Technical Analysis: Stock
Technical Analysis • Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing the statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. • Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.
Volume • The number of shares or contracts traded in a security or an entire market during a given period of time. • It is simply the amount of shares that trade hands from sellers to buyers as a measure of activity. • If a buyer of a stock purchases 100 shares from a seller, then the volume for that period increases by 100 shares based on that transaction.
Intrinsic value • The actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business,. • This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. • For call options, this is the difference between the underlying stock's price and the strike price. For put options, it is the difference between the strike price and the underlying stock's price. In the case of both puts and calls, if the respective difference value is negative, the intrinsic value is given as zero. • For example, value investors that follow fundamental analysis look at both qualitative (business model, governance, target market factors etc.) and quantitative (ratios, financial statement analysis, etc.) aspects of a business to see if the business is currently out of favor with the market and is really worth much more than its current valuation.
Assumption of technical analysis • The field of technical analysis is based on three assumptions: 1. The Market Discounts Everything • A major criticism of technical analysis is that it only considers price movement, ignoring the fundamental factors of the company. • Technical analysis assumes that, at any given time, a stock's price reflects everything that has or could affect the company - including fundamental factors.
2. Price Moves in Trends • In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trends. • This means that after a trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as the trend than to be against it. Most technical trading strategies are based on this assumption. 3. History Tends To Repeat Itself • Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price movement. • The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market psychology; in other words, market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time. • Technical analysis uses chart patterns to analyze market movements and understand trends. Although many of these charts have been used for more than 100 years, they are still believed to be relevant because they illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves.
Candle Stick USING CANDLE STICK TO ANALYZE STOCK MOVEMENT
Candle Stick • Grafik lilin atau dalam istilah asing dikenal dengan candlestick chart merupakan grafik yang paling banyak digunakan pada saat ini untuk mempresentasikan pergerakan nilai saham. • Candlestick umumnya digunakan untuk trading jangka pendek. Kelebihan candlestick ini adalah mampu menampilkan psikologi pasar. • Tidak seperti grafik garis yang hanya memperlihatkan satu nilai saja, candlestick dapat memperlihatkan empat nilai sekaligus, yaitu opening price (harga pembukaan), closing price (harga penutupan), highest price (harga tertinggi) dan lowest price (harga terendah) dalam suatu periode waktu tertentu.
• Gambar candlestick: digunakan warna hijau (putih), merah (biru)
• Contoh:
Moving Average SMOOTHING METHOD: SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE, WEIGHTED MOVING AVEERAGE, EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE
Moving Average • Moving Average (selanjutnya disebut MA), adalah sebuah metode sederhana yang sangat penting dalam analisis teknikal. • Dikatakan sederhana, karena MA pada dasarnya hanya pengembangan dari metode rata-rata yang sudah dikenal, namun metode ini sangat penting dan aplikasinya sangatlah luas. Beberapa variasi MA yang sering digunakan antara lain Simple Moving Average (MA/SMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), dan Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Simple Moving Average (SMA) • SMA dibentuk oleh nilai rata-rata dari n periode terakhir. • Rumus dari SMA orde-n padawaktu t adalah sebagai berikut:
MA t;n
X t X t 1 ... X t ( n 1) n
n = panjang periode Xt = harga penutupan periode ke-t
Simple Moving Average (SMA) • Contoh: No
Date
Closing
SMA-10
1
11/7/2007
110.93
2
11/8/2007
105.98
3
11/9/2007
100.24
4
11/12/2007
101.209
5
12/13/2007
105.27
6
12/14/2007
103
7
12/15/2007
103.65
8
12/16/2001
104.62
9
12/19/2007
102.2
10
12/20/2007
103.46
104.0559
11
12/21/2007
102.05
103.1679
12
12/23/2007
103.9
102.9599
13
12/26/2007
101.78
103.1139
110.93 105.98 ... 103.46 10 104.0559
MA10;10
MA11;10
105.98 100.24 ... 102.05 10 103.1679
Weighted Moving Average (WMA) • Pembobotan nilai pada WMA tergantung dari period yang kita tentukan, semakin besar period maka semakin pesar pembobotan nilai perhitungannya. WMA bisa dihitung menggunakan rumus berikut
WMA t;n
nX t n 1 X t 1 ...1X t ( n 1) n (n 1) ... 1
Weighted Moving Average (WMA) No
Date
Closing
WMA-10
1
11/7/2007 110.93
2
11/8/2007 105.98
3
11/9/2007 100.24
4
11/12/2007 101.209
5
12/13/2007 105.27
6
12/14/2007 103
7
12/15/2007 103.65
8
12/16/2001 104.62
9
12/19/2007 102.2
10
12/20/2007 103.46
103.4492
11
12/21/2007 102.05
103.08449
12
12/23/2007 103.9
103.2176
13
12/26/2007 101.78
103.00307
WMA10;10
110.93 2*105.98 ... 10*103.46 104.0559 10
• Dari 2 jenis moving average di atas mana yang paling akurat untuk digunakan dalam memprediksi trend atau harga di masa mendatang ? • Jawabannya tergantung dari pengguna. EMA atau WMA lebih cepat memberikan signal perubahan trend, sehingga cocok untuk digunakan dalam perdagangan jangka pendek. Untuk pedagang jangka panjang, anda bias menggunakan SMA untuk mengurangi false signal.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) • Pemberian bobot pada EMA sama seperti juga pada WMA, melibatkan periode. • Rumus EMA: EMA t;n
2 X t EMA prev EMA prev n 1
• Dengan nilai awal EMA diambildarinilai MA sederhana.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) No
Date
Closing
SMA-10
1
11/7/2007
110.93
2
11/8/2007
105.98
3
11/9/2007
100.24
4
11/12/2007
101.209
5
12/13/2007
105.27
6
12/14/2007
103
7
12/15/2007
103.65
8
12/16/2001
104.62
9
12/19/2007
102.2
10
12/20/2007
103.46
104.0559
11
12/21/2007
102.05
103.1679
12
12/23/2007
103.9
102.9599
13
12/26/2007
101.78
103.1139
EMA-10
103.9476 102.9646 103.1308 102.8714
Analisis Menggunakan MA • MA digunakan untuk memprediksi tren harga saham. • Agar dalam memprediksikan trend harga lebih akurat, biasanya investor menggunakan kombinasi dua MA priode yang berbeda, yaitu periode pendek dan panjang. Berikut ini ilustrasi penggunaan Moving Average periode periode pendek (garis warna biru, MA 5) dan panjang (garis warna magenta, menggunakan MA 50).
Keterangan dan Keputusan: • 1 = MA periode pendek memotong MA periode panjang dari bawah, perubahan trend menuju kondisi bullish/trend naik. • 2 = MA periode pendek memotong MA periode panjang dari atas, perubahan trend menuju kondisi bearish/trend menurun. • 3 = MA dengan periode pendek berada di atas MA berperiode panjang, kondisi bullish/trend naik. • 4 = MA dengan periode pendek berada di bawah MA berperiode panjang, kondisi bearish/trend menurun
Reference • http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/ techanalysis1.asp
