Presentasi Tugas Akhir - KS091336

Presentasi Tugas Akhir - KS091336 Simulasi Sistem Dinamis terhadap Analisis Faktor Pertumbuhan Industri UKM Sektor Pertanian dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap PDRB Provinsi Jawa Timur Penyusun Tugas Akhir : Umi Salama 5207 100 084

Dosen Pembimbing : Erma Suryani, S.T., M.T., Ph.D Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Causal Loop Diagram

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Base Model • • • •

Sub-Model Agricultural Area Sub-Model Total Production Value Sub-Model Total Agricultural SME Sub-Model GDRP


Agricultural Area


Formulasi • Population(t) = Population (t-1) + Birth rate-Death rate • Birth rate = 0,77 * Population • Death rate = 0,76 * Population • Total housing & industrial area = ((average area per capita * population) +(average area per industry * (total agricultural SME + total non agricultural SME)))/10000 Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Formulasi • Agricultural area = Regional area – (total housing & industrial area+other area) • Food farming area = 67,4/100 * agricultural area • Plantation area = 25,4/100* agricultural area • Horticulture area = 7/100 * agricultural area • Land fishery’s area = 0,3/100 * agricultural area • Fishery area = land fishery’s area * ocean’s area


Formulasi • Average food farming area per SME = total food farming SME / food farming area • Average plantation area per SME = total plantation SME / plantation area • Average horticulture area per SME = total horticulture SME / horticulture area • Average fishery area per SME = total fishery SME / fishery area Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Total Production Value


Formulasi • Food farming production rate = average food farming area per SME * average food farming prod. * total food farming SME • Plantation production rate = average plantation area per SME * average plantation prod. * total plantation SME • Horticulture rate = average horticulture area per SME * average horticulture prod. * total horticulture SME Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Formulasi • Stock farm production rate = average stock farm area per SME * total stock farm SME • Fishery production rate = average fishery area per SME * average fishery prod. * total fishery SME


Total Agricultural SME


Formulasi • Credit available = credit available look up(Time) • Credit available look up = (2000, 9.53811e+010), (2001, 1.32586e+011), (2002, 1.84305e+011), (2003, 2.56196e+011), (2004, 3.56131e+011), (2005, 4.95048e+011), (2006, 6.88151e+011), (2007, 9.56579e+011), (2008, 1.32971e+012), (2009, 1.84839e+009), (2010, 2.5694e+012)


Formulasi • Food farming SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008* 0.68 • Plantation SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008* 0.18 • Horticulture SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008* 0.08 • Stock farm SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008* 0.03 • Fishery SME rate = (credit available + 8e + 012) / 1.7e+008* 0.02 Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Formulasi • Fishery SME rate = (credit available + 8e + 012) / 1.7e+008* 0.02 • Total agricultural SME = total fishery SME+total food farming SME+total horticulture SME+total plantation SME+total stock farm SME


GDRP


Formulasi • GDRP (t) = GDRP rate - GDRP (t-1) • GDRP rate = domestic consumption + government expenditure + investment + net export • Net eksport = export – import


Formulasi • Import = import look up(Time) • Import look up = (2000, 8.3729e+013), (2001, 9.67949e+013), (2002, 1.119e+014), (2003, 1.29361e+014), (2004, 1.49548e+014), (2005, 1.72885e+014), (2006, 1.99864e+014), (2007, 2.18447e+014), (2008, 2.44675e+014), (2009, 2.86334e+014), (2010, 3.55308e+014) Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Formulasi • Investment = investment look up(Time) • Investment look up = (2000, 5.91909e+013), (2001, 6.55092e+013), (2002, 7.2502e+013), (2003, 8.02412e+013), (2004, 8.88065e+013), (2005, 9.82861e+013), (2006, 1.08778e+014), (2007, 1.11129e+014), (2008, 1.32019e+014), (2009, 1.33837e+014), (2010, 1.61088e+014) Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Formulasi • Government expenditure = government expenditure look up(Time) • Government expenditure look up = (2000, 1.42682e+013), (2001, 1.64836e+013), (2002, 1.90431e+013), (2003, 2.19999e+013), (2004, 2.54159e+013), (2005, 2.93623e+013), (2006, 3.39214e+013), (2007, 3.91453e+013), (2008, 4.62649e+013), (2009, 5.39047e+013), (2010, 6.03775e+013) Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Validasi Model

= 0,041245 Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Validasi Model

= 0,036852 Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Validasi Model

= 0,05 Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Skenario Optimis


Skenario Optimis • domestic consumtion non agriculture growth rate = 0.139 * domestic consumption non agriculture • export non agriculture growth rate = 0.163*export non agriculture • import growth rate = 0.156*import • government expenditure growth rate = 0.155*government expenditure • invesment growth rate = 0.167*investment Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Skenario Optimis • total export = total production value*0.3+export non agruculture • total domestic consumption = total production value * 0.63+domestic consumption non agriculture • credit available growth rate = 0.4*credit available


Skenario Optimis • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3% Time (Year) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GDRP 169.681.004.527.616 222.440.500.232.192 266.616.101.142.528 315.126.984.998.912 368.609.897.480.192 427.790.553.841.664 493.521.236.656.128 566.781.332.684.800 648.716.021.137.408 740.660.197.982.208 844.181.257.846.784 961.126.305.103.872 1.093.695.839.404.030 1.244.508.381.511.680 1.416.733.885.726.720 1.614.257.284.186.110

Total Agricultural SME 2.118.148 2.165.295 2.212.832 2.261.032 2.310.363 2.361.612 2.416.124 2.476.183 2.545.671 2.631.189 2.743.958 2.903.054 3.140.906 3.512.640 4.111.979 5.098.242


Skenario Optimis • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3%


Skenario Optimis • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3% Time (Year) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GDRP


169.681.004.527.616 222.440.500.232.192 266.616.101.142.528 315.126.984.998.912 368.609.897.480.192 427.790.553.841.664 493.521.236.656.128 566.781.332.684.800 648.716.021.137.408 740.660.197.982.208 844.181.257.846.784 961.126.305.103.872 1.093.695.839.404.030 1.244.508.381.511.680 1.416.733.885.726.720 1.614.257.284.186.110

55.269.367.218.176 74.696.326.381.568 94.457.730.957.312 114.564.880.400.384 135.019.167.219.712 155.835.439.251.456 177.023.670.550.528 198.607.508.602.880 220.624.182.050.816 243.140.246.110.208 266.267.034.386.432 290.199.699.456.000 315.238.117.277.696 341.877.249.277.952 370.917.704.204.288 403.521.136.492.544


Sumbangan 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 36% 36% 35% 34% 33% 32% 30% 29% 27% 26% 25%

Skenario Optimis • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3%


Skenario Pesimis • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2% Time (Year)

GDRP

Total Agricultural SME

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

169.681.004.527.616 222.440.500.232.192 266.616.101.142.528 315.126.984.998.912 368.607.380.897.792 427.778.541.355.008 493.485.098.532.864 566.693.688.508.416 648.527.445.229.568 740.284.187.017.216 843.468.763.037.696 959.823.252.291.584 1.091.373.335.838.720 1.240.448.563.675.140 1.409.753.221.693.440 1.602.439.279.017.980

2.118.148 2.165.295 2.212.458 2.259.638 2.306.836 2.354.052 2.401.288 2.448.542 2.495.817 2.543.112 2.590.428 2.637.767 2.685.127 2.732.511 2.779.919 2.827.351


Skenario Pesimis • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2%


Skenario Pesimis • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2% Time (Year) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GDRP Total Production Value Sumbangan 169.681.004.527.616 55.269.367.218.176 33% 222.440.500.232.192 74.696.326.381.568 34% 266.616.101.142.528 94.457.730.957.312 35% 315.126.984.998.912 114.562.162.491.392 36% 368.607.380.897.792 135.006.231.986.176 37% 427.778.541.355.008 155.796.650.328.064 36% 493.485.098.532.864 176.929.466.482.688 36% 566.693.688.508.416 198.404.755.947.520 35% 648.527.445.229.568 220.219.834.368.000 34% 740.284.187.017.216 242.374.097.764.352 33% 843.468.763.037.696 264.865.985.855.488 31% 959.823.252.291.584 287.702.209.527.808 30% 1.091.373.335.838.720 310.872.685.674.496 28% 1.240.448.563.675.140 334.371.156.393.984 27% 1.409.753.221.693.440 358.210.305.261.568 25% 1.602.439.279.017.980 382.378.220.453.888 24%


Skenario Pesimis • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2%


Skenario Most Likely • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1% Time (Year) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

169.681.004.527.616 222.440.500.232.192 266.616.101.142.528 315.126.984.998.912 368.607.380.897.792 427.778.541.355.008 493.485.098.532.864 566.693.688.508.416 648.527.445.229.568 740.284.187.017.216 843.468.763.037.696 959.823.252.291.584 1.091.373.335.838.720 1.240.448.563.675.140 1.409.753.221.693.440

Total Agricultural SME 2.118.148 2.165.295 2.212.497 2.259.760 2.307.091 2.354.497 2.401.984 2.449.561 2.497.236 2.545.021 2.592.925 2.640.961 2.689.141 2.737.481 2.785.996

2015

1.602.439.279.017.980

2.834.703

GDRP


Skenario Most Likely • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1%


Skenario Most Likely • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1% Time (Year) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GDRP


169.681.004.527.616 222.440.500.232.192 266.616.101.142.528 315.126.984.998.912 368.607.380.897.792 427.778.541.355.008 493.485.098.532.864 566.693.688.508.416 648.527.445.229.568 740.284.187.017.216 843.468.763.037.696 959.823.252.291.584 1.091.373.335.838.720 1.240.448.563.675.140

55.269.367.218.176 74.696.326.381.568 94.457.730.957.312 114.562.439.315.456 135.007.398.002.688 155.799.687.004.160 176.935.774.715.904 198.416.147.677.184 220.238.691.958.784 242.403.239.788.544 264.908.969.082.880 287.763.177.930.752 310.956.504.645.632 334.483.597.295.616

Sumban gan 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 36% 36% 35% 34% 33% 31% 30% 28% 27%

2014

1.409.753.221.693.440

358.357.877.653.504

25%

2015

1.602.439.279.017.980

382.568.507.637.760

24%


Skenario Most Likely • Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1%


Analisis Hasil Scenario Type

Pertumbuhan jumlah UKM (%)

Pertumbuhan GDRP (%)

Pertumbuhan Nilai Produksi (%)

Rata-Rata Sumbangan GDRP (%)

Skenario Optimistis

3

16,3

14,40

32

Skenario Most Likely

2

16,2

14,02

32

Skenario Pesimistis

1

16,2

14,01

32


Kesimpulan • Sistem ini dapat meramalkan kontribusi pertumbuhan UKM terhadap nilai PDRB di masa mendatang karna setelah dilakukan uji verifikasi hasil, dengan perhitungan perbandingan rata-rata dan perbandingan standard deviasi, simulasi base model tersebut memiliki hasil < 5% untuk perbandingan rata-rata dan < 30 % untuk perbandingan standard deviasi. • Dalam melakukan perkiraan nilai kontribusi UKM sektor pertanian terhadap nilai PDRB di masa mendatang, diketahui bahwa pertumbuhan UKM sangatlah dipengaruhi oleh luas area tanam dan produktivitas panen serta kredit yang disediakan oleh pemerintah. Selain itu, pertumbuhan UKM sektor pertanian memberikan kontribusi yang besar terhadap nilai PDRB dengan kontribusi sebesar rata-rata 32% dari total seluruh nilai PDRB. Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Kesimpulan • Dilihat dari hasil simulasi, menunjukkan bahwa tingkat kontribusi UKM sektor pertanian terhadap PDRB akan terus menurun. Hal ini disebabkan pertumbuhan jumlah UKM akan mengurangi luas area tanam sehingga menurangi produktivitas UKM sektor pertanian. • Berdasarkan hasil simulasi skenario (optimis, pesimis, most likely), peningkatan jumlah UKM juga akan meningkatkan nilai produksi UKM pertanian yang akhirnya akan meningkatkan nilai PDRB. Peningkatan yang terjadi tidak terlalu signifikan sebesar 0,1% hingga 4%. Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Presentasi Tugas Akhir - KS091336

Recommend Documents