Working Paper DAMPAK UPAH TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS DAN INFLASI: STUDI SEKTORAL DAN REGIONAL

Working Paper DAMPAK UPAH TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS DAN INFLASI: STUDI SEKTORAL DAN REGIONAL

Abstract In this paper we observe three key issues. First, we measure the effectiveness of regional minimum wage in affecting actual wage determination, productivity, and inflation level in Indonesia. Furthermore, we expand our analysis on significant factors affecting wage determination, productivity, and inflation level as our second objective. Finally, we identify the existence of a threshold level of minimum wage in relation to inflation level. For the abovementioned purposes, we apply spatial lag model (SAR) and spatial error model (SEM) to address the first and the second issue to provincial level data of Indonesia during of 2000-2006. Hence, following Hansen (1999) and Caner and Hansen (2004), we apply dynamic panel threshold model to extract the threshold level, given endogeneity issue. Correspondingly, it is evident that there is a nonlinear relationship between wage and inflation in Indonesia and we suggest that any minimum wage increase above 12.7 % will significantly accelerate inflation rate and under which an insignificant relationship exist. Furthermore, we show that actual wage determination in manufacturing and trade sector rely mainly on minimum wage, inflation, and GDP growth while the increase of workers’ productivity is a product of education and training. Therefore, we suggest that an integrated social policy is a key to boost workers’ welfare. Keywords: minimum wages rate, inflation rate,spatial lag model (SAR), spatial error model (SEM), dynamic panel threshold model. JEL CLASSIFICATION: E 24, E 31

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3

NO.

PROPINSI

1 D.I. Aceh 2 Sumatera Utara 3 Sumatera Barat 4 Riau 5 Kepulauan Riau 6 Jambi 7 Sumatera Selatan 8 Bangka Belitung 9 Bengkulu 10 Lampung 11 Jawa Barat 14 DKI Jakarta 15 Banten 12 Jawa Tengah 16 D.I. Yogyakarta 13 Jawa Timur 17 Bali 23 N T B 22 N T T 18 Kalimantan Barat 21 Kalimantan Selatan 19 Kalimantan Tengah 20 Kalimantan Timur 24 Maluku 25 Maluku Utara 26 Gorontalo 27 Sulawesi Utara 30 Sulawesi Tenggara 29 Sulawesi Tengah 28 Sulawesi Selatan 31 Sulawesi Barat 32 Irian Jaya 33 Irian Jaya Barat UMP Rata-rata Growth UMP Rata-rata biasa Growth UMP Rata-rata tertimbang Inflasi

2011 U Growth M 3.85 7.31 12.23 10.24 5.41 14.22 13.00 12.53 4.49 11.40 9.01 15.38 4.68 2.27 8.36 11.90 7.32 6.65 6.25 8.30 9.91 15.01 8.18 7.14 5.00 7.39 5.00 8.14 6.43 10.00 6.55 6.57 16.53 8.69 8.80 10.50 3.79

2012

2013

Growth

Growth

3.70 15.89 9.00 10.54 4.10 11.24 14.00 8.40 14.11 14.04 44.53 18.54 4.20 23.86 10.48 32.49 8.71 5.26 14.71 12.15 8.79 17.00 8.58 8.33 8.00 9.84 19.05 11.00 6.95 9.09 12.03

10.71 8.75 17.39 13.09 34.49 13.69 30.00 13.96 29.03 27.00 43.87 9.00 10.76 12.23 24.03 3.59 17.78 9.18 17.00 48.85

9.00 20.00 7.89

2.84 12.54 11.93 19.79 4.50

19.75 21.66 29.68 4.50

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5

6

7

π

ε

8

9

y  Wy  X    ........................................................................................ (1) y

 X





10

y  X    ................................................................................................. (2)

  W    ................................................................................................ (3)



W



μ

11

Wij.t  M .Wij , t  W min it  Yit  Pit  ij , t

(11)

ρ

12

Proij , t  M .Proij , t  Wit  SCit  TRit  ij , t

(12)

Pit  M .Pit  Wit  Loanit  Yit  i , t (13)

ρ

Produktivitasi,t = α + βWSi,t + δPSi,t + εi,t

(14)

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Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Semua Sektor SAR SEM Variable FE RE FE RE Spatial Autocorrelation Inflasi Upah Minimum Provinsi PDRB R-Squared dummy Regional Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error

0.0045 (2.96) 0.2270 (16.52) 0.5110 (76.39) 0.2010 (19.95) 0.9995

*** *** *** ***

0.0530 (3.52) 0.2270 (16.59) 0.5090 (76.41) 0.1890 (19.59) 0.9994 V 338 19.68 (0.028)

0.8790 (37.90) 0.2440 (32.73) 0.5240 (139.45) 0.2270 (33.77) 0.9995

0.8690 (33.51) 0.2450 (33.28) 0.5200 (139.28) 0.2210 (33.59) 0.9998

7.64 1.15

Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung ***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%

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Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Pertanian SAR SEM Variable FE RE FE RE Spatial Autocorrelation Inflasi (CPI) Upah Minimum Provinsi PDRB R-Squared Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error

0.0290 (4.88) 0.3120 (61.51) 0.3960 (171.46) 0.2490 (67.65) 0.9999

0.0300 (5.08) 0.3120 (62.20) 0.3960 (173.39) 0.2480 (68.35) 0.9999

*** *** *** ***

0.4750 (5.24) 0.3290 (67.88) 0.3920 (201.86) 0.2710 (73.23) 0.9999

0.8000 (20.73) 0.3330 (100.03) 0.3930 (219.5) 0.2710 (87.57) 0.9999

338 0.328 1.00 6.0250 0.0029


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Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Industri SAR SEM Variable FE RE FE RE Spatial Autocorrelation Inflasi (CPI) Upah Minimum Provinsi PDRB R-Squared dummy Regional Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error

0.0200 (1.86) 0.1100 (10.36) 0.7100 (127.82) 0.1500 (18.26) 0.9997

*** *** *** ***

0.0400 0.8300 (3.43) (25.45) 0.0700 0.1100 (6.98) (13.89) 0.7100 0.7200 (119.69) (219.27) 0.1600 0.1600 (19.67) (25.69) 0.9996 0.9999 V 338 83.52 (0.000)

0.8700 (33.90) 0.1100 (19.29) 0.7200 (236.76) 0.1600 (29.32) 0.9999

8.00 2.05


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Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Perdagangan SAR SEM Variable FE RE FE RE Spatial Autocorrelation Inflasi Upah Minimum Provinsi PDRB R-Squared dummy Regional dummy Waktu Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error

0.0390 (5.28) 0.2100 (29.54) 0.5900 (162.63) 0.1200 (23.88) 0.9999

*** *** *** ***

0.0400 0.7600 (5.65) (16.47) 0.2100 0.2200 (29.61) (39.31) 0.5900 0.5900 (162.45) (257.91) 0.1200 0.1700 (23.59) (40.05) 0.9998 0.9999 V V 338 40.64 (0.000)

0.8800 (37.40) 0.2300 (53.54) 0.5900 (277.54) 0.1700 (45.87) 0.9999

6.53 0.29


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Dampak UMP Terhadap Produktivitas Pekerja SAR Variable Spatial Autocorrelation Schooling Training Opennes UMP R-Squared Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error

FE

RE

FE

0.520 (6.50) 0.007 (0.87) 0.060 (4.04) 0.030 (3.01) 0.0005 (0.41) 0.992

0.490 (5.82) 0.006 (0.835) 0.070 (4.21) 0.030 (3.17) 0.0008 (0.55) 0.991

0.560 (7.26) 0.004 (0.51) 0.140 (6.71) 0.030 (3.28) 0.0007 (0.48) 0.991 338 4.48 (0.87)

SEM RE 0.577 (6.76) 0.005 (2.08) 0.138 (6.62) 0.034 (3.57) 0.0008 (0.37) 0.988

*** ** *** ***

4.98 5.69


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Upah & Produktifitas: Peran Pangsa Pendapatan Pekerja vs Non Pekerja Variable Labour Income Share Non Labour Income Share Constant R-Squared Hausman Test Chi Squared Prob > Chi Squared

FE 0.0870 (1.977) 25.7700 (1.622) 4.5500 (0.16) 0.0080

RE **

0.0700 (1.707) 15.8600 (1.059) 4.6000 (0.15) 0.0200 4.820

*

0.080


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Dampak UMP Terhadap Inflasi SAR Variable Spatial Autocorrelation Kredit Opennes UMP Nilai Tukar R-Squared dummy Regional Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error

FE 0.71 (20.42) 0.058 (5.67) -0.018 (-3.54) 0.096 (5.56) 0.04 (1.42) 0.982

*** *** *** *** *

SEM RE

FE

RE

0.73 (23.78) 0.02 (3.19) -0.02 (-4.23) 0.19 (7.13) 0.03 (0.74) 0.990 V 338 35.96 (0.00)

0.96 (137.51) 0.06 (4.22) -0.02 (-3.85) 0.28 (7.44) 0.69 (0.89) 0.746

1.00 (9378.01) 0.04 (3.04) -0.02 (-4.33) 0.24 (6.73) 0.11 (1.09) 0.991

278.26 2.34


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Inflasi (%)

UMP

(%)

28

α

29

β β

Threshold UMP Terhadap Inflasi Nilai threshold UMP terhadap inflasi

α

12.73%

Pengaruh UMP terhadap inflasi 0.0086

β1

(0.0072)

β2

(11.36)

0.031

***

Pengaruh variabel lainnya terhadap inflasi Inflasi inertia Kredit Nilai Tukar Konstanta R-Squared Observasi

0.086 (7.714) 0.057 (3.471) 0.124 (5.612) 1.215 (1.017)

*** *** ***

0.882 312


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Working Paper DAMPAK UPAH TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS DAN INFLASI: STUDI SEKTORAL DAN REGIONAL

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