Presentation at Fifth Power Dinner, Marketing in Indonesia 2008 Update: Challenges and Opportunities, Jakarta, 24 July 2008

Presentation at Fifth Power Dinner, Marketing in Indonesia 2008 Update: Challenges and Opportunities, Jakarta, 24 July 2008

1

3 Observasi

1.

Observasi 1 - Perekonomian Indoensia sedang bangkit kembali

2.

Observasi 2 - Faktor Lingkungan Global 2008-1009 yang Menuju Stagflasi

3.

Observasi 3 - Ancaman inflasi di Indonesia bangkit kembali

Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008

2

Observasi 1 -

-

-

Dengan disertai gelombang Reformasi sejak medio 1998; yang menggelontorkan arus besar Demokratisasi dan Desentralisasi, perekonomian Indonesia bangkit kembali. Peristiwa itu ditandai oleh semakin kuatnya peranan PDB dan expor Non-Migas serta kontribusi perekonomian daerah-daerah produsen/exportir komoditi-komoditi Non-Migas. Reformasi besar di Sektor Perbankan dan Keuangan telah kembali memperkuat peranan lembaga perbankan, yang kali ini disertai oleh peningkatan peranan BEI. Bersama kesemua perubahan mendasar tersebut dana dari luar negeri (capital inflow) masuk, baik di dalam bentuk Portfolio – maupun Direct Foreign Investment.


3

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi bangkit kembali Indonesia setelah Krisis Multidimensi, dipicu oleh Sektor-Sektor Non-Migas Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%/tahun)1998-2008 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6-13%

4.9

5.7

5.3

4.9 3.6

4.8

4.5

6 5

6.6 5.7

5.6

6.1

6.3

6.9

6.4

6.8

3.2

0.9 1

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Kabinet Gotong-Royong

-14 %


PDB Total

PDB Non Migas

2005

2006

2007

2008 **

4

Laju pertumbuhan expor non-migas telah semakin cepat (didukung oleh kebangkitan basis-basis produksi di daerah-daerah, selain oleh semakin kuatnya permintaan global akan komoditi dan kenaikan harga-harga komoditi) Indonesia Trade Balance 2003-2007 (US$ Million. %) 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

3

4

5

6

7

1

T REND (%) 03-07 8

CHANG E (%) 2007 8 (7:6)

A.

EX P O RT 1. O IL & G A S 2. NO N O IL & G A S

61,058.2 13,651.4 47,406.8

71,584.6 15,645.3 55,939.3

85,660.0 19,231.6 66,428.4

100,798.6 21,209.5 79,589.1

113,993.1 22,055.9 91,937.2

17.24 13.47 18.26

13.09 3.99 15.51

B.

IM P O RT 1. O IL & G A S 2. NO N O IL & G A S

32,550.7 7,610.9 24,939.8

46,524.5 11,732.0 34,792.5

57,700.9 17,457.7 40,243.2

61,065.5 18,962.9 42,102.6

74,206.7 21,879.6 52,327.1

21.17 29.59 18.21

21.52 15.38 24.28

C.

T O T AL 1. O IL & G A S 2. NO N O IL & G A S

93,608.9 21,262.3 72,346.6

118,109.1 27,377.3 90,731.8

143,360.8 36,689.3 106,671.6

18.67 20.14 18.22

16.27 9.37 18.55

D.

BAL AN CE 1. O IL & G A S 2. NO N O IL & G A S

28,507.5 6,040.5 22,467.0

25,060.1 3,913.3 21,146.8

27,959.1 1,773.9 26,185.1

11.94 -53.34 18.49

0.13 -92.15 5.14

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics


161,864.1 40,172.4 121,691.7 39,733.1 2,246.6 37,486.5

188,199.8 43,935.5 144,264.3 39,786.4 176.3 39,414.1

5

Ikhtisar Ekonomi Makro Ekonomi Indonesia : 2001-2007 No Indikator Ekonomi

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 2007 1)

1 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%) 3.6 ‐ Non Migas 4.9 2 Inflasi (%) 12.5 3 SBI rate % (3bulan) 17.63 10256 4 Nilai Tukar Rupiah (Rp/USD) 5 Sektor Eksternal ‐ Cadangan Devisa (USD milyar) 28 ‐ Transaksi Berjalan (% thd PDB) 4.2 7 Defisit Anggaran (% thd PDB) 2.4 8 Utang Pemerintah (% thd PDB) 75.3 9 Utang Luar Negeri ‐ % thd PDB 81.0 ‐ Debt Service Ratio (% thd ekspor) 41.4 10 Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (%) 8.1 11 Tingkat Kemiskinan (%) 18.2

4.5 5.2 10 13.02 9318

4.8 5.7 5.1 8.31 8593

5.0 6.0 6.4 7.43 8940

5.7 6.6 17.1 12.75 9713

5.5 6.1 6.6 9.75 9050

6.3 6.9 6.7 8 9130

32 3.9 1.3 63.9

36.6 3.4 1.7 57.4

36.3 1.2 1.3 55.5

34.7 0.1 0.5 46.5

42.6 2.7 0.9 39.2

56.9 2.6 1.2 35.5

66.5 33.1 9.1 17.4

56.8 32.3 9.7 17.4

53.8 27.1 9.9 16.7

46.5 17.3 11.2 16.0

35.2 24.8 10.3 17.8

32.7 21.5 9.1 16.6

Kabinet Gotong-Royong Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008

Sistem Moneter Indonesia semakin menguat

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Coping with Capital Flows: Indonesia Experience Indonesian Economy Better Set to Mitigate External Shock… Indicator

1997/1998

2007 Economic Resiliency

Exchange Rate Monetary Policy Framework Foreign Exchange Reserves

Managed Float Multiple Targeting March 1998: USD 16,4M

Sustainability indicator: •Debt/GDP •Short Term Debt/Reserve •Reserves/Foreign Port. Inv. Fiscal Policy Framework Fiscal Balance

More Stable Fragile •34.4% •151.2% •44,0% •138.0% •April 2007: 1,97 •July 1997: 1,38 More balance: between fiscal sustainability and economic stimulus More prudent, reflected in the surplus of the overall 2006: -1,0 balance 2007: -1,8 1996/1997: 1,8 1997/1998: 2,2 Not Provided Better To increase credit, creating inflationary pressure Limited in financial sector Banking Sector Resiliency

Institutional Inflow Characteristic

Flexible (Free Float) Inflation Targeting April 2007: USD 49,3 M

Banking Indicators:

Banking main indicators in 2007 are better than in 1997: improving capital position is sufficient to absorb any potential shock, better credit quality, and improving profitability •CAR: 9.2%, NPL Gross: 8.3%, ROA: 1.4% •CAR: 21.2%, NPL Gross: 6.7%, ROA: 2.7%

Banking Management

• Inadequate risk management •Lots of violation done in Legal Lending Limit (Batas Maksimum Pemberian Kredit/BMPK) •Not established

•Risk management function is a must •There is almost no violation in Legal Lending Limit

Lack of liquidity: •Market capitalization: Rp. 223 trillion •Bonds trading volume: Rp. 5,3 trillion, trading frequency: 1,49 •Mutual funds NAV: Rp 4 trillion

Adequate liquidity •Market capitalization: Rp. 1.443 trillion (May-07) •Bonds trading volume: Rp. 815 trillion (Mar-07), trading frequency: 35.000 •Mutual funds Nav: Rp. 62 trillion (May-07)

Infrastructure Development

Bond and Equity Market Liquidity

Established * Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (Lembaga Penjamin Simpana/LPS), Good Corporate Governance regulator, JPSK,API) Capital Market Resiliency


7

Observasi 2 -

-

Berhimpunya kemelut “sub-prime” yang memicu kesulitan perkreditan (credit crunch), dengan Depresiasi USD yang tajam serta terlalu cepat, serta Merosotnya “corporate profitability”, yang diakibatkan oleh “higher financing cost/rising materials cost/rising energy cost”

telah memicu kemerosotan consumer confidence dan kekahawatiran (fear) akan terjadinya resesi global -

Per medio 2008 ini makin tampak bahwa bahaya yang ada -

bukan RECESSION,

-

melainkan SLOWDOWN,

-

dengan kemungkinan terjadinya “significant and protracted growth slowdown” (Worst Scenario)


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US ECONOMY 2008-2009

RECESSION - negative real GDP growth for two consecutive quarters or longer -

SLOWDOWN - real GDP growth is maintained albeit at a lower rate than previously

SLOWDOWN is more linkely because of: -

faster policy response

-

continuing capital inflow to US US continues to be able to offer a wide array of assets, with unbeatable risk-adjusted returns

-

-

flexibility and dynamism of US financial system

Worst Scenario: significant and protracted growth slowdown


9

a point to remember - in the last 25 years the US has suffered only 2 recessions - both were short and mild

real GDP growth

short & shallow U-curve

O

t

- both the 1990-1991 and 2001 recession lasted only 8 months

businesses are nervous of the possibilities of: real 1. long & shallow recession, GDP 2. double-dip slowdown, growth O

3. a sharp recession, or 4. Japan type L-sharp “lost decade” slowdown

real GDP growth

O Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008

t

t

10

Fear

- the world economy proves to be less resilient than now seems likely - commodity producers/exporters still depend – even though at a lesser degree than previously – on US demand - continuing weak USD forced pegged currencies to appreciate vis a vis USD - populism and protectionism rising in the G-8 - the spread of global inflation - uncertainty with regard to the likely extent and the cost it will impose in the short-term


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Observasi 3 -

-

-

Sebagai pengimpor Minyak Bumi dan BBM yang menghadapi potensi kenaikan impor yang berkepanjangan di masa depan, gejolak peningkatan harga-harga kedua komoditi tersebut menimbulkan ancaman inflasi. Hal itu akan tampak pada baik “Headline Inflation”, “Core Inflation”, maupun “Producer price inflation”, yang kesemuanya akan menimbulkan “liquidity risk” (downside risk) Kebijakan menaikan harga BBM yang dilakukan secara “gebrakan” berpotensi menimbulkan gejolak inflasioner dibandingkan dengan menggunakan cara “market-based pricing” yang melakukan penyesuaian-penyesuaian terbatas secara reguler. Tindakan gebrakan juga berpengaruh kuat terhadap gerakangerakan kurs Rp/USD Di hadapan cadangan Minyak Bumi Indonesia yang terbatas; selain di dalam jangka-panjang terancam merosot, maka “Kebijakan Energi Nasional” – termasuk pembentukan Stok Nasional – merupakan keharusan yang mendesak


Ancaman-ancaman baru: Inflasi Global merebak ke Indonesia

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The Economist commodity-price index Jul 17th 2008 From The Economist print edition

Analisa Meskipun kenaikan index harga komoditi mineral metal mulai menunjukkan pelambatan, tapi pada komoditi pangan terus melejit ke atas. Kenaikan pada pangan bersejajaran dengan kenaikan index harga WTI – juga Brent, yang pada akhirnya muncul di industri petrokimia penghasil pupuk/pestisida/ insektisida. Juga: memicu permintaan akan Biofuels, yang mengancam suplai pangan di pasaran dunia


13

Sumber: International Herald Tribune, March 7, 2998


14

Sumber: Kompas, 3 Juli 2008


15

Sumber: Kompas, 6 Mei 2008 Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008

16

Perkembangan Inflasi dan Inflasi Inti Perkembangan Inflasi dan Inflasi Inti, 2005-2007 20%

18%

Target Inflasi :

16%

2008 = 5 ± 1 % ; 2009 = 4,5 ± 1 %

14%

2010 = 4 ± 1%

12% 10%

8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

Headline y o y Core y o y


Catatan: inflasi yang tinggi mengancam tingkat kesejahteraan “Fixed Income Earners” (masyarakat berpenghasilan tetap seperti PNS/TNI/POLRI/Peg. BUMNBUMD dan karyawan/buruh perusahaan-perusahaan kecil/ menengah)

17

Oil reserves Jun 19th 2008 From The Economist print edition

Over 60% of the world's proven oil reserves— those that can be recovered from known oil fields using existing technology—are in the Middle East, according to BP, a British oil giant. Add in Russia and Venezuela, and the share rises to 74%. Saudi Arabia alone accounts for over a fifth of the total. At today's rates of production, the world has enough oil to last for almost 42 years, a slight improvement on last year. But the reserves reported by Middle Eastern countries, in particular, have remained remarkably stable over the years. That implies either that they are discovering new fields at exactly the same pace as they are exploiting their existing ones, or that they are not providing very accurate data.


18

Sumber: Kompas, 15 Juni 2008


TERIMAKASIH BANYAK UNTUK PERHATIAN ANDA SELAMAT BEKERJA

Prof. DR. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti

Presentation at Fifth Power Dinner, Marketing in Indonesia 2008 Update: Challenges and Opportunities, Jakarta, 24 July 2008

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