Tantangan dan potensi Indonesia 2016

Tantangan dan potensi Indonesia 2016 Kresnayana Yahya Email: [email protected] Blog: http://www.kresnayana.com

kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015

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Realitas 2015


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World challenge New orientation


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Rebalancing is needed along two dimensions

Private demand Demand from external surplus economies Public demand Demand from external deficit economies


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Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Data, July 2015


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QE increase reserve account • Example: US Fed : sejak 2008 sudah $ 14 Triliun • Di gelontorkan • Sekarang waktunya dollar ditarik pulang • Dan di masukkan kembali


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Growth of world gross product, 2008–2016*

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Data, 2015; UN/DESA *Growth rate for 2014 is partially estimated; rates for 2015 andkresnayana 2016 are forecast yahya, oktober

2015

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Penyesuaian dan transisi • Saatnya Indonesia membangun Infrastruktur di luar jawa dengan APBN dan di Jawa dengan penyertaan Investor • Konsolidasi utama : Maritim dan Transportasi • Peningkatan kemandirian pangan • Fokus pada penyediaan manusia berkualitas: pendidikan dan kesehatan • Menumbuhkan Ekonomi Kreatif, Pariwisata kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015

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World economic growth 2016

CIS 4.2% US 3.4%

JP 1.3%

EU 2.1% RoA 8.6%

LAm 3.9%

ME/NA 5.1%

World 4.9% S. AF 5.1%

International Macroeconomic Policy situation • Macroeconomic developments depend on macro policies: – Conventional (the policy rate tool, the money supply) and unconventional monetary policy such as, ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy), QE (Quantitative Easing), CE (credit easing), FG (Forward Guidance), Negative Interest Rates, Liquidity Support of Banks and NonBanks – Conventional (tax and government spending) and unconventional fiscal policy (bailouts and backstop of banks, households, corporations and other state guarantees for economic agents kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015

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The Economic Diversification Programme would need to continue, based on the ‘5 Hubs ++’ concept… • Develop renewable energy sources

•

• Oil exploration and production – (Mannar, Cauvery, Southern waters)

• Develop oil trade related ancilliary services including gas

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as a top centre in the region for commercial services • Growth of ports and tourism will catalyse the development of commercial sector • Industry, Manufacturing

• Six international airport

• PORTS – Container mega hub • Medan –Jakarta-Surabaya-MakasarBitung – Free port, Service and Industrial port declared as a “Free Port”

• Modernisation and the Runway at Upgrading of domestic airports

• – Leisure Port •

– Port-related industries and Port City

• as a regional logistics and services hub

l – Commercial and fisheries • Kankasanthurei and Point Pedro – Regional ports • IT literacy and internet access for all

• Arrivals target of 15 mn by 2020

• Creation of knowledge-based jobs • Promotion of research and innovation • as an “education” destination Accredited foreign universities

• Earnings from Tourism – develop tourism HUB kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015

Our vision for a sustainable economic cycle Building growth on opportunities Town amenity

More economic opportunities

Maintain and enhance natural environment

Develop strong communities

More participation opportunities

Reduce inequities Higher value economic activity


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• Indonesia berpeluang menghemat penggunaan BBM khususnya dan energi umumnya, sehingga juga menekan impor dengan cukup signifikan. • Harga energy pada umumnya turun dan beaya logistik diperkirakan makin efisien


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Peta Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Daerah Triwulan II 2015

Sumber : KER BI, 2015


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PDRB per Provinsi Semester I-2015 di Wilayah Timur Indonesia

Sulawesi Selatan

8,7%

163.52

Papua

2,8%

64.06

Sulawesi Tengah

10,6%

51.45

Sulawesi Utara

42.37

Sulawesi Tenggara

41.88

Nusa Tenggara Timur

Gorontalo

Sulawesi Utara

6,4%

2,7%

Sulawesi Tengah

Maluku Utara

3,3% Sulawesi Barat

13,2%

Papua Barat

35.95

Papua Barat Sulawesi Barat

15.79

Gorontalo

13.71

Maluku Utara

12.93

Maluku

12.12 0

50

Sulawesi Tenggara

33,7% 100

150

(triliun rupiah)

200

Papua

Maluku

Sulawesi Selatan

30.88

2,5%

8,6%

Nusa Tenggara Timur

7,4%

Distribusi PDRB

Sumber: BPS Prov (NTT, Sulut, Sulteng, Sulsel, Sultra, Gorontalo, Sulbar, Maluku, Malut, Pabar, & Papua) 2015, diolah Enciety Business Consult


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PETA INFLASI DAERAH



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Konsumsi

Konsumsi rumah tangga (RT) di triwulan II 2015 masih tumbuh melambat dibanding periode triwulan sebelumnya. Konsumsi rumah tangga tumbuh sebesar 4,72% (yoy) di triwulan II 2015, lebih rendah dibanding realisasi di triwulan I 2015 yang tumbuh sebesar 4,96% (yoy). Kondisi ini dipengaruhi oleh meningkatnya harga BBM pada akhir triwulan I dan cenderung melemahnya daya beli masyarakat sebagaimana terindikasi dari hasil Survei Konsumen (SK). Sumber : KER BI, 2015


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Konsumsi

Penyaluran kredit konsumsi bahkan tercatat melambat hingga di titik terendahnya selama 3 tahun terakhir yakni 9,95% (yoy). Sumber : KER BI, 2015


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Produksi Industri Kendaraan Bermotor

Pertumbuhan kredit kendaraan bermotor juga melambat cukup dalam hingga 5,78% (yoy), sejalan dengan rendahnya penjualan sepeda motor dan kendaraan roda 4 yang hanya tumbuh 18% dan -25% secara tahunan. Sumber : KER BI, 2015


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Investasi

Kinerja Investasi PMA

Investasi di triwulan II 2015 tercatat melambat karena terbatasnya investasi swasta maupun pemerintah. Investasi triwulan II 2015 tercatat sebesar 4,70%, melambat dari 5,07% di triwulan I 2015. Kinerja Investasi PMDN

Data BKPM menunjukkan terjadinya penurunan realisasi investasi swasta domestik hingga 7,40% (yoy), sementara peningkatan realisasi investasi swasta asing masih terbatas.



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Perkembangan Investasi

Likert Scale Investasi dan perkiraannya

Masih rendahnya anggaran belanja modal pemerintah baik pusat maupun daerah turut berdampak pada kinerja investasi Jawa.

Indikator Perekonomian Mitra Dagang (PMI)

Demikian halnya dengan impor barang modal yang tercatat menurun cukup dalam hingga 21% (yoy) pada Juni 2015.



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Kinerja Ekspor Jawa

Kinerja ekspor kawasan Jawa di triwulan II 2015 tercatat melambat terutama dipengaruhi oleh masih lemahnya permintaan global. Ekspor Jawa pada triwulan II 2015 tumbuh sebesar 1,77%, melambat dibandingkan triwulan I 2015 yang tumbuh 4,83%. Sumber : KER BI, 2015


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Kinerja Impor Jawa

Pada triwulan II 2015, impor turun cukup signifikan dibandingkan triwulan sebelumnya, khususnya impor barang antara, barang konsumsi dan barang modal.

Impor mengalami penurunan hingga -4,85% (yoy), setelah tumbuh 0,23% pada triwulan sebelumnya. Sumber : KER BI, 2015


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Business tendency third quarter 2015


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The Opportunity of Asian Markets Global Perspective:

Sources: BP Energy Outlook 2035; OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2014

Developing Asia will account for 65% of global energy demand growth – four times the combined growth of Latin America and Africa kresnayana yahya, oktober

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Asia’s Energy Mix (Regional Level)

Source: “Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 20102035,” Asian Development Bank. October 14, 2014.

kresnayana yahya, oktober

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Country and Sub-Regional Views Chin a

SE Asia

Japan

Sources: BP Energy Outlook 2035; OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook Special Report: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook; Nature

While China is looking to shift its mix from coal to gas, SE Asia will see the reverse. Meanwhile: uncertainty in Japan continues to impact markets. kresnayana yahya, oktober

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WHAT IS AT STAKE? • Increasing access to electricity and to energy overall is vital to sustaining the region’s economic growth. • Yet if current trends continue, the Asia-Pacific’s CO2 emissions are likely to more than triple by 2050 (ADB). • Countries are looking for supplies that best provide for three core needs –

and

economic security, environmental security,

geopolitical security.

Source: “Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035,” ADB. October 14, 2014.

“Climate change will cut agricultural crop yields and hike food prices – every 10% rise will push another 64 million Asians into poverty.”


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Asia’s Search for Energy Supply Security • Declining energy self-sufficiency is a regional trend. By 2020, Asia will be a net importer of fossil fuels. • Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are already 100% import dependent for oil, gas, and coal. • Indonesia is seeing domestic demand rise steadily, and is looking for strategies to sustain the role of energy in promoting its economic growth. • China is a top global producer of both oil and gas, yet rising demand means that import dependence will climb through 2035 (oil: 80%; gas: 40%). kresnayana • Australia, Russia, others continue yahya, oktober

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035

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EVALUATING ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES Index for evaluating Energy Security A View from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy • The degree to which stable fuel procurement is possible in the face of contingent/unforeseen risks that impact supplies • The extent to which an environment is in place that allows the fuel to be stably supplied • Specific variables: • Past production record of supplier country • Conflict frequency of supplier country • Disruption risk of transport routes • Overall portfolio of the importing country - diversification of suppliers, transportation routes and fuel mix


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KEY PRIORITIES & QUESTIONS FOR ASIA

Strengthening Markets for Energy and Environmental Security

• Expand energy access to the 700 million people in Asia still without electricity • Develop and strengthen infrastructure to avoid energy becoming a bottleneck to economic growth • Buffer against geopolitical and market shocks that can disrupt access to supplies or increase price volatility • Address rising environmental concerns with air quality and pollution • Pairing technology and policy to improve What consumption role can U.S. exports play in energy supporting these goals?


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GROWING SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN OILU.S. oil production has hit a 40+ year high, and crude inventories are the highest on record Total U.S. energy production & consumption in the Reference case, 1980-2040 (quadrillion Btu)

U.S. net petroleum product imports in four cases, 2005-40 (million barrels per day)

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, The Wall Str Journal.


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What is business

Business – whether they make dog food or software - don’t sell products, they sell solutions


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Disruption • All disruption starts with introspection • You have a choice : pursue your dreams or be hired by someone else to helpthem fulfil their dreams

• True disruption alters a market or system forever kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015

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Entrepreneur

“simply those who understand that there is little difference between obstacle and opportunity and are able to turn both to their advantage”

Will you do it?


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Growth strategy • Cashflow • Market share development • Renewing process


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Market Growth Rate

The Boston Consulting Group’s Growth-Share Matrix 20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0

Stars

4

5

Question marks

3

?2

?

Dogs

Cash cows

6

1

8

7

10x 4x 2xkresnayana 1.5x yahya, 1x oktober.5x .4x .3x .2x .1x60 2015

Relative Market Share

Why The Third Industrial Revolution? • First Industrial Revolution powered by the wheels of power run by steam. • Second Industrial Revolution thrived on great advances on automation & mobility. • The Third Industrial Revolution will be propelled by the power of connectivity, power of mind and energy farming, mass entrepreneurship. There will be no poor, no hunger and no unemployment … kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015

in the third industrial revolution.

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First Industrial Revolution .: Powered by the wheels of power run by steam.


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Second Industrial Revolution .: Thrived on great advances on automation & mobility.


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The Third Industrial Revolution .: Propelled by the power of connectivity, power of mind and energy farming, mass entrepreneurship.

.: connectivity :.

.: power of mind :.

.: energy farming :.

.: mass entrepreneurship :.


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Product Life Cycle applies to every product & service

Medical Telecom

Computer Aerospace

USA

Software base development

Software, Applications

Consumer

Transportation

65 EE141


Mencapai 13 400 tanggal 9/10/2015

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Persentase dan Andil Perubahan (IHPB) Bahan Bangunan/Konstruksi Indonesia Agustus 2015

Sumber: BPS Indonesia


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Persentase dan Andil Perubahan (IHPB) Indonesia Non Migas Agustus 2015



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Persentase Perubahan (IHPB) Menurut Kelompok Bahan Bangunan/Konstruksi Indonesia Agustus 2015



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Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi Jilid III 3. Penyederhanaan izin pertanahan untuk kegiatan penanaman modal 1. Kementerian ATR/BPN merevisi Permen Nomor 2 Tahun 2015 tentang Standar Pelayanan dan Pengaturan Agraria, Tata Ruang, dan Pertanahan dalam Kegiatan Penanaman Modal. 2. Beberapa substansi pengaturan baru ini mencakup beberapa hal, seperti: a. Pemohon mendapatkan informasi tentang ketersediaan lahan (semula 7 hari menjadi 3 jam). b. Seluruh permohonan didaftarkan sebagai bentuk kepastian bagi pemohon terhadap ketersediaan dan rencana penggunaan lahan. Surat akan dikeluarkan dalam waktu 3 jam. c. Kelengkapan perizinan prinsip: - Proposal, pendirian perusahaan, hak atas tanah menjadi persyaratan awal untuk dimulainya kegiatan lapangan. - Ada persyaratan yang dapat menyusul sampai dengan sebelum diterbitkannya keputusan tentang hak penggunaan lahan.

Sumber : Kontan

Pergerakan Rupiah 2015

Sumber : Bloomberg

Rencana Belanja Negara 2016

3. Penyederhanaan izin pertanahan untuk kegiatan penanaman modal

Sumber : Kementerian Keuangan

Proyeksi Inflasi s/d 2016

Sumber : SEKI- BI & CEIC; 2015

Laporan Inflasi (Indeks Harga konsumen) 2015 7.26% 7.15%

7.26% 7.18%

6.96% 6.83%

6.79%

6.38%

6.29%

Januari 2015

Sumber : Laporan BI 2015

Februari 2015

Maret 2015

Apr-15

Mei 2015 Juni 2015 Juli 2015 Agustus 2015

Sep-15

Perkiraan Indikator Ekonomi s/d 2016

Sumber : SEKI- BI & CEIC; 2015

Perkembangan Dan Perkiraan Ekspor Dunia s/d 2019

Sumber: Bappenas – Oxford Economic Model (Baseline Scenario)

Role and Services in Consumer Industry Lab testing Promote the use of standards

R&D+i projects

Enterprise

Product development

Logistics management and ITC

Value Chain Quality System

Training

Pilot Plants Technical Assistance

Technical information and Technological watch

kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015

M A R K E T

Technological Transfer Productivity and Quality improvement R&D+i Innovation

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Forces Of Change Forces

Technology

Asset Management Industry

NOTICE: This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, nonpublic information. The presentation has been prepared solely for information purposes, is not a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented June 26, 2001.


Technology

Changing Customers




Technology

Changing Customers

Market Maturation




Technology

Changing Customers

Market Maturation


Increased Competition



Changes Power Shifting to Distributors

Technology Losing Control of the Customer Greater Mobility of Assets

Changing Customers

Market Maturation

Ubiquity of Products & Services


Performance Transparency Price Transparency Commodization of the Mutual Fund


Slower Organic Growth Increased Pressure On Margins


The Hypernet Devices

Bandwidth

2010

Standards

Fragmentation/ Integration

2000

Services

Virtualization

INTERNET

HYPERNET


Changes Power Shifting to Distributors

Technology Losing Control of the Customer Greater Mobility of Assets

Changing Customers

Market Maturation

Ubiquity of Products & Services


Performance Transparency Price Transparency Commodization of the Mutual Fund


Slower Organic Growth Increased Pressure On Margins


Foxconn/China:

1,000,000

robots in next 3 years Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

1

“The root of our problem is not that we’re in a Great Recession or a Great Stagnation, but rather that we are in the early

Great Restructuring. Our throes of a

technologies are racing ahead, but our skills and organizations are lagging behind.”

Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

1

New Growth Strategy 2010 – 2020 Green Innovation Life Innovation

Financial Sector

Employment & Human Resources

Strategic Areas

Science and Technology IT Oriented Nation

Asia

TourismOriented Nation & Local Revitalization

…And Affected by the Development of Organizations

Control

Collaborate

Compete

Create

kresnayana yahya, www.competingvalues.com pengembanganindustri september 2015

88 Where is Your Organization on the growth curve?

The Innovation Cycle for SME’s

R&D Business Intelligence Product Development

Technological Audits Prototyping

Quality Product & Systems Certification

Lab Tests Training Legislative Surveillance

kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015 891

Why is AM(additive manufacturing) becoming so important to manufacturers (I want to be a user!)

So where are the opportunities to get involved in the consumer 3D printing space?

The 3DP Ecosystem Materials

Design solutions

Data management

Integrated solutions

Machines

Products

Front end software Materials

Design solutions

Back-end software


Machines

Products

Managing Change

Technology Commitment

Leadership

Communications

Change

Mission/Vision

Coaching

Strategies The Human Side kresnayana yahya, of Change pengembanganindustri september 2015

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“Mengangkat Indonesia menjadi negara maju dan merupakan kekuatan 12 besar dunia di tahun 2025 dan 8 besar dunia pada tahun 2045 melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan”

100 tahun kemerdekaan 2045 PDB ~US$ 16.6 Trilyun

2025

2010 PDB ~ US$ 700 Milyar Pendapatan/kap US$ 3,000 (2010) Terbesar ke-17 besar dunia

PDB: 3,8 – 4,5 Trilyun US$ Pendapatan/kap: 13.000 – 16.100 US$ Terbesar ke-12 dunia Proyeksi KEN Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 14,900 (high income country)

Prediksi Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 46,900 Diprediksi menjadi terbesar ke-7 atau ke-8 dunia*) (Sumber: Master Plan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia 2011– 2025 )

Pencapaian Visi 2025 dan 2045 memerlukan penyiapan generasi yang mampu berperan aktif dalam kegiatan pembangunan. Edukasi, Investasi dan Infrastruktur kresnayana yahya, 100

Creative Economy Creative Economy

Community

Experience

Reflection

Integration

Innovation

Experience

Experience

Community

Trend pekerjaan masa depan • Makin banyak pekerjaan bukan rutin job, makin banyak non rutin work . Kerja profesionals makin entrepreneurial • Wujud pekerjaan makin Service based berbasis Knowledge dan mengandung Problem solving • Penghargaan tertinggi pada kemampuan Design • Menghadapi MEA , kemampuan kerja produktif harus ditingkatkan • Creativity menjadi elemen utama dalam peningkatan innovasi

EC and Business Processes Seller

Dis/Re-intermediation

Selling Process Provide Info

Send info

Data sheets, catalogs, demos

Corporate Databases

Request info

Phone, fax, e-mail

Get customer

Buyer Procurement Process Identify need

Web surfing

Web site

Web searches, web ads

Find source

Newsgroups Provide info Demos, reviews Fulfill order

Evaluate offerings

Net communities

Web site

P.O.s

Credit cards, e-cash

Purchase

EDI Deliver soft goods electronically

Support

Web site, phone, fax, e-mail, emailing list

Operate, Maintain, Repair

Customer Feedbacks/Reviews © Minder Chen, 1996-2014

EC - 109

The Community of an Exchange: Information Flow and Access to Information

Government

Professional Association

Universities Research Institutions

Manufacturers Dealers Contractors Suppliers

Market Maker and Administrator Trading Community

Customers

( An Exchange )

Retailers

Subsuppliers

Content Providers

Banks Financial Institutions

Pearson/Prentice Hall & Dr. Chen, Electronic Commerce

Logistics Services

IT Providers

Other Exchanges

A staircase model of knowledge competitive advantage competency act applying

knowledge information data

+ uniqueness + act “correct” + strategic intent + focus of application

+ context (experiences, expectations)

symbols

+ meaning + syntax

Source: North, K. (1999): Wissensbasierte Unternehmensführung: Wertschöpfung durch Wissen. 2. Aufl., Wiesbaden: Gabler. Manfred Bornemann: Wissensmanagement 2013

education transformation 2015

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113

The Real Cost of Music: Physical vs. Digital

© Minder Chen, 1996-2014

EC - 114

Mental Resources Technology Information Knowledge

Creativity

“Unlike material resources, information & knowledge are not lost when you give them away.” Harlan Cleveland kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015

115

Internet as Mental Organization 

Internet multiplies human capabilities & extends social organization 1000-fold Global social networking  Global access to information  Global free communication  Global transactions 



The potential impact on productivity of resources & quality of life is incalculable kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015

116

The Analytics Maturity Model How do we do things better?

Predictive Modeling

What will happen next?

Forecasting

What if these trends continue? Why is this happening? What opportunities are we missing?

Statistical Analysis Alerts

Query Drill-down Ad-Hoc Reports Standard Reports

Optimization

What actions are needed? Where exactly is the problem

How many, how often? What happened?


Adapted from SAS

117

Why is AM(additive manufacturing) becoming so important to manufacturers (I want to be a user!)

So where are the opportunities to get involved in the consumer 3D printing space?

The 3DP Ecosystem Materials

Design solutions

Data management


Machines

Products

Front end software Materials

Design solutions

Back-end software


Machines

Products

Managing Change

Technology Commitment

Leadership

Communications

Change

Mission/Vision

Coaching

Strategies The Human Side kresnayana yahya, of Change pengembanganindustri september 2015

122


123


124


125


127

“Mengangkat Indonesia menjadi negara maju dan merupakan kekuatan 12 besar dunia di tahun 2025 dan 8 besar dunia pada tahun 2045 melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan”

100 tahun kemerdekaan 2045 PDB ~US$ 16.6 Trilyun

2025

2010 PDB ~ US$ 700 Milyar Pendapatan/kap US$ 3,000 (2010) Terbesar ke-17 besar dunia

PDB: 3,8 – 4,5 Trilyun US$ Pendapatan/kap: 13.000 – 16.100 US$ Terbesar ke-12 dunia Proyeksi KEN Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 14,900 (high income country)

Prediksi Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 46,900 Diprediksi menjadi terbesar ke-7 atau ke-8 dunia*) (Sumber: Master Plan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia 2011– 2025 )

Pencapaian Visi 2025 dan 2045 memerlukan penyiapan generasi yang mampu berperan aktif dalam kegiatan pembangunan. Edukasi, Investasi dan Infrastruktur kresnayana yahya, 128

Tantangan di Indonesia • Pasar yang sangat besar dan sangat MUDA, median age Indonesia 26 Tahun • Middle class economy 120 juta- 150 juta orang untuk beragam durable goods • Tersebar di ratusan pulau dan berjarak • Waktunya mendistribusika n kegiatan idnutry di luar Jawa • Produk high tech dan applicationnya justru menjadi kebutuhan • Proses adaptasi Teknologi baru jadi sangat mudah

Mental Resources Technology Information Knowledge

Creativity

“Unlike material resources, information & knowledge are not lost when you give them away.” Harlan Cleveland kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015

130

Internet as Mental Organization 

Internet multiplies human capabilities & extends social organization 1000-fold Global social networking  Global access to information  Global free communication  Global transactions 



The potential impact on productivity of resources & quality of life is incalculable kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015

131

The Analytics Maturity Model How do we do things better?

Predictive Modeling

What will happen next?

Forecasting

What if these trends continue? Why is this happening? What opportunities are we missing?

Statistical Analysis Alerts

Query Drill-down Ad-Hoc Reports Standard Reports

Optimization

What actions are needed? Where exactly is the problem

How many, how often? What happened?


Adapted from SAS

132

Indonesia masa depan • Kelas menengah akan mencapai 150 juta orang di 2030 • Konsumsi akan meningkat tajam setelah 2025 • Pola Industry sudah memasuki tahap integrasi dengan Internet • Tenaga kerja terdidikmelipat dua dibanding 2015 • Peran di Asean akan makin dominan kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015

133

Penduduk Indonesia : Young population Indonesia

6%

66%

28%

Kondisi kependudukan Indonesia

Kelompok usia produktif 15-64 tahun mencapai 66 % atau 165 juta Merupakan kesempatan dan peluang konsumsi yang luar biasa besar dan laju pertumbuhannya cukup tinggi Kelompok dibawah 15 tahun yang cukup besar : 70 juta

strategic management Indonesia Sumber: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 2015, kresnayana yahya (20101120_WOC951)

134

Angka Ketergantungan per 100 penduduk usia kerja 1971

2000

2020-2030

>2030

86

54

44

>50

100 orang bekerja menangung 54

100 orang bekerja menanggung 44

tanggungan meningkat karena pesatnya pertambahan lansia

100 orang bekerja menanggung 86

strategic management Indonesia 2015, kresnayana yahya

135

Generasi Emas 100 Tahun Indonesia Merdeka Strukutur Penduduk Indonesia Tahun 2010 75 + 70-74 60-69

Kelompok umur

50-59

Periode Bonus Demografi 2005-2035

3,853 Jumlah Penduduk:

238,5 Juta orang

3,376

Generasi 100 thn Merdeka (Usia pada tahun 2045)

Pendidikan dan Kesehatan Pastikan setiap anak bangsa mendapatkan layanan Pendidikan dan Kesehatan

10,808

55-64 tahun 20,026

45-54 tahun 40-49

30,730

35-44 tahun 30-39

20-29

38,501

41,529

10-19 0-9

Generasi Pemegang Kunci Kejayaan Indonesia

43,724

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END OF SLIDES THANK YOU Kresnayana Yahya Email: [email protected] Blog: http://www.kresnayana.com

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