J. Hydro!. Hydromech., 47, 1999, 3, 180 - 194
(
Runoff changes in Czech river basins
- the
outputs of rainfall-runoff simulations
statna se jevf skuteenost, ze v pffpade zvysenych teplot nastane posun v roenfm odtokovem cyklu v dusledku snfzenf snehovych zasob.
RUNOFF CHANGES IN CZECH RIVER BASINS-THE OUTPUTS OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF SIMULATIONS USING DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
{?
ferent geological conditions and for diverse vegetation cover using conceptual model of rainfall-runoff process Sacramento. The catchment areas of basins are mostly in the range of 100 - 500 km2. As alternative inputs climatic scenarios UKHI, UKTR and XCCC 2050 have been used and in part of experiments also the incremental scenarios have been applied; moreover, the outputs of stochastic weather generaL~' of daily time series prepared on the base of the ECHAM model has also been used. The main result of simulations is that in the case of increased air temperature the shift in annual runoff cycle would appear. KEY WORDS: Runoff Changes, Flood Flow Regime, Climate Changes, Climate Scenarios, Sacramento Model.
2. Background and circumstances
MAGDAFORTOvA, MARTIN DUBROVSKY
..
Runoff changeshave been simulated for several river basins in dif-
Josef Buchtele, Marie Buchtelova, Magda Foftova, Martin Dubrovsky: ZMENY ODTOKU V POVODI CESKYCH TOKU JAKO VYSTUPY SRAzKO-ODTOKOVYCH SIMULACI S VYUZITIM RUZNYCH KLIMATICKYCH SCENARU. Vodohosp. Cas., 47, 1999, 3; 9 lit., 9 obr., 3 tab. Pro simulace zmen odtoku v ruznych geologickych podmfnkach a s rozlicnym vegetacnfm krytem prostfednictvfm koncepcne bilancniho modelu Sacramento byla pouzita data z nekolika povodf s plochou 100 - 500 km2. Jako alternativnf vstupy byly uplatneny scenare klimatickych zmen UKHI, UKTR a XCCC 2050 a v casti experimentu byly uzity tzv. inkrementalnf (pffrustkove) scenafe; krome toho byly uplatneny vystupy stochastickeho generatoru dennfch casovych fad srazek a teplot vzduchu zalozene na nemeckem modelu ECHAM. Jako podDoc. lng. Josef Buchtele, CSe., Ing. Marie Buchtelova, CSc., RNDr. Magda Foi'tova, Institute of Hydrodynamics, ASCR, Pod Patankou 5, 16612 Praha 6. RNDr. Martin Dubrovsky, CSc., Institute of Atmospheric Physics, ASCR, Husova 456, 50008 Hradec Krcilove. 180
1. Introduction The investigations which have as its aim the evaluation ofrunoff changes due to expected global climate warming are relatively frequent, however, the results and conclusions are not definite. The obtained changes depend on the used scenarios and are different in different regions. Uncertainties and confusions are appearing from time to time about reliability of scenarios and results of runoff simulations. But, this should not affect the intention to assess what would happen if climatic conditions would be changed. Historical data and observations made in past centuries indicate that warmer periods have been appearing not only due to greenhouse effect. So, it may be expected that such evaluations could contribute to effective use of variable water resources. The experiments with different climate scenarios could be considered as a kind of sensitivity analysis which might support e.g. the decisions what arrangements are appropriate for increased flood protection after the last flood case in the Morava River basin in the July 1997.
OSEF BUCHTELE, MARIE BUCHTELOvA .
KLICOvA SLOVA: zmeny odtoku, povodnovy rezim, klimaticke zmeny, klimaticke scenafe, model Sacramento.
of the prepared analyses
Fig. 1 illustrates quite distinct flow regimes in two basins with different geological conditions, what is not surprising, but also rather diverse annual courses of discharges in the Metuje River in two recent periods. Such variability appeared in relatively short time interval- during 30 years. Then we should expect that such changes will be much more apparent in the span of one or two centuries which represent appropriate period from point of view of planning and design works. As an example Tab. 1 lists the large floods in the Vltava River basin (P ~ 28000 km2) between years 1890 - 1900 and compares it with the situation between years 1901 - 1980 (data from [9]). Different frequency of large floods is a primarily consequence of the fact that atmospheric circulation exhibits different patterns of cyclonic situations and frontal systems on long-term scale: meridionaljlongitudial air flows could be prevailing in different periods which affect transport of moisture and heat to the Central Europe. Another kind of doubts in connection with described experiments is the credibility of simulations of rainfall-runoff process. Fig. 2 shows the results from two basins with very distinct catchment areas. The outputs can be considered as acceptable for the given needs. Another question is, 181
,
J. Buchtele, M. Buchtelova, M. Foftova, M. Dubrovsky
Runoff changes in Czech river basins - the outputs of rainfall-runoff simulations
5 Metuje River
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J. Buchtele, M. Buchtelova, M. Foi'tova, M. Dubrovsky
Runoff changes in Czech river basins - the outputs of rainfall-runoff simulations
of course, the consequence of changed vegetation cover and the resulting evapotranspiration change. This rather complex problem is prepared for analyses on global scale in the research project of BAHC/IGBP [2]; simplified preliminary analysis of these phenomena for the given purposes for the Czech territory has been presented in [3] and [4].
:
Tab 1e 1. The largest floods at the Vltava River in Prague during 2 periods: 1890 1990 and 1901 - 1980.
Tab u 1k a 1. Prehled velkych povodnf na Vltave v Praze v desetiletf 1890 - 1990 a v obdobf 1901 - 1980. Period No 1 2 3 4 5
1890 - 1900 (10 Datum Qrnax 4/10 1890 9/4 1900 6/5 1896 14/9 1899 31/7 1897
years) [m3 S-l]
3975 2770 2470 2130 2090
Period No 1 2 3 4 5
1901 - 1980 (80 years)
Datum 15/3 9/7 15/3 8/10 15/1
1940 1954 1947 1915 1920
Qrnax
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As the main tool of runoff simulation the model Sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC-SMA) has been used [5]. This is the conceptual water balance model with the lumped inputs and parameters, which have been described with more details in [4], where the experiments with this model for the Czech basin were evaluated. For its calibration the daily time series have been used. The comprehensive evaluation and examples of accuracy of simulations are presented in Tab. 2 and in Figs. 2 and 3, where also some characteristics of basins are provided. A bit surprising is that statistical criteria of accuracy do not depend on the catchment area - see the Tab. 2, despite the large heterogenity in the great basin of the Elbe River. Even so the results presented in the following parts of paper are only for the basins with relatively homogenous climatic and geomorphological conditions as given in Fig. 3. As a specific part of accuracy evaluations the Tab. 3 could be considered; it illustrates the sensitivity of simulated flows of the Metuje River to the input changes. There is apparent that the precipitation or evapotranspiration change 5 % is roughly identical with limits of 'noises' included in the input and/or output series.
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J. Buchtele, M. Buchtelova, M. Foftova, M. Dubrovsky
Runoff changes in Czech river basins - the outputs of rainfall-runoff simulations
Tab Ie 2. The basins used for testing and the accuracy of simulations. Tab u I k a 2. Povodi uzita pro simulace a pfesnost kalibraci modelu; pfesnost kalibraci je dana korelacnim koeficientem simulovanych a pozorovanych prutoku (R) a stfedni kvadratkkou chybou pro prumerne mesicni prutoky (a). No.
1
River
Profile
Area [km2]
Period [years]
51000.0
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1961 - 1990
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28.6
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102.4
1984 - 1993
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21.2
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Liz Husinec
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1984 - 1993 1961 - 1990
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23.8 38.9
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Decin
2
Upa (Rozkos)
C. Skalice
3
Metuje
Marsov
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5 6 7
Accracy of simulations R a
II - correlation coefficientof daily simulated and observed flows, a
-
root mean square
error of average monthly flows
4. Results
of simulations
for different
climatic
scenarios
runoff changes. Similar tendencies in annual cycle are visible for three given s,cenarios, what is namely apparent in the case of the Metuje River and the Upa River. Different geomorphological conditions probably cause the typical shape of lines in each basin. Tab I e 3. The sensitivity of simulated runoff to change of inputs in the Metuje River basin.
Tab u Ik a 3. Citlivost simulovanych odtoku na zmeny vstupu
-
povodi Metuje po
Hronovj citlivost je charakterizovana koeficientem korelace (R) a rocnimi prumery procentni odchylky (bias), absolutni standardni chyby (I~I) a stfedni kvadraticke chyby (a). Input Year averages of Corr. coef. changes bias [%] I~I [%] a[%] R Optimal simul. + 0.2 17.1 24.6 0.838 Evap. +5 % -4.6 16.9 25.1 0.838 Prec. +4 % 7.9 19.2 26.8 0.838 Prec. -4% -7.3 17.1 26.1 0.837 Prec. -5 % -9.2 17.5 26.9 0.836 Temp.+4°C -5.8 27.2 43.8 0.592 R - correlation coefficient of daily simulated and observed flows, I~I - absolute standard error of average monthly flows, a - root mean square error of average monthly flows M ETUJE
Incremental scenarios
River
1.6
As Tab. 3 suggests even a simple "increase" of air temperature would cause important change of river flows. Therefore several attempts with runoff simulations have been prepared which show the range of possible runoff changes and the shift in its annual cycle - see Fig. 4. These examples also demonstrate that it is not decisive whether the increase of air temperature would be variable or constant in round-year cycle for regime of snow deposits, but, for low flows this effect is more important. The
scenarios
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UKTR
and
XCCC
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The range of expected changes of inputs of simulations for the Czec territory is illustrated in Fig. 5. These scenarios have been provided in th framework of cooperation in the research project sponsored by EU, [1]. In Fig. 5 the assumed increase of evapotranspiration is noticeable for th scenario UKTR. The experiments with physically based model BROOK [6] have been carried out, in which evapotranspiration change was tested a the Spulka Creek sub-basin in Sumava Mts., near the Austrian-GermaJ borders. The intention has been to verify these values, [3]. Several alternative outputs have been prepared with alternative evapo transpiration. The values presented in Fig. 6 are considered as the resultin 186
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187
J. Buchtele, M. Buchtelova.,M. Foftova, M. Dubrovsky
( Runoff changes in Czech river basins
- the
outputs of rainfall-runoff simulations
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATIONS
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/ Runoff changes in Czech river basins
J. Buchtele, M. Buchtelova, M. Foftova, M. Dubrovsky
-
the outputs of rainfall-runoff simulations
10 4
SCENARIOS2050
BLANICE
.
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Fig. 8. The change of flood waves of the Metuje River in the year 1965 with important snow deposits. Obr. 8. Zmeny nekolika povodiiovych vln v roce s vyznamnymi snehovymi zasobami, Metuje, r. 1965.
4
2 0
X
XII
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0 0.5
0
--,---
X
XII
II
Simulations using weather generator
IV MONTH
outputs
of stochastic
Daily precipitation and air-temperatures are the input for simulations which are presented in Fig. 7. These inputs follow from scenarios produced by model ECHAM, i.e. for 1 x CO2 climate. The observed long-term average monthly discharges are compared there with simulations: (i) for base line conditions (ii) for directly modified climate for 2 x CO2 conditions (iii) using daily series produced by stochastic weather generator. The description ofthis approach is given in [7] and [8]. Basic features of this scenario are similar with foregoing cases, i.e. the shift in annual cycle of runoff appears also here, but, due omitted role of evapotranspiration change the decrease of flow is not visible. As the main intention of implementation of this scenario is to evaluate the possible effect of redistributed precipitation on flood flows, where the problem of evapotranspiration does not seem to be quite relevant.
190
of flood
flow
regime
Illustrations of possible changes of future floods are presented in Figs. 8 and 9. Fig. 8 presents situation in the year with great snow deposits and two flood waves. Assumed redistribution of spring flows into winter period causes in this event several sharp floods, but peak flows would not be lower. The alternative simulations of simple rainfall flood are presented in Fig. 9; it is the largest flo6d wave ever observed in the given basin. Usually it is assumed that warmer climate conditions would cause more intensive rainfall; therefore the simulations are compared here (i) for actual conditions (ii) with more intensive rainfall - of the same amount and duration (iii) with constant intensity. The example shows that the increases of peak flows are to be expected in warmer climate conditions. 5. Conclusions The increase of air temperature would cause in climatic conditions of the Czech Republic namely the shift in runoff annual cycle. If the change
of precipitation would be in the range +5 summer
-
-
10% then the water losses in
autumn period could not be compensated and discharges would
decrease in low flow periods due to reduced groundwater storages. Lower snow deposits and higher frequency of floods during winter and spring period are to be expected. Acknowledgement The research presented in this paper was supported by EC (project EV5V-CT94-0114) and by GA of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (grant A 3060605).
,i!
191
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J. Buchtele, M. Buchtelova, M. Foftova, M. Dubrovsky
125 100
REFERENCES
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75
E E 10
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25' 0
7/7
8/7
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10/7
0
Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology (ed. by V.P. Singh). Water Resources Publications Colo., p. 311-366, ISBN 0-918334-91-8
!II
Intensive rainfall
b)
[6] FEDERER, C. A.: BROOK 90 - A Simulation Model for Evapotranspiration, Soil Water and Streamflow. Durham, NH, USA: USDA Forest Service, 1993. ..... s::
75
M E (J 50
E 10
25 0
7/7
8/7
9/7
10/7
[1] ARNELL, N. et al: Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes and Water Resources in Europe: Central and Eastern Europe. May 1997. Final Report of the project EC No. EV5V - CT94 - 0114. 1997. [2] Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle. The Operational Plan., Stockholm: IGBP, 1993. ISSN 02848015 [3] BUCHTELE, J. - HERRMANN, A. - MARAGA, F. - BAJRACHARYA, O. R.: Simulations of effects of land-use changes on runoff and evapotranspiration. Proc. Int. Conf. "Head Water", Merano, April 1998, p. 99-106. [4] BUCHTELE, J. - KESL, J. and CISSE, Y.: Evaluation of dynamics of groundwater storages using the water balance simulation. J. Hydrol. Hydromech 44, 1996, 6, p. 376-395.
[5] BURNASH, J. C. R.: The NWS River Forecast System - Catchment Modeling. In.:
125 100
Runoff changes in Czech river basins - the outputs of rainfall-runoff simulations
E
a. ~
[7] NEMESOvA, 1. -- KALVOvA,J.
-
KLIMPEROvA, N. - BUCHTELE, J.: Compar-
ison of GCM-simulated and observed climates for assessing hydrological impacts of climate change. J. Hydrol. Hydromech, 46, 1998, 4-5, p. 237-263. [8] NEMESOvA, 1. - KALVOvA, J. - DUBROVSKY, M.: Climate change projections
based on GCM - simulated daily data. Studia Geoph. et Geod., (in print).
.5
[9] NOVOTNY, J.: Dve stolete hydrologicke fady prutokove na ceskych fekach. Sb. prad HMU, SV. 2, Praha, 1963.
0
Received 21 October 1998 Scientific paper accepted 21 January 1999
125
100
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Blanice River.
Obr. 9. Simulace povodne v Husinci na Blanici se zvysenou a snizenou intenzitou snizky.
192
ZMENY ODTOKU V POVODI CESKYCH TOKU - VYSTUPY SRAzKO-ODTOKOVYCH SIMULAci S VYUZITIM mlZNYCH KLIMATICKYCH SCENAilu Josef B u c h tel e, Marie B u c h tel 0 v a, Magda F 0 f t 0 v a, Martin Dub r 0 v sky Cetne dosavadni rozbory a simulace indikuji, ze mozne zmeny vodniho rezimu v dusledku pfedpokladaneho klimatickeho otepleni mohou byt natolik vyznamne, ze je Mdoud analyzovat jejich pflpadny rozsah a dopady i pfestoze neexistuji dostatecne verohodne podklady resp. vstupy pro simulace srazko-odtokoveho procesu pro zmenene klimaticke pomery. Analyzy a simulace na zaklade ruznych klimatickych scenafu krome toho mohou pfispet take k objasneni vlivu existujfd klimaticke variability na vykyvy v rezimu povodnf a suchych obdobf a ~vysit tak spolehlivost predikd a ochranu pfed jejich negativnimi ucinky. 193
Runoff changes in Czech river basins - the outputs of rainfall-runoff simulations REFERENCES
"
i.
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[1] ARNELL, N. et al: Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes and Water Resources in Europe: Central and Eastern Europe. May 1997. Final Report of the project EC No. EV5V - CT94 - 0114. 1997. [2] Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle. The Operational Plan., Stockholm: IGBP, 1993. ISSN 02848015 [3] BUCHTELE, J. - HERRMANN, A. - MARAGA, F. - BAJRACHARYA, O. R.: Simulations of effects of land-use changes on runoff and evapotranspiration. Proc. Int. Conf. "Head Water", Merano, April 1998, p. 99-106. [4] BUCHTELE, J. - KESL, J. and CISSE, Y.: Evaluation of dynamics of groundwater storages using the water balance simulation. J. Hydrol. Hydromech 44, 1996, 6, p. 376-395.
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based on GCM - simulated daily data. Studia Geoph. et Geod., (in print). [9] NOVOTNY, J.: Dve stolete hydrologicke fady prutokove na ceskych fekach. Sb. prad HlVIU, Sv. 2, Praha, 1963. Received 21 October 1998 Scientific paper accepted 21 January 1999
ZMENY ODTOKU V POVODI CESKYCH TOKU - VYSTUPY SRAzKO-ODTOKOVYCH SIMULACI S VYUZITIM RUZNYCH KLIMATICKYCH SCENAIlu Josef B u c h tel e, Marie B u c h tel 0 v a, Magda F 0 i t 0 v a, Martin Dub r 0 v sky
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Cetne dosavadni rozbory a simulace indikuji, ze mozne zmeny vodnfho rezimu v dusledku pfedpokladaneho klimatickeho otepleni mohou byt natolik vyznamne, ze je zadoucf analyzovat jejich pflpadny rozsah a dopady i pfestoze neexistuji dostatecne verohodne podklady resp. vstupy pro simulace srazko-odtokoveho procesu pro zmenene klimaticke pomery. Analyzy a simulace na zaklade ruznych klimatickych scenaru krome toho mohou pfispet take k objasneni vlivu existujicf klimaticke variability na vykyvy v rezimu povodni a suchych obdobi a zvysit tak spolehlivost predikcf a ochranu pied jejich negativnfmi uCinky. 193
