Positive Trade Balance

DEBT RESEARCH

MONTHLY REPORT DECEMBER 2013

Positive Trade Balance

Indonesia FCLT Rating S&P Moody’s Fitch

BB+ Baa3 BBB-

Key Market Indicators as of 12 Dec 2013 BI Rate 7.50% JCI 4,214 IDR 12,023 Inflation (YoY) Nov -13 8.37% Inflation (MoM) Nov-13 0.12%

Recording a trade surplus The trade balance was in surplus at USD42.4 million in October 2013 compared to a deficit of USD657 million in the previous month. Exports reached USD15.72 billion, or up 6.87%, the first time that exports have posted year-on-year growth since April 2012. Imports, meanwhile, edged up 1.06% to USD15.67 billion. Imports of consumption goods dipped 1.78% whereas imports of capital goods slumped 17.14%. An improvement in the trade balance is hoped to trim the current account deficit going forward.

Trade balance mengalami surplus Trade balance per Oktober 2013 surplus sebesar US$42,4 juta, dari sebelumnya defisit US$657 juta pada bulan September. Ekspor mencapai US$15,72 miliar mengalami peningkatan sebesar 6,87% yang merupakan pertumbuhan year on year positif pertama sejak April 2012. Sementara itu impor mengalami peningkatan tidak signifikan sebesar 1,06% dibanding September, mencapai US$15,67 miliar. Impor barang konsumsi menurun sebesar 1,78% sementara impor barang modal mengalami penurunan signifikan sebesar 17,14%. Perbaikan pada trade balance diharapkan mendorong perbaikan current account defisit Indonesia.

Exhibit 1. Trade Balance 10%

Domestic Bonds Outstanding as of 12 Dec 2013 Government Bonds IDR1,006.84 tn Corporate Bonds IDR216.69 tn

2000 1500

5%

1000 500 0 -500

Trading Volume in November 2013 Government Bonds IDR174.93 tn Corporate Bonds IDR10.14 tn

-5%

-1000 -1500

-10%

IDR trillion

0%

-2000 -2500

-15%

Benchmark Yields as of 12 Dec 2013 FR0066 (5 year) 8.043% FR0063 (10 year) 8.604% FR0064 (15 year) 9.093% FR0065 (20 year) 9.165%

-3000 Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Trade Balance

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Import (yoy growth)

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Export (yoy growth)

Source : Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Mid YTM

Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3405 [email protected] Ayesha Ardelia (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3406 [email protected] Rifki Rizal (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3404 [email protected]

www.danareksa.com Bloomberg Ticker: DFMJ

Maintaining their holdings Month-on-month inflation was relatively low in October and November 2013 at 0.09% and 0.12%, respectively. On a year-on-year comparison, inflation reached 8.37% in November. On 12 November 2013, the BI rate was raised another 25 bps to 7.5%. Foreign holdings of government bonds edged up from IDR318.80 trillion as of 19 November 2013 to a high of IDR326.08 trillion as of 25 November 2013. Overall, the proportion of foreign holdings of government bonds to the overall bonds outstanding increased by 0.33% to 32.5%.

Menjaga proporsi Inflasi bulanan pada bulan Oktober maupun November 2013 relatif rendah yaitu masingmasing sebesar 0,09% dan 0,12% dengan inflasi tahunan pada bulan November sebesar 8,37%. Per 12 November 2013, Bank Indonesia kembali menaikkan BI rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 7,5%. Kepemilikan asing terhadap obligasi pemerintah berangsur-angsur meningkat dari Rp318,80 triliun pada 19 November 2013 hingga mencapai titik tertinggi Rp326,08 triliun pada 25 November 2013. Secara proporsi terjadi peningkatan sebesar 0,33% menjadi 32,5% terhadap outstanding obligasi.

NOVEMBER 2013

Growth in the issuance of corporate bonds is sensitive to changes in the interest rate In general, the growth in the issuance of corporate bonds is sensitive to changes in the interest rate. In 2008, the global financial crisis triggered a sharp increase in the FASBI Overnight Rate and the Government bonds yield. With the increase in the SUN yield - which is the benchmark for corporate bond issuances - investors demanded higher yields to invest in corporate bonds. As a result, corporate bond issuances declined in 2008 and the total outstanding corporate bonds also declined from the beginning of the year as maturing bonds outpaced the new bonds issued.

Pertumbuhan penerbitan obligasi korporasi terpengaruh tingkat suku bunga Secara umum, pertumbuhan penerbitan obligasi korporasi dipengaruhi oleh tingkat suku bunga. Pada tahun 2008, krisis finansial global menyebabkan kenaikan tajam FASBI Overnight Rate dan yield obligasi Pemerintah. Naiknya yield SUN yang merupakan benchmark obligasi korporasi menyebabkan naiknya required yield investor untuk berinvestasi di obligasi korporasi. Hasilnya, penerbitan obligasi korporasi mengalami penurunan di tahun 2008 dan terjadi penurunan outstanding obligasi korporasi.

The multifinance and banking sectors to dominate the maturing bonds in 2014 Maturing corporate bonds (and sukuk) will reach IDR41 trillion in 2014, half of them maturing in 1H14. Maturing corporate bonds from the multifinance sector (excluding PPGD and SMFP) will reach IDR17.4 trillion or almost half of the total maturing corporate bonds in 2014.

Jatuh tempo didominasi obligasi multifinance dan bank Pada tahun 2014, obligasi (dan sukuk) korporasi yang akan jatuh tempo diperkirakan akan mencapai Rp41 triliun. Dari jumlah tersebut, sebagian dari obligasi korporasi akan jatuh tempo di 1H14. Obligasi korporasi dari sektor multifinance (di luar PPGD dan SMFP) yang akan jatuh tempo mencapai Rp17,4 triliun atau hampir setengah dari jatuh tempo obligasi korporasi keseluruhan.

Exhibit 2. IDR corporate bonds issuance growth v.s. changes in interest rates 4.0%

150%

d(Avg. FASBI ON)

137%

d(Avg. BI Rate)

3.0%

d(Avg. YC10Y)

100%

Corp Bond Gross Issuance YoY Growth (RHS)

2.0% 32% 1.0%

50% 16%

53%

0.0%

0%

-1.0%

-9% -50%

-2.0%

-58%

-3.0%

-100% 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source : Bloomberg

2

NOVEMBER 2013

Bonds Market Review The year-to-date total return was a negative 11.76%. Government bonds posted a negative total year-to-date return of 14.78%, although corporate bonds still posted a positive YTD total return of 3.04%. On the currency front, the rupiah weakened relative to the US dollar to IDR11,965 per USD on 30 November 2013 from IDR11,274 per USD at the end of October.

Year to date total return mencapai negatif 11,76% dengan obligasi pemerintah sebesar negatif 14,78%. Sementara itu obligasi korporasi masih mencatatkan YTD total return yang positif 3,04%. Dari sisi nilai tukar, Rupiah melemah terhadap US$ menjadi Rp11.965 per dolar AS pada 30 November 2013, dibandingkan Rp11.274 pada akhir bulan Oktober.

Weaker monthly performance The domestic bonds market posted weaker performance in November 2013, recording a negative return of 6.36% after posting a positive return of 5.97% in the previous month. The capital gain was a negative 7.16% and the return from interest income was 0.80%.

Kinerja mencatatkan return negatif Pasar obligasi domestik menunjukkan kinerja yang menurun selama November 2013, mencatatkan return negatif 6,36% dibandingkan dengan return bulan sebelumnya sebesar positif 5,97%. Return dari capital gain sebesar negatif 7,16%, sedangkan return diperoleh dari pembayaran kupon sebesar 0,8%.

The government bonds yield index rose significantly The composite bonds yield index reached 8.9% in late November 2013. For government bonds, the yield index reached 8.73%, while for corporate bonds the yield index reached 9.96%. The government bonds yield curve shifted up by 1.04% on average.

Peningkatan signifikan indeks yield obligasi pemerintah Indeks yield obligasi gabungan sebesar 8,90% pada akhir November 2013. Untuk obligasi Pemerintah, indeks yield gabungan sebesar 8,73%, sementara untuk obligasi korporasi sebesar 9,96%. Untuk obligasi Pemerintah, yield curve di semua tenor mengalami peningkatan dengan rata-rata sebesar 1,04%.

Exhibit 3. Changes in the yield curve 1.40% 1.35% 1.30% 1.25% 1.20% 1.15% 1.10% 1.05%

31 year

30 year

29 year

28 year

27 year

26 year

25 year

24 year

23 year

22 year

21 year

20 year

19 year

18 year

17 year

16 year

15 year

14 year

13 year

12 year

11 year

9 year

10 year

8 year

7 year

6 year

5 year

4 year

3 year

2 year

1 year

1.00%

Term to Maturity Source : Danareksa Estimate

The short tenors outperformed In November 2013, the total return on medium tenor bonds (bonds maturing in more than 3 years) showed a greater decline than that on short tenor bonds. For the short tenors, the month-on-month total return was negative 1.62% while for the long tenors the month-on-month total return was negative 7.04%.

Obligasi jangka pendek mengalami penurunan lebih rendah Return obligasi bertenor panjang (obligasi dengan tenor lebih dari 3 tahun) mengalami penurunan yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan obligasi bertenor pendek pada November 2013. Return dari masing-masing tenor sebesar negatif 1,62% untuk tenor pendek dan negatif 7,04% untuk tenor panjang.

3

NOVEMBER 2013

Bond Market Review Government bonds posted a bigger capital loss Amidst weaker market conditions, government bonds posted a larger loss than corporate bonds (a 7% loss for government bonds vis-à-vis a 2.77% loss for corporate bonds). The capital loss for government bonds was 7.81%, or far exceeding the capital loss of 3.52% for corporate bonds. The return from coupon payments was higher, however, for government bonds (0.81%) than it was for corporate bonds (0.75%).

Obligasi Pemerintah turun lebih dalam Melemahnya kondisi pasar memberikan dampak yang lebih signifikan terhadap obligasi Pemerintah dibanding obligasi korporasi tercermin dari loss obligasi pemerintah sebesar 7% dan obligasi korporasi sebesar 2,77%. Capital loss obligasi Pemerintah sebesar 7,81% lebih dalam daripada obligasi korporasi sebesar 3,52%. Akan tetapi, untuk return yang diperoleh dari pembayaran kupon pemerintah lebih tinggi dari obligasi korporasi yaitu sebesar 0,81% dan 0,75%.

The corporate bonds of Finance companies recorded the smallest losses Of the corporate bonds, the bonds of Finance companies recorded the smallest loss at 1.88%. By comparison, the bonds of the Telecommunications companies recorded the largest losses (5.24%).

Obligasi korporasi sektor Finance mencatatkan loss terkecil Di antara obligasi korporasi, sektor Finance merupakan sektor yang menghasilkan loss terendah sebesar 1,88%. Sedangkan sektor dengan loss tertinggi yaitu sektor Telecommunication sebesar 5,24%.

Danareksa SMF’s KIK EBA was the best performer

Kinerja terbaik diperoleh Efek Beragun Aset Danareksa SMF II - KPR BTN Kelas A Efek Beragun Aset Danareksa SMF II - KPR BTN Kelas A (DSMF02) memperoleh return 12,3%, dan merupakan obligasi dengan performa terbaik selama November 2013. Sedangkan obligasi dengan performa terendah dicatat oleh Obligasi I BW Plantation Tahun 2010 (BWPT01), dengan return negatif 28,96%.

Danareksa SMF’s KIK EBA (DSMF02) gave a 12.3% MoM return, making it the best performing corporate bond in November 2013. In contrast, the worst performing bond was BW Plantation’s Bonds I/2010 (BWPT01) which gave a negative return of 28.96%. Average monthly trading in the secondary market went up Average monthly trading in the secondary market reached IDR154.78 trillion in November 2013 or up by IDR2.83 trillion from IDR151.95 trillion in October 2013. Trading in government bonds reached IDR143.81 trillion, or up from IDR140.67 trillion the previous month. Trading in corporate bonds reached IDR11.17 trillion, or up from IDR 11.28 trillion in the previous month.

Rata-rata transaksi bulanan per November 2013 meningkat Rata-rata total volume transaksi obligasi di pasar sekunder selama setahun terakhir mencapai Rp154,78 triliun pada akhir November 2013 atau meningkat Rp2,83 triliun dari sebelumnya Rp151,95 triliun pada Oktober 2013. Obligasi pemerintah tercatat sebesar Rp143,81 triliun dari Rp140,67 triliun di bulan sebelumnya sedangkan di sisi perdagangan obligasi korporasi turun menjadi Rp11,17 triliun dari Rp11,28 triliun di bulan sebelumnya.

4

NOVEMBER 2013

Bond Market Review FIFA11C’s bond and ORI0010 were the most actively traded bonds Among the government bonds, ORI0010 was the most actively traded bond in the secondary market with total trading of IDR31.8 trillion. Then came FR0070, FR0071, and FR0068 with total trading of IDR26.98 trillion, IDR26.57 trillion, and IDR17.97 trillion, respectively. Of the corporate bonds, FIFA’s Bond (FIFA11C) was the most actively traded with trading reaching IDR2.3 trillion. The second most actively traded corporate bond was Panin’s Bond (PNBN04SB) with total trading of IDR544.4 billion.

ORI0010 dan FIFA11C teraktif diperdagangkan Di antara seri obligasi pemerintah, ORI0010 merupakan obligasi pemerintah yang paling aktif diperdagangkan di pasar sekunder, dengan volume transaksi mencapai Rp31,8 triliun. Di posisi berikutnya ada FR0070, FR0071, dan FR0068 dengan volume masing-masing sebesar Rp26,98 triliun, Rp26,57 triliun, dan Rp17,97 triliun. Di antara obligasi korporasi, Obligasi Federal International Finance XI Tahun 2011 Seri C (FIFA11C) merupakan obligasi paling aktif diperdagangkan dengan volume transaksi mencapai Rp2,3 triliun disusul Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Panin III Tahun 2010 (PNBN04SB) dengan volume mencapai Rp544,4 miliar.

Exhibit 4. Trading Volume 250,000 Avg Monthly Transaction for Corporate Bonds : IDR11,169.88 trillion Avg Monthly Transaction for Governemnt Bonds : IDR143,614.75 trillion

IDR trillion

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13 Mar-13

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Source : IDX process data & Danareksa Estimate

5

NOVEMBER 2013

Bond Market Review New Issuance of Corporate Bonds in Nov 2013 No. Bond ID Bond Name

Issued Date

Listed Maturity Coupon Date Date

Rating Amount Rate (%) (IDRbn)

1 BNGA01ACN2

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahap II 20-Nov-13 21-Nov-13 20-Nov-15 8.75% Tahun 2013 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A

idAAA/ AAA(idn)

285

2 BNGA01BCN2


idAAA/ AAA(idn)

315

3 BNGA01CCN2


idAAA/ AAA(idn)

850

4 ASDF02ACN2

Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance 26-Nov-13 27-Nov-13 6-Dec-14 8.75% dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A

idAA+/ AAA(idn)

545

5 ASDF02BCN2

Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance 26-Nov-13 27-Nov-13 26-Nov-16 9.50% dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A

idAA+/ AAA(idn)

870

6 ASDF02CCN2

Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance 26-Nov-13 27-Nov-13 26-Nov-17 9.75% dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A

idAA+/ AAA(idn)

385

Total Issuance Nov 2013

3,250

Source: IDX

Maturity of Corporate Bonds in Nov 2013 No.

Bond ID

Bond Name

Maturity

Date

Obligasi Clipan Finance Indonesia III Tahun 2011 Seri B

08-Nov-13

Rating

Amount

Rate (%)

Coupon

(IDR bn)

1

CFIN03B

9.75

idA+

123

Total Nov 2013

123

Source: IDX

Maturity of Corporate Bonds in Dec 2013 No.

Bond ID

Bond Name

Maturity Date

Rating

Amount

Rate (%)

Coupon

(IDR bn)

1

ADMF01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri A

16-Dec-13

7.75

idAA+

325

2

SMFP01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I SMF Tahap I Tahun 2011

21-Dec-13

8.23

AA(idn)

80

Berjaminan Seri B

3

VRNA01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Verena Multi Finance Tahap I

21-Dec-13

7.25

idA

50

Tahun 2012 Seri A

4

BTPN03A

22-Dec-13

8.75

AA-(idn)

400

Total Dec 2013

855

Obligasi Bank BTPN III Tahun 2010 Seri A

Source: IDX

6

NOVEMBER 2013

Bond Market Review Transaction Activitiy in Nov 2013 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity of Less than 3 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion No Bond ID

Bond Name

Maturity Rating Coupon Date

Last Trade

Last Price

Last Vol YTM (IDRbn)

Freq

10.50 22-Nov-13 100.00 10.50 310.00

4

Maturity < 3 years 1 ADMF02BCN2 2 FIFA01CCN1 3 TAFS03B 4 BDMN02B 5 SMFP02ACN1 6 ASDF01BCN1 7 BWPT01 8 BEXI01BCN3 9 DILD01A 10 TRAC02C 11 ADMF01BCN3 12 PNBN05 13 IMFI01BCN2 14 BCAF01SB 15 NISP01CCN1 16 SIMP01 17 AIRJ01C 18 PPGD11A 19 TLKM02A 20 TAFS02B 21 PPKT02 22 SIKMAPI01B 23 ADMF01CCN2 24 IMFI04C 25 SANF01BCN1 26 BNII01ACN1 27 NISP01BCN1 28 ISAT07A 29 BTPN01ACN3 30 WOMF05D 31 ADMF01BCN1 32 ADMF05D

Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap II 24-Oct-16 Tahun 2013 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International Finance 20-Apr-15 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri C Toyota Astra Financial Serv ices III Tahun 2013 Seri B 17-May-16 Obligasi II Bank Danamon Tahun 2010 Seri B 9-Dec-15 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya Finansial 27-Dec-15 Tahap I Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan 21-Feb-15 Tingkat Bunga Teteap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri B Obligasi I BW Plantation Tahun 2010 16-Nov-15 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank I 23-May-16 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri B Obligasi PT Intiland Development Tahun 2013 Seri A 9-Jul-16 Obligasi Serasi Autoraya II Tahun 2011 Seri C 5-Jul-15 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance 27-Sep-15 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2012 Seri B Obligasi Bank Panin IV Tahun 2010 9-Nov-15 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance dengan 8-May-16 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B Obligasi Subordinasi BCA Finance I Tahun 2010 23-Mar-15 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I OCBC NISP Tahap I Tahun 2013 19-Feb-16 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri C Obligasi Salim Ivomas Pratama I Tahun 2009 1-Dec-14 Obligasi TPJ I Tahun 2008 Seri C 13-Mar-15 Perum Pegadaian XI Tahun 2006 Seri A 23-May-16 Obligasi II Telkom Tahun 2010 Seri A 6-Jul-15 Obligasi Toyota Astra Financial Services II Tahun 2012 5-Jun-15 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B Obligasi Pupuk Kaltim II Tahun 2009 4-Dec-14 Sukuk Ijarah Mitra Adiperkasa I Tahun 2009 Seri B 16-Dec-14 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance 4-May-15 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2012 Seri C Indomobil Finance Indonesia IV Tahun 2011 Seri C 9-Jun-15 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I SAN Finance Dengan 25-Sep-16 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap I 2011 Seri A 6-Dec-14 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I OCBC NISP Tahap I Tahun 2013 19-Feb-15 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B Obligasi Indosat VI Tahun 2009 Seri A 8-Dec-14 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN Dengan 5-Mar-16 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri A Obligasi V WOM Finance Tahun 2011 Seri D 4-Mar-15 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance 16-Dec-14 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri B Adira Dinamika Multi Finance V Tahun 2011 Seri D 27-May-15

idAA+ idAA+

7.65 27-Nov-13

AAA(Idn) idAA+ idAA

7.60 29-Nov-13 96.82 9.00 29-Nov-13 99.00 7.30 29-Nov-13 100.08

9.05 137.00 9.55 94.00 7.26 90.00

8 19 2

idAA+

8.00 29-Nov-13

9.71 88.30

18

idA idAAA

10.68 27-Nov-13 6.40 14-Nov-13

71.00 30.86 80.50 94.77 8.73 70.00

20 3

idA idA+ idAA+

9.75 11-Nov-13 100.00 9.75 60.00 10.20 27-Nov-13 100.02 10.18 50.00 7.75 18-Nov-13 95.18 10.64 50.00

5 2 9

idAA/AA(idn) idA

95.75 10.97 300.40

98.04

36

9.00 28-Nov-13 8.25 18-Nov-13

99.90 9.05 50.00 96.00 10.10 50.00

5 1

idAA idAAA

11.20 20-Nov-13 7.40 22-Nov-13

99.90 11.27 48.00 97.40 8.69 47.00

4 11

idAA A(idn) idAA+ idAAA AAA(idn)/idAA

11.65 13.25 13.10 9.60 7.50

idAA idA+(sy) idAA+

29-Nov-13 13-Nov-13 20-Nov-13 29-Nov-13 21-Nov-13

102.98 105.04 108.50 101.00 98.54

8.53 9.18 9.26 8.92 8.52

33.00 30.00 30.00 29.00 21.90

5 3 6 5 6

10.75 29-Nov-13 101.24 13.00 29-Nov-13 103.59 7.75 11-Nov-13 98.77

9.45 21.00 9.36 20.00 8.64 20.00

9 4 2

idA 10.65 22-Nov-13 102.53 idAA-/AA(idn) 9.75 27-Nov-13 100.20

8.88 20.00 9.67 20.00

4 4

idAA+/AAA(idn) 7.75 27-Nov-13 idAAA 6.90 13-Nov-13

99.00 98.00

8.78 16.00 8.58 15.00

5 3

idAA+ AA-(idn)

11.25 8-Nov-13 103.25 7.65 25-Nov-13 95.50

8.08 13.40 9.88 12.00

3 4

AA(idn) idAA+

11.00 22-Nov-13 102.30 8.00 29-Nov-13 98.39

9.08 11.90 9.63 11.05

2 4

idAA+

10.00 11-Nov-13 101.11

9.22 10.00

2

Source: PLTO IDX

7

NOVEMBER 2013

Bond Market Review Transaction Activitiy in Nov 2013 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity 3 - 5 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion No Bond ID

Bond Name


Last Trade

Last Price

Last Vol Freq YTM (IDRbn)

10.50 27-Nov-13 9.90 29-Nov-13 7.75 14-Nov-13

99.90 80.00 92.55

10.53 16.80 10.05

8.90 28-Nov-13 100.02

8.89

Maturity > 3 < 5 yrs

1 PNBN04SB Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Panin III Tahun 2010 9-Nov-17 idAA-/A+(idn) 2 SIAGII02 Sukuk Ijarah Aneka Gas Industri II Tahun 2012 18-Dec-17 A-(idn) 3 BNGA01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahap I 30-Oct-17 idAAA/ Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B AAA(idn) 4 JSMR01CCN1S Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Jasa Marga Tahap I 27-Sep-18 idAA Tahun 2013 Seri S Seri C 5 JPFA01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I JAPFA Tahap I Tahun 2012 12-Jan-17 idA/A+(idn) 6 MEDC01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Medco Energi Internasional 15-Mar-18 idAA- Tahap II Tahun 2013 7 APLN01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Agung Podomoro Land 27-Jun-18 idA Tahap I Tahun 2013 8 SMFP02BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya Finansial 27-Dec-17 idAA Tahap I Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B 9 BMTR01B Obligasi Global Mediacom I Tahun 2012 Seri B 12-Jul-17 idA+ 10 SIAISA01 Sukuk Ijarah TPS Food I Tahun 2013 5-Apr-18 idA-(sy) 11 ADMF01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance 16-Dec-16 idAA+ Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri C 12 INDF06 Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur VI Tahun 2012 31-May-17 idAA+ Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap 13 SSIA01B Obligasi Surya Semesta Internusa I Tahun 2012 Seri B 6-Nov-17 idA 14 BEXI05D Obligasi Indonesia Eximbank I Tahun 2010 Seri D 8-Jul-17 idAAA 15 SISSMM01 Sukuk Ijarah Sumberdaya Sewatama I Tahun 2012 30-Nov-17 idA(sy) 16 SMKMYOR02 Sukuk Mudharabah II Mayora Indah Tahun 2012 9-May-17 idAA-(sy) 17 JPFA01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I JAPFA Tahap II Tahun 2012 1-Feb-17 idA/A+(idn) 18 ADMF02DCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap I 1-Mar-18 idAA+ Tahun 2013 Seri A 19 MEDC03 Obligasi Medco Energi Internasional III Tahun 2012 19-Jun-17 idAA- Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap 20 BMRI01 Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Mandiri I Tahun 2009 11-Dec-16 idAA+ 21 ROTI01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ROTI Tahap I Tahun 2013 11-Jun-18 idAA- 22 DILD01B Obligasi PT Intiland Development Tahun 2013 Seri B 9-Jul-18 idA 23 ADHI01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ADHI Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A 15-Mar-18 idA 24 PPLN09A Obligasi PLN IX Tahun 2007 Seri A 10-Jul-17 idAA+ 25 GIAA01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Garuda Indonesia 5-Jul-18 A(idn) Tahap I Tahun 2013

554.40 23 384.50 27 220.10 17 170.00

5

9.90 11-Nov-13 8.85 22-Nov-13

99.60 99.00

10.05 9.13

145.00 13 144.20 5

9.25 22-Nov-13

93.50

11.07

134.00 17

7.50 28-Nov-13

93.20

9.53

80.00

10.50 15-Nov-13 103.01 10.25 29-Nov-13 101.04 9.00 21-Nov-13 100.00

9.52 9.95 9.00

73.80 5 65.00 8 61.10 10

94.73

9.00

60.00

5

100.04 103.40 101.10 95.50 109.52 100.02

9.29 8.90 9.27 1.33 6.61 8.89

45.00 40.00 39.50 37.50 36.00 30.00

6 2 9 7 3 2

8.75 28-Nov-13 100.00

8.75

22.53

7

9.07 8.61 9.99 10.08 9.20 9.24

20.00 20.00 20.00 17.30 12.00 10.00

2 2 2 8 4 2

7.25 13-Nov-13 9.30 10.00 9.60 - 9.90 8.90

11.85 8.00 10.00 8.10 10.40 9.25

13-Nov-13 11-Nov-13 28-Nov-13 21-Nov-13 7-Nov-13 6-Nov-13

11-Nov-13 11-Nov-13 6-Nov-13 25-Nov-13 12-Nov-13 6-Nov-13

107.40 97.69 100.02 93.15 103.70 100.02

8

Source: PLTO IDX

8

NOVEMBER 2013

Bond Market Review Transaction Activitiy in Nov 2013 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity more than 5 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion No Bond ID

Bond Name


Last Trade

Last Price

Last Vol YTM (IDRbn)

Freq

7.90 20-Nov-13 9.40 21-Nov-13

87.95 92.98

9.89 285.00 11.00 230.00

45 10

9.25 25-Nov-13

92.25

11.05 146.00

14

9.96 10.06 6.94 8.90

122.00 90.00 80.00 22.00

28 12 4 3

9.91 15.00 10.04 14.00

6 7

Maturity > 5 yrs

1 BBTN01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTN Tahap II Tahun 2013 27-Mar-23 idAA/AA(idn) 2 PNBN01SBCN1Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I 20-Dec-19 idAA- Bank Panin Tahap I Tahun 2012 3 BNII01SBCN2 Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII 31-Oct-19 idAA/AA(idn) Tahap II Tahun 2012 4 ADHI01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ADHI Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B 15-Mar-20 idA 5 ANTM01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Antam Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri A 14-Dec-18 idAA 6 DSMF02 Efek Beragun Aset Danareksa SMF II - KPR BTN Kelas A 10-Dec-19 idAAA 7 MYOR04 Obligasi IV Mayora Indah Tahun 2012 Dengan 9-May-19 idAA- Tingkat Bunga Tetap 8 SIKPPLN03B Sukuk Ijarah PLN IV Tahun 2010 Seri B 12-Jan-20 idAA+(sy) 9 PPGD01DCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Perum Pegadaian Tahap II 14-Feb-19 idAA+ Tahun 2012 Seri D

8.50 8.38 11.00 8.50

15-Nov-13 93.20 29-Nov-13 93.40 7-Nov-13 120.02 22-Nov-13 98.29

12.55 29-Nov-13 112.00 7.75 26-Nov-13 90.80

Source: PLTO IDX

9

NOVEMBER 2013

Bond Market Review Selected Multifinance Companies (3Q2013) No. Company Name Current Outstanding Rating Bond (IDR bn)

Year

Key Financial Total Total Total Total Operating Net Interest Net Income Assets Liability Equity Revenue Income Income (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn)

1 PT BFI Finance (BFIN) A+ 1,233 3Q13 8,121 4,848 3,273 495 169 40 3Q12 6,447 3,725 2,723 400 156 94 Growth 25.95% 30.15% 20.21% 23.73% 7.85% -57.47% 2 PT Adira Dinamika AA+ 11,330 3Q13 29,237 23,670 5,567 2,079 638 882 Multifinance (ADMF) 3Q12 22,948 18,213 4,734 1,719 480 787 Growth 27.41% 29.96% 17.59% 20.96% 33.05% 12.11% 3 PT Clipan Finance (CFIN) A+ 629 3Q13 5,876 3,199 2,678 261 137 156 3Q12 5,091 2,719 2,372 221 111 134 Growth 15.42% 17.64% 12.87% 18.33% 23.23% 16.31%

Profitability

136 124 8.98% 478 359 33.21% 105 85 24.44%

Solvability

No. Company Name Year Operating Net ROAA ROAE Cost to Margin (%) Interest (%) (%) Income Margin (%) Ratio (%)

Profit Margin (%)

Debt to Debt to Net Equity Asset Gearing

1 PT BFI Finance (BFIN) 3Q13 39.41 17.67 7.21 17.51 59.54 27.38 141.43 3Q12 41.38 16.19 8.35 19.19 48.42 31.09 130.07 2 PT Adira Dinamika 3Q13 38.59 - 5.92 30.01 42.30 23.00 382.13 Multifinance (ADMF) 3Q12 34.26 - 8.21 33.14 52.16 20.88 347.06 3 PT Clipan Finance (CFIN) 3Q13 73.32 10.71 6.81 14.78 18.18 40.41 114.15 3Q12 74.55 11.61 7.17 16.32 18.59 38.42 109.52

57.01 54.93

128.59 123.91

72.76 71.60

368.19 312.23

52.02 51.04

109.82 100.28

Sources: Bloomberg

Ayesha Ardelia (Ext. 3406)

10

NOVEMBER 2013

Bond Market Review Selected Banking Companies (3Q2012) No. Company Name Current Rating

Outstanding Bond (IDR bn)

Year Total Assets Total Liability (IDR bn) (IDR bn)

Key Financial Total Equity (IDR bn)

Net Interest Revenue Income (IDR bn) (IDR bn)

Net Income (IDR bn)

1 PT Bank Tabungan AA- 5,385 3Q13 66,204 56,655 9,549 1,944 1,834 Pensiun Nasional (BTPN) 3Q12 56,483 49,288 7,196 1,664 1,591 Growth 17.21% 14.95% 32.70% 16.85% 15.31% 2 PT Bank Panin (PNBN) AA- 8,415 3Q13 153,177 133,764 19,413 2,055 1,517 3Q12 141,478 123,745 17,734 2,022 1,384 Growth 8.27% 8.10% 9.47% 1.65% 9.62% 3 PT Bank BII (BNII) idAA+/ 7,000 3Q13 129,680 117,725 11,955 2,216 1,530 AAA(idn) 3Q12 105,507 96,616 8,891 1,890 1,369 Growth 22.91% 21.85% 34.46% 17.24% 11.71% 4 PT Bank Permata (BNLI) idAA+ 4,750 3Q13 154,523 140,802 13,721 1,712 1,402 3Q12 114,774 104,568 10,206 1,517 1,269 Growth 34.63% 34.65% 34.44% 12.90% 10.52% 5 PT Bank CIMB idAAA/ 6,480 3Q13 218,225 193,368 24,857 3,545 2,596 Niaga (BNGA) AAA(idn) 3Q12 190,622 169,252 21,370 3,169 2,481 Growth 14.48% 14.25% 16.31% 11.86% 4.64% 6 PT Bank Mayapada idBBB+ 850 3Q13 21,168 19,080 2,088 273 263 Internasional Tbk (MAYA) 3Q12 14,737 12,875 1,862 205 197 Growth 43.64% 48.19% 12.15% 33.33% 33.07%

No. Company Name

Year

Profitability (%) Leverage (%) Asset Quality

610 521 17.09% 595 522 13.85% 418 330 26.44% 504 381 32.20% 1,078 1,118 -3.56% 111 93 18.69%

Coverage (%)

Operating Net Profit ROAA ROAE Debt to Debt to Net NPL (IDR NPL to LDR Equity Margin Interest Margin Equity Aseet Gearing bn) T.Loans to Asset Margin (%) (%) 1 PT Bank Tabungan 3Q13 39.72 12.88 31.37 3.79 27.76 14.64 2.11 (155.78) 282,388 0.62 93.30 Pensiun Nasional (BTPN) 3Q12 39.33 12.98 31.31 3.77 30.43 78.03 9.94 (138.94) 242,124 0.65 87.09 2 PT Bank Panin (PNBN) 3Q13 42.09 4.50 28.95 1.54 1.54 72.49 9.19 (51.31) 1,499,448 1.34 95.90 3Q12 37.33 4.64 25.84 1.73 1.73 115.19 14.44 (50.57) 1,417,937 1.50 94.13 3 PT Bank BII (BNII) 3Q13 32.67 5.55 18.84 1.18 13.50 121.07 11.16 (49.80) 1,474,017 1.61 94.99 3Q12 23.65 5.88 17.47 1.05 12.67 134.84 11.36 (69.46) 1,471,568 1.94 95.05 4 PT Bank Permata (BNLI) 3Q13 33.27 4.44 29.44 1.19 13.35 69.38 6.16 (66.56) 1,306,845 1.11 95.30 3Q12 31.81 5.10 25.14 1.24 13.49 57.28 5.09 (57.10) - - 104.69 5 PT Bank CIMB 3Q13 41.51 5.57 30.41 2.12 18.86 80.89 9.21 (54.23) 3,510,631 2.25 95.62 Niaga (BNGA) 3Q12 47.80 5.99 35.28 2.23 20.06 74.42 8.34 (69.20) 3,271,154 2.35 95.28 6 PT Bank Mayapada 3Q13 48.42 6.04 40.60 1.86 16.87 32.93 3.25 (117.04) 149,849 0.94 87.76 Internasional Tbk (MAYA) 3Q12 54.09 6.12 45.61 2.68 20.92 0.17 0.02 (129.37) 199,954 1.90 82.71

Sources: Bloomberg

6.93 7.85 7.89 7.98 10.85 11.87 11.26 11.25 8.78 8.92 10.14 7.92


11

NOVEMBER 2013

Bond Market Review Property & Construction (2Q2013) No. Company Name Current Outstanding Rating Bond (IDR bn)

Key Financial Year Total Assets Total Liability Total Equity Revenue EBITDA (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn)

1 PT Agung Podomoro idA 3,600 3Q13 19,289 12,479 6,810 1,054 259 Land Tbk (APLN) 3Q12 14,532 8,506 6,026 1,199 416 Growth 32.7% 46.7% 13.0% -12.1% -37.8% 2 PT Surya Semesta idA 700 3Q13 5,612 3,198 2,414 1,001 220 Internusa (SSIA) 3Q12 3,964 2,218 1,745 892 233 Growth 41.6% 44.2% 38.3% 12.2% -5.3% 3 PT Jasa Marga (Persero) - 3Q13 29,316 18,933 10,383 2,315 619 262 (JSMR) idAA 3Q12 23,032 13,611 9,420 2,320 661 Growth 27.3% 39.1% 10.2% -0.2% -6.5%

No. Company Name

Year

Profitability (%) Operating Margin

Liquidity (x)

Net Income (IDR bn) 150 245 -38.8% 104 179 -41.8% 378 -30.8%

Leverage (%) Coverage (x) Interest Coverage

Debt to EBITDA

1 PT Agung Podomoro 3Q13 27.75 15.74 5.55 16.44 1.41 0.84 80.06 30.17 35.12 (2.48) Land Tbk (APLN) 3Q12 16.42 18.24 6.88 15.40 2.08 1.24 61.41 28.42 29.95 2.45 2 PT Surya Semesta 3Q13 18.89 14.63 15.53 41.21 1.92 1.28 58.99 24.38 (19.17) 6.63 Internusa (SSIA) 3Q12 21.42 16.88 15.80 40.92 1.59 0.92 33.83 14.23 (37.35) 15.10 3 PT Jasa Marga (Persero) 3Q13 28.43 18.62 5.97 17.18 0.65 0.62 115.72 44.23 76.51 2.97 (JSMR) 3Q12 34.52 28.51 6.45 17.39 1.14 1.05 101.36 41.40 55.08 2.30

3.34 3.02

Net ROAA ROAE Current Quick Debt to Income Ratio Ratio Equity Margin

Debt to Asset

Net Gearing

1.34 0.73 3.68 3.41

Sources: Bloomberg


12

NOVEMBER 2013

Bond Market Review Oil & Gas (2Q2013) No. Company Name Current Rating



Net Income (IDR bn)

1 PT Aneka Tambang (ANTM) idAA 3,000 2Q13 20,160 7,403 12,756 2,786 420 2Q12 15,609 5,292 10,318 2,028 196 Growth 29.2% 39.9% 23.6% 37.4% 113.9% 2 PT AKR Corporindo (AKRA) idAA 1,500 2Q13 12,055 7,088 4,967 5,178 254 2Q12 9,572 5,587 3,985 5,575 289 Growth 25.9% 26.9% 24.7% -7.1% -12.1%

No. Company Name

Year


Liquidity (x)

Leverage (%)


Debt to Asset

(89) 97 -191.8% 193 137 40.9%

Coverage (x) Net Gearing

Interest Coverage

1 PT Aneka Tambang 2Q13 (1.54) (3.19) 16.16 25.06 2.46 1.58 38.90 24.61 13.80 (0.54) (ANTM) 2Q12 2.44 4.77 9.87 13.67 4.86 3.47 31.24 20.65 (19.38) 0.80 2 PT AKR Corporindo 2Q13 3.74 3.73 6.50 17.13 1.42 1.05 64.80 26.70 34.12 6.14 (AKRA) 2Q12 4.22 2.46 16.26 38.21 1.25 0.95 55.91 23.28 11.39 10.23

Debt to EBITDA 2.61 1.78 3.04 2.10

Consumer Goods (2Q2013) No. Company Name Current Rating



Net Income (IDR bn)

1 PT TPS Food (AISA) idA- 600 2Q13 4,358 2,186 2,172 929 182 2Q12 3,698 1,738 1,960 709 129 Growth 17.8% 25.8% 10.8% 31.1% 41.3% 2 PT Mayora Indah (MYOR) idAA- 250 2Q13 8,676 5,048 3,628 3,110 419 2Q12 7,800 5,134 2,665 2,875 358 Growth 11.2% -1.7% 36.1% 8.2% 17.1%

No. Company Name

Year


Liquidity (x)

Leverage (%)


Debt to Asset

69 63 9.5% 231 197 17.3%

Coverage (x) Net Gearing

Interest Coverage

Debt to EBITDA

1 PT TPS Food (AISA) 2Q13 17.02 7.38 5.84 13.33 1.98 0.73 79.02 39.38 74.89 3.98 2Q12 15.63 8.84 6.64 16.61 1.77 1.07 79.89 42.34 56.48 2.74 2 PT Mayora Indah (MYOR) 2Q13 10.67 7.44 10.26 27.51 2.86 1.91 84.41 35.29 53.39 6.06 2Q12 10.15 6.85 10.42 27.58 2.27 1.30 143.98 49.20 113.15 5.17

2.95 3.45 1.86 3.15

Sources: Bloomberg


13

NOVEMBER 2013

Appendices

14

NOVEMBER 2013

Appendix Appendix 1. Winners and Losers in Nov 2013

TEN BEST

Bonds Current Maturity Total Outstanding Rating Interest Coupon Date (IDR mn) Return Efek Beragun Aset Danareksa SMF II - KPR BTN Kelas A 11.00% 10-Dec-19 180,565,964,267 idAAA 0.6% Obligasi Global Mediacom I Tahun 2012 Seri B 10.50% 12-Jul-17 1,000,000,000,000 idA+ 0.8% Obligasi Medco Energi Internasional III Tahun 2012 8.75% 19-Jun-17 1,500,000,000,000 idAA- 0.7% Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN dengan 8.25% 3-Aug-17 725,000,000,000 AA-(idn) 0.6% Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2012 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I JAPFA Tahap II Tahun 2012 9.90% 1-Feb-17 250,000,000,000 idA/A+(idn) 0.6% Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ADHI Tahap II 2013 Seri A 8.10% 15-Mar-18 125,000,000,000 idA 0.7% Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Jasa Marga Tahap I 8.90% 27-Sep-18 1,000,000,000,000 idAA 0.7% Obligasi V WOM Finance Tahun 2011 Seri D 11.00% 4-Mar-15 620,000,000,000 AA(idn) 0.8% Tahun 2013 Seri S Seri C Obligasi Salim Ivomas Pratama I Tahun 2009 11.65% 1-Dec-14 452,000,000,000 idAA 0.9% Obligasi PLN IX Tahun 2007 Seri A 10.40% 10-Jul-17 1,500,000,000,000 idAA+ 0.8%

Total Return

11.7% 5.4% 5.5%

12.3% 6.2% 6.1%

5.3%

5.8%

4.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9%

5.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7%

0.5% -0.1%

1.3% 0.7%

TEN WORST

Bonds Current Maturity Total Outstanding Rating Interest Coupon Date (IDR mn) Return Obligasi I BW Plantation Tahun 2010

Price Return

Price Total Return Return

10.68%

16-Nov-15

700,000,000,000 idA

1.45% -30.41% -28.96%

Obligasi I AKR Corporindo Tahun 2012 Seri B

8.75%

21-Dec-19

877,000,000,000 idAA-

0.83% -15.29% -14.47%

Obligasi Indosat VIII Tahun 2012 Seri B

8.88%

27-Jun-22

1,500,000,000,000 idAA+

0.81% -12.83% -12.02%

FR0062

6.38%

15-Apr-42

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Agung Podomoro

9.25%

27-Jun-18

12,000,000,000,000 -

0.66% -11.62% -10.96%

1,200,000,000,000 idA

0.77% -11.56% -10.78%

Land Tahap I Tahun 2013 FR0067

8.75%

15-Feb-44

3,750,000,000,000 -

0.83% -11.19% -10.36%

FR0057

9.50%

15-May-41

13,550,000,000,000 -

1.03% -11.16% -10.13%

FR0065

6.63%

15-May-33

47,850,000,000,000 -

0.94% -10.60% -9.65%

FR0064

6.13%

15-May-28

27,950,000,000,000 -

0.88% -10.51% -9.63%

Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII

9.25%

31-Oct-19

1,000,000,000,000 idAA/AA(idn) 0.73% -10.09% -9.36%

Tahap II Tahun 2012

Appendix 2. Total Return Bond Index MoM (%) Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Sep-13 Composite Governments Corporates Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property and Construction Corporate upper A- Corporate below A- up to BBB- SOE

1.34 1.37 1.19 1.49 1.56 -0.75 2.41 0.83 1.85 1.19 1.19 1.84

5.97 6.63 2.34 1.98 2.91 2.93 1.31 1.38 2.26 2.41 0.78 2.48

-6.36 -7.00 -2.77 -1.88 -2.78 -2.32 -5.24 -2.08 -3.77 -2.75 -3.14 -3.50

-6.57 -9.24 6.07 7.05 7.74 4.22 5.92 4.88 6.66 6.23 -0.28 6.09

YoY (%) Oct-13 Nov-13 2011 -2.85 -5.08 6.80 8.25 7.90 6.06 6.43 4.71 8.76 7.01 0.34 6.39

-11.20 -14.05 2.60 4.80 3.66 2.84 -0.87 0.49 2.85 2.83 -4.11 1.20

20.89 22.00 15.07 9.59 14.57 13.24 16.41 15.80 22.05 14.83 19.10 17.72

YTD (%) 2012

2013

12.20 12.52 10.81 10.10 12.04 9.05 9.41 10.07 13.16 10.75 12.80 9.95

-11.07 -14.06 3.55 4.24 3.87 2.90 3.60 5.23 4.91 3.72 -3.25 3.88

Source: Danareksa Estimates

15

NOVEMBER 2013

Appendix Appendix 3. Danareksa Bond Index - Nov 2013 Overview

Return

Total* Price Interest

Last 3mo

Total Return per Periode Last 6mo

Year to Date

Last 12mo

Last 24mo

(11.08) (13.05) (1.39) 0.55 (1.04) (0.37) (4.69) (1.07) (2.02) (1.28) (3.63) (2.76)

(11.76) (14.78) 3.04 4.31 3.91 3.45 (0.55) 4.47 3.24 3.30 (5.56) 2.73

(11.20) (14.05) 2.60 4.80 3.66 2.84 (0.87) 0.49 2.85 2.83 (4.11) 1.20

2.86 (0.15) 17.13 16.62 20.35 13.77 13.34 16.83 16.68 17.37 9.03 17.17

0.09 (1.48) 1.60 1.99 3.09 1.14 0.58 (1.60) (1.42) 1.61 0.72 0.23

22.16 17.38 27.07 26.79 30.27 19.69 27.68 23.56 42.71 26.38 (0.11) 25.99

3.01 0.93 4.85 5.88 7.26 3.50 3.95 1.16 3.70 5.31 (24.19) 3.50

11.04 7.39 15.29 17.23 17.68 10.41 14.69 7.40 19.11 15.66 (13.84) 12.50

17.62 15.24 34.11 21.36 33.48 36.01 28.22 36.76 21.47 34.26 30.82 34.56

(13.00) (15.12) 1.56 1.91 2.34 3.20 (1.58) 1.16 2.85 1.63 1.35 0.68

2.42 0.05 18.59 14.77 20.61 16.56 14.24 20.20 15.07 18.69 13.26 18.92

Broad Market Index (full maturity range)

Composit Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE

(6.36) (7.00) (2.77) (1.88) (2.78) (2.32) (5.24) (2.08) (3.77) (2.75) (3.14) (3.50)

(7.16) (7.81) (3.52) (2.56) (3.55) (3.03) (6.04) (2.92) (4.52) (3.50) (3.97) (4.28)

0.80 0.81 0.75 0.68 0.76 0.71 0.79 0.84 0.75 0.75 0.83 0.78

0.56 0.53 0.68 1.55 1.60 (0.21) (1.69) 0.10 0.22 0.78 (1.22) 0.71

Short-term Market Index (1 to 3 yrs)


(1.62) (1.57) (1.70) (1.48) (1.23) 0.18 (0.52) (1.47) (1.10) (1.72) (1.72) (1.61)

(2.36) (2.32) (2.43) (2.13) (1.95) (0.64) (1.30) (2.54) (1.91) (2.44) (2.01) (2.42)

0.74 0.75 0.72 0.65 0.72 0.82 0.79 1.06 0.81 0.72 0.29 0.81

1.73 1.97 1.39 1.58 2.70 1.85 2.31 (1.33) (0.15) 1.40 1.03 1.78

Mid-term Market Index (more than 3 yrs)


(7.04) (7.52) (3.32) (2.79) (3.42) (2.62) (6.51) (2.20) (4.37) (3.31) (3.46) (4.13)

(7.85) (8.34) (4.08) (3.52) (4.20) (3.32) (7.30) (3.00) (5.11) (4.07) (4.28) (4.90)

0.81 0.81 0.76 0.73 0.78 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.74 0.76 0.82 0.77

0.44 0.42 0.38 1.62 1.09 (0.37) (2.75) 0.73 0.18 0.51 (1.55) 0.55

(12.49) (13.89) (2.80) (3.03) (2.59) (0.44) (5.94) (0.59) (2.10) (2.69) (4.20) (3.53)

* Total return = price return + interest return

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Appendix Appendix 4. Key Characteristics of Domestic Bonds (base year: Dec-04=100)

Total Weighted Average Average Average Average Market Return Average Coupon Modified Term Convexity Value Index YTM (%) Duration (IDR bn)

Composite Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE


Weight Weight in Sub in Broad Index Market

All Maturity Market Index

270.33 259.64 303.16 284.25 267.30 294.20 285.19 329.54

8.90 8.73 9.96 9.51 9.95 9.57 10.15 10.36

9.41 9.42 9.40 8.57 9.59 9.37 10.08 11.09

3.40 6.04 2.64 2.04 2.85 2.88 2.94 3.10

5.08 11.38 3.27 2.36 3.62 3.50 3.87 4.00

15.72 816,402 38.16 693,733 9.26 122,669 5.58 26,197 10.56 48,319 10.32 6,002 11.92 9,590 11.81 9,987

100.00 84.97 15.03 21.36 39.39 4.89 7.82 8.14

100.00 84.97 15.03 3.21 5.92 0.74 1.17 1.22

318.50 301.16 270.14 316.54

10.27 9.90 11.29 9.79

9.24 9.29 10.43 9.82

3.01 2.60 3.03 3.00

3.70 3.20 3.93 3.85

10.89 8,800 9.06 116,869 11.22 5,800 11.76 35,966

7.17 95.27 4.73 29.32

1.08 14.32 0.71 4.41

Short-term Market Index (1 to 3 yrs) 248.56 218.23 301.31 313.44 286.54 235.98 325.47 245.53

8.36 7.49 7.49 9.30 9.67 8.96 8.99 13.62

9.34 9.98 9.29 8.36 9.25 10.58 10.55 13.43

1.61 1.44 1.62 1.61 1.71 1.68 1.21 1.61

1.80 1.63 1.82 1.78 1.93 1.93 1.33 1.93

3.55 102,174 3.76 60,802 3.53 41,373 3.49 18,084 3.83 14,041 4.28 652.00 2.19 2,025 3.68 1,703.10

100.00 59.51 40.49 43.71 33.94 1.58 4.89 4.12

100.00 59.51 40.49 17.70 13.74 0.64 1.98 1.67

281.68 291.06 226.58 263.47

10.70 9.79 11.29 10.36

9.95 9.18 11.67 9.90

2.03 1.63 1.44 1.67

2.34 1.83 1.63 1.90

4.89 1,621.00 3.57 40,583 2.75 790 3.74 8,979

3.92 98.09 1.91 21.70

1.59 39.72 0.77 8.79

Mid-term Market Index (more than 3yrs) Composit Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE

273.97 264.32 316.44 274.34 254.20 282.67 281.39 343.29

8.98 8.86 10.03 10.00 10.07 9.64 10.48 9.79

9.45 9.35 9.50 9.07 9.83 8.97 9.85 10.43

4.53 6.66 3.53 3.05 3.69 3.28 3.81 3.52

7.17 12.70 4.54 3.73 4.85 4.02 5.15 4.59

23.44 714,228 42.81 632,931 14.26 81,297 10.48 8,113 15.48 34,278 12.33 5,350 16.79 7,565 14.14 8,284

100.00 88.62 11.38 9.98 42.16 6.58 9.31 10.19

100.00 88.62 11.38 1.14 4.80 0.75 1.06 1.16

278.29 307.12 360.71 338.68

10.18 9.96 11.29 9.61

8.92 9.40 10.10 9.78

3.44 3.54 3.46 3.72

4.31 4.54 4.56 4.90

13.56 7,179.00 14.38 76,287 13.53 5,010 16.14 26,987

8.83 93.84 6.16 33.20

1.01 10.68 0.70 3.78

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RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research Fax No.

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Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet [email protected] ext. 3400 Credit Analysts Production & Database Management Amir A. Dalimunthe Eka Nuraini [email protected] ext. 3405 [email protected] ext. 3407 Ayesha Ardelia Market Analyst [email protected] ext. 3406 Rifki Rizal [email protected] Melissa Hartono [email protected] ext. 3402

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