, , , , --~-------------.----------------------------------------------------~--
!,
WERNER R. MURHADI
.
..!,
, -~------------------------------------------------------------------~--
ANALISIS LAPORAN
PROYEKSI DAN VALUASI SAHAM
-, -- ----.....-.- .... . ... ................
~"-~':.:.
~
--!::::--
.........
~::..--
.::::."'.::::-- :: ::
,'::'.::..,
~'"-
::::~--
---
'"---
- :
Buku Anillllsls Lill porilln K4I!ua nga n. ProY4l!k51 dilln Valuul Sa h41 m ini disus un dd lam dua bagian, bagian perlama buku ini pembahasan male ri menekankan pada peng9 unaan laporan ke ua ngan berbasis akunlansl (accounting based) unluk ke mudian dilaku ka n a nalisis. Sedangkan pada bagian kedua, dengan me nggu nakan laporan ke uangan ya ng lela h ada, maka (tapat dilakukan proyek$i dan valuasi lerhada p sualU peru$.l h.la n hingga da p_u diperoleh nilal waja r saham perusahaa n. Kelebihan ma teri dalam buku 101 tidak hanya menyajikan analisis laporan keuangan namun juga Pfoyeksi .1la\ laporan keuangan serta metakukan penilaian terhadap nilai wajar SWIU SClham. Di dalam
buku ini juga dibcrika n contoh kasus nyata mengenai penilaian saham, yaitu perusahaan PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk atau yang lebih dikeoal sebagai Kode tOff di Bursa Efck Indonesia (ITMGJ. Diharapkan deng.Jn contoh kasus nyala ini, perrbaca dapat meng.lp1ikasikannya pada perusahaan lain. Buku inl dit ujukan ke pada para mahasiswa yang mengambil ko nscntrasi ke uangan, investasl. da n pasar modal. Sclaln itu buku inl juga da pat dimanfaatkan hilgi me re ka ya ng a kan bcrprofesl sebagal rlset ana lis d l perusahaa n sekUfilas da n bagi me rekil ya ng seda ng rT'IC ngilmbil program profesi keua ngan sepcrti CFA. Mililerl Yilino dlbahas dilila m buku Inl mencakup: Bab 1 Ba b 2 Billb 3 Bab 4 Bab 5 Ba b 6 Dillb 7 Dab 8 Dab 9 Da b 10 Billb 1 1 Dab 12
•
PI.'nga nla r Anallsis la pora n lapOfa n Posisl Keuangan laporan laba Rug i da n Laporan Perubaha n Ekuitas lapOl'an Arus Kas AMlisls I...lporan !<cuangan Analisis Makro Ekonoml An.1l1sis Industri Estlmasi Pertu mb uha n Perusa haa n Esllmasl Slaya Modal Pfoyeksi Laporan Keuangan Val uasl l: Free Cash Flow Model Valuasi II: Dividend Disco un t Model
Persembahan ...........................................................................
Tentang Penulis .......................................................................
Kata Pengantar ...................................................................................
Daftar lsi ............................................................................................
Bab 1
Pengantar Analisis Laporan Keuangan ............................
1.1 Pendahuluan ............................................................................ .
l.2. Laporan Keuangan sebagai Sistem ............................................ .
1.3 Pengguna Laporan Keuangan .................................................... .
1. Pemegang Saham, Investor, dan Analis Sekuritas .......... ..
2. Manajer.................................................................................. .
3. Karyawan .............................................................................. ..
4. Supplier dan Kreditur .......................................................... .
5. Pelanggan .................................................................... ...
6. Pemerintah .................................................................... .
1.4 Tahapan dalam Analisis Laporan Keuangan ......................... ..
1.5 Ringkasan ...................................................................................... .
1.6 Latihan Soal .................................................................................. .
Bab 2
Laporan Posisi Keuangan ............................................
2.1 Aset. ................................................................................................ .
1. Aset Lancar (Current Asset) ............................................ .
2. Aset Tetap (Fixed Asset) ....................................................... .
3. Aset Takberwujud (Intangible Asset) .................................. .
2.2 Liabilitas (Liabilities) .................................................................... .
1. Utang Dagang (Account Payable) ....................................... .
2. Gaji yang Masih Harus Dibayar (Wages Accrual) ............. .
3. Wesel Bayar (Note Payable) ................................................. ..
4. Utang Dividen (Dividend Payable) ....................................
x
Analisis Laporan Keuangan, Proyeksi dan Valuasi Saham
5.
2.3
2.4 2.5
Bab 3
Bab 4
Bab 5
Bagian Utang Jangka Panjang Jatuh Tempo pada Periode Sekarang (Current Portion ofLong Term Debt) ................................ . 6. Obligasi Jangka Panjang (Long Term Bonds) .................................... Ekuitas Pemegang Saham (Stockholders Equity) ...................................... 1. Saham Preferen (Preferred Stock) ....................................................... . 2. Saham Biasa (Common Stock) ............................................................. 3. Agio Saham (Paid in Capital) ............................................................. . 4. Saldo laba (Retained Earning) ........: .................................................. .. Ringkasan .................................................................................................... .. Latihan Soal ................................................................................................. .
26 26 26 26 26
5.3 5.4
Bab6
27
27 28 28
Laporan Laba Rugi dan Laporan Perubahan Ekuitas ................. . 3.1 Laporan Laba Rugi ...................................................................................... . 1. Pendapatan/Penjualan Bersih ............................................................. . 2. Harga Pokok Penjualan (Cost ofGoods Sold) .................................... 3. Beban Operasi (Operating Expense) .................................................. . 4. Pendapatan (Beban) Lainnya (Other Income (Expense» ................ . 5. Laba Neto (Net Income) ....................................................................... . 3.2 Laporan Perubahan Ekuitas ....................................................................... . 3.3 Ringkasan ..................................................................................................... . 3.4 Latihan Soal ................................................................................................ ..
33
Laporan Arus Kas ............................................................................ 4.1 Arus Kas dad Operasi ................................................................................ . 4.2 Arus Kas dari Investasi ............................................................................... . 4.3 Arus Kas dad Pendanaan ........................................................................... . 4.4 Menghitung Free Cash Flow (FCF) .......................................................... .. 1. Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) ................................................... .. 2. Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) ....................................................... . 4.5 Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) ..................................................................................................... . 4.6 Ringkasan ..................................................................................................... . 4.7 Latihan Soal ................................................................................................ ..
43
Anallsls Laporan Keuangan ............................................................ 5.1 Analisis Common Size .................................................................................. 5.2 Analisis Rasio ............................................................................................... . L Rasio Likuiditas (Liquidity Ratio) ...................................................... . 2. Rasio Pengelolaan Aset (Asset Management Ratio) .......................... 3. Rasio Pengelolaan Utang (Debt Management Ratio) ...................... ..
53
33 35 37 37 37 37 39 40 40
Bab7
45 47 47 48 48 49 49 50 50
54 56 57 58 61
Bab8
4. RasioP 5. Rasio ~ Ringkasan. Latihan So~
Analisis MakrCl 6.1 PengenalaI1 6.2 Indikator I\ 1. Prodw 2. Inflasi, 3. Tingka 4. Nilai T 5. Harga 6. LindUl 7. Siklus 8. Faktor 6.3 Ringkasan 6.4 Latihan Sc
Analisis Indm 7.1 Analisis L 7.2 Analisis P 1. Keku, 2. Kekm 3. Keku. 4. Peng~ 5. Anca: 7.3 Analisis 1 7.4 Karekteri 7.5 Analisis I 7.6 Ringkasa 7.7 Latihan ~ Estimasi Per 8.1 Pertumb 8.2 Estimasi 8.3 Faktor F 1. Gn» 2. GrOl
..
'
Daftar lsi
5.3 5.4
Bab 6
Bab 7
Bab 8
4. Rasio Profitabilitas (Profitability Ratio) ............................................ . 5. Rasio Nilai Pasar (Market Value Ratio) ............................................. . Ringkasan ..................................................................................................... . Latihan Soal ..................................................................................................
xi
63
64
66
67
Analisis Makro Ekonomi ................................................................ 6.1 Pengenalan ........................... 1....................................................................... . 6.2 Indikator Makro Ekonomi .......................................................................... 1. Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) .......................................................... . 2. Inflasi ...................................................................................................... 3. Tingkat Suku Bunga .............................................................................. 4. Nilai Tukar ............................................................................................. 5. Harga Minyak dan Harga Komoditas Utama ................................... 6. Lindung Nilai (Hedging) ....................................................................... 7. Siklus Bisnis .......................................................................................... . 8. Faktor Lain-lain ..................................................................................... 6.3 Ringkasan ...................................................................................................... 6.4 Latihan Soal ..................................................................................................
69
Analisis Industri ............................................................................... 7.1 Analisis Lingkungan Eksternal dan Internal (TOWS Analysis) ............. 7.2 Analisis Persaingan Industri ....................................................................... 1. Kekuatan persaingan dalam industri... ............................................. .. 2. Kekuatan Tawar-Menawar Pembeli ................................................... . 3. Kekuatan Tawar-Menawar Pemasok ................................................. . 4. Pengaruh Produk Substitusi .............................................................. . 5. Ancaman dari Pendatang Baru .......................................................... . 7.3 Analisis Product Life Cycle.......................................................................... . 7.4 Karekteristik Pasar ...................................................................................... . 7.5 Analisis Konsentrasi Industri .................................................................... . 7.6 Ringkasan .................................................................................................... . 7.7 Latihan Soal ..................................................................................................
79
Estimasi Pertumbuhan Perusahaan............................................... 8.1 Pertumbuhan Historis ................................................................................ . 8.2 Estimasi Pertumbuhan dari Analis ............................................................ 8.3 Faktor Fundamental dari Pertumbuhan .................................................. .
93
69
71
71
72
74
74
74
75
75
76
76
76
79
81
81
83
84
84
84
85
86
87
89
89
93
98
98
1. Growth in Equity Earnings .................................................................. . 98
2. Growth in Operating Income ............................................................... 101
.
....
xii
Analisis Laporan Keuangan, Proycksi dan Valuasi Saham
8.4 8.5
Bab 9
Ringkasan ...................................................................................................... 102
Latihan Soal.................................................................................................. 103
Estimasi Biaya Modal ...................................................................... 107
9.1 BiayaEkuitas(CostofEquity K) ............................................................ 107
1. Beta Pasar Historis ................................................................................ 108
2. Beta Fundamental ....................... v ........................................................ 110
3. Beta Akuntansi ...................................................................................... 112
9.2 Biaya Saham Preferen (Cost of Preferred Stock) ........................................ 113
9.3 Biaya Utang (Cost ofDebt K) ................................................................. 113
9.4 Estimasi Market Value ................................................................................ 114
9.5 9.6 9.7
1. Market value ofPreferred Stock............................................................ 2. Market Value ofDebt............................................................................. 3. Market Value ofEquity/Common Stock .............................................. Biaya Modal (Cost of Capital) ................................................ ..................... Ringkasan ...................................................................................................... Latihan Soal ..................................................................................................
115
115
115
116
116
116
Bab 10 Proyeksi Laporan Keuangan .......................................................... 119
10.1 Proyeksi Penjualan ....................................................................................... 123
1. Alternatif 1. Pertumbuhan Penjualan TotaL.................................... 123
2. Alternatif 2. Pertumbuhan Berdasarkan Segmen
Penjualan ITMG .................................................................................... 124
Penganta Keuanga'
Tujuan Pembelajaran
Setelah membaca bagian i
L Mendiskusikan tujua
2. Menjelaskan pentin~ 3. Mengidentifikasi pel 4. Memahami laporan 5. Menjelaskan manfaa 6. Mendeskripsikan tal
Bab 11 Valuasi I: Free Cash Flow Model .................................................... 129
Bab 12 Valuasi II: Dividend Discount Model .............................................. 131
12.1 Model Diskonto Dividen ............................................................................. 131
12.2 Model Pertumbuhan Stabil dari Gordon .................................................. 132
12.3 Model Diskonto Dividen: Dua Tahap ....................................................... 133
12.4 Ringkasan ...................................................................................................... 135
12.5 Latihan Soal.................................................................................................. 136
Lampiran ....................................................................................................... L1
Daftar Pustaka .................... ........... ............ .......... .................... .... ....... ........... 01
Indeks ............................................................................................................. 11
1.1 PENDAHULUA
Laporan keuangan merup mengenai kondisi keuanl laporan keuangan suatu melihat kondisi kesehatan adalah menyediakan in! dalam posisi keuangan s~ ekonomi. Sedangkan per keputusan ekonomi den reIevan penting. Laporankeuangan yang sedang melakukan 1 sedang melakukan perja tepat dan tidak tersesat
