43 44
44 47 47
2.5.3 Inflasi Diimpor .......................................................................................... 2.6 Suku Bunga ................................................................................................. . .......................................................................................................... 2.7 Kinerja Keuangan (Performansi) .............................................................. ............................................. 2.7.1 Rasio Likuiditas ........................................................................................ 2.7.2 Rasio Profitabilitas .................................................................................... 2.7.3 Rasio Struktur Modal ................................................................................ 2.7.4 Earning Per Share (EPS) ..................................................................... ...................................... 2.8 Kerangka Pemikiran ................................................................................... ........................ 2.9 Hipotesis ........................................................................................ ....................
47
48 50 50 51 52 53 54 58
BAB III OBJEK DAN METODE PENELITIAN 3.1 Objek Penelitian ................................................................... ............................ 3.2 Metode Penelitian ................................................................... .......................... 3.2.1 Metode Yang Digunakan .......................................................................... 3.2.2 Instrumen Penelitian (Alat Pengumpul Data) ............................................ 3.2.3 Deskripsi Operasional Variabel ................................................................ 3.2.4 Jenis Dan Sumber Data ............................................................................. 3.2.5 Teknik Pengumpulan Data ......................................................................... 3.2.6 Teknik Analisis Data .................................................................................
61 61 61 62 63 65 65 66
BAB IV HASIL ANALISIS DAN PEMBAHASAN 4.1 Analisis Regresi Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan Berpengaruh Terhadap Harga Saham PT. Telkom ........... .................................................................................................................. 69 4.1.1 Uji Asumsi Klasik ..................................................................................... 69 4.1.2 Pengujian Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, Dan Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan Menggunakan Persamaan Regresi Linier Berganda .............. 89 4.1.3 Pengujian Hipotesis Inflasi, Suku Bunga, Dan Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan Berpengaruh Positif Secara Simultan Terhadap Harga Saham PT. Telkom .................................................................................... 90 4.1.4 Pengujian Hipotesis Inflasi, Suku Bunga, Dan Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan Berpengaruh Positif Secara Parsial Terhadap Harga Saham PT Telkom ..................................................................................... 91 4.1.5 Analisis Koefisien Determinasi ................................................................. 94 4.1.6 Hasil Penelitian ......................................................................................... 96 4.1.7 Pembahasan Hasil Penelitian .................................................................... 103 BAB V KESIMPULAN DAN REKOMENDASI
5.1 Kesimpulan................................................................... ..................................... 110 5.2 Rekomendasi...................................................................................................... 111 DAFTAR PUSTAKA ............................................................................................. 112 LAMPIRAN-LAMPIRAN .................................................................................... 114 RIWAYAT HIDUP ................................................................................................ 131
DAFTAR TABEL Halaman Tabel 1.1 Matriks Hubungan Faktor Makro Ekonomi dan Kinerja Keuangan Terhadap Profitabilitas Perusahaan pada Saham ..... ................ Tabel 1.2 Neraca Konsolidasi ................................................................................... Tabel 1.3 Laporan Laba Rugi Konsolidasi .............................................................. Tabel 1.4 Rasio Keuangan dan Operasi Konsolidasi ............................................... Tabel 1.5 Ikhtisar Operasi ..... ................................................................................... Tabel 2.1 Setoran Dividen PT Telkom ..... ............................................................... Tabel 2.2 Price Earning Ratio (PER) dan EPS......................................................... Tabel 3.1 Operasional Variabel ................................................................................ Tabel 3.2 Interpretasi Koefisien Korelasi Nilai r ...................................................... Tabel 4.1 Test of Normality ...................................................................................... Tabel 4.2 Model Summary ....................................................................................... Tabel 4.3 Coefficients .............................................................................................. Tabel 4.4 Model Summary ..... .................................................................................. Tabel 4.5 Coefficients ............................................................................................... Tabel 4.6 Model Summary ....................................................................................... Tabel 4.7 Coefficients ............................................................................................... Tabel 4.8 Model Summary ....................................................................................... Tabel 4.9 Correlations ............................................................................................... Tabel 4.10 Correlations ............................................................................................. Tabel 4.11 Correlations ............................................................................................. Tabel 4.12 Correlations ............................................................................................. Tabel 4.13 Correlations ............................................................................................. Tabel 4.14 Correlations............................................................................. ........... ................................................................................................ Tabel 4.15 Coefficients ............................................................................................. Tabel 4.16 Coefficients ............................................................................................. Tabel 4.17 Anova ..................................................................................................... Tabel 4.18 Coefficients............................................................................. .......... ................................................................................................. Tabel 4.19 Model Summary ..................................................................................... Tabel 4.20 Koefisien Beta x Zero Order ...................................................................
5 13 14 14 15 30 37 64 67 71 72 74 75 76 77 78 78 80 81 82 84 85
86 88 89 91
91 94 95
DAFTAR GAMBAR Halaman Gambar 1.1 Pergerakan Saham Telkom Tahun 2003-2008 ..... ................................ Gambar 1.2 Pergerakan Inflasi BI Tahun 2003-2008 ............................................... Gambar 1.3 Tingkat Suku Suku Bunga Acuan BI Rate 2003-2008 ......................... Gambar 1.4 Laba Bersih Telkom Posisi tahun 2003-2008 ...................................... Gambar 1.5 Laba Bersih Per Saham posisi Tahun 2003-2008 ..... ........................... Gambar 2.1 Kerangka Pemikiran Penelitian ............................................................ Gambar 3.1 Disain Penelitian .................................................................................. Gambar 4.1 Uji Autokorelasi ................................................................................... Gambar 4.2 Uji Autokorelasi ................................................................................... Gambar 4.3 Uji Autokorelasi ................................................................................... Gambar 4.4 Uji Autokorelasi ................................................................................... Gambar 4.5 Uji Heteroskedastisitas ......................................................................... Gambar 4.6 Uji Heteroskedastisitas ......................................................................... Gambar 4.7 Uji Heteroskedastisitas ......................................................................... Gambar 4.8 Uji Heteroskedastisitas ......................................................................... Gambar 4.9 Uji Heteroskedastisitas ......................................................................... Gambar 4.10 Uji Heteroskedastisitas ....................................................................... Gambar 4.11 Uji Parsial t ......................................................................................... Gambar 4.12 Uji Parsial t ......................................................................................... Gambar 4.13 Uji Parsial t .........................................................................................
3 8 10 12 13 58 66 73 76 77 79 81 82 83 85 86 87 92 93 94
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN Halaman Lampiran 1 Critical Values for the F distribution..... ................................................ Lampiran 2 Critical Values for the t distribution.... .................................................. Lampiran 3 Critical Values for the Durbin-Watson Statistic.... ................................ Lampiran 4 Output SPSS-Multiple Linear Regression .... ........................................ Lampiran 5 Uji Linear Kolmogorov-Smirnov..... ..................................................... Lampiran 6 Riwayat Hidup.... ...................................................................................
114 119 124 126 127 131
