Targets and stakeholder participation: Comments and new elements J. Oude Lohuis

Targets and stakeholder participation: Comments and new elements J. Oude Lohuis Milieu en Natuur

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Netherlands Environmental Assesment Agency

Targets, participation and instrumentation

• Role of Long term targets in policy process • Comments on stakeholder participation • Experiences with instrumentation: taxes and emission trading system

R Netherlands Environmental Assesment Agency/RIVM

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Long term target setting: comments

• Excellent overview of “Why Long term goals” (partly cooperation with RIVM) • Importance of identifying different perpectives (climate system, uncertainties, sustainability) • Improved view on emission reduction path ways • Sophisticated modes of participation in LT agreements


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Long term target setting: comments • Participation of the USA is a precondition • Burden sharing approach is important: equity in the equation, but….. – Tryptych approach is top down, no room for relative targets in the process

• Bottom up approaches open up space for agreements on technology development – …..but are not a complete substitute for emission targets


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Climate activity varies widely in US states


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Dialogue-approach: comments • Potential effects: – Mobilise industry and other sectors in society towards positive attitude for climate action (open discussion, awareness, policy support) – New propositions and combinations – Decrease distance between Ministry Environment and Economic affairs

• Warning: – Input and outcome from sectoral representatives must be taken serious – Actions that run ahead of policy: not effective


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Dialogue-approach: option for Japan? • Energy technology, economic position, energy efficiency: comparable position Japan and NL • Level of interaction policy-industry-society: maybe suitable • Cultural setting?: to be discussed


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Role of targets in policy making

• Long term targets: may very well be ambitious – Reflecting climate risk to be averted – Guidance for longer period of time

• Near term targets: realistic and attainable – Allocation plans for emissions – 2008-2012 targets Kyoto


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Climate targets in the Netherlands

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(1990) CO2 emissions in 2000 down by 3-5%

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Realisation 2000: up with 7 to 8 %

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(1991) GG emissions transportsector in 2010 down by 0%

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Realisation in 2000: increase by >10 %

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1994: energy efficiency improvement 2% per year

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rate has slowed down to 1% per year


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Current targets

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Kyoto targets for 2012

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Target probably be met, 50% bij CDM and JI

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National Allocation plans for 2007 (Industry and Energy)

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Ceiling based on baseline-scenario with small cut

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Discussion on 2020 target (-30%)

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Joint starting point EU is leading

• Short term realistic targets have support industry Netherlands Environmental Assesment Agency/RIVM

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Taxes and emission trading • Long term targets leads to short term action: market is influenced by the government • Debate: taxes or emission ceilings • Facts on taxes: – 1992 first proposal harmonised energy tax in EU (for environmental purposes) – 1991: first proposal Dutch regulatory E-tex small users – EU-tax: still not implemented; Dutch proposal: 5 times increased after 1996 and now about 30-40% of the energy price

• Facts on EU emission trading: – First official proposal 2002, implemented and working 1/1/2005


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Suggestions for discussion

• Bottom up approaches for Long term agreements • Cultural setting for participatory dialoque in Japan • Process is important: differences of opinion co-exist with consent • Make scenario’s in which values are part of the story lines


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Thank you for your attention!


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Verdeling kosten wereldwijd bij realiseren 550 ppmdoelstelling in 2025

Bron: RIVM-MNP, FAIR


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Bereiken van klimaatstabilisatie vereist inzet van vrijwel alle beschikbare reductie-opties


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Hydrogen??

40-100 Gt C

>>1000 Gt C 920Gt C

1000- 10000 Gt C

IEA, 2004

• Veel onderzoek, ontwikkeling; enkele proefprojecten •IEA: CO2-opslag is substantieel onderdeel oplossingsrichtingen source: IEA, 2004; Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001 •IPCC-special report CO2-opslag (binnenkort)


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Hoe staat Europa er voor? Emissietrend EU-landen t.o.v. 1990

Bron: EEA, RIVM-MNP


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En hoe zit het voor Nederland?

Bron: ECN, RIVM-MNP


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EU koopt naar verwachting substantieel aandeel reducties in buitenland

Bron: RIVM-MNP, FAIR


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Infrastructuur CDM en JI wereldwijd groeit

• COP-10 Buenos Aires: ook Zuid-Europese landen gaan investeren in m.n. CDM en JI (Italie 50%, Fr, Spanje) • Azie, Afrika en Z-Amerika bouwen aan infrastructuur voor “ontvangen” klimaatinvesteringen • EU-emissiehandelssysteem is belangrijke stap voor prijsvorming en vraagmarkt


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Post 2012: hoe verder na Kyoto?

• Langdurige inspanning nodig • betrokkenheid VS, en grote landen zoals China en India nodig: – kosten beperken – draagvlak – effectiviteit

• Meekoppeling met ontwikkelingsagenda • Benutten synergie-effecten klimaatbeleid


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Ontwikkeling emissies baselinescenario (Gton CO2) 4 3,5

Gton CO2

3 2,5

USA EU-25 East-Asia India

2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1970

1990

2010

2030

2050


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Mogelijke ontwikkelingspaden voor China: ruimte voor grote verschillen

Bron: GEO, RIVM-MNP

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Source: RIVM/ERI, 2001; IMAGE-TIMER calculations

Netherlands Environmental Assesment Agency/RIVM

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Post -2012: kansen en mogelijkheden

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Vormgeving – – 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Voortzetten plafondbenadering deelnemende landen Gedifferentieerde deelname ontwikkelingslanden Absolute doelstellingen Intensiteitdoelstellingen Sectorale taakstellingen Technologie-afspraken Human development doelstellingen (duurzaamheidstrategieën)


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Dank u voor de aandacht!


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Targets and stakeholder participation: Comments and new elements J. Oude Lohuis

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