Rijkswaterstaat Flood Forecasts and evacuation strategies in the Netherlands Robert Slomp Bas Kolen (HKV Lijn in Water)
Outline
1. Flood forecasts (in the National Water Management Centre of the Netherlands) – European (EFAS) – Early Warning 2. Assessing Flood Forecasts (LCO) 3. Flood forecasts (in the National Water Management Centre) – Coastal – Rivers – Lakes 4. Strategies to cope with flooding – Communication - Awareness – Evaluation of strategies, choices Rijkswaterstaat
Water Management Centre (& Water Room) • EFAS system, European early warning (to national Governments) • National Coordination Committees: – LCM Environmental incidents (water) – LCW Drought / water temperature – LCO Threat of flooding on a national level (national early warning, 7 day lead time) • Crisis advisory groups – River floods and droughts – WMCN Rivers – Warning for the levees along the IJssel- and Markermeer WMCN – Lakes – Storm Surge Warning – WMCN Coast – Crisis Team Water Defense – WMCN - CTW Rijkswaterstaat
EFAS
(since November 2012)
European Flood Awareness System - early warnings for large European river basins, based on 14 days weather forecast from different meteorological institutes The flood forecast is given to national organizations and to ERCC in Brussels, not to the public
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EFAS main objectives
-Catchment based information -Lead times up to 10-15 days -Probabilistic information
-Comparable information across Europe -Tool for international aid assistance during crisis
-Operationally targeted research
National water authorities
International Civil Protection
The Water Room and its entities (National Control Centre for forecasting) • National Coordination Committees: – LCM Environmental incidents (water) – LCW Drought / water temperature – LCO Threat of flooding on a national level • Crisis advisory groups – River floods and droughts – WMCN Rivers – Warning for the levees along the IJssel- and Markermeer WMCN – Lakes – Storm Surge Warning – WMCN Coast – Crisis Team Water Defense – WMCN - CTW Rijkswaterstaat
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Rijkswaterstaat Flow Forecasting Netherlands
Friday, 19 December 2014
National coordination Committee on threat of flooding (LCO) • For a very high storm surge or an extreme flood on one of the rivers the normal procedure for warning gives too little time for handling (evacuation) • The LCO is a cooperation of the Rijkswaterstaat and the Regional Water Authorities (Water boards) and is one of the services of the National Water Management Centre of the Netherlands • The warning service for the big lakes (WDIJ), the river forecasting group or the storm surge warning service (for the Sea) give the LCO information about forecasts up to 7 days ahead • The regional Water Authorities make forecasts for the expected damage • To inform the top levels of the government the LCO reports the country-wide status for the dikes and the forecasted damage on the dikes and dunes along the coast or the rivers. • The government can decide on measures (evacuation) if necessary
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29 maart 2013
The Water Room and its entities (Control Centre for forecasting) • National Coordination Committees: – LCM Environmental incidents (water) – LCW Drought / water temperature – LCO Threat of flooding on a national level • Crisis advisory groups – River floods and droughts – WMCN Rivers – Warning for the levees along the IJssel- and Markermeer WMCN – Lakes – Storm Surge Warning – WMCN Coast – Crisis Team Water Defense – WMCN - CTW Rijkswaterstaat
Inundation of the floodplain near Wamel (Waal River)
Rijkswaterstaat
The Water Room and its entities • National Coordination Committees: – LCM Environmental incidents (water) – LCW Drought / water temperature – LCO Threat of flooding on a national level • Crisis advisory groups – River floods and droughts – WMCN Rivers – Warning for the levees along the IJssel- and Markermeer WMCN – Lakes – Storm Surge Warning – WMCN Coast – Crisis Team Water Defense – WMCN - CTW Rijkswaterstaat
Forecasting along lakes Work flow
(KNMI) (downscaled) wind fields at high spatial resolution Discharges Vecht and IJssel
WAQUA Water levels & wind
Wave height & wave period
PC-Overslag Rijkswaterstaat
Wave run-up height and wave overtopping volumes per dike section
Wave runup
13
Rijkswaterstaat Opleiding WDIJ
februari 2013
WDIJ: HIRLAM /HARMONIE downscaling KNMI
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Set-up example, FEWS Lakes 7 dec 2011
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5e) Wave height and direction
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5f) Run-up heights
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Flood alert (every 6 hours) Overzicht van waarschuwingen voor alle beheerders De basis van de waterstandsverwachting is de KNMI weersverwachting van 2014-11-26 07:00 met een duur van 48 uur. In de genoemde periode is de ruimtelijk gemiddelde windsnelheid voor het IJsselmeer maximaal 9,6 m/s, de bijbehorende windrichting is: 63 graden. In de genoemde periode is de ruimtelijk gemiddelde windsnelheid voor het Markermeer maximaal 9,0 m/s, de bijbehorende windrichting is: 59 graden.
TYPE
BEHEER DER
BD
WSAGV
LOCATIE
CRITERI UM
TIJDSTIP overschrijding 1ste criterium
DUUR overschrijding 1ste criterium (in uren)
Veronderstelde kruinhoogte (in m+NAP)
Waarde maximaal (in m+NAP)
DREMPELWAA RDE CODE (in m +NAP) geel/oranje/ro od/ap
CODE
Muiderberg-Oost
WS
2014-11-26 07:00
0
0,30
0,00
0,00
GEEL
Nadere toelichting is verkrijgbaar bij het WMCN, telefoonnummer 0320 - 298888 Legenda Type: PK = dijkvak in primaire kering KW = kunstwerk in primaire of verbindende kering SG = specifiek buitendijks gebied met speciale aandacht, bijvoorbeeld in de vorm van een kade met een veiligheidsnorm BD = buitendijks gebied Legenda Criterium: WS = de verwachtte waterstand tov NAP MKH1 = de kruinhoogte behorende bij de maatgevende hydraulische belasting van een golfoverslag van 1 liter per strekkende meter Toelichting: Voor zowel Dijkvakken in primaire keringen (PK) en Specifieke buitendijkse gebieden met speciale aandacht (SG) wordt onderscheid gemaakt tussen CODE GEEL, CODE ROOD en CODE AP. CODE GEEL is conform wens keringbeheerder ingesteld en kan indien gewenst bijgesteld worden. CODE ROOD is ingesteld conform LDHO. CODE AP staat voor CODE alarmeringspeil, dit ligt een decimeringshoogte onder de veronderstelde kruinhoogte. Voor Buitendijkse gebieden (BD) worden CODE GEEL en CODE ORANJE onderscheiden. Deze zijn ingesteld conform wens crisisorganisatie Rijkswaterstaat
The Water Room and its entities • National Coordination Committees: – LCM Environmental incidents (water) – LCW Drought / water temperature – LCO Threat of flooding on a national level • Crisis advisory groups – River floods and droughts – WMCN Rivers – Warning for the levees along the IJssel- and Markermeer WMCN – Lakes – Storm Surge Warning – WMCN Coast – Crisis Team Water Defense – WMCN - CTW Rijkswaterstaat
Storm Surge Warning Service (SVSD) • Together with Hydro Meteo Centres Noordzee and Zeeland and the National Royal Meteo institute (KNMI) • KNMI provides the early warnings • SVSD gives warnings and alarms 12 hour before the high tide and corrects this every 3 hours • SVSD sends warnings by – Telephone (Water boards) – SMS – Internet
Rijkswaterstaat
5g) Organisation Storm surge warning service
Meteo forecasts
KNMI
WMCN Storm Surge Warning Service
(Royal met-office) Storm surge Alert
Press Information Radio en TV Warning by Internet / public phone call for
Warning by phone call for very high waterlevel
extreme high waterlevel
Measurements Forecasts
Regional Water Authorities (Water boards) Safety regions (emergency services) Provinces Rijkswaterstaat
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Waterlevel forecasts
Advise Dikewatch
Measurements & forecasts
Information
Water level forecasts alert
Online measurements •Water levels •Wind speeds •Wind direction •Waves Forecasts •Weather •Water level
Measurements
Headquarters Information Rijkswaterstaat
alert
LCO
Decision teams Stormsurge barriers Eastern-Scheldt Krimpen a/d IJssel Maeslant barrier & Hartelcanal
5h) Time frame for decision making is short for the coas - 5 days ahead, 15 to 20 per cent probability - No transport possible 1 day ahead with beaufort 10/11 gale - You need to know where a storm makes landfall
Time in days (day 0 is when the storm hits the coast) important variables: tide and storm direction Source: Kolen, B, 2012, Rijkswaterstaat
Therefore policy is focused on flood defences
Thank you for your attention
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Windforce 9 Bft winddirection Track of storm
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Evacuation strategies and flood risk Dr.ir. Bas Kolen HKV Consultants www.hkv.nl
[email protected]
Different evacuation strategies for evacuation to cope with uncertainties
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Adaptive or flexible evacuation strategies
Effectiveness of preventive evacuation is limited, vertical evacuation is needed
Evacuation fraction: average number of people that can evacuate preventive based on available and required time Rijkswaterstaat
Decision support “evacuation iso graph” Decision makers evaluate probability of flooding and positive (reduction of damage and casualties) and negative consequences (economic disruption) for possible strategies (preventive, vertical etc) • Limited experience, high (political and social) consequences • Dealing with uncertainties
Preparation with “Evacuation ISO Graphs” to support decision makers Rijkswaterstaat
Risk Awareness for public and professionals •
Risk perception is limited in NL (cornerstone of sucesfull prevention); OESO – more attention is needed
NEW: Information to the public • Website www.overstroomik.nl • App in IOS and ANDROID store Datawarehouse for professionals
Rijkswaterstaat
Different users IT Architecture Datawarehouse and users as websites, can connect to the warehouse apps and common operational picture
MEGO dreiging sbeelden (LWB)
APP Overstr oom ik?
Website www.o verstro omik.nl
Website Ons Water (IenM)
Min OCW
Rode Kruis
Defensie
User VR Ijsselland
Etc.
Etc…
`Data Warehouse “Platform Overstromingen”
Source A
Source B
Source C
Each datasource has one owner, which is not always RWS. The owner is responsible for the quality of the data
Source D
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http://professional.basisinformatie-overstromingen.nl
Ware house
Data
Risk Awareness for public and professionals
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Datawarehouse with actual information for several users Datawarehouse of RWS holds: • Per section of a levee (source VNK) • Flood scenario (for T100, 1.000, 10.000 and 100.000) • Probability of failure of levee • Overall maximum flood depth • Lead time and evacuation time • Shelter possibilities for each structure based on maximum water depth • Flooded infrastructure (roads, rail, airport) • Industrial and chemical plants in flood zone Rijkswaterstaat
Screenshots of datawarehouse Flood scenario
Maximum flood depth
Probability of flooding
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Possible shelter
Use datawarehouse to develop “Common Operation Water Picture” Professional use only (login required): • Select possible flood scenario´s from ‘warehouse’ (use forecast, monitoring) • Update flood map, map with shelter options, roads • Publish and share with partners
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Thanks for your attention
Questions?
Bas Kolen
[email protected] www.hkv.nl +31 6 10962684
Rijkswaterstaat
http://repository.ubn.ru.nl//handle/2066/115713
