Seminar. Good Statistics for a. Sustainable Development of. Suriname. 26 June 2009 Courtyard by Marriott Hotel Paramaribo

Seminar

Good Statistics for a

Sustainable Development

of

Suriname Report

26 June 2009 | Courtyard by Marriott Hotel | Paramaribo

PREFACE

Preface

Quit often the gathering, analyzing and dissemi-

studies and improve our efficiency and competi-

keling van Suriname” took place in Paramaribo,

nating of statistics is considered as “dry area”,

tiveness, so more employment can be generated

with the presence of relevant personalities and

left out to statisticians within their technical do-

for example?

institutions from the public and private sectors to whom the SBC acknowledge its gratitude for

main. However, the role and the significance of statistics is critical and crucial for the decision

We may not agree in providing answers to these

sharing with us their expertise. Particularly, we

making process at government and private sector

questions, and obviously for a variety of reasons.

would like to express our gratitude to the Alge-

levels, for researchers and analysts trying to fore-

For some we have more than enough informa-

meen Bureau voor Statistiek (ABS) for making

cast markets, prices or weather conditions. For

tion to make proper decisions, for others may be

possible this gathering and participating with

many, information and statistics in particular is

insufficient, and for the more critical users, our

us all the way, from the beginning to end, in the

the daily bread to make decisions. Another criti-

system is still underdeveloped.

organization. Our appreciation also is recognized to the speakers for their commitment in making

cal attribute to information and statistics, is the great deal of high level of confidentiality in both:

It is the intention of the Suriname Business Devel-

a greater Suriname through their knowledge and

preparing and use of information, either for busi-

opment Center (SBC), which is the executive arm

experience. Also we would like to thank the Min-

ness, government or for strategic objectives (i.e.

of the Suriname Business Forum, to promote this

ister of Planning & Ontwikkelingssamenwerking,

business market research on consumer behavior

kind of dialogue between businesses, the govern-

Mr. Ricardo van Ravenswaay for the opening of

over the supply of products and services).

ment and the civil society in general, in order to

the seminar. Lastly, our recognition to the Euro-

improve our competitive capacity, strengthening

pean Union for providing resources and making

The agencies command to prepare the statisti-

the domestic sector and establishing an open and

possible the existence of the SBC, as an execu-

cal information are therefore empowering with

constructive dialogue with the government over

tive arm of the Suriname Business Forum (SBF),

great deal of resources and innovative practices

critical issues, like the generation and dissemi-

and to the SBC staff for their contribution in this

in developing methods and systems that can be

nation of information, with the ultimate goal of

challenge to promote dialogue and build strength

applied consistently and continuously. If the sys-

improving the sustainable development of Suri-

and competitive capacity to the domestic private

tem breaks or produces insufficient or unreliable

name.

sector of Suriname.

information, the consequences can be very disturbing for the people, for the investor, for the

In this publication we want to offer you the pre-

government and, in true, for the whole country.

sentations, expressions, reflections and work

Ernesto Ugarte

What is the level of information that is currently

accomplished by different sectors and organiza-

Long Term Technical Assistant of the SBF

available in Suriname? Do we generate enough

tions producing, generating and using informa-

information to make proper planning, to make

tion in Suriname, within the framework of the

sound investment decisions, to promote foreign

public-private partnership dialogue.

investment, to provide consumer with the in-

2

formation needed to make alternative choices?

The results and presentations of the seminar

Is our information good enough to make sector

“Goede statistieken voor een Duurzame Ontwik-

Seminar Good Statistics for a Sustainable Development of Suriname


3

LIST OF CONTENTS

LIST of ABREVIATIONS: Pagina

List of Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Foreword Ir. E. Isselt (Director SBC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.

Word of Welcome Ing. R. Doekhie (Chairman SBF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

ABS

General Office for the Statistics

ATM

Ministry of Labour Technology and Environment

BBP

Gross Domestics Product

BNP

Gross National Product

BOG

Office Public Health

CBB

Central Citizen Administration Office

CPI

Consumer Price Index

EU

European Union

2.

Opening speech Dr. R. van Ravenswaay (Minister PLOS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

GGDS

General Data Dissemination System

3.

Presentations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

HDI

Human Development Index

3.1. Drs. I. Sno: The Importance of Good Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

IMF

International Monetary Fund

3.2. Prof. Dr. J. Menke : Conceptual and Methodological . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

IE

Informal Economy

JAP

Johan Adolf Pengel Airport

3.3. Drs. A. Coffeng: Measuring is Knowing and Guessing is Missing . . . . . . . . . . . 18

MICS

Multi Indicator Cluster Survey

3.4. Ing. O. dos Ramos: Statistics, important for Business sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

NSDS

National Strategy for the Development of Statistics

PLOS

Ministry of Planning and Development Co-operation

SBC

Suriname Business Development Centre

SBF

Suriname Business Forum

5. Results Working group discussions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

SDDS

Specific Data Dissemination System

5.1. Working group 1: Macro-data needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

SRD

Surinamese Dollar

5.2. Working group 2: Increased Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

STS

Foundation Tourism Suriname

5.3. Working group 3: Quantify Informal sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

SME

Small and Medium Size Enterprises

5.4. Working group 4: Improve Availability of Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

4.

Problems in Survey research: the Informal sector

Plenary Discussion rounds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

6. Evaluation by the participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 7.

General conclusions/recommendations by the Chairman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

8. Follow-up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 ANNEXES: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

4

1.

Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

2.

List of participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

3.

Responses Satisfactory survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

4.

Power-point Presentations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93



5

Foreword Director SBC:

1

Word of Welcome Ing. R. Doekhie (Chairman SBF)

The objective of the seminar is, in cooperation

The chairman of the Suriname Business Forum

with the institutes involved in the collection and

(SBF), Mr. Rahid Doekhie wishes the participant

dissemination of statistics (including GBS), to

a warm welcome. He stresses the importance

create the awareness between the private sector

of Good Statistics for an adequate planning of

and the public sector for the use, the availability

both the Business sector and for good Govern-

and the value of statistics for a sustainable devel-

ance. For sustainable development planning is

opment of Suriname.

indispensable and therefore figures are needed. Measuring is Knowing and Guessing is Missing

For this 1-day seminar the following tangible

[Messing].

results are formulated: People do not sufficiently realize the importance Policymakers need demographic statistics and

• an increased awareness in the public and

of statistics. The Business sector frequently does

other business indicators at detailed level, among

the private sector, especially the SMEs, of

not provide the necessary data, because the

others to understand the dynamics of SMEs and

the importance and the use of statistics as a

awareness is often lacking. We have to convince

planning tool;

the Business sector to increase their response

to monitor the performance and the competitiveness of the various sectors.

• a larger willingness under SMEs to cooperate with the statistical institutes to supply

At the same time the private sector needs statis-

the requested statistical information, which

tics to take trade- and investment decisions and

are relevant for a sustainable development of

to monitor market developments.

and also to give them the required guarantees on the handling of their information.

Suriname; • the formulation of conclusions and recom-

The lack of reliable statistical information to

mendations over the expansion and improve-

underpin policy preparation and to respond to the

ment of the statistical data collection and how

needs of the local private sector is an important

to disseminate the data, including the central

constraint for the development of the domestic

role the SBF/SBC can play;

private sector. Also the informal economy to a large extent escapes the quantitative analyses and

I wish you a fruitful seminar.

only relevant information from qualitative research can be obtained to complete the statistics.

6

Ir. Ernie P. Isselt



7

2

Opening speech Dr. R. van Ravenswaay

2

Opening speech Dr. R. van Ravenswaay (minister of Planning and Development Cooperation)

Indeed, “Good Statistics are a blessing, but bad

the initiative of today even more, because the

Statistics are a disaster”. The key is that for a

initiative comes from the Business sector itself

well functioning statistical system trustworthy

under the umbrella of the “Suriname Business

statistical institutes in Suriname to a higher level.

arrangements between the data processor and

Development Centre”, to create the forum to dis-

An important component of this plan will be the

the source (data collector) are needed. These

cuss and solve the existing problems.

capacity strengthening of the statistical institutes

arrangements include the regular supply as well

in general, and more specific the GBS. According

as the data collection methods (representative/

When we all agree that the private sector has

to the agreement this strategic plan will be ready

a-select).

to be the engine of the economy, than we need

(Minister of Planning and Development Cooperation)

in November of this year.

to realise that for a planned development of Good Statistics can only be produced in a net-

that economy good and reliable Statistics are a

Talking about Statistics brings immediately

work where all network component stick to the

condition for effective development.

GBS in the picture. Over the years GBS not only

arrangements. Within this statistical network the

provided services to the Surinamese society but

Business sector is an important player as data

For the further development of the statistical

the GBS as an institute was also able to present

source. There are still too many obstacles in the

institutes in Suriname the problems with data

itself as an authority with respect and a positive

data collection and -supply from the Business

supply / collection from the Business sector

Ladies and Gentlemen, as minister of PLOS,

image. Today the publications of the GBS on e.g.

sector. While the statistics law is clear on the ob-

has to be discussed and resolved. Today the

responsible for the statistics in Suriname I am

the inflation figures are used as reference. On

ligation to make data available and the confiden-

setting is right. My advice is not to waste time

honoured to address you on this seminar organised

the reporting on the developments related to the

tiality guarantee on supplied data, in practice too

and to seize the opportunity not only to establish

by the Suriname Business Development Centre

millennium goals the GBS plays a central role.

many companies are still not providing the right

mutual trust but also to raise the awareness that

information. There is still some suspicion toward

good Statistics are a condition for development.

under the title “Good Statistics for a sustainable development in Suriname”. In the world of today

However, we often assume that the production of

the information collector on the use and the des-

Therefore, I wish you fruitful discussions, leading

we cannot prosper or even not survive by basing

Statistics is one of the easiest tasks in the world,

tination of the data made available. The conse-

to solutions and better understanding. Once more

our policy on simple superficial observations.

without any understanding of the huge amount

quence is that instead of improving, the reliability

Congratulations Suriname Business Development

We increasingly realize that for an effective and

of data which has to be collected or supplied

of the Statistics are decreasing. We compliment

Centre with this initiative. I thank you.

efficient implementation of our policy a planned

by others to arrive at the production of reliable

approach is needed, based on statistical facts.

Statistics. As we know data for Statistics are

The plans, the projections, the monitoring of

obtained in 3 ways including: census, surveys

policies as well as the modification of policies

and from administrative data.

has proved to be more effective if availability and quality of the Statistics are better.

For the availability of good and reliable Statistics, we need on top of a well functioning statistics bu-

8

Against this background the production of both

reau a whole network of institutes and companies

qualitative and quantitative better statistics is a

which has to collect and deliver the necessary data

priority. While we are aware that for an effective

properly and regularly in a certain format. Apart

policy a good statistical basis is needed, we

from Good agreements for data collection and

started yesterday with the development of

-delivery there should also be a t relationship of

the NSDS, the National Strategic Plan for the

trust between the key stakeholders in the network

development of the Statistical Institutes in

required, in order to guarantee that the correct,

Suriname. With this plan we hope to lift the

thus reliable, information is delivered on time.



9

3

Presentations

3.1.

Drs. I. Sno: “The Importance of Good Statistics”

Mr. Sno said that the seminar comes y at an ap-

Statistics and no history. The General Data

available on an impartial basis by official statis-

and average incomes.

Dissemination System (GDDS) prescribes for

tical agencies to honor citizens’ entitlement to

GDP and GNP estimates 6 to 9 months. Suri-

public information”.

• Ad 3- The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per

name is ready in 61⁄2 to 7 months (ready mid

capita is an indicator for welfare (not for well

or end of July). For CPI 4-8 weeks are pre-

P-2 Professional Standards and Ethics: “to retain

being). The Consumer Price Index is an in-

scribed and Suriname is ready in 3 weeks.

trust in Official Statistics, the statistical agencies

dicator for inflation. Indicators are Statistics

• accessible: statistics produced by a statistics

need to decide according to strictly professional

specific or of importance for certain policy

producer (e.g. GBS, CBB, BOG, CBvS) – in

considerations, including scientific principles and

areas which indicates the success of the poli-

accordance with the Fundamental Principles

professional ethics, on the methods and proce-

cies.

of Official Statistics – which are not acces-

dures for the collection, processing, storage and

sible for the users are of no use.

presentation of statistical data”.

i. live expectancy at birth; ii. education level (measured with adult lit-

(e.g. at households, companies, meteorological stations) in a form which are not useful. 10

P-3 Accountability and Transparency: “to facilitate

and standards. E.g. National Accounts.

a correct interpretation of the data, the statistical

conflict with each other. There may be differ-

scientific standards on the sources, methods and

iii income level (measured with the real

ences, but “reconciliation” must be possible,

procedures of statistics”.

GDP per capita) These 3 are combined

in order to allow for a plausible and smooth

eracy and enrolment level), and;

switch from the one to the other set of data.

P-4 Prevention of Misuse: “the statistical agencies

• complete: the set of statistics has to cover

are entitled to comment on erroneous interpreta-

all variables one may wish to measure. For

tion and misuse of statistics”. According to W.

Statistics must be in accordance with the laws

instance, the National Accounts should cover

de Vries, former acting director of the Statistical

in Suriname but also with the international fun-

all accounts (which is not the case in Suri-

Commission, the interpretation of the formulation

damentals. This is the reason why the Business

name), cover the whole economy.

“have the right”, must be “are obliged”.

sector cannot obtain all information, e.g. in case of only 1 or 2 importers.

FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES

P-6 Confidentiality: “individual data collected by

OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS

statistical agencies for statistical compilation, whether they refer to natural or legal persons, are

The presenter highlighted the characteristics of Good Statistics, including:

• Ad 1- Raw data which are at several sources

international accepted principles, guidelines

agencies are to present information according to

parisons in time and space.

THE INFORMATION PYRAMID

• comparable: this is important for the use of

• comprehensive: Figures should not be in

in 1 figure. These Indices allow for com-

1 - Raw data

mographic, social and environmental situation.

bles and graphs) of o.a. wages and prices

of data. Statistics are the Result of scientifically

2 - Statistics

the public with data about the economic, de-

of practical utility are to be compiled and made

ing, analyses, interpretation and presentation

3 - Indicators

pecially at IMF) appreciated by everybody. • actual and punctual; to publish as soon as

To this end, official statistics that meet the test

of the UNDP includes:

4Indices

society, serving Government, the economy and

at the time you promised to publish. We want

• Ad 4- The HDI (Human Development Index)

and data dissemination).

data is better than bad data”, which is not (es-

possible after the data collection and punctual

Statistics is the science of the collection, process-

processing, data analyses, process evaluation


• Ad 2- Statistics (e.g. processed in cross ta-

propriate time ..

reliable research activities (data collection, data

3.1.

• relevancy; for the users, because we don’t

These are, according to the United Nations, no

to be strictly confidential and used exclusively for

end products. They are intermediate products es-

statistical purposes”.

pecially for decision making and research: P-8 National Coordination: “coordination among

need Statistics nobody is interested in. • accuracy; statistics must have a certain ac-

P-1: Relevance, Impartiality and Equal Access:

statistical agencies within countries is essential

curacy and reliability. They have to be tested

“official statistics provide an indispensable ele-

to achieve consistency and efficiency in the sta-

a.o. on plausibility. The ‘motto of GBS is: “No

ment in the information system of a democratic

tistical system”.



11


3.1.


3.1.

P-9 International Standards: “The use by statisti-

THE SURINAME[SE] SITUATION:

of sector 4 (Electricity, Gas and Water), where all

Costs of selected research (mail surveys)

cal agencies in each country of international con-

THE USE OF STATISTICS AND BUSINESS RESULTS

companies are responding (thus 100%), the re-

Mail out –Mail back surveys by companies are

sponse lie between 20% and 71%.

much cheaper, but the responses are too low. A

cepts, classifications and methods promotes the consistency and efficiency of statistical systems

The GBS receives between 80 and 220 (on aver-

predominantly written nation-wide survey would

at all official levels”.

age 130) formal requests for information monthly.

cost on average about 115,000 USD a year.

Over the period 2005-2008 the amount of formal Statistics are of importance

requests was between 1260 and 1725. The to-

(are even indispensable):

tal amount of requests (in writing, by telephone,

CONCLUSIONS AND CLOSING REMARKS

plus orally) per year was more than 2000. • for Policy preparation and planning (up-

• Adequate Statistics are of importance for

stream use): without adequate Statistics it

policy and planning in the broadest sense for

is impossible to plan, prepare policies and

research, but also for use by the average citizens who needs information.

monitor policies. The aim to go for a lowest inflation possible as soon as possible has no

• Without adequate Statistics one cannot pre-

meaning. One is transparent and accountable

pare its policy and also not monitor the im-

if this is quantified: e.g. year end inflation

plementation. • Without adequate Statistics one cannot plan

should not be higher than 8% within 2 years and average inflation less than 10%; • for the monitoring and evaluation of policy

There seems to be a link between the companies who request information at GBS and their gross

future in a structured way.

profit. The companies who indicate that they

• All stakeholders (statistics producers, gov-

• for scientific research;

make use of the official Statistics show a signifi-

ernment, Business sector, trade unions, and

• nowadays we have to add: participation in in-

cant higher gross profit compared to those who

ternational initiatives like the GDDS of the IMF,

do not make use of it. Information is predomi-

Costs of selected research (face-to-face)

as important input for the ratings by interna-

nantly requested by the larger companies. If we

• The regular household research in Paramar-

• Companies who make use of Good Statistics

tional rating Agencies (Moody’s, Standard &

correct for the size of their business we still see

ibo and Wanica (1000-1500 households per

are on average performing better than com-

Poors, Fitch) and for concluding loans with-

a significantly higher profit for the user of Statis-

quarter) costs about 100,000 USD annually

out collateral. The ratings are of importance

tics. This is a clear message to the companies.

(coverage 68%).

and planning (downstream use);

citizens in general) are responsible for the realization of Good Statistics.

panies who don’t. • Good Statistics are not cheap and in many

to conclude international loans, including its

• An average country-wide household research

countries statistical systems are under-fund-

conditions. The better the ratings the better

(for example the Multiple Indicator Cluster

ed and under-performing. Unless the sys-

THE SURINAMESE SITUATION: RESPONSE

Survey (MICS) under about 6,000 households,

tems are improved, the lack of good quality

(HOUSEHOLDS versus COMPANIES)

with a maximum of 2 repeat visits per house-

statistics will constrain economic and social

the conditions. IMF is stimulating member states to grow from GDDS to SDDS.

hold, cost about 250,000 USD in Suriname.

• for regional integration. The focus is here on

12

and without planning one cannot design its

harmonisation of Statistics and convergence

Estimates of aggregates for the National Accounts

For the additional 32% coverage an additional

criteria in CARICOM and EU.

can be collected directly (survey, census data or

150,000 USD has to be paid.

development. • Evidence-based decision-making is a universally recognized paradigm of efficient

from administrative accounts) or indirectly (ex-

• The budget research in six districts (Para-

management of economic and social affairs

The latter 2 are possibly part of policy, but they

trapolation of basis data with indicators). The

maribo, Wanica, Nickerie, Coronie, Saramacca

and of overall effective governing of societies

deserve a separate treatment. Also: “Good Statis-

response of companies, however, is poor, much

and Commewijne) costs about 260,000 USD.

tics are a core component of Good Governance”

lower than in the developed countries (which are

In case of a country-wide research these costs

• In the future statistical thinking will be for all

(PARIS-21).

also low): in Canada around 40%, in the USA

would be more than doubled (about 543,000

of us at least as important as the ability to

around 55%. For Suriname, with the exception

USD).

read and write!


today.


13

3.2.

Prof. Dr. J. Menke: “Conceptual and methodological problems at surveys: the Informal economy”

3.2.

Prof. Dr. J. Menke: “Conceptual and methodological problems at surveys: the Informal economy” What is the Informal Economy? Economy where institutional regulations in the

3.2.


Production & distribution process

End product

Type economy

‘Valid’

‘Valid’

Formal

‘Not Valid’

‘Valid’

Informal

‘Not Valid’ or ‘Valid’

‘Not Valid’

Criminal

legal and social field are lacking or weak and official regulation are by-passed. The Informal

Menke emphasises the “global restructuring” of

economy is a result of the sort of intervention

the world economy, where competitiveness is the

by the State: which determines the differences in

dominant factor. Here subcontracting is a rela-

time and space.

tively new popular method to depress the cost of

Pillars ‘Global Restructuring’ Pillars ‘Global Restructuring’

Identificatie van internationaal laagste/efficientste kosten van materiaal & producten

Drukken arbeidskosten door o.m. informele arbeid

production, but also due to a larger flexibility. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS IN SURVEYS:

Good definitions are important. There are some misconceptions about the Informal economy, in-

Subcontracting:

The survey method contains data collection

cluding:

• Subcontracting: companies who are focusing

based on cases and variables at a certain point

• Exotic sector with survival activities or hus-

in time. The objective is to describe features and especially to establish relationships and to esti-

tler/poor households. • Tax evaders.

mates.

on their “core business” leaving the other ac-

Menke presents the case of the ATM/ABS re-

tivities to contractors/ subcontractors.

search 2006, with assistance of Mr. R. Simons of

• Generally they do not meet the requirements of the economic and/ or social laws.

the ILO, with a sample in 6 districts in Suriname under 2467 households. Within the households

In order to understand the Informal economy bet-

• in Suriname this employment relation started

heads of households and employed persons

This research method is very popular as a result

ter one must understand that it is not only about

in the 80-ies when the larger Business sector

were identified. Some of the conclusions were

of the enormous mechanical advancement and

survival or hustler activities. Informality cuts

increasingly started working with contrac-

that there was underreporting of the second job:

the usefulness for management, theory formu-

through all types of businesses and size (also in

tors.

only 2,7% of the employed confirmed to have a

lation and modern multiple-variable statistical

large formal companies) with sliding [shifting]

analyses. Technological development with the

borders of informality.

computer provide unbelievable possibilities, that were not there in previous times. Still there are

Types of economies:

especially in Third World societies, conceptual,

INFORMAL ECONOMY VS INFORMAL SECTOR

measuring techniques and ideological complica-

• Informal economy (IE) is broader than Infor-

tions.

second job. Since this figure seems unrealistiFor example contractors in the mining industry.

cally low the analyses had to be restricted to the

• The multinational works always with con-

first job.

tracting and subcontracting, while decreasing the number of fixed employees.

technological problems. Surveys bring along,

mal sector. • IE includes the group of workers and compa-

14

INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT

• The non-core business (transport of work-

The core indicators for informality are: • registration of the economic activity

ers, cleaning, technical maintenance etc.) is

• bookkeeping of the economic activity

subcontracted to an American main contrac-

• accident Insurance coverage.

tor X.

THE INFORMAL ECONOMY;

nies (and their production and employment

• The main contractor X does business with

CONCEPT AND METHOD

relations) who do not comply with the eco-

Surinamese subcontractors who contract

employment:

nomic and/ or social laws and regulations.

workers under less favorable terms.

a) summing up of selected indicators for each

Establish procedures for the informal and formal

Frequently there are divergent valuations in the

• Informal economy includes both the Informal

• The multinational is utilizing about 1.000

same society (for example: Belgium 4%- 20 %).

sector as well as the not-standard employ-

workers under contract of about 6 subcon-

b) all indicators are dichotomized,

This must be attributed to the chosen concept

ment relations with insufficient employment

tractor companies.

c) a job is formal if all indicators are positive,

(definition variation) and/ or sampling method.

conditions in the formal sector.


category of workers,


15

3.2.


d) workers in the government sector (by defini-

Possible Solutions:

tion formal) are included only in the general

a) the abolition of ‘proxies’

analyses to have a feeling of the size of the

b) reduce the high non-response from private

3.3.

Drs. A. Coffeng: “Measuring is knowing and guessing is missing”

3.3.

Drs. A.Coffeng: “Measuring is knowing and guessing is missing”

sector workers on the indicators (registration,

formal employment,

bookkeeping) by obtaining required information

e) workers in the agricultural sector are not in-

4. Labour market Statistics: by branch, wage

about the companies via business registers of

cluded in the analyses.

level by function, vacancies

official institutions or directly at the companies.

5. Import Statistics.

Some suggestions: • data collection problems need to be systematically inventoried and resolved.

These proposals will increase the research costs

Two respondents requested detailed information on

substantially, which have to be borne by all part-

sales of the competitors in the sector. Coffeng ad-

ners. Statistics of the Informal and formal em-

vised those persons to talk to their competitors, like

• This especially goes for issues forthcoming

ployment must be published periodically by the

in the hotel sector who hold monthly meetings.

from non-standard employment relations of

GBS on the basis of the Results of the regular

the formal companies with contractors. Some

household surveys.

In the preparation of this presentation Coffeng re-

He stressed the correct use of statistical data, like

quested by e-mail the following questions to the

for instance in comparing the beer consumption

probably incorrectly indicate to be working in

The total Informal and formal employment in

members of the Society of Economists (VES),

per capita between countries. In the Netherlands

the contracting formal company.

all labour categories, including the category

including:

the per capita beer consumption is 80 liters.

‘unknown’ is: 41% informal, 39% formal,

• Which statistical data are needed?

Comparing this figure with the consumption in

• the high underreporting of the second job

and 20% is not clear whether this is formal or

• Which are available?

Suriname does not work. It is important to take

and a high non-response on the indicators

informal. In case ‘unknown’ would be excluded

• Is the quality OK?

into account the population pyramid. The popula-

(the basis for establishing informality) is a

from the analyses 51% of the workers would be

• Which data are needed and not available?

tion of 20 year and older is:

major problem.

informal and 49% formal.

(Informal) workers of contracted companies

Category

Workers excl. government

Informal

Formal

• in the Netherlands: 75% and

Total

82.6%

17.4%

100%

Workers government

0.0%

100.0%

100%

Small entrepreneurs

83.4%

16.6%

100%

Employers

45.7%

54.3%

100%

Total employment

50.7%

49.3%

100%

The conclusion is that the Informal economy is the most important creator of employment, with an estimated share of half of the total employment outside agriculture.

Among others due to short response period the

• in Suriname: 60%.

response was low. The responses came from: the

The consumption must be related to the popula-

food industry (1); shipping (1); mining (2) and

tion size of 20 years and older.

the trade in transport means (1). ARE CONSUMER PRICES STILL the demographic data are sufficiently available and of Good quality. Data which are not available

Statistics which are for many years already up

or of insufficient quality are:

to date include the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

1. Labour productivity by sector

Each 3rd week of the month the new figures over

2. Expenditure pattern of consumers by region,

the previous month are published. But are these

by income class, age and ethnicity

well reported in the media. The monthly changes

3. Branch information: investments, turnovers and number of companies

16


OUT OF CONTROL?

The responders indicate that the CPI figures and

in the CPI for the period January 2008- May 2009 are presented here:

Year

Jan

Feb

March

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2008

1.8%

0.4%

1.8%

3.6%

1.5%

2.4%

1.4%

1.2%

0.1%

-0.2%

-3.2%

-1.5%

2009

0.3%

-1.0%

0.1%

-0.1%

-1.0%


17

3.3.

Drs. A. Coffeng: “Measuring is knowing and guessing is missing”

Inflatiespook blijft ronddwalen

4 .0 % 3 .0 %

21/04/2009

2 .0 % 1 .0 % 0 .0 % -1 .0 %

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1

2

3

4

5

-2 .0 % -3 .0 % -4 .0 %

3.4.

Ing. O. dos Ramos (VSB/SBF): “Statistics, Important for the Business Sector?”

3.4. Ing. O. dos Ramos (VSB/SBF): “Statistics, Important for the Business Sector?”

Paramaribo - Het lukt de monetaire autoriteiten maar niet om het inflatiespook in de fles te krijgen. Opnieuw blijken kosten voor levensonderhoud omhoog te zijn geschoten. Zo is het Consumenten Prijsindexcijfer (CPI) voor maart met 4,5 procent gestegen ten opzichte van maart 2008, heeft het Algemeen Bureau voor de Statistiek (ABS) uitgerekend.

Since October 2008 there is an almost constant

+25%/year proved to be unfeasible. Targets may

deflation. But what do you read in the newspa-

be ambitious, but should still be realistic.

per? The research on tourist arrivals was painstakIn April 2009 the prices were 0,8% higher than last

ing. Before 2004 only the arrival figures via the

year. In May they were even 1,7% lower than last

J.A.Pengel Luchthaven (JAP) and Niew Nickerie

Despite the fact that the speaker had very limited

What do the market wants? – What is the size of

year. Since 1980 only 16 times it happened that

came from the GBS. After that more extensive

preparation time he could consult some people

the market? - Which groups are relevant and how

in a month the price level was lower than the year

Statistics came from the Stichting Tourism Suri-

on the importance of Statistics for the Business

big is each group? - How big was the import in

before. The last time was in November 1992.

name (STS). But: …… the end of March 2009

sector and the usefulness of Statistics as tool in

the recent past?

was the last publication over month November

the management of companies.

Conclusion: Good Statistics deserve good

2007. That of December 2007 is published in

comments.

April 2009. This backlog is unacceptable !

RESEARCH ON THE DEVELOPMENT

Tourism is mentioned in the MOP as priority sector.

OF THE TOURISM SECTOR

But: … during large parts of 2009 no embarkation cards were supplied at the J.A. Pengel Airport,

He concludes that no single private business can

historic data, the movement of the prices and

prosper:

the trends in the behavior of the market. The

• without planning – which product/service to

data needs to be studied/ evaluated to develop

supply?

specific solutions for specific groups. The

• without marketing – what do the client wants,

challenge is to find answers in statistical data and

He addressed 2 quotations [quotes] from the

both on arrival and departure. Result: over 2009

MOP 2006-2011: “Tourism is a priority sector”

there will not be a complete data set available. This

and “The growth of the amount of tourists in the

will make a good evaluation of the sector contribu-

first half year of 2005 was 22%”. This growth fig-

tion for 2009 impossible. We will not be able to

Dos Ramos emphasizes the importance of

lacking and also not up to date. The fast changes

ure is used as basis for the planning of the future,

measure the impact of the world economic crisis

good market research but also of the economic

(dynamics of the market) are often not included.

and they formulated as target: an annual growth

on the tourism sector.

situation. Some things one cannot hear, smell

The publications are not accessible (e.g. via

or feel but you have to measure it. “Measuring

internet). As a result there is no wide-spread use

of 25%. This implies an increase with 95% in

18

For the Business sector planning is important:

how much – volume of the demand;

to draw conclusions.

• without evaluation of the economic situation. Statistics for the Business sector are frequently

3 years. Very ambitious. But: …more in-depth

Conclusion: The GBS is doing a good job. They

is Knowing”. We need the right measuring

of Statistics. Some individuals are questioning

analyses learns that the growth in the period

have much more than one may think, but they

instruments.

the usefulness of the instrument.

before 2004 was only 7%. The recorded growth

must give more publicity to the availability of Sta-

in the first half of 2005 (22%) was exceptional.

tistics. The information on their website is also

One can more specific anticipate on the segments

Companies are frequently not supplying or

Not a good base for extrapolation. This target of

insufficient.

in the market and anticipate on fast changes.

sometimes even incorrect figures. There is a



19

3.4.

Ing. O. dos Ramos (VSB/SBF): “Statistics, Important for the Business Sector?”

4

Plenary discussion

lack of trust because it is not clear what is done

1. The question of Mr. Akiemboto of Rosebel

with the information. One has no guarantee for

Goldmines was answered by Mr. Sno. He con-

confidentiality.

cludes that even though Statistics and historic data are both based on the truth and must be

The speaker poses the following proposals:

substantiated, there are clear differences. Statis-

• Formulate a confidentiality protocol to be-

tics must be timely and punctual. Some Statistics

come a law

are short term indicators. History comes later

• More dialogue with the Business sector/

and is possibly less objective.

-organisations. • Determine the statistical needs.

2. On the cooperation of the GBS with other

problem. Today the Informal activities are in the

• Make Statistics more Internet friendly.

education institutes and students Mr. Sno ad-

context of the larger companies. On the ques-

• Introduce subscriptions for Statistics.

mits that with students and consultants there is

tion on what the government has done against

• Start awareness campagne.

no structural cooperation. There is a cooperation

subcontracting in Suriname Mr. Menke responds

• Include commercial services.

with other institutes, especially for the MDG re-

that the labour unions have not responded ad-

porting.

equately.

3. Mr. Menke proposes to improve the quality of

6. The suggestion of Mr. Man A Hing to provide

the surveys. Additional research is needed, and

every citizen with a fiscal number (SOFI) from

a definitive cost estimate for research without

the 16th year is supported by Mr. Sno, but that

proxies. The key question is “are we willing to

the GBS has not much to do with, except for the

pay for it”?

reporting on aggregated information.

4. Mr. Man A Hing concludes that according to

7. Mr. Ameerali responds to the statement “a

the Menke research about 50% of the respond-

mountain of money” which the SBF would have

ents works informal/ hustle and evades taxes.

gives a wrong signal. Money is not always the

These people are consuming the services from

problem. The Business sector is not cooperative

the government on the account of the taxpayers.

in providing information that is no money prob-

Mr. Menke reacts by saying that the Informal sec-

lem. The non-respondents frequently do not come

tor is close to all of us. Most of us employ maids

to seminars. He suggests to explain to the warung

and/or gardeners. We pay them a low salary and

holders what tangible benefits they can obtain

no taxes are paid. Some things are allowed be-

from Statistics. Mr. Sno insists that also warung

cause of political reasons.

holders have a policy. They also have an interest in specific data. Apart from supplier they are also

20


5. Mr. Man A Hing postulates that the registra-

user of data. Also the government will than realize

tion is important, not so much the payment of

the importance of that subsector, which is not in

taxes. Mr. Menke responds that formalization

the formal figures. The law makes the response

goes with the same kind of problems (e.g. or-

mandatory, but it is better to let him see his own

ganization of taxi). But that is not the core of the

interest as well as the general interest.


21

4

Plenary discussion

5 Results Workinggroup discussions

8. Mr. Menke indicates that the research meth-

are not providing those institutes with the tools

The 4 topics for the working groups were formulated as follows:

od is: stimulus–response. The surveyor is seen

(“open hands which are never filled”). Mr. Cof-

as “lanti”[ government], which in most cases

feng states that it is GBS who is the only official

1. What are the concrete macro-data needs of the Business sector?

has a negative association, especially due to the

responsible organization for the data. Thus GBS

fear for the tax office. As an example he refers

should be addressed on the absence of the Sta-

to the MICS 2000 research, where initially they

tistics on tourist arrivals. It is not to point fingers,

had a major problem because the surveyors were

but the problem has to be resolved. Too many

wearing a government shirt. This was resolved by

urgent letters have already been sent.

2. Which methods and techniques can be applied to increase and improve the response? 3. Which measures should be taken to quantify the Informal sector better? 4. Which methods and techniques can be applied to improve the availability of Statistics?

putting a big Smile on the shirt. Mr. Sno adds that not all “lanti” is negatively associated. The logo

11. On the question of Mr. Refos what happened

on the pick-ups of GBS frequently works posi-

with the Tourism study Mr. Coffeng replied that

tive. Only with the companies this is a problem.

for the finalization of the report he is awaiting the report of the seminar where he presented the

9. On the question of Mr. Man A Hing which sanc-

tourist unfriendly visa-procedure. After that the

tion possibilities the GBS has Mr. Sno responds that

report goes to the owner.

the GBS sanctions are in the Staatsbesluit 2002/97. Article 8 protects the respondent and article 11

12. Mr. Refos is of the opinion that the institutes

sanctions both, those who refuse to respond and

that do not function could better be closed. Peo-

those who breach the confidentiality clauses.

ple complain about the Business sector, but the forms are lengthy and complex which discourage

22

10. According to Mr. Bradley of STS Mr. Coffeng

the response. Mr. Sno reacts by stressing that the

touched upon a weak spot. STS is working on it

smaller companies may have problems with cer-

but they are depending on other institutes, which

tain forms, but not the larger ones. GBS is pub-

have logistic and financial problems (including

lishing aggregated data, which makes it impos-

data–entry and analysis problems). Policymakers

sible to trace individual persons or companies.



23

5.1.

Working group 1: What are the concrete macro-data needs of the Business sector?

5.1. Working group 1: What are the concrete macro-data needs of the Business sector? 1. Analyses/Constraints:

among other things on the number and composition of workers in a company, the turnover, the wage development, the contribution of the bauxite sector to GDP. • Statistics on worked hours by business and of the total economy are not available. • All economic data must be provided by sector.

5.2. Working group 2: Which methods and techniques can be applied to increase and improve the response?

• Set up a working group responsible for the establishment of a Meta databank (where is

• Insufficient information and data available:

5.2. Working group 2: Which methods and techniques can be applied to increase and improve the response?

1. Analyses/ Constraints:

2. Recommendations for improvement:

• Limited information provision on various

• Both data collectors and data suppliers must

the information available). • Regular dialogue between the Business sector and GBS to exchange the needs. • GBS must be keen to handle information confidentially. • Formulate media awareness programmes by GBS. • Formulate awareness programmes also by other statistics providing institutes.

• There must be a two-way direction com-

levels for use of data by GBS. • Lack of Trust by the respondent.

In the question round it is concluded that there

macro-economic data.

is not enough information available, not only

• Better feedback.

• Knowledge of the target group.

• Methods and techniques must be adjusted

• Insufficient coordination and institutional cooperation. • Insufficient integration in the primary educa• Respondent does not feel obliged to provide data.

cooperation. countant statement to report (Statistics). • Convince respondents of their own interests.

• Internal weaknesses in the follow-up of the

by the GBS but also by the various providers of

of small entrepreneurs in Brokopondo.

data. Recommended is an awareness campaign

• What is the available labour potential in the

in the field. Beside the legal obligation, the GBS

• Timing of the research.

various districts, for example in Brokopondo.

should convince the companies that their need

• Response burden.

• GBS has some data only of Paramaribo and

for confidentiality is guaranteed, to increase their

• Limited resources.

willingness to cooperate.

to the target groups. • Strengthening coordination and institutional • Provide assistance to research, attach ac-

• Support to obtain information on the number

Nickerie.

(internet).

• Limited feedback.

tion.

munication between institutes who provide

make use of communication techniques

questionnaire.

Win-Win situation. • Create an interactive relation with the various target groups. In the question round the question whether to start already at the primary education, is answered positively.

2. Recommendations for change: • To make a sector scan. • To put a centralized databank with for example, figures about working population, numbers of students graduated, etc. • The Ministry of ATM is working on a Labour Market Information databank: vacancies, education levels. • Formulate a general definition for the middlesized and small companies. • Make a subdivision of middle-sized companies by sector. 24



25

5.3.

Working group 3: Which measures should be taken to quantify the Informal sector better?

5.3.

Working group 3: Which measures should be taken to quantify the Informal sector better?

1. Analyses/constraints:

In the Question round there are some doubts on

5.4. Working group 4: Which methods and techniques can be applied to improve the availability of Statistics?

5.4. Working group 4: Which methods and techniques can be applied to improve the availability of Statistics? 1. Analyses/Constraints:

the feasibility of introducing a fiscal number in the

• Training of front desk personnel and stricter selection procedures for front desk person-

The proxy method is not adequate for the Infor-

interior. It is recommended to start with raising the

• Limited information on the internet.

nel at GBS, including sympathetic/ client

mal sector; this must be abandoned. The conse-

awareness first.

• Low awareness (ignorance on statistics).

friendly/ knowledgeable persons.

• Limited expertise at front desk GBS.

quence will be a higher research budget, which means that we must make more money avail-

In the discussion the “double job” is questioned. Do

• Issue of confidentiality.

able.

we mean the informal and not registered second job?.

• The skills of the journalists to translate the

In response it was stated that some people have 3 jobs but all registered and often taxes are paid. Ms. 2. Recommendations for improvement:

Y. Gorisson (trade unions) indicates that the people should be better paid in their normal (first) job. The

• Introduce a fiscal number by the Tax Depart-

low wages create the market for the second job.

ment of the Ministry of Finance. • Modify the law on GBS; introduce sanctions

It is stated that multiple jobs is no problem as long

for respondents who refuse to provide infor-

as people pay their taxes. SOFI can solve this. Ms. S.

mation, possibly via Special courts. Shorten-

Burleson indicates that the problem is the progressive

ing the bureaucratic lines.

tax system and she proposes to change the Tax

Statistics for the larger public are deficient. • the hierarchic structure is too complex to find the information.

• Apply the existing legislation, and monitor its adherence. The availability of data and its reliability are warranted in the law. To apply the law the bureaucratic hurdles has to be resolved.

• the speed at which information becomes available.

• SBC must work in cooperation with GBS on

• Laws and regulations on Statistics.

capacity building of journalists and sanction

• registration of statistical ‘bodies’.

those who are publishing wrong data. • Search for more channels to obtain informa-

2. Recommendations:

tion.

• Take the second job out of the taboo/illegal

laws. The shortage of skilled workers necessitates

sphere, but attach restrictions and sanc-

a “double” job. Moreover the Government also

• Regularly updating of website, list the sourc-

• Place statistics on the website of the GBS

tions.

stimulates the hiding of the 2nd job. For example: For

es and applied techniques in information

with links to commercialize the website, by

• Structure a better cooperation between the

the financing of the low Income shelter programme

gathering and clearly indicate which data

introducing a subscription.

most important institutes (GBS, Visserijdi-

the maximum income levels to qualify stimulate the

are readily available. It is important to high-

enst, ATM, etc).

hiding of the additional incomes.

light that the supply of information to GBS is

In the Question round the lack of expertise

based on existing legislation.

to translate/popularize Statistics and make it

• Improve the exchange of available information between the various institutes with the GBS in the lead (Protocol for the collection and disclosure of information).

understandable is highlighted. There is need for • Start awareness campaign, explain clearly what Statistics are and what GBS does. In-

fast information. They support the proposal to start a subscription for regular users.

clude also short articles in the newspapers as well as information dissemination via the schools.

26



27

6 Evaluation by the participants

7

Summary and Conclusions Chairman

At the end of the Seminar the participants are asked to fill in the Evaluation form. This is of importance

The chairman memorizes that after the introduc-

Prof. Menke positions the Informal sector in the

to provide the organisation the necessary feed-back on the appreciation of the various aspects of this

tion by director Isselt, who a.o. presented the

frame of the global restructuring, whereby the

Seminar. Furthermore the ideas of the participants on the need for eventual follow-up activities were

objectives SBC formulated for this seminar, SBF

competitiveness is becoming more important.

requested. A summary of the responses is presented in Annex 3.

Chairman Doekhie concludes that the awareness

He addresses the phenomena of subcontracting

in the Business sector of the importance of Good

especially in the larger (transnational) companies

Statistics is low. We have to convince our com-

a.o. to depress labour costs. He also discussed

panies of the importance to cooperate in the data

the survey method and its limitations, but

gathering. He introduces the slogan “guessing

immediately highlights what the additional costs

is missing”.

are for a more reliable figure.

Minister van Ravenswaay who is responsible

Consultant Coffeng added to his original title

for Statistics, also stresses the importance of

“measuring is knowing” on the suggestion of Mr.

Good statistics and reminded the audience that

Doekhie “Guessing is missing”. He stresses that

they started with a national strategic plan for

apart from the importance of Good Statistics, these

the development of the Statistics institutes in

also deserve good comments. He compliments

Suriname, including the capacity strengthening

the GBS with the Good work, unfortunately this

of the GBS.

is not always covered adequately by the media. As an example he mentioned the Headlines on

Director Sno indicates his happiness with the

the latest CPI release. He also addressed the

excellent timing of the seminar. His approach is

problems with tourism data, which triggers a

that statistics should not only be in line with the

heated discussion. In any case the STS must be

Surinamese laws but also with the international

allowed to produce timely and reliable tourism

standards

He

data. He also memorises to which errors a wrong

informs the audience that Statistical bureaus

interpretation of figures can lead, with the example

are internationally obliged the inappropriate use

of the MOP leading to dream annual growth

of Statistics. He also stresses that people are

figures of 25%, due to incorrect premises.

(including

discretion

etc.).

making use of the GBS information and that the

28


response from the public in data collection is

Despite the short preparation time Board

reasonable. He concludes that there is a positive

member dos Ramos managed to organize a quick

correlation between the companies who make

consultation with members of the private sector.

use of statistics and their gross profit.

He arrived at the conclusion that the Business


29

7

Summary and Conclusions chairman

8 Follow-Up

sector has to formulate better what statistics they

Mr. E. Isselt is pleased that we started on time and we could also finish on time. He thanks the

exactly expect. He stresses the importance of

participants for their lively and supportive contribution as well as the good spirit they have showed. He

good market research but also of the economic

also thanks the Presenters and the chairman. With regards to the follow-up he confirmed that there will

situation. Some trends you cannot feel, these

be a complete report of this seminar, which will be made available to all participants at no cost.

have to measured. One can cater more specific to the specific needs of segments in the market and

With the full cooperation of the GBS and the presenters we have presented today a clear example

respond to the fast changes. The GBS must do

of the Public- Private dialogue. This example will be continued by the partners in the interest of the

its utmost to create more trust with the Business

sustainable development of Suriname.

sector. In 2 rounds a lively plenary discussion was allowed. This was followed up by an in-depth working group discussion in 4 working groups which were assigned to 4 specifically selected topics. These 4 groups reported their findings to the plenary, which triggered a set of questions and comments. The chairman concludes that we have completed a fruitful discussion day. He thanks the participants for the several point for improvement that have been identified. There is a lot of work to do. The Report will be available within 2 weeks.

30



31

Annexes

Annex 1: Seminar Agenda Goede Statistieken voor een Duurzame Ontwikkeling van Suriname Agenda: Dagvoorzitter:

ANNEX 1: Seminar Agenda

Ir. Winston Ramautarsing

08.30 – 09.00 uur: Registratie (drinks/snack) 09.00 – 09.30 uur: Openingssessie • Introductie door Ir. Ernie Isselt, directeur SBC • Welkomstwoord door Ing. Rahid Doekhie, voorzitter SBF

ANNEX 2: Power-point Presentations

• Openingstoespraak door Dr. Ricardo van Ravenswaay, minister van Planning en Ontwikkelingssamenwerking

ANNEX 3: Responses Satisfactory survey

09.30 – 10.15 uur: Drs. Iwan Sno (directeur ABS) “Het belang van goede statistieken” 10.15 – 11.00 uur: Prof. Dr. Jack Menke (voorzitter SWI) “Conceptuele en methodologische problemen bij Surveyonderzoek: de informele economie”

ANNEX 4: List of participants

11.00 – 11.15 uur: Koffiepauze 11.15 – 12.00 uur: Drs. Ad Coffeng (consultant) “Meten is Weten en Gissen is missen” 12.00 – 12.45 uur: Ing. Orlando Dos Ramos (vertegenwoordiger bedrijfsleven) “De betekenis van goede statistieken voor het Surinaams Bedrijfsleven” 12.45 – 14.00 uur: Discussie in werkgroepen 14.00 – 14.45 uur: Plenaire discussie, conclusies en aanbevelingen 14.45 – 15.00 uur: Dankwoord en sluiting 15.00 – 15.30 uur: Lunch

32



33

Annex 2: Power-point Presentations - Drs. I. Sno

Annex 2: Power-point Presentations

HET BELANG VAN GOEDE STATISTIEKEN (SBF-ABS SEMINAR)

IWAN A. SNO – Directeur ABS 26 juni 2009 - Courtyard by Mariott (Paramaribo - Suriname)

Presentatie Drs. I. Sno: “Het belang van Goede Statistieken”

Indeling van de Presentatie • • • • • • 34


Statistiek, Statistieken en de informatiepiramide Kenmerken van goede statistieken en de “Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics” De Surinaamse situatie: Beschikbaarheid (geselecteerde ABS statistieken) De Surinaamse situatie: Gebruik van Statistieken (info verzoeken) en Bedrijfsresultaat De Surinaamse situatie: Response cijfers (Huishoudens versus bedrijven) en kosten Conclusies en slotopmerkingen Seminar Good Statistics for a Sustainable Development of Suriname

2

35



STATISTIEK EN STATISTIEKEN

DE INFORMATIEPIRAMIDE-2

• Statistiek is de wetenschap die zich bezighoudt met het verzamelen, verwerken, analyseren, interpreteren en overzichtelijk presenteren van gegevens. • Statistieken zijn het resultaat van wetenschappelijk verantwoord uitgevoerde onderzoeksactiviteiten (dataverzameling, dataverwerking, data analyses, proces evaluatie en data verspreiding)

• Ad 1- Ruwe data die ligt bij diverse bronnen (bv bij huishoudens, bedrijven, meteorologische stations) en is in die vorm niet echt bruikbaar. • Ad-2 Statistieken (bijvoorbeeld verwerkt in kruistabellen en grafieken) van bijvoorbeeld lonen en prijzen en gemiddelde inkomens.

3

5



• Ad-3: Het Bruto Binnenlands Product, per capita als indicator voor welvaart (niet voor welzijn!) Ook het Consumenten prijsindexcijfer is een indicator en wel voor inflatie! Indicatoren zijn statistieken die specifiek van belang zijn voor bepaalde beleidsgebieden en die aangeven of het beleid al dan niet succesvol kan worden genoemd.

4Indices

Ss

3- Indicators

2- Statistieken

1- Ruwe data

6

4

36



37




KENMERKEN VAN GOEDE STATISTIEKEN-2

• Ad 4- Bijvoorbeeld de HDI (Human Development Index) van de UNDP, waarbij (i) Levensduur (gemeten met levensverwachting bij de geboorte), (ii)Verworvenheden op onderwijsgebied (gemeten met volwassen alfabetiseringsgraad en ingeschreven leerlingen), alsook (iii) levensstandaard (gemeten met het reële BBP per capita) worden gecombineerd in 1 cijfer. Indices moeten vergelijkingen in tijd en ruimte vergemakkelijken. Indices worden vaak als controversieel beschouwd, vanwege de keuze van de variabelen (samenstellende indicatoren) en van de gewichten!

•

Timeliness & Punctuality (actualiteit, ofwel zo snel mogelijk na de dataverzameling beschikbaar zijn en punctualiteit; kom inderdaad uit wanneer je hebt toegezegd uit te komen), we willen statistieken en geen geschiedeniscijfers. De GDDS (waar we later eventueel op terugkomen) schrijft voor BBP en BNP schattingen voor 6 tot 9 maanden. Suriname haalt 6½ tot 7 maanden (we komen medio of eind juli uit). Voor CPI wordt 4-8 weken voorgeschreven en Suriname haalt 3 weken!

•

Toegankelijk: We hebben niks aan statistieken die door een statistiekproducent (bijvoorbeeld: ABS, CBB, BOG, Centrale Bank) worden geproduceerd, maar – met inachtneming van de Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics – niet toegankelijk zijn voor 9 gebruikers.

7


KENMERKEN VAN GOEDE STATISTIEKEN-1 • •

Relevant (Voor de gebruikers, want we hebben niks aan statistieken waar geen of heel weinig vraag naar is. Accuraat Statistieken moeten met een bepaalde nauwkeurigheid en betrouwbaarheid worden samengesteld), ze moeten dus steeds getoetst worden en onder meer op plausibiliteit worden gecheckt. In dit kader mogen we met u delen dat een van onze motto’s is “No data is better than bad data”, wat ons soms (vooral door het IMF) niet in dank wordt afgenomen. Overigens wordt voor accuratesse vaak uitgegaan van een bepaald onderliggend model!

•

•

Vergelijkbaar. Dit aspect heeft te maken met het gebruik van internationaal aanvaardbare principes, richtlijnen en standaarden. Bijv. SNA (68, 93 of 2008) voor Nationale Rekeningen. Samenhangend. We willen graag cijfers die niet met elkaar in conflict zijn. Let wel dit kenmerk betekent niet dat er geen verschillen mogen zijn tussen twee reeksen die geacht worden hetzelfde verschijnsel te meten. Er zullen verschillen zijn tussen, maar “reconciliation” moet mogelijk zijn, met andere woorden er moet op een plausibele en sluitende manier van de ene naar de andere reeks overgestapt kunnen worden. (De reeksen moeten met elkaar verzoend kunnen worden) 10

8

38



39

•




“FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS”

Compleet. Het geheel van statistieken op een bepaald gebied moet inderdaad alle verschijnselen die men wenst te meten dekken. Bijvoorbeeld als men in de Nationale Rekeningen alle accounts samenstelt (wat we nog lang niet doen in Suriname), moet men de gehele economie dekken. (Simpelweg: wat is beschikbaar versus wat zou beschikbaar moeten zijn?)

P-1: (Relevance, Impartiality and Equal Access) • “Official statistics provide an indispensable element in the information system of a democratic society, serving Government, the economy and the public with data about the economic, demographic, social and environmental situation. To this end, official statistics that meet the test of practical utility are to be compiled and made available on an impartial basis by official statistical agencies to honour citizens’ entitlement to public information” (FPOS, UNSC 1994)

11

13

• P-2 (Professional Standards and Ethics) “To retain trust in Official Statistics, the statistical agencies need to decide according to strictly professional considerations, including scientific principles and professional ethics, on the methods and procedures for the collection, processing, storage and presentation of statistical data.” • P-3 (Accountability and Transparency) “To facilitate a correct interpretation of the data the statistical agencies are to present information according to scientific standards on the sources, methods and procedures of statistics”

“FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS” We citeren de United Nations: • “Statistics are not end-products – they are intermediate products to be used in decisionmaking and research and for the purpose of enlightenment in general” • “Official statistical Information is an essential basis for development in the economic, demographic, social and environmental fields and for mutual knowledge and trade among the states and peoples of the world” (FPOS, UNSC 1994, pre amble)

14

12

40



41



P-4 (Prevention of Misuse) • “The statistical agencies are entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics” (Zoals door Willem de Vries, enige tijd Waarnemend Directeur van de Statistical Commission aangegeven, staat er “hebben het recht”, maar moet de interpretatie zijn “zijn verplicht” P-5 (Cost-Effectiveness) P-6 (Confidentiality • “Individual data collected by statistical agencies for statistical compilation, whether they refer to natural or legal persons, are to be strictly confidential and used exclusively for statistical purposes.

HET BELANG VAN GOEDE STATISTIEKEN-1 • Statistieken zijn van belang (ze zijn zelfs onmisbaar), • voor Beleidsvoorbereiding en Planning (Upstream gebruik genoemd); • voor het Monitoren en Evalueren van Beleid en Planning (Downstream gebruik genoemd) en • voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Research).

15

• P-7 (Legislation) • P-8 (National Coordination) • “Coordination among statistical agencies within countries is essential to achieve consistency and efficiency in the statistical system” • P-9 (International Standards) • “The use by statistical agencies in each country of international concepts, classifications and methods promotes the consistency and efficiency of statistical systems at all official levels”. • P-10 (International Cooperation)

17

HET BELANG VAN GOEDE STATISTIEKEN-2 • Tegenwoordig moeten we eraan toevoegen: voor deelname aan bepaalde internationale initiatieven zoals de GDDS van het IMF voor voorbereiding en monitoren van regionale integratie, als belangrijke input voor de ratings die door internationale rating Agentschappen (Moody’s, Standard & Poors, Fitch) worden geproduceerd en voor het sluiten van leningen zonder onderpand (Deze twee horen misschien thuis bij Beleid, maar verdienen o.i. een afzonderlijke vermelding). Voorts: “Good Statistics are a core component of Good Governance” (PARIS-21) 18

16

42



43



HET BELANG:

HET BELANG VOOR:

• (A) Voor Beleid en Planning • Zonder adequate statistieken is het niet mogelijk om te plannen, beleid voor te bereiden en bereid te monitoren. Het is goed om te stellen dat het streven gericht is op een zo laag mogelijke inflatie binnen de kortst mogelijke tijd, maar men is pas transparant en ook aanspreekbaar als het wordt gekwantificeerd: bijvoorbeeld binnen 2 jaar moet de jaareinde inflatie ten hoogste 8% bedragen en moet de jaargemiddelde inflatie minder dan 10% zijn!

• Gebruik door Rating Agentschappen • Het wordt bekend verondersteld dat de ratings van belang zijn om te bepalen of men in aanmerking komt voor een internationale lening en zo ja onder welke condities geleend kan worden. Hoe hoger de rating, hoe gunstiger de condities, het IMF poogt dan ook te bevorderen dat lidlanden promoveren van GDDS naar SDDS.

19

21

HET BELANG VOOR:

HET BELANG VOOR: • Deelname aan de General Data Dissemination System van het IMF (als middel!)

• “The system’s purpose is to guide member countries in the provision to the public of comprehensive, timely, accessible, and reliable economic and financial statistics in a world of increasing economic and financial integration”. • “Dissemination of reliable, comprehensive, and timely economic and financial data is essential to the transparency of macro-economic performance and policy.”

• Regionale Integratie (Herbij is de focus op Harmonisatie van Statistieken en convergentiecriteria, denk aan CARICOM en EU) • Research (Hier gaan we wegens tijdsdruk en arbeidsverdeling niet op in) 22

20

44



45



DE SURINAAMSE SITUATIE: BESCHIKBAARHEID (geselecteerde ABS data)

DE SURINAAMSE SITUATIE: GEBRUIK VAN STATISTIEKEN EN BEDRIJFSRESULTAAT

23

25



• Op het ABS komen maandelijks tussen de 80 en 220 (met een gemiddelde van 130) schriftelijke verzoeken om informatie binnen. Per jaar (2005-2008) liggen de schriftelijke informatieverzoeken grofweg tussen de 1260 en 1725. Let wel het totale aantal verzoeken (schriftelijk, plus telefonisch, plus mondeling) bedraagt jaarlijks meer dan 2000. 26

24

46



47




DE SURINAAMSE SITUATIE: RESPONSE (HUISHOUDENS versus BEDRIJVEN) • Ofschoon voor wat betreft schattingen van grootheden uit de Nationale Rekeningen algemeen geaccepteerd is dat die op een directe wijze (survey of census data óf uit administratieve bestanden) of op indirecte wijze (extrapolatie van basis data met behulp van indicatoren) kan geschieden, kan de respons situatie van bedrijven echter zonder meer erbarmelijk worden genoemd, want die zijn minder dan de resultaten van de ontwikkelde landen (die ook niet zijn om over naar huis te schrijven): in Canada rond de 40%, in de USA rond de 55%.

27

DE SURINAAMSE SITUATIE: RESPONSE (HUISHOUDENS versus BEDRIJVEN)

29

DE SURINAAMSE SITUATIE: RESPONSE (HUISHOUDENS versus BEDRIJVEN)

• Voor wat betreft Suriname kunnen we aangeven dat buiten sector 4 (Electricity, Gas and Water), waarin alle bedrijven responderen (dus 100%), de response in de overige sectoren ligt tussen de 20% en 71%. (Het gemiddelde zullen wij u onthouden, maar dat moet veel beter!)

30

28

48



49



Kosten van geselecteerde onderzoekingen (face-to-face)

CONCLUSIES EN SLOTOPMERKINGEN

• Het reguliere huishoudonderzoek uitgevoerd in Paramaribo en Wanica (1000-1500 huishoudens per kwartaal) kost ons circa: 100,000 USD per jaar (populatiedekking circa 68%) • Een willekeurig landelijk huishoudonderzoek (bijvoorbeeld zoals MICS) bij circa 6,000 huishoudens, waarbij er sprake is van maximaal 2 herbezoeken van een huishouden kost circa 250,000 USD in Suriname. (De populatie dekking 100%, maar voor de additionele 32% dekking moet 150,000 USD worden betaald. Willen / kunnen we dat opbrengen?) • Het Budgetonderzoek uitgevoerd over 6 districten (Paramaribo, Wanica, Nickerie, Coronie, Saramacca en Commewijne) heeft circa 260,000 USD gekost. Als een dergelijk onderzoek landelijk zou zijn uitgevoerd zouden de kosten meer dan verdubbeld zijn (circa 543,000)!

• Adequate Statistieken zijn van belang voor Beleid en Planning in de ruimste zin des woords, voor Research, maar ook voor gebruik door de gemiddelde burger die om wat voor reden dan ook informatie nodig heeft. • Zonder adequate statistieken kan men geen beleid voorbereiden en ook niet de uitvoering monitoren. • Zonder adequate statistieken kan men niet plannen en zonder plannen kan men niet op een gestructureerde manier zijn eigen toekomst richting pogen te geven!

31

Kosten van geselecteerde onderzoekingen (mail surveys)

33

CONCLUSIES EN SLOTOPMERKINGEN • Alle stakeholders (Statistiekproducenten, Overheid, Bedrijfsleven, Vakbeweging, Burgerij in het Algemeen) zijn verantwoordelijk voor de totstandkoming van goede statistieken • Bedrijven die adequaat gebruik maken van goede statistieken presteren gemiddeld beter dan bedrijven die dat niet doen.

Mail out –Mail back surveys (bij bedrijven) • Deze surveys zijn veel goedkoper, maar de response resultaten zijn er ook naar. Een hoofdzakelijk schriftelijk landelijk uitgevoerd bedrijfsonderzoek kost gemiddeld circa 115,000 USD per jaar. •

34

32

50



51



CONCLUSIES EN SLOTOPMERKINGEN • Good Statistics are not cheap and in many countries statistical systems are underfunded and under-performing. Unless the systems are improved the lack of good quality statistics will constrain economic and social development!

Presentatie 35

Prof. Dr. J. Menke: “Conceptuele en methodologische problemen bij

CONCLUSIES EN SLOTOPMERKINGEN

surveyonderzoek: de Informele Economie”

• Evidence-based decision-making is a universally recognized paradigm of efficient management of economic and social affairs and of overall effective governing of societies today. • Ooit zal statistisch denken voor ons allen minstens even belangrijk zijn als het vermogen tot lezen en schrijven! • DANK U 36

52



53

Annex 2: Power-point Presentations - Prof. Dr. J. Menke

Conceptuele en Methodologische problemen bij surveyonderzoek: de Informele Economie Jack Menke


Topics

Seminar

THE VALUE OF STATISTICS FOR THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SURINAME SURINAME

Surveymethode Wat is de Informele economie? Politiek-economische aspecten informele Economie Conceptuele Issues Informele economie Omvang informele werkgelegenheid Methodologische problemen Conclusies & mogelijke oplossingen

Friday 26 June 2009, Hotel MarriottMarriott-Courtyard Paramaribo

7/26/2009

7/26/2009

Doel

Surveymethode

Informatie en inzicht geven in de problemen van survey onderzoek en mogelijke oplossingen voor de problemen

Dataverzameling ogv vele cases en variabelen op een tijdstip Doel: Doel: verschijnselen beschrijven, beschrijven, en vooral schattingen of verbanden vaststellen Zeer Populair als gevolg van de enorme technische vooruitgang en de bruikbaarheid voor beleid, theorievorming en moderne meervariabelen statistische analyse Surveys brengen vooral in Derde Wereld samenlevingen conceptuele, meettechnische en ideologische complicaties met zich mee

7/26/2009

54



55



De Informele Economie: concept en methode

Misvattingen over de informele economie

Vaak uiteenlopende schattingen binnen een en dezelfde samenleving (bijv Belgie 4% - 20 %)

Dit moet vaak worden toegeschreven aan:

¾ ¾

7/26/2009

Om de informele economie beter te begrijpen:

Wat is de Informele Economie?

Economie waar institutionele regelingen in de legale en sociale sfeer ontbreken/ zwak zijn & officiele regelinggeving wordt ontdoken De informele economie vloeit voort uit de aard van de interventie door de staat: bepalend voor verschillen in tijd en ruimte

Geen exotische economische sector met uitsluitend overlevingsactiviteiten van hosselaars /arme huishoudens

Informaliteit snijdt dwars door type bedrijf en omvang (ook in grote formele bedrijven)

Verschuivende grenzen van informaliteit

7/26/2009

7/26/2009

56

Belastingontduikers

het gekozen concept (definitieverschillen) en/ of methode om tot de schatting te komen

7/26/2009

Exotische sector met overlevingsactiviteiten van hosselaars



57



Typen economieen Politiek-economische aspecten Informele Economie

Productie & distributie proces ‘Legaal’

Eindproduct ‘Legaal’

Type Economie Formeel

‘Niet legaal’

‘Legaal’

Informeel

‘Niet legaal’ of ‘legaal’

‘Niet legaal’

Crimineel

7/26/2009

Pijlers ‘Global Restructuring’ Technologische vernieuwingen

Het Concept Informele Economie Identificatie van internationaal laagste/ efficientste kosten van materiaal & producten

Drukken arbeidskosten door o.m. informele arbeid

7/26/2009

58



59



Subcontracting

Informele economie vs informele sector

Informele economie (IE) is ruimer dan informele sector

IE omvat het totaal aan werkenden en bedrijven (en hun onderlinge productie en werkgelegenheidsrelaties) die niet voldoen aan de regelgeving binnen de economische en/ of sociale wet - en regelgeving

Informele economie verwijst naar zowel de informele sector als niet-standaard werkgelegenheids-relaties met ontoereikende arbeidscondities in de formele sector

Subcontractoring: bedrijven die zich bezig houden met core business en de overige activiteiten overlaten aan contractors/ subcontractors Doorgaans voldoen zij niet aan de regelgeving binnen de economische en/ of sociale wetgeving In Suriname groeide deze werkgelegenheidsrelatie vanaf de 80er jaren toen het grote bedrijfsleven steeds meer ging werken met het contractorsysteem

7/26/2009

Voorbeeld contractors in Mijnbouw

Niet-standaard werkgelegenheidsrelaties Drie typen vlgs 15e International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS): Self-employment A-typische arbeidscontracten met derde partij (bv. Subcontracting) Klandestiene of onzichtbare werkgever- werknemer relaties (bv. gezinswerkers of micro-bedrijven die buiten de officiële regelgeving opereren)

Multinational werkt steeds meer met contracting en subcontracting, waardoor het aantal vaste medewerkers sterk afnam. Niet- core businesses (transport van arbeiders, schoonmaak, technisch onderhoud, e.d) zijn uitbesteed aan een Amerikaans hoofd-contractorbedrijf X. hoofd-contractorbedrijf X gaat relaties aan met Surinaamse sub-contractorbedrijven die arbeiders aantrekken onder slechte arbeidsvoorwaarden. Bij formeel multinationaal bedrijf vallen ca 1.000 arbeiders onder ongeveer zes sub-contractorbedrijven.

7/26/2009

60



61



Onder-rapportage tweede baan Methodologische problemen survey informele werkgelegenheid

Slechts 2.7% vd werkzamen heeft tweede baan Dit cijfer doet vermoeden dat de onderraportage van de tweede baan nogal hoog is Analyses beperkt tot eerste baan

7/26/2009

ATM/ABS onderzoek 2006 met steekproef in zes districten in Suriname

2467 huishoudens Binnen huishoudens zijn hoofden van huishoudens en werkzamen geïdentificeerd

Registratie van de economische activiteit Boekhouding van de economische activiteit Ongevallen verzekeringsdekking

7/26/2009

7/26/2009

62

Indicatoren informaliteit



63



Werkzamen naar arbeidscategorie excl. agrarische sector

Indicatoren informaliteit naar arbeidscategorie Categorie

Indicator Registratie bedrijf

Boekhouding

Kleine zelfstandige

X

Werkgever Werknemer Onbetaalde gezinswerker*

%

Categorie Ongevallen verzekering

Werknemer particulier bedrijf

50.9

Werknemer overheid

30.3

X

Werknemer staatsbedrijf & contractors

4.3

X

X

Kleine zelfstandige

12.7

X

X

Werkgever

1.5

Weet niet- geen antwoord

0.1

X

geen indicatoren; per definitie informeel (vlgs ILO)

Procedures vaststellen informele en formele werkgelegenheid

Totaal

100.0

“Weet niet” respons op indicatoren voor informaliteit per arbeidscategorie

Indicator a) Sommering geselecteerde indicatoren voor elke arbeidscategorie arbeidscategorie b) Alle indicatoren gedichotomiseerd c) Baan is formeel indien kenmerk aanwezig is bij elke indicator d) Werkzamen overheidssector(per definitie formeel) zijn slechts in de algemene analyse meegenomen om een indruk te krijgen van de omvang van de formele werkgelegenheid. e) Werkzamen agrarische sector niet in analyse

64


Weet niet Werknemer Werkgever Selfemployed

45.4%

2.4%

6%

Registratie bedrijf

52%

15%

9.5%

Ongevallenverzekering

7.6%

NVT

NVT

Boekhouding in bedrijf


65



Formele en informele werkgelegenheid van kleine zelfstandigen, werkgevers en werknemers exclusief de centrale overheid 80%

Schatting van de informele en formele werkgelegenheid

70% 60% 50% 40%

Informeel

30%

Formeel

20%

Weet niet

10% 0%

Kleine zelfstandigen

Werkgevers

Werknemers excl. centrale overheid

Arbeidscategorieen naar Informeel en formeel excl. “weet nietniet-geen antwoord” antwoord”

Informaliteit

66

SelfSelfemployed

Werk gevers

Informeel

83.4

47.0

Werknemers excl overheid 82.6

Formeel

16.6

53.0

17.4

Totaal

100.0

100.0

100.0


Omvang totale informele en formele werkgelegenheid


67



Conclusie (1)

Schatting totale Informele & formele werkgelegenheid incl onbekend Categorie

Informeel

Formeel

Onbekend

Totaal

55.1%

11.6%

33.3%

100%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100%


73.6%

14.7%

11.8%

100%

Werkgevers

38.1%

45.2%

16.7%

100%

Totale werkgelegenheid

40.5%

39.3%

20.2%

100%

Werknemers excl. centrale overheid Werknemers overheid

Totaal abs

1102

1071

549

2722

Totale informele en formele werkgelegenheid op basis van alle arbeidscategorieën inclusief de categorie ‘onbekend’ is als volgt: van de werkzamen is 41% informeel, 39% formeel, en van 20% is niet bekend of deze formeel dan wel informeel zijn Indien ‘onbekend’ buiten de analyse blijft: van de werkzamen is 51% informeel en 49% formeel Conclusie: Informele economie is belangrijke verschaffer van werkgelegenheid met geschat aandeel van de helft vd totale werkgelegenheid buiten de landbouw

7/26/2009

Schatting totale Informele en formele werkgelegenheid, exclusief onbekend

Categorie

Informeel

Formeel

Totaal

Werknemers excl. overheid

82.6%

17.4%

100%

Werknemers overheid

0.0%

100.0%

100%


83.4%

16.6%

100%

Werkgevers

45.7%

54.3%

100%

Totale werkgelegenheid

68

50.7%

49.3%


100%

Conclusie (2)

Beperkingen onderzoeksmethode

• Indicatoren ‘Registratie’ en ‘boekhouding’ niet rechtsreeks gemeten bij best geïnformeerde onderzoekseenheid (de werkzame persoon zelf!) • Data over werkzamen vnl. via proxies vastgesteld waardoor grotere non-respons op betreffende indicatoren • Non respons onder werknemers particuliere bedrijven is veel hoger dan onder kleine zelfstandigen en werkgevers


69



Suggestie 2

Enkele suggesties

7/26/2009

De hoge onderrapportage van de tweede baan en een hoge non respons op indicatoren (de basis voor vaststellen van informaliteit) informaliteit) vormt een groot probleem. Mogelijke oplossingen: a) afschaffen ‘proxies’ proxies’ b) de hoge non respons bij particuliere werknemers op indicatoren indicatoren (registratie en boekhouding) reduceren door benodigde informatie over betreffende bedrijven in te winnen via bedrijfsregisters van van officië officiële instanties of bij de bedrijven zelf. Deze voorstellen zullen een aanzienlijke toename van de onderzoekskosten met zich meebrengen die gedragen moeten worden door alle partners . 7/26/2009

Suggestie 1

Dataverzamelingsproblemen moeten systematisch worden geïnventariseerd en opgelost.

Dit geldt in het byzonder voor kwesties die voortvloeien uit niet standaard werkgelegenheidsrelaties van de formele bedrijven met contractors

Sommige (informele) werknemers van gecontracteerde bedrijven geven waarschijnlijk ten onrechte op werkzaam te zijn bij het contracterende formeel bedrijf 7/26/2009

70

Suggestie 3

Statistieken van de informele en formele werkgelegenheid moeten periodiek door het ABS worden gepubliceerd op basis van de resultaten van het regulier huishoudonderzoek

7/26/2009



71

Annex 2: Power-point Presentations - Drs. A. Coffeng


Meten is weten. Gissen is missen. Presentatie Drs. A. Coffeng:

Goede statistieken voor een duurzame ontwikkeling van Suriname.

Meten is weten, juni 2009

Ad Coffeng

slide 0

“Meten is weten en gissen is missen.” Inhoud

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

behoefte aan statistieken: minionderzoek correcte interpretatie kerncijfers vliegen de prijzen nog steeds de pan uit? onderzoek ontwikkeling toerismesector slot


72


Ad Coffeng


slide 1

73



Inhoud De respons was:

1. behoefte aan statistieken: minionderzoek 2. 3. 4. 5.

correcte interpretatie kerncijfers vliegen de prijzen nog steeds de pan uit? onderzoek ontwikkeling toerismesector slot


Ad Coffeng

slide 2

De volgende vragen gesteld aan VES-leden (±100): – Welke statistische data zijn nodig? – Welke zijn beschikbaar? – Is de kwaliteit OK? – Welke zijn niet voorhanden, maar wel nodig.

Termijn te kort: mail verstuurd op 19 juni.


74

Ad Coffeng


slide 3

1 uit de voedingsmiddelenindustrie 1 uit de scheepvaart 2 uit de mijnbouw 1 uit de handel in transportmiddelen


Ad Coffeng

slide 4

Voldoende beschikbaar, van goede kwaliteit • CPI cijfers • Demografische data Niet beschikbaar/ onvoldoende kwaliteit 1. Arbeidsproductiviteit per sector 2. Bestedingspatroon consumenten per regio naar inkomensklasse, leeftijd en etniciteit 3. Bedrijfstakgegevens: investeringen, omzetten en aantal ondernemingen 4. Arbeidsmarktstatistieken: per bedrijfstak loonniveau per functie, vacatures 5. Importstatistieken. Meten is weten, juni 2009

Ad Coffeng


slide 5

75



Correct gebruik van statistische data: Bijvoorbeeld de bierconsumptie per capita tussen landen: in Nederland is de per capita bierconsumptie 80 liter

Twee respondenten vragen naar gedetailleerd info over omzetten van de concurrenten in de sector.

We willen dit cijfer vergelijken met de consumptie in S’me. Dat gaat niet zomaar.


Ad Coffeng

slide 6


Ad Coffeng

slide 8

Inhoud Noodzaak: rekening houden met de bevolkingsopbouw. 1. behoefte aan statistieken: minionderzoek

De bevolking van 20 jaar en ouder is in Nederland: 75% en in Suriname: 60%.

2. correcte interpretatie kerncijfers

3. vliegen de prijzen nog steeds de pan uit? 4. onderzoek ontwikkeling toerismesector 5. slot


76

Ad Coffeng


Consumptie herleiden tot bevolkingsomvang van 20 jaar en ouder!

slide 7


Ad Coffeng


slide 9

77



Inhoud vergelijking niveau’s van december

vergelijking gemiddelde jaarniveau’s

1. behoefte aan statistieken: minionderzoek 2. correcte interpretatie kerncijfers

3. vliegen de prijzen nog steeds de pan uit? 4. onderzoek ontwikkeling toerismesector 5. slot


Ad Coffeng

slide 10


Ad Coffeng

slide 12

Maandelijkse stijging van de prijsindex

Sinds jaren altijd up to date statistieken: het CPI. Elke 3e week van maand nieuwe cijfers over vorige maand. Maar wel juist verslaan.


78

Ad Coffeng


slide 11


Ad Coffeng


slide 13

79



maandelijkse verandering consumentenprijspeil

In april waren de prijzen slechts 0.8% hoger dan LY. In mei waren ze zelfs 1.7% lager dan LY.

4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

bijna constant deflatie

1.0% 0.0% -1.0%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1

2

3

4

5

En wat leest u in de krant??????? -2.0% -3.0%

2008

-4.0%


De laatste keer was dat in november 1992.

2009

Ad Coffeng

Sinds 1980 is het maar 16 keer voorgekomen dat in een maand het prijsniveau lager was dat het jaar ervoor.

slide 14


Ad Coffeng

slide 16

Dus: goede statistieken verdienen goed commentaar.

In plaats van: De prijsdaling blijft aanhouden. Meten is weten, juni 2009

80

Ad Coffeng


slide 15


Ad Coffeng


slide 17

81



Maar: ……………………

Inhoud

Nadere analyse leert: 1. behoefte aan statistieken: minionderzoek 2. correcte interpretatie kerncijfers 3. vliegen de prijzen nog steeds de pan uit?

de voortschrijdend driejaarlijkse groei stijgt gestaag tot 7% in 2004.

4. onderzoek ontwikkeling toerismesector

Groei H1 2005 (22%) was exceptioneel. Geen basis voor extrapolatie.

5. slot

Doelstelling (+25%/jr) verre van haalbaar.


Ad Coffeng

slide 18

Ad Coffeng

Toerisme is prioriteitssector

Voor 2004 cijfers van ABS van aankomsten via JAP en Nw Nickerie.

Groei aantal toeristen 1e half jaar 2005: 22% (Dit is de basis voor de planning.)

Daarna uitgebreide statistieken van STS. Maar:

Gesteld doel:

jaarlijkse (!) groei van 25%

Dwz een stijging met Zeer ambitieus.

95% in drie jaar.


slide 20

Het onderzoek naar aangekomen toeristen was een nani.

In MEERJARENONTWIKKELINGSPLAN staat:

82


Eind maart 2009 laatste publicatie van november 2007. FY 2007 gepubliceerd in april 2009. Achterstand onacceptabel!!!!!!!!

Ad Coffeng


slide 19


Ad Coffeng


slide 21

83



Toerisme wordt in MOP genoemd als prioriteitssector. Het ABS doet goed werk. Maar: Grote delen van 2009 zijn op JAP geen embarcation cards verstrekt bij vertrek en of aankomst.

Het ABS heeft veel meer dan u denkt.

Gevolg: over 2009 zullen geen volledige data beschikbaar zijn.

Het moet meer publiciteit geven aan de beschikbaarheid van statistieken.

Goede evaluatie van de sectorbijdrage voor 2009 onmogelijk.

De info op de website is veel te mager.


Ad Coffeng

slide 22


Ad Coffeng

slide 24

Inhoud

1. 2. 3. 4.

behoefte aan statistieken: minionderzoek correcte interpretatie kerncijfers vliegen de prijzen nog steeds de pan uit? onderzoek ontwikkeling toerismesector

5. slot


84

Ad Coffeng


slide 23

Vragen? Meten is weten, juni 2009

Ad Coffeng


slide 25

85


Annex 2: Power-point Presentations - Ing. O. dos Ramos (VSB/SBF)

Statistiek.... Belangrijk voor bedrijfsleven? •Wat is het belang van statistieken voor het bedrijfsleven? •Hoe bruikbaar zijn statistieken als tool bij het managen van bedrijven?

Presentatie Ing. O. dos Ramos (VSB/SBF): “Statistieken, Belangrijk voor bedrijfsleven?”

•Ing. Orlando dos Ramos (VSB/SBF)

Seminar: Statistics 26 jun 2009

1

Statistiek.... Belangrijk voor bedrijfsleven? Geen enkele private Business kan: •Zonder planning –welk product/dienst te leveren? •Zonder marketing – wat wil de klant? •Hoeveel wil de klant – volume van de vraag •Zonder evaluatie van de economische situatie

Seminar: Statistics 26 jun 2009

86



2

87



Statistiek.... Belangrijk voor bedrijfsleven?

Belemmeringen bij gebruik Statistieken •Statistieken t.b.v. bedr. leven ontbreken vaak

•Meten is Weten – meetinstrumenten

•Statistieken zijn vaak niet up to date

•wat wil de markt? - Hoe groot is de markt ?

• snelle veranderingen(dynamiek v.d. Markt)

•hoe groot was de import in recente verleden?

zijn vaak niet verwerkt • Niet toegankelijke publicatie’s (bijv. via

Nodig om te plannen

internet)

-historische gegevens -Beweging van de prijzen

•Geen breed gebruik van statistieken.

-Trends in het gedrag van de markt

•Is het instrument wel te gebruiken?

Seminar statistics 26 jun 2009

3

Statistiek.... Belangrijk voor bedrijfsleven?

Seminar statistics 26 jun 2009

5

Belemmeringen bij opmaken v. Statistieken

•Nodig om te evalueren – cijfers bestuderen •Nodig om specifieke oplossingen voor

•Bedrijven geven vaak geen/verkeerde cijfers

specifieke groepen te ontwikkelen

•Er is wantrouwen

• Welke groepen zijn er?

•onduidelijk wat er met de informatie gebeurt

•Hoe groot is elke groep?

•Geen garantie op confidentialiteit

•Antwoorden vinden in statistische gegevens

• gebrek aan vertrouwen

• conclusies trekken Seminar statistics 26 jun 2009

88


4

Seminar statistics 26 jun 2009Chair Margret Kerkhoffs-Zerp, Acting SBF


6

89


Annex 3: Responses Satisfactory survey

Voorstellen

What kind of follow up do you expect/propose

• Confidentialiteits protocol opstellen, bij wet.

Do you have any suggestion(s)

Change the law to develop and …… all the info /data

The informal sector. How to make ABS a workable institute

Non, but there was no information of the presentations.

There should be meetings held with all institutions, that are involved

The role of the private sector in the development of Suriname.

Please send invitations to the private sector; awareness can help a lot.

Based on the report of this global seminar, indepth seminar based on specific themes

Financial management of SME’s

What about a seminar, about improving our investing climate?

Awareness seminar of statistics on a lower level small/ medium sized entrepreneurs , students and scholar

What do the GBS do with your response

Private sector involvement must be invited separately to do sessions.

• bewustmakings campagne starten

After evaluation of this seminar a follow up with may be a second one and other actions to be taken as advised

What steps should be taken at the ABS

The lokations must be suitable for sessions with working groups.

• Ook commerciële diensten verlenen

How to use the statistics and on practice how to gain statistics

Marketing onderzoek/ Budgetting.

No.

Progress as follow up items: share the material presented.

Pension issues in the private sector

Organize monthly seminars for the private industry.

Awareness meetings on regular basis

Need of information Awareness on regular surveys

Better logistics in conference room, better timing, day program scheduling.

Report, dialogue with ABS & other institution

Electricity /water supply for all

No, not yet.

Working group SBF-ABS to work on implementation recommendations

Workshop to learn and actively present data in key sectors of economy (public and private sector and NGO’s)

All issues with approach as an intermediary y(between sectors) are useful.

Om meer vertrouwen te winnen, nadat de samenwerking beter gaat.

Uitwisseling van meer informatie tussen de samenstellers van de statistieken en het bedrijfsleven.

More in term of networking including ABS, NGO’s/Civil society+ public sector +private sector

- The importance of statistics in line with the investing climate of Suriname. - What do the statistical figure tell us. - How can I use the statistical figures to improve the planning for my organization

• Meer dialoog met bedrijfsleven/-organisatie’s • Nodig om behoefte te bepalen / vertrouwen • Statistieken meer Internet friendly maken • Abonnementen voor statistieken introduceren

Margret Kerkhoffs-Zerp, Acting Chair SBF 26 jun 2009 Seminar statistics

Statistieken…. Belangrijk voor het Bedrijfsleven?

• Bedankt voor uw aandacht

90

What kind of topic(s) do you propose


7


91

Annex 3: Responses Satisfactory survey

What kind of follow up do you expect/propose

What kind of topic(s) do you propose

Awareness of the objectives of the focal groups/ stakeholders. Training in survey methods and techniques.

Introductions and analysis of statistical data, ITC and statistical database search

Smaller groups (specifiek domein)

The importance of data for sustainable development

To have workgroups, we can make decisions

Nog geen idee; er moet naar de behoefte worden gekeken.

Betrokkenheid van bedrijven bij het produceren van statistieken

Private sector awareness seminar


Cooperation between ABS and companies and other institutions that have to do with data. Info. On the importance of statistics for benefit of sector & Suriname.

#

Naam 1

Malahe R. (Mr.)

Vertegenwoordigde Instantie/Organisatie A.R. Consultant

E-Mail adres [email protected]

Telefoon 8570715

2

Ausan Jerry

Ausan N.V.

[email protected]

8659310

3

Ausan Shaam

Ausan N.V.

[email protected]

8525456

4

Gemerts - Rambaran Asha

Bauxiet Instituut Suriname

[email protected]

478222/ 478232

5

Lalay Frits


[email protected]

478222/ 478232

6

Mannoe Rosani


[email protected]

478222

7

Conrads L. A.

CHAOS - advising i.o.

[email protected]

8298654

8

Vaarnold R.

Digital Universal

[email protected]

8705100

9

Galimon Platto

Digital Universal

[email protected]

8525479

10

Duldeo - Rai D.

Duldeo - Rai Verhuur Bedrijf

[email protected]

453930/ 8831688

11

Ramautarsing Jenny

I Am Gold

[email protected]

3251115

[email protected]

532633

Recommendations from this seminar used to collect statistics and if these worked.

Presenteren van reeds geproduceerde statistieken

Now to make use of the statistics

Practical case studies of the getting of the information

12

Rambharos Bryan

Institute for Research and Accounting Services

Campagne onder de bedrijven t.a.v awareness in het hebben van statistieken.

Development and investment issues

13

Zunder Armand

International Management Consulting Group

[email protected]

8654072

Should have an evaluation after a certain period.

14

Acton Benito

Janito's Chafing Dish Rent

[email protected]

8534565/ 8534500

Kan ook op een andere manier; dit is een aanzet om verder te gaan op onze eigen manier.

15

Hamme van Johan

N.V.Joerics

[email protected]

8845096

16

Ramcharan Nita

NSS

[email protected]

420005

More seminars, workshops and training sessions Workshops, working groups Small sessions with smaller groups with a variety of people. Protocol voor elke publieke sector organisatie die statistieken produceert. A specific seminar for ABS and the private sector with the focus on the organisations who are not willing to participate

92

Seminar: Goede Statistieken voor een Duurzame Ontwikkeling van Suriname (Private Sector)

Do you have any suggestion(s)


17

Ramautarsing Winston

Proplan Consultancy N.V.

[email protected]

411141

18

Nijman Christal

Qualogy Suriname N.V.

[email protected]

8654001

19

Isselt Ernie

SBC

[email protected]

471521

20

Ernesto Ugarte

SBC

[email protected]

471521

21

Graanoogst Eline

SBC

[email protected]

471521

22

Kalka Ratan

SBC

[email protected]

471521

23

Pinas Delano

SBC

[email protected]

471521

24

Wittenberg Natasha

SBC

[email protected]

471521

25

Amelo Maureen

SBC

[email protected]

471521

26

Sanrochman Vincent

SBC

[email protected]

471521

27

Foe A Man Kenneth

SBF

[email protected]

471521/ 520163

28

Amirullah - Moeniralam Afirah

SBF

[email protected]

8534295/ 473841

29

Sharman Hans

SBF

[email protected]

472024

30

Doekhie Rahid

SBF/ASFA

[email protected]

458666

31

Rodriguez G.

Startende ondernemer


8656063

93


ANNEX 4: List of participants Seminar: Goede Statistieken voor een Duurzame Ontwikkeling van Suriname (Publieke Sector)

#

Vertegenwoordigde Instantie/Organisatie

E-Mail adres

Telefoon

Naam


E-Mail adres

Telefoon

1

Sno Iwan

ABS

[email protected]

474861

32

Burleson Th.

Stichting Samwa

[email protected]

8582794

2

Rampersad C.

ABS

[email protected]

474861

ABS

[email protected]

474861

[email protected]/ [email protected]

425940/ 424697/ 8620274

Cicilson Wendy

Snoijl Ivanilda

Stichting Women's Business Group

3

33

4

Harnandan N.

ABS

[email protected]

474861

ABS

[email protected]

474861


8233369/ 425940/ 424697

Sontohartono J.

Brown - Kortram Rebekka


5

34

6

Khisoensingh A.

ABS

[email protected]

474861

Kasanredjo D.

ABS

[email protected]

474861

Mosche Bromet



425940/ 424697/ 8648526

7

35

8

Raadwijk H.

ABS

[email protected]

474861

9

Hunte A.

ABS

[email protected]

474861

Stichting Women's Business Group/ SBF

Hasno Rehanna

ADEKUVS

[email protected]

8846759

[email protected]

425940/ 424697/ 470682/ 8587242/ 425471

465558 tst 218

Moensi Aditpersad

Suralco LLC

[email protected]

38

Caffe Ingrid

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

39

Breille Judith

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

36

37

40 41 42

43

44

94

Naam

#

Olivieira Cornelly

Mowba J.

Universiteit van Amsterdam

Franklin McDonald Wielingen Dayenne

Dos Ramos Orlando

Bruinhart Peggyta M.

VSB VSB

VSB/ Consulting Partners

[email protected]

R. Rostam-Biharie

ADEKUVS

[email protected] / [email protected]

15

Moe Soe Let Natasha

ADEKUVS

[email protected]

462003

16

Sno Tamira

ADEKUVS

[email protected]/[email protected]

462003/ 439100

420030/ 421603

12

Etnel C.

C-47

[email protected]

860085/ 401120

13

Nerkust Marcel

C-47

[email protected]

401120

[email protected]

473741 tst 595/ 805096

420030/ 421603 456072

[email protected]

08815129/ 465727

[email protected] / [email protected]

475286/ 472287

[email protected]

477527/ 473323/ 8788431


11

0323281 tst 824/ 0323314

[email protected]

[email protected]

10

8567204/ 442587

14

Rusland Emojano

CBvS

17

Refos Ewald

KKF

[email protected]

530311

18

Man A Hing Max

KKF

[email protected]

530311

19

Friperson Naomie

Min. v. ATM

[email protected]

475241 tst 263/ 253

20

Khedoe-Bharos Sandhia

Min.v. Financien

[email protected]

475491

21

Abdoel - Rahiman M.

Min. v. Fin. - Rekenkamer

[email protected]

472854

22

Velter Ch.


[email protected]

472854

23

Vrede - Berg Natasha


[email protected]

472854

24

Ijspol Mario

Min. v. L.V.V. Onderdirektoraat Visserij


25

Jhinkoe - Rai G.

Min. v. O.W. afd. Onderzoek en Planning

[email protected]

532301/ 491705

26

Warso Jacqueline

Min. v. SOZAVO

[email protected]

472160/ 471996

27

Soekrasno Monique

Min. v. SOZAVO

[email protected]

473547

28

Van Brussel Cindy

Min. v. SOZAVO

[email protected]

411890

29

Ghisaidoobe Sandra

Min.v. O.W. afd. Onderzoek en Planning

[email protected]

53230/ 491705/ 8183333

30

Phoelsingh Arti

Min.v. PLOS

[email protected]/a_phoelsingh@yahoo. com

471108


95


#


Naam

E-Mail adres

Telefoon

31

Van Varsseveld Raissa

Min.v. PLOS

[email protected]/ moeiset@ yahoo.com

471108

32

Austerlita Alberto

Ministerie van Defensie

[email protected]

421200/ 426343

33

Fernand Laetitia

N.V. Surinaamsche Waterleiding Mij (SWM)


471414 tst.237/ 476343

34

Elstak Tilda

Stichting Plan Bureau Suriname

www.planbureau.net/ [email protected]

473146

35

Khoesial Radj

Stichting Plan Bureau Suriname

www.planbureau.net

473146

36

Tjauw - Ramdin Sandra P.

Stichting 's Lands Hospitaal

(Genodigden) #


Naam

1

Rostam P.

Kabinet V.P./GENODIGDE

2

Mw. T. Sanrochman

Min. v. Buza/GENODIGDE

E-Mail adres

474805 [email protected]

410539

3

Kamperveen Dennis

Min. v. Defensie/ GENODIGDE

[email protected]

410096

4

Samijo Brian (namens dir. Fin.)

Min. v. Fin./GENODIGDE

[email protected]

472610

5

Tuur Mauro (MBA)

Min. v. H.I./GENODIGDE

[email protected]

404877

[email protected]

472825

6

Ravenswaay R.

Min. v. PLOS/GENODIGDE

7

Brewster Ancile

IDB/GENODIGDE

8

Woei A Tsoi Kenneth

IntEnt Suriname/GENODIGDE

462903

(Sprekers) #

96

Telefoon

Naam

Functie

1

Ir. Ernie Isselt

Directeur SBC

2

Ing. Rahid Doekhie

Voorzitter SBF

3

Dr. Ricardo van Raavenswaay

Minister van Planning en wikkelingssamenwerking

4

Drs. Iwan Sno

Directeur ABS

5

Prof. Dr. Jack Menke

Voorzitter SWI

6

Drs. Ad Coffeng

Consultant

7

Ing. Orlando Dos Ramos

Vertegenwoordiger bedrijfsleven


Seminar. Good Statistics for a. Sustainable Development of. Suriname. 26 June 2009 Courtyard by Marriott Hotel Paramaribo

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